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**Udog** · 01-02-2014, 09:09 AM

NFL Opening Line Report: Wild Card Weekend odds

A wild Week 17 made for an even wilder Wild Card Weekend in the NFL. That’s a whole lotta “wild”.

Those furious finishes have oddsmakers carefully plotting out the spreads and totals for the first four games of the NFL postseason. We talk with Peter Korner, founder of the Nevada-based odds service The Sports Club, about the opening odds for the NFL Wild Card Weekend matchups.

Kansas City Chiefs at Indianapolis Colts (-2.5, 46.5)

Indianapolis rolled into the postseason with three-straight wins, including a 23-7 victory over the Chiefs. Kansas City, on the other hand, went 2-5 down the stretch including a narrow loss to San Diego with all its starters in Nike sideline gear Sunday.

“I don’t think resting starters is a bad thing,” says Korner. “At this point in the season, one game won’t ruin momentum or slow down players from clicking. This line is based on the Colts current play. Indianapolis has shown very well recently and they’re coming on strong. We really like this number.”

New Orleans Saints at Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5, 54.5)

Football bettors should keep an eye on the weather for Saturday’s game at Lincoln Financial Field. The early forecast is calling for partly cloudy skies and temperatures in the high 20s, as of Monday morning. The Saints’ road woes are well documented – going 1-7 ATS away from New Orleans – and is the reason why the Eagles are favorites.

“This being an away game is the biggest factor here,” says Korner. “Philadelphia has the momentum going into this game but this being outdoors and with the possible elements, is keeping this spread from being on the New Orleans side.”

Korner says the weather could have an impact on not only the total but could give the Eagles the edge if the forecast does turn nasty.

“The Saints love to air it out while the Eagles are built more for the run,” he says. “If the weather turns inclement, then it’s defiantly conducive to what Philadelphia wants to do.”

San Diego Chargers at Cincinnati Bengals (-7, 46)

Korner and his stable of oddsmakers sent out a suggested spread of Bengals -6 for this Sunday game. However, books have upped that number as high as a touchdown with money coming in on the home side.

“We thought we’d keep it lower, being a competitive playoff game,” Korner says. “But that’s been driven up. I think anyone that wants to bet San Diego should wait it out and see if this spread goes higher to 7.5.”

San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers (+2.5, 48.5)

The Packers got into the postseason with a thrilling win over Chicago. Green Bay opened as a home underdog versus the San Francisco team picking up steam at the right time. The Niners have won six straight, going 4-2 ATS in that span.

“The difference here is the San Francisco defense,” says Korner. “This could be a letdown for Green Bay coming off that big win. Weather will be a factor in this one too.”

Korner says the total could see major adjustments depending on the forecast at Lambeau Field. There is a 25 percent chance of snow and temperatures are expected to dip into the low teens – a far cry from the warm weather in the Bay Area.

“The total is a little high for this one,” he says. “However, a few weeks back when we had all that sloppy weather, all the games went Over. I think that is still in the minds of bettors as we’re looking at weather playing a possible role in three of the four playoff games.”

**Udog** · 01-02-2014, 09:10 AM

NFL line watch: Bolts bettors should wait to charge

Spread to bet now

New Orleans Saints (+2.5) at Philadelphia Eagles

What you see is what you get with the early number in this one. Philadelphia opened up as a 2.5-point favorite and, with pretty much even wagering, that’s likely to hold firm. So if you’re waiting for this one to tip a half point either way, you most likely are out of luck.

As to the game, the spread seems to be too thin by about a point - especially considering that the Saints have not played one game this season in cold weather, which is invading the Northeast this week.

Did you think on Halloween night that the Eagles had a ghost of a chance of going 7-1 on the back nine? Only a defensive letdown in Minnesota sits between Philly and an eight-game winning streak. Andy Reid might still be in town if he had had more confidence in Nick Foles and less in Michael Vick.

Spread to wait on

San Diego Chargers (+7) at Cincinnati Bengals

Say what you want about Andy Dalton, but the kid is seventh in the league in passing yards and the Bengals have put up nearly 27 points a game (more than Seattle, San Francisco and Indianapolis) this season.

Just about a month ago the Bengals headed west and picked up a nice 17-10 win over San Diego in a defensive battle that was primarily played out between the 40 yard lines.

There has been decent early money on Cincinnati, even with the substantial line, but if the money gets serious come close to game time, they might be forced to either throw another half point more on the number.

San Diego backers, who like the way the Chargers have played on the road this season (wins at Denver, Kansas City and Philadelphia give the Bolts some significant street cred), could then swarm.

Total to watch

Kansas City Chiefs at Indianapolis Colts (46.5)

You can build a legitimate case for this one going Under based on the game that these teams played in Kansas City a little more than a week ago. The Colts’ defense put the hammer down on Kansas City’s offense, holding the Chiefs to just about 300 total yards.

But the Chiefs were crushed by turnovers in that game. Three fumbles were lost, and K.C. recovered three more of its own bobbles. Alex Smith also threw an interception.

All that won’t happen the second time around. The Chiefs should be fresh (most starters sat out the regular season finale) and figure to move the ball. Adjustments will be made and there should be some points scored in this one.

**Udog** · 01-02-2014, 09:10 AM

NFL weather report: An early look at Wild Card Weekend weather

Weather could play a role in three of the four NFL Wild Card Weekend games, with cold, rain and snow in the forecast for Saturday and Sunday.

Here’s a look at the early forecast for Philadelphia, Cincinnati and Green Bay.

New Orleans Saints at Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5, 54.5)

The early forecast for Philadelphia calls for partly cloudy skies and temperatures in the mid 20s with winds blowing SSW at 6mph from corner to corner. The Eagles have won four straight at home since the weather turned cold while the Saints have struggled in outdoor venues and average only 17.8 points per road game compared to an average of 34 points at home.

San Diego Chargers at Cincinnati Bengals (-7, 46)

The Chargers could take on the cold Ohio winter in Cincinnati Sunday. The extended forecast calls for a 46 percent chance of snow and rain with winds blowing SSW at 7 mph, cooling gametime temperatures in to mid 30s. The Bengals are a perfect 8-0 ATS at home while the Chargers 4-3-1 ATS on the road this season.

San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers (+2.5, 48.5)

The frozen tundra of Lambeau Field will make an appearance during the Wild Card Weekend, with temperatures in Green Bay expected to plummet into the low teens for this matchup. The forecast is also calling for 25 percent chance of snow and winds blowing NNW at 5 mph. The Packers were just 3-5 ATS as hosts while the Niners boast a 7-1 ATS mark on the road.

**Udog** · 01-02-2014, 09:10 AM

NFL Wildcard trends: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly

The Good, the Bad and the Ugly

Here’s a brief capsule of the teams and noteworthy trends:

Kansas City at Indianapolis (-2.5, 46.5)
Good: Chiefs coach Andy Reid 3-0 ATS away non-division playoff dog
Bad: Reid 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS last five games vs. the Colts
Ugly: Colts 0-3 SU and ATS last three playoff games

New Orleans at Philadelphia (-2.5, 53)
Good: Saints QB Drew Brees is 4-2 SU and ATS career vs. Philadelphia
Bad: Saints 3-5 SU and 1-7 ATS away this season, averaged 17.8 PPG
Ugly: Saints 0-5 SU and ATS all-time away in NFL playoffs

San Diego at Cincinnati (-7, 47)
Good: Bengals 4-0 SU and ATS off a win in this series
Bad: Chargers 2-9 ATS vs. AFC North last five years
Ugly: Bengals 0-5 SU and ATS last five playoff games

San Francisco at Green Bay (48, +2.5)
Good: Jim Harbaugh is 3-0 SU and ATS vs. Green Bay
Bad: Mike McCarthy is 5-8 SU and ATS as a home dog
Ugly: Super Bowl losers are 0-5 SU and 0-4-1 ATS away Game One playoffs

Home Field Disadvantage

Home cooking used to be a solid handicapping edge during the playoffs. Not so anymore.

For the longest time backing home teams in the NFL postseason has been a solid-moneymaker, going 172-120-6 (55.1%) dating back to 1980.

Today, however, that would be a mistake as the success of home teams in the playoffs has dissolved quicker than Alka Seltzer in a cold glass of water on New Year’s morning.

A closer look finds home teams just 119-107-5 ATS (51.%) since the 1990 season and, even worse, 64-66-1 ATS (49.2%) since 2000. Thus, like the economy, NFL playoff hosts have fallen on hard times.

Division Downers

Wild card road teams have a difficult time after dueling a division opponent in their season ending finale, going 21-43-1 ATS – including 1-7 ATS the last two years.

Send these highwaymen out as dogs of more than 3 points and the task worsens as they are 4-33 SU and 9-28 ATS.

Not a good sign for the Chargers this week.

ATS Diabetes

Like kids in a candy store, NFL Wild Card teams playing off huge regular season wins tend to crash-and-burn in these playoff openers.

Teams off a SU underdog win are just 11-25 SU and 13-22-1 ATS, including 3-15 SU and 4-14 ATS if the Over/Under total in today’s game is set at more than 41 points.

So long 49ers.

In a similar vein, teams suffer from more than a sugar rush In opening round playoff games if they managed to they beat the spread by 10 or points, going just 9-19-1 ATS when on the road during this round.

The Chiefs and the Saints could be up against it this weekend.

Stat of the Week

The straight-up winner in NFL opening round playoff games is 104-11-3 ATS since 1980.

**Udog** · 01-02-2014, 09:11 AM

NFL
Dunkel

Wild Card Weekend

New Orleans at Philadelphia
The Eagles host the Wild Card round against a New Orleans team that is 0-6 ATS in its last 6 road games. Philadelphia is the pick (-2 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Eagles favored by 5 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-2 1/2). Here are all of this week's picks.

SATURDAY, JANUARY 4

Game 101-102: Kansas City at Indianapolis (4:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City 132.537; Indianapolis 140.116
Dunkel Line: Indianapolis by 7 1/2; 42
Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 2 1/2; 46 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (-2 1/2); Under

Game 103-104: New Orleans at Philadelphia (8:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 134.432; Philadelphia 140.086
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 5 1/2; 57
Vegas Line: Philadelphia by 2 1/2; 53 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-2 1/2); Over

SUNDAY, JANUARY 5

Game 105-106: San Diego at Cincinnati (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego 138.817; Cincinnati 137.797
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 1; 43
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 7; 47
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+7); Under

Game 107-108: San Francisco at Green Bay (4:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco 140.597; Green Bay 140.991
Dunkel Line: Even; 51
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 3; 48
Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (+3); Over

NFL
Long Sheet

Wildcard Round

Saturday, January 4

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KANSAS CITY (11 - 5) at INDIANAPOLIS (11 - 5) - 1/4/2014, 4:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS CITY is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in playoff games since 1992.
INDIANAPOLIS is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in a home game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) in dome games over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in home games in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
KANSAS CITY is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in road games this season.
KANSAS CITY is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in road lined games this season.
KANSAS CITY is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANAPOLIS is 2-1 against the spread versus KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
INDIANAPOLIS is 2-1 straight up against KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NEW ORLEANS (11 - 5) at PHILADELPHIA (10 - 6) - 1/4/2014, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) in road games this season.
NEW ORLEANS is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) in road lined games this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 157-121 ATS (+23.9 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
PHILADELPHIA is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 1-0 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 1-0 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Sunday, January 5

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SAN DIEGO (9 - 7) at CINCINNATI (11 - 5) - 1/5/2014, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons.
CINCINNATI is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in home games this season.
CINCINNATI is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in home lined games this season.
CINCINNATI is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in home games against conference opponents this season.
CINCINNATI is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
CINCINNATI is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in games played on turf this season.
SAN DIEGO is 39-23 ATS (+13.7 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CINCINNATI is 2-0 against the spread versus SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons
CINCINNATI is 2-0 straight up against SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SAN FRANCISCO (12 - 4) at GREEN BAY (8 - 7 - 1) - 1/5/2014, 4:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 155-114 ATS (+29.6 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 59-36 ATS (+19.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
SAN FRANCISCO is 34-18 ATS (+14.2 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 34-18 ATS (+14.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in road lined games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 24-11 ATS (+11.9 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN FRANCISCO is 3-0 against the spread versus GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
SAN FRANCISCO is 3-0 straight up against GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
3 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NFL
Short Sheet

Wildcard Round

Saturday, January 4

Kansas City at Indianapolis, 4:35 ET
Kansas City: 1-9 ATS in playoff games
Indianapolis: 12-4 ATS in home games in games played on turf

New Orleans at Philadelphia, 8:10 ET
New Orleans: 15-5 ATS in road games after allowing 17 points or less in 2 games
Philadelphia: 3-12 ATS in home games in games played on a grass field

Sunday, January 5

San Diego at Cincinnati, 1:05 ET
San Diego: 2-11 ATS off 1 or more straight overs
Cincinnati: 6-0 ATS in home games against conference opponents

San Francisco at Green Bay, 4:40 ET
San Francisco: 8-1 ATS as a road favorite of 7 points or less
Green Bay: 1-5 ATS after allowing 25 points or more in 2 straight games

NFL

Wildcard Round

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Trend Report
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Saturday, January 4

4:35 PM
KANSAS CITY vs. INDIANAPOLIS
Kansas City is 2-12 SU in its last 14 games when playing Indianapolis
Kansas City is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games on the road
Indianapolis is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Indianapolis's last 5 games

8:10 PM
NEW ORLEANS vs. PHILADELPHIA
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New Orleans's last 5 games on the road
New Orleans is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Philadelphia is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
Philadelphia is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home

Sunday, January 5

1:05 PM
SAN DIEGO vs. CINCINNATI
San Diego is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of San Diego's last 12 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 5 games when playing at home against San Diego
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Cincinnati's last 8 games when playing San Diego

4:40 PM
SAN FRANCISCO vs. GREEN BAY
San Francisco is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
San Francisco is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Green Bay
Green Bay19-5-1 SU in its last 25 games at home
Green Bay is 3-5-1 SU in its last 9 games

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**Udog** · 01-03-2014, 09:52 AM

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Wild Card Round

Chiefs (11-5) @ Colts (11-5)—Chiefs won 23-13 (-4.5) at Buffalo in Week 9 in only game this season on artificial turf, when they were outgained 470-210 but scored two defensive TDs to turn tide in game they had no right winning; after starting season 9-0, Chiefs went 2-5 down stretch, losing to Broncos/Chargers twice each. Colts coasted to title in weak division; they beat Denver/Seattle at home, won at Candlestick but also lost 38-8 at home to Rams- go figure. Indy was +10 in turnovers in its last five games; they got bounced from playoffs in this round LY, while Reid/Chiefs combined to go 6-26- now Reid is Coach of Year in KC. Chiefs rested 20 starters last week and still almost KO’d Chargers from playoffs, week after Indy waxed Chiefs 23-7, holding KC to 132 passing yards with +4 turnover ratio (Chiefs were +22 in other 15 games). AFC #4 seed covered five of last seven when favored in this game. Five of last six Chief games, five of last seven Indy home games went over total. Curious to see if sitting 20 starters last week gives Chief players fresher legs.

Saints (11-5) @ Eagles (10-6)—New Orleans has never won a road playoff game (0-5) in franchise history; this year on road, Saints are 3-5 SU, 1-7 ATS, losing four of last five, with losses to also-ran Rams/Jets. NO scored 17 or less points in last four away games, while they averaged 34 ppg in Superdome; they do have edge at QB, with Super Bowl-winner Brees vs first-year starter Foles, who played college ball in desert (Arizona), but has had great year under rookie NFL coach Kelly. Eagles had long home losing streak until they beat Redskins in Week 11; now they’ve won four home games in row, scoring 64 points in second half of last two games at Linc. Philly led NFL in rushing yards which is big in night game in frigid condition; Saints are #19 in rush defense. Iggles were -2 in turnovers during 3-5 start to season; they were +13 during 7-1 run to division title. Saints have to play significantly better here than they have on road all year in order to advance. NFC #4 seed beat #5 seed in this game four of last five years. Six of last seven Saint games stayed under total; the of last four Philly games went over.

Chargers (9-7) @ Bengals (11-5)—Hard to believe, but this is Chargers’ first game on artificial turf this season. Cincy won/covered all eight home games, which is hard to do, even covering last week when they had AFC North wrapped up; Bengals scored 34+ points in each of last five home games- they’re in playoffs for 3rd year in row but this is their first home playoff tilt since ’09. Lewis has done great job here, but hasn’t won playoff game; he has SoCal team visiting in frigid weather here- this is his best chance to get a postseason win. San Diego was 5-7 after bland 17-10 home loss to Cincy in Week 13, when Bengals gained 250 yards in second half, outrushed Chargers 164-91; Bolts then won last four games, upsetting Broncos on a Thursday night in Denver, beating two also-rans, then getting help from refs late in last week’s OT win over Chief team that sat 20 of 22 starters. San Diego has edge in QB, always a help. AFC #3 seed is 8-4 in this game over last 12 years. Five of last six Cincinnati games went over the total; five of Chargers’ last seven road games stayed under.

49ers (12-4) @ Packers (8-7-1)—Since 2001, road teams favored in this round are 7-3 vs spread. Tough for California team to come east and play in bitter cold, which is forecast for this game. Rodgers returned after 8-week absence last week and led magical last-minute comeback over rival Bears to win division; Green Bay was 2-5-1 in his absence, with both wins by a point, including win at Dallas when they trailed 26-3 at half. 49ers won last five games to get here; they scored 9 or less points in three of four losses, not scoring a TD in second half in three of those games. SF was -6 in turnovers in their four losses, +18 in wins. Niners are 6-2 on road, 5-0 as home favorites this season. Green Bay is 6-2 this season when Rodgers starts, 3-0 at home, winning by 18-13-18 points. Pack opened season with 34-28 (+4) loss at Candlestick, when Niners gained 309 yards in second half, pulling away from 14-all halftime tie. #4 seed in NFC beat 5-seed four of last five years. This is 7th time these have met in playoffs since ’95. 49ers are better team from best division in NFL, but elements work against them here.

**Udog** · 01-03-2014, 09:56 AM

NFL mid-week line moves: Wild Card Weekend action report

Kansas City Chiefs at Indianapolis Colts – Open: -1, Move: -2.5

Some markets opened the Colts as slight 1-point home favorites while others reacted to the early movement and opened Indianapolis at -2.5. According to Perry, 60 percent of the action is currently riding on the home side, including early money from wiseguys.

“Less than 15 minutes after we opened, we got a sharp bet on Colts -1.5, so moved to current number of -2.5,” says Perry.

The total for this AFC Wild Card Game has come down half a point from 46.5 to 46.

New Orleans Saints at Philadelphia Eagles – Open: -3, Move: -2.5

The Eagles opened as high as 3-point home favorites over the Saints, who have notoriously been two-faced away from New Orleans. Most books are dealing Philadelphia -2.5 which has drawn solid two-way money as we hit the mid-week mark.

“We don’t anticipate us moving off this number, as we are pretty much split down middle on game,” says Perry. “Fifty-two percent of the money is on the Saints.”

The total for this NFC Wild Card matchup has come down as many as two points at some books, trimmed from 55 to 53 points. The Saints average only 17.4 points on the road and the forecast in Philadelphia is calling for temperatures in the mid 20s and partly cloudy skies.

San Diego Chargers at Cincinnati Bengals – Open: -7.5, Move: -6.5, Move: -7

This line has been on both sides of the key of a touchdown at some markets, with sharp money influencing the adjustments just minutes after odds opened Sunday night.

“A sharp bet came on the dog about 30 minutes after we opened, so we’re now using Cincy -7,” says Perry. “Sixty percent of the money is on San Diego.”

The total has climbed from 46 to 47 points. The Bolts and Bengals played Under the total of 48.5 points in San Diego during Week 13. Cincinnati was one of the better Over plays at 10-5-1 O/U during the regular season.

San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers – Open: +2.5, Move: +3

The Packers opened as 2.5-point home underdogs and jumped to a field goal at some books, before action pushed the spread back to the opener at some markets. These teams met in Week 1, with San Francisco winning 34-28 as a 5-point favorite. The Niners have covered in three straight meetings with the Packers.

“We got a wiseguy bet on San Francisco about an hour after opening, so we moved to -3,” says Perry. “Looks like this will be our biggest decision on Wild Card Weekend, as 73 percent of the money is on the 49ers. Also, don’t expect us to move off -3, as that is such an important number in regards to betting.”

The total for this NFC Wild Card Game has come down from as high as 49 points to 46.5. Weather in Lambeau Field is expected to be chilly, with temperatures dipping into the mid teens and winds blowing WNW at speeds close to 20 mph.

**Udog** · 01-03-2014, 09:58 AM

NFL Wild Card betting preview: Hot bets and moving odds

All odds current as of noon ET, Jan. 2

Saturday, Jan. 4

Kansas City Chiefs at Indianapolis Colts (-2.5, 46.5)

The Colts have been a tough team to figure out all season. After opening the year with four wins in their first five games, they’ve struggled with consistency. That sort of thing tends to happen when you lose No. 1 wideout Reggie Wayne and don’t have any running game to speak of even after trading for Trent Richardson. Still, Indy finished 10-6 against the spread and has character wins over Denver, Seattle, and Kansas City on the resume. Meanwhile, KC has been up and down since starting the year 9-0. Since their Week 10 bye, the Chiefs have just two wins over lowly Washington and Oakland.

Where the action is: This line is holding at -2.5 with about 61 percent of Sports Interaction’s bets coming in on the visiting Kansas City Chiefs.

New Orleans Saints at Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5, 53.5)

We all know the Saints are a much different team away from the Superdome and that’s all anyone wants to talk about right now. They were 8-0 at home but just 3-5 on the road, so that makes sense. These Eagles deserve some attention too though. They have won seven of their last eight games while Nick Foles finished the year with 22 touchdowns and only four interceptions. With two of the most high-profile attacks on display here, we opened with a 55-point total. That has currently dropped to 53.5 points.

Where the action is: Saints bettors are all over this line. New Orleans bettors make up 65 percent of Sports Interaction’s handle as of noon Thursday.

Sunday, Jan. 3

San Diego Chargers at Cincinnati Bengals (-7, 47)

Home-field advantage looks to be huge in this matchup. The Bengals haven’t lost at Paul Brown Stadium this year and average 42 points in their last five home games. They also finished the season by covering four of their last five pointspreads and are riding a 4-0 streak against the number in their last for meetings with San Diego. The Chargers have shifted to more of a run-heavy attack behind Ryan Mathews, which should help if Mother Nature comes into play.

Where the action is: The current total of 47 is up a half point from the open, but the pointspread is holding firm at -7. About 53 percent of our bettors are currently backing the Bengals at home.

San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers (+3, 47)

The Packers squeaked by the Bears to earn a playoff berth last week, but that didn’t impress many. Green Bay opened as a 2.5-point underdog at home but is already up to +3. The total has dropped two full points since debuting at 49 and weather could be a factor in this matchup as well. The 49ers have won and covered in each of their last four meetings with Green Bay.

Where the action is: The 49ers are this week’s most popular bet with about 71 percent of our action coming in on San Francisco.

**Udog** · 01-03-2014, 10:00 AM

Capping NFL rematches: What to keep, throw away this Wild Card Weekend

The NFL Wild Card Weekend features three rematches from the regular season, with the Chiefs taking on the Colts, the Chargers facing the Bengals, and the 49ers clashing with the Packers.

The playoffs are a completely different beast than the regular season but there are lessons learned from those previous meetings that can help NFL bettors cash in during the postseason rematches. We break down those first encounters and tell you what you should keep and throw away from those games:

Kansas City Chiefs at Indianapolis Colts (Pick, 46)

Original meeting: 23-7 Colts (Week 16)

What to keep: The Kansas City Chiefs were solid on defense against the Colts despite allowing Andrew Luck to pass fo4 241 yards. Kansas City allowed just 23 points in a game in which they were saddled with terrible field position thanks to a string of turnovers. Expect similarly solid defense from the Chiefs after resting the majority of their starters during Week 17.

What to throw away: It’s unlikely that the Chiefs will turn the ball over four times again this weekend. Kansas City ranked first in the AFC in turnover margin, giving away the ball only 18 times while forcing a total of 36 turnovers – 21 INTs and 15 fumbles – on the year. The Chiefs boast a +1.1 turnover margin per game – second best in the NFL.

San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers (2.5, 46.5)

Original meeting: 34-28 49ers (Week 1)

What to keep: Packers RB Eddie Lacy and 49ers RB Frank Gore each found the end zone in Week 1, posting near identical numbers. Lacy amassed 41 yards on 14 carries and added 31 yards receiving off a catch-and-run, while Gore totaled 44 yards on 21 touches while reeling in two passes for 21 yards. With wind expected to plague the passing game, each team could give the other a healthy dose of these two downhill runners.

What to throw away: Aaron Rodgers and Colin Kaepernick combined to pass for 745 yards on 48-for-76 passing in Week 1, each connecting for three TDs through the air. Rodgers is working his way back into game shape after missing extended time with a collarbone injury and Kaepernick hasn’t been able to repeat those Week 1 numbers, plagued by sporadic performances all season. The forecast in Lambeau Field is calling for chilly temperatures and winds getting up around 20 mph, so another air show from these two QBs is unlikely.

San Diego Chargers at Cincinnati Bengals (-7, 47)

Previous meeting: 17-10 Bengals (Week 13)

What to keep: The Bengals held the Chargers offense to just 10 points and limited San Diego QB Philip Rivers to only 252 yards passing while forcing a costly interception on Dec. 1. Cincinnati was able to sack Rivers twice and keep things close after Bengals QB Andy Dalton struggled in the first half, giving Cincy a shot at winning the game in the final 30 minutes. The Bengals ranked fifth against the pass this season, allowing only 209 passing yards against per game, and ranked fourth in the AFC with 43 sacks.

What to throw away: Home-field advantage will not be had by the Chargers this weekend as they go from temperate San Diego to a chilly Paul Brown Stadium, where Cincinnati has yet to lose. The Chargers were .500 away from home this season, finishing 4-4 (4-3-1 ATS). If the Chargers want to keep their improbable winter run going forward, they will have to end the Bengals’ undefeated home record.

**Udog** · 01-04-2014, 07:17 AM

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Wild Card Weekend

Kansas City Chiefs at Indianapolis Colts (-2.5, 46.5)

Chiefs’ lack of pass rush vs. Colts’ healthy offensive line

Kansas City’s defense was one of the most feared pass rushes in the NFL, totaling 47 sacks in the regular season – third most in the AFC for an average of three sacks per game. However, over the last three games, the Chiefs pass rush is missing some teeth, registering a total of only four QB kills. Kansas City managed to get to Andrew Luck only once in its 23-7 loss to the Colts at home in Week 16.

Indianapolis has struggled to keep Luck clean this year but is getting bodies back on the offensive line and is as healthy up front as it's been all season. The Colts have watched their QB get sacked just three times in the past three games. That’s allowed Luck to complete 67.27 percent of his passes and connect for four TDs with zero INTs in that span. Indianapolis is picking up the tempo under this renewed protection, running 70.3 plays per game in that three game stretch, compared to its season average of 63.9 plays per game.

New Orleans Saints at Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5, 53.5)

Saints’ TE Jimmy Graham vs. Eagles’ poor pass defense

The Saints’ struggles on the road are well documented. New Orleans musters just over 17 points per road game compared to 34 points at home and finished a dismal 1-7 ATS away from the Big Easy. New Orleans takes on an offense as explosive as its own Saturday and could look to shorten its strikes and chew up the clock, beating up an Eagles defense that allows 289.8 yards passing per game –worst in the NFL.

In order to do so, the Saints will need a hefty dose of All-Pro tight end Jimmy Graham, who led the league with 16 touchdown catches and averaged more than 14 yards per reception. According to Yahoo!Sports, Philadelphia has been beaten bad by tight ends in its last two games. Chicago TE Martellus Bennett reeled in five balls for 85 yards in Week 16 and Dallas TE Jason Witten caught 12 passes for 135 yards in the season finale. Graham had 72 yards on eight receptions and a TD in a 28-12 win over the Eagles last November.

San Diego Chargers at Cincinnati Bengals (-7, 47)

Chargers' up-tempo attack vs. Bengals’ turf surface

It’s crazy to think, with all the artificial surfaces around the NFL, that the Chargers will be playing their first game of the season on turf in Cincinnati this weekend. San Diego hasn’t touched a plastic blade of grass all year – including the preseason – with all 10 road games taking place on the real deal. Now, the Bolts hit the fast track at Paul Brown Stadium where the forecast is warming up as gametime inches closer.

San Diego first-year head coach Mike McCoy has preached speed, speed and speed all season, turning up the intensity on both sides of the ball. The Bolts run an average of 66.2 plays per game and have upped that pace in the last three, posting 68.3 plays per outing in that span. The Bengals don’t care for that kind of track meet, allowing opponents to run an average of 58.7 plays over their last three games, and now must slow down a speedy San Diego team getting a boost from the non-slip surface in Cincy.

San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers (+2.5, 47.5)

Niners’ poor pass defense vs. Packers’ resurgence under Rodgers

The 49ers appear to be the hottest team heading into the postseason with six straight wins. However, last year’s NFC champs have a major chink in the armor heading into the Wild Card Weekend. San Francisco, which ranked ninth versus the pass (222.8 yards per game), has been watching opponents go over the top the past two games, allowing a total of 740 passing yards against the Falcons and Cardinals. On top of that, standout CB Carlos Rogers is hobbled by hamstring injury, leaving Eric Wright to shoulder the load in the secondary.

The return of Aaron Rodgers instantly boosts Green Bay back into the Super Bowl conversation. The Packers found balance behind RB Eddie Lacy when Rodgers was sidelined with a broken collarbone and now have a potent two-pronged attack with No. 12 back under center. Rodgers threw for 318 yards in the win-and-in showdown with the Bears and reconnected with deep threat Randall Cobb for the go-ahead score. Cobb’s return also gives the Cheese Heads depth in the passing and special teams gameplan.

**Udog** · 01-04-2014, 07:26 AM

NFL injury report: Four injuries undervalued by oddsmakers

With playoff football kicking off this weekend, a few teams bitten by the injury bug are struggling to get their star players healthy to compete. Some players are coming off a week's rest while others return from injury hoping to make a big splash. Here are some notable injuries that may have an impact on the scoreboard.

AFC Wild Card

Eddie Royal, WR, San Diego Chargers (Toe, Questionable)

The Chargers are fourth in passing yards with an average of 270.5 per game. Royal leads the Chargers in touchdowns with eight and has 47 receptions on the year. Of the Chargers’ 41 total touchdowns, over two thirds have come through the air. San Diego travels to Cincinnati facing a Bengals team ranked fifth against the pass, allowing an average of only 209 yards. The Bengals lead the league in defensive touchdowns (7) and have 20 interceptions. The Chargers need all hands on deck to defeat the Bengals on the road.

San Diego is a 6.5-point road underdog against the Bengals. The total is 46.5.

Tamba Hali, OLB, Kansas City Chiefs (Knee, Questionable)

The Chiefs defense is allowing an average of only 19.1 points per game. Part of that success has been linebacker Hali, who has 46 combined tackles, 11 sacks and leads the team in forced fumbles (4). Fellow LB Justin Houston, who has 41 tackles and 11 sacks, is expected to return from an elbow injury. Only two quarterbacks have taken more hits than Andrew Luck this season and the status of the Chiefs’ top pass rushers will play a huge factor.

The Chiefs are 1.5-point road underdogs against the Colts. The total is 46.

NFC Wild Card

Pierre Thomas, RB, New Orleans Saints (Chest, Questionable)

The Saints are ranked 25th in rushing yards and 23rd in rushing touchdowns with 10. Despite the Saints not showing much success on the ground, Thomas leads them in attempts, yards, and is second in rushing touchdowns (Drew Brees leads the team). The Saints have been successful converting third-down attempts (44%) and are 47 percent when going for it on fourth down. New Orleans may find themselves in trouble in short-yardage situations if Thomas is forced to watch from the sidelines.

The Saints are 2.5-point road underdogs against Philadelphia. The total is 54.

Clay Matthews, OLB, Green Bay Packers (Thumb, Out)

Through 11 games played, Matthews has 41 and is Green Bay's leading pass rusher with 7.5 sacks. Matthews is tied for the team lead in forced fumbles (3) with LB Nick Perry, who also did not participate in practice and is questionable for Sunday's game against the 49ers. The Packers host a 49ers team that has found success rushing the ball, averaging 137.6 yards per game – third in the NFL. While Matthews is undisputedly a key to the Packers defense, Green Bay is 4-1 in his absence.

The Packers are 2.5-point home underdogs against the 49ers. The total is 46.5.

**Udog** · 01-04-2014, 07:31 AM

NFL

Saturday, January 4

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Chiefs at Colts: What bettors need to know
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Kansas City Chiefs at Indianapolis Colts (Pick'em, 46)

Andrew Luck and Indianapolis Colts closed the season with three consecutive lopsided victories, including a 23-7 romp in Kansas City, and now have the luxury of home-field advantage when they host the Chiefs on Saturday in the AFC wild-card round. The Colts allowed a staggering 82 points in road losses to Arizona and Cincinnati before sinking the Chiefs, part of a three-game run that has seen them outscore the opposition 78-20. Indianapolis has dominated the series, winning five of the last six.

Unlike the Colts, Kansas City wobbled down the stretch, losing five of its last seven games after opening the season with nine straight wins and leading the league in points allowed. The Chiefs, seeking their first postseason victory since Joe Montana was under center in 1994, committed an uncharacteristic four turnovers in the loss to the Colts on Dec. 22. "They've got the upper hand on us right now because in their minds they think they can beat us," Kansas City linebacker Derrick Johnson said after last month's loss.

TV: 4:35 p.m. ET, NBC.

LINE: The Colts opened at -2.5, but have been bet all the way to a pick'em. The total has moved down slightly from 46.5 to 46.

WEATHER: N/A.

ABOUT THE CHIEFS (11-5, 9-7 ATS): There remains uncertainty whether leading wide receiver Dwayne Bowe will be cleared to play after suffering a concussion, but that won't alter the game plan for quarterback Alex Smith and Kansas City. The Chiefs will feature a heavy dose of running back Jamaal Charles, who led the AFC with 1,287 rushing yards and 12 touchdowns while hauling in a team-high 70 receptions and seven scoring passes. "We called him public enemy No. 1," Colts coach Chuck Pagano said. "If he doesn't touch the ball 30 times, I'd be shocked." After resting most of the starters in last week's loss at San Diego, the Chiefs are expecting the return of linebacker Justin Houston, who tied for the team sack lead (11) with Tamba Hali despite missing the last five games with a dislocated elbow.

ABOUT THE COLTS (11-5, 10-6 ATS): Indianapolis' offense went sideways when Luck lost his favorite target, Reggie Wayne, to a season-ending knee injury in Week 7. After a stretch of uneven performances, Luck has established a chemistry with young wideouts T.Y. Hilton, Griff Whalen and Da'Rick Rogers, throwing for eight touchdowns and one interception over the final four weeks. Hilton has emerged as a go-to receiver in his second season, hauling in 24 passes during the three-game win streak to finish with 82 on the season. Donald Brown has helped ease the sting of the trade for running back Trent Richardson by averaging 5.3 yards per carry and scoring six rushing TDs - two against the Chiefs. Robert Mathis, who had a league-high 19.5 sacks, heads a defense that yielded two TDs in the final three games

TRENDS:

* Under is 5-1 in the last six meetings.
* Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings in Indianapolis.
* Chiefs are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 meetings.
* Road team is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Smith had 11 TD passes versus one interception on the road as the Chiefs tied Miami (2008) and Indianapolis (2012) for the most wins by a team with two or fewer victories the previous season.

2. Luck's 13 home wins in his first two seasons ties him with Atlanta's Matt Ryan for the second most in the Super Bowl era.

3. Kansas City has averaged only 9.4 points in its last five losses to Indianapolis.

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NFL

Saturday, January 4

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Tale of the Tape: Kansas City Chiefs at Indianapolis Colts
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The Kansas City Chiefs look to extend an amazing bounceback season as they visit the Indianapolis Colts in an AFC wild-card showdown Saturday afternoon.

The Chiefs, who won just two games a season ago, got off to a 9-0 start before running out of steam down the stretch. They'll face a Colts team that rolled to the NFC South championship and has caught fire at the right time with three straight victories to end the regular season.

Here's the breakdown in our betting Tale of the Tape:

Offense

The Kansas City pass attack was predictably conservative behind quarterback Alex Smith, ranking 24th in yards (3,340) but with 24 touchdowns against just eight interceptions - tied with San Francisco for the fewest in the league. The Chiefs' offensive line surrendered 41 sacks totaling 221 yards. The rushing game was far more potent, with superstar Jamaal Charles pacing an attack that ranked 10th in yards (2,056) and racked up 17 touchdowns.

Colts quarterback Andrew Luck stagnated in his second NFL season, a development due at least in some part to a season-ending leg injury to All-Pro receiver Reggie Wayne. Luck threw for 550 yards fewer than he had in his sensational rookie campaign, though he did match his 2012 touchdown total (23) while throwing just nine interceptions - nine fewer than the previous year. The Colts rush attack finished 21st in yards per game (108.9) with 15 touchdowns.

Edge: Indianapolis

Defense

The Chiefs rode the league's stoutest defense to a season-opening nine-game winning streak, but the unit had its share of struggles in the second half of the season. Kansas City allowed the seventh-most passing yards in the league (3,962) while surrendering 25 touchdowns, but it did snag 21 interceptions - good for third in the NFL. The Chiefs were 22nd in rushing yards allowed (1,923) but was strong in the end zone, giving up just nine TDs on the ground.

The Colts' pass defense performed well for most of the season, allowing the 11th-fewest yards (3,711) with 21 touchdowns and 15 interceptions. Indianapolis has compiled 42 sacks for 248 yards, led by standout defensive end Robert Mathis (league-best 19 1/2 sacks). The Colts have struggled with the run defense, getting torched for just over 2,000 yards on the ground - the seventh-highest tally in the league - on 4 1/2 yards per carry with 14 scores against.

Edge: Kansas City

Special Teams

The Chiefs' return team was the best in football during the regular season, leading the NFL in average kickoff return (29.9) and sixth in punt return average (11.8) with four total return touchdowns. Kansas City allowed 24.4 yards per kickoff return - the 11th-highest tally in the league - but limited opponents to just 6.5 yards per punt return. Kicker Ryan Succop had a rough season, connecting on just 22 of 28 field-goal attempts - including 1-of-4 from 50 yards or more.

The Colts enjoyed a productive season in the return game, ranking 14th in the NFL in both kickoff return average (23.5) and punt return average (9.9). Indianapolis wasn't as effective when it came to special teams defense, allowing the sixth-highest kickoff return average (25.2) while ranking second-last in punt-return yards allowed per attempt (13.7). Kicker Adam Vinatieri had a terrific season, converting 35 of 40 field-goal opportunities on the season.

Edge: Kansas City

Notable Quotable

"I'm ready to go. Games like this ... big-time players make big-time plays, and there are games I mostly show up in ... everything on the line and great preparations all week. It's win or go home." - Chiefs WR Dwayne Bowe

"It was a lot of guys who are older and that are in the position of being a leader to speak up. Actually, anybody that wanted to say anything, the floor was open. We got good results from it." - Mathis on the Colts' player-only meeting after a Week 12 loss to Arizona; the Colts went 4-1 the rest of the way

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**Udog** · 01-04-2014, 07:34 AM

NFL

Saturday, January 4

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Saints at Eagles: What bettors need to know
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New Orleans Saints at Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5, 53.5)

The New Orleans Saints have dominated opponents at home this season, but the road has been a different story for Drew Brees and company. The sixth-seeded Saints take aim at the first road playoff win in franchise history Saturday night when they visit the third-seeded Philadelphia Eagles, who enter this matchup as one of the hottest teams in the postseason. There likely will be no shortage of points, as the Eagles (second) and Saints (fourth) are among the league leaders in total offense while featuring some of the NFL's top skill-position players - Brees and Saints tight end Jimmy Graham, and the Eagles' duo of quarterback Nick Foles and running back LeSean McCoy, just to name a few.

New Orleans had lost three of four before routing Tampa Bay 42-17 last week - a win that improved the Saints to 8-0 at home compared to their 3-5 record on the road. The Eagles, meanwhile, had lost 10 straight home games before winning their final four contests at Lincoln Financial Field, but first-year coach Chip Kelly knows that while the Saints present a much tougher challenge, the focus remains the same. "You can't be like, ‘Oh my God, now we are in the playoffs and we've got to do this,'" said Kelly. "I think that's really not our mindset. It's, we have got a really, really good Saints team coming in here and we have to prepare the heck out of our guys and play a big game on Saturday night."

TV: 8:10 p.m. ET, NBC.

LINE: The Eagles have held steady as 2.5-point faves. The total opened at 54.5 and has moved down to 53.5.

WEATHER: It should be clear with temperatures in the mid 20s.

ABOUT THE SAINTS (11-5, 8-8 ATS): Brees, who was second in the NFL in passing yards (5,162) and touchdowns (39), believes that New Orleans is capable of winning three straight on the road in the playoffs after losing its final three road games of the regular season. "Absolutely," Brees said after the win against Tampa Bay. "We are good enough to do whatever we set out to do. I think today was a great step in the right direction to get ready for this playoff run." The Saints' defense is much improved from years past, as they allowed the second-fewest passing yards in the league (194.1) and surrendered 20 points or fewer 12 times, although they were the only NFL team without a defensive touchdown in 2013.

ABOUT THE EAGLES (10-6, 8-8 ATS): Philadelphia rebounded from a 3-5 start to win seven of its last eight games, thanks in large part to the steady play of Foles (27 TDs, two INTs, NFL-best 119.2 passer rating) and McCoy, who led the league with a franchise-record 1,607 rushing yards. Kelly's offense had 98 plays of at least 20 yards this season - the most since the Elias Sports Bureau began tracking the stat in 1995 - with DeSean Jackson (career highs of 82 catches for 1,332 yards) leading the way through the air. The NFC East champions must find some way to slow Graham, who paced the NFL with 16 touchdown catches, particularly given their history of struggling with opposing tight ends, including the Cowboys' Jason Witten (12 catches, 135 yards last week).

TRENDS:

* Over is 5-1 in the last six meetings.
* Saints are 0-6 ATS in their last six road games.
* Eagles are 1-5 ATS in their last six games in January.
* Under is 6-0-1 in Eagles last seven playoff home games.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Only one team in the NFL (Seattle) created more turnovers than Philadelphia this season. The Eagles forced 31 turnovers - 19 interceptions and 12 fumbles - including three turnovers in their season-ending, do-or-die win at Dallas.

2. The game-time temperature could be in the 20's, but Saints running back Pierre Thomas isn't concerned. “I’m not worried about the cold,” said Thomas, who led the team with 549 rushing yards. “Actually, out there playing, I’m sweating so much my body’s overheating, I kind of need that cool air to cool me down.”

3. Since the NFL expanded to a 12-team playoff format in 1990, a No. 6 seed has made it to the Super Bowl only twice - the 2005 Pittsburgh Steelers and the 2010 Green Bay Packers, both of whom won it all.

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NFL

Saturday, January 4

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Tale of the Tape: New Orleans Saints at Philadelphia Eagles
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There should be no shortage of offensive fireworks Saturday night when the New Orleans Saints visit the Philadelphia Eagles in an NFC wild-card playoff showdown.

The Saints roll into the postseason as the sixth seed despite posting an impressive 11-5 record fueled by Drew Brees' passing prowess and a stingy defense. That unit will be put to the test against an Eagles offensive attack that ranked among the league elite.

Here's the breakdown in our betting tale of the tape:

Offense

With Brees still operating like one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time, the Saints once again boasted a top-5 passing offense. New Orleans ranked second in the NFL at 307.4 passing yards per game, while racking up 39 touchdowns and throwing just 12 interceptions. The bloated passing numbers once again came at the expense of the rush attack, which finished 25th in the league in yards per game (92.1) on 3.8 yards per carry but did compile 10 touchdowns.

There were questions coming into the season about how Chip Kelly's offensive wizardry would carry over from college to the pros. Nobody is asking those questions anymore: Kelly oversaw an Eagles passing game that exploded under quarterback Nick Foles, racking up the ninth-most yards (4,110) with 32 TDs and just nine interceptions. The running game was even more impressive, leading the NFL in yards (2,566) behind rushing champion LeSean McCoy.

Edge: Philadelphia

Defense

The Saints haven't been known as a defensive juggernaut in recent years, but that changed in a big way this season. Only the Seattle Seahawks permitted more passing yards than New Orleans (3,105), which limited the opposition to 20 passing touchdowns while nabbing 12 interceptions and racking up 49 sacks. The Saints weren't nearly as effective in run defense, allowing 1,786 yards on 4.5 per carry, but gave up just 11 scores on the ground.

The effectiveness of the Philadelphia offense was negated somewhat by a truly porous pass defense. The Eagles surrendered the most passing yards in the NFL (4,636), allowing 25 touchdowns while racking up 19 interceptions and 34 sacks. Philadelphia had an easier time defending opposing running games, giving up the 10th-fewest yards on the ground (1,671 on 3.8 per carry) while limiting teams to 10 touchdowns and forcing a league-high 15 fumbles.

Edge: New Orleans

Special Teams

The Saints have averaged 23 yards per kickoff attempt - ranked 17th in the league - but have managed a paltry 6.1 yards on 32 punt returns, one of the worst rates in the NFL. That puts New Orleans behind in both categories, as it surrenders 25.2 yards per kickoff return and 7.5 yards per punt return. Veteran kicker Shayne Graham, taking over for the struggling Garrett Hartley, hasn't been busy over two weeks of action but has made both of his field-goal chances.

Philadelphia's return game has been one of the lone weak spots of the NFC East champions, averaging just 21.4 yards per kickoff return attempt and 6.6 yards per punt return try. The return defense has been even worse, allowing 23.6 yards per kickoff return, eight yards per punt return and three total touchdowns. Placekicker Alex Henery had an up-and-down regular season, making 23 of 28 attempts - including three from over 45 yards in the final three weeks.

Edge: New England

Notable Quotable

"Our running back situation is outstanding. Obviously we have a starter but when we put Bryce (Brown) and Chris (Polk) in there, they have done a really, really good job. They both can run the ball, they both can catch the ball well and they certainly both can pass protect." - Eagles offensive coordinator Pat Shumur

"You can't really look at the (pass defense) rankings and think you're going to have your way with them. Each game is different. They're playing at home. It'll be tough for us." - Saints WR Lance Moore

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**Udog** · 01-05-2014, 07:01 AM

Where the action is: Sunday's Wild Card line moves

The NFL Playoffs continue with two huge matchups which feature a pair of California teams traveling to some cold-climate cities Sunday. The Cincinnati Bengals host the San Diego Chargers while the San Francisco 49ers travel to Wisconsin to face the Green Bay Packers.

We talk to an oddsmaker from BetDSI about all the betting action coming in on both of these postseason showdowns:

San Diego Chargers at Cincinnati Bengals - Open: -7.5, Move: -6.5

This line has been on both sides of the key of a touchdown at some markets, with sharp money influencing the adjustments just minutes after odds opened. Bettors are liking the home team in this one as the Bengals were a force at home all season, posting perfect 8-0 records both SU and ATS.

"This has been the only matchup that has a side being backed by sharp action," the oddsmaker tells Covers. "Smart money is backing Cincinnati at the -6.5 (-115) value. Bet count is 3-to-1 in favor of Cincy and money wagered is about 2-to-1. Teaser action has been heavily focused on the Bengals as well, and a San Diego win would be the largest teaser swing of the weekend."

San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers - Open: 48, Move: 45.5

The weather at Lambeau Field is expected to be frigid and the total has sharp and public bettors divided. Sharp action came in on the Under when the number was posted, but public money has been liking the Over.

"This has been the most bet game of the wildcard playoff matchups this weekend and by far has been the biggest public side," the oddsmaker said. "Sharp bettors have hit the total on the Under 48 value which is now at 45.5. The public is on the Over which is helping to keep the books balanced here. Action overall is very balanced for a game that will polarize bettors based on fan base and geo-location."

The 49ers opened as 2.5-point road faves at most outlets with that line still holding firm since open.

Announcement

NFL Trends and Indexes - Wild Card Round (Saturday, January 4 - Sunday, January 5)

NFL Trends and Indexes - Wild Card Round (Saturday, January 4 - Sunday, January 5)

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