The Bum's January's College Basketball POD'S-Stats-Trends-News !

[StarDust Bum]

JANUARY'S RECORD:

77-76 *****

29 - 32 DOUBLE PLAYS

32- 27 - 1 TRIPLE PLAYS


Monday, January 20

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Fairfield - 3:30 PM ET Belmont -12.5 500
Belmont -

Xavier - 4:00 PM ET Xavier -5.5 500 *****
DePaul -

St. Peter's - 7:00 PM ET Marist -3.5 500
Marist -

Creighton - 7:00 PM ET Villanova -6.5 500 TRIPLE PLAY
Villanova -

Ohio St. - 7:00 PM ET Ohio St. -8 500
Nebraska -

Western Carolina - 7:00 PM ET Western Carolina +0 500
Wofford -

Delaware - 7:00 PM ET Delaware +2 500 *****
Drexel -

North Carolina - 7:00 PM ET North Carolina +7 500 TRIPLE PLAY
Virginia -

Loyola-Maryland - 7:30 PM ET Loyola-Maryland +11 500
Boston U -

Delaware State - 8:00 PM ET Delaware State +4 500
No.Carolina A&T -

Baylor - 9:00 PM ET Kansas -10.5 500 *****
Kansas -

Marquette - 9:00 PM ET Georgetown -2.5 500
Georgetown -

Idaho State - 9:00 PM ET Idaho State +10 500 *****
Weber St. -

Maryland - 9:00 PM ET Maryland +1.5 500 DOUBLE PLAY
N.C. State -

[StarDust Bum]

Tuesday's Tip Sheet

January 21, 2014


ESPN will present a double-header on Tuesday that has the potential to shake things up in both the Big Ten and the SEC. The Indiana Hoosiers are still trying to crack the Top 25 even after knocking off then-No. 4 Wisconsin last Tuesday. This time around they will get a shot at taking down No. 3 Michigan State. In the nightcap, Texas A&M has its sights set on making some noise with a road game against No. 14 Kentucky.

Indiana Hoosiers vs. No. 3 Michigan State Spartans (ESPN, 7:00 p.m.)

The Hoosiers followed-up their stunning 75-72 victory over the Badgers as 3 ½-point home underdogs with an ugly 54-47 loss to Northwestern this past Saturday as 13-point favorites at home that speaks directly to the consistency issues that have plagued Indiana all season long. It is now 12-6 straight up on the year with an 8-8-1 record against the spread. The total stayed UNDER the 132 ½-point closing line against the Wildcats after going OVER in four of its previous five contests.

Yogi Ferrell continues to lead the way for the Hoosiers with 17.4 points and 4.0 assists and Noah Vonieh is adding 12.4 points and a team-high 9.2 rebounds a game. The team is averaging 78 points a game while shooting 44.9 percent from the field and 33.1 percent from 3-point range. Indiana is ranked fourth in the nation in total rebounds with an average of 43.2 a game.

Michigan State slid into the No. 3 spot in the latest AP Poll after posting back-to-back double digit victories over Northwestern and Illinois. Its current SU winning streak is now sitting at 10 games and the Spartans are a perfect 6-0 SU in Big Ten play. They are 17-1 SU overall with a 10-6-1 record ATS after covering in eight of their last nine games. The total has gone OVER in three of their last four outings.

It appears that Michigan State will once again be without center Adreian Payne, who has missed the team’s last three games with a foot injury. He is the team’s second leading scorer (16.2 points) and rebounder (7.7). To fill the void, both Gary Harris and Keith Appling will need to continue to step up their game. These two have combined for 34 points, 8.4 rebounds and 7.5 assists this season. The Spartans are averaging 80.4 points a game and shooting 47.9 percent from the field.

Michigan State has been opened as an 11 ½-point home favorite over the Hoosiers for Tuesday night’s matchup.

The home team in this conference clash is 16-6 ATS in the last 22 meetings and the total has gone OVER in six of the last eight games played at Michigan State. Indiana is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 trips to East Lancing.

Texas A&M Aggies vs. No. 12 Kentucky Wildcats (ESPN, 9:00 p.m.)

Texas A&M dropped its first SEC game this season with a tough 81-72 overtime loss to Mississippi State this past Saturday as a three-point road favorite. The Aggies are now 12-5 SU on the year with a 3-1 record in conference play. They are just 3-3 ATS in their last six games and 6-5 ATS overall. The total has stayed UNDER in six of their last eight games with a posted line.

Jamal Jones (12.3 points) and Kourtney Roberson (9.9 points) are the only two Aggies scoring in double figures with a team total of 69.3 points a game. Defensively, the Aggies are holding opponents to an average of 61.5 points a game while averaging 35.6 rebounds. Texas A&M is shooting 45.2 percent from the field and 33.1 percent from 3-point range. It has struggled from the foul line; converting on just 65.7 percent of its attempts.

Kentucky continued to work its way back up the rankings to No. 12 despite last Tuesday’s 87-85 overtime loss to Arkansas as a 1 ½-point road underdog. The Wildcats bounced back by upending Tennessee 74-66 as 8 ½-point home favorites this past Saturday and they are now 13-4 SU with a 3-1 record in the SEC. They have failed to cover in four of their last seven games to fall to 6-7-2 ATS. The total has gone OVER in four of those seven games.

The Wildcats are averaging 80.4 points a game and shooting 47.4 percent from the field. The freshman duo of Julius Randle and James Young continue to evolve their game with a combined 31.1 points, 14.9 rebounds and 3.7 assists a game. Aaron and Andrew Harrison have combined to score 25.6 points and the freshman twins are adding another six rebounds and 5.6 assists a game. When you add it all up, these four first-year players are scoring over 70 percent of Kentucky’s points.

The Wildcats come into this matchup as 14 ½-point home favorites over Texas A&M.

Last season was the first time these two teams played one another in recent memory and they each came away with a SU victory on the road. Texas A&M covered in both games as an underdog and the total went over each time as well.

Other Games

A pair of other games on Tuesday’s schedule involving a ranked team starts things off with No. 22 Kansas State on the road against Texas as a four-point underdog in a 7:00 p.m. tip in the Big 12. That game will be available on ESPN2.

The ACC gets into action at 8:00 p.m. with the Clemson Tigers on the road against No. 20 Pittsburgh as 10 ½-point underdogs. This will be the first meeting between the two since Pitt jumped ship from the Big East at the end of last season. That game will be available on ESPN3.

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Tuesday's six-pack

Top six college hoop conferences, according to kenpom.com

6) AAC-- Bottom four in league are dragging it down.

5) Pac 12-- Colorado's season is ruined by Dinwiddie's injury.

4) ACC-- Can North Carolina win enough to make the NIT?

3) Big East-- Butler's first four league home games all went to OT.

2) Big X-- Baylor was 12-1 out of conference; they're 1-4 in Big X.

1) Big Dozen-- Ohio State currently on a four-game skid.


*****

Armadillo: Tuesday's List of 13: Random stuff on a winter day.....

13) NFL is considering eliminating the extra point, since only five out of roughly 1,200 kicks were missed this year. One suggested proposal involves a touchdown being worth seven points instead of six, with the potential for an extra play from scrimmage that would yield an eighth point, but if you did not get the 8th point, you would also lose a point, falling back to six. .

12) When Lions' QB Matthew Stafford was in high school, the center on his football team was Clayton Kershaw, the $215M man with the Dodgers.

11) Favorites are 26-19-2 vs spread in the history of the Super Bowl, but just 1-5 the last six years.

10) Vancouver Canucks' Henrik Sedin is sitting out tonight's game with Edmonton, ending his iron man streak at 679 consecutive games.

9) Canucks' coach John Tortorella got 15 days (six games) without pay for his role in locker room fracas in Vancouver the other night- with a 17-day Olympic break starting February 9, Tortorella isn't going to be around his team very much between now and the beginning of March.

8) Nebraska 68, Ohio State 62-- Tim Miles is a good coach who built the program at North Dakota State and made Colorado State relevant- this was his first league win this season. Nebraska is sinking a lot of resources into its basketball program; Miles will make them a winner.

7) $98.9M bet in Nevada's sports books on last year's Super Bowl was a new record, first time in seven years their handle exceeded the year before.

6) Charlotte's Al Jefferson had 22 points, 19 rebounds Monday; in the first quarter, he had 10 points, 10 boards, making him the first player this year to get a double double in the first quarter of a game.

5) Speaking of the Bobcats, their 18-25 record would put them in the NBA playoffs, if those playoffs started today. Thats not good.

Meanwhile out west, Memphis/Denver are both 20-20, but would miss the playoffs if they started today. Oy.

4) Toronto Raptors' GM Masai Ujiri must love the Knicks; he used to be the Nuggets' GM; he was the guy who traded Carmelo Anthony and he also foisted Andrea Bargnani on New York. Guy is making a career out of taking the Knicks to the cleaners.

3) 24 overs, 23 unders in the first 47 Super Bowls, if you invest in totals.

2) Creighton 96, Villanova 68-- Bluejays lost at Providence Saturday, then made 21-35 treys in Philly last night, crushing the #4 Wildcats. Teams in this era are so erratic; Creighton was 4-19 on arc Saturday in Providence.

1) Super Bowl VI was held outdoors in New Orleans, at Tulane Stadium; it was 39 degrees at kickoff, making it the coldest Super Bowl ever, until this Sunday night. Colder the night, the better for Seattle, right?

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB
Dunkel

Kansas State at Texas
The Longhorns play host to a Kansas State team that is 8-17 ATS in its last 25 games as a road underdog of 3 1/2 to 6 points. Texas is the pick (-5) according to Dunkel, which has the Longhorns favored by 7 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Texas (-5). Here are all of today's games.

TUESDAY, JANUARY 21

Game 511-512: Temple at Connecticut (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Temple 58.638; Connecticut 73.172
Dunkel Line: Connecticut by 14 1/2; 150
Vegas Line: Connecticut by 12; 146 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Connecticut (-12); Over

Game 513-514: Missouri at LSU (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Missouri 61.390; LSU 68.436
Dunkel Line: LSU by 7; 128
Vegas Line: LSU by 4 1/2; 134 1/2
Dunkel Pick: LSU (-4 1/2); Under

Game 515-516: Kansas State at Texas (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas State 66.152; Texas 73.840
Dunkel Line: Texas by 7 1/2
Vegas Line: Texas by 5
Dunkel Pick: Texas (-5)

Game 517-518: Indiana at Michigan State (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 63.249; Michigan State 79.057
Dunkel Line: Michigan State by 16; 133
Vegas Line: Michigan State by 12 1/2; 137 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Michigan State (-12 1/2); Under

Game 519-520: WI-Milwaukee at Wright State (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: WI-Milwaukee 51.920; Wright State 61.063
Dunkel Line: Wright State by 9
Vegas Line: Wright State by 7 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Wright State (-7 1/2)

Game 521-522: Harvard at Florida Atlantic (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Harvard 64.649; Florida Atlantic 51.069
Dunkel Line: Harvard by 13 1/2
Vegas Line: Harvard by 10 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Harvard (-10 1/2)

Game 523-524:Evansville at Missouri State (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Evansville 51.573; Missouri State 56.510
Dunkel Line: Missouri State by 5
Vegas Line: Missouri State by 7
Dunkel Pick: Evansville (+7)

Game 525-526: Notre Dame at Florida State (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Notre Dame 64.920; Florida State 69.454
Dunkel Line: Florida State by 4 1/2; 132
Vegas Line: Florida State by 9 1/2; 137 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Notre Dame (+9 1/2); Under

Game 527-528: Rutgers at SMU (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Rutgers 53.511; SMU 70.196
Dunkel Line: SMU by 16 1/2
Vegas Line: SMU by 13
Dunkel Pick: SMU (-13)

Game 529-530: Clemson at Pittsburgh (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Clemson 61.847; Pittsburgh 75.433
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 13 1/2; 133
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 10; 127 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-10); Over

Game 531-532: Georgia Tech at Boston College (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Georgia Tech 59.042; Boston College 57.181
Dunkel Line: Georgia Tech by 2
Vegas Line: Boston College by 4 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Georgia Tech (+4 1/2)

Game 533-534: Texas A&M at Kentucky (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas A&M 62.306; Kentucky 73.758
Dunkel Line: Kentucky by 11 1/2; 126
Vegas Line: Kentucky by 14; 133 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas A&M (+14); Under

Game 535-536: Butler at Providence (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Butler 61.909; Providence 70.198
Dunkel Line: Providence by 8 1/2; 145
Vegas Line: Providence by 5 1/2; 137 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Providence (-5 1/2); Over

Game 537-538: Purdue at Northwestern (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Purdue 64.237; Northwestern 57.409
Dunkel Line: Purdue by 7
Vegas Line: Purdue by 1 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Purdue (-1 1/2)

Game 539-540: Boise State at New Mexico (9:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boise State 61.863; New Mexico 69.214
Dunkel Line: New Mexico by 7 1/2
Vegas Line: New Mexico by 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New Mexico (-5 1/2)

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB
Long Sheet

Tuesday, January 21

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TEMPLE (5 - 11) at CONNECTICUT (14 - 4) - 1/21/2014, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CONNECTICUT is 9-0 ATS (+9.0 Units) in home games off a loss against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons.
TEMPLE is 166-128 ATS (+25.2 Units) against conference opponents since 1997.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.




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MISSOURI (14 - 3) at LSU (11 - 5) - 1/21/2014, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MISSOURI is 22-40 ATS (-22.0 Units) in road games in January games since 1997.
MISSOURI is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in road games off a win against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons.
MISSOURI is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) after allowing 60 points or less over the last 2 seasons.
MISSOURI is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 2 seasons.
LSU is 86-59 ATS (+21.1 Units) after allowing 60 points or less since 1997.
LSU is 49-76 ATS (-34.6 Units) in January games since 1997.


Head-to-Head Series History
LSU is 2-0 against the spread versus MISSOURI over the last 3 seasons
LSU is 1-1 straight up against MISSOURI over the last 3 seasons




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KANSAS ST (14 - 4) at TEXAS (14 - 4) - 1/21/2014, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS ST is 7-18 ATS (-12.8 Units) in road games on Tuesday nights since 1997.
KANSAS ST is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.


Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS ST is 3-2 against the spread versus TEXAS over the last 3 seasons
KANSAS ST is 4-1 straight up against TEXAS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons




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INDIANA (12 - 6) at MICHIGAN ST (17 - 1) - 1/21/2014, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MICHIGAN ST is 30-16 ATS (+12.4 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
MICHIGAN ST is 30-15 ATS (+13.5 Units) after a conference game over the last 3 seasons.
MICHIGAN ST is 23-11 ATS (+10.9 Units) off a win against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons.


Head-to-Head Series History
MICHIGAN ST is 3-2 against the spread versus INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
INDIANA is 3-2 straight up against MICHIGAN ST over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons




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WI-MILWAUKEE (13 - 7) at WRIGHT ST (12 - 9) - 1/21/2014, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WI-MILWAUKEE is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 3 seasons.
WI-MILWAUKEE is 160-121 ATS (+26.9 Units) against conference opponents since 1997.
WI-MILWAUKEE is 154-119 ATS (+23.1 Units) after a conference game since 1997.
WRIGHT ST is 4-11 ATS (-8.1 Units) in all games this season.
WRIGHT ST is 4-11 ATS (-8.1 Units) in all lined games this season.


Head-to-Head Series History
WRIGHT ST is 2-2 against the spread versus WI-MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasons
WRIGHT ST is 3-1 straight up against WI-MILWAUKEE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons




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HARVARD (14 - 2) at FLA ATLANTIC (6 - 12) - 1/21/2014, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HARVARD is 86-117 ATS (-42.7 Units) after a conference game since 1997.
HARVARD is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) as a favorite this season.
HARVARD is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in road games in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.
FLA ATLANTIC is 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) in home games after scoring 60 points or less since 1997.


Head-to-Head Series History
FLA ATLANTIC is 1-0 against the spread versus HARVARD over the last 3 seasons
HARVARD is 1-0 straight up against FLA ATLANTIC over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons




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EVANSVILLE (9 - 10) at MISSOURI ST (12 - 6) - 1/21/2014, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MISSOURI ST is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
MISSOURI ST is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in January games over the last 2 seasons.
MISSOURI ST is 19-6 ATS (+12.4 Units) after a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
MISSOURI ST is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) off a loss against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons.
EVANSVILLE is 25-11 ATS (+12.9 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
EVANSVILLE is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 2 seasons.


Head-to-Head Series History
EVANSVILLE is 3-2 against the spread versus MISSOURI ST over the last 3 seasons
EVANSVILLE is 4-1 straight up against MISSOURI ST over the last 3 seasons
3 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons




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NOTRE DAME (11 - 7) at FLORIDA ST (12 - 5) - 1/21/2014, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
FLORIDA ST is 11-4 ATS (+6.6 Units) in all games this season.
FLORIDA ST is 11-4 ATS (+6.6 Units) in all lined games this season.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.




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RUTGERS (8 - 10) at SMU (14 - 4) - 1/21/2014, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SMU is 35-17 ATS (+16.3 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record after 15 or more games since 1997.
SMU is 47-73 ATS (-33.3 Units) after allowing 60 points or less since 1997.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.




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CLEMSON (13 - 4) at PITTSBURGH (16 - 2) - 1/21/2014, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CLEMSON is 58-84 ATS (-34.4 Units) in road games after a conference game since 1997.
PITTSBURGH is 8-20 ATS (-14.0 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.




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GEORGIA TECH (10 - 8) at BOSTON COLLEGE (5 - 13) - 1/21/2014, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BOSTON COLLEGE is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in all games this season.
BOSTON COLLEGE is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in all lined games this season.


Head-to-Head Series History
BOSTON COLLEGE is 3-1 against the spread versus GEORGIA TECH over the last 3 seasons
BOSTON COLLEGE is 3-1 straight up against GEORGIA TECH over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons




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TEXAS A&M (12 - 5) at KENTUCKY (13 - 4) - 1/21/2014, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TEXAS A&M is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) off a loss against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons.
KENTUCKY is 17-28 ATS (-13.8 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
KENTUCKY is 17-28 ATS (-13.8 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
KENTUCKY is 7-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
KENTUCKY is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) after a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
KENTUCKY is 12-22 ATS (-12.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.


Head-to-Head Series History
TEXAS A&M is 2-0 against the spread versus KENTUCKY over the last 3 seasons
KENTUCKY is 1-1 straight up against TEXAS A&M over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons




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BUTLER (11 - 7) at PROVIDENCE (13 - 5) - 1/21/2014, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BUTLER is 143-111 ATS (+20.9 Units) after allowing 60 points or less since 1997.
BUTLER is 171-131 ATS (+26.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1997.
PROVIDENCE is 56-81 ATS (-33.1 Units) in home games against conference opponents since 1997.
PROVIDENCE is 34-56 ATS (-27.6 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games since 1997.


Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.




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PURDUE (13 - 5) at NORTHWESTERN (9 - 10) - 1/21/2014, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PURDUE is 66-91 ATS (-34.1 Units) in road games against conference opponents since 1997.
NORTHWESTERN is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) as an underdog this season.


Head-to-Head Series History
PURDUE is 3-1 against the spread versus NORTHWESTERN over the last 3 seasons
PURDUE is 3-1 straight up against NORTHWESTERN over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons




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BOISE ST (13 - 5) at NEW MEXICO (13 - 4) - 1/21/2014, 9:15 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BOISE ST is 61-89 ATS (-36.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games since 1997.
NEW MEXICO is 47-30 ATS (+14.0 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW MEXICO is 47-30 ATS (+14.0 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW MEXICO is 41-24 ATS (+14.6 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
NEW MEXICO is 27-13 ATS (+12.7 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
NEW MEXICO is 26-13 ATS (+11.7 Units) after a conference game over the last 3 seasons.
NEW MEXICO is 21-10 ATS (+10.0 Units) off a win against a conference rival over the last 3 seasons.
NEW MEXICO is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.


Head-to-Head Series History
NEW MEXICO is 4-0 against the spread versus BOISE ST over the last 3 seasons
NEW MEXICO is 4-0 straight up against BOISE ST over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB
Short Sheet

Tuesday, January 21

Connecticut: 9-0 ATS at home off a SU conference loss

LSU: 1-8 ATS off a home win by 10 or more points

Kansas State: 8-1 ATS after a win by 20 or more points

Michigan State: 6-0 ATS after covering 4 of their last 5 games

Harvard: 7-0 ATS as a favorite this season

Missouri State: 6-0 ATS off 2 straight conference losses

Florida State: 11-4 ATS this season

SMU: 13-27 ATS at home off a win by 10 or more points

Pittsburgh: 0-6 ATS after playing two straight road games

Boston College: 4-12 ATS this season

Kentucky: 15-32 ATS after an ATS loss

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Tuesday, January 21

Temple lost eight of last nine games, is 0-5 in AAC, losing road games by 5-2-10 points, despite Owls making 44.4% from arc in league games. UConn won three of last four games, losing at home to Louisville in last game after coach Ollie got tossed in second half. Huskies are 7-1 against teams outside top 100, with seven of nine wins by 12+ points. AAC double digit home favorites are 4-2 vs spread.

Home side won both LSU-Missouri games LY; Mizzou lost 73-70 in its first visit to Baton Rouge as an SEC member. Mizzou is 4-3 in its last seven games after 10-0 start; they split first two SEC road games, with two games decided by total of seven points. LSU is 2-3 in its last five games, 3-4 vs top 100 teams; they're making only 27.8% from arc in SEC games. SEC home favorites of 6 or less points are 4-2 vs spread.

Kansas State won six of last seven games with Texas, sweeping three by 26-12-17 points LY; Wildcats won four of last five visits to Austin. Big X single digit home favorites are 3-4 vs spread. Longhorns won three in a row by 3-10-11 points. K-State won 12 of last 13 games with only loss at Kansas; Wildcats won by 18 at TCU in only other road games. Texas won two of three Big X road games, beating Texas Tech/Iowa State.

Michigan State (-2.5) won 73-56 at Indiana Jan 4, ending 3-game skid in series; Hoosiers' win here LY ended 7+-game skid in the Breslin Center. Indiana beat Wisconsin last week, then lost to Northwestern; they're an erratic 12-6 team, 2-3 in league- four of their six losses are by 7 or less points. Michigan State is 6-0 at home in league, but both wins at home came in OT. Big Dozen home favorites of 8+ points are 9-2 vs spread.

Wright State won last three games with Milwaukee by 24-2-15 points; they won last eight series games played here, with four of last seven by 10+ points. Third game in five nights for Raider squad that won by 3 at Cleveland State Sunday, after losing at home to Green Bay, its one loss in three league home games. Horizon home favorites of 5+ points are 9-2 vs spread. Panthers lost at Valpo by 13, its one loss in three Horizon road games.

Evansville won five of last six games with Missouri State; three of their last four series wins came in OT; Aces won two of last three games after losing nine of previous 11 before that- they're 1-2 on Valley road, with a 28-point loss at Drake and OT loss at Illinois State. Bears lost leading scorer Mitchell for year, have now lost last three games. MVC home favorites are 10-5 vs spread, 4-2 if giving 7 or less points.

Notre Dame is 2-3 in its first ACC season, losing both road games by 5 at Ga Tech, 8 at Maryland; Irish are making only 31.8% from arc in its ACC games, #9 out of 15 teams. Florida State won seven of its last nine games, with both losses to Virginia; they're holding ACC foes to 38% inside arc, #1 in league- Irish will need to make some 3's to win. ACC home favorites of 7+ points are 9-6 vs spread.

SMU is playing third game in four days after beating Hofstra in makeup game Sunday night; Mustangs are 2-0 in AAC home games, winning by 9-17 points- they're turning ball over 21.7% of time despite playing 2nd slowest tempo in AAC. Rutgers lost three of last four games, losing its first two AAC road games by 20-22 points. AAC double digit home favorites are 4-2 against the spread.

Boston College won last three games with Georgia Tech by 4-2-20, with Eagles winning last four series games played here, by 1-11-4-2 points- they've lost nine of last ten D-I games, with only win at Va Tech by 3. Tech lost five of last seven games; they're 0-2 on ACC road, losing by 16 at Maryland, 22 at Duke. This is their first road game in two weeks. ACC home favorites of 6 or less points are 4-6 vs spread.

Road team won both Texas A&M-Kentucky games LY; Aggies won by 12 at Rupp, are 3-1 in SEC this year, losing in OT at Miss State in last game after winning by 1 at Tennessee in other road game. Kentucky won its first two SEC home games by 22-9 points; they're holding teams to 26% from arc in SEC games. Aggies are making 44.1% from arc, #1 in league. SEC home favorites of 9+ points are 5-3 vs spread.

Butler is 1-5 in its first Big East season, with four of six games going to OT; they lost by 11 at Xavier, 28 at Creighton in two league road tilts. Big East foes are shooting 55% inside arc vs Bulldogs. Providence beat Creighton by 13 at home Saturday, its third win in row; three of their last six games also went to overtimne. Big East home favorites of 7 or less points are 5-4 against the spread.

Northwestern won two of last three games, allowing 43-47 points; they are 0-4 when allowing more thanb 49 vs league foes, with all four losses by 14+ points. Wildcats lost five of last six games with Purdue, but they beat Boilers 75-60 here LY. Big Dozen home underdogs are 5-4 against spread. Purdue won last three games by 6-1-8 points, upsetting Illinois in Champaign; they split other two road games, at West Va/Minnesota.

New Mexico is 4-0 vs Boise State in league play, winning by 15-10 in Pit; Lobos are 4-1 in league but are 0-2 as home favorites, losing by 3 to UNLV in last home game, after beating Colorado State by 7. Broncos are 3-2 in MW, with all five games decided by 9 or less points; they split two road games, losing by 3 in San Diego, winning at Nevada. Mountain West home favorites of 10 or less points are 5-9 vs spread.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB

Tuesday, January 21

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Trend Report
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JANUARY 21, 7:00 PM
TEMPLE vs. CONNECTICUT
Temple is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Connecticut's last 6 games
Connecticut is 15-4 SU in its last 19 games

See more trends!
JANUARY 21, 7:00 PM
WISC-MILWAUKEE vs. WRIGHT STATE
Wisc-Milwaukee is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Wisc-Milwaukee's last 6 games on the road
Wright State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Wisc-Milwaukee
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Wright State's last 5 games

See more trends!
JANUARY 21, 7:00 PM
MISSOURI vs. LSU
Missouri is 6-12 SU in its last 18 games on the road
Missouri is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
LSU is 13-3 SU in its last 16 games at home
LSU is 11-4 SU in its last 15 games

See more trends!
JANUARY 21, 7:00 PM
HARVARD vs. FLORIDA ATLANTIC
Harvard is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Florida Atlantic is 5-12 SU in its last 17 games
Florida Atlantic is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games at home

See more trends!
JANUARY 21, 7:00 PM
INDIANA vs. MICHIGAN STATE
Indiana is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Michigan State
Indiana is 1-14 SU in its last 15 games when playing on the road against Michigan State
Michigan State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Michigan State's last 9 games at home

See more trends!
JANUARY 21, 7:00 PM
KANSAS STATE vs. TEXAS
Kansas State is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Kansas State's last 5 games when playing on the road against Texas
Texas is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Kansas State
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Texas's last 5 games when playing at home against Kansas State

See more trends!
JANUARY 21, 8:00 PM
NOTRE DAME vs. FLORIDA STATE
Notre Dame is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Florida State is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games at home
Florida State is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games

See more trends!
JANUARY 21, 8:00 PM
RUTGERS vs. SOUTHERN METHODIST
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Rutgers's last 14 games on the road
Rutgers is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Southern Methodist is 9-2 SU in its last 11 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Southern Methodist's last 7 games

See more trends!
JANUARY 21, 8:00 PM
CLEMSON vs. PITTSBURGH
Clemson is 3-12 SU in its last 15 games on the road
Pittsburgh is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Pittsburgh is 16-2 SU in its last 18 games

See more trends!
JANUARY 21, 8:05 PM
EVANSVILLE vs. MISSOURI STATE
Evansville is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games on the road
Evansville is 1-10 SU in its last 11 games when playing on the road against Missouri State
Missouri State is 10-1 SU in its last 11 games when playing at home against Evansville
Missouri State is 1-3-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Evansville

See more trends!
JANUARY 21, 9:00 PM
GEORGIA TECH vs. BOSTON COLLEGE
Georgia Tech is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Georgia Tech's last 5 games on the road
Boston College is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Georgia Tech
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Boston College's last 6 games when playing Georgia Tech

See more trends!
JANUARY 21, 9:00 PM
BUTLER vs. PROVIDENCE
No trends available
Providence is 13-5 SU in its last 18 games
Providence is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home

See more trends!
JANUARY 21, 9:00 PM
PURDUE vs. NORTHWESTERN
Purdue is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games on the road
Purdue is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games when playing on the road against Northwestern
Northwestern is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Northwestern's last 5 games at home

See more trends!
JANUARY 21, 9:00 PM
TEXAS A&M vs. KENTUCKY
The total has gone UNDER in 17 of Texas A&M's last 25 games on the road
Texas A&M is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Kentucky is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Kentucky is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games

See more trends!
JANUARY 21, 9:15 PM
BOISE STATE vs. NEW MEXICO
Boise State is 4-9 SU in its last 13 games on the road
New Mexico is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
New Mexico is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB

Tuesday, January 21

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Indiana at Michigan State: What bettors need to know
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Indiana Hoosiers at Michigan State Spartans (-12.5, OFF)

Third-ranked Michigan State has sealed the best start in program history and now looks to complete a regular-season sweep of Indiana when the Hoosiers visit East Lansing for Tuesday’s Big Ten matchup. The first-place Spartans have won 10 consecutive games since their lone defeat and one of the victories was an impressive 73-56 road win over Indiana. The Hoosiers are struggling during a rebuilding campaign and suffered a dismal 54-47 loss to Northwestern on Saturday.

Spartans guard Gary Harris scored a career-high 26 points in the win over the Hoosiers on Jan. 4 and the sophomore had another big outing last Saturday against Illinois when he scored 23 points in a 78-62 victory. Indiana’s sub-par showing against Northwestern – the Hoosiers shot a porous 25 percent from the field – was doubly painful coming just four days after a big upset of then-No. 3 Wisconsin. “We actually took a step back now,” said guard Stanford Robinson after the contest, “and so we have to take a couple steps forward just to catch up to where we were.”

TV: 7 p.m. ET, ESPN

LINE: Michigan State opened as 12.5-point faves. The total is currently off the board.

ABOUT INDIANA (12-6, 8-8-1 ATS): The Hoosiers have three double-digit scorers in guard Yogi Ferrell (17.4), forward Noah Vonleh (12.4 points, team-best 9.2 rebounds) and forward Will Sheehey (10.4) but aren’t coming close to meeting coach Tom Crean’s expectations. “I try to understand more than ever that you coach potential during practice, you coach performance during the game and you try to give your team every possible chance to win, whether people understand it or not,” Crean said after the Northwestern loss. “You’re trying to get your team – and I’m with this team every day so I have an idea of what it looks like.”

ABOUT MICHIGAN STATE (17-1, 10-5-2 ATS): The Spartans haven’t missed a beat with center Adreian Payne (16.2 points, 7.7 rebounds) about to miss his fourth consecutive game with an ankle injury and Harris views his loss as a blessing in disguise. “We learned to play without him,” said Harris, who averages a team-best 17.9 points while accumulating a team-leading 29 steals. “Some other guys stepped up. We’re building a team.” Point guard Keith Appling (16.1 points, team-best 4.6 assists) and forward Branden Dawson (10.1 points, team-leading 8.7 rebounds) are also playing solidly.

TRENDS:

* Over is 6-1-1 in the last eight meetings at Michigan St.
* Home team is 16-6 ATS in the last 22 meetings.
* Indiana is 2-8 ATS in the last 10 meetings at Michigan St.

TIP-INS:

1. The Spartans have won seven of the last nine meetings.

2. Michigan State is committing just 11.4 turnovers per game and is on pace to set the mark for the fewest turnovers during Tom Izzo’s 19-season tenure, supplanting the 13 per contest of 2011-12.

3. Indiana is outrebounding its opponents by 11.3 per game and Michigan State (34-32) is the only team to win the battle of the boards against the Hoosiers.

[StarDust Bum]

JANUARY'S RECORD:

81-76 *****

29 - 33 DOUBLE PLAYS

32- 29 - 1 TRIPLE PLAYS



Tuesday, January 21

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Missouri - 7:00 PM ET Missouri +5 500
Louisiana State - Over 137.5 500

Temple - 7:00 PM ET Connecticut -12 500 DOUBLE PLAY
Connecticut - Under 140.5 500

Harvard - 7:00 PM ET Harvard -9.5 500 TRIPLE PLAY
Florida Atlantic -

Indiana - 7:00 PM ET Indiana +12.5 500 *****
Michigan St - Over 144 500

Wis.-Milwaukee - 7:00 PM ET Wis.-Milwaukee +7 500 *****
Wright St. -

Kansas St. - 7:00 PM ET Kansas St. +5.5 500 *****
Texas - Over 134.5 500

Rutgers - 8:00 PM ET Southern Methodist -12.5 500 TRIPLE PLAY
Southern Methodist - Under 136.5 500

Notre Dame - 8:00 PM ET Florida St. -9 500 *****
Florida St. -

Clemson - 8:00 PM ET Pittsburgh -11 500 *****
Pittsburgh -

Evansville - 8:05 PM ET Evansville +7 500
Missouri St. -

Purdue - 9:00 PM ET Purdue -3 500 *****
Northwestern - Under 126 500

Texas A&M - 9:00 PM ET Texas A&M +14 500 *****
Kentucky - Over 133.5 500

Georgia Tech - 9:00 PM ET Georgia Tech +5.5 500 *****
Boston College - Over 139 500

Butler - 9:00 PM ET Butler +5 500
Providence - Under 131.5 500

Boise St. - 9:15 PM ET New Mexico -5.5 500 DOUBLE PLAY
New Mexico - Under 142.5 500

[WThotrod]

Good luck tonight, Bum!

[StarDust Bum]

Exposing the Top 25: Where the polls went wrong


Each week throughout the college basketball season, Covers Expert Jesse Schule will dissect the new Top 25 rankings, looking for betting value. He'll showcase the most overrated team, along with the most underrated ranked team, and an unranked squad that he feels should be in the Top 25.

Most underrated Top 25 team: Wichita State Shockers (19-0 SU, 12-3-1 ATS)

It's tough to make an argument that the Shockers aren’t underrated. After all, they have the best record in the country at 19-0 and yet they’re ranked behind both Villanova and Michigan State, despite the fact that both those teams have suffered at least one loss this season. There is also the fact that the Shockers are covering the spread in 80 percent of their games so far, a truly amazing statistic considering we are more than halfway through the season.

Critics will say that the Shockers’ schedule doesn't see them play a single ranked opponent all season. That doesn't mean they haven't played any quality teams. They have registered impressive double-digit victories over BYU and DePaul, and they beat Saint Louis and Alabama on the road. We saw what this team was capable in last year's tournament and there is every reason to expect them to be a contender once again this March.

Most overrated Top 25 team: Villanova Wildcats (16-2 SU, 12-4 ATS)

The Wildcats climbed all the way to fourth in the national polls this week. But on the very same day the new rankings came out, they were blown out on their own court by the Creighton Bluejays. They didn't just lose that game - they lost by a staggering 18-point margin at home.

The Wildcats play three straight road games over the next 10 days, then return home to host a dangerous Xavier team. It seems inevitable that Villanova will slide downward in the rankings as the season progresses.

Unranked team that should be ranked: Creighton Bluejays (15-3 SU, 12-5 ATS)

The AP dropped the Bluejays from the rankings this week, after their 10-game winning streak came to an end on the road against Providence. Creighton, though, is almost guaranteed to shoot back up into the rankings after its upset win at Villanova.

Doug McDermott and the boys shot 60 percent from 3-point range in the win over the Wildcats, hitting 21 3-pointers. Any team that is capable of doing that on the road versus one of the nation's Top 5 teams is going to strike fear into any opponent.

[StarDust Bum]

Sorry no time for stats,writeups etc.......just got home from PT

Wednesday, January 22

Game Score Status Pick Amount

George Mason - 7:00 PM ET Fordham -1 500
Fordham -

Bowling Green - 7:00 PM ET Ohio -10.5 500 *****
Ohio -

Rhode Island - 7:00 PM ET St. Joseph's -9 500
St. Joseph's -

Massachusetts - 7:00 PM ET Massachusetts +3.5 500 *****
Richmond -

NC-Wilmington - 7:00 PM ET Charleston -10 500 *****
Charleston -

Akron - 7:00 PM ET Eastern Michigan -3 500
Eastern Michigan -

Northeastern - 7:00 PM ET Northeastern +5.5 500
Towson -

William & Mary - 7:00 PM ET Hofstra +3.5 500 *****
Hofstra -

Niagara - 7:00 PM ET Canisius -9.5 500
Canisius -

Saint Louis - 7:00 PM ET Saint Louis -9 500
Duquesne -

Northern Illinois - 7:00 PM ET Toledo -17 500 DOUBLE PLAY
Toledo -

Wake Forest - 7:00 PM ET Wake Forest +2.5 500
Virginia Tech -

Iowa - 7:00 PM ET Iowa +3 500
Michigan -

Louisville - 7:00 PM ET South Florida +14 500
South Florida -

VCU - 7:00 PM ET Dayton -2 500 DOUBLE PLAY
Dayton -

Central Michigan - 7:00 PM ET Miami (OH) -7 500
Miami (OH) -

Duke - 7:30 PM ET Miami-Florida +4 500
Miami-Florida -

Cleveland St. - 8:00 PM ET Cleveland St. -6 500 TRIPLE PLAY
Illinois-Chicago -

Auburn - 8:00 PM ET Auburn -2 500
Mississippi St. -

Northern Iowa - 8:00 PM ET Northern Iowa -5 500
Bradley -

Indiana St. - 8:00 PM ET Indiana St. -5.5 500 DOUBLE PLAY
Loyola-Chicago -

South Carolina - 8:00 PM ET South Carolina +5.5 500 *****
Georgia -

Oakland - 8:00 PM ET Green Bay -11 500 DOUBLE PLAY
Green Bay -

Arkansas - 8:00 PM ET Tennessee -7.5 500
Tennessee -

Texas Tech - 8:00 PM ET West Virginia -7.5 500 *****
West Virginia -

Drake - 8:05 PM ET Drake +2.5 500
Southern Illinois -

Wichita St. - 8:05 PM ET Wichita St. -9 500 DOUBLE PLAY
Illinois St. -

La Salle - 9:00 PM ET St. Bonaventure -2.5 500 TRIPLE PLAY
St. Bonaventure -

Wisconsin - 9:00 PM ET Minnesota +3 500
Minnesota -

Texas Christian - 9:00 PM ET Oklahoma -14 500
Oklahoma -

Mississippi - 9:00 PM ET Mississippi -1 500
Vanderbilt -

Wyoming - 9:05 PM ET Air Force +2 500 DOUBLE PLAY
Air Force -

Nevada - 10:00 PM ET Nevada +3 500
Fresno St. -

San Diego St. - 10:00 PM ET San Diego St. -13 500 , TRIPLE PLAY
San Jose St. -

Oregon St. - 10:00 PM ET Oregon St. -2.5 500 *****
Washington St. -

California - 11:00 PM ET California -7.5 500 TRIPLE PLAY
Southern California -

Utah St. - 11:05 PM ET UNLV -4.5 500
UNLV -

[StarDust Bum]

Florida at Alabama

January 22, 2014


Florida will take its nine-game winning streak into Coleman Coliseum on Thursday night to take on a struggling Alabama squad. This SEC showdown will feature a pair of head coaches that are quite fond of each other.

Anthony Grant spent 10 seasons on Billy Donovan's staff at UF, playing a pivotal role through his recruiting efforts in the shaping of the 2006 and 2007 teams that repeated as national champions.

Grant moved on from Florida to take his first head-coaching gig at Virginia Commonwealth. In his first year, he helped VCU pull a stunning upset over Duke on Eric Maynor's go-ahead jumper with 1.7 seconds remaining.

Grant would lead VCU to an NIT trip in his second season and then a return appearance to the NCAAs in his third campaign. He then left to take the Alabama job, but his recruitment of players like Joey Rodriguez to VCU eventually landed the Rams in the Final Four on Shaka Smart's watch.

This is Grant's fifth season at Alabama. He has taken the Crimson Tide to just one NCAA Tournament and two NIT's. In 2009, if you had told me that's what his tenure would've produced at this point, I would've been absolutely shocked.

And I am stunned. You can recruit to Alabama, especially if you're someone like Grant. Wimp Sanderson attracted the likes of James 'Hollywood' Robinson, Robert Horry, Melvin Cheatum, Derrick McKey, Jason Caffey, Bobby Lee Hurt and Latrell Sprewell.

But things haven't gone right for Grant, especially in this fifth year with his team sporting a mediocre 8-9 straight-up record. Grant is universally respected in the hoops community and I understand that he has the support of the big power brokers at Alabama.

Nevertheless, his job security will come under further scrutiny if this year continues to head south. The exact type of win and subsequent reversal of fortune could come with an upset of Florida, but that won't be an easy task.

As of early Wednesday night, most betting shops were listing Florida (15-2 straight up, 6-6-1 against the spread) as a 5.5-point favorite.

The Gators got a tough test Saturday at Auburn, but they survived thanks to a clutch shot from Scottie Wilbekin at crunch time after the Tigers had pulled to within one. UF won 68-61 but failed to cover the spread as an eight-point road 'chalk.' However, gamblers that took Florida at halftime (-5.5 with a one-point lead, -6.5 adjusted) cashed a fortunate winner thanks to late free throws.

Casey Prather returned to the court after missing a pair of games with knee swelling. UF's leading scorer, who averages 17.3 points per game, scored 16 of his team-high 21 points in the first half. Wilbekin finished with 16 points, while senior center Patric Young added 13 points and six rebounds.

Alabama (8-9 SU, 5-9 ATS) got stroked 68-47 Saturday at Missouri as a 4.5-point road underdog. The Tide trailed by only one at intermission, but it scored just 17 points in the final 20 minutes. Shannon Hale scored a team-best 12 points.

Alabama has a 2-3 spread record in five lined home games. The Tide, which is 1-3 ATS as an underdog this year, is a home 'dog for the first time in this spot.

The 'under' is 9-3-1 overall for the Gators this year. Dating back to last season, they have seen the 'under' go 19-6-1 in their last 26 lined games.

The 'under' is 7-6 overall for 'Bama, but it has seen the 'over' go 4-1 in its home games.

Florida has won seven in a row over Alabama since the Tide won an 80-69 decision in the 2008 SEC Tournament. That defeat popped UF's bubble when it was the two-time defending national champs.

Even though it has lost seven straight to UF, Alabama has covered the number in the last three meetings and is 4-3 ATS in those setbacks.

ESPN2 will have the telecast at 7:00 p.m. Eastern.

**B.E.'s Bonus Nuggets**

-- Cincinnati's incredible run of 'unders' will be on the line Thursday night when it takes on UCF at home. The 'under' is 12-1 for the Bearcats this season and dating back to last year, they have seen the 'under' go 25-3 in their last 28 games with a total.

-- Ohio State and Illinois have both lost four consecutive games. One of those slumps will end Thursday when they collide in Columbus. The early number out early Wednesday evening had the Buckeyes favored by 10.

-- BYU has won five in a row while going 4-1 ATS. The Cougars are favored by 4.5 Thursday at Portland. This is the third of four consecutive road assignments for Dave Rose's squad. The Pilots are 2-1 both SU and ATS in three games as home underdogs this year. They beat Gonzaga and Princeton outright. Portland owns a 9-5 spread record in 14 home games.

-- After starting the season with a 12-0 record, Oregon has lost four in a row both SU and ATS. The Ducks will look to snap out of it Thursday at Washington as 1.5-point road 'chalk.' The Huskies are 1-1 both SU and ATS as home underdogs, with a 71-54 victory over Colorado to their credit.

-- When you look at the SEC, it only has two teams in Florida and Kentucky that are locks to get invited to the NCAA Tournament. Tennessee has a strong chance and can lean on two very solid non-conference wins over Virginia and Xavier. But the rest of the candidates -- Ole Miss, Missouri, Arkansas and LSU -- are squarely on the bubble with a lot of work to do on their respective resumes.

-- UCLA owns a 9-3 spread record when installed as a favorite this season. The Bruins are six-point home 'chalk' vs. Stanford on Thursday. The Cardinal is 2-1-1 ATS in four games as an underdog with outright victories at Oregon and at UConn.

[StarDust Bum]

Top 10 - Stock Watch

January 21, 2014


Here’s another look at this week’s Top 10 Stock Watch and how they will match up against the spread versus their conference competitors. Remember, teams are starting to see each other for the second time around. It would be foolish, for any bettors to underestimate the power of revenge.

1) ARIZONA: (18-0 SU, 13-4 ATS) - BUY

If you are betting Arizona, you’re winning over 75% of your bets this season. My grandfather once told me, “You don’t leave fun, to find fun.” Not bad advice.

2) Syracuse: (17-0 SU, 9-4 ATS) - SELL

The Orange are getting a week off before traveling to Miami, but the Hurricanes get a week off too. My one concern with Syracuse is their performance on the road with a 4-4 ATS record. They are playing Miami for the second time this season. I see a focused Hurricane team ready for revenge.

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3) Michigan State: (17-1 SU, 10-5-2 ATS) - SELL

The Spartans surprisingly are only batting .500 ATS at home this season. They host Indiana on Tuesday as 12-point favorites. Considering their ATS record at home and being it’s the second time these two teams have met this year, I believe a double-digit spread is too much. Michigan State comes out victorious, but only by a few baskets.

4) Villanova: (16-2 SU, 12-4 ATS) - BUY

Villanova got brought back down to earth Monday with a Creighton thumping. This will be the last time ‘Nova is in the Top 10 this season, but in the meantime, I see an angry Wildcat team ready to “let out some steam”, on their next opponent…Marquette.

5) Wichita State: (19-0 SU, 12-3-1 ATS) - SELL

You can’t say much more about the Shockers. They are a good basketball team in a below average conference. They should go undefeated, but they are starting to play teams for the second time this year. The spread will be higher and the opponents will be better prepared. They are on the road this week against Illinois State and Drake. I’m selling.

6) Florida (15-2 SU, 6-6-1 ATS) - HOLD

The Gators have the 10th best overall defense in the country, while their offense is 170 overall. The defense is keeping them in the winner’s circle, but not covering spreads. Florida hits the road to play Alabama and then back home to face Tennessee. I think they cover the spread in one of these games; I’m just not sure which one. I’m holding on Florida.

7) San Diego State (16-1 SU, 8-6 ATS) - HOLD

The Aztecs continue to roll, but they are only 3-8 ATS in the Mountain West. They are coming off a huge rival victory over UNLV and are now on the road this week. I do not like the 3-8 ATS statistic, so I’m holding on Steve Fisher’s team for now.

8) Kansas (14-4 SU, 8-9-1 ATS) - BUY

The early tough schedule that Bill Self implemented is paying dividends. The Jayhawks are starting to roll over teams and doing it against the spread as well. Since the conference play began, Kansas is 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS. I’m going to stay with the Jayhawks and continue to buy.

9) Wisconsin (16-2 SU, 11-7 ATS) - BUY

The Badgers have lost their last two games, with their last setback occurring last Saturday against Michigan at home. That won’t sit well with Bo Ryan. Wisconsin goes on the road this week to play Minnesota and Purdue. I see Wisconsin taking out some frustration. I’m buying.

10) Iowa (15-3 SU, 11-5 ATS) - BUY

The Hawkeyes are for real. Teams and bettors that aren’t taking this team seriously are losing games and money. I don’t see Iowa leaving the Top 10 anytime soon. They play Michigan and Northwestern on the road and they will win and cover both matchups. I like the Hawkeyes moving forward in conference play.