NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 16 (Sunday, December 22 - Monday, December 23)

[Udog]

NFL

Sunday, December 22

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Sunday's NFL Week 16 betting cheat sheet: Late action
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Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (-10.5, 43)

Arizona’s defense ranks seventh in total defense (322.3) and eighth in scoring defense (20.8), and veteran linebacker John Abraham is having a standout campaign with 11.5 sacks and four forced fumbles. Veteran wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald is expected to play against the Seahawks despite suffering a concussion last week. Cardinals WR Michael Floyd’s last 24 receptions have all gone for first downs.

Marshawn Lynch is over 1,000 yards for the third straight season and fifth time in his career and rushed for a solid 91 yards in the first meeting with the Cardinals. Arizona leads the NFL in rushing defense (83.2) so yards could be tough to come by in the rematch with the Cardinals, who desperately need a victory. The Seahawks forced eight turnovers while trouncing the Cardinals 58-0 in last season’s meeting in Seattle.

LINE: Seattle opened at -10 but has been bet up a half-point, while the total has dropped two points to 43.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-40s with a 59 percent chance of rain and wind blowing across the length of the field at 9 mph.
POWER RANKINGS: Arizona (-3.0) + Seattle (-8.0) + home field (-3.0) = Seahawks -8
TRENDS:

* Cardinals are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a SU win.
* Seahawks are 7-1 ATS in their last eight December games.
* Over is 13-6 in the last 19 meetings.


New York Giants at Detroit Lions (-10, 49)

Eli Manning's trainwreck of a season reached its nadir when he threw a career-high five interceptions against Seattle, boosting his total to a league-worst 25 and matching his career high from 2010. His passer rating of 69.7 is his lowest since his rookie campaign and doesn't figure to get any better with leading receiver Victor Cruz dealing with a concussion and a sprained knee that will cause him to miss Sunday's game.

Manning is not the only QB who has been a turnover machine - Detroit's Matt Stafford has picked been off 10 times and lost two fumbles in the past five games. Three more interceptions by Stafford in last week's 18-16 loss at Baltimore continued the Lions' inability to protect a fourth-quarter lead, which has occurred in each of their last four defeats. Wide receiver Calvin Johnson is second in the league with 1.449 yards.

LINE: The Lions opened at -10 while the total has held steady at 49.
WEATHER: N/A
POWER RANKINGS: New York (+4.5) + Detroit (-1.5) + home field (-3.0) = Lions -9
TRENDS:

* Giants are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 road games.
* Lions are 1-6 ATS in their last seven December games.
* Road team is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.


Oakland Raiders at San Diego Chargers (-10, 50.5)

Quarterback Matt McGloin had his worst performance since taking over the starting job, tossing four interceptions and losing a fumble in the debacle against the Chiefs. Oft-injured running back Darren McFadden returned to practice and could be back in the lineup, but Oakland has received solid production from backup Rashad Jennings, who rushed for 91 yards last week and recorded his second straight two-touchdown game.

Even though San Diego's postseason hopes appear remote, quarterback Philip Rivers guided the team to its biggest upset of the season by throwing a pair of touchdown passes in a 27-20 win at Denver last week. Running back Ryan Mathews has his own checkered injury history, but he tied his season high with 127 yards and went over 100 yards for the fifth time in the past nine games.

LINE: San Diego is steady as a 10-point fave, with the total up one point to 50.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-60s with clear skies.
POWER RANKINGS: Oakland (+6.0) + San Diego (-1.3) + home field (-3.0) = Chargers -10.3
TRENDS:

* Raiders are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games following an ATS loss.
* Chargers are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 games following a SU win.
* Under is 6-1-1 in the last eight meetings in San Diego.


Pittsburgh Steelers at Green Bay Packers (-1.5, 45)

Pittsburgh has rallied in the second half of the season but can't help but kick itself for four losses by a touchdown or less, including a 34-28 setback against Miami two weeks ago that would have dramatically improved its playoff chances. Ben Roethlisberger will try to channel his performance from his only previous regular-season meeting with the Packers in which he threw for a career-best 503 yards and three TDs.

The Packers will be without starting quarterback Aaron Rodgers, who wasn't cleared this week despite returning to practice as he continues his recovery from a collarbone injury. Green Bay came back from a 26-3 halftime deficit to beat Dallas last week and revived its playoff hopes in the process. The Packers have won their final regular-season home game in eight straight seasons and 20 of the last 21.

LINE: The Packers opened -2.5 but are now -1.5. The total is set at 45.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-20s with a 93 percent chance of snow and wind blowing across the length of the field at 15 mph.
POWER RANKINGS: Pittsburgh (0.0) + Green Bay (+4.0) - home field (-3.0) = Steelers -1
TRENDS:

* Steelers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games.
* Packers are 6-2 ATS in their last eight December games.
* Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.


New England Patriots at Baltimore Ravens (-1.5, 45)

Tom Brady, whose completion percentage is his lowest since 2004, needs one win to match Dan Marino (147) for fourth place on the all-time list. The future Hall of Famer threw a late interception to seal last week's 24-20 loss to the Dolphins - the Patriots' first game since losing All-Pro tight end Rob Gronkowski to a season-ending knee injury two weeks ago.

Baltimore's four-game winning streak is tied for the NFL's longest with San Francisco - the team it beat to win last season's Super Bowl - and the Ravens' last two wins have come in dramatic fashion. Justin Tucker's 61-yard field goal in the final minute stunned Detroit on Monday night, one week after Joe Flacco capped a back-and-forth thriller against Minnesota with the game-winning touchdown pass with four seconds left.

LINE: Baltimore opened -2.5 and is now -1.5, with the total down a half-point to 45.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-60s with a 55 percent chance of thunderstorms and wind blowing across the width of the field at 12 mph.
POWER RANKINGS: New England (-4.8) - Baltimore (-0.5) - home field (-3.0) = Patriots -1.3
TRENDS:

* Patriots are 5-0 ATS in their last five games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous outing.
* Ravens are 19-6-2 ATS in their last 27 games vs. teams with winning records.
* Road team is 4-0-1 ATS in their last five meetings.


Chicago Bears at Philadelphia Eagles (-3, 55.5)

Chicago would like to keep some distance between itself and the Packers, who visit the Bears in the regular-season finale. The offense is humming right along no matter who is under center but the defense is an issue, surrendering an average of 31 points over the last four games and ranking last in the NFL against the run. Chicago RB Matt Forte has gone over 100 yards rushing in three straight games.

Philadelphia will be scoreboard-watching early in the day, needing a loss by the Cowboys to make a win over the Bears a division-clincher. The Eagles will also be looking for more out of a pass defense that is ranked 31st in the league. Eagles QB Nick Foles passed for a career-high 428 yards last week but has thrown an interception in each of the last two games after going his first seven starts without a pick.

LINE: Philadelphia opened as a 3.5-point fave, but has been bet down to -3. The total is up one point to 55.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-60s with a 53 percent chance of showers and wind blowing across the width of the field at 8 mph.
POWER RANKINGS: Chicago (-2.0) + Philadelphia (-2.5) + home field (-3.0) = Eagles -3.5
TRENDS:

* Bears are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 December games.
* Eagles are 4-1 ATS in their last five games on grass.
* Over is 17-4 in Chicago's last 21 games following a SU win.


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[Udog]

NFL

Sunday, December 22

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Saints at Panthers: What bettors need to know
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New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers (-3, 46.5)

The NFL postseason officially doesn't begin for two more weeks, but Carolina Panthers coach Ron Rivera considers Sunday's rematch against the visiting New Orleans Saints his team's first playoff game. "The next two games as far as I'm concerned are exactly that," Rivera told reporters. "There's a lot of importance to this game because of the importance going forward. This is about as big as it gets." The Saints can clinch the NFC South title and a first-round bye with a win, while a Panthers victory would clinch a playoff spot and put Carolina in position to claim the division and the No. 2 seed with a win next week at Atlanta.

The Saints, who were sloppy in a 27-16 loss at St. Louis last week, will try to duplicate their performance from a 31-13 home win over Carolina two weeks ago, while the Panthers have studied New Orleans' last two losses in search of wrinkles that could help reverse the result. "There were some mistakes in that game, some things that we didn't do very well and that we have to do better," Rivera told reporters. "We'll have to take a real good look at (the two losses) and see which of those things mesh well with what we do and maybe try to incorporate those things." New Orleans has won five of the past seven meetings but lost 35-27 in its most recent trip to Carolina last season.

TV: 1 p.m. ET, Fox.

LINE: Carolina opened -3. The total is up one point from the opener of 45.5.

WEATHER: There is an 81 percent chance of rain in the forecast. Wind will blow across the field at 13 mph.

ABOUT THE SAINTS (10-4): Drew Brees and New Orleans got the better of Carolina's stingy defense in the first meeting, in large part because they held on to the ball - eight of the Saints' 17 turnovers have come in their four losses. Brees (4,500 yards, 34 TDs, 10 INTs) is on pace for his third straight 5,000-yard season and put up 313 yards and four touchdowns against the Panthers two weeks ago. The defense continues to impress statistically, ranking fifth in total yards and points allowed, but the recent lack of takeaways is alarming with just two in the past seven games.

ABOUT THE PANTHERS (10-4): The Saints are the only team to beat Carolina since Week 5, as the Panthers have won nine of 10 to move to the cusp of their first playoff berth since 2008. Coincidentally, New Orleans is also the only team all season that did not commit a turnover against the Panthers, whose dominant defense has racked up 27 takeaways. DeAngelo Williams (743 yards, two TDs) and quarterback Cam Newton (507 yards, six TDs) lead a powerful running game, but the Panthers likely will need to get the passing game going to outscore Brees and the Saints.

TRENDS:

* Under is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings in Carolina.
* Saints are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 meetings.
* Saints are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games.
* Under is 4-0 in Panthers last four vs. NFC.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. New Orleans TE Jimmy Graham has six 100-yard games, tied for the most in a season by a tight end in NFL history.

2. Newton's 89 total touchdowns (61 passing, 28 rushing) are the second-most for an NFL player in his first three seasons, trailing only Dan Marino (100).

3. The Saints cut K Garrett Hartley and signed Shayne Graham. Hartley was 22-of-30 on field goals this season, including two misses last week.


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[Udog]

NFL

Sunday, December 22

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Colts at Chiefs: What bettors need to know
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Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs (-7, 45)

The Indianapolis Colts and Kansas City Chiefs are already locked into the playoffs, but where they're seeded is still in doubt as they square off Sunday in Kansas City. The Colts have clinched the AFC South but could still be seeded anywhere from first to fourth, while the Chiefs will get at least a wild card but likely need two more wins - and at least one Denver loss - to win the AFC West. It's an incredibly even matchup on paper, as the teams' season averages are separated by 3.9 yards of total offense and 2.6 yards of total defense.

The teams could meet again in Indianapolis in two weeks in the playoffs, but Kansas City coach Andy Reid says that won't affect either club's approach Sunday. "I think you prepare yourself the same way. … You go get yourself ready to play four quarters of good football," Reid told reporters. "If you play them again, you get yourself ready again. We're far along into the season where … you're not going to run out of plays." The Colts have won in four of their last five trips to Kansas City, including a 20-13 victory in Week 16 last season.

TV: 1 p.m. ET, CBS.

LINE: The Chiefs opened -6.5 and are now -7. The total opened at 41.5 and is up to 45.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-20s with mostly cloudy skies. Wind will blow toward the SE endzone at 12 mph.

ABOUT THE COLTS (9-5): Indianapolis has been wildly inconsistent following its 4-1 start, alternating wins and losses in nine games since, and the Colts are coming off a strong performance in a 25-3 victory over Houston, so they might be due for another letdown. Second-year quarterback Andrew Luck (3,299 yards, 21 TDs, 9 INTs) has been solid, but the Colts haven't generated much on the ground since the trade for Trent Richardson. The defense gives up a lot of yards but also wreaks its share of havoc with Robert Mathis (16.5 sacks, six forced fumbles) and Darius Butler (four interceptions) leading the way.

ABOUT THE CHIEFS (11-3): Kansas City's defense led the way during its 9-0 start - the Chiefs allow an AFC-low 18.2 points per game and have the best turnover margin in the league at plus-21 - but the offense has been impressive the past two weeks. The Chiefs have rolled up 101 points in consecutive wins at Washington and Oakland and they've topped 28 points in four straight games. Jamaal Charles is the catalyst, leading the team in rushing yards (1,181), receptions (65), receiving yards (655) and scoring 18 touchdowns.

TRENDS:

* Colts are 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings in Kansas City.
* Chiefs are 0-4 ATS in their last four home games.
* Over is 4-0 in Colts last four road games.
* Over is 4-0 in Chiefs last four games overall.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Kansas City's 11 wins are tied with the 2008 Miami Dolphins and the 2012 Colts for the most victories in NFL history by a team that won two or fewer games the previous season.

2. Luck needs 248 passing yards to pass Cam Newton (7,920) for the most by an NFL quarterback in his first two seasons, and he needs 77 rushing yards to pass Mike Pagel (441) for the most in a season by a Colts quarterback.

3. Smith (384) needs three rushing yards to pass Tyler Thigpen for the most in a season by a Chiefs quarterback.


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[Udog]

NFL injury report: Four injuries undervalued by oddsmakers

When marquee players go down with injuries, oddsmakers notice and value is lost for bettors. The key is to find lesser-known players that could have an impact on the scoreboard. Here are four NFL injuries not to undervalue in Week 16:

Peyton Hillis, RB, New York Giants (Out, concussion)

While the Giants have been mathematically eliminated, the Lions still have a fighting chance to make the post-season. While Detroit needs tons of help, it is still necessary to win their remaining two games. Wide receiver Victor Cruz and running back Peyton Hillis have been ruled out for Sunday for injury related reasons. Offensive lineman David Diehl and wide receiver Jerrel Jernigan are questionable for Sunday. The 30th ranked scoring offense will definitely struggle scoring more than their averaged 17.9 points. The Giants play the fourth ranked rushing defense allowing an average of 98.6 yards per game. The Lions actually have something to play for and will likely show up Sunday at home.

The Giants are 9-point underdogs on the road against the Lions. The total is 49.


Chris Clemons, DE, Seattle Seahawks (Probable, elbow)

Seattle plays the top-ranked rushing defense in the Cardinals who are allowing an average of 83.2 yards per game. The Cardinals are tied for seventh in sacks with 41.0 and are ranked fifth overall with 19 interceptions. With wide receiver Percy Harvin still questionable and running back Robert Turbin questionable, the Seahawks might not put up as many points as some expect. The Cardinals saw wide receiver Larry Fitzgerald and quarterback Carson Palmer returning to practice Thursday and are now listed as questionable for Sunday. With these two key players returning, the Cardinals will attempt to make the post-season and improve on their 9-5 record. The Cards may be more competitive than they are given credit for.

The Cardinals are 10.5-point underdogs on the road against Seattle, with the total 43.0.


Aaron Williams, S, Buffalo Bills (Out, ribs)

The Bills host the 8-6 Dolphins who are competing for the sixth seed in the AFC. The Bills will be without wide receiver Steve Johnson (personal reasons) and hope to have Fred Jackson healthy (probable) after nursing a rib injury. The Bills will attempt to put up points without quarterback EJ Manuel. All season, the Bills have struggled only completing 34 percent of their third-down passes ranking them fourth-worst in the NFL. On the defensive side with Aaron Williams out, the Bills will likely continue to give up big yardage plays - something they have struggled with all year. The Bills have given up 13 passes of 40 or more yards and give up the most rushes of 20 or more yards.

The Bills are 2.5-point home favorite against Miami. The total is 42.5.


Maurice Jones Drew, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars (Questionable, hamstring)

While the word "playoffs" and "Jaguars" never go in the same sentence, the Jaguars did put up four wins this season which is better than most predicted. The Jags are running out of healthy offensive players with running back Maurice Jones-Drew questionable, tight end Marcedes Lewis questionable, WR Cecil Shorts on IR, guard Will Rackley on IR and their backup guard Austin Pasztor also questionable Sunday. The Jaguars are ranked dead-last in the league in points scored (15.8) and are 30th or worse in total yards and rushing yards. The Jaguars have only completed 32 percent of their third-down conversion attempts. The Titans travel to Jacksonville looking for their first division win of the year and revenge over their 29-27 loss to the Jaguars earlier in 2013.

The Titans are 5-point favorites on the road against Jacksonville. The total is 44.

[Udog]

NFL weather report: Sunday's forecasts

Find out how weather will impact your NFL bets for Sunday's matchups:

Cleveland Browns at New York Jets (-2.5, 40.5)
Temperatures will be in the mid-60s with a 54 percent chance of rain. Wind will blow toward the N endzone at 12 mph.

Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs (-7, 45)
Temperatures will be in the mid-20s with cloudy skies. Wind will blow toward the SE endzone at 12 mph. There is a small 10 percent chance of rain.

Minnesota Vikings at Cincinnati Bengals (-8.5, 47.5)
Temperatures will be in the mid-50s with partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow across the field at 14 mph. There is a 54 percent chance of rain in the forecast.

Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars (+5, 44)
Temperatures will be in the low-80s with partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow toward the N endzone at 14 mph.

Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (+2.5, 42.5)
Forecasts are calling for rain with wind blowing across the field at 9 mph. Temperatures will be in the low-50s.

New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers (-3, 46.5)
There is an 81 percent chance of rain with wind blowing across the field at 12 mph. Temperatures will be in the low-70s.

Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins (+2.5, 53.5)
There is a 51 percent chance of thunderstorms in the forecast. Temperatures will be in the low-70s with wind blowing across the field at 14 mph.

Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (-10.5, 43)
Temperatures will be in the high-40s with a 59 percent chance of showers. Wind will blow toward the N endzone at 10 mph.

Oakland Raiders at San Diego Chargers (-10, 50.5)
Temperatures will be in the mid-60s with clear skies. Wind will blow toward the SE endzone at 4 mph.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Green Bay Packers (-2.5, 45)
The forecast is calling for snow in Green Bay with temperatures in the low-20s. Wind will blow toward the S endzone at 12 mph.

New England Patriots at Baltimore Ravens (-2.5, 45)
There is a 51 percent chance of thunderstorms in the forecast. Temperatures will be in the high-60s with wind blowing across the field at 7 mph.

Chicago Bears at Philadelphia Eagles (-3, 55.5)
There is a 53 percent chance of rain with temperatures in the low-60s. Wind will blow toward the N endzone at 8 mph.

[Udog]

NFL Week 16 betting road map: Three pitfalls to avoid Sunday

The final weeks of the NFL season are some of the hardest to handicap. From bad weather, tanking teams, possible spoilers, and franchises fighting for the playoffs, there are plenty of traps along the way for bettors in late December. However if you can find the right angle, there is more than enough value to go around.

Here’s a NFL Week 16 road map, plotting a course through those pitfalls Sunday.

Tanking team

Jacksonville is in the midst of a race with the St. Louis Rams (who have Washington's pick) and the Oakland Raiders for a Top-3 pick in the NFL draft. With both the Raiders and the Jaguars sitting at 4-10, both teams can't really afford to win another game, especially Jacksonville.

The team has problems filling the stadium thanks to a string of losing seasons in the small Florida market and desperately needs a franchise player to draw crowds. The Jaguars are 5-point home underdogs hosting Tennessee Sunday.


Playing for coach

The Raiders might be a prime tanking candidate if not for the recent rumors that respected head coach Dennis Allen is on the hot seat. With the Raiders 4-2-1 ATS away from the Oakland Coliseum and already posting an upset win over the Chargers early in the season, Oakland’s added motivation could make this a close game with their California rivals.

It’s a good value spot for the Raiders when you throw in the travelling army of Silver and Black fans that invade San Diego and rookie QB Matt McGloin trying to earn a chance in 2014 against a soft Chargers secondary.


Spoiler alert

Buffalo will be looking to upset the Miami Dolphins in a big way at Ralph Wilson Stadium Sunday. The Bills can't really tank at 5-9 and are a stellar 5-1 ATS in the friendly confines of upstate New York this season.

The Bills pass rush, led by Mario Williams, should give a Dolphins team, well noted for its offensive line issues, serious troubles. Miami has been playing well and has worked its way into the playoff picture after upsetting the Patriots at home. But Buffalo is a very good home team that matches up well with the Fins.

[Udog]

Essential betting tidbits for Week 16 of NFL football

- Cleveland WR Josh Gordon has 841 receiving yards and six touchdowns over his previous five games.

- Jets rookie QB Geno Smith has thrown at least one interception in 12 of 14 games this season, and has posted single digit QBR totals six times.

- Kansas City is the first team in league history to score multiple touchdowns via interception (five), kickoff return (two), punt return (two) and fumble return (two) in the same season.

- The Indianapolis Colts are surrendering the fifth-highest average rushing yardage per game (128.9). Chiefs RB Jamaal Charles averages 156.5 yards in two career games against the Colts.

- The Bengals, in the hunt for home-field advantage in the playoffs, are 6-0 in Cincinnati this season while outscoring opponents 199-103 in those games.

- Vikings RB Adrian Peterson, ranked second in the NFL with 1,221 rushing yards, is expected to play Sunday after missing last week's game with a foot injury.

- Denver Broncos QB Peyton Manning gets a reprieve from the cold in Houston this week after playing his previous four games in chilly weather. Manning has thrown for 3,561 yards with 35 touchdowns and seven interceptions in 10 games where the temperature at kickoff was above 41 degrees Fahrenheit.

- The Broncos (-10) are the top Covers consensus ATS pick against Houston (78.5 percent).

- Playing for injured RB Maurice Jones-Drew last week, Jordan Todman rumbled for 109 yards and added four catches for 44 yards in a loss to Buffalo. Todman may start again this week with Jones-Drew questionable.

- Tennessee has lost all four of its divisional games so far in 2013, though none of the defeats came by more than eight points.

- Expect a low-scoring game in Buffalo, where the Bills host a Miami Dolphins squad that has played the "under" in eight of its last nine encounters with AFC East opponents.

- Buffalo comes into Sunday's game needing one sack to equal the unofficial franchise record of 50 set by the 1964 edition. It's a good bet to happen against a Dolphins team that has allowed the most sacks in the NFL (51).

- The Carolina Panthers had no answer for the New Orleans Saints in their last encounter, allowing quarterback Drew Brees to rack up 313 yards and four touchdowns in a 31-13 victory.

- The Panthers are tied for second in the NFC in turnover differential (plus-11), and are the only team in the NFL to rank in the top five in both passing yards allowed (211.4 per game) and rushing yards against (84.9).

- Washington QB Kirk Cousins makes his third career NFL start against a Cowboys secondary allowing the most passing yards in the league (4,163).

- Dallas has won all four of its divisional games, including a 31-16 home triumph over the Redskins in Week 6.

- The St. Louis Rams are the lone NFC West lightweight when it comes to ATS play, going 6-8 so far. The Seattle Seahawks, San Francisco 49ers and Arizona Cardinals are all 10-4 ATS through the first 14 weeks.

- The Tampa Bay defense has shown a proficiency when it comes to buckling down after a rough loss, with the "under" going 5-0 in the Buccaneers' last five games following a double-digit loss at home. Tampa Bay fell 33-14 to visiting San Francisco last week.

- The Seahawks have been nearly invincible at home this season, winning all six games by an average of 18.7 points. Their 14-game home winning streak is the longest in franchise history.

- Arizona WR Larry Fitzgerald (concussion) is expected to play Sunday after practicing throughout the week. Fitzgerald was nullified in the last meeting between the teams, finishing with two catches for 17 yards in a 34-22 loss.

- Lions QB Matthew Stafford has struggled mightily over his last two games, throwing for just 386 combined yards with one touchdown and three interceptions. Stafford has never faced the Giants.

- New York is 5-9-0 ATS on the season, tied with Atlanta for the third-worst mark in the NFC. Only Washington (4-10-0) and Chicago (4-9-1) have been worse.

- Oakland's improving offense and deteriorating defense have made the "over" a strong play since the midway point of the season, going 6-0-1 in the Raiders' last seven games. The over/under for Sunday's game in San Diego is 50 1/2.

- Philip Rivers had his way with the Raiders' pass defence in their previous encounter - erupting for 411 yards and a pair of scores - but also had three interceptions in the 27-17 Oakland victory.

- The Steelers have been one of the hottest ATS plays since early-November, going 5-1-0 over that stretch. Pittsburgh is a 2 1/2-point underdog at Green Bay despite the Packers being without QB Aaron Rodgers (collarbone).

- Green Bay has struggled ATS, going 1-6-0 in its last seven contests. That includes an 0-4 stretch ATS in its previous four home games.

- Patriots QB Tom Brady has put a difficult start to the season behind him, averaging better than 370 passing yards with 14 touchdowns and four interceptions over his last six games.

- The Ravens are last in the NFL at just three yards per rush attempt and have scored only six touchdowns on the ground. The Patriots are surrendering 4.4 yards per carry, the eighth-highest mark in the league.

- The Philadelphia pass defense is 31st in yards allowed, while the Bears' Brandon Marshall and Alston Jeffery are the most prolific receiving duo in the league with a total of 2,450 yards.

- Eagles QB Nick Foles passed for a career-high 428 yards last week, and has 23 touchdown passes against just two interceptions.

[Udog]

Week 16 action report: Public all over Carolina

Another NFL season is coming down to the wire for and while there is much on the line for many teams trying to capture division titles and playoff berths, others are playing just for pride.

We talk to an oddsmaker from BetDSI, about the biggest line moves in Week 16 and where those odds could end up come kickoff on Sunday.

New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers - Open: -3, Move: N/A

The winner of this game will control their own destiny when it comes to claiming the NFC South division crown. With the Saints stumbling in St. Louis and the Panthers taking care of business last week, the public has sided with Carolina.

"This is the highest volume game of the week for sure, with close to zero action on New Orleans," an oddsmaker from BetDSI tells Covers. "Bet count and money wagered are both pushing three-to-one in favor of the Panthers and there is no sharp opinion on the game at all to this point. The only New Orleans wagers hitting the board are in the form of teaser plays."


Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs - Open: -6.5, Move: -7

This game could go a long way in determining seeding in the AFC playoffs. The Colts, who were giant killers early in the season need to improve quickly if they hope to be anymore than one-and-done in the postseason. While the Chiefs are still clinging to hope they can snatch the NFC West back from Denver. Despite all this, the action on this game is based purely on the line.

"This matchup is simply about the number," BetDSI told Covers. "When the line bounces to -6.5, the money flows to the Chiefs. When the number jumps to -7, money flows to the Colts."


Arizona Cardinal at Seattle Seahawks - Open: -10.5, Move: -10

The ultra-surprising nine-win Arizona Cardinals wouldn't be in the playoffs if the season ended today, but even more impressive is their 10-4 ATS mark. Sunday they travel to Seattle to face the Seahawks and the 12th Man where they opened as double-digit dogs.

"The number has been to 10.5 all the way down to 9," BetDSI said. "There was sharp money backing the Cardinals at the 10.5 number. That is keeping us at the 10 value right now, taking public teaser action into consideration as well."

[Udog]

NFL

Monday, December 23

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Monday Night Football betting: Falcons at 49ers
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Atlanta Falcons at San Francisco 49ers (-14, 45)

With a home playoff game unlikely, the San Francisco 49ers probably are playing their final game at Candlestick Park on Monday night when they host the Atlanta Falcons. And it's a big one - the 49ers can clinch a playoff spot with a win or an Arizona loss. "I get chills just talking about it," 49ers tackle Anthony Davis told the team's website. "It's not the best looking stadium, but there's so much history there. It's an honor to be able to play in it the last year it will be here. I don't take that for granted."

Atlanta has won four straight meetings in the regular season, but the Falcons have fallen precipitously since their 28-24 home loss to the 49ers in last season's NFC Championship and are tied for the third-worst record in the league. "You fight tooth and nail for wins on Sundays, Mondays, Thursdays, whatever the case may be, and they've had some close losses and some games that haven't gone their way," 49ers coach Jim Harbaugh told reporters. "This year, more than any year I've been coaching or in this league, everybody's fighting tooth and nail for these wins and this will be no different Monday night."

TV: 8:40 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE: The 49ers opened as 12-point home faves and have been bet to -14. The total as stayed put at 45.

WEATHER: It will be clear with temperatures in the mid 50s.

POWER RANKINGS: Atlanta (+5.5) - San Francisco (-6.5) + home field (-3) = San Francisco -15

ABOUT THE FALCONS (4-10, 5-9 ATS): Atlanta's season never got off the ground in large part because the running game never got going, but the Falcons have won two of their last three and are trying to salvage something. "Doesn't matter if you're 2-10 or 10-2, when you start that fourth quarter (of the season), we all have the goal and that is to finish strong," coach Mike Smith told reporters. "The teams that are playing for playoff spots, they want to finish strong as well. I don't think it really changes your attitude at all." The passing game has been a bright spot, but 12 of Matt Ryan's 14 interceptions have come on the road.

ABOUT THE 49ERS (10-4, 10-4 ATS): San Francisco again boasts one of the league's top defenses and is coming off a dominant performance in a 33-14 win at Tampa Bay last week. The passing game hasn't had to do too much thanks to the NFL's No. 5 ground game with Frank Gore (1,017 yards, 8 TDs) and quarterback Colin Kaepernick (449 yards, 3 TDs) leading the way. The receiving corps keeps getting stronger, though, with Michael Crabtree and Mario Manningham back from injuries to complement Anquan Boldin and tight end Vernon Davis.

TRENDS:

* Underdog is 9-4 ATS in their last 13 meetings.
* Falcons are 3-7 ATS in thir last 10 meetings.
* Falcons are 2-6 ATS in their last eight meetings in San Francisco.
* 49ers are 5-0 ATS in their last five games versus a team with a losing record.


EXTRA POINTS:

1. The 49ers are 11-0 when Kaepernick starts and has a rating of 100 or better, while the Falcons are 34-2 when Ryan does the same.

2. The Falcons are 6-0 in games played on the West Coast under coach Mike Smith.

3. Atlanta WR Roddy White has caught a pass in a franchise-record 111 consecutive games, while TE Tony Gonzalez has a reception in 209 straight games dating to his time with Kansas City - the second-longest streak in NFL history.


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[Udog]

NFL

Monday, December 23

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Tale of the tape: Falcons at 49ers
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The San Francisco 49ers still have a slim shot at the NFC West title, but they will need a win when they host the Atlanta Falcons in the final NFL Monday nighter of the year.

Thanks to the Cardinals' improbable win in Seattle Sunday, the Niners can cling to hope that Monday night's matchup with the Falcons might not be the last game at Candlestick Park. For Falcons, the season may be long over but they still have revenge on their minds after last season's crushing 28-24 loss in the NFC Championship Game, so this game is definitely still circled on their schedule.

Here's the breakdown in our betting tale of the tape:

Offense

Due to early-season injuries to Julio Jones, Roddy White and Steven Jackson, the Falcons offense has been a shell of its former shelf. But White and Jackson are finally getting back to form and the offense is gaining steam. White has once again created space for the run game and has hauled in 25 receptions in the last four games. While in the same span the rushing attack - that ranked dead last in the NFL - has averaged 113 yards per game with Jackson finding the end zone five times.

Speaking of receivers returning from injury, it appears Michael Crabtree has been the missing piece to the Niners offense. The ground game is still the focal point, running at a clip of 137.1 yards per game, but Kaepernick seems more comfortable in the pocket with Crabtree as an option. The Niners are on a four-game win streak where Kaepernick has thrown seven touchdowns to just one interception with a QB rating of 105.6.

Edge: San Francisco 49ers


Defense

The Falcons are young on defense, starting five rookie last week. They are 28th in total yards (386.3), 27th in passing yards (254.9), 29th in rushing yards (131.4) and points allowed per game. They are also second last in interceptions and have a league-worst 28 total sacks this season.

People began to wonder if the heralded San Francisco defense would be the same after losing key pieces this offseason and having to cope with Aldon Smith's
drama. But guys like rookie Eric Reid and Ahmad Brooks have stepped up big time for the Niners, helping them post the second fewest yards per game in the NFL. NaVarro Bowman has been the anchor for the defense that has only allowed an average of 12.5 points against in the past four games, leading the team with 124 tackles and four sacks.

Edge: San Francisco 49ers


Special Teams

When they have had the chance, the Falcons have been decent at returning kickoffs, averaging 24.4 yards per return. But they have only returned 24 kickoffs this season though, good for the third fewest in the league. Kicker Matt Bryant has only missed three field goals but because of their deficiencies on offense he only has 24 attempts. And its not like Bryant has lost power in his boot, he's nailed three kicks from beyond 50 yards.

Punter Andy Lee may be one of the best weapons the Niners have that no one talks about. He is second in the league with a net punting average of 44.2 yards per punt and has 23 of his punts downed inside the 20-yard line with just seven touchbacks. Phil Dawson is another kicker with an ageless leg. He has hit on 27-of-30 field goals and is good on all three of his attempts from beyond 50 yards, including a 55-yarder.

Edge: San Francisco 49ers


Notable Quotable

"We desperately want to win. I'm sure they feel the same way. It certainly has been evidenced this whole season that everybody's fighting tooth and nail for wins. No team, no exception. The competition has been the most heated." - 49ers coach Jim Harbaugh of the rematch aspect

"The first (point of emphasis) is winning the turnover battle and the second one is winning the explosive battle. You put those two things together, and it's the toxic differential that you look at." - Falcons coach Mike Smith on winning the turnover battle


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[Udog]

NFL Opening Line Report: Parity makes Week 17 worth it

Week 17 of the NFL season is usually a mess.

You have a handful of games with playoff implications while the majority of the card is loaded with teams just finishing up a lost season or resting their stars before the postseason.

But, thanks to the vast amount of parity in the NFL this season, Week 17 is no longer the most feared week for books and bettors. It could just be one of the best weeks ever.

“When you have incentive, the line is easier to make,” Peter Korner, founder of the Nevada-based odds service The Sports Club, tells Covers. “All those rankings and stats we look at make sense. You’re not wondering about who is playing hard or protecting their assets.”

All but a few of the Week 17 games have some sort of say in how the playoff picture is painted, including two divisional matchups that hold a golden ticket to the tournament for whichever team wins Sunday.

The NFC East title is on the line when the Philadelphia Eagles visit the Dallas Cowboys. Korner says his team of oddsmakers had the Cowboys as the early favorites before the Eagles thumped the Bears on Sunday night. Now, this game is being dealt with Philadelphia as a 2.5-point favorite. Despite Dallas’ tendency to tank in these must-win games, the line is based strictly on current form.

“We’re factoring in what just happened,” says Korner. “Dallas squeaked one out and the Eagles were on national TV romping. I think Philly as a small favorite is the way to go.”

As for the NFC North, the Chicago Bears and Green Bay Packers duke it out for the division. Korner sent out a suggested line of Chicago -5 with Packers QB Aaron Rodgers out.

If Rodgers does return for the first time since breaking his collarbone in Week 9, this line will rise – but maybe not as much as bettors would think. Most weeks, Rodgers would be worth at least a touchdown. But at less than 100 percent, Rodgers impact on the spread declines.

“I don’t know if the bettors will let us have too big of a jump,” Korner says. “I don’t think (Rodgers) is worth as much in a one-game situation where it could disrupt the flow that (backup QB Matt) Flynn may have. And he’s not healthy. If he would be a 100 percent Sunday, he would have been 100 percent this past game when they really needed him.”

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New Orleans Saints (-13, 47)

The Saints need to win in order to punch their passport to the playoffs. New Orleans hasn’t looked like a Super Bowl contender in recent weeks but comes back to the Superdome, where its offense is averaging 32.9 points compared to 17.8 points on the road.

“We sent out 13.5 on this,” says Korner. “This is a game New Orleans is going to want to get out to a big lead and just cost from there. I think that the way bettors see this, the Saints need the win and they’re going to draw the money. And we don’t want to be cheap on any team that needs the win.”

Baltimore Ravens at Cincinnati Bengals (-5.5, 44.5)

Both teams need to win Sunday. Cincinnati already has the AFC North locked up but can vastly improve its playoff seeding with a victory and some outside help. Baltimore is scratching and clawing for a AFC Wild Card spot after an embarrassing loss to New England Sunday.

“We sent out this at Bengals -7.5. The -5.5 is way too low,” says Korner. “Cincinnati isn’t relaxing. It may be more important for them to win and improve their playoff rankings. I know Baltimore needs to win but coming off a horrible loss and being on the road – I just don’t think they show up as much as Cincinnati will.”