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**Udog** · 12-19-2013, 10:38 AM

NFL Opening Line Report: Patriots aren't the same without Gronkowski

The final weeks of the NFL schedule can sometimes be a craps shoot, with teams battling for playoff positioning against others who have given up on the year. But, thanks to wide-open postseason races in both conferences, Week 16 could be one of the most interesting slates of football all season.

Things got especially intriguing in the AFC following the Baltimore Ravens’ win over the Detroit Lions on Monday Night Football. That victory thrusts the defending Super Bowl champs into the sixth seed in the AFC with room for improvement in Sunday’s home date with the New England Patriots.

Peter Korner, founder of the Nevada-based odds service The Sports Club, says they sent out a suggested spread of Baltimore -2.5 and feels even better about that number following Monday’s win. The biggest factor behind having the Ravens as slight home favorites is the injury to Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski, who was noticeably missed in Sunday’s loss to Miami.

“We rarely get to learn this much about one team in a single season, but we’ve seen (New England) sputter without Gronkowski to start the season, then play well with him, then sputter again without him,” says Korner. “Without Gronkowski, they’re not a 10-4 team. We saw that last week. The magic wasn’t there in the red zone and New England fell an interception short of a win.”

Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5, 44)

This game holds weight for both teams but oddsmakers see the Chiefs with some added motivation at home Sunday. Kansas City is still in the hunt for the top overall record – and home field – in the AFC and also the AFC West crown.

The Colts, on the other hand, have already punched their postseason ticket with an AFC South title and could get a first-round bye if all goes right for them. But more than likely will be playing during the Wild Card weekend.

Korner says his stable of oddsmakers brought spreads between -4 and -7 to the table and settled on the higher end of the scale, due to the Chiefs current form heading into Week 16. Kansas City has won back-to-back road outings in blowout fashion.

“The Chiefs have scored a combined 101 points the past two weeks, and that’s what will stick out to bettors,” he says. “The mystique is gone after losing a few but they’ve regrouped and have the edge here at home.”

New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers (-3, 47)

These teams played just two short weeks ago, making this spread an easy task for oddsmakers. The total, however, could be a bit trickier. New Orleans has suffered a major power outage on the road, scoring just 18.4 points per road game compared to 32.9 points at home. The Saints knocked off the Panthers 31-13 at home in Week 14.

“This is a revenge game for the Panthers, but all told, this is a pretty equal matchup,” says Korner. “The total wasn’t that bad to make. We had something to go by, with them playing recently, so we sent out 46 and now we’re seeing that move a bit. We didn’t have to think on it too much.”

Chicago Bears at Philadelphia Eagles (-3, 56)

The Eagles could earn the fourth seed in the NFC bracket and a win over Chicago would give them the inside track on any tie breakers versus the NFC North contenders. Philadelphia looked like it was the hottest team heading toward the postseason, but laid in egg in Minnesota.

The Bears are right in the mix of the NFC postseason hunt but will need to win the NFC North to make the cut. A win over the Eagles helps but a loss isn’t sudden death for Chicago.

Jay Cutler led the Bears to a second-straight win Sunday, replacing the serviceable Josh McCown under center. Korner admits he didn’t think there was much of a difference between the two QBs but says the bettors proved him wrong.

“I’m surprised. I dissed the Bears the last two weeks and they proved me wrong,” he says. “I realize that there is a difference between McCown and Cutler, but I don’t think it’s huge. However, the bettors do. They think Cutler is the difference maker.”

**Udog** · 12-19-2013, 10:39 AM

NFL line watch: Back Jets now versus terrible Browns

Spread to bet now

Cleveland Browns (+2) at New York Jets

Does anyone anywhere believe that the Browns have any life at all left in their bodies?

Another season has come and just about gone, and the Browns once again find themselves in familiar territory – with a string of late-season losses (the current tally is five in a row), little interest from the home fans and in firm possession of last place in the AFC North. Merry Christmas, Browns fans.

Now line up for your lumps of coal.

After getting booed off the field by the few remaining fans who had the misfortune of owning tickets to Sunday’s latest loss (38-31, to the Bears), Cleveland players must now lug a 4-10 record with them on the road, where the Brownies are 1-5 this season.

The Jets (5-2 at home this year) still have an outside shot at a wild card berth that could save the jobs of a lot of folks in Jersey, so they should be able to cover the deuce against an unmotivated Browns team.

Spread to wait on

Miami Dolphins (-2.5) at Buffalo Bills

The public is pounding the Dolphins hard after their big victory over the Patriots, with three of every four dollars down backing the Fish. With that much early action on Miami, bettors might be able to hang on until late in the week and see if the number goes to 3.

Miami’s win over New England took place in 84-degree weather against a Patriots team that is only a shadow of what it used to be.

The Bills are 7-7 overall and have yet to be blown out at home this season. And if the temperature is even half of that 84, the Dolphins will be delighted

Miami has three-straight wins and will be looking to snag a wild card playoff spot, but Buffalo also has motivation – if the Bills lose, it would probably mean a sixth straight last-place finish in the AFC East and a huge roster turnover. Advice here is to hang tight and wait for the line to lengthen a bit.

Total to watch

Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks(45)

Know this about the Seahawks – they play great defense, but they can also put points on the board at home. The poodle’s offense has put up 34 (vs. New Orleans), 41 (Minnesota) and 27 in its last three home games, so Seattle figures to be able to move the ball, even against a pretty good Cardinal team.

But, but, but ... Arizona QB Carson Palmer suffered a high ankle sprain in Sunday’s victory at Tennessee and is listed as questionable for Seattle.

The Seahawks figure to come hard at Palmer, who has never been known for his work against blitzes. Going into Seattle with a gimpy starting QB or, even worse, a second-stringer, is poison.

Under is the play, even with a moderate number of 45.

**Udog** · 12-19-2013, 10:40 AM

NFL Top 4: Potential playoff spoilers to watch out for

When you’re at the bottom of the conference standings at this point in the NFL season, there are two options: 1. Tank your remaining games and hope for a high draft pick. Or 2. Play out the remaining schedule and hope you can screw over someone’s postseason plans.

These four teams could be siding with the latter in the final weeks of the season. They have matchups with teams in the playoff mix and have shown a fighting spirit, which can be enough to throw a wrench in their opponents’ postseason plotting:

Minnesota Vikings (4-9-1 SU, 8-6 ATS)

The Vikings have a taste for spoiling playoff pushes already, knocking off the Eagles this past weekend. Minnesota is fighting tooth and nail down the stretch, going 3-2-1 SU and 5-1 ATS in its last six games. Even without RBs Adrian Peterson and Toby Gerhart, the Vikes keep chugging along with third-stringer Matt Asiata and backup QB Matt Cassel leading the charge. Minnesota can mess up playoff pictures in both conference with games against Cincinnati (Vikings +7.5) and Detroit left on the table.

Buffalo Bills (5-9 SU, 7-7 ATS)

Buffalo has only two wins in its last seven games but is still coming to play each Sunday. The Bills took a win from a turned-around Jaguars squad Sunday and host the Wild Card-chasing Dolphins in the cold at Ralph Wilson (Bills +2.5) this weekend. After that, Buffalo could snuff out the Patriots' push for home field with a finale in Foxborough. Buffalo already has its franchise QB in E.J. Manuel, so tanking is less likely. And, in an example of the Bills’ commitment to the season, WR Stevie Johnson played Sunday despite the sudden death of his mother the day before.

Atlanta Falcons (4-10 SU, 5-9 ATS)

The Falcons are a prideful franchise and would love nothing more than to spoil the 49ers’ playoff chances after being edged by San Francisco in the NFC Championship Game last January. Atlanta visits the Bay Area as a 13-point underdog in the final Monday Night Football of the season. The Falcons held on for a win over Washington in Week 15 and are 2-2 SU and 3-1 ATS in the last four outings. Coach Mike Smith is still tinkering with his lineups each week, looking to improve one game to the next. After facing the Niners, Atlanta can trip up NFC South rival Carolina in Week 17.

St. Louis Rams (6-8 SU, 6-8 ATS)

The Rams proved they’re not a team to be taken lightly with a dominant performance against New Orleans. St. Louis held the Saints to three points through three quarters and exploded for 27 points of its own, without top WR Tavon Austin in the lineup. The Rams are 5.5-point favorites hosting Tampa Bay Sunday but their big game comes in Seattle in Week 17. Depending on if Seattle locks down home field for the playoffs, St. Louis could be treating this challenge as its Super Bowl. The Rams put a scare in the Seahawks, losing 14-9 but covering as 13-point home dogs in Week 8.

**Udog** · 12-19-2013, 10:41 AM

Thursday Night Football: Over goes 12-4-1 in midweek matchups

With no more Thursday Night Football on the schedule, we decided to take a look back at those games and see how they fared for bettors.

The Over in those spots was the biggest success story, going 12-4-1 in the 17 Thursday nighters - including the three Thanksgiving games. The lone push was the Week 9 tilt between the Cincinnati Bengals and Miami Dolphins with the 22-20 score at the final gun matching the closing total.

Below is a list of the results of all games on Thursday with the closing lines in parenthesis.

Visiting team listed first.

Week 1: Baltimore 27, Denver 49 (-7.5, 48.5)
Week 2: New York Jets 10, New England 13 (-10.5, 43)
Week 3: Kansas City 26, Philadelphia 16 (-3, 50)
Week 4: San Francisco 35, St. Louis 11 (+3, 42.5)
Week 5: Buffalo 24, Cleveland 37 (-3.5, 40.5)
Week 6: New York Giants 21, Chicago 27 (-9.5, 46.5)
Week 7: Seattle 34, Arizona 22 (+5, 41)
Week 8: Carolina 31, Tampa Bay 13 (+6.5, 44)
Week 9: Cincinnati 20, Miami 22 (+3, 42)
Week 10: Washington 27, Minnesota 34 (+1, 48)
Week 11: Indianapolis 30, Tennessee 27 (+2.5, 42)
Week 12: New Orleans 17, Atlanta 13 (+7.5, 52.5)
Week 13: Green Bay 10, Detroit 40 (-7, 48.5)
Week 13: Oakland 24, Dallas 31 (-3, 49.5)
Week 13: Pittsburgh 20, Baltimore 22 (-3, 39.5)
Week 14: Houston 20, Jacksonville 27 (+3, 43.5)
Week 15: San Diego 27, Denver 20 (-10, 56.5)

Favorites ATS: 7-10
Favorites SU: 12-5
Underdogs ATS: 10-7
Underdogs SU: 5-12
Home team ATS: 7-10
Home team SU: 10-7
Road team ATS: 10-7
Road team SU: 7-10
Over/Under: 12-4-1

**Udog** · 12-19-2013, 10:42 AM

NFL
Dunkel

Week 16

Chicago at Philadelphia
The Eagles host a Chicago team that is coming off a 38-31 win over Cleveland and is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games following a SU victory. Philadelphia is the pick (-3) according to Dunkel, which has the Eagles favored by 13 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-3). Here are all of this week's picks.

SUNDAY, DECEMBER 22

Game 101-102: Miami at Buffalo (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 136.068; Buffalo 126.204
Dunkel Line: Miami by 10; 38
Vegas Line: Miami by 2 1/2; 43
Dunkel Pick: Miami (-2 1/2); Under

Game 103-104: New Orleans at Carolina (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 138.869; Carolina 139.379
Dunkel Line: Carolina by 1; 50
Vegas Line: Carolina by 3; 46
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (+3); Over

Game 105-106: Dallas at Washington (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 126.021; Washington 127.785
Dunkel Line: Washington by 2; 58
Vegas Line: Dallas by 3; 53
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+3); Over

Game 107-108: Tampa Bay at St. Louis (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 128.314; St. Louis 139.210
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 11; 39
Vegas Line: St. Louis by 4 1/2; 43
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (-4 1/2); Under

Game 109-110: Chicago at Philadelphia (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 127.960; Philadelphia 141.210
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 13 1/2; 48
Vegas Line: Philadelphia by 3; 56
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-3); Under

Game 111-112: Cleveland at NY Jets (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 126.027; NY Jets 123.904
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 2; 44
Vegas Line: NY Jets by 2 1/2; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (+2 1/2); Over

Game 113-114: Indianapolis at Kansas City (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indianapolis 130.212; Kansas City 133.717
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 3 1/2; 48
Vegas Line: Kansas City by 7; 44
Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (+7); Over

Game 115-116: Minnesota at Cincinnati (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 126.450; Cincinnati 141.329
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 15; 43
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 7; 48
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-7); Under

Game 117-118: Denver at Houston (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 141.319; Houston 122.900
Dunkel Line: Denver by 18 1/2; 48
Vegas Line: Denver by 10 1/2; 51 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Denver (-10 1/2); Under

Game 119-120: Tennessee at Jacksonville (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 123.915; Jacksonville 128.856
Dunkel Line: Jacksonville by 5; 49
Vegas Line: Tennessee by 5 1/2; 44
Dunkel Pick: Jacksonville (+5 1/2); Over

Game 121-122: Arizona at Seattle (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 139.612; Seattle 145.022
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 5 1/2; 49
Vegas Line: Seattle by 11; 44
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+11); Over

Game 123-124: NY Giants at Detroit (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Giants 125.987; Detroit 136.522
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 10 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: Detroit by 8 1/2; 49
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-8 1/2); Under

Game 125-126: Oakland at San Diego (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland 119.966; San Diego 141.817
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 22; 47
Vegas Line: San Diego by 10; 50 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-10); Under

Game 127-128: Pittsburgh at Green Bay (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 135.968; Green Bay 127.815
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 8; 49
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 129-130: New England at Baltimore (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New England 134.129; Baltimore 138.618
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 4 1/2; 41
Vegas Line: Baltimore by 2 1/2; 45 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-2 1/2); Under

MONDAY, DECEMBER 23

Game 131-132: Atlanta at San Francisco (8:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 129.779; San Francisco 139.849
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 10; 49
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 13; 45
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+13); Over

**Udog** · 12-19-2013, 10:42 AM

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 16

Sunday, December 22

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MIAMI (8 - 6) at BUFFALO (5 - 9) - 12/22/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 this season.
MIAMI is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 3-2 against the spread versus BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 3-2 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NEW ORLEANS (10 - 4) at CAROLINA (10 - 4) - 12/22/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 58-38 ATS (+16.2 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
CAROLINA is 50-26 ATS (+21.4 Units) in December games since 1992.
CAROLINA is 44-27 ATS (+14.3 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CAROLINA is 3-2 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 3-2 straight up against CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DALLAS (7 - 7) at WASHINGTON (3 - 11) - 12/22/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
DALLAS is 11-22 ATS (-13.2 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
DALLAS is 33-52 ATS (-24.2 Units) in December games since 1992.
DALLAS is 31-53 ATS (-27.3 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) as an underdog this season.
WASHINGTON is 71-98 ATS (-36.8 Units) in home games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 71-98 ATS (-36.8 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) against conference opponents this season.
WASHINGTON is 71-98 ATS (-36.8 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 4-1 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 3-2 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TAMPA BAY (4 - 10) at ST LOUIS (6 - 8) - 12/22/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in December games over the last 3 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 16-30 ATS (-17.0 Units) in a home game where the total is between 42.5 and 45 points since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 97-133 ATS (-49.3 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 104-136 ATS (-45.6 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
ST LOUIS is 1-0 against the spread versus TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
ST LOUIS is 1-0 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CHICAGO (8 - 6) at PHILADELPHIA (8 - 6) - 12/22/2013, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) against conference opponents this season.
CHICAGO is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
CHICAGO is 10-31 ATS (-24.1 Units) in road games in December games since 1992.
CHICAGO is 13-29 ATS (-18.9 Units) in road games in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
PHILADELPHIA is 156-120 ATS (+24.0 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
PHILADELPHIA is 10-19 ATS (-10.9 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 10-19 ATS (-10.9 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 1-0 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 1-0 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CLEVELAND (4 - 10) at NY JETS (6 - 8) - 12/22/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY JETS are 16-30 ATS (-17.0 Units) in home games in December games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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INDIANAPOLIS (9 - 5) at KANSAS CITY (11 - 3) - 12/22/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
INDIANAPOLIS is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games off a win against a division rival over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 16-7 ATS (+8.3 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in December games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS CITY is 1-1 against the spread versus INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
KANSAS CITY is 1-1 straight up against INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MINNESOTA (4 - 9 - 1) at CINCINNATI (9 - 5) - 12/22/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in home games this season.
CINCINNATI is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in home lined games this season.
CINCINNATI is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in home games in games played on turf this season.
MINNESOTA is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
MINNESOTA is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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DENVER (11 - 3) at HOUSTON (2 - 12) - 12/22/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 49-71 ATS (-29.1 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
DENVER is 19-10 ATS (+8.0 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 19-10 ATS (+8.0 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in all games this season.
HOUSTON is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in all lined games this season.
HOUSTON is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) against conference opponents this season.
HOUSTON is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 1-0 against the spread versus DENVER over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 1-0 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TENNESSEE (5 - 9) at JACKSONVILLE (4 - 10) - 12/22/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 10-23 ATS (-15.3 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
JACKSONVILLE is 4-1 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
JACKSONVILLE is 3-2 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ARIZONA (9 - 5) at SEATTLE (12 - 2) - 12/22/2013, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 23-9 ATS (+13.1 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 23-9 ATS (+13.1 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in a home game where the total is between 42.5 and 45 points over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) against conference opponents this season.
SEATTLE is 20-5 ATS (+14.5 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in home games in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 11-1 ATS (+9.9 Units) in December games over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 3-2 against the spread versus ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 3-2 straight up against ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NY GIANTS (5 - 9) at DETROIT (7 - 7) - 12/22/2013, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY GIANTS are 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) against NFC North division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
DETROIT is 23-43 ATS (-24.3 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
DETROIT is 48-70 ATS (-29.0 Units) as a favorite since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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OAKLAND (4 - 10) at SAN DIEGO (7 - 7) - 12/22/2013, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 27-50 ATS (-28.0 Units) in December games since 1992.
OAKLAND is 26-48 ATS (-26.8 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
OAKLAND is 3-2 against the spread versus SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons
SAN DIEGO is 3-2 straight up against OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PITTSBURGH (6 - 8) at GREEN BAY (7 - 6 - 1) - 12/22/2013, 4:25 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NEW ENGLAND (10 - 4) at BALTIMORE (8 - 6) - 12/22/2013, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BALTIMORE is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 80-47 ATS (+28.3 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 157-120 ATS (+25.0 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) off a division game over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 67-44 ATS (+18.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
BALTIMORE is 2-1 against the spread versus NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 2-1 straight up against NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Monday, December 23

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ATLANTA (4 - 10) at SAN FRANCISCO (10 - 4) - 12/23/2013, 8:40 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN FRANCISCO is 33-17 ATS (+14.3 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 33-17 ATS (+14.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 26-14 ATS (+10.6 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 28-9 ATS (+18.1 Units) when playing on Monday night since 1992.
SAN FRANCISCO is 24-10 ATS (+13.0 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN FRANCISCO is 1-0 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
SAN FRANCISCO is 1-0 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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**Udog** · 12-19-2013, 10:43 AM

NFL
Short Sheet

Week 16

Sunday, December 22

Miami at Buffalo, 1:00 ET
Miami: 8-2 ATS when playing with 6 or less days rest
Buffalo: 1-8 ATS after 1 or more consecutive wins

New Orleans at Carolina, 1:00 ET
New Orleans: 9-1 UNDER against conference opponents
Carolina: 30-11 ATS revenging a loss where opponent scored 28 or more points

Dallas at Washington, 1:00 ET
Dallas: 25-11 ATS after allowing 35 points or more last game
Washington: 2-8 ATS against conference opponents

Tampa Bay at St Louis, 1:00 ET
Tampa Bay: 17-7 OVER off 1 or more straight overs
St Louis: 16-30 ATS in a home game where the total is between 42.5 and 45

Chicago at Philadelphia, 8:30 ET
Chicago: 12-4 OVER after 1 or more consecutive wins
Philadelphia: 0-6 ATS in home games off an upset loss as a favorite

Cleveland at NY Jets, 1:00 ET
Cleveland: 6-0 ATS in road games after having lost 5 or 6 out of their last 7
NY Jets: 2-12 ATS off 1 or more straight overs

Indianapolis at Kansas City, 1:00 ET
Indianapolis: 10-2 ATS in December games
Kansas City: 1-9 ATS as a home favorite of 7 points or less

Minnesota at Cincinnati, 1:00 ET
Minnesota: 0-7 ATS off an upset win by 14 or more points as a home underdog
Cincinnati: 6-0 ATS in home lined games

Denver at Houston, 1:00 ET
Denver: 16-5 ATS in games played on a grass field
Houston: 2-8 ATS against conference opponents

Tennessee at Jacksonville, 1:00 ET
Tennessee: 8-2 OVER in games played on a grass field
Jacksonville: 3-11 ATS in home games

Arizona at Seattle, 4:05 ET
Arizona: 10-25 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of +3 or better
Seattle: 11-3 ATS in home games in games played on turf

NY Giants at Detroit, 4:05 ET
NY Giants: 6-0 ATS against NFC North division opponents
Detroit: 0-7 ATS off a non-conference game

Oakland at San Diego, 4:25 ET
Oakland: 1-8 ATS after a playing a game where 50 total points or more were scored
San Diego: 15-6 ATS off 1 or more consecutive unders

Pittsburgh at Green Bay, 4:25 ET
Pittsburgh: 7-3 ATS after the first month of the season
Green Bay: 1-6 ATS in the second half of the season

New England at Baltimore, 4:25 ET
New England: 0-6 ATS after gaining 400 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games
Baltimore: 11-2 ATS in home games off an upset win as a road underdog

Mon, Dec. 23

Atlanta at San Francisco, 8:40 ET
Atlanta: 38-59 ATS off a home win
San Francisco: 8-1 ATS in home games off a road win

**Udog** · 12-19-2013, 10:43 AM

NFL

Week 16

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Trend Report
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Sunday, December 22

1:00 PM
MINNESOTA vs. CINCINNATI
Minnesota is 0-4-1 SU in its last 5 games ,on the road
Minnesota is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Cincinnati
Cincinnati is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 5 games at home

1:00 PM
TAMPA BAY vs. ST. LOUIS
Tampa Bay is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against St. Louis
Tampa Bay is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of St. Louis's last 6 games when playing Tampa Bay
St. Louis is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Tampa Bay

1:00 PM
DALLAS vs. WASHINGTON
Dallas is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas's last 6 games on the road
Washington is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games at home
Washington is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games

1:00 PM
TENNESSEE vs. JACKSONVILLE
Tennessee is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games on the road
Tennessee is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
Jacksonville is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Tennessee
Jacksonville is 5-20 SU in its last 25 games

1:00 PM
MIAMI vs. BUFFALO
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami's last 7 games when playing Buffalo
Miami is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Buffalo
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Buffalo's last 10 games
Buffalo is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games

1:00 PM
INDIANAPOLIS vs. KANSAS CITY
Indianapolis is 17-8 SU in its last 25 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Indianapolis's last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Kansas City's last 5 games
Kansas City is 2-11 SU in its last 13 games when playing Indianapolis

1:00 PM
NEW ORLEANS vs. CAROLINA
New Orleans is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games
New Orleans is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Carolina is 7-2-1 ATS in its last 10 games
Carolina is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games

1:00 PM
CLEVELAND vs. NY JETS
Cleveland is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cleveland's last 5 games
NY Jets are 5-2 SU in their last 7 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 6 of the NY Jets last 8 games

1:00 PM
DENVER vs. HOUSTON
Denver is 21-4 SU in its last 25 games
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Denver's last 15 games
Houston is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Houston's last 7 games at home

4:05 PM
NY GIANTS vs. DETROIT
NY Giants are 8-3 SU in their last 11 games when playing Detroit
NY Giants are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games when playing on the road against Detroit
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Detroit's last 9 games
Detroit is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games

4:05 PM
ARIZONA vs. SEATTLE
Arizona is 3-11 SU in its last 14 games on the road
Arizona is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Seattle
The total has gone OVER in 13 of Seattle's last 19 games when playing Arizona
Seattle is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

4:25 PM
OAKLAND vs. SAN DIEGO
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Oakland's last 6 games on the road
Oakland is 1-10 SU in its last 11 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Diego's last 6 games when playing Oakland
San Diego is 16-4 SU in its last 20 games when playing Oakland

4:25 PM
NEW ENGLAND vs. BALTIMORE
New England is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games when playing Baltimore
New England is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Baltimore's last 9 games at home
Baltimore is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games

4:25 PM
PITTSBURGH vs. GREEN BAY
Pittsburgh is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games on the road
Pittsburgh is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Green Bay
Green Bay12-2-1 SU in its last 15 games at home
Green Bay is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing Pittsburgh

8:30 PM
CHICAGO vs. PHILADELPHIA
Chicago is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
Chicago is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Philadelphia is 3-10 SU in its last 13 games at home
Philadelphia is 4-1-1 ATS in its last 6 games

Monday, December 23

8:40 PM
ATLANTA vs. SAN FRANCISCO
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Atlanta's last 13 games when playing on the road against San Francisco
Atlanta is 5-12 ATS in its last 17 games
San Francisco is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games when playing at home against Atlanta
San Francisco is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Atlanta

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**Udog** · 12-19-2013, 10:44 AM

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 16

First Post

Dolphins (8-6) @ Bills (5-9)-- Miami is 5-2 since the bullying fiasco, winning last three games by 20-6-4 points; they lost 23-21 (-7.5) at home to Buffalo in Week 7, turning ball over three times (-2), converting 3-13 on thirrd down (Bills were 9-19). Five of last seven series games were decided by 7 or less points; Fish won two of last three visits here, after losing previous seven. Buffalo lost five of its last seven games; they're 3-4 at home- Bills are +9 in their five wins, -8 in losses. You'd think Fish would be in trouble up north in December, but they've already won games in Swamp/Pittsburgh this month. Miami is 4-3 on road this season. Home teams are 5-2 vs spread in AFC East divisional games, 3-0 if underdogs. Under is 6-1-1 in last eight Miami games; three of last four Buffalo games went over the total.

Saints (10-4) @ Panthers (10-4)-- First place in NFC South on line here; Saints are averaging 14.5 ppg less on road than at home- they've lost four of last five games on road, outscored 51-10 in first half of last two. Saints lost to Jets/Rams on road, red flags. NO beat Carolina 31-13 (-3) two weeks ago, holding Newton to 2.8 ypa; it is only game Panthers didn't have at least one play of 20+ yards. Panthers won last six home games (5-0-1 vs spread) after losing home opener 12-7 to Seahawks; Carolina won nine of last ten games overall after 1-3 start. Saints are 0-2 as dogs this year. Home teams are 8-1 vs spread in NFC South divisional games, 6-0 if they are favored. Last five Saint games, five of last six Carolina games stayed under total. Carolina swept Saints LY, but lost last five games against Sean Payton.

Cowboys (7-7) @ Redskins (3-11)-- Hard to pick either side here; Dallas allowed 82 points in losing last two games, outscored 55-24 in second half- they blew 26-3 halftime lead to Pack's #4 QB last week. Cowboys are 7-3 in last ten series games, winning 31-16 (-6) in first meeting, in game where Skins outgained Dallas 433-213, but gave up PR for TD and TD drives of 15-3 yards. Washington lost last six in a row (1-5 vs spread); Cousins threw for 373 yards last week but they missed 2-pt play in last minute that would've won game. Cowboys are 3-2 in last five visits to DC; they're 1-3 on grass fields this season. Home teams are 4-6 vs spread in NFC East divisional games, 0-1 if home dogs. Last seven Cowboy games, six of last nine Washington games went over total.

Buccaneers (4-10) @ Rams (6-8)-- St Louis is favored for first time since beating Jaguars 34-20 (-11) in Week 5; they seem to play better vs better teams, with wins over three of eight division leaders. Rams are +17 in turnovers in six wins, -7 in the losses; they're 4-3 SU at home, 1-1 as home faves. Bucs won four of last six after an 0-8 start; they're 2-4 on road, 2-3 as road dogs, losing away games by 1-20-8-3-21 points, with only win 24-21 at Lions (they were +5 in turnovers). Tampa Bay is 4-6 as underdogs this year, 2-3 on road. NFC West non-divisional favorites are 19-5-1 vs spread, 10-4-1 at home; NFC South road dogs are 6-5. Three of last four Tampa Bay and last three Ram tilts stayed under the total. This is Bucs' first visit here since '04; they're 5-2 vs Rams since losing 11-6 in '00 NFC title game here.

Bears (8-6) @ Eagles (8-6)-- Philly won last two home games, 24-16/34-20 after breaking long losing skid at Linc; they're 5-3 in last eight games as favorite. Chicago scored 83 points in winning last two games; they've averaged 7.2+ ypa in last four games, as teams have trouble covering their big WRs. Chicago won four of last five series games (all decided by 6 or less points), in series where road teams won six of last eight meetings. Bears won last week despite allowing two defensive TDs; they won field position in 10 of 14 games this year. NFC East non-divisional favorites are 9-13 vs spread, 6-8 at home; NFC North road underdogs are 4-7. Four of last five Bear games went over total; five of last six Philly home games stayed under the total. Detroit's loss Monday night puts Chicago in control of own destiny to win the NFC North- they play Packers at home next week.

Browns (4-10) @ Jets (6-8)-- Cleveland scored two defensive TDs and still lost to Chicago last week, bad sign for team that lost last five games and eight of last nine. Browns are +3 in turnovers in last two games, -6 for year; Jets are -19 for season, -20 in losses, +1 in wins. Gang Green scored 37-20 points in last two games after not scoring TD in previous two games; they've lost field position by 10+ yards in each of last four losses. Jets are 5-2 at home, scoring 3-6 points in losses to Miami, Steelers; Browns are 1-5 on road, 3-3 as road dog; they had Patriots 26-14 at 2:00 warning of last road game, lost by point. AFC North non-divisional underdogs are 11-6-2 vs spread, 6-4-2 at home; AFC East favorites are 7-4, 5-3 at home. Six of last eight Jet games, six of last seven Cleveland games went over the total.

Colts (9-5) @ Chiefs (11-3)-- There's chance these teams could meet in first round of playoffs in two weeks; Indy is 11-2 in last 13 series games, 3-0 in playoff tilts. Colts won six of last seven visits here, winning 20-13 LY; Chiefs are 2-5 vs spread at home, losing 41-38/35-28 in last two, after winning first five-- they scored 101 points in winning last two games on road- they led 38-10/35-17 at half the last two weeks. Colts lost 40-11/42-28 in last two road games- they were outscored 79-12 in first half of last four away games. AFC West non-divisional favorites are 13-9 vs spread, 7-5 at home; AFC South underdogs are 8-16-1, 6-7-1 on road. Chiefs' last four games and six of last eight Indy games went over total. Chiefs have four TDs on defense/special teams in their last three games. This is bigger game for KC, who could get a first-round bye if they win AFC West.

Vikings (4-9-1) @ Bengals (9-5)-- Cincy won/covered all six home games, beating Pack/Pats/Colts at home; Bengals are 6-0-1 in second half of last seven games, with 116-59 scoring edge after halftime since Week 8. Minnesota is competing, covering six of last seven games, going 2-1-1 SU in last four; 41-20 loss at Seattle was only time in last seven games they lost by more than 7 points. Vikings are 5-3 as road dogs- they hung 48 on Philly last week with Peterson sitting out- they averaged 9.7 ypa with Cassel throwing for 370 yards, but this game is outdoors, and against a better defense. Bengals now have Ravens breathing down their neck, so this is big games for them. AFC North non-divisional home favorites are 6-5 vs spread this season; NFC North road underdogs are 4-7. 12 of 14 Viking games, six of last eight Cincinnati games went over total.

**StarDust Bum** · 12-19-2013, 02:53 PM

QB Rodgers still uncertain for Packers

December 18, 2013

GREEN BAY, Wis. (AP) - Eddie Lacy lines up in the backfield, scans the defense and notices an awful lot of players ganging up near the line of scrimmage.

Lacy knows what's coming. Defenses are trying to stop the run. Tough as it might be, he wants to make them pay.

Despite the absence of injured quarterback Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay has made a late charge in the NFC North race thanks in part to the 6-foot, 250-pound bowling ball of a running back.

''I know I'm going to get hit when you line up and see eight guys in front,'' Lacy said Wednesday. ''They can hit you at the line of scrimmage or you can get some positive yards so you can have some kind of momentum going ... the next time you run the ball.''

The rookie was drafted in the second round from Alabama to help complement Rodgers and the passing game. But it's been six weeks since they've been in the same backfield, and Rodgers hasn't been medically cleared to return from his left collarbone injury to play Sunday against the Pittsburgh Steelers.

Rodgers appears to be inching closer to a return. He hasn't played since getting hurt on the first series of a 27-20 loss to Chicago on Nov. 4.

''Threw the ball extremely well. Looked sharp. He's getting better,'' coach Mike McCarthy said.

For now, he's still officially ''limited'' in practice, taking some snaps with the first team while backup Matt Flynn prepares to start a game that Green Bay (7-6-1) needs desperately. A victory over the Steelers ensures an all-or-nothing showdown for the division the following week with the Bears.

Flynn has helped rally the Packers to two straight come-from-behind wins, capped by the frantic 37-36 win last week in Dallas to rally from a 23-point halftime deficit - the biggest comeback in franchise history. Flynn threw for 299 yards and four scores.

But Flynn knows the deal too. He'll relinquish the job when Rodgers is ready. The Packers would love to reunite Lacy and Rodgers in the same backfield, and perhaps get more breathing room for the running game.

Nursing a sprained right ankle, Lacy ran for 141 yards on 21 carries and the go-ahead touchdown from a yard out last week against Dallas. Imagine what Lacy might be able when Rodgers returns.

Lacy's day earned him NFC Offensive Player of the Week honors. With 1,028 yards rushing and eight touchdowns, Lacy is the only rookie in franchise history to run for a least 1,000 yards and five scores.

Lacy sat out practice Wednesday as a precaution. He's also walking around in a soft walking boot on the ankle, but McCarthy expects the rookie to play Sunday.

''You have to run the football; we've committed to it more this year,'' McCarthy said. ''Been pleased so far with the way it's gone ... We can get better.''

For his part, Lacy is soaking up knowledge every week. For instance, he hasn't fumbled since Week 1 in San Francisco, when he made a cut and stumbled forward but didn't have a good hold on the ball.

''Now, my pads are always square and I have good body leverage and I'm able to push and cover the ball with my hands,'' Lacy said.

He's getting used to the timing with his blockers. Besides the addition of Lacy, the Packers also re-jiggered its offensive line this year with Josh Sitton going to left guard from the right side to switch places with T.J. Lang. Rookie David Bakhtiari starts at left tackle.

Lacy's running style might be emblematic of the team's bullish approach to stay in the playoff chase. Lang noted a recent meeting when a coach singled out Lacy while players watched film.

''I mean he's bouncing off four or five guys, and (coach) just said `Hey, we've all got to play like Eddie,''' Lang said. ''Just the tenacity and the motor that he has ... that's something that all of us can learn from and add to our game.''

Note: WR Randall Cobb returned to practice on a limited basis for the first time after missing the past nine weeks with a leg injury. Cobb hasn't been cleared to play in a game, but he said he thinks that he's healed and just needs to get back into football shape.

---

**Udog** · 12-20-2013, 09:58 AM

Where the action is: NFL mid-week line moves

Two weeks. That's all we have left to the regular season. With Week 16 upon us, the playoff picture could be poised to become a little more clear. With that, certain teams across the league will be gung-ho to spoil the playoff aspirations of their division or conference rivals.

We talk to Mike Perry of Sportsbook.com about the biggest line moves heading toward the weekend:

New York Giants at Detroit Lions - Open: -10, Move: -9

The Lions appear as if they don't want any piece of the postseason. They currently reside in third place in the NFC North and have dropped four of the last five games - including an 18-16 loss against the Baltimore Ravens Monday night. Because of the terrible football they've been playing, coupled with the short week, bettors have lined up to jump on the road dog in this matchup.

"Since the Lions played on Monday, the line came out on Tuesday and in less than three hours, we got wiseguy play on the dog, and moved a full-point to 9," Perry says. "Many probably look at this team to be hard pressed to beat anyone by double digits. Eli Manning needs to redeem himself off a five INT game, and the Giants seem to somehow play their best whenever hardly anyone gives them a chance."

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at St. Louis Rams - Open: -4.5, Move: -5.5

Following their surprising victory over the New Orleans Saints in Week 15, bettors have backed the Rams and had odds moving early in the week. The luster has fallen off the Bucs' recent winning ways, however. They put together a three-game winning streak earlier before going loss, win, loss over their last three as they head into Week 16.

"Monday morning got sharp bet on the favorite so moved to -5," Perry tells Covers. "Then on Wednesday afternoon, another sharp play on the Rams caused us to move to the current number of 5.5. Mike Glennon will be in for a tough matchup Sunday, no doubt about that."

New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers - Open: -3, Move: -3.5

You couldn't ask for a better matchup Sunday. Both teams are 10-4. Both teams want the NFC South crown. But, perhaps nobody across the entire league has played better football than the Panthers. They've won nine of their last 10 games and have pulled through for the bettor as well going 7-2-1 ATS over those 10 games.

"While this game only moved a half-point, it did move off of 3, the most important number when it comes to NFL gambling," said Perry. "This wiseguy play took place on Monday morning. Huge revenge game for Carolina, who are looking to atone for the embarrassing 31-13 loss to New Orleans on Sunday Night Football. This game is much more than revenge for the Panthers, as a victory will give them the inside track to winning the NFC South."

Chicago Bears at Philadelphia Eagles - Open: -4, Move: -3

McCown or Cutler under center, it doesn't really matter. The Bears sport a deadly passing attack that features two of the best targets in the league in Alshon Jeffery and Brandon Marshall. The fact that their lethal aerial assault gets to go up against the Eagles atrocious secondary had sharps all over the road dog after books opened this matchup.

"Sunday night got sharp bet on the Bears, so moved to 3.5 and then another sharp play came on Chicago, so moved to present number of 3," Perry stated. "Philadelphia made Matt Cassel look like Fran Tarkenton last Sunday, as he tossed up 382 passing yards and recorded a rushing TD to boot. Just imagine what Chicago's high powered offense of Forte, Marshall and Jeffery could do to them."

**Udog** · 12-20-2013, 10:00 AM

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 16

Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins (+2.5, 43)

Cowboys’ third-down offense vs. Redskins’ third-down defense

The Cowboys shot themselves in the foot – again – with another late-game collapse versus the Packers last weekend. Dallas’ issues are stacked to the roof of AT&T Stadium but perhaps the most glaring problem is its inability to convert on third down. The Cowboys have converted just 35.22 percent of their third downs this season and went a dismal 2-for-9 on third down in the loss to Green Bay. Quick three-and-outs are killing an already weak defense, and the offense hasn’t been able to pick up that slack.

Washington is maybe the only other team in the NFC with more internal issues than the Cowboys at this point. However, the Redskins proved they're going to fight to the finish with a close loss to Atlanta Sunday. The defense isn’t where it was last season but Washington is still doing a good job ushering teams off the field on third down. The Redskins have limited foes to a 34.71 percent success rate on third down and have been even stingier in recent outings, dropping that number to 29.73 percent over the last three games.

Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs (-7, 45)

Colts’ rushing defense vs. Chiefs’ RB Jamaal Charles

We’re usually a little more subtle when it comes to our weekly mismatches but after the day Charles had last week, the Chiefs’ multifaceted RB deserves respect. Charles threw a wrench in many fantasy football playoff matchups with his five-touchdown performance versus the Raiders. He caught all eight passes thrown his way for 195 yards and tacked on an additional 20 yards on the ground.

Charles has history with the Colts, racking up 226 yards rushing and a score in last year’s loss to Indianapolis. The Colts defense is among the worst at stopping the run - 128.9 yards against per game – and has been exposed by pass-catching backs all season. Most recently, Bengals RB Giovanni Bernard had a big day with 99 yards on the ground and another 49 through the air versus the Colts in Week 14.

New York Giants at Detroit Lions (-10, 49)

Giants’ short secondary vs. Lions’ towering targets

New York’s secondary is in shambles with key corners and safeties causing traffic jams in the trainer’s room. The Giants’ two somewhat healthy CBs, Prince Amukamara and Trumaine McBride, have a tall task ahead of them Sunday. Amukamara and McBride stand just 6-foot and 5-foot-9 respectively and will try to slow down a Detroit receiving corps that could double as an NBA frontcourt.

Forget about Calvin Johnson and what his freakish 6-foot-5 frame can do. The Lions also boast beanpoles in 6-foot WR Nate Burleson, 6-foot-6 WR Kris Durham, 6-foot-5 TE Brandon Pettigrew and 6-foot-7 TE Joseph Fauria. New York has record only 29 sacks on the season and will give Matt Stafford plenty of time to toss jump balls to his towering targets Sunday afternoon. Add “Megatron” to the mix, who has a total of 191 yards and two TDs in two games versus N.Y., and it makes New York's nickname - The Giants - seem a bit misleading.

Chicago Bears at Philadelphia Eagles (-3, 56)

Bears’ big passing plays vs. Eagles’ bending to big plays

It doesn’t matter who’s under center for Chicago – Jay Cutler or Josh McCown – the Bears’ passing attack is doing big things. Over the past three games, Chicago has averaged 9.2 yards per pass attempt – tops in the NFL during that span. Cutler let it rip for 265 yards and three TDs in his return under center versus Cleveland last weekend, picking up a healthy 11.9 yards per pass completion, including a 45-yard TD strike to Alshon Jeffery.

The Eagles got knocked on their ass in Minnesota last Sunday, allowing Vikings QB Matt Cassel to pass for 382 yards and two touchdowns. The pass defense has been slipping recently, hemorrhaging big gains and dropping to a league-worst 291.6 yards passing allowed per game. Philadelphia’s opponents have averaged 7.7 yards per pass attempts and 13 yards per completion over the last three contests. Poor tackling has led to an average of 146.6 yards allowed after the catch – fourth worst in the NFL.

**Udog** · 12-21-2013, 10:42 AM

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 16

All remaining games

Broncos (11-3) @ Texans (2-12)-- Denver wins division/first round bye with two wins to close season; Houston lost its last 12 games, fired its coach, now goes back to original starting QB Schaub with backup Keenum hurt. Broncos are 3-3 as road favorites; they've got road wins by 18-3-8-7, with losses at Indy/Foxboro. Texans are 2-11-1 vs spread this year, 1-6 at home, 1-2 as home dogs, with losses at home by 3-25-3-5-7-3 points. Run defense has been problem for Houston- they've given up 146.4 rushing yards/game in last five games. AFC West non-divisional favorites are 13-8 vs spread, 6-4 on road; AFC South underdogs are 8-16-1, 2-9 at home. 11 of 14 Bronco tilts and five of last seven Houston games went over total. Broncos had ten days off since getting up 27-20 at home by Chargers in last game.

Titans (5-9) @ Jaguars (4-10)-- Jags' first win after 0-8 start was 29-27 (+11) back in Week 10 in Nashville; Titans lost three fumbles, were -2 in TOs, lost despite outgaining Jaguars 362-214. Titans converted 10-18 on 3rd down. Four of last five series games were decided by 6 or less points;Tennessee lost three of their last four visits here, losing by 20-2-5 points. Jags are 4-2 since starting 0-8, but three of four wins were on road- they're 1-6 SU/ATS at home, with five losses by 13+ points. Titans lost three in row, eight of last 11 games; they're 5-2 vs spread on road, 3-4 on road, winning by 7-7-4 points- this is their fourth road game in last five weeks. Home teams are 3-5-1 against spread in AFC South divisional games, 1-2-1 if home dogs. Over is 8-2-1 in Tennessee's last 11 games, 8-2 in Jaguars' last ten.

Cardinals (9-5) @ Seahawks (12-2)-- Seattle clinches home field thru NFC playoffs with win here; they've won eight of last nine games, covering last five. Seattle won first meeting 34-22 (-5.5) at Seattle in Week 7, outrushing Redbirds 135-30, sacking Palmer seven times. Arizona lost last three visits here, losing 58-0 LY, but they've won six of last seven games overall (6-0-1 vs spread). Cardinals need win to stay in Wild Card chase; they converted 14-26 on 3rd down last two games, but Palmer is banged up and Fitzgerald got concussion on muffed onside kick last week (expected to play here). Seahawks won eight of last nine games, with last four wins by 21+ points. NFC West divisional home favorites are 4-1 against spread. Six of last nine Arizona games wne tover total; four of last five Seattle games stayed under.

Giants (5-9) @ Lions (7-7)-- Two most turnover-prone teams (39-31) meet in this one, after Detroit had costly Monday night loss where Ravens won despite their only scoring coming on six FGs, including GW 61-yarder. Detroit has horrendous -18 turnover ratio (5-23) in last seven games, going 3-4, with two of wins by 1-2 points. Giants were shut out in first half of last two games (37-0); they're 2-5 vs spread as underdogs this year, 2-3 on road, with road losses by 5-38-24-6-23- its only road wins were against divisional rivals. Big Blue is 15 of last 56 on 3rd down, as lack of playmakers/strong OL has hampered immobile Manning. NFC East non-divisional underdogs are 6-11 vs spread, 5-7 on road. Six of last nine Detroit games went over total. Lions can still win NFC North with two wins and a little help.

Raiders (4-10) @ Chargers (7-7)-- Oakland is 18-9 vs spread in last 27 games as a divisional underdog; they've won two of last three visits here, after losing previous seven. Oakland (+4.5) upset Chargers 27-17 at home in Week 5, outrushing Bolts 104-32 with +5 turnover ratio. San Diego had only two TDs in five trips into red zone. Raiders lost last four games, are 4-3 as road underdogs, losing away games by 4-16-17-4-7-10 points, with win at Houston. Bolts are 3-2 as favorites, 3-3 SU at home, wiith wins by 9-10-23 points- they've had ten days off since winning last Thursday in Denver. Only one of SD's last three series wins was by more than 8 points. AFC West divisional favories are 6-3 vs spread, 3-2 at home. Over is 6-0-1 in last seven Oakland games; six of last nine Charger games stayed under.

Steelers (6-8) @ Packers (7-6-1)-- Green Bay wins division if they win last couple games, but Rodgers is out for 7th straight game- Pack won last two games by point each, after going 0-4-1 in five before that, as 4th-stringer Flynn rallied GB back to win last week after being down 26-3 at half. Packers are 0-4 vs spread in last four home games, after winning/covering first three with Rodgers; they're 3-3 as home favorites, 0-3 without #12. Steelers beat rival Bengals last week, host Browns next week, figure to let down here since they're out of contention. Pitt covered last four games as an underdog AFC North non-divisional underdogs are 11-5-2 vs spread, 6-3-2 on road. NFC North favorites are 5-13-2, 3-8-2 at home. Four of Steelers' last five games, three of last four Green Bay games went over the total.

Patriots (10-4) @ Ravens (8-6)-- Pats won seven of ten series games, with two of three losses in playoffs; they've won two of last three visits here, losing 31-30 LY. NE is playing for first round bye, which is big; they're 3-0 vs spread this year in game following a loss, winning by 3-10-3 points. Ravens won last four games, last three by combined total of seven points- they're on short work week after winning at Detroit without scoring a TD. Pats lost four of last five road games, with win at Houston when they trailed 17-7 at half. Ravens are 6-1 at home, with only loss to Packers 19-17, with Rodgers. AFC East non-divisional underdogs are 11-13 vs spread, 3-10 on road; AFC North favorites are 8-9, 6-5 at home. Three of last four Patriot games went over; five of last seven Raven home games stayed under.

Falcons (4-10) @ 49ers (10-4)-- Niners are bully team; other than Seattle win, its last eight wins are all by 12+ points- they're 4-3 as home favorites. Atlanta has had awful year but they're still competing; their last four games (2-2) were decided by 4 or less points; they're +8 in turnovers last three weeks, after being + in turnovers in only one of first eleven games. SF hasn't been minus in turnovers since Week 3 loss to Indy. Falcons covered last three games as a dog, won four of five games vs SF since teams stopped being division rivals, but 49ers won 28-24 in Atlanta in LY's playoffs, which seems like long time ago for Falcon fans. NFC West favorites are 19-5-2 vs spread, 9-3-1 at home; NFC South underdogs are 8-9, 6-5 on road. five of 49ers' last six games stayed under total. This is last game in Candlestick Park.

**Udog** · 12-22-2013, 07:01 AM

NFL

Sunday, December 22

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Sunday's NFL Week 16 betting cheat sheet: Early action
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Cleveland Browns at New York Jets (-2.5, 40.5)

In addition to another late collapse on the defensive side of the ball, the Browns also had two turnovers and nine penalties in a sluggish effort against Chicago that had quarterback Jason Campbell blaming, in part, the painful loss to the Patriots one week earlier. Campbell has averaged 332 yards and two touchdowns since returning from a concussion earlier this month. Josh Gordon leads the NFL with 122.3 receiving yards per game.

If New York needs a confidence boost as it heads into its home finale, it can look to its performance at MetLife Stadium this year, where head coach Rex Ryan's crew has gone 5-2. The Jets have scored at least 26 points in four of those five victories and produced a season-high 37 in their last home contest. New York averages 128.3 yards on the ground, third-best in the AFC.

LINE: New York opened at -1 but has been bet up to -2.5. The total is set at 40.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the lmid-60s with a 54 percent chance of rain and wind blowing out of the southwest at 11 mph.
POWER RANKINGS: Cleveland (+6.0) - New York (+4.8) + home field (-3.0) = Jets -4.2
TRENDS:

* Browns are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 road games vs. teams with losing home records.
* Jets are 1-4 ATS in their last five games vs. AFC foes.
* Over is 9-3 in New York's last 12 games.

Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs (-7, 45)

Indianapolis has been wildly inconsistent following its 4-1 start, alternating wins and losses in nine games since, and the Colts are coming off a strong performance in a 25-3 victory over Houston, so they might be due for another letdown. Second-year quarterback Andrew Luck (3,299 yards, 21 TDs, 9 INTs) has been solid, but the Colts haven't generated much on the ground since the trade for Trent Richardson.

The Chiefs allow an AFC-low 18.2 points per game and have the best turnover margin in the league at plus-21, but the offense has been impressive the past two weeks. The Chiefs have rolled up 101 points in consecutive wins at Washington and Oakland and they've topped 28 points in four straight games. Jamaal Charles leads the team in rushing yards (1,181), receptions (65), receiving yards (655) and scoring 18 touchdowns.

LINE: Kansas City has been bet up a half-point after opening at -6.5. The total has jumped 3.5 points to 45.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-20s with wind blowing across the length of the field at 12 mph.
POWER RANKINGS: Indianapolis (-0.8) + Kansas City (-3.0) + home field (-3.0) = Chiefs -5.2
TRENDS:

* Colts are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 December games.
* Chiefs are 1-5 ATS in their last six games vs. teams with winning records.
* Indianapolis is 9-3 ATS in the last 12 meetings.

Minnesota Vikings at Cincinnati Bengals (-8.5, 47.5)

Matt Asiata didn't provide much yardage-wise while filling in for Adrian Peterson last week, but the third-stringer helped put up points. Asiata gained only 51 yards on 30 carries against Philadelphia but scored the first three touchdowns of his NFL career. Peterson (foot) and primary backup Toby Gerhart (hamstring) both are expected to be available Sunday.

Cincinnati is 6-0 at home, where it meets Baltimore for a potential showdown for the division title next week. The Bengals average 33.2 points in their own building and have scored more than 40 in each of their last three home contests. Andy Dalton has thrown 27 TD passes, matching his career high, and needs 351 yards to join Carson Palmer as the only quarterbacks in team history to reach the 4,000-yard plateau in a season.

LINE: Cincinnati opened at -7.5, but has been bet up to -8.5. The total dipped a half-point to 47.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-50s with a 54 percent chance of rain and wind blowing across the width of the field at 13 mph.
POWER RANKINGS: Minnesota (+4.3) + Cincinnati (-3.5) + home field (-3.0) = Bengals -10.8
TRENDS:

* Vikings are 7-0 ATS in their last seven December games.
* Bengals are 7-0 ATS in their last seven home games.
* Home team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.

Denver Broncos at Houston Texans (+10, 53)

Denver is the first team in NFL history to have four players score at least 10 touchdowns in a season and receiver Eric Decker (73 receptions for 1,130 yards) is two away from making it five. Wideout Demaryius Thomas (78 for 1,194) has also surpassed 1,000 yards and Manning is just 189 yards away from the first 5,000-yard campaign of his stellar career. Knowshon Moreno (939 yards) leads the Denver ground attack.

Quarterback Matt Schaub - he of the nine touchdown passes and 10 interceptions - will be under center Sunday in place of Case Keenum (thumb). Texans running back Ben Tate (771 rushing yards) was placed on injured reserve and rookie Dennis Johnson (154 yards) will start in his place. Defensive lineman J.J. Watt had 2.5 sacks last season when the Texans posted a 31-25 victory over Denver.

LINE: Denver has held steady as a 10-point fave, with the total rising from 51.5 to 53.
WEATHER: N/A
POWER RANKINGS: Denver (-7.5) + Houston (+7.5) - home field (-3.0) = Broncos -12
TRENDS:

* Broncos are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games vs. teams with losing records.
* Texans are 3-12 ATS in their last 15 games.
* Over is 39-12-2 in Denver's last 53 games following a SU loss.

Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars (+5, 44)

Tennessee quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick passed for 402 yards and four touchdowns last week, but he threw two costly interceptions - one that was returned for a score and the other that set up the game-winning field goal. Running back Chris Johnson turned in another pedestrian effort with 40 yards on 13 carries, marking the seventh time the former 2,000-yard rusher has been limited to 46 yards or fewer.

Jacksonville Leading rusher Maurice Jones-Drew did not practice Wednesday and No. 1 receiver Cecil Shorts (groin) was placed on season-ending injured reserve Tuesday, leaving backup quarterback Chad Henne with a paucity of weapons. Jordan Todman made his first career start in place of Jones-Drew last week and rushed for 109 yards while catching four passes for 44 yards.

LINE: Tennessee has been bet down a half-point after opening -5.5. The total is holding at 44.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-70s with partly cloudy skies and wind blowing across the length of the field at 14 mph.
POWER RANKINGS: Tennessee (+3.0) - Jacksonville (+5.5) + home field (-3.0) = Jaguars -0.5
TRENDS:

* Titans are 3-12-1 ATS in their last 16 games vs. AFC South foes.
* Jaguars are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games.
* Under is 5-1 in the last six meetings in Jacksonville.

Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (+2.5, 42.5)

Dolphins quarterback Ryan Tannehill is just 373 yards shy of becoming Miami's first quarterback to reach 4,000 yards in a season since Hall of Famer Dan Marino did so in 1994. Tannehill has been sacked an NFL-high 51 times and faces a Buffalo team that leads the league with 49 sacks. Safety Michael Thomas intercepted Tom Brady in the end zone with two seconds remaining to secure AFC Defensive Player of the Week honors.

While Miami is eyeing a potential postseason berth, Buffalo is vying to complete its first season sweep of its AFC East rival since 2007. Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller paid dividends for Buffalo's fourth-ranked rushing game by combining for 147 yards on 30 carries in last week's 27-20 victory over Jacksonville. A heavy workload for the pair could take the pressure off Lewis, who threw for 202 yards to defeat Miami.

LINE: The Bills are holding as 2.5-point dogs, with the total dropping a half-point to 42.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-50s with a 100 percent chance of rain and wind blowing across the width of the field at 12 mph.
POWER RANKINGS: Miami (-1.0) + Buffalo (+4.8) - home field (-3.0) = Dolphins -2.8
TRENDS:

* Dolphins are 5-0 ATS in their last five games.
* Bills are 6-2 ATS in their last eight home games.
* Favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.

New Orleans Saints at Carolina Panthers (-3, 46.5)

Drew Brees and New Orleans got the better of Carolina's stingy defense in the first meeting, in large part because they held on to the ball - eight of the Saints' 17 turnovers have come in their four losses. Brees (4,500 yards, 34 TDs, 10 INTs) is on pace for his third straight 5,000-yard season and put up 313 yards and four touchdowns against the Panthers two weeks ago.

The Saints are the only team to beat Carolina since Week 5, as the Panthers have won nine of 10 to move to the cusp of their first playoff berth since 2008. Coincidentally, New Orleans is also the only team all season that did not commit a turnover against the Panthers, whose dominant defense has racked up 27 takeaways. DeAngelo Williams and quarterback Cam Newton lead a powerful running game.

LINE: Carolina is installed as a 3-point fave, with the total up a half-point to 46.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-70s with an 81 percent chance of showers or thunderstorms and wind blowing out of the southwest at 13 mph.
POWER RANKINGS: New Orleans (-4.0) + Carolina (-4.5) + home field (-3.0) = Panthers -3.5
TRENDS:

* Saints are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games.
* Panthers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games vs. NFC foes.
* Under is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings in Carolina.

Dallas Cowboys at Washington Redskins (+3, 53.5)

Although many point the finger at a spotty defense, Tony Romo continues to be in the eye of the storm for Dallas' troubles. Romo threw for multiple touchdowns in five of his last seven contests but also tossed a pair of interceptions in the final three minutes last week to give his detractors additional ammunition about his level of play in December. Dez Bryant reeled in 11 catches for 153 yards versus the Packers.

Redskins quarterback Kirk Cousins will face the 32nd-ranked Dallas pass defense on Sunday after carving up the Falcons by completing 29-of-45 passes for 381 yards with three touchdowns. After rushing for 57 yards in his previous two games combined, Redskins RB Alfred Morris busted out for 98 against Atlanta. The second-year back rushed for 81 yards and a score in the teams' previous meeting.

LINE: Dallas is set as a 3-point fave, while the total has risen two points from an opening of 51.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-70s with a 55 percent chance of showers and wind blowing across the width of the field at 13 mph.
POWER RANKINGS: Dallas (-0.3) + Washington (+7.0) - home field (-3.0) = Cowboys -4.3
TRENDS:

* Cowboys are 4-0 ATS in their last four games vs. divisional opponents.
* Redskins are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 games vs. the NFC.
* Underdog is 23-8 ATS in the last 31 meetings.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at St. Louis Rams (-4, 43)

Playing with quarterback Mike Glennon and third-string running back Bobby Rainey has taken a toll on Tampa Bay's offense, but one of the brightest developments has been the performance of tight end Tim Wright. An undrafted rookie out of Rutgers, Wright had seven receptions for 82 yards and a touchdown in last week's loss to San Francisco and has scored four times in his last eight games.

St. Louis lost Sam Bradford early in the season and has been going with journeyman Kellen Clemens, who completed a season-high 70 percent of his passes while tossing two TD passes last week. Clemens and the Rams have leaned heavily on unheralded rookie running back Zac Stacy, who is coming off his third 100-yard game and has rushed for six touchdowns in his past six games.

LINE: St. Louis has dropped from an opening line of -5.5 to -4. The total is up a half-point to 43.
WEATHER: N/A
POWER RANKINGS: Tampa Bay (+4.0) - St. Louis (+2.0) + home field (-3.0) = Rams -5
TRENDS:

* Buccaneers are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games vs. teams with losing records.
* Rams are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games.
* Under is 5-1 in the last six meetings.

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Announcement

NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 16 (Sunday, December 22 - Monday, December 23)

NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 16 (Sunday, December 22 - Monday, December 23)

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