Monday's Trends and Indexes - 12/9 (NBA, NCAAB, NHL, Misc.)

[Udog]

As always, thanks for the info! Much appreciated. BOL tonight!

as always, thanks U DOG........sorry I let us down badly yesterday..........looks like TACO and PEANUT may have bailed you out of further misery though............thanks

You're sure welcome, guys!

Kaptain, you have never let us down and I can't imagine you ever would! It's just one bad day. I'm so far ahead playing your foots and hoops it's ridiculous! Besides, you'll get em right back.

Yes, Taco and Peanut helped out a lot yesterday. Also, my work came up with KC and Cinci big so I played em big. That helped out, too.

Good luck tonight, guys!

[jt4545]

Good luck udog wish you had one of these ribeye's yum yum

[Udog]

NFL Opening Line Report: Oddsmakers padding postseason pushes

This point of the NFL season can be especially tricky for books and bettors, with teams in pursuit of the playoffs either bursting with added motivation or crumbling under the postseason pressure.

There can be good value spotting a team going all out down the stretch, which is why oddsmakers aren’t ashamed to say their padding the lines for those must-win games.

“As we go into the final few weeks, we really want to hedge higher on those teams fighting for the playoffs,” says Peter Korner, founder of the Nevada-based odds service The Sports Club. “This is time of year we admit to adding a couple points to those teams that really need a win.”

There are plenty of games on the Week 15 schedule with postseason implications, including a AFC West war between the San Diego Chargers and Denver Broncos on Thursday Night Football.

Offshore books opened this line as low as Denver -10.5, but Korner says the Broncos need a win as much as any team right now. His oddsmakers sent out a suggested line of Denver -13, knowing the Broncos are motivated to clinch home-field advantage for the postseason – a key component to their Super Bowl plans.

“Both teams are fighting for playoff positioning but the Broncos poured it on against the Titans,” says Korner. “We sent out Denver -13 and saw that there were some 10’s out there – I don’t understand that line. There’s no need to be low on the highest-scoring team in the NFL. It’s going to be cold in Denver and San Diego isn’t going to like that. I don’t think we’re overpricing the Broncos. It’s just a better line.”


New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins (+2)

The Patriots will be without star tight end Rob Gronkowski for the remainder of the season after he shredded his knee in Sunday’s thrilling win over Cleveland. According to Korner, Gronkowski is worth as much as two points to New England’s spreads.

“He’s a big hit to take and we’ve seen that already this year, with how poorly the Patriots played without him,” Korner says of Gronkowski. “He’s a point in a half, maybe even a two full point bump right off the bat. We’ve seen this offense struggle without him.”

Korner’s oddsmakers brought spread of New England -2 and -3 to the table, so they sent out the Patriots as 2.5-point road favorites in Miami.

“This is going to be a big dog play with the public,” he says. “Miami does need this game and could win straight up. Bettors are looking at how New England stalled versus Cleveland and needed a lucky hometown call to win the game. I just think dog players are going to be all over this one.”


Green Bay Packers at Dallas Cowboys (N/A)

The Packers continue to play the waiting game on star QB Aaron Rodgers. Korner says they sent out Dallas -2.5 with Rodgers in the lineup and would suggest Dallas -8.5 or -9 if he is ruled out again while recovering from his broken collarbone.

“He’s a full six or seven points,” Korner says of Rodgers impact on this spread. “Green Bay is trying to stay in the mix and they want to play him if they can. He wants to play if he can. The line somewhat depends on how Dallas does (Monday). But with that game in the cold on the road, it may not matter much overall.”


Baltimore Ravens at Detroit Lions (-6)

Both the Ravens and Lions played in crazy snow games this past Sunday, but will nice and warm inside Ford Field on Monday Night Football.

Korner is expecting a heated primetime clash between two teams in the playoff hunt and sent out Detroit as a 3.5-point home favorite while offshores posted a bigger number at Lions -6.

“This is a must-win for both teams, so we sent it out pretty much at the pick’em when you factor the home field,” he says. “With weather not being a factor and them playing on a fast track indoors, we’ll see the true colors of both teams.”

[Udog]

NFL line watch: Colts backers should act fast

Spread to bet now

Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts (-6)

If you like the Colts to bounce back from their 42-28 drubbing in Cincinnati last week and hand the Texans a 12th straight loss, I'd recommend jumping on this line as soon as possible. As of Monday afternoon, there is still a -6 available but 6.5's have already started to become the predominate number, with even a 7 on the board as well.

Indianapolis beat Houston 27-24 back in Week 9, a contest in which it was trailing 21-3 heading into the break. Interestingly, that was the game that ex-Texans head coach Gary Kubiak collapsed at half time with the heart issues (Kubiak of course was sacked after last week's 27-20 setback at Jacksonville).

The end of the season can't come quick enough now for Houston which has clearly thrown in the towel, with games at home versus Denver next week and at Tennessee to finish the year.


Spread to wait on

Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers (+2.5)

As mentioned above, Cincinnati had little trouble with Indianapolis last week, thrashing it 42-28. Pittsburgh though would stumble last Sunday, losing 34-28 to Miami in the closing moments, which was on the heels of a hard-fought 22-20 loss at Baltimore in Week 13.

This line opened at +2.5, but sharps have been quick to jump on the high-flying visitors, with +3 pretty much the predominating number now. If you think the home side can stop its two game slide and avenge a 20-10 setback at Cincinnati in Week 2, then I'd recommend waiting a bit closer to kickoff before getting involved.

And if you're a Bengals backer, just keep in mind that playing on the road has been their Achilles' heel for bettors for the last few seasons, coming into this contest at just 2-5-1 ATS their last eight away from friendly confines.


Total to watch

Houston Texans at Indianapolis Colts (46)

Under bettors would be wise to get on this number right now. It opened at 46, which is still being offered at some books, but 45.5 has for the most part been taken over the board.

Whenever these divisional foes get together it has been a battle, as evidenced by the fact that the total has finished Under the number in five of their last six in the series. That wasn't the case back in Week 9 when the Colts stormed back for a 27-24 victory. Indianapolis scored 24 points in the second half, 15 in the fourth quarter.

But the firing of Kubiak is a clear signal that the visitors are planning for next year, and while the home side has locked up the division, there's no question that it will be looking to atone for the dismal defensive effort in Cincinnati last Sunday. Expect this number to continue to fall as the week goes on.

[Udog]

See spot. See spot bet: This week's best spot bet opportunities

Spot bets are classic handicapping practices that have proven profitable no matter what sport you’re betting. Whether it’s a team looking past this week’s opponent, one coming off a hard-fought victory, or a rough patch of schedule, bettors can find value picking their spots.

Lookahead spot

The Carolina Panthers won’t have to wait long to get their paws on the New Orleans Saints again. Carolina took a 31-13 knock on the chin Sunday Night, losing the inside track on the NFC South race and a potential playoff spot, but hosts the Saints in Week 16. Sandwiched in between those games with New Orleans are the lowly New York Jets, who are 11.5-point road underdogs in Carolina Sunday.

New York rose from the ashes with a 37-27 win over the Oakland Raiders Sunday, covering as 3-point home chalk. Geno Smith tossed for 219 yards and a score while adding another touchdown on the ground.

The Jets actually have a shot at the postseason – believe it or not – and are just one game out an AFC Wild Card spot. That coupled with Rex Ryan singing for his supper and a distracted Panthers side, the J-E-T-S could stay within that double-digit spread Sunday.

Letdown spot

It’s been a few disappointing weeks for the Fresno State Bulldogs, who despite claiming the Mountain West Conference crown Saturday, end up being the opening act to bowl season.

The Bulldogs, who had their BCS bowl hopes dashed by San Jose State at the end of November, defeated Utah State for the MWC title and accepted a bid to play the 9-4 USC Trojans in the Las Vegas Bowl on December 21 – the first day of bowl action.

At 11-1 on the season and boasting a conference crown from the respectable MWC, the Bulldogs seem like they got the short end of the stick with bowl matchups. While a trip to Vegas is always fun, Fresno State finished No. 20 in the Top 25 and should have gotten better bowl billing this postseason.

Schedule spot

Ask Kobe Bryant how he played in his return from Achilles’ surgery Sunday night, and he’ll likely give the film Grown Ups 2 a better review (Grown Ups 2 actually got 7 percent on Rotten Tomatoes). Bryant scored one more point than he had turnovers – nine points/eight turnovers – and missed clutch shots down the stretch in a loss to the Raptors.

The Lakers offense seemed out of whack with its top scorer in the way, freezing out playmaking PG Steve Blake for only four assists. Blake averaged 9.75 assists in the four games prior to Bryant’s return. Los Angeles averaged almost 105 points in that four-game span, going 3-1 SU and ATS.

There is going to be a transition period for L.A. and it couldn’t come at a worse time. Following a home game with Phoenix Tuesday, the Lakers hit the bricks for four straight road games - at OKC, Charlotte, Atlanta, Memphis - and play seven of their next 10 away from Staples Center. Los Angeles is just 5-4 ATS on the road this year.