NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 13 (Thursday, November 28 - Monday, December 2)

[Udog]

NFL Thanksgiving action report: Books 'made a mistake' with Steelers-Ravens odds

Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions – Open: -, Move: -7

Without Aaron Rodgers in the lineup, books opened the Packers as low as 6-point underdogs but watched money on the Lions push that spread to the key number of a touchdown. According to Stewart, about 80 percent of the action is on Detroit, which hasn’t won a Thanksgiving Day game in a decade.

“We've seen great two-way action at that number so I doubt we'll get off the number 7,” he says. “But we might adjust the juice depending on how the late money comes in.”


Oakland Raiders at Dallas Cowboys – Open: -10.5, Move: -7, Move: -7.5

Some books dropped this spread as many as three points after opening Dallas as big as -10.5 at home. At CarbonSports.ag, the Cowboys are down to -9 with sharp money sitting on the Raiders but America’s Team is among the most public NFL bets – especially on Thanksgiving – and money is starting to come back on Dallas and could move the juice for this afternoon affair.

As for the total, books opened at 46 and took instant wiseguy money, driving the number up as high as 47 points before the public – which loves to bet the Over on Thanksgiving – tacked on another point to this total.

“If we're seeing sharp action on the over, we know our recreational players are also going to bet it over,” says Stewart. “We have to move much more aggressively towards the Over to help stem some liability. Sure enough the public is betting it Over and we've further adjusted this total to 48, where we're finally seeing a bit of Under money come in.”


Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens – Open: -2.5, Move: -3, Move: -2.5

Books opened the Ravens under the key number of a field goal and took early action on the home side, only to draw more money on Pittsburgh at +3. That forced the line back to its original post, where action has remained balanced heading into the late game.

However, books are sweating a three-point final in this AFC North grudge match, where three is the margin of victory in the Ravens and Steelers last four meetings and eight of their past 10 clashes.

“While we've booked this game relatively even, if it were to land Ravens by three, we're going to lose a decent amount of money to bettors that laid -2.5 and we've going to refund a ton of tickets on the Steelers +3,” says Stewart. “It's not an ideal position to be in and we probably made a mistake going to three earlier in the week. But it is what it is.”

As for the total, Stewart says 75 percent of the early money was on the Over after opening at 40.5. That pushed the total to 41 where action has leveled out.

[jt4545]

Thanks and good luck udog happy thanksgiving

[Udog]

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 13

Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (-4, 45)

Titans’ soft second halves vs. Colts’ comebacks

Titans fans saw Week 11’s second-half collapse coming a mile away. After building a 17-6 halftime cushion, Tennessee was outscored 24-10 in the final two frames, burning bettors with a 30-27 loss as 2.5-point home underdogs. Those soft second halves have been the norm for the Titans, who are allowing an average of just 8.8 points in the first half (fourth lowest) but have hemorrhaged 16.7 in the second half over their last three games – second most in the NFL.

The Colts are the NFL’s equivalent of Michael Myers from those Halloween movies. Just when you shoot them in the face, run them over with a truck and blow them up in a warehouse explosion, they come back from the dead to stab you in the heart. Indianapolis has been outscored 92-13 during the first quarter in its last four games but is limiting opponents to only 8.2 points in the second half this season. It’s never over until it’s over with Andrew Luck & Co.


Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers (-8.5, 41.5)

Bucs’ dual-threat doom vs. Panthers’ Cam Newton

Most teams have trouble containing Carolina QB Cam Newton. The Panthers dual-threat QB has tacked on 379 yards and five rushing TDs to his improving passing stats and is coming off a 51-yard, one-TD rushing performance in the win over Miami last weekend. Newton is relying more on his arm this season but still is a danger to explode for massive gains when plays break down or the Panthers throw an option wrench at opponents’ defense.

The Bucs know far too well what Newton can do, allowing him to scramble for 50 yards in a score in their Week 8 loss to Carolina. But that’s not an isolated incident. Tampa Bay has been burned by running QBs all year. It allowed Geno Smith to rush for 47 yards on six carries in Week 1, chased Russell Wilson around for 36 yards and a score in Week 9, and even allowed Eagles QB Nick Foles to find the end zone on the ground in Week 6.


Atlanta Falcons at Buffalo Bills (-3, 46)

Falcons’ taste for turf vs. Bills’ Toronto troubles

Earlier this week, we highlighted the fact that Buffalo plays four of its final five games away from Ralph Wilson Stadium, including this makeshift home game at the Rogers Centre in Toronto. That trip to T.O. might as well be in Atlanta, taking away the Bills cold-weather edge versus the turf-loving Falcons. Atlanta plays in the Georgia Dome and has faced the elements only three times this season – at Miami, Carolina and Tampa Bay. The Falcons lost all three SU and ATS, averaging just over 15 points in those outdoor games.

Not only does Buffalo miss out on throwing that nasty upstate New York November weather at Atlanta but the Bills have been terrible in their short history of these “home games” north of the border. Buffalo is a dismal 1-4 SU and 1-3-1 ATS in Toronto, including a blowout loss to Seattle last season. Atlanta also marks the Bills’ first Toronto opponent to call an indoor stadium home. That can’t be good for a Buffalo team that is 5-1 ATS at home but only 1-4 ATS on the road.


New York Giants at Washington Redskins (+1, 46)

Giants’ punter Steve Weatherford vs. Redskins’ poor punt returns

Lost in the Giants’ last-second loss to Dallas was the solid performance of punter Steve Weatherford, whose kick placement handcuffed the Cowboys dangerous return game. Weatherford punted five times for an average of 54.6 yards per kick – and that was against some nasty winter wind at MetLife Stadium – keeping two within the 20-yard line and spanking the snot out of one for 65 yards. No wonder the NFL “randomly” drug tested Weatherford following Sunday’s game.

Weatherford’s right foot could have another monster day against the woeful Washington special teams. The Redskins rank in the basement in terms of punt return yards, averaging only 6.2 yards per return and have topped out at 34 yards in terms of biggest return. The Redskins have the lowest average starting field position in the league at 22.74 and will be lucky if they start their sputtering offense beyond the 20-yard line Sunday night.

[Udog]

NFL mid-week line moves: Action 3-to-1 on Broncos

Arizona Cardinals at Philadelphia Eagles - Open: -3.5, Move: -3

The Eagles opened this game favored to win by a 3.5 against the seven win team no one is talking about, the Arizona Cardinals. Bettors have been backing the Red Birds, who are on a four-game winning streak and have covered the spread three times in that span.

"It's a tough game to call, but the action has been liking the Cards plus the points, forcing the move to flat 3," Black told Covers. "This line may sway a bit with juice on the plus or -3, but the number should hold."


Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs - Open: +4, Move: +4.5

Two weeks ago the Chiefs were the NFL's lone unbeaten team and leading the AFC West, but after suffering back-to-back division losses to the Broncos and Chargers, fans and bettors alike are beginning to think the Chiefs have shown thier true colors. And Black says the action is all over the Broncos at about a 3-to-1 clip.

"The line was always going to favor Denver, but injuries to star defensive ends Justin Houston and Tamba Hali make the Broncos bigger faves," said Black. "Hali is still available for Sundays game, but injury news will sway this line either to Denver or Kansas City as kickoff nears."


Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers - Open: -8, Move: -7

The Panthers have won seven straight games and are looking more and more like a team that will be a legitimate threat in the NFC playoffs and it has caused bettors and sportsbook to take notice. A strong opener and Darelle Revis likely to play, this week has action on the visiting Bucs, who are on a three game winning streak of their own.

"I expect this one to go back to the Panthers, to at least a juiced seven, but injury upgrades and downgrades will have a lot to say where this line ends up," said Black. "The action is starting to come back on the flat -7 for Carolina."

[Udog]

NFL

Sunday, December 1

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Sunday's NFL Week 13 betting cheat sheet: Early action
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New England Patriots at Houston Texans (+7.5, 47)

New England won three of the four previous regular-season meetings against Houston, as well as last season's divisional-round playoff matchup. Quarterback Tom Brady has been less than stellar during the Patriots' road skid, throwing just one touchdown against three interceptions. He has been tremendous in December, however, posting a 41-6 record in the month over his career.

Despite its overall struggles, Houston leads the NFL in total defense (290.4 yards per game) and passing defense (171.8). Wide receiver Andre Johnson is eight catches away from becoming the 15th player in league history with 900 career receptions. Defensive end J.J. Watt looks to extend his streak to six straight games with a sack.
LINE: The Patriots opened -9.5 but have been bet down to -7.5. The total is steady at 47.
WEATHER: N/A
POWER RANKINGS: New England (-6.0) + Houston (+6.5) - home field (-3.0) = Patriots -9.5
TRENDS:

* Patriots are 21-8-1 ATS in their last 30 games after surrendering 30 or more points in their previous contest.
* Texans are 2-5 ATS in their last seven December games.
* Over is 5-0 in the last five meetings.


Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (-3.5, 45)

Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick has strung together three consecutive strong outings, including going 22-of-28 for 222 yards and a touchdown in the recent loss to the Colts. Fitzpatrick has replaced injured Jake Locker as the starter and has completed 71.8 percent of his passes for 806 yards, five touchdowns and zero interceptions over the past three games.

Indianapolis quarterback Andrew Luck passed for only 163 yards – the second-lowest output of his career – in last Sunday’s loss to Arizona and he has thrown four of his seven interceptions in the past three games. Colts RB Trent Richardson has just 59 yards on 28 carries over the past four games. Indianapolis rallied from a 14-point first-half deficit to post a 30-27 victory over the Titans on Nov. 14.

LINE: Indianapolis is currently a 3.5-point fave, with the total up a half-point to 45.
WEATHER: N/A
POWER RANKINGS: Tennessee (+2.0) + Indianapolis (-2.5) + home field (-3.0) = Colts -3.5
TRENDS:

* Titans are 5-0 ATS in their last five road games.
* Colts are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games vs. teams with losing records.
* Under is 7-1 in the last eight meetings in Indianapolis.


Jacksonville Jaguars at Cleveland Browns (-7, 40)

Jacksonville ranks 30th in the league in scoring defense which makes last week's effort all the more shocking. The Jaguars limited Houston to 218 total yards and quarterback Case Keenum to just 169 yards through the air. While the offense was far from sensational, Jacksonville rushed for 118 yards, nearly twice its average, and Chad Henne - who was named the starter for the rest of the season - completed 23-of-32 passes.

Cleveland's Brandon Weeden appears to have regained the starting spot at quarterback by default. With Brian Hoyer out for the season and Campbell under evaluation after taking a blow to the head against the Steelers last week, Cleveland will once again turn to Weeden, who is 0-4 as a starter on the season. The Browns are still mathematically alive for a playoff berth but have difficult games left on the road at New England and Pittsburgh.

LINE: The Browns have held as 7-point faves with the total down a half-point to 40.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-30s with a 23 percent chance of snow or mixed precipitation.
POWER RANKINGS: Jacksonville (+8.0) - Cleveland (+5.0) + home field (-3.0) = Browns -6
TRENDS:

* Jaguars are 12-3 ATS in their last 15 Week 13 games.
* Browns are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS loss.
* Under is 21-5-2 in Cleveland's last 28 December games.


Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers (-7.5, 41.5)

Rookie quarterback Mike Glennon has blossomed since taking over the starting job and has thrown for 10 touchdowns and one interception in the past six games. Running back Bobby Rainey also has injected life into the offense with 243 rushing yards and four TDs (three rushing, one receiving) in the past three games. The defense has been solid against the run but susceptible against the pass.

Panthers quarterback Cam Newton (379 yards, 5 TDs) and No. 1 running back DeAngelo Williams (610 yards, 2 TDs) lead a strong ground game and Newton has been efficient when forced to throw the ball. While Newton's maturation has grabbed much of the attention, Carolina's defense has been a force, ranking first in the league in scoring (13.7) and third in total yards (297.5).

LINE: The Panthers opened -9.5 but have been bet down to -7.5. The total is set at 41.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-40s under partly cloudy skies.
POWER RANKINGS: Tampa Bay (+3.5) + Carolina (-5.0) + home field (-3.0) = Panthers -11.5
TRENDS:

* Buccaneers are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games vs. teams with winning records.
* Panthers are 13-3 ATS in their last 16 games vs. teams with losing records.
* Over is 5-1 in the last six meetings.


Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings (-1, 50)

Chicago's recent struggles can't be pinned on quarterback Jake McCown, who has passed for seven touchdowns with only one interception and boasts a 100.8 rating. Matt Forte didn't practice Wednesday, but coach Marc Trestman told reporters he is optimistic about the running back's status for Sunday. The Bears already have the league's worst run defense and they'll likely be without three defensive starters - including linebacker Lance Briggs.

The Vikings let one get away last week, blowing a 16-point lead in the fourth quarter of their 26-26 tie with the Packers. Christian Ponder is back in the driver's seat of the team's quarterback carousel and passed for 233 yards and a touchdown last week. Peterson is still the force that drives the offense, though, and he averages 107.7 yards and has 14 touchdowns in 11 career games against Chicago

LINE: The Vikings have remained 1-point faves with the total rising two points to 50.
WEATHER: N/A
POWER RANKINGS: Chicago (-1.0) + Minnesota (+5.5) - home field (-3.0) = Bears -3.5
TRENDS:

* Bears are 3-14 ATS in their last 17 games vs. NFC foes.
* Vikings are 2-6 ATS in their last eight games on fieldturf.
* The home team is 16-6 ATS in the last 22 meetings.


Arizona Cardinals at Philadelphia Eagles (-3, 48.5)

After defeating three of the league's worst teams (Atlanta, Houston and Jacksonville), Arizona notched an impressive 40-11 victory over AFC South-leading Indianapolis last week. Palmer has thrown for 300-plus yards in back-to-back games and has a 110.8 quarterback rating during the four-game winning streak. As usual, Larry Fitzgerald is the focal point of the Cardinals' offense, hauling in two touchdowns last week.

The Eagles' Chip Kelly, coming off a bye week for the first time as an NFL coach, needed the extra time to improve a defense that ranks last in the league in passing yards allowed. That said, the Eagles' defense has surrendered 21 points or fewer in seven straight games, including their most recent contest - a 24-16 triumph over Washington in which Trent Cole had two of the team's four sacks.

LINE: The Eagles are steady 3-point faves. The total is holding at 48.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-40s with partly cloudy skies.
POWER RANKINGS: Arizona (-2.5) - Philadelphia (-1.0) - home field (-3.0) = Eagles -1.5
TRENDS:

* Cardinals are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games on grass.
* Eagles are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games following a bye week.
* Over is 13-5 in the last 18 meetings.


Miami Dolphins at New York Jets (-2, 40)

Miami's 26th-ranked running game took another blow with the loss of Daniel Thomas (ankle), leaving second-year Lamar Miller as the team's primary back. The Dolphins' rushing woes have led to the team throwing 66 percent of the time, which is fourth highest in the league. The much-maligned offensive line has taken its lumps, but could see the return of center Mike Pouncey who missed the past two games due to an undisclosed illness.

Jets coach Rex Ryan will likely revert to a variation of his "Ground and Pound" game against Miami's 26th-ranked rush defense if New York is to alleviate any of the burden on Smith's shoulders. Chris Ivory suffered an ankle strain on his first carry versus the Ravens and has been limited in practice this week. Should Ivory be limited or out, Bilal Powell will try to get untracked after mustering just 190 yards on 59 carries over his last seven games.

LINE: The Jets opened at -1 but have been bet up by a point. The total is up 1.5-points to 40.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-40s under mostly cloudy skies.
POWER RANKINGS: Miami (+3.5) - New York (+4.0) + home field (-3.0) = Jets -2.5
TRENDS:

* Dolphins are 2-7 ATS in their last nine road games.
* Jets are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games vs. teams with losing records.
* Over is 7-3 in New York's last 10 games vs. divisional foes.


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[Udog]

NFL

Sunday, December 1

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Sunday's NFL Week 13 betting cheat sheet: Late action
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Atlanta Falcons vs. Buffalo Bills (-3, 46.5)

Injuries have been a killer and the schedule hasn't made it any easier for Atlanta, which is in the midst of playing five of seven on the road - and the two home games in that span were against NFC powers Seattle and New Orleans. Still, the Falcons have not been competitive for much of the five-game skid, getting outscored by an average of 18.5 points over a four-week stretch.

Buffalo has endured injury problems of its own, but rookie quarterback EJ Manuel returned from a three-game absence to throw for 245 yards and a pair of touchdowns against the Jets. Running back Fred Jackson said the week off came at a good time for the Bills, who expect to have leading receiver Stevie Johnson and rookie wideout Robert Woods back in the lineup.

LINE: The Bills opened at -3.5 but have been bet down a half-point. The total is currently 46.5
WEATHER: N/A
POWER RANKINGS: Atlanta (+5.5) - Buffalo (+4.0) + home field (-3.0) = Bills -4.5
TRENDS:

* Falcons are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games on fieldturf.
* Bills are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games.
* Over is 6-1 in Atlanta's last seven games following a bye week.


St. Louis Rams at San Francisco 49ers (-7.5, 42)

Kellen Clemens has stepped in nicely for the injured Sam Bradford, recording a 100.5 passer rating with four touchdowns and no interceptions over the last three weeks. Last week, Clemens was helped out by three rookies - Benny Cunningham, Zac Stacy and wideout Tavon Austin, who combined for 261 rushing yards and three touchdowns on 26 attempts.

The 49ers rank last in the NFL in passing yards (173.5 per game), so the return of wideout Michael Crabtree, who had 85 catches for 1,105 yards and nine touchdowns last season - all team highs - should be a welcome sight. Frank Gore, on the other hand, appears to finally be on the decline, as the 30-year-old running back has averaged more than four yards per carry just once in his last six games.

LINE: San Francisco opened as a 9.5-point fave, but is now -7.5. The total is down a point to 42.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-50s under clear skies.
POWER RANKINGS: St. Louis (+2.5) + San Francisco (-6.0) + home field (-3.0) = 49ers -11.5
TRENDS:

* Rams are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games vs. divisional foes.
* 49ers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games.
* Over is 5-2 in the last seven meetings.


Cincinnati Bengals at San Diego Chargers (-1, 48.5)

Quarterback Andy Dalton continues to be plagued by inconsistency despite his three-TD performance against Cleveland, getting intercepted twice and throwing for only 93 yards - the second-fewest yards since his NFL debut. Star wideout A.J. Green was limited to two catches for seven yards by the Browns, halting a streak of five-consecutive 100-yard games.

San Diego typically plays to the level of its competition, owning wins over division leaders Philadelphia, Dallas, Indianapolis and Kansas City while losing to five sub-.500 teams. Philip Rivers is having a career renaissance, bouncing back from two turnover-riddled seasons to lead the league in completion percentage (70.8) while throwing for 22 touchdowns and eight picks.

LINE: The Chargers opened as a 1-point dog but have been bet up to a 1-point fave. The total is up three points to 48.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-70s with sunny skies and wind blowing across the length of the field at 4 mph.
POWER RANKINGS: Cincinnati (-3.0) - San Diego (0) - home field (-3.0) = Even
TRENDS:

* Bengals are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven December games.
* Chargers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games vs. teams with winning records.
* Over is 7-1-2 in the last 10 meetings.


Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (+5, 48.5)

Denver's offense continues to set a near-record pace, as the team's 429 points are the second-most in history through 11 games and Peyton Manning's 3,722 passing yards are the most ever at this point in the season. The defense had put together an impressive string of games before the second half last week when Tom Brady picked apart a banged-up secondary with cornerbacks Champ Bailey, Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie and safety Duke Ihenacho injured.

Kansas City did a credible job of slowing down Denver's explosive offense in the first meeting, but the Chiefs' defense got dinged against the Chargers. Linebackers Tamba Hali (ankle) and Justin Houston (elbow) both left in the first half last week and neither is likely to play - a significant blow as the two have combined for 20 sacks - although Hali is quoted as saying he's ready but does not have medical clearance.

LINE: Denver opened at - 3.5 but the line has been bet up to -5. The total is steady at 48.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-40s with partly cloudy skies.
POWER RANKINGS: Denver (-7.5) - Kansas City (-2.5) - home field (-3.0) = Broncos -2
TRENDS:

* Broncos are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a SU loss.
* Chiefs are 4-10 in their last 14 home games vs. teams with winning road records.
* Under is 5-0-1 in the last six meetings.


New York Giants at Washington Redskins (+1, 46)

Elli Manning did rally New York from a 15-point deficit last week but he threw for only 174 yards and had trouble moving the team for much of the day in a loss against the Cowboys despite Andre Brown and Brandon Jacobs rushing for a combined 202 yards. Victor Cruz has one touchdown catch since scoring three times in Week 1 and Hakeem Nicks, who was scratched last week with an abdominal injury, has yet to get in the end zone.

Robert Griffin III turned in another clunker and Washington was limited to a pair of field goals and 190 yards by San Francisco. Griffin threw for a season-low 118 yards and an interception, giving him 11 on the season - more than double the total from his mesmerizing rookie campaign. Second-year running back Alfred Morris needs 30 yards to reach the 1,000-yard mark again.

LINE: The Giants are holding as 1-point faves with the total down a half-point to 46.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-30s under partly cloudy skies.
POWER RANKINGS: New York (+1.0) + Washington (+5.0) - home field (-3.0) = Giants -1
TRENDS:

* Giants are 2-7 ATS in their last nine road games.
* Redskins are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games vs. the NFC.
* Underdog is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.
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[Udog]

NFL

Sunday, December 1

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Sunday Night Football betting: Giants at Redskins
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New York Giants at Washington Redskins (+1, 46)

Prior to the season, Sunday night's matchup between the visiting New York Giants and Washington Redskins shaped up as a potential showdown for first place in the NFC East. Instead, the prime-time matchup has devolved into a battle to avoid the division cellar, although the Giants still have a faint pulse in the postseason race. New York has to run the table and hope for plenty of help to keep its playoff hopes alive after last Sunday's loss to Dallas halted a four-game win streak.

The Redskins were hoping to duplicate last season's stunning run to the division title, when they overcame a 3-6 start by winning their last seven games. Washington has had a dramatic drop-off this season, and Monday night's lopsided 27-6 home loss to San Francisco left 49ers linebacker Ahmad Brooks questioning whether Redskins quarterback Robert Griffin III was fully recovered from offseason knee surgery. "Everybody can see it," Brooks said. "He shouldn't be playing."

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC.

LINE: The 'Skins opened as 1-point home dogs. The total opened 46.5 and is down to 46.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-30s.

ABOUT THE GIANTS (4-7): Eli Manning did rally New York from a 15-point deficit last week but he threw for only 174 yards and had trouble moving the team for much of the day in a loss against the Cowboys despite Andre Brown and Brandon Jacobs rushing for a combined 202 yards. Victor Cruz has one touchdown catch since scoring three times in Week 1 and fellow wideout Hakeem Nicks, who was scratched last week with an abdominal injury, has yet to get in the end zone. There are also issues on the other side of the ball, with the defense ranking 31st in the league with 18 sacks.

ABOUT THE REDSKINS (3-8): Griffin turned in another clunker and Washington was limited to a pair of field goals and 190 yards by San Francisco. Griffin threw for a season-low 118 yards and an interception, giving him 11 on the season - more than double the total from his mesmerizing rookie campaign. Second-year running back Alfred Morris needs 30 yards to reach the 1,000-yard mark again, and Washington's defense has held only one opponent under 24 points and ranks 31st in points allowed (30.7) and 26th against the pass (270.6 yards).

TRENDS:

* Under is 5-1 in the last six meetings.
* Giants are 0-5 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Redskins are 1-8 ATS in their last nine vs. NFC.
* Under is 4-0 in Redskins last four home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. The Redskins have lost all four prime-time appearances this season.

2. Cruz has 12 receptions for 235 yards and a TD in the past two games versus Washington.

3. Morris had two stellar games against New York last season, rushing for 124 and 120 yards.


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[Udog]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 13

Titans (5-6) @ Colts (7-4)—Major concern for Indy squad that was outscored 93-12 in first half of last four games with only one of four opponents (Cards) a playoff contender; oddly, Colts won two of those four games, beating Tennessee 30-27 (-3) on a Thursday in Week 11, using 12-yard advantage in field position to win tight (TY 366-340) game. Colts won nine of last ten series games, winning last five played here, with three of five wins by 10+ points. Season series has been swept in seven of last 10 years. Last three Titan games were all decided by 4 or less points; Titans are 5-0 vs spread on road, 2-3 SU, losing 20-13 in Seattle, in OT at Houston in Week 2, which was Texans’ last win. Colts are 2-3 as home favorites, with wins by 4-6-6 points and losses to Miami/Rams. In its last five games, Colt defense allowed 27 plays of 20+ yards, giving up 6.9+ yards/pass in all five games. Home teams are 0-5-1 vs spread in AFC South divisional games this season; home favorites are 0-3. Over is 4-0-1 in last five Tennessee games, 5-0 in last five Indy games.

Broncos (9-2) @ Chiefs (9-2)—Denver (-7.5) beat Chiefs 27-17 two weeks ago at Mile High, then both teams lost by FG last week, so winner here leads AFC West with four games left. Season series was split eight of last ten years; Broncos won last four visits here, by 31-4-7-8 points. Not only did Chiefs lose last two games after 9-0 start, remember that win #9 was 23-13 in Buffalo, when KC defense scored two TDs and offense scored none. Chiefs converted only 10 of 34 third down plays in last three games; they had been 37.7% on 3rd down up until then. KC defensive injuries last week make them vulnerable here; if Philip Rivers hung 34 on Chiefs in second half, what will Denver do after Sunday night’s debacle, when they blew 24-0 halftime and lost in OT at Foxboro? Broncos scored 33+ in first eight games, scored 28-27-31 in three post-bye games but in fairness, weather held them back Sunday night; Denver is 3-2 on road, winning by 18-3-8 points, losing at Colts/Pats. NFL-wide, divisional home underdogs are 10-8-1 vs spread. Over is 9-2 in Denver games, 3-8 in KC games.

Jaguars (2-9) @ Browns (4-7)—Cleveland is now 1-16 vs Big Ben, has lost five of last six games overall, as another lost season looms on Lake Erie; until they beat Steelers, Browns won’t be taken seriously by their fans, but they have won three of last four games with Jags, who are 2-1 since their bye and were 14-all at half with Cardinals in third game, so they’re still playing hard for rookie coach Bradley. This is their third road game in four weeks, a Florida team playing by Lake Erie on December 1; Jax is won its last two road games, covered last three- they’ve lost road games by 10-28-14-16 points this year, beat Titans/Texans. Browns are 3-3 at home but have been outscored 99-46 in losing all four Weeden starts. Hoyer/Campbell gave fans glimmer of hope, but they couldn’t stay healthy and Weeden seems like lost cause. Jags lost 23-17/14-10 in last two visits here, after winning first four. AFC North non-divisional favorites are 6-6 vs spread, 5-2 at home; AFC South underdogs are 7-11-1 vs spread, 5-5-1 on road. Over is 5-2 in last seven games for both sides.

Buccaneers (3-8) @ Panthers (8-3)—Carolina won/covered last seven games, but last three were decided by total of nine points, with Newton leading winning TD drives the last two weeks- they have first of two games with Saints next week, could be looking past this game. Tampa Bay is +11 in turnovers (12-1) the last four games, after being even in each of first six games, then -1 in 7th game; they picked off nine passes in last four games, but Revis was hurt in Detroit, check status. Bucs were +5 in turnovers last week and blocked a punt, yet won by only a FG, failing to score on both drives that started in Detroit territory and running ball for only 22 yards. Panthers (-7) outrushed Bucs 129-48 in 31-13 win in Week 8; Panthers had 16-yard edge in field position, with short TD drives of 53/29 yards. Bucs won two of last three visits here; season series has been swept in each of last four years. Home teams are 6-1 vs spread in NFC South divisional games this year, home favorites are 4-0. Over is 5-1-1 in last seven Buc games, 0-3 in Carolina’s last three games.

Bears (6-5) @ Vikings (2-8-1)—Chicago run defense has been problem; in last five games, they’ve given up 985 rushing yards, 5.7 per carry, including 258 in St Louis last week, when they could stack box against Rams’ backup QB. Bears are 2-3 on road, winning at Pitt/GB, but Rodgers got hurt on first series at Lambeau- they’ve given up 82 games in losing both their dome games, at Lions/Rams. Chicago (-6.5) beat Vikings 31-30 in Week 2, in turnover-filled game (4C/3M) games where both teams averaged 7+ yards/pass attempt; Bears won seven of last eight series games, winning two of last three visits here. Vikings are 1-5-1 since their win in London; they blew 23-7 lead in 4th quarter last week to Packers’ 4th-string QB. Minnesota hasn’t forced a turnover in its last three games; they’re -9 in turnovers over their last six games. Vikings had 232 rushing yards last week; Peterson figures to do more damage here. Series was swept in four of last seven years. Home teams are 3-6 vs spread in NFC North divisional games. Over is 8-3 in Bear games this season, 5-0 in last five Viking games.

Cardinals (7-4) @ Eagles (6-5)—Arizona won its last four games, scoring 27+ points in all four (11 TDs on 46 drives); they’re 2-3 on road, beating Jags/Bucs, losing other three by 3-24-12 points. Redbirds outscored last three opponents 39-15 in second half of games, so coaches are making good adjustments; they’ve only turned ball over six times in last five games, none in last two. Eagles won/covered last three pre-bye games, scoring 33.3 ppg, figure to be healthier after bye; they broke long home losing skid last game, have 13 TDs on last 35 drives, averaging 9.5+ yards/pass attempt in all games, but Arizona’s defense held last four foes to 5.5/attempt or less, so good matchup there. Arizona won last three series games, in series where home team won five of last six meetings- this is Cardinals’ first visit here since 48-20 loss in ’08, which they avenged in playoffs that same year. NFC East non-divisional favorites are 8-8 vs spread, 5-5 at home; NFC West underdogs are 6-5-1, 4-4-1 on road. Five of last six Cardinal games went over total; four of last five Eagle games stayed under.

Dolphins (5-6) @ Jets (5-6)—Eight of 11 Miami games (including last four) were decided by 4 or less points; underdogs are 7-4 vs spread in their games. Dolphins won on road in Weeks 1-2, lost three in row on foreign soil since, by 21-10-3 points. Miami has picked off pass in last seven games, but has only 11 takeaways (+1) during that time. Gaggle of teams tied for last AFC playoff spot at 5-6; this is big game. Erratic Jets lost three of last four games with rookie QB and no decent backup behind him- they’ve scored 14 or less points in their six losses, 26+ in four of five wins (18-17 vs Bucs in opener was other win). Jets won four of five home games, losing only 19-6 to Steelers, who were winless at time; they’re -17 in turnovers in six losses, +1 in five wins- they need good field position to score. In last four games, Jets have only 12 points on 24 drives that started 80+ yards from goal line. Home team lost eight of last 11 series games- Miami won four of last five visits here. Underdogs covered five of six AFC East divisional games this season. Average total in last five series games is 32.8. Under is 4-0-1 in last five Miami games; four of last five Jet games went over.

Falcons (2-9) @ Bills (4-7) – Atlanta lost its last five games (1-4 vs spread); teams that lost on Thursday night week before are 8-4 vs spread their next game, but Falcons look like beaten team- last time they won field position was in Week 4 vs Patriots. Falcons are 0-5 SU/ATS on road this year, with last three road losses by 14-24-13 points- they haven’t forced a single turnover in their last three games. Buffalo is +7 (13-6) in turnovers in its wins, -4 (7-11) in losses, so they are lot like Jets, playing with rookie QB and trying to avoid miscues; Bills are 4-2 when they score 23+ points, 0-5 when they don’t. Atlanta allowed 27+ points in four of last five games. Have to remember Manuel missed some games; they’re 3-3 when he starts/finishes a game, 3-4 in his starts. This is Bills’ annual game in Toronto; they’re 3-3 in games where spread is 4 or less points- they figure to be little healthier, coming off their bye. AFC East non-divisional favorites are 4-2 vs spread; NFC South underdogs are 6-7. Five of last seven Buffalo games, three of last four Atlanta road games went over the total.

Rams (5-6) @ 49ers (7-4)—St Louis lost 30-15 (+6) in only previous outdoor game this season; how is it Dec 1 and they’ve played one game outdoors? Niners are bully team; their last six wins are all by 12+ points, but they’ve lost four games, averaging 5.9 or less yards per pass attempt. In their seven wins, they’ve been at 6.7+ six times and 6.0 in the other game. Rams just outscored last two foes 80-28 in winning twice with backup QB Clemens under center, using big plays in all three phases to score; they’re +7 in turnovers last two games; only once in last five games (Titans) have they allowed more than 102 rushing yards. St Louis is 2-3 as road dogs, losing away games by 7-24-15 points, winning at Texans/Colts, two domed stadiums. SF gets Crabtree back from injury here, which figures to help pass offense now in dogfight with Cardinals for Wild Card spot; they beat Rams 35-11 (-3) in Week 4 Thursday game, outrushing Rams 219-18, holding Rams to 188 TY. St Louis has played better since Bradford got hurt; not the backup QB, but OL, defense and special teams have picked it up.

Patriots (8-3) @ Texans (2-9)— In their last four games, NE outscored opponents 106-42, after being outscored 61-30 in first half of those games; in last two games, they’ve been outscored 34-3 in the first half, but each game came down to last minute. Potential trap game for Pats, coming off of last-minute primetime decisions with Carolina/Denver and with AFC East salted away; NE lost its last three road games and its only two wins on foreign soil are 23-21 at Buffalo, 30-23 at Atlanta in Weeks 1-4. Patriots are 4-3 as favorites this year, 0-2 on road. Texans are horrendous, losing last nine games, with only one cover all year, Week 7 at Arrowhead. Houston have only forced a turnover in four of 11 games this year; they’ve converted only 13 of last 47 3rd down plays and gained only 218 yards last week, at home vs 2-9 Jaguars. Patriots only lost field position battle twice this season; they’ve got 10 takeaways (+3) in last four games. AFC East non-divisional favorites are 4-2 vs spread; AFC South underdogs are 7-11-1 vs spread, 2-6 at home. Three of last four Houston games went over the total.

Bengals (7-4) @ Chargers (5-6)—San Diego’s upset at Arrowhead last week snapped 3-game skid, put them in six-team logjam for last AFC Wild Card slot; four of their last five games are at home, where Bolts are 2-2, losing to Texans/Broncos, beating Dallas/Colts. Chargers have turned ball over only four times (+4) in last six games, after giving it away 10 times (-7) in first five games- they’ve had 26 plays of 20+ yards in last five games. Bengals are off bye, appear headed to AFC North title in down year for division, but loss here cuts their lead to one game over winner of Steelers/Ravens. Cincy is 5-0 when it scores 27+ points, 2-4 when it doesn’t; they’re 2-4 on road, with only wins by FG at both Detroit/Buffalo. Bengals are 0-3 on grass fields this season. Three of last four SD games were decided by 4 or less points, or in OT. Bengals won last two series meetings 34-20/20-13; they’ve lost five of last seven visits here. AFC North non-divisional underdogs are 8-5-2 against the spread, 4-3-2 on road; AFC West favorites are 10-9, 5-5 at home. I’m thinking a Week 12 bye has to help a team’s legs recover.

Giants (4-7) @ Redskins (3-8)—Washington looked like dead team Monday night, with RGIII unable to run fast enough to get out of bounds to avoid hits; inserting Cousins would give shot in arm to passing game, but would create other, bigger problems since this season is shot anyway. Redskins won three of last four series games, after Giants had gone 9-1 in last ten series games before that, winning 28-14/17-16 in last two played here, but they’ve lost five of last seven games, with none of losses by less than 7 points, while two wins were 45-41/30-24, narrow wins. Skins are 3-2 in games where spread was 3 or less points. Giants didn’t play road game in November; they’re 1-4 SU on road, with only win 15-7 (+5.5) at Philly; Big Blue had 4-game win streak snapped at home by Dallas last week, a deflating loss that basically ended their season. Giants allowed a TD on defense/special teams in five of their last six games. NFC East divisional home teams (all HFs) are 4-5 vs spread this season. Three of Giants’ last four road games stayed under the total.

Saints (9-2) @ Seahawks (10-1)—New Orleans offense isn’t nearly as potent on road (19.2 ppg) as in Superdome (32.7) but Seattle has attrition issues at CB and this is bad time for that. Seahawks won last six pre-bye games, have had 15 days since last game; they’ve got 3-game lead in NFC West, so not as much urgency as Sants, who are battling Carolina in NFC South and still have to play Panthers twice, with first meeting next week. Seahawks are 3-2 as home favorites this year, with home wins by 21-28-7-3-21 points- they were favored by 13/16 points in two non-covers. Saints’ two losses are 30-27 in Foxboro, 26-20 at Jets; they’re 1-1 as underdogs this year, winning SU in Chicago. NO defense allowed only five TDs on 31 drives in last three games, giving up 16.7 ppg. NFC West non-divisional favorites are 14-5-1 vs spread, 8-4-1 at home. NFC South underdogs are 6-7, 4-4 on road. Teams split 12 series meetings; Seattle won last one 41-36 here in 2010 playoffs. Saints don’t want to be coming back here in January. Three of last four Seattle home games went over the total.

[Udog]

NFL weather report: Sunday's forecasts

Jacksonville Jaguars at Cleveland Browns (-7, 40)
Temperatures will be in the mid-30s with a 39 percent chance of snow. Wind will blow toward the NE endzone at 6 mph.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers (-7.5, 41.5)
Temperatures will be in the high-40s with partly cloudy skies and a small 16 percent chance of rain.

Arizona Cardinals at Philadelphia Eagles (-3, 48.5)
Temperatures will be in the low-40s with wind blowing across the field at 5 mph.

Miami Dolphins at New York Jets (-2, 40)
There is a 24 percent chance of rain in the forecast. Temperatures will be in the low-40s.

St. Louis Rams at San Francisco 49ers (-7.5, 41)
Skies will be clear and temperatures will be in the low-60s.

Cincinnati Bengals at San Diego Chargers (-1, 48.5)
Skies will be clear with temperatures in the mid-70s.

Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (+5, 48.5)
Temperatures will be in the mid-40s.

New York Giants at Washington Redskins (+1, 46)
Temperatures will be in the high-30s.

[Udog]

Essential betting tidbits for Week 13 of NFL football

- The Tennessee Titans allow a paltry 8.8 points in the first half, but a 16.7 points in the second half.

- The Indianapolis Colts have won nine of the previous 10 encounters with the Titans and are 3.5-point home faves Sunday.

- Perhaps Jacksonville Jaguars RB Maurice Jones-Drew has turned the corner on his season? The vet is coming off his best game of the season, carrying the ball 14 times for 84 yards and one TD in last week's win over the Houston Texans.

- Sunday marks the fourth time all season that the Cleveland Browns are favored. The Browns are 1-2 ATS and SU in the three games they have favored in thus far.

- Per @NFLonFOX, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are just the second team in league history to win three-straight games after starting the campaign 0-8. The first was the '78 Cardinals.

- The fave is 10-2 ATS in the last 12 meetings between the aforementioned Bucs and the Carolina Panthers. The Panthers are currently 7.5-point home faves Sunday.

- The Chicago Bears have scored at least 18 points in the first 11 games of the season for the first time in franchise history.

- Vikings RB Adrian Peterson notched 100 rushing yards on 26 carries - and had one fumble lost - in the Vikings Week 2 loss to Chicago.

- The red-hot Arizona Cardinals are riding a four-game winning streak and are 3-1 ATS over that stretch. The Cards are 3-point road dogs in Philly.

- Speaking of the Eagles, the league's leading rusher, LeSean McCoy (1,009 yards) will go up against the league's second best rush defense. The Cards allow just 81.3 yards rushing on the season.

- The road team has covered in the last two meetings (and five of the last seven) between the New York Jets and Miami Dolphins. The Dolphins are currently 2-point road dogs Sunday.

- The New England Patriots are currently mired in a three game road losing streak. They haven't lost four straight road games since 2000.

- The Houston Texans are the worst ATS bet in the league with a record of 2-9 ATS. The Texans are 7.5-point home dogs as they host the Pats. Both of Houston's covers have come on the road (they are 0-6 ATS at home).

- The Buffalo Bills 'host' the Atlanta Falcons from Toronto. The Bills are 1-4 SU and 1-3-1 ATS in their five games north of the border.

- The Bills are the only team in the league with two RBs with over 500 yards (Fred Jackson, C.J. Spiller), while the Falcons are 28th against the run (130 ypg).

- The St. Louis Rams travel to the Bay to take on the San Francisco 49ers. The Rams are 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings and are 7.5-point dogs Sunday.

- Rams DBs will have another WR to check for. According to various reports, Crabtree is set to play Sunday. Crabtree had 12 catches for 171 yards and one TD in two games against the Rams in 2012.

- Per @ESPNNFL, the San Diego Chargers own the NFL's second best record in December and January (35-9) over the last 10 seasons.

- The game between the Cincinnati Bengals and San Diego Chargers will be the first local tv blackout of the season.

- Since Peyton Manning joined the Denver Broncos, they are 9-0 SU against the AFC West. Manning is 10-1 SU in his career against the Kansas City Chiefs.

- The Chiefs best pass rushers, Tamba Hali and Justin Houston, picked up injuries last week. Hali is questionable but Houston is out.

[Udog]

NFL betting: Top 5 key Week 13 injuries

The injury bug continues to bite teams in the playoff hunt as the NFL calendar flips to December.

The Seattle Seahawks find themselves down a wide receiver - again - while the St. Louis Rams will take on a division rival with their starting running back ready to go. And Peyton Manning will have all of his offensive weapons at his disposal when the Denver Broncos face the Chiefs in Kansas City.

Here's a look at five of the most notable Week 13 injuries:

Jason Campbell, QB, Cleveland Browns (out, concussion)

Campbell was beaten up in last week's loss to the Pittsburgh Steelers, having his ribs bruised and suffering a concussion. The first injury didn't keep him out of the game, but the second one did - leaving the Browns with no other option than to put much-maligned Brandon Weeden back on the field. Campbell didn't practice all week and will sit this one out as Weeden gets the call. He'll be in tough against a Jacksonville team that has won two of its last three games after opening the season with eight consecutive losses.

Cleveland is a 7-point favorite against the visiting Jaguars, with the total at 39.5.


Percy Harvin, WR, Seattle Seahawks (doubtful, hip)

A stretch that started full of optimism has turned sour for Harvin, who is still dealing with the effects of his major off-season hip surgery. After seeing limited action in his season debut against the Minnesota Vikings two weeks ago, Harvin reportedly suffered a setback regarding his hip this week and has been downgraded as a result. Harvin will likely be given the week off to see how his injury responds, with Seattle still rolling atop the NFC West and far more interested in having Harvin healthy for the postseason.

Seattle is a 4.5-point favorite in the Monday nighter against visiting New Orleans. The total is 47.5.


Julius Thomas, TE, Denver Broncos (questionable, knee)
Knowshon Moreno, RB, Denver Broncos (probable, ankle)

It's a good-news kind of week for Manning and the Broncos, who are expected to have both Thomas and Moreno on the field for Sunday's pivotal showdown with the Chiefs. Thomas practiced on a limited basis for most of the week but showed no side effects from the knee injury that sidelined him for last week's overtime loss to New England. Moreno, who busted out for 227 rushing yards in that game, suffered an ankle injury late but practiced in full on Friday and declared himself good to go.

The Broncos are 5.5-point favorites in Kansas City, with the total at 49.5.


Zac Stacy, RB, St. Louis Rams (probable, concussion)

There were more than a few worried Rams fans after Stacy left last week's victory over the Chicago Bears with a concussion. But the rookie running back passed all the required protocols while easing himself into a bigger practice workload. He has been cleared to return this weekend, but will be in tough against a San Francisco defense that has allowed the sixth-fewest rushing yards in the league. Of note for the Niners is the return of wide receiver Michael Crabtree, who will appear in his first game since tearing his Achilles in the off-season.

St. Louis is 7.5-point underdog Sunday in San Francisco. The total is 41.

[Udog]

Where the action is: Sunday's NFL line moves

We had a decent sized portion of NFL action on Thanksgiving Thursday, but the main course is ready to be served up Sunday.

We talk to oddsmakers about the action coming in on some of Sunday's matchups and where the lines could close come kickoff:

Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs - Open: +4, Move: +5.5

News in regards to a pair of the Chiefs best players on the defensive side of the ball has swayed the line to Denver. LB Justin Houston will be out Sunday (and could be out 2-3 weeks) while Tamba Hali, a doubt most of the week, has declared himself 'ready to go'.

"Action has been loving Denver since release by about a 4-to-1 clip," says Aron Black of Bet365. "It's the same as the SU action. This line will move one way or another depending on up/downgrades."


Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers - Open: -8, Move: -7

The Panthers come into this NFC South meeting riding a sizzling seven-game winning streak and are 6-1 ATS during that stretch. The Buccaneers are hot in their own right, having won three straight, but injuries could play a big factor Sunday.

"Tampa Bay has been much better recently, but are in tough with TE’s and RB’s missing and/or banged up," says Black. "Carolina has played tough D, and though they have their own injury worries, they should be too much for Tampa. One of the more lopsided games we have action wise, with about 8-to-1 Carolina action ATS."

At BetDSI, this is a classic "sharps versus public" game with sharp bettors backing the vastly improved Bucs.

"Sharp vs Public split on the Tampa vs Carolina match up with smart money backing the Bucs at the +8 line value," says one oddsmaker. "The public is siding with Cam Newton and the red-hot Carolina Panthers."


Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings - Open: -1, Move: +1, Move: -1

Most outlets opened the Vikes as a small 1-point home fave and it has teetered to either side throughout the week. The Bears went to slight road faves Saturday, before the line swung back to the Vikes.

"Bears RB Matt Forte and Vikings RB Adrian Peterson are both carrying injuries but are both probable and the line has been back and forth," Black said. "Action has been split ATS but more have taken early lines on Chicago as a very small dog to small fave. Total action likes the over by about 3-to-1 clip to under."

[jt4545]

Thanks for the info, good luck today

[Udog]

Thanks for the info, good luck today

NP, jt! Good luck to you, too! Here's a little more....

[Udog]

NFL

Sunday, December 1

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Patriots at Texans: What bettors need to know
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New England Patriots at Houston Texans (+7.5, 47)

The New England Patriots look to end their three-game road losing streak when they visit the reeling Houston Texans on Sunday. New England began the road portion of its schedule with close victories at Buffalo and Atlanta before dropping decisions to Cincinnati, the New York Jets and Carolina. The Patriots rebounded from the loss to the Panthers by rallying for a thrilling 34-31 overtime triumph over Denver last week.

New England spotted the Broncos a 24-0 lead before scoring 31 unanswered points, the biggest comeback in franchise history. Stephen Gostkowski booted a 31-yard field goal with 1:56 left in overtime to give the Patriots their third win in four overall contests. Houston suffered a 13-6 defeat against lowly Jacksonville last week as its losing streak reached nine games.

TV: 1 p.m. ET, CBS.

LINE: The Pats opened -9.5 but are now -7.5. The total opened at 47.

WEATHER: N/A

ABOUT THE PATRIOTS (8-3): New England won three of the four previous regular-season meetings between the teams as well as last season's divisional-round playoff matchup. Quarterback Tom Brady has been less than stellar during the Patriots' road skid, throwing just one touchdown against three interceptions. He has been tremendous in December, however, posting a 41-6 record in the month over his career.

ABOUT THE TEXANS (2-9): Despite its overall struggles, Houston leads the NFL in total defense (290.4 yards per game) and passing defense (171.8). Wide receiver Andre Johnson is eight catches away from becoming the 15th player in league history with 900 career receptions. Defensive end J.J. Watt looks to extend his streak to six straight games with a sack.

TRENDS:

* Patriots are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four meetings.
* Over is 5-0 in the last five meetings.
* Patriots are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games in Week 13.
* Texans are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 games overall.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Houston has averaged 15.3 points during its franchise-record losing streak.

2. The Patriots allowed a season-worst 280 rushing yards against Denver last week and ranks 31st in the league with an average of 139.7 yards allowed on the ground.

3. New England hasn't lost four consecutive road games since 2000.


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