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NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 13 (Thursday, November 28 - Monday, December 2)

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  • NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 13 (Thursday, November 28 - Monday, December 2)






    NFL Trends and Indexes

    Thursday, November 28 - Monday, December 2

    Additional trends and information will be added as available.

    NOTE:
    As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
    Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.
    Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.


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  • #2
    NFL Week 13 opening line report: Oddsmakers giving thanks

    This Thanksgiving, Las Vegas oddsmakers are thankful for a relatively tight set of NFL games on the holiday Thursday.

    Outside of the Dallas Cowboys being favored by 9.5 points at home to Oakland, the other two contests should stay within a touchdown, which is good news on a day when the turkey-stuffed public loves to pound the favorite and the Over.

    “That’s the way it is anytime you see marquee schedules,” Peter Korner, founder of the Nevada-based odds service The Sports Club, tells Covers. “Everyone will have their separate wagers rolling into each other on Thanksgiving. But this year’s schedule presents a pretty good challenge to bettors.”

    The biggest question on everyone’s mind heading into Thursday’s trio of games is the status of Green Bay Packers QB Aaron Rodgers, who has missed the last three games with a broken collarbone. Korner is advising his clients to keep the game off the board until more is known on Rodgers but says to expect a 7-point swing if the former MVP is ready to go.

    “Without (Rodgers), I’d have to say Detroit by a touchdown,” Korner says of Thursday’s early game. “If he’s back, probably around a pick. Detroit was a ‘bet against’ team last week, with early money on Tampa Bay. We’ll see what happens with them with a short week.”

    Korner expects the majority of the middle game action to come in strong on Dallas. Most shops are dealing the Cowboys as 9.5-point home favorites but Korner isn’t convinced books will want to go above the key number of 10.

    “We’re wary of the Oakland-Dallas game. That’s the trouble game,” says Korner. “Oakland has come down with such a thud last week and Dallas is coming off a big win. All the action with be on Dallas.”

    As for the night cap, Korner says books couldn’t be happier to have a rivalry like Pittsburgh-Baltimore split the action. This AFC North grudge match could have a ton of parlay action rolling into it depending on the outcome of the first two games.

    “This is the game you want,” he says. “These types of games, anything can happen. The difference is pretty much the home field.”

    Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (+2)

    With both of these AFC West powers coming off a loss, bettors have some tough terrain to scale in Week 13. Denver took the first meeting with Kansas City easily two weeks ago but playing in Arrowhead is a completely different scenario.

    “These two are meeting again on such short notice that it is coming in around a pick,” says Korner. “There is a revenge factor for Kansas City but certainly the Chiefs need to redefine themselves and this is the game to do it.”


    New Orleans Saints at Seattle Seahawks (-6)

    Korner sent out this spread at Seattle -4 but agrees with the move many books have taken to Seahawks -6. New Orleans just hasn’t been the same team away from the Big Easy and heads to the toughest venue in football – CenturyLink Field – where Monday temperatures are expect to be around freezing with a chance of showers.

    “That line plays into Seattle, not that the conditions and the home field aren’t noted,” he says. “New Orleans’ last game is going to be on people’s minds – scoring only 17 points on the road in Atlanta – and how different that scoring is between home and the road."

    Comment


    • #3
      NFL line watch: Sharp money in love with Bucs again

      Spread to bet now

      Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+9.5) at Carolina Panthers

      With three straight wins under its belt, sharps are once again quick to jump on undervalued Tampa Bay this week. This line opened at 10, dropped to 9.5, with 8.5's and 8's starting to make an appearance on the board now as well.

      They say divisional contests are always the most difficult and, while the Bucs won't be playing in the postseason this year, there's no doubt they'll be looking to parlay their recent success and throw a monkey-wrench into the Panthers' playoff plans.

      While Carolina did gut out the 20-16 win over the Fish last week, it was not the overall dominant performance that we've become accustomed to seeing over its previous six wins. With a game at division-leading New Orleans next week, there's no question that this contest sets up as a classic "lookahead / trap" game for the home side. If you can still get 9.5, I'd recommend you seriously consider grabbing it as fast as possible.


      Spread to wait on

      Cincinnati Bengals (Pick) at San Diego Chargers

      If you think the Bengals can build off their 41-20 win over the Browns two weeks ago, I'd recommend waiting a bit closer to kickoff before getting down as the public jumps on the suddenly "hot" home side.

      At 5-6, obviously San Diego is not where it hoped it would be at this point of the season. However, after a couple of subpar years, there's no question that its veteran QB Philip Rivers is having a resurgent season. San Diego went into its bye in Week 8 off back-to-back victories, only to lose three straight. Last week's 41-38 win in Kansas City has once again given the Bolts some life.

      This line opened as a pick’em, but there are some 1's and 1.5's starting to creep onto the board as well. Bettors should also note that Cincinnati has struggled on the road this year, going just 2-4 SU and 1-4-1 ATS.


      Total to watch

      Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (48.5)

      Any total involving the Denver Broncos is interesting to me. These teams played two weeks ago in Denver and the Broncos would come away with the 27-17 victory, staying below the posted number of 49.

      After 11 games, the O/U for Denver is at 9-2, including 4-1 on the road. And after playing to two straight Unders, the total soared above the posted number in its 34-31 collapse at New England last week.

      On the other side of the field, the Chiefs came out of their bye and lost two in a row, including last week's brutal 41-38 blunder to San Diego at home. Before getting down on this one, take note that the total has gone Under the number in five of these divisional foes’ last six in the series.

      Comment


      • #4
        Packers' Rodgers 'slim to none' to play on Thanksgiving

        Cheeseheads and Green Bay bettors alike were holding out hope that MVP QB Aaron Rodgers would be able to return to action this Thursday when the Packers head to Detroit to take on the Lions on Thanksgiving.

        As reported by Dan Gantt of Pro Football talk, Aaron Rodgers wants to play this week, but Packers coach Mike McCarthy told reporters it would be a 'huge stretch' to think he would be sufficiently recovered from a broken collar bone to play the Lions on Thursday. Rodgers suffered the broken collar bone four weeks ago against Chicago.

        McCarthy is leaning towards starting Matt Flynn at QB for the Packers (5-5-1 ATS) against the Lions (6-5 ATS), after solid relief work replacing Scott Tolzien against Minnesota this past Sunday.




        Doomed in the dome: Bills struggle in Toronto

        The Buffalo Bills make their annual trip north of the border as they 'host' the Atlanta Falcons at the Rogers Centre in Toronto, Canada this week.

        The date with Atlanta marks the sixth regular season game the Bills will play in the Rogers Centre since 2008.

        Despite the game being billed as a home game, Buffalo has had very little success in Toronto.

        In the five games in Ontario, the Bills own a 1-4 SU record, 1-3-1 ATS record and 1-4 O/U mark.

        The lone Over was the result of the Seattle Seahawks hanging 50 points on the dismal Bills in last season's game.

        The Bills are currently 3.5-point favorites and the total is 46.

        Comment


        • #5
          NFL
          Long Sheet

          Week 13


          Thursday, November 28

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          GREEN BAY (5 - 5 - 1) at DETROIT (6 - 5) - 11/28/2013, 12:30 PM
          Top Trends for this game.
          DETROIT is 39-23 ATS (+13.7 Units) in home games revenging a loss against opponent since 1992.
          GREEN BAY is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
          GREEN BAY is 57-35 ATS (+18.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
          DETROIT is 22-42 ATS (-24.2 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
          DETROIT is 47-69 ATS (-28.9 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
          DETROIT is 4-15 ATS (-12.5 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 since 1992.
          DETROIT is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
          DETROIT is 33-56 ATS (-28.6 Units) in November games since 1992.
          DETROIT is 30-51 ATS (-26.1 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.

          Head-to-Head Series History
          GREEN BAY is 5-0 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
          GREEN BAY is 5-0 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
          4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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          OAKLAND (4 - 7) at DALLAS (6 - 5) - 11/28/2013, 4:30 PM
          Top Trends for this game.
          DALLAS is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

          Head-to-Head Series History
          There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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          PITTSBURGH (5 - 6) at BALTIMORE (5 - 6) - 11/28/2013, 8:30 PM
          There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

          Head-to-Head Series History
          BALTIMORE is 2-2 against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
          BALTIMORE is 3-2 straight up against PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
          3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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          Sunday, December 1

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          TENNESSEE (5 - 6) at INDIANAPOLIS (7 - 4) - 12/1/2013, 1:00 PM
          Top Trends for this game.
          TENNESSEE is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
          TENNESSEE is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
          INDIANAPOLIS is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in December games over the last 3 seasons.
          INDIANAPOLIS is 17-37 ATS (-23.7 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
          INDIANAPOLIS is 11-24 ATS (-15.4 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.

          Head-to-Head Series History
          INDIANAPOLIS is 3-1 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
          INDIANAPOLIS is 4-1 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
          3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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          DENVER (9 - 2) at KANSAS CITY (9 - 2) - 12/1/2013, 4:25 PM
          Top Trends for this game.
          DENVER is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons.
          DENVER is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
          DENVER is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
          DENVER is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.

          Head-to-Head Series History
          DENVER is 3-2 against the spread versus KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
          DENVER is 4-1 straight up against KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
          4 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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          JACKSONVILLE (2 - 9) at CLEVELAND (4 - 7) - 12/1/2013, 1:00 PM
          Top Trends for this game.
          JACKSONVILLE is 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons.
          JACKSONVILLE is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 2 seasons.
          JACKSONVILLE is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.

          Head-to-Head Series History
          CLEVELAND is 1-0 against the spread versus JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
          CLEVELAND is 1-0 straight up against JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
          1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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          TAMPA BAY (3 - 8) at CAROLINA (8 - 3) - 12/1/2013, 1:00 PM
          Top Trends for this game.
          TAMPA BAY is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in December games over the last 3 seasons.
          CAROLINA is 49-25 ATS (+21.5 Units) in December games since 1992.
          CAROLINA is 70-38 ATS (+28.2 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
          CAROLINA is 46-22 ATS (+21.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.

          Head-to-Head Series History
          CAROLINA is 3-2 against the spread versus TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
          CAROLINA is 3-2 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
          4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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          CHICAGO (6 - 5) at MINNESOTA (2 - 8 - 1) - 12/1/2013, 1:00 PM
          Top Trends for this game.
          CHICAGO is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons.
          CHICAGO is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) in all games this season.
          CHICAGO is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
          CHICAGO is 5-17 ATS (-13.7 Units) in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points since 1992.
          CHICAGO is 31-50 ATS (-24.0 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
          CHICAGO is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) against conference opponents this season.
          CHICAGO is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
          CHICAGO is 9-30 ATS (-24.0 Units) in road games in December games since 1992.

          Head-to-Head Series History
          CHICAGO is 3-2 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
          CHICAGO is 4-1 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
          3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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          ARIZONA (7 - 4) at PHILADELPHIA (6 - 5) - 12/1/2013, 1:00 PM
          Top Trends for this game.
          PHILADELPHIA is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992.
          PHILADELPHIA is 1-11 ATS (-11.1 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
          PHILADELPHIA is 1-11 ATS (-11.1 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
          PHILADELPHIA is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) in a home game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points since 1992.
          PHILADELPHIA is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in home games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
          PHILADELPHIA is 1-11 ATS (-11.1 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.

          Head-to-Head Series History
          ARIZONA is 2-0 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
          ARIZONA is 2-0 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
          2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

          --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

          MIAMI (5 - 6) at NY JETS (5 - 6) - 12/1/2013, 1:00 PM
          Top Trends for this game.
          NY JETS are 15-29 ATS (-16.9 Units) in home games in December games since 1992.

          Head-to-Head Series History
          NY JETS is 1-1 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
          NY JETS is 2-2 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
          2 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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          ATLANTA (2 - 9) vs. BUFFALO (4 - 7) - 12/1/2013, 4:05 PM
          Top Trends for this game.
          BUFFALO is 10-22 ATS (-14.2 Units) in road games off a win against a division rival since 1992.

          Head-to-Head Series History
          There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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          ST LOUIS (5 - 6) at SAN FRANCISCO (7 - 4) - 12/1/2013, 4:05 PM
          Top Trends for this game.
          ST LOUIS is 96-131 ATS (-48.1 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
          ST LOUIS is 103-134 ATS (-44.4 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
          ST LOUIS is 20-36 ATS (-19.6 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
          SAN FRANCISCO is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons.
          SAN FRANCISCO is 31-16 ATS (+13.4 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
          SAN FRANCISCO is 31-16 ATS (+13.4 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
          SAN FRANCISCO is 22-9 ATS (+12.1 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

          Head-to-Head Series History
          ST LOUIS is 3-2 against the spread versus SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
          SAN FRANCISCO is 3-1 straight up against ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
          3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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          NEW ENGLAND (8 - 3) at HOUSTON (2 - 9) - 12/1/2013, 1:00 PM
          Top Trends for this game.
          HOUSTON is 37-21 ATS (+13.9 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992.
          NEW ENGLAND is 100-73 ATS (+19.7 Units) in road games since 1992.
          NEW ENGLAND is 100-73 ATS (+19.7 Units) in road lined games since 1992.
          NEW ENGLAND is 157-117 ATS (+28.3 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
          NEW ENGLAND is 51-32 ATS (+15.8 Units) in December games since 1992.
          HOUSTON is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in all games this season.
          HOUSTON is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in all lined games this season.
          HOUSTON is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home games this season.
          HOUSTON is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home lined games this season.
          HOUSTON is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.

          Head-to-Head Series History
          NEW ENGLAND is 2-0 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
          NEW ENGLAND is 2-0 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
          2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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          CINCINNATI (7 - 4) at SAN DIEGO (5 - 6) - 12/1/2013, 4:25 PM
          Top Trends for this game.
          CINCINNATI is 115-148 ATS (-47.8 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.

          Head-to-Head Series History
          CINCINNATI is 1-0 against the spread versus SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons
          CINCINNATI is 1-0 straight up against SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons
          1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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          NY GIANTS (4 - 7) at WASHINGTON (3 - 8) - 12/1/2013, 8:30 PM
          Top Trends for this game.
          NY GIANTS are 28-51 ATS (-28.1 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
          NY GIANTS are 48-28 ATS (+17.2 Units) in road games off a division game since 1992.
          WASHINGTON is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) as an underdog this season.
          WASHINGTON is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) against conference opponents this season.
          WASHINGTON is 17-37 ATS (-23.7 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
          WASHINGTON is 10-22 ATS (-14.2 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.

          Head-to-Head Series History
          WASHINGTON is 4-0 against the spread versus NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
          WASHINGTON is 3-1 straight up against NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
          3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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          Monday, December 2

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          NEW ORLEANS (9 - 2) at SEATTLE (10 - 1) - 12/2/2013, 8:40 PM
          Top Trends for this game.
          SEATTLE is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons.
          SEATTLE is 20-9 ATS (+10.1 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
          SEATTLE is 20-9 ATS (+10.1 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
          SEATTLE is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
          SEATTLE is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
          SEATTLE is 14-3 ATS (+10.7 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
          SEATTLE is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
          SEATTLE is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in home games in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
          SEATTLE is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in December games over the last 3 seasons.
          SEATTLE is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
          SEATTLE is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
          SEATTLE is 5-17 ATS (-13.7 Units) when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992.
          SEATTLE is 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) after a bye week since 1992.

          Head-to-Head Series History
          There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

          --------------------------------------------------------------------------------

          Comment


          • #6
            NFL
            Short Sheet

            Week 13


            Thurs., Nov. 28

            Green Bay at Detroit, 12:30 ET
            Green Bay: 13-4 ATS versus division opponents
            Detroit: 3-12 ATS off an extremely close home loss by 3 points or less

            Oakland at Dallas, 4:30 ET
            Oakland: 7-0 UNDER after allowing 375 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games
            Dallas: 6-15 ATS after 1 or more consecutive wins

            Pittsburgh at Baltimore, 8:30 ET
            Pittsburgh: 2-10 ATS in road games off 1 or more consecutive unders
            Baltimore: 41-23 ATS as a home favorite of 7 points or less


            Sun, Dec. 1

            Tennessee at Indianapolis, 1:00 ET

            Tennessee: 3-11 ATS versus division opponents
            Indianapolis: 7-0 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses

            Denver at Kansas City, 4:25 ET
            Denver: 12-3 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points
            Kansas City: 33-56 ATS after having won 4 or 5 out of their last 6

            Jacksonville at Cleveland, 1:00 ET
            Jacksonville: 0-6 ATS after 1 or more consecutive wins
            Cleveland: 8-0 UNDER after having lost 4 out of their last 5

            Tampa Bay at Carolina, 1:00 ET
            Tampa Bay: 3-12 ATS off 1 or more consecutive unders
            Carolina: 15-4 ATS after playing their last game on the road

            Chicago at Minnesota, 1:00 ET
            Chicago: 2-8 ATS in all lined games
            Minnesota: 9-2 OVER in all games

            Arizona at Philadelphia, 1:00 ET
            Arizona: 2-10 ATS off a home blowout win by 21 points or more
            Philadelphia: 18-7 ATS when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest

            Miami at NY Jets, 1:00 ET
            Miami: 6-0 ATS after having lost 5 or 6 out of their last 7
            NY Jets: 15-29 ATS in home games in December

            Atlanta at Buffalo, 4:05 ET
            Atlanta: 37-20 ATS in road games after allowing 6 or more yards/play in their previous game
            Buffalo: 2-11 ATS after 1 or more consecutive wins

            St Louis at San Francisco, 4:05 ET
            St Louis: 10-28 ATS revenging a same season loss against opponent
            San Francisco: 22-9 ATS in games played on a grass field

            New England at Houston, 1:00 ET
            New England: 33-17 ATS after allowing 30 points or more last game
            Houston: 0-6 ATS in home games

            Cincinnati at San Diego, 4:25 ET
            Cincinnati: 21-8 ATS after leading in their previous game by 14 or more points at the half
            San Diego: 0-6 ATS in home games after allowing 30 points or more last game

            NY Giants at Washington, 8:30 ET
            Ny Giants: 15-5 ATS in road games after gaining 200 or more rushing yards last game
            Washington: 1-7 ATS against conference opponents


            Mon, Dec. 2

            New Orleans at Seattle, 8:40 ET

            New Orleans: 10-2 OVER in road games against NFC West division opponents
            Seattle: 8-1 ATS after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better

            Comment


            • #7
              NFL

              Week 13


              ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              Trend Report
              ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

              Thursday, November 28

              12:30 PM
              GREEN BAY vs. DETROIT
              Green Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Detroit
              The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Green Bay's last 5 games when playing on the road against Detroit
              Detroit is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Green Bay
              Detroit is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Green Bay

              4:30 PM
              OAKLAND vs. DALLAS
              Oakland is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games on the road
              Oakland is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Dallas
              Dallas is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
              The total has gone OVER in 6 of Dallas's last 9 games at home

              8:30 PM
              PITTSBURGH vs. BALTIMORE
              The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games on the road
              Pittsburgh is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games on the road
              Baltimore is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Pittsburgh
              The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Baltimore's last 5 games at home


              Sunday, December 1

              1:00 PM
              MIAMI vs. NY JETS
              Miami is 2-7 SU in its last 9 games on the road
              Miami is 4-1 SU in their last 5 games when playing on the road against NY Jets
              The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the NY Jets last 5 games when playing at home against Miami
              NY Jets are 2-4 SU in their last 6 games

              1:00 PM
              NEW ENGLAND vs. HOUSTON
              The total has gone OVER in 5 of New England's last 5 games when playing Houston
              The total has gone OVER in 4 of New England's last 6 games
              The total has gone OVER in 5 of Houston's last 6 games at home
              Houston is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing New England

              1:00 PM
              JACKSONVILLE vs. CLEVELAND
              Jacksonville is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games on the road
              Jacksonville is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Cleveland
              Cleveland is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Jacksonville
              Cleveland is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games

              1:00 PM
              CHICAGO vs. MINNESOTA
              The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chicago's last 6 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
              Chicago is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games when playing on the road against Minnesota
              Minnesota is 1-5-1 SU in its last 7 games ,
              The total has gone OVER in 5 of Minnesota's last 5 games at home

              1:00 PM
              ARIZONA vs. PHILADELPHIA
              Arizona is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
              The total has gone OVER in 5 of Arizona's last 6 games
              The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 5 games at home
              Philadelphia is 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games at home

              1:00 PM
              TAMPA BAY vs. CAROLINA
              Tampa Bay is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
              Tampa Bay is 4-13 SU in its last 17 games
              Carolina is 14-7 SU in its last 21 games when playing Tampa Bay
              Carolina is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games at home

              1:00 PM
              TENNESSEE vs. INDIANAPOLIS
              Tennessee is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games
              The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Tennessee's last 8 games when playing on the road against Indianapolis
              Indianapolis is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Tennessee
              The total has gone OVER in 4 of Indianapolis's last 5 games at home

              4:05 PM
              ATLANTA vs. BUFFALO
              Atlanta is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing Buffalo
              Atlanta is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
              Buffalo is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Atlanta
              Buffalo is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games

              4:05 PM
              ST. LOUIS vs. SAN FRANCISCO
              The total has gone OVER in 7 of St. Louis's last 8 games
              St. Louis is 6-16-1 SU in its last 23 games ,on the road
              San Francisco is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing St. Louis
              San Francisco8-2-1 SU in its last 11 games when playing St. Louis

              4:25 PM
              DENVER vs. KANSAS CITY
              The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Denver's last 6 games when playing Kansas City
              Denver is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Kansas City
              Kansas City is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Denver
              Kansas City is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games

              4:25 PM
              CINCINNATI vs. SAN DIEGO
              Cincinnati is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games on the road
              Cincinnati is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against San Diego
              San Diego is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Cincinnati
              The total has gone OVER in 6 of San Diego's last 7 games when playing Cincinnati

              8:30 PM
              NY GIANTS vs. WASHINGTON
              The total has gone UNDER in 5 of the NY Giants last 6 games when playing Washington
              NY Giants are 10-4 SU in their last 14 games when playing Washington
              Washington is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
              The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington's last 6 games


              Monday, December 2

              8:40 PM
              NEW ORLEANS vs. SEATTLE
              The total has gone OVER in 4 of New Orleans's last 6 games
              New Orleans is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
              Seattle is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
              Seattle is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing New Orleans

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              Comment


              • #8
                NFL
                Armadillo's Write-Up

                Week 13


                Thursday's games

                Packers (5-5-1) @ Lions (6-5)—Immense pressure on Detroit here; not only have Lions lost last nine Thanksgiving games, four of last five Turkey Day losses were by 12+ points. Lions lost 15 of last 16 series games, with only win a 7-3 in ’10 when Rodgers sat out (sound familiar???). Packers are 0-3-1 with Rodgers out of lineup; Flynn came off bench to rally Pack to 26-all tie vs Vikings last week, after they trailed 23-7 in 4th quarter. Flynn has only started handful of NFL games, but he led Pack to 45-41 win over Lions on frigid day at Lambeau two years ago. Detroit was -5 in turnovers and had punt blocked in last week’s home loss to Bucs, yet they still only lost by a FG; Lions lost first meeting with Pack 22-9 (+6.5) in Week 5 when Megatron was late scratch- they were outgained 449-286 that day, with both teams scoring only one TD. NFC North divisional home favorites are 3-3-1 vs spread this season; Lions failed to cover last three home games. Pack is 0-3 as an underdog this season. Six of last eight Packer games stayed under total; four of last six Detroit games went over.

                Raiders (4-7) @ Cowboys (6-5)— Oakland lost in last 0:10 at home last week; they’re 5-1 vs spread in game following a loss this year, 3-2 as road underdogs, losing away games by 4-16-17-4 points, with win at skidding Houston. Last three Raider games were all decided by 5 or less points. This is only second home game in last eight weeks for Cowboys, who had big divisional win Sunday in Swamp; Dallas is 3-1 as home favorite this year, after being 3-17 in Garrett’s first three years. Cowboys are 3-2 SU at home, winning by 5-24-15-4 points, with only loss 51-48 shootout with Denver. Raiders turned ball over 10 times (-4) in Pryor’s last four starts; they’ve turned it over only twice (even) in McGloin’s two starts. Hard to believe they’re interested in McGloin as long-term starter, but he hasn’t been awful in his first two NFL starts. Oakland is 6-4 in this series, winning three of four visits here, with only loss 24-7 in last visit, in ’09. NFC North non-divisional home favorites are 5-5 vs spread; AFC West underdogs are 8-3, 5-1 on road. Over is 3-0-1 in last four Raider games, 4-0 in last four Dallas tilts.

                Steelers (5-6) @ Ravens (5-6)—Resurgent Pitt won five of last seven games after 0-4 start; they beat Ravens 19-16 (-1.5) at home in Week 7, outrushing Ravens 141-82 (season high in RY for Pitt) in game with two TDs, seven FGs. Steelers are 8-5 in last 13 series games, 3-2 in last five here; they’re 2-3 in true road games, winning at Jets/Browns, losing other three by 10-3-24 points. Ravens are 4-1 at home, with only loss 19-17 to Packers; six of their last eight games were decided by 6 or less points, with a 7th game decided by six- they’re 3-2 as a favorite. After scoring 19 or less points in five of first seven games (11 TDs/78 drives), Steelers averaged 32 ppg in last four (12 TDs/48 drives); if Pitt makes playoffs, could see Big Ben getting MVP votes- they turned ball over only once (+7) in last three games, after being -11 in first eight. Ravens allowed only one offensive TD on 22 drives in last two games. Home teams won/covered seven of eight AFC North games this year. Five of last seven Steeler games, seven of last ten Baltimore games stayed under the total.

                Comment


                • #9
                  NFL

                  Thursday, November 28


                  ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                  NFL Thanksgiving betting: Packers at Lions
                  ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                  Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (-6, 50)

                  The Green Bay Packers have been in a tailspin since losing Aaron Rodgers to a broken collarbone, and they might have to survive another game without their star quarterback when they travel to Detroit for a Thanksgiving showdown with the Lions. The Packers need a win to stay afloat in the NFC North after a 26-26 tie against Minnesota on Sunday. Green Bay is one win behind the Bears and Lions, who wasted a chance to take the lead by losing 24-21 to Tampa Bay.

                  Rodgers hasn't officially been ruled out yet, but with a short week it seems Matt Flynn will get a chance to deliver Green Bay's first win since Week 8. Flynn came off the bench to pass for 218 yards and a touchdown against the Vikings, rallying the Packers from a 23-7 deficit. The Lions know Flynn all too well - he threw six touchdown passes against them in the 2011 regular-season finale.

                  TV: 12:30 p.m. ET Fox.

                  LINE: The line has held steady at the Lions -6. The total hasn't moved from 50.

                  WEATHER: N/A.

                  POWER RANKINGS: Green Bay (+5) - Detroit (-3) + home field (-3) = Detroit -11

                  ABOUT THE PACKERS (5-5-1, 5-6 ATS): Green Bay's four-game winless streak can't be blamed entirely on the quarterback situation, as the defense has
                  allowed 409.5 yards per game over the past four contests compared to 331.1 in the first seven. The Packers also are minus-3 in turnover margin over that span, though they did not have a giveaway against Minnesota. Rookie running back Eddie Lacy has been the workhorse for Green Bay with Rodgers out, and he gained 158 yards on 31 touches against Minnesota.

                  ABOUT THE LIONS (6-5, 5-6 ATS): Detroit has been hurt by self-inflicted wounds, committing eight turnovers in back-to-back losses since seizing control of the division with a win over the Bears in Week 10. Turnovers are the only thing slowing down the Lions' offense, which ranks sixth in total yards (412.1) and third in passing (308.4). The defense has held five straight opponents under 100 yards rushing but has struggled against the pass.

                  TRENDS:

                  * Packers are 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings.
                  * Under is 4-0 in the last four meetings in Detroit.
                  * Packers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings in Detroit.
                  * Favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.

                  EXTRA POINTS:

                  1. Lacy has recorded 22 or more carries in seven of the last eight games, averaging 94.4 rushing yards during that span.

                  2. Detroit has lost its Thanksgiving Day game the last nine years. It's last win was a 22-14 triumph over Green Bay in 2003.

                  3. Johnson has 861 receiving yards over the past five contests, the most in a five-game span in NFL history.


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                  Comment


                  • #10
                    NFL

                    Thursday, November 28


                    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                    NFL Thanksgiving betting: Raiders at Cowboys
                    ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                    Oakland Raiders at Dallas Cowboys (-10, 46.5)

                    The Dallas Cowboys are tied atop the NFC East and can keep pressure on the competition with a win over the visiting Oakland Raiders on Thursday. The Cowboys go into their traditional Thanksgiving contest tied with Philadelphia for the division lead and riding momentum of a 24-21 road win over the New York Giants. The Raiders gave up a late touchdown in a 23-19 loss to Tennessee to fall one game behind a group of six teams tied for the final AFC wild card.

                    Dallas plays three of its last five games at home - including a season-ending showdown with the Eagles - where it is 4-1 with the only loss a 51-48 shootout with Denver. Oft-criticized quarterback Tony Romo boasts a 105.7 rating at home compared to an 89.7 mark on the road. Undrafted rookie Matt McGloin will make his third straight start at quarterback for Oakland, earning another turn in favor of now-healthy Terrelle Pryor after passing for 457 yards with four touchdowns and one interception in the past two games.

                    TV: 4:30 p.m. ET, CBS.

                    LINE: The Cowboys opened as 9.5-point home faves and have been bet to -10. The total opened at 45.5 and has moved up to 46.5.

                    WEATHER: N/A.

                    POWER RANKINGS: Oakland (+5.5) - Dallas (-3) + home field (-3) = Dallas -11.5

                    ABOUT THE RAIDERS (4-7, 6-4-1 ATS): McGloin has done a credible job leading the offense considering running back Darren McFadden remains sidelined with a hamstring injury and receiver Denarius Moore (shoulder) sat out Sunday. The Raiders rank fifth in the league in rushing, but that's skewed by the 504 yards Pryor has racked up in eight games. Oakland's defense has to do a better job of getting off the field after allowing scoring drives of 16 and 14 plays on Tennessee's final two possessions.

                    ABOUT THE COWBOYS (6-5, 8-3 ATS): Dallas limped into its bye week after a 49-17 loss at New Orleans, but Romo's late heroics against the Giants might have saved the Cowboys' season. The offense is still inconsistent and leans too heavily on the pass, but having DeMarco Murray back to full strength should help get the running game going. Dallas allows 432.2 yards per game - most in the league - and gave up 202 rushing yards to New York in an otherwise solid performance.

                    TRENDS:

                    * Cowboys are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games.
                    * Raiders are 0-3-1 ATS versus a team with a winning record.
                    * Under is 8-2 in the Raiders last 10 games following an ATS loss.
                    * Over is 5-2 in Cowboys last seven versus a team with a losing record.

                    EXTRA POINTS:

                    1. Romo's 11 game-winning drives in the fourth quarter or overtime are the most in the NFL over the past three seasons.

                    2. Raiders K Sebastian Janikowski is 15-of-22 on field-goal attempts after going 62-of-69 the previous two seasons, and he is 11-of-15 from inside 50 yards compared to 49-of-50 from that range the past two years.

                    3. Dallas CB Morris Claiborne aggravated his hamstring injury against the Giants and is not likely to play versus Oakland.


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                    Comment


                    • #11
                      NFL

                      Thursday, November 28


                      ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                      NFL Thanksgiving betting: Steelers at Ravens
                      ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

                      Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (-2.5, 40)

                      The Baltimore Ravens appeared to be losing a battle to a Super Bowl hangover while the Pittsburgh Steelers merely appeared punch drunk, but the fierce rivals have each turned around their seasons to move into playoff contention. Pittsburgh goes for its fourth straight victory when it visits Baltimore on Thursday night in an AFC North clash that could have major postseasons ramifications. The Steelers edged the visiting Ravens 19-16 on Oct. 20 on a field goal as time expired.

                      Pittsburgh's 0-4 start was a daunting enough obstacle to overcome, but a 55-31 shellacking at New England on Nov. 3 appeared to be the knockout blow for any playoffs hopes. The Steelers rebounded with three consecutive wins to join the Ravens in a tie for second in the division. The Ravens endured three straight losses - by a total of 11 points - before beating AFC North leader Cincinnati on Nov. 10, and they bounced back from another narrow defeat in Chicago by dominating the New York Jets on Sunday.

                      TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC.

                      LINE: The line opened at -1 and has jumped as high as -3 before settling at -2.5. The total opened at 41 and has been bet down to 40.

                      WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high 20s with a 7 mph wind blowing towards the East endzone.

                      POWER RANKINGS: Pittsburgh (0) - Baltimore (+1.5) + home field (-3) = Baltimore -1.5

                      ABOUT THE STEELERS (5-6, 5-6 ATS): Pittsburgh was held under 20 points in five of its first seven games but has come alive offensively during its winning streak, averaging 29 points. Ben Roethlisberger has cut down his interceptions and thrown seven touchdowns versus one pick while being sacked only once in the three-game run after getting taken down 35 times in the first nine contests. Antonio Brown has four TDs in his last four games and became the fourth wideout in franchise history to reach 80 catches, while a rejuvenated defense is allowing an average of 16 points since the beating by New England.

                      ABOUT THE RAVENS (5-6, 6-5 ATS): Quarterback Joe Flacco became the league's highest-paid player after delivering a Super Bowl championship to Baltimore last season but he has already thrown a career-high 14 interceptions, including six in the past four games. Ray Rice failed to build on his season-high 131-yard performance on Nov. 17, managing only 30 yards on 16 carries Sunday to mark the seventh time he has been held to 36 yards or fewer. The defense allowed its lowest point total since December 2009 by registering three sacks, forcing three turnovers and limiting New York to 220 yards of offense.

                      TRENDS:

                      * Steelers are 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings in Baltimore.
                      * Steelers are 7-3-2 ATS in their last 12 meetings.
                      * Ravens are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games.
                      * Under is 7-0 in Ravens last seven home games.

                      EXTRA POINTS:

                      1. The teams have split the last 10 meetings - with eight of them decided by three points.

                      2. Roethlisberger is 37-11 in his career against division opponents.

                      3. The Ravens have recorded a sack in 22 consecutive games, matching a franchise record.


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                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Thanksgiving's biggest NFL betting mismatches

                        Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (-6, 50)

                        Packers’ passive defense vs. Lions’ turnover troubles

                        The Lions can blame Matt Stafford’s four interceptions for last week’s upset loss to Tampa Bay. And two fumbles and an INT didn’t help matters in Week 11’s loss to Pittsburgh. Detroit is coughing up the ball at an alarming rate – or it would be alarming if Thursday’s opponent wasn’t the toothless Packers defense. According to Yahoo!Sports, Green Bay is one of only four teams without a pick-six this season.

                        The Packers have only four interceptions overall and have scooped up just six fumbles – the second fewest takeaways in the NFC. If the Cheese Heads are going to get by another week without Aaron Rodgers, they need the defense to give them some extra touches. And it doesn't look like they have the ball hawks to take advantage of a mistake-prone Lions offense, which sits 26th in giveaways per game (1.9).


                        Oakland Raiders at Dallas Cowboys (-10, 46.5)

                        Raiders’ rush attack vs. Cowboys’ run defense

                        We usually like to dig a little deeper when it comes to our betting mismatches but this deserves mention, especially with Dallas giving so many points at home. The Cowboys defense has been steamrolled by runners this season, giving up an average of 133.6 yards on the ground per game. They've been extra soft against the run in their last three outings, for an average of 204.3 yards against and five rushing TDs. The Giants, Saints and Vikings all chewed up the turf and control the pace of those games.

                        The Raiders lost their dual-threat QB Terrelle Pryor to a knee injury but remain a danger on the ground. Oakland is fourth in the NFL in rushing - 140.6 yards per game – and return two key cogs of that run game Thursday. Oft-injured RB Darren McFadden should be back on the field this week, giving the Silver and Black a two-pronged attack along with RB Rashad Jennings, who has 413 rushing yards in his last four games. The offensive line also welcomes back stud LT Jared Veldheer, who will help both the pass and run gameplans.


                        Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (-2.5, 40)

                        Steelers’ ramped-up attack vs. Ravens' offense stuck in reverse

                        The Ravens offense is grasping at straws and QB Joe Flacco knows it. The Super Bowl MVP ripped on his coaches’ use of the wildcat formation this week, stating “I think it makes you look like a high school offense”. Well Joe, the fact that Baltimore has averaged just over 18 points in its last six games makes the team look more like a high school offense. That and the fact you have as many interceptions (6) as you have touchdowns (6) in your last four games. Maybe your coaches are trying to tell you something.

                        Pittsburgh, on the other hand, has undergone an offensive renaissance in recent weeks. The Steelers are scoring almost 30 points per game over their last four outings and, as we mentioned last week, are picking up the pace with a no-huddle attack. The offensive line is finally coming together, giving plenty of running room for RB Le'Veon Bell. That’s opened things up for the passing game as well. Ben Roethlisberger has been the anti-Flacco, throwing for six TDs and zero interceptions in the last two games.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Lions' slump and other NFL Thanksgiving betting records

                          Disappointment has been right there with the turkey and mashed potatoes on the Thanksgiving Day menu for Detroit Lions fans, who have suffered though a nine-game losing skid on the holiday Thursday.

                          Detroit has managed to cover only twice during that decade-long drought, coming through for loyal Lions bettors in a crushing 34-31 overtime loss as a 3.5-point home underdog last Thanksgiving.

                          Looking back, Thanksgiving has been a pretty crappy occasion for football fans in the Motor City, and not because they have the in-laws coming to town. Since 1985, the Lions are 11-17 SU and 12-16 ATS during their annual Thanksgiving game.

                          Hopefully, Detroit backers were also getting down on the Under every Thanksgiving. The Lions are a profitable 5-23 O/U on the holiday Thursday and aren’t the only Thanksgiving NFL staples leaning towards low-scoring games on Turkey Day.

                          The Dallas Cowboys have produced an 8-20 O/U record on Thanksgiving since 1985. But, unlike Detroit, America’s Team has produced a profit against the spread – be it a slight one – with a 15-13 SU and 16-12 ATS mark on Thanksgiving in that span.

                          Here’s a look at the other four teams taking the field on Thanksgiving and their record in the holiday spotlight since 1985:

                          Green Bay Packers: 5-2 SU, 4-3 ATS, 3-4 O/U
                          Oakland Raiders: 0-1 SU, 0-1 ATS, 0-1 O/U
                          Pittsburgh Steelers: 0-2 SU, 0-2 ATS, 0-2 O/U
                          Baltimore Ravens: 1-0 SU, 1-0 ATS, 0-1 O/U

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Essential betting tidbits for the NFL's Thanksgiving games

                            We know you will be grabbing for an extra helping of juicy turkey this Thanksgiving, so why not some extra juicy betting tidbits as a perfect side to go along with Thursday's Thanksgiving NFL action.

                            Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (-7, 49)

                            - The Packers will be without Aaron Rodgers for the fourth straight game since breaking his collarbone and his absence has not only taken a toll on his team, but on bettors as well. The once high-powered Pack offense have gone 0-4 ATS without Rodgers and have only hit the Over once in that span.

                            - The Packers will turn to Matt Flynn at QB, whose last start for the Packers back in 2011 when he defeated the Lions in a 45-41 shootout, setting single game Packers records for yards (480) and passing TDs (6) in the process.

                            - The Lions have been mere kittens on Thanksgiving, losing nine consecutive games on turkey day, going 1-8 ATS. Matthew Stafford is 0-3 in three career Thanksgiving games, with only four TDs and seven INTS, which goes along with his recent trend of turning over the football.

                            - Calvin Johnson has scored a TD in his last four Thanksgiving games, but has only averaged 4.5 receptions and 70 receiving yards in those games.


                            Oakland Raiders at Dallas Cowboys (-7.5, 47.5)

                            - The Raiders are a surprising 6-4-1 ATS this season and are even better on the road with 3-1-1 ATS a record. They are 6-3 ATS when they rush for 100 or more yards, the Cowboys give up 133.6 yards rushing per game.

                            - Undrafted free-agent QB Matt McGloin makes only his third start for the Raiders and his first in the national spotlight. He has thrown for 457 yards and four TDs in those games. But when he is under center the Raiders need to improve on third down, going 8-for-28.

                            - The Cowboys have quietly become the best team in the NFL when it comes to covering the spread. After last week's road victory over the Giants, the 'Boys now sit at 8-3 ATS.

                            - Another undrafted free-agent QB, Tony Romo, seems to enjoy feasting on Thanksgiving, more specifically on his opponents. Romo has a 5-1 record in Thanksgiving Day games throwing for 17 TDs and only 6 INTs.


                            Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (-2.5, 41)

                            - The Steelers, who many thought were long dead in the playoff race after a 0-4 start, are back in the mix after rattling off five wins in their last seven games going 5-2 ATS in that span. The Steelers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games in Baltimore.

                            - Big Ben has been a big reason for the Steelers turn-around this season. Since the bye he has thrown 15 TDs and six INTs with a QB rating of over 98.

                            - The Ravens are 3-0 this season straight up and ATS when they out-rush their opponents. The problem is they have only out-rushed opponents three times
                            in 11 games this season. Ray Rice has been a shell of his former self this season and is averaging less than three yards per carry.

                            - The Ravens have been a much better home team compared to when they play on the road. They are 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS at home versus 1-5 SU and 2-4
                            ATS on the road.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              NFL
                              Dunkel


                              Week 13

                              Pittsburgh at Baltimore
                              The Steelers travel to Baltimore on Thanksgiving and look to build on their 4-1 ATS record in their last 5 road games against the Ravens. Pittsburgh is the pick (+3) according to Dunkel, which has the game Even. Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+3). Here are all of this week's picks.

                              THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 28

                              Game 303-304: Green Bay at Detroit (12:30 p.m. EST)

                              Dunkel Ratings: Green Bay 129.104; Detroit 133.189
                              Dunkel Line: Detroit by 4; 45
                              Vegas Line: Detroit by 7; 49 1/2
                              Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (+7); Under

                              Game 305-306: Oakland at Dallas (4:30 p.m. EST)
                              Dunkel Ratings: Oakland 122.900; Dallas 137.166
                              Dunkel Line: Dallas by 14 1/2; 52
                              Vegas Line: Dallas by 7 1/2; 47 1/2
                              Dunkel Pick: Dallas (-7 1/2); Over

                              Game 307-308: Pittsburgh at Baltimore (8:30 p.m. EST)
                              Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 135.133; Baltimore 135.207
                              Dunkel Line: Even; 35
                              Vegas Line: Baltimore by 3; 41
                              Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+3); Under


                              SUNDAY, DECEMBER 1

                              Game 425-426: Tennessee at Indianapolis (1:00 p.m. EST)

                              Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 125.678; Indianapolis 133.215
                              Dunkel Line: Indianapolis by 7 1/2; 49
                              Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 3 1/2; 45
                              Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (-3 1/2); Over

                              Game 427-428: Jacksonville at Cleveland (1:00 p.m. EST)
                              Dunkel Ratings: Jacksonville 122.874; Cleveland 126.841
                              Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 4; 34
                              Vegas Line: Cleveland by 7; 40
                              Dunkel Pick: Jacksonville (+7); Under

                              Game 429-430: Denver at Kansas City (4:25 p.m. EST)
                              Dunkel Ratings: Denver 141.429; Kansas City 133.666
                              Dunkel Line: Denver by 8; 55
                              Vegas Line: Denver by 5; 49
                              Dunkel Pick: Denver (-5); Over

                              Game 431-432: Tampa Bay at Carolina (1:00 p.m. EST)
                              Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 126.915; Carolina 143.312
                              Dunkel Line: Carolina by 16 1/2; 36
                              Vegas Line: Carolina by 7 1/2; 41
                              Dunkel Pick: Carolina (-7 1/2); Under

                              Game 433-434: Chicago at Minnesota (1:00 p.m. EST)
                              Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 134.228; Minnesota 127.379
                              Dunkel Line: Chicago by 7; 52
                              Vegas Line: Minnesota by 1; 49
                              Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+1); Over

                              Game 435-436: Arizona at Philadelphia (1:00 p.m. EST)
                              Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 135.879; Philadelphia 134.146
                              Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1 1/2; 53
                              Vegas Line: Philadelphia by 3; 48 1/2
                              Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+3); Over

                              Game 437-438: Miami at NY Jets (1:00 p.m. EST)
                              Dunkel Ratings: Miami 129.422; NY Jets 133.484
                              Dunkel Line: NY Jets by 4; 36
                              Vegas Line: NY Jets by 2; 40
                              Dunkel Pick: NY Jets (-2); Under

                              Game 439-440: Atlanta at Buffalo (4:00 p.m. EST)
                              Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 123.751; Buffalo 124.785
                              Dunkel Line: Buffalo by 1; 51
                              Vegas Line: Buffalo by 3 1/2; 46 1/2
                              Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (+3 1/2); Over

                              Game 441-442: St. Louis at San Francisco (4:00 p.m. EST)
                              Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 127.116; San Francisco 143.759
                              Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 16 1/2; 38
                              Vegas Line: San Francisco by 8; 42
                              Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-8); Under

                              Game 443-444: New England at Houston (1:00 p.m. EST)
                              Dunkel Ratings: New England 139.322; Houston 124.312
                              Dunkel Line: New England by 15; 42
                              Vegas Line: New England by 7; 47
                              Dunkel Pick: New England (-7); Under

                              Game 445-446: Cincinnati at San Diego (4:25 p.m. EST)
                              Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 137.276; San Diego 132.549
                              Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 4 1/2; 52
                              Vegas Line: San Diego by 1 1/2; 48
                              Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+1 1/2); Over

                              Game 447-448: NY Giants at Washington (8:30 p.m. EST)
                              Dunkel Ratings: NY Giants 131.716; Washington 128.047
                              Dunkel Line: NY Giants by 3 1/2; 51
                              Vegas Line: NY Giants by 1; 46
                              Dunkel Pick: NY Giants (-1); Over


                              MONDAY, DECEMBER 2

                              Game 449-450: New Orleans at Seattle (8:40 p.m. EST)

                              Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 140.250; Seattle 138.527
                              Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 1 1/2; 44
                              Vegas Line: Seattle by 6; 47
                              Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (+6); Under

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