NCAAF Trends and Indexes - Week 13 (Tuesday, November 19 - Saturday, November 23)

[Udog]

NCAAF

Saturday, November 23

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Saturday's NCAAF Top 25 betting cheat sheet: Evening action
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New Mexico Lobos at Fresno State Bulldogs (-31.5, 66)

The Lobos' triple-option offense will be hard-pressed to make up for the loss of Gautsche and Carrier, who have rushed for 777 yards and 1,122 yards, respectively, to key the second-ranked attack in the nation in rushing average at 323.8 yards per game. The Lobos will likely have to rely more on Mitchem's stronger arm - a concern for Fresno State defensive coordinator Nick Toth.

The Bulldogs are off to their best start since 1989 as one of only six FBS teams still unbeaten this season. Fresno State can clinch the West Division of the MVC by beating the Lobos for the fourth year in a row. Expect Carr to again look for sophomore Davante Adams, who has been his favorite receiver this season with 91 catches for 967 yards and 15 touchdowns to lead the nation in scoring receptions.

LINE: Fresno State is a 31.5-point fave after opening -31. The total has risen one point to 66.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-60s with partly cloudy skies.

TRENDS:

* Lobos are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following an ATS loss.
* Bulldogs are 16-34-1 ATS in their last 51 home games.
* Over is 6-1 in Fresno State's last seven games following a bye week.


California Golden Bears at Stanford Cardinal (-31.5, 56)

A crippling loss to USC last week has left No. 12 Stanford reeling as they look to secure a berth in one of the major BCS bowls. That could mean a long Saturday afternoon for the California Golden Bears as they look to end their nine-game losing skid against a Cardinal team that will be out for points in the 116th edition of The Big Game. The Golden Bears have approached 200 rushing yards in consecutive games.

The Cardinal attack centers around senior running back Tyler Gaffney, who was sensational in defeat against USC with 158 rushing yards and a pair of scores. That marked his fifth consecutive 100-yard effort and he has scored on the ground in six straight games. More importantly, his 1,201 yards on the season leave him 194 shy of the single-season school record set in 2009 by Toby Gerhart, now a member of the Minnesota Vikings.

LINE: Stanford is favored by 31.5 after opening at -30.5. The total has held at 56.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-60s under clear skies.
TRENDS:

* Golden Bears are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games following an ATS loss.
* Cardinal are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games vs. teams with losing records.
* Road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.


Arizona State Sun Devils at UCLA Bruins (+2.5, 61.5)

With two touchdowns in the win over Oregon State, Marion Grice became the 15th player in the conference since 1978 to score at least 20 touchdowns in a season and is two shy of tying the school record of 22. Robert Nelson was named Pac-12 Defensive Player of the Week after collecting two of the Sun Devils’ four interceptions against the Beavers, giving him six for the season.

Linebacker Myles Jack remained a two-way standout in the win, following up his 120-yard debut at running back in a Nov. 9 win against Washington with four rushing touchdowns against Washington to set a Bruins freshman record. In addition to becoming the 13th UCLA player to score at least four rushing TDs in a game, Jack added five tackles against the Huskies.

LINE: Arizona State is installed as a 2.5-point fave, with the total down a half-point to 61.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-50s with wind blowing diagonally out of the NE at 6 mph.

TRENDS:

* Sun Devils are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 November games.
* Bruins are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a SU win.
* Over is 7-1 in UCLA's last November games.


Missouri Tigers at Mississippi Rebels (+2.5, 58)

Franklin, who was completing 67.7 percent of his passes before the injury, missed four starts with a sprained throwing shoulder. L'Damian Washington and Green-Beckham each have nine touchdown catches after Green-Beckham set a school record with four TDs against Kentucky. Michael Sam has a conference-best 10 sacks and the Tigers, who have forced a turnover in 40 straight games, lead the league with 17 interceptions.

The Rebels' starting corners - 5-9 Senquez Golson and 5-8 Mike Hilton - will have their hands full trying to slow Missouri's big receivers. Running back Jeff Scott (488 yards, two touchdowns) returned last week after missing three games because of a bone spur. Bo Wallace (2,664 passing yards and 232 rushing yards) ranks third in the SEC in total offense (289.6 yards per game) and has 17 passing touchdowns and four on the ground.

LINE: Missouri opened as a 3-point fave, but the line has been bet down a half-point. The total is set at 58.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-40s with wind blowing diagonally out of the N at 7 mph.

TRENDS:

* Tigers are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games.
* Rebels are 4-12 ATS in their last 16 November games.
* Over is 8-2 in Mississippi's last 10 home games.


Baylor Bears at Oklahoma State Cowboys (+9.5, 78)

Despite the absences of their top two running backs on the depth chart (Lache Seastrunk and Glasco Martin) as well as their second-leading receiver (Tevin Reese), the Bears still amassed 63 points and 675 total yards in last Saturday’s 63-34 win over Texas Tech. Baylor, which is averaging 300.3 yards rushing and 384.4 yards passing, could become the first FBS team ever to average over 300 yards in both categories.

One week after collecting the Big 12 Special Teams Player of the Week award for his 100-yard kickoff return touchdown versus Kansas, Cowboys cornerback Justin Gilbert took home the league’s defensive award after intercepting two passes and returning one for another score against Texas. Gilbert is the conference’s all-time leader in kickoff return touchdowns with six and needs one more to tie the NCAA career record.

LINE: Baylor is a 9.5-point fave, down from a 10.5-point open. The total is holding at 78.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-30s with wind blowing across the width of the field at 6 mph.

TRENDS:

* Bears are 8-0 ATS in their last eight November games.
* Cowboys are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 home games.
* Home team is 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings.


USC Trojans at Colorado Buffaloes (+22.5, 54)

The Trojans intercepted two passes in the fourth quarter - including one by Dion Bailey at the USC 6-yard line with the game tied at 17 - while holding Stanford to a season low for points. Sophomore Cody Kessler (64.7 completion rate, 13 touchdowns, six interceptions) has done a solid job managing the offense while throwing only two picks in his last six games.

Freshman quarterback Sefo Liufau had a career day last week with 364 yards and three touchdowns against one of the worst defenses in the country, and was quick to credit Paul Richardson and Nelson Spruce. “Those two are just so good that it definitely makes things easier for me,'' Liafau said of the receiving tandem, which combined for 19 receptions and recorded 140 yards apiece.

LINE: USC is installed as a 22.5-point fave, with the total set at 54.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-20s with partly cloudy skies.

TRENDS:

* Trojans are 5-0 ATS in their last five conference games.
* Buffaloes are 5-11 ATS in their last 16 home games.
* Over is 4-0 in Colorado's last four games vs. teams with winning records.


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[Udog]

Where the action is: Saturday's NCAAF line moves

Week 13 of the college football slate can be one of the toughest tasks for NCAAF bettors. Teams are chasing bowl berths, prepping for their season finales, or looking forward to forgetting about football for a while. That hasn’t slowed down the action at the sportsbooks, which have juggled the lines all week.

We talk with Mike Perry of Sportsbook.ag about the biggest moves on the NCAAF Week 13 board:

Oregon Ducks at Arizona Wildcats – Open: -18.5, Move: -21.5

If you listened to Steve Merril in this week’s NCAAF Line Watch article, then hopefully you quickly got down on the Ducks below the key number of three touchdowns. It didn’t take long for the money to pour in on Oregon, forcing this line to jump three points in a matter of hours. Some markets are still dealing the Ducks below -21.

“Less than two hours after we had game open, sharp bets came on Oregon,” Perry tells Covers. “The Ducks are now on the inside track to being the top seed from the Pac-12. Wildcats are going the other way, failing to cover in three straight games, including home loss to Washington State. So far, 89 percent of the cash is on the Ducks.”


Colorado State Rams at Utah State Aggies – Open: -7, Move: -10

This MWC matchup has been bumped from one key number to the next with 65 percent of action sitting on the home side Saturday. The wagering has balanced out a bit since moving to USU -10.

“Tuesday, we got a sharp play on the Aggies -7, so moved to -7.5,” says Perry. “Two out of every three dollars was still backing Utah State -9, so moved to -10 on Wednesday.”


UMass Minutemen at Central Michigan Chippewas – Open: -9.5, Move: -12.5

Sharp money isn’t behind this massive move. Instead, public money is piling up on the home favorite with 91 percent of the money on CMU. Perry believes the one-sided action has to do with health of UMass QB A.J. Doyle.

“No sharp action on this game, just a real big decision,” says Perry. “On Wednesday we moved from -9 to -10 and on Thursday moved to -12.5. Doyle is a bit dinged up. He's currently listed as probable with a shoulder injury.”


Wisconsin Badgers at Minnesota Golden Gophers – Open: +14.5, Move: +17

This Big Ten battle has had its spread move nearly three points with heavy action on the road favorite Saturday. Wisconsin has drawn 71 percent of the public action heading into the weekend. Minnesota will be without top receiver Derrick Engel.

“Monday afternoon, we got a sharp bet on Wisconsin, buying half a point to -14. Later that day, we moved Wisky to -16,” says Perry. “Heavy majority of public money on Wisconsin, so on Wednesday we moved to -17. The Badgers are an absolute covering machine this season, posting a 9-0-1 ATS record.”


Arizona State Sun Devils at UCLA Bruins – Open: +3, Move: +1.5

Wiseguys moved this slim Pac-12 spread off a field goal with money on the home underdog. Some books are still dealing UCLA around +2.5.

“Tuesday morning, we got a wiseguy play on Bruins +3, so moved to 1.5,”says Perry. “Sixty-six percent of the cash is backing UCLA.”

[Udog]

NCAAF Top 4: Teams in need of style points

College football's silly season is upon us, when teams jockeying for better position in the BCS standings take extreme measures to make that happen.

With strength of schedule such a vital part of the BCS calculations - and the one thing teams can't control - those in the mix for the national title game or some other marquee BCS matchup will often look to score as many points as possible in order to bolster their resumes. The result: Blowouts - and "over" plays - in abundance.

Here are four teams expected to bombard the scoreboard over the final two weeks of the season:

Ohio State Buckeyes (BCS rank: 3)

According to the BCS standings, the Buckeyes are - at least for the time being - the next team in line if either Alabama or Florida State drop one of their final two games. That's not happening this week - the Crimson Tide (vs. Chattanooga) and Seminoles (vs. Idaho) are expected to trample their respective opponents, making the Buckeyes' task even more daunting. They'll need one-sided victories over Indiana and Michigan, coupled with a loss by either of the top-two teams in the final week, to have any hope of playing for the national championship.

The Buckeyes are currently 34.5-point home faves with a total of 82.5.


Baylor Bears (BCS rank: 4)

College football's most prolific team has been hamstrung by what is perceived to be a weak schedule in comparison to the other title contenders. And while that may be true, Baylor shouldn't be overlooked over its final three games. This team can score like few in the history of football and if it can find a way to fill the endzone against nationally-ranked Oklahoma State, TCU and Texas, that may be enough - when combined with a Alabama or Florida State loss - to move the Bears past Ohio State and into a spot in the championship game.

The Bears are 9.5-point road faves at Okie State. The total is currently 78.


Oregon Ducks (BCS rank: 5)

The Ducks were on the fast-track to a major rankings showdown with the Seminoles before dropping a stunner to Stanford two weeks ago. That all but derailed any chance Oregon had at challenging for the national championship - but not all hope is lost. The Ducks close the season with home games against Arizona and Oregon State - tougher opponents than some of the competition, but not so tough that they'll prevent Oregon from scoring points by the boatload if it sees fit. They may be a title longshot, but expect the Ducks to ramp up the offensive pressure nonetheless.

The Ducks are 20.5-point road faves at Arizona with a total of 67.5.


Stanford Cardinal (BCS rank: 9)

A loss to USC severely damaged the Cardinal's hopes of landing a spot in one of the top three BCS bowl games. Not only does it have some work to do in order to return to that perch - it will likely need a pair of blowout wins to pass No. 6 Auburn (though No. 7 Clemson may be in trouble, with a game against Alabama to close out the season.) Stanford should have no trouble handling California this weekend, but the season finale against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish is no gimme - and unfortunately for the Cardinal, it needs to be.

Stanford is currently a 31.5-point home fave with Cal in town. The total is 56.

[Udog]

NCAAF

Saturday, November 23

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Wisconsin at Minnesota: What bettors need to know
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Wisconsin Badgers at Minnesota Golden Gophers (+16.5, 49.5)

There will be plenty on the line in the battle for Paul Bunyan's Axe on Saturday when Wisconsin invades No. 23 Minnesota in a pivotal affair between ranked Big Ten rivals. The 17th-ranked Badgers are coming off a 51-3 dismantling of Indiana, their fifth straight win since a narrow loss at No. 3 Ohio State. Wisconsin's chances of catching the Buckeyes in the Leaders Division are extremely small, but coach Gary Andersen's team hopes it can crawl into the at-large BCS picture with a solid finish.

The Gophers are on a four-game winning streak and will be well-rested from a 24-10 triumph over Penn State on Nov. 9. They still have a chance to claim the top spot in the Legends Division if leader Michigan State stumbles at Northwestern before hosting Minnesota next week. The Gophers own a slim 58-56-8 advantage in the most-played FBS rivalry, but the Badgers have won nine consecutive meetings.

TV: 3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE: Wisconsin opened -15.5 and is now -16.5. The total opened at 50.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-teens with clear skies.

ABOUT WISCONSIN (8-2, 5-1 Big Ten): To say that the Badgers ground game is clicking right now would be a woeful understatement. Three individual rushers topped 100 yards and the team amassed 554 yards on the ground - the second-highest total in team history - in the rout of the Hoosiers. The tandem of Melvin Gordon (1,306 yards) and James White (1,156) gives Wisconsin the status as the only FBS team with multiple players over the 1,000-yard mark.

ABOUT MINNESOTA (8-2, 4-2 Big Ten): The Gophers also have utilized the ground game for recent success, climbing to 20th in FBS play in rushing yards per game at 218.5 (Wisconsin is sixth at 307.9). David Cobb's emergence has been the catalyst, as the unheralded running back has recorded four straight 100-yard rushing efforts and has 405 total yards in his last two contests. Cobb and company will meet their match in a Badgers team that is seventh in FBS in rushing defense (98.8).

TRENDS:

* Over is 12-1 in the last 13 meetings.
* Underdog is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings.
* Golden Gophers are 4-0 ATS in their last four conference games.
* Under is 5-1 in Badgers last six games overall.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Gordon is averaging 8.51 yards per carry in his career.

2. Gophers QB Philip Nelson has completed 63 percent of his passes while throwing for seven touchdowns with no interceptions during the four-game winning streak.

3. Wisconsin would need to be ranked in the top 14 in the BCS standings to gain an at-large berth. It enters Saturday's play 19th.


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[Udog]

NCAAF

Saturday, November 23

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Texas A&M at LSU: What bettors need to know
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Texas A&M Aggies at LSU Tigers (-5.5, 73.5)

The road has been surprisingly kind to No. 10 Texas A&M, which looks for a school-record 11th consecutive win away from home when it travels into one of the Southeastern Conference's most hostile environments to face No. 19 Louisiana State on Saturday. LSU is 55-7 in Tiger Stadium during coach Les Miles' nine-year tenure, but the Aggies have won in their last two trips there, most recently in 1994. Texas A&M has yet to lose a road game under second-year coach Kevin Sumlin, whose personal road winning streak is up to 15 games dating to his time at Houston.

The Aggies are out of the SEC championship race, but they still have a shot at playing their way into a BCS bowl if they can survive tough games at LSU and Missouri. "We're going to have to play well to win against both these teams," Sumlin told reporters. "They say (Tiger Stadium) is where teams' dreams go to die. We're trying to keep our dreams alive." The Tigers had an open week to lick their wounds following a 38-17 loss at Alabama their last time out; they've fared well in this situation under Miles, going 22-1 following a loss with their lone consecutive defeats coming in 2008.

TV: 3:30 p.m. ET, CBS.

LINE: LSU opened -4 and is now -5.5. The total opened opened at 71 and is up to 73.5.

WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for a 70 percent chance of rain. Wind will blow toward the SE endzone at 9 mph.

ABOUT TEXAS A&M (8-2, 4-2 SEC): The Aggies' offense has been unstoppable, topping 40 points in 13 consecutive games and going over 500 total yards in nine straight. The catalyst, of course, is reigning Heisman Trophy winner Johnny Manziel, who leads the nation in completion percentage (73), ranks second in total offense (3,924) and ranks third in passer efficiency (186.86). The Aggies have needed every bit of that prolific offense thanks to a defense that allows 454.4 yards and 30.9 points per contest and has a particularly tough time stopping the run.

ABOUT LSU (7-3, 3-3 SEC): The Tigers are far more balanced than the Aggies, if not nearly as explosive. Quarterback Zach Mettenberger (2,733 passing yards, 20 TDs) is nursing a sore ankle but is expected to play and needs 93 passing yards to pass Matt Mauck for third on LSU's single-season list. The defense had its share of struggles early in the season but has rounded into form - especially against the pass - and allows just 14.6 points per game at home.

TRENDS:

* Aggies are 1-4 ATS in their last five conference games.
* Tigers are 0-5-1 ATS in their last six games following a ATS loss.
* Over is 7-0 in Aggies last seven conference games.
* Over is 8-2 in Tigers last 10 games overall.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Texas A&M has scored first in 22 of 23 games under coach Kevin Sumlin and has produced a touchdown on its opening drive in 17 of those 23 contests.

2. LSU WR/KR Odell Beckham Jr. (2,090) needs 31 all-purpose yards to break Domanick Davis' single-season school mark set in 2002 and 307 to break the SEC mark set by Kentucky's Randall Cobb in 2010.

3. The Aggies have produced points on 56 of 67 trips to the red zone and scored touchdowns on 49 of those possessions.


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[Udog]

College football betting weather report: Saturday's forecasts

Michigan State Spartans at Northwestern Wildcats (+7, 41.5)
Temperatures will be in the mid-20s with wind blowing toward the S endzone at 17 mph.

Memphis Tigers at Louisville Cardinals (-23.5, 43)
Wind will blow across the field at 11 mph.

Duke Blue Devils at Wake Forest Demon Deacons (+6, 49.5)
There is a 45 percent chance of rain in the forecast.

Cincinnati Bearcats vs. Houston Cougars (-2.5, 59)
There is a 50 percent chance of rain with wind blowing toward the S endzone at 13 mph.

Michigan Wolverines at Iowa Hawkeyes (-5.5, 45)
Wind will blow toward the S endzone at 17 mph.

Illinois Fighting Illini at Purdue Boilermakers (+7, 56.5)
Wind will blow toward the SE endzone at 16 mph.

East Carolina Pirates at North Carolina State Wolfpack (+6, 55)
There is a 48 percent chance of rain in the forecast.

Bowling Green Falcons at Eastern Michigan Eagles (+23.5, 56.5)
There is a 40 percent chance of snow with wind blowing across the field at 17 mph.

Nebraska Cornhuskers at Penn State Nittany Lions (-2, 50)
Wind will blow toward the SE endzone at 15 mph.

Idaho Vandals at Florida State Seminoles (-57, 68)
There is a 51 percent chance of rain in the forecast.

Indiana Hoosiers at Ohio State Buckeyes (-34.5, 82.5)
Wind will blow across the field at 13 mph.

Texas A&M Aggies at LSU Tigers (-5, 72)
There is a 70 percent chance of rain in the forecast with wind blowing toward the SE endzone at 9 mph.

Oregon Ducks at Arizona Wildcats (+20.5, 67.5)
There is a 93 percent chance of thunderstorms in the forecast.

Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Southern Miss Golden Eagles (+23, 55)
There is 57 percent chance of rain with wind blowing toward the S endzone at 11 mph.

Brigham Young Cougars at Notre Dame Fighting Irish (+1.5, 54.5)
Wind will blow across the field at 16 mph and there is a 46 percent chance of snow.

Colorado State Rams at Utah State Aggies (-10, 58)
Wind will blow across the field at 22 mph.

UL Monroe Warhawks at South Alabama Jaguars (-3.5, 56.5)
Wind will blow toward the S endzone at 15 mph. There is also a 42 percent chance of rain in the forecast.

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers at Texas State Bobcats (+5, 50.5)
Wind will blow toward the S endzone at14 mph. There is an 80 percent chance of rain in the forecast.

[Udog]

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 13

Saturday's games
Top 13 games

Nebraska beat Penn State 32-23/17-14 last two years; Cornhuskers won two of three road games, losing at Minnesota- they're 1-1 as a dog after losing 41-28 at home to Michigan State last week. State is 5-1 at home, losing to UCF; they're 1-4 vs spread this season in games where spread was single digits. Big Dozen home favorites are 14-9 vs spread. Penn St is 3-4 as a favorite this year. Six of last nine Penn State tilts went over.

Michigan State won its last six games (5-1 vs spread), with all six wins by 12+ points; Spartans won last four visits here, by 14-8-17-3 points. Underdogs are 8-3 vs spread in this series; road team covered last six in series. Northwestern lost its last six games, but last four were all in OT or by 3 points; they're 1-3 as underdogs. State held three of last four opponents without a TD. Big Dozen home dogs are 4-8 vs the spread.

This is first time Wake Forest has been underdog to Duke since at least 1996; Deacons are 12-1 in last 13 series games, losing 34-27 (-2) LY to Blue Devils. Duke lost seven of last eight visits here, with last five all decided by 7 or less points; dogs covered six of last nine in series. Duke is having magical season; they're 8-2, 3-0 on road; four of their last five wins are by 13+ points. Wake was outscored 72-3 in its last two games.

Houston lost low-scoring games at UCF/Louisville last two weeks, now they go home where they're 2-1, losing only 47-46 to BYU. Cougars are 2-3 in last five games, after a 5-0 start. Cincinnati won its last five games after a horrible loss at USF; Bearcats are 3-2 on road, beating Memphis, Rutgers on road in last three weeks. AAC home favorites are 5-13 vs spread. Four of last five Cincinnati games went over the total.

Tennessee won 14 of last 16 games with Vanderbilt; underdogs are 6-3 vs spread in last nine meetings. Vandy lost six of last seven visits here, losing last three by 6-1-15 points. Vols were outscored 131-36 in losing last three games; they're 3-2 at home, with average total of 63.2 in those five games. Vandy won three of its last four games, is now bowl eligible; they're 2-2 on road, winning at UMass/Florida, 3-2 vs spread as dogs.

Iowa won three of last four games with Michigan; underdogs are 7-2-2 vs spread in last 11 series games; Wolverines lost three of last four visits to Iowa, losing by 8-2-3 points; dogs arer 5-0-1 vs spread in their last six visits here. Michigan is 2-2 on road, splitting pair of OT games, winning 24-21 at UConn, getting crushed by Mich State. Hawkeyes are 5-2 as a fave this year, 2-3 SU last five games. Big Dozen home faves are 14-9.

UCLA beat Arizona State 45-43/29-28 last two years; home teams won 10 of last 13 series games, with average total in last three, 78. ASU won its last five games, scoring 42.4 ppg; they lost by 14 at Stanford in only game as a dog this year. UCLA won its last three games, scoring 39 ppg; Bruins are 4-1 as home favorites- they were held to 10-14 points in only two losses. Pac-12 home favorites are 16-11 against the spread this year.

LSU is +8 in turnovers in two wins vs Texas A&M, 24-19 (-3.5) LY on road, 41-24 (-7) in a bowl in 2010; Tigers were outgained by 94 yards in LY's game, but turnovers were difference. Aggies are 8-2; in their losses, they scored 42-41 points (Bama/Auburn). A&M won its only two away games this season, 45-33 at Arkansas, 41-38 at Ole Miss; they covered vs Bama in only game as a dog. LSU is 3-3 in last six games; they didn't play last week, after loss to Bama. SEC home favorites are 13-13 in '13.

Home teams won last four BYU-Notre Dame games; Irish outgained the Cougars 389-243 in 17-14 (-13) win LY. Irish are 4-1 at home this year, 1-4 vs spread (1-3 as HF) with three of four wins by exactly 4 points- they had last week off after loss at Pitt. BYU is 2-1 as an underdog this year, 2-2 SU on road, losing 19-16 in monsoon at Virginia, 27-17 couple weeks ago at Wisconsin- they scored 16-13-17 points in their 3 losses.

Baylor lost last eight visits to Oklahoma State, last seven by 27+ points; they're banged up for this visit, without starting OT/WR/RB, but they're also 9-0 and scored 58.5 ppg in last four games, so they've got depth to replace injured guys. Favorites covered seven of last eight series games. State lost 41-34 in Waco LY; they've won last six games, last five by 14+ points. Big X home underdogs are 7-7 against spread- this is first time this season Oklahoma State is underdog (pick 'em in win at Tex Tech).

Home side won last four Washington-Oregon State games; Huskies lost last three visits to Corvallis, by 17-27-6 points. Beavers won seven of last nine in series where underdog covered last three meetings. Huskies are 0-3 in true road games (beat Illinois in Chicago), losing by 3-29-10 points; favorites covered five of their last seven games. OSU lost three games, scoring 12-14-17 points. Pac-12 home dogs are 5-11 vs spread.

Oklahoma won eight of last ten games with Kansas State, winning last four visits to Little Apple by 10+ points; underdogs covered six of last nine series games. Sooners are 2-2 away from home, winning by 14-15 points, losing at Baylor and to Texas in Dallas. K-State covered five of last six games, scoring 39.5 during 4-game win streak; Wildcats are 3-1 vs spread as an underdog. Big X home underdogs are 7-6 against spread.

Missouri is 9-1, with only loss in OT to South Carolina, a game Mizzou led 14-0 at half; Tigers are 4-0 on road this year, scoring 46.3 ppg, with wins by 17-23-15-31 points. Ole Miss won last four games, but hard to tell lot, since last three were Troy/Idaho and SEC doormat Arkansas, not tough opponents. Mizzou is expected to get starting QB Franklin back here, but backup Mauk did pretty well. SEC home underdogs are 10-8.