NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 11 (Thursday, November 14 - Monday, November 18)

[Udog]

NFL

Monday, November 18

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Monday Night Football betting: Patriots at Panthers
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New England Patriots at Carolina Panthers (-3, 46)

Cam Newton made a splashy entrance on the NFL scene, posting spectacular numbers that did not translate into wins for the Carolina Panthers and the former No. 1 overall pick. Newton may not be putting up head-spinning stats, but the victories keep piling up for the Panthers, who will go for their sixth consecutive win when they host the New England Patriots on Monday night. The Patriots had a bye week to prepare for Carolina following a 55-31 demolition of Pittsburgh on Nov. 3.

Although the Panthers scored at least 30 points in four straight games prior to last week's 10-9 win at San Francisco, they have been dominant on the other side of the ball, ranking second in the league in points allowed at 12.8 per game. "They're one of the best defenses in the league," New England quarterback Tom Brady said. "We have to play really well. I think our execution has to be at its best." The Patriots hold a two-game lead in the AFC East while Carolina is a game behind New Orleans in the NFC South.

TV: 8:40 p.m. ET, ESPN

LINE: The Panthers opened at -1 and have been bet to -3. The total opened at 44.5 and has been bet up to 46.

WEATHER: It will be clear with temperatures in the low-50s with a 10 percent chance of rain.

ABOUT THE PATRIOTS (7-2): New England is coming off its best offensive performance of the season in the mauling of the Steelers, getting 432 yards and
four touchdown passes from Brady and 100-yard games from tight end Rob Gronkowski and wideouts Danny Amendola and rookie Aaron Dobson. Stevan Ridley complemented the aerial attack with 115 yards rushing and two TDs as the Patriots amassed 610 yards of total offense. The Patriots' defense has been rocked by season-ending injuries to Pro Bowl nose tackle Vince Wilfork and middle linebacker Jerod Mayo, but could get back star cornerback Aqib Talib, who has been sidelined the past three games by a hip injury.

ABOUT THE PANTHERS (6-3): Carolina's defense, led by tackling machine Luke Kuechly at linebacker, has surrendered 11.4 points during the winning streak
and limited San Francisco to three field goals and 151 total yards last week. Defensive ends Charles Johnson and Greg Hardy have combined for 13.5 sacks
- "We take what we want," Hardy said of a unit that ranks second overall (283.3 yards) and tied for fourth against the pass (201.3). Newton has not thrown for more than 249 yards during the five-game run, but he has seven scoring passes and three TD runs in that span while directing a ball-control offense that averages 127.8 yards on the ground.

TRENDS:

* Patriots are 5-0 in their last five Monday Night games.
* Panthers are 5-0 ATS in their last five overall.
* Over is 4-1 in Patriots last five Monday Night games.
* Over is 13-3-2 in Panthers last 18 versus a team with a winning record.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Brady is 13-4 on Monday night for the Patriots, who outlasted Carolina 32-29 in Super Bowl XXXVIII.

2. Second-year LB Kuechly is averaging a shade under 10 tackles in 25 career games.

3. New England has forced a turnover in 36 straight games, the longest active streak in the league.


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[Udog]

NFL

Monday, November 18

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Tale of the Tape: New England Patriots at Carolina Panthers
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Tom Brady and the rejuvenated New England Patriots offense face their toughest test of the season Monday night when they travel to Carolina for a date with the Panthers.

Brady looked like his old self in the Patriots' last game, throwing for 432 yards and four touchdowns as New England blasted the Pittsburgh Steelers 55-31 before enjoying a much-needed bye week. The Panthers are red-hot in their own right, riding a five-game winning streak while limiting opponents to just 57 total points over that stretch.

Here's the breakdown in our betting tale of the tape:

Offense

Brady and the Patriots scuffled through the first half of the season - dealing with injuries to Rob Gronkowski, Danny Amendola and Shane Vereen - but still managed to reel off eight victories in their first 10 games. New England comes into Week 11 sitting 20th overall in passing yardage (2,088), but has thrown just six interceptions against 13 touchdowns. The Patriots have excelled in the run game so far, ranked eighth in total yardage (1,162) while racking up 10 scores.

Third-year quarterback Cam Newton has had an uneven season to date; the Panthers rank fourth from the bottom in total passing yardage (1,762), but Newton has completed nearly 63 percent of his passes and ranks 11th in QB rating (88.3). He has thrown 13 touchdown passes but has been intercepted eight times. The run game has looked ordinary, ranked 10th overall in yardage (1,150) with 10 touchdowns but averaging just 3.9 yards per carry.

Edge: New England


Defense

The Patriots have had to deal with a litany of injuries on the defense corps - but it's difficult to tell by looking at the numbers. New England has allowed the 11th-fewest passing yards so far (2,095) while limiting opponents to 13 touchdowns and hauling in 12 interceptions. The run defense has been less effective - teams are averaging better than 128 yards per game versus the Patriots but New England has only surrendered four touchdowns on the ground.

No team in football does a better job of limiting opposition yardage than the Panthers. Carolina has clamped down on opponents' pass attacks, allowing the fourth-fewest yards through the air (1,812) while giving up just seven touchdowns and intercepting 13 passes - tied for the most in the NFL entering Week 11. The run defense has been even more impressive, allowing the second-fewest rushing yards (738) on 3.8 yards per carry while permitting only two scores.

Edge: Carolina


Special Teams

The Patriots have had an up-and-down return game so far, ranked 24th in average kickoff return (21.9 yards) and ninth in average punt return (11.5). They've been stingy when it comes to special teams defense, allowing the fifth-lowest kick-return average (20.5) while limiting opponents to 9.3 yards per punt return. Veteran kicker Steven Gostkowski has been one of the top kickers in the league yet again, converting 22-of-23 field-goal opportunities.

Carolina ranks 20th in the league in kick-return average (22.4) and 16th in punt-return average (8.7). That results in a modest special teams net loss, as the Panthers are allowing opponents to average 23.4 yards per kick return and 9.4 yards per punt return. Panthers placekicker Graham Gano has been solid to date, making 13-of-14 field-goal attempts; he hit from 53 yards out but missed a 48-yarder in last week's victory over San Francisco.

Edge: Patriots


Notable Quotable

"(The Panthers have) a problem on their hands. Shane is a playmaker out of the backfield. Whether it's on the ground or through the air, he does it well. I'm excited to have him back out there, and I know he's ready to play. He was hungry coming into this year and started out hot." - Patriots RB Stevan Ridley on teammate Vereen, who will suit up for the first time since suffering a wrist injury in Week 1

"We're relevant right now. But we can't just stop and say, 'Hey, let's pop bottles. Let's celebrate, order some hot wings and pizza. We're just halfway through the season. We just have to continue doing the things that's putting this feeling in our hearts because it's becoming a special thing to watch." - Newton


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