NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 11 (Thursday, November 14 - Monday, November 18)

[Udog]

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 11

Each week, we break down some of the underlying mismatches in the NFL, hoping to give you an inside edge when handicapping the schedule. Here are the four biggest betting mismatches for Week 11:

Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+1, 43.5)

Atlanta's decrepit running game vs. Tampa Bay's stout defensive line

The Falcons have said they'd like to see marquee free-agent acquisition Steven Jackson get more work in the coming weeks. They won't be doing Jackson any favors this week as he goes head-to-head with one of the league's most formidable run defenses. Atlanta comes into the NFC South matchup with the fewest rushing yards in the league (579) and just three touchdowns on the ground. Part of the problem is that Jackson has missed most of the season due to injury, and the Falcons have spent so much time trailing that Matt Ryan has been forced to air it out more than he or his coaches would like.

Featuring Jackson prominently in Week 11 could be a major mistake if the Buccaneers' defense continues to play at a high level. Despite having just one win past the halfway mark of the season, Tampa Bay is allowing the fifth-fewest yards on the ground in the NFL while surrendering only four rushing touchdowns. The Falcons managed a crowd-pleasing 18 rushing yards on 18 carries in their Week 7 matchup in Atlanta - and Jackson or no Jackson this time around, Sunday's result should be similar.


Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos (-9.5, 49)

Kansas City's pass rush vs. Peyton Manning's wonky ankle(s)

Rare is the week when the Broncos aren't one half of the biggest totals of the week - but then, this marks the Broncos' first of two meetings with a Chiefs defense that has humiliated opponents en route to the only unbeaten record in the league through 10 weeks. Manning injured both ankles a few weeks back, then aggravated his right ankle sprain in last week's victory over San Diego. He'll be good to go for Sunday despite being limited in practice this week, and should fare better than other Kansas City foes thanks to his quick instincts and impressive receiving corps.

And yet, Manning hasn't had to contend with such a voracious pass rush than the one employed by the Chiefs. Linebackers Justin Houston (11 sacks) and Tamba Hali (nine) have laid waste to opposing quarterbacks, guiding a Kansas City defense that is allowing a paltry 11.3 points per game while ranking first in the NFL in turnover differential at plus-15. Manning is the best a picking apart opposing secondaries, but he and his ankles could be in serious trouble against a blitz-happy Kansas City attack.


Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5, 53)

Washington's Griffin-to-Garcon connection vs. Philadelphia's battered secondary

Here is the biggest total of the week, and with good reason - both teams possess dynamic offensive attacks and anemic pass defenses. A Chip Kelly-run offense facing the Redskins' overwhelmed secondary would normally be favored by more than 3 1/2 points, but the Eagles' benefit on offense is negated by their ineptitude on the other side of that ball. And that trouble area will be put to the test Sunday against a vastly improving Washington pass game highlighted by quarterback Robert Griffin III and wideout Pierre Garcon.

RGIII has spread the ball around in his second season, but Garcon remains his favorite target. After missing most of last season with a nagging foot injury, Garcon has remained healthy in 2013 and has racked up the third most targets in the NFL as a result. He has been particularly explosive the past two weeks, racking up 14 catches for 291 yards and a touchdown. With nobody in the Philadelphia secondary capable of matching up with him either over the middle or down the sideline, Garcon should be in for another 100-yard day.


Minnesota Vikings at Seattle Seahawks (-12, 45)

Minnesota's starting quarterback vs. Seattle's home-field advantage

No team in the league enjoys more of an edge in its own stadium than the Seahawks, who have turned CenturyLink Field into a house of horrors for opposing offenses. Seattle has outscored opponents by more than 60 points in its four home wins - and while Tampa Bay nearly pulled off a major upset two weeks ago, the fact that it didn't - after leading 21-0 with 2:16 remaining in the first half - speaks to how dominant the Seahawks can be when they pull it altogether. None of that bodes well for whichever poor soul stand under center for Minnesota on Sunday.

That the starter remains unnamed may be a problem in itself - no team likes going into such a pivotal game without having a sense of who will be throwing the passes. But whether it's Matt Cassel, Josh Freeman or the injured Christian Ponder, the lucky winner will be up against a Seattle defense surrendering fewer than 16 points per game while allowing the third-fewest yards in the NFL. Add in the fact that opposing quarterbacks are averaging just over 175 yards in Seattle so far in 2013, and things aren't looking good for Minnesota's mystery QB.

[Udog]

Inside the stats: Incredible NFL non-conference trend

Overwhelming

As we alluded to here last week, our NFL Totals Tipsheet reports OVER players have been taking down the cash in non-conference games this season.

After yet another unassailable 4-0 performance last week, non-conference games (AFC vs. NFC) are now 35-11 OVER this season, including a bookie busting 11-0 the last three weeks.

This week’s potential non-conference OVERS look to be: Lions vs. Steelers, Ravens vs. Bears, Cardinals vs. Jaguars and Patriots vs. Panthers.

[Udog]

NFL
Short Sheet

Week 11

Sunday, November 17

Atlanta at Tampa Bay, 1:00 ET
Atlanta: 10-1 ATS in road games after being outgained by 200 or more total yds in their previous game
Tampa Bay: TAMPA BAY is 8-1 OVER off 2 or more consecutive overs

NY Jets at Buffalo, 1:00 ET
NY Jets: 2-10 ATS off 1 or more straight overs
Buffalo: 8-1 ATS off a road loss

Detroit at Pittsburgh, 1:00 ET
Detroit: 7-20 ATS as a road favorite of 7 points or less
Pittsburgh: 10-2 UNDER in home games

Washington at Philadelphia, 1:00 ET
Washington: 36-19 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points
Philadelphia: 0-7 ATS as a home favorite

San Diego at Miami, 4:05 ET
San Diego: 1-8 ATS in November games
Miami: 35-15 ATS against AFC West division opponents

Baltimore at Chicago, 1:00 ET
Baltimore: 17-6 ATS after gaining 200 or less total yards in their previous game
Chicago: 1-8 ATS in home games after the first month of the season

Cleveland at Cincinnati, 1:00 ET
Cleveland: 19-9 UNDER as an underdog
Cincinnati: 7-0 UNDER after outgaining opp by 100 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games

Oakland at Houston, 1:00 ET
Oakland: 61-94 ATS in the second half of the season
Houston: 37-19 ATS after 2 or more consecutive losses

Arizona at Jacksonville, 1:00 ET
Arizona: 16-32 ATS as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points
Jacksonville: 19-8 ATS off a road win against a division rival

Kansas City at Denver, 8:30 ET
Kansas City: 20-9 UNDER against conference opponents
Denver: 15-5 ATS as a favorit

Minnesota at Seattle, 4:25 ET
Minnesota: 16-4 OVER after having lost 6 or 7 out of their last 8 game
Seattle: 19-9 ATS in all games

San Francisco at New Orleans, 4:25 ET
San Francisco: 19-9 OVER in all lined games
New Orleans: 17-3 ATS as a home favorite

Green Bay at NY Giants, 4:25 ET
Green Bay: 12-3 ATS after 1 or more consecutive losses against the spread
NY Giants: 29-54 ATS in November games


Monday, November 18

New England at Carolina, 8:40 ET
New England: 58-37 ATS as a road underdog
Carolina: 7-0 UNDER in home games after 4 or more consecutive wins against the spread

[Udog]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 11

Falcons (2-7) @ Buccaneers (1-8)—Not sure how Atlanta is favored over anyone, especially on road; they’ve lost six of last seven games- only win was 31-23 (-7) over Bucs in Week 7, in flagfest (both sides 100+ PY) where Tampa scored one TD, three FGs in four trips to red zone. Falcons ran ball 18 times for 18 yards that game, are now last in NFL in rushing but are 8-2 in last ten games vs Bucs, 3-1 in last four visits here. Seven of last ten series games were decided by 6 or less points. Tampa is on short work week after holding on for first win Monday night; they’ve led 21-0/15-0 in last two games, so they have talent, but they’ve been outscored 49-17 in second half of last three games, which suggests staff is being outcoached as far as halftime adjustments go. I mean, Bucs are 1-8 and they’ve only been minus in turnovers one game, and that was -1 vs Panthers. Home teams are 4-1 vs spread in NFC South divisional games. Over is 6-2 in last eight Falcon games, 4-0-1 in last five Tampa games.

Jets (5-4) @ Bills (3-7)—Buffalo lost last three games, turning ball over seven times (-6) with different starting QB in every game, as they fade before Week 12 (latest) bye; they’re 2-3 at home, with four of five games decided by 3 or less points- none of their three wins are by more than a FG. Jets (-2.5) beat Buffalo 27-20 in Week 3, outgaining Bills 513-328, overcoming -2 turnover ratio, only game Jets have won this year with minus ratio; they’re now 7-1 in last eight series games, 3-1 in last four here (lost 28-9 at Buffalo LY). Gang Green averaged 11.4 yards/pass attempt in first meeting and sacked Manuel eight times- they’ve lost three of last four post-bye games, are 7-3 vs spread in last ten AFC East road tilts, 1-3 SU on road this year, with only win 30-28 at 2-7 Atlanta. Jets are 1-3 vs spread this season (0-4 SU) in game following a win. Bills lost last home game despite not allowing offensive TD; Chiefs’ defense scored twice against them in 23-13 win. Average total in last four series games is 53. Six of last seven Jet games, six of last nine Buffalo games went over the total.

Lions (6-3) @ Steelers (3-6)—Detroit had huge divisional win last week, now leads division after winning last two games by total of three points; Lions ran ball for 143-145 yards last two games- they’re 3-2 on road, losing at Arizona/Green Bay, but they’ve lost last eight visits to Steel City, last non-loss was tie in 1959, before I was born. Steelers are 11-2 in last 13 series games, winning last three by average score of 37-18, but these Steelers aren’t those Steelers. Pitt allowed 6-16-10 points in its three wins; they’re 0-5 allowing more than 16. Only game Detroit scored less than 21 was when Calvin Johnson was late scratch at Lambeau in Week 5 (L9-22). Lions are 4-3 as a favorite this year, Steelers 0-3 as underdog, with losses by 10-17-24 points. Pitt held four of last five opponents under 300 total yards, but gave up 610 to Patriots in fifth game. NFC North non-divisional favorites are 4-9-1 vs spread this season, 2-3 on road; AFC North underdogs are 7-5-1, 3-2 at home. Three of last four Lion games went over total; four of last five Steeler games stayed under.

Redskins (3-6) @ Eagles (5-5)—Philly/Vick ran out to 26-7 halftime lead in opener vs Redskins, who weren’t well-prepared to face Kelly’s offense in his first NFL game (Eagles won 33-27); 10 weeks later, Foles is Iggles’ QB—they’ve scored 10 TDs on 22 drives in winning last two games but have also lost last 10 home games, scoring no TDs on 25 drives in last two. Redskins blew 24-14 halftime lead in last game at Minnesota, are now 1-4 on road, with losses by 18-15-24-7 points and only win at Oakland. Washington ran ball for 187.4 yards/game over last five games- they’re 0-4 this season when scoring less than 24 points. Redskins allowed TD on defense/special teams in five of last six games; they’ve allowed 15 TDs on opponents’ last 41 drives. Teams that played on Thursday night are 12-6 vs spread in their next game, 7-2 if they lost. Team that won first meeting also won rematch in this series in nine of last 11 years. Last four Washington games went over the total; three of last four Eagle games stayed under.

Chargers (4-5) @ Dolphins (4-5)—San Diego is already making its fifth trip east of Mississippi in 11 weeks, its second in three weeks; Bolts are 2-3 on road, with three of five games decided by 3 points, or in OT. Miami lost five of last six games, is on short work week after losing to winless Bucs Monday and has major off-field distractions; their four home games have been decided by total of 11 points, with underdogs covering last three. Dolphins had 2 yards rushing on 14 carries Monday, their lowest total in 729 games in franchise history. Chargers are 0-2 since their bye, giving up 58 points (8 TDs on 21 drives) in losses by 8-6 points; they’ve lost last six visits to South Beach- last visit was famous ’81 41-38 playoff win in Fouts/Winslow era. Chargers gave up 9.1/8.2 yards/pass attempt in last two games; not sure Tannehill was weapons/ability to exploit that SD weakness—Fish averaged 4.8 ypa in Tampa Monday. AFC West non-divisional road teams are 8-3 vs spread; AFC East home teams are 10-3. Under is 3-1 in last four Charger games, 2-0-1 in last three Miami games.

Ravens (4-5) @ Bears (5-4)—Chicago has one of better backup QBs in McCown; he came in cold at end last week and led 74-yard TD drive that would’ve tied Detroit had they gotten 2-point conversion. He also played well in previous two games, vs Redskins/Packers, so he is capable leader. Bears are 3-2 at home, with wins by 3-1-6 points; they held Lions to 5.8 ypa last week, but 12 points on four trips to red zone was their undoing. Ravens snapped 3-game skid with OT win last week, after they gave up 51-yard TD pass on Hail Mary on last play of game; they’re 1-4 on road, with only win by FG at Miami- they’re 1-4 when allowing more than 17 points, 3-1 when they allow 17 or less. Bears lost two of last three at home, scoring 18-19 in losses, their two lowest scoring games of year. Home teams won three of last four series games; Ravens lost two of last three visits here, with last one in ’09. AFC North non-divisional road underdogs are 4-3-1 vs spread; NFC North home favorites are 2-6-1. Six of last eight Baltimore games stayed under the total.

Browns (4-5) @ Bengals (6-4)— Three of last five Cincy games went OT, with Bengals losing last two weeks in extra time; they’re 4-0 at home this year, 3-0 as home favorites, winning by 10-4-7-40 points. Cleveland held them to 266 yards in 17-6 upset win in Week 4 on Lake Erie, least years Bengals gained in game this year, but Browns haven’t swept season series since ’02, losing last four visits here, by 9-2-3-7 points. In fact, Bengals won second meeting of year in this series eight of last nine years. Favorites are 10-2 vs spread in Browns’ last 12 post-bye games; Cleveland is 2-6 as post-bye underdog, losing three of last four (losses by 16-7-3). Browns are 4-1 when anyone but Weeden starts at QB but they’re 1-3 on road (2-2 as road dogs) losing away games by 8-18-6 points- they averaged 7.6/6.1 yards/pass attempt in Campbell’s first two starts, their two best games in that category this year. NFL-wide, divisional home favorites are 18-9 vs spread this season. Four of last five Cleveland games went over the total.

Raiders (3-6) @ Texans (2-7)—Houston is 7-point favorite despite not winning game since Sept 15; Coach Kubiak returns to sidelines this week, 14 days after his mini-stroke at halftime when Houston led Colts 21-3 in what was their best half of season. Kubiak is play-caller, so game management will be better; it was awful in his absence- they punted on 4th/10 from own 39 last week with 5:00 to go, down 27-17. Texans turned ball over only twice in Keenum’s three starts (+3), compared to 15 (-12) in Schaub’s six starts; Keenum seems to find Andre Johnson more often, which is a good thing. Oakland lost five of last seven games; they’re 0-4 on road, 2-2 as road dogs, losing away games by 4-16-17-4 points. Texans won five of seven series games; Raiders won last visit here, in what I think was first game after Oakland icon Al Davis passed away. AFC West non-divisional underdogs are 7-2 vs spread, 4-1 on road; AFC South home favorites are 1-4. Six of nine Houston games went over the total.

Packers (5-4) @ Giants (3-6)—McCarthy thought enough of #3 QB Tolzien to name him starter until Rodgers returns; he becomes third different starting QB in Pack’s last three games- they signed former backup Flynn (cut by Raiders/Bills this year) to back him up. Green Bay lost last two games, scoring one TD, four FGs on seven trips to red zone. Defense has only three takeaways in last six games (-2); they’ve only been plus in turnovers one game this year (+1 vs Browns in Week 7). Giants won last three games after 0-6 start; they allowed 27+ points in all six losses; they’ve allowed 7-7-20 points in last three games, but allowed TD on defense/special teams in four straight games. Home side lost seven of last nine series games; Packers won four of last five visits here, losing 38-10 LY. Two TDs Raiders scored last week were by defense and on a 5-yard drive after Giants fumbled opening kickoff. NFC East non-divisional home favorites are 4-5 vs spread; NFC North road dogs are 2-3. Five of last six Packer games stayed under the total.

Cardinals (5-4) @ Jaguars (1-8)—First road game in five weeks is must-win game for Arizona if they’re legit playoff contenders in NFC; they’re 1-3 on road, with only win 13-10 at 1-8 Tampa Bay in Week 4- three of their five wins are by 4 or less points. Jax got four takeaways (+2) in first win last week in Nashville; they had total of eight (-7) in first eight games. Jaguars were outscored 131-21 (33-5 average) in losing first four home games, scoring one TD on 41 drives- they lost backup LB/special teamer Reynolds to PED suspension, second week in row they’ve had player suspended. Cardinals have 18 3/outs on 38 drives in their last three road games- on their first drive in last six games, Cardinals gained total of 83 yards on 26 plays; a fast start against a bad team would be big here. NFC West non-divisional favorites are 9-5-1 vs spread, 4-1 on road; AFC South underdogs are 7-8-1, 2-5 at home. Road team won two of three series meetings; Arizona split its two visits here. Four of last five Jaguar games, three of last four Redbird tilts went over the total.

Chiefs (9-0) @ Broncos (8-1)—Reid had been 13-0 in post-bye games until he lost LY, when everything fell apart in Philly; unbeaten Chiefs won 26-16 (+3) at Philly in Reid’s return in Week 3, only time they’ve been underdog this year. After facing five QBs in row who were backups in training camp, Manning’s offense, averaging 41.2 ppg, awaits here. Denver has 26 TDs on 56 drives at home this year, but Manning tweaked ankle at end of Charger game last week, so he’s not 100%, not that he was ever mobile. No one has scored more than 17 points on Chiefs this year; can their edge rushers get to an immobile QB? Broncos are 4-1 as home favorites this year; only non-cover was when they laid 27 to Jaguars, won by 16. KC scored total of 32 points in last five series games; they’ve split last four visits here, after losing previous eight visits to Denver. Divisional home favorites of 5+ points are 10-6 vs spread so far this season. Eight of nine Denver games went over total; seven of nine Chief games stayed under.

Vikings (2-7) @ Seahawks (9-1)—Seattle gets former Viking WR Harvin back just in time for Minnesota’s visit. Vikings snapped 4-game skid with comeback win over Redskins 10 days ago; QB Ponder got hurt late (left shoulder) but is expected to go here. Minnesota is 2-2 as a true road underdog, losing away games by 10-1-16-4 points- they won on neutral field in London. Last game before late bye for Seattle, which is 2-2 as home favorite, winning all four home games by 21-28-7-3 points; they’ve won five games in row overall- only two of their last six wins are by more than seven points. Seahawks converted 17-32 on 3rd down in last two games, running ball for 409 yards, but falling behind 21-0 to Bucs in last home game is alarming. In ten games, Seattle has lost field position only once, in Week 7 at Arizona; they’ve also been minus in turnovers only once all year, and won that game too. NFC West non-divisional favorites are 9-5-1 vs spread, 5-4-1 at home; NFC North road underdogs are 2-3. Eight of nine Minnesota games went over the total.

49ers (6-3) @ Saints (7-2)—New Orleans won/covered all five home games this year, winning in Superdome by 6-24-21-18-32 points, while scoring 35.2 ppg. Only once have they been below 8.1 yards/pass attempt at home- they haven’t been above 7.6 in four road games. 49ers beat Saints 36-31/31-21 last two years, after New Orleans won previous six meetings; Niners scored 3-9-7 points in their three losses, completing 50% or less of passes in all three games. Much like Seattle, 49ers are a bully team, with last five wins all by 12+ points; only two of their games (1-1) this year have been decided by less than 12 points. Kaepernick was 11-22/46 yards passing last week; ain’t beating a good team throwing like that. Saints had seven TDs last week; only one was on drive of less than 75 yards, as they set NFL record with 40 first downs (only 12 of their 80 plays came on third down, and they converted 9-12 into first downs). NFC South non-divisional favorites are 6-2 vs spread this season; NFC West underdogs are 6-5, 4-4 on road. Over is 4-0 in last four Saint games, 3-1 in 49ers’ last four.

Patriots (7-2) @ Panthers (6-3)—Carolina went to Candlestick last week and outslugged 49ers 10-9, holding SF to 44 yards passing; they’ve won/covered last five games, now get national TV exposure and shot at team used to such exposure. Panthers allowed only one first half TD all season, and outscored last three opponents 40-7 in second half- they’ve won last three home games by combined score of 92-15, after losing home opener 12-7 to Seattle. Curious to see young Patriot receivers work against this impressive defense; NE lost its last two road games, gaining less than 300 yards in both games. Pats ran ball for 349 yards in last two games; they’ve won nine of last ten post-bye games. Carolina is 20-43 on third down in last three games, leading to field position advantages of 16-15-5 yards. NE won three of five series games, 32-29 win in Super Bowl 28 being most famous one- teams split two meetings here. Four of last five Carolina games, three of last four Patriot games went over the total.

[Udog]

NFL

SUnday, November 17

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Sunday's NFL Week 11 betting cheat sheet: Early action
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New York Jets at Buffalo Bills (+1, 41)

Geno Smith is having an up and down rookie season but played one of his best games against Buffalo in Week 3, when he passed for a season-high 331 yards to go along with two touchdowns in a 27-20 triumph. New York is not asking much of Smith, who is enjoying the luxury of a rushing offense that produces an average of 129 yards, and he attempted a season-low 19 passes in the win over the Saints.

Buffalo is averaging 13.3 points during its three-game slide and just barely scratched out one touchdown in a 23-10 loss at Pittsburgh last week when Manuel found Chris Cragg with three seconds left. Manuel could have less help this week with wide receivers Stevie Johnson (groin) and Robert Woods (ankle) each sitting out Wednesday’s practice.

LINE: Opened as a pick and has been bet up to Buffalo +1. The total is steady at 41.
WEATHER: There is a 64 percent chance of rain and wind blowing across the field from the south at 16 mph.
POWER RANKINGS: New York (+1.5) - Buffalo (+5.0) + home field (-3.0) = Jets -0.5
TRENDS:

* Jets are 1-4 ATS in their last five games vs. teams with winning records.
* Bills are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games.
* Under is 4-1-1 in the last six meetings in Buffalo.


Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1, 43.5)

Atlanta has been plagued by turnovers - it's minus-8 in that department - as well as injuries to several standouts on both sides of the ball. The hits continue this week with tight end Tony Gonzalez (toe) missing practice Wednesday and receiver Roddy White (shoulder) and running back Steven Jackson (toe) limited. The Falcons should get linebacker Sean Weatherspoon back this week after missing seven games with a foot injury.

Tampa Bay's offense ranks 31st among 32 teams in total yards and scoring, and the unit took another hit when running back Mike James suffered a season-ending broken ankle. James had proven a viable plan B after losing Doug Martin for the season, and now the workload falls to Brian Leonard and Bobby Rainey to continue the improved ground game that has powered much-improved efforts the past two weeks.

LINE: Atlanta has jumped from a pick to +1. The total is up one from a 42.5-point opener.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-80s with a 22 percent chance of showers.
POWER RANKINGS: Atlanta (+4.5) - Tampa Bay (+6.0) + home field (-3.0) = Buccaneers -1.5
TRENDS:

* Falcons are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games after scoring fewer than 15 points in their previous contest.
* Buccaneers are 11-28-1 ATS in their last 40 home games.
* Favorite is 4-1-1 ATS in the last six meetings.


Detroit Lions at Pittsburgh Steelers (+1, 47)

Detroit wide receiver Calvin Johnson increased his career touchdown reception total to 63, overtaking Herman Moore for the top spot on the franchise list. Johnson and quarterback Matthew Stafford have formed a dangerous combination, with the former leading the league in average receiving yards (113.0) and tied for second in TD catches (nine) and the latter fourth in both yards (2,836) and scoring passes (19).

Pittsburgh will need its defense to continue its strong play to keep the Lions from notching their third straight win. The Steelers have allowed an average of 201.3 passing yards, the fourth-best mark in the NFL, and held Buffalo to 227 total yards last week. Pittsburgh's running game has improved of late, as the team has eclipsed the 100-yard plateau in three of the last four games.

LINE: Detroit has held steady as a 1-point fave, with the total currently 47.
WEATHER: There is a 63 percent chance of rain with wind blowing toward the N endzone at 14 mph.
POWER RANKINGS: Detroit (-3.0) + Pittsburgh (+3.5) - home field (-3.0) = Lions -3.5
TRENDS:

* Lions are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six road games vs. teams with losing home records.
* Steelers are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 games.
* Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings.


Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5, 53)

One year after producing two of the NFL’s top offensive rookies in Griffin and running back Alfred Morris, the Redskins have struck gold again with tight end Jordan Reed, who leads all NFL rookies with 44 catches. Morris is having a fine sophomore campaign, as well, with 448 yards and two touchdowns in his last four games. Washington’s punt return unit ranks 30th in the NFL in yards per return (6.1).

Philadelphia quarterback Nick Foles has 10 touchdown passes over the last two games, five of which have gone to Riley Cooper, who has eight catches for 241 yards during that stretch. While the Eagles’ offense continues to generate the headlines, their defense has allowed 21 points or less in six straight games. Philadelphia is tied with Dallas for first place in the NFC East.

LINE: The Eagles opened as low as -3 but have been bet up to -4.5. The total is up from 51 to 53.
WEATHER: There's a 23 percent chance of showers with temperatures in the mid-60s.
POWER RANKINGS: Washington (+3.5) + Philadelphia (-1.0) + home field (-3.0) = Eagles -7.5
TRENDS:

* Redskins are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games.
* Eagles are 6-15-1 ATS in their last 22 games on grass.
* Road team is 7-2 ATS in the last nine meetings.


Baltimore Ravens at Chicago Bears (-2.5, 44)

Joe Flacco threw a pair of touchdown passes as Baltimore pulled out a critical 20-17 overtime win last week, but the defending Super Bowl champs haven't won two straight games since mid-September. The schedule is favorable, however, as Baltimore plays three straight games at home after its date with Chicago against teams with a combined 10-17 record. Baltimore trails Cincinnati by 1 1/2 games in the division and is also behind in the wild-card race.

Bears QB Jay Cutler is out a high ankle sprain and defensive back Charles Tillman is also out with a torn triceps, adding to a long list of sidelined starters. Backup QB Josh McCown has been sharp in his three appearances on the season, completing 60 percent of his passes with four touchdowns and no interceptions. Brandon Marshall continues to be the top target with 14 receptions for 246 yards and three TDs in the last two games.

LINE: Chicago opened -3 but the line has been bet down to -2.5. The total has dropped 2.5 points to 44.
WEATHER: There is a 74 percent chance of rain and wind blowing N across the length of the field at 20 mph.
POWER RANKINGS: Baltimore (+3.0) + Chicago (-2.5) + home field (-3.0) = Bears -8.5
TRENDS:

* Ravens are 15-5-2 ATS in their last 22 games vs. teams with winning records.
* Bears are 1-9-1 ATS in their last 11 home games.
* Under is 4-0 in the last four meetings.


Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals (-6, 42)

Coming out of its bye week, Cleveland will match its win total from last season with one more victory. What makes that even more impressive is that the Browns are on their third starting quarterback, Jason Campbell, who has recorded the team’s highest passer ratings of the season in his first two starts. Cleveland can sweep the season series for the first time since 2002 with a win.

Quarterback Andy Dalton has come under fire after throwing a combined six interceptions in the two overtime losses. Despite the setbacks, Cincinnati is still in control of its fate with four of its final six games at home, where it is undefeated this season. Bengals wide receiver A.J. Green, who had seven catches for 51 yards in the first meeting, has five consecutive 100-yard receiving games.

LINE: Cincinnati has held as a 6-point fave, with the total currently 42.
WEATHER: There is a 78 percent chance of thunderstorms with wind blowing across the field at 14 mph.
POWER RANKINGS: Cleveland (+3.0) + Cincinnati (-3.0) + home field (-3.0) = Bengals -9
TRENDS:

* Browns are 5-1 ATS in their last six November games.
* Bengals are 3-9-2 ATS in their last 14 games vs. the AFC North.
* Underdog is 12-3-1 ATS in the last 16 meetings.


Oakland Raiders at Houston Texans (-9.5, 41.5)

Quarterback Terrelle Pryor's inconsistent campaign continued in the loss to the Giants as he struggled to an 11-for-26 performance with 122 yards and an interception. Pryor, who is listed as questionable with a knee ailment and did not practice Wednesday, has thrown five interceptions with no touchdowns in the last three weeks. Rookie Matt McGloin, who came off the bench in a loss to Philadelphia on Nov. 3, took the first-team snaps in practice.

As its season has fallen on hard times, Houston's roster continues to take a form vastly different than the one many thought could contend in the AFC. Safety Ed Reed, a nine-time Pro Bowler who was expected to be one of the leaders of a standout defense, was released Tuesday after calling out the coaching in the loss to the Cardinals, and star running back Arian Foster was placed on season-ending injured reserve due to nagging back issues.

LINE: The Texans opened -7 and are now -9.5. The total has dropped from 43 to 41.5.
WEATHER: N/A
POWER RANKINGS: Oakland (+6.0) - Houston (+4.0) + home field (-3.0) = Texans -5
TRENDS:

* Raiders are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games vs. the AFC.
* Texans are 0-6 ATS in their last six games following an ATS win.
* Over is 7-3 in Houston's last 10 games.


Arizona Cardinals at Jacksonville Jaguars (+9.5, 41)

Arizona is ranked just 24th in rushing (93.6) and that has meant an over-reliance on quarterback Carson Palmer, who has thrown at least one interception in every game and has 15 overall. Rookie Andre Ellington has shown the ability to juice up the sagging running game with 209 yards over the last two games and an impressive 7.2-yard average. Cornerback Patrick Peterson has a team-leading three interceptions.

Jacksonville’s defense allows 388.9 yards per game and could be without leading tackler Paul Posluszny (88 stops) after the standout middle linebacker suffered a concussion against Tennessee. Making matters worse is that backup LaRoy Reynolds was suspended four games for violating the NFL’s policy on performance-enhancing drugs, which forces the Jaguars to start roster-filler Russell Allen, who last played in the middle in 2009.

LINE: The Jags opened as a 6-point dog but are now +9.5.. The total is up a half-point to 41.
WEATHER: Wind will be blowing diagonally out of the southeast at 10 mph.
POWER RANKINGS: Arizona (+1.0) - Jacksonville (+8.0) + home field (-3.0) = Cardinals -4
TRENDS:

* Cardinals are 5-1 ATS in their last six games vs. teams with losing records.
* Jaguars are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games.
* Under is 7-1 in Jacksonville's last eight home games.


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[Udog]

NFL

Sunday, November 17

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Sunday's NFL Week 11 betting cheat sheet: Late action
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San Diego Chargers at Miami Dolphins (+1, 45.5)

San Diego is in the midst of stretch of four out of five on the road and dropped the lone home game last week to the Denver Broncos 28-20. The Chargers fell behind early in that one and never recovered, allowing Peyton Manning to pass for 330 yards and four touchdowns in a scene that is becoming common for a pass defense that ranks near the bottom of the league.

Miami is down two offensive linemen with Jonathan Martin and alleged tormentor Richie Incognito away from the team and that loss was felt in the running game on Monday, when the Dolphins managed a total of two yards on 14 carries. Quarterback Ryan Tannehill was sacked twice on the team’s final possession. The second-year signal caller has taken 37 sacks this season - the most in the NFL.

LINE: Miami is a 1-point dog with the total set at 45.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-80s with wind blowing across the length of the field at 11 mph.
POWER RANKINGS: San Diego (0) + Miami (+4.0) - home field (-3.0) = Chargers -1
TRENDS:

* Chargers are 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight road games.
* Dolphins are 6-2 ATS in their last eight home games.
* Under is 9-0 in the last nine meetings.


Minnesota Vikings at Seattle Seahawks (-12, 45)

Reigning NFL MVP Adrian Peterson leads the league with nine rushing touchdowns and his 87.3 yards per game on the ground rank third. He rushed for 182 yards and two TDs on 17 carries in a 30-20 loss at Seattle last November. Wide receiver Jerome Simpson, who leads the team with 491 receiving yards, is likely to play despite an arrest on suspicion of drunken driving last weekend.

Seattle, which increased its NFC West lead to 2 1/2 games with a rout at Atlanta last week, is going for its sixth win in a row and its 13th consecutive victory at home. The Seahawks are one of the NFL’s most balanced teams, ranking in the top six in both total defense (289 yards allowed per game) and scoring (26.5 points). Adding returning receiver Percy Harvin to the mix should make the offense even more dangerous.

LINE: Seattle opened as a 13.5-point fave but the line has been bet down to -12. The total is 45.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-40s with a 42 percent chance of showers.
POWER RANKINGS: Minnesota (+5.5) + Seattle (-7.0) + home field (-3.0) = Seattle -15.5
TRENDS:

* Vikings are 7-16 ATS in their last 23 games following a SU win.
* Seahawks are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games vs. NFC opponents.
* Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings in Seattle.


San Francisco 49ers at New Orleans Saints (-3.5, 48)

San Francisco's offense has played at one extreme or the other, topping 30 points in all six wins and being held to single digits in all three losses. Quarterback Colin Kaepernick's receiving corps is getting healthier, as Mario Manningham played last week and Michael Crabtree (Achilles) has returned to practice and is eligible to come off the reserve list.

New Orleans' high-powered offense keeps rolling along despite nagging injuries to star tight end Jimmy Graham. Rookie receiver Kenny Stills has become a key part of the offense with four TD receptions in the past four games. One cause for concern is the defense's recent drop-off in takeaways - after forcing 15 turnovers in the first seven games, the Saints haven't forced any in the past two.

LINE: The Saints opened -3 and are now -3.5, with the total up a half-point to 48.
WEATHER: N/A
POWER RANKINGS: San Francisco (-5.5) + New Orleans (-6.0) + home field (-3.0) = Saints -3.5
TRENDS:

* 49ers are 7-1 ATS in their last eight road games vs. teams with winning home records.
* Saints are 21-5 ATS in their last 26 home games.
* Over is 4-0-1 in the last five meetings.


Green Bay Packers at New York Giants (-4, 42)

Green Bay was atop its division following a four-game winning streak but quarterback Aaron Rodgers hurt his collarbone in a Monday night showdown against Chicago - the latest and most damaging in a spate of injuries that has ravaged the roster. Backup Seneca Wallace went down in the first quarter of last week's 27-13 home loss to Philadelphia, prompting the NFL debut of Scott Tolzien, who threw for 280 yards with a touchdown and two interceptions.

The biggest reasons for New York's turnaround have been cutting down on turnovers and a revival of a defense that surrendered an average of more than 34 points through the first six games but has permitted a total of 34 in the last three wins. Quarterback Eli Manning was a turnover machine during the season-opening skid, tossing 15 of his 16 interceptions and losing four fumbles, but he has been picked off only once during the current winning streak.

LINE: New York opened as high as -8 but has settled in at -4. The total is currently 42..
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-60s with overcast skies.
POWER RANKINGS: Green Bay (+4.5) - New York (+1.0) + home field (-3.0) = Giants -6.5
TRENDS:

* Packers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games vs. teams with losing records.
* Giants are 3-13 ATS in their last 16 games in Week 11.
* Over is 5-1 in the last six meetings.


Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos (-7.5, 49)

Despite its perfect record, Kansas City has been the target of criticism for a perceived soft schedule - none of its opponents currently have a winning record - and the fact that four of the last five wins came against teams playing a backup at quarterback. The Chiefs have had a string of close calls but their defense has yet to allow more than 17 points while scoring six defensive touchdowns and ranking sixth in passing yards allowed at 208.3 per game.

Peyton Manning tops the league in passing yards (3,249), touchdowns (33) and passer rating (121.0) while tossing only six interceptions in leading Denver's high-powered offense to a league-high 41.2 points per game. The Broncos were held under 30 points for the first time in last week's 28-20 win at San Diego as Manning threw for 330 yards and four TDs before aggravating a right ankle injury in the waning minutes.

LINE: Denver is currently a 7.5-point fave with the total dipping from 51 to 49.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-30s.
POWER RANKINGS: Kansas City (-4.5) + Denver (-8.0) + home field (-3.0) = Broncos -6.5
TRENDS:

* Chiefs are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games vs. the NFC West.
* Broncos are 7-2 ATS in their last nine November games.
* Over is 12-3-1 in Denver's last 16 games following an ATS win.


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[Udog]

NFL

Sunday, November 17

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Redskins at Eagles: What bettors need to know
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Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5, 53)

Nick Foles is quietly having an historic season for the Philadelphia Eagles, who are starting to sneak up on the NFC playoff race. Foles and the Eagles look to make some more noise Sunday when they host the Washington Redskins in a Week 1 rematch. Foles was taken 86 spots after Washington’s Robert Griffin III in last year’s draft, but it’s the Philadelphia quarterback who enters this matchup with 16 touchdowns and no interceptions on the season.

Griffin, meanwhile, had nine touchdowns and nine interceptions on the year before throwing three TDs and no picks in last week’s 34-27 loss to Minnesota. Griffin’s season high for passing yards remains his 329-yard effort against the Eagles in the opener, but Washington lost that game 33-27 as its defense allowed 443 total yards, including 184 rushing yards by LeSean McCoy. Fueled by that victory, Philadelphia is 5-1 on the road this season but 0-4 at home – part of a 10-game home losing streak that dates back to September 2012 – although Eagles coach Chip Kelly said, “I do think we have an advantage. We love playing at home. Our fans are outstanding. They deserve it.”

TV: 1 p.m. ET, Fox.

LINE: The Eagles opened -3.5 and are now -4.5. The total opened 52.5 and is up to 53.

WEATHER: There is a 23 percent chance of rain with wind blowing toward the N endzone at 6 mph.

ABOUT THE REDSKINS (3-6): One year after producing two of the NFL’s top offensive rookies in Griffin and running back Alfred Morris, the Redskins have struck gold again with tight end Jordan Reed, who leads all NFL rookies with 44 catches. Morris is having a fine sophomore campaign, as well, with 448 yards and two touchdowns in his last four games. Washington’s punt return unit, which ranks 30th in the NFL in yards per return (6.1), will likely give practice squad call-up Nick Williams, a rookie out of Connecticut, a chance to win the job on Sunday.

ABOUT THE EAGLES (5-5): Foles has 10 touchdown passes over the last two games, five of which have gone to Riley Cooper, who has eight catches for 241 yards during that stretch. While the Eagles’ offense continues to generate the headlines, their defense has allowed 21 points or less in six straight games. Philadelphia is tied with Dallas for first place in the NFC East, but the team could be without offensive tackle Jason Peters, linebacker Mychal Kendricks and safety Earl Wolff, all of whom were injured in last week’s 27-13 win at Green Bay.

TRENDS:

* Redskins are 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings in Philadelphia.
* Redskins are 1-6 ATS in their last seven vs. NFC.
* Eagles are 5-20-1 ATS in their last 26 home games.
* Under is 6-0-1 in Eagles last seven games in Week 11.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Redskins WR Pierre Garcon has at least five catches in every game this season.

2. Sunday will mark the 250th consecutive game for Washington LB London Fletcher.

3. McCoy had rushed for less than 60 yards in four of his previous five games before scampering for 155 against the Packers.


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[Udog]

NFL

Sunday, November 17

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Chiefs at Broncos: What bettors need to know
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Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos (-9.5, 49)

Peyton Manning always seems to be the center of attention and that will again be the case - albeit for a different reason - when the Denver Broncos host the undefeated Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday night in a showdown for first place in the AFC West. Manning's health, and his ailing right ankle in particular, is the No. 1 storyline as the Broncos attempt to hand the Chiefs their first loss in the first of two meetings between the clubs in the next three games.

Manning and interim coach Jack Del Rio insist he will be ready to play despite not practicing Wednesday but his mobility is a huge concern against a defense that leads the league with 36 sacks and has surrendered an NFL-low 12.3 points per game. "We're definitely on high alert in wanting to protect our quarterback," said Del Rio, who is serving as head coach while John Fox recovers from heart valve surgery. The upstart Chiefs are coming off a bye with the knowledge that coach Andy Reid is 13-1 following a week off.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC.

LINE: Denver opened -9.5. The total is down to 49 from the opening 51.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-30s with partly cloudy skies.

ABOUT THE CHIEFS (9-0): Despite its perfect record, Kansas City has been the target of criticism for a perceived soft schedule - none of its opponents currently have a winning record - and the fact that four of the last five wins came against teams playing a backup at quarterback. The Chiefs have had a string of close calls but their defense has yet to allow more than 17 points while scoring six defensive touchdowns and ranking sixth in passing yards allowed at 208.3 per game. Wideout Dwayne Bowe will start despite an arrest earlier in the week for an offense that relies on the efficiency of quarterback Alex Smith and the running of Jamaal Charles, who has 725 yards rushing and 47 receptions.

ABOUT THE BRONCOS (8-1): Manning tops the league in passing yards (3,249), touchdowns (33) and passer rating (121.0) while tossing only six interceptions in leading Denver's high-powered offense to a league-high 41.2 points per game. The Broncos were held under 30 points for the first time in last week's 28-20 win at San Diego as Manning threw for 330 yards and four TDs before aggravating a right ankle injury in the waning minutes. Wideouts Demaryius Thomas, Wes Welker and tight end Julius Thomas each have nine touchdown receptions while running back Knowshon Moreno has been a dual threat with eight rushing scores and 37 catches, including a season-high eight last week.

TRENDS:

* Under is 4-0-1 in the last five meetings.
* Underdog is 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings.
* Chiefs are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games.
* Over is 17-5-1 in Broncos last 23 vs. AFC.

OVERTIME:

1. Manning is tied with New England's Tom Brady (2007) for the most TD passes (33) through the first nine games of a season.

2. The Chiefs, seeking the first 10-0 start in franchise history, are the first NFL team to open 9-0 after posting the worst record the previous season.

3. Manning is 8-0 against the AFC West since joining Denver and 9-1 in his career versus the Chiefs.


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[Udog]

NFL

Sunday, November 17

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Tale of the Tape: Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos
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There's no mistaking the marquee matchup of the week as the unbeaten Kansas City Chiefs face their toughest test to date - a showdown with Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos.

Kansas City is the lone remaining undefeated team thanks to a relentless defense and formidable ground game. Manning has the Broncos right behind the Chiefs in the AFC West as he continues his record-breaking pace into the later stages of the season.

Here's the breakdown in our betting tale of the tape:

Offense

Kansas City's amazing start is made even more incredible by the fact that the Chiefs rank a pedestrian 24th in the NFL in total yards per game (317.3). Alex Smith has proven to be a capable quarterback most games, but lacks big-play ability and leads a Kansas City attack that has compiled the fifth-fewest passing yards in the league. The running game has been more effective, ranked 12th overall at 119 yards per game while racking up seven touchdowns.

The Chiefs haven't seen an offense as explosive as the one led by Manning. The Broncos lead the NFL with 3,181 passing yards - a whopping 257 more than the next closest team - and also tops the league in passing touchdowns (33) and total QB rating (120.6) while sitting second in fewest sacks against (13). The success of the passing game has opened things up on the ground, where Denver has recorded 11 scores despite averaging just 105.2 yards per game.

Edge: Denver


Defense

While the Denver offense presents a unique challenge for Kansas City, the Chiefs' defense should have the same impact on the Broncos. Kansas City has surrendered the sixth-fewest passing yards in the NFL (1,875) while limiting the opposition to nine touchdowns and snagging 12 interceptions. The Chiefs have compiled a league-best 36 sacks - 20 from Justin Houston and Tamba Hali - and have given up just two rushing touchdowns through the first 10 games.

If the Broncos struggle en route to a berth in the Super Bowl, it will probably be due to an inconsistent and underperforming defense. Denver has surrendered the third-most passing yards to date, while allowing 16 touchdowns against 13 interceptions. The Broncos have been successful at getting to the quarterback - piling up 26 sacks through 10 games - but have given up nine rushing touchdowns despite limiting foes to just 87 yards per game on the ground.

Edge: Kansas City


Special Teams

The Chiefs have thrived in the return game, averaging 25.8 yards per kickoff return attempt and 10.5 yards per punt return. Kansas City has been strong defending returns, as well, allowing 24.9 yards per kick return and just 7.3 yards per punt return. Placekicker Ryan Succop has been mostly solid - converting 18-of-21 field goal attempts - but has connected just once in four tries from 50 yards or longer.

It isn't enough for the Broncos to excel in the passing and running games - they've also been productive on special teams, joining Minnesota as the only clubs with both a kick return and a punt return touchdown. Denver is surrendering 24.6 yards per kickoff return and 10.9 yards per punt return, ranking in the lower half of the league in both categories. Kicker Matt Prater hasn't been busy but he has been effective, making all 12 of his field-goal attempts.

Edge: Denver


Notable Quotable

"It's frustrating. You work hard, you work hard, sometimes you win the first battle, and the second one, but there's not much to do about it because the ball is out. We know he doesn't hold the ball. If he buys time, it's rare you don't see the pass completed. For us to put pressure on the quarterback is huge." - Chiefs LB Hali on Manning

"It's great whether you're a player, assistant strength coach, head coach or fan. It's exciting to be involved in games that take on extra meaning. It's one game, and that's how we're going to approach it, but clearly there will be more excitement in the stands, and the juices will be flowing a little more in a game like this." - Broncos interim head coach Jack Del Rio


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[Udog]

Where the action is: Sunday's NFL line moves

Week 11 of the NFL schedule features a few matchups where injuries are playing a key part in line moves. We talk to oddsmakers about the action coming in on some of Sunday's matchups and where lines could close come kickoff:

New York Jets at Buffalo Bills - Open: -1, Move: +1

Remember when the Jets were supposed to be horrible? Well, a win over division rivals Buffalo and they could be in the thick of the playoff hunt. The Bills opened as a small home fave, but injuries to some key players has bettors treading lightly.

"The opener saw the Bills as a small fave, but the injury report has been much kinder to the Jets with numerous upgrades to probable on both sides of the ball," says Aron Black of Bet365. "The 'expected to miss' status of Buffalo WR’s Stevie Johnson and Robert Woods, moving the line to the Jets as a small fave. Action is pretty split ATS, but the bulk of SU action is on the Jets as slight dog."


Arizona Cardinals at Jacksonville Jaguars - Open: +6, Move: +9

The Jags may have finally won a game SU and covered their second spread of the season last week at Tennessee, but bettors don't see a trend beginning in either department. The Cards opened as 6-point road faves and sharps and public alike have gotten behind the NFC West squad that has won back-to-back games SU.

"Monday we got sharp play on Cards -6 so moved to -6.5 and Wednesday got another sharp play on Arizona so moved to -7," says Mike Perry, an oddsmaker with Sportsbook.ag. "Heavy majority of action has been on the Cards all week, which caused us on Thursday to move to current number of -9. Sixty-six percent of the cash is backing Arizona."


Oakland Raiders at Houston Texans - Open: -7, Move: -9

Lines for this AFC matchup opened anywhere from -6.5 to -7.5 depending on where you shop. The Raiders are expected to start Matthew McGloin at QB as Terrelle Pryor is doubtful.

"The line move to -9 is down to QB Pryor being out, and the action has gone along with Houston from the start and with moves," Black says. "Oakland action has come back at +9, however the game is one of the quieter action games of the weekend given all the uncertainty due to injuries."


San Diego Chargers at Miami Dolphins - Open: +1, Move: +2.5
.
The Chargers come into this one cold, having lost two games in a row both SU and ATS. Despite that, San Diego opened as 1-point road faves at most outlets and with sharps getting in on the action early, oddsmakers don't see the line moving from here on out.

"On Tuesday we got sharp play on Bolts -1, so we moved to the current number of -2.5," Perry says. "Expect us to stay on -2.5 until kickoff. Eighty percent of money is on San Diego."

[Udog]

NFL betting: This week's Top 4 key injuries

Fans in Seattle will finally get to see wide receiver Percy Harvin in action this week, but not every team will be so fortunate.

The Atlanta Falcons could be without their top pass-catching option while the Oakland Raiders may be forced to start an undrafted quarterback. Meanwhile, the New England Patriots welcome back one of their most versatile offensive options for a pivotal Monday night tilt.

Here are four of the most notable Week 11 injuries:

Terrelle Pryor, QB, Oakland Raiders (questionable, knee)

Pryor practiced with the Raiders this week but coach Dennis Allen told reporters the second-year quarterback wasn't feeling as well on Friday as he did on Thursday. Oakland reporters are convinced that Pryor will sit this week, leaving the offense in the hands of Matt McGloin. Even if Pryor is declared fit to start, there's no guarantee his knee will hold up for the entire game. Like Tolzien, McGloin will likely have a negative impact on Oakland's receivers with the Raiders likely to lean heavily on running back Rashad Jennings.

The Raiders are 9.5-point dogs Sunday afternoon in Houston. The total is set at 41.


Tony Gonzalez, TE, Atlanta Falcons (questionable, toe)

What has already been a difficult season for Matt Ryan could hit a new low if Gonzalez can't go this weekend. The future Hall of Famer is dealing with a toe injury suffered last week and was limited in practice Friday afternoon. He's expected to be a game-time decision, though with just three missed games in 13-plus NFL seasons, if he can tolerate the pain, he'll likely play. Nevertheless, he won't be 100 percent - limiting a pass attack that has seen Julio Jones (foot) lost for the season and Roddy White (ankle/hamstring/shoulder) hampered all year long.

The Falcons are installed as 1-point dogs in Tampa, with the over/under set at 43.5.


Percy Harvin, WR, Seattle Seahawks (probable, hip)

Harvin will likely make his long-awaited Seahawks debut Sunday against Minnesota, though head coach Pete Carroll left a sliver of doubt Friday suggesting the dynamic wide receiver "has a chance to play." Lining up against his former team, Harvin will be especially motivated to get off to an electrifying start after missing the first 10 weeks following offseason hip surgery. Harvin will see a limited snap count in his first game, but should immediately upgrade a Seattle offense reeling from the loss of No. 1 receiver Sidney Rice (torn ACL).

The Seahawks are 12-point faves for Sunday's game against the visiting Vikings. The total is 45.


Shane Vereen, RB, New England Patriots (N/A, wrist)

Vereen is a man without an official injury status, since the Patriots have yet to activate him from the physically-unable-to-perform list. That's expected to be a mere formality, yet it isn't immediately clear how much Vereen will play in his first taste of game action since undergoing wrist surgery in early September. After racking up 159 yards in his only game of the season, the 24-year-old will provide some much-needed big-play ability to New England's beleaguered attack.

The Patriots are listed as one-point dogs for the Monday nighter in Carolina. The total is set at 46.

[Udog]

NFL weather report: Sunday's forecasts

New York Jets at Buffalo Bills (+1, 41)
There is a 64 percent chance of rain in the forecast. Wind will blow across the field at 16 mph.

Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-1, 43.5)
Temperatures will be in the low-80s with a 22 percent chance of rain. Wind will blow toward the N endzone at 6 mph.

Detroit Lions at Pittsburgh Steelers (+1, 47)
There is a 63 percent chance of rain with wind blowing toward the NE endzone at 13 mph.

Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5, 53)
There is a 23 percent chance of rain with wind blowing toward the N endzone at 6 mph.

Baltimore Ravens at Chicago Bears (-2.5, 44)
An 85 percent probability of thunderstorms is in the forecast with wind blowing toward the N endzone at 23 mph.

Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals (-6, 42)
There is a 78 percent chance of thunderstorms with wind blowing across the field at 13 mph.

Arizona Cardinals at Jacksonville Jaguars (+9.5, 41)
Wind will blow across the field at 11 mph. There is a 21 percent chance of rain in the forecast.

San Diego Chargers at Miami Dolphins (+1, 45.5)
Temperatures will be in the low-80s with wind blowing toward the W endzone at 11 mph.

Minnesota Vikings at Seattle Seahawks (-12, 45)
There is a 41 percent chance of rain with wind blowing toward the N endzone at 10 mph.

Green Bay Packers at New York Giants (-4, 42)
Skies will be overcast with wind blowing toward the N endzone at 6 mph.

Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos (-7.5, 49)
Temperatures will be in the low-40s.

[Udog]

Essential betting tidbits for Week 11 of NFL football

We dug up these vital betting tidbits for some of Sunday's NFL action that will help you make the right call before kickoff.

- New York Jets WR Santonio Holmes (hamstring) is expected to return following a five-game absence. They went 2-2 SU with him in the lineup.

- The Buffalo Bills are averaging 13.3 points during its three-game slide. They are also 0-3 ATS during this stretch.

- Tampa Bay is allowing the fifth-fewest yards on the ground in the NFL while surrendering only four rushing touchdowns.

- The Falcons only mustered 18 yards on 18 carries when the two teams met back in Week 7.

- The Detroit Lions are 0-8-1 in Pittsburgh since posting a 31-28 victory in 1955.

- The Steelers will be ready for the Detroit aerial assault. They have allowed an average of 201.3 passing yards, the fourth-best mark in the NFL.

- The Over in the Redskins vs. Eagles is the highest Consensus of the day, with a hair under 70 percent on the Over 52.5.

- The Ravens are 30th in the league in rushing with an average of 73.1 yards a game and Harbaugh said he'll go with the hot hand on Sunday, whether it be starter Ray Rice or his backup Bernard Pierce.

- The Bears are one of the worst teams in the league against the spread, with a record of 2-6-1 ATS heading into Sunday's tilt with the Ravens.

- The underdog is 12-3-1 ATS in the last 16 meetings between AFC North rivals Cleveland Browns and Cincinnati Bengals. The Browns are currently 5.5-point dogs at Cincy Sunday.

- The Houston Texans have lost their last three games by a combined seven points.

- Bengals WR A.J. Green, who had seven catches for 51 yards in the first meeting, has five consecutive 100-yard receiving games.

- Matt McGloin will start for the Oakland Raiders Sunday. McGloin went 7-of-15 for 87 yards in relief duty against the Philadelphia Eagles back on NOv. 3.

- Jacksonville has been outscored 89-11 in its three home games and are +9.5 with the Cardinals visiting Sunday.

- Cardinals QB Carson Palmer has completed better than 60 percent of his passes in five straight games.

- No team is undergoing more off-field drama than the Miami Dolphins and now Richie Incognito reportedly filed a grievance against Miami stemming from his suspension in relation to the Jonathan Martin case.

- The Minnesota Vikings have lost all four road games this season, but are 2-2 ATS.

- Seahawks WR Percy Harvin is expected to make his debut for the Seahawks to face his old team, the Minnesota Vikings, Sunday.

- The Saints have won and covered the spread in 14 straight home games with head coach Sean Payton on the sidelines (13 regular season games).

- The Over is 5-1 in the last six meetings between the Packers and Giants. Sunday afternoon's total is currently 41.

- Kansas City has surrendered the sixth-fewest passing yards in the NFL (1,875) while limiting the opposition to nine touchdowns and snagging 12 interceptions.

- The dog is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings between the Chiefs and Broncos. Sunday's dog is Kansas City (+7.5)

[jt4545]

Udog thanks for the info always and good luck, i screwed up my goy yesterday wow they look like a deer in headlights

[Udog]

Udog thanks for the info always and good luck, i screwed up my goy yesterday wow they look like a deer in headlights

Yep, the Horns collapse really surprised me yesterday.

On the opposite end of the stick, Florida really surprised me with the way they rose up for Spurrier's guys.

I don't really think you did screw it up, jt. My results came up Texas in that game, too. It did for a lot of guys. I think Texas screwed it up when they lost their composure early.

Man, I wish I was close enough to get a face full of those smothered pork chops!

Good luck today, jt!