NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 11 (Thursday, November 14 - Monday, November 18)

[Udog]

NFL Trends and Indexes

Thursday, November 14 - Monday, November 18

Additional trends and information will be added as available.

NOTE:
As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.
Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.

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[Udog]

NFL opening line report: Broncos TD faves vs. Chiefs[/COLOR][/SIZE]

If the Week 11 showdown between the Kansas City Chiefs and Denver Broncos wasn’t juicy enough, football bettors were thrown a curveball with Peyton Manning’s ankle injury Sunday afternoon.

The future Hall of Fame QB was hurt in Sunday’s win over the San Diego Chargers, and underwent an MRI Monday morning. However, early word spreading in Las Vegas is that Manning will be good to go and oddsmakers are installing Denver as a 7-point home favorite versus Kansas City Sunday night.

“They showed well yesterday,” Peter Korner, founder of Nevada-based odds service The Sports Club, says of the Broncos. “I don’t think Manning would miss this game, no matter what.”

Korner says his stable of oddsmakers had this game as high as Broncos -8 but sent out the TD spread, knowing the public will be sizing up the underdog Chiefs coming off the bye week rested and prepared for Denver.

“I think when it comes to Sunday, people are going to be betting Kansas City,” he says. “This looks like a strong underdog play for the public. There will be enough money on Denver as well, so it bodes well for us as oddsmakers.”

Green Bay Packers at New York Giants (-5.5)

The Packers are down to third-string quarterback Scott Tolzien when they take on the Giants in Week 11.

However, Korner says there’s no difference in the spread between Tolzien and No. 2 Seneca Wallace, who injured his groin in Sunday’s loss to Philadelphia. He sent out a suggested spread of New York -5.5, with some sportsbooks dealing this line as high as -6.

“We’re throwing them all together in terms of quality,” Korner says of Tolzien and Wallace. “It doesn’t matter who's under center for Green Bay. New York has a lot of momentum and I’d be surprised if Green Bay can keep this close.”


San Francisco 49ers at New Orleans Saints (-3)

Korner’s oddsmakers initially sent out New Orleans as a 2.5-point home favorite but tagged an extra half point on that spread after the Saints’ destroyed the Cowboys on Sunday Night Football.

San Francisco’s offense was stymied by the Panthers defense Sunday, limited to just nine points and only 91 yards passing from Colin Kaepernick.

“We shouldn’t be surprised by what Carolina did to San Francisco Sunday,” says Korner. “It’s pretty easy to make New Orleans the favorite but I think 3.5 might be too high, especially up north. San Francisco is going to get its plays.”


New England Patriots at Carolina Panthers (-1)

Carolina proved doubters wrong with a dominant defensive showing in a win over San Francisco Sunday, extending its winning streak to five games. That’s enough to install the Panthers as favorites against the Patriots on Monday Night Football.

Korner’s group sent out a suggested line of Carolina -2.5, however, many books are dealing this primetime matchup as low as Panthers -1, with New England coming off a bye in Week 11.

“We were all unanimous about Carolina being the favorite,” says Korner. “I think Carolina wins here. They bring a lot of momentum into it. New England is rested but just doesn’t have the same quality of receivers, outside of (Rob) Gronkowski. This could easily go to -3."

[Udog]

NFL line watch: Patience required for Chicago backers

Spread to bet now

Detroit Lions at Pittsburgh Steelers (+2.5)

Steelers' fans should consider jumping on their team right away. This line opened at +3, quickly dropped to 2.5, with 1.5's and 1's now starting to predominate.

The Lions would hold on for a 21-19 win in Chicago last week while the Steelers would bounce back from back-to-back losses to beat the Bills 23-10.

As brutally as Pittsburgh started the season, at 3-6 entering Week 11, it still mathematically has a shot at catching the division leading Bengals who are 6-4. A cold day at Heinz Field in mid-November is just what the doctor ordered for Pittsburgh to continue its winning ways.

Expect bettors to hit the undervalued home side throughout the week and for this number to inch closer and closer to the "pick em" range.


Spread to wait on

Baltimore Ravens at Chicago Bears (-3)

Bears' backers be warned! I'd recommend waiting a little closer to kickoff before jumping on your team this week.

This lined opened at -3 and as of printing, I do in fact see a couple of 2.5's on the board (Pinnacle, 5Dimes), and I suspect that we'll start to see more and more as the week goes on.

Chicago coach Mark Trestman has said that QB Jay Cutler suffered a high-ankle sprain in last week's 21-19 loss to the Lions and has been ruled out vs. Baltimore. Josh McCown will now get the start for 'Da Bears under center this week.

The defending champs have looked brilliant at times this season and pretty pedestrian in others, but their 20-17 win over rival Cincinnati has them once again firmly in the mix for the division title this year. Cutler's injury will force bettors hands into backing the visitors this week.


Total to watch

Minnesota Vikings at Seattle Seahawks (46)

Under bettors would be wise to get down on this one immediately.

This line opened at 46, and while for the most part that is still the predominating number as of printing, there are now a few 45.5's on the board as well. I think it could drop even lower.

Over the Vikes nine games this year, the total is 7-2; 5-0 at home but just 2-2 on the road. The Seahawks O/U to date is 5-5, dead even at 2-2 at home and 3-3 away from friendly confines.

A wet, blustery week leading up to kickoff in Seattle seems like conducive conditions for each club putting an added emphasis on running and protecting the ball in this game.

[Udog]

NFL
Dunkel

Week 11

Indianapolis at Tennessee
The Colts look to bounce back from their 38-8 loss to St. Louis last week and build on their 10-1 ATS record in their last 11 games following a SU defeat. Indianapolis is the pick (-2 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Colts favored by 9. Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (-2 1/2). Here are all of this week's picks.

THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 14

Game 309-310: Indianapolis at Tennessee (8:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indianapolis 137.488; Tennessee 128.678
Dunkel Line: Indianapolis by 9; 38
Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 2 1/2; 42
Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (-2 1/2); Under


SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 17

Game 403-404: Atlanta at Tampa Bay (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 122.718; Tampa Bay 129.915
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 7; 46
Vegas Line: Atlanta by 2; 42 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+2); Over

Game 405-406: NY Jets at Buffalo (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Jets 128.784; Buffalo 127.785
Dunkel Line: NY Jets by 1; 44
Vegas Line: Buffalo by 1; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Jets (+1); Over

Game 407-408: Detroit at Pittsburgh (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 135.669; Pittsburgh 129.408
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 6 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: Detroit by 1; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-1); Under

Game 409-410: Washington at Philadelphia (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 126.253; Philadelphia 138.929
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 12 1/2; 46
Vegas Line: Philadelphia by 3 1/2; 52 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (-3 1/2); Under

Game 411-412: San Diego at Miami (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego 130.284; Miami 134.625
Dunkel Line: Miami by 4 1/2; 49
Vegas Line: San Diego by 1 1/2; 45 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Miami (+1 1/2); Over

Game 413-414: Baltimore at Chicago (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore 133.053; Chicago 132.477
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 1; 49
Vegas Line: Chicago by 3; 46 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+3); Over

Game 415-416: Cleveland at Cincinnati (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 127.867; Cincinnati 142.022
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 14; 37
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 5 1/2; 42 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-5 1/2); Under

Game 417-418: Oakland at Houston (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland 128.191; Houston 128.765
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1; 47
Vegas Line: Houston by 7 1/2; 42
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (+7 1/2); Over

Game 419-420: Arizona at Jacksonville (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 133.153; Jacksonville 116.507
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 16 1/2; 38
Vegas Line: Arizona by 6 1/2; 41
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (-6 1/2); Under

Game 421-422: Kansas City at Denver (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City 136.034; Denver 141.602
Dunkel Line: Denver by 5 1/2; 56
Vegas Line: Denver by 9 1/2; 49 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+9 1/2); Over

Game 423-424: Minnesota at Seattle (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 120.894; Seattle 140.792
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 20; 40
Vegas Line: Seattle by 12; 46
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-12); Under

Game 425-426: San Francisco at New Orleans (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco 139.619; New Orleans 144.570
Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 5; 45
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 3; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (-3); Under

Game 427-428: Green Bay at NY Giants (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Green Bay 129.104; NY Giants 131.908
Dunkel Line: NY Giants by 3; 47
Vegas Line: NY Giants by 6; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (+6); Over


MONDAY, NOVEMBER 18

Game 429-430: New England at Carolina (8:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New England 140.251; Carolina 137.723
Dunkel Line: New England by 1 1/2; 50
Vegas Line: Carolina by 2 1/2; 46 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New England (+2 1/2); Over

[Udog]

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 11

Thursday, November 14

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INDIANAPOLIS (6 - 3) at TENNESSEE (4 - 5) - 11/14/2013, 8:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
INDIANAPOLIS is 23-10 ATS (+12.0 Units) as a road favorite of 3 points or less since 1992.
INDIANAPOLIS is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when playing on a Thursday since 1992.
TENNESSEE is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
TENNESSEE is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANAPOLIS is 3-1 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
INDIANAPOLIS is 3-1 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Sunday, November 17

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ATLANTA (2 - 7) at TAMPA BAY (1 - 8) - 11/17/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 51-31 ATS (+16.9 Units) in November games since 1992.
TAMPA BAY is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 2-2 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 3-2 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NY JETS (5 - 4) at BUFFALO (3 - 7) - 11/17/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
BUFFALO is 23-10 ATS (+12.0 Units) in home games in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
NY JETS are 45-27 ATS (+15.3 Units) in road games versus division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY JETS is 3-2 against the spread versus BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
NY JETS is 4-1 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DETROIT (6 - 3) at PITTSBURGH (3 - 6) - 11/17/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 33-54 ATS (-26.4 Units) in November games since 1992.
DETROIT is 7-20 ATS (-15.0 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive wins since 1992.
DETROIT is 30-49 ATS (-23.9 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 10-21 ATS (-13.1 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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WASHINGTON (3 - 6) at PHILADELPHIA (5 - 5) - 11/17/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 36-19 ATS (+15.1 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
PHILADELPHIA is 8-17 ATS (-10.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 8-17 ATS (-10.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 0-11 ATS (-12.1 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 0-11 ATS (-12.1 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in home games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 0-11 ATS (-12.1 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 3-2 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 3-2 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SAN DIEGO (4 - 5) at MIAMI (4 - 5) - 11/17/2013, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN DIEGO is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in November games over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 35-15 ATS (+18.5 Units) against AFC West division opponents since 1992.
MIAMI is 12-25 ATS (-15.5 Units) after playing on Monday night football since 1992.
MIAMI is 44-65 ATS (-27.5 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN DIEGO is 1-0 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
SAN DIEGO is 1-0 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BALTIMORE (4 - 5) at CHICAGO (5 - 4) - 11/17/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 31-49 ATS (-22.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
CHICAGO is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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CLEVELAND (4 - 5) at CINCINNATI (6 - 4) - 11/17/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 114-148 ATS (-48.8 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
CINCINNATI is 59-88 ATS (-37.8 Units) versus division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CLEVELAND is 3-1 against the spread versus CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
CINCINNATI is 3-2 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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OAKLAND (3 - 6) at HOUSTON (2 - 7) - 11/17/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 32-67 ATS (-41.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
OAKLAND is 17-36 ATS (-22.6 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.
HOUSTON is 37-19 ATS (+16.1 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
OAKLAND is 1-0 against the spread versus HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
OAKLAND is 1-0 straight up against HOUSTON over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ARIZONA (5 - 4) at JACKSONVILLE (1 - 8) - 11/17/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 16-32 ATS (-19.2 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
ARIZONA is 16-30 ATS (-17.0 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins since 1992.
JACKSONVILLE is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 2 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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KANSAS CITY (9 - 0) at DENVER (8 - 1) - 11/17/2013, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 45-27 ATS (+15.3 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 2-2 against the spread versus KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
DENVER is 3-1 straight up against KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
3 of 3 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MINNESOTA (2 - 7) at SEATTLE (9 - 1) - 11/17/2013, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 19-9 ATS (+9.1 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 19-9 ATS (+9.1 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 23-9 ATS (+13.1 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 17-5 ATS (+11.5 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in home games in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 1-0 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
SEATTLE is 1-0 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SAN FRANCISCO (6 - 3) at NEW ORLEANS (7 - 2) - 11/17/2013, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 18-4 ATS (+13.6 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 18-4 ATS (+13.6 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) in home games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 20-6 ATS (+13.4 Units) in dome games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 29-16 ATS (+11.4 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 29-16 ATS (+11.4 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN FRANCISCO is 2-0 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
SAN FRANCISCO is 2-0 straight up against NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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GREEN BAY (5 - 4) at NY GIANTS (3 - 6) - 11/17/2013, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY GIANTS are 29-54 ATS (-30.4 Units) in November games since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 27-50 ATS (-28.0 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY GIANTS is 3-0 against the spread versus GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
NY GIANTS is 2-1 straight up against GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Monday, November 18

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NEW ENGLAND (7 - 2) at CAROLINA (6 - 3) - 11/18/2013, 8:40 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 57-37 ATS (+16.3 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 79-45 ATS (+29.5 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 100-72 ATS (+20.8 Units) in road games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 100-72 ATS (+20.8 Units) in road lined games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 95-69 ATS (+19.1 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 66-42 ATS (+19.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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[Udog]

NFL

Week 11

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Trend Report
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Thursday, November 14

8:25 PM
INDIANAPOLIS vs. TENNESSEE
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Indianapolis's last 8 games when playing on the road against Tennessee
Indianapolis is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Tennessee
Tennessee is 3-7 SU in its last 10 games when playing at home against Indianapolis
The total has gone UNDER in 13 of Tennessee's last 16 games when playing Indianapolis


Sunday, November 17

1:00 PM
ATLANTA vs. TAMPA BAY
Atlanta is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games when playing on the road against Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is 2-8 SU in its last 10 games when playing Atlanta
Tampa Bay is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games

1:00 PM
NY JETS vs. BUFFALO
The total has gone OVER in 5 of the NY Jets last 7 games when playing Buffalo
NY Jets are 1-5 SU in their last 6 games on the road
Buffalo is 2-6 ATS in their last 8 games when playing NY Jets
Buffalo is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games

1:00 PM
CLEVELAND vs. CINCINNATI
Cleveland is 6-2-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Cincinnati
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Cleveland's last 9 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Cincinnati's last 8 games at home
Cincinnati is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

1:00 PM
WASHINGTON vs. PHILADELPHIA
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 7 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
Washington is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Philadelphia
Philadelphia is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Philadelphia is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Washington

1:00 PM
OAKLAND vs. HOUSTON
Oakland is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Oakland is 4-14 SU in its last 18 games
Houston is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Houston is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Oakland

1:00 PM
BALTIMORE vs. CHICAGO
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Baltimore's last 6 games when playing Chicago
Baltimore is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Chicago
Chicago is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Chicago's last 11 games

1:00 PM
DETROIT vs. PITTSBURGH
The total has gone OVER in 15 of Detroit's last 23 games on the road
Detroit is 5-12-1 ATS in its last 18 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games
Pittsburgh is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Detroit

1:00 PM
ARIZONA vs. JACKSONVILLE
Arizona is 1-10 SU in its last 11 games on the road
Arizona is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games
Jacksonville is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games at home
Jacksonville is 1-13 SU in its last 14 games

4:05 PM
SAN DIEGO vs. MIAMI
The total has gone OVER in 16 of San Diego's last 23 games on the road
San Diego is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Miami
Miami is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games when playing San Diego
Miami is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games

4:25 PM
SAN FRANCISCO vs. NEW ORLEANS
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of San Francisco's last 17 games when playing on the road against New Orleans
The total has gone OVER in 12 of San Francisco's last 16 games
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of New Orleans's last 17 games when playing at home against San Francisco
New Orleans is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against San Francisco

4:25 PM
MINNESOTA vs. SEATTLE
Minnesota is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
Minnesota is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Seattle's last 5 games when playing at home against Minnesota
Seattle is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

4:25 PM
GREEN BAY vs. NY GIANTS
Green Bay is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Green Bay is 16-8 SU in its last 24 games on the road
NY Giants are 8-3 SU in their last 11 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of the NY Giants last 6 games at home

8:30 PM
KANSAS CITY vs. DENVER
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Kansas City's last 8 games on the road
Kansas City is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games when playing on the road against Denver
The total has gone OVER in 9 of Denver's last 10 games
Denver is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games when playing at home against Kansas City


Monday, November 18

8:40 PM
NEW ENGLAND vs. CAROLINA
New England is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games on the road
New England is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Carolina's last 5 games at home
Carolina is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games


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[Udog]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 11

Thursday's game

Colts (6-3) @ Titans (4-5)—Hard to trust Indy squad that got outscored 49-3 in first half of last two games vs teams with losing records, only winning at Houston after Kubiak had stroke at halftime. In two games since their bye, Colts ran ball 28 times (for 87 yards), dropped back to throw 99 times, a terrible ratio. Indy is 3-1 on road, with only loss at San Diego; they’ve won eight of last nine games vs Titans, winning three of last four visits here, with wins by 22-2-6 points. Tennessee lost QB Locker (foot) for year last week, but Fitzpatrick has NFL experience (xx-xx record as starter, 0-2 this year); Titans lost four of last five games after 3-1 start, losing to lowly 0-8 Jags last week- they’ve turned ball over 13 times (-5) in last five games (were +9 during 3-1 start) and given up defensive TD in two of last three games. Tennessee lost last three home games, allowing 28.7 ppg; Home teams are 0-4 vs spread in AFC South divisional games; NFL-wide, divisional home underdogs are 8-8 vs spread.




NFL

Thursday, November 14

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Colts at Titans: What bettors need to know
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Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans (+3, 42)

A showdown in the AFC South lost a lot of its luster when the Indianapolis Colts and Tennessee Titans absorbed embarrassing home losses on Sunday. The host Titans could see their division title hopes disappear with a loss Thursday to the front-running Colts, who must rebound from a stunning 38-8 rout at the hands of the St. Louis Rams. Tennessee not only fell to previously winless Jacksonville, but may have lost quarterback Jake Locker for the season with a foot injury.

Indianapolis is in control of the division with a two-game lead over the Titans, but it fell behind 28-0 in the first half Sunday after trailing 21-3 at the half in an eventual win at Houston the previous week. "I take full responsibility for it as the football coach, we did not have this team ready to play," Colts coach Chuck Pagano said in the wake of Sunday's carnage. Tennessee has lost four of five and faces a three-game road trip following Thursday's matchup.

TV: 8:25 p.m. ET, NFL Network. LINE: Colts -3. O/U: 42.

WEATHER: Clear skies, 1 mph wind and 45 degrees expected.

POWER RATING: Colts -3, Tennessee +3.5 plus add 3 points for home field = adjusted Covers line of Colts -3.5.

ABOUT THE COLTS (6-3): Indianapolis has beaten league heavyweights Seattle, San Francisco and Denver but its three losses have come against three clubs without a winning record. The Rams burned the Colts with three long touchdowns by rookie Tavon Austin, taking away Indianapolis' chances of trying to establish running back Trent Richardson, who has been a disaster since his acquisition from Cleveland, averaging 35.7 yards rushing over seven games. Although Andrew Luck threw for 353 yards, he was picked off three times - matching his total from the previous eight games.

ABOUT THE TITANS (4-5): Locker was on crutches following Sunday's game amid fears that he suffered a Lisfranc injury, continuing a trend that has seen him unable to stay healthy in his first three seasons. Ryan Fitzpatrick, who lost two starts in place of Locker last month, threw for 264 yards and two touchdowns on Sunday but his fumble with just over 2 1/2 minutes to play stalled Tennessee's comeback. Running back Chris Johnson broke out of his season-long doldrums with 150 yards and two touchdowns before the bye week, but was limited to 30 yards on 12 carries by the Jaguars.

EXTRA POINTS

1. The Colts have won three straight meetings and swept the season series by a combined 10 points - including an OT victory - a year ago.

2. The Titans did not commit a turnover in their first four games but have coughed up the ball 13 times in their last five.

3. Fitzpatrick's two losses last month came against Seattle and Kansas City, which rank among the top three teams in points allowed.


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[WThotrod]

Thanks and good luck, Udog!

[Udog]

Thanks and good luck, Udog!

Good morning, rod! Let's start the NFL week off right tonight!

[Udog]

NFL

Thursday, November 14

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Tale of the Tape: Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans
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Two teams coming off dreadful performances meet in the Thursday nighter as the Indianapolis Colts tangle with the host Tennessee Titans.

The Colts had their most embarrassing game in a long time last week, getting trounced 38-8 by the visiting St. Louis Rams. They'll face off against a Titans team dealing with its own forgettable effort, falling 29-27 against Jacksonville to hand the Jaguars their first victory over the season.

Here's the breakdown in our betting tale of the tape:

Offense

The Colts have shown flashes of brilliance under second-year quarterback Andrew Luck, but struggles in the running game and the absence of top target Reggie Wayne have had a negative impact on his effectiveness. Under Luck, Indianapolis is in the middle of the pack in passing yards per game (255.9) while racking up 14 touchdowns against just seven interceptions. The Colts are similarly ranked in rushing yards per contest (110.2) with eight touchdowns.

The Titans are about to be downgraded at quarterback for the second time in 2013 after losing starter Jake Locker to a season-ending foot injury. Backup Ryan Fitzpatrick filled in for Locker for three games earlier this season, but didn't fare all that well. Tennessee comes into this one ranked 23rd in the league in passing yards per game (211.7) with 12 touchdowns, and a more impressive 11th in rushing yards per contest (111.2) with eight scores.

Edge: Indianapolis


Defense

The Colts had one of the strongest defenses in the league in the early going, but have regressed over the past month. Indianapolis is now 16th in the NFL in passing yards against per game (241.2), surrendering 13 touchdowns while recording eight interceptions. The run defense has been especially poor this year, allowing the seventh-most rushing yards per outing (126.6) with six touchdowns on 4.3 yards per carry.

Tennessee's pass defense is one of the strongest in the league, surrendering the eighth-fewest yards per game (211.3) while giving up just seven touchdowns in the air and hauling in eight interceptions. The run defense hasn't been as solid, sitting 21st in yards surrendered per contest (114.9) while getting torched for 12 scores. The Titans have, however, forced eight turnovers on opposing rushers while recovering five of them - both second in the league.

Edge: Tennessee


Special Teams

Indianapolis has fared well in the return game, ranked 11th in average kickoff return yardage (24.5) and 14th in punt return average (9.4). The Colts are 16th in kickoff return average against (24.3) and third in the NFL in opposing punt return average (15.6); they're one of six teams to have surrendered a punt return touchdown. Veteran placekicker Adam Vinatieri has connected on 17-of-20 field-goal attempts this season, but didn't have a single attempt against the Rams.

Tennessee sits 16th in the league in average kick return yardage (23.7) but has struggled mightily on punt returns, ranked 27th with a 6.9-yard average. The Titans are 13th in opposition kick return average (24.8) while limiting foes to just 5.3 yards per punt return. Kicker Rob Bironas is a pedestrian 13-for-16 on field goals this season, but connected from 38 and 40 yards out in last weekend's narrow loss to Jacksonville.

Edge: Even


Notable Quotable

"Losing a guy like Reggie, you can't replace a guy like that, not only his leadership qualities but his production obviously on the field. Guys have been pressed into action and they've got to respond. We're seeing glimpses of what those guys can do, but they got to step up even further." - Colts head coach Chuck Pagano on his receiving corps

"It's Ryan's offense and Ryan's team. So the direction of it can change now. Before it was stopgap - more, 'Hey, this is Jake's offense and we're still going to play to his strengths. We can't make too drastic a change.' Obviously now we need to play to Ryan's strengths and the things he does well." - Titans offensive coordinator Dowell Loggains


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[Udog]

Where the action is: Bettors like Colts, Over

The Indianapolis Colts will attempt to put a blowout loss behind them when they face the Tennessee Titans at LP Field in Nashville on Thursday Night Football. We talk to Mike Perry, an oddsmaker with Sportsbook.ag about the action coming in on this primetime matchup and where the odds could end up come kickoff Thursday night.

Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans - Open: +3

Some sportsbooks are dealing this spread as low as Tennessee +1, but the majority of markets have this line sitting with the Titans as 3-point home dogs or +2.5 as of Thursday afternoon. According to Perry, Sharp bettors have been staying away from this game, but the public is backing the visiting team.

"We opened Indy -3 flat," Perry told Covers. "There has been no Sharp action on this game and the Colts are currently -3 (-115). Eighty-six percent of money is on the Colts."

The majority of wagering outlets opened the total anywhere from 42 to 43 and there has not been a whole lot of fluctuation since post. Perry and his book opened with the total at 43, where it has remained. He does confirm that 75 percent of the cash coming in is on the Over.

[jt4545]

Thanks and good luck udog

[Udog]

Thanks and good luck udog

Thanks jt! The Titans are surprising me a little so far. There's a lot of time left, though.

[Udog]

NFL mid-week line moves: Sharps like Under in Denver

San Francisco 49ers at New Orleans Saints - Open: -3, Move: -3.5

Most wagering outlets opened with the Saints as fieldgoal faves at home for this clash of NFC giants. Bettors are backing the home team, who are coming off a spectacular performance on the national stage last Sunday night.

"Literally all the early money was on the Saints, forcing us to to to Saints -3 (-120) and eventually getting off that key number of 3 and going to 3.5 flat," says Stewart. "I doubt we'll go much higher than 3.5 and if anything, we might go -3.5 (-115) later this week, but again at this point we're fine with our 3.5 flat number.


Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos - Open: 51, Move: 49.5

Bettors have loved betting the Over in Broncos' games this season, but this week we have seen a change in direction. Early action was on the Under, but Stewart stated that since the public hasn't gotten involved yet, fully expects them to come in and take the Over like they have for each game this season.

"We opened the Chiefs-Broncos total 51, by far the lowest total we've offered on at Bronco game since Week 3," Stewart said. "But our opening total didn't last long as we saw sharp action bet us under that number, and we moved aggressively off that sharp bet and went straight to 50, eventually going to 49.5 and that's the number we've been dealing since Tuesday.


Green Bay Packers at New York Giants - Open: -7, Move: -6.5

Even with the Packers starting a third-string QB, it hasn't been a deterrent to Packer backers. Money has come in on the Pack since that opening number forcing a move, and books are starting to see New York money trickle in.

"We opened the Giants -7 versus the Packers, and we thought the Giants would attract the money in this game," Stewart told Covers. "We were wrong. Most of the initial action was on the Packers +7, forcing us to go to Packers +7 (-115) / Giants -7 (-105). With more money coming in on the Packers at that number, we moved off the key number of 7 and went to Giants -6.5 flat. But even at that number we're seeing more and more action come in on the dog so we further adjusted off the 6.5 and made the Packers +6.5 (-115) / Giants -6.5 (-105)."

[Udog]

NFL Betting Week 11 preview: Hot bets and moving odds

All odds current as of noon ET, Nov. 14

Everybody loves a big payout. That’s why billions of people spend billions of dollars every year on lottery tickets and that’s exactly why football bettors can’t get enough of moneyline upsets.

Right now, outright underdog bettors are frothing at the mouth over the Week 11 odds board. There were eight games seeing pointspreads of a field goal or less at Sports Interaction at noon Thursday, including four home underdogs.

For what it’s worth, outright underdogs are winning games at a 31 percent clip this season and home underdogs have won 39 percent of their games. However, home underdogs are covering the spread at almost a 55-percent clip.

Odds on the move

Aaron Rodgers’ collarbone injury combined with a rebounding New York Giants has resulted in the biggest line move of the week. The Giants opened as 6.5-point favorites at Sports Interaction after reeling off three straight wins, but have dropped to 4.5-point faves at home to Green Bay.

As New England braces for a battle with the surging Carolina Panthers, early bettors can’t get enough of the over. This total opened at 44 points and is now up to 46. New England put 55 points on the board last week and with this game being in a primetime spot, the total may continue to rise.

As mentioned, the Broncos are holding as 8-point favorites – for now. However, with the Broncos playing under the total for the first time all season last week, we’ve seen Week 11’s total drop from 51 to 49.

Week 11’s most popular bets

Sports Interaction bettors are all over the Colts to bounce back after last week’s dud. About 91 percent of our action is on Indianapolis as it travels to Tennessee for Thursday Night Football.

The most popular bet on the board is the Detroit Lions (-2.5) at the Pittsburgh Steelers with 93 percent of bets coming in on the road team.

And, if you were wondering, the Kansas City Chiefs are seeing 75 percent of our action as 8-point underdogs heading into Denver.