NCAAF Trends and Indexes - Week 12 (Tuesday, November 12 - Saturday, November 16)

[Udog]

NCAAF

Wednesday, November 13

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Two key betting trends for Ball State-Northern Illinois
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Ball State (9-3 SU, 7-3 ATS) travels to face Northern Illinois (9-0, 6-3 ATS) in a key Mid-American Conference game tonight.

The road team in this rivalry has covered in the last four meetings. The Cardinals have also gone 8-2 ATS in their last 10 games coming off a bye week.


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[Udog]

NCAAF
Short Sheet

Week 12

Thursday, November 14

Georgia Tech at Clemson, 7:30 ET
Georgia Tech: 0-7 ATS off a home win against a conference rival
Clemson: 16-6 ATS after a win by 35 or more points

Marshall at Tulsa, 7:30 ET
Marshall: 10-24 ATS as a road favorite
Tulsa: 1-8 ATS in all games




NCAAF

Thursday, November 14

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Georgia Tech at Clemson: What bettors need to know
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GEORGIA TECH at CLEMSON (-11.5, 59)

Clemson has thrashed opposing defenses since being held to 14 points in a blowout loss to Florida State on Oct. 19, scoring 99 points in its past two games entering Thursday’s home contest against Georgia Tech. The No. 6 Tigers are 15th nationally in scoring as senior quarterback Tajh Boyd continues rewriting the school and ACC record books. Georgia Tech leads the Coastal Division with a 5-2 mark after a three-game winning streak, but must beat Clemson and avoid tying Miami and Virginia Tech atop the division standings to return to the conference title game.

Boyd’s four touchdowns in Clemson’s 59-10 rout of Virginia on Nov. 2 gave him 116 career touchdowns, most in ACC history, and he needs three more passing touchdowns to snap the conference record. Georgia Tech’s Jemea Thomas has won two of the past three ACC Defensive Back of the Week honors. The Yellow Jackets have improved defensively during their past three games, holding opponents to 35 points and recording a season-high five sacks in a 21-10 victory over Pittsburgh on Nov. 2.

TV: 7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN. LINE: Clemson -10

ABOUT GEORGIA TECH (6-3, 5-2 ACC): It is no secret the Yellow Jackets want to run the football, averaging 311.2 yards on the ground, but 5-foot-7 A-back Robert Godhigh has established himself as Georgia Tech’s go-to back. Godhigh is averaging 11.3 yards of total offense per play, and 55 percent of his offensive touches result in first downs or touchdowns. Senior defensive end Jeremiah Attaochu has four sacks in his past two games and 25 in his career, six from the school career record.

ABOUT CLEMSON (8-1, 6-1 ACC): Sammy Watkins has benefited from Boyd’s strong season, needing just 18 yards to record his second career 1,000-yard receiving season and is 112 yards from the school’s career receiving yardage mark. Boyd is 41 rushing yards away from becoming the first quarterback in ACC history with at least 10,000 yards passing and 1,000 yards rushing. Defensive lineman Vic Beasley has 10 sacks in nine games, helping fuel a Clemson defense that has allowed 14 points or less six times.

EXTRA POINTS

1. Clemson punter Bradley Pinion has pinned opponents inside the 20-yard line on 20 of his 46 punts this season.

2. The Yellow Jackets allowed minus-5 yards rushing against Pittsburgh.

3. Georgia Tech leads the series 50-26-2, but Clemson is 11-6 against the Yellow Jackets at home.


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NCAAF

Thursday, November 14

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Tulsa 0-5 ATS when redshirt freshman QB plays
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Tulsa redshirt Freshman quarterback Dane Evans will get just his third start of his career Thursday when he and the Golden Hurricane face the visiting Marshal Thundering Herd.

The Golden Hurricane are 0-5 straight up and against the spread in the five games he's appeared this season.

Evans' start against East Carolina on Saturday was rough - he completed just 14-of-33 passes for 142 yards, a TD and two interceptions in a 58-24 loss.

The Texas product has just three touchdowns against six interceptions this year on a 2-7 Tulsa squad.


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[Udog]

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 12

Thursday's games

Underdogs covered 13 of last 16 Georgia Tech-Clemson games, with the home team winning last four; Yellow Jackets lost last two visits to Death Valley, 47-31/27-13. Tigers scored 99 points in their last two games, but they're 3-3 as favorite this year, 1-1 at home. Seven of Clemson's 8 wins are by 10+ points (UGa 38-35); they're 7-2 in last nine games as an ACC home favorite. Tech is 4-4 in last eight games as an ACC dog. Favorites are 6-1-2 in Tech games this year; Jackets are 0-2 as dogs, losing 45-3 at Miami, 38-20 at BYU- they won last three games, allowing total of 35 points. Home faves are 15-9 against spread in ACC games this season.

Tulsa won its last four games with Marshall by average score of 45-30, covering last two, but Golden Hurricane is 2-7 this year, 1-8 vs spread, losing last three games by average score of 35-15. Herd outgained Tulsa 572-340 LY but still lost 45-38; Marshall is just 1-3 on road, winning at FAU by a point, losing at Ohio/Va Tech/Middle Tennessee. Herd gave up 34.3 ppg in their four road games; home teams covered seven of their eight lined games this season. Five of Tulsa's seven losses are by 17+. Conference USA home underdogs are 7-9 against the spread this year.

[Udog]

Where the action is: Sharps, public on Clemson

Thursday brings us a big matchup in the ACC as Clemson (No. 2 in the Atlantic Division) hosts the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (No. 1 in the Coastal Division). We talk to Mike Perry, an oddsmaker with Sportsbook.ag about the action coming in on this ACC matchup and where the odds could end up before kickoff.

Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets at Clemson Tigers - Open: -10, Move: -11, Move: -11.5

Action on the home team has come in fast and furious as the Tigers offense has woken up in the past two games after sputtering against Florida State. The Tigers have put up 99 points in the previous two games (at Maryland, at Virginia) and come in red hot against the Jackets Thursday night.

"Monday we got a sharp play on the favorite so moved to Clemson -11," Perry told Covers. "Tuesday we made another move in Clemson’s favor to the current number of 11.5 as 83 percent of cash is on the Tigers."

The total opened 60 and has held firm all week. Cash is flooding in on the Over, however, as Perry stated that 88 percent of money is hammering the Over 60.

[Udog]

NCAAF
Dunkel

Week 12

Washington at UCLA
The Bruins look to take advantage of a Washington team that is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 road games. UCLA is the pick (-2 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Bruins favored by 7 1/2. Dunkel Pick: UCLA (-2 1/2). Here are all of this week's games.

FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 15

Game 315-316: Washington at UCLA (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 95.956; UCLA 103.473
Dunkel Line: UCLA by 7 1/2; 53
Vegas Line: UCLA by 2 1/2; 60 1/2
Dunkel Pick: UCLA (-2 1/2); Under




NCAAF
Short Sheet

Week 12

Washington at UCLA, 9:00 ET
Washington: 4-13 ATS off a home blowout win by 28 points or more
UCLA: 26-13 ATS in home games off a road win




NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 12

Friday's game

Washington/UCLA haven't met since 2010, so Mora is coaching against his alma mater for first time; Bruins won 11 of last 14 series games, as Huskies lost last seven visits to UCLA, with three of seven losses by 4 or less points. UCLA is 3-1 as home favorite this year, winning in Rose Bowl by 38-46-26-22 points- they've allowed 23+ points in each of last four games. Washington is 1-2 on road, losing 31-28 at Stanford, 53-24 at Arizona State in last two away games; they scored 100 points in winning last two games, both at home. Only two of Washington's nine games were decided by less than 18 points. Both teams covered one of their last four games. Huskies are 1-1 as an underdog this year.




NCAAF

Friday, November 15

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Washington at UCLA: What bettors need to know
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Washington Huskies at UCLA Bruins (-2.5, 60.5)

UCLA freshman Myles Jack probably won’t kick any field goals when the No. 15 Bruins host Washington on Friday, but even that can’t be ruled out after last week’s performance. The talented linebacker/running back sparked the Bruins’ 31-26 victory over Arizona with eight tackles while rushing for 120 yards on six carries, including a 66-yard touchdown. He’ll need another big game for the Bruins to keep pace with Washington, which has averaged 50 points and amassed 1,270 yards of total offense in the last two games.

UCLA is in position to win the Pac-12 South Division for the second time in two seasons under coach Jim Mora, who was positively giddy after the Bruins won for the seventh time in nine games last week. "We’ve got a long ways to go, no doubt, but what’s awesome is that we’re making strides," he said. “It’s only a matter of time before this program goes where we’re aiming.” Washington, which gained bowl eligibility with last week’s 59-6 rout of Colorado, certainly has the offensive firepower to derail UCLA’s Rose Bowl hopes.

TV: 9 p.m. ET, ESPN2. LINE: UCLA -2.5

ABOUT WASHINGTON (6-3, 3-3 Pac-12): Quarterback Keith Price threw two touchdowns and ran for two more against Colorado, and running back Bishop Sankey surpassed 100 yards rushing for the seventh time this season. Tight end Austin Seferian-Jenkins recorded a season-high 62 receiving yards, and coach Steve Sarkisian indicated the team will look to get the preseason All-American more involved this week. Safety Sean Parker has a team-high four interceptions for the Huskies, who rank second in the Pac-12 in pass defense.

ABOUT UCLA (7-2, 4-2): The Huskies’ secondary may want to be ready for quarterback Brett Hundley, who has thrown long touchdown passes early in the first quarter of the Bruins’ last two games. Hundley has completed 74 percent of his passes over the last three games, and is also been the team’s leading rusher over the past five games with 245 yards and four scores. The Bruins boast an embarrassment of riches at linebacker, where Jack joins Eric Kendricks, Anthony Barr and Jordan Zumwalt, who has 38 tackles over the last six games.

TRENDS:

* Under is 5-1 in the last six meetings.
* Huskies are 4-9 ATS in their last 13 meetings.
* Huskies are 5-1 ATS in their last six games in November.
* Over is 5-1 in Bruins last six Friday games.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. UCLA leads the series 38-30-2, and has won 11 of the last 14 matchups.

2. Washington has outscored its opponents 132-58 in the third quarter this season.

3. The Bruins are 14-0 when leading at the half under Mora.


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NCAAF

Friday, November 15

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Strong 'under' trend in recent Wash.-UCLA meetings
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UCLA (7-2 SU, 6-3 ATS) plays host to Washington (6-3 SU, 5-4 ATS) tonight, and in the last six meetings between these Pac-12 rivals, the under has gone 5-1.

This season, both teams field defenses in the top third of the Football Bowl Subdivision, with the Huskies allowing 21.8 ppg (26th) and the Bruins yielding 22.9 ppg (37th).


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[Udog]

Inside the stats: Incredible NFL non-conference trend

Each week we take a look inside the numbers, from both a statistical and a pointspread aspect, on the college football and NFL cards. Here are this week’s findings…

As The Noose Tightens

November is, unquestionably, the best time of the season for sports fans. The NFL enters its second-half race. College Football concludes with teams scurrying for bowl bids while the NBA and College Basketball tip off new campaigns. It’s also a great time for handicappers as value aplenty abounds.

Our focus in the world of College Football begins to center around postseason bowl games during turkey month. In particular, we like to zero in on undefeated teams at this stage of the season. That’s because the deeper they get into the season, the more pressure there is on them to remain unbeaten. As a result, the noose certainly gets tighter and tighter each week, especially when these perfect teams take to the road.

This is confirmed by the fact that, since 1980, undefeated College Football teams playing on the regular season road from Game Ten on out are 99-34-1 SU and 57-67-2 ATS. Hence, these teams tend to suffer their first loss of the season nearly one-third of the time. A warning signal has been sounded for Alabama and Ohio State this week.

Pair them up against an under the radar opponent who won 8 or fewer games last season and watch them immediately play down to the level of the opposition as they dip to 6-21 ATS. Bring these same guys in off a win of 20 or more points and they have a difficult time getting their head through the door, going just 3-19 ATS.

Both the Crimson Tide and the Buckeyes look to meet their financial maker this week.


Down The Stretch

Its stretch-run time in college football and with it a list of teams that have been either moneymakers or money breakers at this stage of the season.

From my powerful database, here is how various teams have fared of late from Game Ten out during the regular season heading in to this year. As usual, all results are ATS (Against The Spread) with a minimum five occurrences.

Best Dogs: Arizona 11-1, Boston College 7-1, Memphis 7-1, San Jose State 6-0, Virginia Tech 6-1 and West Virginia 9-1.

Worst Dogs: Air Force 0-8, Michigan 0-5-1, Middle Tennessee State 1-9, Oklahoma State 1-10-1 and Texas Tech 1-5.

Best Favorites: Arkansas 7-0, Arkansas State 5-0, Baylor 5-0, Kansas 6-1, Middle Tennessee State 9-1, Oregon State 5-1, Troy 7-0 and UCLA 5-1.

Worst Favorites: Arizona 1-11, Boise State 0-8, Florida State 1-6, Navy 0-5, Louisville 1-5, Oklahoma 1-5, UAB 1-5 and Utah 0-5.

Note: see our ‘Stat Of The Week’ below for the crème de la crème of this study.


Pennzoil Plays

Fading favorites who have lost the stats in each of their previous three games has proven to be a long-term winning investment.

These ‘leaking oil’ favorites now stand at 17-19 ATS overall this season, including 12-13 in CFB and 5-6 in the NFL.

According to our Midweek Alert football newsletter this week’s plays would be against Central Michigan, Colorado, Kent State and West Virginia on the college gridiron, along with Atlanta in the NFL.


Overwhelming

As we alluded to here last week, our NFL Totals Tipsheet reports OVER players have been taking down the cash in non-conference games this season.

After yet another unassailable 4-0 performance last week, non-conference games (AFC vs. NFC) are now 35-11 OVER this season, including a bookie busting 11-0 the last three weeks.

This week’s potential non-conference OVERS look to be: Lions vs. Steelers, Ravens vs. Bears, Cardinals vs. Jaguars and Patriots vs. Panthers.


Stat Of The Week

The underdog in Arizona Wildcats football games is 22-2 ATS from Game Ten out during the regular season.

[Udog]

NCAAF
Dunkel

Week 12

SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 16

Game 317-318: Miami (FL) at Duke (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami (FL) 86.798; Duke 95.755
Dunkel Line: Duke by 9; 67
Vegas Line: Miami (FL) by 3; 61 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Duke (+3); Over

Game 319-320: Indiana at Wisconsin (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 91.747; Wisconsin 110.646
Dunkel Line: Wisconsin by 19; 74
Vegas Line: Wisconsin by 22; 70
Dunkel Pick: Indiana (+22); Over

Game 321-322: Kentucky at Vanderbilt (12:21 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kentucky 81.195; Vanderbilt 99.071
Dunkel Line: Vanderbilt by 18; 47
Vegas Line: Vanderbilt by 12 1/2; 53
Dunkel Pick: Vanderbilt (-12 1/2); Under

Game 323-324: Houston at Louisville (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 97.509; Louisville 99.586
Dunkel Line: Louisville by 2; 64
Vegas Line: Louisville by 16; 57 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+16); Over

Game 325-326: Central Michigan at Western Michigan (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Central Michigan 72.863; Western Michigan 60.413
Dunkel Line: Central Michigan by 12 1/2; 46
Vegas Line: Central Michigan by 2 1/2; 53
Dunkel Pick: Central Michigan (-2 1/2); Under

Game 327-328: Maryland at Virginia Tech (12:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Maryland 78.374; Virginia Tech 99.087
Dunkel Line: Virginia Tech by 20 1/2; 37
Vegas Line: Virginia Tech by 14 1/2; 42
Dunkel Pick: Virginia Tech (-14 1/2); Under

Game 329-330: NC State at Boston College (12:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NC State 82.653; Boston College 83.398
Dunkel Line: Boston College by 1; 59
Vegas Line: Boston College by 7 1/2; 53 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NC State (+7 1/2); Over

Game 331-332: Cincinnati at Rutgers (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 84.825; Rutgers 82.425
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 2 1/2; 48
Vegas Line: Pick; 52
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati; Under

Game 333-334: North Carolina at Pittsburgh (12:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: North Carolina 93.725; Pittsburgh 87.000
Dunkel Line: North Carolina by 6 1/2; 58
Vegas Line: Pick; 53
Dunkel Pick: North Carolina; Over

Game 335-336: Central Florida at Temple (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Central Florida 100.394; Temple 76.622
Dunkel Line: Central Florida by 24; 50
Vegas Line: Central Florida by 16 1/2; 55 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Central Florida (-16 1/2); Under

Game 337-338: Purdue at Penn State (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Purdue 74.732; Penn State 89.482
Dunkel Line: Penn State by 15; 53
Vegas Line: Penn State by 21 1/2; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Purdue (+21 1/2); Over

Game 339-340: Florida at South Carolina (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Florida 87.716 South Carolina 107.763
Dunkel Line: South Carolina by 20; 35
Vegas Line: South Carolina by 13 1/2; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: South Carolina (-13 1/2); Under

Game 341-342: Michigan at Northwestern (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Michigan 98.296; Northwestern 90.005
Dunkel Line: Michigan by 8 1/2; 64
Vegas Line: Northwestern by 3; 53
Dunkel Pick: Michigan (+3); Over

Game 343-344: Syracuse at Florida State (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Syracuse 81.549; Florida State 127.734
Dunkel Line: Florida State by 46; 51
Vegas Line: Florida State by 38; 55
Dunkel Pick: Florida State (-38); Under

Game 345-346: Florida Atlantic at Southern Mississippi (12:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Florida Atlantic 72.064; Southern Mississippi 58.112
Dunkel Line: Florida Atlantic by 14; 53
Vegas Line: Florida Atlantic by 17; 49 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Southern Mississippi (+17); Over

Game 347-348: Akron at Massachusetts (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Akron 68.628; Massachusetts 65.056
Dunkel Line: Akron by 3 1/2; 52
Vegas Line: Akron by 7 1/2; 45
Dunkel Pick: Massachusetts (+7 1/2); Over

Game 349-350: UAB at East Carolina (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: UAB 60.816; East Carolina 93.163
Dunkel Line: East Carolina by 32 1/2; 60
Vegas Line: East Carolina by 26 1/2; 65 1/2
Dunkel Pick: East Carolina (-26 1/2); Under

Game 351-352: Connecticut at SMU (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Connecticut 64.415; SMU 84.385
Dunkel Line: SMU by 20; 54
Vegas Line: SMU by 14 1/2; 57
Dunkel Pick: SMU (-14 1/2); Under

Game 353-354: West Virginia at Kansas (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: West Virginia 83.777; Kansas 80.940
Dunkel Line: West Virginia by 3; 55
Vegas Line: West Virginia by 7; 50
Dunkel Pick: Kansas (+7); Over

Game 355-356: UL-Lafayette at Georgia State (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: UL-Lafayette 89.511; Georgia State 59.695
Dunkel Line: UL-Lafayette by 30; 54
Vegas Line: UL-Lafayette by 21; 59 1/2
Dunkel Pick: UL-Lafayette (-21); Under

Game 357-358: California at Colorado (5:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: California 79.334; Colorado 72.949
Dunkel Line: California by 6 1/2; 76
Vegas Line: Colorado by 3; 67
Dunkel Pick: California (+3); Over

Game 359-360: Texas Tech at Baylor (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas Tech 90.079; Baylor 124.026
Dunkel Line: Baylor by 34; 77
Vegas Line: Baylor by 26 1/2; 85
Dunkel Pick: Baylor (-26 1/2); Under

Game 361-362: Wyoming at Boise State (10:15 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Wyoming 73.351; Boise State 93.928
Dunkel Line: Boise State by 20 1/2; 74
Vegas Line: Boise State by 23 1/2; 68 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Wyoming (+23 1/2); Over

Game 363-364: Oregon State at Arizona State (9:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oregon State 94.751; Arizona State 115.666
Dunkel Line: Arizona State by 21; 61
Vegas Line: Arizona State by 13 1/2; 64 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona State (-13 1/2); Under

Game 365-366: Georgia at Auburn (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Georgia 99.133; Auburn 100.245
Dunkel Line: Auburn by 1; 67
Vegas Line: Auburn by 4; 62 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Georgia (+4); Over

Game 367-368: Oklahoma State at Texas (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oklahoma State 100.974; Texas 104.691
Dunkel Line: Texas by 4; 68
Vegas Line: Oklahoma State by 3; 63 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Texas (+3); Over

Game 369-370: Iowa State at Oklahoma (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Iowa State 74.251; Oklahoma 101.886
Dunkel Line: Oklahoma by 27 1/2; 47
Vegas Line: Oklahoma by 24; 50
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma (-24); Under

Game 371-372: Utah at Oregon (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Utah 92.943; Oregon 123.679
Dunkel Line: Oregon by 30 1/2; 50
Vegas Line: Oregon by 25; 64
Dunkel Pick: Oregon (-25); Under

Game 373-374: South Alabama at Navy (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: South Alabama 77.201; Navy 83.661
Dunkel Line: Navy by 6 1/2; 63
Vegas Line: Navy by 9; 57
Dunkel Pick: South Alabama (+9); Over

Game 375-376: Michigan State at Nebraska (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Michigan State 106.792; Nebraska 97.642
Dunkel Line: Michigan State by 9; 37
Vegas Line: Michigan State by 6 1/2; 42
Dunkel Pick: Michigan State (-6 1/2); Under

Game 377-378: Ohio State at Illinois (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Ohio State 105.892; Illinois 84.451
Dunkel Line: Ohio State by 21 1/2; 72
Vegas Line: Ohio State by 32 1/2; 67
Dunkel Pick: Illinois (+32 1/2); Over

Game 379-380: San Jose State at Nevada (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Jose State 78.764; Nevada 76.470
Dunkel Line: San Jose State by 2 1/2; 72
Vegas Line: San Jose State by 7 1/2; 66 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Nevada (+7 1/2); Over

Game 381-382: Alabama at Mississippi State (7:45 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Alabama 119.352; Mississippi State 91.462
Dunkel Line: Alabama by 28; 47
Vegas Line: Alabama by 24 1/2; 52 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Alabama (-24 1/2); Under

Game 383-384: Stanford at USC (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Stanford 108.977; USC 110.256
Dunkel Line: USC by 1 1/2; 52
Vegas Line: Stanford by 4; 46
Dunkel Pick: USC (+4); Over

Game 385-386: Colorado State at New Mexico (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado State 86.885; New Mexico 73.288
Dunkel Line: Colorado State by 13 1/2; 59
Vegas Line: Colorado State by 6 1/2; 64 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Colorado State (-6 1/2); Under

Game 387-388: Memphis at South Florida (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Memphis 76.092; South Florida 76.329
Dunkel Line: Even; 44
Vegas Line: Memphis by 1 1/2; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: South Florida (+1 1/2); Over

Game 389-390: Louisiana Tech at Rice (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Louisiana Tech 67.023; Rice 87.144
Dunkel Line: Rice by 20; 49
Vegas Line: Rice by 17; 52
Dunkel Pick: Rice (-17); Under

Game 391-392: TCU at Kansas State (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: TCU 85.341; Kansas State 105.918
Dunkel Line: Kansas State by 20 1/2; 42
Vegas Line: Kansas State by 10 1/2; 47
Dunkel Pick: Kansas State (-10 1/2); Under

Game 393-394: Troy at Mississippi (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Troy 74.711; Mississippi 101.307
Dunkel Line: Mississippi by 26 1/2; 72
Vegas Line: Mississippi by 29; 67 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Troy (+29); Over

Game 395-396: Texas State at Arkansas State (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas State 72.318; Arkansas State 76.301
Dunkel Line: Arkansas State by 4
Vegas Line: Arkansas State by 7 1/2;
Dunkel Pick: Texas State (+7 1/2);

Game 397-398: Florida International at UTEP (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Florida International 52.956; UTEP 64.177
Dunkel Line: UTEP by 11; 44
Vegas Line: UTEP by 6; 49
Dunkel Pick: UTEP (-6); Under

Game 399-400: Washington State at Arizona (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington State 87.768; Arizona 97.628
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 10; 72
Vegas Line: Arizona by 13; 66
Dunkel Pick: Washington State (+13); Over

Game 401-402: San Diego State at Hawaii (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego State 80.128; Hawaii 73.015
Dunkel Line: San Diego State by 7; 52
Vegas Line: San Diego State by 4 1/2; 57 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego State (-4 1/2); Under


OTHER MAJOR GAMES:

Game 441-442: Idaho State at BYU (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Idaho State 51.772; BYU 105.763
Dunkel Line: BYU by 54
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

[Udog]

NCAAF
Short Sheet

Week 12

Saturday, November 16

Miami Florida at Duke, 3:30 ET
Miami FL: 19-8 ATS when playing on a Saturday
Duke: 6-16 ATS after 3 or more consecutive wins against the spread

Indiana at Wisconsin, 12:00 ET
Indiana: 0-11 ATS after outrushing opponent by 200 or more yards last game
Wisconsin: 7-0 ATS in games played on turf

Houston at Louisville, 7:00 ET
Houston: 28-46 ATS in weeks 10 through 13
Louisville: 21-9 ATS in home games after scoring 31 points or more in 2 straight games

Cincinnati at Rutgers, 12:00 ET
Cincinnati: 6-0 ATS after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game
Rutgers: 7-18 ATS in home games after a game with a turnover margin of +2 or better

Purdue at Penn State, 12:00 ET
Purdue: 1-9 ATS off 1 or more straight overs
Penn State: 10-1 ATS at home after failing to cover the spread in 5 or 6 out of their last 7

Florida at South Carolina, 7:00 ET
Florida: 1-8 ATS off a loss against a conference rival
South Carolina: 20-8 OVER in home games after having won 2 out of their last 3

Michigan at Northwestern, 3:30 ET
Michigan: 1-10 ATS after having lost 3 out of their last 4
Northwestern: 11-2 ATS after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread

Syracuse at Florida State, 3:30 ET
Syracuse: 1-9 ATS off a win over a conference rival as an underdog of 6 or more points
Florida State: 9-1 ATS in home games after 7 or more consecutive straight up wins

West Virginia at Kansas, 12:00 ET
West Virginia: 16-6 ATS after 5 consecutive games where they forced 2 or more turnovers
Kansas: 5-21 ATS after allowing 31 points or more in 3 straight games

Texas Tech at Baylor, 7:00 ET
Texas Tech: 0-8 ATS after being outrushed by 125 or more yards last game
Baylor: 8-1 ATS after playing 3 straight conference games

Wyoming at Boise State, 10:15 ET
Wyoming: 25-42 ATS after scoring 14 points or less last game
Boise State: 19-7 ATS when the total is between 63.5 and 70

Georgia at Auburn, 3:30 ET
Georgia: 1-7 ATS when playing on a Saturday
Auburn: 7-1 ATS when playing with 6 or less days rest

Oklahoma State at Texas, 3:30 ET
Oklahoma State: 8-1 ATS off a win against a conference rival
Texas: 22-9 OVER after 6 or more consecutive straight up wins

Iowa State at Oklahoma, 12:00 ET
Iowa State: 4-15 ATS in road games off a close loss by 7 points or less to a conference rival
Oklahoma: 8-1 ATS when the total is between 49.5 and 56

Utah at Oregon, 4:00 ET
Utah: 53-31 ATS as an underdog
Oregon: 17-7 ATS after the first month of the season

South Alabama at Navy, 4:00 ET
South Alabama: 0-8 ATS after 2 consecutive games where they forced 1 or less turnovers
Navy: 33-18 ATS in games played on turf

Michigan State at Nebraska, 3:30 ET
Michigan State: 10-2 OVER in road games after covering the spread in 3 out of their last 4
Nebraska: 19-5 ATS in home games after a game with a turnover margin of -2 or worse

Ohio State at Illinois, 12:00 ET
Ohio State: 70-40 ATS off 1 or more consecutive unders
Illinois: 2-11 ATS against conference opponents

San Jose State at Nevada, 10:30 ET
San Jose State: 7-0 ATS in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest
Nevada: 4-13 ATS when playing with 6 or less days rest

Alabama at Mississippi State, 7:45 ET
Alabama: 12-3 ATS as a road favorite of 14.5 or more points
Mississippi St: 13-4 UNDER after allowing 475 or more total yards in their previous game

Stanford at USC, 8:00 ET
Stanford: 10-2 ATS in road games off 3 straight wins against conference rivals
USC: 24-11 UNDER after a game where they committed no turnovers

Louisiana Tech at Rice, 7:00 ET
Louisiana Tech: 6-18 ATS off a blowout win by 21 points or more over a conference rival
Rice: 15-5 ATS in home games after having won 2 out of their last 3

TCU at Kansas State, 3:30 ET
TCU: 1-7 ATS when playing with 6 or less days rest
Kansas State: 11-2 ATS after playing a conference game

Troy at Mississippi, 12:00 ET
Troy: 11-1 OVER against SEC opponents
Mississippi: 9-2 ATS after playing a game at home

San Diego State at Hawaii, 10:30 ET
San Diego State: 2-10 ATS in road games off an upset win as an underdog
Hawaii: 8-1 OVER in home games after playing their last game on the road

[Udog]

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 12

Saturday's games

Top 13 games

Duke is 7-2 and having a dream season, winning last five games since a 58-55 home loss to Pitt; they’re 3-2 SU at home, also losing 38-14 (+8) to Ga Tech; Blue Devils are 6-2 vs spread this year, 3-1 as an underdog- they’ve scored 35+ points in five of last six games. Miami won its last eight games with Duke, six by 10+ points; they’re 4-0 in Durham (2-2 vs spread); Hurricanes are 2-0 as a series favorite when spread was less than 17. Miami was 7-0 before losing to Florida State/Va Tech the last two weeks, giving up 83 points; ‘canes have two road wins, 49-21 (-16) at USF, 27-23 (-9) at North Carolina, and the loss at FSU- they’re 0-4 vs spread in last four games, 2-4 as a favorite this year. ACC home underdogs are 9-7 vs spread.

Houston’s only two losses are 47-46 (+9) at home to BYU, 19-14 (+12) at Central Florida last week; Cougars are 7-1 vs spread this season, 3-0 as underdogs- this is their third road game in four weeks and sixth road game this season. Since 2009, Houston is 6-3 as road underdogs, 2-0 this year (won 49-14 at Rutgers, +7). Louisville is 8-1, losing as a 14-point home favorite to UCF last month; Knights ran ball for 196 yards that game, only team to rush for 60+ yards vs Louisville in last six games. Cardinals are 1-4 vs spread in last five games, but scored 31+ points in each of their last three games. Every Louisville win this year is by 14+ points; they’re 9-12 as home favorites under Strong. AAC home favorites are 3-10 against spread this season.

Home side won seven of last eight Boston College-NC State games; Wolfpack lost last four visits here, losing by 4-32-20-20 points. Favorites are 5-3 in last eight series games. BC needs one more win to be bowl eligible; they won last two games, scoring 82 points. Eagles are 3-1 at home this year, losing only to Florida State, winning by 14-21-7 points. BC is 2-0 as a home favorite this year. NC State lost its last five games, all by 8+ points, after a 1-3 start; they can’t decide on a QB, scoring only 17.8 ppg during losing streak. Wolfpack is 0-1-1 as road dogs this year, losing away games by 15-32-18 points; they’re 1-2-1 overall as underdogs this season. ACC home favorites are 15-9 vs spread this season.

Cincinnati lost 20-3/10-3 to Rutgers the last two years, after stomping Scarlet Knights 69-38 three years ago; Bearcats had 157 combined rushing yards in those two losses, after having 295/168 in previous two series games. Cincy is 7-2 this year because their schedule is horrible; Bearcats won last four games, scoring 35.3 ppg since bizarre loss at a terrible USF team Oct 5. Three of last five Rutgers games were decided by 4 or less points; Knights are 3-1 at home, losing 49-14 to Houston three weeks ago. Underdogs are 6-1 vs spread in Rutgers games this season; Knights are 2-0 as a dog, 5-1 when they allow less than 49 points. AAC home underdogs are 4-3 against spread this season.

Pitt is 5-4 with three games left; they need this game or win at Carrier Dome next week to become bowl eligible, assuming they won’t beat Miami Nov 29. Panthers beat Notre Dame at home last week, their 4th home win in row since Florida State hammered them 41-13 in opener. Will Panthers get fat/happy after beating a mediocre Irish team? North Carolina won its last three games, covered last four; at 4-5, they still have shot at bowl (Belk Bowl in Charlotte?) if they can win two of last three. Backup QB Williams has energized offense with more running. Tar Heels are 1-3 on road (only win at NC State, which is a road trip, but a short bus ride, not a plane trip), losing by 17-8-10 points. ACC home teams are 25-16 against spread this season.

Florida is so banged up at QB that freshman Mornhinweg (son of Jets’ OC) is likely to get first college start here; Gators are 13-3 in last 16 series games, 1-2 in last three (261 or less TY in all three)- they beat Carolina 44-11 LY in odd game where total yardage was 191-183 SC, but Florida was +4 in turnovers. Gators split last four visits to Columbia; underdogs are 4-4 in Florida’s last eight visits here. 7-2 South Carolina had last week off and plays Coastal Carolina next, so they’re focused on avenging LY’s blowout loss; Gamecocks are 2-2 as home favorites this year, winning home games by 17-0-7-18 points. Florida lost its last four games (0-3-1 vs spread) by 11-19-3-17 points- they lost at home to Vandy last week for first time since 1945; they have to try and run ball to protect their young QB.

Michigan won seven of last eight games with Northwestern, with underdogs covering four of last five; in five of last seven meetings, total yardage was within 40 yards, so Fitzgerald has done excellent job evening talent level with league rivals. Wolverines won last four visits to Evanston, with all four wins by 12+ points, but they’re 1-3 in last four games overall and beat Indiana 63-47 for only win in that span- they scored total of 19 points in losing last two games. Wildcats have trouble finishing games; they’ve lost five games in row, last three all by 7 or less points. Northwestern is 0-5 this season when scoring less than 35 points, losing last two home games to Ohio State (40-30), Minnesota (20-17). Big Dozen home favorites are 12-8 vs spread.

Oregon State won four of last five games with Arizona State, in series where underdog covered four of last five meetings; Beavers lost six of last seven visits to Tempe, with five of six losses by 12+ points. Average total in last three series games: 58.7. ASU pulled game out at end last week in Utah, its fourth win in row since losing to Notre Dame in Dallas; Sun Devils are 3-1 as home favorites this year, winning by 2-21-41-29 points, scoring 50.3 ppg in those four games. Beavers had last week off after losing to Stanford/USC back/back; OSU is 4-0 on road this year, scoring 46.5 ppg and they were only favored in two of those four games. Pac-12 home favorites are 14-8 against the spread this season.

Georgia crushed Auburn 38-0/45-7 last two years, in series where Dawgs won six of last seven meetings (four of six wins by 24+ points) and favorites covered last four; Georgia won three of last four visits here, but 9-1 Tigers are having special season, winning last six games since 35-21 (+17) loss at LSU. Auburn scored 42 ppg in winning last five I-A games, three of which were on road, one at Texas A&M. Tigers are playing for 7th week in row, while Dawgs played I-AA team last week after beating Florida which followed a bye, so they should be getting some guys back. Georgia is 1-2 on road this year, with all three games decided by 4 or less points, with an average total of 65.3. SEC home favorites are 11-12 against the spread.

Texas won 13 of last 15 games with Oklahoma State, but lost last two played here (38-26/33-16), as road team won last four series games; favorites covered 10 of last 13 in series. State outgained Texas 576-440 LY but lost 41-36. Longhorns won last six games, scoring 30+ points every game; they’re 3-1 at home, with only loss to Ole Miss. Longhorns are 2-0 as underdogs this year, beating Oklahoma/TCU SU. OSU won its last five games, scoring 50.7 ppg in last three; they’re 3-1 on road, scoring 50+ at UTSA/Iowa State/Texas Tech, but losing 30-21 at West Virginia, their only loss this season. State covered its last four games; they’re 4-3 as a favorite this season. Big X home underdogs are 6-5 vs spread this year.

Nebraska won both its Big Dozen meetings with Michigan State, 28-24 LY in East Lansing, 24-3 here in ’11, but 8-1 Spartans won last five games, allowing total of nine points in last three, plus they had last week off after spanking rival Michigan 29-6 the week before. State covered four of last five games when favored; none of their eight wins was by less than 12 points. Cornhuskers won last two games by total of seven points, winning on Hail Mary on last play two weeks ago, then holding off impotent Michigan 17-13 last week, its first game as an underdog this year; Nebraska won four of last five games, is 4-1 at home, losing 41-21 to UCLA. Big Dozen home underdogs are 6-5 against the spread.

Stanford won its last four games with USC, with three of four wins by 7+ points; underdogs covered seven of last nine series games, winning three of last six SU. Cardinal won 55-21/56-48 in its last two visits to Coliseum; after scoring 31+ points in each of first five games this year, Cardinals scored 26 or less in its last four, getting upset 27-21 at Utah, its only loss in four road games (wins by 14-38-8 points). Stanford is 4-4 as a favorite this year. USC won its last three games, by 16-17-34 points; they’ve won last four home games since losing to Wazzu on Sept 7. Trojans held three of last four foes to 14 or less points; Cal scored more in 62-28 loss last week. Pas-12 home underdogs are 4-11 against the spread.

Little bit of sandwich game for Arizona, which lost tough 31-26 game to UCLA last week and has Oregon coming to town next week; Wildcats won their last five games with Washington State, last four by average score of 45-15. Coogs lost 48-7/48-20 in their last two visits to Tucson, where Wildcats are 2-1 as home favorites this year, beating UTSA 38-13, Utah 35-24. Wazzu started season strong but has now lost last three games, allowing 52-62-55 points; Coogs are 4-0 vs spread on road, winning at USC/Cal, losing by 7 at Auburn, 24 (+39) at Oregon, but they’ve given up 34-42 points in first half of last two games, giving up 665 rushing yards to Oregon/Arizona State. Pac-12 home favorites are 14-8 against the spread.

[Udog]

NCAAF

Saturday, November 16

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Saturday's NCAAF Top 25 betting cheat sheet: Afternoon action
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Ohio State Buckeyes at Illinois Fighting Illini (+32, 67)

Riding the longest winning streak in the nation, the Buckeyes are ranked No. 3 in the BCS standings and almost certainly cannot catch Alabama or Florida State unless one of those squads lose. Still, Ohio State is having a championship-caliber season that continued its last time out on Nov. 2 with a 56-0 thrashing of Purdue – a game that featured four passing touchdowns by Braxton Miller and three total TDs by his backup, Kenny Guiton.

The Illini might have a chance to snap their Big Ten losing streak next week at Purdue, but it seems unlikely that they will defeat the Buckeyes for the first time since 2007. If Illinois has any shot, it will need a repeat performance from Nathan Scheelhaase, who set career highs with 38 completions and 450 yards last week in a 52-35 defeat to Indiana. Illinois has allowed 34.7 points per game this season.

LINE: Illinois is a 32-point underdog, down from an opening of +33. The total is set at 67, up from 66.5.
WEATHER: There is a 47 percent chance of rain and wind blowing N across the length of the field at 15 mph.

TRENDS:

* Buckeyes are 4-0 ATS vs. teams with winning records.
* Fighting Illini are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games following a SU loss.
* Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings in Illinois.


Iowa State Cyclones at Oklahoma Sooners (-24, 50)

Iowa State coach Paul Rhoads said he would evaluate everything about his offense - ranked 113th out of 123 FBS teams in yardage - after the season. Freshman quarterback Grant Rohach will make his second straight start but Rhoads wouldn't say if quarterback Sam Richardson (thumb) would be used in running plays like in last week's 21-17 loss to Texas Christian.

Brennan Clay (557 yards, three touchdowns) and Damien Williams (425 yards, five scores) lead the ground game and Oklahoma is 60-1 under head coach Bob Stoops when rushing for more than 200 yards. Freshman linebacker Dominique Alexander has two double-digit tackling performances - including 11 tackles and a sack for a safety against Baylor - in four games since replacing injured Corey Nelson.

LINE: Oklahoma is a 24-point fave, a slight dip from its 24.5-point open. The total is set at 50.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-60s with a 24 percent chance of showers or thunderstorms.

TRENDS:

* Cyclones are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games vs. teams with winning records.
* Sooners are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games after scoring fewer than 20 points in their previous outing.
* Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings.


Central Florida Knights at Temple Owls (+16.5, 56.5)

UCF's Blake Bortles, ranked 10th in passing efficiency (164.1) among FBS quarterbacks, followed up a career-high four touchdown performance over Connecticut with his second-lowest yardage total of the season (210) against Houston, throwing a pick and failing to find the end zone. Wide receiver Breshad Perriman is expected to play against Temple after passing baseline testing following a concussion against the Cougars.

P.J. Walker has helped the Owls revive their offense since taking over as their starting quarterback. Temple, which averaged 15.8 points through its first five games, has seen that figure nearly double to 30.5 in Walker's four starts, with the freshman amassing 1,094 yards on 80-of-128 passing and 11 touchdowns. Linebacker Tyler Matakevich leads all AAC tacklers with 113 on the season.

LINE: Central Florida has held steady as a 16.5-point fave with the total up from 55 to 56.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-50s with partly cloudy skies.

TRENDS:

* Knights are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games on grass.
* Owls are 4-0 ATS in their last four conference games.
* Under is 4-1-1 in Temple's last six home games.


Indiana Hoosiers at Wisconsin Badgers (-24, 69.5)

The Hoosiers have the second best offense in the Big Ten behind Ohio State averaging 43.1 points and 527,1 yards per contest. Running backs Tevin Coleman (215), the Big Ten Offensive Player of the Week, and Stephen Houston (150) both rushed for over 100 yards for the second straight week. Quarterback Nate Sudfeld leads the Big Ten in passing touchdowns with 19.

The Badgers still have their sights set on a possible BCS bowl invite if they can win their final three games (Indiana, at Minnesota, Penn State) and get to 10 wins. Don't bet against them. Since 2006, the Badgers are 24-4 after Nov. 1 (excluding bowl games) and first-year head coach Gary Andersen has won 15 of his last 16 conference games dating back to his Utah State coaching days.

LINE: Wisconsin opened -20.5 but the line has since been bet up to -24. The total is down from 70 to 69.5.
WEATHER: There is an 86 percent chance of showers with wind blowing out of the southeast at 14 mph.

TRENDS:

* Hoosiers are 2-6 ATS in their last eight conference games.
* Badgers are 9-1-1 ATS in their last 11 games.
* Over is 11-1 in the last 12 meetings.


Michigan State Spartans at Nebraska Cornhuskers (+5.5, 42)

The Spartans are one of only two teams (Louisville) in the FBS to rank in the top five nationally in total defense, scoring defense, rushing defense and pass defense. Michigan State’s defense is allowing 3.47 yards per play and has yielded only 10 rushes of more than 10 yards – both of which are the lowest marks in the country.

The Cornhuskers held Michigan to minus-21 yards rushing and recorded a season-high seven sacks – including three by defensive end Randy Gregory – to boost their conference-leading total to 30. Gregory, who has notched seven of his Big Ten-best 7.5 sacks during league play, was named co-Defensive Player of the Week for his efforts against the Wolverines.

LINE: Michigan State opened -6.5 but has since been bet down to -5.5. The total is 42.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-60s with partly cloudy skies.

TRENDS:

* Spartans are 10-1-1 ATS in their last 12 road games.
* Cornhuskers are 18-4-2 ATS in their last 24 home games vs. teams with winning road records.
* Michigan State is 0-5 ATS in the last five meetings.


Miami Hurricanes at Duke Blue Devils (+3.5, 61)

The Hurricanes rushed for only 28 yards against Virginia Tech in their first game without standout running back Duke Johnson -- lost for the season with a broken right ankle. That must improve to give a struggling defense more of a break and allow the balance needed for quarterback Stephen Morris, who has 14 touchdown passes and 10 interceptions.

The Blue Devils need better play at quarterback from Anthony Boone and Brandon Connette, who have combined for 15 interceptions – seven the last two weeks by Boone. Whoever is under center will be looking for wide receiver Jamison Crowder, who is second in the ACC in catches per game (7.44) and is 97 shy of his second straight 1,000-yard campaign.

LINE: Miami has been installed as a 3.5-point fave with the total dipping a half-point to 61.
WEATHER: There will be cloudy skies with temperatures in the low-60s.

TRENDS:

* Hurricanes are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 road games.
* Blue Devils are 4-0 ATS in their last four conference games.
* Over is 11-3-1 in Duke's last 15 conference games.


Oklahoma State Cowboys at Texas Longhorns (+3, 62.5)

The Cowboys are set up nicely with an injury-depleted Texas squad on the road and home games against Baylor and rival Oklahoma finishing out the regular season. Head coach Mike Gundy’s squad handily beat Kansas last week, 42-6, as quarterback Clint Chelf passed for season highs of 265 yards and three touchdowns without a turnover.

The Longhorns were left for dead after falling to 1-2 in September but picked themselves back up while rallying behind embattled coach Mack Brown. Texas was already playing through injuries to quarterback David Ash and linebacker Jordan Hicks, but the two latest setbacks could hamper what had been a strong running game while making one of the team’s weaknesses — run defense — an even greater concern.

LINE: OSU has remained a 3-point fave with the total dropping from 63.5 to 62.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-70s with cloudy skies.

TRENDS:

* Cowboys are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games after allowing more than 200 rushing yards in their previous contest.
* Longhorns are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 home games vs. teams with winning road records.
* Under is 7-1 in Texas' last eight November games.


Syracuse Orange at Florida State Seminoles (-37.5, 55.5)

The Orange need one more win to become bowl eligible, but with zero wins over the Seminoles since 1966 and this year's edition looking better than ever, they will likely need to defeat Pittsburgh or Boston College later this month to reach the postseason. Syracuse got two rushing touchdowns and 118 yards from Jerome Smith in last week’s 20-3 triumph against Maryland, while its defense limited the Terrapins to 2.3 yards per carry and forced four turnovers.

The Seminoles clinched the ACC’s Atlantic Division title and a berth in the conference championship game with last week’s win over Wake Forest, a game in which the Seminoles forced seven turnovers, including two returned for scores in a span of 19 seconds. Winston appears destined to be a Heisman Trophy finalist, as the redshirt freshman has racked up 2,661 passing yards with 26 touchdowns on the season.

LINE: FSU opened at -38.5, but the line has been bet down by a point. The total is set at 55.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-60s with wind blowing across the width of the field at 6 mph.

TRENDS:

* Orange are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games.
* Seminoles are 7-1 ATS in their last eight games on grass.
* Over is 8-2-1 in Florida's last 11 home games.


Georgia Bulldogs at Auburn Tigers (-3.5, 64)

Injuries derailed the Bulldogs' high hopes entering the season, but they're inching closer to full strength. Most notably, star running back Todd Gurley (104.2 rushing yards per game) is back in the mix after missing three games with an ankle injury. Georgia's defense has been maligned but actually ranks 20th in the nation against the run (126 yards per game), presenting a favorable matchup against Auburn.

The Tigers' ascent has been spurred by the nation's No. 3 rushing attack at 320 yards per game, and it's not just one player leading it. Tre Mason ranks second in the league with 1,038 rushing yards to go with 16 rushing touchdowns, and quarterback Nick Marshall (734 yards, seven TDs) and running backs Cameron Artis-Payne (568 yards, five TDs) and Corey Grant (504 yards, four TDs) can also do damage on the ground.

LINE: Auburn has held steady as a 3.5-point fave, while the total has risen from 62.5 to 64.
WEATHER: Partly cloudy skies are in the forecast with temperatures in the low-70s.

TRENDS:

* Bulldogs are 0-6-1 ATS in their last seven games.
* Tigers are 5-0 ATS in their last five conference games.
* Over is 7-1 in Georgia's last eight games vs. teams with winning records.


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[Udog]

NCAAF

Saturday, November 16

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Saturday's NCAAF Top 25 betting cheat sheet: Evening action
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Utah Utes at Oregon Ducks (-26, 64.5)

The Utes have excelled at pressuring the quarterback as they lead the nation in sacks per game (3.67) and their 33 total sacks are second to Missouri’s 34. Defensive end/linebacker Trevor Reilly leads the squad in tackles (78), tackles for loss (13.5) and sacks (seven), and linebacker Jacoby Hale (6.5 sacks) has also been a force.

The Ducks likely had their national championship aspirations extinguished with the 26-20 loss to Stanford as they were stunningly blanked for three quarters before attempting to rally. The season-low output drops Oregon’s scoring average to 51.7 per game – third nationally – and the Ducks now need Stanford to stumble to have any chance of being the North’s representative in the Pac-12 title game.

LINE: Oregon opened as a 25-point fave, but the line has been bet up to -26. The total is currently 64.5.
WEATHER: Rain is in the forecast with temperatures in the low-40s.

TRENDS:

* Utes are 2-7 ATS in their last nine conference games.
* Ducks are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 games.
* Over is 13-3-1 in Oregon's last 17 home games vs. teams with losing road records.


Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. Baylor Bears (-27.5, 85)

Texas Tech, which has lost three straight after a 7-0 start, is averaging 37.8 points and 530.5 yards per game. The Red Raiders are coming off a 49-26 loss to Kansas State, and head coach Kliff Kingsbury isn't sure who will be his starting quarterback against the Bears. Baker Mayfield and Davis Webb, both freshmen, each have started five games.

There's no debate on who will start at quarterback for the Bears. Bryce Petty leads the nation in passing efficiency (210.6) and yards per completion (19.68) and has started popping up on some Heisman Trophy lists. But the Bears also can run the ball, as they're averaging 255 yards on the ground, and will be going up against a Texas Tech defense that surrendered 291 yards rushing in last week's loss to Kansas State.

LINE: Baylor is installed as a 27.5-point fave with the total set at a whopping 85.
WEATHER: N/A

TRENDS:

* Red Raiders are 0-4 ATS in their last four neutral-site games.
* Bears are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games after scoring 40 or more points in their previous contest.
* Over is 14-2 in Baylor's last 16 games following a SU win of more than 20 points.


Florida Gators at South Carolina Gamecocks (-12, 41.5)

A season that began with high expectations has fallen victim to the injury bug as the Gators have lost seven starters to season-ending injuries, including quarterback Jeff Driskel, running back Matt Jones and defensive tackle Dominique Easley. If Murphy can’t go because of the shoulder sprain, the job will belong to freshman Skyler Mornhinweg, who has yet to throw a collegiate pass.

The Gamecocks enter Saturday very much alive in the race for a berth in the SEC Championship game. South Carolina needs a win Saturday and for Georgia and Missouri to each just lose once to punch its ticket to Atlanta. The Gamecocks will look to lean on running back Mike Davis, who leads the SEC in rushing yards per game with 117.6.

LINE: South Carolina opened as a 13.5-point fave but is now -12. The total has held at 41.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-50s with cloudy skies.

TRENDS:

* Gators are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games following a bye week.
* Gamecocks are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 home games.
* The home team is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.


Houston Cougars at Louisville Cardinals (-15.5, 57.5)

The winner of this matchup and once-beaten Cincinnati likely will be the only teams with a chance to overtake Central Florida, which is unbeaten in conference play. The Cougars are a decided underdog on the road, despite losing at Central Florida by just five points last week. Freshman quarterback John O'Korn didn't play exceptionally well against the Knights, so as he goes, so does Houston.

Cardinals quarterback Teddy Bridgewater has played well in every game this season, and that's not likely to change against a Cougar defense ranked 30th in points allowed. Strong knows what his quarterback can do, but he believes there are similarities between what Central Florida and Houston do on offense. The Cougars lead the nation with a plus-21 turnover margin, while the Cardinals are second at plus-14.

LINE: Louisville is a 15.5-point favorite - down from an opening of -17 - while the total is holding at 57.5.
WEATHER: There is a 19 percent chance of showers in the forecast with temperatures in the high-50s.

TRENDS:

* Cougars are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games.
* Cardinals are 2-5 ATS in their last seven vs. teams with winning records.
* Under is 14-6 in Louisville's last 20 home games.


Alabama Crimson Tide at Mississippi State Bulldogs (+23.5, 52)

AJ McCarron has not been intercepted in his last 123 passing attempts; he owns the school record at 291 and is in the midst of his third streak of at least 100 consecutive passes without a turnover. Over the past seven contests, the Crimson Tide offense has outgained the opposition by 1,609 yards -- an average of 229.9 yards per game.

Safety Nickoe Whitley posted his 14th career interception against the Aggies, tying him for the most among active FBS players and leaving him two shy of matching the school record (Walt Harris, Johnthan Banks). Jameon Lewis, who has a team-high 39 catches, is the only player in the country with at least four receiving, three rushing and three passing touchdowns.

LINE: Alabama has seen the line dip from 24.5 to 23.5, with the total set at 52.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-60s with wind blowing across the width of the field at 10 mph.

TRENDS:

* Crimson Tide are 5-0 ATS in their last five conference games.
* Bulldogs are 1-4 ATS in their last five games on grass.
* Under is 5-0-1 in the last six meetings.


Stanford Cardinal at USC Trojans (+4, 46)

The Cardinal is ranked No. 4 in the BCS standings, but they’ll need help to land a spot in the national championship game. They certainly appeared worthy in their win over previously unbeaten Oregon, with the offensive line dominating the line of scrimmage and Tyler Gaffney rushing for 157 yards on 45 carries. Coach David Shaw indicated the offense will be more diversified against the Trojans.

Tailback Silas Redd is questionable after suffering a knee injury last week, so the Trojans will likely lean on Javorius Allen against Stanford, which leads the Pac-12 in run defense. Quarterback Cody Kessler has improved since Orgeron took over on Sept. 29, and he’s completed 82 percent of his passes over the last two games. The Trojans rank tied for third nationally in red zone defense.

LINE: Stanford opened at -3 but has seen the line bet up by a point. The total is set at 46.
WEATHER: Skies will be mostly cloudy with temperatures in the low-60s.

TRENDS:

* Cardinal are 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 road games vs. teams with winning home records.
* Trojans are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 games following a SU win.
* Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings at USC.


Oregon State Beavers at Arizona State Sun Devils (-14, 63.5)

Brandin Cooks has 91 receptions to tie the school mark shared by James Rodgers (2009) and Markus Wheaton (2012), and is nine away from becoming the fifth player in Pac-12 history to reach 100. Cooks has 1,344 yards and 14 touchdown receptions as a top-notch target for quarterback Sean Mannion, who leads the nation with 3,540 yards and is tied for second with 31 touchdowns.

Running back Marion Grice hasn’t scored a touchdown in back-to-back games after finding the end zone 18 times over the first seven games. Grice (12 rushing scores, six receiving) has teamed with multi-purpose quarterback Taylor Kelly (24 passing touchdowns, seven rushing) to fuel an offense averaging 43.7 points per game.

LINE: ASU has held steady as a 14-point fave, while the total has dropped one point to 63.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-60s under partly cloudy skies.

TRENDS:

* Beavers are 21-9-1 ATS in their last 31 road games.
* Sun Devils are 6-1 ATS in their last seven home games.
* Over is 17-5 in Arizona State's last 22 games following a SU win.


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[Udog]

NCAAF

Saturday, November 16

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Michigan State at Nebraska: What bettors need to know
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Michigan State Spartans at Nebraska Cornhuskers (+5.5, 42)

With its dominant defense, No. 16 Michigan State has climbed atop the Big Ten Legends Division in convincing fashion. In order to remain there, the Spartans must address the one riddle they have been unable to solve on Saturday when they travel to Lincoln to face Nebraska. Michigan State has held its last three opponents to a combined nine points, but is 0-7 all-time against the Cornhuskers – including losses in each of the two-plus seasons Nebraska has been a member of the Big Ten.

The Spartans – who lead the country in total defense, rushing defense and pass efficiency defense – have cruised through conference play thus far, winning each game by at least 14 points. Michigan State savored a well-timed bye week following its home victory over Michigan on Nov. 2. Nebraska also enters this contest with a win over the Wolverines and can pull into a first-place tie atop the division if it can continue its mastery of the Spartans.

TV: 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC/ESPN2.

LINE: The Spartans opened as 6.5-point faves and are now -5.5. The total has remained 42.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-60s with winds blowing across the field at 12 mph.

ABOUT MICHIGAN STATE (8-1, 5-0 Big Ten): The Spartans are one of only two teams (Louisville) in the FBS to rank in the top five nationally in total defense, scoring defense, rushing defense and pass defense. Michigan State’s defense is allowing 3.47 yards per play and has yielded only 10 rushes of more than 10 yards – both of which are the lowest marks in the country. The stellar defensive effort has contributed to the Spartans’ conference-best time of possession (34:32 per game), which also ranks second in FBS.

ABOUT NEBRASKA (7-2, 4-1): The Cornhuskers held Michigan to minus-21 yards rushing and recorded a season-high seven sacks – including three by defensive end Randy Gregory – to boost their conference-leading total to 30. Gregory, who has notched seven of his Big Ten-best 7.5 sacks during league play, was named co-Defensive Player of the Week for his efforts against the Wolverines. Coach Bo Pelini expressed doubt earlier this week when he was asked about injured quarterback Taylor Martinez (foot) returning to the field this season.

TRENDS:

* Spartans are 0-5 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Spartans are 10-1-1 ATS in their last 12 road games.
* Under is 4-1 in Cornhuskers last five games overall.
* Cornhuskers are 9-4-1 ATS in their last 14 home games.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Michigan State has held four of its opponents without a touchdown, including each of the last three.

2. Nebraska is 9-1 in Big Ten home games since joining the conference in 2011 and has won four of its last five home games against ranked opponents.

3. The Spartans’ 28-24 loss to the Cornhuskers last season marked the first time they had scored more than 14 in seven all-time meetings.


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[Udog]

NCAAF

Saturday, November 16

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Oklahoma State at Texas: What bettors need to know
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Oklahoma State Cowboys at Texas Longhorns (+3, 62.5)

Oklahoma State has a clear path the to Big 12 title and a spot in a BCS bowl game — it just needs to win three straight against three ranked teams. That all starts on Saturday, when the 10th-ranked Cowboys visit No. 24 Texas. The Longhorns bounced back from a pair of ugly losses early and are ripping through the Big 12 with six straight victories, putting themselves in position to take the conference by winning out as well.

Texas is sitting in first place in the Big 12, joining Baylor as the only teams remaining undefeated in conference play. Oklahoma State sits a game back, with the Bears looming on the schedule next week. The Longhorns barely survived with a 47-40 overtime victory at West Virginia last week but suffered a pair of crushing injuries in the win when running back Johnathan Gray (Achilles tendon) and defensive tackle Chris Watley (knee) were lost for the rest of the season.

TV: 3:30 p.m. ET, FOX.

LINE: Cowboys opened -3 while the total opened 63.5 and is down one point.

WEATHER: Wind will blow toward the N endzone at 13 mph. There is an 11 percent chance of rain.

ABOUT OKLAHOMA STATE (8-1, 5-1 Big 12): The Cowboys are set up nicely with an injury-depleted Texas squad on the road and home games against Baylor and rival Oklahoma finishing out the regular season. “You’re at that point in the season where you need to win one to get to stay in the race,” Oklahoma State coach Mike Gundy said. “If we wouldn’t have played well and beat Kansas then that would have been a big game. You have to continue to move forward. This will be a new challenge for us.” Gundy’s squad handily beat Kansas last week, 42-6, as quarterback Clint Chelf passed for season highs of 265 yards and three touchdowns without a turnover.

ABOUT TEXAS (7-2, 6-0): The Longhorns were left for dead after falling to 1-2 in September but picked themselves back up while rallying behind embattled coach Mack Brown. Texas was already playing through injuries to quarterback David Ash and linebacker Jordan Hicks, but the two latest setbacks could hamper what had been a strong running game while making one of the team’s weaknesses — run defense — an even greater concern. Texas ranks fourth in the Big 12 with an average of 197.3 rushing yards but sits eighth at stopping the run, surrendering 185.1 yards.

TRENDS:

* Favorite is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.
* Under is 3-0-1 in the last four meetings in Texas.
* Cowboys are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.
* Under is 8-3 in Longhorns last 11 conference games.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Texas is enjoying its longest winning streak since taking 17 straight from 2008-09.

2. The road team has taken each of the last four in the series, including a 38-26 victory for Oklahoma State in Texas on Oct. 15, 2011 — the Cowboys’ last trip.

3. Longhorns QB Case McCoy has thrown more interceptions (five) than touchdowns (four) over the last three games.


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[Udog]

NCAAF

Saturday, November 16

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Georgia bettors bleeding money, no thanks to defense
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Georgia (6-3 SU, 1-7-1 ATS) hasn't beaten the spread since its 41-30 victory at South Carolina on Sept. 7, going 0-6-1 ATS.

In that stretch, the Bulldogs have twice given up 31 points and twice given up 41 points, while only really holding down FCS victim Appalachian State last week in a 45-6 rout -- barely failing to cover as a 39.5-point chalk. The Bulldogs are at Auburn (9-1 SU, 8-2 ATS) on Saturday where they will be an underdog for the first time this season.


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[Udog]

NCAAF

Saturday, November 16

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Stanford paying off for bettors on the road
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Stanford (8-1 SU, 5-4 ATS) has been a road warrior against the spread the past few seasons, going 19-6-1 ATS in their last 26 on the highway. A trip to Southern Cal (7-3 SU, 5-5 ATS) is on tap Saturday night where Stanford is laying four points.

Look no further than the Cardinal defense to understand why. In its last 11 road games, spanning this season and 2012, Stanford has allowed an average of just 14.6 ppg on the road.


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