NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 9 (Thursday, October 31 - Monday, November 4)

[Udog]

NFL

Sunday, November 3

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Sunday's NFL Week 9 betting cheat sheet: Early action
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Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers (-9.5, 45)

The Carolina Panthers have surged above .500 for the first time since 2008 and aim for their fourth straight victory when they host the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday. The Panthers have won three straight by an average of 19.3 points to pull within two games of NFC South leader New Orleans. The defending champion Falcons have struggled to their worst start since 2007.

Carolina's offense has sprung to life the past three weeks, topping 30 points in each game while Cam Newton has posted a league-best 130.3 passer rating over that span. And there's more good news: it appears running back Jonathan Stewart will make his season debut. He practiced in full pads Wednesday for the first time in nearly a year and drew rave reviews from coaches and teammates.

LINE: Carolina opened as a 7.5-point favorite, but the line has jumped to 9.5. The total has risen from 43 to 45.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-50s with wind blowing diagonally out of the N at 7 mph.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Falcons (+3.0) + Panthers (-1.0) + home field (-3.0) = Carolina -7

TRENDS:

* Falcons are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games.
* Panthers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games against teams with losing records.
* Over is 12-2-2 in Carolina's last 16 games vs. the NFC South.


Minnesota Vikings at Dallas Cowboys (-10, 48)

Minnesota has struggled on defense for most of the season - but the majority of the attention is being placed on the quarterback position, where Josh Freeman and Christian Ponder seem to be in a weekly competition for the starting job. Neither passer managed to take advantage of an opportunity to start, and Matt Cassel is the only quarterback on the roster with a win under his belt this season.

New Cowboys defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin has his unit last in the NFL while surrendering an average of 422.5 yards. Dallas already allowed four different quarterbacks to pass for over 400 yards and was burned for the second-highest receiving total in NFL history when Calvin Johnson piled up 329 yards last week. The Cowboys surrendered 623 total yards at Detroit last week, with the last 80 coming in the final 50 seconds.

LINE: Dallas is installed as a 10-point favorite after opening at -10.5. The total has risen from 47 to 48.
WEATHER: N/A
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Vikings (+7.5) + Cowboys (-3.5) + home field (-3.0) = Dallas -15

TRENDS:

* Vikings are 1-5 ATS in their last six games against the NFC.
* Cowboys are 5-0 in their last five games on Fieldturf.
* The favorite is 9-0 ATS in the last nine meetings.


New Orleans Saints at New York Jets (+6.5, 45.5)

Drew Brees is having another stellar season as he leads the NFC with 19 touchdown tosses and a 109.2 passer rating while ranking second with 2,290 yards passing. The former Super Bowl MVP is coming off a victory over Buffalo in which he threw for 332 yards and five scores, marking the NFL-record eighth time he's had five touchdowns passes.

Jets rookie Geno Smith has shown signs of being a solid NFL quarterback, he'll need to cut down on mistakes if he hopes to earn that distinction. Smith has thrown 13 interceptions, the third-highest total in the league, and been sacked 28 times - second to Miami's Ryan Tannehill (32). Smith has thrown seven touchdown passes and four interceptions in the team's victories compared to one TD and nine picks in the losses.

LINE: The Jets opened the week as a 4.5-point dog, but the line has since jumped to 6.5. The total is 45.5..
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-50s with wind blowing diagonally out of the NW at 12 mph.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Saints (-6.0) + Jets (+3.5) - home field (-3.0) = Jets +6.5

TRENDS:

* Saints are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 November games.
* Jets are 4-0 ATS in their last four games after scoring fewer than 15 points in their previous encounter.
* Over is 5-1 in New York's last six games.


Tennessee Titans at St. Louis Rams (+1, 39.5)

Quarterback Jake Locker (hip, knee) got some well-needed rest with Tennessee on a bye last weekend and has a solid 8-to-1 touchdowns-to-interceptions rate. Locker missed two games before passing for 326 yards and two scores in a loss to San Francisco on Oct. 20 prior to the break. Running back Chris Johnson is struggling mightily with just 110 yards on 46 carries over the past four games.

Defensive end Robert Quinn is having a dominating campaign and ranks fourth in the NFL with 10 sacks. Quinn had three of the team’s seven sacks in the 14-9 loss to the Seahawks, a contest in which St. Louis allowed just 135 yards. Quarterback Kellen Clemens again starts for injured Sam Bradford after going 15-of-31 for 158 yards and two interceptions against Seattle in his 13th career start.

LINE: The Rams opened +3 and are now +1, with the total holding at 39.5.
WEATHER: N/A
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Titans (+1.0) - Rams (+6.5) - home field (-3.0) = Rams +2.5

TRENDS:

* Titans are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games against teams with losing records.
* Rams are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games following an SU loss.
* Over is 5-0 in St. Louis' last five home games against teams with losing road records.


Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills (+3.5, 39.5)

A tenacious defense and efficient offense have the Kansas City Chiefs off to their best start in 10 seasons. The Chiefs look to keep both in gear on Sunday and win their ninth straight contest to begin a campaign for the first time since 2003 when they visit the Buffalo Bills. The aggressive defense boasts an NFL-best 36 sacks while holding opposing offenses to a league-low 12.3 points per game.

With running back C.J. Spiller's availability in limbo, veteran Fred Jackson will need to overcome the pains of a sprained MCL in an effort to keep Kansas City's pass rush at bay. Stevie Johnson has been nursing a hip flexor, but did his best to put it in his rear-view mirror following a seven-reception, 72-yard effort with a touchdown in Sunday's 35-17 setback to New Orleans.

LINE: The Bills opened +3 and are now +3.5. The total opened 41.5 and is down to 39.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-30s with a 32 percent chance of snow.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Chiefs (-4.5) + Bills (+4.5) - home field (-3.0) = Buffalo +6

TRENDS:

* Chiefs are 4-11 ATS against teams with losing records.
* Bills are 6-0 ATS in their last six games following a SU loss.
* Under is 7-1 in Kansas City's last eight November games.


San Diego Chargers at Washington Redskins (-1, 51)

Philip Rivers and the San Diego Chargers have to be salivating at the prospect of facing the Washington Redskins' defense this weekend. The Chargers travel across the country looking for their first three-game winning streak since 2011 when the teams match up on Sunday. The Redskins, meanwhile, are allowing 32.7 points per game - second-worst in the NFL - and have yielded 39 points per game over their last three contests.

Rivers' 15 touchdown passes have gone to six different receivers, with Eddie Royal leading the way with six scores and tight end Antonio Gates (497 yards, two TDs) on pace to lead the team in receiving yards for the first time since 2010. Even running back Ryan Mathews, once considered a first-round bust, is starting to become a force, having rushed for more than 100 yards in back-to-back games.

LINE: This opened as a Pick and is now Skins -1. The total has held firm at 51.
WEATHER: Skies will be clear with temperatures in the low-50s and wind blowing across the field at 13 mph.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Chargers (-1.5) + Washington (+3.0) - home field (-3.0) = Washington +1.5

TRENDS:

* Chargers are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven road games.
* Redskins are 6-2 ATS vs. teams with winning records.
* Over is 18-7-1 in San Diego's last 26 road games vs. teams with losing home records.


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[Udog]

NFL

Sunday, November 3

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Sunday's NFL Week 9 betting cheat sheet: Late action
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Philadelphia Eagles at Oakland Raiders (-1, 45)

Philadelphia doesn't know what it will get from Sunday starting quarterback Nick Foles - the NFC Offensive Player of the Week from Week 6 or the guy who was 11-of-29 for 80 yards before leaving with a concussion a week later against Dallas. Regardless of the quarterback situation, the Eagles can lean on the NFL's leading rusher in LeSean McCoy (733 yards).

Oakland still has plenty of work to do to get back in the playoff picture, but the offense is starting to take shape thanks to dynamic dual-threat quarterback Terrelle Pryor. Pryor leads the team - and all NFL quarterbacks - with 391 rushing yards and set a franchise record with a 93-yard touchdown run in last week's 21-18 win over Pittsburgh.

LINE: Oakland has held steady as a one-point favorite. The total is set at 45.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-60s with wind blowing across the field at 12 mph.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Eagles (+3.0) - Raiders (+5.0) + home field (-3.0) = Oakland -1

TRENDS:

* Eagles are 6-17-1 ATS in their last 24 games.
* Raiders are 1-7-1 ATS in their last nine games following an ATS win.
* Under is 8-0 in Oakland's last eight home games.


Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Seattle Seahawks (-14.5, 40)

Seattle struggled badly on offense in a 14-9 win over the St. Louis Rams on Monday night, totaling just 135 yards – 80 on one scoring play from Wilson to Golden Tate – and needing a game-ending goal-line stand to seal the victory. The Seahawks will be without receiver Sidney Rice, who suffered a season-ending knee injury in the contest.

Tampa Bay has been asking rookie quarterback Mike Glennon to throw a lot of passes with star running back Doug Martin (shoulder) sidelined and Schiano said the attack will become more balanced. Glennon has averaged 45.3 pass attempts in his first four starts while throwing for 997 yards and six touchdowns against just three interceptions.

LINE: The Seahawks opeend -17 but are now -14.5. The total is currently 40..
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-40s with a 43 percent chance of rain.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Buccaneers (+7.0) + Seahawks (-6.5) + home field (-3.0) = Seattle -16.5

TRENDS:

* Buccaneers are 0-4 ATS in their last four games vs. the NFC.
* Seahawks are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games on Fieldturf.
* Under is 7-1 in the last eight meetings.


Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns (+1, 41)

The Ravens put up 16.5 in their last two losses and are feeling the pressure to turn the season around. The lone bright spot for the Baltimore offense over the two games before the bye came from quarterback Joe Flacco, who passed for 557 yards and three touchdowns without an interception in the contests. Flacco is 11-0 against the Browns in his career with 13 touchdowns and five interceptions.

Cleveland will go with its sixth different quarterback in the 12 career games against Flacco, with Jason Campbell getting his first start in the series. Campbell posted solid numbers in his first start for the Browns last week, completing 22-of-36 passes for 293 yards and a pair of touchdowns in a 23-17 loss to the undefeated Kansas City Chiefs.

LINE: Cleveland has held steady as a one-point underdog. The total is 41, down from an open of 40.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-40s with cloudy skies.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Ravens (+1.0) - Browns (+4.0) + home field (-3.0) = even

TRENDS:

* Ravens are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following an ATS loss.
* Browns are 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs. the AFC North.
* Under is 6-0 in the last six meetings.


Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots (-7, 44)

Pittsburgh has failed to reach 20 points in five of its seven games and is tied for 27th in scoring with an average of 17.9 points a game. A patchwork offensive line that lost three more players to injury last week has hindered rookie Le'Veon Bell and the running game while Roethlisberger was sacked five times to boost his season total to 26.

Patriots quarterback Tom Brady is completing 55.7 percent of his passes and has a QB rating of 74.9 - both career lows - while tossing two TD passes and four interceptions in the past four games. Tight end Rob Gronkowski (hamstring) was limited in practice Wednesday, so the Patriots could lean on a running game that produced 152 yards last week.

LINE: The Patriots opened at -7. The total has held steady at 44.
WEATHER: Wind will blow diagonally out of the northwest at 12 mph with temperatures in the mid-30s.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Steelers (+3.5) + Patriots (-5.0) + home field (-3.0) = New England -11.5

TRENDS:

* Steelers are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games.
* Patriots are 1-5 ATS in their last six games vs. the AFC.
* Over is 7-2 in the last nine meetings.


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[Udog]

NFL

Sunday, November 3

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Vikings at Cowboys: What bettors need to know
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Minnesota Vikings at Dallas Cowboys (-10, 48)

The Dallas Cowboys learned last week that the prevent defense is anything but a certainty. The Cowboys will look to bounce back from a crushing loss and hang onto their lead in the NFC East when they host the struggling Minnesota Vikings on Sunday. The Vikings don’t have the type of explosive passing game that has doomed the Dallas defense and Adrian Peterson is averaging only 50 rushing yards in the last three games.

The Cowboys surrendered 623 total yards at Detroit last week, with the last 80 coming in the final 50 seconds to give the Lions an improbable 31-30 victory. Dallas wide receiver Dez Bryant got into a pair of shouting matches with teammates and coaches on the sidelines during that game but the team insists there are no hard feelings. “There’s not a guy that you love playing more with on Sundays than Dez Bryant,” Cowboys tight end Jason Witten told ESPN Dallas. “I feel like I have a lot of passion and I think he matches that passion.”

TV: 1 p.m. ET, FOX.

LINE: The Cowboys opened as 10.5-point faves and are now -10. The total opened 47 and is up to 48.

ABOUT THE VIKINGS (1-6): Minnesota’s defense is nearly as poor as the Cowboys but the majority of the attention is being placed on the quarterback position, where Josh Freeman and Christian Ponder seem to be in a weekly competition for the starting job. Neither passer managed to take advantage of an opportunity to start, but Ponder will be under center for the second straight week. The unsettled situation at quarterback and a nagging hamstring injury are keeping Peterson from replicating his historic 2012 campaign, when he amassed 2,097 yards on the ground.

ABOUT THE COWBOYS (4-4): Dallas could use some of Bryant’s "passion" on the defensive side of the ball, where new defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin has his unit last in the NFL while surrendering an average of 422.5 yards. The Cowboys have already allowed four different quarterbacks to pass for over 400 yards and were burned for the second-highest receiving total in NFL history when Calvin Johnson piled up 329 yards last week. Tony Romo is enjoying a solid season at quarterback but is not getting much help from the running game with DeMarco Murray (knee) sitting out the past two games after being limited to 14 carries or less in the previous three.

TRENDS:

* Favorite is 9-0 ATS in their last nine meetings.
* Under is 5-2 in the last seven meetings.
* Cowboys are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games.
* Over is 10-1 in Vikings last 11 games in Week 9.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Cowboys CB Morris Claiborne (hamstring) is not expected to play and S Barry Church (hamstring) is questionable.

2. Minnesota WR Greg Jennings (knee) sat out practice on Wednesday and is questionable.

3. Dallas is 11-0 when Murray gets 18 or more carries.


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[Udog]

NFL

Sunday, November 3

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Saints at Jets: What bettors need to know
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New Orleans Saints at New York Jets (+6.5, 45.5)

The Ryan twins continue their sibling rivalry Sunday when Rob and the New Orleans Saints visit Rex and the New York Jets. Rob Ryan, the Saints' defensive coordinator, has lost all of the previous four matchups in which the brothers were either coordinators or head coaches. He has a strong chance to notch his first victory as New Orleans' defense leads the NFC with 3.4 sacks per game and ranks fourth in the NFL in turnover differential with a plus-8 mark.

The Saints seek their second straight victory following a three-point loss at New England in Week 6. Rex Ryan's Jets have alternated wins and losses since the beginning of the season, scoring 27 or more points in three of their four triumphs while allowing at least 38 points in half of their four defeats. If the pattern continues, New York is ripe for a win after an embarrassing 49-9 setback at Cincinnati last week.

TV: 1 p.m. ET, FOX.

LINE: The Jets opened +4 and are now +6.5. The total opened 45.5.

ABOUT THE SAINTS (6-1): Drew Brees is having another stellar season as he leads the NFC with 19 touchdown tosses and a 109.2 passer rating while ranking second with 2,290 yards passing. The former Super Bowl MVP is coming off a victory over Buffalo in which he threw for 332 yards and five scores, marking the NFL-record eighth time he's had five TD passes. Brees' career numbers against the Jets are mediocre at best, however, as he is 2-2 with three touchdowns and five interceptions in four starts.

ABOUT THE JETS (4-4): While Geno Smith has shown signs of being a solid NFL quarterback, he'll need to cut down on mistakes if he hopes to earn that distinction. Smith has thrown 13 interceptions, the third-highest total in the league, and been sacked 28 times - second to Miami's Ryan Tannehill (32). Smith has thrown seven touchdown passes and four interceptions in the team's victories compared to one TD and nine picks in the losses.

TRENDS:

* Saints are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.
* Under is 4-0 in Saints last four games in Week 9.
* Over is 5-1 in Jets last six games overall.
* Jets are 1-5 ATS in their last six games in November.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. The Saints have won five of the last six meetings to improve t0 6-5 in the all-time series.

2. The clubs last met on Oct. 4, 2009, and haven't squared off in New York since Nov. 27, 2005.

3. New Orleans WR Marques Colston needs 119 yards to overtake Eric Martin (7,854) for first place on the franchise list.


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[Udog]

NFL betting weather report: Sunday's forecasts

Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers (-9.5, 45)
Temperatures will be in the low-60s with clear skies. Wind will blow across the field at 6 mph.

New Orleans Saints at New York Jets (+6.5, 45.5)
Wind will blow toward the S endzone at 13 mph. Temperatures will be in the mid-40s.

Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills (+3.5, 39.5)
Forecasts are calling for a 26 percent chance of rain. Temperatures will be in the mid-30s with wind blowing across the field at 7 mph.

San Diego Chargers at Washington Redskins (-1, 51)
Temperatures will be in the low-50s with wind blowing toward the SE endzone at 12 mph.

Philadelphia Eagles at Oakland Raiders (-1, 44.5)
Temperatures will be in the low-60s with clear skies.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Seattle Seahawks (-14.5, 41)
There is a 38 percent chance of rain in the forecast. Wind will blow across the field at 3 mph.

Baltimore Ravens at Cleveland Browns (+1, 41)
There is a 23 percent chance of rain in the forecast. Wind will blow toward the SW endzone at 6 mph.

Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots (-6, 44)
There is a 21 percent chance of rain in the forecast. Wind will blow toward the S endzone at 7 mph.

[Udog]

Essential betting tidbits for Week 9 of the NFL

- The Carolina Panthers have yet to allow a TD in the first half this season.

- The Over is 6-1-2 in the last nine meetings between those Panthers and their NFC South rivals Atlanta Falcons. Sunday's total is currently 45.

- Dallas Cowboys backers must be wondering aloud why DeMarco Murray doesn't get the ball more often. The 'Boys are 11-0 when Murray gets 18 carries or more.

- The Minnesota Vikings are 8-2 ATS in the last 10 meetings with the Cowboys. Sunday's line is currently Cowboys -10.

- The Cowboys, however, are tops in the league with a 7-1 ATS record this season.

- The Saints at Jets means Rob Ryan v Rex Ryan. Rex is 4-0 SU all time versus his brother.

- The Saints are also the top Covers consensus pick at 77.68 percent. They are 6.5-point faves Sunday.

- The Titans have lost three-straight games and have mustered just 15.7 points per game over that stretch.

- The Titans will be third opponent from the AFC St. Louis faced so far this season. The O/U is 2-0 in those two meetings with Sunday's total currently 39.5

- The Kansas City Chiefs are 0-9 ATS in their last nine meetings with teams from the AFC East. The Chiefs are 3.5-point road faves at Buffalo.

- The Bills have won 10 of the last 11 home games against the Chiefs - with the lone setback coming in 1986.

- The Washington Redskins host the San Diego Chargers in a non-conference game Sunday. The O/U went 3-0 last week in non-conference games and Sunday's total in this one is 51.

- Speaking of Overs and non-conference games - the Eagles have a 5-0 O/U record in their last five road games. They are in Oakland Sunday, where the total is currently 44.5.

- The Under is 7-1 in the last eight meetings between the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Seattle Seahawks. Sunday's total is currently 41.

- The Pittsburgh Steelers are just 3-9 ATS in their last 12 meetings with the New England Patriots. The Steelers are 6-point dogs.

- Pats QB Tom Brady has had great success versus the Steelers posting a 6-2 SU mark throughout his career.

- The Under in the Baltimore Ravens/Cleveland Browns game is the top Under consensus pick at 60.51. The total is currently 41.

- Also trending under are matchups between the Indianapolis Colts and Houston Texans. The Under is 5-0 in the last five meetings with a total of 44 currently tabbed on the Sunday night matchup.

- Despite the Under trend, Texans RB Arian Foster has had his way with Indy's rush D. Hehas averaged 150.4 yards rushing in five matchups against Indianapolis.

[Udog]

NFL betting: This week's Top 5 key injuries

Several teams could face depleted receiving corps Sunday as the NFL passes the halfway point of the regular season.

New Orleans and Atlanta are among the teams that may be affected, while it appears that Seattle will have to wait at least one more week for the debut of its marquee offseason acquisition. Meanwhile, Dallas could have a big day in the passing game at the expense of banged-up Minnesota secondary.

Here are five of the most notable Week 9 injuries:

Percy Harvin, WR, Seattle Seahawks (out, hip)

Optimism surged when word spread that Harvin may be available weeks ahead of schedule in his recovery from offseason hip surgery. But he suffered a setback during practice last week and has already been ruled out for Week 9. An MRI revealed no complications in the hip, but with the Seahawks rolling to the best record in the NFC, there's no pressure to bring Harvin back before he's completely healthy.

Seattle is listed as a whopping 14.5-point favorite for Sunday's game against visiting Tampa Bay. The total is set at 41.


Chris Cook, CB, and Jamarca Sanford, SS, Minnesota Vikings (out)

The Vikings face a major shortage in the backfield Sunday. Cook, the team's best pass defender, will miss Week 9 with a a hip injury, though he's expected back in Week 10. Sanford is dealing with a groin injury suffered in last week's loss to the Green Bay Packers. With free safety Harrison Smith already on the injured reserve/designated for return list with turf toe, Cowboys quarterback Tony Romo could have a field day Sunday.

Minnesota is installed as a 10-point underdog in Dallas, with the total set at 48.


Marques Colston, WR, New Orleans Saints (questionable, knee)

The lynchpin of the Saints' pass attack over the past seven-plus seasons, Colston has had a rough season to date and is considered a game-time decision for Sunday after practicing just once this week. The 30-year-old, who has undergone multiple microfracture surgeries, may need additional time to recover - and could be facing a reduction in snaps if he does play. Expect the rest of the New Orleans receiving corps to see plenty of targets if Colston sits.

New Orleans comes into Sunday's game against the New York Jets as 6.5-point favorites. The total is 45.5.


Roddy White, WR, Atlanta Falcons (questionable, hamstring/ankle)

White is running out of time to salvage what has been a lost season, but he may be ready to return this week against Carolina. The veteran wideout told reporters he's a game-time decision, but added with a smile that returning against the Panthers is "going to be important." The Falcons could certainly use his help with Julio Jones (foot) out for the season and Carolina boasting one of the most formidable pass defenses in football.

Atlanta finds itself as a 9.5-point underdog against the host Panthers, with the total currently 45.


Zac Stacy, RB, St. Louis Rams (questionable, ankle)

The Rams breathed a sigh of relief Thursday when Stacy returned to a full practice, though he's still listed as questionable. The rookie running back gashed the stout Seattle Seahawks defense for 134 yards in the Monday nighter before spraining his ankle late in the game. He's expected to play Sunday against the Tennessee Titans, and should see plenty of carries with backup Daryl Richardson a question mark with a foot injury.

St. Louis is a 1-point underdog at home against the Titans. The total is 39.5.

[Udog]

Where the action is: Sunday's NFL line moves

The Kansas City Chiefs look to improve their unbeaten record to 9-0 as they travel to upstate New York and visit the Buffalo Bills. The Chiefs have sputtered against AFC East opponents over the years, but quarterback troubles on the Bills could have the excellent Chiefs defense licking their respective chops.

We talk to sportsbooks about the action coming in on some of Sunday's matchups and where lines could close come kickoff:

New Orleans Saints at New York Jets - Open: +5, Move: +7

Barring a miraculous last-second Tom Brady touchdown pass, the Saints should be an undefeated team. They came out of their bye week with a huge 35-17 victory over the Buffalo Bills and have covered the spread in four of their last five games. The Saints come in dinged up, however, with Jimmy Graham and Marques Colston both carrying knocks, which means Drew Brees could have his work cut out for him.

"Monday morning, with 90 percent of the money backing the road favorite, we went to 6.5 and by midweek we were at 6.5 (-115)," says Michael Stewart, an oddsmaker with CarbonSports.ag. "We didn’t start writing action on the Jets until yesterday when we went to Saints -7 (-105) / Jets +7 (-115). I understand the bettors enthusiasm for the road favorite, but Drew Brees’ two favorite weapons, TE Graham and WR Colston are dinged up and the Jets defense is for real. I think they’re a live dog here."


Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills - Open: +3, Move: +4.5

The Chiefs are the last remaining unbeaten squad in the NFL but have failed to cover in their last two games as TD faves in both. The Chiefs don't fare well versus the AFC East for some reason. They are 1-13 SU in their last 14 versus the division and an alarming 0-9 ATS in the last nine matchups versus AFC East opponents. But QB issues in Buffalo could have the line on the move a little more. Thad Lewis has been downgraded to 'doubtful' which could open the door for Jeff Tuel.

"When Lewis was downgraded to doubtful we quickly went to -3.5 before settling on Chiefs -4," Stewart tells Covers. "I believe that once Lewis is ruled out for this game, we will go immediately to Chiefs -4.5 and I wouldn’t be surprised if we close higher."

[Udog]

NFL

Sunday, November 3

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Chargers at Redskins: What bettors need to know
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San Diego Chargers at Washington Redskins (-1, 51)

Philip Rivers and the San Diego Chargers have to be salivating at the prospect of facing the Washington Redskins' defense this weekend. The Chargers travel across the country looking for their first three-game winning streak since 2011 when the teams match up on Sunday. The Redskins, meanwhile, are allowing 32.7 points per game - second-worst in the NFL - and have yielded 39 points per game over their last three contests.

Prior to its bye week, San Diego gave up a total of 15 points in back-to-back wins over the Colts and Jaguars. Rivers continued his solid play in those contests and currently leads the NFL with a 73.9 completion percentage and ranks second with a 111.1 quarterback rating. "You can see just by watching him," said Washington coach Mike Shanahan, "that he's ... probably playing as good as anybody in the National Football League right now."

TV: 1 p.m. ET, CBS.

LINE: This game opened as a Pick, but Washington is now -1. The total opened at 51.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-50s with wind blowing toward the SE endzone at 12 mph.

ABOUT THE CHARGERS (4-3): Rivers' 15 touchdown passes have gone to six different receivers, with Eddie Royal leading the way with six scores and tight end Antonio Gates (497 yards, two TDs) on pace to lead the team in receiving yards for the first time since 2010. Even running back Ryan Mathews, once considered a first-round bust, is starting to become a force, having rushed for more than 100 yards in back-to-back games. But as productive as Rivers, Mathews and the San Diego offense have been of late, the key to the Chargers' recent success has been a defense that has not allowed an offensive touchdown in a franchise record-tying 11 straight quarters.

ABOUT THE REDSKINS (2-5): The Washington defense, ranked 29th in the NFL, allowed Peyton Manning to throw for 354 yards and four touchdowns last week and surrendered 38 unanswered points to the Broncos in a 45-21 loss. On the bright side, the Redskins have five defensive touchdowns this season - including last week's "pick-six" by DeAngelo Hall - and need only one defensive score to tie the franchise record. Second-year quarterback Robert Griffin III was just 15-of-30 for 132 yards with a touchdown and two interceptions against Denver and, to add injury to insult, he bruised his surgically repaired left knee in the fourth quarter, though he is expected to be fine for Sunday's game.

TRENDS:

* Favorite is 3-0-1 ATS in their last four meetings.
* Chargers are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven road games.
* Redskins are 0-5 ATS in their last five games in Week 9.
* Under is 7-2-1 in Redskins last 10 games in Week 9.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Redskins S Brandon Meriweather will be back in the lineup after serving a one-game suspension for issuing several illegal hits against Chicago.

2. Washington WR Pierre Garcon has at least five catches in every game this season, though he hasn't caught a TD in more than a month.

3. Chargers WR Keenan Allen has burst onto the scene the last three games, averaging 96.3 receiving yards and catching a touchdown in two of those contests.


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[Udog]

NFL

Monday, November 4

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Monday Night Football betting: Bears at Packers
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Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (-10.5, 51)

Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers are hitting their stride and seek their fifth consecutive victory when they face the visiting Chicago Bears on Monday night. The hot streak has propelled the Packers to the top of the NFC North, a half-game ahead of Detroit and one in front of the Bears, who have not won in Green Bay since December 2008. The Packers have dominated their oldest rival in recent years behind Rodgers, winning the past six matchups.

Chicago's task is that much more daunting with journeyman Josh McCown set to start in place of Jay Cutler, who suffered a groin injury in a 45-41 loss at Washington prior to last week's bye. McCown acquitted himself well in relief of Cutler, throwing for 204 yards and a touchdown, and did make a start in Green Bay in December 2011. The Bears also have major concerns on the other side of the ball, ranking 29th in the league in points allowed (29.4).

TV: 8:40 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE: Packers opened -11 and are now -10.5. The total opened 49.5 and is up to 51.

WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for a 27 percent chance of rain with wind blowing toward the N endzone at 10 mph.

ABOUT THE BEARS (4-3): McCown's last appearance against the Packers was his first start in four years after he was signed off waivers, so Chicago is confident he is more equipped to handle Sunday's assignment. "We're in a very fortunate position," Bears coach Marc Trestman said. "We've got a guy who has started in this league, has played, has a great grasp of our offense. I think that is clear." Running back Matt Forte rushed for 91 yards and a career-high three TDs versus Washington but has averaged only 44.4 yards rushing in the last five against the Packers.

ABOUT THE PACKERS (5-2): Rodgers has thrown 15 touchdowns against four interceptions and has received a boost from the running game, which produced 182 rushing yards in last week's 44-31 rout of Minnesota. Rookie Eddie Lacy had a career-high 29 carries and has toted the ball at least 22 times in the past four games while leading the league with 395 October rushing yards. "We're running the football a lot more effectively," Rodgers said Thursday. ''We're top five ... in throwing it and running it, which I'm sure hasn't happened here in a while."

TRENDS:

* Favorite is 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Under is 10-1 in the last 11 meetings.
* Bears are 0-5 ATS in their last five vs. NFC North.
* Under is 7-2 in Packers last nine vs. NFC North.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Rodgers is 5-0 lifetime at home against Chicago.

2. Bears LB Lance Briggs (shoulder), a seven-time Pro Bowler, is out, putting more pressure on a unit that is 27th in total defense at 391.0 yards per game allowed.

3. The teams are meeting for the 185th time in the regular season, with Chicago leading the series 91-87-6.


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[Udog]

NFL

Monday, November 4

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Tale of the Tape: Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers
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Two teams with division title aspirations meet at Lambeau Field on Monday night as the Green Bay Packers entertain the Chicago Bears in an NFC North battle.

The Packers have overcome a sluggish start to post four consecutive victories, including a wild 44-31 triumph over the host Minnesota Vikings last week. Chicago has dropped three of four following a season-opening three-game winning streak, and is coming off a much-needed bye.

Here's the breakdown in our betting tale of the tape:

Offense

Green Bay comes into the Monday nighter with one of the most formidable offensive attacks in the NFL. The Packers generate a whopping 438.9 yards per game - second only to Denver - and its 30.3 points-per-game average is third in the league. Green Bay has excelled in both the passing games and running games, averaging 297.4 yards per game through the air and an additional 141.4 on the ground.

Chicago has averaged a respectable 254.9 passing yards per game to date, but maintaining that pace may be difficult with starting quarterback Jay Cutler on the sidelines with a groin injury. Backup Jake McCown takes over an offense that sits second in the league in points per game at 30.4; McCown went 14-of-20 for 204 yards and a score against Washington. Chicago is averaging 112.9 rushing yards per contest, putting it in the middle of the pack.

Edge: Green Bay


Defense

Green Bay's pass defense has come together nicely after struggling through the first five weeks, limiting Cleveland's Brandon Weeden and Minnesota's Christian Ponder to a combined 294 yards in back-to-back victories. The Packers are still an ordinary pass-defending team overall, surrendering 12 touchdowns with just three interceptions. They've fared much better against the run, allowing the fewest yards on the ground in the league (585).

Chicago's defensive struggles were on display prior to its bye week, when it allowed the Redskins to compile 499 yards of offense - including an absurd 209 on the ground. The Bears are permitting opposing quarterbacks to rack up 274 passing yards per game and have a league-low nine sacks, though Chicago is among the league leaders with 10 interceptions. The Bears are allowing 117.3 rushing yards per contest, among the worst marks in the NFL.

Edge: Green Bay


Special Teams

Green Bay's return game is a contrast in results - averaging a league-worst 15.3 yards per kickoff return and 14.3 yards per punt return, one of the top five rates in the league. The Packers are allowing 32.3 yards per kickoff return - the most in the NFL - but are limiting opponents to 7.9 yards per punt return attempt. Green Bay kicker Mason Crosby has been dependable as always, making 17-of-19 field-goal attempts - including 7-of-9 from 40+ yards.

Chicago has the most kickoff return attempts in the league (30) and is averaging 24.7 yards; it has a 13.3-yard average on punt return attempts, and is one of seven teams with a punt-return touchdown. The Bears rank in the middle of the pack in kickoff return average against (24.9) but are near the bottom in punt return average against (15.2). Kicker Robbie Gould has made 12 of his 13 field-goal attempts, including all six from at least 40 yards out.

Edge: Chicago


Notable Quotable

"Last year, especially that second game, they rolled to me a lot and left Alshon (Jeffrey) one-on-one. I don't know if they're going to give Alshon one-on-ones this year. He's leading our team in receiving yards. He's been doing a lot of damage." - Bears wide receiver Brandon Marshall

"I guess you could say they get away with some stuff. It's part of football. In the interior, they hold all the time. Receivers push off all the time. And if you're a smart DB, you're going to grab all the time until they warn you and tell you not to do it anymore. They're going to push, I'm going to hold." - Packers cornerback Davon House


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