Announcement

**Udog** · 10-29-2013, 12:36 PM

NFL opening line report: Books limp into Week 9

Sportsbooks in Nevada limp into Week 9 of the NFL schedule after taking a beating from the betting public this Sunday.

NFL Week 8 favorites are 8-4 ATS, heading into the Monday nighter, serving books their worst week of the 2013 football season, according to media sources in Las Vegas. On top of that, the Over hit in eight of those 12 games, another popular parlay pick of the public.

“The public is 7-1 and going for the throat (Monday) with residual parlays overflowing to Seattle,” Jay Kornegay, sportsbook director at the LVH Superbook, told Matt Youmans of the Las Vegas Review-Journal.

That rough weekend may or may not prompt sportsbooks to inflate the spreads for Week 9’s action. Favorites are 63-53-3 (54.31%) on the year, with home chalk boasting a profitable 42-31-3 record (57.53%) heading into Monday.

“I preach it every week, ‘Jack up those favorites’,” Peter Korner, founder of the Nevada-based odds service The Sports Club, tells Covers. “I tell them every week, stick a number out there and if you start taking money on it, move it. Get to that number where you’re getting money on the underdog.”

“The thing is, a lot of places are too worried about getting middled. That rarely happens,” Korner says. “They’re afraid to put the favorites too high. They’re afraid of money on the underdog. I say get as much money on the underdog as you can before the weekend.”

Korner is pointing at next Monday’s game between the Chicago Bears and Green Bay Packers, which his oddsmakers sent out with Green Bay as an 11-point favorite.

Korner believes the injury to Chicago QB Jay Cutler will push this line higher and says books only have to look to this Monday’s game between Seattle and St. Louis as an example. That spread has climbed as high as Rams +14 with QB Sam Bradford out for the season.

“It’s basically a good team versus a bad team,” Korner says of the Green Bay-Chicago matchup. “On Monday, books should jack up the favorite and the total. Be higher than the guy next to you.”

San Diego Chargers at Washington Redskins (Pick, 51)

Robert Griffin III is the big “What if?” in this matchup. The Redskins QB left Sunday’s game against Denver with a knee injury in the fourth quarter but told the media his knee was fine and that the team held him out as a precaution.

Korner says his stable of oddsmakers brought spreads from Washington -2 to a pick’em to the table, settling on Redskins -2 with the expectation that RG3 would be in action versus San Diego.

“They’re playing much better and should be the favorite if he’s in,” Korner says of Griffin and the Redskins. “San Diego is a good team and we do respect them, but San Diego is in double trouble being in the AFC West, with Denver and Kansas City heading to the playoffs and everyone else - besides division leaders - fighting for one spot.”

Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans (+1, 45)

The Texans and Colts both come off a bye week, heading into this Sunday Night Football matchup. Korner says some of his oddsmakers had Houston as a favorite, however, they sent out Colts -1.

“I had to fight for this one,” he says. “I didn’t yield to the other guys.”

Korner is interested to see how Houston’s QB situation impacts the line. Matt Schaub is questionable to return from a leg injury in Week 9, leaving third-stringer Case Keenum as the starter. Keenum was impressive in his first NFL start versus Kansas City in Week 7, passing for 271 yards a score in a close loss to the Chiefs in Arrowhead Stadium.

“He looked good and confident,” Korner says of Keenum. “As bad as Schaub was playing, there’s not much of a drop off here. Now, perception wise there is. We did this (spread) with Keenum playing. We’ll see if the line moves if Schaub comes back.”

Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots (-7, 44)

A few years ago, this matchup would be a possible AFC Championship preview. But, with the Steelers stumbling and Tom Brady and the Patriots looking less like contenders every week, this AFC showdown has lost its luster.

Korner sent out this game at New England -7.5 but had some of his oddsmakers bring a spread as high as Patriots -9 to the table. Most books opened with the spread at a touchdown.

“This is now just an average game,” says Korner. “And where New England is playing better, it warrants more than a touchdown. It’s a boring game really. New England is the better team and I think (the spread) goes a little higher.”

**Udog** · 10-29-2013, 12:36 PM

NFL line watch: Wait out Seahawks' big spread

Spread to bet now

Atlanta Falcons (+9.5) at Carolina Panthers

If you don't mind laying about 20 cents extra, you can still get the Falcons at 9.5. The line is dropping though, with 9’s and 7.5’s starting to predominate.

How the mighty have fallen. After getting shellacked 27-13 by Arizona last weekend, Atlanta enters this game at just 2-5. The surging Panthers are second only to the Saints at 4-3 in the NFC South, winners of three straight.

Carolina has scored a combined 96 points on its recent three-game surge but bettors aren't being fooled, as those three victories have come against teams with a combined four wins between them (Vikings, Rams, Bucs).

If you think that Atlanta has something up its sleeve this weekend, likely best to jump on board as soon as possible.

Spread to wait on

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Seattle Seahawks (-18.5)

No team in the NFL enjoys a home-field advantage more than the Seahawks. The fans, dubbed the "12th Man", are so loud during the opposing teams' offensive series that they've consistently induced the most false starts penalties over the last half decade. Players are simply unable to hear their quarterback making the calls.

This line opened at a whopping 18.5 points, but is starting to drop already. Seattle is coming off back-to-back divisional road contests and barely escaped St. Louis with a win Monday night. With a game in Atlanta next week, bettors are wary of a letdown vs. the lowly Bucs, who have nothing to lose.

Look for the Seahawks to roll in this one, but wait a little closer to kickoff before getting down.

Total to watch

Indianapolis Colts at Houston Texans (45)

Over bettors have feasted on Sunday night's this season, so if you think the Colts and Texans are going to follow suit this weekend, you may want to wait a bit closer to kickoff. This line opened at 45, but for the most part 44.5 dominates the board.

While the Colts are coming off a big 39-33 win at home over the Broncos two weeks ago, they have gone 3-4 O/U this year, including 0-3 O/U on the road. Indianapolis may have a hard time duplicating its points output in Houston.

Despite their 2-5 record, the Texans are the highest-rated defensive unit in the league, giving up an average of just 267.7 total yards per game. And the Colts give up an average of just 18.7 points per game this year.

**Udog** · 10-29-2013, 12:38 PM

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 9

Thursday, October 31

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CINCINNATI (6 - 2) at MIAMI (3 - 4) - 10/31/2013, 8:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 19-35 ATS (-19.5 Units) in a home game where the total is between 38.5 and 42 points since 1992.
MIAMI is 50-72 ATS (-29.2 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 1-0 against the spread versus CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 1-0 straight up against CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Sunday, November 3

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ATLANTA (2 - 5) at CAROLINA (4 - 3) - 11/3/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 69-38 ATS (+27.2 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
ATLANTA is 28-14 ATS (+12.6 Units) in road games in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
CAROLINA is 2-2 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 3-1 straight up against CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MINNESOTA (1 - 6) at DALLAS (4 - 4) - 11/3/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in all games this season.
DALLAS is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in all lined games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

NEW ORLEANS (6 - 1) at NY JETS (4 - 4) - 11/3/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 21-7 ATS (+13.3 Units) against AFC East division opponents since 1992.
NEW ORLEANS is 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TENNESSEE (3 - 4) at ST LOUIS (3 - 4) - 11/3/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 40-21 ATS (+16.9 Units) in non-conference games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 131-167 ATS (-52.7 Units) in all games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 131-167 ATS (-52.7 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 15-30 ATS (-18.0 Units) in a home game where the total is between 42.5 and 45 points since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 64-93 ATS (-38.3 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 11-24 ATS (-15.4 Units) in home games in November games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

KANSAS CITY (8 - 0) at BUFFALO (3 - 5) - 11/3/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS CITY is 13-33 ATS (-23.3 Units) against AFC East division opponents since 1992.
BUFFALO is 35-20 ATS (+13.0 Units) in a home game where the total is between 38.5 and 42 points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
BUFFALO is 2-0 against the spread versus KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
BUFFALO is 2-0 straight up against KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SAN DIEGO (4 - 3) at WASHINGTON (2 - 5) - 11/3/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN DIEGO is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in road games against NFC East division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

PHILADELPHIA (3 - 5) at OAKLAND (3 - 4) - 11/3/2013, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 37-67 ATS (-36.7 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 1992.
OAKLAND is 31-66 ATS (-41.6 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TAMPA BAY (0 - 7) at SEATTLE (6 - 1) - 11/3/2013, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in home games in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 49-31 ATS (+14.9 Units) in November games since 1992.
SEATTLE is 5-17 ATS (-13.7 Units) when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

BALTIMORE (3 - 4) at CLEVELAND (3 - 5) - 11/3/2013, 4:25 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
BALTIMORE is 3-2 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 5-0 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
5 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

PITTSBURGH (2 - 5) at NEW ENGLAND (6 - 2) - 11/3/2013, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 155-117 ATS (+26.3 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) off a division game over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) off a win against a division rival over the last 3 seasons.
PITTSBURGH is 58-34 ATS (+20.6 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 1-0 against the spread versus NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 1-0 straight up against NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

INDIANAPOLIS (5 - 2) at HOUSTON (2 - 5) - 11/3/2013, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in home games against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
HOUSTON is 22-11 ATS (+9.9 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
HOUSTON is 36-18 ATS (+16.2 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992.
INDIANAPOLIS is 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) as a road favorite of 3 points or less since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 2-2 against the spread versus INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 2-2 straight up against INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
4 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Monday, November 4

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CHICAGO (4 - 3) at GREEN BAY (5 - 2) - 11/4/2013, 8:40 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points since 1992.
CHICAGO is 31-49 ATS (-22.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
CHICAGO is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) as a home favorite of 10.5 to 14 points over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) versus division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
GREEN BAY is 4-0 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY is 4-0 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

**Udog** · 10-29-2013, 12:39 PM

NFL

Week 9

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Thursday, October 31

8:25 PM
CINCINNATI vs. MIAMI
Cincinnati is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Cincinnati is 6-3 SU in its last 9 games on the road
Miami is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Miami's last 6 games

Sunday, November 3

1:00 PM
SAN DIEGO vs. WASHINGTON
The total has gone OVER in 4 of San Diego's last 6 games when playing Washington
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of San Diego's last 5 games
Washington is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games
Washington is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing San Diego

1:00 PM
TENNESSEE vs. ST. LOUIS
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tennessee's last 5 games when playing St. Louis
Tennessee is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing St. Louis
St. Louis is 2-4-1 SU in its last 7 games ,
St. Louis is 3-5-1 SU in its last 9 games ,at home

1:00 PM
NEW ORLEANS vs. NY JETS
New Orleans is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
New Orleans is 5-1 SU in their last 6 games when playing NY Jets
NY Jets are 1-4 SU in their last 5 games when playing at home against New Orleans
The total has gone OVER in 5 of the NY Jets last 6 games

1:00 PM
MINNESOTA vs. DALLAS
Minnesota is 3-7 ATS in its last 10 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Minnesota's last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Dallas's last 7 games when playing Minnesota
Dallas is 1-7 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Minnesota

1:00 PM
KANSAS CITY vs. BUFFALO
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Kansas City's last 6 games when playing on the road against Buffalo
Kansas City is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Buffalo
Buffalo is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Buffalo's last 7 games

1:00 PM
ATLANTA vs. CAROLINA
Atlanta is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Carolina
Atlanta is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
Carolina is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Atlanta
Carolina is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Atlanta

4:05 PM
TAMPA BAY vs. SEATTLE
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Tampa Bay's last 8 games when playing Seattle
Tampa Bay is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Seattle
Seattle is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Seattle's last 8 games when playing Tampa Bay

4:05 PM
PHILADELPHIA vs. OAKLAND
Philadelphia is 4-16 SU in its last 20 games
Philadelphia is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Oakland is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Oakland's last 7 games

4:25 PM
BALTIMORE vs. CLEVELAND
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Baltimore's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Baltimore's last 5 games when playing Cleveland
Cleveland is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Cleveland's last 6 games

4:25 PM
PITTSBURGH vs. NEW ENGLAND
Pittsburgh is 4-10-1 ATS in its last 15 games
Pittsburgh is 3-8 SU in its last 11 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of New England's last 9 games when playing Pittsburgh
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of New England's last 9 games

8:30 PM
INDIANAPOLIS vs. HOUSTON
Indianapolis is 6-14 SU in its last 20 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Indianapolis's last 5 games when playing Houston
Houston is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
Houston is 4-18 SU in its last 22 games when playing Indianapolis

Monday, November 4

8:40 PM
CHICAGO vs. GREEN BAY
Chicago is 1-6-1 ATS in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chicago's last 5 games when playing on the road against Green Bay
Green Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Chicago
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Green Bay's last 11 games when playing Chicago

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

**Udog** · 10-31-2013, 04:13 PM

NFL
Dunkel

Week 9

Cincinnati at Miami
The Bengals look to follow up their 49-9 win over the Jets and build on their 7-1 ATS record in their last 8 games after scoring more than 30 points in their previous game. Cincinnati is the pick (-2 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Bengals favored by 7. Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-2 1/2). Here are all of this week's picks.

THURSDAY, OCTOBER 31

Game 303-304: Cincinnati at Miami (8:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 139.022; Miami 131.940
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 7; 38
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 2 1/2; 42 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-2 1/2); Under

SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 3

Game 401-402: Atlanta at Carolina (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 127.435; Carolina 139.723
Dunkel Line: Carolina by 12 1/2; 47
Vegas Line: Carolina by 7 1/2; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Carolina (-7 1/2); Over

Game 403-404: Minnesota at Dallas (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 119.754; Dallas 139.883
Dunkel Line: Dallas by 20; 52
Vegas Line: Dallas by 10; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (-10); Over

Game 405-406: New Orleans at NY Jets (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 140.634; NY Jets 126.818
Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 14; 43
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 5 1/2; 45 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (-5 1/2); Under

Game 407-408: Tennessee at St. Louis (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 130.554; St. Louis 131.206
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 1; 43
Vegas Line: Tennessee by 3; 39 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+3); Over

Game 409-410: Kansas City at Buffalo (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City 138.402; Buffalo 131.608
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 7; 36
Vegas Line: Kansas City by 3; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-3); Under

Game 411-412: San Diego at Washington (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego 133.227; Washington 129.361
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 4; 55
Vegas Line: San Diego by 1; 51
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-1); Over

Game 413-414: Philadelphia at Oakland (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 125.408; Oakland 131.191
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 6; 41
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 415-416: Tampa Bay at Seattle (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 122.479; Seattle 141.973
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 19 1/2; 43
Vegas Line: Seattle by 16 1/2; 40
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-16 1/2); Over

Game 417-418: Baltimore at Cleveland (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore 135.014; Cleveland 130.867
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 4; 37
Vegas Line: Baltimore by 2 1/2; 41
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-2 1/2); Under

Game 419-420: Pittsburgh at New England (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 129.189; New England 141.125
Dunkel Line: New England by 12; 48
Vegas Line: New England by 7; 44
Dunkel Pick: New England (-7); Over

Game 421-422: Indianapolis at Houston (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indianapolis 139.088; Houston 126.179
Dunkel Line: Indianapolis by 13; 41
Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 2 1/2; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (-2 1/2); Under

MONDAY, NOVEMBER 4

Game 423-424: Chicago at Green Bay (8:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 129.477; Green Bay 142.590
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 13; 46
Vegas Line: Green Bay by 10 1/2; 49 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (-10 1/2); Under

**Udog** · 10-31-2013, 04:16 PM

NFL
Short Sheet

Week 9

Thursday, October 31

Cincinnati at Miami, 8:25 ET
Cincinnati: 9-1 ATS after a win by 10 or more points
Miami: 50-73 ATS in home games after the first month of the season

Sunday, November 3

Atlanta at Carolina, 1:00 ET
Atlanta: 10-2 ATS away off a road blowout loss by 14 points or more
Carolina: 19-5 Under off a road win against a division rival

Minnesota at Dallas, 1:00 ET
Minnesota: 11-4 under as dogs of 7 or more points
Dallas: 7-1 ATS favorites of 7 or more points

New Orleans at NY Jets, 1:00 ET
New Orleans: 10-2 ATS off a home win by 10 points or more
NY Jets: 1-10 ATS after playing over in their last game

Tennessee at St. Louis, 1:00 ET
Tennessee: 40-21 ATS in non-conference games
St. Louis: 9-1 Over against AFC South division opponents

Kansas City at Buffalo, 1:00 ET
Kansas City: 46-16 ATS off back-to-back home wins
Buffalo: 8-0 ATS off a road loss over

San Diego at Washington, 1:00 ET
San Diego: 10-2 ATS away against NFC East division opponents
Washington: 7-0 Over home vs. non-conference opponents

Philadelphia at Oakland, 4:05 ET
Philadelphia: 7-0 OVER after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games
Oakland: 3-14 ATS off an upset win as a home underdog

Tampa Bay at Seattle, 4:05 ET
Tamap Bay: 14-4 Over after playing a game at home
Seattle: 13-4 ATS in the second half of the season

Baltimore at Cleveland, 4:25 ET
Baltimore: 26-13 Over after a loss by 3 or less points
Cleveland: 16-6 ATS after SU loss and ATS win

Pittsburgh at New England, 4:25 ET
Pittsburgh: 19-9 Under after the first month of the season
New England: 10-2 ATS off a win against a division opponent

Indianapolis at Houston, 8:30 ET
Indianapolis: 12-4 ATS after the first month of the season
Houston: 13-3 OVER home after scoring 17 points or less in 2 straight games
NFL Betting Trends for Monday, November 4

Monday, November 4

Chicago at Green Bay, 8:40 ET
Chicago: 9-2 Over in road games
Green Bay: 6-0 ATS after allowing 30 points or more last game

**Udog** · 10-31-2013, 04:17 PM

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 9

Thursday's game

Bengals (6-2) @ Dolphins (3-4)—Miami lost 4th game in row last week in Foxboro, blowing 17-3 halftime lead; Fish lost last two home games by total of five points- their three home games this year were decided by total of nine points. Bengals won last four games (3-1 vs spread) but are 2-2 on road, with both wins by 27-24 score; three of their four road games were decided by exactly three points- they’re 0-2 as road favorites this year, after being 6-1-1 in 2011-12. Last three weeks, Cincy passing game averaged 7.4/10.4/10.4 yards/pass attempt- very explosive; they’ve scored eight TDs on last ten drives into red zone. This is Bengals first visit to Miami since ’07, second since ’91. AFC North non-divisional road favorites are 1-3 vs spread (11-9-1 in all games); AFC East teams are 7-2 in non-divisional home games, 4-1 as home dogs. Dolphins are 15-5 in this series, winning 11 of last 13 meetings- they won 17-13 at Cincinnati LY. Five of last six Miami games and last three Bengal games went over the total.

**Udog** · 10-31-2013, 04:18 PM

NFL

Thursday, October 31

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Thursday Night Football betting: Bengals at Dolphins
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Cincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins (+2.5, 43)

The Cincinnati Bengals are threatening to turn the AFC North into a runaway and will go for their fifth straight win when they visit the skidding Miami Dolphins on Thursday night. Cincinnati is coming off a superb performance, getting a career-high five touchdown passes from Andy Dalton in a 49-9 mauling of the New York Jets. "This is one of the first games we were able to finish because we jumped on them early," Bengals defensive end Carlos Dunlap said. "This was just a statement game."

Miami, meanwhile, is in the midst of a major spiral, dropping its fourth straight game after blowing a 14-point halftime lead in a 27-17 defeat at New England on Sunday. So instead of thrusting themselves back into the AFC East race, the Dolphins are approaching must-win territory if they hope to remain in postseason contention. "If we don’t get wins in these next (few) games, I feel like (the season) could slip away,” middle linebacker Dannell Ellerbe said.

TV: 8:25 p.m. ET, NFL Network.

LINE: This game opened at a pick'em and has since moved to Bengals -2.5. The total has climbed from 41.5 to 43.

WEATHER: Temperatures in the mid 70s with partly cloudy skies and winds blowing east at 7 mph.

COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Cincinnati (-4.0) + Miami (+3.0) + Home Field (-3.0) = Miami +4.0

ABOUT THE BENGALS (6-2, 5-2-1 ATS): One of Cincinnati's concerns has been its reliance on the combination of Dalton to standout wide receiver A.J. Green, but fellow wideout Marvin Jones went a long way to allaying those worries by hauling in a franchise-record four scoring catches in Sunday's onslaught. Dalton has rebounded from a pair of middling efforts against Cleveland and New England to throw for 1,034 yards with 11 TDs and two interceptions in his last three. The Bengals are also getting it done on defense, tied for fifth in the league with 18.0 points allowed per game, but will likely be without linebacker Rey Maualuga (knee) for at least three weeks.

ABOUT THE DOLPHINS (3-4, 3-4 ATS): Losing streak aside, Miami has to deal with additional fallout from Sunday's defeat. Wide receiver Brandon Gibson suffered a season-ending knee injury in in the loss and, following the game, center Mike Pouncey was served with a grand jury subpoena in connection with the murder investigation of former Patriots tight end Aaron Hernandez. The Dolphins churned out a season-high 156 yards rushing but still have not been able to protect quarterback Ryan Tannehill, who has been sacked a league-worst 32 times.

TRENDS:

* Bengals are 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Road team is 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Dolphins are 0-4 ATS in their last four games overall.
* Bengals are 12-4-1 ATS in their last 17 games overall.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. The away team has won the last three meetings, including the Dolphins' 17-13 win in Week 5 last season.

2. Cincinnati had two interception returns for TDs versus the Jets, the first time that's happened for the Bengals since December 1984.

3. Miami has had losing streaks of at least four games in five of the last 10 seasons.

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

**Udog** · 10-31-2013, 04:22 PM

NFL

Thursday, October 31

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tale of the Tape: Cincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The Cincinnati Bengals are one of the hottest teams in the NFL - and they'll look to keep the good times rolling at Raymond James Stadium Thursday.

Winners of four straight, the 6-2 Bengals visit Miami for what can only be described as a must-win game for the 3-4 Dolphins. Miami has dropped four straight games following a 3-0 start, and now has to contend with a Bengals team that lit up the New York Jets for 49 points in a one-sided victory last weekend.

Here's the breakdown in our betting tale of the tape:

Offense

The Bengals struggled with consistency on the offensive end through the first five weeks but have hit their stride of late, averaging better than 34 points over their last three games. Andy Dalton has the passing game ranked seventh in the NFL in yards per game (269.9) thanks to a 325-yard performance in Sunday's 40-point rout of the Jets. The running game remains a work in progress, ranked 15th in total yardage but just tied for 26th in yards per attempt (3.6).

Dolphins quarterback Ryan Tannehill has improved in his second season, vaulting Miami into the middle of the pack in passing yards per game (222). He has thrown 11 touchdown passes against nine interceptions, and has thrown for a score in every game this season. The two-headed rush attack of Lamar Miller and Daniel Thomas combined for 136 yards in last week's loss to New England but Miami averages just 89 per game - good for 23rd in the league.

Edge: Cincinnati

Defense

Cincinnati is building off the defensive momentum it created last year, ranked 11th in the NFL in passing yards against (225.3) and eighth in opposition rushing yards (97.3). The Bengals were at their stingiest against the Jets, limiting them to 147 yards in the air. One area Cincinnati has struggled is on third-down defense; the Bengals have allowed opposing teams to convert nearly 42 percent of their chances, the seventh-worst mark in the NFL.

Miami's pass defense has been slightly below average when it comes to yards per game allowed (245, 20th) but has surrendered just nine touchdowns while racking up eight interceptions. The Dolphins are also near the middle of the pack on the pass rush, accumulating 20 sacks for 125 yards. The Miami run defense has been somewhat successful to date, surrendering seven touchdowns but limiting opponents to 109.9 yards per game on 3.8 yards per carry.

Edge: Cincinnati

Special Teams

Cincinnati has had a decent return game in 2013, ranked seventh in kick-return average (26.3) and 21st in punt-return yardage (7.1). The Bengals are allowing opponents to gain 23.2 yards per kickoff return - the 12th-best mark in the NFL - and 7.3 yards per punt return. Veteran kicker Mike Nugent, who settled for seven extra points in last week's drubbing, is just 10-for-13 in field-goal attempts on the season.

While Miami's kick-return game is solid (24.9 ypa, 11th), it has managed to compile just 62 yards on 12 punt-return attempts for a 5.2 ypa average - good for 27th in the league. Miami is allowing more yards to opponents on both fronts - 26 yards per kickoff attempt and 9.1 yards per punt return. Kicker Caleb Sturgis has connected on just 11 of 15 field-goal chances in 2013, and missed a pair in last Sunday's loss to the Patriots.

Edge: Cincinnati

Notable Quotable

"It's a lot of fun to come out and play the way we've been doing. It has been a lot of fun for the fans and everybody that's in Cincinnati that is rooting for us. If we can keep delivering and we can keep playing like we have been, I think there will be a lot of happy people." - Dalton

"I understand that there are probably four right tackles in the NFL that can block Elvis Dumervil and Mario Williams consistently one-on-one. At this point in my career, it doesn't appear that I'm one of them." - Dolphins OL Tyson Clabo, who was benched last week after allowing eight sacks in six games

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

**Udog** · 10-31-2013, 04:22 PM

duplicate post.... having a bit of trouble posting

**Udog** · 11-01-2013, 09:52 AM

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 9

Falcons (2-5) @ Panthers (4-3)—Atlanta is in freefall, losing four of last five games, with only win over winless Bucs; they’ve run ball for less than 65 yards in each of last four games, and in last two, ran ball 32 times for 45 yards- with star WR Jones out for year, Ryan can’t win games throwing ball 61 times, like he did last week in Arizona. Carolina has yet to allow first half TD this season, outscoring foes 82-23 in first half; they’ve won last three games, all by 15+ points, outrushing those teams 362-186 with a +6 turnover margin, leading to field position advantages of 18-5-16 yards. Panthers won last two home games 38-0/30-15; they’ve only allowed two TD drives of less than 74 yards all year (both at Arizona in Week 5) as they’ve forced teams to drive whole field to score on them. Falcons have won five of last six series games; winning side scored 28+ points in last nine series games. Five of last six Atlanta games and last three Carolina games went over the total. NFL-wide, divisional home favorites are 16-8 vs spread so far this season.

Saints (6-1) @ Jets (4-4)—Ryan brothers square off here with Saints playing second game off their bye, while Jets have theirs after this game. Gang Green lost 49-9 last week in Cincy, allowing 10.4 yard/pass attempt, bad news vs Saint team that has averaged 7.6+ yards/pass attempt in three of last four games. Jets are -11 in turnovers in their four losses, -1 in wins, but they haven’t lost consecutive games yet this season (3-0 vs spread after loss)- they’re 3-1 at home, with three wins by total of 11 points and a 19-6 loss to Steelers. Saints are 2-1 on road, winning by 2-8 points, losing 30-27 in last minute at Foxboro; they’re 4-1 vs spread when favored this year. 16-14 as road favorite under Payton. NO has only four takeaways (even) in three road games, compared to 11 (+8) in Superdome. NFC South road teams are 2-7 vs spread out the division, 0-3 as road favorites; AFC East home teams are 7-2 outside the division, 4-1 as home dogs. Five of last six Jet games, three of last four Saint games went over the total.

Vikings (1-6) @ Cowboys (4-4)—Minnesota has to decide on a QB; all three are about the same, none are very good, but starting a different guy every week is self-defeating. Vikings won eight of last nine games with Dallas, but this is their first visit to Big D since ’07. Dallas is 4-0 vs spread at home this year, 3-0 as home favorites, winning by 5-24-15 points with the 51-48 loss to Denver- they’ve got 11 takeaways in last four games and are 4-0 vs spread when allowing less than 30 points. Cowboys allowed 30+ points in its last three losses; they were outgained 623-268 in Detroit last week, with Calvin Johnson catching 329 yards worth of passes, so how bad are Vikings to be double digit dog here? Minnesota is 0-3 since coming back from England, losing by 25-16-13 points, allowing 11 TDs on 29 drives, with only one takeaway (-4). NFC North teams are 3-6 vs spread in non-divisional road games, 1-3 as road dogs. Cowboys are 3-0 vs NFC East rivals, 1-4 vs everyone else, with only win 31-7 over the Rams. Six of seven Minnesota games went over the total.

Titans (3-4) @ Rams (3-4)—Jeff Fisher coached Oilers/Titans for 17 years, going 142-120, leading them to Super Bowl XXXIV, where they lost to …….the Rams. This is first time he faces his old team, six days after Rams’ game-winning drive died on 2-yard line on last play of a 14-9 home loss to first-place Seattle. Backup QB Clemens isn’t quite NFL-caliber (15-31/139 Monday), but defense played butts off vs Seattle, outgaining Seahawks 339-135 and St Louis ran ball for 200 yards, in OL’s best game in years. Rams are 4-3 as home underdog under Fisher; they’re 0-4 this year when scoring less than 27 points, but they’re 2-2 at home, beating Cards/Jags. Titans lost last three post-bye games by 12-34-5 points; they’re 1-2 on road but were underdog in all three- they turned ball over seven times in last three games (-3) after having zero turnovers in first four games (+9). Tennessee has zero giveaways in its three wins, seven in its losses- they’re 1-3 as road favorites under Munchak. Six of eight St Louis games, three of last four Titan games went over the total.

Chiefs (8-0) @ Bills (3-5)—Buffalo won five of last six series games, winning 41-7/35-17 last two years; Chiefs lost their last six visits here, with last win here in ’86, but they’re on a serious roll now, winning road games by 26-10-9 points. KC’s four wins when they have 3+ takeaways (+8) are all by 9+ points; only one of the four other wins was by more than six points (28-2 at Jaguars in Week 1). Buffalo split its four home games, which were decided by total of nine points; last week was first time this year they scored less than 20 points. Bills are 5-3 vs spread this year, an underdog in every game. Only two games they’ve been smoked this year were the two games they didn’t have a takeaway, vs Browns/Saints- they’ve forced 15 turnovers in their other six games. AFC West teams are 15-7 vs spread in non-divisional games, 4-2 as road favorites. AFC East home teams are 7-2 vs spread outside their division, 4-1 when home underdogs. Six of eight KC games stayed under the total; six of last seven Buffalo games went over.

Chargers (4-3) @ Redskins (2-5)—Cross country trip off bye week for San Diego club that didn’t allow offensive TD in its last two games (Colts/Jags); they didn’t turn ball over in either game, after -5 debacle in Sunday night loss at Oakland in Week 5. In its other six games combined, San Diego turned ball over five times, same as that night in Oakland. Not sure what to make of Washington after they gave up 38 unanswered points in second half at Mile High last week, after leading 21-7 early in third quarter; RGIII’s knee isn’t what it was LY, which hurts his mobility. Skins allowed 101 points in their first three home games (1-2), losing to Eagles/Lions, beating Bears (and backup QB McCown) 45-41 two weeks ago. Bolts won six of last nine post-bye games, but that was under different coaches- they won last three games vs Washington, after losing first six- they’ve lost four of five visits here, winning 23-17 in OT in ’05, their last visit here. Under is 3-1-1 in San Diego’s last five games. Bolts averaged 6.5+ yards/pass attempt in each of its last six games.

Eagles (2-6) @ Raiders (3-4)—Why is Philly favored on the road? Iggles are 3-1 away from home, with only loss 52-20 at Denver; they’ve won at Wash/NJ/ Tampa, teams with combined 6-17 record. Foles starts at QB after getting KO'd by Dallas two weeks ago. For first time since ’99, Eagles didn’t score an offensive TD in consecutive games, outscored 32-10 by two divisional rival in games where their starting QB got KO’d both games. Vick heard hamstring pop and Foles had concussion two weeks ago; wouldn’t feel good about laying points on road with rookie Barkley under center. Oakland grabbed quick 14-0 lead over Steelers last week and held on for 21-18 win, their third win in four home games this year (lost 24-14 to Redskins when Flynn (since released) started). Raiders allowed 21+ points in all four losses, 18 or less in their three wins. Philly lost three of last four series games, losing last three visits here by 24-31-4 points. NFC East non-divisional road teams are 2-9 SU this season (2-2 as road favorite); AFC West non-divisional underdogs are 6-1 vs spread. Under is 5-1-1 in Oakland’s games this season.

Buccaneers (0-7) @ Seahawks (7-1)—These teams came into NFL together in ’76, have met only 11 times (7-4 Seattle) with Bucs winning last three meetings by 10-17-20 points, but those Bucs ain’t these Bucs. Winless Tampa is 1-6 vs spread, 0-2 as road underdogs, losing 18-17 (-3) at Jets, 23-3 (+7) in Foxboro, 31-23 (+7) in Atlanta, while Seattle is 2-1 as home favorites, winning by 26-28-7 points- only home game Seattle didn’t cover was when Titans scored 90-yard TD on fumble off botched Seattle FG right before halftime. Short week for Hawks after escaping St Louis with 14-9 win after being outgained 339-135 by Rams and backup QB Clemens. Seattle has had 2+ takeaways in every game, is +9 for season, but even in last three games. Bucs allowed only 17.5 ppg in four pre-bye games, have given up 31 in all three post-bye games, losing by 11-8-18 points. NFC South non-divisional underdogs are 3-6 vs spread, 2-4 on road; NFC West favorites are 8-3, 5-2 at home. Last three Tampa games and four of last five Seattle games went over the total.

Ravens (3-4) @ Browns (3-5)—Baltimore won five in row and 10 of last 11 post-bye games (10-1 vs spread); they’ve won last 11 games in this rivalry by average score of 22-7, winning last five visits here, all by 10+ points. Ravens won 14-6 (-6.5) in first meeting this year in Week 2, after being down 6-0 at half- they were 8-16 on 3rd down in game where neither team gained 300 yards. Cleveland played better last week (L17-23 @ KC) in Campbell’s first ’13 start, but they’re 0-5 in games not started by Hoyer and are 1-2 at home, with only win over Bengals- in their last three games Brown opponents are 25-46 (54.3%) on 3rd down, as Cleveland defense is having trouble getting off field- they’ve been outscored 78-30 since halftime of Detroit game in Week 6. Last four Raven games were all decided by 3 or less points; Baltimore is 1-3 on road, with only win 26-23 at Miami. NFL-wide, divisional home underdogs are 7-5 vs spread. Five of last six Raven games stayed under total; three of last four Cleveland games went over.

Steelers (2-5) @ Patriots (6-2)—In its last four games, NE defense allowed average of 156.5 rushing yards/game, so they’re having trouble getting off field; foes are 19-38 on 3rd down against them last two weeks. Their 6-2 record is misleading; besides a 23-3 win over winless Tampa Bay, Patriots have three wins by 3 or less points, a 30-23 win at Altanta and last week’s 27-17 win, when they trailed Miami 17-3 at the half. NE is somehow 3-1 as home favorite this year though and 31-18-2 as a non-divisional home favorite since ’03 (2-0 this year). Steelers are 2-5 despite being favored in five of seven games; they’re 1-3 away from home, losing by 10-7-3 points, with win at the Jets- they allowed QB Pryor to run 93 yards on first play of game last week, longest run ever by a QB. Are they ready to play? Pitt lost by 10-17 in its two games as a dog. Pats won four of last six series games; this is Steelers’ first visit here in five years. AFC East non-divisional home teams are 7-2 vs spread, 3-1 when favored; AFC North dogs are 7-4-1 against spread, 4-2-1 on the road.

Colts (5-2) @ Texans (2-5)—Houston lost its last five games, with three losses by 21+ points; they’re going with UH alum Keenum at QB over healthy Schaub; Keenum gets 2nd NFL start after going 15-25/221 in 17-16 loss at Arrowhead two weeks ago, first time in six games Texans didn’t throw a pick-6- he had bye week to prepare full for Colts, team that is 18-4 vs Houston, but lost last three visits here by 10-27-12 points. Texans are -11 in turnovers, scoring 16 or less points in four of last five games. Colts won four of last five games, with only loss in primetime at San Diego; Indy won its other two road games easily, at SF/Jax. Houston’s only win in three home games was 30-24 in OT over Titans in Week 2; they’ve been outscored 70-16 in second half of last five games. With Cushing/ Daniels/Foster hurt, big part of Houston’s nucleus is out. Both teams are off their bye; Indy won seven of last eight post-bye games, Texans won last two. This will be first game WR Wayne has missed for Colts since 2001, but Indy scored 27+ points in four of last five games.

Bears (4-3) @ Packers (5-2)—Simply put, Green Bay is 4-0 vs spread when they have zero or one turnover, 0-3 if they have 2+. Bears have four takeaways in last three games, after having 14 in first four. Much like Texans, Chicago had bye week to get backup QB McCown ready for 2nd ’13 start, vs Packer squad that won eight of last nine series games, winning last six in row, all by 7+ points. Bears lost last five visits to Lambeau, with three of five by 13+. Bears won six of last seven post-bye games under Smith; they lost pre-bye game 45-41 at Washington, as McCown did well in relief of injured Cutler (leg) but if they gave up 45 and last-minute score to banged-up RGIII, what will well-balanced Pack attack score? Green Bay won its last four games; they’re 3-0 as home faves this year, winning by 38-20/22-9/31-13 scores at Lambeau. Pack converted 20 of last 31 third down plays, as Nelson emerges as Rodgers’ go-to guy in clutch. Six of seven Chicago games went over total; three of last four Packer games stayed under. NFL-wide, double digit favorites are 8-5 vs spread this year, 2-1 in divisional games.

**Udog** · 11-01-2013, 09:52 AM

Another mystery duplicate..... this is very hard to do.

**Udog** · 11-01-2013, 10:12 AM

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 9

Atlanta Falcons at Carolina Panthers (-9.5, 43.5)

Falcons’ injured LBs vs. Panthers’ QB Cam Newton

Those 9.5 points may seem like a lot, even for the fumbling Falcons, but you can point the finger at one man as to why the Panthers are near double-digit chalk hosting their NFC South rivals Sunday. Carolina QB Cam Newton has been a thorn in Atlanta’s side since coming into the league. Last year, the dual-threat QB scrambled for 202 yards and a TD in two meetings with the Falcons and is coming off 50-yard rushing day, with a score, in last Thursday’s win over Tampa Bay.

The Falcons defense is missing its two most important defensive cogs when facing a running threat like Newton and the Panthers’ read-option. Linebackers Sean Weatherspoon and Kroy Biermann – used best as a QB spy – are both on the shelf with injuries. Atlanta hasn’t faced many passers with legs like Cam, but did give up 21 yards on the ground to rookie QB Geno Smith in Week 5’s loss to the Jets.

Tennessee Titans at St. Louis Rams (+1, 39.5)

Titans’ coaching staff vs. Rams’ head coach Jeff Fisher

You don’t coach a franchise for 16 years and not pick up a little info along the way. Rams head coach Jeff Fisher squares off against his former team Sunday, a rematch of Super Bowl XXXIV. However, this time Fisher is on the other sideline. Fisher downplayed Week 9’s game, stating that he’s only coached 16 players on the Titans’ current roster. But Fisher does have some heavy-hitting intel on the Tennessee coaching staff.

Current Titans head coach Mike Munchak served under Fisher during his tenure in Tennessee, as did Titans offensive coordinator Dowell Loggain and senior defensive assistant Gregg Williams, who would have been a part of Fisher’s staff in St. Louis if not for the “Bounty-Gate” scandal. With a spread this tight, expect some gutsy calls from both coaching staffs. And Fisher could have the inside edge when it comes to those decisions.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Seattle Seahawks (-15.5, 40)

Bucs’ jumpy offense vs. Seahawks’ 12th Man

CenturyLink Field in Seattle has the reputation as the loudest and toughest venue in the NFL. Look no further than the Seahawks’ stunning 34-16-1 ATS record in their last 51 home games as evidence. “The 12th Man” recently set a record for loudest fans in sports – later broken by Chiefs fans in Arrowhead – and make it hard on even the most seasoned QB to communicate at the line of scrimmage, let alone a rookie like Tampa Bay QB Mike Glennon.

The Bucs already are among the most careless teams at the line, getting whistled for 10 false start penalties and five delay of game calls – both among the league leaders in those infractions. Tampa Bay also has been dinged for 11 offensive holding penalties, handing opponents a total of 108 yards. With Glennon’s play calls drowned out by the Seattle faithful, expect plenty of laundry on the field Sunday.

Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots (-6, 44)

Steelers’ slow starts vs. Patriots’ first-half play

A big part of Pittsburgh’s poor start to the season has been its poor start to games. The Steelers are averaging only 2.7 points in the opening quarter – getting outscored 54-19 in the first 15 minutes – and mustering just 7.7 points in the first half this season. Last week against Oakland, Pittsburgh dug itself a 14-0 hole and couldn’t climb out, eventually losing 21-18.

The Patriots offense is starting to gain traction, having averaged 28 points in their last three games. New England is scoring 13.7 points per first half in that span. Even more important is the Pats’ defense in the opening frames. They’ve limited opponents to only 3.8 points per first quarter and 8.4 points per first half – second lowest in the AFC. The Steelers may find themselves down again at the break Sunday afternoon.

**Udog** · 11-01-2013, 10:16 AM

NFL Betting Week 9 preview: Hot bets and moving odds

All odds current as of noon ET, Oct. 31

Trend setters

NFL betting trends come and go as bettors and oddsmakers play their weekly game of cat and mouse. It’s a fluid situation so you just don’t see prolonged trends very often. Bookies adjust to the games and the action they see and try to keep action relatively balanced.

That’s why when you see a trend hitting at almost a 60 percent clip over a full month, it’s worth looking into. Over the past 30 days, 59 percent of NFL games have played over their posted totals. We all know the NFL has been a passing league for a while, but that’s a significant trend especially when you consider the over is hitting at a 55 percent clip through the first eight weeks of the season.

Sure, Peyton Manning and the Broncos have a lot to do with it. They’ve played over in each of their eight games so far and bookies just can’t set totals high enough for them on a weekly basis. Lots of other teams are just hammering totals too though. Chicago and Minnesota have played over in six of seven games, St. Louis and Buffalo have the over at 6-2, while Miami and Atlanta have seen five of their seven games check in above the total.

Will this even out? Sure, with winter on its way, over time it will even out. But for now, it’s something to keep in mind as you go through Week 9’s odds.

Movers and shakers

The Miami Dolphins opened as 1.5-point home underdogs as they get set to host the Cincinnati Bengals on Thursday Night football, but bettors are all over the Bengals. After putting up 103 points over the last three weeks (and seeing the over go 3-0), Cincinnati is now a 3-point favorite (-125) at Sports Interaction. Right now, about 87 percent of the action is on Cincy.

Another home team that isn’t seeing any love is the New York Jets. They started off as 4.5-point home underdogs for their Week 9 matchup with the Saints but are now at +6 with even more heavy action coming in on New Orleans. This line could move to a touchdown by kickoff.

New England’s matchup with the Steelers will be one to keep a close eye on. The Pats opened as 6.5-point favorites but moved to -7 shortly after. Now New England, which is coming off a 10-point win over Miami, is holding as a 6-point favorite.

Hot bets

The 8-0 Kansas City Chiefs are seeing 86 percent of Sports Interaction’s action as they get set to visit the Buffalo Bills as 3-point favorites (-120).

About 92 percent of bettors are backing the Indianapolis Colts this week. Indy is a 2.5-point favorite (-120) at Houston.

Announcement

NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 9 (Thursday, October 31 - Monday, November 4)

NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 9 (Thursday, October 31 - Monday, November 4)

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment

Comment