The Bum's November's College Football POD's+Trends+Stats+News !

[StarDust Bum]

Early Game POD'S

Saturday, November 23

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Michigan State - 12:00 PM ET Michigan State -6 500 POD # 1
Northwestern - Under 41 500

Memphis - 12:00 PM ET Memphis +23.5 500
Louisville - Under 43.5 500

Duke - 12:00 PM ET Wake Forest +6.5 500 POD # 2
Wake Forest - Under 49.5 500

Cincinnati - 12:00 PM ET Houston -2.5 500
Houston - Under 59 500

Michigan - 12:00 PM ET Iowa -6 500
Iowa - Under 45.5 500

Oklahoma - 12:00 PM ET Kansas State -5 500 POD # 3
Kansas State -

Virginia - 12:00 PM ET Miami -20.5 500
Miami -

Illinois - 12:00 PM ET Illinois -6.5 500 POD # 4
Purdue -

Mississippi State - 12:21 PM ET Arkansas +1 500
Arkansas -

East Carolina - 12:30 PM ET East Carolina -5.5 500 POD # 5
North Carolina State - Over 55 500

Pittsburgh - 12:30 PM ET Pittsburgh +1 500
Syracuse - Under 49 500

[StarDust Bum]

Early Game POD'S

Saturday, November 23

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Michigan State - 12:00 PM ET Michigan State -6 500 POD # 1
Northwestern - Under 41 500

Memphis - 12:00 PM ET Memphis +23.5 500
Louisville - Under 43.5 500

Duke - 12:00 PM ET Wake Forest +6.5 500 POD # 2
Wake Forest - Under 49.5 500

Cincinnati - 12:00 PM ET Houston -2.5 500
Houston - Under 59 500

Michigan - 12:00 PM ET Iowa -6 500
Iowa - Under 45.5 500

Oklahoma - 12:00 PM ET Kansas State -5 500 POD # 3
Kansas State -

Virginia - 12:00 PM ET Miami -20.5 500
Miami -

Illinois - 12:00 PM ET Illinois -6.5 500 POD # 4
Purdue -

Mississippi State - 12:21 PM ET Arkansas +1 500
Arkansas -

East Carolina - 12:30 PM ET East Carolina -5.5 500 POD # 5
North Carolina State - Over 55 500

Pittsburgh - 12:30 PM ET Pittsburgh +1 500
Syracuse - Under 49 500

[StarDust Bum]

Midday POD'S


Several # 1 PODS......LOVE THESE

Massachusetts - 1:00 PM ET Central Michigan -13 500
Central Michigan -

Bowling Green - 1:00 PM ET Bowling Green -26 500
Eastern Michigan -

Hawaii - 2:00 PM ET Wyoming -6 500
Wyoming -

Georgia State - 3:00 PM ET Arkansas State -24 500
Arkansas State -

New Mexico State - 3:00 PM ET Florida Atlantic -22 500 POD # 1 ON BOARD KAPT
Florida Atlantic -

Oregon - 3:30 PM ET Arizona +18.5 500
Arizona -

Idaho - 3:30 PM ET Florida State -57 500 POD # 1
Florida State -

Texas A&M - 3:30 PM ET Texas A&M +5.5 500
Louisiana State -

Boston College - 3:30 PM ET Boston College -1 500
Maryland -

Wisconsin - 3:30 PM ET Minnesota +16.5 500
Minnesota -

Indiana - 3:30 PM ET Indiana +34.5 500 POD # 1
Ohio State -

Nebraska - 3:30 PM ET Nebraska +1 500
Penn State -

Texas-San Antonio - 3:30 PM ET North Texas -7.5 500
North Texas -

Utah - 3:30 PM ET Washington State -1.5 500
Washington State -

Middle Tennessee - 3:30 PM ET Middle Tennessee -23.5 500 POD # 1
Southern Mississippi -

Brigham Young - 3:30 PM ET Brigham Young +1 500 POD # 1
Notre Dame -

Colorado State - 3:30 PM ET Utah State -11 500
Utah State -

Texas El Paso - 3:30 PM ET Tulane -16 500

[StarDust Bum]

California - 4:00 PM ET Stanford -32.5 500 POD # 2
Stanford -

New Mexico - 4:00 PM ET New Mexico +32.5 500
Fresno State -

Marshall - 6:00 PM ET Marshall -32.5 500 POD # 1

[Udog]

"Brigham Young +1 500 POD # 1"

I like these guys, too! Good luck today, Bum! Thanks!

[StarDust Bum]

Evening Pod's


UL Monroe - 7:00 PM ET South Alabama -3.5 500
South Alabama -

Arizona State - 7:00 PM ET Arizona State -3 500
UCLA -

Southern Methodist - 7:00 PM ET South Florida +5 500
South Florida -

Kentucky - 7:00 PM ET Georgia -26 500 POD # 2
Georgia -

Connecticut - 7:00 PM ET Temple -7 500 POD # 1
Temple -

Western Kentucky - 7:00 PM ET Texas State +5.5 500
Texas State -

Vanderbilt - 7:00 PM ET Tennessee -2.5 500
Tennessee -

Tulsa - 7:00 PM ET Tulsa -3 500
Louisiana Tech -

Missouri - 7:45 PM ET Missouri -1 500 POD # 1
Mississippi -

Kansas - 8:00 PM ET Kansas +4 500
Iowa State -

Baylor - 8:00 PM ET Baylor -7.5 500 POD # 1
Oklahoma State -

Southern California - 9:30 PM ET Southern California -21 500
Colorado -

Washington - 10:30 PM ET Oregon State +1.5 500 POD # 1
Oregon State -

Boise State - 10:30 PM ET Boise State -6.5 500
San Diego State -

[StarDust Bum]

College football odds: Week 14 opening line report

Thanksgiving weekend and football make a great American tradition. On the college gridiron, it’s a time when the turkeys are on the table, not on your television screen, with myriad big matchups, including many rivalries.

Perhaps the most noteworthy contest is Saturday’s Iron Bowl, with high stakes in both the Southeastern Conference and the Bowl Championship Series standings.

Top-ranked Alabama (11-0 SU, 6-4-1 ATS) makes the short road trip to face archrival and sixth-ranked Auburn (10-1 SU), which is tied for third nationally at the betting window with a stout 9-2 ATS record.

The Tigers have won six in a row SU and seven in a row ATS, and they’re coming off a bye following the absolutely stunning late touchdown that secured a 43-38 home win over Georgia as a 3-point favorite Nov. 16. The Crimson Tide also ostensibly had a bye this weekend, taking on FCS outfit Chattanooga on Saturday and rolling 49-0, though that only earned them a push, as they were laying 49.

Speaking of 49-0, that’s the exact score by which ‘Bama basted Auburn last year. With that in mind, Peter Korner – founder of Nevada-based odds service The Sports Club -- said while this year’s matchup looks great based on ranking and such a strong rivalry, it didn’t pencil out that way with his oddsmakers.

“It’s not a particularly good game. We all had Alabama between a 12 to 14-point favorite,” Korner said. “After seeing Oregon and Baylor fall this past week, we're pretty sure Alabama will be focused. We sent out Alabama -13. Offshores were at -10.5, but we had it higher before we saw their number and like it even better now. There is no way ‘Bama gets caught off guard.”


Texas Tech Red Raiders at Texas Longhorns (-6)

It’s not exactly Texas-Texas A&M, a rivalry that went bye-bye when the Aggies bolted for the Southeastern Conference after the 2011 season. But if you’ve had your fill of the NFL on Thanksgiving day and want to skip the Steelers-Ravens that evening, this could be an entertaining contest.

Texas Tech (7-4, 5-6 ATS) is coming off a bye and has the nation’s No. 1 passing attack at 400.2 ypg, helping the Aggies to an average of 37.5 ppg (21st). But the Red Raiders have had the bottom fall out since winning their first seven games, going 0-4 SU and ATS while allowing 50.5 ppg.

Texas (7-3, 5-5 ATS) also is coming off a bye, after its six-game win streak – which probably saved coach Mack Brown’s job – was snapped in a 38-13 blowout home loss to Oklahoma State.

“We had an odd range of numbers – as low as Texas -2 up to Texas -8, which I had personally,” Korner said. “I sent out Texas -6. This game has meaning only to Texas, and I didn't see how Tech was going to be motivated in this spot. The Longhorns need the win. I'm glad to see our opener is a lot higher than the offshores, but I did notice early money on Tech. That seems like a really strange move. I only see this line coming back up.”


Ohio State Buckeyes at Michigan (+13.5)

Even if nothing is on the line, this game is always huge. In this case, the ramifications for Ohio State are huge.

The Buckeyes (11-0, 6-4-1 ATS) have a shot at squeezing into the BCS Championship Game if they can remain unbeaten. Michigan (7-4 SU, 6-5 ATS) has no shot at reaching the Big Ten title game, but the Wolverines’ season would be deemed a full success if they beat the archrival Buckeyes.

Michigan is 1-8 SU and ATS in its last nine against Ohio State, winning 40-34 two years ago at the Big House but failing to cash as an 8.5-point chalk.

“Another double-digit favorite in which this plays into the favorite all the way,” Korner said. “Ohio State needs the game, while Michigan is playing for some obscure bowl game being played on a Tuesday night sometime in the future. There is no way Ohio State is distracted."

“Our range went from Ohio State -10.5 to -14.5, and we sent out -13.5. It looks like there was some early money on Michigan, but we're not going for that. Anyone hanging this line on the light side will pay for it come game time.”


UCLA Bruins at Southern California Trojans (-6)

Prior to this weekend, both these teams had a shot to reach the Pac-12 title game. But Arizona State’s victory over UCLA on Saturday knocked both the Bruins and USC out of contention, so they’ll play this one for pride.

Southern Cal (9-3, 6-6 ATS) has stunningly regained its form since firing Lane Kiffin, going on a 6-1 SU run (5-2 ATS), including a 47-29 victory at Colorado on Saturday as a 21-point favorite. UCLA (8-3 SU, 7-4 ATS) had won three in a row SU before the 38-33 loss to ASU as a 3-point home underdog.

“This is a good game, which we wouldn't have expected four weeks ago,” Korner said. “Four of my oddsmakers had this in the range of USC -3 to -5.5. I personally had -9. USC has been the nuts since their shakeup. I tempered my bad line to send out USC -6, while I stared at a -3.5 on the offshores. Both teams are having good seasons, but USC is winning games by an average of almost 17 points the past five contests. The only big game UCLA has had in the past five weeks was at home against Colorado. No big feat. I think this number climbs come game time.”

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF betting: Georgia QB Aaron Murray out for season

It looks like Aaron Murray's career with the Georgia Bulldogs has come to a premature end.

According to ESPN.com, the quarterback tore the ACL in his left knee in Saturday's 59-17 thumping of the Kentucky Wildcats.

Murray had a record-setting career in Athens and finishes as the SEC's all-time leading passer.

Georgia faces in-state rival Georgia Tech next week and Murray's absence will be significant to the spread.

"Murray is worth between three and four points depending on the competition," says Mike Perry, an oddsmaker with Sportsbook.ag. "Versus Georgia Tech he would be worth 3.5-points."

[StarDust Bum]

Bama, Auburn gear up for Top 5 matchup

November 24, 2013



AUBURN, Ala. (AP) - Alabama quarterback AJ McCarron insists Auburn is merely ''the next team in our way,'' whatever the Tigers' record.

Auburn H-back Jay Prosch says preparation for this Iron Bowl has felt like any other game so far.

The hundreds of RVs already parked down the street from Jordan-Hare Stadium a week before kickoff offered a different perspective. Business-as-usual denials aside, No. 1 Alabama and No. 4 Auburn are preparing for perhaps the biggest game ever in this rabid in-state rivalry on Saturday.

The teams that have hoarded the last four national titles have only met once before when both were ranked in the Top 5. No. 3 Alabama beat No. 5 Auburn and Heisman Trophy-winning quarterback Pat Sullivan 31-7 in 1971.

Bear Bryant's Crimson Tide (11-0, 7-0 Southeastern Conference) was then routed in turn by No. 1 Nebraska 38-6 in the Orange Bowl. Both teams are contenders going into this one, though Auburn (10-1, 6-1) likely needs No. 3 Ohio State or No. 2 Florida State to lose.

Losses by Oregon and Baylor helped the Tigers move up a couple of spots in the shrinking line of title hopefuls, but the Iron Bowl winner still must get past either No. 5 Missouri or No. 10 South Carolina in the SEC championship game.

Nick Saban's Alabama team controls its own destiny in the program's pursuit of a third straight BCS championship and fourth in five years.

McCarron insisted it was easy remaining focused on FCS Chattanooga last week and said the heightened stakes don't change his approach to the game.

''I really don't care what their record is,'' he said. ''They're still the next team in our way trying to take what we've worked for.''

Prosch offered a similar mind-set on preparing for the game, which is only the seventh Top 10 matchup in a rivalry that has been played 77 times.

''It feels like we've been preparing for every other team, not really anything different,'' he said. ''We all know it's a huge game and we're going to play our hearts out, preparing like we normally do.''

While the Tide was romping over Chattanooga 49-0 Saturday, Auburn had an open date following a thrilling win over Georgia in another matchup of traditional rivals.

Saban quickly turned his attention to the regular season finale after Chattanooga even if players mostly cited the coaches' 24-hour celebration window allowing them to savor even that win.

''Our focus obviously needs to immediately shift to the opportunities that we have created for ourselves and the games that we have in the future,'' Saban said after the game. ''Obviously the one that we have this week coming up against Auburn is a very important game. They have a great team. They've had a great season.

''It's going to be important for everybody in our organization to make a commitment to doing their very best job to play their best football, because that's probably what it's going to take to have success against a very good team.''

It's taken the biggest turnaround of the college football season to restore this game into a high-stakes affair for both teams.

Alabama's 49-0 win last season was the second-biggest margin in Iron Bowl history. Alabama won 42-14 in 2011 after the Tigers pulled off a huge comeback to win 28-27 the year before to continue their own national title run with Cam Newton.

Tide receiver Kevin Norwood said the game's significance could bring out the best in both teams. But, he added, the priority is ''to really focus on doing our job, like coach Saban always preaches.''

''It's definitely good because when you have something to play for, you just have a lot of motivation to play your best,'' Norwood said. ''And we know they're going to play their best.''

[StarDust Bum]

See spot. See spot bet: This week's best spot bet opportunities

Spot bets are classic handicapping practices that have proven profitable no matter what sport you’re betting. Whether it’s a team looking past this week’s opponent, one coming off a hard-fought victory, or a rough patch of schedule, bettors can find value picking their spots.

Letdown spot

Want to know how much air has been sucked out of the Baylor Bears after getting balled by Oklahoma State in Stillwater Saturday? The LVH Superbook in Las Vegas dropped BU from +350 to +5000 on its BCS Championship futures board following the loss and oddsmakers aren’t expecting much from the Bears versus TCU this weekend, setting them under two-TD road favorites in Forth Worth.

Baylor not only has to pick its tighty-whities off the turf after the pantsing by OSU but is dealing with a broken heart, with its national title hopes dashed. Football bettors have seen this same struggle with Oregon since losing all hope after the loss to Stanford. The cherry on top of this spot bet sundae is that BU has a showdown with Texas for a spot in the Big 12 title game in Week 14.

Lookahead spot

The Brooklyn Nets’ “Big Three” (or “Big Four” depending on how big a Brook Lopez fan you are) has been a big bust so far this season. Kevin Garnett looks 100 years old, Paul Pierce hasn’t shot this bad since his rookie season, and Deron Williams is once again limping up and down the court. The Nets are 3-10 (4-9 ATS) out of the gate and have lost five straight heading into Tuesday’s trip to Toronto and Wednesday’s home date with the Los Angeles Lakers.

Brooklyn needs some time away. Thankfully – pun intended – the Nets get that break with Thanksgiving Thursday and a western road trip to Houston and Memphis at the end of the week. With a chance to get away from the court and escape from the merciless New York media, the Nets could get caught looking ahead to a belly full of turkey and the solitude of a hotel room before handling business versus a Lakers team picking up steam off three straight wins and covers.

Schedule spot

When is a home game not a home game? When it’s played in another country. The Buffalo Bills come to the comfy confines of the Rogers Centre in Toronto to “host” the Atlanta Falcons in Week 13. Buffalo fans have long been miffed over this yearly game in Canada (you would be too if your team was 1-4 SU and 1-3-1 ATS north of the border), losing a great home-field edge in the November cold at Ralph Wilson and instead trading it in for the indoor track in T.O. – a venue that plays right into the Falcons’ hands.

While this week's outing in Toronto is slotted as a home game, the Bills’ schedule has them playing four of their final five games away from Buffalo. They hit the road for two straight weeks – in Tampa Bay and Jacksonville – then are back home against the Dolphins before trip to New England for the finale. Oh, BTW, weather in Buffalo Sunday: High 30s, chance of rain, winds 15 mph. Home sweet dome.

[StarDust Bum]

Armadillo: Tuesday's six-pack

-- Congrats to UMass for getting into Top 25 for first time since 1998; they are playing a challenging schedule and playing very well.

-- Dayton 84, Gonzaga 79-- Flyers were down 16 in first half, scored 56 points in second half to pull upset in Maui Classic.

-- Kentucky 68, Cleveland State 61-- Vikings were up 4 at half. Kentucky wound up with 27-14 edge on foul line. Tough to win on the road.

-- BYU 86, Texas 82-- We'll be seeing the Cougars in March; they've got to play Thurs/Sat in NCAAs. BYU doesn't play on Sundays.

-- Arizona State 79, Marquette 77-- ASU only played six guys more than five minutes, little bit of a red flag, seeing as they were up 15 early.

-- Portland 102, Knicks 91-- New York is 3-10 and sinking like a rock.


*****

Armadillo: Tuesday's List of 13: Nobody asked me, but.....

13) The cool thing about building a winning football team is that most of the things that make a good franchise QB are things the general public cannot see. Does the QB study enough? Is he a great teammate? Do his teammates believe in him and will they follow him? When a team gets the ball down 3 with 2:00 to go on their own 30, do the other 46 players think the QB will lead them down the field?

I watch every game on TV, but have no idea about the intangibles and that’s what makes it interesting.

12) You want to be a gambler? Eight of the Dolphins’ 11 games this year have been decided by 4 or less points. Seems like every game they play comes down to a red zone drive in the last minute. Very tough team to handicap, especially with all the off-field chaos mixed in.

11) Jets are 0-2 since OC Marty Mornhinweg’s son became starting QB at Florida; not saying he is distracted, but its been a bad month for both the Jets and Gators. Florida's #3 WR used to be a fullback; they're a bit depleted.

10) This bears repeating: Georgia Southern beat Florida 26-20 Saturday without completing one pass. Zero. 0 for 3. None. Eagles are a I-AA team. Gators are a complete mess.

9) Sad thing about Georgia QB Aaron Murray tearing his ACL and having his college career end two games early, after 52 career starts; it’ll cost him a lot of money in the spring when the draft rolls around, but he’ll wind up playing in the NFL, but maybe not next year.

8) Tip of the cap to NY State’s DMV, whose online registration system turns out to be excellent. Did the whole online registration thing, was done in five minutes, had my sticker six days later. Efficient system by a department that takes its share of grief.

7) I’m not a big believer in ERA as a pitching stat; think the pitcher should be held responsible for all the runs he gives up, even if a fielder screws up. We don’t discredit the pitcher if a fielder makes a great play and saves several runs. It all should even out eventually, which is why we use RA on this website, not ERA.

6) Dodgers signed Dan Haren for one year, $10M, good value for a veteran pitcher. Makes me nervous because it means Ricky Nolasco walks, and I have him on my fantasy team; don’t want him in Colorado or the AL. Sounds like a good deal for the Dodgers, though.

5) Over the last three seasons, Derrick Rose has played 50 games for the Bulls, and banked $41,028,896. Oy.

4) If you care about such things, since it is Maui Classic week, here is next year’s field: Arizona-BYU-K State-Missouri-Pitt-Purdue-San Diego State, along with host Chaminade. Strong field, as usual.

3) Has an NFL head coach ever won Coach of the Year in consecutive years, for two different teams? Bruce Arians might do that, although Andy Reid figures to win COY unless the Chiefs collapse.

2) Former Cleveland Browns' GM Phil Savage pointed out on Twitter that when Robert Griffin gets tackled, none of his teammates help him up; he thinks that is telling. Seeing as he is a former NFL GM, I believe him.

1) Off top of my head, I'm thinking this is the busiest week of the sports year, in terms of sheer volume; Rivalry Saturday in college football, ton of good college basketball, the first 16-game NFL card in a while, plus NBA and NHL games. Good week to log onto this website every day.

[StarDust Bum]

Top 25 Betting Recap - Week 13

November 26, 2013


Week 13 of the 2013 NCAA football betting season is in the books, and today, we're going to be taking a look at each of the Top 25 teams in the BCS rankings and see how they did from an ATS perspective in this go around this past week.

(Results in parentheses represent SU Result-ATS Result)

1: Alabama (W-L vs. Chattanooga 49-0)
The Tide are ready to roll into the title game, and the opponents are falling left and right.

2: Florida State (W-W vs. Idaho 80-14)
QB Jameis Winston's off the field issues are the only thing plaguing FSU.

3: Ohio State (W-L vs. Indiana 42-14)
The Buckeyes are clearly third best now and are just waiting for someone else to drop.

4: Baylor (L-L vs. Oklahoma State 49-17)
The Bears' perfect season came to a close as soon as they had to run up against some big time competition. Now they'll be lucky just to be in the BCS.

5: Oregon (L-L vs. Arizona 42-16)
No one wants to win the Pac-12 North. This is the third straight week the lead has changed hands on this side.

6: Auburn (Bye)
The week of carnage might legitimately make it that Auburn controls its own destiny to play for all of the marbles.

7: Clemson (W-W vs. Citadel 52-6)
Don't let this one fool you; it was 42-0 Tigers at halftime.

8: Missouri (W-W vs. Ole Miss 24-10)
Just as Auburn controls its own destiny, so too might ultimately the Tigers. The gap is definitely shrinking with Baylor and Oregon out of the way.

9: Stanford (W-W vs. Cal 63-13)
And just like that, the Cardinal are back in the driver's seat to go to the Rose Bowl after dismissing lowly Cal.

10: Oklahoma State (W-W vs. Baylor 49-17)
There wasn't a more impressive time for a more impressive victory. Okie State is two wins away from the Fiesta Bowl at worst.

11: South Carolina (W-W vs. Coastal Carolina 70-10)
The Gamecocks are still hoping that Mizzou slips up to get into the SEC Championship Game.

12: Texas A&M (L-L vs. LSU 34-10)
QB Johnny Manziel will close out his collegiate career without a single win against LSU.

13: Michigan State (W-W vs. Northwestern 30-6)
The Spartans haven't been pretty, but they are on their way to the Big Ten Championship Game with a shot of taming Ohio State. Who knows? An FSU loss, and Sparty could still be in the title mix.

14: UCLA (L-L vs. Arizona State 38-33)
QB Brett Hundley rallied the troops from down 35-13 at halftime but could never take the lead against ASU.

15: Fresno State (W-W vs. New Mexico 69-28)
The Bulldogs beat up the Lobos, but they fell behind Northern Illinois in the chase for the non-AQ BCS bowl bid.

16: Northern Illinois (W-W vs. Toledo 35-17)
The Huskies have earned their right to the BCS as far as we can tell. They're ranked third in Jeff Sagarin's computer poll.

17: Arizona State (W-W vs. UCLA 38-33)
Heck, ASU is going to host the Pac-12 title game now if it can beat Arizona this week.

18: UCF (W-W vs. Rutgers 41-17)
The Knights haven't had many easy victories of late, but they got one against Rutgers on Thursday night.

19: Wisconsin (W-L vs. Minnesota 20-7)
It was the first ATS defeat of the season for the Badgers, but at least they got to keep Paul Bunyan's Axe.

20: Oklahoma (W-W vs. Kansas State 41-31)
QB Trevor Knight put up big offensive numbers for the first time in his career against K-State.

21: Louisville (W-L vs. Memphis 24-17)
The Cardinals almost blew a three-score lead for the second time this season at home.

22: LSU (W-W vs. Texas A&M 34-10)
The Bayou Bengals should be sitting pretty for the Cotton Bowl after dismissing Texas A&M, and the at large bid to the BCS isn't out of the question either.

23: USC (W-L vs. Colorado 47-29)
It wasn't a cover, but it was another feather in Head Coach Ed Orgeron's hat to try to keep the permanent USC job.

24: Ole Miss (L-L vs. Missouri 24-10)
The Rebels have four losses this year, each of which have come against teams that were at some point ranked in the Top 10 in the land.

25: Minnesota (L-W vs. Wisconsin 20-7)
That's 11 straight years that Paul Bunyan's Axe has stayed in Madison, but it was a valiant effort by the Gophers.

[StarDust Bum]

Games to Watch - Week 13

November 26, 2013

Ohio State at Michigan – As of late Tuesday morning, most books had Ohio State (11-0 straight up, 6-4-1 against the spread) installed as a 14.5-point road favorite. The Buckeyes have won eight of the last nine head-to-head meetings against their arch rivals both SU and ATS, including last season’s 26-21 triumph as four-point home favorites. Since Urban Meyer took over before the 2012 campaign, Ohio State owns a 3-2 spread record in five games as a road favorite. OSU has failed to cover the spread in back-to-back games, including Saturday’s 42-14 win over Indiana as a 33.5-point home ‘chalk.’ Michigan (7-4 SU, 6-5 ATS) has played three straight nail-biters. Three weeks ago, the Wolverines gave up a late touchdown to lose a 17-13 decision to Nebraska. Two weeks ago, they beat Northwestern 27-19 in triple overtime as 2.5-point underdogs.

Brady Hoke’s squad needed a hastily attempted 44-yard field goal as time expired to force the extra sessions in Evanston. In Iowa City this past weekend, Michigan lost 24-21 to Iowa but hooked up its backers as six-point road underdogs. This is only the second time Michigan has been a home ‘dog during Hoke’s three-year tenure. In 2011, the Wolverines dropped Notre Dame 35-31 as 3.5-point home puppies thanks to the late-game heroics of Denard Robinson. Senior QB Braxton Miller is the catalyst for the Buckeyes. He has a 19/4 touchdown-to-interception ratio and has rushed for 738 yards and five TDs. Michigan junior QB Devin Gardner has had an up-and-down season. Gardner has a 17/11 TD-INT ratio and 10 rushing scores. The ‘over’ is 7-4 for Ohio State, 3-1 in its four road assignments. The ‘under’ is 6-5 overall for Michigan, but the ‘over’ is 4-2 in its home games. The Wolverines have seen the ‘under’ cash in four consecutive contests (regardless of venue). Kickoff is scheduled for noon Eastern on ESPN.

Florida State at Florida – Due to the uncertain status of FSU quarterback Jameis Winston, there was no line as of late Tuesday morning. However, the Associated Press reported on Saturday that a decision on whether or not to press charges against Winston for an alleged sexual assault won’t happen before Thanksgiving. Therefore, bettors should expect Winston to start at The Swamp. FSU (11-0 SU, 9-2 ATS) is enjoying its best season in 13 years. Winston has been the key, completing 69.6 percent of his passes for 3,163 yards with a 32/7 TD-INT ratio. Florida (4-7 SU, 3-8 ATS) is coming off perhaps its most embarrassing loss in school history, a 26-20 defeat against Georgia Southern as a 28-point home favorite. The Gators have lost six in a row and are going to have their first losing season since 1979. Their only win over a team with a winning record came vs. Toledo in the season opener.

Junior QB Tyler Murphy remains ‘questionable’ with a shoulder injury, so Skyler Mornhinweg will probably get his third career start. In his first two games, Mornhinweg has a pair of TD passes and one interception. UF’s offense has been downright abysmal all season, averaging only 19.9 points per game. FSU is second in the nation in scoring offense (55.2 PPG) and scoring defense (11.2 PPG). The ‘over’ is 10-1 overall for the ‘Noles, 4-0 in their road games. The ‘under’ is 6-4-1 overall for UF, but the ‘over’ is 3-2-1 in its home games. When these teams met in Tallahassee last year, Florida captured a 37-26 win as a seven-point underdog. ESPN will have television coverage at noon Eastern.

Georgia at Georgia Tech – The Aaron Murray Era at UGA ended this past Saturday when the senior QB tore his ACL during a 59-17 home win over Kentucky. Murray threw 26 TD passes compared to six interceptions during his last season in Athens. For his career, he had a 121/41 TD-INT ratio and 16 rushing scores. Hutson Mason will get his first career start Saturday on The Flats in Midtown Atlanta. Mason, a product of Lassiter High School about 25 miles north of the Georgia Tech campus, is a fourth-year junior with a 5/1 TD-INT ratio in his collegiate career. He will become the first UGA quarterback other than Murray to start under center since Joe Cox got the nod against Texas A&M in the 2009 Independence Bowl. Look for offensive coordinator Mike Bobo to lean on sophomore workhorse RB Todd Gurley even more without Murray. Despite missing 3.5 games with a severely sprained ankle, Gurley has still rushed for 781 yards and seven TDs while averaging 6.3 yards per carry.

Georgia Tech (7-4 SU, 5-5-1 ATS) has won four of its last five games, but it is mired in a 2-5-1 ATS slump. Paul Johnson led his team to a 45-42 come-from-behind win over UGA in Athens in 2008, which was his first game in this storied rivalry. Since then, the Bulldogs have won four in a row, including a 42-10 win as 14.5-point home ‘chalk’ at Sanford Stadium last year. Gurley ran for 97 yards and two TDs on just 12 carries. The ‘over’ is 8-3 overall for UGA, 3-2 in its road games. The ‘over’ is 7-4 overall for the Yellow Jackets, 3-3 in their home contests. The ‘over’ has hit at a 6-1 clip in Georgia Tech’s last seven games. Kickoff on ABC is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. Eastern.

Clemson at South Carolina – As of late Tuesday morning, most books had South Carolina (9-2 SU, 5-6 ATS) favored by 4.5. South Carolina senior QB Connor Shaw has never lost a home game in his career. Due to a foot injury, Shaw was unable to go in last year’s regular-season finale when Dylan Thompson threw for 310 yards and three TD passes in a 27-17 win at Clemson. Thompson’s counterpart, QB Tajh Boyd, was intercepted twice and had just 183 passing yards. The Gamecocks, who have won four in a row over the Tigers by margins of 17, 22, 21 and 10 points, limited Sammy Watkins to four catches for only 37 yards. Steve Spurrier’s team will win its second SEC East title in school history if Texas A&M wins Saturday at Missouri. Shaw has had a spectacular season, throwing 20 TD passes and just one interception. He has also rushed for 417 yards and four TDs.

Mike Davis has enjoyed a breakout campaign by running for 1,112 yards and 10 TDs. Davis sat out last week’s 70-10 win over Coastal Carolina, but he could’ve played if it were a more important game and will start Saturday. Clemson (10-1 SU, 6-5 ATS) has won four in a row, going 3-1 ATS, since suffering its lone defeat at home against FSU by a 51-14 count. The Tigers are led by Boyd, the senior QB who has thrown for 3,248 yards with a 29/7 TD-INT ratio. Watkins, his favorite target, has hauled in 78 receptions for 1,144 yards and 10 TDs. Clemson owns a 7-3 spread record in 10 games as a road underdog since Dabo Swinney took over midway through the 2008 season. The ‘under’ is 6-5 overall for South Carolina, 3-3 in its home games. The ‘over’ is 7-4 for Clemson, 2-2 in its road assignments. ESPN2 will have television coverage at 7:00 p.m. Eastern.

Texas A&M at Missouri – As of late Tuesday morning, most spots had Missouri (10-1 SU, 9-1-1 ATS) installed as a 4.5-point ‘chalk.’ The Tigers can clinch the SEC East with a win and would then meet the Auburn-Alabama winner at the Georgia Dome next weekend. After missing four consecutive games with a separated shoulder, senior QB James Franklin returned last Saturday to lead his team to a 24-10 win at Ole Miss as a three-point road favorite. Franklin completed 12-of-19 passes for 142 yards in frigid temperatures. He also ran for 42 yards on eight totes, while Henry Josey produced 95 rushing yards and two TDs on 15 carries. Franklin has a 14/4 TD-INT ratio and three rushing scores. Josey has rushed for a team-high 855 yards and 12 TDs while averaging 6.1 YPC. Gary Pinkel’s team has won its 10 games by margins of 14 points or more.

Texas A&M (8-3 SU, 5-6 ATS) saw its three-game winning streak snapped in a 34-10 loss at LSU last weekend as a 3.5-point underdog. For a second straight year, LSU defensive coordinator John Chavis stymied Johnny Manziel for four quarters. Manziel completed just 16-of-41 throws for 224 yards and was intercepted twice. However, he still has a 32/13 TD-INT ratio for the season. The Aggies, who are 0-3 ATS on the road this year, gave up 324 rushing yards to LSU. The ‘over’ is 6-5 for Mizzou, but the ‘under’ is 4-2 in its home games. The ‘over’ is 8-3 overall for the Aggies, 2-1 in their road assignments. When these schools met last season, Texas A&M cruised to a 59-29 win as a 23-point home favorite. Manziel threw for 372 yards and three TDs and also ran for a pair of scores. Kickoff is slated for 7:45 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

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Tuesday, November 26

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Western Michigan - 7:00 PM ET Northern Illinois -34.5 500 POD # 1

Northern Illinois - Under 61.5 500 POD # 2

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Thursday's Notebook

November 26, 2013


The NFL takes the spotlight on Thanksgiving, but the Thursday Night college football schedule features two nationally televised major conference games this week, with both games having meaning in the bowl picture. Here is a brief look at the matchups for Thursday college football this week with Texas Tech heading to Texas and Mississippi visiting Mississippi State.

Texas Tech Red Raiders (+4½) at Texas Longhorns (66) 7:30 PM ET (FS1)

With Baylor losing last week, there are still scenarios for Texas to win the Big XII. They will need Oklahoma to beat Oklahoma State next week and Texas will have to beat Baylor next week in addition to surviving this home game. Incredibly, the Longhorns have lost 11 home games since 2010 including two home losses this season, losing by 21 against Mississippi early in the season and falling in the last game two weeks ago hosting Oklahoma State in a 25-point defeat.

It has been a hard fall for Texas Tech with four straight losses after a 7-0 start, but all things considered it could end up a respectable season for first year head coach Kilff Kingsbury, who took over after the surprise departure of Tommy Tuberville. A win this week would certainly solidify that that program is in good hands, but either way the Red Raiders will get a bowl opportunity.

Statistically these teams are pretty close on both sides of the ball and while Texas has won four in a row S/U in this series, there have been many close games. On a yards per play basis, Texas Tech actually has edges on both sides of the ball compared with Texas, but the schedule for the Longhorns has been much more difficult. The Red Raiders have been exploited on the ground in Big XII play, out-rushed by at least 150 yards in all four losses and a Texas attack posting 192 yards per game on the ground could have some opportunities.

Last season, Texas won 31-22 in Lubbock as the Red Raiders were a 6 ½-point favorite and ranked in the top 25 at the time. The yardage was nearly even with Texas Tech posting 441 yards and Texas finishing with 427, but Texas controlled the game on the ground. It was a two-point game after the Red Raiders failed on a two-point conversion attempt late in the third quarter, but David Ash hit Mike Davis for a 25-yard touchdown in the fourth quarter and the defense held the rest of the way.

Texas is has won S/U in 12 of the last 14 meetings in this series including winning in each of the last four seasons, with ATS wins in nine of the last 14 meetings. Texas has been a suspect home favorite in recent years, however, going just 9-18 ATS in the last 27 games laying points in Austin. Texas Tech is just 12-17 ATS as an underdog since 2007.

Mississippi Rebels (-3) at Mississippi State Bulldogs (52) 7:30 PM ET (ESPN)

With the win over Arkansas last week, this is a huge game for the Bulldogs with a chance to get to a bowl game by reaching 6-6 this week. Mississippi State trailed most of the way in Little Rock, but rallied to tie the game and then won in overtime. The Bulldogs plays two quarterbacks, but with Dak Prescott injured, senior Tyler Russell has carried the load. Prescott is doubtful again this week and while Russell has certainly had some ups-and-downs in his career, he has played well the last two weeks and has completed over 65 percent of his passes on the season.

Ole Miss came up short in a big game last week at home against Missouri and while this is a big rivalry, there will be less at stake for the Rebels. With elevated expectations after a bowl season last year under Hugh Freeze in his first season in Oxford and a highly regarded recruiting class, things seemed to come together early this season with a 44-23 thrashing of highly-ranked Texas. After the 3-0 start, Ole Miss was quickly 3-3 with three consecutive losses, however. After rallying to win four in a row including a marquee win over LSU, last week’s defeat ended the run and the Rebels are locked into a solid but not overly satisfying bowl position.

Mississippi State had won three in a row in the Egg Bowl series before losing 41-24 last season in Oxford with the Rebels posting 527 yards. Historically, Mississippi has had a slight edge going 18-15 S/U and 19-13-1 ATS in this series since 1980, but the Rebels have not won S/U in Starkville since 2003, losing the last four trips. The home team has won S/U in eight of the last nine meetings between these state rivals.

Ole Miss has been stronger on both sides of the ball statistically overall this season, but the Rebels have been out-rushed by at least 90 yards in five of the last eight games as there could be opportunities for the Bulldogs on the ground, averaging 4.9 yards per rush and 194 yards per game this season. Without Prescott, that presence is not as great, but the Rebels are also allowing almost 64 percent completions from opposing quarterbacks. Mississippi State has faced one of the toughest schedules in the nation with a game against Oklahoma State added to a tough SEC slate and the season numbers can probably be thrown out in this rivalry game.

The trends are concerning for both teams with Mississippi going just 6-15 ATS as a road favorite since 2001, but Mississippi State is just 16-24 ATS as a home underdog since 2002. The Bulldogs are 10-3 S/U at home the last two seasons with the losses coming against Texas A&M, LSU, and Alabama so this is still a tough place to play despite the close of another marginal season for Dan Mullen in his fifth year at Mississippi State.