The Bum's November's College Football POD's+Trends+Stats+News !

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NCAAF
Short Sheet

Tuesday, November 19

Buffalo at Miami, 8:00 ET
Buffalo: 10-2 UNDER after playing a conference game
Miami: 13-5 UNDER as an underdog

Kent State at Ohio, 8:00 ET
Kent State: 8-1 ATS off a win against a conference rival
Ohio: 3-11 ATS against conference opponents

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Tuesday, November 19

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Buffalo - 8:00 PM ET Miami (Ohio) +24 500 POD # 4

Miami (Ohio) - Over 48 500 POD # 1

Kent State - 8:00 PM ET Ohio -6.5 500 POD # 2

Ohio - Over 51.5 500 POD # 3

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Inside the Stats

November 20, 2013

Each week we take a look inside the numbers, from both a statistical and a pointspread aspect, on the college football and NFL cards.

Here are this week’s findings…

7 Come 11

Game 11 of the college football season signals many things. For teams with six or more wins, it’s one step closer to a probable bowl bid. However, teams languishing below .500 are likely to be home for the holidays.

So it is, too, for Game 11 non-winners that ended the previous season with 7 or more wins who are playing today off two losses-exact. Our best advice for these teams is to bend over and kiss it goodbye, as these losers have a better chance of learning how to navigate the government health care website than enhancing their bowl chances.

That’s because these 7-plus game winners last year who enter Game 11 this year off two losses-exact with a .500 or less record are 18-38-1 ATS since 1980.

San Jose State will assume the role this week. And for what it’s worth, home teams are 8-23 ATS, including 2-14 ATS when they are allowing 26 or more PPG on the season.

While 7 and 11 are winning numbers in the first roll at a craps table, together they are losers on the college gridiron.

Last Home Games

With the 2013 college football season heading to the wire, one of our favorite handicapping ploys is now in play, mainly Last Home Games.

For some teams it’s a proud sendoff for seniors who have dedicated their career to success. For others it’s the final curtain on a disappointing season.

From our powerful database listed below are the teams that have met with the best and worst point-spread success in LHG’s (Last Home Games).

All results are ATS (Against The Spread) and are most recent trends with a minimum of five occurrences. Enjoy.

Best LHG’s

Arkansas 6-0
Colorado 7-0
North Carolina State 5-0
Nevada 5-0-1
New Mexico 6-1
Rice 7-1
South Carolina 6-0
Stanford 5-1

Worst LHG’s

Buffalo 1-7
Clemson 1-6
Florida Atlantic 1-7
Idaho 1-5-1
Louisville 0-5
LSU 1-8
Miami, Fl. 1-5
Michigan 1-6-1
Missouri 0-6

In The Stats

Football teams who have been out gained in each of their last three games are considered to be ‘leaking oil’ when installed as favorites in this condition.

These ‘leaking oil’ favorites now stand at 18-22 ATS overall this season, including 13-15 in CFB and 5-7 in the NFL.

This week’s plays would be against:

NCAAFB: Central Michigan, Duke, Illinois, Iowa State, Temple, Tennessee, Tulsa and Wyoming

NFL: Kansas City

Overwhelming

Each week, we keep tabs throughout the season on Over/Under scoring tendencies in the NFL. And as reported in this column for the past few weeks, the success of OVERS has been outstanding in non-conference games.

After yet another outstanding 3-1 execution of the bookmakers last week, these non-conference games (AFC vs. NFC) are now 38-12 (76%) OVER this season, including a jaw-dropping 14-1 OVER the last four weeks.

This week’s potential non-conference OVERS would be -- Arizona at Indianapolis, Carolina at Miami

Stat Of The Week

New England has been favored in each of its last 75 games in a row at home.

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Northern Illinois at Toledo

November 20, 2013


Matchup: Northern Illinois at Toledo
Venue: Glass Bowl (FieldTurf) from Toledo, Ohio
Date: Wednesday, Nov. 20, 2013
Time/TV: 8:00 pm. ET - ESPN2
Line: Northern Illinois -2 ½, Over/Under 73
Last Meeting: 2012, Northern Illinois (-10) 31 vs. Toledo 24

Northern Illinois can lock up the MAC West and earn an invite back to the MAC Championship Game with a win tonight at the Glass Bowl. Standing in the Huskies’ way is a Toledo squad that can create a three-way tie atop the MAC West standings with a win over NIU.

As of early this morning, most books had Northern Illinois (10-0 straight up, 7-3 against the spread) favored by 2 ½ or three points with a total of 72 ½. The Rockets are +120 on the money line (risk $100 to win $120). For first-half wagers, NIU is favored by one-half point (even-money bet) with a total of 35 ½.

Toledo (7-3 SU, 7-2-1 ATS) has won five in a row, going 4-1 ATS over that span. The Rockets raced out to a 31-0 halftime lead against Buffalo last Tuesday night. They were still able to hook up their backers as 5.5-point home favorites but allowed the Bulls back into the game before winning by a 51-41 score.

Terrance Owens threw for 228 yards and two TDs without an interception while also rushing for a score. With leading rusher David Fluellen was out for a second straight game, freshman Kareem Hunt responded by rushing for 186 yards and one TD. Bernard Reedy had three receptions for 149 yards and two scores.

For the season, Owens has 1,837 passing yards with a 13/6 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The tall southpaw has also run for a pair of scores. His favorite target is Reedy, who has hauled in 55 receptions for 736 yards and six touchdowns.

Fluellen has been one of the nation’s top RBs this year, but he will most likely miss a third consecutive game tonight. Fluellen has run for 1,060 yards and 10 TDs while averaging 7.0 yards per carry.

But gambler shouldn’t downgrade Toledo’s offense on account of Fluellen’s absence. That’s because Hunt as emerged as a beast. The freshman sensation has rushed for 672 yards and six TDs while averaging 6.8 YPC.

NIU is led by senior QB Jordan Lynch, the 2012 MAC Offensive Player of the Year who is on his way to earning that same honor again. Lynch has led the Huskies to 10 consecutive wins by rushing for 1,273 yards and 15 TDs.

Lynch has completed 65.5 percent of his passes for 2,216 yards with a 21/5 TD-INT ratio. Tommylee Lewis and Da’Ron Brown are Lynch’s favorite targets. Lewis is possession receiver with 74 grabs for 623 yards and three TDs, while Brown stretches the field with 41 receptions for 689 yards and nine scores.

Cameron Stingily has rushed 148 times for 812 yards and nine TDs. Stingily is averaging 5.5 YPC for the Huskies.

NIU owns a 4-1 spread record as a road favorite this season and is 8-2 ATS in such spots going back to last season. Meanwhile, Toledo has compiled a 2-1-1 spread record in four games as an underdog this year.

However, this is the first home ‘dog spot for the Rockets in 2013. They are 10-5 ATS as home ‘dogs going back to 2003 and 1-0 under second-year head coach Matt Campell.

The ‘over’ is 7-3 overall for NIU, 4-2 in its road assignments. The Huskies have seen their games average 69.8 combined points per game.

The ‘under’ is 6-4 overall for Toledo, but the ‘over’ is 4-1 in its home games. The ‘over’ has cashed in four of the Rockets’ last five games. They have seen their games combine for an average score of 62.7 PPG.

When these MAC adversaries met in Dekalb last season, No. Illinois won a 31-24 decision but failed to cover the number as a 10-point home favorite. Lynch threw for 407 yards and rushed for 162 on 30 carries. He had three TD passes and one interception.

Owens threw for 265 yards but was intercepted three times. Fluellen rushed for 79 yards and one TD, while Reedy finished with 10 catches for 131 yards.

Kickoff is scheduled for 8:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN2.

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NCAAF
Dunkel

Week 13

Northern Illinois at Toledo
The Huskies travel to Toledo tonight coming off a 48-27 win over Ball State and carrying a 4-0 ATS record in their last 4 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game. Northern Illinois is the pick (-2 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Huskies favored by 7. Dunkel Pick: Northern Illinois (-2 1/2). Here are all of today's games.

WEDNESDAY, NOVEMBER 20

Game 105-106: Northern Illinois at Toledo (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Northern Illinois 95.124; Toledo 87.956
Dunkel Line: Northern Illinois by 7; 68
Vegas Line: Northern Illinois by 2 1/2; 72 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Northern Illinois (-2 1/2); Under



NCAAF
Long Sheet

Week 13


Wednesday, November 20

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N ILLINOIS (10 - 0) at TOLEDO (7 - 3) - 11/20/2013, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TOLEDO is 53-33 ATS (+16.7 Units) in home games since 1992.
TOLEDO is 53-33 ATS (+16.7 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
TOLEDO is 41-22 ATS (+16.8 Units) in home games against conference opponents since 1992.
TOLEDO is 47-27 ATS (+17.3 Units) in home games in games played on turf since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
TOLEDO is 1-1 against the spread versus N ILLINOIS over the last 3 seasons
N ILLINOIS is 2-0 straight up against TOLEDO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 13

Wednesday's game

Northern Illinois won last three games with Toledo by 35-3-7 points, as Huskies scored 53 ppg in games that had average total of 91. Huskies are 10-0, covering last four games, with pair of 21-point wins closest of the four wins. NIU has two road wins vs Big Dozen teams (Iowa/Purdue) so road isn't a problem for them- they've also run ball for 336 ypg last four games. Underdogs covered eight of last 11 series games. Toledo won its last five games, scoring 45+ points, running ball for 321+ yards in four of the five- they've won all five home games this season. Interesting game. Rockets covered three of four games as an underdog this season.




NCAAF

Week 13

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Trend Report
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Wednesday, November 20

8:00 PM
NORTHERN ILLINOIS vs. TOLEDO
Northern Illinois is 5-11 SU in its last 16 games when playing Toledo
Northern Illinois is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Toledo
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Toledo's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Toledo's last 16 games


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NCAAF

Wednesday, November 20

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Northern Illinois at Toledo: What bettors need to know
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Northern Illinois Huskies at Toledo Rockets (+2.5, OFF)

Northern Illinois can clinch at least a share of the Mid-American Conference West Division title with a victory Wednesday against host Toledo and assure the No. 21 Huskies a fourth consecutive trip to the MAC championship game. A win by the Rockets in the Glass Bowl would forge a three-way tie for the division lead with Ball State. The No. 1 task for Toledo will be finding a way to stop Northern Illinois quarterback Jordan Lynch, who upped his Heisman Trophy stock by passing for 345 yards and two touchdowns and rushing for 123 yards and two scores in a 48-27 victory last week against Ball State.

Lynch established an FBS record for rushing yards by a quarterback earlier this season when he totaled 316 yards in a 38-17 victory against Central Michigan. Last season against Toledo, Lynch threw for a career-best 407 yards and ran for 162 in the 31-24 victory. The Rockets are riding a five-game winning streak, despite giving up 27 fourth-quarter points in 51-41 victory last week against Buffalo, averaging 45.2 points in that span.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, ESPN2.

LINE: Toledo opened at +2 home dogs and have been bet to +2.5. The total is currently OFF.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high 30s with an 8 mph wind blowing towards the North end zone.

ABOUT NORTHERN ILLINOIS (10-0, 6-0 MAC): One of the surprises for the Huskies this season has been the emergence of running back Cameron Stingily. He was limited to four appearances on special teams last season and one rushing attempt after switching to running back in the offseason and figured to be
buried behind Akeem Daniels and Keith Harris Jr. on the depth chart. But Daniels has been sidelined all season with a toe injury and Harris suffered a season-ending ankle injury in October, opening the door for Stingily to rush for 812 yards and nine touchdowns this season - second only to Lynch.

ABOUT TOLEDO (7-3, 5-1): The Rockets have been dealing with their own injuries as running back as David Fluellen, second in the MAC with 133.4 rushing
yards per game, has missed the last two contests with a leg injury and his status against Northern Illinois in uncertain. Fluellen has been replaced by freshman Kareem Hunt, who rushed for 186 yards and a touchdown against Buffalo, his fourth straight game with more than 100 yards on the ground. Fluellen’s pass-catching ability is also missed as he’s third on the team with 25 receptions.

TRENDS:

* Huskies are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.
* Rockets are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games versus a team with a winning record.
* Over is 5-1 in Huskies last six games after rushing for more than 200 yards in the previous game.
* Under i 8-2 in the Rockets last 10 versus a team with a winning record.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. The Rockets are 25-5 in MAC play over the past four years with three losses coming against Northern Illinois.

2. The Huskies have won 14 consecutive road games, the longest active streak in the FBS after Oregon's 19-game streak ended Nov. 7 against Stanford.

3. Northern Illinois CB Sean Evans, who started the first four games before suffering a knee injury, is expected to return against Toledo.

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NCAAF
Short Sheet

Wednesday, November 20

Northern Illinois at Toledo, 8:00 ET
Northern Illinois: 6-0 UNDER after having won 8 or more out of their last 10
Toledo: 9-1 UNDER as an underdog

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Wednesday, November 20

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Northern Illinois - 8:00 PM ET Northern Illinois -3 500 POD # 1

Toledo - Over 73 500 POD # 2

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Thursday's Notebook

November 20, 2013


The Thursday Night college football schedule features three nationally televised games this week to start off the first of the final three weeks of the college football regular season. While none of the top conferences are involved in the Thursday games this week, there is meaning in the conference races and bowl projections for all three games. Here is a brief look at the matchups for Thursday college football this week.

Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Central Florida Knights (-17½) 7:30 PM ET (ESPN)

Most have assumed that after the huge win over Louisville, it is a foregone conclusion that Central Florida will win the AAC and the automatic BCS bowl spot that goes with it. The Knights are certainly in the driver's seat at 5-0 in league play, but they will get the best shot from each of their final three opponents. Four of the five wins in conference play for Central Florida have come by seven or fewer points as this has not been a dominant team and last week the Knights barely survived against Temple, a team that is improving but still has just one win on the season. The early season win over Penn State no longer looks all that impressive and while the offensive numbers are very good for this team, there has been some inconsistency. Central Florida has improved defensively compared with last season statistically, but the numbers are not dominant, allowing 5.5 yards per play and 370 yards per game.

After a promising 4-1 start to the season, Rutgers has lost three of the last four games with only a narrow win over 1-9 Temple. Rutgers has played the last three games at home, yet has lost badly in two of those games, falling by 35 points each against Houston and Cincinnati. Rutgers has featured an excellent run defense that is allowing just 3.3 yards per carry, but opponents are passing for 328 yards per game against the Scarlet Knights on over 64 percent completions.

Rutgers will still play Connecticut and South Florida after this game, so heading to a third straight postseason spot seems likely regardless of Thursday's result. Rutgers has had 21 turnovers this season led by erratic senior quarterback Gary Nova, who has 10 interceptions in five conference games, but this is a team that scored 40 points per game through the first five games of the season as the offense is still capable of producing.

The spread trends favor Rutgers in the road underdog role as the Scarlet Knights are 17-10-1 ATS on the road since 2008 and an impressive 24-10-1 ATS as an underdog since 2006. Since 2009, Central Florida is 16-9-1 ATS as a home favorite, but the Knights are just 7-7 ATS the last 14 games when favored by 14 or more points.

Rice Owls (-18) at Alabama-Birmingham Blazers 7:30 PM ET (FS1)

Rice is a contender Conference USA West race, but an early November loss at North Texas is damaging to those hopes as the Mean Green currently holds the edge with both teams at 5-1 in conference play. Rice enters this final road game on a short week after a dominant homecoming win over Louisiana Tech, but the opposition is not threatening going against the 2-8 UAB Blazers. Rice already has seven wins overall, so another bowl trip is likely after the team won the Armed Forces Bowl against Air Force last season. Two of the three losses for Rice came in road games this season and the Owls are a bit suspect statistically, sitting with a 7-3 record but barely positive in net yards per play. Rice has allowed 175 rushing yards per game and while the defense has improved dramatically overall compared with last season's numbers, Rice has been out-gained in three wins this season.

UAB is in the opposite division of Rice and these teams last played in 2010 with Rice winning narrowly at home. It has been a rough season for the Blazers in the second season under Coach Garrick McGee as it seems unlikely the team will improve on last year's 3-9 record, sitting at 2-8 with two games to play currently. The schedule has been a great challenge with this being just the fourth home game of the season. UAB lost badly at home to Florida Atlantic, but picked up a win over FCS Northwestern State and nearly beat Middle Tennessee State in the other home games.

UAB is allowing over 503 yards per game on average this season on 7.4 yards per play, as the defense has really struggled, hiding a competent offense. UAB actually averages more yards per play on offense than Rice at 5.9 and the Blazers are still gaining almost 400 yards per game with solid run and pass balance. Quarterback play has been an issue with only 53 percent of passes completed, but UAB has scored at least 21 points in seven of 10 games this season. The Blazers have been outscored, 195-80 on the current four-game losing streak.

Rice is just 7-12-1 ATS as a road favorite going back to late 1997, though the Owls are 2-0 ATS in that role this season. This spread is currently sitting as the highest road favorite spread for Rice as far back as we have data (1980). Rice has covered in six of the last eight games as a double-digit favorite, including three of four instances this season. Historically, UAB is 20-9-2 ATS as a home underdog since 1999, including covering in 10 of the last 14 instances and in the lone opportunity this season. UAB has failed in six straight games against the number as an underdog of 10 or more points.

UNLV Rebels at Air Force Falcons (-1) 9:30 PM ET (ESPNU)

The Rebels have not been to a bowl game since 2000, but at 5-5 so far this season, they could get an opportunity with just one more win. Next week's home date against San Diego State will be a tough game, so this may be the best opportunity to get it done. UNLV has lost two games in a row in tough home games against good teams and the Rebels have been out-gained by 40 yards per game and out-scored by almost five points per game despite the even record this season. Before winning at New Mexico in September, UNLV had lost 23 consecutive road games S/U and going back to 2004, UNLV is 6-52 S/U and 15-40-3 ATS on the road. Those days appear to be behind the program with two road wins this season and one more win will seal the best season for the program since 2003 and a big jump in wins after three straight two-win seasons under Coach Bobby Hauck. The overall statistics are marginal for the Rebels, but lopsided losses to Arizona and Fresno State do skew the picture.

This is the final home game for Air Force, but it has been a miserable season with only a win over Army as a highlight. This was a three-point game last season with UNLV winning in Las Vegas early in the season but the Falcons have had an overwhelming series edge in recent years, winning nine of the last 11 meetings S/U and going 7-4 ATS in the series since 2002. UNLV last won Colorado Springs in 2001 and Air Force has generally been heavy favorite in this series.

Air Force has allowed at least 27 points in every FBS game this season as the defense has allowed 478 yards per game on 6.3 yards per play. The defensive edge for UNLV is not substantial, however, as the Rebels are allowing 5.5 yards per rush and 236 yards per game on the ground and Air Force still brings a dangerous running game to the table with 276 rushing yards per game on average. There is snow and cold weather currently projected for Thursday night and that could be a big advantage for the home team given the style of offense run by the Falcons and the warm climate Rebels team.

The road struggles for UNLV are well documented and the numbers are also poor in games where UNLV is expected to have a chance to win. When playing as a favorite, or as an underdog of less than 10 points, UNLV is just 28-47 ATS since 2002. Air Force has certainly had recent struggles at home going just 4-16 ATS in the last 20 home contests, though they are 12-8 S/U in those games.

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NFL Week 12 opening line report: Manning has more than Brady

Manning vs. Brady treats NFL bettors to football’s version of Frazier vs. Ali in Week 12. However, this time, Frazier (Manning) is swinging a set of cement gloves while Ali (Brady) is throwing around a pair of down pillows.

(We tab Brady as Ali simply because he’s had Manning’s number more often than not and is the more decorated of the two QBs. Please let us know if you have a better sports analogy for this one.)

Oddsmakers have set Brady and the Patriots as 2.5-point underdogs hosting Manning and the Broncos Sunday night, but one Las Vegas oddsmakers doesn’t think the line is high enough given the supporting cast surrounding both star quarterbacks.

“I just don’t think (New England has) the talent to beat Denver,” Peter Korner, founder of Nevada-based odds service The Sports Club, tells Covers. Korner says he brought a spread of Denver -3.5 to the table and sent out -3. However, books are dealing this game as low as New England +1.

“It just looks low,” Korner says of the current spread. “The Broncos bring a lot more to the table. Manning didn’t have great success in these big games as a Colt but in Denver he has so much around him. Denver, by far, has the better talent. I don’t think the Pats have enough this year to make it an easy game.”

New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons (+9.5, 53)

This NFC South showdown has been reduced to a dud Thursday nighter, thanks to the Falcons’ fall from grace.

The LVH Superbook in Las Vegas opened this game Atlanta -4 when it released its "Game of the Year" odds back in May – a near two-TD swing when compared to what books are dealing now. Some offshores opened as low as a touchdown but took instant action on the Saints, something Korner believes books should be prepared for.

“Atlanta is not going to get well here,” he says. “New Orleans need this win and it’s just asking for money on the favorite and Over. Atlanta just isn’t the same team it was last year and why would you expect something different? Because it’s not going to be. Why would (books) screw around and hope for something that hasn’t been there all season? Keep the Saints high.”


Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (-4.5)

Most markets are waiting on word of Aaron Rodgers’ status for Sunday’s divisional matchup with Minnesota. But it looks like Cheese Heads may have to grind out one more week before Green Bay’s QB is back from a broken collarbone.

“Not much to say. Rodgers doesn’t figure to be back, so Green Bay -4 on this on,” says Korner, who believes the line would jump to -8 or 8.5 is Rodgers is upgraded to probable. “(The Packers) weren’t blowing people away when he was in, but Minnesota just doesn’t have it. They both need this game. These are the best games to book because they’re the hardest games to pick.”


Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants (-2.5, 46.5)

The Giants have risen from the depths of the NFC East and appear to be one of the hottest teams in the conference, winning four in a row after a 0-6 start. Dallas, on the other hand, comes off the bye week which followed an embarrassing loss to New Orleans in Week 10.

“They’re right back in the mix,” Korner says of New York, which he sent out as a 2.5-point home favorite. “The Giants are the ones who are peaking now and money will be on New York. This spread could go up to -3 but I don’t think it’ll go much farther. Dallas has its big following. It’s a much bigger game than it was three weeks ago.”

[StarDust Bum]

Beyond the BCS: Big profits from NCAAF small conferences

Team to watch: East Carolina Pirates (8-2 SU, 5-5 ATS)

This week: -6.5 at North Carolina State

East Carolina has to be feeling good about itself at 8-2, which includes a current four-game winning streak in which it is beating opponents by an average of 36.25 points. It has to be feeling even better about getting to play North Carolina State Saturday.

The Wolfpack are 3-7 and one loss to Maryland away from their first winless ACC season since 1959. Don’t be fooled by N.C. State’s decent-looking pass defense (209.7 yards per game), which is going up against the strength of East Carolina (341.2 yards per game). The team is often getting blown out by halftime, at which point opponents resort to keeping the ball on the ground.

Quarterback Brandon Mitchell missed his sixth game of the season in last week’s loss to Boston College and the Wolfpack used three different signal-callers in his absence. Defensive tackle A.J. Ferguson is also questionable for NCSU with an undisclosed injury.


Team to beware: San Diego State Aztecs (6-4 SU, 5-5 ATS)

This week: +7 vs. Boise State

San Diego State has won three in a row but it has won those games by an average of 5.3 points, despite playing two of the three worst teams in the Mountain West Conference in Hawaii and New Mexico. Starting safety Gabe Lemon is likely still out with a neck stinger. Defensive tackle Sam Meredith returned last week from missing two games with a torn right labrum, but he is far from 100 percent.

Boise State is faring just fine without quarterback Joe Southwick, who suffered a broken ankle on Oct. 19. In his first two games, replacement Grant Hedrick threw one touchdown and two interceptions. In his last two, however, he tossed eight scores compared to only one pick in wins over Colorado State and Wyoming.


Total team: Wyoming Cowboys (4-6 SU, 5-5 O/U)

This week: 62 vs. Hawaii

After allowing 23 points or fewer in three of its first four games, Wyoming has given up at least 31 points in each of its last six, including at least 48 points in four straight contests. The Cowboys moved from a 4-3 defensive scheme to a 3-4 and they rarely bring more than the minimum number of pass rushers while basically refusing to play press coverage on wide receivers at the line of scrimmage.

They are facing Hawaii running back Joey Iosefa, who has 72 carries for 341 yards and two touchdowns in his past two outings. The good news is that Hawaii’s run defense (201.4 ypg) is almost as bad as Wyoming’s (236.3). Wyoming is averaging 196 rushing yards per game. This has shootout written all over it.

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NCAAF
Dunkel

Week 13

Rutgers at Central Florida
The Knights put their 3-1 home record on the line against a Rutgers team that is 19-7-1 ATS in its last 27 road games against a team with a winning home record. Rutgers is the pick (+17 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Knights favored by only 14. Dunkel Pick: Rutgers (+17 1/2). Here are all of this week's lined games.

THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 21

Game 109-110: Rutgers at Central Florida (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Rutgers 83.125; Central Florida 97.394
Dunkel Line: Central Florida by 14; 62
Vegas Line: Central Florida by 17 1/2; 57 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Rutgers (+17 1/2); Over

Game 111-112: Rice at UAB (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Rice 86.380; UAB 60.541
Dunkel Line: Rice by 26; 59
Vegas Line: Rice by 18; 63 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Rice (-18); Under

Game 113-114: UNLV at Air Force (9:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: UNLV 77.731; Air Force 71.205
Dunkel Line: UNLV by 6 1/2; 66
Vegas Line: Air Force by 2; 60
Dunkel Pick: UNLV (+2); Over




NCAAF
Long Sheet

Week 13


Thursday, November 21

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RUTGERS (5 - 4) at UCF (8 - 1) - 11/21/2013, 7:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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RICE (7 - 3) at UAB (2 - 8) - 11/21/2013, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
RICE is 98-68 ATS (+23.2 Units) in games played on turf since 1992.
RICE is 49-28 ATS (+18.2 Units) off a win against a conference rival since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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UNLV (5 - 5) at AIR FORCE (2 - 8) - 11/21/2013, 9:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
UNLV is 5-17 ATS (-13.7 Units) in road games in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
AIR FORCE is 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
AIR FORCE is 6-17 ATS (-12.7 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
AIR FORCE is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
AIR FORCE is 4-15 ATS (-12.5 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
AIR FORCE is 4-15 ATS (-12.5 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
AIR FORCE is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in a home game where the total is between 56.5 and 63 over the last 3 seasons.
AIR FORCE is 26-44 ATS (-22.4 Units) in home games after playing a conference game since 1992.
AIR FORCE is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
AIR FORCE is 25-47 ATS (-26.7 Units) off a loss against a conference rival since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
AIR FORCE is 1-1 against the spread versus UNLV over the last 3 seasons
AIR FORCE is 1-1 straight up against UNLV over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NCAAF
Short Sheet

Week 13

Thursday, November 21

Rutgers at Central Florida, 7:30 ET
Rutgers: 15-4 UNDER when playing with 6 or less days rest
Central Florida: 9-2 ATS after playing their last game on the road

Rice at UAB, 7:30 ET
Rice: 13-4 OVER in road games after playing 3 straight conference games
UAB: 16-6 ATS after 3 or more consecutive straight up losses

UNLV at Air Force, 7:30 ET
UNLV: 8-1 UNDER after playing 2 straight conference games
Air Force: 1-8 ATS as a favorite




NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 13

Thursday's games

Central Florida needed miraculous finish to win 39-36 at Temple, scoring 10 points in last 2:00 of game, week after they nipped Houston 19-14 at home; UCF lost 45-24 (+2.5) to Rutgers in bowl game four years ago, in teams' only meeting. UCF is 5-0 on road, with 38-0 win at FIU only one of the five by more than seven points. In fact, six of UCF's last seven games were won by 7 or less points. UCF is 3-3 as a favorite. Rutgers has internal troubles with player accusing an assistant coach of bullying; they got waxed 52-17 by Cincinnati last week, are 1-2 on road, with two of the three games going to OT. Rutgers is 2-0 as an underdog in 2013.

Home team won all four Rice-UAB games; Owls lost 44-24/45-26 in its two visits here. Rice won six of last seven games, covered last five; they are 3-2 SU away from home, with only one win by more than six points, 4-1 as a favorite. Blazers are 1-6 vs spread in last seven games, giving up 119 points in last two. UAB already played all seven of its road games; they're 0-2 at home vs I-A teams, losing by 14-3 points. UAB can't stop the run; five of its last six oppoents ran ball for 240+ yards. Rice's last three wins are by 26-38-38 points- they ran for 400+ yards in two of those three wins. Seven of last nine Blazer games went over the total.

UNLV can clinch bowl bid with win here, but they've lost last five visits to Air Force and haven't come closer than 17 points in any of the five; Rebels upset Falcons 38-35 (+10.5) at home LY, its first win vs Falcons in last six tries and second in last 11. UNLV split four road games, with wins at New Mexico/Nevada, but they lost last two game at home when they had chance to clinch bowl bid. Flyboys are 1-8 vs D-I teams, with only win over Army three weeks ago; favorites covered seven of their last nine games. Air Force is 1-4 at home, with losses by 32-33-7-35. Last four UNLV games stayed under the total.




NCAAF

Week 13

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Trend Report
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Thursday, November 21

7:30 PM
RUTGERS vs. CENTRAL FLORIDA
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Rutgers's last 6 games
Rutgers is 15-8 SU in its last 23 games
Central Florida is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Central Florida's last 5 games at home

7:30 PM
RICE vs. UAB
Rice is 6-17 SU in its last 23 games on the road
Rice is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
UAB is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 9 of UAB's last 11 games

9:30 PM
UNLV vs. AIR FORCE
UNLV is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Air Force
UNLV is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Air Force
Air Force is 1-8 SU in its last 9 games
Air Force is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home


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NCAAF

Thursday, November 21

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Thursday's NCAAF action: What bettors need to know
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Rutgers Scarlet Knights at Central Florida Knights (-17.5, 57.5)

Central Florida looks to follow up a remarkable road victory and stay unbeaten in the American Athletic Conference when it hosts Rutgers on Thursday. The No. 20 Knights' remarkable run through the league slate continued Saturday with perhaps the game of the weekend in college football as standout quarterback Blake Bortles led his team to 10 points in the final 1:06 to steal a 39-36 victory at Temple. Late drama is nothing new to Central Florida, which has won five games by seven points or less, four during its five-game winning streak.

While the Knights may eventually eye a conference crown and an automatic BCS berth, the Scarlet Knights still have plenty to play for as well. They remain one win shy of bowl eligibility for the eighth time in nine years. Rutgers also had a three-point win against Temple before it suffered a 52-17 loss to Cincinnati on Saturday, its third setback in four games.

TV: 7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.
LINE: Central Florida opened as low as 16.5 and jumped to 17.5. The total is set at 57.5 points.
WEATHER: Temperatures in mid 70s with a 27 percent chance of rain early on. Winds blowing NNE at 6 mph.

ABOUT RUTGERS (5-4, 2-3 AAC): Although it has a shot at gaining that bowl eligibility, a once-promising season has taken a bad turn for the Scarlet Knights, whose 1-3 slide has coincided with an allegation by a former player of bullying by a coach and an embarrassing home loss to the Bearcats. Gary Nova's touchdown pass late in the first quarter Rutgers cut Cincinnati's lead to 10-7, but the Bearcats responded with six straight touchdowns. Nova threw two interceptions and has nine picks against five touchdowns in the last four games.

ABOUT CENTRAL FLORIDA (8-1, 5-0): Many who had not heard of Bortles prior to the Temple game are now well aware of his exploits. In the comeback win over the Owls, the junior threw for a career-high 404 yards, leading Central Florida to 657 total yards, the most the program has amassed in a game since it joined the FBS ranks in 1996. Bortles ranks seventh in FBS in passer efficiency (168.6).

TRENDS:

* Scarlet Knights are 4-1 ATS in their last five Thursday games.
* Knights are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games.
* Under is 11-5 in Scarlet Knights last 16 road games.



Rice Owls at Alabama-Birmingham Blazers (+19, 63.5)

Rice looks to keep its chances at the Conference USA West Division title alive Thursday night as it visits Alabama-Birmingham. The Owls fell to division co-leader North Texas two weeks ago but bounced back in its previous game, rolling past Louisiana Tech 52-14 on the strength of Charles Ross' conference record-tying five rushing touchdowns. The Blazers have dropped four straight games and have surrendered a whopping 119 points in their last two defeats.

The Owls have built much of their success on a potent running game - and after struggling to gain much real estate in the loss to the Mean Green, they atoned with a sensational performance against the Bulldogs. Ross racked up 215 of Rice's 415 rushing yards, and the Owls finished with six scores on the ground to improve to 5-1 in conference play. UAB has been feasted on all season, allowing more than 42 points per game.

TV: 7:30 p.m. ET, Fox Sports 1
LINE: UAB is installed as a 19-point dog after being as low as +20. The over/under is set at 63 1/2.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-50s under partly cloudy skies. Wind will blow northwest across the width of the field at 6 mph.

ABOUT RICE (7-3, 5-1 Conference USA): Ross has been the centerpiece of one of the best rushing attacks in the country, surpassing the 1,000-yard plateau for the season last time out while leading the conference with 11 rushing scores. Quarterback Taylor McHargue has had an up-and-down season to date, throwing for 1,751 yards with 13 touchdowns and eight interceptions. He has also run for 359 yards, but had just one in the victory over Louisiana Tech.

ABOUT UAB (2-8, 1-5): Austin Brown and Jonathan Perry have formed a competent quarterback tandem for the Blazers, combining to throw for nearly 2,100 yards with 16 touchdowns and eight interceptions. Perry threw for a season-best 210 yards in last week's loss to East Carolina but was picked off twice - one of which was returned by Kyle Tudor for a 50-yard touchdown. Darrin Reaves (827 yards, nine TDs) and Jordan Howard (826 yards, two TDs) pace the run attack.

TRENDS:

* Owls are 5-0 ATS in their last five games vs. teams with losing records.
* Blazers are 1-7 ATS in their last eight conference games.
* Over is 7-0 in UAB's last seven games vs. teams with winning records.



UNLV Rebels at Air Force Falcons (-1, 61)

The UNLV Rebels look to get their season back on track as they visit Colorado for a showdown with the Air Force Falcons. The Rebels have lost three of their last four games - including back-to-back home defeats to San Jose State and Utah State - to spoil what had been a solid start to the year. The Falcons have struggled all season long but have been better of late, defeating Army at home before dropping a 45-37 shootout against host New Mexico.

The Rebels may be in for a struggle Thursday as they bring a shaky run defense into Falcon Stadium. UNLV ranks eighth in the 12-team Mountain West Conference in rushing yards allowed per game (234.5) while surrendering 22 touchdowns on the ground and 5 1/2 yards per carry. If Air Force has done one thing well this season, it's running the ball - the Falcons are second in the conference and 11th in the FBS in rushing yards per game at 277.

TV: 9:30 p.m. ET, ESPNU
LINE: Air Force is listed as a one-point fave, down slightly from a 1 1/2-point open. The over/under has held at 61.
WEATHER: Snow is in the forecast at Falcon Stadium with temperatures in the mid-teens and wind blowing across the length of the field at 13 mph.

ABOUT UNLV (5-3, 3-3 Mountain West): Thursday's X-factor could be Rebels senior quarterback Caleb Herring, who will look to solve a Falcons pass defense that ranks fourth in the conference in yards against per game. Herring has thrown for more than 250 yards in three straight games, with seven touchdowns and just three interceptions over that span. His performance could ultimately determine whether feature back Tim Cornett (970 yards, 11 TDs) has room to run.

ABOUT AIR FORCE (2-8, 0-6): Solving the Falcons' offense isn't difficult - Air Force has run the ball an unfathomable 538 times so far in 2013, while attempting just 141 passes. But stopping the Falcons' ground attack is a much harder task; they're averaging better than five yards per carry with 26 rushing touchdowns spread out among nine different players. Eighteen different Falcons have at least one carry, led by Anthony LaCoste with 111 for 781 yards and six scores.

TRENDS

* Rebels are 8-3-2 ATS in their last 13 games following a SU loss
* Falcons are 2-7 ATS in their last nine conference games.
* Over is 6-1 in the last seven meetings.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF
Dunkel

Week 13

FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 22

Game 115-116: Navy at San Jose State (9:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Navy 86.864; San Jose State 74.557
Dunkel Line: Navy by 12 1/2; 62
Vegas Line: San Jose State by 2 1/2; 57
Dunkel Pick: Navy (+2 1/2); Over


SATURDAY, NOVEMBER 23

Game 117-118: Nebraska at Penn State (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Nebraska 90.642; Penn State 94.703
Dunkel Line: Penn State by 4; 46
Vegas Line: Penn State by 1 1/2; 50
Dunkel Pick: Penn State (-1 1/2); Under

Game 119-120: Illinois at Purdue (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Illinois 81.825; Purdue 72.031
Dunkel Line: Illinois by 10; 52
Vegas Line: Illinois by 6 1/2; 56 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Illinois (-6 1/2); Under

Game 121-122: Pittsburgh at Syracuse (12:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 84.689; Syracuse 91.788
Dunkel Line: Syracuse by 7; 54
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 1; 49 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Syracuse (+1); Over

Game 123-124: Connecticut at Temple (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Connecticut 64.415; Temple 81.137
Dunkel Line: Temple by 16 1/2; 46
Vegas Line: Temple by 8; 50 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Temple (-8); Under

Game 125-126: Indiana at Ohio State (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 91.747; Ohio State 115.081
Dunkel Line: Ohio State by 23 1/2; 86
Vegas Line: Ohio State by 35; 81 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Indiana (+35); Over

Game 127-128: Michigan State at Northwestern (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Michigan State 106.465; Northwestern 90.005
Dunkel Line: Michigan State by 16 1/2; 37
Vegas Line: Michigan State by 7; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Michigan State (-7); Under

Game 129-130: East Carolina at NC State (12:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: East Carolina 87.542; NC State 85.653
Dunkel Line: East Carolina by 2; 59
Vegas Line: East Carolina by 6 1/2; 55
Dunkel Pick: NC State (+6 1/2); Over

Game 131-132: Idaho at Florida State (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Idaho 54.791; Florida State 131.076
Dunkel Line: Florida State by 76 1/2; 77
Vegas Line: Florida State by 57; 69
Dunkel Pick: Florida State (-57); Over

Game 133-134: Marshall at Florida International (6:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Marshall 83.088; Florida International 61.484
Dunkel Line: Marshall by 21 1/2; 52
Vegas Line: Marshall by 33; 55 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Florida International (+33); Under

Game 135-136: Kentucky at Georgia (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kentucky 78.273; Georgia 104.091
Dunkel Line: Georgia by 26; 57
Vegas Line: Georgia by 23 1/2; 63
Dunkel Pick: Georgia (-23 1/2); Under

Game 137-138: Kansas at Iowa State (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas 81.614; Iowa State 76.643
Dunkel Line: Kansas by 5; 50
Vegas Line: Iowa State by 5 1/2; 45 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas (+5 1/2); Over

Game 139-140: Duke at Wake Forest (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Duke 94.762; Wake Forest 82.944
Dunkel Line: Duke by 12; 45
Vegas Line: Duke by 4 1/2; 49 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Duke (-4 1/2); Under

Game 141-142: Boston College at Maryland (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boston College 85.349; Maryland 81.374
Dunkel Line: Boston College by 4; 60
Vegas Line: Maryland by 1; 54
Dunkel Pick: Boston College (+1); Over

Game 143-144: Wisconsin at Minnesota (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Wisconsin 114.357; Minnesota 96.116
Dunkel Line: Wisconsin by 18; 46
Vegas Line: Wisconsin by 16 1/2; 50
Dunkel Pick: Wisconsin (-16 1/2); Under

Game 145-146: Virginia at Miami (FL) (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Virginia 80.655; Miami (FL) 87.791
Dunkel Line: Miami (FL) by 7; 63
Vegas Line: Miami (FL) by 20 1/2; 58
Dunkel Pick: Virginia (+20 1/2); Over

Game 147-148: Cincinnati at Houston (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 84.715; Houston 97.650
Dunkel Line: Houston by 13; 52
Vegas Line: Houston by 4; 58
Dunkel Pick: Houston (-4); Under

Game 149-150: Memphis at Louisville (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Memphis 78.824; Louisville 99.586
Dunkel Line: Louisville by 21; 48
Vegas Line: Louisville by 24 1/2; 43
Dunkel Pick: Memphis (+24 1/2); Over

Game 151-152: Vanderbilt at Tennessee (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Vanderbilt 96.312; Tennessee 87.951
Dunkel Line: Vanderbilt by 8 1/2; 59
Vegas Line: Tennessee by 3; 53 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Vanderbilt (+3); Over

Game 153-154: Massachusetts at Central Michigan (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Massachusetts 57.443; Central Michigan 74.550
Dunkel Line: Central Michigan by 17; 42
Vegas Line: Central Michigan by 10; 47
Dunkel Pick: Central Michigan (-10); Under

Game 155-156: Bowling Green at Eastern Michigan (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Bowling Green 93.860; Eastern Michigan 56.556
Dunkel Line: Bowling Green by 37 1/2; 52
Vegas Line: Bowling Green by 24; 56 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Bowling Green (-24); Under

Game 157-158: Hawaii at Wyoming (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Hawaii 70.534; Wyoming 67.215
Dunkel Line: Hawaii by 3 1/2; 66
Vegas Line: Wyoming by 6; 61 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Hawaii (+6); Over

Game 159-160: Western Kentucky at Texas State (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Western Kentucky 75.442; Texas State 69.410
Dunkel Line: Western Kentucky by 6; 57
Vegas Line: Western Kentucky by 4; 50 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Western Kentucky (-4); Over

Game 161-162: Michigan at Iowa (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Michigan 95.195; Iowa 94.696
Dunkel Line: Michigan by 1; 50
Vegas Line: Iowa by 6; 46
Dunkel Pick: Michigan (+6); Over

Game 163-164: Arizona State at UCLA (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona State 107.187; UCLA 108.122
Dunkel Line: UCLA by 1; 66
Vegas Line: Arizona State by 2 1/2; 61 1/2
Dunkel Pick: UCLA (+2 1/2); Over

Game 165-166: Colorado State at Utah State (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Colorado State 85.372; Utah State 100.088
Dunkel Line: Utah State by 14 1/2; 53
Vegas Line: Utah State by 8 1/2; 58
Dunkel Pick: Utah State (-8 1/2); Under

Game 167-168: USC at Colorado (9:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: USC 109.543; Colorado 72.949
Dunkel Line: USC by 36 1/2; 50
Vegas Line: USC by 22; 54
Dunkel Pick: USC (-22); Under

Game 169-170: Texas A&M at LSU (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Texas A&M 106.904; LSU 104.737
Dunkel Line: Texas A&M by 2; 76
Vegas Line: LSU by 4 1/2; 71
Dunkel Pick: Texas A&M (+4 1/2); Over

Game 171-172: Mississippi State vs. Arkansas (12:21 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Mississippi State 93.517; Arkansas 79.997
Dunkel Line: Mississippi State by 13 1/2; 47
Vegas Line: Mississippi State by 1 1/2; 50
Dunkel Pick: Mississippi State (-1 1/2); Under

Game 173-174: Oregon at Arizona (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oregon 116.254; Arizona 98.769
Dunkel Line: Oregon by 17 1/2; 72
Vegas Line: Oregon by 21; 67 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+21); Over

Game 175-176: UTEP at Tulane (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: UTEP 61.850; Tulane 76.185
Dunkel Line: Tulane by 14 1/2; 55
Vegas Line: Tulane by 17 1/2; 49
Dunkel Pick: UTEP (+17 1/2); Over

Game 177-178: California at Stanford (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: California 71.598; Stanford 116.403
Dunkel Line: Stanford by 45; 50
Vegas Line: Stanford by 31 1/2; 56
Dunkel Pick: Stanford (-31 1/2); Under

Game 179-180: TX-San Antonio at North Texas (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: TX-San Antonio 73.694; North Texas 90.857
Dunkel Line: North Texas by 17; 52
Vegas Line: North Texas by 7; 49 1/2
Dunkel Pick: North Texas (-7); Under

Game 181-182: BYU at Notre Dame (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: BYU 101.765; Notre Dame 103.267
Dunkel Line: Notre Dame by 1 1/2; 58
Vegas Line: BYU by 1; 54 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Notre Dame (+1); Over

Game 183-184: Baylor at Oklahoma State (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baylor 119.654; Oklahoma State 113.096
Dunkel Line: Baylor by 6 1/2; 83
Vegas Line: Baylor by 10; 78
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma State (+10); Over

Game 185-186: Middle Tennessee State at Southern Mississippi (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Middle Tennessee State 78.843; Southern Mississippi 51.744
Dunkel Line: Middle Tennessee State by 27; 49
Vegas Line: Middle Tennessee State by 23; 55
Dunkel Pick: Middle Tennessee State (-23); Under

Game 187-188: Georgia State at Arkansas State (3:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Georgia State 56.695; Arkansas State 88.546
Dunkel Line: Arkansas State by 32; 52
Vegas Line: Arkansas State by 23 1/2; 57
Dunkel Pick: Arkansas State (-23 1/2); Under

Game 189-190: Washington at Oregon State (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 98.866; Oregon State 98.110
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1; 68
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 191-192: UL-Monroe at South Alabama (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: UL-Monroe 78.172; South Alabama 74.003
Dunkel Line: UL-Monroe by 4; 60
Vegas Line: South Alabama by 3 1/2; 56 1/2
Dunkel Pick: UL-Monroe (+3 1/2); Over

Game 193-194: SMU at South Florida (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: SMU 81.762; South Florida 73.284
Dunkel Line: SMU by 8 1/2; 52
Vegas Line: SMU by 4; 56
Dunkel Pick: SMU (-4); Under

Game 195-196: New Mexico at Fresno State (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Mexico 70.264; Fresno State 97.549
Dunkel Line: Fresno State by 27 1/2; 63
Vegas Line: Fresno State by 32; 66
Dunkel Pick: New Mexico (+32); Under

Game 197-198: New Mexico State at Florida Atlantic (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Mexico State 53.043; Florida Atlantic 84.514
Dunkel Line: Florida Atlantic by 31 1/2; 61
Vegas Line: Florida Atlantic by 22; 55 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Florida Atlantic (-22); Over

Game 199-200: Tulsa at Louisiana Tech (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tulsa 69.268; Louisiana Tech 67.987
Dunkel Line: Tulsa by 1 1/2; 50
Vegas Line: Tulsa by 3 1/2; 54 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Louisiana Tech (+3 1/2); Under

Game 201-202: Oklahoma at Kansas State (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oklahoma 97.514; Kansas State 105.918
Dunkel Line: Kansas State by 8 1/2; 58
Vegas Line: Kansas State by 4 1/2; 54
Dunkel Pick: Kansas State (-4 1/2); Over

Game 203-204: Missouri at Mississippi (7:45 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Missouri 108.460; Mississippi 101.307
Dunkel Line: Missouri by 7; 53
Vegas Line: Missouri by 2 1/2; 57
Dunkel Pick: Missouri (-2 1/2); Under

Game 205-206: Utah at Washington State (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Utah 96.063; Washington State 88.492
Dunkel Line: Utah by 7 1/2; 59
Vegas Line: Washington State by 1 1/2; 53 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Utah (+1 1/2); Over

Game 207-208: Boise State at San Diego State (10:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Boise State 91.228; San Diego State 87.128
Dunkel Line: Boise State by 4; 62
Vegas Line: Boise State by 7; 57 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego State (+7); Over


OTHER MAJOR GAMES:

Game 241-242: Chattanooga at Alabama (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chattanooga 65.989; Alabama 119.785
Dunkel Line: Alabama by 54
Vegas Line: Alabama by 49
Dunkel Pick: Alabama (-49)

Game 243-244: The Citadel at Clemson (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: The Citadel 65.736; Clemson 111.317
Dunkel Line: Clemson by 45 1/2
Vegas Line: Clemson by 39 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Clemson (-39 1/2)

Game 245-246: Coastal Carolina at South Carolina (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Coastal Carolina 68.286; South Carolina 105.354
Dunkel Line: South Carolina by 37
Vegas Line: South Carolina by 34 1/2
Dunkel Pick: South Carolina (-34 1/2)

Game 247-248: Georgia Southern at Florida (2:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Georgia Southern 60.913; Florida 93.126
Dunkel Line: Florida by 32
Vegas Line: Florida by 27 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Florida (-27 1/2)

Game 249-250: Alabama A&M at Georgia Tech (1:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Alabama A&M 41.842; Georgia Tech 98.067
Dunkel Line: Georgia Tech by 56
Vegas Line: Georgia Tech by 51 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Georgia Tech (-51 1/2)

Game 251-252: Old Dominion at North Carolina (12:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Old Dominion 74.675; North Carolina 88.690
Dunkel Line: North Carolina by 14
Vegas Line: North Carolina by 17
Dunkel Pick: Old Dominion (+17)

[StarDust Bum]

Games to Watch - Week 13

November 19, 2013

Wisconsin at Minnesota
As of early Tuesday, most betting shops had Wisconsin (8-2 straight up, 9-0-1 against the spread) installed as a 16-point favorite. Gary Andersen’s squad has won five straight games both SU and ATS since losing 31-24 at Ohio St. The Badgers have covered the spread in eight consecutive games as double-digit favorites, including six such spots this season. UW beat up on Indiana by a 51-3 count as a 27-point home favorite last Saturday. James White led three Badgers who eclipsed the 100-yard mark by rushing for 208 yards and two touchdowns. Melvin Gordon and White have rushed for 1,306 and 1,156 yards, respectively, and both have run for 12 touchdowns apiece. Since suffering back-to-back losses vs. Iowa and at Michigan, Minnesota (8-2 SU, 7-3 ATS) has won four in a row both SU and ATS. The Gophers have had two weeks to prepare for the Badgers. They beat Penn St. 24-10 as 2.5-point home favorites two weeks ago. Philip Nelson threw for a TD and ran for another, while David Cobb ran 27 times for 139 yards and one TD. Minnesota is 5-6 ATS as a home underdog since Jerry Kill took over for Tim Brewster. The ‘under’ is 7-3 overall for Wisconsin, 2-2 in its road assignments. The ‘over’ is 6-4 overall for the Gophers, 3-3 in their home games. Kickoff is scheduled for noon Eastern on ESPN.

Oklahoma at Kansas State
As of early Tuesday, most books had Kansas St. (6-4 SU, 6-4 ATS) listed as a 3.5-point home favorite. Bill Snyder’s team lost its first three Big 12 games but has bounced back to win four in a row. The Wildcats had covered the spread in five consecutive games before slipping past TCU by a 33-31 count Saturday as 11.5-point home ‘chalk.’ Jack Cantele’s 41-yard field goal with three seconds remaining was the game winner. KSU is led by a pair of outstanding RBs in Daniel Sams and John Hubert. This duo has combined to rush for 1,516 yards and 19 TDs. Oklahoma (8-2 SU, 5-5 ATS) got an outstanding halftime chat from Bob Stoops when it went to intermission tied with Iowa St. at 10-10 Saturday in Norman. Whatever Stoops said, it worked because the Sooners scored all 38 points in the second half en route to a 48-10 triumph as 24-point home favorites. Damien Williams rushed for a team-high 128 yards and two TDs on just 10 carries. OU redshirt freshman QB Trevor Knight got his first significant playing time since Week 2 against the Cyclones. After Blake Bell was injured, Knight came in and rushed 10 times for 123 yards and one TD. Knight completed 8-of-14 throws for 61 yards. There’s no official word out of Norman yet, but I would expect Knight to get his first start Saturday since a 16-7 home win over West Va. on Sept. 7. The ‘over’ is 3-1 in OU’s last four games, but totals have been an overall wash (5-5) for the Sooners and in their road games (2-2). K-St. has seen the ‘under’ go 6-4 overall, 5-2 in its home games. Kickoff is slated for noon Eastern on Fox Sports 1.

Texas A&M at LSU
As of early Tuesday, most books had LSU (7-3 SU, 4-5-1 ATS) favored by three. Les Miles’s team had an open date after dropping a 38-17 decision at Alabama. Texas A&M (8-2 SU, 5-5 ATS) also had a bye week following a 51-41 win over Mississippi St. as a 19-point home ‘chalk.’ Johnny Manziel threw for 446 yards and five TDs against the Bulldogs. Manziel has thrown for 3,313 yards with a 31/11 TD-INT ratio. The reigning Heisman Trophy winner also has 600 rushing yards and eight TDs. Manziel’s favorite target is Mike Evans, who has 57 receptions for 1,263 yards and 12 TDs. LSU sophomore RB Jeremy Hill has rushed for 964 yards and 13 TDs. Zach Mettenberger has a 20/7 TD-INT ratio for the Tigers, who have two of the SEC’s top WRs. Odell Beckham Jr. has made 51 catches for 1,051 yards and eight TDs, while Jarvis Landry has hauled in 63 receptions for 972 yards and eight TDs. When these schools met in College Station last year, Texas A&M raced out to a 12-0 lead before LSU responded with 24 unanswered points. The Tigers held on for a 24-19 triumph as 3.5-point road favorites. Hill ran for 127 yards and one TD on 18 carries, but the defense was the story of the day. This unit limited Manziel to only 27 rushing yards and intercepted him three times. The ‘over’ is 8-2 overall for the Aggies, 2-0 in their road outings. The ‘over’ is 8-2 overall for LSU, 4-1 in its home games. CBS will have the telecast at 3:30 p.m. Eastern.

Arizona State at UCLA
This is a crucial game in the Pac-12 South race. As of early Tuesday, most books had Arizona St. (8-2 SU, 5-5 ATS) listed as a two-point road favorite. Todd Graham’s team has won five in a row, but it has failed to cover the number in back-to-back contests. The Sun Devils beat Oregon St. 30-17 as 13.5-point home favorites last weekend, but the Beavers hooked up their supporters with a backdoor cover thanks to a 29-yard TD pass from Sean Mannion to Connor Hamlett with 2:42 remaining. UCLA (8-2 SU, 7-3 ATS) has won all five of its home games while compiling a 4-1 spread record. Jim Mora Jr.’s team suffered its only losses in back-to-back weeks at Stanford and at Oregon. The Bruins beat Washington 41-31 as three-point home favorites last Friday night. Freshman LB/RB Myles Jack ran for 59 yards and four TDs on 13 totes. Brett Hundley threw two TD passes without being intercepted against the Huskies. Hundley has a 20/8 TD-INT ratio and seven rushing scores. UCLA has won three of the last four head-to-head meetings with ASU both SU and ATS, including last year’s 45-43 win in Tempe. The ‘over’ is 7-3 for Arizona St., 3-1 in its road games (if we count a neutral-site game against Notre Dame at Cowboys Stadium as on the road). The ‘under’ is 6-4 overall for UCLA, but the ‘over’ is 4-1 in its five home games. FOX will have television coverage at 7:00 p.m. Eastern.

Missouri at Ole Miss
As of early Tuesday, most spots had Missouri (9-1 SU, 8-1-1 ATS) listed as a three-point favorite. There was no total yet, but I gave the game a 62-point tally. Gary Pinkel’s squad will welcome senior QB James Franklin back to the lineup following a four-game absence. Franklin separated his shoulder in a 41-26 win at Georgia on Oct. 12. He could’ve returned as early as a home game vs. Tennessee on Nov. 2, but there was no reason to rush him back. If the Tigers hadn’t taken comfortable leads vs. UT and at Kentucky (Nov. 9), I’m confident Pinkel would’ve turned to Franklin. My point is that he’s actually been ready to play for several weeks despite not seeing any game action. Before the injury, Franklin was completing 67.5 percent of his throws with a 14/3 TD-INT ratio. He had also rushed for 290 yards and three TDs in 5.5 games. Missouri has covered the number in all three of its games as a road favorite this year. The Tigers have to win both of their remaining games (vs. Texas A&M next weekend) to win the SEC East and get to Atlanta. If they fall, South Carolina wins the division. Ole Miss (7-3 SU, 6-4 ATS) has won four in a row and has a 4-1 spread record in its last five games. The Rebels thumped Troy 51-28 as 28-point home favorites last weekend. Bo Wallace threw for 272 yards and three touchdowns without an interception. He also rushed nine times for 66 yards and one score. For the season, Wallace has a 17/5 TD-INT ratio and five rushing TDs. After missing three consecutive games, senior RB Jeff Scott returned to rush for 54 yards on 11 carries against the Trojans. Scott, who has run for a team-high 488 yards while averaging 7.6 YPC, also had two catches for 25 yards. On Hugh Freeze’s watch, Ole Miss owns a 3-1 spread record in four games as a home underdog. The ‘over’ is 6-4 overall for the Rebels, 4-2 in their home games. The ‘over’ is 6-4 overall for the Tigers, 4-0 in their road assignments. ESPN will have the telecast at 7:45 p.m. Eastern.

[StarDust Bum]

Tech Trends - Week 13

November 20, 2013



Thursday, Nov. 21

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

RUTGERS at UCF...Rutgers 3-9 vs. line last 12 on board since late 2012. Scarlet Knights are, however, 10-4 as dog since 2011. UCF 18-9 last 27 vs. spread as host. Slight to UCF, based on recent trends.


RICE at UAB...Owls 7-3 vs. line TY, 16-7-1 last 24 on board since late 2011. Rice 9-3 vs. line last 12 away, 7-2 last 9 as chalk. UAB 5-12 last 17 since mid 2012. Rice, based on team trends.


UNLV at AIR FORCE...Falcs 6-17 last 23 on board. But home team has covered last 8 in series and Rebs have lost and failed to cover last five at Colorado Springs. UNLV 4-10 as road chalk since 2003. Slight to Air Force, based on series home trends.


Friday, Nov. 22

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

NAVY at SAN JOSE STATE...Wins and covers last two years for San Jose in series. Spartans, however, no covers last 3 at home TY as road team has covered in 7 of 9 Spartans games TY. Mids 22-8 last 30 as visiting dog since late in 2005 season. Navy, based on extended trends.


Saturday, Nov. 23

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend


NEBRASKA at PENN STATE...Bo Pelini has won the last two years vs. Penn State. Huskers have also won and covered 2 of last 3 on road TY after dropping seven straight away from home vs. spread prior. Penn State has cooled, just 2-4 vs. line last six TY. Slight to Nebraska, based on recent trends.


ILLINOIS at PURDUE...Purdue 2-8 vs. line TY for Hazell, Boilermakers now 5-15 last 19 on board since early 2012. Illini -7 vs. spread as visitor for Tim Beckman since LY. Slight to Illinois, based on current Purdue negatives.


PITT at SYRACUSE...Pitt has covered last four in series. But Cuse has covered five of last six at Carrier Dome. Pitt 1-5 vs. spread last 6 away from home. Slight to Cuse, based on recent trends.


UCONN at TEMPLE...Owls have covered last three in series. UConn 2-7 vs. line TY, 5-12 last 17. Temple covers last six TY. Temple, based on team trends.


INDIANA at OHIO STATE...Buckeyes have failed to cover last two years vs. Hoosiers, but note that OSU is 7-3 vs. spread in 2013 (4-2 at Horseshoe) and has covered 11 of last 14 on board since mid 2012. IU no covers last four on Big Ten road. OSU, based on team trends.


MICHIGAN STATE at NORTHWESTERN...Cats have lost last six SU and are 1-6 vs. line last 7 TY, all on heels of 14-1 spread run. MSU 7-1 vs. line last 8 TY and has covered seven straight away from East Lansing. MSU, based on recent trends.


EAST CAROLINA at NC STATE...NCS 1-5 vs. line last six TY. Pirates have covered 5 of last 8 TY. ECU, based on team trends.


IDAHO at FLORIDA STATE...Noles 8-2 vs. line TY, 4-1 laying 30 or more. Vandals 5-18 last 23 on board. FSU, based on team trends.


MARSHALL at FIU...Herd now 0-7-1 as visiting chalk for Doc Holliday. But Marshall also 5-2 as DD chalk this season. FIU just 3-6 vs. line TY, and Golden Panthers 11-21 last 32 on board since early 2011. Slight to Marshall, based on FIU woes.


KENTUCKY at GEORGIA...Bulldogs just 1-7 vs. line last 8 TY. Dawgs also no covers last four at Athens. Cats have covered 4 of last 5 in series. UK, based on team trends.


KANSAS at IOWA STATE...ISU 0-7 SU last seven TY, 0-1 as chalk in 2013. Cyclones 2-5 last 7 as chalk. Weis 4-2 vs. line last six TY. Road team has covered last two years in series. KU, based on team trends.


DUKE at WAKE FOREST...Duke has covered last two years in series, and Devils have won and covered last five TY. Blue Devils have also won and covered first three on road in 2013. Deacs 4-9 last 13 on board. Duke, based on team trends.


BOSTON COLLEGE at MARYLAND...BC 1-3 vs. line away TY, 1-9 SU and vs. spread away since LY. But Eagles have won and covered last two vs. Terps. Md 2-4 vs. line last six TY. Slight to BC, based on series trends.


WISCONSIN at MINNESOTA...Axe and Slab of Bacon! Badgers 9-1 vs. line TY, and Gary Andersen teams at Utah State & Wiscy 20-3 vs. spread since 2012! Gophers have covered last 4 TY and are 7-2 vs. spread in 2013. Badgers have won last three meetings by 18 or more. Wisconsin, based on Andersen numbers.

VIRGINIA at MIAMI-FLORIDA...Cavs no covers last 4 TY, 3-6-1 vs. spread in 2012, now 5-16-3 last 24 on board since late 2011. Al Golden no covers last 5 in 2013 but 18-11-1 vs. line last 30 on board. Slight to Miami, based on Virginia woes.


CINCINNATI at HOUSTON (at Rice Stadium)...Houston 9-1 vs. line TY, 11-1 last 12 since late 2012. Cincy has covered last 4 as dog since mid 2011. Slight to UH, based on team trends.


MEMPHIS at LOUISVILLE...Cards only 1-5 vs. line last five TY, 2-4 as home chalk, and Charlie Strong just 7-13 laying DDs since 2010. Tigers 6-3 last 9 as dog. Memphis, based on team trends.


VANDERBILT at TENNESSEE...James Franklin 5-1 vs. line last 6 on SEC road, 23-13 overall vs. spread since arriving at Vandy in 2011. Dores have covered 3 of last 4 at Knoxville. Vols 6-12 vs. line last 18 at Neyland Stadium (3-3 TY for Butch Jones). Vandy, based on recent trends.


UMASS at CENTRAL MICHIGAN...CMU 4-1 vs. line last 5 TY as Chips rallying late. Mass has covered 3 of last 5 away. Chips 5-3 last 8 as chalk, won and covered 42-21 vs. Minutemen LY. Slight to CMU, based on team trends.


BOWLING GREEN at EASTERN MICHIGAN...MAC DD chalk has been good TY, BGSU 2-1 in role TY and EMU 0-5 as MAC DD dog. Falcs 6-1 vs. line last 7 as visitor, covers last 4 as visiting chalk. EMU 9-21 as Ypsilanti dog since 2006. BGSU, based on team trends.


HAWAII at WYOMING...Wyo 1-5 vs. line last 5 TY, no covers last 3 as chalk. Norm Chow 4-2 vs. line last 6 away. Slight to Hawaii, based on team trends.


WESTERN KENTUCKY at TEXAS STATE...Franchione 7-3 last 10 as dog. Petrino no covers last 4 TY, 1-4 vs. spread as visitor. Slight to Texas State, based on Franchione dog trends.


MICHIGAN at IOWA...Brady Hoke 3-5 vs. line last 8 TY, one cover last six away from Ann Arbor. Iowa 6-2 vs. line last 8 TY. Iowa, based on recent trends.


ARIZONA STATE at UCLA...Bruins have won and covered last 2 and 3 of last 4 in series. Sun Devils 2-5 vs. spread last seven away from home in regular season. Mora 4-1 vs. line at home TY after Washington win, 8-4 vs. spread at Rose Bowl since LY. UCLA, based on team trends.


COLORADO STATE at UTAH STATE...Rams have covered last two years in series. CSU 11-3 vs. spread last 14 on board and has covered five straight as visitor, also 4-1 last five as dog. Ags only 2-3 vs. line last five. CSU, based on team trends.


SOUTHERN CAL at COLORADO...Trojans 5-1 SU and vs. line for Orgeron, although SC still just 2-10 vs. line last 12 away from home. But Troy has won and covered big the last two years vs. Buffs. SC, based on team trends.


TEXAS A&M at LSU...J Football no covers first two on road TY (is this really only the third road game for A&M?). Ags 2-4 vs. line last six TY and lost at home vs. LSU in 2012. Les Miles 3-5 vs. line last 8 TY but 4-1 vs. spread last five as SEC host. Ags 2-1 as dog since LY. Slight to LSU, based on team trends.


MISSISSIPPI STATE at ARKANSAS (at Little Rock)...Maroon has covered 2 of 3 as SEC visitor in 2013 after previous problems in role. Bielema only 2-7 vs. line last 9 TY. MSU, based on recent Hogs woes.


OREGON at ARIZONA...Ducks 13-2 vs. line last 15 away from Autzen Stadium. They've also won and covered the last two against Arizona. Rich-Rod no covers 5 of last 7 TY, but UA is 2-0 as home dog since LY. Oregon, based on team trends.


UTEP at TULANE...Miners 6-19-1 last 26 on board since mid 2011. Wave 8-1 vs. line last nine at Superdome! Tulane, based on team trends.


CALIFORNIA at STANFORD...Note that road team has covered last four Big Games. Tree has covered last 2 at home TY but just 5-11 vs. spread last 16 as host. Cal and Sonny Dykes 2-9 vs. line TY, 2-14 last 16 on board. Slight to Stanford, based on team trends.


UTSA at NORTH TEXAS...UNT has won and covered last 5 TY and 7-1 vs. spread last 8 in 2013 and covered last six at Denton. UNT, based on recent trends.


BYU at NOTRE DAME...BYU covered easily at ND LY in 17-14 loss after holding 14-3 halftime lead. Irish 3-8 last 11 on board and 1-4 vs. line at home TY, ND 19-34-2 as home chalk since 2003. If getting points, note Cougs 11-1 last 12 as dog. BYU, based on team trends.


BAYLOR at OKLAHOMA STATE...OSU had won and covered six in a row vs. Baylor prior to LY. Bears 14-2 last 16 on board since mid 2012. Cowboys 9-2-1 vs. line last 12 at Stillwater. Slight to OSU, based on team and series trends.


MTSU at SOUTHERN MISS...USM 0-22 SU, 4-18 vs. line since LTY, no covers last seven in 2013, 1-9 vs. line TY. MTSU 5-1 last six as road favorite. MTSU, based on USM woes.


GEORGIA STATE at ARKANSAS STATE...Remarkable GSU has covered 7 of last 8 TY. Ark State has covered last 2 but had dropped six straight vs. line prior. GSU, based on recent trends.


WASHINGTON at OREGON STATE...Beavs had covered nine straight in series prior to LY. OSU only 1-4 vs. spread at home TY, but UW 1-4 vs. line last 5 TY after UCLA and 3-10 vs. spread away last 13 reg.-season games. OSU, based on extended trends.


ULM at SOUTH ALABAMA...USA no covers last three after five covers in a row prior. ULM has covered 7 of last 8 on Sun Belt road. FIU, based on recent trends.


SMU at SOUTH FLORIDA...USF only 2-4 vs. line at home TY, 3-13-1 last 17 vs. spread at Raymond James Stadium, though Bulls have covered 4 of last 5 TY. SMU 3-1 vs. line last 4 in 2013. Slight to SMU, based on team trends.


NEW MEXICO at FRESNO STATE...FSU only 3-6 vs. line TY and has failed to cover all five at the Dog House in 2013. Bob Davie has covered 4 of last 6 TY. Slight to UNM, based on recent trends.


TULSA at LOUISIANA TECH...Tulsa 2-8 vs. line TY after Marshall cover. La Tech 4-11 last 15 on board. Slight to Tulsa, based on extended LT woes.


OKLAHOMA at KANSAS STATE...Note that the road team has covered last four in series. But Bill Snyder 14-4 vs. line last 18 as host. Stoops only 6-9 vs. spread last 15 on board. KSU, based on Bill Snyder trends.


MISSOURI at OLE MISS...Hugh Freeze 26-9 vs. line last three years at Ark State & Ole Miss. But Mizzou has covered 7 of last 8 TY. Rebs 3-1 as dog TY and 7-3 since 2012 in role. Ole Miss also 10-4 vs. line at home for Freeze. Slight to Ole Miss, if dog, based on team trends.


UTAH at WASHINGTON STATE...If favored, note Utes 0-4 vs. line as road chalk since 2011. Home team has covered last two years in series. WSU 12-6 vs. line last 17 for Leach since mid 2012. WSU, based on team and series trends.


BOISE STATE at SAN DIEGO STATE...Rare revenge spot for Boise. Broncos 1-1 in role since 2009 (counts bowl vs. TCU in 2009). Boise 2-0 as road chalk TY and 22-8 last 30 as visiting favorite. But SDSU 4-1-1 vs. line last six TY. Slight to SDSU, based on recent trends.

[StarDust Bum]

Thursday, November 21

Game Score Status Pick Amount


Rutgers - 7:30 PM ET Central Florida -17.5 500 POD # 2

Central Florida - Under 59.5 500


Rice - 7:30 PM ET Rice -17 500 POD # 1

Alabama-Birmingham - Over 63.5 500


UNLV - 9:30 PM ET UNLV +2 500 POD # 1

Air Force - Under 60 50