The Bum's November's College Football POD's+Trends+Stats+News !

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NCAAF
Short Sheet

Week 11

Saturday, November 9

Iowa at Purdue, 12:00 ET
Iowa: 39-19 ATS after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6
Purdue: 0-6 ATS in home games after allowing 37 points or more last game

Western Kentucky at Army, 12:00 ET
W Kentucky: 12-3 ATS in road games
Army: 61-86 ATS in non-conference games

SMU at Cincinnati, 12:00 ET
SMU: 4-13 ATS off 2 straight wins against conference rivals
Cincinnati: 22-10 UNDER after outgaining opp by 175 or more total yards

NC State at Duke, 4:00 ET
NC State: 33-15 UNDER in weeks 10 through 13
Duke: 5-15 ATS in home games after gaining 125 or less passing yards in last game

Tulsa at East Carolina, 3:45 ET
Tulsa: 13-3 UNDER after failing to cover the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6
E Carolina: 3-11 ATS off a win against a conference rival

Illinois at Indiana, 3:30 ET
Illinois: 2-10 ATS against conference opponents
Indiana: 12-1 OVER after playing 2 straight conference games

TCU at Iowa State, 12:00 ET
TCU: 4-12 ATS when playing with 6 or less days rest
Iowa State: 39-21 UNDER after a game where they forced 1 or less turnovers

Florida State at Wake Forest, 12:00 ET
Florida St: 4-13 ATS in road games off 3 straight wins against conference rivals
Wake Forest: 11-2 UNDER off 1 or more consecutive unders

UAB at Marshall, 12:00 ET
UAB: 0-6 ATS in road games after playing a game at home
Marshall: 13-4 OVER in home games in weeks 10 through 13

Virginia Tech at Miami Florida, 7:00 ET
Virginia Tech: 0-8 ATS in road games when playing on a Saturday
Miami FL: 7-0 ATS off a loss against a conference rival

Penn State at Minnesota, 12:00 ET
Penn State: 11-3 ATS when playing with 6 or less days rest
Minnesota: 5-15 ATS at home after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6

Missouri at Kentucky, 12:00 ET
Missouri: 6-0 ATS after a game where they committed 1 or less turnovers
Kentucky: 0-6 ATS off a home win

Vanderbilt at Florida, 12:00 ET
Vanderbilt: 27-11 ATS in road games after playing their last game on the road
Florida: 2-10 ATS in home games after a loss by 6 or less points

Fresno St at Wyoming, 10:15 ET
Fresno St: 24-45 ATS after allowing 6.25 or more yards/play in their previous game
Wyoming: 7-0 ATS after allowing 525 or more total yards in their previous game

Kansas State at Texas Tech, 12:00 ET
Kansas State: 10-2 ATS after playing a conference
Texas Tech: 0-7 ATS after being outrushed by 150 or more yards last game

BYU at Wisconsin, 12:00 ET
BYU: 6-0 UNDER after gaining 475 or more total yards in their previous game
Wisconsin: 7-0 ATS when playing on a Saturday

Texas at West Virginia, 12:00 ET
Texas: 9-21 ATS in road games after 5 or more consecutive straight up wins
West Virginia: 16-6 ATS after 5 games where they forced 2 or more turnovers

Nebraska at Michigan, 3:30 ET
Nebraska: 43-26 ATS after failing to cover the spread in 2 out of their last 3
Michigan: 4-13 ATS in home games after being outgained by opp by 125 or more

Hawaii at Navy, 3:30 ET
Hawaii: 2-10 ATS after 2 or more consecutive losses against the spread
Navy: 30-15 ATS after having lost 2 out of their last 3 games

Kansas at Oklahoma State, 4:00 ET
Kansas: 5-20 ATS after allowing 31 points or more in 3 straight games
Oklahoma State: 9-2 ATS after playing 2 straight conference games

USC at California, 3:00 ET
USC: 6-0 UNDER when the total is between 49.5 and 56
California: 4-12 ATS as an underdog

Notre Dame at Pittsburgh, 8:00 ET
Notre Dame: 1-9 ATS in road games after gaining 7.25 or more yards/play previous game
Pittsburgh: 6-0 ATS after having lost 2 out of their last 3

Mississippi State at Texas A&M, 3:30 ET
Mississippi St: 1-8 ATS in road games after playing a conference game
Texas A&M: 24-9 ATS in home games in weeks 10 through 13

Utah State at UNLV, 8:00 ET
Utah State: 13-2 ATS when playing on a Saturday
UNLV: 2-12 ATS off 3 or more consecutive unders

Florida Int at Mid Tenn State, 4:00 ET
Florida INT: 4-13 ATS after gaining 125 or less rushing yards in 3 straight games
Mid Tenn State: 13-4 ATS after allowing 125 or less passing yards in their last game

Southern Miss at Louisiana Tech, 7:00 ET
Southern Miss: 2-9 ATS in road lined games
Louisiana Tech: 10-2 ATS in home games off 2 or more consecutive unders

Auburn at Tennessee, 12:00 ET
Auburn: 12-2 ATS in road games after 3 games where they committed 1 or less turnovers
Tennessee: 3-12 ATS in home games after 2 or more consecutive straight up losses

Houston at Central Florida, 12:00 ET
Houston: 6-0 ATS after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6 games
Central Florida: 0-6 ATS off a home win against a conference rival

UCLA at Arizona, 10:00 ET
UCLA: 5-15 ATS in road games after scoring 42 points or more last game
Arizona: 14-5 OVER after playing 2 straight conference games

LSU at Alabama, 8:00 ET
LSU: 17-6 ATS after gaining 275 or more rushing yards last game
Alabama: 10-27 ATS at home after 2 games where they committed 1 or less turnovers

San Diego State at San Jose State, 10:30 ET
San Diego State: 9-1 UNDER after gaining 475 or more total yards in 2 games
San Jose State: 11-3 ATS as a favorite

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 11

Saturday's games
Top 13 games

Virginia Tech is 7-3 in last ten games vs Miami, with underdogs covering four of last five, but Hokies lost to Duke/BC last two weeks, as program slides with poor play from senior QB Thomas (-4 in turnovers last week in game they outgained BC by 157 yards). Miami lost at Florida State last week, its first loss of year- they had snuck by previous two games, winning by 4-3 points. Curious to see how they bounce back here.

Penn State won its last four games vs Minnesota, winning 33-21/28-24 in last two visits here, but Lions allowed 107 points in losing both away games this year and in between, needed OT to win its last two at home. Gophers are on serious roll, winning last three games SU despite being underdog in all three- they upset Nebraska last home game. Big Dozen home favorites are 10-7 vs spread in conference play this season.

Florida won at least 16 in row vs Vanderbilt, covering four of last six, but Commodores covered four of last five played in Swamp. After years of domination, total yardage in last two meetings was just +40/+33 in favor of Florida. Gators rallied from down 23-3 last week, still lost to Georgia for third year in row; they've lost last three games overall but are 3-0 at home this year, winning by 18-14-20. Vandy is 2-2 as an underdog, had last week off, so that helps here.

8-0 Fresno State has four wins by five or less points or in OT, so trip to chilly Laramie (temp expected to be 32/clear) could be dicey. Wyoming cooled off after 3-1 start, allowing 52-51 points in their last two games. Fresno won 42-14 at home LY, in first series meeting as MW rivals. Mountain West home dogs are just 2-11 vs spread this season. Cowboys allowed 256+ rushing yards in four of last five games, 482 passing yards in the other.

West Virginia (+7) won 48-45 at Texas LY, outgaining Longhorns by 56 yards, but Mountaineers lost three of last four games, allowing 43 ppg, even with OT upset win at TCU last week. Texas won its last five in a row after a 1-2 start; they're 2-1 on road, nipping Iowa State by point, waxing TCU 30-7 after ugly loss at BYU. Big X home underdogs are 5-5 vs spread. West Virginia allowed 433+ total yards in its last five games.

Arizona State won last two games vs Utah 37-7/35-14; 6-2 Sun Devils scored 54-53-55 points in winning last three games since losing to Notre Dame in Dallas- ASU is 4-2 as a favorite, but 1-1 SU on road, losing by 14 at Stanford, winning big at Wazzu. Pac-12 home underdogs are 2-9 vs spread this season. Utah is 1-3 in last four games but the win was upset of Stanford here, so they're capable. Utes are 2-3 as an underdog in '13.

Nebraska got lucky on 45-yard Hail Mary pass to beat Northwestern on last play last week, or both Pelini brothers might've been fired last week. Home team won both Husker-Michigan league games by decisive scores, with Nebraska losing 45-17 here two years ago. Michigan got squashed 29-6 at Michigan State last week after scoring 48.3 ppg in previous three games. Big Dozen home favorites are 10-7 vs spread this year.

Underdogs are 7-0-1 vs spread in last eight Notre Dame-Pitt games; Irish won last three, by 3-3-6 points; they got phanton PI call LY when down 20-6 that kept drive alive, then beat Pitt late. ND won three of last four visits here, winning by 3-21-6. ACC home underdogs are 3-1 vs spread in non-league games. Panthers lost last three I-A games; they're 0-3 as an underdog this season. Irish are 3-1 on road, with only loss at Michigan.

Auburn is 8-1, scoring 41.7 ppg in last three games; they've covered last five I-A games and won last five games vs Tennessee, with dogs 4-0 vs spread in last four. Tigers won 26-22/34-10 in last two visits here, where Vols are 4-1 this year, with only loss in OT to Georgia. Tennessee lost its last two games on road, allowing 76 points. SEC home underdogs are 9-6 vs spread. Auburn won at A&M/Arkansas in last three weeks.

Central Florida won three of last four games with Houston, with wins by 2-5-7 points; Cougars lost lost 37-32/31-29 in last two visits to Orlando, but teams haven't met since '10. UCF is 6-1 with only loss by FG here vs South Carolina- they're 3-1 as a favorite and scored 100 points in last two games. Houston's only loss was 47-46 at home to BYU; they're 2-0 as an underdog, winning 49-14 (+7) at Rutgers week after BYU loss.

UCLA crushed Arizona 66-10 LY, outgaining Wildcats 611-257 in game that ended Bruins' five-game series skid; UCLA lost last four visits to Tucson, with three of four losses by 14+ points. Favorites covered four of last five series games; they're 22-10 vs spread in Pac-12 games so far this season. Arizona won its last three games, scored 31+ in its last four; its only losses were 31-13 (+9) at Washington, 38-31 (+5.5) at USC.

Alabama lost six of last seven times ESPN GameDay visited its campus; they've also lost five of last six home games with LSU, with only win in '09, a 24-15 (-7.5) Tide win. Bama is 4-2 in last six series games after an 0-5 (mostly pre-Saban) skid; three of last four were decided by 4 or less points. LSU outgained Tide by 104 yards in 21-17 home loss LY; both its losses this year were by FG on road, at Georgia/Ole Miss.

San Jose State won last three games vs San Diego State by 4-25-21, with favorites 4-2 vs spread in last six meetings; Aztecs lost 35-10/31-10 last two times they came here. Spartans won last four games after a 1-3 start, scoring 34+ points in all four games. San Diego State won four of its last five games, with only loss in OT to unbeaten Fresno- they're 1-1-1 as dogs. Mountain West home teams are 5-24 vs spread, 3-13 if favored.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF

Saturday, November 9

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Saturday's NCAAF Top 25 betting cheat sheet: Afternoon action
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Florida State Seminoles at Wake Forest Demon Deacons (+35, 55)

As national title talk for the Seminoles goes, so goes Heisman Trophy chatter for quarterback Jameis Winston. The redshirt freshman leads the ACC in total offense (331.9 yards per game), passing average (312.8), pass efficiency (201.1) and passing touchdowns (24). Winston's 2,502 passing yards is already the sixth-highest total among ACC freshmen all-time and he is on pace to become the most prolific freshman quarterback in conference history.

Michael Campanaro, the Demon Deacons' all-time leading receiver with 229 receptions for 2,506 yards, is expected to miss 4-to-6 weeks with a broken collarbone. Sherman Ragland III will be leaned on in Campanaro's absence and the sophomore performed well against Syracuse, stepping up to set career bests by grabbing 10 receptions for 91 yards. Quarterback Tanner Price ranks fourth in the ACC with 1,956 passing yards,

LINE: The Seminoles have held steady as 35-point favorites, with the total currently 55.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-50s with sunny skies.

TRENDS:

* Seminoles are 7-2 ATS in their last nine games.
* Demon Deacons are 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games vs. teams with winning records.
* Under is 13-3 in Wake Forest's last 16 games on fieldturf.


Missouri Tigers at Kentucky Wildcats (+13.5, 56)

Redshirt freshman QB Maty Mauk has kept the Tigers' high-powered offense on track with James Franklin (shoulder) sidelined, and he had his best game yet in a 31-3 win over Tennessee last week. Missouri rolled up 339 rushing yards against the Volunteers and ranks second in the SEC with 237.2 yards per game on the ground. The defense has been overshadowed somewhat but Missouri ranks fourth in the SEC in scoring defense (20.6).

The Wildcats have struggled in coach Mark Stoops' first season, but they've been close to pulling off a quality win with narrow defeats at South Carolina and Mississippi State. The offense was impressive last week, albeit against Alabama State, as Whitlow rushed for 101 yards and two touchdowns and threw for two more scores. Kentucky has faced trouble stopping the run, allowing 197.6 yards per game.

LINE: The Tigers opened -14 and are now -13.5, with the total set at 56.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-50s with wind blowing across the field at 11 mph.

TRENDS:

* Tigers are 4-1 ATS in their last five conference games.
* Wildcats are 0-6 ATS in their last six games following an SU win.
* Over is 18-7-1 in Kentucky's last 26 games following an ATS win.


Auburn Tigers at Tennessee Volunteers (+7, 55)

The Tigers feature the nation’s sixth-best rushing attack (306.2 yards per game), led by running back Tre Mason, who rushed for 168 yards and four touchdowns last week to earn SEC Offensive Player of the Week honors. Auburn did not know if quarterback Nick Marshall would start last week because of a shoulder injury, but the junior finished with 177 yards of total offense and is expected to be completely healthy against Tennessee.

The Volunteers have to shore up their run defense after allowing a season-high 339 yards on the ground against Missouri. Tennessee has allowed 76 points the past two weeks in losses to Alabama and Missouri. Dobbs completed 26-of-42 passes against Missouri and is the third freshman to start at quarterback for Tennessee in the past four years.

LINE: Auburn opened as a 7-point fave, while the total opened at 55.
WEATHER: Partly cloudy skies are in the forecast with temperatures in the high-50s.

TRENDS:

* Tigers are 5-0 ATS against teams with losing records.
* Volunteers are 7-19-1 ATS in their last 27 home games vs. teams with winning road records.
* Over is 9-4 in Tennessee's last 13 conference games.


Kansas State Wildcats at Texas Tech Red Raiders (-2.5, 59.5)

Former walk-on defensive end Ryan Mueller was named Big 12 Defensive Player of the Week after posting seven tackles (including two for loss) and one sack. Sparked by Mueller’s effort, the Wildcats allowed only one offensive snap inside their 20 and held Iowa State to 249 total yards, narrowly missing out on its first shutout in a conference game since 2003.

Despite being the focal point of the Cowboys’ defense last Saturday, Jace Amaro set career highs with 15 catches and 174 receiving yards – becoming the first Red Raider since Michael Crabtree to record at least eight receptions in eight straight games. Amaro also logged his fourth consecutive 100-yard game, the most by a Texas Tech player since Crabtree posted seven in a row in 2007.

LINE: Texas Tech opened as at 2.5-point favorite and the total opened at 59.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures are expected to be in the low-60s with wind blowing across the field at 8 mph.

TRENDS:

* Wildcats are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 games vs. teams with winning records.
* Red Raiders are 10-2-1 ATS in their last 13 games following a double-digit home loss.
* Over is 23-9 in Texas Tech's last 32 games.


Mississippi State Bulldogs at Texas A&M Aggies (-19, 66.5)

The Bulldogs are on pace to break a 31-year-old school-record for total offense, averaging 447.1 yards, and Prescott is the catalyst. He has rushed for 100 yards or more three times and has accounted for 17 touchdowns. The Bulldogs' secondary was shredded against LSU and Auburn but has allowed only 312 passing yards over the past two games.

Aggies quarterback Johnny Manziel has put on quite an encore after his Heisman Trophy campaign as a redshirt freshman, and he ranks fifth in the nation with 2,867 passing yards to go along with 564 rushing yards and accounting for 34 touchdowns. He has one of the nation's top receivers in Mike Evans, who needs 61 receiving yards to surpass Ryan Swope's school record of 1,207 in 2011. D

LINE: Texas A&M is a 19-point favorite after opening at -18. The total has held steady at 66.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-70s under partly cloudy skies.

TRENDS:

* Bulldogs are 1-6 ATS in their last seven road games.
* Aggies are 5-1 ATS in their last six games on grass.
* Under is 9-3 in Texas A&M's last 12 games following an ATS win.


Brigham Young Cougars at Wisconsin Badgers (-8, 55.5)

Outside linebacker Kyle Van Noy leads the Cougars’ defense, ranking second among active FBS players in career sacks with 26. Hill is a dangerous dual threat, passing for 339 yards and three touchdowns in BYU’s 37-20 victory over Boise State on Oct. 25. The sophomore is sixth in the nation averaging 357.5 yards of total offense per game, and has completed 65.4 percent of his passes during the Cougars’ five-game winning streak.

White scored two touchdowns in last week’s 28-9 victory over Iowa, and leads all active FBS players in career rushing touchdowns (41) and total touchdowns (43). The Badgers average 7.26 yards per play, leading the Big Ten and ranking seventh in the nation. The Wisconsin defense gets particularly tough in the red zone, leading the country in holding opponents out of the end zone 61.9 percent of the time.

LINE: Wisconsin opened -7.5 and is now -8. The total is currently 55.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-50s with wind blowing across the width of the field at 12 mph.

TRENDS:

* Cougars are 13-5 ATS in their last 18 road games.
* Badgers are 7-0-1 ATS in their last eight games.
* Under is 16-5 in BYU's last 21 games against teams with winning records.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF

Saturday, November 9

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Saturday's NCAAF Top 25 betting cheat sheet: Evening action
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Kansas Jayhawks at Oklahoma State Cowboys (-31, 53.5)

No. 11 Oklahoma State knows it can't overlook visiting Kansas on Saturday, even though the Jayhawks enter with a five-game losing streak and haven't won a Big 12 Conference game since 2010. Kansas quarterback Jake Heaps needs 84 passing yards to reach 5,000 for his career and could have receivers Tony Pierson (concussion), Rodriguez Coleman (leg), Josh Ford (concussion) and Andrew Turzilli (ankle) back this week.

First-year defensive coordinator Glenn Spencer has the Cowboys ranked in the top 20 in several categories, including third-down defense (ninth, 30.2 percent), red-zone defense (14th, 71.4 percent) and rushing defense (18th, 122.9 yards per game). The Cowboys, who have created at least one turnover in 16 straight games, are tied for fifth nationally with a plus-10 turnover margin.

LINE: Oklahoma State is a 31-point favorite after opening at -30.5. The total has held steady at 53.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-60s with wind blowing across the length of the field at 5 mph.

TRENDS:

* Jayhawks are 2-7 ATS in their last nine games on fieldturf.
* Cowboys are 8-1 ATS in their last nine home games.
* Kansas is 2-8 ATS in the last 10 head-to-head meetings.


Arizona State Sun Devils at Utah Utes (+6.5, 63.5)

No. 24 Arizona State visits Utah for a Pac-12 Conference matchup on Saturday. The Sun Devils have defeated the Utes by a lopsided margin in each of the last two meetings, with the most recent occurring in Tempe. Taylor Kelly passed for 326 yards and three scores in last season's meeting as the Sun Devils scored 37 points on the Utes with 512 yards of total offense.

Coming off a 55-21 blowout of Washington State, the Sun Devils own a one-game lead in the Pac-12 South, and a win against Utah will only get them closer to a spot in the conference championship. The Utes are no strangers to upsets, having done just that to then-No. 5 Stanford earlier this season, but the offense potentially could be without Travis Wilson. The standout quarterback suffered a sprained finger late in the first half against Arizona.

LINE: ASU opened -7 and is now -6.5. The total opened 64.5 and is down to 63.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-50s and wind blowing diagonally out of the SW at 6 mph.

TRENDS:

* Sun Devils are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a bye week.
* Utes are 14-6 ATS in their last 20 games following an SU loss.
* Over is 18-4 in Arizona State's last 22 games following an ATS win.


Virginia Tech Hokies at Miami Hurricanes (-7, 44)

Logan Thomas posted a career-high 429 yards of total offense against Boston College to give him 9,463 for his career, moving him past Tyrod Taylor for the most in school history. Thomas also committed two of the Hokies’ four giveaways and has turned the ball over 31 times since the start of the 2012 season – the third-highest individual total in FBS over that span.

Miami's Duke Johnson – the second-leading rusher in the conference – will miss the rest of the season after he broke his right ankle against Florida State. Dallas Crawford, who replaced an injured Johnson during the team’s Oct. 17 victory over North Carolina with 137 yards rushing and two scores, will be one of three backs to fill the void of a player who posted an ACC-high 1,393 all-purpose yards.

LINE: Miami opened as a 6.5-point fave, but has been bet up to -7. The total is unmoved at 44.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-70s with a 30 percent chance of showers.

TRENDS:

* Hokies are 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games.
* Hurricanes are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games.
* Under is 8-2 in the last 10 head-to-head meetings.


Houston Cougars at Central Florida Knights (-10.5, 64)

No. 21 Central Florida looks to claim its fourth consecutive victory when it hosts Houston with first place in the American Athletic Conference on the line. The Knights, who have scored 100 total points in their last two games, bring a dynamic offense led by quarterback Brian Bortles. With 15 touchdowns and four interceptions on the season, Bortles has proven both efficient and lethal through seven games.

The Cougars, too, have one lone slip-up fading farther into the rearview. They're coming off conference wins against Rutgers and South Florida, and boast the 12th-best scoring offense in the country at 41.4 points per game. Freshman John O'Korn provides an equal, if not stronger match for Bortles having thrown for more yardage, 2,121 yards, and touchdowns, 22, with just four interceptions.

LINE: The Knights opened -11.5-point but are now -10.5. The total is set at 64.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-70s with wind blowing diagonally out of the NE at 6 mph.

TRENDS:

* Cougars are 9-19 ATS in their last 28 road games vs. teams with winning home records.
* Knights are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games.
* Under is 7-2 in Houston's last nine games following a bye week.


LSU Tigers at Alabama Crimson Tide (-13, 55)

Running back Jeremy Hill faces a tough test against the stout Alabama run defense, but he collected 107 yards and a score in last year’s 21-17 loss to the Crimson Tide - and he’s averaging 7.2 yards per carry this season with 12 touchdowns. Wide receivers Odell Beckham and Jarvis Landry have eight touchdown receptions apiece, but quarterback Zach Mettenberger has struggled over his last three games (four TDs and five interceptions).

Quarterback AJ McCarron, who is 33-2 as a starter, has entered the Heisman Trophy discussion by completing 72.6 percent of his passes for 15 touchdowns with two interceptions over the last seven games. Alabama’s offensive line hasn't allowed a sack since the third quarter against Ole Miss on Sept. 28, and running backs T.J. Yeldon and Kenyan Drake have combined for 17 rushing touchdowns this season.

LINE: Alabama has seen a sharp bump in the odds from an opening of -11 to -13. The total is 55.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-50s with partly cloudy skies.

TRENDS:

* Tigers are 0-4-1 ATS in their last five games following an ATS loss.
* Crimson Tide are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 games following a bye week.
* Under is 7-3-1 in Alabama's last 11 home games.


Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Pittsburgh Panthers (+4, 51)

No. 25 Notre Dame has made a habit of doing just enough to win lately, which also sums up how its recent meetings with Pittsburgh have gone. The Fighting Irish have won four in a row entering Saturday’s road contest against the Panthers, including three by four points or fewer after a 38-34 victory over Navy last weekend. Notre Dame’s last five games against Pittsburgh have been decided by an average of four points.

The Fighting Irish are the only FBS team with five wins by seven points or fewer this season. The Panthers, who have dropped three straight in this series, have lost two straight and three of four overall after falling 21-10 at Georgia Tech last Saturday. Despite the loss, defensive tackle Aaron Donald had a day to remember with 11 tackles (including six for losses – the most by a player in FBS in 2013), two forced fumbles and a sack.
LINE: The Irish opened as 5-point faves, but the line has moved to -4. The total has held steady at 51.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-40s with partly cloudy skies.

TRENDS:

* Fighting Irish are 2-5 ATS in their last seven November games.
* Panthers are 20-7 ATS in their last 27 games following an SU loss.
* Under is 5-1 in Pittsburgh's last six games against independents.


UCLA Bruins at Arizona Wildcats (-1.5, 56)

In addition to the return of rushing leader Jordon James to full health, the Bruins are also expected to have linebacker Eric Kendricks in the starting lineup against Arizona. Kendricks, who is fifth in the Pac-12 at eight tackles a game, did not play versus Colorado due to a shoulder injury. The Bruins enter the game sixth in the conference in total defense, one spot behind the Wildcats.

Arizona's B.J. Denker is the second-lowest rated quarterback in the Pac-12, although he has posted seven touchdown passes and one interception in the last four games. The Wildcats don’t have a receiver with more than 21 catches. Denker has scored 11 rushing touchdowns this season, two more than any previous Arizona quarterback.

LINE: What opened as a pick has shifted to Arizona -1.5. The total has risen slightly from 55.5 to 56.
WEATHER: Wind will blow south across the length of the field at 7 mph with temperatures in the mid-60s.

TRENDS:

* Bruins are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS loss.
* Wildcats are 1-5 ATS in their last six games vs. teams with winning records.
* Over is 7-3 in Arizona's last 10 home games.


Fresno State Bulldogs at Wyoming Cowboys (+9, 79)

Bulldogs quarterback Derek Carr ranks second nationally in both passing (382.6 yards per game) and touchdown throws (28), and the trio of wide receivers Davante Adams, Josh Harper and Isaiah Burse has combined for 195 catches. Carr threw for 268 yards and three touchdowns in a 42-14 home victory over Wyoming last season, while Harper had a school-record 17 catches last week for 253 yards and two scores.

The Cowboys have struggled defensively all season, but their up-tempo offense could cause trouble for Fresno State. Running back Shaun Wick gained 234 yards on 17 carries against San Jose State, and underrated quarterback Brett Smith ranks eighth nationally in total offense at 349.8 yards per game. Fresno State’s explosive offense thrives on the big play, which could mean trouble for the Cowboys defense.

LINE: The Bulldogs opened -11 and are now -9. The total is currently 79.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-30s with wind blowing diagonally out of the SW at 9 mph.

TRENDS:

* Bulldogs are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 road games.
* Cowboys are 1-7 ATS in their last eight home games vs. teams with winning road records.
* Under is 11-4 in Wyoming's last 15 games following an ATS win.

[StarDust Bum]

Where the action is: Saturday's biggest NCAAF line moves

Bowl season is rapidly approaching with college football in Week 11 of the schedule. We talk with Michael Perry of Sportsbook.ag about some of the biggest line moves on the board this weekend:

Hawaii Warriors at Navy Midshipmen – Open: +19.5, Move: +16.5

This Mountain West matchup has had its spread trimmed as many as three points at some books. Sharp money was on Hawaii earlier in the week and 69 percent of action is on the Warriors.

“Maybe wiseguys are thinking this will be a letdown game for Navy, who are coming off a heartbreaking loss to Notre Dame,” says Perry. “On Sunday, we got sharp play on Hawaii +19.5 so moved to +18. Then on Monday, we got another sharp play on the 'Bows so moved to our current number.”


UCLA Bruins at Arizona Wildcats – Open: Pick, Move +2

This Pac-12 battle was bumped off a pick’em by early money on the Bruins. Some books are dealing Arizona as a slight home favorite but those spread are moving with more money on UCLA.

“A sharp play came on Sunday on the Bruins pick 'em, so moved to UCLA -1.5,” says Perry. “Heavy majority of the early public money was on the Bruins, so moved to UCLA -2. About 73 percent of the money is on the Bruins.”


Auburn Tigers at Tennessee Volunteers – Open: +7, Move +8.5

Wiseguys bought up Auburn at the key number of a touchdown quickly and forced books to go to -8. The Public got involved later in the week, tacking a half point on that spread with 88 percent of the action on the Tigers.

“Auburn has been a covering machine recently (6-0 ATS streak going) and has been popular with many in the betting public,” says Perry.


Virginia Cavaliers at North Carolina Tar Heels - Open: +15, Move: +13.5

Action on the home underdog has pushed this line past the key two-touchdown number but books expect some buyback on the Cavaliers before Saturday’s kickoff.

“This is a big line move in that it goes through 14,” says Perry. “I could see us settling on 14 soon on this game and will leave it there until gametime.”


Mississippi State Bulldogs at Texas A&M Aggies – Open: -18.5, Move: -20

This one has jumped as high as -20 with money on Johnny Manziel and the Aggies. Sharps took a chunk of that action on Texas A&M before the betting public added on another half point.

“Big chunk of betting public was still betting on A&M with about 90 percent of the money on Texas A&M,” says Perry.

[StarDust Bum]

Saturday, November 9

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Vanderbilt - 12:00 PM ET Vanderbilt +10.5 500
Florida - Under 41 500

Texas Christian - 12:00 PM ET Iowa State +7 500
Iowa State - Over 45.5 500

Missouri - 12:00 PM ET Missouri -14 500
Kentucky - Under 57.5 500

Penn State - 12:00 PM ET Penn State +2.5 500 POD # 4
Minnesota - Over 47.5 500

Florida State - 12:00 PM ET Wake Forest +34 500 POD # 3
Wake Forest - Under 55.5 500

Southern Methodist - 12:00 PM ET Southern Methodist +7.5 500
Cincinnati - Over 67 500 POD # 2

Iowa - 12:00 PM ET Iowa -16 500
Purdue - Under 44.5 500

Auburn - 12:00 PM ET Auburn -7 500
Tennessee - Over 56 500

Kansas State - 12:00 PM ET Kansas State +2.5 500
Texas Tech - Over 61 500

Alabama-Birmingham - 12:00 PM ET Marshall -24.5 500 POD # 1
Marshall - Over 67 500

Western Kentucky -12:00 PM ET Army +6 500
Army - Over 56.5 500

Arkansas - 12:21 PM ET Mississippi -17 500
Mississippi - Over 54.5 500

Virginia - 12:30 PM ET North Carolina -12 500
North Carolina - Under 52.5 500

Western Michigan - 1:00 PM ET Eastern Michigan +2.5 500
Eastern Michigan - Over 59 500

Tulane - 2:00 PM ET Tulane +9.5 500
Texas-San Antonio - Over 49.5 500

[StarDust Bum]

Am giving you the noon games up to 4pm Pacific.....I should be back home by then to list my POD'S for the night games.....

Am going to my pre-op surgery this morning...surgery is on thursday.....but i'll have my secretary post my plays since my

Arm will be in a sling for awhile.......rotor cuff tear.......OUCH !!




Your noon PODS:



Southern California - 3:00 PM ET Southern California -17 500
California - Over 57 500

Nevada - 3:30 PM ET Nevada +9 500
Colorado State - Over 66 500

Illinois - 3:30 PM ET Illinois +9 500 POD # 2
Indiana - Over 78 500

Syracuse - 3:30 PM ET Syracuse +5 500
Maryland - Under 56.5 500

Nebraska - 3:30 PM ET Michigan -6 500 POD # 3
Michigan - Over 57.5 500

Boston College - 3:30 PM ET Boston College -24.5 500
New Mexico State - Over 62 500

Mississippi State - 3:30 PM ET Mississippi State +19 500
Texas A&M - Over 68.5 500

Brigham Young - 3:30 PM ET Brigham Young +9.5 500 POD # 4
Wisconsin - Under 55.5 500

Texas El Paso - 3:30 PM ET North Texas -25 500
North Texas - Over 55.5 500

Hawaii - 3:30 PM ET Hawaii +16.5 500
Navy - Under 52 500

Tulsa - 3:45 PM ET East Carolina -16.5 500 POD # 1
East Carolina - Over 51.5 500

North Carolina State - 4:00 PM ET Duke -10 500 POD # 1
Duke - Under 55.5 500

Kansas - 4:00 PM ET Oklahoma State -30 500 DOUBLE POD
Oklahoma State - Over 52.5 500

Arizona State - 4:00 PM ET Arizona State -7 500
Utah - Under 63.5 500

Florida International - 4:00 PM ET Middle Tennessee -18 500
Middle Tennessee - Over 48.5 500

[Kaptain]

good luck with the Early Ones BUM....thanks

[StarDust Bum]

EVENING POD'S :


Texas - 7:00 PM ET Texas -5.5 500
West Virginia - Under 55 500

Houston - 7:00 PM ET Central Florida -13 500 POD # 5
Central Florida - Over 67 500

Virginia Tech - 7:00 PM ET Miami -5 500 POD # 1
Miami - Under 43.5 500

Arkansas State - 7:00 PM ET Arkansas State +3 500
UL Monroe - Over 54.5 500

Southern Mississippi - 7:00 PM ET Louisiana Tech -17 500
Louisiana Tech - Under 53 500

Notre Dame - 8:00 PM ET Pittsburgh +3.5 500
Pittsburgh - Under 51 500 POD # 6

Colorado - 8:00 PM ET Colorado +28 500
Washington - Under 63 500

Louisiana State - 8:00 PM ET Alabama -12 500 POD # 4
Alabama - Under 54.5 500

Utah State - 8:00 PM ET Utah State -15.5 500
UNLV - Over 56.5 500

UCLA - 10:00 PM ET Arizona -2.5 500 POD # 3
Arizona - Over 58.5 500

Fresno State - 10:15 PM ET Wyoming +8.5 500
Wyoming - Over 80 500

San Diego State - 10:30 PM ET San Diego State +6.5 500 POD # 2
San Jose State - Over 58 500

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF
Long Sheet

Week 12


Tuesday, November 12

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OHIO U (6 - 3) at BOWLING GREEN (6 - 3) - 11/12/2013, 7:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
BOWLING GREEN is 2-0 against the spread versus OHIO U over the last 3 seasons
BOWLING GREEN is 1-1 straight up against OHIO U over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BUFFALO (7 - 2) at TOLEDO (6 - 3) - 11/12/2013, 7:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TOLEDO is 25-12 ATS (+11.8 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 10 points since 1992.
TOLEDO is 52-33 ATS (+15.7 Units) in home games since 1992.
TOLEDO is 52-33 ATS (+15.7 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
TOLEDO is 40-22 ATS (+15.8 Units) in home games against conference opponents since 1992.
TOLEDO is 46-27 ATS (+16.3 Units) in home games in games played on turf since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
BUFFALO is 1-0 against the spread versus TOLEDO over the last 3 seasons
TOLEDO is 1-0 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF

Week 12

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Trend Report
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Tuesday, November 12

7:30 PM
OHIO vs. BOWLING GREENOhio is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Bowling Green
Ohio is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 games when playing Bowling Green
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Bowling Green's last 7 games
Bowling Green is 13-5 SU in its last 18 games

7:30 PM
BUFFALO vs. TOLEDOThe total has gone OVER in 6 of Buffalo's last 9 games
Buffalo is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Toledo is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Toledo's last 15 games

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF
Dunkel

Week 12

Ohio at Bowling Green
The Bobcats look to bounce back from their 30-3 loss to Buffalo last week and build on their 5-0 ATS record in their last 5 games following a defeat of more than 20 points. Ohio is the pick (+10) according to Dunkel, which has the Falcons favored by only 7. Dunkel Pick: Ohio (+10). Here are all of today's games.

TUESDAY, NOVEMBER 12

Game 301-302: Ohio at Bowling Green (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Ohio 80.025; Bowling Green 87.195
Dunkel Line: Bowling Green by 7; 66
Vegas Line: Bowling Green by 10; No Total
Dunkel Pick: Ohio (+10); N/A

Game 303-304: Buffalo at Toledo (7:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 89.738; Toledo 85.617
Dunkel Line: Buffalo by 4; 44
Vegas Line: Toledo by 4; No Total
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (+4); N/A

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 12

Tuesday's games

Ohio won its last three games vs Bowling Green, winning last three here by 1-7-11 points; underdogs covered five of last seven in series. Bobcats are 1-2 as underdogs this year, 0-2 on road (2-2 SU on road), losing by a combined score of 79-10 at Louisville/Buffalo- thery allowed 200+ yards on ground in three of last four games. Bowling Green is 4-2 as a favorite this year- they crushed Miami last week, after losing couple games by a total of four points to Miss State/Toledo. Falcons are 4-1 at home, with all four wins by 17+ points.

Buffalo won/covered its last six I-A games, with 41-21 win at Kent the closest of the six; Bulls lost three of four games with Toledo, but this is only second meeting since '07 (Toledo won 25-20 -7.5 LY). Bulls won at Western Michigan/Kent during this streak. Toledo won five of last six in I-A since opening with losses at Florida/Mizzou; they won consecutive nailbiters vs Navy/Bowling Green before crushing Eastern Michigan last game. Rockets ran ball for 314.3 yards/game over last four games. Ohio State/Baylor are only teams to run for more than 147 yards vs Buffalo.




NCAAF

Tuesday, November 12

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Tuesday's NCAAF action: What bettors need to know
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Ohio Bobcats at Bowling Green Falcons (-10, 49)

Second place in the Mid-American Conference's East Division will be on the line Tuesday night when the Bowling Green Falcons entertain the Ohio Bobcats. Bowling Green kept its division championship hopes alive a week ago, trouncing Miami (Ohio) 45-3 behind 252 passing yards and three touchdowns from quarterback Matt Johnson. The Bobcats saw their two-game winning streak come to an abrupt halt with a 30-3 drubbing at the hands of the Buffalo Bulls.

Following a pair of narrow losses to the Mississippi State Bulldogs and Toledo Rockets, Bowling Green returned to the strategy that made it a division favorite - stifling defensive pressure. The Falcons limited Miami (Ohio) to just 228 total yards and 16 first downs while forcing three turnovers - one of which BooBoo Gates returned for a touchdown. Ohio has had little trouble putting up points this season but ran into a brick wall against the formidable Bulls.

TV: 7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN3
LINE: Bowling Green enters as a 10-point favorite, with the over/under set at 49.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-20s at game-time with partly cloudy skies and wind blowing diagonally out of the northwest at 4 mph.

ABOUT OHIO (6-3, 3-2 MAC): Ohio is led by senior quarterback Tyler Tettleton, who has had a remarkable season but couldn't get anything going against Buffalo. Tettleton completed just 14 of 31 passes for 126 yards while failing to throw for a touchdown for the first time since the Bobcats' season opener. It was the same kind of story for feature back Beau Blankenship, who managed just 68 yards on 20 carries with a longest rush of nine yards.

ABOUT BOWLING GREEN (6-3, 4-1 MAC): Johnson needed a strong effort against the winless RedHawks after being held without a scoring pass in each of his previous two games. The sophomore QB completed 20 of 26 passes while overcoming his first interception since a 48-7 triumph over Murray State back on Sept. 21. Second-year running back Travis Greene finished with 14 carries for 112 yards against Miami (Ohio), moving him past the 1,000 mark for the season.

TRENDS:

* Bobcats are 1-5 ATS in their last six road games vs. teams with winning home records.
* Falcons are 7-0 ATS in their last seven games following a SU win of more than 20 points.
* Under is 8-2-1 in Ohio's last 11 games.
* The road team is 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings.


Buffalo Bulls at Toledo Rockets (-3.5, 54)

The Buffalo Bulls put their unbeaten conference record on the line Tuesday night as they visit the Toledo Rockets in a matchup between Mid-American Conference foes. Buffalo improved its MAC East mark to 5-0 while extending its overall winning streak to seven games with a 30-3 drubbing of the Ohio Bobcats. The Rockets kept alive their slim hopes of a West title, trouncing Eastern Michigan 55-16 for its their fourth consecutive victory.

In addition to a pair of win streaks being at stake, Tuesday's showdown pits the stout Buffalo defense against a formidable Toledo offense. The Bulls have been sensational on the defensive side of the ball since being torched for 110 points in season-opening losses to Ohio State and Baylor, surrendering just 78 points in seven games since. They'll face a stiff test from the Rockets, who have erupted for a whopping 175 points over their last four outings.

TV: 7:30 p.m. ET, ESPNU
LINE: Toledo is listed as a 3 1/2-point favorite, with the over/under set at 54.
WEATHER: The skies will be partly cloudy with temperatures in the high-20s and wind blowing diagonally out of the northwest at 7 mph.

ABOUT BUFFALO (7-2, 5-0 MAC): Bulls quarterback Joe Licata isn't a big yardage guy, but has been one of the more consistent signal callers in the division. The sophomore completed 13-of-22 passes for 169 yards and a pair of touchdowns against Ohio, and has thrown for at least one score in each of his starts this season. Branden Oliver has been the offensive star of the team, rushing for 928 yards and nine touchdowns over his past five games.

ABOUT TOLEDO (6-3, 4-1 MAC): As good as senior quarterback Terrance Owens has been this year, he wasn't accumulating many yards - until last week, that is. Owens broke out for 375 yards on 18-of-24 passing while racking up three touchdowns for the second consecutive week. Running back David Fluellen (1,067 yards, 10 touchdowns) missed last week's game against Eastern Michigan with a leg injury and is questionable for this week's game.

TRENDS:

* Bulls are 5-0 ATS in their last five conference games.
* Rockets are 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight games following an ATS win.
* Under is 12-3 in Toledo's last 15 games.
* Buffalo is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF
Short Sheet

Week 12

Tuesday, November 12

Ohio at Bowling Green, 7:30 ET
Ohio: 0-6 ATS in road games after 2 consecutive game where they committed 1 or less turnovers
Bowling Green: 16-5 ATS after allowing 9 points or less last game

Buffalo at Toledo, 7:30 ET
Buffalo: 6-0 ATS after 1 or more consecutive straight up wins
Toledo: 15-5 ATS off a home blowout win by 28 points or more

[StarDust Bum]

MY TUESDAY NIGHT CFB GAME OF THE MONTH


Tuesday, November 12

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Ohio - 7:30 PM ET Bowling Green -9.5 500 POD # 2

Bowling Green - Over 51 500

Buffalo - 7:30 PM ET Buffalo +5.5 500 CFB GAME OF THE MONTH

Toledo - Under 55 500