The Bum's November's College Football POD's+Trends+Stats+News !

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Friday, November 8

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LOUISVILLE (7 - 1) at CONNECTICUT (0 - 7) - 11/8/2013, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CONNECTICUT is 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) in home games after playing a conference game since 1992.
CONNECTICUT is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) in home games in November games since 1992.
CONNECTICUT is 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) in home games off a loss against a conference rival since 1992.
CONNECTICUT is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) in home games in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
CONNECTICUT is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
CONNECTICUT is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CONNECTICUT is 1-1 against the spread versus LOUISVILLE over the last 3 seasons
CONNECTICUT is 1-1 straight up against LOUISVILLE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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AIR FORCE (2 - 7) at NEW MEXICO (2 - 6) - 11/8/2013, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
AIR FORCE is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
AIR FORCE is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW MEXICO is 1-1 against the spread versus AIR FORCE over the last 3 seasons
AIR FORCE is 2-0 straight up against NEW MEXICO over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Friday, November 8

8:30 PM
LOUISVILLE vs. CONNECTICUT
Louisville is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Louisville's last 5 games on the road
Connecticut is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Connecticut is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games at home

9:00 PM
AIR FORCE vs. NEW MEXICO
Air Force is 1-7 SU in its last 8 games
Air Force is 3-11 ATS in its last 14 games
New Mexico is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Air Force
New Mexico is 2-7 ATS in its last 9 games when playing Air Force

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Friday, November 8

Louisville at Connecticut, 8:30 ET
Louisville: 18-6 OVER in road games in November
Connecticut: 7-0 ATS off 2 consecutive road losses

Air Force at New Mexico, 9:00 ET
Air Force: 6-16 ATS in all games
New Mexico: 9-1 OVER in home games after allowing 450 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games

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FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 8

Game 115-116: Louisville at Connecticut (9:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Louisville 97.999; Connecticut 72.737
Dunkel Line: Louisville by 25; 46
Vegas Line: Louisville by 28; 49 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Connecticut (+28); Under

Game 117-118: Air Force at New Mexico (10:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Air Force 70.456; New Mexico 70.288
Dunkel Line: Even; 64
Vegas Line: New Mexico by 3; 59 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Air Force (+3); Over

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Friday's game

Underdogs are 6-2-1 vs spread in last nine Louisville-UConn games, as Cardinals split last four visits here, winning by 10-14 points. Huskies (+11) upset Louisville 23-20 LY, despite being outgained by 160 yards. Louisville is a bully team, winning last two road games by total of 64-10; their other road game was 27-13 (-14) win at rival Kentucky. 0-7 UConn is awful, giving up 103 points in last two games, but their three losses at home were only by 11-3-3 points, including 24-21 loss to Michigan. AAC home underdogs are 9-6 against the spread so far this season.

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NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 11

Friday's games
Underdogs are 6-2-1 vs spread in last nine Louisville-UConn games, as Cardinals split last four visits here, winning by 10-14 points. Huskies (+11) upset Louisville 23-20 LY, despite being outgained by 160 yards. Louisville is a bully team, winning last two road games by total of 64-10; their other road game was 27-13 (-14) win at rival Kentucky. 0-7 UConn is awful, giving up 103 points in last two games, but their three losses at home were only by 11-3-3 points, including 24-21 loss to Michigan. AAC home underdogs are 9-6 against the spread so far this season.

Air Force won five in row, eight of last nine games vs New Mexico, with four of last five wins by 13+ points. Falcons won three of last four trips here, where favorites are 4-2 vs spread in last six series games. Air Force is on short week after beating rival Army, its first I-A win of the season; Falcons are 0-3 on road, losing by 22-3-18 points. New Mexico allowed 39.3 ppg in its last three games, but they've also scored 31+ points in four of last five games. Lobos are 1-3 at home this year, 1-1 as a favorite at home, with only win over New Mexico State. Mountain West home favorites are 3-13 vs spread so far this season.

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NCAAF

Friday, November 8

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Louisville at UConn: What bettors need to know
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Louisville Cardinals at Connecticut Huskies (27.5, 49)

A three-overtime loss to Connecticut served as the push that Louisville needed to close out the 2012 season on a high note. One conference change and less than a year later, a similar result seems unlikely when the 16th-ranked Cardinals hit the road Friday to meet the winless Huskies. In their final Big East clash, Connecticut held Louisville scoreless through three quarters and intercepted Cardinals quarterback Teddy Bridgewater in the third overtime en route to a 23-20 victory.

The Huskies haven’t won since, but Louisville clinched a BCS berth the following week against Rutgers and defeated Florida in the Sugar Bowl – setting the stage for a strong start to their first season in the American Athletic Conference. While the Cardinals had a week off to savor their 34-3 trouncing of South Florida, Connecticut is looking for answers following a 62-17 loss to Central Florida on Oct. 26. The Huskies – off to their worst start since 1977 – have lost three of their last four games by at least 25 points.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN2.

LINE: UConn opened as a 27.5-point home dog. The total has held firm at 49.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in low-60s with wind blowing toward the SE endzone at 8 mph.

ABOUT LOUISVILLE (7-1, 3-1 American Athletic Conference): In his first start of the season, Dominique Brown set career highs in rushing yards (125), catches (six) and receiving yards (61). Bridgewater turned in another efficient performance versus South Florida, going 25-of-29 to increase his completion percentage to an FBS-high 73.7 percent. The Cardinals limited the Bulls to three points and 38 yards rushing – the fifth time they have held an opponent to seven points or fewer and less than 100 yards rushing in the same game.

ABOUT CONNECTICUT (0-7, 0-3): One of the few highlights from the Huskies’ loss to Central Florida was Casey Cochran’s 49-yard touchdown pass to Brian Lemelle – the first career scores for both freshmen. Tim Boyle, who replaced Chandler Whitmer as the starting quarterback three games ago, has yet to throw or run for a touchdown. Connecticut ranks second-to-last in the country in rushing yardage (537), as well as yards per carry (2.38) and has run for 91 yards or fewer in all but one game.

TRENDS:

* Huskies are 10-1-1 ATS in their last 12 games in November.
* Under is 6-2 in Cardinals last eight games overall.
* Over is 6-2 in Huskies last eight games overall.
* Cardinals are 18-6 ATS in their last 24 road games.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Louisville’s second-ranked scoring defense (10.6 points per game) also ranks second in the country against the run (80.5 yards) and third against the pass (164).

2. With a loss, Connecticut will match its worst start in school history.

3. The Cardinals’ offense has produced 67 more passing plays of 10 or more yards than the defense has surrendered (115-48).


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NCAAF

Friday, November 8

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Air Force at New Mexico: What bettors need to know
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Air Force Falcons at New Mexico Lobos (-3, 59.5)

Football fans hoping for an aerial assault may want to avoid Friday night's Mountain West tilt between the Air Force Falcons and the host New Mexico Lobos. The teams combine for just over 200 passing yards per game, which may help to explain why both schools are still looking for their first conference victory of the season. The Lobos boast one of the top rush attacks in the nation, but will meet their match against a Falcons team that also relies heavily on the ground game.

Air Force comes in on a high after piling up 343 rushing yards and six touchdowns en route to a 42-28 win over the Army Black Knights. Anthony LaCoste was the catalyst - scampering for a career-high 263 yards and three scores - as he leads a robust ground attack that features eight players with at least 100 rushing yards. New Mexico fell 35-30 to San Diego State last time out, despite racking up 253 rushing yards and three touchdowns.

TV: 9 p.m. ET, ESPNU
LINE: The Lobos are installed as three-point favorites, with the total set at 59.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-40s under clear skies.

ABOUT AIR FORCE (2-7, 0-5 Mountain West): Never has the Air Force football team been less appropriately named - the Falcons are 11th in the country at 279.2 rushing yards per game, and have 24 touchdowns on the ground compared to just four through the air. LaCoste's 73-yard scoring run early in the first quarter extended Air Force's streak of consecutive games with at least one rushing score to 56, the longest active run in the nation. The Falcons come into Saturday's contest 55-55 all-time in Mountain West play.

ABOUT NEW MEXICO (2-6, 0-4): The Lobos are led by the more appropriately named Kasey Carrier, who has rumbled for 930 rushing yards and nine TDs on the season. Carrier opened the season on fire - scoring five times in the first four games - but has cooled of late, limited to 141 yards in back-to-back losses to Utah State and San Diego State. Fortunately, New Mexico has an assortment of other ground weapons at its disposal - including quarterback Cole Gautsche (577 yards, six touchdowns) and Crusoe Gongbay (337 yards, three TDs).

TRENDS:

* Falcons are 8-23 ATS in their last 31 games on grass.
* Lobos are 2-5 ATS in their last seven home games.
* Over is 6-1 in New Mexico's last seven games.
* The road team is 4-0 ATS in the last four meetings.

[StarDust Bum]

Friday, November 8

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Louisville - 8:30 PM ET Louisville -27.5 500 POD # 3

Connecticut - Under 49 500 POD # 4

Air Force - 9:00 PM ET New Mexico -3 500 POD # 2

New Mexico - Over 61.5 500 POD # 1

[StarDust Bum]

Friday, November 8

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Louisville - 8:30 PM ET Louisville -27.5 500 POD # 3

Connecticut - Under 49 500 POD # 4

Air Force - 9:00 PM ET New Mexico -3 500 POD # 2

New Mexico - Over 61.5 500 POD # 1

[StarDust Bum]

Games to Watch - Week 11

November 6, 2013


BYU at Wisconsin
As of early Wednesday, most books had Wisconsin (6-2 straight up, 7-0-1 against the spread) favored by 7 ½ with a total of 55 ½. The Badgers are the nation’s lone team without a blemish on their spread record with the exception of a push in a 31-24 loss at Ohio State as seven-point underdogs. Gary Andersen’s team escaped Iowa City with a 28-9 win last weekend that was much closer than the final score indicated. UW, which covered the number as a nine-point road favorite, played excellent defense all day. The Badgers forced the Hawkeyes into three short field goals and hooked up the offense with great field position thanks to two second-half interceptions deep in Iowa territory. UW converted both turnovers into touchdowns with the second score getting it ahead of the number for the first time all day with 6:29 remaining. James White’s second rushing TD was the icing on the cake with 1:35 left. Senior LB Chris Borland, a two-time first-team All Big Ten selection, dressed at Iowa but missed another game with a hamstring issue. He is expected to play this week, but WR Jared Abbrederis is a question mark with a chest injury. Abbrederis has a team-high 46 catches for 782 yards and six touchdowns. BYU (6-2 SU, 5-3 ATS) owns an 11-6-1 spread record in 18 games as a road underdog during Bronco Mendenhall’s nine-year tenure. The Cougars have won five in a row, going 4-1 ATS. They have had two weeks to prep for this trip to Camp Randall after blasting Boise St. 37-20 two Fridays ago as seven-point home favorites. Sophomore QB Taysom Hill is on fire with an 11/4 touchdown-to-interception ratio in the last four games. He has rushed for a team-high 841 yards and eight TDs. Hill’s accuracy as a passer is steadily improving and he reminds you a little bit of Tim Tebow with his size and power running style. The ‘under’ is 5-3 overall for BYU, 2-1 in its road assignments. The ‘under’ is 5-3 overall for Wisconsin, 3-1 in its home games. If this game were a UFC fight, it would be a serious candidate for Fight of the Night honors. Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

Nebraska at Michigan
As of early Wednesday, most betting shops had Michigan (6-2 SU, 4-4 ATS) listed as a seven-point ‘chalk’ with a total of 57 ½. The Wolverines are coming off a 29-6 defeat at Michigan St. as four-point underdogs. They were limited to 168 yards of total offense by the nation’s No. 1 defense. The loss essentially eliminated Michigan from the Big Ten race. Devin Gardner is a dual-threat QB who has rushed for 474 yards and nine TDs, but he has struggled with consistency throwing the ball. Gardner has a 13/11 TD-INT ratio. During Brady Hoke’s three-year tenure, Michigan owns an 11-6 spread record as a home favorite, including a 4-1 ATS mark in such spots this year. Nebraska (6-2 SU, 4-4 ATS) kept alive its hopes for a return to the Big Ten Championship Game by beating Northwestern 27-24 last weekend on a Hail Mary pass on the game’s final play. However, the Cornhuskers failed to cover the spread as four-point home favorites. Senior QB Taylor Martinez, a first-team All Big Ten selection in 2012, has only played once since a Week 3 home loss to UCLA. In 3 ½ games, Martinez had a 10/2 TD-INT ratio but he’s ‘out’ again this week with a hip pointer. On Bo Pelini’s watch in six seasons, Nebraska is 2-4 ATS as a road underdog. The ‘under’ has cashed at a 3-1 clip in Nebraska’s last four games. Meanwhile, Michigan has seen the ‘over’ go 5-3 overall, 4-1 in its home games. ABC will have the telecast at 3:30 p.m. Eastern.

Mississippi State at Texas A&M
As of early Wednesday, most books had Texas A&M (7-2 SU, 5-4 ATS) favored by 19 with a total of 66. If Johnny Manziel decides to turn pro, a likely scenario for sure, this will be the final game of his legendary career at Kyle Field. Manziel threw four TD passes and ran for two more scores in last week’s 57-7 win over UTEP as a 47.5-point home ‘chalk.’ For the season, Johnny Football has a 26/8 TD-INT ratio and eight rushed scores. His favorite target Mike Evans is second in the country in receiving yards with 1,147 on 52 receptions. The Aggies’ defense is the reason they aren’t in the SEC hunt. This unit gives up 29.8 points per game. Mississippi St. (4-4 SU, 3-5 ATS) fell to 1-3 in conference play by dropping a 34-16 decision at South Carolina as a 13-point underdog. QB Dak Prescott ran for a pair of TDs but was intercepted three times by the Gamecocks. Prescott returned home earlier this week to be with his family after his mother lost her battle with colon cancer. It is unknown whether or not Prescott will make the trip to College Station. Tyler Russell will most likely get the starting nod. The Bulldogs are 4-10 ATS as road underdogs during Dan Mullen’s five-year tenure. The ‘over’ is 7-2 overall for the Aggies, 5-2 in their home games. The ‘under’ is 5-3 overall for MSU, 3-0 in its road contests. Kickoff is slated for 3:30 p.m. Eastern on CBS.

Houston at Central Florida
As of early Wednesday, most spots had Central Florida (6-1 SU, 6-1 ATS) installed as a 10 ½-point favorite with a total of 64. The Golden Knights suffered their lone loss of the year at home vs. South Carolina by a 28-25 count, but they quality wins at Penn St. and at Louisville on their resume. UCF is led by junior QB Blake Bortles, who has thrown for 1,870 yards. Bortles has a 15/4 TD-INT ratio and two rushing scores. RB Storm Johnson averages 5.2 yards per carry and has nine rushing TDs. Houston (7-1 SU, 7-1 ATS) saw its nine-game ATS winning streak dating back to last season snapped in last Thursday’s 35-23 win over South Florida as a 19-point home favorite. True freshman QB John O’Korn has been the catalyst for Houston this season, posting a 22/4 TD-INT ratio. RB Ryan Jackson The Cougars are 3-1 ATS as road underdogs since Tony Levine took over for Kevin Sumlin. The ‘under’ is 4-3 overall for UCF, 2-1 in its home games. The ‘over’ has hit in three straight games for Houston to improve to 5-3 overall. ESPN2 will have the telecast at 7:00 p.m. Eastern.

UCLA at Arizona
As of early Wednesday, most spots had UCLA (6-2 SU, 5-3 ATS) favored by one with a total of 56. Arizona had won five straight over UCLA both SU and ATS until getting hammered 66-10 last season as a 3 ½-point road underdog. Jim Mora Jr.’s team dropped back-to-back games at Stanford (24-10) and at Oregon (42-14) before beating Colorado 45-23 last Saturday. But the Bruins, who were 30-point home favorites, failed to cover the number for the third straight game. UCLA’s recent ATS woes can, in part, be attributed to three injuries to starting offensive lineman. Two of those players are out indefinitely while the Bruins hope to get Simon Goines (knee, ‘questionable’) back this weekend. QB Brett Hundley has a 16/8 TD-INT ratio and six rushing scores. Hundley was without his leading rusher Jordon James for a three-game stretch due to a sprained ankle. James returned last week but was ineffective with only eight rushing yards on six totes. Arizona (6-2 SU, 4-4 ATS) won its first three games before losing at Washington and at USC. Since then, Rich Rodriguez’s squad has won three in a row, going 2-1 ATS. They struggled to sneak past California by a 33-28 count as 14-point road favorites last week. UA is led by QB B.J. Denker and RB Ka’Deem Carey. Denker has a 9/3 TD-INT ratio and 11 rushing TDs in R-Rod’s spread offense. Carey has rushed for 1,076 yards and 10 TDs. The ‘under’ is 5-3 overall for both schools. ESPN will have television coverage at 10:00 p.m. Eastern.

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Friday, Nov. 8

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

LOUISVILLE at UCONN...Revenge for 'Ville after 23-20 loss LY. Cards only 2-2 vs. line last four in revenge. 'Ville only 1-3 vs. line last four in 2013, however. Huskies 1-6 vs. line TY, though they are 5-2 as home dog since 2011 (1-1 TY). Louisville, based on UConn woes.

AIR FORCE at NEW MEXICO...Falcs 3-6 vs. line TY, 6-16 since 2012. Road team has covered last four in series. Lobos 1-3 vs. line at home TY and 0-1 as chalk. Slight to AFA, based on series road trends.



Saturday, Nov. 9

Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

IOWA at PURDUE...Purdue 2-6 vs. line TY for Hazell, 5-13 last 18 on board since early 2012. Boilermakers also 1-5 last 6 as home dog. Ferentz 3-0 vs. line on road this season. Iowa, based on team trends.

WESTERN KENTUCKY at ARMY...Petrino no covers last 3 TY and 2-5 last 7. But Toppers are 5-1 last six as visiting chalk and beat Army-like Navy earlier this season. Ellerson 6-3 last nine as home dog. WKU, based on team trends.

SMU at CINCINNATI...Tuberville 3-1 vs. line at home TY, and Bearcats 11-6 as Nippert chalk since 2011. SMU only 2-5 vs. line TY, but June Jones 7-5 last 12 as dog. Cincy, based on team trends.

NC STATE at DUKE...Blue Devils have covered last 3 in 2013, now 6-2 vs. line TY. NCS 3-10 vs. line as visitor since late 2010. Duke, based on recent trends.

TULSA at EAST CAROLINA...Tulsa only 1-7 vs. spread this season. ECU has won and covered last three meetings, though haven't played since 2010. Pirates 8-5 vs. line last 13 at Greenville. ECU, based on recent trends.

ILLINOIS at INDIANA...Beckman 1-6 as visiting dog since taking over Illini in 2012. Hoosiers 2-1 as home chalk TY. Indiana, based on Illini negatives.

TCU at IOWA STATE...Frogs no covers last 4, now 2-7 vs. line TY, 6-16-1 last 23 on board, 11-24-1 last 35 since late 2010. Also 3-11 vs. line in Big 12 since joining LY. But ISU no covers last 3 TY. Slight to ISU, based on recent TCU woes.

FLORIDA STATE at WAKE FOREST...Noles 6-2 vs. line TY, but still just 2-6 as visiting chalk since LY. Home team has won and covered last three in series. Wake 18-9 as home dog since 2003. Slight to Wake, based on extended trends.

UAB at MARSHALL...Marshall had won and covered 3 straight in series prior to last season. UAB 1-4 vs. line last 5 away, 3-7 last 10 on board since late 2012. Herd 4-0 as DD chalk in 2013. Marshall, based on team trends.

VIRGINIA TECH at MIAMI-FLORIDA...Beamer extended spread mark is 11-25-1 last 36 on board. Beamer just 2-5 as dog since 2010. Canes no covers last 3 TY but 18-9-1 last 28 on board since early 2011. Miami, based on team trends.

PENN STATE at MINNESOTA...Nittany Lions no covers first three away from Happy Valley TY, 0-4 since late 2012. Gophers 6-3 vs. line in 2013, 3-2 at home. Minnesota, based on recent trends.

SYRACUSE at MARYLAND...Terps 1-3 vs. line last four TY as injuries have mounted. If getting points, note Cuse 3-8 as visiting dog since 2011. Maryland, based on extended team trends.

MISSOURI at KENTUCKY...Mizzou 3-0 vs. line away TY, 6-1 last 7 since early 2012. Cats no covers last 4 as home dog since late 2012 (0-3 for Stoops TY). Mizzou, based on team trends.

VIRGINIA at NORTH CAROLINA...UNC has won and covered last three years vs. UVa. Fedora 8-3 vs. line at Chapel Hill since 2012. Cavs 5-15-3 last 23 on board since late 2011. UNC, based on team and series trends.

VANDERBILT at FLORIDA...Muschamp 2-5-1 vs. line TY, 3-10-1 last 14 since mid 2012, 9-22-1 last 32 since early 2011. Gators also 3-6 last 9 as Swamp chalk. Dores 6-2 last nine away from Dudley Field, 9-7 as dog for James Franklin. Vandy, based on team trends.

WESTERN MICHIGAN at EASTERN MICHIGAN...EMU has won and covered last two seasons, but Eagles only 1-8 vs. line in 2013, 5-16 since 2012. Also 8-18 as Ypsilanti dog since 2006. WMU not much better, 3-6 vs. line TY, 7-15 last 22 on board. WMU, based on EMU woes.

TULANE at UTSA...UTSA 12-7 vs. line since LY, and has won and covered last 2 TY. Wave 6-3 vs. line in . Slight to UTSA, based on team trends.

FRESNO STATE at WYOMING...Wyo 2-0 as dog TY, 23-12-1 in role since Christensen arrived in 2009. Fresno only one cover last nine (1-7-1) since late 2012. Wyoming, based on team trends.

KANSAS STATE at TEXAS TECH...Bill Snyder has covered last 4 TY and is 19-9 as an underdog since returning to KSU in 2009. Cats have also won and covered last two vs. TT. Kansas State, based on Bill Snyder underdog trends.

BYU at WISCONSIN...Bronco Mendenhall vs. Gary Andersen again, brutal defensive war LY when Andersen at USU and BYU wins 6-3, but a Utag cover. Wiscy 7-1 vs. line TY and Andersen now 18-3 vs. line since 2012 with USU and Badgers. Mendenhall's Cougs, however, have now covered 11 straight as a dog since mid 2010 (2-0 TY). Slight to BYU, based on Mendenhall dog numbers.

ARKANSAS at OLE MISS...It's gone pear-shaped for Hogs, no covers last 4 or 7 of last 8 for Bielema TY. Hugh Freeze covering numbers again, three straight and now 5-3 vs. line TY, 25-8 since 2011 at Ark State & Ole Miss. Rebs have covered last 2 and 3 of last 4 meetings. Ole Miss, based on team trends.

NEVADA at COLORADO STATE...CSU 9-3 last 12 on board since late LY. Rams also 5-2 as chalk for McElwain since LY. Pack 2-7 vs. spread last 8 as visitor. Pack also just 6-12 vs. line last 18 since early 2012. CSU, based on team trends.

COLORADO at WASHINGTON...Buffs 6-17 vs. line in Pac-12 since joining in 2011. UW no covers last 3 TY. Slight to UW, based on recent CU woes.

TEXAS at WEST VIRGINIA...Holgorsen 3-6 vs. line TY, 3-4 as dog after 5-2 dog mark past two years. WVU 5-12 last 17 vs. line since mid 2012. Mack has won last 5 SU and 3-2 vs. line last 5 in 2013. Slight to Texas, based on recent trends.

ARIZONA STATE at UTAH...ASU has won and covered big the last two years vs. Utes. Whittingham only 2-3 as dog TY, so-so 9-8 in role since 2011. Sun Devils have now won and covered last 3 TY after WSU blowout. Graham 4-0 visiting chalk since arriving at ASU LY. ASU, based on team and series trends.

NEBRASKA at MICHIGAN...Note home team has won and covered in series past two seasons. Bo Pelini 1-8 vs. line last nine away from Lincoln, Brady Hoke 4-1 vs. line at Ann Arbor TY. Michigan, based on team and series trends.

HAWAII at NAVY...Norm Chow 7-4 vs. line since late LY (4-4 in 2013). UH is 4-1 its last 5 as DD dog. Mids 6-2 vs. line TY, 3-0 vs. line at Annapolis, where Mids had been just 5-10 vs. line previous three seasons. Navy also 2-1 as chalk TY after 10-20-1 mark 2009-12. Slight to Hawaii, based on team trends.

UTEP at NORTH TEXAS...UNT surging with covers in last four after Rice win. Mean Green 8-2 vs. line since late 2012. UTEP no covers last 6 and 1-7 vs. line TY, 5-19-1 last 24 on board. UNT, based on team trends.

KANSAS at OKLAHOMA STATE...OSU 9-1 last 10 as Stillwater chalk, 15-9 laying DD since 2008. Weis 3-5 vs. line TY, 8-12 since arriving at KU. OSU, based on team trends.

SOUTHERN CAL at CAL...Trojans now 1-10 vs. line last 11 away from Coliseum after win at OSU, but have won last 9 SU vs. Cal. SC has also covered last 4 and 7 of last 8 vs. Bears. Cal 2-7 vs. line TY, 2-12 last 14 on board, same as HC Sonny Dykes' mark since mid 2012 at LT & Cal, but Berkeley has covered last 2 TY. Bears also 1-8 SU vs. line last 9 as host. SC, based on series trends.

NOTRE DAME at PITT...Panthers have covered last 3 years in series although they haven't beaten Irish SU since 2009. Pitt no covers last 4 or 5 of last 6 TY. Irish 3-5 as visiting chalk for Brian Kelly since 2010. Slight to Pitt, based on series trends.

MISSISSIPPI STATE at TEXAS A&M...Dan Mullen 1-6 as visiting dog since 2011. A&M 8-4 as College Station chalk since LY. A&M, based on team trends.

BOSTON COLLEGE at NEW MEXICO STATE...Ags 2-6 vs. line TY, 2-11 last 13 on board, and 5-14-1 since 2012. Also 2-9 vs. line last 11 at Las Cruces. Eagles only 1-8 vs. line last nine away, however. BC, based on NMSU negatives.

UTAH STATE at UNLV...Bobby Hauck 14-8-1 vs. line at Sam Boyd since 2010, and Rebs 22-11-1 as home dog since 2005. Utags, however, 9-2 vs. line last 11 away, and 16-5 overall vs. spread since 2012. Utah State, based on team trends.

FIU at MTSU...FIU 3-5 vs. line TY, 8-13 last 21 and 11-30 last 29 vs. line dating to parts of 2011. MTSU has won and covered 3 of last 4 meetings. Slight to MTSU, based on FIU negatives.

ARKANSAS STATE at ULM...Warhawks have won and covered last three in 2013 Ark State has won and covered last three in series, but Red Wolves just 2-6 vs. line TY for new HC Harsin. ULM, based on recent trends.

SOUTHERN MISS at LA TECH...USM 0-20 SU and 4-16 vs. line in those games since start of 2012! La Tech not too much better, 3-5 vs. line TY and 3-10 last 13 on board since mid 2012. Though Bulldogs have covered 3 of last 5 TY. La Tech, based on USM negatives.

AUBURN at TENNESSEE...Malzahn 6-0 SU and vs. line last six in 2013, now 15-6 vs. spread at Ark St & Auburn since LY. Butch Jones 2-0 as home dog TY and his Cincy & UT teams are 6-2 as dog since LY (3-2 TY). Auburn, based on recent trends.

HOUSTON at UCF...Cougs' spread loss to USF drops them to "only" 9-1 last 10 on board since late LY. UH 2-0 as dog TY. But O'Leary 6-1 vs. line TY and 17-8 last 25 as home chalk. Slight to UCF, based on extended trends.

UCLA at ARIZONA...Home team has covered last four in series. UCLA had lost five in a row SU vs. Cats prior to 66-10 rout LY, so this is major revenge for Rich-Rod. Mora 4-1 as chalk TY, 2-2 vs. line away. Cats 2-0 as home dog for Rodriguez. Slight to UA, based on extended series trends.

LSU at ALABAMA...LSU has covered last three reg.-season meetings, though Bama won and covered handily in 2011 BCS title game. Nick 4-1 vs. line last 5 in 2013, and 5 of last 6 as SEC host. Les Miles 4-1 as dog since 2011, Tigers 5-1-2 vs. spread last 8 at Tuscaloosa. LSU, based on team and extended series trends.

SAN DIEGO STATE at SAN JOSE STATE...Rocky Long 6-5-1 as dog with Aztecs since 2011 (3-2 as visiting dog). SJSU 5-3 vs. line for Caragher TY and 19-5 last 24 on board dating to mid 201

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Pac-12 Report - Week 11

November 8, 2013


We're back after a one-week hiatus, as the Pac-12 schedule was rather light last week. Hopefully you enjoyed the action in Week 10, and liked what you saw last night from two Pac-12 heavyweights.

The conference, and the college football world, are still abuzz about Stanford's impressive win against Oregon Thursday night, as one of the major dominoes in the national championship picture fell. Stanford pushed their way back into the conversation, but that loss at Utah is likely to realistically keep them from getting back into the picture.

USC is also getting back into the picture as far as a possible major bowl game, and they head to the Bay Area looking to keep things going. And another interesting game will be AZ State heading to Rice-Eccles in Salt Lake City to face Utah. Ask the Cardinal how tough the Utes can be at home, dashing dreams in the course of three and a half hours.


2013 PAC-12 STANDINGS

Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under

Arizona 6-2 3-2 4-4 3-5

Arizona State 6-2 4-1 5-3 7-1

California 1-8 0-6 2-7 3-5-1

Colorado 3-5 0-5 4-4 6-2

Oregon 8-1 5-1 7-2 5-4

Oregon State 6-3 4-2 4-5 5-4

Southern California 6-3 3-2 4-5 2-7

Stanford 8-1 6-1 5-4 4-5

UCLA 6-2 3-2 5-3 3-5

Utah 4-4 1-4 4-4 3-5

Washington 5-3 2-3 4-4 3-5

Washington State 4-5 2-4 6-3 5-3-1


Southern California at California (FOX, 3:00 p.m. ET)
Since Southern California dismissed head coach Lane Kiffin, the Trojans are suddenly a tough out again. Interim head coach Ed Orgeron has USC headed back in the right direction again, and the upward ascent looks to continue in the Bay Area against the lowly Bears. Cal has played a little better lately, though. While the wins haven't been there, bettors will take note that they have covered two straight games after going 0-7 ATS to start the season. Cal hasn't won against USC since the 2003 season, and that doesn't figure to change this time around. To make matters worse, the top defensive player for the Bears, LB Khairi Fortt (biceps), might not play due to injury. USC enters as more than a two-touchdown road favorite, but they are just 1-10 ATS in their past 11 road games. That cover came in their last road outing in Corvallis against Oregon State, however. Cal is an abysmal 1-8 ATS in their past nine at home, and just 5-17 ATS in their past 22 games overall. The Trojans are 4-0 ATS in the past four meetings, and 4-0 ATS in their past four trips to Berkeley, while the road team is 12-5 ATS in the past 17. This one could get out of hand if WR Marqise Lee and the Trojans offense get loose, and with Fortt likely out, RB Silas Redd should see plenty of running room, too.

Arizona State at Utah (Pac-12 Network, 4:00 p.m. ET)
Not that AZ State has to prove themselves anymore, but we'll get an even better idea about this team in a tough road test in Salt Lake City. This team is battle tested this season already, with wins against USC, Washington and Washington, and near-misses against Notre Dame and Stanford. If there has been a chink in the armor for the Sun Devils, it's that they are 4-1 ATS at home, and 1-2 ATS in road or neutral-site games. They're also 1-5-1 ATS in their past seven on fieldturf. While the Utes are 2-6 ATS in their past eight against a team with a winning record, they are 7-3 ATS in their past 10 home games, and 7-3 ATS in their past 10 home games against a team with a winning road record. If you plan on playing the total, there is a rather stark contrast between the two in terms of trends. The over is 4-0 in AZ State's past four road games, and 26-9 in their past 35 games overall. For Utah, the under is 5-0 in their past five, 4-0 in their past four against teams with a winning record, and 4-0 in their past four Pac-12 games. However, AZ State over bettors can take solace in the fact the over is 7-3 in Utah's past 10 home games overall.

Colorado at Washington (Pac-12 Network, 8:00 p.m. ET)
The Buffaloes head to Seattle, and it could get really ugly in a hurry. Colorado ranks 97th in the country in rushing defense, allowing 198.9 yards per game on the ground. That's not good news facing Washington RB Bishop Sankey, who is third in the nation with 145.3 rushing yards per game. The Buffs have dropped 13 straight Pac-12 games. They have also been piledriven by the Huskies in two meetings since joining the Pac-12, losing by a combined 90-27 score. This game might feature a similar 45-13 kind of score. The Buffs are 7-20 ATS in their past 27 conference tilts, and 6-17 ATS in their past 23 games against a team with a winning record. The Huskies are 8-2 ATS in their past 10 home games, and 6-1 ATS in their past seven home outings against a team with a losing road record. Lastly, CU is 0-4 ATS in their past four meetings against UW.

UCLA at Arizona (ESPN, 10:00 p.m. ET)
In perhaps the most interesting game of the weekend, we get an elimination game of sorts. A loss in this game surely knocks out the loser from winning the Pac-12 South Division, and a shot at a conference championship. If UCLA is to be successful, they'll need to rein in Arizona RB Ka'Deem Carey, who they completely shut down last season. UCLA has won seven in a row against south division opponents, so one has to give them to edge until someone knocks them off down south. The Wildcats are still smarting from a 66-10 beatdown from the Bruins Nov. 3, 2012, so look for revenge to be big on their minds. However, while the Wildcats have enjoyed a resurgence of sorts this season, they are 1-5 ATS in their past six against teams with a winning record, and must prove they can beat contenders before they are taken seriously again. The trends are all over the map, if you tend to bet that way, as the favorite is a perfect 6-0 ATS in the past six meetings. However, the home team is 8-2 ATS in the past 10, and UCLA is 1-5 ATS in the past six, and 0-5 ATS in the past five journeys to Tucson.

Byes
Oregon State, Washington State

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Big Ten Report - Week 11

November 7, 2013


Week 10 in the Big Ten watched the favorites go 5-1 straight up and 3-3 against the spread, three of those margins decided by double digits. The lone underdog to win outright was Minnesota (+7 ½), who knocked off Indiana, 42-39 on the road. Both Ohio State and Wisconsin won in dominating fashion as road favorites. Total bettors watched the 'under' go 5-1 last weekend.

2013 BIG TEN STANDINGS

Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under

Illinois 3-5 0-4 4-4 4-4

Indiana 3-5 1-3 3-5 7-1

Iowa 5-4 2-3 5-4 5-4

Michigan 6-2 2-2 4-4 5-3

Michigan State 8-1 4-0 5-3-1 3-6

Minnesota 7-2 3-2 6-3 6-3

Nebraska 6-2 3-1 4-4 4-4

Northwestern 4-5 0-5 3-6 3-6

Ohio State 9-0 5-0 6-2-1 6-3

Penn State 5-3 2-2 3-5 5-3

Purdue 1-7 0-4 2-6 3-5

Wisconsin 6-2 4-1 7-0-1 3-5


Michigan (-7, 58) vs. Nebraska (ABC, 3:30 p.m. ET)
How will Nebraska respond on the road after its final play hail mary win over Northwestern last week? The Huskers fell behind 21-7 early in the game and backup QB's Armstrong and Kellogg struggled with accuracy (23-of-42 passing with 4 INT). The defense delivered by allowing just three points the final 40 minutes and also returning and INT for a TD. The Huskers also received another strong performance by RB Abdullah (127 rush yards). It was a huge win for Nebraska after its surprising defeat at Minnesota in its prior week and it keeps the Huskers in the Legends Division hunt with key games against Michigan and Michigan State on deck. Michigan is off of its second loss in three games, this one to in-state rival Michigan State - and it was an ugly one. The Wolves were held to just 168 yards, 12 first downs, and 6 total points against the nation's top defense. They tallied -48 rush yards for the game (including sack yards lost) and were just 2-of-14 on 3rd down. Michigan's defensive issues have become a big concern after allowing 394 yards and 29 points to a previously-mediocre MSU offense. The Wolves have now allowed 39.6 PPG over their previous three games. Michigan's hopes of a Big Ten title have taken a serious hit as it will now need some major help to represent the Legends Division in the Big Ten title game. Michigan returns home, where it has never lost under Hoke, to face Nebraska this weekend. These two have split the only two meetings since Nebraska became a member of the Big Ten. Michigan won at home in 2011, 43-17. Nebraska won at home in 2012, 23-9. Nebraska is just 7-13 ATS in its last 20 games as a road underdog. The Wolves are 12-6 ATS in their last 18 games as a home favorite of seven points or more.

Wisconsin (-7 ½, 55) vs. BYU (ESPN, 3:30 p.m. ET)
Wisconsin gets a rare midseason non-conference game at home against BYU this weekend. The Badgers are off of a win against Iowa that was closer than the 28-9 final score indicates. Wisconsin struggled on offense for the better part of three quarters before two late touchdowns put the game away. Star RB Gordon had his worst game of the season with just 62 rush yards. QB Stave (2 TD passes) and RB White (132 rush yards & 2 TD) picked up the slack. Defensively this was one of the best performances of recent memory for Wisconsin. Despite playing without its top defender, LB Borland, the Badgers held Iowa to 289 yards and 9 points. The Hawks managed just 110 rush yards on 3.5 YPC and QB's Rudock & Beathard completed just 16-of-40 passes for 179 yards with 0 TD and 2 INT. BYU is not a familiar opponent, but new head coach Gary Anderson, previously the HC at Utah State, faced BYU each of the past four seasons. The Cougars have won five straight games (4-1 ATS) after starting the season 1-2. They've had a couple weeks off after their previous game and will be well rested for this trip to Madison. Led by do-everything QB Taysom Hill (2,019 pass yards, 841 rush yards, 20 total TD), this offense ranks 12th in yards per game and has scored 31+ points in five straight games. BYU operates at break-neck speed on offense, leading the nation with 92.8 plays per game. Defensively the Cougars have allowed over 200 rush yards in two of the last three weeks and that has to be a concern traveling to Wisconsin to face the nation's 10th ranked rush offense. Wisconsin is 27-0 SU in its last 27 home games against non-conference opponents. BYU is 4-0 ATS in its last four as a road underdog of 7+ points.

Minnesota (-2 ½, 48) vs. Penn State (ESPN2, 12:00 p.m. ET)
The Minnesota magic continues, thanks in large part to an inexcusable crunch-time blunder by Indiana last week. Minnesota blew a 22-point 2nd half lead but was able to rally behind strong play from QB Nelson, who established himself as the unquestioned QB leader with 298 pass yards and four touchdowns - including the game-winning 50-yard TD pass with 3:06 remaining. It was a rough second half for the defense, but it came up with a stop when needed and overall it performed well against an Indiana offense that averages 42 points per game. Minnesota has now won three consecutive B1G games and appears to be a major player in the Legends Division. Penn State bounced back after its 49 point loss to Ohio State with an overtime win over Illinois at home last week. It wasn't pretty, but PSU got a strong passing day from freshman QB Hackenberg (240 yards, 1 TD, 0 INT) and RB Belton (201 rush yards, 1 TD). Defensively they allowed too many passing yards yet again (321 pass yards) despite playing against a quarterback that had averaged 162 pass yards over his past three games. The Nittany Lions will need to clean up the defense before they travel to Minnesota to play the Gophers who are riding a ton of momentum. Penn State is 4-1 SU & 4-0-1 ATS in the last five meetings with Minnesota. These two haven't met since 2010, a 12-point Penn State win in Minneapolis.

Iowa (-14 ½, 45 ½) @ Purdue (Big Ten, 12:00 p.m. ET)
The Hawkeyes battled tough with Wisconsin for three quarters, but there were again too many deficiencies on offense for the team to overcome. Drives repeatedly stalled as QB's Rudock & Beathard couldn't convert on 3rd downs. Those two combined to complete just 16-of-40 passes for 179 yards with 2 INT. The team was 4-of-18 on 3rd downs and failed to find the endzone. The defense played well against one of the top offenses in the Big Ten. Wisconsin added a couple of rushing touchdowns late in the game, but Iowa held its own for the most part. The defense is good enough to get Iowa a few more wins, but unless the offense to start scoring, it's going to be another average finish for the Hawkeyes. QB Rudock is back at practice and will play this week at Purdue. Purdue headed into its bye week on a somewhat high-note after a solid defensive performance against Michigan State. It didn't translate over as the Boilers were shutout at home against Ohio State last week, 0-56. Purdue managed just 116 total yards and 10 first downs. Not many teams can slow down Ohio State's offense, but Purdue looked downright helpless. OSU QB's completed 28-of-36 passes for 5 TD and the Bucks also rushed for 345 yards on 8.4 YPC. Purdue has been shut out in consecutive games and has scored just 17 points in four Big Ten contests. Purdue has covered three of the last four over Iowa. Iowa is just 1-10 ATS in its last 11 games as a road favorite of 14 points or more.

Indiana (-10, 76) vs. Illinois (Big Ten, 3:30 p.m. ET)
Indiana's bowl hopes took a serious hit with its home loss to Minnesota last week. The Hoosiers had the ball inside the 10 yard line down by three points. A touchdown would have given them a likely win and at the very least, Indiana would be able to send the game into overtime with a field goal. Instead, the Hoosiers turned the ball over and lost a "must-win" game. The Hoosiers now sit at 3-5, three wins away from bowl eligibility with four to play. Two of those games are at Wisconsin and at Ohio State. It's difficult to envision Indiana winning one of those games, as well as two others, to become bowl eligible. Indiana's offense again was strong, despite only controlling the ball for 22 minutes of game time. The Hoosiers tallied 496 total yards, including 227 on the ground. QB Sudfeld outplayed QB Roberson and that further complicates the decision making of the offense after Roberson clearly looked like the better talent the previous weeks. IU's defense allowed four touchdown passes to Minnesota's QB Nelson and also surrendered 248 rush yards to the Gophers. After Illinois' overtime loss to Penn State last week, the Illini's Big Ten losing streak has now reached 18 games - and it's hard to find another loss that stung as bad as Saturday's loss. Illinois had numerous early opportunities to put points on the board, took a late lead in the game, and couldn't hold on to it as PSU tied the game with 41 seconds left and won the game in overtime. QB Scheelhaase threw his first touchdown pass since September 28th and the offense moved the ball fluidly through the air. The rushing attack mustered just 90 yards on 24 carries (3.8 YPC) and the defense had one of its poorer showings. PSU freshman QB Hackenberg tossed for 240 yards and the Nittany Lions gained 250 rush yards. The Illini can take some positives away from a near victory in Happy Valley, but now the Illini have to win three of their final four to become bowl eligible. Illinois is 4-2 SU & ATS in its last six meetings with Indiana. Indiana is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 games as a favorite of 10 points or more. Illinois is 14-7 ATS in its last 21 as an underdog of 10 points or more.

Ohio State - BYE
Ohio State won its 21st consecutive game under coach Urban Meyer with a 56-0 thrashing of Purdue in Ross-Ade Stadium. Ohio State scored 28 first-quarter points and 42 in the first half. QB's Miller, Guiton, and Jones combined to complete 28-of-36 passes for 295 yards and 5 TD and the Bucks tallied 345 rush yards on 8.4 YPC. Ohio State needs to keep winning with "style" as they currently sit at 4th in the BCS standings with little chance of surpassing any of the top three teams. The Buckeyes are off this week before visiting Illinois on Nov. 16.

Michigan State - BYE
The Spartans reclaimed their superiority against in-state rival Michigan in style last week and now look like the front-runner to represent the Legends Division in the Big Ten Title game. Michigan State held the Wolverines to just 168 yards, 12 first downs, and two field goals. Michigan was just 2-for-14 on 3rd down and tallied -48 rushing yards! They sacked Michigan seven times and absolutely suffocated the Michigan offense. Offensively QB Cook continued to impress with 252 pass yards while RB Langford rushed for over 100 yards for the fourth straight game. They have an open week before a key road trip to Nebraska on Nov. 16.

Northwestern - BYE
Nothing is going right for Northwestern during its five game losing streak. This time it was a Hail Mary at the buzzer that sent the Wildcats home with a loss. It was their third consecutive loss by seven points or fewer and now Northwestern is in serious danger of missing out on bowl eligibility altogether. Northwestern was outgained by 146 yards and had 12 fewer first downs against Nebraska. QB's Colter and Siemian continue to struggle through the air, combining to complete just 8-of-21 passes for 81 yards with 0 TD and 1 INT. Northwestern has an off week to regroup before hosting Michigan on Nov. 16.

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ACC Report - Week 11

November 8, 2013

We're back to the grind in the Atlantic Coast Conference after another marquee matchup failed to live up to its pre-hype billing. Miami hung with Florida State for about two and a half quarters before the Seminoles absolutely murdered the Hurricanes in the second half, covering the 22-point number to improve to 6-2 ATS this season. Now, Florida State tries to keep it together at Wake Forest, a team they have struggled against over the years.

Other than that game, there aren't a lot of interesting matchups for the general football fan, but for bettors, every game has its interesting points. One game, the Virginia-North Carolina game, will have the bettor's eyeballs focused on the total. The over has been the play for the Wahoos, while the under has cashed frequently for the Heels. The same holds true in that FSU-Wake game. The over is 7-1 for the 'Noles, but the under is 8-1 for the Deacs. Interesting angles to keep an eye on in Week 11.

2013 ACC STANDINGS

Team SU Conference ATS Over/Under

Boston College 4-4 2-3 5-3 3-5

Clemson 8-1 6-1 4-5 6-3

Duke 6-2 2-2 6-2 3-5

Florida State 8-0 6-0 6-2 7-1

Georgia Tech 6-3 5-2 4-4-1 5-4

Maryland 5-3 1-3 5-3 5-3

Miami (Fla.) 7-1 3-1 4-4 3-5

North Carolina 3-5 2-3 4-4 1-7

North Carolina State 3-5 0-5 4-4 2-6

Pittsburgh 4-4 2-3 3-5 3-5

Syracuse 4-4 2-2 5-3 4-4

Virginia 2-7 0-5 3-5-1 7-2

Virginia Tech 6-3 3-2 3-5-1 2-6-1

Wake Forest 4-5 2-4 4-5 1-8


Florida State at Wake Forest (ABC - 12:00 p.m. ET)
The Seminoles of Florida State steamrolled another ACC and national championship contender last weekend against Miami, cementing their spot in the Top 2 of the BCS standings. It also helps tremendously that Oregon stumbled at Stanford Thursday night, strengthening Florida State's chances at a spot in the title game. First things first, though. FSU cannot afford to think big picture, and still need to take things one game at a time and avoid stumbling themselves. So far, that hasn't been a problem. After they trampled Clemson in Death Valley, they came home and annihilated North Carolina State leading up to their big game against Miami. So far, FSU has resembled a machine, and a well-oiled, focused machine, at that. They can clinch a second straight Atlantic Coast Conference Atlantic Division title with a win. They've won 12 in a row against ACC foes, and Wake Forest is 1-53 against Top 10 teams all-time, with their only success coming in a game back in 1946. That doesn't bode well for the Demon Deacons. While the Deacs are 6-2 ATS in their past eight against FSU, and the dog is 7-2 ATS in their past nine, it's awfully hard to take Wake and the points against this FSU team.

Virginia at North Carolina (12:30 p.m. ET)
The Cavaliers have been horrible this season, winless in conference in five tries, and five games below .500 overall. But bettors shouldn't ignore UVA completely. While their ATS record is rather middlin, you'll notice above that the over has cashed in seven of their nine games. Of course, they face a Tar Heels team which has had the under cash in seven of their eight games. UVA has actually rebounded nicely after getting curb-stomped at home, going 3-0-1 ATS i ntheir past four games following a double-digit home loss. They are also 4-1 ATS in their past five against a team with a losing record, which UNC still possesses. However, UNC is 10-3 ATS in their past 13 at home. The Cavaliers have kept it close over the years against their rivals from the south, going 11-4 ATS in the past 15 meetings, and 5-2 ATS in their past seven trips to Chapel Hill.

North Carolina State at Duke (ESPNU, 4:00 p.m. ET)
The tables have turned in the Triangle. But North Carolina and North Carolina State have very slim chances of bowl eligibility, and are currently below .500, while the Duke Blue Devils are already bowl eligible, and flying high at 6-2. Head coach David Cutcliffe has done an amazing job getting the Dukies to a bowl in consecutive seasons for the first time in school history. As such, some shops have Duke favored by double-digits, while most others have them installed as a 9 1/2-point favorite. Either way, it's a role reversal from what we're used to seeing. NC State has won 11 of the past 12 meetings, but they were tripped up in the last meeting in 2009. The Wolfpack is just 2-7-1 ATS in their past 10 road games, and 2-5-1 in their past eight road games against a team with a winning record. The Blue Devils have piled up the wins against patsies - and the covers - going 4-1 ATS in their past five against teams with a losing record. They're also proficient at home, going 11-5 ATS in their past 16 at Wallace Wade. While NC State has covered four of the past five at Duke, the circumstances are much different. NC State was better in all of those games than they are now, and Duke was a much lesser team.

Virginia Tech at Miami, Fl. (ESPN, 7:00 p.m. ET)
The Hokies are in a tailspin heading down to Miami, which might be just what the Hurricanes need after being exposed in Tallahassee. Miami was shown they are a good, but not great, team by FSU last weekend, and the clock finally struck midnight after UM nearly lost to North Carolina and Wake Forest in previous games. Va. Tech is 10-23-2 ATS in their past 35 games overall, and 1-9 ATS in their past 10 road games, including last weekend's shocking setback at Boston College. The Hurricanes have been dominant at home, going 8-2 ATS in their past 10. Sure, they didn't cover their last game against Wake at home, but they have been a different team at Sun Life Stadium. Keep in mind, though, the Hokies are 5-1 ATS in the past six trips to South Florida, and 9-3 ATS in the past 12 meetings. The dog is also 4-1 ATS in the past five outings. The under might also be a strong play, too, as it has cashed in five straight meetings in Miami, and eight of the past 10 in this series. Plus, the under is 5-1 in VT's past six ACC games, and 8-2-1 in their past 11 overall. The under is also 6-2 in Miami's past eight against winning teams, and 45-21-1 in their past 67 at home.

Notre Dame at Pittsburgh (ABC, 8:00 p.m. ET)
In Notre Dame's past 10 wins, the margin of victory has been a touchdown or less. That's something to keep in mind if you plan to bet the Irish. They're a four-point favorite most everywhere, but if they do cover, it could still be a very close shave. The Irish is 3-1-1 ATS in their past five non-conference tilts, while Pitt is 8-1 ATS in their past nine home games against a team with a winning road record. The Panthers are also 15-7 ATS in their past 22 against winning teams. Pitt has definitely had Notre Dame's number lately, though, going 3-1-1 ATS in the past five meetings, while the dog is a whopping 7-0-1 ATS in the past eight in this series. However, the road team is 6-1-1 ATS in the past eight, so that bodes well for Notre Dame.

Other Games
Syracuse at Maryland (3:30pm ET)
Boston College at New Mexico State (3:30pm ET)

Byes
Clemson, Georgia Tech

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Saturday's Top Action

November 8, 2013


LSU TIGERS (7-2) at ALABAMA CRIMSON TIDE (8-0)

Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Alabama -12.5 & 55
Opening Line & Total: Crimson Tide -11 & 55

No. 10 LSU will get its shot to take down the two-time reigning national champions when it travels to No. 1 Alabama Saturday night for an SEC showdown.

Alabama has been unbelievably dominant lately, giving up a total of 26 points in its past six games. The Crimson Tide are now 5-3 ATS this season, covering the spread in their past three games and four of their past five contests. LSU is 1-1 SU and 0-2 ATS in its past two games, crushing Furman last week after a disappointing loss as a 9.5-point road favorite to Ole Miss. Since LSU's 9-6 win in Tuscaloosa in 2011, Alabama won the national championship 21-0 in the rematch two months later, but needed a touchdown in the final minute of last year's matchup in Baton Rouge to win 21-17 after the Tigers had missed a couple of field goals. LSU outgained Alabama in that game 435 to 331 and its offense may lead the Tigers to victory in this one, as road underdogs averaging more than 450 yards per game, after gaining more than 7.25 yards per play in their previous game, are 36-8 ATS (82%) over the past five seasons. But Alabama is 13-3 ATS (81%) after gaining 7.25+ yards per play in its previous game under Nick Saban. Overall, LSU is 4-4-1 ATS this season including 1-1-1 ATS on the road. Saban’s squad is 5-3 ATS overall and 3-2 ATS at home.

LSU QB Zach Mettenberger has been tremendous this year, completing 65.4% of his passes for 2,492 yards and 19 TD, getting picked off seven times. The team lives and dies on his arm, as he threw three interceptions and only one touchdown in the team’s loss to Ole Miss. He was great in last year’s narrow defeat to Alabama, completing 24-of-35 passes for 298 yards and 1 TD. He almost exclusively throws to two targets in WRs Odell Beckham (48 catches, 1,009 yards, 8 TD) and Jarvis Landry (58 catches, 882 yards, 8 TD), both of whom have big-play ability. Landry caught the lone touchdown against the Tide last year. On the ground, RB Jeremy Hill bears the brunt of the workload and is nearing the 1,000-yard mark with 128 carries for 922 yards and 12 touchdowns. Hill rushed for 107 yards and a touchdown in last year’s meeting with Alabama. Reserve RBs Terrence Magee and Kenny Hilliard have also combined for 11 TD this year. The LSU defense has been stout against the run this season, yielding only 3.9 YPC. The Tigers have been decent, but not great, against the pass, holding opponents to a 57.9% completion rate.

Alabama’s defense has made its mark as one of the best in recent memory this year, only slipping up when it surrendered 42 points to Johnny Manziel and Texas A&M. Mettenberger will have his work cut out for him, going against a pass defense that has allowed opponents to complete only 49.6% of passes. The rush defense is giving up just 3.4 YPC. The offense hasn't been too shabby either. Heisman candidate QB AJ McCarron, who is now 33-2 as a starter in his career, marshals the Alabama offense. He has also been ultra efficient with 16 TD and 3 INT this year, completing 69.4% of his passes for 1,862 yards. He distributes the ball well, as six players have at least two receiving touchdowns. WRs Kevin Norwood (23 catches, 348 yards, 3 TD) and DeAndrew White (22 catches, 329 yards, 3 TD) lead the way. McCarron wasn’t great against LSU last year, completing only 14-of-27 passes, but he orchestrated a game-winning drive late in the game that he capped off with a touchdown pass. RB T.J. Yeldon caught that pass for his lone reception of the game. He leads Alabama this year in rushing with 115 carries for 729 yards and 10 touchdowns. RB Kenyan Drake also has seven scores with his legs.

MISSISSIPPI STATE BULLDOGS (4-4) at TEXAS A&M AGGIES (7-2)

Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Texas A&M -6.5 & 56
Opening Line & Total: Aggies -7 & 56

No. 11 Texas A&M will look to win its third straight game (SU and ATS) when it hosts heavy underdog Mississippi State on Saturday afternoon.

The Aggies are just 4-5 ATS this season but have won two in a row, beating Vanderbilt and UTEP in consecutive weeks by a combined margin of 113 to 31. Those two big wins followed a disappointing 45-41 home loss to Auburn in which they were 12.5-point favorites. Meanwhile, the Bulldogs are 4-4 SU and 3-5 ATS this season, dropping their past four games ATS after a hot start. An upset appears unlikely for Mississippi State as the team is 0-13 SU and 3-10 ATS as an underdog over the past three years. Over the past two seasons, the Bulldogs are 0-7 ATS against teams with a winning percentage of more than 75%. That includes last year’s 38-13 home loss to the Aggies, when Texas A&M racked up 693 yards and moved the ball at will.

The Aggies offense is one of the best in the nation again this year, ranking fourth nationally in scoring (49.0 PPG) and sixth in passing yards (371.8 per game). That’s because QB Johnny Manziel is having another Heisman-caliber season, completing 200-of-276 of his passes (73%) for 2,867 yards with 26 touchdowns and only eight picks. He has also run for 564 yards and 8 TD on 96 carries, averaging 5.9 YPC. His top target through the air has been WR Mike Evans (52 catches, 1,147 yards, 12 TD), while 11 different Aggies have caught the ball in the end zone already this year. Supplementing Manziel’s production on the ground is RB Ben Malena, who has 89 carries for 456 yards (5.1 YPC) and eight touchdowns. Last year against the Bulldogs, Manziel completed an incredible 30-of-36 passes for 311 yards and ran for 129 more, scoring twice with his legs. Malena also had a big game, rushing for 112 yards on 17 carries. A&M’s defense has been its weakness this year, surrendering 5.1 YPC on the ground and 7.3 yards per attempt through the air.

Last year, the Bulldogs managed only 310 yards against the Aggies defense. But QB Dak Prescott is under center now. Prescott has completed 59.1% of his passes this year, throwing for five touchdowns and six interceptions. As those numbers suggest, he isn’t much of a threat through the air, but he can definitely make plays with his legs, racking up a team-high 568 yards on the ground on 6.0 YPC, while rushing for 10 scores. His top receiving target has been WR Jameon Lewis, who has four receiving touchdowns and 491 yards in 2013. The Mississippi State defense must limit Manziel more than it did last year. Their rush defense has been fine, giving up 4.4 YPC, while through the air they allow 6.8 yards per pass attempt, with opponents completing 60.8% of their passes.

TEXAS LONGHORNS (6-2) at WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINEERS (4-5)

Sportsbook.ag Line & Total: Texas
Opening Line & Total: Longhorns

Texas looks to stay unbeaten in the Big 12 when it travels to Morgantown Saturday night to take on West Virginia.

Last season, these two teams squared off in Austin in what turned out to be one of the most entertaining games of the Big 12 season, with the Mountaineers holding on for a 48-45 victory. However things are different this year, as both teams have new quarterbacks running the show. Texas is led by Case McCoy, who has taken over for last year's starter David Ash, who remains out indefinitely with a concussion. While McCoy has not put up huge numbers, he has been solid and played smart football while relying on the Longhorns' top-notch running game (203 YPG, 29th in FBS). The problem for Texas has been consistency, as it has a tendency to play beneath its talent in some weeks. Through their first eight games, the Longhorns are 4-4 ATS, including failing to cover during their victory over Kansas last season. While the Mountaineers have struggled this season, they have shown the ability to play well at home as an underdog, defeating Oklahoma State 30-21 despite being 21-point underdogs on Sept. 28. Life without Geno Smith has been difficult, as the offense under current QB Clint Trickett has really struggled to find consistency. This has really hurt the team as the defense has improved greatly from last year. But the WVU defense has faced a good chunk of passing teams like Oklahoma State and Baylor, but has a different challenge this weekend against the run-first Longhorns. Texas failed to cover the big spread versus Kansas last week, but the school is 52-40 ATS (57%) after an ATS loss under head coach Mack Brown. A big trend favoring the Mountaineers is that any average rushing team (3.5 to 4.3 YPC) facing a poor rushing defense (4.3 to 4.8 YPC) after 7+ games, after allowing 100 rushing yards or less in its last game is 33-8 ATS (81%) over the past five seasons.

While a lot of teams have one running back capable of having a big day, the Longhorns have three. Johnathan Gray (724 rush yards, 4 TD) leads the team this season, but Malcolm Brown was the guy that helped Texas defeat Kansas last weekend by rushing for 149 yards and four touchdowns. He has now rushed for 100 yards in two of the past three weeks. RB Joe Bergeron (5.6 YPC) has played sparingly during his team's five-game win streak with a total of 12 carries, but he rushed for four short touchdowns against WVU last year. Texas has finally begun to establish an identity on offense, and it is using the running game to set up the passing game, where it does have playmakers on the outside. WR Mike Davis (30 rec., 386 yards, 5 TD) is a talented wide receiver that can be dominant when he is focused. Davis has great size at 6-foot-2, but can also run away from the secondary as well. West Virginia is going to be looking to try and stop the run of the Longhorns, which should set up some opportunities deep down the field for McCoy (1,188 pass yards, 7.0 YPA, 5 TD, 5 INT) to take his chances through the air. The defense is starting to turn the corner, allowing just 13.3 points per game in their past three contests. Linebacker Steve Edmond has played very well this season, totaling 47 tackles, two sacks and one interception. He is a big strong linebacker that also has the ability to run side-to-side. The defense must continue to play well, and force WVU QB Clint Trickett to have to get outside the pocket.

Trickett has thrown for 1,218 yards and five touchdowns this season, but has also thrown five interceptions as well. He is coming off one of his better performances of the year in leading his Mountaineers to a 30-27 victory over TCU last weekend, throwing for 267 yards and two touchdowns. Luckily for Trickett, he has one of the best running backs in the Big 12 in Charles Sims, who has rushed for 754 yards and five touchdowns on the season, and is also coming off a big game against TCU with 189 total yards and 2 TD. The Mountaineers are going to play very similar to the way the Longhorns will, as they will try to run the ball to help set up the passing game. With a defense that struggles to stop teams, they must win the time of possession battle and keep the Texas offense off the field. The WVU defense allows 30.0 PPG, which ranks 92nd in the country. In conference play, it has been even worst, at 35.5 PPG. One of the big problems on defense is the inability to make the tackle. The Mountaineers have decent speed and can run around well, but allow too many runners to get extra yards after contact. LB Nick Kwiatkoski has started to play well for the Mountaineers, averaging 7.9 tackles per game. He also had an interception last weekend, and must be proficient in shedding blockers to tackle the Longhorns running backs.