NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 7 (Thursday, October 17 - Monday, October 21)

[Udog]

NFL

Sunday, October 20

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Cowboys at Eagles: What bettors need to know
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Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5, 55.5)

The NFC East is hardly a dominant division, but someone has to emerge as the best of the bunch. The Dallas Cowboys and host Philadelphia Eagles will battle for first place on Sunday in a divisional matchup that could feature a back-and-forth aerial display. Philadelphia has given up the second-most passing yards in the NFL on average (314.5), while Dallas’ mark is the third-worst in the league (308.2).

That could be good news for Eagles quarterback Nick Foles, who was named the NFC’s Offensive Player of the Week after torching the Buccaneers for 296 yards and three touchdowns in a 31-20 victory. Michael Vick missed that game with a hamstring injury and will sit out versus Dallas, but don’t expect any sympathy cards from the Cowboys’ coaching staff. The laundry list of injuries for Dallas includes star linebacker DeMarcus Ware (quadriceps), who has never missed a game in his nine-year career, and running back DeMarco Murray (knee), who also appears unlikely to play this Sunday.

TV: 1 p.m. ET, Fox.

LINE: The Eagles opened -3 and are now -2.5.The total opened at 56.5 and is down one point.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-60s with clear skies in Philly. Wind will blow across the field at 12 mph.

ABOUT THE COWBOYS (3-3): Tony Romo’s interceptions are always put under the microscope, but the Dallas quarterback has 14 touchdown passes against only three INTs this season. Jason Witten could be in for a big game, as the Philadelphia defense has struggled against tight ends this season and Witten has given the Eagles fits throughout his career. The biggest concern for Philadelphia might be Dallas return man Dwayne Harris, who had an 86-yard punt return for a touchdown and a 90-yard kickoff return in last week’s victory over Washington.

ABOUT THE EAGLES (3-3): The Eagles, who lead the NFL with 178.5 rushing yards per game, gave the ball to LeSean McCoy 25 times last weekend, resulting in a 116-yard performance for the league’s leading rusher. McCoy has 630 rushing yards and his stellar season has somewhat overshadowed teammate DeSean Jackson, who is second in the NFL with 589 receiving yards under first-year coach Chip Kelly. That said, nobody on the Eagles overshadows Jason Peters – literally – but the massive offensive tackle could miss Sunday’s game with a shoulder injury.

TRENDS:

* Cowboys are 5-1 ATS in their last six games overall.
* Over is 5-0 in Eagles last five vs. NFC.
* Road team is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Eagles are 1-5 ATS in their last six games in Week 7.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Both the Eagles and Cowboys are 2-0 within the NFC East, 1-0 against the rest of the NFC and 0-3 against the AFC West.

2. On Wednesday, Dallas released four-time Pro Bowl DT Jay Ratliff (sports hernia, hamstring).

3. No team has allowed more yards per game (420.2) or first downs per game (25.3) than the Eagles.


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[Udog]

Where the action is: Sunday's NFL line moves

Peyton Manning and his return to Indianapolis is stealing headlines, but Week 7 of the NFL schedule contains a few more intriguing matchups than just the Broncos at the Colts.

We talk to oddsmakers about the biggest adjustments to the Week 7 odds and where the action is heading into Sunday's kickoffs:

New England Patriots at New York Jets - Open: +6, Move: +4

The Pats might be 5-1 straight up, but bettors are fading the AFC East giants. TE Rob Gronkowski has been cleared to play but remains listed as questionable as we inch closer toward Sunday's kickoff.

"Early sharp money is fading the Patriots," says Peter Childs, an oddsmaker with Sportsbook.ag. "Monday, we got sharp bet at +6 and moved to +5. Another wiseguy play on Tuesday made us move the number to Pats -4. Seventy percent of money is on New England."

St. Louis Rams at Carolina Panthers - Open: -7

A matchup featuring a pair of such inconsistent teams naturally has sharps and the betting public at opposite ends of the spectrum.

"Sharps are backing the St. Louis dog number at +7 and the public is backing Carolina at any number," an oddsmaker with BetDSI tells Covers. "When this happens you get some interesting trends with current wager count favoring the Panthers 2-to-1 while total volume wagered favors the Rams 2-to-1."

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons - Open: -8, Move: -7

The Bucs are one of just three teams without a victory and the Falcons are nothing to write home about either. The latter is hobbling into this NFC South tilt incredibly banged up and without many weapons for QB Matt Ryan.

"Wiseguys taking the dog here makes some sense," Childs tells Covers. "After all, the Falcons are coming off back-to-back home losses on nationally televised games. Also, Julio Jones is out and it doesn't appear Roddy White will play either."

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers Open: -3, Move: -2.5

The Ravens continue to be a favorite of sharp bettors yet again in this AFC North affair. Ravens QB Joe Flacco may have turned the corner as he did not turn the ball over in the loss to Green Bay one week ago.

"Sharp money liked Baltimore last week and the love affair continues this week," say BetDSI. "Sharps are backing the Ravens at +3 -120. Sharp money is also backing the over 40 value which has been moved to 41."

Chicago Bears at Washington Redskins - Open: Pick, Move: -1

The opening line here ranged anywhere from a pick to Skins -2 at various wagering outlets. Washington is just 1-4 both SU and ATS this season, but are seeing the bulk of action at home.

"On Tuesday morning, wiseguy play came on Washington, so moved them to -1," Childs says. "Sixty-nine percent of cash is on Washington."

BetDSI also states that sharp money has been coming in on the Over 48 for this matchup and that public money will have its say as well.

"Public money is and will continue to add to the over driving it up to the current 49.5 value."

[Udog]

Essential betting tidbits for Week 7 of the NFL

We dug up these vital betting tidbits for some of Sunday's NFL action that will help you make the right call before kickoff.

- Falcons QB Matt Ryan is 34-7 SU in home starts despite dropping the last two games at the Georgia Dome.

- The Buccaneers certainly fare well in Georgia. The Bucs are 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings in Atlanta. Bucs are +6 dogs Sunday.

- The Chicago Bears are the third highest scoring team in the NFL at 28.7 points per game and are 5-1 O/U this season.

- The Redskins have had the Bears number in recent history. The Skins have won four-straight games and eight of the last 10. They are 8-2 ATS in those last 10 games.

- No team has allowed more yards per game (420.2) or first downs per game (25.3) than the Philadelphia Eagles.

- The Cowboys are tied with the K.C. Chiefs with the top ATS record in the league at 5-1. Cowboys are 2.5-point road faves Sunday.

- The New England Patriots have won the last two meetings in New Jersey against the New York Jets by a combined 51 points. Pats are 3.5-point road faves Sunday.

- Speaking of the Pats, they are the top Covers consensus pick with 74.65 percent siding with the road team.

- The Bills can't pass and can't stop the pass. Buffalo ranks 29th in passing offense (213.5) and 22nd in pass defense (270.8 yards).

- Nobody gets sacked more than Dolphins QB Ryan Tannehill at 4.8 per game.

- The Under is 4-0 in the last four meetings between the St. Louis Rams and Carolina Panthers. Sunday's total currently 42.5.

- The Cincinnati Bengals lead the series with the Detroit Lions 7-3 and have won the last four meetings, with the last victory coming in 2009. The Bengals are 5-2 ATS in the last seven meetings, dating back to 1986.

- Total bettors will like the totals at Ford Field, where the over is 5-1 in the Lions last six home games. Sunday's total is currently 46.5.

- The San Diego Chargers have outscored the Jacksonville Jaguars in the last two meetings by a score of 76-27. Chargers are 9.5-point road faves Sunday.

- The Tennessee Titans have been outscored 156-47 during a four-game losing streak against NFC teams. Titans are 3-point home dogs against the NFC West San Fraincisco 49ers Sunday.

The Green Bay Packers have won 10 straight regular season and playoff home games by an average margin of 14.6 points. The Pack are 10-point home faves versus Cleveland.

- The Over is 7-2-1 in the last 10 meetings at Pittsburgh between the Ravens and Steelers. Sunday's total is currently 41.

- The Steelers have the second-worst rushing offense in the league with 61.0 yards per game - just half a yard more than the dreadful Jaguars.

- The Chiefs have not started 7-0 since winning their first nine games in 2003, and they are the first team to win its first six games after losing 14 or more the previous season.

- The Over in the Denver Broncos at Indianapolis Colts Sunday nighter is the top Covers consensus total pick with 76.23 percent siding on the over 57.

- The Broncos have played over the total in each of their first six games this season.

[jt4545]

Thanks for all the work and good luck

[Udog]

Thanks for all the work and good luck

NP, jt! Good luck today!

How bout those Rebels?

[Udog]

NFL

Monday, October 21

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Monday Night Football betting: Vikings at Giants
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Minnesota Vikings at New York Giants (-3.5, 47.5)

The quarterback carousel continues to spin in Minnesota and the latest man up is newly acquired Josh Freeman, who will draw the start when the Vikings visit the winless New York Giants on Monday. Freeman, who opened the season with Tampa Bay and quickly fell out of favor, will be the third quarterback to start this season for Minnesota. Backup Matt Cassel failed to get the team into the end zone until the final minute in last week's 35-10 home loss to Carolina.

New York, one of three winless teams remaining, had an 11-day break between games following a 27-21 defeat at Chicago - a division rival of the Vikings - on Oct. 10. That marked the lowest point total allowed by the Giants, who have surrendered a staggering 34.8 points per game, dead last in the league. Eli Manning has thrown an NFL-high 15 interceptions - matching his number from last season - and is a big reason why the Giants have committed a league-worst 23 turnovers.

TV: 8:40 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE: The Giants opened as 2.5-point faves and are now -3.5. The total opened at 47 and is currently 47.5.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-50s with sunny skies. Wind will blow toward the N endzone at 5 mph.

ABOUT THE VIKINGS (1-4): Freeman's elevation to starter appeared to be a formality once he was signed less than two weeks ago following his release by the Buccaneers. "He's done enough for us to say we want to give him this opportunity, which is something we had in mind when we acquired him," Vikings coach Leslie Frazier said. Freeman does have the luxury of leaning on standout running back Adrian Peterson, who is fourth in the league in rushing (483) but was limited to a season-low 62 yards last week following the death of his 2-year-old son two days earlier.

ABOUT THE GIANTS (0-6): New York is in the midst of its worst start since dropping nine in a row to start the 1976 season and the problems are widespread. Manning has been the biggest culprit in committing a stream of turnovers and that, combined with a non-existent running game, has placed inordinate pressure on a defense that sits at the bottom of the league with a mere five sacks. "Right now we're careless with the football and it strikes right at my gut because that's one of the things that we preach about the most," Giants coach Tom Coughlin said.

TRENDS:

* Vikings are 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings in New York.
* Vikings are 0-5 ATS in their last five Monday games.
* Giants are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.
* Over is 7-1 in Vikings last eight Monday games.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Giants RB Brandon Jacobs ran for 106 yards and two TDs last week but is dealing with a hamstring injury, necessitating the signing of RB Peyton Hillis.

2. Freeman threw for 27 TDs and more than 4,000 yards in 2012, but he completed only 45.7 percent of his passes with Tampa Bay this season.

3. The Giants ended a four-game losing streak in the series with a 21-3 win in December 2010, a game played at Detroit's Ford Field after snow caused the roof to collapse at the Metrodome in Minneapolis.


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