NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 7 (Thursday, October 17 - Monday, October 21)

[Udog]

NFL Trends and Indexes

Thursday, October 17 - Monday, October 21

Additional trends and information will be added as available.

NOTE:
As information becomes available, we will attempt to post the trends and indexes as soon as possible.
Information is posted from what we believe are reliable sources.
Any opinions expressed are not necessarily those of the posting member or BettorsChat.

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[Udog]

Where the action is: NFL mid-week line moves

Two up-and-down teams butt heads in the Motor City. Some shops opened as low as Detroit -1 while others opened -3 and dropped to -2.5 with action on the Bengals.

“Cincinnati just can’t seem to get the offense going,” says Stoneback. “Detroit has been able put up points, but both have been very inconsistent.”

San Diego Chargers at Jacksonville Jaguars – Open: +9, Move: +7.5

This is one of the least-bet games on the Week 7 board, according to Stoneback. However, whatever action has come in is on the Jaguars. Bettors are turning around on Jacksonville in recent weeks.

After fading the Jags through the first five weeks, the public backed Jacksonville last week and are back on them again versus the Chargers.

“People would have easily given two touchdowns on the road with the Jags two weeks ago. They would have had no problem with it,” says Stoneback. “Now, after last week, they think Jacksonville may be able to keep this within a touchdown.”

Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles – Open: -1, Move: -3

Some markets opened this spread with Philadelphia as a slight home favorite and moved that quickly to the key number of three. Stoneback says the Eagles have been a popular play with the sharps in recent weeks, and could see that attention again even with Nick Foles under center for the injured Mike Vick.

“I don’t think there is a much of a difference on the spread between Foles and Vick. It’s more of a system there in Philly,” says Stoneback. “If Vick was in, there’s no way this would be at -3.5.”

Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs – Open: -4.5, Move: -7.5

This line has moved as many as three points at some markets, with the Texans in a nose dive and headed straight to Arrowhead Stadium, where the record for loudest crowd was just set. Sounds like a recipe for disaster.

“The public thinks Houston is done,” says Stoneback, who notes that action on the Chiefs is outnumber bets on the Texans at 12/1. “They’ve fallen apart. I could see this one going to seven by Sunday and maybe the sharps buying back Houston.”

Cleveland Browns at Green Bay Packers – Open: -12, Move: -10

The Packers lost WRs James Jones and Randle Cobb to knee injuries last Sunday and already are missing key cogs on the defensive side of the ball. Early money has trimmed this spread as many as two points at some books.

“We opened Cleveland +10.5 and took early action on the Browns and moved down to +10,” says Stoneback. “Cleveland gave up 31 points last week but this is a pretty good defense. If the Browns can score a touchdown or two, it’s tough to lay double digits.”

[Udog]

Inside the stats: AFC vs. NFC producing Over winners

Each week we take a look inside the numbers, from both a statistical and a pointspread aspect, on the college football and NFL cards.

Here are this week’s findings:

Leaking oil scorecard

When a team has been outgained in each of its three previous games I refer to them as “leaking oil”.

There have been 10 college football and four NFL teams that have been installed as “leaking oil” favorites this season. Collectively, they are 2-12 ATS (1-9 NCAAF/1-3 NFL).

Last week saw Connecticut (-3.5) and the Minnesota Vikings (-2.5) laying points. They both lost straight up.

This week’s “leaking oil” plays would be against: Akron, Georgia Tech, Northwestern, Notre Dame, Rice and Temple in college football, along with Detroit, Miami and the N.Y. Giants in the NFL.

Deep six

With the season approaching the midway point, let’s take one final look at expanding our bankroll with college football teams in Game 6 situations.

Our database reports a turning point for 3-2 or better teams that take to the road when playing off a loss. They win and continue with the prospects of donning bowling shirts, or they lose and begin entertaining visions of staying home for the holidays. Thus, these become pivotal games on each team’s schedule.

These savvy travelers, playing off one-loss exact, respond with vigor in Game 6 scenarios, going 103-73-3 ATS in all games since 1980. That represents a rock-solid 60 percent winning spread mark.

This week finds Navy patrolling the waters in this “Deep Six” scenario.

Better yet, when priced as dogs in competitive situations (+10 or fewer points) they improve to 42-21-1 ATS.

The best role occurs when these same visitors take on a foe off win who sports a .500 or greater record, as they improve to 25-8-1 ATS in these spirited battles, including 18-3-1 ATS in games in which the foe allows 14.8 or more PPG on the season.

Mr. Clean

To a football player, winning games on the playing field is practically as good as winning them on the scoreboard.

It means your team outplayed the other team, regardless of what the final score said. It’s also a strong indicator of what results we can expect in future games.

Here is a list of college football teams that are perfect ITS (In The Stats) in all games this season to date:

• Arizona State, Baylor, BYU, Florida State, Georgia, Louisville, Michigan State, Oregon, UCLA and Western Kentucky.

Here is a list of college football teams that are winless ITS (In The Stats) this season:

• Akron, Miami Ohio, New Mexico State and Temple.

In the NFL, the only perfect ITS team is Houston (surprise), while the winless ITS clubs include Miami, Minnesota and Tampa Bay.

Highs and lows

The average total in the 14 NFL games last week was 45.5. The average total points per game was 43.8.

The average game went Under by -1.7 points. Strange, considering 60 percent of the overall games went Over the total (9-6).

It was the second straight week in which there were more Overs than Unders.

The best Over situation has been in non-conference games (AFC vs. NFC). These games have gone 22-10 O/U.

This week’s potential non-conference Overs would be: Cincinnati at Detroit, San Francisco at Tennessee and Cleveland at Green Bay.

Stat of the Week

The Miami Dolphins are 3-19 ATS as home favorites in games in which they own a win percentage of .454 or higher.

[Udog]

NFL
Dunkel

Week 7

Seattle at Arizona
The Seahawks look to follow up their 20-13 win over Tennessee last weekend and build on their 4-0 ATS record in their last 4 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game. Seattle is the pick (-6) according to Dunkel, which has the Seahawks favored by 9 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-6). Here are all of this week's picks.

THURSDAY, OCTOBER 17

Game 303-304: Seattle at Arizona (8:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 139.896; Arizona 130.321
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 9 1/2; 37
Vegas Line: Seattle by 6; 41
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-6); Under


SUNDAY, OCTOBER 20

Game 397-398: New England at NY Jets (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New England 135.551; NY Jets 133.905
Dunkel Line: New England by 1 1/2; 47
Vegas Line: New England by 4; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Jets (+4); Over

Game 399-400: San Diego at Jacksonville (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego 124.227; Jacksonville 120.470
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 4; 49
Vegas Line: San Diego by 7 1/2; 45
Dunkel Pick: Jacksonville (+7 1/2); Over

Game 401-402: Houston at Kansas City (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 131.179; Kansas City 134.702
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 3 1/2; 36
Vegas Line: Kansas City by 6 1/2; 40
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+6 1/2); Under

Game 403-404: Cincinnati at Detroit (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 134.756; Detroit 134.751
Dunkel Line: Even; 52
Vegas Line: Detroit by 2 1/2; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+2 1/2); Over

Game 405-406: Buffalo at Miami (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 128.385; Miami 138.652
Dunkel Line: Miami by 10 1/2;
Vegas Line: Miami by 8; 42 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Miami (-8); Under

Game 407-408: Chicago at Washington (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 130.383; Washington 133.433
Dunkel Line: Washington by 3; 46
Vegas Line: Washington by 1; 50 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (-1); Under

Game 409-410: Dallas at Philadelphia (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 135.304; Philadelphia 127.184
Dunkel Line: Dallas by 8; 59
Vegas Line: Philadelphia by 3; 55 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (+3); Over

Game 411-412: St. Louis at Carolina (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 128.746; Carolina 131.954
Dunkel Line: Carolina by 3; 47
Vegas Line: Carolina by 6; 42
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+6); Over

Game 413-414: Tampa Bay at Atlanta (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 123.753; Atlanta 135.974
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 12; 38
Vegas Line: Atlanta by 7; 43
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-7); Under

Game 415-416: San Francisco at Tennessee (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco 138.809; Tennessee 131.964
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 7; 37
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 4; 40
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-4); Under

Game 417-418: Cleveland at Green Bay (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 129.437; Green Bay 141.273
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 12; 52
Vegas Line: Green Bay by 10; 46
Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (-10); Over

Game 419-420: Baltimore at Pittsburgh (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore 134.762; Pittsburgh 127.102
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 7 1/2; 36
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 2; 41
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (+2); Under

Game 421-422: Denver at Indianapolis (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 141.447; Indianapolis 142.088
Dunkel Line: Indianapolis by 1; 60
Vegas Line: Denver by 7; 56 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (+7); Over


MONDAY, OCTOBER 21

Game 423-424: Minnesota at NY Giants (8:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 127.329; NY Giants 123.995
Dunkel Line: Minnesota by 3 1/2; 50
Vegas Line: NY Giants by 3 1/2; 46
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+3 1/2); Over

[Udog]

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 7

Thursday, October 17

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SEATTLE (5 - 1) at ARIZONA (3 - 3) - 10/17/2013, 8:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 27-52 ATS (-30.2 Units) in October games since 1992.
SEATTLE is 36-55 ATS (-24.5 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
SEATTLE is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA is 2-2 against the spread versus SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
ARIZONA is 2-2 straight up against SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Sunday, October 20

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NEW ENGLAND (5 - 1) at NY JETS (3 - 3) - 10/20/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 100-71 ATS (+21.9 Units) in road games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 100-71 ATS (+21.9 Units) in road lined games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 154-116 ATS (+26.4 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 78-55 ATS (+17.5 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 45-25 ATS (+17.5 Units) in road games versus division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 3-2 against the spread versus NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 5-0 straight up against NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SAN DIEGO (2 - 3) at JACKSONVILLE (0 - 6) - 10/20/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN DIEGO is 21-3 ATS (+17.7 Units) against AFC South division opponents since 1992.
JACKSONVILLE is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN DIEGO is 1-0 against the spread versus JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
SAN DIEGO is 1-0 straight up against JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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HOUSTON (2 - 4) at KANSAS CITY (6 - 0) - 10/20/2013, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in all games this season.
HOUSTON is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in all lined games this season.
HOUSTON is 35-18 ATS (+15.2 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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CINCINNATI (4 - 2) at DETROIT (4 - 2) - 10/20/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 31-49 ATS (-22.9 Units) in October games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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BUFFALO (2 - 4) at MIAMI (3 - 2) - 10/20/2013, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 3-1 against the spread versus BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 3-1 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CHICAGO (4 - 2) at WASHINGTON (1 - 4) - 10/20/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
WASHINGTON is 69-95 ATS (-35.5 Units) in home games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 69-95 ATS (-35.5 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 69-95 ATS (-35.5 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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DALLAS (3 - 3) at PHILADELPHIA (3 - 3) - 10/20/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 8-18 ATS (-11.8 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 153-116 ATS (+25.4 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
PHILADELPHIA is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 0-9 ATS (-9.9 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 3-1 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 2-2 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ST LOUIS (3 - 3) at CAROLINA (2 - 3) - 10/20/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 131-166 ATS (-51.6 Units) in all games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 131-166 ATS (-51.6 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 8-21 ATS (-15.1 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 94-130 ATS (-49.0 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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TAMPA BAY (0 - 5) at ATLANTA (1 - 4) - 10/20/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 3-14 ATS (-12.4 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 3 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 2-1 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 2-2 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SAN FRANCISCO (4 - 2) at TENNESSEE (3 - 3) - 10/20/2013, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN FRANCISCO is 19-35 ATS (-19.5 Units) in a road game where the total is between 38.5 and 42 points since 1992.
TENNESSEE is 40-20 ATS (+18.0 Units) in non-conference games since 1992.
SAN FRANCISCO is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 27-15 ATS (+10.5 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 27-15 ATS (+10.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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CLEVELAND (3 - 3) at GREEN BAY (3 - 2) - 10/20/2013, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) as a home favorite of 10.5 to 14 points over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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BALTIMORE (3 - 3) at PITTSBURGH (1 - 4) - 10/20/2013, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 49-30 ATS (+16.0 Units) in October games since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 57-33 ATS (+20.7 Units) in weeks 5 through 9 since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
BALTIMORE is 2-1 against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 3-1 straight up against PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DENVER (6 - 0) at INDIANAPOLIS (4 - 1) - 10/20/2013, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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Monday, October 21

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MINNESOTA (1 - 4) at NY GIANTS (0 - 6) - 10/21/2013, 8:40 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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[Udog]

NFL
Short Sheet

Week 7

Thursday, October 17

Seattle at Arizona, 8:25 ET
Seattle: 11-3 ATS off a home win
Arizona: 2-8 ATS in October games


Sunday, October 20

New England at New York Jets, 1:00 ET
New England: 7-3 OVER as a road favorite of 3.5 to 7 points
NY Jets: 16-4 ATS in home games off a home loss

San Diego at Jacksonville, 1:00 ET
San Diego: 22-3 ATS against AFC South division opponents
Jacksonville: 1-8 ATS as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points

Houston at Kansas City, 4:25 ET
Houston: 0-6 ATS in all games
Kansas City: 14-5 UNDER in home games

Cincinnati at Detroit, 1:00 ET
Cincinnati: 6-0 UNDER off a road win
Detroit: 0-6 ATS after a win by 10 or more points

Buffalo at Miami, 1:00 ET
Buffalo: 3-11 ATS after playing a game at home
Miami: 9-1 UNDER after 2 or more consecutive losses

Chicago at Washington, 1:00 ET
Chicago: 26-12 UNDER in road games after 2 or more consecutive ATS losses
Washington: 35-59 ATS as a home favorite

Dallas at Philadelphia, 1:00 ET
Dallas: 8-18 ATS against conference opponents
Philadelphia: 153-116 ATS against conference opponents

St Louis at Carolina, 1:00 ET
St Louis: 8-21 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points
Carolina: 51-31 ATS after allowing 14 points or less last gam

Tampa Bay at Atlanta, 1:00 ET
Tampa Bay: 19-4 ATS after gaining 99 or less rushing yards in 3 straight games
Atlanta: 15-32 ATS in home games after playing a game at home

San Francisco at Tennessee, 4:05 ET
San Francisco: 19-35 ATS in a road game where the total is between 38.5 and 42 points
Tennessee: 40-20 ATS in non-conference games

Cleveland at Green Bay, 4:25 ET
Cleveland: 1-5 ATS after allowing 30 points or more last game
Green Bay: 15-5 ATS in home games

Baltimore at Pittsburgh, 4:25 ET
Baltimore: 19-8 UNDER in road games after gaining 75 or less rushing yards
Pittsburgh: 12-3 UNDER as a home favorite

Denver at Indianapolis, 8:30 ET
Denver: 1-10 ATS after scoring 25 points or more in 5 straight games
Indianapolis: 9-2 ATS after having won 2 out of their last 3 games


Monday, October 21

Minnesota at New York Giants, 8:40 ET
Minnesota: 5-1 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite
NY Giants: 1-5 ATS in all games

[Udog]

NFL

Week 7

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Trend Report
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Thursday, October 17

8:25 PM
SEATTLE vs. ARIZONA
Seattle is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Arizona
Seattle is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Arizona
Arizona is 11-4 SU in its last 15 games at home
Arizona is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against Seattle


Sunday, October 20

1:00 PM
CINCINNATI vs. DETROIT
Cincinnati is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Cincinnati is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games when playing Detroit
Detroit is 4-10 SU in its last 14 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 6 games when playing Cincinnati

1:00 PM
BUFFALO vs. MIAMI
Buffalo is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Miami
Buffalo is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Miami is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games when playing Buffalo
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games

1:00 PM
CHICAGO vs. WASHINGTON
Chicago is 1-5-1 ATS in its last 7 games
Chicago is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 7 games
Washington is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games when playing Chicago

1:00 PM
NEW ENGLAND vs. NY JETS
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New England's last 5 games on the road
New England is 5-0 SU in their last 5 games when playing NY Jets
The total has gone OVER in 6 of the NY Jets last 8 games when playing at home against New England
NY Jets are 3-6 SU in their last 9 games

1:00 PM
DALLAS vs. PHILADELPHIA
Dallas is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Philadelphia
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Dallas's last 13 games on the road
Philadelphia is 4-14 SU in its last 18 games
Philadelphia is 5-12 ATS in its last 17 games

1:00 PM
ST. LOUIS vs. CAROLINA
The total has gone UNDER in 15 of St. Louis's last 22 games on the road
St. Louis is 5-15-1 SU in its last 21 games ,on the road
Carolina is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games at home
Carolina is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games at home

1:00 PM
SAN DIEGO vs. JACKSONVILLE
The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Diego's last 5 games when playing Jacksonville
The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Diego's last 7 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Jacksonville's last 5 games when playing San Diego
Jacksonville is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games

1:00 PM
TAMPA BAY vs. ATLANTA
Tampa Bay is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Tampa Bay is 2-8-1 ATS in its last 11 games
Atlanta is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay
Atlanta is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games

4:05 PM
SAN FRANCISCO vs. TENNESSEE
San Francisco is 7-3 SU in its last 10 games
The total has gone OVER in 10 of San Francisco's last 13 games
Tennessee is 6-0-1 ATS in its last 7 games when playing San Francisco
Tennessee is 5-1-1 ATS in its last 7 games

4:25 PM
HOUSTON vs. KANSAS CITY
Houston is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
Houston is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games
Kansas City is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
Kansas City is 5-11 SU in its last 16 games at home

4:25 PM
CLEVELAND vs. GREEN BAY
Cleveland is 8-17 SU in its last 25 games
Cleveland is 2-15 SU in its last 17 games on the road
Green Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 17 of Green Bay's last 25 games at home

4:25 PM
BALTIMORE vs. PITTSBURGH
Baltimore is 2-2-2 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
Baltimore is 7-18 SU in its last 25 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is 18-7 SU in its last 25 games when playing at home against Baltimore
Pittsburgh is 1-2-2 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Baltimore

8:30 PM
DENVER vs. INDIANAPOLIS
Denver is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Indianapolis
Denver is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Indianapolis's last 5 games when playing at home against Denver
Indianapolis is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games at home


Monday, October 21

8:40 PM
MINNESOTA vs. NY GIANTS
Minnesota is 4-1 SU in their last 5 games when playing on the road against NY Giants
Minnesota is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of the NY Giants last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the NY Giants last 6 games when playing Minnesota


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[Udog]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 7

Seahawks (5-1) @ Cardinals (3-3)—Home teams won last four series games; Seahawks won last meeting 58-0 at home (493-154 TY, +7 TOs), but they’ve lost six of last seven visits here, with four of six losses by 6 or less points. Seattle offense has been much better at home (10 TDs/34 drives) than on road (4 TDs/32 drives); they’re 11-39 on third down conversions on road, 14-39 at home. Hawks gave up a special teams TD in each of last two games. Cardinals are 2-0 at home, outscoring opponents 34-7 in second half of those games. Arizona gave up 149 rushing yards last week at Candlestick, first time this year; they’ve allowed more than 104; Seahawks have run ball for 175.2 yards/game the last five weeks. Home teams are 3-1 vs spread in NFC West games, 1-1 if an underdog. Seattle is playing its third dome game in last four weeks. Four of last five Arizona games stayed under the total; three of last four Seattle games went over.




NFL

Thursday, October 17

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Thursday Night Football betting: Seahawks at Cardinals
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Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals (+6.5, 40)

Much has been made of disparity in play by the Seattle Seahawks when they are at home versus on the road, and it can be best exemplified by their two matchups with the Arizona Cardinals last season. The Seahawks lost by four points at Arizona in the 2012 season opener, only to get revenge by mauling the Cardinals 58-0 at home three months later. Seattle is sitting atop the NFC West with a 5-1 record heading into a Thursday night showdown at division rival Arizona.

The Seahawks have won two of three away from home but the victory margin in the two victories came by a combined eight points. The Cardinals, meanwhile, have a short week to prepare for the back end of a brutal division daily-double after Sunday's 32-20 turnover-laden defeat in San Francisco. It marks the start of a critical three-game homestand for Arizona, although each contest is against a team that advanced to the playoffs last season.

TV: 8:25 p.m. ET, NFL Network.

LINE: Seattle opened as low as -4.5 and was bet up to as high as -7 before buyback dropped the line to -6.5. The total opened at 40 and moved to 40.5.

WEATHER: N/A

COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Seattle (-7.5) + Arizona (+3.0) + home field (-3.0) = Cardinals +7.5

ABOUT THE SEAHAWKS (5-1, 4-2 ATS): Seattle ran its home winning streak to 11 games with Sunday's 20-13 victory over Tennessee, but life on the road has been a different story. The Seahawks trailed in the fourth quarter in a season-opening 12-7 win at Carolina and needed a boneheaded interception by Houston quarterback Matt Schaub to prevail in overtime in Week 4 before squandering a fourth-quarter lead in a 34-28 loss at Indianapolis a week later. Quarterback Russell Wilson has played efficiently but is averaging only 209 yards passing, although he has the luxury of handing off to Marshawn Lynch, who is third in the league in rushing with 487 yards.

ABOUT THE CARDINALS (3-3, 4-2 ATS): Arizona rolled up 403 yards of offense against the 49ers but was unable to overcome four turnovers, including a pair of interceptions by Carson Palmer, who was also sacked for a safety. Rookie Andre Ellington is making a strong bid to supplant Rashard Mendenhall as the starting running back with seven carries for 56 yards and a touchdown and five receptions for 36 more on Sunday. The Cardinals had a major injury scare when defensive end Calais Campbell was carted off the field and hospitalized for possible neck and spine injuries, but he was back at team meetings on Monday.

TRENDS:

* Home team is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.
* Over is 8-1 in the last 9 meetings in Arizona.
* Seahawks are 1-6 ATS in their last seven meetings in Arizona.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Lynch ran for three touchdowns and Seattle forced eight turnovers while setting a franchise record for points in last season's 58-0 rout.

2. Cardinals WR Larry Fitzgerald had his first 100-yard day of the season with six catches for 117 yards and a TD despite a sore hamstring.

3. Arizona has won six of the last seven home matchups against the Seahawks.


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NFL

Thursday, October 17

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Tale of the tape: Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals
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The Seattle Seahawks and their vaunted defense travel to Arizona for this week's Thursday night matchup against the Cardinals.

Seattle (5-1) shares the top record in the NFC with the New Orleans Saints thanks to a defensive unit that has been among the stingiest in the league against the pass. That doesn't bode well for the Cardinals (3-3), who have had trouble generating any kind of offense so far this season.

Here's the breakdown in our betting tale of the tape:

Offense

Much has been made about how well Seattle prevents points, but the Seahawks have actually been adept at moving the ball, as well. Behind second-year quarterback Russell Wilson, Seattle ranks 10th in total yardage per game (372.7), thanks in large part to a rush attack that averages nearly 160 yards per game. Running back Marshawn Lynch has racked up five touchdowns in six games, while Wilson has added 50 carries for 294 yards to date.

Despite the addition of veteran quarterback Carson Palmer, the Arizona offense has been spinning its wheels all year. The Cardinals rank 26th in yards per game (322.3) - and like Seattle, the running game is the main reason for that. Arizona is gaining fewer than 86 yards per game on the ground, as Rashard Mendenhall (3.3 yards per carry) continues to struggle his way into a time share with the emerging Andre Ellington (7.0 ypc).

Edge: Seattle


Defense

The Seahawks are an elite NFL defense in every measurable category. They're allowing the second-fewest yards per game (290.2), and only the Houston Texans surrender fewer yards through the air on a weekly basis (188.3). Seattle has given up just five passing touchdowns while snagging nine interceptions. The run defense isn't nearly as strong, but still ranks 11th in yards allowed per contest (101.8) while limiting opposing teams to three rushing scores.

Arizona's defense has struggled against the pass through the first six games of the campaign, getting burned for 260 yards per game while surrendering 10 touchdowns. The Cardinals do have eight interceptions - tied for seventh-most in the NFL - and find themselves in the middle of the pack in completion percentage against (61). The run defense has been much better, allowing the fifth-fewest yards per game (90.7) on just 3.5 yards per carry.

Edge: Seattle


Special Teams

When it comes to kick-return defense, the Seahawks are a bit of a roller-coaster. They rank third-last in the NFL in kickoff return average allowed at 27.6 yards, but have limited opponents to a league-worst eight total yards on six punt returns. Seattle returners rank 15th in kickoff yardage (23.5) and fifth in punt yardage (11.8). Seahawks placekicker Steven Hauschka has connected on 14 of 15 field-goal attempts, including both kicks in last week's win over Tennessee.

The Cardinals' return game has been mostly terrible so far in 2013, ranked 22nd overall in kickoff return average (22.4) and tied for 23rd in punt return average (5.8). Arizona has been better in defending return attempts, surrendering the fifth-fewest yards per kickoff return (20.6) and ranking 17th in punt return yards against (8.3). Veteran placekicker Jay Feely has been his usual accurate self, converting nine of 10 field-goal opportunities to date.

Edge: Seahawks


Notable Quotable

"Those two guys are really athletic, flying-around type of guys. They're ball hawks. They have a knack for getting to the football. You have to always know where they are, but at the same time, not be afraid to attack them." - Seattle quarterback Russell Wilson on Cardinals defensive backs Tyrann Mathieu and Patrick Peterson

"I don't think it's really fair to the players, especially the veteran players. This is really, really hard on them. There are so many (times) over the course of the last 10 years I've seen guys that could not play on Thursday but could play on Sunday. And that's really hard on a football team." - Arizona head coach Bruce Arians on playing a Thursday night game


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[Udog]

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 7

Patriots (5-1) @ Jets (3-3)—Rex Ryan is 3-7 vs Belichick, but 0-5 since Jets won ’10 playoff game, with three of those five losses by 9+ points. Patriots won first meeting this year 13-10 in Week 2; they won 37-16/49-19 in last two visits here; they’re not same juggernaut they once were, with last three games coming down to red zone drive in last minute. Only once in six games have Patriots averaged more than 5.2 yards/pass attempt- LY, they had only one game all year under 5.5 ypa. Just one of five NE wins is by more than 7 points, but since ’04, they’re 16-5-2 as a divisional road favorite. Jets are 4-3 as home dogs under Ryan; they are -10 in turnovers (no takeaways) in their three losses, -1 (three takeaways) in three wins- they’re 2-1 at home this season, losing to Steelers last week. Divisional home underdogs are 5-2 vs spread this season. Four of six NE games stayed under the total; three of last four Jet games went over.

Chargers (3-3) @ Jaguars (0-6)—Huge trap game for San Diego, with cross-country flight on short week after upset win on Monday Night Football; this is their 4th road game in last six weeks and a pre-bye game (2-3 in pre-bye games last five years)- they’re 7-13 vs spread in last 20 games as a road favorite, 0-1 this year, and 1-7-1 vs spread in game following their last nine wins. Chargers are 1-2 on road, with only win by FG at Philly- they didn’t lead any of the three games at half (outscored 37-20). Jaguars are so bad they lost by 16 last week at Denver but easily covered spread; they’re 1-5 vs spread, 0-2 at home, outscored 65-5 in home losses to Chiefs (28-2), Colts (37-3) (no TDs/25 drives at home, 13 3/outs). AFC West non-divisional favorites are 7-3 vs spread, 3-1 on road; AFC South non-divisional underdogs are 5-7 vs spread, 1-3 at home. Three of last four Jax games went over total; over is 3-2-1 in San Diego games.

Texans (2-4) @ Chiefs (6-0)—Underrated KC defense has allowed 10 ppg in three home games (three TDs on 37 drives). Houston gives #3 QB Keenum his first career start; seeing as Texans have thrown pick-6 in last five games (Yates did last week), he can't do much worse. Houston has been outscored 67-10 in second half of last four games, all losses. 6-0 Chiefs have three defensive TDs, two on special teams in first six games; they’re 2-1 as home favorite this year, making them 5-14-1 in last 20 such games. AFC West non-divisional favorites are 7-3 vs spread, 4-2 at home. AFC South non-divisional dogs are 5-8 vs spread, 4-4 on road. Non-divisional home favorites of 4+ points are 14-9 vs spread. Texans are 3-2 in this series, winning 24-21 in only visit here in ’04, but they’re mess now and wouldn’t be surprised if coaching change was made Monday, since Houston has Week 8 bye. Five of six KC games stayed under total.

Bengals (4-2) @ Lions (4-2)— Cincinnati lost Super Bowl XVI (Jan ’82) in Silverdome, but otherwise is 4-1 in Motor City, winning last three visits here by 6-4-24 points; they’ve won four in row and seven of last eight series games, with average total in last four, 48.5. Detroit scored 34-40 points in winning both home games, scoring seven TDs on 26 drives, with eight takeaways (+3) in two games (they’ve got five takeaways (+2) in four road games)- they’re 10-6 vs spread in last 16 games as a home favorite. Cincy is 1-2 on road, with only win OT escape in Buffalo vs backup QB making his 2nd career start; they’re 5-2-1 in last eight games as a road underdog, 17-8 vs spread in game following their last 25 wins. AFC North non-divisional underdogs are 5-3-1 vs spread, 2-1-1 on road. NFC North non-divisional favorites are 3-7-1 vs spread, 1-4-1 at home. AFC teams are 19-13 SU vs NFC teams so far this season.

Bills (2-4) @ Dolphins (3-2)—Not sure which banged-up Buffalo QB gets nod here; they signed Matt Flynn as a backup Monday. Miami is 7-3 in last 10 series games, with six of seven wins by 7+ points. Buffalo lost four of last five visits here, with losses by 9-28-27-14 points. Bills are 4-12-1 in last 17 games as road underdogs, 0-2 this year, losing 27-20 (+2.5) at Jets, 37-24 (+4.5) at Browns, only two games they’ve had with minus turnover ratios (-1 in both; +5 in four home games). For team with young QBs, Bills stay strong, scoring 14+ second half points in second half four of last five games. Well-coached Miami won Philbin’s first post-bye game 30-9 LY, are 3-2 in last five; Dolphins split first two home games, which were decided by total of 7 points, but are dismal 7-18 in last 25 games as a home favorite (3-3 under Philbin). NFL-wide, divisional home favorites are 13-5 vs spread so far this season. Last four Miami games, four of last five Buffalo games went over the total.

Bears (4-2) @ Redskins (1-4)—Key in Chicago games has been field position; Bears were +12 or better in average field position in their four wins, -15/-18 in two losses. Redskin special teams were putrid Sunday, giving up 85-yard PR for TD and 90-yard KO return, only third time ever same guy did those things in same game. Washington won last four series games, with only one of four series wins by more than three points; average total in those games was 27.5. Bears allowed 21+ points in all six games, with five of them going over total- they’ve forced 3+ turnovers in five of six games (+7). Redskins allowed 30 ppg in losing first two home games, allowing seven TDs on 25 drives, with only five 3/outs. Griffin isn’t as mobile as he was before his injury, and mobility is big part of his game; when they lost in Dallas last week despite Murray/Ware not playing in second half, it was major red flag for the Skins. Bears have lost six of last seven visits here, with last win in ’03.

Cowboys (3-3) @ Eagles (3-3)—Dallas scored 31+ points in winning three of first four home games, but only 16-21 in losing first two on road, by 1 at Arrowhead, 9 at San Diego. Kiffin’s defense has been torched by Rivers and both Manning brothers, will be without pass rusher Ware, and are hard pressed to keep explosive Eagles under wraps. Looks like Foles gets nod under center for Iggles in battle for first in NFC East; Vick’s hamstring needs another week to heal, but if Foles plays he did last week (22-31/287) Vick might get a lot of Sundays off. Philly scored 33-36 points in winning its first two division games, with 403 rushing yards and seven TDs on 26 drives, with only four 3/outs, but they’re 0-2 at home, giving up 33-26 points. Home side lost four of last six in this rivalry; Cowboys won three of last four visits here, but again without Ware/Murray here, this figures to be high scoring and fun to watch. Five of six Eagle games went over the total.

Rams (3-3) @ Panthers (2-3)—Carolina continues to have dominant defense, not allowing a first half TD in five games, outscoring opponents 50-12 before halftime; they’ve allowed one TD on 19 drives in two home games, blanking Giants 38-0, losing 12-7 to Seattle- in their two wins, they outscored opponents 42-7 after halftime, but in their losses, they’ve been outscored 49-16. Rams won last two games after 1-3 start, beating hapless Jags and crumbling Texans, with eight takeaways (+7) in two games, after having only five (-1) in first four games- they’ve run ball better since putting Stacy at RB, with 242 rushing yards in last two games. Under Fisher, Rams are 8-3 as road underdogs, 1-2 this year (lost 31-24 at Atlanta, 31-7 at Dallas). NFC West non-divisional underdogs are 5-3 vs spread, 3-3 on road; NFC South non-divisional home favorites are 3-2. Five of six St Louis games went over the total.

Buccaneers (0-5) @ Falcons (1-4)—Tampa Bay lost 10 of last 11 games as Schiano seems to be walking plank, but lone win was in season finale here LY; winless Bucs have three TDs on 34 drives in last three games, two TDs on 22 road drives (lost 18-17 at Jets, 23-3 at NE)- switching to rookie QB while team was winless seems stupid, but things got personal between QB/coach; Bucs are 5-3 as road dogs under Schiano, but have been outscored 48-13 in second half of games this year. Atlanta is off bye after dismal start where they had last-minute/red zone failures in last minute of all four losses; they’ve allowed 23+ points in all five games but have won last four post-bye games, and were underdog in three of them. Falcons are 1-2 as home favorites this year, are now 22-13 in that role under Smith. but they’ve also they’re NFL-wide, divisional home favorites are 13-5 vs spread this season. Oddity: Bucs have been even in turnovers in all five games.

49ers (4-2) @ Titans (3-3)—Niners scored 35-34-32 points in winning last three games, scoring 11 TDs on 39 drives while running ball for 181.7 ypg; favorites covered both their road games, a 35-11 (-3) win in St Louis, a 29-3 (+3) loss in Seattle. SF is 6-4 as a road favorite under Harbaugh. Titans allowed 17 or less points in their three wins (2 TDs on 33 drives), 25.3 ppg in losses (8 TDs/35 drives); they’ve given up 147.7 rushing yards/game in their losses, 75 ypg in wins. Titans are 3-5 as home dog under Munchak; they’ve scored 17-13 points in losing both Fitzpatrick starts, since Locker got hurt, converting just 8-26 (30.8%) of third down plays (26-63 41.3% in Locker’s starts). NFC West non-divisional favorites are 6-3 vs spread, 2-1 on road; AFC South underdogs are 5-7, 1-3 at home. Tennessee is 7-5 in series, winning 33-22/34-27 in last two meetings; 49ers’ 33-22 loss in ’05 is their only previous visit here.

Browns (3-3) @ Packers (3-2)—Cleveland is 3-3; 0-3 when Weeden starts, 3-0 when Hoyer started, but they’ve led all six games at halftime; they’ve been outscored 55-3 in second half of Weeden’s three starts, all losses (they had 37-27 edge in Hoyer’s starts). Since 2010, Browns are 10-12-1 as road underdogs, 1-1 this year, losing 14-6 (+6) at Ravens, winning 31-27 (+6.5) at Vikings. Green Bay allowed 34 points in both losses this year, at 49ers/Bengals; they’re 8-5 in last 13 games as home favorite, 2-0 this year, beating Redskins 38-20 (-7), Lions 22-9 (-6). Since its bye, Green Bay has allowed 13 ppg in winning both games, with five sacks in each game. Pack has kicked a FG on each of five red zone drives, as injuries to WRs have hurt the offense. GB has become more of running team, rushing ball for 160.3 ypg over last four games. Pack won two of three meetings, with road team winning twice; Pack won last meeting 31-3 on Lake Erie.

Ravens (3-3) @ Steelers (1-4)—Baltimore’s last three games were decided by total of eight points; underdogs covered their last four games. Ravens won three of last four games in weird series where seven of last nine meetings were won by exactly three points. Baltimore won 23-20/13-10 in last two visits here- they’re 1-2 on road this season, getting drilled in Denver, splitting pair of 3-point decisions in Miami/Buffalo. Steelers got first two takeaways of season (-9) in 19-6 win at Swamp last week; they’re 0-2 at home this year, losing 16-9 (-7) to Titans, 40-34 to Bears. Pitt has yet to run ball for more than 80 yards in any game, but they’re 14 of last 31 (45.2%) on third down in last two games, after being 10-36 (27.8%) in first three games. Ravens outscored last five opponents 77-26 in second half. Four of last five Raven games stayed under the total. NFL-wide, divisional home favorites of less than four points are 5-2 vs spread.

Broncos (6-0) @ Colts (4-2)—Peyton Manning returns to Indy, while Colt owner Irsay tries to deflect pressure off his young QB Luck by criticizing #18; good theater. Denver is on a historic pace, scoring 44.2 ppg- they won 35-19 last week and people acted like they had a bad game; they’ve scored 46 ppg in two high profile road games, at Giants/Cowboys, scoring 11 TDs on 23 drives, with six 3/outs. Broncos are converting 57.5% of third down plays, part of why they’ve won field position in every game; now they get defensive ace Miller back, which should only help bolster their defense. Colts had 3-game win streak snapped in San Diego Monday; they’ve given up 365 rushing yards in last two games but are 2-1 at home, with all three games decided by six or less points- they allowed 17 or less points in three of their four wins, scored only two TDs on 20 drives in their losses. All six Bronco games went over the total.

Vikings (1-4) @ Giants (0-6)—Josh Freeman becomes third QB to start for Vikings in last four games, and first QB since Kyle Orton in 2011 to start for two different teams in same season; Minnesota allowed 31+ points in all its losses, 27 in its win (over 1-4 Steelers)- they got crushed at home by Carolina last week, but now at least players know Freeman is going to start until he plays himself out of the job. How are the Giants favored over anyone? Well, teams coming off Thursday games are 8-2 vs spread this season, so there’s that, but not much else. Big Blue allowed 41-36 points in losing its two home games- they allowed 37 ppg in losing two games they were favored to win. Bucs scored three TDs on 32 drives in three games Freeman started for them, first of which was in season opener in this stadium vs Jets. All five Minnesota games and four of six Giant games have gone over the total. Freeman already played in this stadium for Bucs in this season's opener, when Tampa Bay lost to the Jets.

[Udog]

NFL Betting Week 7 Preview Hot bets and moving odds

All odds current as of noon ET, Oct. 17

Peyton’s place

At some point, Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos may not be the top story of the week in the NFL – just don’t count on that happening until they have their bye in Week 9. Right now, Manning is getting ready to visit the Colts at Lucas Oil Stadium for the first time as a Bronco in easily the most anticipated matchup of the week. Sports Interaction opened Denver as a 6-point road favorite, but that line has moved to -7 already with 88 percent of the action coming in on the Broncos. If you missed taking Denver at less than a touchdown, chances are it’s way too late to get that number now.

Over and out

Remember when seeing a 50-point total on the board actually caught your eye? This week we have three more totals above 50 points and a pile of matchups between teams pounding the over. The total for Denver-Indy is this week’s biggest number at 56.5, which isn’t shocking since Denver hasn’t played under yet this season. Dallas visits Philadelphia and Chip Kelly’s up-tempo attack and that total opened at 56.5 before dropping to 54.5. Chicago, which has played over in five of six games, visits Washington with a 50.5 over/under on the board.

Movers and shakers

The Arizona Cardinals have a lot to prove in this week’s Thursday Night Football matchup with the Seahawks. The last time these two teams hooked up, the Seahawks rubbed it in with a 58-0 win in Seattle. Now the Cardinals, who opened at +6, are looking for revenge. This line jumped to +7 for a while, dropped to +6 and is currently holding at +6.5.

The line for Chicago’s date with Washington should be on the top of your watch list this week. The Redskins opened as 1.5-point favorites and actually jumped to -2 not long after. Since then, the line is coming the other way. The game is currently at a pick ‘em and may bounce around for a while.

Hot and not

The Seahawks are seeing 77 percent of Sports Interaction’s bets at -6.5.

New England bettors are all over the Pats in their second meeting with the Jets this season. With New England set as a 4.5-point road favorite, 88 percent of our action is on the Pats.

Sports Interaction bettors have no faith left in the 0-6 Houston Texans anymore. Only 18 percent of our bets are coming in on Houston as the Texans visit the Chiefs as 6.5-point underdogs.

[Udog]

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 7

Each week, we break down some of the underlying mismatches in the NFL, hoping to give you an inside edge when handicapping the schedule. Here are four of the biggest betting mismatches from Week 7:

Chicago Bears at Washington Redskins (-1, 50)

Bears’ fast first quarters vs. Redskins’ slow starts

The Redskins’ 1-4 start to the season can be blamed on a lot of things: RG3’s wonky knee, a porous defense, Dan Snyder’s inability to feel feelings. But the finger should be aimed strictly at Washington’s flat starts. The Skins are constantly giving opponents a head start, giving up an NFL-worst 10 points in the first quarter this season. And they’re last in the league in first-half points allowed as well, spotting foes 19 points in the first 30 minutes of action.

Chicago hasn’t been that great at slowing down teams in the first two frames – giving up an average of 18.2 first-half points – but is at least offsetting that by scoring a league-high average of eight points in the first quarter and sitting behind only Denver in terms of first-half production, scoring 17 points per first half this year. Both the Redskins and Bears have tightened up on defense in the last two quarters, so this one could be decided by halftime.

Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5, 54.5)

Cowboys’ damaged defensive line vs. Eagles’ high-octane offense

The Cowboys may have won the game versus Washington last Sunday night, but Dallas suffered big losses on the defensive line, a spot that was already thin heading into Week 6. The Cowboys were without DEs DeMarcus Ware and George Selvie at practice this week and DT Jason Hatcher was limited, adding to the many MIA members of the Big D defensive line. The Cowboys subs stood tall against the Redskins but face a different pace in the Eagles’ attack this weekend.

Philadelphia’s non-stop offense could have an already depleted Dallas depth chart running on empty early in Lincoln Financial Field Sunday. The Eagles not only run one of the fastest paces in the NFL under new head coach Chip Kelly, but are healthy on the offensive line – a perk they didn’t have against Dallas last season. The Eagles finally seem comfortable in their new system, totaling 67 points in wins the past two weeks.

Cleveland Browns at Green Bay Packers (-10, 46.5)

Browns’ rotten run defense vs. Packers’ default rushing attack

The Browns have been a surprise this season, entering Week 7 with a 3-3 mark. The defense is getting the pat on the back – ranked seventh in yards against – but those stats are a bit misleading heading into this Sunday’s game in Green Bay. Cleveland has been beat up on the ground this year, especially in the last two games. The Browns gave up 118 yards to Detroit last week and 155 yards in a win over Buffalo two weeks ago. Cleveland, which sits seventh in run defense, has allowed the most rushing touchdowns in the NFL, watching opponents rumble into the end zone eight times.

The Packers’ potent air attack had its wings clipped with injuries to WR James Jones and Randall Cobb last Sunday. Green Bay is slowly starting to lean more and more on its ground game, with rookie RB Eddie Lacy rushing for 219 yards in his last two games since returning from a concussion. In fact, over the last three weeks, only two NFL teams have run for more yards per game than the Cheese Heads, who average 167.3 pick-ups on the ground during that span. With the passing game missing some key weapons, expect even more handoffs against a fragile Browns defense.

Denver Broncos at Indianapolis Colts (+6.5, 55.5)

Broncos’ broken offensive line vs. Colts’ LB Robert Mathis

The Broncos had issues on the offensive line before the season even started. Center Dan Koppen was lost for the year, then tackle Ryan Clady went down with a foot injury. Denver was doing OK patching up those holes before T Orlando Franklin left Week 6 with multiple injuries. That leaves the Broncos’ pass protection very thin against a jacked-up Colts defense, looking to spoil Peyton Manning’s Indy homecoming.

The one player looking to do the most damage versus Denver is Manning’s former teammate, LB Robert Mathis. The NFL sack leader – with 9.5 QB kills – has watched No. 18 operate plenty of times from the sideline. Manning isn’t the most mobile QB in the league, in fact he’s probably the least. Indianapolis has done a good job getting to opposing passers and could exploit a thin Broncos offensive line Sunday night.

[Udog]

NFL betting: Case Keenum to start at QB for Texans

Houston Texans head coach Gary Kubiak has announced that Case Keenum will be the starting quarterback against the Kansas City Chiefs Sunday.

The Texans are mired in a four-game losing streak and own an NFL-worst 0-6 ATS record.

The undrafted 25-year-old spent last season in the Texans practice squad and began the 2013 campaign as the team's third-string quarterback.

Starting QB Matt Schaub is nursing a leg injury and has been ruled out.

T.J. Yates was unimpressive in relief duty one week ago as the Texans were thumped by the St. Louis Rams 38-13. Yates was 12-of-17 for 98 yards and a pair of interceptions.

The Houston Texans face the Kansas City Chiefs at Arrowhead Stadium in Week 7. The Chiefs are currently 6.5-point favorites.

[Udog]

NFL

Sunday, October 20

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Sunday's NFL Week 7 betting cheat sheet: Early action
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Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Atlanta Falcons (-7, 43)

The Buccaneers are one of three remaining winless squads and their offensive line is in shambles, including the indefinite loss of Pro Bowl guard Carl Nicks after he underwent foot surgery Tuesday due to a recurrence of a MRSA infection. Rookie quarterback Mike Glennon, making his third start (first on the road) for Tampa Bay, has three touchdowns and three interceptions.

The Falcons are among the most disappointing clubs in the NFL and hope to start a turnaround when they host the struggling Buccaneers on Sunday. Billed as a Super Bowl contender, the Falcons have lost three straight contests and four of five and will be without standout receiver Julio Jones (foot) for the remainder of the season.

LINE: The Falcons opened as 7-point home faves. The total opened at 41.5 and is up to 43.
WEATHER: N/A
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Tampa Bay (+6.5) - Atlanta (+1.0) + home field (-3) = Falcons -8.5
TRENDS:

* Under is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings.
* Buccaneers are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 meetings.
* Falcons are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games overall.

Chicago Bears at Washington Redskins (+1, 49.5)

The Bears snapped a two-game slide with a 27-21 victory over the New York Giants on Oct. 10 and Jay Cutler posted his second straight game without an interception. Cutler, who played under Washington coach Mike Shanahan when the two were together with the Denver Broncos, was picked off four times by Redskins cornerback DeAngelo Hall the last time the Bears faced Washington in 2010.

The Redskins are converting only half of their trips into the red zone into touchdowns and Robert Griffin III is just 11-for-23 passing inside the 20. Washington is tied for 23rd in the league in takeaways defensively and Hall, whose four INTs against Cutler in the last meeting matched an NFL record, has only one pick in 2013.

LINE: The Redskins opened as 1-point home faves and are now +1.The total opened at 50.5 and is down a full point.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-60s with clear skies. Wind will blow toward the E endzone at 7 mph.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Chicago (-1.5) + Washington (+2.5) + home field (-3.0) = Redskins +1
TRENDS:

* Road team is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings.
* Bears are 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Redskins are 0-5 ATS in their last five vs. NFC.

Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5, 54.5)

Tony Romo’s interceptions are always put under the microscope, but the Dallas quarterback has 14 touchdown passes against only three INTs this season. Jason Witten could be in for a big game, as the Philadelphia defense has struggled against tight ends this season and Witten has given the Eagles fits throughout his career.

The Eagles, who lead the NFL with 178.5 rushing yards per game, gave the ball to LeSean McCoy 25 times last weekend, resulting in a 116-yard performance for the league’s leading rusher. McCoy has 630 rushing yards and his stellar season has somewhat overshadowed teammate DeSean Jackson, who is second in the NFL with 589 receiving yards under first-year coach Chip Kelly. That said, nobody on the Eagles overshadows Jason Peters – literally – but the massive offensive tackle could miss Sunday’s game with a shoulder injury.

LINE: The Eagles opened as 3-point faves and are now -2.5. The total opened at 56.5 and is down to 54.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-60s with clear skies in Philly. Wind will blow across the field at 12 mph.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Dallas (-3.5) + Philadelphia (0.0) + home field (-3.0) = Eagles +0.5
TRENDS:

* Road team is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Cowboys are 4-10 ATS in their last 14 vs. NFC East.
* Over is 7-1 in Eagles last eight home games.

New England Patriots at New York Jets (+3.5, 44)

The Patriots rebounded from their lone loss with a dramatic victory last week, getting a touchdown pass from Tom Brady with five seconds to play to overcome then-unbeaten New Orleans. The victory came at a high price, however, as the Patriots lost linebacker and leading tackler Jerod Mayo for the season with a torn pectoral muscle and saw wide receiver Danny Amendola and cornerback Aqib Talib also exit with injuries. Neither player is expected to be available this week.

The New York Jets know the road to the AFC East title goes through New England and they have a chance to take a step in that direction when they host the divison-leading Patriots on Sunday. The Jets sit two games behind the Patriots and have lost the last six meetings, including a three-point loss at New England in Week 2. Rookie Geno Smith and New York have been unable to put together back-to-back wins and were throttled in a 19-6 home loss to Pittsburgh last week.

LINE: The Pats opened as 3.5-point road faves. The total opened at 43 and is currently 44.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-50s with clear skies. Wind will blow across the field at 13 mph.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: New England (-6.0) + New York (+4.0) + home field (-3.0) = Jets +7
TRENDS:

* Over is 7-1-1 in the last nine meetings.
* Patriots are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 meetings in New York.
* Over is 6-1 in Jets last seven games in Week 7.

Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins (-9.5, 43)

The Bills' 29th-ranked passing offense (213.5) would receive a jolt with the return of Stevie Johnson, who is in line to play after his ailing back - and a death in the family - reduced him to the role of a spectator last week.

Miami's less-than-stout offensive line has been a source of contention, but coach Joe Philbin reiterated the familiar refrain of "We believe in the guys we have." Lamar Miller, who was held to just 15 yards in a 26-23 loss to the Ravens, leads a porous ground attack (69.6 yards) that ranks 28th in the league.

LINE: Miami opened as a 9.5-point home fave. The total opened 43.5 and is down to 43.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-80s with a 20 percent chance of rain.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Buffalo (+6.0) - Miami (+0.5) + home field (-3.0) = Dolphins -8.5
TRENDS:

* Bills are 3-7 ATS in their last 10 meetings.
* Favorite is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.
* Under is 5-1-1 in the last seven meetings in Miami.

St. Louis Rams at Carolina Panthers (-7, 42.5)

St. Louis is finally achieving balance on offense with rookie Zac Stacy injecting some life into the run game, which has taken some pressure off Bradford. The Rams would do well to get off to a quick start and force the Panthers to the air, because St. Louis has struggled against the run, ranking 30th in the league at 130.5 rushing yards allowed per game.

Carolina has been wildly inconsistent but has shown signs of dominance, albeit against lower-tier teams. The defense has been particularly strong the past three games, allowing an average of 230 total yards over that stretch.

LINE: Carolina opened as a 6-point fave and is now -7. The total opened at 42 and is up to 42.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-60s with sunny skies. Wind will blow across the field at 5 mph.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: St. Louis (+4.5) - Carolina (+1.0) + home field (-3.0) = Panthers -6.5
TRENDS:

* Rams are 1-5 ATS in their last six meetings.
* Under is 11-3 in Panthers last 14 games in Week 7.
* Rams are 7-2 ATS in their last nine road games.

Cincinnati Bengals at Detroit Lions (-1, 46.5)

Cincinnati earned its first road win of the season at Buffalo, but it came a lot harder than expected after the Bengals blew a 14-point lead in the fourth quarter. QB Andy Dalton had come under fire after a string of uninspiring performances, but matched his number of touchdown passes from his previous four games in the win.

With top receiver Calvin Johnson slowed by a sore knee, Matthew Stafford found a new weapon in undrafted rookie Joseph Fauria, who became the first tight end in team history to catch three touchdown passes in a game. Linebacker DeAndre Levy, who is tied for the NFL lead with four interceptions, has been the biggest contributor to the turnover-focused defense.

LINE: The Lions opened as 1-point home faves. The total opened at 47 and is down half a point.
WEATHER: N/A
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Cincinnati (-2.0) - Detroit (-1.0) + home field (-3.0) = Lions -2
TRENDS:

* Bengals are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four road games.
* Over is 5-1 in Lions last six home games.
* Lions are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall.

San Diego Chargers at Jacksonville Jaguars (+9.5, 45.5)

San Diego has won its last two meetings with Jacksonville by a combined 76-27 score. QB Philip Rivers quietly has produced this season as he is tied for second in the league with 14 touchdown passes and third with 1,847 yards.

Jacksonville scored a moral victory last week as it covered the enormous 27-point spread in a 35-19 road loss to the undefeated Denver Broncos. Still, the Jaguars became the first team since the 1984 Houston Oilers to lose each of their first six games by 10 or more points.

LINE: The Chargers opened as 7-point road faves and are now -9.5. The total opened at 45 is up to 45.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-70s with an 18 percent chance of rain. Wind will blow toward the S endzone at 9 mph.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: San Diego (0.0) + Jacksonville (+9.0) + home field (-3.0) = Jacksonville +6
TRENDS:

* Over is 4-0-1 in the last five meetings.
* Chargers are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six road games.
* Jaguars are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 home games.


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[Udog]

NFL

Sunday, October 20

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Sunday's NFL Week 7 betting cheat sheet: Late action
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San Francisco 49ers at Tennessee Titans (+3, 41)

Colin Kaepernick threw a total of four interceptions and no TDs in losses to Seattle and Indianapolis but has broken loose as San Francisco has outscored its opponents 101-34 over the past three games. In particular, he has clicked with tight end Vernon Davis, who had a career-high 180 yards receiving and two TDs last week in a 32-20 win over Arizona.

Tennessee did not turn the ball over during a 3-1 start but gave the ball away a combined five times in losses to Kansas City and Seattle. Ryan Fitzpatrick has been the main culprit, throwing four interceptions and just one TD in his two starts. Running back Chris Johnson hasn't done much to alleviate the pressure, rushing for just 50 yards total over the two games.

LINE: The 49ers opened as 4-point road faves and are now -3. The total opened at 38.5 and is up to 41.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-60s with clear skies.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: San Francisco (-5.0) + Tennessee (+1.0) + home field (-3.0) = Titans +3
TRENDS:

* 49ers are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games in October.
* Over is 5-0 in Titans last five games in Week 7.
* Titans are 1-4-1 ATS in their last six games following a ATS win.

Cleveland Browns at Green Bay Packers (-10, 45.5)

After losing spark plug Brian Hoyer to a season-ending knee injury a couple of weeks ago the Browns are back to starting Brandon Weeden under center. Although the second-year pro threw for 292 yards and two touchdowns last week against Detroit, Cleveland fell to 6-13 in Weeden's starts. The Browns are 1-1 on the road this season and have gone 1-7 away from home the past two seasons.

Green Bay lost Randall Cobb, the team's top receiver, for at least eight weeks with a broken leg and is holding out hope that James Jones can return from a knee injury for Sunday's game. The Packers opted against trying to lure Donald Driver out of retirement and will rely more on its improved running game with emerging Eddie Lacy, who ran for 120 yards against the Ravens last week.

LINE: The Packers opened as 11-point faves and are now -10. The total opened at 45.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-40s with a 58 percent chance of rain. Wind will blow toward the N endzone at 8 mph.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Cleveland (+3.0) + Green Bay (-5.0) + home field (-3.0) = Packers -11
TRENDS:

* Browns are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games following a ATS loss.
* Under is 5-2 in Browns last seven road games.
* Packers are 5-1 ATS in their last six games in Week 7.

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (-1, 41)

Joe Flacco was turnover-prone through the first four games, including a disastrous five-interception performance at Buffalo, but did not have a pick in the 19-17 home loss to the Green Bay Packers last week. Flacco threw for 342 yards in that contest but Baltimore managed only 47 yards on 22 carries and is 27th in the NFL in rushing average at 72.7 yards.

Pittsburgh coach Mike Tomlin banned games from the locker room after the 0-4 start and put an end to somersaults in the end zone after the Week 5 victory. The new, stricter Tomlin is a result of the team’s worst start in decades - something that could have more to do more with the Steelers’ average of 61 rushing yards and 114.8 rushing yards allowed than its joy of locker room entertainment.

LINE: The Steelers opened -1. The total opened at 40 and is up to 41.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the mid-50s and wind will blow across Heinz Field at 12 mph.
COVES POWER RANKINGS: Baltimore (0.0) - Pittsburgh (+3.5) + home field (-3.0) = Steelers +0.5
TRENDS:

* Ravens are 1-5 ATS in their last six games in Week 7.
* Over is 7-2-1 in the last 10 meetings in Pittsburgh.
* Steelers are 3-11 ATS in their last 14 games following a ATS win.

Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5, 38.5)

Houston has allowed 72 points over the past two games, thanks in large part to four turnovers in each. The defense remains the team's strength, leading the league in total defense and passing yards.

Kansas City's remarkable turnover can't be pinned to one thing - the Chiefs are better in every phase. The offense hasn't been flashy, but the Chiefs have scored 24 or more points in five of six games, and Kansas City leads the league in scoring defense (10.8 points) and ranks fifth in total defense.

LINE: The Chiefs opened as 4.5-point faves and are now -6.5. The total opened at 40 and is down to 38.5.
WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the high-70s with wind blowing across the field at 8 mph.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Houston (+4.0) + Kansas City (-3.5) + home field (-3.0) = Chiefs -10.5
TRENDS:

* Road team is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Texans are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games overall.
* Under is 20-6 in Chiefs last 26 home games.

Denver Broncos at Indianapolis Colts (+6, 57)

Peyton Manning, who played 14 seasons with the Colts and led the franchise to two Super Bowls (winning one), tops the league with 2,179 yards and 22 touchdowns - the most by any player in the opening six games. He has weapons all over in the field in star wideouts Wes Welker (eight touchdowns), Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker, not to mention tight end Julius Thomas (seven TDs) and running back Knowshon Moreno, who ran for three scores last week.

Andrew Luck and AFC South-leading Indianapolis are coming off their worst performance, managing only three field goals in a 19-9 loss at San Diego as the Chargers held the ball for over 38 minutes. Luck is 15-7 as a starter and has directed nine comebacks in the fourth quarter and overtime, the most by any player in his first 22 games.

LINE: The Broncos opened as 5.5-point faves and are now -6. The total opened at 56.5 and is now 57.
WEATHER: N/A
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Denver (-8.5) - Indianapolis (-2.5) + home field (-3.0) = Colts +3
TRENDS:

* Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings in Indianapolis.
* Broncos are 0-5 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Colts are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a S.U. loss.


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[Udog]

NFL

Sunday, October 20

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NFL betting weather report: Sunday's forecasts
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Chicago Bears at Washington Redskins (+1, 49.5)
Temperatures will be in the low-60s with clear skies. Wind will blow toward the E endzone at 7 mph.


Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5, 54.5)
Temperatures will be in the low-60s with clear skies in Philly. Wind will blow across the field at 12 mph.


New England Patriots at New York Jets (+3.5, 44)
Temperatures will be in the high-50s with clear skies. Wind will blow across the field at 13 mph.


Buffalo Bills at Miami Dolphins (-9.5, 43)
Temperatures will be in the high-80s with a 20 percent chance of rain.


St. Louis Rams at Carolina Panthers (-7, 42.5)
Temperatures will be in the mid-60s with sunny skies. Wind will blow across the field at 5 mph.


San Diego Chargers at Jacksonville Jaguars (+9.5, 45.5)
Temperatures will be in the high-70s with an 18 percent chance of rain. Wind will blow toward the S endzone at 9 mph.


San Francisco 49ers at Tennessee Titans (+3, 41)
Temperatures will be in the low-60s with clear skies.


Cleveland Browns at Green Bay Packers (-10, 45.5)
Temperatures will be in the high-40s with a 58 percent chance of rain. Wind will blow toward the N endzone at 8 mph.


Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (-1, 41)
Temperatures will be in the mid-50s and wind will blow across Heinz Field at 12 mph.


Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5, 38.5)
Temperatures will be in the high-70s with wind blowing across the field at 8 mph.


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