NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 5 (Thursday, October 3 - Monday, October 7)

[Udog]

NFL

Sunday, October 6

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Broncos at Cowboys: What bettors need to know
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Denver Broncos at Dallas Cowboys (+7.5, 56)

The Denver Broncos are setting a historic offensive pace and quarterback Peyton Manning appears to be three steps ahead of every defense he faces. The Dallas Cowboys, who host Manning and the Broncos on Sunday, are averaging 33.5 points in two home wins and could need at least that much to stay close. Manning has thrown 16 touchdowns and no interceptions through four games and is on pace to shatter the single-season TD mark.

Denver is putting up 44.8 points and nearly 500 yards of offense and is coming off a 52-20 drubbing of the Philadelphia Eagles. That offense is masking some potential issues on the other side of the ball, where the Broncos rank in the bottom third of the league in total defense. The Cowboys are not much better on defense and gave up 506 yards while squandering a lead in a 31-20 loss at San Diego last week.

TV: 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS.
LINE: The Broncos opened as 5-point road faves and are now -7.5. The total is 56.
WEATHER: N/A

ABOUT THE BRONCOS (4-0): Manning formed a quick connection with Wes Welker and has weapons spread across the field in wide receivers Demaryius Thomas and Eric Decker and tight end Julius Thomas. That passing attack opens up the ground game for a trio of backs in Knowshon Moreno, Montee Ball and Ronnie Hillman. Denver still thinks it can get better on the offensive side of the ball and is due for an upgrade on the defensive side, where linebacker Von Miller has yet to play while sitting out a six-game suspension and cornerback Champ Bailey (foot) is still waiting to make his season debut.

ABOUT THE COWBOYS (2-2): Dallas is down two defensive starters in linebacker Justin Durant (groin) and defensive end George Selvie (concussion), who were both missing from practice on Thursday and are uncertain for Sunday’s game. That puts even more pressure on Tony Romo and the offense to put up points, which they failed to do while being shut out in the second half of last week’s loss. Romo is completing 72.4 percent of his passes with eight touchdowns and one interception but could be missing one of his weapons with wideout Miles Austin (hamstring) questionable.

TRENDS:

* Broncos are 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
* Over is 5-1 in Cowboys last six home games.
* Broncos are 6-1 ATS in their last seven road games.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. The Broncos have won 15 consecutive regular-season games, each by seven points or more.

2. Romo is 4-1 with 14 TD passes and one INT in his last five home games.

3. Denver LB Danny Trevathon was carted off the field at practice on Wednesday with a knee injury but came through an MRI exam clean and could make Sunday‘s game.


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[Udog]

NFL

Sunday, October 6

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Lions at Packers: What bettors need to know
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Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers (-7, 53.5)

The well-rested Green Bay Packers attempt to continue their dominance of the Detroit Lions when the NFC North rivals meet at Lambeau Field on Sunday. Green Bay, which is coming off its bye week, has won 22 consecutive home meetings with Detroit and 14 of the last 15 overall matchups. The Lions have not been victorious in Green Bay since Dec. 15, 1991.

The Packers have had 100-yard rushers in back-to-back games after going 44 straight regular-season contests without one, but they are just 1-1 in those games after suffering a 34-30 loss at Cincinnati in Week 3. Detroit handed Chicago its first loss of the season last Sunday, posting a 40-32 home victory to pull into a tie atop the division with the Bears. The Lions have scored 122 points, putting them third in the league behind Denver (179) and Chicago (127).

TV: 1 p.m. ET, FOX.

LINE: The Packers opened -7. The total opened at 52 and is up to 53.5.

WEATHER: Temperatures will be in the low-60s with a 17 percent chance of rain.

ABOUT THE LIONS (3-1): After watching his team end a 21-game road losing streak against Washington in Week 3, Detroit coach Jim Schwartz looks to do the same in Green Bay on Sunday. "Close doesn't count. We're not trying to play close games, even though we have," he said. Each of the Lions' last three losses to the Packers have been by seven or fewer points. With receivers Nate Burleson (forearm) and Patrick Edwards (ankle) battling injuries, Detroit signed Kevin Ogletree on Wednesday - one day after he was released by Tampa Bay.

ABOUT THE PACKERS (1-2): James Starks and rookie Johnathan Franklin each reached the century mark in rushing yards for Green Bay this season, but the former won't get the chance to repeat the feat as he is expected to miss several weeks with a sprained knee suffered in the loss to Cincinnati. The Packers' backfield receives a boost this week, however, as rookie Eddie Lacy returns from a concussion. Safety Morgan Burnett could also be back from his hamstring injury, but linebacker Clay Matthews is questionable with a similar ailment.

TRENDS:

* Lions are 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 meetings in Green Bay.
* Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
* Favorite is 9-4 ATS in their last 13 meetings.
* Packers are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games following a bye week.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Aaron Rodgers is undefeated against Detroit in eight career starts with a minimum of 15 passing attempts, going 169-of-246 for 2,239 yards and 18 touchdowns with only four interceptions.

2. The Lions' lone win in their last 15 meetings with the Packers was a 7-3 home triumph on Dec. 12, 2010.

3. Detroit QB Matthew Stafford and WR Calvin Johnson both set career highs at Green Bay on Jan. 1, 2012. Stafford passed for 520 yards while Johnson had 244 yards receiving.


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[Udog]

Essential betting tidbits for Week 5 of the NFL

We dug up these vital betting tidbits for some of Sunday's NFL action that will help you make the right call before kickoff.

- The last time the New England Patriots were 5-0 to start a season, they finished 16-0 (2007). The are in Cincy to face the Bengals with the line as a Pick.

- Speaking of those Bengals, they have lost seven of eight versus the Pats and have lost all four with Tom Brady under center.

- Where were you when....the Detroit Lions last won in Green Bay? The Pack have won 21-straight football games at Lambeau versus the Lions and are 15-5-1 ATS in that stretch. The last Lions victory at Green Bay was in 1991.

- Despite Green Bay's home dominance over the Lions, Matthew Stafford tossed a career-high 520 yards at Lambeau in the regular season finale tow seasons ago.

- The Seattle Seahawks defense has seven interceptions on the season and have recorded multi-INT games in three straight. The Seahawks are 1-point road faves in Indy Sunday.

- The Colts defense is 29th in the NFL allowing opponents to score on 75 percent of their trips inside the red zone.

- Dolphins QB Ryan Tannehill has completed just three-of-nine passes of 20 yards or more this season. Only the Chiefs, Jags and Lions have completed fewer.

- The Dolphins host the Baltimore Ravens with a total of 43.5 Sunday. The under is 5-2 in the last seven meetings in Miami.

- The hot New Orleans Saints are in Chicago to face the Bears. The two teams have combined to play over the total in five straight meetings in the Windy City. Sunday's total is 50.

- Drew Brees' 59.4 percent completion percentage against the Chicago Bears is his second lowest against any opponent. Only a 57.4 clip against Washington is worse.

- The dog is 13-3-1 in the last 17 meetings between the Philadelphia Eagles and New York Giants. Philly is currently a 1-point road dog Sunday.

- The Kansas City Chiefs are the top consensus play at 74 percent. The Chiefs are 2.5-point road faves at Tennessee.

- The Chiefs at Titans matchups looks to be a defensive battle. The Chiefs allow a league-low 10.3 points per game and the Titans rank seventh, allowing 17.3.

- The Jacksonville Jaguars and St. Louis Rams have faced each other three times. The Rams are 3-0 ATS in those three meetings.

- The Jags' 31 points scored is the lowest - by 13 - in the league thus far.

- Panthers RB DeAngelo Williams has rushed for 417 yards and two TDs in four meetings with Arizona, including three 100-yard games.

- The Denver Broncos are in Dallas Sunday as 7.5-point faves. The Broncos have won 15 consecutive regular-season games, each by seven points or more.

- 49ers S Donte Whitner has changed his name to Donte Hitner. This is a thing that happened.

- The Houston Texans struggle against the spread in Week 5 for some reason. They are 0-8 ATS in their last eight Week 5 games. They'll give it a shot Sunday as 6-point road dogs in San Fran Sunday night.

- Because of Sunday Oakland A's playoff game, the Chargers/Raiders game has switched t 11:35 p.m. ET Sunday night.

- The Chargers have won 16 of 19 meetings with the Raiders and are 4.5-point road faves for this late tilt.

[Udog]

NFL betting weather report: Sunday's forecasts

Find out how weather will impact your NFL bets for Sunday's matchups:

New England Patriots at Cincinnati Bengals (Pick, 45)

There is a 90 percent chance of thunderstorms in the forecast. Wind will blow across the field at 9 mph.


Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers (-7, 53.5)

Temperatures will be in the low-60s with a 17 percent chance of rain.


Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins (-2.5, 43.5)

Forecasts in Miami are calling for a 30 percent chance of thunderstorms.


New Orleans Saints at Chicago Bears (Pick, 50)

Temperatures will be in the low-60s with a small chance of rain. Wind will blow across the field at 8 mph.


Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants (-1, 53)

There is a slight 18 percent chance of rain with wind blowing across the field at 7 mph.


Kansas City Chiefs at Tennessee Titans (+2.5, 38.5)

Forecasts in Nashville are calling for an 80 percent chance of thunderstorms.


Houston Texans at San Francisco 49ers (-6, 41.5)

Temperatures will be in the low-60s with clear skies.


San Diego Chargers at Oakland Raiders (+4.5, 45)

Temperatures will be in the low-60s with clear skies.

[Kaptain]

once again, thanks U Dog....appreciate your hard work

[StarDust Bum]

DITTO...................good luck dog.........

How goes Kapt??

Did you love that DOUBLE POD yesterday DOG??

[Udog]

DITTO...................good luck dog.........

How goes Kapt??

Did you love that DOUBLE POD yesterday DOG??

Yes, I did, Bum! I played it just like you called it, too! I was loaded up on Indiana! Twice as much as I usually play on #1 pod's!

[Udog]

NFL

Monday, October 7

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Monday Night Football betting: Jets at Falcons
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New York Jets at Atlanta Falcons (-10, 44)

The Atlanta Falcons have made three straight postseason appearances and won a pair of division titles in that span, but they are venturing into must-win territory entering Monday night's home matchup with the New York Jets. The Falcons already trail NFC South front-runner New Orleans by three games and will be out to avoid a third straight defeat for the first time since 2007. The Jets will look to bounce back from a turnover-riddled loss at Tennessee last week.

New York, and rookie quarterback Geno Smith in particular, hardly looked ready for prime time against the Titans and managed only a single touchdown for the third time in four games. Smith, who won the quarterback job when incumbent Mark Sanchez suffered a serious shoulder injury in the preseason, committed four turnovers that Tennessee turned into 28 points. It's something that has to stop now in order for us to progress and to get better as an offense and as a team," Smith conceded.

TV: 8:40 p.m. ET, ESPN.
LINE: The Falcons opened -9.5 and are now -10. The total is currently 44.
WEATHER: N/A

ABOUT THE JETS (2-2): Smith needs to curb his string of mistakes after throwing eight interceptions and turning over the ball 11 times through four games, tying for the league lead. That task could be arduous if Smith is without starting wide receivers Santonio Holmes (hamstring) and Stephen Hill (concussion), who had each gone over 100 yards in a Week 3 victory over the Buffalo Bills. Holmes had only one reception last week before he was injured and voiced his displeasure about it this week, saying, "I can’t throw it to myself and catch it. Otherwise I would."

ABOUT THE FALCONS (1-3): Atlanta continues to lament its inability to convert in the red zone, but a bigger issue has been a defense that has yet to hold an opponent under 23 points, has produced only seven sacks and is allowing 26 points and a robust 393.3 yards per game. Matt Ryan threw for a career-high 421 yards in last week's 30-23 loss to New England but the offense has been inconsistent without a healthy Roddy White (10 catches) and running back Steven Jackson, who will miss his third straight game with a hamstring injury. Wideout Julio Jones leads the league with 481 receiving yards.

TRENDS:

* Over is 4-0 in the Falcons last four home games.
* Falcons are 1-6 ATS in their last seven games overall.
* Jets are 5-1 ATS in their last six games in October.
* Under is 4-1 in Jets last five road games.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Ryan is 34-6 at home, including wins in 12 of his last 14 games.

2. RB Mike Goodson is expected to make his debut with the Jets after serving a four-game suspension for violating the league's drug policy.

3. Jones is aiming for his fourth consecutive 100-yard game.


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[Udog]

NFL

Monday, October 7

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Tale of the Tape: New York Jets at Atlanta Falcons
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Something has to give when the Atlanta Falcons entertain the New York Jets in Week 5's Monday night showdown. The Falcons are off to a dreadful 1-3 start thanks to a defense that is surrendering an average of 26 points per game. That could be just the tonic the Jets need, as they come in with a 2-2 mark but an average of just 17 points per contest.

Here's the breakdown in our betting tale of the tape:

Offense

The Falcons have yet to field their best offensive roster thanks to a pair of key injuries. Running back Steven Jackson will miss his third consecutive game with a hamstring injury, but may make his return to the lineup following Atlanta's Week 6 bye. Wide receiver Roddy White has played through an ankle injury, but he should also benefit from the week off. Atlanta has made do despite the injuries, ranking sixth in the league in yards per game (398.5) and a respectable 13th in points per game (23.5).

While the Jets have struggled to put up points, it hasn't been from a lack of yardage. New York is in the middle of the pack in passing yards per game (243.3) and actually ranks 11th in rushing yards per contest (123). A lack of discipline on behalf of his teammates has made life difficult for rookie quarterback Geno Smith; the Jets' offense ranks first in the NFL with 44 penalties, totaling 345 yards. They've also been sloppy with the ball, losing four fumbles and being on the wrong end of eight interceptions for an AFC-worst 12 turnovers.

Edge: Atlanta


Defense

The Atlanta pass defense has been abysmal through the opening month of the 2013 campaign, getting gashed for an average of 301 yards per game and nine touchdowns. The Falcons are allowing opposing quarterbacks to complete better than 65 percent of their passes - the ninth-worst mark in the NFL - and their seven sacks are the third-fewest in the league. Atlanta is far more stout against the run, surrendering an average of 92.3 yards per game on the ground - tied with the Carolina Panthers for seventh overall.

Even with the departure of superstar defensive back Darrelle Revis, the Jets possess one of the top defenses in football. Only six teams are surrendering fewer passing yards per game than New York, which is holding the opposition to 204 per contest. The rush defense is even better - the Jets have permitted the fewest total yards on the ground (317), with their 79.3 per game average second only to Denver. One area of concern is the turnovers; New York has just one fumble recovery and one interception through four games.

Edge: New York


Special teams

Atlanta ranks in the middle of the pack in average kick return yards against (24), but has defended just four returns all season. The punt return defense is a far different story, with the Falcons allowing just 13 return yards on eight attempts. Atlanta has returned just two kickoffs for a total of 46 yards, while running back eight punts for 35 yards. Veteran placekicker Matt Bryant is 8-for-9 on field-goal opportunities so far in 2013, including makes from 23, 45 and 25 yards in last weekend's 30-23 loss to the New England Patriots.

The Jets have had one of the worst kickoff return games in the league, averaging just 16.8 yards in seven attempts - ahead of only the Green Bay Packers at 12.1. New York isn't much better in the punt return game, with its 5.1-yard average on eight returns good for 26th in the NFL. The Jets are allowing the fourth-highest kickoff return average (27) and the sixth-highest punt return average (11.3). New York placekicker Nick Folk is a perfect 8-for-8 in field-goal changes so far in 2013, with all of them coming from at least 30 yards out.

Edge: Atlanta


Notable Quotable

"You've got to play it respectfully and understand that (Falcons quarterback) Matt Ryan does get the ball out quick and you have to understand that there are going to be chances for us to make plays. We just have to be sure that we go out and capitalize when we can." - Jets CB Antonio Cromartie

"It's not just one area, not just one group. We had some protection issues. We had some routes that weren't run right. We had some drops. We had some missed throws. I can assure you we are addressing it as a coaching staff with our team." - Falcons head coach Mike Smith on last week's loss to the Patriots


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[Udog]

NFL

Monday, October 7

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NFL betting: Monday Night Football on over trend
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The 'over' has been the trend through the first four weeks of Monday Night Football.

After the first five games on Monday night through the first quarter of the regular season (Week 1 had a MNF double header), the over has posted a record of 4-1.

The only matchup not to soar over the total was the Week 2 meeting between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Cincinnati Bengals. The Bengals won 20-10 with the total set at 40.

Granted, we've seen some of the most potent offenses in the league on Monday night to start the season. The Denver Broncos, Philadelphia Eagles, San Diego Chargers and New Orleans Saints have all played on Monday night thus far.

Week 5 brings us the New York Jets (3-1 O/U) at Atlanta Falcons (3-1 O/U). The total is currently 44.


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