Announcement

**Udog** · 10-02-2013, 05:42 PM

NFL odds: Week 5 opening line report

If your sportsbook is currently dealing Kansas City as a 3-point favorite in Tennessee this Sunday, take a picture. According to one Las Vegas oddsmaker, it’s not going to last long.

The 4-0 Chiefs opened as field-goal faves visiting a Titans squad that just lost its hottest player. Tennessee QB Jake Locker was lighting up the scoreboards before being carted off with a hip injury during Week 4’s blowout win against the Jets.

“We originally sent out Kansas City as a short favorite but since the Locker injury, we’ve suggested a move to Chiefs -3,” Peter Korner, founder of the Nevada-based odds service The Sports Club, tells Covers. “Books should likely get off three pretty quickly. With the combo of Kansas City’s success and Tennessee losing their quarterback, I don’t know where the Titans money is going to come from.”

The Chiefs have been dominant in their last two outings and coming off a 31-7 beating of the winless Giants Sunday. Korner says Kansas City may be peaking too early, but doesn’t see it taking a step back against a Tennessee team turning to veteran QB Ryan Fitzpatrick as its backup.

“Fitzpatrick is probably a better option at backup than most teams have,” says Korner. “He’s been there before and the team will rally around him. But if things keep going K.C.’s way, why not take the Chiefs as a field-goal fave?”

Seattle Seahawks at Indianapolis Colts (+2.5, 43)

Korner’s stable of oddsmakers sent out Indianapolis as a 3-point home underdog but the early action has trimmed that spread by half a point at some books. Seattle looked human for most of Sunday’s game with Houston, but turned it on down the stretch and squeaked out an OT win to improve to 4-0.

“We’re a little worried about two road games in a row,” Korner says of the Seahawks’ schedule. “Being on that key number was important for us. Seattle’s tight game Sunday should help keep the Seahawks money in check a bit this week.”

Denver Broncos at Dallas Cowboys (+7, 55)

This is shaping up to be the biggest game of the week, with the NFL’s best team taking on its most popular. Korner says the Cowboys faithful will show up but doesn’t think it will be enough to keep this spread from crossing the key number of 7.5.

“Denver looks as impressive as any team we’ve seen in recent seasons,” he says. “We had three guys bring Denver -3 to the table and one said Denver -6. We all immediately agreed on Denver -6. The Broncos can pile it on anywhere. They sky is the limit with this line.”

Houston Texans at San Francisco 49ers (-7, 42.5)

This Sunday Night Football line could have been very different if Houston had of hung on against Seattle. But, that letdown and a sharp performance from the Niners on Thursday have oddsmakers thinking twice about San Francisco’s early struggles.

“That (Thursday) win put it in the minds of people that San Francisco can put it all together,” says Korner. “I don’t know if they’re back on track yet but if they can handle Houston, it would seem like they’re back track. On paper it should be a good game, but after Houston lost that one Sunday…”

Korner says Northern Nevada books, which get a lot of bettors from the Bay Area, should add a couple more points to this spread and hike the parlay card line to 8.5.

**Udog** · 10-02-2013, 05:53 PM

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 5

Thursday, October 3

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BUFFALO (2 - 2) at CLEVELAND (2 - 2) - 10/3/2013, 8:25 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
BUFFALO is 1-0 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
BUFFALO is 1-0 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Sunday, October 6

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KANSAS CITY (4 - 0) at TENNESSEE (3 - 1) - 10/6/2013, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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BALTIMORE (2 - 2) at MIAMI (3 - 0) - 10/6/2013, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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JACKSONVILLE (0 - 4) at ST LOUIS (1 - 3) - 10/6/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
JACKSONVILLE is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 2 seasons.
JACKSONVILLE is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 129-166 ATS (-53.6 Units) in all games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 129-166 ATS (-53.6 Units) in all lined games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NEW ENGLAND (4 - 0) at CINCINNATI (2 - 2) - 10/6/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 79-45 ATS (+29.5 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 100-70 ATS (+23.0 Units) in road games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 100-70 ATS (+23.0 Units) in road lined games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 154-115 ATS (+27.5 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 78-54 ATS (+18.6 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
CINCINNATI is 112-145 ATS (-47.5 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
CINCINNATI is 30-48 ATS (-22.8 Units) in October games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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SEATTLE (4 - 0) at INDIANAPOLIS (3 - 1) - 10/6/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 27-50 ATS (-28.0 Units) in October games since 1992.
SEATTLE is 17-5 ATS (+11.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 17-5 ATS (+11.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 15-2 ATS (+12.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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DETROIT (3 - 1) at GREEN BAY (1 - 2) - 10/6/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 since 1992.
DETROIT is 7-19 ATS (-13.9 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive wins since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
GREEN BAY is 4-0 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY is 4-0 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NEW ORLEANS (4 - 0) at CHICAGO (3 - 1) - 10/6/2013, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 1-0 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 1-0 straight up against CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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PHILADELPHIA (1 - 3) at NY GIANTS (0 - 4) - 10/6/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 4-15 ATS (-12.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 4-15 ATS (-12.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 151-116 ATS (+23.4 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY GIANTS is 2-1 against the spread versus PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
NY GIANTS is 2-2 straight up against PHILADELPHIA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CAROLINA (1 - 2) at ARIZONA (2 - 2) - 10/6/2013, 4:05 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA is 1-0 against the spread versus CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
ARIZONA is 1-0 straight up against CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SAN DIEGO (2 - 2) at OAKLAND (1 - 3) - 10/6/2013, 11:35 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 21-40 ATS (-23.0 Units) in home games versus division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
OAKLAND is 2-2 against the spread versus SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons
SAN DIEGO is 3-1 straight up against OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DENVER (4 - 0) at DALLAS (2 - 2) - 10/6/2013, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 13-2 ATS (+10.8 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) after 2 or more consecutive wins over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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HOUSTON (2 - 2) at SAN FRANCISCO (2 - 2) - 10/6/2013, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 3 seasons.
HOUSTON is 35-16 ATS (+17.4 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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Sunday, October 6

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NY JETS (2 - 2) at ATLANTA (1 - 3) - 10/7/2013, 8:40 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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**Udog** · 10-02-2013, 06:02 PM

NFL

Week 5

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Trend Report
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Thursday, October 3

8:25 PM
BUFFALO vs. CLEVELAND
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Buffalo's last 6 games
Buffalo is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cleveland's last 5 games
Cleveland is 7-18 SU in its last 25 games

Sunday, October 6

1:00 PM
NEW ORLEANS vs. CHICAGO
New Orleans is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New Orleans's last 6 games on the road
Chicago is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games
Chicago is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against New Orleans

1:00 PM
DETROIT vs. GREEN BAY
Detroit is 5-15-2 ATS in its last 22 games when playing on the road against Green Bay
Detroit is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 18 of Green Bay's last 25 games at home
Green Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

1:00 PM
KANSAS CITY vs. TENNESSEE
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Kansas City's last 8 games
Kansas City is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games on the road
Tennessee is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tennessee's last 6 games when playing at home against Kansas City

1:00 PM
NEW ENGLAND vs. CINCINNATI
New England is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Cincinnati is 9-3-1 ATS in its last 13 games
Cincinnati is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home

1:00 PM
JACKSONVILLE vs. ST. LOUIS
Jacksonville is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games
Jacksonville is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games
St. Louis is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
St. Louis is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games

1:00 PM
BALTIMORE vs. MIAMI
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Baltimore's last 8 games when playing on the road against Miami
Baltimore is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Miami's last 10 games when playing Baltimore
Miami is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Baltimore

1:00 PM
SEATTLE vs. INDIANAPOLIS
Seattle is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Indianapolis
The total has gone OVER in 8 of Seattle's last 12 games
Indianapolis is 12-4 SU in its last 16 games
Indianapolis is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games at home

1:00 PM
PHILADELPHIA vs. NY GIANTS
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Philadelphia's last 7 games
Philadelphia is 2-14 SU in its last 16 games
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of the NY Giants last 17 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
NY Giants are 1-5 SU in their last 6 games when playing at home against Philadelphia

4:05 PM
CAROLINA vs. ARIZONA
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Carolina's last 5 games on the road
Carolina is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games when playing Arizona
Arizona is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Carolina
Arizona is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games at home

4:25 PM
DENVER vs. DALLAS
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Denver's last 8 games on the road
Denver is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Dallas is 3-10 ATS in its last 13 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas's last 6 games at home

8:30 PM
HOUSTON vs. SAN FRANCISCO
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston's last 5 games
Houston is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 9 of San Francisco's last 11 games
San Francisco is 16-7-1 ATS in its last 24 games at home

11:30 PM
SAN DIEGO vs. OAKLAND
San Diego is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Oakland
The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Diego's last 6 games
Oakland is 2-9 ATS in its last 11 games when playing at home against San Diego
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Oakland's last 6 games when playing at home against San Diego

Monday, October 7

8:40 PM
NY JETS vs. ATLANTA
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of the NY Jets last 6 games when playing Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of the NY Jets last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Atlanta's last 6 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games at home

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**Udog** · 10-02-2013, 07:46 PM

Where the action is: NFL mid-week line moves

The NFL Week 5 lines have been among the most volatile of the season, with numerous spreads and totals jumping way off their original post.

We talk to Peter Childs of Sportsbook.com and Las Vegas veteran oddsmaker Jimmy Vaccaro about the biggest adjustments on the Week 5 board and where the lines could end up come kickoff:

New Orleans Saints at Chicago Bears – Open: Pick, Move: -1.5, Move: +1

Despite an awesome performance on Monday Night Football, the Saints opened a pick for their trip to the Windy City and have moved to 1.5-point underdogs at some books. However, money is coming in hard on New Orleans and some shops are dealing the Saints as favorites with 80 percent of the action on the road side.

“We opened the Saints-Bears a pick’em and sure enough, our bettors are all over the Saints in this game,” says Childs. “Just this morning we made the Saints a small 1-point road favorite.”

Jacksonville Jaguars at St. Louis Rams – Open: -14, Move: -11.5

Bettors didn’t think the Rams were good enough to be two-touchdown favorites, even if they are hosting the Jaguars Sunday. Action on Jacksonville has taken this spread down as many as 2.5 points at some markets.

“Overpriced is a term that doesn’t seem to fit the Jaguars any more. Early action has come in on Jacksonville the last few weeks,” says Vaccaro. “You kind of have to play defense with these bad teams. People have been betting the big spreads on teams like Seattle and Denver. So while the Jaguars line will come down, it could be right where it started on Sunday.”

New England Patriots at Cincinnati Bengals – Open: Pick, Move: -1.5

Some books have moved off a pick to Bengals to -1.5 while others opened Cincinnati -1.5 and moved to pick’em. According to Childs, Sportsbook.com went from Cincy -1.5 to Pick with the betting public eating up New England after a strong showing Sunday night. So far, 75 percent of the action is on the Pats.

“None of that action was sharp, it’s all public money but when our bettors all land on the same side of a game our liability gets a bit out of control, so we’ve been aggressive with this game,” he says. “I wouldn’t be surprised if the Patriots are eventually the favorite come Sunday.”

Carolina Panthers at Arizona Cardinals – Open: Pick, Move: +2

Another tight spread which opened at a pick’em at most shops has moved in favor of the road side. Arizona squeaked out a win over Tampa Bay in Week 4 while the Panthers enjoyed a bye week after crushing the Giants the week before.

“It’s the same old thing (with bye weeks),” says Vaccaro. “It can’t hurt them. But everything is in the number now, so there’s no real edge in betting these teams coming off the bye. If you’re betting this game, and betting a team because they’re coming off the bye… well, let’s put it this way. You aren’t going to retire soon.”

Denver Broncos at Dallas Cowboys – Open: +7, Move: +9

Oddsmakers opened Dallas as a touchdown underdog hosting the NFL’s hottest team. That wasn’t enough for early bettors, who pumped this line up as many as two points. The Cowboys are one of the most public teams in football betting and have begun to see buyback with the spread sitting at +9.

“Unless a sharp betting group hammers the Cowboys, I doubt we’ll move off our current number,” says Childs. “But it’s still very early and all the wiseguys are just sitting on the sideline for now waiting to see how high this line will get. In my opinion, they’re going to jump all over the Cowboys at some point, especially now that the game is over a TD in our shop and most of our competitors are getting there as well.”

“This is by far the biggest bet game at this point in the week, with 80 percent of the action on the road favorite,” he adds.

**Udog** · 10-03-2013, 09:52 AM

NFL
Dunkel

Week 5

Buffalo at Cleveland
The Browns look to follow up their 17-6 win over the Bengals last weekend and build on their 6-2 ATS record in their last 8 games after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game. Cleveland is the pick (-3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Browns favored by 7. Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-3 1/2). Here are all of this week's picks.

THURSDAY, OCTOBER 3

Game 301-302: Buffalo at Cleveland (8:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 128.637; Cleveland 135.701
Dunkel Line: Cleveland by 7; 44
Vegas Line: Cleveland by 3 1/2; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cleveland (-3 1/2); Over

SUNDAY, OCTOBER 6

Game 413-414: Kansas City at Tennessee (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City 134.440; Tennessee 129.302
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 5; 34
Vegas Line: Kansas City by 3; 38 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-3); Under

Game 415-416: Baltimore at Miami (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore 133.136; Miami 138.252
Dunkel Line: Miami by 5; 39
Vegas Line: Miami by 2 1/2; 43 1/2;
Dunkel Pick: Miami (-2 1/2); Under

Game 417-418: Jacksonville at St. Louis (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Jacksonville 115.243; St. Louis 124.746
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 9 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: St. Louis by 11 1/2; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Jacksonville (+11 1/2); Over

Game 419-420: New England at Cincinnati (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New England 137.949; Cincinnati 140.852
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 3; 49
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 1; 45
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-1); Over

Game 421-422: Seattle at Indianapolis (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 141.063; Indianapolis 131.826
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 9; 40
Vegas Line: Seattle by 2 1/2; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-2 1/2); Under

Game 423-424: Detroit at Green Bay (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 129.625; Green Bay 141.654
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 12; 57
Vegas Line: Green Bay by 7; 53 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (-7); Over

Game 425-426: New Orleans at Chicago (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 140.703; Chicago 135.290
Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 5 1/2; 46
Vegas Line: Pick; 48 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans; Under

Game 427-428: Philadelphia at NY Giants (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 130.236; NY Giants 126.619
Dunkel Line: Philadelphia by 3 1/2; 57
Vegas Line: NY Giants by 2 1/2; 53
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+2 1/2); Over

Game 429-430: Carolina at Arizona (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 130.490; Arizona 131.499
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1; 37
Vegas Line: Carolina by 2; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+2); Under

Game 431-432: San Diego at Oakland (11:35 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego 133.189; Oakland 126.352
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 7; 42
Vegas Line: San Diego by 4; 45
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (-4); Under

Game 433-434: Denver at Dallas (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 143.106; Dallas 138.718
Dunkel Line: Denver by 4 1/2; 60
Vegas Line: Denver by 8; 56
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (+8); Over

Game 435-436: Houston at San Francisco (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 131.061; San Francisco 140.064
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 9; 45
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 6 1/2; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-6 1/2); Over

MONDAY, OCTOBER 7

Game 437-438: NY Jets at Atlanta (8:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Jets 130.924; Atlanta 135.950
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 5; 39
Vegas Line: Atlanta by 10; 43
Dunkel Pick: NY Jets (+10); Under

**Udog** · 10-03-2013, 09:54 AM

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 5

Thursday's Game

Bills (2-2) @ Browns (2-2)— Cleveland is 2-0 with Hoyer at QB, gaining 745 yards in two games, after gaining 550 in two games with Weeden under center; they’re still struggling to run ball (89 yards/30 carries last week) but they’ve averaged 5.3/6.0 per pass attempt with Hoyer (4.1/4.6 in first two games), and have five TDs in his six red zone drives (1 of 3 with Weeden)- they’ve converted 15-33 on 3rd down with Hoyer (5-29 in first two games). Buffalo lost only road game 27-20 to Jets despite +2 turnover margin; they’ve run ball for 120+ yards in all four games and have 11 takeaways (+4) in four games. Bills are 4-10-1 in last 15 games as road underdog, just as Browns are 4-10-1 in last 15 as home favorites. Teams split six series games, with average total in last five, 26.0. AFC East underdogs are 5-2 vs spread in non-divisional games, 2-2 on road; AFC North favorites are 0-3 outside the division. Three of four Cleveland games stayed under the total.

**Udog** · 10-03-2013, 09:59 AM

NFL

Thursday, October 3

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Thursday Night Football betting: Bills at Browns
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Buffalo Bills at Cleveland Browns (-4, 40.5)

What had the makings of a lost season has evolved into a remarkable turnaround for the Cleveland Browns, who will seek their third consecutive victory when they host the Buffalo Bills on Thursday night. The Browns appeared to have raised the surrender flag after losing their first two games and trading away star running back Trent Richardson. Instead, third-string quarterback Brian Hoyer has guided Cleveland to two straight wins and into a tie atop the AFC North.

The Bills expected some growing pains with rookie E.J. Manuel as their starting quarterback, but they are coming off an impressive 23-20 home victory over Baltimore to get back to .500. Manuel struggled against the defending Super Bowl champions, but Buffalo rode an impressive ground game and stout defensive performance to stifle the Ravens. The Bills and Browns have split six all-time meetings, with Buffalo prevailing 24-14 in Cleveland last season.

TV: 8:25 p.m. ET, NFL Network.

LINE: Cleveland opened as low as -3 and has moved to -4. The total opened at 41 and moved down to 40.5.

WEATHER: Temperatures in the low 70s with a 61 percent chance of thunder showers and winds blowing south at 6 mph.

COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Buffalo (+5.5) - Cleveland (+3.5) + home field (-3) = Browns -5

ABOUT THE BILLS (2-2, 3-1 ATS): Buffalo has major injury concerns entering Thursday's matchup as running backs C.J. Spiller (ankle) and Fred Jackson (knee) were both hurt after combining for 164 yards on the ground against Baltimore. Jackson said he has a torn MCL in his left knee but expects to play while X-rays revealed no structural damage for Spiller, who will test the ankle before Thursday's game. Manuel threw for only 167 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions and a lost fumble, but Buffalo's defense collected four sacks and intercepted quarterback Joe Flacco five times, including two by rookie linebacker Kiko Alonso.

ABOUT THE BROWNS (2-2, 2-2 ATS): First-year coach Rob Chudzinski is not about to tamper with a winning formula, saying he will stick with Hoyer at quarterback - "Certainly he's been the spark that I had hoped for," the coach said - even though 2012 first-round pick Brandon Weeden is ready to return after missing two games with a thumb injury. Hoyer has developed a great chemistry with tight end Jordan Cameron, who had 10 catches in Sunday's 17-6 win over Cincinnati and has 16 receptions and four touchdowns in the past two games. Cleveland's defense limited the Bengals to 266 total yards, including 63 on the ground in 20 attempts.

TRENDS:

* Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
* Bills are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games.
* Browns are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall.
* Under is 4-1 in Bills last five vs. AFC.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. The Bills held the Browns to 240 yards in last season's 24-16 win.

2. Hoyer is the first Cleveland QB to win his first two starts since Mark Rypien in 1994

3. Alonso is only the fourth linebacker in league history to intercept four passes in September, a list that includes Hall of Famer Jack Lambert and former Super Bowl MVP Chuck Howley.

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**Udog** · 10-03-2013, 10:02 AM

NFL

Thursday, October 3

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Tale of the tape: Buffalo Bills at Cleveland Browns
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Two vastly different ground attacks highlight Thursday night's showdown between the Buffalo Bills and the host Cleveland Browns. The Bills boast one of the most robust rushing games in the NFL through the first month of the season, but has struggled defending the ground game. The Browns have the opposite problem, limiting opponents' rushing yards but struggling mightily to generate their own.

Here's the breakdown in our betting tale of the tape:

Offense

Buffalo is still looking for consistency from its passing game behind rookie quarterback E.J. Manuel. The Bills rank 28th in the league in passing yards per game at 198, with just five touchdowns and three interceptions. The rushing attack is another matter altogether, with Buffalo sitting second in the NFL at 152 yards per game. What makes that statistic stand out is the fact that feature back C.J. Spiller has been underwhelming so far in 2013, averaging just 3.5 yards per carry and still looking for his first rushing touchdown of the year.

The Browns' decision to trade lead back Trent Richardson to the Indianapolis Colts without getting a rusher in return signaled the start of a dreadful committee that has resulted in one of the worst ground attacks in the NFL. Cleveland is averaging a paltry 76 rushing yards per game - the sixth-worst mark in the league - and are one of only two teams, along with St. Louis, without a TD on the ground. The passing game has improved dramatically with Bryan Hoyer under center, ranked 13th in total yards (991) and tied for ninth in touchdowns (seven).

Edge: Buffalo

Defense

The Bills' pass defense has been mostly mediocre, allowing the 10th-most yards in football (1,108) and the ninth-most touchdowns (eight). The Bills do have a star in the making in rookie LB Kiko Alonso, who has racked up four of the Bills' league-leading nine interceptions. Where Buffalo really struggles is in rush defense, where it has surrendered the sixth-highest yardage total and the ninth-highest yards-per-attempt average (4.2). The Bills have managed the red zone well, however, allowing just one rushing store.

As poorly as the Browns run the ball, they don't let other teams do it, either. Cleveland's rush defense is the class of the NFL through the first four weeks, allowing the fewest yards per carry (2.9) and limiting opponents to a longest run of just 14 yards. Strangely, however, the Browns have permitted five rushing touchdowns on the year, tied for the third-most in the league. Cleveland has been stingy through the air, as well, limiting opponents to 213 yards per game while allowing just two touchdowns - tied for the fewest in the NFL.

Edge: Cleveland

Special Teams

Bills placekicker Dan Carpenter has connected on 10-of-11 field goals so far this season, including two 27-yarders and a 22-yarder in Buffalo's 23-20 triumph over the Baltimore Ravens in Week 4. The Bills have had just two kick returns for a total of 37 yards, while averaging 8.1 yards per attempt on seven punt returns. Buffalo has done well in minimizing opponents' returns, allowing the ninth-fewest yards per kickoff return (20.1) and sitting near the middle of the pack in average return yards per punt (8.4).

Cleveland has had plenty of experience on kickoff returns - bringing back nine to date - and is averaging 25.9 yards per return, good for eighth in the NFL. The Browns' 7.7-yard average on punt returns ranks 15th out of 32 teams. Cleveland is limiting opponents to 20.3 yards per kickoff return - ranking 10th overall - and has surrendered just 67 total yards on 10 punt returns. Veteran placekicker Billy Cundiff has struggled to date, converting just five of his seven field-goal attempts. Both of his misses came in last week's win over Cincinnati.

Edge: Buffalo

Notable quotable

"Sitting at 2-2, it's not where we wanted to be. But after an 0-2 start, it's as good as we could have done. Sitting there with a lot of games to go, but still fighting in the division. You can't ask for any more." - Browns tackle Joe Thomas

"It just shows you, like I've heard Fred (Jackson) saying, 'We're not the same Bills.' I would say fans are starting to believe. And we're going to keep believing and keep pushing." - Bills safety Da'Norris Searcy

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**Udog** · 10-03-2013, 04:51 PM

NFL
Short Sheet

Thursday, October 3

Buffalo at Cleveland, 8:25 ET
Buffalo: 16-6 ATS off an extremely close home win by 3 points or less
Cleveland: 17-6 UNDER after the first month of the season

Sunday, October 6

Kansas City at Tennessee, 1:00 ET
Kansas City: 8-21 ATS in road games after allowing 17 points or less
Tennessee: 41-22 OVER in October games

Baltimore at Miami, 1:00 ET
Baltimore: 49-31 UNDER in road games off 1 or more consecutive unders
Miami: 6-0 UNDER in October games

Jacksonville at St Louis, 1:00 ET
Jacksonville: 4-12 ATS when playing with 6 or less days rest
St Louis: 11-1 ATS in home games after 4 or more ATS consecutive losses

New England at Cincinnati, 1:00 ET
New England: 100-70 ATS in road games
Cincinnati: 30-48 ATS in October games

Seattle at Indianapolis, 1:00 ET
Seattle: 71-15 OVER when they score 28 or more points
Indianapolis: 80-17 OVER when they allow 28 or more points

Detroit at Green Bay, 1:00 ET
Detroit: 1-10 ATS after scoring 30 points or more last game
Green Bay: 11-2 ATS versus division opponents

New Orleans at Chicago, 1:00 ET
New Orleans: 12-3 ATS off a home win
Chicago: 19-34 ATS after scoring 30 points or more last game

Philadelphia at NY Giants, 1:00 ET
Philadelphia: 0-6 ATS off a non-conference game
NY Giants: 6-0 ATS in home games off 2 or more consecutive unders

Carolina at Arizona, 4:05 ET
Carolina: 51-30 ATS after allowing 14 points or less
Arizona: 13-4 OVER after scoring and allowing 14 pts or less points

San Diego at Oakland, 11:35 ET
San Diego: 57-36 ATS after 2 or more consecutive ATS wins
Oakland: 21-40 ATS in home games versus division opponents

Denver at Dallas, 4:25 ET
Denver: 14-5 ATS in all lined games
Dallas: 0-6 ATS in home games off 1 or more straight overs

Houston at San Francisco, 8:30 ET
Houston: 21-9 ATS in games played on a grass field
San Francisco: 6-18 ATS after allowing 200 or less total yards in their previous game

Monday, October 7

NY Jets at Atlana, 8:40 ET
NY Jets: 0-8 ATS off 1 or more straight overs
Atlanta: 17-5 UNDER after gaining 375 or more total yards in 2 consecutive games

**Udog** · 10-03-2013, 04:59 PM

Capping the calendar: October's best/worst NFL bets

Although the rosters change with each season, NFL teams have a tendency of repeating themselves – especially when it comes to the pointspread wars.

With the leaves starting to fall, let’s take a look at some of the good and bad pro football team trends that have occurred in the month of October in the NFL since 1990.

HOME TEAMS

• Keep an eye on (Good): Pittsburgh will definitely be tested to keep this long stretch of excellent play going (28-15 ATS) with this year’s squad. They will be home just once and that will be a bitter battle with Baltimore.

Even when Kansas City has been dreadful, it still managed to play well at Arrowhead with a 27-18 ATS mark. The Chiefs will have three chances to improve on this record with Oakland, Houston and Cleveland coming to town.

• Keep an eye on (Bad): After making the playoffs the past two years, and starting 2-0 SU and ATS at Paul Brown Stadium in 2013, Cincinnati will be after real improvement on a 14-27 ATS mark this month again New England and the Jets.

AWAY TEAMS

• Good: Atlanta has been regarded as a great bet at home team for a number of years now, but actually the Falcons are 27-13 ATS as visitors in October. They will have one chance to prove themselves in Arizona the last Sunday of the month.

• Keep an eye on (Good): The last time the New York Giants looked this bad was the latter two-thirds of the 2009 season. Nevertheless, the G-Men have been money on the road and they will seek to improve upon 26-14 ATS record. They will undoubtedly be catching points at Chicago and at Philadelphia.

New England is a crisp 25-16 ATS in road affairs and tough test in Cincinnati and a return match in New Jersey with the Jets, where they are 12-2 ATS.

• Bad: Arizona is a historically odious road team no matter the time of year, but this month, the Cardinals are an insufferable 12-24 ATS. The lone trip to San Francisco does not figure to be pleasant for the Cards.

• Keep an eye on (Bad): Here we find two teams with a lousy past in October. One figures to improve and the other, not so much. Seattle (16-31 ATS) will be in the road uniforms three times, twice against division foes Arizona and St. Louis.

Thanks to a bye week, Tampa Bay (14-26 ATS) only has to travel to Atlanta for a road excursion this month of year.

FAVORITES

• Keep an eye on (Good): Given how St. Louis has played this season, it be difficult for the Rams to improve on 19-11 ATS record this month. Looking at the schedule, they will only have one chance when they are home against Jacksonville on Oct. 6.

• Bad: Because of a Halloween encounter, Cincinnati will play five games in October. The Bengals have been inconsistent and might not be favored as often as was once presumed. They will likely be a small favorite versus Buffalo and a larger favorite at home against the Jets. This is probably more than enough, as Cincy is 8-18 ATS supplying others with points.

• Keep an eye on (Bad): Tampa Bay is in the midst of another miserable campaign, which is exactly how the Bucs play in the role of favorites with a 15-25 ATS mark. We will see what oddsmakers think of the Bucs at home against Philadelphia and Carolina and wager accordingly.

UNDERDOGS

• Good: Given how Pittsburgh and the New York Giants have played thus far, their past history acknowledges they are almost nicely suited to be underdogs. The Steelers are 20-7 ATS and the Giants are 20-9 ATS, unfortunately in most cases it was with far better teams than what we have seen in 2013.

• Keep an eye on (Good): For years, Carolina has relished the underdog role in the second month of the season with a 25-14 spread record. Depending on circumstances, the Panthers might not have many opportunities, with trips to Minnesota and Tampa Bay the only possibilities.

• Keep an eye on (Bad): The Vikings are 12-22 ATS on the receiving end of points and could be in this role at the N.Y. Giants and home versus Green Bay the second half of the month.

DIVISION

• Keep an eye on (Good): Atlanta may be off is a disappointing start, yet is 20-11 ATS in division conflicts and has the Buccaneers at home on Oct. 20.

The New York football Giants are 23-12 ATS and will have two chances to turn their season around with a home and home against the Eagles.

**Udog** · 10-05-2013, 11:49 AM

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 5

Eagles (1-3) @ Giants (0-4)—Both teams in freefall; winless Giants have 12 turnovers (-9) in four games, have been outscored 100-21 in last five halves and have only one TD on 25 drives in last two games, as banged-up OL can’t open holes or protect immobile QB Manning. Big Blue has been inside opponents’ 20-yard line once in last two games. Philly has been outscored 131-74 in last seven halves, as gimmicky fast-break offense flopped because defense can’t keep other team off field- they’ve allowed first down on 21 of last 41 3rd plays) and special teams allowed two TDs last week in Denver. Eagles are 17-8 vs spread in last 25 games as road underdog (1-1 this year); since ’09, Giants are 10-18-1 as a home favorite. Philly won eight of last ten series games, splitting last four; their 42-7 loss here LY was their first in last six visits to Swamp. Home favorites in divisional games are 9-4 vs spread so far this season. Three of four Eagle games went over the total.

Chiefs (4-0) @ Titans (3-1)—Unbeaten KC was 2-14 LY, so great story being written by Reid, canned after 14 (mostly good) years in Philly; Chiefs (+9) have 12 takeaways already, have given up only four TDs on 51 drives, allowing opponent inside its red zone four times (one TD, two FGs). On offense, they’ve run ball for 120.8 ypg, converted 24-59 (40.7%) of 3rd down plays, using scatback McCluster on key plays. Titans are off to solid 3-1 start, but lost QB Locker (hip) last week; in steps veteran Fitzpatrick, making 68th (23-41-1 W-L as starter Rams/Bills) NFL start, so he’s decent backup. Tennessee is also +9 in turnovers, with no giveaways in four games. Home side lost four of last six series games; Chiefs split two visits here, with last one in ’04. AFC West teams are 11-2 vs spread outside its division, 6-1 when favored; AFC South teams are 3-8 outside its division, 2-4 as an underdog (0-2 as HU). All four Chief games stayed under the total.

Ravens (2-2) @ Dolphins (3-1)—Well-coached Miami is 7-3 vs spread under Philbin in games where spread was 3 or less points; they’re 6-4 in last 10 games as home favorite (3-2 under Philbin). Fish lost first game Monday night, getting torched by Brees’ (30-39/397) passing- they won only home game so far on last-minute TD vs Falcons. Flacco threw five picks in 23-20 loss at Buffalo last week; Ravens covered once in last five games as a road dog- they’re 0-2 on foreign soil this year, converting just 11-38 on 3rd down—think Flacco misses Boldin/Pitta? Would expect Harbaugh to try and run ball more; they had only nine carries for 24 yards at Buffalo, with 54 dropbacks. Baltimore won last three series games by 14-18-16 points; they’ve won last two visits here, after losing four of previous five. Eight of last ten series totals were 38 or less. Last three Miami games went over the total; last three Raven games stayed under.

Jaguars (0-4) @ Rams (1-3)— Immense pressure on disappointing Rams to win this game, after getting smoked last three weeks, trailing 21-0/24-0/24-3 in three games; St Louis is double digit favorite for first time since ’04- they have total of 122 rushing yards in last three games, so expect them to try to establish some type of run game early on, vs Jaguar defense that allowed 177 rushing ypg in its last three tilts. Jax has been outscored 75-8 in first half of games, and that includes safety they got on blocked punt for first score of season. Rams won two of last three series games, with home side winning all three, all decided by a FG. NFC West non-divisional favorites are 4-1 vs spread this season; AFC South teams are 3-8 vs spread outside their division. Three of four Jaguar games stayed under total; three of four St Louis games went over. Jags owner Kahn tried to buy Rams but Kroenke had first dibs, as former minority (40%) owner.

Patriots (4-0) @ Bengals (2-2)—You get feeling Brady could have Tweeter from Varsity Blues as a WR and Pats would still score 30 points; they’ve only turned ball over once in last three games (+5) while converting 13-28 on third down in last two games. Unbeaten NE’s run defense will miss NT Willfork (achilles); they’ve allowed total of 155 rushing yards in last two games. Bengals scored 20-34 points in winning their two home games; they’re 4-2-1 in last seven games as home favorites, after being 3-13 in 16 games prior to that. Cincy lost field position battle in all four games, in part due to converting just 8 of last 25 third down plays. Pats are 7-2 in last nine games where spread was 3 or less points; Bengals are 16-8-1 in their last 25. Bengals lost four in row and seven of last eight series games, allowing 36.3 ppg in last four. Three of four NE games stayed under total, as Patriots allowed only one TD, four FGs on opponents’ last eight red zone drives.

Seahawks (4-0) @ Colts (3-1)—Unbeaten Seattle was down 20-3 at half in Houston last week, but defense shut Texans out in second half, scored tying TD with pick-6 in last 3:00 before they won with FG in OT, their ninth straight regular season win. Hawks ran for average of 169 ypg last three weeks, with mobile QB Wilson doing as much damage with his legs as his arm. Seattle is 3-2 in last five series games but lost two of three visits here; they’re 3-4 as road favorites under Carroll, 2-0 this year (won 12-7/23-20). Indy allowed one TD on 21 drives in sweeping road swing, including impressive 27-7 win at SF; they’re 7-4 as home dogs in post-Manning era, 8-2 SU at home under Pagano. Three of four Indy games stayed under the total. NFC South teams are 3-8 vs spread outside its division; NFC West teams are 7-4, 4-1 when favored. NFL-wide, non-divisional home underdogs are 9-6 vs spread this season.

Lions (3-1) @ Packers (1-2)—Green Bay won 14 of last 15 series games (Rodgers didn’t play in loss), taking last four by average score of 31-24; Lions have lost 22 games in a row in Wisconsin, 19 in row at Lambeau, with last three all by 7 or less points. Last Lion win at Lambeau was 1991. Pack won its last four post-bye games, scoring 31.5 ppg, but they’re 1-2 this season, despite scoring 11 TDs on 34 drives- they lost last game in Cincinnati on fumble return for TD by Bengals in last 4:00. Detroit scored 27+ points in all three of its wins; they’ve averaged 7.4+ yards/pass attempt in three of four games. Lions had four TDs last week; one by defense, other three on drives of 51 or less yards, so defense/special teams are creating easier chances for what is a good offense. Bush returned to spark run game (159 yards) last week (76.3/first three games). NFL-wide, divisional home favorites are 9-5 vs spread this year, 3-3 if spread is more than five points. All three Packer games went over the total.

Saints (4-0) @ Bears (3-1)—Curious to see Saints in second road (outdoor) game; offense was dominant (11 TDs/31 drives) in three home wins, but they were lucky to win 16-14 on stormy Week 2 day in Tampa, kicking three FGs on four trips in Bucs’ red zone, plus throwing a pick-6. Lack of running game (81.3 ypg) could hurt here by prolific Bear team scoring 31.8 ppg (9 TDs on last 37 drives, plus three defensive TDs in last three games). Chicago has 3+ takeaways in all four games (+5). NO is 9-5 in last 14 games where spread was 3 or less points, 6-4 in last ten non-divisional road games. Home side won last five series games with average total in last four, 51.3; Saints lost last6 three visits here by 25-8-3 points. NFC South road teams are 0-4 vs spread in non-divisional games; NFC North teams are 3-4-1 outside their division. All four Chicago games went over total, with average total, 60.3; three of four New Orleans games stayed under total.

Panthers (1-2) @ Cardinals (2-2)—Carolina won seven of last nine series games, winning four of last five visits here; Rivera is 0-2 in post-bye games, losing 30-2/19-14. Panthers are 5-14 in first half of season in his tenure, 9-7 in second half. Carolina’s two losses are by total of six points, as Bills drove length of field in last minute to nip Carolina 24-23 in its only road game. Arizona beat Detroit in its only home game, despite giving up a defensive TD; three of their four games were decided by 4 or less points. Cardinals 2-0 in games with spreads of 3 or less points this year, after being 4-10-1 in last 15 such games under Whisenhunt. NFC South non-divisional road teams are 0-4 vs spread this season; NFC West teams are 7-4 outside their division. Arizona struggled on offense (two TDs/24 drives) in splitting pair on road last two weeks; they’re 7-34 on 3rd down last three games, but Fitzgerald had strong half last week, as Redbirds rallied from 10-0 down at half to win at Tampa.

Chargers (2-2) @ Raiders (1-3)—San Diego won last three series games by 12-8-3 points; they’ve won eight of last nine visits here, with only loss in ’10. Three of Bolts’ four games were won by exactly three points; Rivers seems rejuvenated (25-50 on 3rd down, only two INTs), averaging 8.6/6.7/8.2 yards/pass attempt in last three games. Flynn was disappointing (18-31/217, two turnovers) in first Oakland start; Raiders are 3-7-1 in last 11 games as a home underdog- they’ve had only 13 plays of 20+ yards in first four games. Chargers scored 28+ points in three of four games, and lost fourth game in last minute in Nashville- they’re 7-12 in last 19 games as a road favorite. Divisional home dogs are 4-2 vs spread this season. Three of four Charger games went over total; three of four Oakland games stayed under. Game has been pushed back to 11:30 ET Sunday night because of time needed to switch from baseball configuration to football.

Broncos (4-0) @ Cowboys (2-2)—Dallas plays Tampa 2 defense which Colts ran when Dungy coached there, so Manning practiced against it for seven years; Rivers was 35-42/392 against Cowboys last week, what will #18 do here? Chargers averaged 8.2 yards/pass attempt vs Dallas, Eli Manning averaged 9.5 in opener; Pokes will need to play their A game to stay in this one. Denver is a juggernaut right now, scoring 39.8 ppg in first four games (20 TDs on 44 drives, only eight 3/outs, with three special teams TDs as well). Broncos wear defenses out; they’ve scored 31+ second half points in three of four games and have 13 TDs, one FG in 17 red zone drives. Dallas scored 67 points in winning its two home games this year; they’re 4-2 as home dogs since ’06, 2-1 under Garrett. Broncos are 7-2 as road favorites under Fox, 14-2 as favorites with Manning at QB. NFC East teams are 3-9 vs spread outside the division, 2-5 on road, 1-4 if getting points.

Texans (2-2) @ 49ers (2-2)—Schaub has thrown pick-6 in three straight games, including horrific one last week in last 3:00 while Houston was in Seattle territory nursing 20-13 lead; brutal loss for Texans, who led 20-3 at half and have struggled beating the better teams. Houston has only two TDs on 24 drives in last two games; they had 6-0 lead at Baltimore in Week 3 before giving up TDs on offense/special teams in 90-second span, so they’ve been beating themselves. 49ers scored 34-35 points in two wins, 3-7 in two losses; they turned ball over seven times (-6) in two losses. Niners are 12-4-1 as home favorites under Harbaugh, 1-1 this year. NFC West non-divisional favorites are 4-1 vs spread; AFC South teams are 3-8 outside the division, 2-4 on road, 2-4 as underdogs. Home side won only two games in series, with both games decided by FG. Non-divisional home favorites of 7+ points are 7-4 vs spread. Three of four Houston games went over the total.

Jets (2-2) @ Falcons (1-3)—Jets are making way too many mistakes to win, and its not all the rookie QB; they’ve turned ball over 12 times (-10) and in last three games, they committed 38 penalties for 300 yards, which helped create field position deficits of 16-9-18 yards. Two takeaways in four games ( none in last three games) isn’t good. Atlanta failed in last-minute red zone drives on offense in Weeks 1,4, on defense in Week 3, or else they could just as easily be 4-0; Smith is 19-5 vs spread coming off loss, but something is missing with Atlanta, which is 22-12-1 as home favorite under Smith. Would expect Atlanta to try and run ball more; they’ve run ball more than 16 times in only one of four games with Jackson out of lineup. Jets are 7-12 as road underdogs under Rex Ryan, 1-7 in last eight as a non-divisional road dog. Atlanta was torched (9.2/10.2 yards/attempt) by two quality QBs they faced (Brees/Brady) but Smith isn’t in that category—Falcons held Bradford/Tannehill to 6.4/4.9.

**Udog** · 10-05-2013, 10:28 PM

Where the action is: Broncos most popular play

Week 5 in the NFL features a slew of tight pointspreads and a few totals north of 50. We talk with sportsbooks about the biggest line adjustments, betting trends and where the odds will end up come kickoff Sunday.

New Orleans Saints at Chicago Bears - Open: -1, Move: +1

The Saints haven't won at Soldier Field since 2002 but are a very popular play heading into Sunday. Uncharacteristically, the Saints own a strong defense, as they displayed strength on that side of the ball against Miami one week ago.

"Chicago will need to get Jay Cutler playing better but the New Orleans pass rush will have a lot to say," Aron Black of Bet365 told Covers. "Close game to call, but New Orleans being flipped to small faves is probably right. This may go more to them as the Bears are being swerved so far."

New England Patriots at Cincinnati Bengals - Open: Pick, Move: +1.5

One of the handful of games that opened as a pick at various shops. The Patriots have essentially owned the Bengals over the years, winning seven of eight matchups and coming out victorious all four with Tom Brady. The Pats are always one of the most popular plays amongst public bettors and this week is no different.

"New England has been one of the best public teams in regular season play and this weekend the punters are showing faith in them with mostly all of our ATS and SU action on NE at pick or +1," Black said. "Cincy needs to find some better play from QB Andy Dalton, and limit turnovers, either way, if there is a coach who can find a way to beat a team, its Bill Belichick."

Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers - Open: -6.5, Move: -7.5

The Green Bay Packers look to extend their dominance over the Detroit Lions at Lambeau Field. The Lions haven't won in Wisconsin since 1991 and sharps and the betting public are both loving the Cheese in this NFC North matchup.

"Wiseguys and the heavy majority of betting public are both on the Pack, who opened -6.5 and are now -7.5," Mike Perry of Sportsbook.ag tells Covers. "We got sharp action on Green Bay -6.5 on Monday and on Friday we decided to move to -7.5 as 73 percent of cash on the number 7 was backing Green Bay."

Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants - Open: -3, Move: -2

A terrible start to the season both SU (0-4) and ATS (0-4) has bettors staying away from the Giants this week. Early sharp money on Philly had moved the line to under a field goal.

"Sharp play on the underdog Eagles at +3 on Tuesday caused us to move to New York -2," Perry said. "Seventy percent of cash is coming in on the Eagles. Giants are 0-4 ATS this season."

Jacksonville Jaguars at St. Louis Rams - Open: 41.5, Move: 41

Talk about a snoozer. Both of these squads don't have much to offer on either side of the ball, especially on offense. Not the most appealing of matchups, but bettors are backing the under between these two anemic offenses.

"The under is getting played here as this game could be painful to watch, and a battle of who can run the ball less," says Black. "St. Louis has looked very ordinary and were not offering much offensively last week, but Jacksonville has been just plain awful."

Denver Broncos at Dallas Cowboys - Open: -7, Move: -9

The Broncos are one of four teams (Seattle, San Diego and Tennessee) to not suffer an ATS defeat thus far on the season and are being backed rigorously. They opened as TD faves at Dallas, but were rapidly bet up to -9.

"Being one of only two games that kickoff around 4 p.m. ET, this game has a good chance to be the biggest decision for the shop on Sunday," says Perry. "Denver opened -7 and quickly went to -9. Seventy-nine percent of cash on Broncos."

Aron Black suggests Cowboys' backers should hold off and wait until closer to kickoff.

"Those who have faith in Dallas are probably best to wait as most likely this line goes to Denver before Sunday," he says. "Of all games we have this week, Denver is the most popular play - ATS, fave, dog or otherwise.

**Udog** · 10-05-2013, 10:40 PM

NFL

Sunday, October 6

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Sunday's NFL Week 5 betting cheat sheet: Early action
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New England Patriots at Cincinnati Bengals (-1, 45)

New England has not won its first five games since running the table in its 16-0 season of 2007, but it will have to overcome a major injury. Pro Bowl nose tackle Vince Wilfork was lost for the season with a torn right Achilles' tendon.

Cincinnati managed only 266 total yards in the loss to Cleveland but will likely make a concerted effort to get the ground game going to exploit the absence of the massive Wilford in the middle. Former Patriot BenJarvus Green-Ellis is averaging a paltry 2.7 yards per carry and could be supplanted soon by rookie Giovani Bernard, who averages 4.6 yards a pop and has 10 catches the past two weeks.

LINE: Opened pick and moved to Bengals -1. Total steady at 45.
WEATHER: Low 70s, 77% chance of thunder showers, winds SW 8 mph.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: New England (-6.0) - Cincinnati (-1.5) + home field (-3.0) = Patriots -1.5
TRENDS:

* Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
* Patriots are 15-7 ATS in their last 22 road games.
* Under is 10-3 in Bengals last 13 games overall.

Detroit Lions at Green Bay Packers (-7.5, 53.5)

The Lions have scored 122 points, putting them third in the league behind Denver (179) and Chicago (127). Detroit QB Matthew Stafford and WR Calvin Johnson both set career highs at Green Bay on Jan. 1, 2012. Stafford passed for 520 yards while Johnson had 244 yards receiving.

Green Bay, which is coming off its bye week, has won 22 consecutive home meetings with Detroit and 14 of the last 15 overall matchups. The Lions have not been victorious in Green Bay since Dec. 15, 1991. Aaron Rodgers is undefeated against Detroit in eight career starts with a minimum of 15 passing attempts, going 169-of-246 for 2,239 yards and 18 touchdowns with only four interceptions.

LINE: Opened Packers -7.5. Total moved 52 to 53.5.
WEATHER: Mid 50s, 21% chance of rain, winds WSW 8 mph.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Detroit (-1.0) - Green Bay (-5.0) + home field (-3.0) = Packers -7
TRENDS:

* Under is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
* Favorite is 9-4 ATS in their last 13 meetings.
* Lions are 4-11-1 ATS in their last 16 meetings in Green Bay.

Seattle Seahawks at Indianapolis Colts (+1, 43.5)

Seattle leads the NFC with a plus-seven turnover differential and has notched multiple interceptions in three consecutive games. The Seahawks hope to have defensive end Michael Bennett (2.5 sacks) available after he was removed from the field via stretcher with a back injury against Houston.

Veteran sack master Robert Mathis is wreaking havoc after a three-sack outing against the Jaguars and is tied for the NFL lead with 7.5. Indianapolis has a plus-six margin in takeaways and is allowing 12.8 points per game, fourth-best in the NFL.

LINE: Opening Seattle -2.5 and moved to -1. Total moved 43 to 43.5.
WEATHER: N/A
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Seattle (-8.0) - Indianapolis (-2.5) + home field (-3.0) = Seahawks -2.5
TRENDS:

* Seahawks are 6-0 ATS in their last six road games.
* Colts are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 home games.
* Under is 22-8 in Colts last 30 games overall.

Baltimore Ravens at Miami Dolphins (-2.5, 43.5)

Pro Bowler Ray Rice has been held in check this season, rushing for just 89 yards on 30 carries. While Rice's numbers have dipped, wideout Torrey Smith continues to benefit from the departure of Anquan Boldin to San Francisco by amassing a career-high 166 yards and a touchdown in last week's loss to the Bills.

While Ravens QB Joe Flacco has been sacked 12 times, that number pales in comparison to the league-high 18 that Miami QB Ryan Tannehill has endured. While coach Joe Philbin dismisses the premise of a disconnect between Tannehill and offseason addition Mike Wallace, there is no denying that the two have struggled to get on the same page. The electric and outspoken wideout has just 15 receptions for 176 yards this season

LINE: Opening Miami -3.5 and moved to -2.5. Total moved 42.5 to 43.5.
WEATHER: Mid 80s, 30% chance of thunder showers, winds SSE 11 mph.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Baltimore (-0.5) - Miami (0.0) + home field (-3.0) = Dolphins -2.5
TRENDS:

* Under is 5-2 in the last seven meetings in Miami.
* Under is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings.
* Dolphins are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games.

New Orleans Saints at Chicago Bears (Pick, 48.5)

While the Saints' offense has been garnering the headlines, the defense quietly has been much improved under new coordinator Rob Ryan, ranking sixth in yards allowed (304.5 per game) and fifth in points (13.8). QB Drew Brees has never won in Chicago, throwing for seven TDs and six interceptions in four career games there.

Jay Cutler is coming off a four-turnover performance in a 40-32 loss at Detroit. Despite the four turnovers at Detroit, Cutler rallied the team from a 40-16 deficit to make it a one-possession game late in the contest. He has a career-high 64.2 completion percentage under new coordinator Aaron Kromer — who was the Saints' interim coach for six games last season.

LINE: Opened pick and moved to Bears +1 at some books. Total moved 47.5 to 48.5.
WEATHER: Mid 50s, 17% chance of rain, winds W 14 mph
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: New Orleans (-5.5) - Chicago (-2.0) + home field (-3.0) = Saints -0.5
TRENDS:

* Over is 5-0 in the last five meetings in Chicago.
* Home team is 4-0-2 ATS in their last six meetings.
* Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.

Philadelphia Eagles at New York Giants (-1, 53)

Giants QB Eli Manning is leading the league with nine interceptions through four games. Some of that is due to poor pass protection. David Diehl is scheduled to make his first start of the season at right guard. The Giants are dealing with injuries on the defensive side, with tackles Linval Joseph, Cullen Jenkins and Shaun Rogers, cornerbacks Corey Webster, Jayron Hosley and Aaron Ross all dealing with injuries.

Michael Vick started out strong for Kelly in the first two weeks with a total of eight touchdowns but slumped to a combined 27-for-57 for 449 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions in the last two weeks. The Eagles insist they are moving forward defensively and will get a chance to prove that against turnover-prone New York.

LINE: Opened New York -2.5 and moved to -1. Total moved 55 to 53.
WEATHER: Mid 70s, 19% chance of rain, winds SSE 6 mph.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Philadelphia (+2.0) - New York (+5.0) + home field (-3.0) = Pick
TRENDS:

* Eagles are 7-2-1 ATS in their last 10 meetings.
* Under is 11-5 in the last 16 meetings in New York.
* Underdog is 13-3-1 ATS in their last 17 meetings.

Kansas City Chiefs at Tennessee Titans (+2.5, 38.5)

Several factors have contributed into the Chiefs' stunning start to the season, but strong second-half performances are at the top of the list. Kansas City is outscoring opponents 34-10 after the break, and has put together clock-killing drives in the fourth quarter of each of its last three games to protect slim leads.

Titans QB Ryan Fitzpatrick has been thrust into the No. 1 role after regular starter Jake Locker suffered a hip injury in the win over the Jets and will miss several weeks. Fitzpatrick appeared in 55 games with the Buffalo Bills before being cut in March, showing that the 30-year-old is no stranger to the starting role.

LINE: Opened Chiefs -3 and moved to -2.5. Total moved 39 to 38.5.
WEATHER: Low 70s, 79% chance of rain, winds SSW 9 mph.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Kansas City (-2.5) + Tennessee (+1.0) + home field (-3.0) = Chiefs -0.5
TRENDS:

* Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings.
* Road team is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Titans are 4-0-1 ATS in their last five games overall.

Jacksonville Jaguars at St. Louis Rams (-11.5, 41)

The Jaguars rank last in the NFL in scoring and 30th in scoring defense. Among the positives on the Jacksonville side this week is the return of standout wide receiver Justin Blackmon, who was suspended for the first four games of the season for violating the league's substance abuse policy.

St. Louis is the only team in the NFL with a worse rushing attack than Jacksonville, as the Rams average only 47.3 yards on the ground. With virtually no complimentary ground game against the 49ers, Sam Bradford completed only 19-of-41 passes, was sacked five times and turned the ball over twice.

LINE: Opened Rams -14 and moved to -11.5. Total moved 42 to 41.
WEATHER: N/A
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Jacksonville (+11.0) - St. Louis (+6.5) + home field (-3.0) = Rams -7.5
TRENDS:

* Jaguars are 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall.
* Rams are 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games.
* Over is 6-1 in Rams last seven home games.

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**Udog** · 10-05-2013, 10:53 PM

NFL

Sunday, October 6

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Sunday's NFL Week 5 betting cheat sheet: Late action
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Carolina Panthers at Arizona Cardinals (+1, 41.5)

After losing its first two games by a total of six points, Carolina turned in a dominant performance against the Giants, rolling up 402 total yards and holding New York to 150. Williams has rushed for 417 yards and two TDs in four meetings with Arizona, including three 100-yard games.

The Arizona defense has been dominant against the run - ranking second in the league - but will have its work cut out against a Panthers team averaging 151 yards on the ground, though unit should be bolstered by the return of linebacker Daryl Washington after he missed the first four games for violating the league's substance abuse policy.

LINE: Opened pick and moved to Arizona +1. Total moved 42 to 41.5.
WEATHER: N/A
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Carolina (+2.0) - Arizona (+4.0) + home field (-3.0) = Cardinals -1
TRENDS:

* Road team is 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings.
* Panthers are 6-2 ATS in their last eight road games.
* Cardinals are 2-5 ATS in their last seven home games.

Denver Broncos at Dallas Cowboys (+7.5, 56)

Denver is putting up 44.8 points and nearly 500 yards of offense. That offense is masking some potential issues on the other side of the ball, where the Broncos rank in the bottom third of the league in total defense. The Broncos have won 15 consecutive regular-season games, each by seven points or more.

Dallas is down two defensive starters in linebacker Justin Durant (groin) and defensive end George Selvie (concussion), who are uncertain for Sunday’s game. That puts even more pressure on Tony Romo and the offense to put up points. Romo is completing 72.4 percent of his passes with eight touchdowns and one interception but could be missing WR Miles Austin (hamstring) questionable.

LINE: Opened Denver -7 and moved as high as -8.5. Total moved 54 to 56.
WEATHER: N/A
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Denver (-9.5) - Dallas (-2.0) + home field (-3.0) = Broncos -4.5
TRENDS:

* Broncos are 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
* Cowboys are 3-10 ATS in their last 13 home games.

Houston Texans at San Francisco 49ers (-6, 41.5)

Houston ranks second in the AFC in total offense (410.3 yards per game) and leads the NFL in total defense (254.3) but is minus-4 in turnover margin. The Texans expect linebacker Brian Cushing to clear the concussion protocol on Friday and be eligible to play after leaving last week's game in the third quarter.

Colin Kaepernick has been limited in the ground game but rebounded from a pair of poor passing games to throw two touchdown passes against St. Louis. The 49ers lead the NFC in total defense (299.8 yards per game) despite playing without star linebacker Patrick Willis (groin) last week, but they plan to have Willis back Sunday.

LINE: Opened Houston -6.5 and moved to -6. Total moved 42.5 to 41.5.
WEATHER: Mid 60s, clear skies, winds W 6 mph.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: Houston (-1.5) - San Francisco (-4.0) + home field (-3.0) = 49ers -5.5
TRENDS:

* Texans are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games.
* 49ers are 16-7-1 ATS in their last 24 home games.
* Over is 7-1 in 49ers last eight home games.

San Diego Chargers at Oakland Raiders (+4, 45)

San Diego and its already-suspect defense lost linebacker Dwight Freeney for the rest of the season with a torn quadriceps last week. Despite missing WR Malcom Floyd (neck), QB Philip Rivers and the passing game is ranked fifth in the NFL as receiver Eddie Royal (five) and tight end Antonio Gates (two) have already combined for seven receiving touchdowns.

Raiders RB Darren McFadden is questionable with a hamstring injury and RB Marcel Reece is listed as doubtful with a knee injury. Their possible absence will force third-stringer Rashad Jennings into action and put a bigger onus on the unproven shoulders of Pryor, who was fairly impressive throwing for 624 yards and rushing for 198 more in his first three starts of the season.

LINE: Opened Chargers -6 and moved to -4. Total moved 44 to 45.
WEATHER: Mid 60s, clear skies, winds W 2 mph.
COVERS POWER RANKINGS: San Diego (0.0) + Oakland (+6.0) + home field (-3.0) = Chargers -3
TRENDS:

* Over is 5-1 in the last six meetings in Oakland.
* Underdog is 8-0 ATS in their last eight meetings.
* Road team is 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings.

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Announcement

NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 5 (Thursday, October 3 - Monday, October 7)

NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 5 (Thursday, October 3 - Monday, October 7)

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