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Armadillo's Write-Up
Week 2
Chargers (0-1) @ Eagles (1-0)—Both teams played Monday, but Chargers blew 28-7 lead and lost at home; Iggles are off road divisional win at Washington, when they ran ball for 263 yards and had 53 offensive plays, just in first half. San Diego ran 51 plays in the whole game Monday. Since ’08, Chargers are 12-8-1 as road dogs; they’ve lost three of four visits here, losing by 16-10-3, with only win in ’95, as home teams won eight of last nine series games. Philly defense forced five 3/outs vs offense with rusty QB who hadn’t played in preseason, which helped them get a 19-yard advantage in average field position, a huge edge. Eagles are 6-12 as home favorites last three years, 1-6 as non-divisional HF last two years- they were 0-8 vs spread at home LY, when it was obvious Reid wasn’t coming back as HC. Eagles covered once in last five games as a favorite in their home opener.
Browns (0-1) @ Ravens (0-1)—Baltimore won last ten series games, with seven of 10 wins by 10+ points; Browns are 3-11 here, losing last five, with three of those five by 7 or less points. Ravens had three extra days to prepare after giving up 445 passing yards and seven TDs in Thursday night opener; they’ve won last eight home openers (6-2 vs spread), with over 6-1-1 in those eight games. Over is 9-3 in Browns’ last 12 road openers. Baltimore is 4-9-1 as divisional home favorite under Harbaugh, who is replacing defensive leaders Lewis/Reed off LY’s Super Bowl champs. Browns threw 53 passes last week, ran it only 13 times in 23-10 loss where they outgained Miami; would expect both sides to try and run more here, since Flacco threw 63 passes last week. Since ’07, Cleveland is 9-6-1 as a divisional road dog. Over last decade, teams that lost Thursday night opener are xx-xx in their Week 2 games.
Titans (1-0) @ Texans (1-0)—Houston rallied from down 28-7 to win at San Diego late Monday night, using no-huddle offense and defensive TD by Cushing to forge unlikely comeback; Texans won six of last eight series games, winning 38-24/24-10 LY, just their second series sweep in last 11 years. Titans are 2-3 in last five visits to their old home (Titans used to be Houston Oilers); five of their last seven visits here were decided by 3 or less points, or in OT. Texans won last three home openers by 10-27-20 points; six of their last eight home openers stayed under total. Titans held Pitt to 32 yards rushing, forced five 3/outs on ten drives last week and had whopping 21-yard edge in average field position- they’re 7-6 as a road dog under Munchak. Look for Texans to get Foster more involved in running game; Tate played lot down stretch Monday. Houston is 6-1 as divisional home favorite last three years.
Dolphins (1-0) @ Colts (1-0)— Indy was outgained by 98 yards last week- they had trouble with mobile QB Pryor, who had most of Oakland’s 171 rushing yards, but Dolphins don’t have QB like Pryor. Last week was Miami’s first cover in last five road games; they ran ball for only 20 yards, but since 2004, Dolphins are 28-12-2 as non-divisional road dogs. Indy won last four series games, but all four were decided by six or less points. Dolphins lost last two visits here 27-22/23-20; LY, they beat Miami 23-20 (+1.5), with 419 passing yards, outgaining Fish by 151 yards. Colts covered eight of last 11 home games; they’re 3-2 as home favorites with Luck at QB. Miami was very good on third down last week, converting 8-16 chances, holding Browns to 1-14, but they had only one play of 20+ yards- league average was 3.97 per team. Dolphins were +2 in turnovers last week, good news after being -36 over last four years.
Panthers (0-1) @ Bills (0-1)—Since 2007, Carolina is surprisingly good 7-2 as road favorite; they’re 5-3 vs spread vs AFC teams under Rivera. Buffalo covered four of last six games as home dog; in last eight years, they’re 11-18-3 in last 32 games vs NFC teams. Panthers outrushed Seattle 124-70 last week, but had only 119 passing yards and one play of 20+ yards- Newton lost road opener by 7-6 points in his first two NFL seasons. Buffalo was outgained 431-286 by Patriots, had ten penalties for 75 yards, which led to Pats having 8-yard advantage in average field position- NE converted 11-20 on 3rd down- their only two TD drives were just 16-32 yards. Bills won four of five series games, winning two of three played here- Carolina last visited here in ’05. Panthers lost last four road openers (0-4 vs spread), losing by average score of 26-17.
Rams (1-0) @ Falcons (0-1)—Steven Jackson faces his old teammates in his Atlanta home opener; Falcons are 21-11-1 as home favorites under Smith, 13-4 in last 17 as non-divisional HF. Atlanta lost 23-17 in Superdome last week, as last drive ended on Saints’ 3-yard line; they were just 3-11 on 3rd down. Rams came back from 11 down to nip Arizona 27-24 at gun, despite a hideous pick-6 by Bradford and four personal foul penalties. Rams did average 7.9 yards per pass attempt as new TE Cook (141 rec yards) proved to be potent weapon. In his last six seasons as a HC, Fisher is 22-10-1 vs spread as a road dog; Rams were 7-1 in that role LY, with only one road loss (23-6 at Chicago) by more than seven points. Rams lost last 11 road openers, going 2-5 vs spread in last seven as dog in AO. Five of Rams’ last seven road openers stayed under the total.
Redskins (0-1) @ Packers (0-1)—RGIII looked rusty in first half Monday, little sharper in second but game was mostly out of reach by then; Washington seemed unprepared for Philly’s fast-paced offense, now they’re travelling on short week, playing team that scored four TDs at Candlestick last week, but also had six 3/outs that led to 13-yard deficit in average field position. Green Bay covered five of last six home openers, four of five when favored; over last four years, they’re 20-10 as home favorites, 12-5 as non-divisional HF. Packers won four of last five series games; Redskins lost last three visits here by combined score of 84-23, with their last visit here in ’07- they lost four of last five road openers, but covered four of last five as an underdog in AO’s. Washington is 13-7 vs spread as a road underdog under Shanahan.
Cowboys (1-0) @ Chiefs (1-0)—Solid KC debut for Andy Reid, holding Jaguars without TD in 28-2 win; Chiefs have struggled in home openers, losing four of last five, going 0-4-1 as favorites. Since 2007, Chiefs are 3-14-1 as home faves; Reid was 9-15 as home favorite his last four years in Philly. Dallas was outgained 478-331 last week, partially because they had two pick-6’s which gave Giants two extra possessions; Romo’s ribs are issue here, he played second half in pain Sunday night. Cowboys are 4-2 in last six road openers, covering five of the six games. Pokes won six of nine against Chiefs, winning last two meetings by FG each; they’ve split four visits to Arrowhead. Reid lost six of his last nine games vs Dallas while coaching Eagles. Cowboys are 8-4 as road dogs under Garrett. Over last 22 years, under is 17-3-2 in Chiefs’ home openers; 12 of last 16 Dallas road openers went over.
Vikings (0-1) @ Bears (1-0)—Chicago won six of last seven series games, with four of last five wins by 14+ points; Vikings lost last five visits here, losing 39-10/28-10 here last two years. Peterson had 78-yard TD run on first play last week, then had 15 yards on 17 carries rest of game; until Ponder can present legit threat in passing game, defenses will stack up against Viking run game, especially with FB Felton suspended for first four games. Bears are 6-10-1 in last 17 games as home favorites, but over last four years, they’re 4-2 as divisional HF. Since ’08, Vikings are 3-8 as divisional road dogs, 2-5 under former Bear Frazier, who is 1-3 coaching against his old team. Last week, Chicago had three takeaways (+2) and was 3-3 scoring TDs in red zone- they had 14-yard edge in average field position. Vikings allowed 469 yards in Detroit, 352 thru air (8.0 yards/attempt).
Saints (1-0) @ Bucs (0-1)—Payton’s return to sideline last week was success, thanks to last-minute goal-line stand; Saints are 15-12 as road favorite under Payton, 6-5 in divisional games. Brees averaged 9.2 yards/pass attempt last week. Over last four years, Bucs are 3-12-1 as home underdog, 2-5-1 vs NFC South foes. Tampa was all set for road win to start season last week until needless personal foul on last play put Jets in position to kick game-winning FG, tough way to start season; they had 13 penalties for 102 yards, lost to rookie QB, now they’re facing one of NFL’s best. Bucs lost last three games with Saints, including 41-0 debacle in last meeting at Superdome LY, when Bucs gained 367 yards but were -5 in turnovers. Saints won three of last four visits here; they’re 2-4 in last six road openers, with last five going over total. Tampa Bay is 5-3 in last eight home openers, with under 6-3-1 in their last ten.
Lions (1-0) @ Cardinals (0-1)—Arizona was 30-18 SU at home in Whisenhunt era; not sure I would’ve fired only coach to bring me to Super Bowl, but that’s me. Home side won nine of last ten series games, with eight of ten totals 42+; Redbirds won last four series games by average score of 29-16- they scored 31+ in last three meetings. Lions lost last six visits here- their last win in desert was 20 years ago; they’re 3-10 in last 13 road openers- under is 6-1-1 in last eight road openers. Arizona won five of last six home openers, with five of last seven going over total- they had 24-13 lead in second half at St Louis last week before losing at gun- Arians’ offense was 7-14 on 3rd down, averaged 6.9 yards per pass attempt, but was hurt by 10-yard deficit in average field position. Lions had four takeaways last week (+2), outgained Vikings 469-330 as Stafford passed for 352 yards.
Jaguars (0-1) @ Raiders (0-1)— New QB Pryor was better than expected in opener at Indy last week, throwing for 217 yards, running for 112 more and converting 7-13 on 3rd down in narrow 21-17 loss, but Oakland has lost six of last eight home openers, going 0-5 vs spread as a favorite. Over last decade, Raiders are 9-23 vs spread as home favorites, 7-15 in non-divisional games. Jaguars lost last five road openers, but they’re 7-3 vs spread as dog in AO; Jax is 15-20 as road dogs last five years, but Bradley is also their third HC in three years, so not sure how much trends mean with them. Oakland outgained Colts by 98 yards but -2 turnover ratio did them in; still impressed by 7-13 on 3rd down with basically a rookie QB. Not only did Jax offense get shut out last week, only one of four KC TDs came on a drive longer than 24 yards. Jags won four of six in series, splitting four visits here; average total in last three meetings is 66.
Broncos (1-0) @ Giants (0-1)— Probably last Manning Bowl, unless teams meet in Super Bowl; Denver had 3+ extra days to prepare after gaining 510 yards vs Ravens in 49-27 opening win, but over last eight years, teams that won mid-week season opener are 3-5 SU, 1-7 vs spread in Week 2 game. Home side won last five series games; Broncos lost four of last five here vs Giants, with last three losses by total of 8 points. Denver is 13-6-1 as favorite under Fox, 6-2 on foreign soil, 5-1 outside division. Giants are home dog for just 4th time in last five years; since ’07, they’re 4-2 vs spread as a home dog. Hard to tell awful lot about Giant defense after offense gave up two TDs and Romo played second half with damaged ribs. Broncos lost last three road openers, by 7-3-6 points; under is 8-2-1 in their last 11 road openers. Giants won four of last five home openers, with three of last four going over.
49ers (1-0) @ Seahawks (1-0)—This has become intense rivalry because coaches don’t like each other; Harbaugh once upset Carroll as a 42-point dog in Stanford-USC days. Seattle is 17-7 vs spread at home under Carroll; Niners are 10-6 on road under Harbaugh. 49ers won four of last five in series where home teams won seven of last eight; Niners lost three of last four in Seattle, losing by 3-25-29 points. Seattle outgained Panthers by 127 yards last week, but 109 penalty yards and lousy red zone offense (6 points on 3 trips) held them back in 12-7 nailbiter (Panthers fumbled on Seattle 8 with 5:25 left). 49ers were +2 in turnovers, 9-18 on 3rd down but also had 85 yards in penalties as they held off Pack 34-28- three of their four TD drives were 80+ yards, as WR Boldin had big day in SF debut. Niners won five of last six road openers, covered six of last seven, with over 6-3-1 in their last 10. Hawks won four in row, nine of last ten home openers, with under 10-1-1 in their last 12. In Carroll era, Seattle is just 1-5 as favorite of 3 or less points.
Steelers (0-1) @ Bengals (0-1)—This is most points Bengals have been favored by over Pitt since 1989, but with C Pouncey out for year, heart/soul of Steeler OL is gone. Steelers won five of last six games in series where six of last eight games were decided by 7 or less points. Pitt won last three visits here, by 6-7-7 points- they’re 9-7 as road dog under Tomlin, but 5-6 in divisional games. Since ’08, Cincy has been consistent money burner as HF, going 6-15-1 vs spread, 4-11 in division games. Pitt offense didn’t score until last 2:00 at home last week, gaining 195 yards, running for 32- they went 3/out five of 10 drives, leading to huge 21-yard deficit in average field position. Bengals averaged 8.1/pass attempt, outgained Bears, but were -2 in turnovers and came up short- they started eight of ten drives 80+ yards from goal line, also going 3/out on five of 10 drives. Bengals are 0-3-1 in last four tries as favorite in home opener; Steelers are 2-4 in last six road openers, scoring 19 or less points in all six games. Over last five years, Bengals are 14-21-3 vs spread in game following a loss; over last three years, Steelers are 11-4-1 vs spread in same role.
Armadillo's Write-Up
Week 2
Chargers (0-1) @ Eagles (1-0)—Both teams played Monday, but Chargers blew 28-7 lead and lost at home; Iggles are off road divisional win at Washington, when they ran ball for 263 yards and had 53 offensive plays, just in first half. San Diego ran 51 plays in the whole game Monday. Since ’08, Chargers are 12-8-1 as road dogs; they’ve lost three of four visits here, losing by 16-10-3, with only win in ’95, as home teams won eight of last nine series games. Philly defense forced five 3/outs vs offense with rusty QB who hadn’t played in preseason, which helped them get a 19-yard advantage in average field position, a huge edge. Eagles are 6-12 as home favorites last three years, 1-6 as non-divisional HF last two years- they were 0-8 vs spread at home LY, when it was obvious Reid wasn’t coming back as HC. Eagles covered once in last five games as a favorite in their home opener.
Browns (0-1) @ Ravens (0-1)—Baltimore won last ten series games, with seven of 10 wins by 10+ points; Browns are 3-11 here, losing last five, with three of those five by 7 or less points. Ravens had three extra days to prepare after giving up 445 passing yards and seven TDs in Thursday night opener; they’ve won last eight home openers (6-2 vs spread), with over 6-1-1 in those eight games. Over is 9-3 in Browns’ last 12 road openers. Baltimore is 4-9-1 as divisional home favorite under Harbaugh, who is replacing defensive leaders Lewis/Reed off LY’s Super Bowl champs. Browns threw 53 passes last week, ran it only 13 times in 23-10 loss where they outgained Miami; would expect both sides to try and run more here, since Flacco threw 63 passes last week. Since ’07, Cleveland is 9-6-1 as a divisional road dog. Over last decade, teams that lost Thursday night opener are xx-xx in their Week 2 games.
Titans (1-0) @ Texans (1-0)—Houston rallied from down 28-7 to win at San Diego late Monday night, using no-huddle offense and defensive TD by Cushing to forge unlikely comeback; Texans won six of last eight series games, winning 38-24/24-10 LY, just their second series sweep in last 11 years. Titans are 2-3 in last five visits to their old home (Titans used to be Houston Oilers); five of their last seven visits here were decided by 3 or less points, or in OT. Texans won last three home openers by 10-27-20 points; six of their last eight home openers stayed under total. Titans held Pitt to 32 yards rushing, forced five 3/outs on ten drives last week and had whopping 21-yard edge in average field position- they’re 7-6 as a road dog under Munchak. Look for Texans to get Foster more involved in running game; Tate played lot down stretch Monday. Houston is 6-1 as divisional home favorite last three years.
Dolphins (1-0) @ Colts (1-0)— Indy was outgained by 98 yards last week- they had trouble with mobile QB Pryor, who had most of Oakland’s 171 rushing yards, but Dolphins don’t have QB like Pryor. Last week was Miami’s first cover in last five road games; they ran ball for only 20 yards, but since 2004, Dolphins are 28-12-2 as non-divisional road dogs. Indy won last four series games, but all four were decided by six or less points. Dolphins lost last two visits here 27-22/23-20; LY, they beat Miami 23-20 (+1.5), with 419 passing yards, outgaining Fish by 151 yards. Colts covered eight of last 11 home games; they’re 3-2 as home favorites with Luck at QB. Miami was very good on third down last week, converting 8-16 chances, holding Browns to 1-14, but they had only one play of 20+ yards- league average was 3.97 per team. Dolphins were +2 in turnovers last week, good news after being -36 over last four years.
Panthers (0-1) @ Bills (0-1)—Since 2007, Carolina is surprisingly good 7-2 as road favorite; they’re 5-3 vs spread vs AFC teams under Rivera. Buffalo covered four of last six games as home dog; in last eight years, they’re 11-18-3 in last 32 games vs NFC teams. Panthers outrushed Seattle 124-70 last week, but had only 119 passing yards and one play of 20+ yards- Newton lost road opener by 7-6 points in his first two NFL seasons. Buffalo was outgained 431-286 by Patriots, had ten penalties for 75 yards, which led to Pats having 8-yard advantage in average field position- NE converted 11-20 on 3rd down- their only two TD drives were just 16-32 yards. Bills won four of five series games, winning two of three played here- Carolina last visited here in ’05. Panthers lost last four road openers (0-4 vs spread), losing by average score of 26-17.
Rams (1-0) @ Falcons (0-1)—Steven Jackson faces his old teammates in his Atlanta home opener; Falcons are 21-11-1 as home favorites under Smith, 13-4 in last 17 as non-divisional HF. Atlanta lost 23-17 in Superdome last week, as last drive ended on Saints’ 3-yard line; they were just 3-11 on 3rd down. Rams came back from 11 down to nip Arizona 27-24 at gun, despite a hideous pick-6 by Bradford and four personal foul penalties. Rams did average 7.9 yards per pass attempt as new TE Cook (141 rec yards) proved to be potent weapon. In his last six seasons as a HC, Fisher is 22-10-1 vs spread as a road dog; Rams were 7-1 in that role LY, with only one road loss (23-6 at Chicago) by more than seven points. Rams lost last 11 road openers, going 2-5 vs spread in last seven as dog in AO. Five of Rams’ last seven road openers stayed under the total.
Redskins (0-1) @ Packers (0-1)—RGIII looked rusty in first half Monday, little sharper in second but game was mostly out of reach by then; Washington seemed unprepared for Philly’s fast-paced offense, now they’re travelling on short week, playing team that scored four TDs at Candlestick last week, but also had six 3/outs that led to 13-yard deficit in average field position. Green Bay covered five of last six home openers, four of five when favored; over last four years, they’re 20-10 as home favorites, 12-5 as non-divisional HF. Packers won four of last five series games; Redskins lost last three visits here by combined score of 84-23, with their last visit here in ’07- they lost four of last five road openers, but covered four of last five as an underdog in AO’s. Washington is 13-7 vs spread as a road underdog under Shanahan.
Cowboys (1-0) @ Chiefs (1-0)—Solid KC debut for Andy Reid, holding Jaguars without TD in 28-2 win; Chiefs have struggled in home openers, losing four of last five, going 0-4-1 as favorites. Since 2007, Chiefs are 3-14-1 as home faves; Reid was 9-15 as home favorite his last four years in Philly. Dallas was outgained 478-331 last week, partially because they had two pick-6’s which gave Giants two extra possessions; Romo’s ribs are issue here, he played second half in pain Sunday night. Cowboys are 4-2 in last six road openers, covering five of the six games. Pokes won six of nine against Chiefs, winning last two meetings by FG each; they’ve split four visits to Arrowhead. Reid lost six of his last nine games vs Dallas while coaching Eagles. Cowboys are 8-4 as road dogs under Garrett. Over last 22 years, under is 17-3-2 in Chiefs’ home openers; 12 of last 16 Dallas road openers went over.
Vikings (0-1) @ Bears (1-0)—Chicago won six of last seven series games, with four of last five wins by 14+ points; Vikings lost last five visits here, losing 39-10/28-10 here last two years. Peterson had 78-yard TD run on first play last week, then had 15 yards on 17 carries rest of game; until Ponder can present legit threat in passing game, defenses will stack up against Viking run game, especially with FB Felton suspended for first four games. Bears are 6-10-1 in last 17 games as home favorites, but over last four years, they’re 4-2 as divisional HF. Since ’08, Vikings are 3-8 as divisional road dogs, 2-5 under former Bear Frazier, who is 1-3 coaching against his old team. Last week, Chicago had three takeaways (+2) and was 3-3 scoring TDs in red zone- they had 14-yard edge in average field position. Vikings allowed 469 yards in Detroit, 352 thru air (8.0 yards/attempt).
Saints (1-0) @ Bucs (0-1)—Payton’s return to sideline last week was success, thanks to last-minute goal-line stand; Saints are 15-12 as road favorite under Payton, 6-5 in divisional games. Brees averaged 9.2 yards/pass attempt last week. Over last four years, Bucs are 3-12-1 as home underdog, 2-5-1 vs NFC South foes. Tampa was all set for road win to start season last week until needless personal foul on last play put Jets in position to kick game-winning FG, tough way to start season; they had 13 penalties for 102 yards, lost to rookie QB, now they’re facing one of NFL’s best. Bucs lost last three games with Saints, including 41-0 debacle in last meeting at Superdome LY, when Bucs gained 367 yards but were -5 in turnovers. Saints won three of last four visits here; they’re 2-4 in last six road openers, with last five going over total. Tampa Bay is 5-3 in last eight home openers, with under 6-3-1 in their last ten.
Lions (1-0) @ Cardinals (0-1)—Arizona was 30-18 SU at home in Whisenhunt era; not sure I would’ve fired only coach to bring me to Super Bowl, but that’s me. Home side won nine of last ten series games, with eight of ten totals 42+; Redbirds won last four series games by average score of 29-16- they scored 31+ in last three meetings. Lions lost last six visits here- their last win in desert was 20 years ago; they’re 3-10 in last 13 road openers- under is 6-1-1 in last eight road openers. Arizona won five of last six home openers, with five of last seven going over total- they had 24-13 lead in second half at St Louis last week before losing at gun- Arians’ offense was 7-14 on 3rd down, averaged 6.9 yards per pass attempt, but was hurt by 10-yard deficit in average field position. Lions had four takeaways last week (+2), outgained Vikings 469-330 as Stafford passed for 352 yards.
Jaguars (0-1) @ Raiders (0-1)— New QB Pryor was better than expected in opener at Indy last week, throwing for 217 yards, running for 112 more and converting 7-13 on 3rd down in narrow 21-17 loss, but Oakland has lost six of last eight home openers, going 0-5 vs spread as a favorite. Over last decade, Raiders are 9-23 vs spread as home favorites, 7-15 in non-divisional games. Jaguars lost last five road openers, but they’re 7-3 vs spread as dog in AO; Jax is 15-20 as road dogs last five years, but Bradley is also their third HC in three years, so not sure how much trends mean with them. Oakland outgained Colts by 98 yards but -2 turnover ratio did them in; still impressed by 7-13 on 3rd down with basically a rookie QB. Not only did Jax offense get shut out last week, only one of four KC TDs came on a drive longer than 24 yards. Jags won four of six in series, splitting four visits here; average total in last three meetings is 66.
Broncos (1-0) @ Giants (0-1)— Probably last Manning Bowl, unless teams meet in Super Bowl; Denver had 3+ extra days to prepare after gaining 510 yards vs Ravens in 49-27 opening win, but over last eight years, teams that won mid-week season opener are 3-5 SU, 1-7 vs spread in Week 2 game. Home side won last five series games; Broncos lost four of last five here vs Giants, with last three losses by total of 8 points. Denver is 13-6-1 as favorite under Fox, 6-2 on foreign soil, 5-1 outside division. Giants are home dog for just 4th time in last five years; since ’07, they’re 4-2 vs spread as a home dog. Hard to tell awful lot about Giant defense after offense gave up two TDs and Romo played second half with damaged ribs. Broncos lost last three road openers, by 7-3-6 points; under is 8-2-1 in their last 11 road openers. Giants won four of last five home openers, with three of last four going over.
49ers (1-0) @ Seahawks (1-0)—This has become intense rivalry because coaches don’t like each other; Harbaugh once upset Carroll as a 42-point dog in Stanford-USC days. Seattle is 17-7 vs spread at home under Carroll; Niners are 10-6 on road under Harbaugh. 49ers won four of last five in series where home teams won seven of last eight; Niners lost three of last four in Seattle, losing by 3-25-29 points. Seattle outgained Panthers by 127 yards last week, but 109 penalty yards and lousy red zone offense (6 points on 3 trips) held them back in 12-7 nailbiter (Panthers fumbled on Seattle 8 with 5:25 left). 49ers were +2 in turnovers, 9-18 on 3rd down but also had 85 yards in penalties as they held off Pack 34-28- three of their four TD drives were 80+ yards, as WR Boldin had big day in SF debut. Niners won five of last six road openers, covered six of last seven, with over 6-3-1 in their last 10. Hawks won four in row, nine of last ten home openers, with under 10-1-1 in their last 12. In Carroll era, Seattle is just 1-5 as favorite of 3 or less points.
Steelers (0-1) @ Bengals (0-1)—This is most points Bengals have been favored by over Pitt since 1989, but with C Pouncey out for year, heart/soul of Steeler OL is gone. Steelers won five of last six games in series where six of last eight games were decided by 7 or less points. Pitt won last three visits here, by 6-7-7 points- they’re 9-7 as road dog under Tomlin, but 5-6 in divisional games. Since ’08, Cincy has been consistent money burner as HF, going 6-15-1 vs spread, 4-11 in division games. Pitt offense didn’t score until last 2:00 at home last week, gaining 195 yards, running for 32- they went 3/out five of 10 drives, leading to huge 21-yard deficit in average field position. Bengals averaged 8.1/pass attempt, outgained Bears, but were -2 in turnovers and came up short- they started eight of ten drives 80+ yards from goal line, also going 3/out on five of 10 drives. Bengals are 0-3-1 in last four tries as favorite in home opener; Steelers are 2-4 in last six road openers, scoring 19 or less points in all six games. Over last five years, Bengals are 14-21-3 vs spread in game following a loss; over last three years, Steelers are 11-4-1 vs spread in same role.
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