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**Udog** · 09-11-2013, 04:53 PM

NFL odds: Week 2 opening line report

If you’re looking for coverage or analysis on any other game but Denver at New York this week, don’t hold your breath.

The “Manning Bowl” headlines the Week 2 schedule and you won’t hear about another game, team or player until the media vultures have picked this family feud clean.

Oddsmakers opened this game at Denver -2.5 following the Broncos’ dominant performance over the Baltimore Ravens on Thursday Night Football and have since suggested a push to Denver -4 following the Giants’ sloppy showing in a loss to the Dallas Cowboys Sunday night.

“Just the fact that the Giants didn’t look sharp, we have to move this line because of the public perception of how each team looked in Week 1,” Peter Korner, founder of the Nevada-based odds service The Sports Club, tells Covers. “As good as Denver was and how the Giants looked last night, we know that will stick in the minds of bettors. So we upped it a point and a half.”

For those of you keeping score, Peyton Manning is 2-0 SU and ATS versus his brother Eli Manning for their careers. The total for Sunday’s Round 3 of the “Manning Bowl” opened at 48 points.

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks (-3, 44.5)

Overshadowed by sibling rivalry is this NFC West war between what many consider to be the two best teams in the NFL.

The Seahawks and Niners have a good thing going, which according to those Madden 25 commercials, started when Colin Kaepernick and Russell Wilson were at summer camp in the 90’s. I’ll have to fact check that one.

Most online books opened Seattle -3 while Korner and his team of oddsmakers came to the table with the spread as low as a pick. They eventually sent out Seahawks -3 but said things will get tricky in Northern Nevada – Reno and Tahoe – also known as Niners Country.

“I don’t know if the people up north can put up San Francisco as a dog,” he says. “They’ll be flood with 49ers action regardless. Northern Nevada is all Bay Area up there. I feel for them on this one.”

Korner says he’s much more impressed with San Francisco’s win over Green Bay and wasn’t convinced by the Seahawks’ efforts against Carolina. He expects this spread to come down quite a bit before kickoff on Sunday night.

New York Jets at New England Patriots (-13, 44)

Some shops opened this AFC East matchup as low as New England -10 and watched wiseguys smack the hell out of the odds, driving the spread all the way to -13.

That isn’t enough points, according to Korner, who sent out the Patriots -13.5 and expects that line to keep climbing before Thursday.

“Before the Jets won and the Patriots had a hard time (versus Buffalo in Week 1), this would clearly be two touchdowns. It’s a total anti-Jet number. We don’t get swayed on results too much. This is a gift. Who’s betting the Jets? Really, who? This is a classic favorite and over for a marquee standalone game.”

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals (-6.5, 40.5)

Perhaps the biggest knee-jerk reaction from Week 1 revolves around the Steelers’ struggles after losing 16-9 to Tennessee. Pittsburgh didn’t perform well in the preseason and bettors are well aware of the aging core of stars keeping the Steelers intact.

Korner originally sent out Bengals -4 but admits he underestimated the market and gives credit where credit is due to those who opened Cincinnati just shy of a touchdown.

“The offshore guys had a better opening line,” he says. “I wasn’t as high on Cincinnati as others. I agree with the move to six and will be suggesting that everyone keep this one high.”

**Udog** · 09-11-2013, 04:54 PM

Tracking NFL Week 2's biggest impact injuries

Week 1 provided plenty of thrills and surprises - along with the requisite spate of significant injuries. Several teams will head into the second week of action with injury concerns at key positions.

Here is a look at the most important injuries to watch heading into Week 2:

Dez Bryant, WR, and Morris Claiborne, CB, Dallas Cowboys

Bryant, one of the top receivers in football, suffered a mild-foot sprain in the season opener against the New York Giants and may be limited for Sunday's game against the Kansas City Chiefs. The Cowboys will likely limit him in practice to keep him as fresh as possible. Terrance Williams will likely see a significant increase in snaps if Bryant sits or is limited in the game. Owner Jerry Jones says the team will keep an eye on Claiborne, who suffered a dislocated shoulder in the win. Orlando Scandrick or B.W. Webb would likely start in his place.

Early Tuesday odds had the Cowboys as two to 2.5-point underdogs on the road, but it has since risen to three. The O/U is set at 46.5.

Danny Amendola, WR, and Shane Vereen, RB, New England Patriots

The Patriots offense looked uneven in its season-opening victory over Buffalo, and will now be without two more weapons. Amendola suffered a groin injury in Sunday's victory and will be limited all week heading into a likely game-time decision for Thursday's tilt with the New York Jets. Julian Edelman will take Amendola's place in the slot if he can't go. Vereen had a strong opener but suffered a wrist injury that required surgery, knocking him out of action until Week 11 at the earliest. Vereen's injury moves LaGarrette Blount into second spot on the depth chart behind Stevan Ridley.

Despite the losses, New England remains a strong 12-point favorite against the visiting Jets. The O/U stands at 44.

Maurkice Pouncey, C, and Shaun Suisham, K, Pittsburgh Steelers

Pouncey suffered a torn right ACL and MCL in the season opener against Tennessee, effectively ending his season. The Steelers will likely proceed with a combination Fernando Velasco and Kelvin Beachum, a significant downgrade at the position. Suisham suffered a hamstring injury - not that he had much work in the 16-9 loss - and will likely be out until Week 4. The Steelers signed 35-year-old Shayne Graham to take Suisham's place. The Steelers may be hard-pressed to score many TDs against a stout Cincinnati defense, leaving them to turn to Graham's untested foot.

The line has remained steady, with Pittsburgh listed as a seven-point underdog in Ohio. The O/U is set at 40.5.

Blaine Gabbert, QB, Jacksonville Jaguars

Gabbert may have been the luckiest Jaguars player Sunday, leaving early after suffering a hand laceration in a 28-2 drubbing at the hands of the Chiefs. The wound required 15 stitches to close and head coach Gus Bradley says that Gabbert will "definitely" not be on the field for Sunday's game against the Oakland Raiders. Chad Henne will start under center, which may actually mean good things for a Jacksonville offense that sputtered under Gabbert's direction.

The Jaguars opened as 4-point underdogs but the line has since risen to six. The O/U has dropped from 41 to 39.5.

Jacoby Jones, WR, Baltimore Ravens

Quarterback Joe Flacco is running out of viable receiving targets. Jones caught three passes for 24 yards before suffering a sprained MCL against the Denver Broncos Thursday. He'll be sidelined for the next four to six weeks, leaving Flacco with Torrey Smith and rookie Marlon Brown as his top two options. Brown had a strong game in defeat, but struggled at times with separation against the Broncos.

Baltimore enters as a 6.5-point favorite at home to Cleveland. The O/U has also held at 43.5.

**Udog** · 09-11-2013, 04:54 PM

Seven fastest NFL offenses go 6-1 over/under in Week 1

The Philadelphia Eagles successfully debuted their high-octane offense under new head coach Chip Kelly, taking a 33-27 win over the Washington Redskins Monday night.

The Eagles ran 77 plays on offense and piled up 263 rushing yards on 49 carries – the most rushing attempts of any team in Week 1. That quick pace helped top the 52-point total but didn’t set the bar for up-tempo offense during the opening week of the season.

The New England Patriots and their hurry-up offense remains the pace setter in the NFL, running 89 plays in a 23-21 win over the Buffalo Bills. The Patriots were tops in the league in offensive plays per game in 2012, averaging 74.3, and finished as the best over bet in football at 11-5 O/U.

The Baltimore Ravens were second in plays per game during Week 1 with 87 plays in a 49-27 loss to the Denver Broncos Thursday. The Detroit Lions tied the Eagles for the third-fastest pace with 77 plays, beating the Minnesota Vikings 34-24 Sunday.

Of the top seven teams that ran the most offensive plays in Week 1, all but one – New England – played over the total. Baltimore, Detroit, Philadelphia, San Francisco, Houston and Dallas all topped their respective game’s number.

Here’s a look at the totals for games involving those seven teams in Week 2:

New York Jets at New England Patriots (44)
Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens (43.5)
Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals (47.5)
San Diego Chargers at Philadelphia Eagles (49.5)
San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks (44)
Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans (44.5)
Dallas Cowboys at Kansas City Chiefs (46.5)

**Udog** · 09-11-2013, 04:55 PM

NFL Top 5: Players primed for a Week 2 bounceback

The opening Sunday of the NFL season saw plenty of inspired offensive performances - and more than a few clunkers, as well. Fortunately, with the next game less than a week away, players off to slow starts have an immediate chance at redemption.

Here are five players who are in good position for a Week 2 rebound (Week 1 totals in parentheses):

Cam Newton, QB, Carolina Panthers (16-for-23, 125 yards, TD)

Newton was effective when he actually passed the ball, but the Seattle defense made life difficult for him all afternoon long. The former first overall pick was also done in by frequent drops from tight end Greg Olsen which ultimately cost Carolina a chance at a big Week 1 victory. Newton will find things a lot easier this coming week, when he takes on a Buffalo Bills team that allowed Tom Brady to rack up nearly 300 passing yards in a narrow New England win.

Lamar Miller, Miami Dolphins (10 carries, 3 yards)

Miller was awful in the Dolphins' opener, failing to post a single run longer than five yards and losing a pivotal goal-line carry to backup Daniel Thomas. With Ryan Tannehill (24-for-38, 272 yards) moving the ball well, there was less of a need to rely on the running game. Miller should find plenty more success in Week 2, as Miami faces an Indianapolis Colts team that allowed the fourth-most rushing yards in the league last year and gave up 171 to Oakland on Sunday.

Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars (15 carries, 45 yards)

The 2011 NFL rushing champion was stymied all afternoon, breaking off just one double-digit run before being rendered an afterthought once the Jaguars fell way behind. Unless quarterback Blaine Gabbert (16-for-35, 121 yards, 2 INT) figures it out in a hurry, Jones-Drew could be in for a lot of rest come the third and fourth quarters of blowouts. This week should bear more fruit as the Jags visit the woeful Oakland Raiders.

Calvin Johnson, WR, Detroit Lions (four catches, 37 yards)

The hand-wringing over Johnson's pedestrian Week 1 totals looks a lot like the reaction people had last season, when Johnson's slow start to the year had some wondering if he was hurt or struggling with his rapport with Matthew Stafford. We all know how that turned out. Johnson won't have an easy time of it in Detroit's Week 2 tilt with Arizona, but it's a safe bet he'll see plenty of targets against a Cardinals team carved up by Sam Bradford on Sunday.

Zach Sudfeld, TE, New England Patriots (zero catches, zero yards, one target)

Sudfeld was the darling of fantasy sleeper enthusiasts, but looked remarkably un-Gronk-like in his first career NFL game. Sudfeld's only target resulted in an interception, and his limited snap count likely made it difficult for him to get into a rhythm. With Rob Gronkowski expected back soon, Week 2 is a pivotal one for Sudfeld; luckily for him, the Patriots host the New York Jets on Sunday in what should be a rout.

**Udog** · 09-11-2013, 04:59 PM

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 2

Thursday, September 12

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NY JETS (1 - 0) at NEW ENGLAND (1 - 0) - 9/12/2013, 8:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 154-114 ATS (+28.6 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) off a division game over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) off a win against a division rival over the last 3 seasons.
NY JETS are 44-27 ATS (+14.3 Units) in road games versus division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 3-1 against the spread versus NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 4-0 straight up against NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
4 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 2

Jets (1-0) @ Patriots (1-0)-- First road start for QB Smith who did alright in his NFL debut (24-39/214); Jets are 5-17 in last 22 series games, losing four of last five visits here, losing by 17-42-9-3 points. Pats won 10 of last 11 home openers (3-4 vs spread as favorte); since '05, they're 10-14 vs spread as home favorite in divisional games- since '08, they're 6-12 as double digit favorites. Jets are 8-5 SU in last 13 road openers, covering four of last five as dog in road openers- they're 11-4 as divisional road dog since '06, but just 4-4 under Ryan. Patriots are now +71 in turnovers in last 49 regular season games. Jets' only TD drive last week was short 31-yarder. NE outgained Bills 431-286, converted 11-20 on 3rd down, but Amendola (groin) isn't expected to play. Last 14 years, over is 10-4 in NE's home openers; under is 9-5 in Jets' last 14 road openers.

NFL

Week 2

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Trend Report
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Thursday, September 12

8:25 PM
NY JETS vs. NEW ENGLAND
The total has gone OVER in 5 of the NY Jets last 6 games when playing on the road against New England
NY Jets are 5-12 SU in their last 17 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 12 of New England's last 17 games
New England is 4-1 SU in their last 5 games when playing at home against NY Jets

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**Udog** · 09-12-2013, 07:22 AM

NFL
Dunkel

Week 2

NY Jets at New England
The Patriots look to build on their 4-1-1 ATS record in their last 6 Thursday games. New England is the pick (-11 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Patriots favored by 18 1/2. Dunkel Pick: New England (-11 1/2).

THURSDAY, SEPTEMBER 12

Game 101-102: NY Jets at New England (8:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Jets 125.784; New England 144.513
Dunkel Line: New England by 18 1/2; 49
Vegas Line: New England by 11 1/2; 43
Dunkel Pick: New England (-11 1/2); Over

NFL

Thursday, September 12

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Thursday Night Football betting: Jets at Patriots
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New York Jets at New England Patriots (-12, 43)

The New England Patriots and New York Jets are each coming off last-second wins in their season openers, but the level of satisfaction on both sides was markedly different. The Jets eked out a one-point victory over Tampa Bay in quarterback Geno Smith's NFL debut and will look to carry that momentum into their showdown with the host Patriots on Thursday night. New England blew a 10-point lead and needed a late comeback from Tom Brady to overcome upset-minded Buffalo.

The Patriots have won the last four meetings, including a 49-19 thumping of the Jets on Thanksgiving night last year - a game remembered for the infamous "butt fumble" by New York quarterback Mark Sanchez. Smith will get his second start while Sanchez seeks a second opinion on his injured right shoulder from renowned orthopedist Dr. James Andrews. Brady and New England's overhauled receiving corps struggled in the opener and the team could be further depleted by injury for Thursday's matchup.

TV: 8:25 p.m. ET, NFL Network.

WEATHER: There is a 49 percent chance of rain and thunderstorms with temperatures in the low 70s. Winds blowing south at 8 mph.

POWER RANKINGS: New York (+6.0) + New England (-5.0) + home field (-3.0) = Patriots -14

LINE: The Patriots opened at -13 and were as high as -14 before injury news forced money on New York and moved the spread to as low as -12. The total has dropped from 44.5 to 43.

ABOUT THE JETS (1-0, 1-0 ATS): Smith was far from perfect in his debut but he etched his name into the record books by becoming the first rookie quarterback drafted in the second round or later since the 1970 merger to throw for at least 250 yards and win a season opener. Smith finished 24-for-38 for 256 yards with a fumble and interception, but he got the team in position for the decisive field goal in the final 34 seconds - albeit with the help of a Tampa Bay penalty. New York's defense - the calling card of coach Rex Ryan during his tenure - limited the Buccaneers to 250 yards of offense but the Jets' running game was non-existent, with Smith leading the way with 47 yards.

ABOUT THE PATRIOTS (1-0, 0-1 ATS): New England got bad news on the injury front Monday when it was reported that running back Shane Vereen will require surgery for a broken wrist and will be out a few weeks. Vereen was the only running back in the NFL to surpass 100 yards on Sunday and added seven catches for 58 yards after replacing Stevan Ridley, who was benched due to a pair of fumbles. Wideout Danny Amendola was Brady's favorite target with 10 catches for 104 yards, but he aggravated a groin injury during the win and his status is uncertain. In addition, rookie tight end Zach Sudfeld, the team's training camp sensation, is not expected to play due to a pulled hamstring.

TRENDS:

* Over is 5-0-1 in the last six meetings in New England.
* Over is 7-0-1 in the last eight meetings.
* Road team is 21-8-1 ATS in their last 30 meetings.
* Jets are 1-5 ATS in their last six vs. AFC.
* Over is 16-5 in Patriots' last 21 vs. AFC East.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Brady has thrown a touchdown pass in 49 consecutive games, five shy of Drew Brees' NFL record.

2. Jets WR Santonio Holmes, a former Super Bowl MVP, had one catch for 13 yards in his first action since suffering a Lisfranc foot injury in Week 4 last season.

3. The Jets on Monday re-signed QB Brady Quinn, a former first-round pick, to serve as Smith's backup.

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NFL

Thursday, September 12

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Tale of the tape: New York Jets at New England Patriots
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There is no love lost between the Jets and Patriots, even if the two rivals are on opposite ends of the AFC spectrum. We break down Thursday’s AFC North grudge match with our betting tale of the tape:

Offense

Even though the Patriots lost plenty of weapons this offseason, are still without TE Rob Gronkowski and just lost WR Danny Amendola and RB Shane Vereen to injuries, they’re scoring attack is still light years ahead of the Jets. Tom Brady may have found Wes Welker 2.0 in WR Julian Edelman.

Geno Smith was a pleasant surprise for Jets faithful against the Bucs in Week 1. The rookie completed 63.2 percent of his passes and did a little damage on the ground as well. In fact, he pretty much did all the heavy lifting for New York’s ground game, which rushed for only 43 yards outside of Smith’s contributions.

Edge: New England

Defense

New York’s defense was opportunistic in the win over Tampa Bay, picking off one pass and recovering one of its three forced fumbles. It will need to generate those turnovers if its wants a shot at upsetting the mighty Pats on the road. New England is minus its top TE weapons and Jet CB Antonio Cromartie should be able to limit Edelman.

New England faces its second straight rookie passer after giving up two TDs to Bills first-year QB E.J. Manuel in Week 1’s 23-21 nail-biter over Buffalo. The Patriots did limit the Bills to just 150 yards passing but couldn't come up big in the red zone and failed to register a single sack.

Edge: New York

Special teams

The real edge in this matchup is New England kicker Stephen Gostkowski, who nailed all three of his field goal attempts, including the game winner with five seconds left, versus Buffalo.

New York kicker Nick Folk was just as accurate, going 3 for 3 versus the Bucs. However, Folk has been shaky at times and connected on only 77.8 percent of his FGs last season. He did go 4 for 4 his last time playing at Gillette Stadium.

Edge: New England

Notable quotable

"Rex (Ryan) is to a degree a game-plan coach. He defends you the way that they feel they need to do that. How they defend you and how they defended the team before or the opponent after is all based on how he sees the matchups and what he wants to do. There's certainly going to be some in-game adjustments that we'll have to make, I'm sure, in all three phases of the game based on how they specifically want to try to attack us." – Patriots head coach Bill Belichick.

"I'm not saying I'm guaranteeing it, but I'm saying if we do our jobs and follow our game plan, I don't see why we wouldn't be 2-0. We had a good game plan in the first game and we won, so why wouldn't I feel that way for this game? I'm here with these guys every day and I see all the hard work that myself and everybody else on this team is putting in. We can be a dominant defense." – Jets DE Mo Wilkerson.

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**Udog** · 09-12-2013, 04:19 PM

NFL
Short Sheet

Thursday, September 12

NY Jets at New England, 8:25 ET NFL
NY Jets: 5-9 ATS in road games
New England: 10-1 ATS off a division game

**Udog** · 09-12-2013, 04:21 PM

Where the action is: Bettors fading injured Patriots

What was supposed to be a sure thing for the New England Patriots is looking less and less like an easy win, when the beleaguered Pats host the New York Jets on Thursday Night Football.

New England suffered through an awful offseason and nearly got knocked off in the opener versus Buffalo. Now, the Patriots are down two offensive weapons – RB Shane Vereen and WR Danny Amendola - and the betting public is showing their lack of faith in New England.

We talk to sportsbooks about the action coming in on this AFC East rivalry and where they expect the odds to close come kickoff Thursday night:

New York Jets at New England Patriots – Open: -12, Move: -13.5, Move: -11

Both the Jets and Patriots picked up wins in Week 1 but only one of those victories is being seen as a positive. Oddsmakers opened New England as a 12-point favorite after narrowly avoided an upset at the hands of the Bills and early money moved that spread just under two touchdowns.

However, once injury news got out on Vereen and Amendola, New York bettors came out of the shadows and trimmed this line as many as 2.5 points. New England is already missing many key weapons and will need its unknown skill players to step up on the big stage.

“As expected the money kept on coming for the Jets with the line shifting to 11.5, which has slowed the bettors down,” Russ Candler, head of trading at UWin.com told Covers. “It might not be enough for the line to hold at 11.5 and we’re certain the line will go off around the -11 mark. The early morning money will have a big say on the final number.”

The total has also shrunk in the past day, dropping as low as 42.5 after opening as high as 44.5 points. Both the Jets and Patriots played under the number in their Week 1 contests, however, New England boasted the fast-paced offense and was the best over bet in the NFL last season, going 11-5 over/under.

“After it was announced Danny Amendola wouldn’t play, the total dropped to 43.5 with 68 percent still on over,” Mike Perry of Sportsbook.com told Covers.

"The punters have attacked the point totals, taking the overs. Shoot out here we come," says Candler.

The Patriots are seeing the majority of action on the moneyline, even more so after books trimmed their straight-up price from as high as -750 to -588. According to Sportsbook.com, 88 percent of moneyline wagers are on New England.

**Udog** · 09-12-2013, 04:22 PM

Where the action is: NFL mid-week line moves

NFL Week 2 odds have been up since late Sunday night, leaving plenty of time for sharp and public money to move those numbers. We talk to sportsbooks about their recent adjustments in our NFL mid-week line report:

New York Jets at New England Patriots – Open: -12.5, Move: -13, Move: -11

Books kept this AFC North rivalry under two touchdowns, with the Jets winning in Week 1 and the Patriots barely getting by the Bills. Early action jumped on New England at the lower spread but as injury news crept out of Foxborough – RB Shane Vereen and WR Danny Amendola – bettors began to side with New York, forcing the current spread of Pats -12. Some books are even dealing New England -11 Thursday morning.

“Obviously the Pats are a public team, but with so much bad PR during the offseason as well as a rash of injuries and a list of receivers that nobody's heard of, the Patriots are not getting the kind of public action we're used to seeing,” Michael Stewart of CarbonSports.ag tells Covers. “As more and more money is starting to show on the Jets, I wouldn't be surprised if we go to 11.5 at some point today or first thing tomorrow.”

San Diego Chargers at Philadelphia Eagles – Open: -7.5, Move: -9.5, Move: -7.5

This spread has been chased all over the board with some books opening low and going high, and others opening high and getting bet down low. Any spots that opened the Eagles -7.5 took early money on the home side and were bet up as many as two points before buy back on the Bolts returned the line to its original post.

According to Russ Candler, head of trading for UWin.com, the most popular bet has been Philadelphia on the moneyline. The Eagles are currently priced at -333 to win straight up in their home opener Sunday.

“Bettors are betting on the Eagles as fast as Chip Kelly’s offense moves down the field,” Candler tells Covers. “That’s all come on the money line because -7.5 doesn’t look too juicy, especially after opening up at a crazy -9.5. Michael Vick still can’t be trusted.”

Jacksonville Jaguars at Oakland Raiders – Open: -5.5, Move: -6, Move: -5

This could be the worst game on paper for the 2013 NFL season. The Jaguars mustered only two points on a safety in Week 1 while the Raiders nearly knocked off the Colts, sparked by the crazy legs of QB Terrelle Pryor. Bettors have been hot and cold on Oakland as home favorite giving this many points - even if it is to Jacksonville.

“If things go as expected, Oakland won’t be giving this many points for the rest of the year at home, but as it’s Jacksonville, they have to be a fave,” Aron Black of Bet365.com tells Covers. “This line will probably go back towards Oakland, as there are more reasons to like them then there are the Jaguars. Early money is light on this one, but I expect us to be looking for a Jacksonville cover come Sunday.”

Dallas Cowboys at Kansas City Chiefs – Open: -1, Move: -3

Some shops opened this game at Chiefs -1 after Dallas beat New York on Sunday Night Football. That’s been quickly bet up to a field goal. Bettors are impressed with new-look Kansas City, even if its Week 1 victory came courtesy of the lowly Jaguars. However, the oddmakers aren’t overly sold on K.C.

“We don’t care that (Tony) Romo and (Dez) Bryant are banged up for the Cowboys because at UWin we do not believe in Alex Smith,” says Candler. “The Cowboys against ‘Mr Check Down’ with a 2.5-point lead at +105? No contest here.”

Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals – Open: Pick, Move: +1.5

Most books opened this game at a pick’em, putting some stock into the Cardinals and the new QB-WR combo of Carson Palmer and Larry Fitzgerald, which combined for two scores in Week 1’s loss to the Rams. But this spread is swinging toward the road side, going as high as Detroit -2, and a lot of bettors are skipping the spread and taking the Lions’ moneyline odds.

“This line could go either way as we near the weekend, but should stay somewhat around a pick’em or slightly favor Detroit,” says Black. “This line has touched -2 during the last couple of days, but for the moneyline move only.”

Denver Broncos at New York Giants – Open: +2.5, Move: +6, Move: +4

After the Sunday night fiasco against the Cowboys, early public money took the 2.5-point spread all the way up as many as three and a half points before sharp New York action trimmed the line to as low as Denver -4 at some markets. The Giants, despite massive turnover troubles and zero rushing attack, still hung around to scare Dallas in Week 1.

“Even though we've seen 65 percent of the total action on the Broncos, we respect the early sharp money on the Giants and if anything, I could see us going to 5 or even 4.5. We won't be going back to-6,” says Stewart.

**Udog** · 09-12-2013, 04:24 PM

NFL betting Week 2 preview: Hot bets and moving odds

Sports Interaction betting analyst Frank Doyle previews Week 2’s NFL action.

For veteran bettors, Week 1 probably went just as expected. There were some big lines on the board and the underdogs held their own. Four outright underdogs won straight up and dogs finished 8-7-1 overall. Week 2’s lines have come down a bit across the Sports Interaction board so let’s dig in.

All odds current as of noon ET, Sept. 12.

Key numbers

Week 2’s board features a ton of field goal and touchdown lines. Unlike last week, where the lines were all over the place, this time we have four pointspreads of seven points and three pointspreads of three points. New England is the big favorite at -11 at home to the New York Jets Thursday and Arizona is the slightest favorite at -1.5 at home to the Detroit Lions.

Patriot games

Last week, the New England Patriots were big favorites but couldn’t cover in a tight win over Buffalo. They opened as 13-point favorites in Week 2 against the Jets, but that line is dropping steadily as the club works on a short week with injury concerns. Shane Vereen is out for a while and Danny Amendola and Rob Gronkowski are very, very doubtful. When the Pats were 12.5-point favorites, 70 percent of Sports Interaction’s tickets were coming in on New England, but that’s changed as the game nears. Now as New England sits as an 11-point favorite, just 56 percent of the action is coming in on the Pats.

More odds on the move

The Baltimore Ravens opened as 6.5-point favorites at home to Cleveland but it looks as though the betting public is a bit concerned after that spanking they took from Denver. The Ravens have moved from -6.5 to -6.

It’s hard to get a read on the Jacksonville Jaguars and the Oakland Raiders. Are the Jags really as bad as they showed in last week’s blowout loss? Are the Raiders better than expected? These are questions bettors are asking themselves as this line bounces between Oakland -6 and -5.5. Don’t be surprised if this line flutters right up until kickoff.

Talking totals

If you can’t guess the two 50-plus totals on the board this week, you haven’t done your homework. The Philadelphia Eagles blazed through their win over Washington last week only to hear coach Chip Kelly say their no-huddle wasn’t fast enough. Philly is a 9.5-point favorite hosting San Diego and oddsmakers have a 55-point total posted. If Kelly has it his way, over bettors might be cashing their tickets by halftime.

Meanwhile, after throwing seven touchdowns last week, Peyton Manning and his Broncos see another 55-point total when they visit Eli and the Giants. Denver is a 4.5-point favorite. Dating back to last year, the over has gone 4-0-1 in Denver’s last five games.

Who’s hot, who’s not

There is a lot of weird stuff going on with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Quarterback Josh Freeman was stripped of his captaincy before the season began and missed the team photo, leading to a players-only meeting in Week 1. This week the Bucs host the Saints as 3.5-point underdogs and 94 percent of the action is coming in on New Orleans.

Baltimore bettors expect the defending champs to bounce back in a big way. The Ravens are seeing 93 percent of the action as 6-point favorites against Cleveland.

After surviving a scare in Week 1, the public is all over the Colts to cover the field goal spread as they host the Miami Dolphins. Right now, just 11 percent of bettors are siding with Miami.

**Udog** · 09-13-2013, 09:39 AM

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 2

Each week, we break down some of the underlying mismatches in the NFL, hoping to give you an inside edge when handicapping the schedule. Here are four of the biggest betting mismatches from Week 2:

San Diego Chargers at Philadelphia Eagles (-9.5, 55)

Chargers’ cross-country trip vs. Eagles’ frantic pace

Both of these teams are playing on a short week, having headlined the Monday doubleheader. But only one – San Diego – has to fly coast to coast in Week 2. The Chargers gassed out against the Texans in Week 1, giving up 24 points in the second half including 17 in the fourth quarter, and now face Chip Kelly’s rapid-fire attack.

New San Diego head coach Mike McCoy is trying to instill a similar plan of attack in his team this season, looking to push the tempo. That may be the Bolts’ worst enemy in Philadelphia. Getting into a track meet with the Eagles on a short week while traveling cross-country could leave little in the tank for the Chargers – again - come the fourth quarter.

Dallas Cowboys at Kansas City Chiefs (-3, 46.5)

Cowboys’ rejuvenated front seven vs. Chiefs’ conservative attack

Dallas’ new 4-3 defense looked like it had been playing that scheme for years against the Giants Sunday night, picking off three passes and forcing three lost fumbles. Those six takeaways are a huge contrast to last season. The pass rush also looked good, getting to Eli Manning three times. The Cowboys' only weakness was to the big play, allowing New York to connect on long third-down conversions and strike for a 70-yard TD pass before the half.

Dallas defensive coordinator Monte Kiffin may not have to worry as much about the long bomb this week. The Chiefs offense dinked-and-dumped its way to 28 points versus Jacksonville Sunday, averaging only five yards per pass and topping out on a 26-yard completion from QB Alex Smith. Kansas City’s new head coach Andy Reid knows the Cowboys well, but not this revamped defense that is wreaking havoc between the chains.

New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+3.5, 47)

Saints’ downfield weapons vs. Bucs’ poor pass D and rusty Revis

Tampa Bay ranked last versus the pass in 2012 and was supposed to have plugged those holes with the addition of CB Darrelle Revis. However, Revis was a step behind in his first NFL game since last fall and the Bucs allowed Jets rookie QB Geno Smith to complete over 63 percent of his passes and connect for two TDs.

Enter Drew Brees, who has been the top gunslinger in the NFL the past five seasons. He put up 357 yards through the air and two touchdowns in a win over Atlanta, and went for 307 yards and four TDs in a 41-0 ass-waxing of Tampa Bay last season. Revis can only cover one guy. Brees has more than enough weapons to choose from, with six players targeted four or more times in Week 1.

Denver Broncos at New York Giants (+4.5, 55)

Broncos’ punishing pace vs. Giants’ dinged-up defense

The New York defense limps back home after a tough loss in Dallas Sunday night. The Giants have a laundry list of ailments, including CB Prince Amukamara, LB Dan Connor, and DE Jason Pierre-Paul, who obviously wasn’t 100 percent after offseason back surgery. Those injuries will be exploited even more when Peyton Manning puts his offensive pedal to the metal.

The Broncos’ no-huddle attack could strand those hobbled defenders on the field Sunday. They ran 68 plays during the Thursday’s night blowout over the Ravens and boasted the third-fastest pace in the NFL last year. Not only that, New York’s lack of a running game will have the Giants struggling to control the clock. And winning the time of possession battle is key when trying to slow down Manning. If he’s not on the field, he can’t hurt you. Expect to see more of one brother than the other in “The Manning Bowl”

**Udog** · 09-13-2013, 05:52 PM

NFL
Dunkel

Week 2

SUNDAY, SEPTEMBER 15

Game 195-196: San Diego at Philadelphia (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego 130.330; Philadelphia 127.063
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 3 1/2; 51
Vegas Line: Philadelphia by 7 1/2; 55
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+7 1/2); Under

Game 197-198: Cleveland at Baltimore (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 124.172; Baltimore 139.231
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 15; 39
Vegas Line: Baltimore by 6 1/2; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-6 1/2); Under

Game 199-200: Tennessee at Houston (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 129.239; Houston 135.588
Dunkel Line: Houston by 6 1/2; 47
Vegas Line: Houston by 9 1/2; 43
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (+9 1/2); Over

Game 201-202: Miami at Indianapolis (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 132.193; Indianapolis 131.300
Dunkel Line: Miami by 1; 40
Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 3; 43
Dunkel Pick: Miami (+3); Under

Game 203-204: Carolina at Buffalo (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 133.877; Buffalo 127.706
Dunkel Line: Carolina by 6; 48
Vegas Line: Carolina by 3; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Carolina (-3); Over

Game 205-206: St. Louis at Atlanta (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 128.652; Atlanta 138.728
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 10; 51
Vegas Line: Atlanta by 6 1/2; 47
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-6 1/2); Over

Game 207-208: Washington at Green Bay (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 134.717; Green Bay 139.816
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 5; 45
Vegas Line: Green Bay by 8; 49 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+8); Under

Game 209-210: Dallas at Kansas City (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 125.409; Kansas City 130.522
Dunkel Line: Kansas City by 5; 49
Vegas Line: Kansas City by 3; 46 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (-3); Over

Game 211-212: Minnesota at Chicago (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 131.521; Chicago 135.908
Dunkel Line: Chicago by 4 1/2; 39
Vegas Line: Chicago by 6 1/2; 42
Dunkel Pick: Minnesota (+6 1/2); Under

Game 213-214: New Orleans at Tampa Bay (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 135.723; Tampa Bay 130.322
Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 5 1/2; 52
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 3; 47
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (-3); Over

Game 215-216: Detroit at Arizona (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 128.590; Arizona 129.422
Dunkel Line: Arizona by 1; 44
Vegas Line: Detroit by 2; 48
Dunkel Pick: Arizona (+2); Under

Game 217-218: Jacksonville at Oakland (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Jacksonville 115.603; Oakland 126.441
Dunkel Line: Oakland by 11; 44
Vegas Line: Oakland by 5 1/2; 39
Dunkel Pick: Oakland (-5 1/2); Over

Game 219-220: Denver at NY Giants (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 140.089; NY Giants 138.686
Dunkel Line: Denver by 1 1/2; 49
Vegas Line: Denver by 5; 55
Dunkel Pick: NY Giants (+5); Under

Game 221-222: San Francisco at Seattle (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco 140.811; Seattle 139.172
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 1 1/2; 48
Vegas Line: Seattle by 3; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (+3); Over

MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 16

Game 223-224: Pittsburgh at Cincinnati (8:40 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 127.890; Cincinnati 137.181
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 9 1/2; 37
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 6 1/2; 41
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-6 1/2); Under

**Udog** · 09-13-2013, 05:53 PM

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 2

Sunday, September 15

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SAN DIEGO (0 - 1) at PHILADELPHIA (1 - 0) - 9/15/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN DIEGO is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) in non-conference games over the last 3 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) in home games after playing on Monday night football since 1992.
PHILADELPHIA is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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CLEVELAND (0 - 1) at BALTIMORE (0 - 1) - 9/15/2013, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
BALTIMORE is 2-2 against the spread versus CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 4-0 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
4 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TENNESSEE (1 - 0) at HOUSTON (1 - 0) - 9/15/2013, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 4-0 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 3-1 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MIAMI (1 - 0) at INDIANAPOLIS (1 - 0) - 9/15/2013, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANAPOLIS is 1-0 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
INDIANAPOLIS is 1-0 straight up against MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CAROLINA (0 - 1) at BUFFALO (0 - 1) - 9/15/2013, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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ST LOUIS (1 - 0) at ATLANTA (0 - 1) - 9/15/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 8-20 ATS (-14.0 Units) as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 63-90 ATS (-36.0 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 94-127 ATS (-45.7 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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WASHINGTON (0 - 1) at GREEN BAY (0 - 1) - 9/15/2013, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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DALLAS (1 - 0) at KANSAS CITY (1 - 0) - 9/15/2013, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS CITY is 28-13 ATS (+13.7 Units) in home games in non-conference games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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MINNESOTA (0 - 1) at CHICAGO (1 - 0) - 9/15/2013, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 3-1 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 3-1 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NEW ORLEANS (1 - 0) at TAMPA BAY (0 - 1) - 9/15/2013, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 3-1 against the spread versus TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 3-1 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DETROIT (1 - 0) at ARIZONA (0 - 1) - 9/15/2013, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 43-64 ATS (-27.4 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
DETROIT is 1-10 ATS (-10.0 Units) as a road favorite of 3 points or less since 1992.
DETROIT is 4-16 ATS (-13.6 Units) in road games against NFC West division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA is 1-0 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
ARIZONA is 1-0 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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JACKSONVILLE (0 - 1) at OAKLAND (0 - 1) - 9/15/2013, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
JACKSONVILLE is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
JACKSONVILLE is 1-0 against the spread versus OAKLAND over the last 3 seasons
OAKLAND is 1-0 straight up against JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DENVER (1 - 0) at NY GIANTS (0 - 1) - 9/15/2013, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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SAN FRANCISCO (1 - 0) at SEATTLE (1 - 0) - 9/15/2013, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) in home games over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) in home lined games over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 20-7 ATS (+12.3 Units) against conference opponents over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 12-2 ATS (+9.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 12-3 ATS (+8.7 Units) in home games in games played on turf over the last 3 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 3-1 against the spread versus SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
SAN FRANCISCO is 3-1 straight up against SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Monday, September 16

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PITTSBURGH (0 - 1) at CINCINNATI (0 - 1) - 9/16/2013, 8:40 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 111-144 ATS (-47.4 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
CINCINNATI is 58-86 ATS (-36.6 Units) versus division opponents since 1992.
CINCINNATI is 10-22 ATS (-14.2 Units) in home games in September games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 3-1 against the spread versus CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 3-1 straight up against CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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**Udog** · 09-13-2013, 05:55 PM

NFL
Short Sheet

Week 2

Sunday, September 15, 2013

San Diego at Philadelhia, 1:00 ET
San Diego: 8-1 OVER as a road underdog of 7 points or less
Philadelphia: 1-8 ATS in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest

Cleveland at Baltimore, 1:00 ET
Cleveland: 2-10 ATS off an upset loss by 10 points or more as a favorite
Baltimore: 25-12 ATS in home games after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game

Tennessee at Houston, 1:00 ET
Tennessee: 2-10 ATS versus division opponents
Houston: 9-1 ATS after scoring 30 points or more last game

Miami at Indianapolis, 1:00 ET
Miami: 6-0 UNDER in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points
Indianapolis: 6-0 ATS in home games after allowing 6 or more yards/play in their previous game

Carolina at Buffalo, 1:00 ET
Carolina: 9-1 ATS after a playing a game where 19 total points or less were scored
Buffalo: 81-50 UNDER in games where the line is +3 to -3

St. Louis at Atlanta, 1:00 ET
St. Louis: 8-20 ATS as a road underdog of 3.5 to 7 points
Atlanta: 55-36 ATS off a road loss

Washington at Green Bay, 1:00 ET
Washington: WASHINGTON is 64-38 UNDER as an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points
Green Bay: 37-21 OVER after allowing 30 points or more last game

Dallas at Kansas City, 1:00 ET
Dallas: 3-13 ATS after 1 or more consecutive wins
Kansas City: 28-13 ATS in home games in non-conference games

Minnesota at Chicago, 1:00 ET
Minnesota: 19-6 OVER after allowing 450 or more total yards in their previous game
Chicago: 0-7 ATS off a non-conference game

New Orleans at Tampa Bay, 4:05 ET
New Orleans: 11-2 ATS off a home win
Tampa Bay: 31-11 UNDER in the first two weeks of the season

Detroit at Arizona, 4:05 ET
Detroit: 5-19 ATS as a road favorite
Arizona: 61-40 OVER in dome games

Jacksonville at Oakland, 4:25 ET
Jacksonville: 16-6 ATS in road games after a loss by 14 or more points
Oakland: 8-11 ATS off a road cover where the team lost as an underdog

Denver at NY Giants, 4:25 ET
Denver: 18-6 OVER against NFC East division opponents
NY Giants: 9-1 ATS after gaining 6.5 or more yards/play in their previous game

San Francisco at Seattle, 8:30 ET NBC
San Francisco: 34-53 ATS in road games after 1 or more consecutive wins against the spread
Seattle: 7-0 ATS after gaining 6 or more yards/play in their previous game

Monday, September 16, 2013

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati, 8:40 ET ESPN
Pittsburgh: 30-15 UNDER in road games after 1 or more consecutive losses
Cincinnati: 10-22 ATS in home games in September

Announcement

NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 2 (Thursday, September 12 - Monday, September 16)

NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 2 (Thursday, September 12 - Monday, September 16)

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