The Bum's Sept. NFL Pods-Stats-News !

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NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 1

Monday's games
Philadelphia @ Washington—Condition of RGIII’s rehabbed knee main issue here, especially with backup Cousins (foot) also hurt; Redskins swept Philly 31-6/27-20 LY, after losing five of previous six series games. Iggles won five of last seven visits here, but were -38 in turnovers in Reid’s last two years, which is why he is in KC now. Will Vick protect ball better in Kelly’s offense, especially with WR Maclin out for year? Since ’06, Philly is 17-7 as road dog, 14-7 vs spread in last 21 divisional road games- they won last four road openers, covering eight of last 12. Washington is 9-2 in last 11 home openers (1-4-1 vs spread as favorite); since ’06, they’re just 8-17-1 as home favorites. Odd stat; over last five years, Skins were favored in only two of 15 divisional home games. Seven of Redskins’ last ten home openers stayed under total; over is 3-1-1 in Philly’s last five road openers. RGIII is expected to play and be close to 100%.

Houston @ San Diego—Before he got fired, Norv Turner made point of saying talent level of his team wasn’t very good; Chargers were 3-5 at home LY, after being 37-11 from ’06-’11- they won last three home openers, by 25-7-28 points. Last five years, San Diego is 1-3 as home dog; favorites are 9-4 vs spread in Chargers’ last 13 non-divisional home games.. Bolts are 4-0 vs Houston, winning by average score of 29-14; Texans lost 24-3/35-10 in visits here, but last one was ’07, before they were good. Last two years, Houston is 7-0-1 in games with spread of 3 or less points; they’re 11-8-1 in last 20 non-divisional road games, 11-5 SU on foreign soil last two years. Texans won five of last six road openers (2-0-1 as favorites). Health of Texans’ star RB Foster is in doubt; Tate would get his carries if he’s unable to play. Over is 7-3 in Houston’s last 10 road openers, 8-2 in Chargers’ last ten home openers.

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NFL
Dunkel

Week 1

Houston at San Diego
The Texans look to build on their 6-1 ATS record in their last 7 games in September. Houston is the pick (-3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Texans favored by 5 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Houston (-3 1/2). Here are all of this week's picks.

MONDAY, SEPTEMBER 9

Game 479-480: Philadelphia at Washington (7:10 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 130.142; Washington 131.203
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1; 54
Vegas Line: Washington by 4; 51
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+4); Over

Game 481-482: Houston at San Diego (10:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 133.892; San Diego 128.357
Dunkel Line: Houston by 5 1/2; 41
Vegas Line: Houston by 3 1/2; 44
Dunkel Pick: Houston (-3 1/2); Under

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NFL odds: Week 2 opening line report

If you’re looking for coverage or analysis on any other game but Denver at New York this week, don’t hold your breath.

The “Manning Bowl” headlines the Week 2 schedule and you won’t hear about another game, team or player until the media vultures have picked this family feud clean.

Oddsmakers opened this game at Denver -2.5 following the Broncos’ dominant performance over the Baltimore Ravens on Thursday Night Football and have since suggested a push to Denver -4 following the Giants’ sloppy showing in a loss to the Dallas Cowboys Sunday night.

“Just the fact that the Giants didn’t look sharp, we have to move this line because of the public perception of how each team looked in Week 1,” Peter Korner, founder of the Nevada-based odds service The Sports Club, tells Covers. “As good as Denver was and how the Giants looked last night, we know that will stick in the minds of bettors. So we upped it a point and a half.”

For those of you keeping score, Peyton Manning is 2-0 SU and ATS versus his brother Eli Manning for their careers. The total for Sunday’s Round 3 of the “Manning Bowl” opened at 48 points.

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks (-3, 44.5)

Overshadowed by sibling rivalry is this NFC West war between what many consider to be the two best teams in the NFL.

The Seahawks and Niners have a good thing going, which according to those Madden 25 commercials, started when Colin Kaepernick and Russell Wilson were at summer camp in the 90’s. I’ll have to fact check that one.

Most online books opened Seattle -3 while Korner and his team of oddsmakers came to the table with the spread as low as a pick. They eventually sent out Seahawks -3 but said things will get tricky in Northern Nevada – Reno and Tahoe – also known as Niners Country.

“I don’t know if the people up north can put up San Francisco as a dog,” he says. “They’ll be flood with 49ers action regardless. Northern Nevada is all Bay Area up there. I feel for them on this one.”

Korner says he’s much more impressed with San Francisco’s win over Green Bay and wasn’t convinced by the Seahawks’ efforts against Carolina. He expects this spread to come down quite a bit before kickoff on Sunday night.

New York Jets at New England Patriots (-13, 44)

Some shops opened this AFC East matchup as low as New England -10 and watched wiseguys smack the hell out of the odds, driving the spread all the way to -13.

That isn’t enough points, according to Korner, who sent out the Patriots -13.5 and expects that line to keep climbing before Thursday.

“Before the Jets won and the Patriots had a hard time (versus Buffalo in Week 1), this would clearly be two touchdowns. It’s a total anti-Jet number. We don’t get swayed on results too much. This is a gift. Who’s betting the Jets? Really, who? This is a classic favorite and over for a marquee standalone game.”

Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals (-6.5, 40.5)

Perhaps the biggest knee-jerk reaction from Week 1 revolves around the Steelers’ struggles after losing 16-9 to Tennessee. Pittsburgh didn’t perform well in the preseason and bettors are well aware of the aging core of stars keeping the Steelers intact.

Korner originally sent out Bengals -4 but admits he underestimated the market and gives credit where credit is due to those who opened Cincinnati just shy of a touchdown.

“The offshore guys had a better opening line,” he says. “I wasn’t as high on Cincinnati as others. I agree with the move to six and will be suggesting that everyone keep this one high.”

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Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

09/08/13 13-*12-*1 52.00% -*100 Detail
09/05/13 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1000 Detail

Totals 15-*12-*1 55.56% +900


Monday, September 9

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Philadelphia - 7:10 PM ET Washington -3.5 500 POD # 1

Washington - Over 51.5 500 POD # 2


Houston - 10:20 PM ET San Diego +4 500 POD # 3

San Diego - Over 44.5 500 POD # 4

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Early Line Moves - Week 2

September 9, 2013


Week 2 of the regular season starts early again with New England hosting the New York Jets on Thursday from Gillette Stadium. The first betting shop to open odds for the second week was CRIS, a major offshore outfit.

Below are the early line moves since the numbers were posted at 8:00 p.m. ET on Sunday.

Early Moves

New England vs. N.Y. Jets
Open: Patriots -10
Monday: Patriots -12.5

Betting Notes - The Patriots have won the last four encounters (3-1 ATS) against the Jets but the previous two games played in Foxboro were decided by nine (30-21) and three points (29-26). New England dropped its home opener last season, falling to Arizona 20-18 as a 13 1/2-point favorite.

Indianapolis vs. Miami
Open: Pick 'em
Monday: Colts -3

Betting Notes - The Colts beat the Dolphins 23-20 last season as 2 1/2-point home underdogs. Including 2012 and last week's win over Oakland, the Colts are 8-1 at Lucas Oil Stadium with Andrew Luck as their starting quarterback.

Arizona vs. Detroit
Open: Pick 'em
Monday: Lions -1.5

Betting Notes - The Lions went 2-6 both SU and ATS on the road last season, victories coming against the Eagles and Jaguars, who went a combined 6-26. One of the six losses in 2012 came to Arizona, who destroyed Detroit 38-10 in Week 15.

Oakland vs. Jacksonville
Open: Raiders -3.5
Monday: Raiders -5.5

Betting Notes - Oakland hasn't been a sound investment when listed as a favorite in recent seasons, producing a 4-15-1 record versus the number in its last 20 situations. In 2012, the Raiders were 2-3 SU and 1-4 ATS when listed as favorites. Oakland defeated Jacksonville 26-23 last season at home, but failed to cover the point-spread (6.5). Blaine Gabbert (hand) has been ruled 'out' for Sunday by the Jaguars, which means Chad Henne will start at quarterback.

Total Adjustments

Cleveland vs. Baltimore
Open: 42
Monday: 43.5

Betting Notes - The Ravens gave up 49 points to Denver in Week 1, which helped the 'over' cash. If you include the preseason numbers, Baltimore is 5-0 to the 'over' this season. However, the Browns watched the 'under' cash in their opening week loss at home to Miami and the last four divisional battles between the pair has seen the 'under' cash.

Denver vs. N.Y. Giants
Open: 52.5
Monday: 54.5

Betting Notes - The Broncos scored 49 points in Week 1, 35 of them coming in the second-half. The Giants turned the ball over six times but still managed to put 30 points on the board in their 36-30 road loss to the Cowboys on Sunday. Including the outcome last Thursday, Denver has scored 30-plus points in nine of 10 home games with Peyton Manning under center. This will be the third battle between Peyton and Eli Manning. When he was the QB of the Colts, Peyton beat the Giants and Eli twice, 26-21 in 2006 and 38-14 in 2010.

Future Update

The LVH SuperBook in Las Vegas updated their NFL future odds. Even though three of the first five choices are from the NFC, the early line for Super Bowl XLVIII still has the AFC listed as a one-point favorite, which moved up from a pick 'em. The total also moved from 50 to 51 1/2 points.

Odds to win Super Bowl XLVIII

Denver Broncos 9/2
San Francisco 49ers 6/1
Seattle Seahawks 6/1
New England Patriots 8/1
Green Bay Packers 10/1
New Orleans Saints 12/1
Houston Texans 12/1
New York Giants 15/1
Dallas Cowboys 15/1
Atlanta Falcons 18/1
Chicago Bears 20/1
Cincinnati Bengals 25/1
Washington Redskins 30/1
Miami Dolphins 30/1
Indianapolis Colts 30/1
Carolina Panthers 40/1
Pittsburgh Steelers 40/1
Baltimore Ravens 40/1
Detroit Lions 40/1
Kansas City Chiefs 40/1
St Louis Rams 50/1
San Diego Chargers 60/1
New York Jets 60/1
Philadelphia Eagles 60/1
Tennessee Titans 75/1
Minnesota Vikings 100/1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 100/1
Cleveland Browns 100/1
Buffalo Bills 100/1
Arizona Cardinals 100/1
Oakland Raiders 300/1
Jacksonville Jaguars 1000/1

SUPER BOWL XLVIII Early Line
NFC
AFC -1, 51.5

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Armadillo: Tuesday's List of 13: Nobody asked me, but.........

13) Carolina Panthers ran 49 plays in their whole game Sunday; Eagles ran 30 in the first quarter Monday night, 53 in the first half, in their 33-27 win over the Redskins. Curious to see how teams adjust to this unique, faster style, but Washington sure wasn't ready for it.

12) Texas Longhorns pushed the panic button and fired DC Manny Diaz Sunday, after BYU ran for 550 yards in a 40-21 upset win. Texas is 1-1 and won their first game 56-7, and a coaching change is needed already? Yikes. Texas replaced Diaz with former Syracuse coach Greg Robinson.

11) Oklahoma QB Trevor Knight has a bruised knee, will miss at least one game as run-oriented QB Blake Bell will start the Sooners' next game.

10) USC named Cody Kessler its starting QB, even though he already started the Trojans' first two games; USC didn't have a pass play longer than eight yards against the Coogs Saturday. Trojans play Boston College next.

9) Hunter Pence has started every game for the Giants this year; the last time a major league OF started every game in a season was Jeff Francoeur for the 2007 Braves.

8) Gene Simmons is now co-owner of the Los Angeles KISS of Arena Football; being an excellent businessman, Simmons has offered Tim Tebow a contract with the KISS, which would help Tebow become a better QB, and make both of them a lot of money, but the AFL season is already over for this year. Maybe next spring; if Tebow really wants to be an NFL QB, he has to improve his passing. He can do that in the AFL.

7) USC's ugly 10-7 home loss to Washington State Saturday already has jackals circling over Lane Kiffin's head. Los Angeles media has floated names of (USC alum) former Jaguar coach Jack Del Rio, Vanderbilt's coach James Franklin as possible replacements if Trojan AD Pat Haden fires Kiffin.

6)\ Jacksonville declared Blaine Gabbert out for this week's game; backup QBs for Jaguars are Chad Henne and the highly suspect Ricky Stanzi- they also have Denard Robinson, who could run the Wildcat.

5) Fresno State ran the old hook-and-ladder trick play Saturday, with the guy scoring a TD an offensive lineman- odd play to see. Miami once scored a TD in playoff game on that play, but with Duriel Harris scoring a TD.

4) TCU lost QB Casey Pachall for eight weeks with a broken left arm, which is his non-throwing arm. Horned Frogs play on TV Thursday, against Texas Tech in Lubbock.

3) College football has a rule on 2-point conversions, where the defense can score two points by returning a fumble, INT or blocked kick all the way back for a score. The NFL needs this rule; makes the game little more interesting.

2) No one dislikes NFL exhibition games more than me, but Monday's game shows how you need one or two games to sharpen your skills to play in real games, where the speeds amps up exponentially. Robert Griffin III will have his training camp this month, which ain't how its supposed to be..

1) Its an understatement to say that the Redskins got a bad deal from the NFL playing the Eagles in Week 1. No one really knew what to expect from Chip Kelly's team. Future opponents will be better prepared.

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NFL Top 5: Players primed for a Week 2 bounceback

The opening Sunday of the NFL season saw plenty of inspired offensive performances - and more than a few clunkers, as well. Fortunately, with the next game less than a week away, players off to slow starts have an immediate chance at redemption.

Here are five players who are in good position for a Week 2 rebound (Week 1 totals in parentheses):

Cam Newton, QB, Carolina Panthers (16-for-23, 125 yards, TD)

Newton was effective when he actually passed the ball, but the Seattle defense made life difficult for him all afternoon long. The former first overall pick was also done in by frequent drops from tight end Greg Olsen which ultimately cost Carolina a chance at a big Week 1 victory. Newton will find things a lot easier this coming week, when he takes on a Buffalo Bills team that allowed Tom Brady to rack up nearly 300 passing yards in a narrow New England win.

Lamar Miller, Miami Dolphins (10 carries, 3 yards)

Miller was awful in the Dolphins' opener, failing to post a single run longer than five yards and losing a pivotal goal-line carry to backup Daniel Thomas. With Ryan Tannehill (24-for-38, 272 yards) moving the ball well, there was less of a need to rely on the running game. Miller should find plenty more success in Week 2, as Miami faces an Indianapolis Colts team that allowed the fourth-most rushing yards in the league last year and gave up 171 to Oakland on Sunday.

Maurice Jones-Drew, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars (15 carries, 45 yards)

The 2011 NFL rushing champion was stymied all afternoon, breaking off just one double-digit run before being rendered an afterthought once the Jaguars fell way behind. Unless quarterback Blaine Gabbert (16-for-35, 121 yards, 2 INT) figures it out in a hurry, Jones-Drew could be in for a lot of rest come the third and fourth quarters of blowouts. This week should bear more fruit as the Jags visit the woeful Oakland Raiders.

Calvin Johnson, WR, Detroit Lions (four catches, 37 yards)

The hand-wringing over Johnson's pedestrian Week 1 totals looks a lot like the reaction people had last season, when Johnson's slow start to the year had some wondering if he was hurt or struggling with his rapport with Matthew Stafford. We all know how that turned out. Johnson won't have an easy time of it in Detroit's Week 2 tilt with Arizona, but it's a safe bet he'll see plenty of targets against a Cardinals team carved up by Sam Bradford on Sunday.

Zach Sudfeld, TE, New England Patriots (zero catches, zero yards, one target)

Sudfeld was the darling of fantasy sleeper enthusiasts, but looked remarkably un-Gronk-like in his first career NFL game. Sudfeld's only target resulted in an interception, and his limited snap count likely made it difficult for him to get into a rhythm. With Rob Gronkowski expected back soon, Week 2 is a pivotal one for Sudfeld; luckily for him, the Patriots host the New York Jets on Sunday in what should be a rout.

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Seven fastest NFL offenses go 6-1 over/under in Week 1

The Philadelphia Eagles successfully debuted their high-octane offense under new head coach Chip Kelly, taking a 33-27 win over the Washington Redskins Monday night.

The Eagles ran 77 plays on offense and piled up 263 rushing yards on 49 carries – the most rushing attempts of any team in Week 1. That quick pace helped top the 52-point total but didn’t set the bar for up-tempo offense during the opening week of the season.

The New England Patriots and their hurry-up offense remains the pace setter in the NFL, running 89 plays in a 23-21 win over the Buffalo Bills. The Patriots were tops in the league in offensive plays per game in 2012, averaging 74.3, and finished as the best over bet in football at 11-5 O/U.

The Baltimore Ravens were second in plays per game during Week 1 with 87 plays in a 49-27 loss to the Denver Broncos Thursday. The Detroit Lions tied the Eagles for the third-fastest pace with 77 plays, beating the Minnesota Vikings 34-24 Sunday.

Of the top seven teams that ran the most offensive plays in Week 1, all but one – New England – played over the total. Baltimore, Detroit, Philadelphia, San Francisco, Houston and Dallas all topped their respective game’s number.

Here’s a look at the totals for games involving those seven teams in Week 2:

New York Jets at New England Patriots (44)
Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens (43.5)
Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals (47.5)
San Diego Chargers at Philadelphia Eagles (49.5)
San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks (44)
Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans (44.5)
Dallas Cowboys at Kansas City Chiefs (46.5)

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Close Calls - Week 1

September 10, 2013

NFL games often go down to the wire, especially relative to the spread. Here are close calls from Week 1 of the NFL season, recapping the spread-changing plays from the fourth quarters around the league. Each week there are several key plays late in games that can change the result or create a misleading final score, get the details in this weekly column.

New Orleans Saints (-3.5) 23, Atlanta Falcons 17: The two NFC South favorites opened up with a closely contested game though it was much lower scoring than most expected. The Saints led by three at the half and that margin held through three quarters with the Saints up, 20-17. There was no scoring in the fourth quarter until just over three minutes to go as the Saints had to settle for a 22-yard field goal to go up by six, leaving a window for the Falcons to win with a touchdown. But getting past the spread that was steady at -3 most of the week before adding a late hook. Atlanta drove the length of the field, eventually set up at the New Orleans seven with 1st and goal, but the Falcons could not get in with four straight pass plays, the last of which was tipped and intercepted.

Chicago Bears (-3) 24, Cincinnati Bengals 21: Cincinnati led 21-10 deep into the third quarter in Chicago before the Bears punched in a touchdown to get within four late in the third. Early in the fourth quarter, the teams exchanged interceptions but Andy Dalton's pick proved more costly, deep in scoring territory. The Bears followed with a long drive, eventually converting a big 4th and 1 play and then connecting with Brandon Marshall for a 19-yard touchdown to take the lead. Cincinnati still had almost eight minutes to play, but quickly went backwards on a 3-and-out and Chicago was able to burn the final six minutes, mainly with Michael Bush rushing, leaving a push for most involved. The game ended with the Bears on the edge of field goal range with a personal foul on an unsuccessful 3rd down conversion, costing the Bengals a shot to get the ball back.


Seattle Seahawks (-3.5) 12, Carolina Panthers 7: Carolina led 7-3 at halftime in what turned out to be a defensive showcase in the NFC. After a productive third quarter drive, the Seahawks had to settle for a field goal to only trail by one entering the fourth. Seattle finally was able to break a big play as the Seahawks connected for a 43-yard pass play with just over 10 minutes to go. Up by five, the Seahawks went for two but failed, leaving Carolina able to cover as an underdog with any type of scoring play. The Panthers seemed to have the immediate answer blazing into Seattle territory with eight plays netting 56 yards. On 2nd and short with just over five minutes to go, DeAngelo Williams broke a few tackles and turned the first down gain into a big play, stretching for 16 yards down inside the Seattle 10, but he was caught from behind and a fumble was forced, recovered by the Seahawks with just over five minutes to go. Seattle was able to convert four first downs on the next possession to run out the clock and leave those on the Panthers with a very tough loss.

Detroit Lions (-4.5) 34, Minnesota Vikings 24: Detroit dominated the box score on Sunday, but this game stayed close on the scoreboard with Minnesota able to create a few big plays to take advantage of missed opportunities from the Lions. Entering the fourth quarter, the Lions only led 27-24 after a high-scoring third quarter. Christian Ponder fumbled near mid-field on Minnesota's first possession of the fourth after the Vikings had forced a punt and the Lions responded with a touchdown drive to go up by 10 with less than seven minutes to go. Ponder threw three straight incomplete passes as Minnesota would quickly punt on the next drive, but the Vikings stepped up to force another punt on defense. Minnesota's last chance came with just over four minutes to go, but they were pinned on the one-yard line. Minnesota converted a 4th and 4 at its own seven-yard line, but on the subsequent 4th down with the game on the line, Minnesota produced another turnover with an interception near mid-field to end the threat.

St. Louis Rams (-4.5) 27, Arizona Cardinals 24: Arizona led 24-13 entering the fourth quarter and while the Cardinals did hold on for the underdog cover, it certainly got dicey late in the game. St. Louis did not take long to score in the fourth, getting a touchdown with 13 minutes to go with a couple of big plays and the Rams were able to add the 2-point conversion to get within three. Arizona's next possession resulted in a fumble to give the Rams great field position and the game was tied with just over nine minutes to go after a field goal. Arizona picked up two first downs, but had to punt near mid-field and the Rams were pinned deep. On a third down play deep in their own zone, Sam Bradford fumbled, but the Rams held on and were able to punt. Arizona was held to a 3-and-out and the Rams had the ball back with less than two minutes to go. A 25-yard pass play to Jared Cook was the key play on a drive into field goal range and the Rams took the lead with less than a minute to go after a 48-yard kick. Arizona's three desperation plays did not get close enough for a shot to tie the game with no timeouts.

San Francisco 49ers (-5) 34, Green Bay Packers 28: These NFC powerhouses were tied 21-21 entering the fourth quarter as the Packers kept coming back, despite the 49ers seeming to be in control much of the way. The 49ers hit a short field goal early in the fourth and then the teams exchanged punts. Mainly led by rookie Eddie Lacy and a big catch from Jordy Nelson, the Packers were able to take the lead with less than nine minutes to go, up 28-24, making the underdog cover look quite promising. San Francisco answered in just five plays with a Frank Gore touchdown putting San Francisco up by three with just over six minutes to go. Aaron Rodgers and the Packers were backed up deep after a poor decision on the kickoff return and the Packers had to punt after a quick 3-and-out. San Francisco was able to burn most of the clock, but the 49ers did not put the game away with a touchdown, getting another short field goal to inch past the spread with less than 30 seconds to go. Green Bay had no timeouts and while they did get a 38-yard connection to get to mid-field, Rodgers was not able to get a downfield pass off for the Hail Mary.

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Football lines that make you go hmmm...

Week 2 of the NFL season has some really great games: “The Manning Bowl”, San Francisco at Seattle, Washington at Green Bay. But right in the middle of that stellar slate is a steaming pile of crap.

The Jacksonville-Oakland game is the “Toilet Bowl” of all toilet bowls. The teams ranked 31st and 32nd respectively in our opening NFL power rankings, with the Jaguars actually sitting ahead of the Raiders heading into Week 1.

Oakland put up a good fight against Indianapolis in its opener, losing on a last-second drive. Jacksonville, on the other hand, couldn’t generate any offense outside of a blocked-punt safety and was forced to punt 11 times in a 28-2 loss to Kansas City.

All that considered, is the NFL’s second-worst team six points better than its worst? Oddsmakers are spotting the Jaguars six in Oakland this weekend and some shops have actually moved to that spread after posting Raiders -5.5. Cantor Gaming in Nevada opened this spread at Oakland -3 back in the spring.

Jacksonville is going with Chad Henne under center after Blaine Gabbert sliced his throwing hand open versus the Chiefs. But swapping out Henne for Gabbert is like choosing to step in either dog poop or cat poop. They both stink.

Oakland QB Terrelle Pryor played well under pressure, scrambling for 112 yards against the Colts. However, Jacksonville will study up and nail down those escape hatches, forcing Pryor to deal from the pocket.

The Jaguars defense wasn’t all that bad in Week 1 and didn’t get burned by big plays. They forced Oakland to kick five field goals (making four) in last year’s meeting and also picked off one pass and forced four fumbles – recovering two.

NFL

Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals (Pick, 48)

Another losing NFL team getting too much credit for playing beyond its early-season expectations are the Arizona Cardinals, who lost 27-24 to division rival St. Louis Sunday.

Carson Palmer is a serious upgrade over the rag-tag lot of QBs that were under center for Arizona last season, and Larry Fitzgerald finally has someone who can get him the ball. It’s no wonder he caught two touchdowns in Week 1.

Detroit, however, ran Minnesota off the field Sunday. The Lions played a frantic pace, totaling 474 yards of total offense and would have done more damage on the scoreboard if the NFL weren’t such dicks about the "process of the catch".

Overshadowed by big days from Matt Stafford and Reggie Bush was the defense’s ability to contain Vikings RB Adrian Peterson. After breaking a huge 78-yard touchdown run to open the game, the Lions stop unit locked “All-Day” down for under two yards per carry. They also grabbed three INTs and forced a fumble. Ndamukong Suh or no Ndamukong Suh, Detroit defense is for real.

NCAAF

Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Purdue Boilermakers (+20.5, 50)

Those NBC bigwigs need a new marketing campaign. Notre Dame is not as good as advertised.

The Irish were beat by Michigan 41-30 Saturday night in front of more than 115,000 screaming Wolverines fan in the Big House. That final score is not an accurate depiction of the game, though.

Notre Dame should have lost by a lot more, but that fabled “Luck of the Irish” came through with scores on a ND-friendly tip in the red zone and a careless pick-six from Michigan QB Devin Gardner in his own end zone.

Books have stacked 20.5-points against the Fighting Irish when they visit state rival Purdue this weekend. The Boilermakers are at the bottom of the Big Ten this season but always get up to play the kids from South Bend. The underdog in this series is 6-2 ATS in the past eight meetings.

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Tracking NFL Week 2's biggest impact injuries

Week 1 provided plenty of thrills and surprises - along with the requisite spate of significant injuries. Several teams will head into the second week of action with injury concerns at key positions.

Here is a look at the most important injuries to watch heading into Week 2:

Dez Bryant, WR, and Morris Claiborne, CB, Dallas Cowboys

Bryant, one of the top receivers in football, suffered a mild-foot sprain in the season opener against the New York Giants and may be limited for Sunday's game against the Kansas City Chiefs. The Cowboys will likely limit him in practice to keep him as fresh as possible. Terrance Williams will likely see a significant increase in snaps if Bryant sits or is limited in the game. Owner Jerry Jones says the team will keep an eye on Claiborne, who suffered a dislocated shoulder in the win. Orlando Scandrick or B.W. Webb would likely start in his place.

Early Tuesday odds had the Cowboys as two to 2.5-point underdogs on the road, but it has since risen to three. The O/U is set at 46.5.

Danny Amendola, WR, and Shane Vereen, RB, New England Patriots

The Patriots offense looked uneven in its season-opening victory over Buffalo, and will now be without two more weapons. Amendola suffered a groin injury in Sunday's victory and will be limited all week heading into a likely game-time decision for Thursday's tilt with the New York Jets. Julian Edelman will take Amendola's place in the slot if he can't go. Vereen had a strong opener but suffered a wrist injury that required surgery, knocking him out of action until Week 11 at the earliest. Vereen's injury moves LaGarrette Blount into second spot on the depth chart behind Stevan Ridley.

Despite the losses, New England remains a strong 12-point favorite against the visiting Jets. The O/U stands at 44.

Maurkice Pouncey, C, and Shaun Suisham, K, Pittsburgh Steelers

Pouncey suffered a torn right ACL and MCL in the season opener against Tennessee, effectively ending his season. The Steelers will likely proceed with a combination Fernando Velasco and Kelvin Beachum, a significant downgrade at the position. Suisham suffered a hamstring injury - not that he had much work in the 16-9 loss - and will likely be out until Week 4. The Steelers signed 35-year-old Shayne Graham to take Suisham's place. The Steelers may be hard-pressed to score many TDs against a stout Cincinnati defense, leaving them to turn to Graham's untested foot.

The line has remained steady, with Pittsburgh listed as a seven-point underdog in Ohio. The O/U is set at 40.5.

Blaine Gabbert, QB, Jacksonville Jaguars

Gabbert may have been the luckiest Jaguars player Sunday, leaving early after suffering a hand laceration in a 28-2 drubbing at the hands of the Chiefs. The wound required 15 stitches to close and head coach Gus Bradley says that Gabbert will "definitely" not be on the field for Sunday's game against the Oakland Raiders. Chad Henne will start under center, which may actually mean good things for a Jacksonville offense that sputtered under Gabbert's direction.

The Jaguars opened as 4-point underdogs but the line has since risen to six. The O/U has dropped from 41 to 39.5.

Jacoby Jones, WR, Baltimore Ravens

Quarterback Joe Flacco is running out of viable receiving targets. Jones caught three passes for 24 yards before suffering a sprained MCL against the Denver Broncos Thursday. He'll be sidelined for the next four to six weeks, leaving Flacco with Torrey Smith and rookie Marlon Brown as his top two options. Brown had a strong game in defeat, but struggled at times with separation against the Broncos.

Baltimore enters as a 6.5-point favorite at home to Cleveland. The O/U has also held at 43.5.

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NFL
Long Sheet

Week 2

Thursday, September 12

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NY JETS (1 - 0) at NEW ENGLAND (1 - 0) - 9/12/2013, 8:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 154-114 ATS (+28.6 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) off a division game over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) off a win against a division rival over the last 3 seasons.
NY JETS are 44-27 ATS (+14.3 Units) in road games versus division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 3-1 against the spread versus NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 4-0 straight up against NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
4 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 2

Jets (1-0) @ Patriots (1-0)-- First road start for QB Smith who did alright in his NFL debut (24-39/214); Jets are 5-17 in last 22 series games, losing four of last five visits here, losing by 17-42-9-3 points. Pats won 10 of last 11 home openers (3-4 vs spread as favorte); since '05, they're 10-14 vs spread as home favorite in divisional games- since '08, they're 6-12 as double digit favorites. Jets are 8-5 SU in last 13 road openers, covering four of last five as dog in road openers- they're 11-4 as divisional road dog since '06, but just 4-4 under Ryan. Patriots are now +71 in turnovers in last 49 regular season games. Jets' only TD drive last week was short 31-yarder. NE outgained Bills 431-286, converted 11-20 on 3rd down, but Amendola (groin) isn't expected to play. Last 14 years, over is 10-4 in NE's home openers; under is 9-5 in Jets' last 14 road openers.




NFL

Week 2

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Trend Report
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Thursday, September 12

8:25 PM
NY JETS vs. NEW ENGLAND
The total has gone OVER in 5 of the NY Jets last 6 games when playing on the road against New England
NY Jets are 5-12 SU in their last 17 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 12 of New England's last 17 games
New England is 4-1 SU in their last 5 games when playing at home against NY Jets

[StarDust Bum]

Tech Trends - Week 2

September 11, 2013

Thursday, Sept. 12 - NFL, 8:20 p.m. EST

Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

New York Jets at New England Patriots Belichick 5-0 SU and 4-1 vs. line last five meetings. Rexy only 4-7 as road dog since 2011. "Overs" six straight in this series and Pats "over" 38-16-1 last 54, Jets "over" 35-20-1 since late 2009. "Over" and Patriots, based on "totals" and series trends.


Sunday, Sept. 15 - All games to start at 1:00 p.m. ET

Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

San Diego Chargers at Philadelphia Eagles Birds "over" 7-1 at Linc LY and 9-2 last 11 as host. But Philly 3-13 vs. line LY and 0-4 as home chalk. Bolts "over" 17-7 away since 2010. "Over" and Bolts, based on "totals" and team trends.


Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens Ravens have won last 10 SU in series, but note that visiting team has covered last seven, including three straight covers for Brownies at M&T Bank Stadium. Cleve. also "under" 27-11 last 38 since late 2010. Browns and "under," based on series and "totals" trends.


Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans Texans have won and covered last 3 and 4 of last 5 in series. Kubiak 25-11-1 vs. line since late 2010, 12-5 last 17 as home chalk. "Overs" 4-1 last five meetings. Texans and slight to "over," based on team and series trends.


Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts Miami "under" 23-10 since 2011, Indy "under" 16-5-1 last 22. "Under," based on "totals" and team trends.


Carolina Panthers at Buffalo Bills Cam 10-5-1 vs. line away since 2011 Cam also "over" 10-6 away since 2011. "Over" and slight to Panthers, based on "totals" and team trends.


St. Louis Rams at Atlanta Falcons Jeff Fisher 7-1 as road dog LY. Falcs "under" 21-12 reg. season past two years and 21-11-1 as home chalk in reg. season since 2008. Slight to Falcs and "under," based on team and "totals" trends.
Washington Redskins at Green Bay Packers Skins won and covered their last seven reg. season games LY. Shan 6-2 as reg.-season dog in 2012, too. But Pack 18-8 last 26 as home chalk. Slight to Skins, based on team trends.


Dallas Cowboys at Kansas City Chiefs Old AFL-NFL Dallas rivals 1960-62. Andy Reid familiar with Dallas but his Eagles were only 3-13 vs. line LY. Andy Eagle teams just 4-11 as home dog 2003-12. Dallas 6-23 as chalk since 2010 (though not as terrible 3-6-1 as road chalk that span). Slight to Chiefs, based on team trends.


Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears Bears 5-1 SU and vs. line last six meetings. Bears only 7-13-1 last 21 as home chalk. Vikes "under" 14-8 last 22 away. Slight to "under" and Bears, based on "totals" and team trends.


Sunday, Sept. 15 - Games to start at 4:05 p.m. and 4:25 p.m. ET

Matchup Skinny Tech Edge

New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers Saints have covered 4 of last 5 at Raymond James and have won and covered last three overall in series. Five of last six "under" in series. Bucs only 3-12-1 as home dog since 2009 (but better 1-1-1 for Schiano LY). Saints and "under," based on series trends.


Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals Lions "over" 17-7-1 on road since 2010 LY. But if Lions chalk note 2-6-2 spread mark on road in role since 2003 (2-3-2 since 2011). Cards and "over," based on "totals" and team trends.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Oakland Raiders Jags "under" 21-13 past two seasons, decent 5-3 as road dog despite all of the injury issues LY. Raiders 5-16 as home chalk since 2006 (1-3 LY). Jags and "under," based on team and "totals" trends.
Denver Broncos at New York Giants Eli only 12-19-1 vs. line in reg. season at home since 2009. Broncos 4-1 as road chalk LY and 6-2 in role since 2011, also "over" 37-18-1 since late 2009. Peyton Manning 6-0 vs. line last 6 and 9-2 vs. line last 11 reg. sea. games. Broncos and "over," based on team and "totals" trends.


Sunday, Sept. 15 - NBC, 8:20 p.m. ET

Matchup Skinny Tech Edge


San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks Pete Carroll covered both meetings LY and 17-7-1 last 25 reg.-sea. games. Seattle 8-0 SU and 7-1 vs. line as host LY. Harbaugh 5-2 as road dog since 2011. Seahawks, based on recent trends.



Monday, Sept. 16 - ESPN, Game to start at 8:30 p.m. ET


Matchup Skinny Tech Edge


Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals Pitt had won five in a row SU (4-0-1 vs. line) against Cincy prior to 13-10 loss last December at Heinz Field. Steel only 5-12 vs. line away from home since 2011, also "under" 25-15 last 40 since late 2010. Bengals and slight to "under," based on team and "totals" trend

[StarDust Bum]

Jets at Patriots

September 11, 2013

The Patriots and Jets are each coming off Week 1 victories on field goals in the final seconds. On Thursday night, New York makes the trip to Foxboro looking to trip up a depleted New England squad that suffered more injuries to important offensive weapons last Sunday.

Both running back Shane Vereen (wrist) and wide receiver Danny Amendola (groin) are out on Thursday night, as the two players put together solid outings in New England's opening day win at Buffalo. Vereen picked up 159 all-purpose yards, including 101 yards on the ground, while Amendola hauled in 10 catches for 104 yards as the Patriots edged the Bills, 23-21. New England failed to cash as 10-point road favorites, but the Pats managed their 19th win over Buffalo in the last 20 tries.

The Jets squeezed past the Buccaneers in Geno Smith's debut, 18-17 to cash as four-point home underdogs. New York overcame an early 14-5 deficit before Nick Folk's game-winning field goal that was set up by an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty when Smith was shoved after he went out of bounds. The Jets found the end zone only once when Smith hooked up with Kellen Winslow, but New York's defense limited Tampa Bay to just one field goal in the second half.

Both the Patriots and Jets finished 'under' the total in Week 1, as New York's 'under' of 40 was pretty much settled following a scoreless third quarter. New England and Buffalo were on their way to an 'over' of 50 ½ as the Pats led the Bills, 17-14 at halftime. However, the two teams combined for 13 points in the second half, while New England was limited to two field goals in the final 30 minutes, but still won the game.

Last season, New England swept the season series from New York with two dramatically different outcomes. The Patriots needed overtime to knock off the Jets at Gillette Stadium last October, 29-26, but failed to cover as 11-point 'chalk.' The Jets rallied from a 23-13 deficit to take a 26-23 lead with 1:37 remaining, but Tom Brady took the Patriots down the field to set up the game-tying field goal in the final seconds of regulation. Stephen Gostkowski tied the contest with a 43-yard field goal, then followed it up with the game-winning 48-yarder just four minutes into overtime. The game easily finished 'over' the total of 47 ½, while the Jets fell short in spite of racking up over 400 yards of offense.

The Patriots destroyed the Jets on Thanksgiving at Met Life Stadium, 49-19 to cash seven-point favorite tickets with ease. New England used a 35-point second quarter to put the game out of reach, which included a pair of fumble returns for scores in a nine-second span. The Pats decimated the Jets' defense by compiling 475 yards of total offense, while putting together an incredible two-week total of 108 points after scoring 59 the previous game against the Colts. Since the start of 2010, the Patriots and Jets have hit the 'over' in seven consecutive matchups.

VegasInsider.com handicapper Antony Dinero believes New England has a good chance to cover as long as others step up, "The Patriots can survive the loss of two more key weapons, Amendola and Vereen, but will undoubtedly have to run the ball more. Brady will still take his shots, but the effectiveness of LeGarrette Blount and Brandon Bolden running the ball behind starter Stevan Ridley will be the key to how effective the offense can be. If nothing else, it will shorten the game for the Jets by keeping the clock moving and slowing down New England's no-huddle attack. Of course, this could work against New York, who will have fewer opportunities for Smith to get in a rhythm in his first career road start. Count on ball control being a major factor in this latest reprisal of the AFC East's most entertaining rivalry."

New England cashed in just two of six opportunities as a double-digit favorite last season, including non-covers at home against the Jets, Cardinals, and Bills. Since Rex Ryan took over as head coach of the Jets in 2009, New York owns a 1-4 SU and 2-3 ATS record at Gillette Stadium, but the Jets are 4-1 ATS as an underdog of nine points or more in this span. New York has struggled in the role of a road 'dog since 2011, posting a 3-7 ATS record, which includes five double-digit defeats.

The Patriots are listed anywhere from 11-point favorites to 13-point favorites depending on the sports book. The total is more consistent at 43 ½, but all four primetime games to start the season have finished 'over' the total. The game kicks off at 8:25 PM EST and can be seen on the NFL Network.

[StarDust Bum]

Preview: Jets (1-0) at Patriots (1-0)

Date: September 12, 2013 8:25 PM EDT


After each team needed a late field goal to win their respective season openers, the New England Patriots and New York Jets are taking a more businesslike approach heading into the latest installment of a rivalry that has been one-sided of late.

Looking to extend their dominance within the AFC East, the Patriots try for a sixth consecutive regular-season win over the visiting Jets on Thursday night.

Trash-talking from both sides has often preceded matchups between these division rivals, and the image of New York quarterback Mark Sanchez fumbling into the behind of one of his own linemen during last season's 49-19 Thanksgiving night loss to New England is hard to forget. However, neither team has time to bring up the past or focus on anything other than preparing for this quick turnaround.

"It's Boston-New York," New England quarterback Tom Brady said. "It's going to be exciting. Hopefully, we can go out on a short week and win the game."

New England is riding an 11-game winning streak over East teams since a 34-31 loss at Buffalo on Sept. 25, 2011. The Patriots have won 12 consecutive division home games during the regular season since a 34-31 overtime defeat to the Jets on Nov. 13, 2008.

That is the only time in New York's last five regular-season trips to Foxborough that it has prevailed. Perhaps the biggest victory in coach Rex Ryan's tenure with the Jets, though, came at New England in the divisional playoffs following the 2010 season.

"If you want to win your division you have to beat (the Patriots)," Ryan said. "It's going to be a huge challenge without question."

Brady no longer has Wes Welker or Aaron Hernandez as targets and injuries continue to limit tight end Rob Gronkowski, but the Jets know the man they must stop is still on the field.

"Their team is different now," Ryan said. "But again, it's New England. It starts with Brady."

He's completed 67.6 percent of his passes and thrown 13 touchdowns with one interception during the five-game regular-season winning streak against the Jets.

Even with a new - and in some cases less-experienced - supporting cast, New England offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels believes that success can continue.

"Tom has had a lot of games against this defense, a lot of games against coach Ryan's unit, and this is not going to be different in that regard," he said.

Brady was 29 of 52 for 288 yards with two touchdowns and an interception during Sunday's 23-21 win at Buffalo. He completed four passes to Danny Amendola for 26 yards and three to running back Shane Vereen for 10 on the drive that set up Stephen Gostkowski's 35-yard field goal with 5 seconds remaining.

Vereen rushed for 101 yards on 14 carries but will miss at least eight weeks after he broke a small bone in his left wrist. Amendola caught 10 passes for 104 yards, but is dealing with a groin injury and is uncertain to suit up Thursday.

Brady might again look to Julian Edelman, who had seven receptions for 79 yards and two TDs. Rookie Kenbrell Thompkins was targeted 14 times Sunday but caught four passes for 42 yards.

Running back Stevan Ridley likely will start after his playing time was cut following a second-quarter fumble. He ran for 97 yards and a TD on 21 attempts against the Jets on Thanksgiving.

"We know that there are some players on our offense that are gaining experience each week and that there are plenty of players on our offense that have plenty of experience already,' McDaniels said. "Our standard is high. We want to play good offense and take care of the football and maintain our balance, score in the red zone and convert on third down.

"Those things are never going to change."

Though the Patriots have averaged 38.0 points and 419.2 yards in the last five regular-season meetings with New York, they could be in for a challenge against a Jets defense that held Tampa Bay to 250 total yards and three second-half points during Sunday's 18-17 win.

Buccaneers star Doug Martin managed 65 yards with a TD on 24 carries.

"We've just got to do our job week in and out," safety Dawan Landry said. "Every week's going to be a challenge. We're going to be up for it, though.'

Hours after Geno Smith went 24 of 38 for 256 yards with a TD, interception and fumble in his NFL debut for the Jets, he was studying the Patriots on film.

"We're going to do our best to prepare ourselves, and we will be ready come Thursday night," said Smith, who took a late hit from Tampa Bay's Lavonte David that resulted in a penalty and set up Nick Folk's winning 48-yard field goal with 2 seconds left.

Smith ran for a team-high 47 yards on six carries, but New York needs more production from the tandem of Bilal Powell and Chris Ivory after they combined for 44 on 22 rushes.

Smith will be without one of the team's more versatile weapons. Receiver/returner Jeremy Kerley will miss Thursday's game with a concussion, so New York re-signed Ben Obomanu on Tuesday to help fill in.

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NFL HEAD TO HEAD


Nov 22, 2012 Score ATS Results
NWE « 49 Cover: 23
NYJ 19 Over: 68
Tools: Boxscores • Recaps


Oct 21, 2012 Score ATS Results
NYJ 26 Cover: 8
NWE « 29 Over: 55
Tools: Boxscores • Recaps