NFL Week 1 plays !!!

[roccodean]

Hello all! Pumped that NFL is back
Week 1


1*: .66-.75 Unit
2*: 1 Unit
3*: 1.3-1.5 Units
4*: 1.5-1.66 Units
5*: 2+ Units

Line listed is the consensus line when game is posted, and these will be what I use for my record. View individual write ups for specific star changes if the line is different.

All rankings are based on yards/rush and yards/pass attempt-this is more accurate than total yards.

I also like Tenn (at +7 or better) and Oakland (at +10 or better) but I have more work to do and am not sure if I am going to make these * plays

1* Cleveland Pick over Miami
I think the Browns are going to be much improved and a sleeper this year (hence my over season wins total on them). Last year they averaged 4 YPR (21st) and they were 27th in YPPA. I hate Norv Turner as a head coach, but as an OC he is one of the best. Trent Richardson is going to have a monster year and I think Weeden will take a big step forward. I also think Gordon and TE Cameron will emerge as very good receiving targets. They will be facing a Dolphins D that was 10th (4 YPR) in YPR and 18th in YPPA (7 YPPA). Last year Mia was 19th in YPR (4.1) and 22nd in YPPA (6.8 YPPA). I think people are underestimating the loss of Reggie Bush also. He had nearly 1300 yards from scrimmage and opened up the Dolphins offense last year. As far as trends, I have a 92-58 ATS (61%) trend favoring the Browns (this trend is based on the Browns poor year last year and being at home in their opener). My calculated line on this game is Cleveland -2.5 so there is line value on the Browns. I think this line closes as the Browns a favorite and recommend getting it in at pick 'em as soon as possible.

[roccodean]

Adding:

1* Tenn +7 over Pitt (possible 2* upgrade)
I think Pitt is going to take a huge step back this year. This -7 line is based on Pitt being such a public team, and I predict the sharp bettors are going to hit Tenn hard and bring it down before game time. A good indication on how worried the Steelers are is that they are still signing offensive linemen as off this week. The public focuses on big name players (QB's,RB's,WR's), but the game is won/lost in the trenches (offensive and defensive lines). According to advanced stats (adjusted line yards,adjusted sack rate) the Steelers were 5th worse last year. Their D was solid last year, but they are aging and the loss of Harrison is going to hurt them. Their run O was atrocious last year at 3.7 YPR (28th) and their pass game was middle of the pack (16th in YPPA). Their premier back was supposed to be L. Bell but he is out this week at least. The loss of Heath Miller is going to be killer (71 receptions, 8TD's) because that was Big Ben's security blanket. And the departure of Mike Wallace is going to hurt their down field threat. Tenn was less than impressive last year, but I think they will be improved. I actually like Locker. I think he is tough and has good judgement. The Titans averaged 4.4 YPR and were 11th in the league last year. I think that Chris Johnson gets back to old form this year. My calculated line is Pitt -5 so there is line value on the Titans especially at the key number of 7. I have an 84-59-1 (59%) ATS week 1 trend favoring Tennessee (trend based on being bad last year and big dog this year). I think the Titans have a good shot to win outright and recommend a small piece on the money line.

[10DimeBry]

like the tenn call rocco.


I also bet the browns team total over 6.5 wins.

[JAB]

GL Rocco

[jcindaville]

Bol on the season Rocco!

[roccodean]

like the tenn call rocco.


I also bet the browns team total over 6.5 wins.

Thanks.
I got them over 6 back in May--I really like it.
Also have a sizeable wager on Pitt under 10 when it opened but that line is long gone...there is no chance they win 11.

[roccodean]

May add Carolina.

[roccodean]

1* Carolina +3.5 over Seattle
I love Seattle this year (I have a 16-1 Super Bowl bet on them), but the thing is so does everyone else in the world. Hence, I see line value here. I think they are slightly overvalued and the Panthers are undervalued. Carolina was very undervalued last year and they won SU and ATS 5 of their last 6. Carolina was 9th in YPR (4.5) and 3rd in YPPA (8 YPPA). They were average defensively; 18th in YPR and 15h in YPPA. As I said, Sea is a very good statistical team but they allowed 4.5 YPR (23rd) and I think Carolina exploits this. Seattle was +13 in turnover ratio and this should regress to the mean. I have a 48-21 ATS trend favoring the Panthers (based on home dog season opener and 2 other factors). Give me over a FG at home!

[LeRoy]

GL Rocco to another winning season

[jcindaville]

Let's ride Rocco!

Bol this season

[Sirporkie]

GL Rocco

[Kaptain]

have a good season Rocco

[roccodean]

thanks all
1-2 week. Carolina fumble with 5 min left didnt help.
on to week 2!