Hello all! Pumped that NFL is back
Week 1
1*: .66-.75 Unit
2*: 1 Unit
3*: 1.3-1.5 Units
4*: 1.5-1.66 Units
5*: 2+ Units
Line listed is the consensus line when game is posted, and these will be what I use for my record. View individual write ups for specific star changes if the line is different.
All rankings are based on yards/rush and yards/pass attempt-this is more accurate than total yards.
I also like Tenn (at +7 or better) and Oakland (at +10 or better) but I have more work to do and am not sure if I am going to make these * plays
1* Cleveland Pick over Miami
I think the Browns are going to be much improved and a sleeper this year (hence my over season wins total on them). Last year they averaged 4 YPR (21st) and they were 27th in YPPA. I hate Norv Turner as a head coach, but as an OC he is one of the best. Trent Richardson is going to have a monster year and I think Weeden will take a big step forward. I also think Gordon and TE Cameron will emerge as very good receiving targets. They will be facing a Dolphins D that was 10th (4 YPR) in YPR and 18th in YPPA (7 YPPA). Last year Mia was 19th in YPR (4.1) and 22nd in YPPA (6.8 YPPA). I think people are underestimating the loss of Reggie Bush also. He had nearly 1300 yards from scrimmage and opened up the Dolphins offense last year. As far as trends, I have a 92-58 ATS (61%) trend favoring the Browns (this trend is based on the Browns poor year last year and being at home in their opener). My calculated line on this game is Cleveland -2.5 so there is line value on the Browns. I think this line closes as the Browns a favorite and recommend getting it in at pick 'em as soon as possible.
Week 1
1*: .66-.75 Unit
2*: 1 Unit
3*: 1.3-1.5 Units
4*: 1.5-1.66 Units
5*: 2+ Units
Line listed is the consensus line when game is posted, and these will be what I use for my record. View individual write ups for specific star changes if the line is different.
All rankings are based on yards/rush and yards/pass attempt-this is more accurate than total yards.
I also like Tenn (at +7 or better) and Oakland (at +10 or better) but I have more work to do and am not sure if I am going to make these * plays
1* Cleveland Pick over Miami
I think the Browns are going to be much improved and a sleeper this year (hence my over season wins total on them). Last year they averaged 4 YPR (21st) and they were 27th in YPPA. I hate Norv Turner as a head coach, but as an OC he is one of the best. Trent Richardson is going to have a monster year and I think Weeden will take a big step forward. I also think Gordon and TE Cameron will emerge as very good receiving targets. They will be facing a Dolphins D that was 10th (4 YPR) in YPR and 18th in YPPA (7 YPPA). Last year Mia was 19th in YPR (4.1) and 22nd in YPPA (6.8 YPPA). I think people are underestimating the loss of Reggie Bush also. He had nearly 1300 yards from scrimmage and opened up the Dolphins offense last year. As far as trends, I have a 92-58 ATS (61%) trend favoring the Browns (this trend is based on the Browns poor year last year and being at home in their opener). My calculated line on this game is Cleveland -2.5 so there is line value on the Browns. I think this line closes as the Browns a favorite and recommend getting it in at pick 'em as soon as possible.
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