Da Bum's 2013 Preview NCAAFB News Notes Rumors !

[StarDust Bum]

Big 12 conference preview: No top team means extra value

The Big 12 Conference has 10 teams and nine of them have a legitimate shot at a bowl berth in 2013-14. There’s no single dominant team but there are a bunch of good teams. This could be the most competitive conference in all of football this year.

Bill Snyder’s Kansas State Wildcats tied Oklahoma for the Big 12 title last year. Which teams will be fighting it out at the top this season?

Oklahoma State Cowboys (2012: 8-5 SU, 7-5 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +265
Season win total: 9.5

Why bet the Cowboys: Wide receiver and kick returner Josh Stewart is the real deal. Stewart is going to drive a lot of opposing coaches crazy this season. Oklahoma State has two terrific safeties at the back of its secondary, so the pass defense should be much improved. The offensive line is one of the best in the conference.

Why not bet the Cowboys: The quarterback situation is strange. Oklahoma State can’t seem to settle on a quarterback and constant changes at this important spot often lead to problems. There isn’t much depth at the running back spot. The defense struggles to get pressure on the opposing quarterback.

Season win total pick: Under 9.5

Texas Longhorns (2012: 9-4 SU, 6-7 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +280
Season win total: 9.5

Why bet the Longhorns: Texas has the most talented defense in the Big 12. In the end, it is usually defense that wins titles. Jackson Jeffcoat and Jordan Hicks should be great for this in 2013. The running back combination of Gray and Brown is going to be lethal. David Ash has all the weapons necessary to succeed.

Why not bet the Longhorns: Ash just hasn’t proven himself in the biggest games. He was surrounded by talented players last year, but he still struggled against top teams. Mack Brown’s team seems to be a serial disappointer when there is no one on the roster named Vince Young.

Season win total pick: Over 9.5

TCU Horned Frogs (2012: 7-6 SU, 5-8 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +360
Season win total: 8

Why bet the Horned Frogs: TCU went 7-6 in its first year in the Big 12 despite a plethora of injuries. If the Horned Frogs stay healthy this year, you have to expect a big improvement. The Horned Frogs defense has a ton of speed and they are no longer extremely young on that side of the ball.

Why not bet the Horned Frogs: This is a really tough schedule for the Horned Frogs. They start the season against LSU, and going up against a top SEC team is never any fun. During the Big 12 season, they travel to Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and Kansas State. The offensive line is a question mark.

Season win total pick: Over 8

Oklahoma Sooners (2012: 10-3 SU, 6-7 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +375
Season win total: 8.5

Why bet the Sooners: Oklahoma has five Big 12 titles in the last seven years. Betting on the Sooners inside the conference has made bettors a lot of money over the past few years. Oklahoma has won at least 10 games in 11 of Bob Stoops’ 14 years as head coach.

Why not bet the Sooners: The Sooners return just four starters on defense. Oklahoma is still trying to settle on a new quarterback and whoever it is will be a significant downgrade from Landry Jones. Expect the passing game to be way down from where it has been the past few seasons.

Season win total pick: Under 8.5

Baylor Bears (2012: 8-5 SU, 9-4 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +1400
Season win total: 7.5

Why bet the Bears: Art Briles is a very underrated coach. Even without Robert Griffin III, the Bears went 8-5 last season. Lache Seastrunk has the potential to be one of the best running backs in the nation and he’ll be running behind a good offensive line. Baylor has had some very solid recruiting classes the past couple years.

Why not bet the Bears: Bryce Petty has potential, but putting a new quarterback into this system might slow the team down a bit at first. The defense gave up 37.2 points per game last year and it’s nearly impossible to be a top team with a defense giving up that many points.

Season win total pick: Over 7.5

Kansas State Wildcats (2012: 11-2 SU, 9-3-1 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +1500
Season win total: 8

Why bet the Wildcats: The single best reason to bet on this team is Bill Snyder. Should we ever be surprised when his teams outperform preseason expectations? He is one of the best coaches in the country. Tyler Lockett and John Hubert give the Wildcats offense some real star power. The offensive line may be the best in the Big 12.

Why not bet the Wildcats: Replacing Collin Klein isn’t going to be an easy task. Will the Wildcats be able to pass enough to keep the opposition honest? The front seven on the defense is much weaker than it has been in recent years. Kansas State will likely have trouble slowing down the run and getting pressure on the quarterback.

Season win total pick: Under 8

Texas Tech Red Raiders (2012: 8-5 SU, 6-7 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +2000
Season win total: 7.5

Why bet the Red Raiders: Kliff Kingsbury brings a lot of excitement to the program. It seems like the players are really pumped about lining up for their new head coach. Kingsbury was a very good quarterback here and he knows how to make this aerial attack work. Michael Brewer is a quarterback who should fit perfectly into this system.

Why not bet the Red Raiders: Texas Tech allowed 52 points or more in four of its last seven games. This defense is a bit better than it was a couple years ago, but it’s still a weakness. The Red Raiders have a tough schedule as they must travel to West Virginia, Texas, and Oklahoma in Big 12 action.

Season win total pick: Under 7.5

West Virginia Mountaineers (2012: 7-6 SU, 5-8 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +2000
Season win total: 6

Why bet the Mountaineers: Dana Holgorsen’s system works great in this conference and the Mountaineers should always be able to put up plenty of points. The Mountaineers have two solid safeties at the back of their defense and that could lead to improvement defensively. West Virginia gets its toughest Big 12 opponents at home this season.

Why not bet the Mountaineers: The Mountaineers defense allowed opponents to convert on 46 percent of their third down attempts. West Virginia’s defense allowed 45 points or more in six of its last nine games. The offense lost all kinds of great playmakers. None of the wide receivers on this roster will make anyone forget about Tavon Austin or Stedman Bailey anytime soon.

Season win total pick: Over 6

Iowa State Cyclones (2012: 6-7 SU, 5-7-1 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +3500
Season win total: 5.5

Why bet the Cyclones: Iowa State has quickly become a competitive team under coach Paul Rhoads. The Cyclones are no longer the perennial cellar dweller in the Big 12. Iowa State plays extremely hard every single time out and never quits before the final whistle. The Cyclones have a very good home field advantage at Jack Trice Stadium.

Why not bet the Cyclones: Iowa State may be the least talented team in the Big 12. The Cyclones simply don’t have the talent they had in the last couple seasons. An argument could be made that Iowa State has the toughest schedule of any team in the Big 12. How is a young team going to be able to withstand this brutal schedule?

Season win total pick: Under 5.5

Kansas Jayhawks (2012: 1-11 SU, 4-7-1 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +8500
Season win total: 3.5

Why bet the Jayhawks: Kansas actually has a talented backfield with quarterback Jake Heaps and running back James Sims. Heaps was a solid quarterback at BYU and he should be a big upgrade for the Jayhawks offense. This team has a lot of veterans, so they should be better prepared than many of the young teams in this conference.

Why not bet the Jayhawks: Charlie Weis thinks his team stinks, so why should you bet on them? Kansas was just 1-11 last year and it really didn’t seem like this team was buying into Weis’ system at all. Kansas wide receivers caught a total of zero touchdown passes last year. It’s really hard to win in the Big 12 without any play makers on the outside.

Season win total pick: Under 3.5

[StarDust Bum]

2013 Sun Belt Preview

August 12, 2013


A new year brings a new logo for the new-look Sun Belt Conference.

Next year brings even more change as the Sun Belt joins in the wild world of conference calamity.

Last season the conference welcomed South Alabama. This year Texas State and Georgia State are fully on board, with Florida Atlantic, Florida International, Middle Tennessee State and North Texas headed off to the Conference USA with Western Kentucky set to move to the same new neighborhood next year.

The Sun Belt will add WAC leftovers Idaho and New Mexico State, in addition to traditional FCS powers Appalachian State and Georgia Southern next season.

Meanwhile, Arkansas State aims for a third straight conference title, for the first time in Sun Belt history since North Texas did so between 2002 and 2004, behind third-new coach in as many years.

It was part of the SBC’s best-ever season ending computer ranking, ahead of the Conference USA and Mountain West Conference. Wins over two SEC squads, and a pair of bowl victories, added to the tally.

The ‘Fun in the Sun’ guys currently own a winning bowl record in games played since 2007 (8-7). And a recently signed contract with ESPN guarantees the Sun Belt new radiant exposure on the programming giant through the 2019 season.

One very disturbing stat: Sun Belt teams are 12-123 in games against BCS AQ (Automatic Qualifier) teams the last six years.

Granted, they may be arguably the weakest of the 10 BCS conference affiliates, and its league champ won’t be guaranteed a BCS bowl, but don’t tell them.

By rule, if it can, the SBC champion will earn an automatic berth in a BCS bowl game if its champion is ranked in the top 12 of the final BCS standings, or if that team is ranked in the top 16 of the final BCS standings and its ranking is higher that that of a champion of a conference that have an automatic berth in one of the BCS bowls.

As we’ve mentioned before, the league may be suffering from a bad case of sunspots but to a team they believe a member of the Sun Belt Conference will someday be playing in a BCS bowl game. Unfortunately, with the BCS in its final year of existence, it will have to happen this year or never.

Regardless, they’ve still having plenty of fun in the sun.

Note: Numbers following team name represent the amount of returning starters on offense and defense, with an asterisk (*) designating a returning quarterback. Potential designated ‘Play On’ and ‘Play Against’ Best Bets follow each team’s preview.

ARKANSAS STATE (7/5)
Team Theme: BIG PAIR OF SHOES TO FILL

New head coach Bryan Harsin brings an impressive dossier to Jonesboro. As a former assistant coach or offensive coordinator the last dozen years at Texas and Boise State, ten of his teams have gone bowling. He inherits a squad that has won back-to-back Sun Belt titles, with only one conference defeat the last two years. The question is will be he another ‘one-and-done’ like his predecessors, Gus Malzahn and Hugh Freeze, were the last two years? The loss of star QB Ryan Aplin and his top two wide receivers – along with leading tackler Nathan Herrold – puts Harsin in an immediate hole. Hopefully, a soft FBS schedule (foes 48-86 in 2012) should help him fill some mighty big shoes.

State You Will Like: Entering the 2013 season, the Red Wolves’ 8-game win streak is second only to Ohio State.

PLAY ON: at Western Kentucky (11/30)

GEORGIA STATE (*9/7)
Team Theme: RODE HARD AND PUT AWAY WET

Hired to lead the neophyte Panthers, Bill Curry – former Alabama, Georgia Tech and Kentucky head coach – launched the football program by going 6-5 in its inaugural season in 2010, then 3-8 in 2011 and 1-10 last season. By the end of his final game last year, Curry was worn out and had the look of a horse ridden hard. Hired in his place, ‘program-builder’ Trent Miles steps in this season after having taken Indiana State – a team that won ONE GAME the previous three years – to back-to-back winning campaigns. Rest assured, it’s a gigantic step from FCS to FBS for a program that debuted a mere three years ago. Road trips to Alabama and West Virginia will likely have Miles running for cover.

State You Will Like: New offensive coordinator Jeff Jagodzinski is a former Boston College head coach and Atlanta Falcons assistant coach.

PASS

LOUISIANA-LAFAYETTE (*7/7)
Team Theme: NEVER LET GO OF THE ROPE

The development of the Cajuns in two seasons under Mark Hudspeth has been dramatic. They are just one of eight schools that has won 9 or more games during that span. One of the first lessons he gave after taking over the helm came when he had the offense and defense engage in an old-fashioned tug of war. As the rope went back and forth with neither team generating enough force to win the battle, Hudspeth stopped the Cajuns and had both teams move to the same side of the rope, pointing out how much easier it is to move the rope when everyone was on the same side and fighting for the same thing. “We never let go of the rope,” said Hudspeth.

State You Will Like: Hudspeth is 84-29 in his nine-year career as a head coach, winning 10 or more games five times.

PLAY ON: at Arkansas State (10/22)

LOUISIANA-MONROE (*8/9)
Team Theme: WHAT A FEELING

After setting 45 new school records en route to guiding the Warhawks to an FBS-era best 8 wins last season, Sun Belt Conference Coach of the Year Todd Berry received a 4-year contract extension. They were America’s darlings for three weeks in September when they beat Arkansas in OT, lost to Auburn in OT and nearly took down Baylor in a 5-point loss. A total of 17 starters from last year’s team return, including SBC Offensive Player of the Year, QB Kolton Browning, who tossed for 3,049 yards and 29 TDs. Missing is his go-to guy, WR Brent Leonard, who hauled in 104 passes last year. Nonetheless, Berry will need to address a defense that has more defects than a Toyota Corolla if he wishes to retain that feel-good sensation.

State You Will Like: Berry is 0-24 SU and 6-17 ATS in games off a spread win of more than 4 points.

PLAY ON: at Baylor (9/21)

SOUTH ALABAMA (*9/8)
Team Theme: KEEPING UP WITH THE JONESES

Welcome to the FBS. After launching the football program in 2007, the Jaguars got their first taste of life with the big boys last season. A historic win over Florida Atlantic, their first-ever versus an FBS foe, wasn’t enough to wipe the taste of a 2-11 season from head coach Joey Jones’ palate. Jones, a storied wide receiver at Alabama and a Mobile native, leads his team into battle this season eligible to win the Sun Belt Conference and earn a bowl bid for the first time in school history. With five home games against foes that went bowling last year, they will rely heavily on WR Jereme Jones (set a school record for receptions last season) to stop the bleeding.

State You Will Like: The Jaguars were 17-0, outscoring the opposition 734-171, in their first two seasons of play in 2009-10, before transitioning to Division I-A.

PLAY ON: vs. Arkansas State (11/2)

TEXAS STATE (7/8)
Team Theme: THREE’S A CROWD

The Bobcats make a conference switch for the third time in three years when they head to the Sun Belt after making their first FBS appearance in the WAC last season. After stunning Houston as 34.5-point dogs in their FBS debut last season, it was pretty much downhill thereafter with Texas State’s other three wins coming against an FCS school, Idaho and New Mexico State. Nonetheless, Dennis Franchione was awarded a five-year contract extension. The 2-time National Coach of the Year and 9-time conference champ will need to do a better job of protecting the airways as his troops surrendered 200 or more passing yards in 10 of 12 games in 2012, with only groundhogs Navy and New Mexico State failing to join the club.

State You Will Like: Franchione’s 197 career wins ranks him among the Top 5 of active FBS coaches.

PLAY ON: at Texas Tech (9/21)

TROY (*3/5)
Team Theme: ONE-TWO PUNCH

Texas may own the most notable two-headed QB combo in the FBS with David Ash and Case McCoy, but Troy’s dynamic duo of senior quarterbacks Corey Robinson and Deon Anthony is right there with them as far as production is concerned. Robinson has tossed for nearly six miles of yardage (10,258 – see other accomplishments below), while Anthony passed and rushed for 1,246 yards and 17 TDs last season, leading the Sun Belt in pass efficiency. The loss of his top running back and wide receiver, along with a defense that was dead-last in the SBC in 2012, will put the coaching skills of savvy veteran Larry Blakeney to the test this season.

State You Will Like: QB Corey Robinson is the FBS active leader in pass attempts, completions and total yards entering this season.

PLAY ON: at Louisiana Lafayette (11/7)

WESTERN KENTUCKY (*7/7)
Team Theme: TOP THIS

We don’t get it. Maybe it’s the Petrino intrigue. Or perhaps, it’s the desire to shed its ‘little-brother image’ within the state of Kentucky. Whatever the case, the Hilltoppers decided that progressing from 2-22 in its inaugural two seasons at the FBS level to 16-20 (and a bowl game last season) the next three years under former alum Willie Taggart just wasn’t fast enough. Instead, like a pimply-faced virgin at the Chicken Ranch, they were intoxicated by job-hopping whore Bobby Petrino, the disgraced coach who tore down programs at Arkansas and Atlanta (Falcons) in his last two stops. Paying him nearly twice the salary ($850K) Taggart earned, he can now afford a new Hog. Maybe he’ll take wife Becky for a ride this time.

State You Will Like: RB Antonio Andrews led the nation in all-purpose yards last season with 3,161 – 2nd all-time to Oklahoma State’s Barry Sanders.

PLAY AGAINST: vs. Troy (10/26)

[StarDust Bum]

Value with Vandals


August 8, 2013


In my first college football installment, I offered up my prediction on West Virginia’s win total, which was the ‘under.’ In my second win total prediction, I’m going with the ‘over’ on a school that’s been nothing short of atrocious recently, Idaho.

The play is OVER 1 ½ (+220) – (5Dimes.eu)

This is the lowest total in college football and deservingly so. The last two seasons, Idaho has gone a combined 3-21 and 13 of the losses have been by double-digits.

I don’t expect the Vandals to earn a bowl trip this season but we only need this team to win two of their 12 games and I believe it will happen.

The new head football coach in Moscow is Paul Petrino, who is more known for being the brother of Bobby Petrino. Unlike his brother, he doesn’t have any baggage just a solid approach that has done quite well in both the NFL and big-time programs like Louisville, Arkansas and Illinois. I expect his winning attitude to spread throughout the locker room but it won’t be easy.

I would be surprised to see Idaho earn a win in the first four weeks of the season and fully expect them to go 0-4 with three of the games played on the road and the home game on Sept. 14 is against a quality school in Northern Illinois. The Vandals will be catching double-digit numbers in all of these games.

After the early gauntlet, things begin to look up for Idaho in Week 5 when Temple visits. The 3,000 mile trip will not help the Owls and even though they’ll likely be road favorites, I expect Idaho to compete and possibly win.

The sixth game of the season will be a home loss to Fresno State and the eighth game of the season, a trip to Ole miss, is also a guaranteed loss.

Sandwiched between those matchups is a road trip to Arkansas State. I know the Vandals will be underdogs once again but the Red Wolves have to replace head coach Gus Malzahn and school’s all-time leading quarterback in Ryan Aplin. Idaho could win this one.

After the trip to Arkansas, the team will return for two home games and this is where I expect Idaho to win this bet. The Vandals will host Texas State on Nov. 2 and Old Dominion on Nov. 9.

Texas State has nothing the QB position this season. Idaho will be favored and they will win in Moscow. Old Dominion won’t be an easy out and the program is on the rise, heading to Conference USA in 2014. They have a sound signal caller but I expect the travel to play a factor and give Idaho another win.

If Idaho stands at 1-9 after 10 games, they’ll be 1-10 in late November after a road trip to Florida State.

The final game of the season will be at New Mexico State on Nov. 30. Last season, Idaho beat the Aggies 26-18.

After it’s all said and done, I’m predicting a 3-9 season for Idaho, which is an ‘over’ winner in our pockets!

[StarDust Bum]

TGS backing Oregon over 'Bama

August 4, 2013

The college football regular season starts at the end of the month and we’re ready to kick off the season. Below is a look at our top five schools in this year’s preseason rankings, plus a Top 25 comparison from "The Gold Sheet" and USA Today Coaches' poll.

1) OREGON...Blasphemous not to pick an SEC team on top? Maybe. But the Ducks didn't lose any more games than Alabama last season, only to have the misfortune of suffering their loss (to Stanford) a week after the Crimson Tide endured its only setback, which allowed ‘Bama to leapfrog the Webfoots and get ahead in the queue for the BCS title game. We don't worry too much about HC Chip Kelly's departure to the NFL, either; the last time Oregon switched coaches (from Mike Bellotti to Kelly, promoted from offensive coordinator as was new HC Mark Helfrich), the Ducks merely reached the Rose Bowl for the first time in 15 years. And Helfrich has been prepped for the head job the past couple of years.

Most of the key weapons on offense return, led by a couple of legit Heisman hopefuls in QB Marcus Mariota & RB De'Anthony Thomas (watch true frosh RB Thomas Tyner, too), while last year's stop unit might have been d.c. Nick Aliotti's best in Eugene since his "Gang Green" platoon in the Rose Bowl year of 1994. The return of the entire starting secondary also suggests the Ducks can withstand expected aerial bombardments in the Pac-12. Although the Stanford showdown in the Pac-12 North will be at Palo Alto, remember that Oregon has broken the half-century mark twice in the last three vs. the Cardinal, and will have plenty of revenge motivation on The Farm.

Moreover, if the Ducks get to the Pac-12 title game, they project as decent-sized favorites for a game likely to be played at Autzen Stadium. But best of all for Oregon fans, the long-awaited NCAA penalties related to the Willie Lyles case amounted to not much more than a slap on the wrist. Who knows, we might finally get to see the Crimson Tide-Ducks matchup that we were denied last January.

2) ALABAMA...What fun would it be to forecast a ‘Bama three-peat, anyway? Although we suspect the joyless Nick Saban will have the Crimson Tide back in the title hunt as usual, remember that Alabama has needed results from elsewhere to break its way late in the regular season and conference title games the past two seasons to qualify for the BCS championship tilts. Similar challenges vs. the capable sides that dealt Saban his regular-season losses the past two years (Texas A&M & LSU) await in the regular season, and while memories of the Tide's dominating title game win over Notre Dame remain fresh in everyone's memories, last season's loss to Johnny Football and extremely narrow escapes vs. LSU and Georgia (in the SEC championship) suggest that ‘Bama really didn't outclass the field as much as it might have seemed a year ago.

Yes, the Tide is loaded with quality depth across the pitch, and should easily compensate for last year's graduation losses. And the more Katherine Webb sightings the better as boyfriend A.J. McCarron tries for his third national title as a starting QB (and maybe a Heisman), too. Don't worry, Bama will still be in the title mix, and can really jump-start its bid for a three-peat if avenging last year's loss to A&M when Eli Gold is at the microphone for the rematch at College Station on Sept. 14.

3) OHIO STATE...Had the Buckeyes decided to take their medicine a year earlier and ban themselves from a bowl in a forgettable 2011 season, Urban Meyer's first team in Columbus (and not Alabama) might well have been playing Notre Dame for the BCS title last Jan. 7 in Miami. Whatever. Meyer still hasn't lost a game at OSU and might not lose one in the upcoming regular season, either, especially vs. a suspect Big Ten slate and a non-conference schedule in which San Diego State might be the most difficult test.

That schedule and the returning talent intersect nicely once again, especially jr. QB Braxton Miller, a Heisman hopeful whose work with passing guru George Whitfield resulted in quite a sneak preview in the spring game. Questions revolve around a defense which lost seven leaders from a year ago, but replenishments are at the ready. Now, would OSU rate this highly if it played in the SEC? And would the Bucks have dare dreamed about an unbeaten season last year if faced with the sort of demanding four-game gauntlet (at Florida, South Carolina, at Texas A&M, Alabama) that LSU had to run in midseason last fall? Heck no. But OSU plays in the Big Ten and doesn't have to worry about an SEC team until perhaps the BCS final. And if it comes down to another Meyer vs. Nick Saban matchup as in the old days when Urban was at Florida, the Buckeyes would at least have the more likeable (if only slightly) coach.

4) GEORGIA...Truth be told, I voted for Georgia to win the conference at SEC Media Days in Birmingham, but the masses at the Wynfrey Hotel preferred Alabama once more, so putting the Bulldogs down a couple of notches from the top is no problem in the summer months. Besides, Georgia's BCS hopes are in danger of taking a huge hit before we reach September if the Dawgs can't survive their dangerous opener at Death Valley against Clemson. But HC Mark Richt knows what's coming (the tough early-season slate also includes South Carolina and LSU in the first month), and let everyone in Birmingham know that UGa won't be caught off guard. "We'll be ready," said the coach.

Meanwhile, longtime o.c. Mike Bobo must feel like a kid in a candy shop with sr. Heisman candidate QB Aaron Murray and a collection of established skill-position weapons that includes RB Todd Gurley, who has made Dawg Nation forget about Isaiah Crowell (he's now at Alabama State, by the way). SEC sources also suspect the loss of eight starters from last year's sometimes-underachieving defense might actually be a plus, with a mix of experienced backups and hungry blue-chip recruits ready to step into the fray. True, there are plenty of trip wires as usual in the slate, and a possible SEC title game rematch vs. ‘Bama looms in December. But remember that many SEC powerhouses have made BCS title games before with one loss (or even two, as was the case with 2007 LSU).

5) STANFORD...Once the Cardinal uncovered a playmaker at QB late last fall with now-sophomore Kevin Hogan, the Tree added the sort of extra dimension it lacked earlier in the season when losing at Washington and Notre Dame. With Hogan and most of the latest road-grading OL back in the fold, Stanford can avenge those defeats this fall and probably navigate around most of the other land mines on the schedule except for perhaps a revenge-minded Oregon, which visits Palo Alto for a Thursday night ESPN special in early November.

While the offense has garnered plenty of headlines the past couple of seasons, it has been a granite-like defense that has placed the Tree in three consecutive BCS bowls, and this fall's platoon might be the best of those recent editions. As for HC David Shaw, we think he's proven he knows what he's doing. Now what they have to worry about on The Farm is if the NFL comes calling again for the latest Stanford coach (John Ralston, Bill Walsh, Dennis Green, Jim Harbaugh...see the pattern?).


2013 Preseason Rankings

The Gold Sheet USA Today Coaches
Rank School Rank School
1 Oregon 1 Alabama
2 Alabama 2 Ohio State
3 Ohio State 3 Oregon
4 Georgia 4 Stanford
5 Stanford 5 Georgia
6 LSU 6 Texas A&M
7 South Carolina 7 South Carolina
8 Clemson 8 Clemson
9 Boise State 9 Louisville
10 Florida State 10 Florida
11 Texas A&M 11 Notre Dame
12 Texas 12 Florida State
13 Northwestern 13 LSU
14 Louisville 14 Oklahoma State
15 Michigan 15 Texas
16 Florida 16 Oklahoma
17 Wisconsin 17 Michigan
18 Oklahoma State 18 Nebraska
19 Oklahoma 19 Boise State
20 Notre Dame 20 TCU
21 Arizona State 21 UCLA
22 TCU 22 Northwestern
23 UCLA 23 Wisconsin
24 Baylor 24 USC
25 Georgia Tech 25 Oregon State
Conference Breakdown Conference Breakdown
SEC (6) Big 12 (5) Big 10 (4) Pac-12 (4) ACC (3) MWC (1) AAC (1) Ind (1) SEC (6) Pac-12 (5) Big 10 (5) Big-12 (4) ACC (2) MWC (1) AAC (1) Ind (1)



Looking above, you can see that the TGS and USA Today Coaches Poll have 22 similar schools in our rankings, including the Top 5 as well but not in order.

Despite the similarities, we do have some differences, a couple glaring ones as well.

We feel stronger about Arizona State (21) , Baylor (24) and Georgia Tech (25), while the coaches have backed Nebraska (18), USC (24) and Oregon State (35).

If you’re looking for teams that we have rated higher, we’re buying LSU (6), Boise State (9) and Northwestern (22).

The coaches are buying Notre Dame at No. 11 while we have them ranked 20th in our preseason poll. We’re also not believing the hype just yet, on two schools (Texas A&M, Louisville) that arguably boast the two best quarterbacks in the nation.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF Games of the Year: Huskers line could grow vs. MSU

NCAAF Week 12: Michigan State Spartans at Nebraska Cornhuskers(-4)

Past History: Nebraska is 5-0 SU/ATS, the O/U is 3-2 since 1995.

Early look at the Spartans: Michigan State has a win total of 8.5 this season; it was 4-1 SU/ATS on the road last year. With its annual rivalry game vs. the Wolverines on November 2, the Spartans will have two full weeks off before playing in Nebraska.

Early look at the Cornhuskers: Nebraska has a win total of 9.5 this season; it was 7-1 SU and 5-2-1 ATS at home last year. The Cornhuskers are at Michigan on November 9, before hosting the Spartans. They then hit the road once again to play at Penn State the following week.

Where this line will move: This is a tough one. As a "situational handicapper", the oddsmakers would seemingly be right on the money with this line. Depending on injuries and what each team's record is coming into this contest, I wouldn't be surprised to see this line climb a little higher (a full point) as the public jumps on the proven home side performer.

[StarDust Bum]

SEC East Schedule Outlook

August 13, 2013


The SEC will look to continue its dominance in the final season of the BCS system. In recent years, the West has had the edge over the East, but there are contenders from the East side this season ready to make a run at the conference title. Here is a look at the schedules ahead for the seven teams in the SEC East.

Florida Gators: Florida played one of the toughest schedules in the nation last season, but ended up 11-1 and in the Sugar Bowl. That game featured an embarrassing loss for the SEC as Louisville beat the Gators soundly. Will Muschamp is in his third season in Gainesville in the post-Urban Meyer era and expectations will remain high after the strong results last season. Florida has one of the toughest schedules in this division again and another season falling short of the East title seems most likely.

West Draw: Arkansas and LSU

Toughest Back-to-Back: The toughest set of games for Florida may be back-to-back road games in October, playing at LSU and then at Missouri. While Missouri is not likely in the same class as LSU, it will be a tough situation in that scheduling spot and the Gators barely won in a 14-7 home win against Missouri last season. A big home game with Arkansas is before the LSU game and that October stretch will dictate how far the Gators can go this season.

Biggest Non-Conference Game: While the finale with Florida State has the potential to be a huge game, in recent years it has not had significant national implications. An early September game at Miami will be the more important game to set the stage for the season as an early loss would be a severe blow to the season goals for the Gators. Florida has not played Miami since 2008 and the Hurricanes will be ready for a big early test.

Georgia Bulldogs: The Bulldogs had a favorable slate in the conference last season, which helped them advance to the SEC championship game, where they nearly took out eventual national champion Alabama. Georgia does have to play LSU this season, something they did not have to do last season, but the Bulldogs should again be a contender in the East. A huge non-conference game to open the season will set the tone for the year and Georgia has most of its big games in the first few weeks of the season as they will either rise towards the top or fall into the pack after the first month.

West Draw: LSU and Auburn

Toughest Back-to-Back: Georgia has an experienced offense and they will need it right off the bat with two of the biggest games of the season in the first two weeks. Opening the year at Clemson will be a huge clash for two title hopefuls and a key SEC vs. ACC matchup. Georgia then opens the SEC season looking to avenge an ugly 35-7 loss from last season as they will host South Carolina in a game that should play a prominent role in deciding the SEC East champion.

Biggest Non-Conference Game: There is no question that the opener at Clemson is the biggest game for Georgia outside of the SEC season and it will be one of the most important games in the national picture in the opening weekend. Georgia has lost its last two prominent season openers, falling to Oklahoma State in 2009 and losing to Boise State in 2011, putting even more emphasis on this game.

Kentucky Wildcats: The hiring of Mark Stoops has brought some Kentucky fans to the football field with some renewed excitement for the program following an ugly 2-10 season. Kentucky has not been to a bowl game the last two seasons and that will be a tough task this season as one of the two teams in this division that has to play Alabama. A very tough set of home games is waiting for Kentucky and while a slight improvement is possible for the Wildcats it will likely be another losing season with this slate in a transition season.

West Draw: Alabama and Mississippi State

Toughest Back-to-Back: The SEC season will open with a bang for Kentucky facing Florida, South Carolina, and Alabama in three consecutive weeks. Kentucky will be a sizable underdog in all three games and it could take a physical and mental toll on a young team and a new coaching staff, especially after a far from easy non-conference set to open the season.

Biggest Non-Conference Game: The home game with Louisville will get extra attention this season in a big rivalry game and with the Cardinals likely to open the season highly ranked and projected as a possible undefeated team. While Louisville has won the last two meetings, it has been a relatively close game and generally an even series over the years.

Missouri Tigers: While Texas A&M had instant success in the move to the SEC, Missouri had worse fortune, snapping a run of seven straight winning seasons in a 5-7 campaign. Missouri had four losses by 19 points or more as they were not able to compete with the top tier teams in the conference. With winnable games in the non-conference schedule and avoiding Alabama and LSU, the prospects could improve for the Tigers this season although the home slate in conference play is very difficult and several wins may need to come on the road if Missouri is to get back in the bowl picture.

West Draw: Mississippi and Texas A&M

Toughest Back-to-Back: Missouri is going to have to play Georgia and Florida in back-to-back weeks in mid-October with the game in Athens as a second straight road game following up the SEC opener and then the home date with Florida a week before homecoming. For Missouri to get into the postseason, they will likely need at least one significant upset win and they will have to be able to stay focused through a very tough start to the conference season.

Biggest Non-Conference Game: One thing Missouri has going for it this year that points to possible improvement is a non-conference slate that could be swept. Toledo and Indiana are certainly going to provide a solid test, but those are games Missouri can win. The game at Indiana will be a big one with the elevated expectations for the Hoosiers and the rare SEC vs. Big 10 matchup that is rarely seen outside of the bowl season. A tricky game at home against Arkansas State in a possible letdown spot will be waiting after that game as well.

South Carolina Gamecocks: In a 6-0 start last season, South Carolina could have made a case as the best team in the nation, and they rose up to #3 in the polls after blowing out Georgia. The Gamecocks will be in the mix again this season and they are able to drop LSU from the schedule, which should help the cause as that was one of two losses last season. South Carolina will open and close the season with prominent non-conference games with quality ACC teams, but this is a relatively favorable SEC draw outside of the early trip to Georgia and three consecutive road games in the middle of the season.

West Draw: Arkansas and Mississippi State

Toughest Back-to-Back: The opening two games of the season could be the biggest of the year for South Carolina and potentially the most difficult. North Carolina is a formidable ACC foe to open with in primetime Thursday night to kick off the season and one of the biggest games of the SEC East season will be in Week 2 as South Carolina plays at Georgia, taking a three-game winning streak in that series into the game. South Carolina will play four road games in five weeks in a challenging stretch in the middle of the season, but none of that will carry much relevance unless the Gamecocks take care of the first two games of the season.

Biggest Non-Conference Game: The opener with North Carolina will potentially be more important, but the finale with Clemson is the biggest game with South Carolina taking each of the last four meetings to match its longest win streak in the history of the rivalry. A lot could be at stake in the national picture for both teams and even if not, it is a fierce rivalry that will always warrant attention.

Tennessee Volunteers: A once regular powerhouse, Tennessee has not won more than seven games since 2007 and now has its fourth head coach in five years. The scheduling draw forces the Volunteers to play Alabama this season, but two of the three games against the projected top three in the East will be at home. Three of the four non-conference games should result in wins which will be critical for a team that has won just five games each of the last two seasons and rising into the bowl picture is a possibility with this slate, though advancing much higher than 6-6 since seems unlikely in this transition season with new coach Butch Jones.

West Draw: Alabama and Auburn

Toughest Back-to-Back: Two pairs of games can make a strong case for this distinction with a brutal road duo at Oregon and then at Florida early in the season, likely making the best case given the taxing travel. Playing South Carolina at home and then at Alabama the next week will certainly be a taxing stretch as well, but Tennessee does at least have a bye week before that set, something they may need with the Georgia game preceding it in a tough overall schedule.

Biggest Non-Conference Game: Playing in Eugene in a big national game in mid-September will be a big thrill for the players and a chance to shine on the national stage against an elite program. Tennessee should be 2-0 entering that game and it will be a great opportunity to at least gain some credibility back for the program before heading into the SEC season.

Vanderbilt Commodores: Bowl bids in 208 and 2011 were a nice story for Vanderbilt, but last season, the Commodores took success to a new level with a 9-4 season, including a bowl win over NC State. The schedule should actually be easier outside of the conference this season but a very tough set of SEC road games is ahead. The draw from the West is difficult although it does not include Alabama or LSU. Another bowl season is possible for Vanderbilt, but a step-back in record seems likely as this team won several close games last season in conference play with three wins by four points or less.

West Draw: Mississippi and Texas A&M

Toughest Back-to-Back: While there are bye weeks on both sides of it, the late October set with a home game against Georgia and a road game at Texas A&M will be very difficult. While Vanderbilt had a great season last year, they lost by 45 against Georgia last season and there still seems to be a big gap between the top tier teams. A win in either game would be a huge season-making event for Vanderbilt.

Biggest Non-Conference Game: Vanderbilt has one of the weakest non-conference schedules in the conference with only the finale with Wake Forest presenting a major conference threat. That may be a critical game for a team that could be on the edge of bowl eligibility if they are not able to match the close game success of last season.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF Games of the Year: Beavers out to make statement at Utah

NCAAF Week 3: Oregon State Beavers at Utah Utes (+3.5)

Past History: Oregon State is 2-2 SU, 3-1 ATS, 1-3 O/U since 2007.

Early look at the Beavers: Oregon State has a win total of 8.5 this season and was 3-2 SU and ATS on the road last year. With a couple of cream puffs at home to start the season (vs. Eastern Michigan and Hawaii) the competition level raises dramatically for the Beavers starting Week 3.

Early look at the Utes: Utah has a win total of 5.5 this season. It was 4-2 SU and ATS at home last year. The Utes have three straight home games before hitting the road to take on BYU in Week 4.

Where this line will move: With a tough game at SDSU next week, this will likely prove to be a statement game for the Beavers. This is the Utes' first league battle as well though. Depending on injuries and what each team's record is coming into this contest, I wouldn't be surprised to see the line drop half a point as the public jumps on the proven home side performer.

[StarDust Bum]

SEC West Schedule Outlook

August 16, 2013


The SEC will look to continue its dominance in the final season of the BCS system. In recent years, the West has had the edge over the East with four straight SEC and national championships coming from this division. Here is a look at the schedules ahead for the seven teams in the SEC West.

Alabama Crimson Tide: Looking for a fourth national championship in five years, Alabama returns as the favorite in this division, though they have failed to win this division two of the last three years. Two of the biggest games of the season will be the first two games with a big non-conference game with Virginia Tech and then the SEC opener and a huge revenge game at Texas A&M. LSU will be visiting Tuscaloosa this year and Alabama has a very favorable draw from the East division. This is certainly a schedule conducive to another great season for the Crimson Tide.

East Draw: Kentucky and Tennessee

Toughest Back-to-Back: The schedule lines up well and while the first two games are both huge games, there is a bye week in between. Alabama has lost a conference home game in each of the last three seasons and the homestand with Arkansas and Tennessee visiting in late October might be a spot to catch the Crimson Tide as they will be looking ahead to the big showdown with LSU. While it would be a huge upset for Alabama to lose one of those games, they may come in as a hefty favorite with a less than full focus and effort and one of the underdogs might at least provide a scare for the Tide.

Biggest Non-Conference Game: The opening game with Virginia Tech in Atlanta will be a big national stage for both teams. Last season, Alabama passed an early test with Michigan in a similar setting and the Hokies will pose a threat despite being a sizable underdog and it will be statement opportunity for the Crimson Tide to start convincingly on top of the polls.

Arkansas Razorbacks: After a thoroughly disappointing 4-8 season, Arkansas made a splash with the hiring of Bret Bielema away from Wisconsin. It will be a challenging schedule in the first year with a very difficult East draw and a gauntlet of consecutive big games in the middle of the season. The games with both Alabama and LSU are on the road as Arkansas will face one of the toughest schedules in the nation. The non-conference schedule can present some opportunities for wins and there is returning talent on this team, so an upset or two and an improvement in record is very likely although a big jump with this slate seems to be a long shot.

East Draw: Florida and South Carolina

Toughest Back-to-Back: Playing South Carolina for homecoming and then visiting Alabama the next week will be the toughest two-game stretch and those games could be made even more difficult depending on the results of the previous games, playing at Rutgers, hosting Texas A&M, and then playing at Florida for one of the toughest run of big games any team in the nation will face.

Biggest Non-Conference Game: While a Rutgers/Arkansas game won’t move the national needle too significantly, it will be a big test for both teams. Rutgers won at Arkansas last season in what seemed like a big upset at the time and the Knights were a nine-win team last season. That will be the first road game of the season for Arkansas and Bielema did not have a great deal of road success in his time at Wisconsin.

Auburn Tigers: After a devastating 3-9 season, just two years removed from a perfect championship season, Auburn released head coach Gene Chizik and brought back Guz Malzahn after his one year run at Arkansas State. Auburn went 0-8 in SEC play last season, so there is a lot of room for improvement, but the first season schedule will be difficult. Two fairly tough non-conference games will kick off the season, though both are at home and a difficult East draw that includes Georgia is also waiting along with four very difficult SEC road games.

East Draw: Tennessee and Georgia

Toughest Back-to-Back: Playing on the road in back-to-back weeks at Arkansas and at Tennessee should be the most critical stretch of the season for Auburn. The Tigers do not look ready to compete with LSU and Alabama, but they could move up in the standings if they can win one of those tricky road games. A home game with Georgia will also follow up that set of back-to-back road games.

Biggest Non-Conference Game: The opener against Washington State will be a big tone setting game for Malzahn and the new look at Auburn. Washington State appears to be a program on the rise and it will be a huge game for both teams for the opening weekend and the winner could get a great start towards a possible bowl season run.

LSU Tigers: LSU has produced a double-digit win season in six of the last eight years, but last season proved a bit disappointing with two conference losses and a defeat in its bowl game. Unlike many SEC teams, LSU routinely takes on a difficult non-conference game each year and that will continue this season with a huge opening game. LSU also will be facing a very tough conference schedule with two of the top teams drawn from the East division as well as having to play Alabama on the road. The talent is there for another big year but there are some big hurdles to clear.

East Draw: Georgia and Florida

Toughest Back-to-Back: The final two games of the season are both at home, but facing Texas A&M and Arkansas in back-to-back weeks to close the season could be a great challenge. The Alabama game and then a bye week will precede the final duo of games and the result of that clash could be season changing, making focus a bit difficult for two upset-minded foes late in the year.

Biggest Non-Conference Game: LSU will play TCU to open the season at Cowboys Stadium and close to home for the Horned Frogs in a huge Big XII vs. SEC showdown. LSU will be a solid favorite, but TCU has certainly been a great program in recent years and it should be huge game for both teams to start the season.

Mississippi State Bulldogs: Given the lack of success in the previous decade, Dan Mullen has done a solid job to stabilize Mississippi State into a competent and competitive program. Bulldogs fans may be frustrated with the failure to take down one of the top teams, but with bowl trips in three of the last four years, it has been a solid run, even with an ugly bowl loss last season. The schedule is daunting this season and a step-back season seems likely after winning eight games last year. Patience may be wearing thin even though the program is in much better shape than it was a few years ago.

East Draw: Kentucky and South Carolina

Toughest Back-to-Back: Mississippi State will kick off November with two difficult road games, playing at South Carolina and then at Texas A&M in back-to-back weeks. The home date with Alabama will follow up that road trip as November will likely be a rough month for the Bulldogs.

Biggest Non-Conference Game: The SEC will be an underdog to open the season as Mississippi State plays Oklahoma State in Houston in a Big XII vs. SEC clash. It will be a big opportunity for the Bulldogs to hold up well against a highly ranked team that many project to win the Big XII.

Mississippi Rebels: In just his second year in Oxford, Coach Freeze is coming off a big recruiting season and after a solid 7-6 debut to follow up a 2-10 season, the Rebels appear to be heading upward. This is an experienced team and the schedule while difficult, is more favorable than most of the counterparts in this division. Ole Miss will play Texas A&M and LSU at home and the East draw is favorable, missing the likely top three teams on the other side. A big non-conference game at Texas is also lurking and expectations may also play a bigger role this season for the Rebels.

East Draw: Vanderbilt and Missouri

Toughest Back-to-Back: Two big SEC West games will come early in the season playing at Alabama and at Auburn in back-to-back weeks. Mississippi will play four of the first five games on the road with those two being the final two in that difficult stretch and Mississippi will need to find a way to survive a very challenging first month.

Biggest Non-Conference Game: Last season, Texas crushed Mississippi, 66-31 even in a down year for the Longhorns and this season, the Rebels will play in Austin. Proving that Ole Miss is ready to compete with the top tier schools in the nation will be a big step for this program and a win would bring great credibility to the program.

Texas A&M Aggies: The size of the cloud left by the off-field situation surrounding Johnny Manziel is yet to be determined, but many signs are pointing downward for the Aggies after a stunning 11-2 season last year, taking the SEC by storm. Everyone will be ready for the Aggies this season, but Texas A&M does have a relatively favorable schedule this season getting Alabama at home, a favorable East draw, and no real tests in non-conference play. It should be another strong season for Texas A&M if the distractions do not consume the program.

East Draw: Vanderbilt and Missouri

Toughest Back-to-Back: While the season will revolve around the Alabama game, facing two tricky road games in the final two weeks of the season could play a bigger role in where Texas A&M lands for the postseason. To close November, Texas A&M will be at LSU and then at Missouri and repeating a 5-0 record on the road last year will not be easy for the Aggies.

Biggest Non-Conference Game: While there is not a lot of heft on the non-conference slate, the game with SMU will follow up the Alabama game and could be a challenging letdown spot. SMU lost 48-3 last season in the matchup, but will be ready for a better showing and the coaches have experience against one another.

[StarDust Bum]

Pac-12 Conference Preview: Can Ducks Fly Without Kelly?

Chip Kelly’s four year run at Oregon was an amazing one. The Ducks finished in the top four in each of his last three years at the school. Oregon went 46-7 in Kelly’s time at Eugene. Kelly is now the head coach of the Philadelphia Eagles, and Mark Helfrich is now in charge at Oregon. David Shaw has done an amazing job at Stanford, and they can’t be discounted after winning the Pac-12 title last season.

Can any of the other Pac-12 teams make a serious run for the title in 2013?

Oregon Ducks (2012: 12-1 SU, 8-5 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +165
Season win total: 11

Why bet the Ducks: While Kelly may be gone, most of the talent he assembled is still here. The combination of Marcus Mariota and De’Anthony Thomas in the backfield may be the most dangerous in all of college football. Mariota was great in his freshman season, and I expect a special sophomore season. Thomas is arguably the best play maker in college football. This defense is much better than most realize, and they have a couple stars at cornerback.

Why not bet the Ducks: Michael Clay and Dion Jordan are now in the NFL, and that will hurt this defense. Getting a consistent pass rush might be a problem for the Ducks this season. Thomas isn’t a true running back, and the Ducks aren’t quite as deep at the tailback spot as they have been in recent years.

Season win total pick: Under 11

Stanford Cardinal (2012: 12-2 SU, 9-5 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +425
Season win total: 9.5

Why bet the Cardinal: David Shaw is 23-4 in his first two years at the school. At this point, it is clear that Shaw is an elite coach. Stanford has the personnel to dominate in the trenches on both sides of the ball, and that is tough for most teams to matchup with. It is next to impossible to run the ball against this defense. The Stanford front seven is arguably the best in college football.

Why not bet the Cardinal: Stanford lost its three best skill position players on offense. Stepfan Taylor was a tough runner who will be hard to replace. Without tight ends Zach Ertz and Levine Toilolo, Kevin Hogan won’t have as much of a security blanket on third downs. The front seven on defense is great, but the secondary is still a question mark.

Season win total pick: Over 9.5

USC Trojans (2012: 7-6 SU, 3-10 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +600
Season win total: 9.5

Why bet the Trojans: Clancy Pendergast should do a good job with this Trojans defense. He is installing a 5-2 system which should benefit this unit since they have a lot of talent on the defensive line. The Trojans defense should be quite a bit better in 2013. USC probably has the nation’s best wide receiver in Marqise Lee.

Why not bet the Trojans: How did the team get better by losing a terrific quarterback in Matt Barkley? USC only managed to go 7-6 last year, and expectations are much higher without any real positive catalyst on the horizon. Sure, there is talent at USC, but this team has been loaded with talent the last few seasons without much to show for it.

Season win total pick: Under 9.5

UCLA Bruins 12: 9-5 SU, 8-6 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +675
Season win total: 6.5

Why bet the Bruins: Jim Mora Jr. did a great job with this team in his first-year on the job, and he has a lot of talent back for his second season in Westwood. Brett Hundley is going to be special at the quarterback spot. Hundley has the tools to do it all. UCLA’s linebackers are as good as any in the conference.

Why not bet the Bruins: Johnathan Franklin was an amazing talent at running back, and this team is going to have some real trouble replacing him. While the UCLA linebackers are amazing, the rest of the defense is a real weakness. The secondary may be the worst in the Pac-12, and the defensive line isn’t any good at stopping the run.

Season win total pick: Over 6.5

Arizona Wildcats (2012: 8-5 SU, 6-7 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +800
Season win total: 7.5

Why bet the Wildcats: Rich Rodriguez’s system seemed to work well at Arizona last year. The Wildcats have one of the most favorable schedules in the Pac-12. The Wildcats defense returns all 11 starters from a year ago. Ka’Deem Carey is one of the best runners in the conference, and he’ll get his chance to shine this season.

Why not bet the Wildcats: Matt Scott is gone, and he was tremendous for Rodriguez’s spread offense last year. B.J. Denker is the probable new starter, but he has some big shoes to fill. The defense returns all 11 starters, but is that really a good thing?! Arizona allowed more yards than any other team in the conference last season.

Season win total pick: Over 7.5

Oregon State Beavers (2012: 9-4 SU, 8-5 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +900
Season win total: 8.5

Why bet the Beavers: Oregon State has one of the best receivers in the country in Brandin Cooks. Storm Woods was awesome as a freshman last year, and his sophomore season should be a great one. The Beavers defense was the reason the team improved so much last year, and much of the core of that unit returns again this season.

Why not bet the Beavers: The starting quarterback situation isn’t a good one. Cody Vaz and Sean Mannion shared time last year, and neither of them was very good. Going into the season without knowing who your starter is generally isn’t a recipe for success. The team is missing two great defensive tackles from a year ago, and that could hurt their run defense.

Season win total pick: Over 8.5

Arizona State Sun Devils (2012: 8-5 SU, 8-5 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +1000
Season win total: 7.5

Why bet the Sun Devils: Taylor Kelly is poised to become a star in Todd Graham’s system at Arizona State. Kelly was number nine nationally in pass efficiency last year, and his versatility helps this team immensely. Marion Grice and D.J. Foster give the team a very good tailback tandem. Star Defensive Tackle Will Sutton passed up the NFL, which was a huge boost to the defense.

Why not bet the Sun Devils: Arizona State is lacking play makers at the wide receiver spot. Kelly can air it out with the best of them, but he has to have someone to throw the ball to. The secondary doesn’t have much depth, and any injuries in this area could be disastrous. The Sun Devils beat only two bowl-eligible teams in 2012.

Season win total pick: Over 7.5

Washington Huskies (2012: 7-6 SU, 8-5 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +1400
Season win total: 7.5

Why bet the Huskies: Keith Price and Bishop Sankey give the team tons of talent in the backfield at all times. Sankey ran for 1,439 yards in his first year on the job last year. Price had a down season last year, but he has all the talent to bounce back with a big year if he gets some better blocking.

Why not bet the Huskies: This offensive line is one of the worst in the conference. Price was constantly scrambling around and looking to throw the ball away last year. The defense lost its top player in Desmond Trufant. Without Trufant, the secondary won’t be even close to as good as they were a year ago.

Season win total pick: Under 7.5

Utah Utes (2012: 5-7 SU, 5-7 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +2000
Season win total: 5.5

Why bet the Utes: Travis Wilson should be much better in his second year under center. He has a couple good receivers on the outside in Kenneth Scott and Dres Anderson. The Utes defense is going to be a feisty bunch again this year, and they seem to always outperform expectations. Utah has one of the best home field advantages in the Pac-12.

Why not bet the Utes: The Utes are sure to miss defensive tackle Star Lotulelei. He was one of the best defensive players in the country last year. Wilson doesn’t have much help in the running game, and that is going to put a lot of pressure on him. Utah just doesn’t have the offensive talent that most teams in this conference have.

Season win total pick: Under 5.5

California Golden Bears (2012: 3-9 SU, 3-9 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +5000
Season win total: 4

Why bet the Golden Bears: Sonny Dykes brings a fast-paced offense to Berkeley, and he should be a good hire for the team. With low expectations, it won’t take too much for Cal to beat the number quite a few times this season. The defensive line is solid.

Why not bet the Golden Bears: Dykes inherits a team that simply doesn’t have that much talent. They lost their starting quarterback, top two running backs, and star receiver from last year’s team. In addition, they lost five of their top six defenders from last season. The schedule is brutal for Cal, and they’ll probably only be favored a couple times all year.

Season win total pick: Under 4

Washington State Cougars (2012: 3-9 SU, 5-6-1 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +5000
Season win total: 4.5

Why bet the Cougars: Mike Leach proved how good of a coach he was in his time at Texas Tech, and you have to assume this team will be much better in his second season at the helm. Connor Halliday has the tools to be a good quarterback, and I expect a much better performance from him now that he has a year in this system under his belt.

Why not bet the Cougars: Even if the team is better than it was a year ago, the Cougars might not have a chance to prove it. Washington State’s schedule is much tougher than it was last season. Their first two games of the season are at Auburn and at USC. The Cougars are lacking play makers on the offensive side of the ball.

Season win total pick: Under 4.5

Colorado Buffaloes (2012: 1-11 SU, 3-9 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +17000
Season win total: 3.5

Why bet the Buffaloes: Mike MacIntyre proved the type of coach he is with an amazing transformation of the San Jose State football program. True freshmen started 57 games for Colorado in 2012, which means this group should certainly get better in the next couple seasons.

Why not bet the Buffaloes: This team wasn’t even competitive a year ago. The Buffaloes lost 69-14 at Fresno State. They also lost 51-17 at home against Arizona State. It’s hard to imagine this team going from awful to competitive in one season. Team depth is an issue almost everywhere you look on this roster.

Season win total pick: Under 3.5

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF Games of the Year: Irish-Sun Devils close to pick in Texas

NCAAF Week 6 Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs. Arizona State Sun Devils (in Arlington, TX) (+2)

Past History: These teams have played twice in the last 20 years (1998, 1999). The Irish were 2-0 SU/ATS, 1-1 O/U.

Early look at the Fighting Irish: Notre Dame has a win total of 9.5 this season; it was 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS on the road last year. The Irish have one of the nation's most difficult schedules, playing vs. Michigan State and Oklahoma in the two respective weeks before this contest, then hosting USC.

Early look at the Sun Devils: Arizona State has a win total of 9.5 this season; it was 4-2 SU/ATS at home last year. After hosting Sacramento State in their opener, the Sun Devils then host Wisconsin, are at Stanford and then host USC before welcoming the Irish.

Where this line will move: Both teams have tough schedules. History would say that Notre Dame is going to have a hard time duplicating the success it enjoyed last year. Home-field advantage can't be overlooked in this particular matchup. Depending on injuries and what each team's record is coming into this contest, I wouldn't be surprised to see this line drop closer to a pick.

[StarDust Bum]

2013 Mountain West Preview

August 20, 2013

Skinny: Sportsbook.ag has Boise State as the even-money ‘chalk’ to win the Mountain West Conference. Fresno State has the second-shortest odds (+160) at the offshore website (risk $100 to win $160).

Boise St., Fresno St. and San Diego State finished in a three-way tie for first place in the MWC last season. Each school had a 7-1 record in conference play.

BSU returns five starters on offense and four on defense from an 11-2 team that capped the season with a 28-26 win over Washington at the Las Vegas Bowl. Finally, the Broncos got a game-winning field goal against the Huskies after their place-kickers had let them down in so many tight games through the years.

Chris Petersen now owns an incredible 84-8 record in seven seasons at Boise St. For whatever reasons, there are still plenty of pundits that don’t give Petersen or this program the credit it deserves. For instance, the Broncos have won seven of their eight games against BCS competition since 2008 with just two of those victories coming on the smurf turf.

Boise St. has beaten Oregon (twice), Georgia, Oregon St., Washington, Arizona St. and Va. Tech. The Broncos only face on BCS foe this season, opening the year at Washington in a rematch of the Las Vegas Bowl. They play at BYU on a Friday night in another tough non-conference matchup.

Senior quarterback Joe Southwick showed improvement throughout his first year as the starter. He completed 66.8 percent of his throws for 2,730 yards with a 19/7 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

Junior WR Matt Miller is back after earning first-team All-MWC honors in 2012. Miller hauled in 66 receptions for 769 yards and five TDs. RB D.J. Harper is gone but rising sophomore Jay Ajayi is poised for a monster campaign after averaging 6.7 yards per carry last year. Ajavi rushed for 548 yards and four TDs.

The BSU defense is led by All-American candidate Demarcus Lawrence, a junior DE who had 9.5 sacks and four tackles for loss in 2012. Senior DT Ricky Tjong-A-Tjoe and junior DT Tyler Horn (5 sacks LY) help Lawrence form the best front four in the MWC.

Boise St. has a season win total of 9.5 (‘over’ -160, ‘under’ +130). The Broncos play all five of their toughest games on the road – at Washington, at Fresno St., at Utah St., at BYU and at San Diego St.

Utah State is BSU’s toughest competition in the Mountain Division. The Aggies own 7/1 odds to win the MWC Championship Game. They have a season win total of 7.5 (‘over’ -150, ‘under’ +110).

Junior QB Chuckie Keeton has guided his team to back-to-back bowl appearances. Prior to his arrival, Utah St. hadn’t been to the postseason since 1997. Keeton has a 38/11 career TD-INT ratio. He completed 67.5 percent of his throws last season for 3,373 yards and 27 TDs. Keeton also rushed for 619 yards and eight TDs, averaging 4.8 yards per carry.

Utah St. compiled an 11-2 record both SU and ATS in 2012. However, head coach Gary Andersen is gone after taking the Wisconsin job. Matt Wells, who had been on Andersen’s staff for two years and was the offensive coordinator in 2012, is the new head coach.

The Aggies return seven starters on both offense and defense. The ‘D’ gave up only 15.4 points per game last season.

The rest of the division is garbage for the most part. Air Force and Wyoming might make it to bowl games. The Cowboys have one of the MWC’s best singal callers in junior Brett Smith, who posted a 27/6 TD-INT ratio last year.

Fresno St. figures to get plenty of competition for the West Division from both San Diego St. and San Jose St.,. The Bulldogs bring back eight starters on both offense and defense after going 9-4 SU and 11-2 ATS in Tim DeRuyter’s first year at the helm.

Senior QB Derek Carr could be a sleeper Heisman Trophy candidate. Carr connected on 67.3 percent of his passes for 4,104 yards with a 37/7 TD-INT ratio as a junior. He will miss workhorse RB Robbie Rouse (1,490 yds. & 12 TDs), but WRs Davante Adams and Isaiah Burse are back in the fold.

Adams had 102 catches for 1,312 yards and 14 TDs in 2012. Burse hauled in 57 receptions for 851 yards and six scores. Fresno must face both the Aztecs and the Spartans on the road.

San Jose St. went 11-2 both SU and ATS in its last campaign in the WAC. The success led to the exit of head coach Mike MacIntyre to take the Colorado job. The new man in charge is Ron Caragher, who went 44-22 since replacing Jim Harbaugh as the HC at San Diego.

SJS quarterback David Fales might be the most underrated player in the country, but you can bet your ass that NFL scout are all over this kid. Fales produced video-game numbers in 2012, completing 72.5 percent of his passes for 4,193 yards with a 33/9 TD-INT ratio.

Like Fales, senior WR Noel Grigsby doesn’t get much hype but going to play on Sundays in the future, too. Grigsby had 82 catches for 1,307 yards and nine TDs last year.

The Spartans return seven starters on offense and five on defense. They beat Bowling Green by a 29-20 count as 7.5-point favorites at the Military Bowl.

Rocky Long’s squad went 9-4 SU and 8-5 ATS last season. San Diego St. brings back six starters on offense and nine on defense. The Aztecs’ offense will feature junior RB Adam Muema, who rushed for 1,458 yards and 16 TDs while averaging 6.2 YPC in 2012. SDS should have a stout defensive unit led by Nat Berhe and Jake Fely.

The Aztecs have two chances to make national splashes in September, going to The ‘Shoe to face Ohio St. in Week 2. Also, they host Oregon St. on Sep. 21 after enjoying an open date.

Since going 13-1 in 2010 with Colin Kaepernick running the show, Nevada has posted back-to-back 7-6 seasons. The Wolf Pack is 10-16 ATS during that span.

Chris Ault, the school’s long-time coach and innovator of the famed Pistol offense, has stepped down. Brian Polian is the new head coach after serving as the special-teams coach on Kevin Sumlin’s staff at Texas A&M last season.

Nevada dropped a 49-48 heartbreaker to Arizona at the New Mexico Bowl. The Wolf Pack has six starters on offense and five on defense returning. They lost seven of their top eight tacklers from a suspect unit that surrendered 33.8 PPG.

QB Cody Fajardo is back for his junior campaign and third season as the starter under center. In 2012, Fajardo completed 67.0 percent of his passes for 2,786 yards with a 20/9 TD-INT ratio. He rushed for 1,121 yards and 12 TDs while averaging 5.9 YPC.

Hawaii and UNLV round out the division and have head coaches (Norm Chow & Bobby Hauck) on the hot seat. Both could be looking at pink slips in early December.

Fearless Predictions:

Boise State over Fresno State in MWC Championship Game

Mountain West - 2013 Projections


School Record Win Total (5Dimes) Bowl Projection


Mountain Division

Boise State 10-2 10 ½ Las Vegas vs. Arizona State

Utah State 9-3 7 ½ Hawaii vs. Bowling Green

Air Force 6-6 6 ½ -

Wyoming 6-6 5 ½ -

New Mexico 4-8 4 ½ -

Colorado State 3-9 5 ½ -


West Division

Fresno State 9-3 10 ½ Poinsettia vs. Duke

San Diego State 8-4 7 ½ Idaho Potato vs. Ball State

San Jose State 8-4 7 ½ New Mexico vs. Washington

Nevada 6-6 6 ½ Armed Forces vs. Navy

Hawaii 3-9 3 ½ -

UNLV 3-9 4 ½ -


Games to Watch:

1-Boise St. at Fresno St. (Friday, Sep. 20) – In its Games of the Year, Sportsbook.ag has installed BSU as a one-point road favorite. The Broncos will have one extra day of rest since they host Air Force the previous Friday, while Fresno St. plays at Colorado on Saturday. Boise St. has won seven in a row in this rivalry and won by a 57-7 count in its last trip to Fresno.

2-Fresno St. at San Jose St. (Friday, Nov. 29) – I think this game will decide the West Division. The Bulldogs have won 16 of the last 18 head-to-head meetings, but the Spartans won a 27-24 decision in the last encounter at Fresno St. in 2011.

3-Boise St. at Utah St. (Oct. 12) – Although Boise St. is on the road, this game appears to set up better for it from a scheduling perspective. The Broncos have an open date after hosting So. Miss on Sep. 28. On the flip side, the Aggies will be playing for the seventh time in as many weeks. Plus, they have three tough games in a row beforehand: at USC, at San Jose St. and vs. BYU. Sportsbook.ag has the Broncos as four-point road ‘chalk.’

4-Fresno St. at San Diego St. (Oct. 26) -- The Aztecs have two weeks to prep for this spot, while the Bulldogs take on UNLV at home the previous weekend. When these teams met in Fresno last year, the Bulldogs captured a 52-40 win as seven-point home favorites. Carr destroyed the Aztecs with 579 yards of total offense.

5-San Jose St. at Stanford (Sep. 7) – San Jose St. went to Palo Alto and dropped a 20-17 heartbreaker in the 2012 season opener. The Spartans had more total yardage (287-280) and felt like they should’ve won. Caragher’s team can shock the country and make a huge statement if it can knock off the Cardinal.

Players to Watch:

1-Derek Carr (Fresno St. QB) -- Before pulling a no-show in the bowl game in Hawaii, Fresno St.’s only losses came at Oregon (12-1), at Boise St. (11-2) and at Tulsa (11-3). The Ducks and Golden Hurricane aren’t on the schedule and BSU comes to Fresno. If Carr can play like the best QB in the nation, perhaps the Bulldogs can be a threat to get to a BCS bowl game?

2-David Fales (San Jose St. QB) -- The defenses in the MWC will be tougher and dependable RB De’Leon Eskridge is gone. Therefore, Fales is going to have to be elite for the Spartans to win the West. With Grigsby, Chandler Jones and Jabari Carr as veteran WRs, this aerial attack is going to be lethal. Fales could secure a spot in the first round of the NFL Draft with another monster season.

3-Adam Muema (San Diego St. RB) -- With QB Ryan Katz no longer in the mix, Long is going to lean on his featured back even more. If Muema can put up similar numbers to those he produced in 2012, the Aztecs will be in the thick of the West race.

4-Matt Miller (Boise St. WR) -- Miller is Joe Southwick’s favorite target. He is a sure-handed possession receiver, but Chris Petersen wants more big plays from him. Miller needs to provide those.

5-DeMarcus Lawrence (Boise St. DE) -- Lawrence is probably the best pass rusher in the MWC after registering 9.5 sacks in 2012. With QBs like Carr, Fales, Fajardo, Keeton and Keith Price (Week 1 at Washington), the Broncos need Lawrence in the backfield and disruption the vision of these accurate signal callers.

[StarDust Bum]

American Athletic Conference Preview: Keeping up with the Cardinals

The American Athletic Conference is part of the remains of the Big East Conference. The AAC will be a combination of teams from the old Big East Conference and some teams brought over from Conference USA. Louisville is expected to carry the torch for the new conference. Teddy Bridgewater is a serious Heisman Trophy contender. Who can compete with the Cardinals in 2013? This is the last year for an automatic BCS bowl game for this conference.

Louisville Cardinals (2012: 11-2 SU, 6-7 ATS)

Odds to win conference: -160
Season win total: 10.5

Why bet the Cardinals: Bridgewater is the best player in this conference by a mile. Charlie Strong has this team believing it can do something special, and they proved they are capable of a lot in their Sugar Bowl win over Florida last year. This running game should be very good with Dyer and Perry sharing time in the backfield. The defense returns 10 of 11 starters from last season.

Why not bet the Cardinals: Louisville was awful on special teams last year, and nothing has really changed to make this unit much better in 2013. This is the type of thing that can cost a team a couple of games throughout the season. The offensive front isn’t as experienced as it was last year.

Season win total pick: Over 10.5

Cincinnati Bearcats (2012: 10-3 SU, 9-3 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +350
Season win total: 9

Why bet the Bearcats: This team has proven it can win consistently. Remember, Cincinnati won at least a share of four of the last five Big East titles. Tommy Tuberville was a good hire for the program. The offensive line is the best in the conference. Linebacker Greg Blair might be the best defensive player in the AAC. There is plenty of experience on this team.

Why not bet the Bearcats: Cincinnati struggled to win close games a year ago. The offense has a little bit of a shortage of play makers after losing its top rusher and two leading receivers from last season. The secondary had lapses against the best passing attacks last season.

Season win total pick: Over 9

Rutgers Scarlet Knights (2012: 9-4 SU, 7-6 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +525
Season win total: 7

Why bet the Scarlet Knights: Rutgers has a lot more talent on the defensive end than most teams in this conference. The Merrell twins are superior athletes who should have special senior seasons. The Scarlet Knights defense allowed only 14.2 points per game last year, and they should be excellent again in 2013.

Why not bet the Scarlet Knights: Rutgers has some major question marks on the offensive end. Gary Nova threw 16 interceptions last year, and he completed less than half of his throws during the team’s three-game losing streak last season. The Scarlet Knights struggle to finish drives. Only ten starters return on the entire Rutgers roster.

Season win total pick: Under 7

Central Florida Knights (2012: 10-4 SU, 7-7 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +1000
Season win total: 7.5

Why bet the Knights: Blake Bortles and Storm Johnson are a tremendous duo in the starting backfield for the Knights. Bortles is a budding star at quarterback. He should start getting a ton of attention from pro scouts this year. Johnson is a quick runner who can break a big run at any time. The Knights also return three top receivers. This offense should be extremely good.

Why not bet the Knights: UCF is accustomed to winning with defense, but the defense returns just five starters from a year ago. Seven of their top ten tacklers from last year are gone. The offensive and defensive front might struggle a bit as UCF moves away from Conference USA and has to go up against some tougher teams in the trenches.

Season win total pick: Over 7.5

SMU Mustangs (2012: 7-6 SU, 8-5 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +2500
Season win total: 5.5

Why bet the Mustangs: SMU has gone to four straight bowl games. June Jones is great at getting the most out of his talent. Garrett Gilbert should be much better in his second year in Jones’ complex offensive system. The Mustangs have quite a bit of talent in the back seven of their defense.

Why not bet the Mustangs: SMU returns only 11 starters from last year’s team. The Mustangs lost a huge contributor in running back Zach Line, and it’s hard to imagine the team not experiencing a significant drop off at that position. The entire defensive line had to be replaced, and that was the strength of the defense last season. The schedule is extremely tough from start to finish.

Season win total pick: Under 5.5

UConn Huskies (2012: 5-7 SU, 4-6-2 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +3000
Season win total: 6

Why bet the Huskies: The Huskies lost only 12 lettermen from last year’s team, so this will be one of the most experienced teams in the AAC. Lyle McCombs is a talented running back who should have a good junior season. Yawin Smallwood was the team’s leading tackler last year, and he’ll be a candidate for Defensive Player of the Year in the AAC this season.

Why not bet the Huskies: UConn had the worst offensive line in the Big East by a mile last year, and that will be a problem again in 2013. McCombs can’t get going because this line can’t seem to hold a block. The defense lost several of their top players, so they can’t be counted on to carry the team once again.

Season win total pick: Under 6

South Florida Bulls (2012: 3-9 SU, 3-8-1 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +3000
Season win total: 5.5

Why bet the Bulls: Willie Taggart did an amazing job at Western Kentucky, and he should definitely be an upgrade for South Florida. He brings a ton of enthusiasm and positive energy to the program. Tailback Marcus Shaw should get a lot of chances to show his talent with the team’s new emphasis on running the football. The Bulls are strong in the trenches.

Why not bet the Bulls: USF has a big question mark at quarterback. Bobby Eveld hasn’t proven himself at all while at the school, and time will tell whether he can lead the team to very many victories. South Florida tied for dead last in the nation in turnover margin last season. An overall lack of talent at the skill positions on offense is concerning.

Season win total pick: Under 5.5

Houston Cougars (2012: 5-7 SU, 5-7 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +3500
Season win total: 6

Why bet the Cougars: Charles Sims is probably the most talented running back in the conference. Sims has a great combination of size and speed, and if he stays healthy he could definitely have a special season. David Piland has the tools necessary to succeed in this system, and he should be better in 2013.

Why not bet the Cougars: Houston’s defense lost its three best players from a year ago, and even with those guys on the field this unit allowed 36 points and 483 yards per game. Will they be able to stop anyone this year? Houston got into the end zone on only 52 percent of their trips into the red zone last season.

Season win total pick: Over 6

Memphis Tigers (2012: 4-8 SU, 7-5 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +6500
Season win total: 4.5

Why bet the Tigers: They finished the season on a three-game winning streak last year after starting 1-8. Coach Justin Fuente did a great job keeping the Tigers motivated last season after a bad start. Jacob Karam is an underrated senior starter at quarterback. He threw 14 touchdowns and only 3 picks last season. The defensive line is an area of strength.

Why not bet the Tigers: The move up from Conference USA to the AAC could be tough for Memphis. This is a team that hasn’t been able to have a winning season in Conference USA since 2007, so there could be some growing pains in a tougher conference. Converting on third down has been a real problem over the last few years for Memphis.

Season win total pick: Under 4.5

Temple Owls (2012: 4-7 SU, 4-7 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +8000
Season win total: 4.5

Why bet the Owls: Matt Rhule learned under Al Golden, and Golden was an extremely successful coach at Temple. Rhule should bring a lot of energy to the program. Temple returns 14 starters this year, so they’ll be an experienced team. The offensive line is one of the best in the conference.

Why not bet the Owls: Temple’s defense went from allowing less than 14 points per game in 2011 to giving up 31.2 per contest last year. The starting quarterback job is wide open, and whoever wins the job is unlikely to be a game changer. The Owls have one of the toughest schedules in the AAC this year.

Season win total pick: Under 4.5

[StarDust Bum]

Mountain West Conference Preview: Chasing Boise State

As soon as the Boise State Broncos joined the Mountain West Conference, they became the team to beat. Boise State, San Diego State, and Fresno State finished in a three-way tie at the top of the Mountain West last season. San Diego State lost a bunch of talent from last year, but Boise State and Fresno State are expected to contend for the title again in 2013. Utah State and San Jose State were added to the conference in the offseason.

Boise State Broncos (2012: 11-2 SU, 6-7 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +150
Season win total: 10

Why bet the Broncos: Even in a “down” year, Boise State went 11-2 last season and their two losses were by a total of six points. Chris Petersen has established himself as one of the best coaches in college football. Boise State’s defense has allowed less than 20 points per game in five straight seasons. Joe Southwick has a year under his belt as the starter, and he should be better in 2013.

Why not bet the Broncos: Boise State returns just nine starters from last year’s team. The Broncos don’t have as many talented skill position players on offense as they normally do, and that could hold this unit back. Boise State doesn’t have the talent at linebacker that they have had in recent years, which could make the defense a little less dominant.

Season win total pick: Under 10

Fresno State Bulldogs (2012: 9-4 SU, 11-2 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +225
Season win total: 10

Why bet the Bulldogs: The Fresno State passing game won’t take a back seat to anyone this year. Derek Carr is a star at the quarterback spot, and he has two amazing receivers in Josh Harper and Davante Adams. The Bulldogs have the best secondary in the Mountain West, and teams are going to struggle to air it out against this group. Fresno State hosts Boise State this year, and they don’t have to play Utah State at all.

Why not bet the Bulldogs: Fresno State has one glaring weakness and it is their kicking game. The Bulldogs may end up losing a close game or two due to the lack of an experienced placekicker. Fresno State lost three of their top four tacklers from last season. The Bulldogs have been inconsistent the past couple seasons.

Season win total pick: Over 10

Utah State Aggies (2012: 11-2 SU, 11-1-1 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +600
Season win total: 7.5

Why bet the Aggies: Utah State was a couple plays away from being unbeaten in 2012. The Aggies return a ton of talent in 2013. Chuckie Keeton may be the best player in the conference, and he’ll be a great leader for the offense. Zach Vigil and Jake Doughty lead an amazing group of linebackers that are going to make a living in the opposition’s backfield.

Why not bet the Aggies: The schedule makers did Utah State no favors in their first season in the Mountain West. Utah State must play on the road in four of their first five games. Keeton is great, but there isn’t much talent at the wide receiver spot. The Aggies secondary is a question mark, and there are teams in the Mountain West who can take advantage of a soft secondary.

Season win total pick: Over 7.5

San Diego State Aztecs (2012: 9-4 SU, 8-5 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +750
Season win total: 7.5

Why bet the Aztecs: San Diego State Coach Rocky Long loves to run the football, and he has the perfect bruiser for his system in running back Adam Muema. Muema ran for 1,458 yards and 16 touchdowns as a sophomore last year. A strong defensive front allows the Aztecs to play a unique 3-3-5 defense. The Aztecs have a very talented group of linebackers to lead the defense.

Why not bet the Aztecs: San Diego State turned the ball over 15 times in their four losses last season. The schedule is tough as the Aztecs must travel to take on Ohio State. They must also play both Boise State and Fresno State in conference action. Leon McFadden was a star at corner, but he is now in the NFL. The Aztecs secondary is a big question mark.

Season win total pick: Under 7.5

San Jose State Spartans (2012: 11-2 SU, 11-2 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +950
Season win total: 7.5

Why bet the Spartans: San Jose State knows how to get into the backfield. The Spartans defense sacked the opposing quarterback 42 times last year, and they finished the season with a whopping 92 tackles for a loss. Nick Fales and Noah Grigsby are great senior leaders for the offense at quarterback and wide receiver.

Why not bet the Spartans: The jump to the tougher Mountain West could be tough on a team that was accustomed to playing in the WAC. Can the team ever find a running game? Fales and the passing game are very good, but with absolutely zero balance this Spartans offense will likely find it hard to move the ball against top defenses.

Season win total pick: Under 7.5

Nevada Wolfpack (2012: 7-6 SU, 4-9 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +2500
Season win total: 5.5

Why bet the Wolfpack: Nevada has a very good nucleus of stars on the offensive side. Cody Fajardo is an ultra-talented quarterback who can do it all. Brandon Wimberly and Richy Turner are both reliable receivers who can rack up the yardage. This offense is going to score a lot of points again this year.

Why not bet the Wolfpack: Chris Ault will be a very tough head coach to replace. Few guys have changed college football the way Ault did, and he will definitely be missed. Nevada’s defense must replace seven of their top eight tacklers from last season. The secondary is definitely a weakness. This defense will give up the points in bunches.

Season win total pick: Over 5.5

Air Force Falcons: (2012: 6-7 SU, 3-10 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +4000
Season win total: 6.5

Why bet the Falcons: Air Force has one of the best secondaries in the Mountain West. Kale Pearson is a quick quarterback who should do a good job running the triple option attack. Air Force seems to never be short on weapons at the running back spot, and that is the case once again this season.

Why not bet the Falcons: Air Force is undersized in the trenches every single year, and that has become a bigger problem now that the Mountain West is a stronger conference. The Falcons defensive line just cannot stop strong rushing games from running it down their throat every single play. There’s no balance on the offensive end.

Season win total pick: Under 6.5

Hawaii Warriors (2012: 3-9 SU, 4-7 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +4000
Season win total: 3.5

Why bet the Warriors: It is Norm Chow’s second year at Hawaii, and his system should start to resonate with players better in year two. Taylor Graham will be the new guy at quarterback, and he is a talented transfer from Ohio State. Hawaii has some good pass rushers at the defensive end spot, and the secondary is solid.

Why not bet the Warriors: Hawaii was absolutely miserable against the run in 2012. The Warriors are very thin at the linebacker spot, and that will be a problem. Chow still doesn’t have the type of players that fit well into his system, so it might take longer for things to get turned around. Hawaii has a brutally difficult schedule.

Season win total pick: Under 3.5

Colorado State Rams (2012: 4-8 SU, 4-6-2 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +4500
Season win total: 5.5

Why bet the Rams: Colorado State has amazing depth at the linebacker position. Shaquil Barrett and Corey James are the stars of the unit, but Colorado State has five or six very good linebackers. Donnell Alexander is a game breaker at running back. Alexander is the son of late NFL superstar Derrick Thomas, and he has tons of athleticism in a big and strong frame.

Why not bet the Rams: As good as the linebackers are, they must play behind a very poor defensive front. Colorado State’s defensive line was consistently pushed back last year, and the same should be expected in 2013. Who will be the team’s starting quarterback? The Rams have a great rushing attack, but they’ll need some balance offensively.

Season win total pick: Over 5.5

Wyoming Cowboys (2012: 4-8 SU, 7-5 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +4500
Season win total: 5.5

Why bet the Cowboys: Wyoming has a tremendous passing game with junior Brett Smith at the helm. Smith threw for 27 touchdowns and just six interceptions last year. He has a brilliant group of wide receivers on the outside. All four starters from the secondary return from last season, and they should be the strength of the defense.

Why not bet the Cowboys: While the passing attack is awesome, the offensive line and the running game are not. Smith was hit far too often in 2012, and there is no running game to take the pressure off of Smith. Wyoming is weak in the trenches on both sides of the ball, and that is a big problem in an improved Mountain West Conference.

Season win total pick: Under 5.5

New Mexico Lobos (2012: 4-9 SU, 6-5-1 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +10000
Season win total: 4.5

Why bet the Lobos: Bob Davie did a great job making this team competitive in only one year. Davie brought a disciplined approach that made a huge difference right away. Kasey Carrier is a strong running back, and Davie loves to run the football. The New Mexico offensive line was much improved in 2012, and they should be even better this year.

Why not bet the Lobos: The passing game is non-existent, which makes it tough to move the ball against a team with a good defensive front seven. The Lobos are really lacking play makers on the defensive side of the football. The secondary was the worst in the Mountain West last year, and the front seven is terrible at pressuring the quarterback.

Season win total pick: Under 4.5

UNLV Rebels: (2012: 2-11 SU, 6-5-2 ATS)

Odds to win conference: +10000
Season win total: 4

Why bet the Rebels: This is a team that wasn’t as far away as it seemed last season. They were very close in several of their losses. Running back Tim Cornett is a great guy to build the offense around. The UNLV offensive line should be the best it has been in years. The secondary has a lot of athleticism.

Why not bet the Rebels: Can UNLV ever stop the run? The Rebels have serious trouble in the middle of their defensive line, and good opponents exploit this at every single opportunity. Nick Sherry has been inconsistent at the quarterback position. The Rebels have lost 22 straight road games, so be careful betting them on the road.

Season win total pick: Over 4

[StarDust Bum]

Big 12 Schedule Outlook

August 23, 2013


The Big XII has not had a team in the BCS championship game in any of the last three seasons and the conference is struggling to maintain its national stature with the recent and future expansions of the SEC, Big Ten, and ACC. Big XII play is certainly exciting however with a fast pace and high scoring games commonplace. Here is a look at the 10 teams in the Big XII and the schedules ahead in 2013.

Baylor Bears: Most expected a big fall from Baylor last season after the amazing 10-3 season led by Robert Griffin III. Baylor fell to 8-5 but it was a season with some big wins, beating then #2 Kansas State, as well as a ranked Oklahoma State team and then blowing out UCLA in the Holiday Bowl. Art Briles has done a remarkable job, now 33-30 in six years for a program that was not competitive in the previous decade in the conference. There is a lot of turnover again on the roster and a new quarterback in charge but Lache Seastrunk should be one of the most productive running backs in the nation and the Bears still have several excellent receivers. The schedule is difficult, particularly with a brutal 5-game finish to the season. Baylor could be bowl eligible by the end of October but they may need to be, as a winless November is a real possibility.

Conference Schedule Breakdown: Four home games, four road games, and one neutral site game in Arlington

Toughest Back-to-Back: Baylor will have to play Oklahoma State and TCU on the road in consecutive weeks in late November, add that Oklahoma and Texas Tech games precede the road trip and that the finale is at home against Texas it is a remarkably difficult closing stretch, especially for a team that is just 2-7 S/U on the road the last two years despite great success everywhere else.

Biggest Non-Conference Game: The Big XII only features three non-conference games with every team playing each other. Baylor has a very weak three-game set with the only challenge being a home game with Louisiana-Monroe in a game with a bye week on both sides. UL-Monroe gave Baylor a big scare last season as the Bears only won 47-42 in a wild game and one of the Sun Belt favorites should not be overlooked.

Iowa State Cyclones: The Cyclones have had back-to-back bowl seasons the last two years but several signs point downward this season despite Paul Rhoads proving to be a great fit to lead the program. Iowa State has one of the least experienced teams in the conference and also one of the toughest conference slates with only four home games with the home slate featuring tough games with Texas, Oklahoma State, and TCU. Iowa State also has difficult tests in two of the three non-conference games this season.

Conference Schedule Breakdown: Four home games and five road games

Toughest Back-to-Back: The Iowa State defense will have its hands full with road games in consecutive weeks against Texas Tech and Baylor in mid-October. Add that the two game road set is sandwiched around home dates with two of the conference favorites Texas and Oklahoma State it will be a very tough month of October for the Cyclones, especially on defense trying to contain some of the most prolific offenses in the nation.

Biggest Non-Conference Game: The home meeting with Iowa will set the tone for the season. Iowa State has taken control of the state with wins the last two seasons in the rivalry combined with down years for the Hawkeyes. Beating Iowa again would be a huge boost for the program and if the Cyclones are to entertain a third straight bowl trip it is certainly a must-win game.

Kansas Jayhawks: The Jayhawks went 1-11 behind Charlie Weis last season but improvement seems imminent with a favorable schedule and a second year in the offense now led by highly regarded BYU transfer Jake Heaps at QB. No schedule in this conference is easy and moving up to bowl eligibility may be a stretch this season but Kansas should have better fortune after several painful narrow losses last year. The road slate in conference play is extremely difficult but Kansas should be able to win a few home games and at least triple last season’s win count.

Conference Schedule Breakdown: Five home games and four road games

Toughest Back-to-Back: Playing at Texas and then at Oklahoma State to start the month of November should be particularly grueling for Kansas and the surrounding games will not make it any easier. In fairness Kansas actually only lost by six to Oklahoma State and by just four against Texas last year but both of those games were in Lawrence.

Biggest Non-Conference Game: While Louisiana Tech may be a higher quality opponent compared with Rice on the schedule, avenging last year’s 25-24 loss to the Owls has to be a big priority for Kansas this season. Kansas has not won a road game since 2009, going 0-15 the last three years so it is certainly not a given that Kansas will win against a Rice squad that looks improved.

Kansas State Wildcats: After a surprising rise last season, reaching #2 in the polls and finishing 11-2 it is hard to know what to expect for Kansas State this season. The defense lost virtually every key player and Heisman finalist Collin Klein also graduated. Bill Snyder should not be underestimated however and this is a program that is 21-5 the last two years. Overall Kansas State has a relatively favorable schedule as they have winnable games at home although that means some tough road games ahead. A weak non-conference schedule should allow for a strong start before two of the biggest games of the conference season open up Big XII play.

Conference Schedule Breakdown: Five home games and four road games

Toughest Back-to-Back: After opening up Big XII play at Texas in a very tough game Kansas State will have a critical stretch after a bye week with a road game at Oklahoma State and then hosting Baylor. The Bears knocked Kansas State out of the national title picture last season so that will be a huge game and Oklahoma State looks like one of the top contenders in the conference as the Wildcats will know where they stand early.

Biggest Non-Conference Game: Louisiana is not a team to overlook as Kansas State has had some non-conference struggles in recent years, barely beating Eastern Kentucky two years ago and struggling with North Texas last season. Louisiana has been one of the top Sun Belt teams the last year years and will be up for the challenge.

Oklahoma Sooners: This is a rare season where Oklahoma is not pegged as a serious national title contender but that may be to its advantage after a several good but somewhat disappointing seasons in a row. Oklahoma has several challenging games away from home and a difficult non-conference schedule with three teams that combined for 31 wins last season. Oklahoma has a lot of new players in on defense but still plenty of talent on offense but this schedule will take a toll with few breaks along the way.

Conference Schedule Breakdown: Four home games, four road games, and a neutral site game in Dallas.

Toughest Back-to-Back: The key stretch of games should be with the key non-conference game against Notre Dame on the road in a big revenge game and then a tough home game with TCU before heading to the Red River rivalry game with Texas. That stretch of games will propel Oklahoma to the top of the national title hunt or leave the Sooners with another also-ran season.

Biggest Non-Conference Game: Last season Oklahoma was a double-digit favorite at home against an undefeated Notre Dame team that had climbed to #5 in the polls. The Sooners lost 30-13 legitimizing the run for the Irish and knocking Oklahoma out of the BCS bowl discussion. Oklahoma heads to South Bend after a bye week in the last week of September for one of the biggest games of the season.

Oklahoma State Cowboys: While the starting quarterback may be unsettled at this point, Oklahoma State is poised to be one of the most dangerous offensive teams in the conference and a true contender both in the Big XII and the national picture. While Oklahoma State must play in Austin the rest of the schedule lines up favorably for a special season in Stillwater.

Conference Schedule Breakdown: Five home games and four road games

Toughest Back-to-Back: Late in the season the most critical stretch of the year could be in play depending on how things shake out early in the year. The mid-November game against Texas figures to be hugely important in the Big XII standings and the follow-up game is a tricky home game with an explosive Baylor team in a possible letdown spot. Both teams beat Oklahoma State last season in close games.

Biggest Non-Conference Game: The opener with Mississippi State in Houston will be a huge game for the Cowboys to hold up for the Big XII. Oklahoma State will be a solid favorite but even a middle-of-the-road SEC team should not be taken lightly.

TCU Horned Frogs: After a down season expectations are elevated for TCU this year and they will have the opportunity to make some noise with several big games on the schedule including a huge opening game. The conference schedule is difficult with a several tough road games against the upper echelon teams in the Big XII but Coach Patterson is 20-2 S/U on the road the past four seasons and this is a team that can make a run at the conference title after struggling on and off the field in the debut season in the conference last season.

Conference Schedule Breakdown: Four home games and five road games

Toughest Back-to-Back: TCU will have to play Oklahoma State and Texas in back-to-back weeks in late October with the first game on the road. TCU could have a few losses at that point with a few tough games early and that stretch will determine a great deal regarding the spot on the Big XII postseason ladder that the Frogs will fall into.

Biggest Non-Conference Game: The opening game with LSU in Arlington will be a huge chance for TCU to prove its worth as a new member in the Big XII. Playing in a favorable venue with serious exposure will be huge for the program if they can score the upset, playing as a much smaller underdog that most likely expected.

Texas Longhorns: After three mediocre seasons in a row expectations are sky high for a loaded Texas team with just about everyone back from last season. Texas also draws one of the most favorable schedules in the conference with most of the big games at home and nice spacing between the most difficult opponents. Texas does have two tricky non-conference games however and this is a team that has lost nine home games in the last three seasons.

Conference Schedule Breakdown: Four home games, four road games, and a neutral site game in Dallas.

Toughest Back-to-Back: Texas has struggled at home in recent years and a key stretch may come early in the season given the high expectations, facing Mississippi and Kansas State in consecutive home games. Following up a trip out west to face BYU will be taxing and the rush defense that really struggled last season will face stiff tests in consecutive weeks with a lot of pressure on the team.

Biggest Non-Conference Game: The road trip to BYU will be a challenge especially since BYU lost by just a single point against the Longhorns in Austin two years ago. The home game with Mississippi will be more important as a Big XII vs. SEC matchup and a key game for recruiting. Last season Texas won with ease 66-31 but Ole Miss has reloaded with a great deal of talent and will make it a game.

Texas Tech Red Raiders: Texas Tech brings back former QB Kliff Kingsbury to lead to the team and there will be some adjustments on both sides of the ball. Texas Tech does have a light non-conference slate ahead but the Red Raiders have several tough away games in Big XII play and it will be tough to match last season’s eight-win season given the transition season and the overall strength of the conference. The Red Raiders could get off to a great start however and a 5-1 first half seems very possible before hitting a brutal late season slate.

Conference Schedule Breakdown: Four home games, four road games, and a neutral site game in Arlington.

Toughest Back-to-Back: Playing Oklahoma and Oklahoma State in back-to-back weeks could be a great challenge late in the season and could spell the start of the decline for the team after some potential early success. Texas Tech lost by a combined score of 100-41 last season in those two matchups and the road game in Norman is a second straight road game after a long trip to West Virginia.

Biggest Non-Conference Game: For a first time head coach the opening game can be critically important and it should also be the most difficult non-conference game for the Red Raiders, facing a formidable SMU squad. SMU nearly beat Texas Tech in 2010 and the Mustangs scored over 30 points per game last season.

West Virginia Mountaineers: It was a rude welcome to the Big XII for West Virginia, going just 4-5 and really struggling defensively. At one-point West Virginia was 5-0 and ranked #5 in the nation before losing five games in a row in conference play and this year’s team won’t have Geno Smith, Stedman Bailey, or Tavon Austin. West Virginia has long travel ahead with five conference road games and it will be tough to even remain bowl eligible with this slate for a team that has almost entirely new personnel on offense.

Conference Schedule Breakdown: Four home games and five road games

Toughest Back-to-Back: Given the long travel, back-to-back road games at Kansas State and then at TCU could be exceptionally difficult, especially given that the trip follows up homecoming and then will also precede a big home game with Texas. West Virginia will likely need to win at least one of those games to reach six wins and it will be a tough scheduling situation to get it done.

Biggest Non-Conference Game: West Virginia was a 25-point favorite against Maryland last season but this year the line should be much slimmer. The game is in Baltimore which should be an experience the players look forward to but it also falls in between huge conference games with Oklahoma and Oklahoma State.

[StarDust Bum]

2013 Bowl Projections

August 27, 2013

Will Alabama's dynastic run of championships under Nick Saban continue in 2013? If it isn't Alabama, will another SEC school win an eighth straight BCS title for the conference? Does Stanford or Oregon have what it takes to win the final BCS crown? Or could it be Florida State or Clemson? What about Louisville?

These are just a few of the burning questions going into the 2013 campaign. Without a doubt, the Crimson Tide has the talent -- and the schedule -- to win a third consecutive national title. But there's another SEC squad that also has the talent, the schedule and the head coach to get to Atlanta and unseat 'Bama.

I believe that team resides in Columbia, South Carolina. The Gamecocks have the best player in America (Jadeveon Clowney), two quality quarterbacks and a coach that has had his way with Saban.

Oregon and Stanford are absolutely loaded, but I think the Ducks have a better quarterback and superior playmakers. FSU and Clemson might stay in the mix into November, but they close the regular season at Florida and at South Carolina, respectively.

As for Louisville, it’s a shame it doesn’t face a better schedule. Enough with the comparisons to previous Boise State teams because the Broncos have always had at least one tough game against a ranked foe (think about season-opening wins over Virginia Tech and Georgia). Even if the Cardinals go unbeaten, there’s no chance they get to Pasadena ahead of a one-loss SEC squad or one-loss teams like Stanford or Oregon.

I think we’ll see South Carolina and Oregon in the BCS Championship with Steve Spurrier bagging his second career national title.

Below are my 2013 Bowl Projections.

2013-14 Bowl Projections

Date Bowl Prediction

Saturday, Dec. 21 New Mexico Bowl Washington vs. San Jose State

Saturday, Dec. 21 Las Vegas Bowl Arizona State vs. Boise State

Saturday, Dec. 21 Idaho Potato Bowl San Diego State vs. Ball State

Saturday, Dec. 21 New Orleans Bowl Louisiana-Lafayette vs. Rice

Monday, Dec. 23 Beef 'O' Brady's Bowl Houston vs. Toledo

Tuesday, Dec. 24 Hawaii Bowl Bowling Green vs. Utah State

Thursday, Dec. 26 Little Caesars Bowl Ohio vs. Western Kentucky

Thursday, Dec. 26 Poinsettia Bowl Duke vs. Fresno State

Friday Dec. 27 Military Bowl Maryland vs. Marshall

Friday Dec. 27 Texas Bowl Michigan State vs. Kansas State

Friday Dec. 27 Kraft Fight Hunger Bowl Arizona vs. BYU

Saturday, Dec. 28 Pinstripe Bowl TCU vs. Central Florida

Saturday, Dec. 28 Belk Bowl North Carolina vs. Rutgers

Saturday, Dec. 28 Russell Athletic Bowl Miami, Fl. vs. Cincinnati

Saturday, Dec. 28 Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl Oklahoma vs. Michigan

Monday, Dec. 30 Armed Forces Bowl Nevada vs. Navy

Monday, Dec. 30 Music City Bowl Georgia Tech vs. Middle Tennessee

Monday, Dec. 30 Alamo Bowl Texas vs. USC

Monday, Dec. 30 Holiday Bowl Texas Tech vs. UCLA

Tuesday, Dec. 31 Independence Bowl North Carolina State vs. Louisiana Tech

Tuesday, Dec. 31 Sun Bowl Virginia Tech vs. Oregon State

Tuesday, Dec. 31 Liberty Bowl Vanderbilt vs. Tulsa

Tuesday, Dec. 31 Chick-fil-A Bowl Florida State vs. Georgia

Wednesday, Jan. 1 Heart of Dallas Bowl East Carolina vs. Arkansas State

Wednesday, Jan. 1 Gator Bowl Nebraska vs. Missouri

Wednesday, Jan. 1 Capital One Bowl Wisconsin vs. LSU

Wednesday, Jan. 1 Outback Bowl Northwestern vs. Florida

Wednesday, Jan. 1 Rose Bowl Ohio State vs. Stanford

Wednesday, Jan. 1 Fiesta Bowl Oklahoma State vs. Texas A&M

Thursday, Jan. 2 Sugar Bowl Alabama vs. Notre Dame

Friday, Jan. 3 Orange Bowl Clemson vs. Louisville

Friday, Jan. 3 Cotton Bowl Baylor vs. Ole Miss

Saturday, Jan. 4 BBVA Compass Bowl South Florida vs. Auburn

Sunday, Jan. 5 GoDaddy.Com Bowl Louisiana-Monroe vs. Northern Illinois

Monday, Jan. 6 BCS Championship South Carolina vs. Oregon