Da Bum's 2013 Preview NCAAFB News Notes Rumors !

[StarDust Bum]

2013 ACC Preview

June 9, 2013

Sure, Tobacco Road is a path most recognized and well traveled by its basketball brethren. However, the ACC has more than held it’s own on the gridiron of late.

Looking back, in its eight years as a 12-member league, the ACC has sent 64 teams to a bowl game, topped only by the SEC (69) in that span.

And after leading the nation with the most players selected in the first-round of the NFL Draft (30) from 2007-2010, 15 of the top 60 players in the 2011 draft either chewed, puffed or spit some form of tobacco. It was more of the same in 2012 when 15 of the first 100 players selected called the ACC home. And this season the six ACC players selected in the first round was second only to the SEC, increasing the ACC’s tally to 51-first-rounders plucked by the NFL since 2005.

New to the loop in 2013 are Pittsburgh and Syracuse, who join former Big East squads Boston College, Miami Florida and Virginia Tech in this burgeoning conference.

This season figures to be the ‘Year of the Quarterback’ in the ACC with no less than five QB’s owning more than 6,000 career passing yards.

While life is good in the ACC these days they will battle the nation’s toughest non-conference opponent agenda this season. And, much like the tobacco products produced in this region, this year’s non-ACC schedule of games comes with a WARNING: the 56 non-conference BCS AQ foes on tap this season owned a salty .558 win percentage last season.

Wagering on those games could be dangerous to your wealth.

Note: Numbers following team name represent the amount of returning starters on offense and defense, with an asterisk (*) designating a returning quarterback. Potential designated ‘Play On’ and ‘Play Against’ Best Bets follow each team’s preview.

Atlantic Division

BOSTON COLLEGE (*5/4)
Team Theme: CLIMBING TO NEW HEIGHTS
After an initial two-year tenure with Temple, Eagles head coach Steve Addazio has worked his way up the food chain to take over a free-falling Eagles’ program that has regressed in the win column each of the last five years. The good news for Addazio is that the cupboard is not bare with 16 starters back on both sides of the ball, including all four linebackers and QB Chase Rettig who tossed for 3,065 yards and 17 TDs last season. While Rettig will be working with his 4th OC in as many years, the good news is this year it’s Ryan Day, a former OC with the Eagles. “He is one of the bright minds and best young coaches in the country,” said former Oregon coach Chip Kelly.

Stat You Will Like: Off their worst record since 1978, four of BC’s losses last year were by single-digits, including one in overtime.

PLAY ON: vs. Wake Forest (9/6)

CLEMSON (*6/6)
Team Theme: RAISING THE BAR
Off their fourth 11-win season in school history, highlighted with a statement-making win over LSU in the Chick-Fil-A Bowl, the Tigers became the favorite to win the ACC in 2013 when star QB Tajh Boyd decided to skip the NFL draft. Along with Sammy Watkins, arguably the best wide receiver in college football, they each are legitimate Heisman Trophy candidates, leading a Chad Morris offense that has improved dramatically each of his first two years with Clemson. And speaking of heavyweight tandems, OC Morris (1.3M) and DC Brent Venables (800K) combine to haul down over $2 million dollars per year. It’s Venables’ turn to ratchet up the defense, one that has regressed each and every season under head coach Dabo Swinney. Katie bar the door should that happen.

Stat You Will Like: The Tigers are 7-0 ATS at home versus an opponent off a SUATS loss under Swinney.

PLAY ON: as a dog vs. South Carolina (11/30)

FLORIDA STATE (6/4)
Team Theme: GOING, GOING, GONE
If, as they say, the price of success is often measured after the fact, then the Seminoles paid a heavy cost after their first 12-win season this millennium in 2012. For openers a school record eleven players were selected in this year’s NFL draft - more than Miami and Florida combined -including QB EJ Manuel, 25-6 as a starter and only the 2nd quarterback in NCAA history (West Virginia’s Pat White was the first) to go 4-0 in bowl games in his career. Then to make matters worse, backup QB Clint Trickett transferred to White’s alma mater. Additionally, they need to replace nearly the entire front seven from the nations 2nd ranked defense, not to mention that six assistant coaches left for new jobs. To say this is a team in transition would be a dramatic understatement. The sign above Jimbo Fisher’s office says it all… Gone Fishin’.

Stat You Will Like: The Seminoles have registered 36 winning seasons in a row and have appeared in 31 straight bowl games, tops in the nation.

PLAY ON: vs. NC State (10/26)

MARYLAND (*7/5)
Team Theme: A TURTLE WAX SHINE
A marked 120 YPG defensive improvement was squandered last season when QB Perry Hills went down with an ACL after seven games. As a result the Terps lost their final five games of the 2012 campaign. The good news is that not only is Hills back but also QB C.J. Brown, the 2011 starter who sat out the entire 2012 season with an ACL, as well. They will have plenty of targets with WR Stefon Diggs returning after an electrifying freshmen season along with JUCO transfer WR Deon Long, a 1st-team all JUCO receiver with 100 receptions last season. Adding to the mix is RB Brandon Ross who led the team in rushing as a freshman last year. Yes, the Terrapins appear to be coming out of their shell.

Stat You Will Like: Randy Edsall played and coached at Syracuse. His wife, Eileen, is in the Syracuse Hall Of Fame as a basketball and volleyball player.

PLAY ON: vs. NC State (11/30)

NC STATE (5/5)
Team Theme: ALL JACKED UP
New head coach Dave Doeren, former boss at Northern Illinois, assumes the reins and he’s as excited as can be. “I didn’t take any short cuts to get here. I’ve been coaching 17 years at the college level and I’ve lined the field and driven the bus… I was a GA twice. I’ve coached high school. I’ve been a 1-AA non-scholarship coach. I’ve been a co-coordinator, a recruiting co-coordinator… and I’m now standing here in the ACC and I’m jacked up about it,” exclaims Doeren. Unfortunately he inherits a green team returning just 5 starters on each side of the ball, with only 3 players having made starts in each of the last 3 years. Relief comes in the form of having only 4 road games.

Stat You Will Like: Doeren is 9-1-1 ATS vs. opponents off a pointspread win of 7 or more points.

PLAY AGAINST: vs. Wake Forest (10/5)

SYRACUSE (5/6)
Team Theme: WELCOME TO THE NEIGHBORHOOD
An original Big East member, Syracuse makes its move to the ACC along with former partner Pittsburgh as the transformation of the next super-conferences is officially under way. The Orange arrives in a new neighborhood with new head coach Scott Shafer, the defensive coordinator for Syracuse over the last four seasons under former HC Doug Marrone. In addition to losing four members from last year’s coaching staff, Shafer also loses QB Ryan Nassib, who started every game the past three years, and top WR Alec Lemon, the Big East’s leader in receptions last season. Instead, Shafer will concentrate heavily on getting the football to his top two returning RB’s Jerome Smith (1,171 rushing yards) and Prince-Tyson Gulley (617 rushing yards). Yes, there’s a dramatic new look to the Cuse.

Stat You Will Like: Center Macky MacPherson, a Rimington award candidate, is the grandson of Dick MacPherson, the legendary Syracuse coach.

PLAY ON: at Northwestern (9/7)

WAKE FOREST (*8/8)
Team Theme: FALL AWAKENING
With losses in its final three games of the season last year, Wake Forest has failed to field a winning team since 2008. Look for that to change in 2013 behind a veteran team loaded with playing experience. Head coach Jim Grobe, who is just five wins shy of becoming the winningest coach in Demon Deacons’ history since “Peahead” Walker (1937-50), welcomes a squad that features an offense of players totaling 146 combined starts and a defense with 158 starts. Leading the charge is QB Tanner Price (34 starts) who completed 228 of 410 passes for 2,300 yards and 12 TD’s last season. With his favorite target and top two running backs returning, look for the slumber to come to a sudden halt this campaign.

Stat You Will Like: The Deacons have been dreadful during the final six games of the season, going 5-29 SU the last four years.

PLAY ON: vs. NC State (10/5)

Coastal Division

DUKE (9/5)
Team Theme: STILL SMARTING
David Cutcliffe, the reigning ACC Coach of the Year, has led the Devils to 21 wins in his five years at Duke. That’s 11 more than the program totaled in the previous eight years. The good news this season is the offensive line lost just one starter for the 2nd straight year, and the top six RB’s return. The bad news is QB Sean Renfree and WR Conner Vernon are both departed. Vernon is the ACC all-time leader in pass receptions and receiving yards. The tandem hooked up for 20 TD’s, the primary reason the Devils tallied a school record 410 points last season. Anxious to hit the field after making its first bowl appearance last year since 1994, our best guess is Duke will have a devil of a time mirroring last year’s success.

Stat You Will Like: 21 players made the ACC all-academics team last season, the most in the conference. Second most was Clemson with 6.

PLAY AGAINST: vs. NC State (11/9)

GEORGIA TECH (7/8)
Team Theme: WHAT A RUSH
For the 2nd year in a row Paul Johnson will field an offensive line led by 4 returning starters – this group helped set a school rushing record of 6,175 yards on the ground last season. Opponents know what they are up against as this overland juggernaut has rushed for more yards than any FBS team since 2008. All 7 losses last year for the Wreck came against bowl eligible opponents. Adding to the task of making it to a bowl game for the 17th straight season (only three teams have longer streaks) is the fact that 10 opponents on this year’s schedule won 6 or more games last season. New defensive coordinator Ted Roof, an ex-alum and former head coach at Duke, was DC with Penn State last year and also with 2008 national champion Auburn. The Yellow Jackets have the second best record in Coastal Division since 2005 (42-22).

Stat You Will Like: The Yellow Jackets have finished .500 or better 18 straight years in the ACC, the longest stretch in the nation.

PLAY ON: vs. Georgia (11/30)

MIAMI FLORIDA (*10/10)
Team Theme: GOLDEN THEM THAR HILLS
The Canes made forward strides in season two under Al Golden, mainly behind an offense that improved 62 net YPG, and a turnover margin that went from -4 to +7. And with only four winning foes on this year’s schedule, the 20 returning starters that dominate this year’s roster are anxious to put a self-imposed two-year bowl ban behind them and regain a bit of gleam from the glory days of years past. QB Stephen Morris, fresh off breaking Bernie Kosar’s school record for total offense last year, leads the charge. Super-soph RB Duke Johnson broke Clinton Portis’ 13-year school freshman rushing record with 947 yards and 10 TD’s as well. With 21 freshmen having seen action last year, the rush is on.

Stat You Will Like: Miami’s last conference championship was in 2003 in the Big East.

PLAY ON: as a dog vs. Florida (9/7)

NORTH CAROLINA (*6/7)
Team Theme: WELL HEELED
When Larry Fedora accepted the UNC job last season he did so knowing the Tar Heels were on probation from the Butch Davis years and not eligible to go bowling. Nonetheless, he led Big Blue to its first winning record in ACC play since 2004 while also managing to beat Virginia Tech at home for the first time since 1938. Best of all last year’s 8-win effort was accomplished while playing 28 freshmen, tying LSU and TCU for most combined first-year players to see action. Quarterback Bryn Renner, ranked 2nd in pass efficiency (160.3) last season among active players, returns after throwing for 3,356 yards on 67% completions. The healing process is under way.

Stat You Will Like: Fedora is 7-0 ATS in his career versus a .714 or less opponent off back-to-back wins.

PLAY AGAINST: as a favorite vs. NC State (11/2)

PITTSBURGH (6/9)
Team Theme: HOLY CHRYST
After being hired as its fourth coach in 13 years last season, it appeared Paul Chryst was the next head on the chopping block after a 0-2 start, punctuated by a season-opening home loss to (yikes) Youngstown State. However, the football gods answered his prayers when the Panthers went on to win 6 of their next 10 games and land a bowl berth again Ole Miss. Gone is 4-year starting QB Tino Sunseri, likely to be replaced by former Rutgers signal caller Tom Savage, a senior who was a scholarship player at Arizona in 2011 but did not play. Also graduated is star RB Ray Graham who rushed for 3,271 yards in four seasons, second at Pitt only to Tony Dorsett. In his first season in the ACC, Chryst will once again be a regular at the local house of worship.

Stat You Will Like: The Panthers are 0-6-1 SU and 0-7 ATS away versus ACC opponents, and 0-6 ATS as a single-digit dog versus the ACC.

PLAY ON: at Syracuse (11/23)

VIRGINIA (7/7)
Team Theme: LONDON CALLING
The Cavaliers saw their win total slashed in half last season despite posting comparable stats from an 8-win effort in 2011. With 14 starters back, this year’s squad could fly under the radar and improve on all fronts. The loss, however, of former 5-star high school recruit QB Phillip Sims to academic suspension hurts. Sims, a transfer from Alabama’s 2011 national championship team, played in all 12 games last season, starting four times. The Cavs will be put to the test against 8 bowl teams and 2 others who were bowl eligible. Mike London’s three basic tenets delivered to his players (Go to class; Show class; Treat people with respect and dignity) are paying dividends. In his 4th year at the helm, and with 8 home games, it’s now time for this team to fulfill their coach’s lofty expectations.

Stat You Will Like: 6 of Virginia’s 16 wins under London have been by 3 or less points.

PLAY ON: vs. Maryland (10/12)

VIRGINIA TECH (*6/9)
Team Theme: BACK ON THE BEAM
The Hokies were the nation’s only team with 10 or more wins the previous eight seasons, and 8 or more wins the last 14 years – until 2012. That’s when the whole thing nearly went to hell in a handbag. Were it not for a pair of 3-point wins in the last game of the season and in the Russell Athletic Bowl, the Hokies would have endured their first losing season since 1992. With the attack falling off dramatically, Frank Beamer brings in three new offensive assistants, including an OC and QB coach. They will be hands on in hopes of better grooming 6’6”, 255-lb senior QB Logan Thomas for the NFL, who endured an inconsistent campaign last year after a breakout season in 2011. Like General MacArthur, they shall return.

Stat You Will Like: The Hokies are 13-1 SU in the state of North Carolina during the regular season since joining the ACC in 2004 (only loss last year at UNC).

PLAY AGAINST: as a dog vs. Miami Florida (11/8)

[StarDust Bum]

2013 Big Ten Preview

June 16, 2013

At first glance it appears the muscle on display by the Big Ten Conference went steroid-free and softened up in 2012. A closer look tells a different story.

The conference flexed its power in 2011 when three Big Ten teams finished the season with 11 wins for the second-straight season. In addition, an NCAA record 10 teams went bowling in 2011. Along the way the league picked up its 3rd BCS bowl win in as many years.

That all changed in 2012 when the BCS bowl string was snapped and only seven teams from the conference hit the alleys. In addition only one team, Ohio State, managed to win more than 10 games.

It should be noted, however, that two teams were bowl ineligible (Penn State and the Buckeyes) while the league also suffered an onslaught of close-call losses last season.

That’s confirmed by the fact the Big Ten was 85-68 overall in 2012, with nearly 30 percent of the losses (20) by a field goal or less. Leading the charge were three teams – Iowa, Michigan State and Wisconsin – with four defeats by three or less points.

The good news is 30 all-conference players are back in 2013, the most since 2005.

The coaching turnstile continues with two new coaches this season, making nine of the current 12 coaches at the helm two years or less.

That number will grow by at least two next season when Maryland and Rutgers move into the conference.

In this crazy world of conference expansion, it’s been said that Big 10 commissioner Jim Delaney is secretly a plant in quest of more soil.

We couldn’t agree more.

Note: Numbers following team name represent the amount of returning starters on offense and defense, with an asterisk (*) designating a returning quarterback. Potential designated ‘Play On’ and ‘Play Against’ Best Bets follow each team’s preview.

Leaders Division

ILLINOIS (*9/4)
Team Theme: BABY POWDER

A promising 2-1 start for new head coach Tim Beckman went down the drain faster than toot in a frat bust when the Illini went 0-9 to conclude a disappointing season last year. Beckman, who has coached under the likes of Urban Meyer, Jim Tressel, Mike Gundy and Pat Dye, immediately brought in five new assistant coaches, including Bill Cubit as his new OC and QB coach. The former Western Michigan head coach will look to fix the Illini offensive woes, a monumental task on paper considering Illinois finished second-to-last in the FBS in total offense and scoring last year. They will employ a high tempo no-huddle spread offense engineered by Nathan Scheelhaase or Reilly O’Toole. Look for the 18 freshmen that debuted last season to find plenty of playing time in 2013.

Stat You Will Like: QB Nathan Scheelhaase, a 3-year starter with 36 starts, ranks 5th all-rime in total offense (7,091 yards) at Illinois.

PLAY ON: vs. Indiana (11/9)

INDIANA (*10/9)
Team Theme: BLOOMING GARDEN

Kevin Wilson’s 3rd year at the helm in Bloomington was a relative success when his young Hoosiers showed dramatic improvement. Fielding the youngest team in the country (24 of 35 starters were underclassmen), Wilson parlayed playing time granted to 16 true freshmen and 16 redshirt freshmen in 2011 into 16 more newbie’s getting game time last year. As a result the new kids on the block led the Big Ten in passing offense in 2012 while setting school records in passing yards and total offense. They were so excited they ran one play every 20.3 seconds, with 23 TDs coming in under 90 seconds. Behind a bevy of returning starters, including 10 on offense, look for Wilson to take these pimply-faces places they’ve never been before.

Stat You Will Like: Despite trailing in time of possession by nearly 7 minutes per game last season, the Hoosiers led the opposition in plays per game (78.3-75.8).

PLAY ON: vs. Wisconsin (11/16)

OHIO STATE (*9/4)
Team Theme: FOUR ON THE FLOOR

With two national championships and two undefeated seasons now under his belt, Buckeyes head coach Urban Meyer will look to improve on an auspicious debut in Columbus last year – if that’s possible. With 47 of 82 scholarship players either freshmen or sophomores, and not having the benefit of extra practice time afforded to bowl teams before bowling last season, we’re selling rather than buying. Sure, the offense is loaded with nine starters including star QB Braxton Miller and four senior starters on the o-line, but the defense is shaky at best. Not only did it decline 37 YPG last season, the front seven returns only ONE starter, with the entire front four gone. Yes, Meyer has been a winner at every level, but you may be floored at this year’s slippage.

Stat You Will Like: The Buckeyes list only four seniors on defense this season.

PLAY AGAINST: vs. Wisconsin (9/28)

PENN STATE (8/6)
Team Theme: SUPER GLUE

Through the eyes of many, Bill O’Brien was arguably College Football’s Coach of the Year last season. No, the Lions did not go bowling – they were not allowed - their win total actually slipped from the previous year, and the defense allowed 31 more YPG. What O’Brien did was bond a once proud program back together in spectacular fashion following the Joe Paterno scandal. The task becomes more difficult this season given the fact that emotional inspiration does not figure to reach last year’s levels. JUCO transfer QB Tyler Ferguson figures to be under center until mega-recruit Christian Hackenberg is ready. Meanwhile, WR Allen Robinson, the Big Ten’s active receiving yards leader (1,013) from last season, becomes the team’s go-to player.

Stat You Will Like: Three of the Lions’ four non-conference games are against foes that were in bowl games last season.

PLAY ON: as a dog vs. Nebraska (11/23)

PURDUE (5/9)
Team Theme: HAMMER AND RAILS

There are distinct differences, but in more ways than one, this squad is similar to Boilermaker teams from the past. However, Darrell Hazell - former Ohio State assistant and Kent State head coach - is the new sheriff in town and he’s looking to make changes this season. Quarterbacks Robert Marve and Caleb TerBush have moved on from the ‘Cradle of QBs’, as did leading wide receiver Antavian Edison and leading rusher Akeem Shavers. Considering Hazell’s Flashes dialed up 584 run plays compared to 358 designed passes last season, TB Akeem Hunt is likely to step into the spotlight this season. With fans railing for improvements both at Ross-Ade Stadium and on the field, look for Hazell’s tenure to start from the ground up with the Boilers this season.

Stat You Will Like: One of a handful of FBS schools without permanent lighting at Ross-Ade Stadium, the Boilermakers will have no primetime games on the Big Ten Network this season.

PLAY ON: as a dog vs. Ohio State (11/2)

WISCONSIN (*8/7)
Team Theme: PASA-THREE-NA
Big 10 champions three years running – albeit largely by default last season - the Badgers became only the third team in history to drop three consecutive Rose Bowls in as many years last season when they fell to Stanford, 20-14. An expected letdown was clearly in order when after a 39-point trouncing of Nebraska in the Big Ten title game, it was announced head coach Brett Bielema was departing for Arkansas. Through it all Gary Andersen arrives from Utah State where he managed to turn 13 straight losing seasons into a school-best 11-win campaign for the Aggies last year. With the Big Ten brawnier than ever, and Urban Meyer’s Ohio State squad both conference and bowl-eligible in 2013, FTD will not likely be delivering a fourth bouquet of roses to Bucky this season.

Stat You Will Like: Andersen's Utah State squad was No. 1 in red-zone scoring defense last season. Wisconsin was No. 120 (dead-last) in red-zone scoring defense last season.

PASS

Legends Division

IOWA (6/8)
Team Theme: BEAM ME UP

The result of facing too much stiff competition brought sober results to a Hawkeyes program that couldn’t find its way to the winner’s circle in close call games last season. When the smoke settled, half of their eight losses in 2012 were by a field goal or less, leading to a disastrous 0-6 finish. A closer look reveals nine of Iowa’s twelve opponents played in a bowl game, with another (Penn State) winning 8 games. Offensively, Kirk Ferentz replaces QB James Vandenberg with Jake Ruddock (led his Florida high school squad to 29-1 record and state title) and welcomes back last year’s top two running backs as well as four of the top five wide receivers. With the top three tacklers back on defense, expect Captain Kirk to right the ship… pronto.

Stat You Will Like: The Hawkeyes were the only team in the nation to have six regular season games decided by 3 or less points last season.

PLAY ON: vs. Iowa State (9/14)

MICHIGAN (*5/6)
Team Theme: TIGHTEN UP
Lost in the mix of another 5-loss season last year (3rd time in last four years) was the fact that the defeats came at the hands of teams that combined to go 58-8 on the season. In fact, four of the Wolverines’ five losses occurred away from the “Big House” against the AP’s top 10 teams: No. 1 Alabama, No. 3 Ohio State, No. 4 Notre Dame and No. 8 South Carolina. Whew, talk about tight. Meanwhile, QB Devin Gardner stepped in for an injured Denard Robinson and ignited the offense by tallying at least two touchdowns in every game (5) he played at quarterback. By the time the dust settled Gardner finished with 18 TDs, including 11 by air and 7 by land. Revenge looms large in Ann Arbor.

Stat You Will Like: Brady Hoke became the first Michigan head coach to go undefeated at home in his first two seasons at UM since Fielding Yost in 1901-02.

PLAY ON: as a dog vs. Ohio State (11/30)

MICHIGAN STATE (*9/7)
Team Theme: LOCKED AND LOADED

Selected by most pundits as the team to beat in the Big Ten last season, the Spartans fell woefully short of expectations in 2012. The defense held up their end of the bargain. It was the offense that suffered major attrition, slipping 11 points and 31 yards per game. The upside was a stirring 13-point comeback in a 17-16 win over TCU in the Buffalo Wild Wings Bowl, giving them back-to-back bowl wins for the first time since 1990. With a stellar defense that ranked in the nation’s top 5 overall the last two years, many of those same experts will be right back on the Spartans in 2013. After all, eleven players on offense and twelve on defense own starting experience, including six OL with at least ten starts apiece.

Stat You Will Like: Michigan State has won more Big Ten games (27) than any other team in conference play the last four years.

PLAY ON: vs. Northwestern (11/23)

MINNESOTA (*10/7)
Team Theme: KILLING ME SOFTLY
In between seizures, Jerry Kill’s game plan is beginning to play out. After joining the Gophers two years ago, Kill’s clan is showing signs of the Glen Mason era in Minneapolis when anything less than a bowl bid was unacceptable. His troops found their way to the Meineke Car Care Bowl last year, losing in a shootout to Texas Tech. They return 17 starters from a team that improved its numbers on both sides of the ball from the previous year. With star athlete Marquies Gray having gone from QB to WR to the NFL (free agent with the 49ers), the ball is now in the hands of Phillip Nelson. He’ll need to improve on a sub 50% completion rate last year for the plan to progress.

Stat You Will Like: In his 3rd year at Northern Illinois, Kill went 11-3 SU and 10-2-1 ATS.

PLAY ON: vs. Northwestern (10/19)

NEBRASKA (*7/5)
Team Theme: LEGENDS IN THEIR OWN MINDS

Why is it a team that has had five straight nine-win seasons in as many years under its head coach, while also capturing the Legends division the Big 10 last season, can’t seem to command the respect of its peers? Maybe it’s the four losses they incurred each of the last five years. Or perhaps it’s the fact that they led the nation in scoring defense in 2009 (10.4 PPG), but have grown progressively worse (28 PPG last season) each year since. The bottom line is this program is certainly a ghost of the one that dominated college football in the 80s and 90s. QB Taylor Martinez leads an offense that improved 6 points and 81 yards per game last season. But their legendary status will remain a memory until the defense comes around.

Stat You Will Like: All 10 college football programs Bo Pelini has been a part of have won nine or more games each season.

PLAY ON: vs. UCLA (9/14)

NORTHWESTERN (*8/7)
Team Theme: PURPLE REIGN

Last year on these pages Wildcats head coach Pat Fitzgerald was quoted as saying, “We’re not that far away… it’s all about chemistry. Are we eating and drinking and sleeping and just consumed with being a champion? We’re darn close, and that’s the goal.” His words proved prophetic as Northwestern proceeded to win 10 games for only the second-time in school history. As a result Fitzgerald enjoyed his best-ever recruiting class this year, paving the way for continuity to be in place for years to come. Adding to the good news is the return of 15 starters from last year’s record-setting class, including QB Kain Colter on offense and Tyler Scott on defense, the nation’s active sack leader last season. The saga continues.

Stat You Will Like: The last time Northwestern won back-to-back bowl games was 1949.

PLAY ON: vs. Michigan (11/16)

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF Games of the Year: Line could shrink for ASU-Stanford

Odds are out for the biggest games of the college football season. Covers Expert Jesse Schule gives you his insight into some of the marquee matchups and predicts where the odds could move before kickoff.

Saturday September 21 - Arizona State Sun Devils at Stanford Cardinal (-10)

Past History: Arizona State is 3-2 SU, 3-1-1 ATS since 2006.

Early look at Arizona State: The Sun Devils appear to be a team on the rise in the Pac-12 and expectations are high in Todd Graham's second season as coach. Quarterback Taylor Kelly has all the skills, but it's not certain if he will have enough talent around him at the wide receiver position.

Early look at Stanford: The Cardinal have eight starters returning on a defense that was one of the toughest in the country last year and we can expect them to be solid on the defensive side of the ball again in 2013. Kevin Hogan will take over the reigns from Josh Nunes, who started under center at the beginning of last year. It was Hogan, though, that led them to a victory over Wisconsin in the Rose Bowl.

Where this line will move: The Sun Devils play Wisconsin in Arizona in Week 2 and if they can defeat the Badgers, money should come in on Arizona State dropping the line down to single digits.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF Games of the Year: Tough start for Texas could sway Red River odds

Odds are out for the biggest games of the college football season. Covers Expert Jesse Schule gives you his insight into some of the marquee matchups and predicts where the odds could move before kickoff.

Saturday October 12 - Oklahoma Sooners vs. Texas Longhorns (Pick)

Past History: Oklahoma is 3-2 SU, 3-1-1 ATS since 2008.

Early look at Oklahoma: Blake Bell takes over an offense that returns seven starters including tailback Damien Williams and wideout Jalen Saunders. Things aren't quite as settled on the defensive side of the ball with an entirely new front seven.

Early look at Texas: The Longhorns will have the most experienced offensive line in the country in 2013, but a lack of experience on the defensive side of the ball could be their downfall this season. They allowed a total of 10 rushing touchdowns in their final three games last year, so they have a long way to go.

Where this line will move: There is potential for a disastrous start to the season for Texas, with a tough schedule and a lot of questions surrounding the defense. Oklahoma seems to have a favorable schedule heading into this game and they might be a favorite by game day.

[StarDust Bum]

2013 Outlook - AAC

June 20, 2013


Skinny: 5Dimes has Louisville installed as the -140 favorite to repeat as conference champs in this newly-formed league that has six of the same schools from the old Big East. The Cardinals closed last season with a blowout win over Florida at the Sugar Bowl. The game wasn’t as close as the 33-23 final score indicated.

The victory over the Gators was preceded by head coach Charlie Strong turning down several overtures from other schools, including a lucrative offer from Tennessee. Really, things can’t get a whole lot better for U of L unless…well, it can win a national title in football this season. Rick Pitino just brought the Cardinals their first basketball national title since 1986 and the baseball team made it to the World Series in Omaha.

How realistic is it for U of L to be in the national-title mix late in November? According to 5Dimes, the Cardinals have the eighth-shortest odds to win the BCS Championship (26/1). They have one of the best quarterbacks in America in true junior Teddy Bridgewater, who completed 68.5 percent of his passes for 3,718 yards with a 27/8 touchdown-to-interception ratio in 2012.

Louisville returns 10 starters on defense and six on offense. Most important, the schedule is a complete joke. In fact, The Golden Nugget in Las Vegas has U of L as a double-digit favorite in every one of its lined games with just once exception, as it is a 3.5-point road ‘chalk’ in its regular-season finale at Cincinnati.

Louisville gets the rest of its toughest American Athletic Conference games at home, including Rutgers and UCF in back-to-back weeks. An Oct. 26 trip to Tampa to meet South Florida could be a dangerous spot.

If Strong’s bunch can stay undefeated, it will need help to get to Pasadena. In other words, U of L’s schedule isn’t strong enough to get a No. 2 BCS ranking ahead of a one-loss SEC team or a one-loss Oregon and/or Ohio State.

But if the Big Ten, Big 12 and Pac-12 have league champs with two defeats, there will be a very real opportunity for Bridgewater to get his team to Pasadena to face an SEC squad.

Rutgers and Cincinnati share the second-shortest odds to win the first AAC title (+490, risk $100 to win $490). RU is entering its second season under Kyle Flood, who led the Scarlet Knights to a 9-1 start in his first year after replacing Greg Schiano, who should have a statue of his bust erected for the masterful job he did in Piscataway before taking the Buccaneers job.

RU lost its last three games, including a 20-17 defeat vs. Louisville and a 13-10 overtime decision to Va. Tech at the Russell Athletic Bowl. But the Scarlet Knights return 80 percent of their offensive line, QB Gary Nova and All-American candidate Brandon Coleman at wide receiver.

Leading rusher Jawan Jamison bolted for the NFL after eclipsing the 1,000-yard rushing mark as a sophomore. However, junior Savon Huggins demonstrated his ability by rushing for 179 yards in a 10-3 win at Cincinnati when Jamison was injured.

Rutgers had a stout defense last year, finishing fourth in the nation in scoring defense by allowing only 14.2 points per game. But this unit has only four starters back.

Cincinnati made the most stunning off-season hire when it was able to get Tommy Tuberville to leave Texas Tech after Butch Jones took the Tennessee job. The Bearcats hired a veteran head coach that’s a winner in The Riverboat Gambler.

Cincy went 10-3 last season, finishing the year with a miraculous cover thanks to a defensive touchdown on the game’s final play for a 48-34 win over Duke. The Bearcats’ three losses came by 16 combined points at Toledo, at Louisville and vs. Rutgers.

Cincy has seven starters back on offense and six on defense. The entire offensive line is back along with WR Anthony McClung, who had 34 catches for 539 yards last season.

Senior QB Brendon Kay replaced Munchie Legaux late last season and played extremely well down the stretch. Kay connected on 63.0 percent of his throws with a 10/2 TD-INT ratio. He also rushed for 6.4 yards per carry and a pair of scores.

Cincy faces a pair of Big Ten schools in non-conference play, hosting Purdue in the season opener before playing at Illinois in Week 2. The Bearcats play at Rutgers on Nov. 16.

Central Florida, Houston, Memphis and SMU have joined the league from out of Conference USA. UCF is the most highly regarded program by oddsmakers, evidenced by its 10/1 odds to win the AAC.

The Knights won 10 games last year but will be facing tougher competition in the AAC. Junior QB Blake Bortles connected on 69.2 percent of his passes for 3,059 yards with a 25/9 TD-INT ratio. Bortles finished the year by throwing 174 straight passes without an interception.

George O’Leary’s squad has six starters back on offense and four on defense. There are two non-conference games in which UCF will be in underdog situations, at Penn St. and vs. South Carolina.

South Florida is starting anew following a disappointing three-year run under Skip Holtz, whose exit was triggered by 14 losses in his last 16 Big East games. The Bulls were one of the nation’s biggest flops with their abysmal 3-9 record in 2012.

Optimism is high in Tampa, however, thanks to the arrival of new head coach Willie Taggart, who did a stellar job in three years at Western Kentucky (18-7 against the spread in his last two seasons). Taggart, whose mantra for the program is “Do Something,” inherits a club returning six starters on offense and seven on defense.

Paul Pasqualoni is on the hot seat after posting 5-7 records in both of his first two seasons at Connecticut. The Huskies had an outstanding defense in 2012, finishing seventh in the nation in rushing defense, ninth in total defense and 19th in scoring defense (19.8 points per game).

But when your starting QB (Chandler Whitmer) has a 9/16 TD-INT ratio and your offense averages only 17.8 PPG, a quality defense can only do so much. Whitmer will have to battle redshirt freshman Casey Cochran for the starting job.

UConn returns eight starters on offense and five on defense.

Houston didn’t fare well in its first season without former HC Kevin Sumlin and the school’s all-time leading passer Case Keenum. The Cougars limped to a 5-7 record in its last year in C-USA, giving up a whopping 36.0 PPG.

Tony Levine’s second team should have a prolific offense, returning 10 starters from a unit that averaged 32.4 PPG. The defense returns just five starters, but that might be a good thing. Look for a bunch of high totals in Houston games.

SMU brings momentum into the 2013 campaign after trouncing Fresno St. by a 43-10 count as a 13-point underdog at last year’s Hawaii Bowl. The Mustangs bring back six starters on offense and five on defense.

QB Garrett Gilbert struggled early in the season, but June Jones has to be pleased with the fact that Garrett didn’t throw any interceptions in the last five games.

Temple lost its head coach Steve Addazio to Boston College after struggling to a 4-7 record last season. The Owls have eight returning starters on offense and six on defense. They open the year in South Bend against Notre Dame.

The good news for Memphis is that it won three consecutive games to close Justin Fuente’s inaugural campaign as HC. The bad news is those victories came against Tulane, UAB and a winless So. Miss squad.

The Tigers, who have eight starters back on both sides of the ball, are going to struggle to compete in the AAC.

Games to Watch

1-Rutgers at Louisville (Oct. 10) – This is a Thursday night game with both teams playing on a short week of preparation. But Rutgers, which plays in Dallas against SMU five days before, will be at a disadvantage due to the travel. U of L is also on the road on Oct. 5 at Temple, but it only has to travel from Philadelphia back to Louisville. RU will go from Dallas to Piscataway and then down to the ‘Ville. The Golden Nugget opened the Cardinals as 10-point favorites.

2-Louisville at Cincinnati (Dec. 5) – This is another Thursday game but both schools have open dates beforehand. The Bearcats will be looking to avenge a 34-31 OT loss from 2012. Strong and Tuberville have faced each other many times dating back to their days in the SEC.

3-Rutgers at UCF (Nov. 21) – RU will be coming off a 60-minute war at home vs. Cincy, while UCF will probably have an easier time in its prior game at Temple. In yet another Thursday game, the Scarlet Knights will have to travel down to the Sunshine State on a short week off of a tough game.

4-UCF vs. South Carolina (Sept. 28) – Both teams have open dates prior to meeting in Orlando and also have easy games on deck (at Memphis and vs. Kentucky). Those factors are a wash, but we mention this tilt because the Knights will have a chance to make a national splash if they pull the upset.

5-Louisville at South Florida (Oct. 26) – The Golden Nugget opened U of L as a 13-point road ‘chalk.’ The Bulls have an open date to prepare for the Cardinals, who play at UCF eight days before.

6-SMU at Texas A&M (Sept. 21) – No, we aren’t thinking upset here – not even close! However, the situation is worth noting because the Aggies host Alabama the previous week and therefore fall into a vintage letdown spot. Also, SMU has an open date to give June Jones two weeks to prepare for A&M’s defense. If the Mustangs are catching 35-plus points, they might be worth a look if their offense shows life in the first two games.

Fearless Predictions
(No Championship Game)
2013 Win-Loss Projections
School Record Bowl Projection
Louisville 11-1 Orange Bowl vs. ACC champ
Cincinnati 9-3 Russell Athletic Bowl vs. ACC #3
Rutgers 8-4 Belk Bowl vs. ACC #5
Central Florida 7-5 Pinstripe vs. Big 12 #7
South Florida 7-5 BBVA Compass vs. SEC #8 or 9
Houston 7-5 Beef ‘O’ Brady’s vs. At Large or C-USA #2-5
SMU 5-7 -
Connecticut 5-7 -
Temple 5-7 -
Memphis 3-9 -

Week 1 Best Bet(s)

-- Play Notre Dame -24 vs. Temple: Even though the Irish lost starting QB Everett Golson, this team has eight starters returning from a defense that ranked second nationally in scoring defense (12.8 PPG). With an unsettled QB situation, I don’t see the Owls generating much offense. I like the Irish to win a 38-6 type of game. I found this line at 5Dimes on June 20.

-- Play Texas Tech -2.5 at SMU: Michael Brewer takes over for Seth Doege at QB and I expect it to be a seamless transition to the true sophomore, who completed 34-of-48 passes for four TDs without an interception in limited playing time as a true freshman. Brewer was a highly-touted recruit coming out of high school. I have the Red Raiders as 6.5-point favorites in this spot.

Players to Watch

1-Teddy Bridgewater (QB, Louisville) – According to the numbers at Sportsbook.ag, Bridgewater is the No. 10 candidate to win the Heisman Trophy with 15/1 odds (risk $100 to win $1,500). Some NFL scouts think even more of him and he’s certainly in the conversation to be the No. 1 pick in next spring’s draft. With the Cardinals’ soft schedule, Bridgewater will have a chance to put up monster numbers. I typically don’t bet on Heisman props but I’m not against taking a flyer on Bridgewater for the generous 15/1 return. Assuming he stays healthy, U of L should be in the Top 10 for the entire season. I’ll be surprised if he’s not a finalist in New York City in mid-December.

2-Brandon Coleman (WR, Rutgers) – Coleman, a 6’6” junior, is a big target who can go up in the air and make plays in traffic. His numbers from last year’s sophomore season don’t jump off the page (43 catches, 718 yards and 10 TDs), but Rutgers had a ground-and-pound offensive approach with an emphasis on running the ball and playing stout defense. If Nova improves at QB, Coleman should have big numbers and could be in the mix for the Fred Biletnikoff Award given to the nation’s top wideout.

3-Yawin Smallwood (LB, UConn) – Smallwood is a leading candidate for the Butkus Award as a junior. In his sophomore year, Smallwood produced a team-high 120 tackles with 11 tackles for loss and four sacks to earn first-team All Big East honors. He was the main reason why UConn allowed only 19.8 PPG. In 2011, he was a second-team Freshman All-American after making 94 tackles. This will be his last year in Storrs before playing on Sundays.

4-Charles Sims (RB, Houston) – The senior RB is a two-time All C-USA selection who keeps Houston’s high-octane offense balanced. With 2,370 career rushing yards, Sims needs just 878 yards this season to become Houston’s second all-time leading rusher. If he can gain 1,267 yards on the ground, he’ll go down as the school’s all-time best back.

5-Blake Bortles (QB, UCF) – Bortles has 4,017 passing yards with a 31/10 TD-INT ratio in his first two seasons at UCF. Although I have the Knights going 7-5, it could easily turn in their favor to 9-3 if Bortles continues to improve. If UCF becomes the league’s surprise team, it will be because Bortles makes it happen.

[StarDust Bum]

2013 Big 12 Preview

June 22, 2013

These days it's all about the money, honey.

And with it, at its 2013 spring meeting, the Big 12 Conference announced that is will distribute a record amount of revenue - $198 million - to each of its ten members. In what amounts to a $22 million payday for eight Big 12 member institutions, and $11 million dollars apiece for newcomers TCU and West Virginia, it was learned the bulk of the revenues was generated by its television contracts along with member participation in bowl games and the NCAA men's basketball championship.

FYI: the SEC, which has four more members, was able to distribute $289.4 million.

The one glaring similarity: each conference's television agreements are largely responsible for the uptick in revenue, with 49.5% of the Big 12 monies and 59.8% of the SEC's primarily the driving forces. Think about that the next time you pay your monthly cable bill.

So the next time you hear the Big 12 talking about the need to add two more teams in order to bring the 10-team league back to 12, you will better understand the real reason behind the double-speak.

And speaking of money, a look back shows the Big 12 has participated in at least eight bowl games (nine last campaign) four straight seasons, and ten times the last 17 years. In addition, the Big 12 completed the 2012 season owning the nation's best two-year non-conference regular season-win percentage at .883 (53-7).

The league has also tallied its best non-conference records in the month of September, going 52-5 SU and 28-14 ATS, including 13-1 ATS when not favored by more than seven points, the last two seasons.

Through it all, Oklahoma head coach Bob Stoops insists the Big 12 is better balanced - from top to bottom - than the SEC. Bowl records over the last decade say different with the SEC standing 53-30, while the Big 12 counters at 40-39.

Maybe he was referring to offensive production, where six Big 12 squads landed in the nation's Top 20 in total offense last season, doubling-up the amount of SEC teams. Then again, the SEC found six schools in the Top 20 in scoring defense last season as opposed to ZERO teams from the Big 12.

And therein tells the tale of that story…and the checkbook disparity of the two conferences.

Note: Numbers following team name represent the amount of returning starters on offense and defense, with an asterisk (*) designating a returning quarterback. Potential designated 'Play On' and 'Play Against' Best Bets follow each team's preview.

BAYLOR (6/7)
Team Theme: FINDING THEIR SEA LEGS

If there was a hotter team at the conclusion of the 2012 season than the Bears, let them step forward. Art Briles' squad finished with the No. 2 offense in the nation, one year after RG3 ran off with the Heisman and headed to the nation's capitol. And speaking of the coveted trophy, this just in… "I'm going to win the Heisman. I'm going to win it in 2013," RB Lache Seastrunk said. "If I don't, I'm going to get very close." Seastrunk got regular carries in just the final six games of the season (in which the Bears went 6-0 ATS), and in that span, he flashed his 4.34 speed in the 40 and ran for 831 yards (8.1 average) and six touchdowns. It may be a small body of work but: beware.

Stat You Will Like: The Baylor defense has regressed in total yards allowed each of the last four years.

PLAY AGAINST: vs. Kansas State (10/12)

IOWA STATE (7/6)
Team Theme: RHOADS TO SUCCESS

At first look one might think that three consecutive 7-loss seasons would start to warm up a coach's seat. Not in Ames where the last two campaigns culminated in bowl games. Hometown hero Paul Rhoads has attendance at an all-time high while last year marked the first time in school history the Cyclones beat a ranked team in three straight seasons. The main task at hand in 2013 is replacing super-star LBs A. J. Klein and Jake Knott, both three-year starters who will be playing on Sundays this season. QB Sam Richardson started the final three games of the season last year and assumes the starting duties. With nine games against bowlers, including each of their six road games, another 7-loss season would be another small step on the long road to success.

Stat You Will Like: Head coach Paul Rhoads was born and raised 10 minutes from Jack Trice Stadium.

PLAY ON: vs. Tulsa (9/21)

KANSAS (*5/4)
Team Theme: DOWN FOR THE COUNT

Going downhill faster than an Olympic slalom racer, Kansas has watched its annual win total fall from 12, to 8, to 5, to 3, to 2, to 1 over the last six years. The good news for 2d year head coach Charlie Weis is that since 1990 there have been a total of 108 Division-1 teams who won exactly one game the previous season, and 89 of those teams went on to improve on that total the following season, while only 3 teams regressed to zero wins. Better news is the Jayhawks return 96% of the rushing yards from a unit that owned the 3rd best running attack in the Big 12 last season. Squaring off against 10 bowlers and snapping a 21-game conference-losing skein is another matter.

Stat You Will Like: Kansas is 1-27 SU from Game Six out the last four years.

PASS

KANSAS STATE (8/2)
Team Theme: GREAT GRAND DAD

As we alluded to last year, not many great grandfathers can lay claim to winning National Coach of the Year honors. You can count on one finger how many of them have done it back-to-back seasons. That gold finger belongs to Bill Snyder who captured the honor once again last year after winning the same award in 2011. This accomplishment justly earned by a legendary coach who inherited a team in the midst of a 0-21-1 run over two decades ago. Last year's Big 12 title was the first for the Wildcats since 2003 and the 3rd in school history. The challenge is on for 2013, though, with QB Collin Klein and nine senior starters from last year's defense now with diplomas in hand.

Stat You Will Like: Three fumbles lost last season tied with Iowa for top honors in the FBS.

PLAY AGAINST: vs. Oklahoma State (10/5)

OKLAHOMA (7/4)
Team Theme: A TOUGH STATE OF MIND

With no less than 11 bowlers from last season dotting the itinerary, the Sooners will be put to the test in 2013. And for the first time since 2007 they will take the field with a new quarterback behind center. That's because 4-year starter Landry Jones, who went 39-11 in his career at OU, is gone. Fortunately a strong upper class (45 seniors and juniors) returns for Bob Stoops, the fastest coach to reach 100 wins in modern history. Stoops also returns as the only coach to reach all four BCS bowl games and the National Championship Game. With 44 players residing on the roster from the state of Texas and 28 from Oklahoma, look for Big Game Bob to improve on his shimmering 69-18 SU all-time mark against teams from either state.

Stat You Will Like: The Sooners are 20-0 SU in games off a regular season loss since 2003.

PLAY ON: vs. Kansas State (11/30)

OKLAHOMA STATE (*7/8)
Team Theme: STRAIGHT SHOOTERS

On the heels of a school record 7-straight bowl games, the Cowboys shoot for 8 in a row behind a revamped coaching staff and ton of talent. Mike Yurcich becomes the third offensive coordinator in four seasons at OSU. His Shippensburg team ranked first nationally among Division II schools in total offense while passing for a nation-best 387.7 YPG last season. With Wes Lunt transferring out, he'll have two quarterbacks at his disposal who shared starting duties for the Cowboys last season in Clint Chief and J. W. Walsh - both of whom combined with Lunt to throw for over 4,000 yards en route to averaging 547 YPG of offense, setting a school record in the process. A brackish schedule finds opponents, other than Kansas, with an 82-47 record last season.

Stat You Will Like: Mike Gundy was 12-15 in his first 27 games with the Cowboys. He's 55-20 since.

PLAY ON: vs. Texas (11/16)

TCU (*6/9)
Team Theme: THE SMOKE HAS CLEARED

Frog fever is back in the air in Fort Worth now that QB Casey Pachall has been cleared to resume duties following his arrest and subsequent suspension for a wacky-tobaccco violation. Pachall returns as the active FBS career passing efficiency leader (163.1). Also back is his replacement last year, sophomore Trevone Boykin, along with leading WR Waymon James and top rusher B. J. Catalon. The fact of the matter is youth served TCU well last year as 20 players made their first career starts, while a total of 28 true and redshirt freshmen played. With the Frogs having been bowlers 11 of 12 years under Gary Patterson, it is no wonder TCU owns the best record in the state of Texas (84-19) since 2005.

Stat You Will Like: TCU has won 47 straight games when it has outrushed its opponent.

PLAY ON: vs. Texas Tech (9/14)

TEXAS (*10/9)
Team Theme: STEERING THE STAMPEDE

The only team in the nation to finish in the final BCS poll in 13 of the last 14 seasons, the Longhorns will mix experience (19 returning starters) with youth (34 of 48 freshmen have played the last two seasons) to form a potentially lethal combination in 2013. This year's squad is loaded offensively with 10 starters back, including the two-headed QB combo of David Ash and Case McCoy who combined to rank 10th in the land in passing efficiency last season. It's the defense that finds them shaking in their boots, one that slipped nearly 100 YPG last season. Here's hoping 9 starters back from a unit that ranked 6th in the FBS in tackles for a loss last year holds up its end of the deal.

Stat You Will Like: Mack Brown has led his teams to winning campaigns in 22 of the last 23 years, including 14 of the last 15 seasons at Texas.

PLAY ON: vs. Kansas State (9/21)

TEXAS TECH (6/9)
Team Theme: PULL BACK FROM THE KLIFF

Following a spat at the conclusion of the 2009 season, Mike Leach left the Red Raiders and took his powerful offensive system with him. The air-miles registered by the Texas Tech offense began to drop like passes to a wide receiver wearing boxing gloves, causing the victory totals to diminish as well, with the Techsters averaging seven wins per season since. However, the hire of former TTRR quarterback Kliff Kingsbury has sparked new life into a dying program and as a result, more fans put off suicide and attended the spring game than ever before, anxious to see WR Eric Ward and a new high-flying offense at work. With 2011 three-star recruit QB Michael Brewer looking to lead an offense back to the Promised Land, Kingsbury's popularity is winning fans over in droves. Let's hope the football team does, too.

Stat You Will Like: The Red Raiders will face nine teams that were in bowl games last season, including seven in their final seven games of the season.

PLAY ON: vs. Baylor (11/16)

WEST VIRGINIA (4/7)
Team Theme: LIGHTS OUT

Like an insomniac, third-year coach Dana Holgorsen has not been sleeping well - at least not since the departure of his entire passing skill offense. QB Geno Smith and his top three wide receivers are off to the NFL, forcing Holgorsen to plug many missing holes from last year's over-the-top 500-yard offense. RB Andrew Buie is the only experienced playmaker returning on offense. Thus the transfer of former Florida State QB Clint Trickett (ruled eligible this season with graduation degree in hand) provides a ray of hope and a chance for slumber. The nightmare persists, however, with a Swiss-cheese defense that surrendered the most points in the Big 12. All this on the heels of a team that had its heart ripped out following a 5-0 start last season. Pass the Ambien, please.

Stat You Will Like: The Mountaineers lose 3,752 passing yards and 42 touchdowns from last year's offense.

PLAY AGAINST: vs. Baylor (10/5)

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF Games of the Year: K-State out for revenge vs. Baylor

Odds are out for the biggest games of the college football season. Covers Expert Bruce Marshall gives you his insight into some of the marquee matchups and predicts where the odds could move before kickoff.

NCAAF Week 7: Saturday, October 12: Baylor (+5) at Kansas State

Past history: Baylor is 2-1 SU but 1-2 ATS in three meetings since 2010, with the home team winning SU in each and the underdog covering in each. All three games have gone “over” as well. The Bears knocked K-State out of a shot at the BCS title game with a 52-24 upset win last November 17 at Waco.

Early look at Baylor: The Bears barely skipped a beat post-RG III in 2012 behind QB Nick Florence, who had filled in for an injured Griffin previously. Now it’s up to junior QB Bryce Perry, who has passed the ball only 14 times in limited previous work. A completely rebuilt OL must gel quickly, but by now it is apparent that HC Art Briles knows what to do with his offenses, and homerun RB Lache Seastrunk is getting peripheral Heisman mention. The stop unit leaked badly last season when ranking 119th nationally, but several playmakers return (especially at the LB spots) for defensive coordinator Phil Bennett, whose platoon did manage to rise to the occasion in late-season wins over K-State, Oklahoma State, and then UCLA in the Holiday Bowl.

Early look at Kansas State: Underestimate veteran HC Bill Snyder at your risk. Replacing do-everything QB Collin Klein would seem to be a tall order, but Snyder and offensive coordinators Del Miller & Dana Dimel think they have two viable candidates in soph Daniel Sams and former juco star Jake Waters. The entire starting OL returns in tact as do most of the skill-position weapons, including RB John Hubert & WR Tyler Lockett. More concerns rest with a “D” that must replace nine starters, but Snyder’s stop units have always been functional, and SS Ty Zimmerman is an established playmaker.

Where the line will move: Both have offered plenty of spread value lately (Baylor 13-4 vs. line last 17 since late 2011, Snyder’s K-State 18-8 the past two seasons), so those trends that might impact movement vs. other foes and likely nullify one another in this game. While the Wildcat “revenge” factor could influence the price, a more telling factor will be how quickly the new QBs on each side are able to get comfy, which are more likely to be reflected in any price adjustments for this mid-October game.

[StarDust Bum]

Pair of SEC schools next on Toledo's ATS hit list?

Who’s it going to be?

That’s the question Toledo Rockets bettors are asking as the 2013 college football season inches closer. The Rockets, picked to contend for the MAC West title this year, have stepped up to scare and sometimes even upset a BCS opponent in each of the past five seasons.

A look at Toledo’s early non-conference slate has fingers pointing at two SEC schools, Florida and Missouri, who take on the Rockets in Weeks 1 and 2 respectively. Oddsmakers have the Rockets tabbed as 21.5-point road underdogs at Gainesville in the season opener.

Last season, Toledo lost 24-17 at Arizona in overtime as a 10-point underdog in Week 1. The year before, it had Ohio State on the ropes before falling 27-22 as a 17.5-point road pup.

In 2010, the Rockets stunned Purdue with a 31-20 victory as 11-point dogs at Ross Ade Stadium and upended Colorado with a 54-38 shootout as 3.5-point home underdogs in 2009.

But perhaps most memorable is Toledo’s 13-10 victory at Michigan in 2008, winning SU and ATS with oddsmakers spotting the team 17.5 points. The Rockets picked off three Wolverines passes, including a 100-yard “Pick 6” from Tyrrell Herbert in the first quarter.

This year’s Toledo squad will be able to score points in a hurry. The Rockets, who averaged 31.5 points in 2012, return dual-threat QB Terrance Owens and RB Doug Fluellen along with a strong receiving corps and four starters on the offensive line.

That offensive firepower doesn’t match up well for Florida – averaged only 26.5 points in 2013 – or Missouri – averaged 25.8 points in 2013. However, the Gators still have a stout defensive unit, which ranked fifth in points against last season.

The Tigers, on the other hand, watched foes tally 28.4 points a game - 68th in the country. If Missouri finds itself in the middle of a shootout with the Rockets, it may not have the stop unit or offensive chops to keep pace.

Toledo is 6-5 ATS versus BCS opponents since 2008.

[StarDust Bum]

Wide open in the Pac-12 South

July 1, 2013

Pac-12 North Preview

2013 PAC-12 South - Schedule Outlook

The college football season is less than two months away, the schedule is set and there are some great disparities within each conference that will impact the conference races. The Pac-12 South was a tight race last season as the heavy favorite USC stumbled and it should be an interesting race again this season. Take a look at the schedules ahead in the Pac-12 South in 2013.
Arizona Wildcats

Rich Rodriguez led an upstart season for the Wildcats last season, finishing 8-5 with a bowl win after a tough 4-8 2011 season. The schedule played a huge role in the disparities between those records and this season Arizona again draws a relatively favorable path. Five of nine Pac-12 games will be on the road but missing Stanford on the schedule is certainly a break and several of the biggest games will be at home. Arizona has a very light non-conference schedule that should ensure a strong start and bye weeks before big road games at Washington and at USC could help the cause for a possible upset. Arizona will need to replace some key players on offense but another solid season could be ahead.

Conference Misses: Oregon State and Stanford

Toughest Back-to-Back: The Wildcats will have a tough finish to the season hosting Oregon in late November and then closing the season at Arizona State. A lot could be on the line for the Wildcats who could have a record that has them in contention in this division, especially if they find a way to win at USC early in the season. Arizona will play back-to-back road games in the middle of the year but this late season set should provide the biggest tests of the year.

Biggest Non-Conference Game: Arizona will play one of the weaker non-conference slates in the conference with home games with Northern Arizona and Texas-San Antonio, leaving a road trip to UNLV as the biggest non-conference test in week 2, even though Arizona should be a solid road favorite in that game.

Arizona State Sun Devils

The Sun Devils started the Pac-12 season 3-0 last year but four consecutive losses dropped them out of the picture. Arizona State has an experienced team back in action and while the overall schedule is tougher this season with two huge non-conference games, the Pac-12 slate lines up nicely featuring the notable omission of Oregon. Arizona State will need to be ready to go early in the year as after an opener against FCS Sacramento State there will be four straight very tough games. It is truly a gauntlet for the Sun Devils playing Wisconsin, Stanford, USC, and Notre Dame in consecutive weeks in late September and early October. It could be smooth sailing after that however and Arizona State will play five of nine Pac-12 games at home.

Conference Misses: California and Oregon

Toughest Back-to-Back: The aforementioned four-game stretch early in the season could be sliced in a number of ways to find the toughest two-game set but the two conference games will be the most critical, playing at Stanford for the first road game of the season and then following that game up with a huge home contest against USC. The Trojans beat Arizona State soundly last season and the Sun Devils have not played Stanford since they nearly upset then #7 Stanford in 2010.

Biggest Non-Conference Game: A big early season game with Wisconsin will be a huge game in Tempe but the chance to play Notre Dame at Cowboys Stadium will certainly be a game the team is looking forward to all season even though it comes at the end of a stretch of very tough games.

Colorado Buffaloes

After a 1-11 season there is nowhere to go but up for Colorado and Mike MacIntyre takes over the program after engineering a successful turnaround at San Jose State. Colorado does miss Stanford on the schedule but they also do not get to play Washington State this year and the Cougars provided Colorado's only win last season. Five of nine games will be on the road for Colorado and the non-conference schedule has two challenging games as well. It is a very tough slate of home games for Colorado featuring Oregon, Arizona, and USC visiting Boulder so the opportunity for a quick turnaround is likely limited.

Conference Misses: Stanford and Washington State

Toughest Back-to-Back: Following up the homecoming game with Arizona, a game that will have a bye week preceding it, Colorado will play back-to-back road games at UCLA and at Washington. While there may be tougher games on the schedule that will be a difficult set of road games with long travel that could take a greater toll late in the season.

Biggest Non-Conference Game: The opener in Denver against Colorado State will be critical. MacIntyre could gain instant credibility if he can win that game and move back to the top of the ladder in the Rocky Mountain State college football landscape. Colorado State won in the rivalry last season and has some promising pieces in place this year but a win would be a great way to provide a spark for the program.

UCLA Bruins

Despite producing mediocre records both years it has been UCLA representing the Pac-12 South in the first two years of the Pac-12 championship game. The Bruins did not win either of those games but they played reasonably well, covering as heavy underdogs in both chances. There is a lot to like about what UCLA is bringing back in Jim Mora's second season in Los Angeles but a very difficult schedule is waiting and will make another championship run a tough task. UCLA plays five road games and two of those games will be against the top two from the North, Stanford and Oregon. The game with USC is also on the road and the non-conference schedule won't offer any easy outs.

Conference Misses: Oregon State and Washington State

Toughest Back-to-Back: It could not get any tougher in this conference as the Bruins have to play Stanford and Oregon in consecutive weeks in October with both of those games coming on the road. UCLA will play all nine Pac-12 games in consecutive weeks without a bye week so the late season games will also be challenging but it is certainly hard to imagine the Bruins sweeping this brutal October set and it will be very hard to avoid a 0-2 hit in the conference race.

Biggest Non-Conference Game: An opener against Nevada will be an important challenge but a week 3 game at Nebraska will be a huge national game and a showcase opportunity for the conference. UCLA won 36-30 at home in a minor upset last season so the challenge could be greater this year in Lincoln but a win would propel the Bruins to forefront of this division.

USC Trojans

Despite being a very popular national title pick USC slogged through an ugly 7-6 campaign last season, going just 5-4 in conference play. Injuries played a role but so far the Lane Kiffin era has offered quite a bit of disappointment. Things could line up nicely for USC this season however as they do not have to play Oregon and they draw Stanford at home. USC gets five of nine conference games at home and the non-conference slate is manageable. Playing at Hawaii to open the season will give USC an extra game this season and there are six road games on the schedule but overall this is favorable slate in this division.

Conference Misses: Oregon and Washington

Toughest Back-to-Back: The toughest set of games may come late in the season with back-to-back road games at Oregon State and then at California. While USC may be favored in both games neither will be an easy draw at that point in the season and a huge home game with Stanford could create a look-ahead situation for the second game in Berkeley. While this schedule lines up well for USC, there are definitely no breaks or weak FCS foes like many of the other prominent national programs will have included in their schedules.

Biggest Non-Conference Game: As usual the biggest game will be with Notre Dame. Last season that match came at the end of the year with the world on the line for the Irish while USC was stumbling through an ugly season and playing without its starting quarterback. It will be a much bigger game for USC this season being played in the middle of the year and on the road.

Utah Utes

Utah has enjoyed one of the best schedules in the Pac-12 in its first two years in the conference but the Utes failed to take advantage, going just 8-5 in 2011 and really struggling last season with an ugly 5-7 finish to snap a long bowl streak. Utah will have a schedule featuring three four-game blocks separated with bye weeks and it will be a challenging slate with difficult road games. Five of nine conference games will be at home but the North draw is tough with Oregon and Stanford both on the map. Non-conference games with Utah State and BYU keeps this schedule relatively tough overall and it may be difficult for the Utes to make a big jump in improvement.

Conference Misses: California and Washington

Toughest Back-to-Back: The toughest month of the season will be in October as the Utes host UCLA and Stanford in back-to-back weeks including a primetime Thursday night game and then the homecoming game. Yes, the homecoming game will be against Stanford, a program that has gone 35-5 the last three years finishing high in the national rankings. Following up that game will be a back-to-back road game set and that will be at Arizona and then at USC, two very tough games in what could be a problematic stretch in the schedule.

Biggest Non-Conference Game: While they are no longer conference rivals, Utah and BYU will face off in Provo in late September. Last season Utah held on for a narrow win, the third in a row in the series but it could be a tougher game this year and it will follow-up the conference opener for the Utes which could be less than ideal.

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Ducks, Cardinal to battle

June 28, 2013


2013 PAC-12 North - Schedule Outlook

The football season is just two months away and while there are many position battles to be determined, the schedule is set and there are some great disparities within each conference that will impact the conference races. The Pac-12 featured a very interesting race last season with two great teams in the North and a mess in the South, will there be balance restored this season? Take a look at the schedules ahead in the Pac-12 North in 2013.

California Golden Bears

The Bears were a big disappointment last season, going just 3-9 despite nearly beating Ohio State as well as crushing eventual Pac-12 South champion UCLA in the first half of the season. After three successful seasons at Louisiana Tech, new Bears head coach Sonny Dykes takes over for longtime coach Jeff Tedford. There has been a lot of player turnover and California will face one of the toughest schedules in the conference with five of nine conference games on the road plus a fairly tough draw from the South division that includes both USC and UCLA.

Conference Misses: Arizona State and Utah

Toughest Back-to-Back: After a bye week the Bears open the Pac-12 season in late September at Oregon in what will be a huge game for the team, particularly if the Bears are sitting with a loss or two after playing two quality Big Ten teams in non-conference play. The Ducks will be heavy favorites but Oregon is also going through a transition. Regardless of the result it may be tough to keep focused for the homecoming game the following week against what could be an improved Washington State squad in a possible letdown spot after two big national games.

Biggest Non-Conference Game: The Bears will host Ohio State in the third week of the season and with a bye week following that game. The Buckeyes will be facing their first road game of the season and should be highly ranked when they visit Berkeley. Last season California out-gained Ohio State by 100 yards in a near comeback in Columbus, eventually falling 35-28 in an exciting game.

Oregon Ducks

The Ducks have a new coaching staff and will look for a fourth consecutive 12-win season in 2013. Oregon was not able to survive the North division last season with a late season loss to Stanford and that game will loom large again this season. The Ducks will play two quality non-conference games early in the year and Oregon does have a favorable conference draw, missing perhaps the top two teams in the South division and getting five of the nine conference games at home. The big rematch with Stanford will be on the road however. This is a team with a schedule conducive to another great season.

Conference Misses: Arizona State and USC

Toughest Back-to-Back: Oregon fans have to love this Pac-12 schedule as there are not a lot of overly challenging stretches on the schedule provided this team does not face a steep drop-off in performance in the transition. Even though there is a bye week ahead of the Thursday night affair the toughest set of games will start with the huge rematch at Stanford in early November. That game will be projected to determine the division champion and it would not be a surprise if both teams are undefeated at the time. A follow-up game at home against Utah could be a possible letdown spot for Oregon as it will be the first crack at the Ducks for Utah since they joined the Pac-12.

Biggest Non-Conference Game: While Virginia could be a stronger team than Tennessee this year, any shot at a SEC team will be taken very seriously by an Oregon team that has failed in its last two chances, losing badly to LSU in 2011 and falling to Auburn in the BCS Championship game the previous season. In the third week of the season Oregon will host a Tennessee team also going through a transition and it could be a challenging spot after the cross country trip the previous week playing at Virginia.

Oregon State Beavers

After a tough 2011 season Oregon State rebounded nicely with a 9-4 season last year, falling the Alamo Bowl against Texas after competing well in the Pac-12 North race. After opening last year with a marquee win against Wisconsin the non-conference slate is softer this season and this is an experienced team that could vie for a dark horse role in the Pac-12 again. The schedule does present some challenges however and getting to the top of the conference is not likely with this slate.

Conference Misses: Arizona and UCLA

Toughest Back-to-Back: While both games are at home the make-or-break point in the season will be in late October and early November, hosting Stanford for homecoming and then hosting USC on a Friday night primetime game. While the early season schedule will be no cakewalk, including four road games in a six-week span, the Beavers should have a strong record at that point in the year and that two-game stretch surrounding Halloween will determine which direction the Beavers go.

Biggest Non-Conference Game: The Beavers will open the Pac-12 season with an early match in Utah in the third week of the season and then a tricky follow-up game at San Diego State for a second straight road game and long travel could be a spot where getting tripped up is very possible. The Aztecs will have an experienced defense and two weeks to prepare, likely coming off a loss at Ohio State which could add to the potential challenge for Oregon State to survive.

Stanford Cardinal

Expectations were grounded for Stanford last season but David Shaw is now 23-4 in two seasons replacing Jim Harbaugh, delivering a Rose Bowl championship last season. Stanford could have one of the best defenses in the nation this season but there is some work to do on offense. The schedule provides the chance for a great start but November will be a daunting month even with three of the final four games on the schedule at home. This is a team that has a chance at a special season but they do face arguably the toughest Pac-12 South draw in this division. A benefit is only playing three true road games in conference play however as the Washington State road game will be played in Seattle.

Conference Misses: Arizona and Colorado

Toughest Back-to-Back: While upsets are not rare in the Pac-12, Stanford should be favored in the first eight games of the season. After an off week in early November the Cardinal will have a gauntlet to close the year, starting with a Thursday primetime game with Oregon and then facing a daunting to road game at USC the following week. Wins in those two games could put the Cardinal in the national title hunt; losses, or even just a loss, could cost Stanford a shot at defending the Pac-12 title.

Biggest Non-Conference Game: The final game of the season will be a huge one for Stanford with Notre Dame visiting. Last year’s game in South Bend was one for the ages and ending with great controversy. While it appears unlikely that the Irish will be undefeated again at that point it should still be a critical game for both teams, perhaps with a BCS bowl bid in the mix for the victor.

Washington Huskies

Washington was saddled with a very tough schedule last season and despite the challenges and a slow start the Huskies managed a third straight winning season. Getting over the 7-6 hump will not be easy in this division but Washington does catch some breaks in the schedule this year with a slightly weaker non-conference slate and the benefit of missing USC from the South draw. Washington also gets to play five of nine conference games at home. The road schedule is daunting with all four conference road games looking like big challenges however but this is one of the most experienced teams in the conference.

Conference Misses: USC and Utah

Toughest Back-to-Back: The middle of the season will be a difficult grind for the Huskies and Washington will have to face likely the top two teams in the division in consecutive weeks in early October, playing at Stanford and then hosting Oregon. A game at Arizona State is next in line making for a very tricky second month of the season. Washington also has back-to-back road games late in the year at UCLA and at Oregon State as there are certainly some steep hurdles in this slate.

Biggest Non-Conference Game: Washington has played several marquee non-conference games in recent years but few of them have gone favorably. This year the season opens at home with perennial BCS buster Boise State in town. That may be the perfect time to face a rebuilding Boise State squad but the Broncos have a great track record in these types of games early in the year and it will be a critical tone-setting game for both teams.

Washington State Cougars

There was a lot of excitement last season with Mike Leach taking over at Washington State but the season opened with a thud, scoring just six points in an opening loss. While Washington State was competitive in several games the end result was just 3-9, a game worse than the previous season under Paul Wulff. Given the radical changes on offense it was not going to be an overnight success story but more pressure will be on this season for the Cougars. The season opens with a bang and does not get much easier with just three true home games in conference play and having to play most of the top teams from the South division while missing lowly Colorado.

Conference Misses: Colorado and UCLA

Toughest Back-to-Back: Last season’s opening game set the tone for a disappointing year in Pullman and this year the first two weeks will provide another important measuring stick for this team. 0-2 is the likely result but it will be important for the Cougars to score some points and show that they can compete in two big road games to kick off the season, playing at Auburn on the opening weekend and then opening up Pac-12 play at USC the following week. The long travel and tough matchups could take a serious toll or it could spark Washington State to a new level of success if they pull off an upset or at least look the part.

Biggest Non-Conference Game: As mentioned the opening game at Auburn will be a critical starting point for the Cougars. The Tigers have SEC talent but are also going through a coaching change and are coming off a very disappointing year so the opportunity for a huge wave-making win is possible for the Washington State program.

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NCAAF Games of the Year: Don't second-guess Stanford-OSU line

Week 9: Stanford Cardinal at Oregon State Beavers (+3)

Past history: Stanford is 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS since 2010, with OSU managing to barely cover (at +4.5) in last year’s tight 27-23 Cardinal win at Palo Alto; 1-2 O/U in those games. The Beavers’ last series win was a 38-28 success at Corvallis in 2009.

Early look at Stanford: The Cardinal are getting plenty of attention as they look for a fourth straight BCS visit and perhaps their first title game invitation. The emergence of sophomore QB Kevin Hogan as an exciting playmaker late last season solved what had been a post-Andrew Luck dilemma for head coach David Shaw. Four starters also return along a punishing OL and a committee of capable RBs is expected to replace the graduated Stepfan Taylor. But Stanford’s recent renaissance has been fueled as much by a robust defense that returns eight starters and most key playmakers from last year’s platoon. The “Tree” is also 16-3-1 ATS on the road since 2010.

Early look at Oregon State: With the pressure reduced in Corvallis after OSU responded with a 9-4 mark in a must-win 2012 season for head coach Mike Riley, the Beavers address a pleasant QB dilemma after winning for both Sean Mannion and Cody Vaz last season. Key skill-position weapons WR Brandon Crooks and RB Storm Woods return, as do four OL starters. The defense also upgraded last fall and has an upper class-look about it, although veteran defensive coordinator Mark Banker is going to need JuCo transfers at DT to hit the ground running. Banker’s pass coverage should be even better this fall after the platoon became acclimated to nickel-and-dime looks on a regular basis in 2012. Also note, Riley’s 25-11-1 ATS mark as a dog since 2007.

Where the line will move: It is not unrealistic to project an unbeaten OSU entering this game, especially since the Beavers are likely to be favored in their first seven outings. Stanford, off a high-profile battle with UCLA the previous week and looking forward to the Oregon showdown 12 days hence, could be in a tricky sandwich spot in Corvallis and the Beavers should be in rabid revenge mode after they gave the game away in last year’s bitter loss on The Farm. While at first glance, this number might appear a bit light and offer some value on Stanford. If the season proceeds as expected, it would be no surprise if the price moves slightly in OSU’s direction.
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NCAAF Top 5: Best road bets in college football

Covering the college football pointspread on the road either takes a ton of talent or for a bad team to be a little bit better than oddsmakers’ expectations. That’s what we’ve discovered after digging up the best NCAAF road bets over the past five seasons.

Records from 2008-2012. Includes away, neutral-site and bowl games.

Boise State Broncos (32-3 SU, 26-9 ATS)

Teams fear the “Smurf Turf” in Boise but bettors should have just as much respect for the Broncos when they hit the road. Since joining the Mountain West Conference, BSU is 13-1 SU and 10-4 ATS away from home. Boise State opens the schedule with a trip to Washington in Week 1 as a 3-point underdog and is a 3-point pup at BYU in Week 9.

Alabama Crimson Tide (29-4 SU, 24-9 ATS)

The Crimson Tide have lost just eight games over the past five years and have been especially stout on the road. Despite three national titles in the last four seasons and mountains of chalk, Alabama holds its value thanks to NFL-ready talent and Nick Saban’s unrelenting approach. According to the Golden Nuggets’ odds, Bama is an average favorite of 20 points for its five available road spreads.

Western Kentucky Hilltoppers (10-22 SU, 21-9-2 ATS)

You don’t have to compete for a BCS bowl to be a solid road bet. The Hilltoppers’ road record is proof of that. Western Kentucky went 6-1 ATS away from home last season, including a 35-0 beating at the hands of Alabama which stayed within the 38-point spread. WKU plays three of its first four games on the road in 2013.

UL Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns (14-21 SU, 25-10 ATS)

UL Lafayette has undergone a transformation the past two seasons after struggling to gain traction in the Sun Belt between 2008-2010. The Ragin’ Cajuns won nine games while posting an 8-5 ATS mark in 2012. But even before then, ULL was making money on the road. In 2010, when the Cajuns won just three games, they still posted a profitable 6-1 ATS record on the road.

Stanford Cardinal (19-14 SU, 22-10-1 ATS)

The Cardinal seem to be a constant quiet contender in the Pac-12 and have been at their best in enemy territory. Stanford is 16-3-1 ATS on the road over the past three seasons – 82.5 percent – including a 5-1 ATS road mark last year. Stanford is a favorite in all but one of its four conference road tilts, getting one point at Southern Cal in Week 12.

Other notables:

Bowling Green Falcons (17-18 SU, 23-11-1 ATS)
Ball State Cardinals (18-17 SU, 24-11 ATS)
Ohio State Buckeyes (18-9 SU, 18-8-1 ATS)
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NCAAF Games of the Year: LSU out for revenge hosting Gators

NCAAF Week 7: Florida Gators at LSU Tigers (-4)

Past History: Florida 3-2 SU/ATS Last 5 Years

Early Look at Florida: A great second season in Gainesville was somewhat marred by an ugly loss to Louisville in the Sugar Bowl (as two-touchdown favorites). Their only regular season loss came to Georgia, a game that saw the Gators turn the ball over six times. With only 10 returning starters on both sides of the ball and a suspect offense, UF ranks behind both Georgia and South Carolina in the SEC East pecking order coming into the year. A brutal schedule featuring only three league home games and LSU, South Carolina and Georgia all away is also cause for concern.

Early Look at LSU: No team in the country lost more talent to the NFL than the Bayou Bengals, who saw 10 players from last year’s squad declare early. Les Miles has only 12 returning starters in Baton Rouge and, as a result, they too are being pegged for third place in their division (behind Alabama and Texas A&M). There is a good chance the Tigers will be ranked outside the Top 11 for only the third time in 11 years at the start of the season. Despite losing only three games in 2012, last season was considered disappointing for the program.

Where This Line Will Move: LSU is at home and playing with revenge, so the natural lean for the public will be in their direction. Barring anything unforeseen, this should be the 10th straight meeting where both teams are ranked in the Top 25.

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NCAAF Games of the Year: Ohio State big home faves vs. Wisconsin

NCAAF Week 5: Wisconsin Badgers at Ohio State Buckeyes (-11)

Past History: Ohio State 4-1 SU/ATS vs. Wisconsin last five Years

Early Look at Wisconsin: There are major changes in Madison right now with Brett Bielema bolting for “greener pastures” in the SEC. Gary Andersen (Utah State) takes over and inherits a program that has been to the Rose Bowl three consecutive years (lost all three). Don't be fooled by last year’s 8-6 record, as all six defeats came by seven points or less, one of them to Ohio State in Madison, making this a huge revenge game. The Badgers have 14 returning starters and are the clear challenger to the Buckeyes in the Big Ten Leaders Division. They have a win total of 8.5, which seems low.

Early Look at Ohio State: Things could not have gone better during Urban Meyer’s first season in Columbus, as the Buckeyes ran the table and finished 12-0. Well, there was that one “small” caveat. They were ineligible to play for a Big Ten or BCS Championship. Now cleared of NCAA sanctions, many have the Buckeyes finishing the regular season unbeaten one more time and potentially playing Alabama for a national championship. They will be favored in every game. One interesting tidbit is that this could be the only year that they play arch rival Michigan in successive weeks (regular season finale, Big Ten Championship Game). Quarterback Braxton Miller is a Heisman Trophy favorite and this is a legit BCS title contender.

Where This Line Will Move: With this being the Big Ten opener for both schools, there’s a good chance it will be a battle of unbeaten teams. Ohio State definitely will be 4-0. Wisconsin does have a road trip to Arizona State to worry about. With the game in Columbus and Ohio State being a public team, look for Wisconsin to be getting even more points by kickoff. The Badgers have, however, dropped seven of their last eight Big Ten road openers.

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2013 CUSA Preview

July 1, 2013

Life without a scorecard around these parts would be like going to a wet tee-shirt contest with a blindfold. It just doesn’t make sense.

With six new teams joining the affiliation, comprising a pair of 7-team divisions, a scorecard in the Conference USA is a must these days.

According to our scorecard, CUSA loses Houston, Memphis, SMU and UCF to the American Athletic Conference (the former Big East). Meanwhile they import Charlotte, FAU, FIU, Louisiana Tech, North Texas, and Texas-San Antonio in 2013.

If expansion talk like this isn’t dizzying enough, the loop welcomes four new head coaches in 2013, including Ron Turner (FIU), Skip Holtz (Louisiana Tech), Todd Monken (Southern Miss) and Sean Kugler (UTEP), while breaking in six new starting quarterbacks as well.

Stepping outside the conference, members will take on 18 games against foes from the Big10, the Big12 and the SEC. In head-to-head games against these three super conferences, the CUSA stands 45-206 straight up and 110-134-5 against the spread since the inception the conference, including a super-scary 2-117 SU and 39-83-2 ATS in games in which they fail to score 17 points. Against all other non-conference foes the loop stands 343-324 SU overall.

And despite its BCS non-AQ status, the CUSA has performed well of late with 10 different teams from the conference participating in 45 bowl games over the last eight years. They’ve really held their own in these post-season affairs, going 22-23 SU and 23-21-1 ATS.

Interestingly, in that span against .666 or greater bowl opponents the CUSA is 15-9 SU and 17-7 ATS, while just 7-14 SU and 6-14-1 ATS versus sub .666 foes. (Go figure)

So when it comes to partying take off the blindfold and, like the teams in this loop, just go for it and enjoy.

Note: Numbers following team name represent the amount of returning starters on offense and defense, with an asterisk (*) designating a returning quarterback. Potential designated ‘Play On’ and ‘Play Against’ Best Bets follow each team’s preview.

East Division

EAST CAROLINA (*8/8)
Team Theme: RUFFIN READY
After serving 10 years as an assistant under Mike Leach at Texas Tech, former ECU alum (and 4-year football letterman) Ruffin McNeil knew it was his time when the Pirates brought him aboard as the head coach in 2010. A 19-19 record does not have the fan base clamoring for him to walk the plank, but his breakout season looks to be at hand in 2013. After 51 players made their first-ever collegiate starts with the Pirates in his first two seasons, he featured only three senior starters on offense in 2012. As a result, ECU will field the second-highest number of returning starts of all FBS teams this year: 355, including 215 from last season. With 25 seniors and 24 juniors (50.5% upper classmen) putting on the pads, including record-setting QB Shane Carden, the Pirates are ready to push the envelope.

Stat You Will Like: 75% of the Pirates lettermen return in 2013.

PLAY ON: vs. North Carolina (9/28)

FLORIDA ATLANTIC (7/8)
Team Theme: MOVIN’ ON UP

Like the Jeffersons, FAU finds itself moving on up to Conference USA beginning this football season. It didn’t take new head coach Carl Pelini long to make his mark in Boca Raton, where his Owls dramatically improved their offensive numbers in his first year at the helm in 2012. A 101-yard improvement rewarded backers as well with a nifty 8-3 pointspread mark. With 15 starters back, they’re prepared to move up in class this campaign. The good news is they will face only two opponents that participated in a bowl game last season, and will close out the season against seven losing squads. The feeling here, though, is the combination of sophomore blues and a tougher neighborhood may find the Owls asleep on the ATS perch in 2013.

Stat You Will Like: FAU improved from No. 117 to No. 64 in penalty yards per game under Pelini last season.

PLAY AGAINST: at UAB (10/5)

FLORIDA INTERNATIONAL (*3/3)
Team Theme: TURNING A NEW CORNER

Along with their neighborhood cousins Florida Atlantic, FIU moves in a new direction by joining Conference USA in 2013. In addition, they bring along new head coach Ron Turner, a former boss at Illinois and San Jose State. The former Big 10 Coach of the Year (Illinois 2001) will need all of his coaching skills as he finds the cupboard bare with only three starters back on both sides of the ball after the Panthers lost nearly 30 seniors to graduation. The good news is 22 true or redshirt freshmen made their debut last season, while 28 players who sat out because of redshirt, injury or transfer status will be suiting up in 2013. Keeping oft-injured QB Jake Medlock healthy is crucial.

Stat You Will Like: Turner is 6-23 ATS in games off a SUATS loss in his college career.

PLAY ON: vs. Marshall (11/23)

MARSHALL (*8/7)
Team Theme: GREEN COLORED GLASSES

When Doc Holliday arrived in town three years ago he promised to fire-up an offense that appeared to have run out of bullets. They’ve re-loaded since, with the buy-sign coming last year when the Doctor’s offense improved a whopping 201 YPG. Puzzling, though, was the fact that after going 7-1 in one-possession games (games decided by a touchdown or less) his first two seasons with a popgun attack, his troops plummeted to 2-4 in the same games last year. The blame can be placed on a defense that has been in decline since Holliday’s arrival. With plenty of offensive power on hand in the likes of QB Rakeem Cato (CUSA MVP) and WR Tommy Shuler (110 receptions in 2012), things will improve when and if the defense does.

Stat You Will Like: In addition to Cato and Shuler, the Thundering Herd offense returns its top three running backs, TE Gator Hoskins (10 TDs) and a whopping eight linemen with starting experience.

PLAY ON: vs. East Carolina (11/30)

MIDDLE TENNESSEE STATE (*9/8)
Team Theme: NO STANDING STILL

The hire of Rick Stockstill at MTSU in 2006 has paid off in spades. He has demonstrated the ability to develop and coach big-time players throughout his career, having worked 24 years as an assistant with legendary coaches Lou Holtz, Steve Spurrier, Danny Ford, Tommy Bowden, Ken Hatfield and Tommy West. Coaching is in his blood and it was apparent last year when he led the Blue Raiders to the nation’s biggest win improvement of +6 games, including a school record 5 FBS road wins. Headed to the Conference USA, seventeen starters are back for more, led by senior QB Logan Kilgore who has enjoyed back-to-back 2,000-yard seasons. Going up against only two bowl teams in 2013, anything less than a bowl would be substandard.

Stat You Will Like: In his tenure at MTSU, Rick Stockstill’s teams have gone from an APR score of 892 to 983, the biggest increase of any program in the country.

PLAY ON: vs. North Carolina (9/7)

SOUTHERN MISS (4/9)
Team Theme: HERO TO ZERO

On paper it looked like the right move. Ellis Johnson, a four-year defensive coordinator at South Carolina under Steve Spurrier, was in for the departed Larry Fedora. His job was to extend the Eagles' 18-year win skein, if not somehow improve on 2011's school-best 12-win effort. It turns out Johnson became the poster-boy for the Peter Principle when he led his team to ZERO wins. Like a candle in the wind, his flame burned out long before his legend ever did. Enter Todd Monken, former offensive coordinator at Oklahoma State. He is the third Golden Eagles head coach of the last four hired whose previous job was OC with the Cowboys. The good news for Monken: Zero-win lined teams have gone 248-439-4 the next season since 1991.

Stat You Will Like: David Duggan, Southern Miss defensive coordinator in 2011, returns as DC this season.

PLAY ON: vs. Texas State (8/31)

UAB (*8/8)
Team Theme: OINTMENT APPLIED

Former Arkansas offensive coordinator Garrick McGee was fully aware of what it was he was getting into when he assumed the reins at UAB last season. He inherited a team on a 7-year losing skid and a defense that was torched for more than 500 yards on seven occasions. The seven-year itch wouldn’t go away but a solid improvement on both sides of the ball provides the salve needed to soften the wounds. Led by returning QB Austin Brown’s school record 309 passing YPG, and joined by last year’s leading WR Jackie Williams and top RB Darrin Reaves, the Blazers take the field in 2013 with the look of a team ready to turn the corner.

Stat You Will Like: Four returning wide receivers caught 40 or more passes last season.

PLAY ON: vs. Troy (8/31)

West Division

LOUISIANA TECH (3/4)
Team Theme: BOW-WOW

You know the tale of Mother Hubbard going to the cupboard to get her poor dog a bone, only to find the cupboard bare. That same verse is running through new coach Skip Holtz’s head as he assumes the reins in Ruston with a total of 7 starters back from last years record-setting squad that tallied 51 PPG and 578 YPG en route to a 9-2 season. Unfortunately, the program turned down an Independence Bowl invite hoping for a more high-profile game, only to have their porous defense (allowed 526 YPG) fail to impress the bowl scouts elsewhere – thus, the Bulldogs remained home for the holidays. Skippy will need to rely on his playbook more than ever this season with QB Colby Cameron (4,147 pass yards) listed among the departed. Sophomore RB Kenneth Dixon (1,194 rushing yards) will be heavily counted upon to carry the load.

Stat You Will Like: Skip Holtz is 15-3 ATS as a dog versus a .500 or less opponent.

Pass

NORTH TEXAS (*8/8)
Team Theme: SMOOTH OPERATOR

Dan McCarney’s operation of weaning JUCO’s and concentrating instead on recruits showed promising signs - on the stat sheet at least - last season when the Mean Green improved its numbers on both sides of the ball despite slipping both SU & ATS. Longtime followers of this publication know what that equation means – expected improvement this season. For the first time in 60 years NTSU had three players rush for more than 500 yards in a single season and two of them are back in 2013. They join senior QB Derek Thompson to form a potent backfield. Coupled with a defense that allowed the fewest points in a season since 2006, the transition to the CUSA could be smoother than anticipated.

Stat You Will Like: North Texas’ offensive line allowed the fewest sacks in the nation last season (6).

PLAY ON: vs. Middle Tennessee State (10/12)

RICE (*9/10)
Team Theme: MANY HAPPY RETURNS

A 5-game season-ending win skein is not all that propels the Owls into the 2013 season. For the first time in head coach David Bailiff’s seven-year tenure, the entire coaching staff returns intact. In addition, 19 returning starters dot the roster led by QB Taylor McHargue. The clincher, though, is the fact that 14 freshmen debuted last season and they combine with an FBS-best 233 returning starts from last year’s team to bring experience aplenty. That makes the wide-eyed Owls a major player in the CUSA this campaign. Think not? Then chew on this: last year’s 3-3 SU and 4-2 ATS away mark put a halt to a 1-17 SU and 5-13 ATS road mark since 2009.

Stat You Will Like: The Owls led the nation in time of possession (33:59) last season.

PLAY ON: as a dog vs. Louisiana Tech (11/16) - *Key off win

TULANE (8/8)
Team Theme: I SAY A LITTLE PRAYER FOR C.J.

When C. J. Johnson brought his 25 years of coaching experience, along with some flashy hardware – namely: a Super Bowl trophy during his stint with the New Orleans Saints and a national championship ring as an assistant at Miami Florida – the hope was his glossy resume would be a good start toward recovery for a program that has wallowed 10 straight years on the south side of .500. Year Two of the rebuilding project finds hope with 16 starters back, including all-CUSA WR Ryan Grant (led the conference in receiving yards last year). The wish is that JUCO transfer QB Nick Montana will assume the reins and walk on by to the north side of the barrier. The wishin’ and hopin’ continues in the Big Easy.

Stat You Will Like: PK Cairo Santos was the winner of the 2012 Lou Groza award. Santos nailed 21 of 21 field goals last season.

PLAY AGAINST: as a favorite vs. North Texas (10/5)

TULSA (*7/3)
Team Theme: STARSHIP ENTERPRISE

Replacing 4-year starter G.J. Kinne proved to be no problem for Bill Blankenship’s Golden Hurricane last season when they tied a school record with 11 wins thanks to a same-season revenge win over Iowa State in the Liberty Bowl. QB Cody Green, along with his top three wide receivers and two running backs, are back for more, giddy as all get-out after winning Tulsa’s first conference title since 2005. In fact, no other senior class has managed to top the 29 wins recorded by this group in school history. After venturing where few other Tulsa teams have gone before, Blankenship’s star-studded no-huddle spread offense will hope a gutted defense, sans the entire D-line, doesn’t let their efforts go to waste.

Stat You Will Like: Blankenship is 15-2 SU and 12-5 ATS in conference games with the Hurricane, including 4-0 SUATS off a loss.

PLAY AGAINST: vs. Marshall (11/14)

UTEP (7/4)
Team Theme: GLORY DAYS

If kudos and coaching pedigree are a part of the equation when it comes to evaluating a new coach then the Miners struck gold this off-season when they inked Sean Kugler to replace Mike Price. “There’s absolutely no question that he’s the best football coach I’ve ever been around,” beamed Boise State head coach Chris Peterson. Kugler is a former UTEP offensive lineman who spent one year with the Broncos in between eleven years as an assistant with the Bills, Lions and Steelers in the NFL. To top it off he hired Scott Stoker as his defensive coordinator. Stoker, the 2011 FCS DC Coach Of The Year guided Sam Houston State to consecutive FCS National Title games. Ex-Texas A&M QB Jameill Showers, who played behind Ryan Tannehill in 2011 and Johnny Manziel in 2012, will usher in the Kugler era.

Stat You Will Like: New OC Patrick Higgins, former UTEP offensive coordinator (2000-03), served as interim OC and interim head coach at Purdue last season.

PASS

UTSA (10/8)
Team Theme: REBORN IN THE USA

After spending its first-year as an FBS member in the WAC, the Roadrunners are off to the Conference USA. This upstart program will become a full-fledged FBS program and bowl eligible in 2014. That’s good news for a program built from the ground up by former national championship head coach Larry Coker, who is 72-25 with a .742 career win percentage, as he has appeared in 18 bowl games in his collegiate career with his teams winning 14 of those contests. But first things first as the jump to a tougher neighborhood will likely dampen last year’s successful debut. 18 returning starters in 2013 – and 21 last year – make this a seasoned lot. Remember, though, only half of their 8 wins last season were against FBS squads, and those teams finished up 8-41.

Stat You Will Like: NBC Sports personality Michelle Beadle is a Texas-San Antonio alum.

PASS