The Bum's NBA Regular and Playoff Season's Best Bets !!

[StarDust Bum]

Tuesday, June 11

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Miami - 9:00 PM ET Miami +2 500 POD # 1


San Antonio - Under 187.5 500 POD # 2

[StarDust Bum]

NBA
Dunkel

Miami at San Antonio
The Heat look to bounce back from their Game 3 loss and build on their 6-1 ATS record in their last 7 games when trailing in a playoff series. Miami is the pick (+2) according to Dunkel, which has the Heat favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Miami (+2). Here are all of today's picks.

THURSDAY, JUNE 13

Game 707-708: Miami at San Antonio (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 131.185; San Antonio 130.285
Dunkel Line & Total: Miami by 1; 191
Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 2; 187
Dunkel Pick: Miami (+2); Over




NBA
Long Sheet

Thursday, June 13

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MIAMI (79 - 22) at SAN ANTONIO (72 - 27) - 6/13/2013, 9:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN ANTONIO is 101-73 ATS (+20.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 81-58 ATS (+17.2 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 52-33 ATS (+15.7 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) against Southeast division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 269-208 ATS (+40.2 Units) after a non-conference game since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 22-11 ATS (+9.9 Units) in non-conference games this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 44-31 ATS (+9.9 Units) after a win by 10 points or more over the last 2 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 24-12 ATS (+10.8 Units) after scoring 105 points or more this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 59-42 ATS (+12.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 141-106 ATS (+24.4 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
MIAMI is 56-45 ATS (+6.5 Units) in all games this season.
MIAMI is 29-20 ATS (+7.0 Units) in road games this season.
MIAMI is 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) after a non-conference game this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN ANTONIO is 4-4 against the spread versus MIAMI over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 5-3 straight up against SAN ANTONIO over the last 3 seasons
4 of 8 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Thursday, June 13

Parker strained a hamstring in Game 3, returned for 1:30 but left because the game wasn't close. Impossible for us to tell how hampered he is; it is possible they don't even know. Heat's spread results in last nine games are LWLWLWLWL; Miami won and covered game following its last 11 losses; last time they lost consecutive games was Jan 8-10, at Indiana, Portland. Heat is 3-23 in franchise history at this site. James took six foul shots in first three series games; he needs to go to basket more. Five of last six Miami games stayed under total; six of Spurs' last seven home games went over. Spurs are 7-1 at home in playoffs; Green is leading scorer in series thru first three games- go figure.




NBA

Thursday, June 13

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Trend Report
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9:00 PM
MIAMI vs. SAN ANTONIO
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Miami's last 13 games when playing on the road against San Antonio
Miami is 2-13 SU in its last 15 games when playing on the road against San Antonio
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of San Antonio's last 13 games when playing at home against Miami
San Antonio is 13-2 SU in its last 15 games when playing at home against Miami


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NBA

Thursday, June 13

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Heat at Spurs: What bettors need to know
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Miami Heat at San Antonio Spurs (-1.5, 187)

Spurs lead best-of-seven series 2-1.

The status of San Antonio point guard Tony Parker is up in the air as the host Spurs attempt to take a 3-1 lead over the Miami Heat in Thursday’s Game 4 of the NBA Finals. Parker underwent an MRI exam on Wednesday and the results displayed a mild strain of his right hamstring and he’s listed as day to day. Miami attempts to rebound from a 113-77 loss that stands as the third-largest margin of defeat in Finals history.

Heat forward LeBron James is blaming himself for the 36-point loss after he scored under 20 points for the third consecutive game. He promises a much better effort in Game 4. “I take full responsibility for our team’s performance (Tuesday) night,” James said. “Me as a leader, I can’t afford to perform like I did and expect us to win on the road. It’s that simple. So I’m putting all the pressure on my chest, on my shoulders, to come through for our team. That’s the way it is.” San Antonio made an NBA Finals record 16 3-pointers on Tuesday and guard Danny Green is 16-for-23 from behind the arc in the series after making seven in Game 3.

TV: 9 p.m. ET, ABC

ABOUT THE HEAT: James is averaging a pedestrian 16.7 points and making just 38.9 percent of his field-goal attempts. The Heat were outscored by 32 points with him on the floor in Game 3, an embarrassing fact for the four-time NBA MVP. James isn’t receiving much help from center Chris Bosh, who hasn’t scored more than 13 points in the series and is averaging just 9.3 points over the past seven games. Guard Dwyane Wade also is having an underwhelming series, averaging 14.3 points. Veteran swingman Mike Miller scored 15 points on 5-of-5 3-point shooting in Game 3 and has made eight straight 3-pointers over the past two games. He is 10-for-11 shooting in the series, including 9-of-10 from 3-point range.

ABOUT THE SPURS: Parker’s ailing hamstring created more playing time for reserve Gary Neal, who made six 3-pointers and scored 24 points in Game 3. Neal and Green combined for 51 points and San Antonio also received a superb game from forward Kawhi Leonard, who had 14 points, 12 rebounds and four steals. Leonard is averaging 11 points and 12 rebounds in the series and has excelled on the defensive end against James, frustrating the Miami star with his tenacious defense and long arms. “I’m studying my team concepts and just buying into our game plan,” Leonard said. “That’s all I’m doing – playing hard.” Leonard and power forward Tim Duncan both have grabbed 10 or more rebounds in all three games. Duncan is averaging 13.7 points and 13 rebounds.

TRENDS:

* Heat are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS loss.
* Spurs are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
* Under is 19-6 in Heat last 25 vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
* Under is 22-6 in the last 28 meetings.

BUZZER BEATERS:

1. San Antonio’s 113 points marked only the second time Miami allowed 100 or more points in 19 postseason games.

2. Heat G Mario Chalmers was scoreless in Game 3 after leading Miami with 19 points in its Game 2 win.

3. The Spurs are 26-for-52 from 3-point range over the past two games.

[StarDust Bum]

Heat at Spurs, Game 4

June 12, 2013


If Miami made any sort of statement when it evened the NBA Finals with its Game 2 victory, that statement was matched – and raised – by San Antonio in its 113-77 clubbing of Miami in Tuesday’s Game 3 at AT&T Center.

The Spurs took a 2-1 series advantage by dominating at the defensive end and making a Finals-record 16 shots from 3-point land. They took the cash as two-point home favorites, while the 190 combined points slipped ‘over’ the 188-point total.

Danny Green and Gary Neal stole the show by combining to drain 13 treys. Green scored a game-high 27 points, while Neal finished with 24. Neither player committed a turnover.

Kawhi Leonard scored 14 points, pulled down 12 rebounds, made four steals and completely stymied LeBron James with his defense. Tim Duncan added 12 points, 14 boards and a pair of blocked shots.

Tony Parker scored just six points but dished out eight assists compared to only two turnovers. Manu Ginobili finished with seven points and six assists.

James seemingly got beyond the mental hurdles in his game by winning his first ring last season. However, his critics certainly recall his failures in Cleveland, particularly that close-out game at Boston in his last game with the Cavs. They also remember his subpar play in the Finals against Dallas two years ago.

In Game 3, James was an abysmal 7-of-21 from the field. Sure, he does lots of other things (11 rebounds and five assists compared to only two turnovers), but the Best Player in the World has got to put the ball in the bucket when his team needs him in the NBA Finals.

For the series, James is now averaging 16.6 points per game, 10.2 PPG below his average for the regular season (26.8 PPG). James has only made 21-of-54 shots from the field for a 38.9 percentage. He shot at an incredible 56.5 percent clip during the regular season.

In the past, James might have deflected any criticism bound to come his way, but not so after Game 3.

Before the press even had the chance to ask about his shaky performance Tuesday night, James was his own worst critic, "If I'm better, we're better," James declared. "I'm putting everything on my chest and my shoulders. I've got to be better. I'm not doing my part.

"I can't have a performance like that and expect to win the game. I've got to do more, it's that's simple. I've got to do more.

"I've got to be able to put the ball into the basket."

Dwyane Wade had 16 points, five assists and four steals, while Chris Bosh finished with 12 points, 10 rebounds, four assists and three blocked shots.

Mike Miller made all five of his attempts from behind the line to chip in 15 points. If we go back to Game 5 of last year’s Finals against Oklahoma City, Miller has now buried 16-of-18 attempts (89%) from deep in his last four games played in the NBA Finals. Wow!

After scoring 19 points in Game 2, Mario Chalmers couldn’t buy a bucket and finished with a bagel in Game 3. Also, he committed four turnovers compared to only one assist.

If there’s a positive note for Miami going into Thursday’s Game 4, it’s that it has been downright nasty coming off a loss in these playoffs. The Heat owns a 5-0 record both SU and ATS in such spots, winning by a whopping margin of 21.6 points per game.

Most books are listing San Antonio (72-27 straight up, 51-46-2 against the spread) as a 1.5-point ‘chalk’ for Game 4. The total is 187.5.

Miami (79-22 SU, 56-45 ATS) will be in its ninth underdog situation of the year. In eight previous ‘dog spots, the Heat compiled a 6-2 record both SU and ATS.

Sportsbook.ag has updated its odds for whom will win NBA Finals MVP honors. James remains the ‘chalk’ but his number has been reduced to +110 (risk $100 to win $110). The next-shortest odds belong to Duncan (+300) and Parker (+300).

The rest of the numbers are as follows: Wade (25/1), Ginobili (40/1), Bosh (75/1) and Chalmers (100/1). The ‘field’ has +300 odds (risk $100 to win $300).

When I asked VI’s Chris David about the total from Game 3, he had a number of thoughts. David said, “Gamblers on the ‘over’ is Game 3 were very fortunate thanks to the late-game surge from the uber-excited Spurs bench.

“I’m guessing some folks were loving or hating DeJuan Blair (who scored nine points at garbage time). As far as the game went, the pace wasn’t extremely fast but the pair made shots, including a combined 24 bombs from 3-point land. I’d be surprised to see that type of production from distance again but I’m the same guy who’s been surprised by the lack of fouls and free throw attempts. Since combining for 35 attempts from the stripe in Game 1, the Heat and Spurs have taken a combined 28 and 29 the past two games, well below their averages.”

Those trips to the charity stripe, or a lack thereof, would’ve undoubtedly resulted in another ‘under’ in Game 3 if not for the wild 3-point shooting barrage.

Looking to Game 4, David said, “We should be well aware of Miami’s production off a loss (5-0 SU, 5-0 ATS) in the playoffs and the reason it has been successful is because of its offense. The Heat has scored 115, 114, 90, 99 and 103 points.

“Delving into the box scores further, Miami has averaged 24.2 free throw attempts in those wins. If you base your handicapping on current form and situations, the best play for Thursday would be ‘over’ Miami’s team total, which is hovering around 93 points.”

Tip-off for Thursday’s Game 4 is scheduled for 9:00 p.m. Eastern on ABC.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

--Parker sustained a hamstring injury in the third quarter of Game 3. He had an MRI on Wednesday, but the results were not yet known. As of 4:00 p.m. Eastern on Wednesday, he was considered 'probable' for Game 4.

--The ‘under’ is 2-1 in this series, 23-6 in the last 29 head-to-head meetings between the Spurs and Heat.

--On Popovich’s watch, San Antonio owns a 9-2 straight-up record in 11 home games in the NBA Finals.

-- VI’s Chris David gets a hat tip for this gem of a stat: LeBron James is now 2-6 (33%) in eight career road games in the NBA Finals. On the other hand, Michael Jordan finished his career with a 12-6 road record (67%) in six Finals appearances.

--Miami hasn’t lost back-to-back games since dropping a 92-90 decision at Portland on Jan. 10.

--Sportsbook.ag has released future odds for the 2014 campaign. Miami is the +250 ‘chalk,’ followed by the Thunder (6/1), Bulls (10/1), Spurs (10/1), Pacers (15/1), Rockets (20/1), Grizzlies (25/1), Knicks (25/1) and Clippers (25/1).

[StarDust Bum]

James: 'Something has to give' in Game 4

June 12, 2013


SAN ANTONIO (AP) - Game 4 of the NBA Finals will tell more about the Miami Heat than a 66-win regular season ever could.

Any questions about LeBron James and the Heat were supposed to have been answered by now. He was too good to be taken out of games, his teammates too talented to go through long stretches where they weren't contributing.

But they didn't resemble the league's reigning powerhouse in Game 3, when the San Antonio Spurs handed them the third-worst beating in finals history in a 113-77 romp. They looked like the confused club from two years ago, when the finals last came to Texas.

Another loss Thursday night and they're on the verge of something much bigger than another finals failure.

Lose this series, and the whole Big Three era might be a failure.

``Something has to give tomorrow night,'' James said Wednesday. ``They have a championship pedigree. They have four (titles). We have two. So something has to give. We'll see what happens. We've been able to bounce back throughout adverse times throughout the season throughout the years that we've been together, these three years. We'll see.''

``We'll see'' is the approach the Spurs are taking with Tony Parker, who has a mild hamstring strain. The team is calling the All-Star point guard day to day after he was hurt during Game 3 and had an MRI exam Wednesday.

``I want to wait until tomorrow before I make a decision whether he should play or not,'' Spurs coach Gregg Popovich said. ``And obviously a lot of it will have to do with Tony, and what happens to him during the day, and how I think his play will affect our team, whether good or bad.''

The Spurs didn't need much from him Tuesday, when Danny Green and Gary Neal combined for 13 of the Spurs' NBA Finals-record 16 3-pointers and Kawhi Leonard had 14 points and 12 rebounds, essentially playing James even.

James had his practice jersey hanging over his back like a cape Wednesday, and he knows the Heat need him to be Super on Thursday.

And he insists that what he's going to be.

``As dark as it was last night, can't get no darker than that, especially for me,'' he said. ``So, I guarantee I'll be better tomorrow for sure.''

He should, given that his 7-for-21 effort with no free throws was about as bad as the four-time MVP can play. But he came to Miami so he didn't have to do it all, where a partnership with Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh meant his days of having to carry teams were supposed to be over.

But with Wade battling right knee pain for a while and Bosh mired in a slump, there has rarely been the vaunted three-man attack that was expected when they joined up in July 2010.

``If us three don't lead the charge, we're not going to be NBA champions,'' Wade said. ``Our teammates count on us, so we have to step up.''

Some of the problem could be fatigue for a team that was forced into some playoff-atmosphere games in the regular season while trying to extend what became a 27-game winning streak, the second-longest in league history. With a huge lead in the standings in March, the Heat could have instead opted to give their veterans some extra rest.

That's what Popovich has always done, essentially sacrificing a couple of lengthy winning streaks in recent years by resting key players when they were still intact.

``There are no right and wrong answers to the way people do things, because it's pretty hard to assess and evaluate,'' Popovich said. ``Suffice to say, everybody has a different approach to playing time or when to sit or not sit players. And we do it one way, other teams do it differently. There's no one to say one way is right or the other way is right.''

But the Heat's way will be second-guessed - just like everything about them is - if they don't pull out this series. There will be calls to break up the Big Three, criticisms of James, and everything else that Tim Duncan and the Spurs never had to deal with in small-market San Antonio.

``I guess if you allow yourself to be affected by it and you allow yourself to look and read everything, then everyone is under a microscope,'' Duncan said. ``As I've said, I don't envy that kind of scrutiny and pressure in any way.''

It's what the Heat signed up when James arrived and guaranteed titles three summers ago, and the pressure became even greater after they flopped the first time with their loss to Dallas at the end of their first season together.

The Heat looked so vulnerable then, but seeing them as bewildered as they were Wednesday was stunning. James too often seemed to linger around the perimeter, an old habit reappearing when it seemed he'd put it aside for good and wouldn't allow himself to settle for jumpers anymore when he could go into the post instead.

Part of the reason is the Spurs, with a solid defensive game plan and a versatile defender in Leonard who can apply it. But the Heat also realized another problem was simply their own effort - or lack thereof - in going for rebounds and loose balls.

``We just collectively played a very bad basketball game last night. And that was everybody, including the staff. It was hard to really judge anything and evaluate anything from that game,'' Heat coach Erik Spoelstra said. ``That's why after the film session, all we're focused on is how we prepare the next 24 hours to have our best game of the series tomorrow night.''

Game 4 is where the Heat started to lose control of the series against Dallas two years ago, but they know it's where they have to regain it this time. They haven't lost two in a row in five months, and this isn't the time for that to end.

``We've been at our best when I guess our backs are up against the wall, and we're at it again,'' James said. ``We'll see how we respond tomorrow.''

[StarDust Bum]

NBA Finals stuck in blowouts, no drama

June 12, 2013


SAN ANTONIO (AP) - Spurs guard Tony Parker opened the NBA Finals with a memorable shot at the end of Game 1.

San Antonio's 92-88 victory gave hope that the series against the defending champion Miami Heat was going to be full of close games.

It hasn't quite worked out that way so far.

What followed Parker's sensational shot in Game 1 - a twisting, ducking, barely shot clock-beating jumper off the glass - was a 19-point Heat blowout in Game 2 and the Spurs coasting to a 113-77 win on Tuesday night to take a 2-1 series lead.

The blowouts have sent the stars on both teams to the bench early and allowed guys such as DeJuan Blair and James Jones to run out the clock.

``We both answered the losses very well. We both have not answered the wins very well,'' Tim Duncan said. ``That's one thing Pop always points out - you have to be able to bring that same energy with wins and not be satisfied with yourself.''

Heat forward Chris Bosh on Wednesday described the series as ``bipolar basketball'' with wild swings about which team seems to be in total command.

``Can the Spurs bounce back? Aw, man, is Miami serious?'' Bosh said. ``You just have to deal with it.''

Swapping lopsided wins in the Finals is hardly unprecedented. When the Spurs won the championship in 2005 against Detroit, the average margin of victory for the home team the first four games was 21 points.

Game 5 then went to overtime, and the next two games were both decided in single digits.

``It's more normal than people think,'' Manu Ginobili said. ``I still remember 2005 Finals. The first four games were basically blowouts. We won both by 20 here, they won by 20 there. It happens. It's the past, we don't care. We just have to face the next game as if it's going to be a really close one, which we expect.''

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HEAT'S DEFENSIVE ISSUES: Before the blowout loss in Game 3, the Heat had only given up more than 100 points once in their previous 18 playoff games.

So while many Wednesday pointed the finger at LeBron James for his lack of scoring, Bosh bemoaned the Heat defense that surrendered a Finals-record 16 3-pointers and let the Spurs shoot 49 percent from the floor.

``It's not offense end that's really hurting us,'' Bosh said. ``It's everything that's happening on defense right now.''

Spurs guard Danny Green has hurt the Heat, hitting 16 3-pointers this series. Miami's Dwyane Wade, who has been chiefly matched up with Green, said the Heat must do a better job of defending pick-and-rolls.

The Heat arrived in San Antonio holding offenses to an average of 87.7 points, second in the playoffs behind New York.

``We've always really prided ourselves on being a defensive-first team,'' Bosh said. ``We have to get stops. All of those things go together. In order for everyone to play well - not only LeBron - we have to play better defense, team-wise.''

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SCORING A NEW DEAL?: Aside from propelling the Spurs to a Game 3 win, Gary Neal could get a new contract after this season.

Neal made about $850,000 this season in the final leg of a three-year contract.

He said he was ``comfortable with the financial situation'' in Italy, where he played before the Spurs invited him to a summer league tryout in 2010. The long-awaited opportunity for the undrafted Towson guard interrupted Neal's honeymoon.

``I think I wanted to get back to the states to start my family,'' Neal said.

Spurs owner Peter Holt said bargain role players such as Neal help his small-market franchise steer clear of paying the NBA's luxury tax, which Holt said ``we really can't afford.''

He declined to say whether Neal's big game in a blowout might translate into bigger contract.

``We got to play a game. This is Miami,'' Holt said after the 36-point victory. ``Thursday is not going to look like this.''

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T-MAC TIPS: Tracy McGrady's legacy as a two-time NBA scoring champion and All-Star is tempered by the fact that he never led a team out of the first round of the playoffs in seven tries.

Stephen Jackson was waived by the Spurs in April. That left San Antonio needing a spare swingman for the postseason, and gave McGrady a chance to get a ring after 15 seasons. He's played 14 minutes in the Finals because of the back-to-back blowouts.

But McGrady's biggest asset might be playing the role of LeBron James in practice. His advice to the MVP: he can't do it on his own.

``On this level? One guy is not going to be the team,'' McGrady said. ``Everybody needs their supporting cast. The greatest player ever, Michael Jordan, he needed a supporting cast. ... For LeBron, he's not having those 25, 30-point games. He's playing a pretty (darn) good San Antonio Spurs team.''

[StarDust Bum]

5 things learned in Game 3 of NBA Finals

June 12, 2013


SAN ANTONIO (AP) - Five things to take away from the San Antonio Spurs' 113-77 win over the Miami Heat in Game 3 of the NBA Finals on Tuesday night:

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NBA GM'S ARE BAD: OK, that's an overstatement. Sort of, anyway. Danny Green was the 46th pick in the 2009 NBA draft. Gary Neal wasn't drafted by anyone. And they were the absolute heroes for the Spurs in Game 3, combining for 13 3-pointers and 51 points in San Antonio's rout. Want to talk ``Big Three?'' Well, forget LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh. And forget Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili as well. The Spurs' three leading scorers in Game 3 were Green (27), Neal (24) and Kawhi Leonard (14). How Green and Neal got away from so many teams will remain anyone's guess.

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LEBRON IS MAD: One has to wonder if it's time for LeBron James to go into video game mode. And one has to wonder if James even can go into his unstoppable phase against a team playing as well defensively as the Spurs. James has 50 points in three games of this series, with his shooting numbers getting progressively worse in each game - 7 for 16, then 7 for 17, then 7 for 21. ``I've got to be better,'' James said after the game. If he doesn't find a way to deliver, the Heat's reign as champions could be over in a few more days.

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PARKER'S STATUS: The three letters no one wanted to hear in Spursland came out after Game 3: MRI. San Antonio guard Tony Parker will be tested on Wednesday to determine the severity of a hamstring injury. Parker wasn't really sure how it happened and did not seem overly concerned about the injury. ``It was just weird,'' Parker said, noting that he was not in pain postgame - a good sign, perhaps, for San Antonio.

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MILLER TIME: Mike Miller's uncanny run of shooting in NBA Finals games continued. He took five shots in Game 3, all from 3-point range, and they all dropped perfectly through the net. In his last four finals games, he's 16 for 18 from 3-point range, an absolutely absurd percentage. Overall in this postseason, he's connected on 14 of 28 tries from 3-point land.

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COMING UP: Both teams will practice Wednesday, with most of the attention surely going to be on what the doctors say about Parker's leg, and what the Heat will do to try to get back on track.

[StarDust Bum]

LeBron not backing down on Game 4 vow

June 12, 2013


SAN ANTONIO (AP) - A day later, LeBron James didn't back down.

When the Miami Heat were embarrassed by 36 points in Game 3 of the NBA Finals, James took all the blame and even lauded his teammates for playing great. Shortly after that 113-77 debacle of a Spurs' victory ended Tuesday night, James insisted that he would do enough to change the way the Heat compete in Game 4.

And Wednesday, James' tune was the same.

``I'm putting all the pressure on my chest, on my shoulders to come through for our team,'' James said, virtually echoing what he had vowed the previous night. ``That's the way it is.''

That's not necessarily the same game plan that Heat coach Erik Spoelstra would prefer, but by now, it's just become assumed that when the stakes are highest, it's all going to be on James anyway, whether that's the actual reality or not. If the Heat win Game 4, odds are James will be credited as the reason why. If they lose Game 4 and go one loss away from elimination, then it'll be widely considered as James' failure.

``Look, we have great confidence from our guys and their ability to bounce back and respond in a big way,'' Spoelstra said. ``And that's all our focus is the next 24 hours - how do we prepare ourselves to play our best game of the series tomorrow night. That's the only thing that matters. LJ has proven himself enough in this league and on the biggest stage. He is going to ... he'll be better.''

When the Heat arrived Wednesday for practice in San Antonio, after a particularly difficult-to-stomach film session to recap Game 3, James had his practice jersey slung over his head, letting the piece of mesh fabric sway down his back much in the way that a cape would.

Fitting. In Game 4, he might need a hero's effort to save the Heat.

``We're not worried about LeBron,'' Heat guard Dwyane Wade said. ``He's going to find his way. He's going to get in a groove. As teammates you try to figure out a way to get him an easy basket in a breakout, try to get it back to him, get a lay-up, so he can see the ball go in. As a scorer you need to see it go in. Besides that, we're not concerned about him at all.''

Strangely, some of the Spurs sound as if they're not concerned about James either.

Danny Green has had a phenomenal start to these finals, and James' former Cleveland teammate raised a couple eyebrows after Game 3 when he said that while the Spurs were executing their plan against him as they would hope, the reigning and overall four-time NBA MVP was hurting his own cause as well.

``I'm just saying, we all know what he's capable of doing,'' Green said. ``I don't know what's going on, but he's not playing his best basketball right now. It's not just us. We're doing a decent job of making it tough for him, but I don't know what's going on. He's not playing LeBron basketball. ... It could be a number of things. It could be stuff going on behind the scenes.''

When told of Green's comments, James smiled.

``I'll be better. I'll be much better tomorrow night,'' he said.

The 36-point loss matched the largest that James has endured in his career, and his minus-32 rating was the worst of his 899 previous games. He was 7 for 21 from the field - his shooting has been subpar in every game so far in this series - and did not get to the foul line, a byproduct of both the Spurs taking driving lanes away and James shooting the jumpers than San Antonio is daring him to try.

Spoelstra said the Heat would find ways on the film to clean up some of the many issues from Game 3. Wade had a far more succinct approach.

``As players I think we figured it out in the game,'' Wade said. ``We're playing terrible. So the film session just brings it to light a little more. It's not really much we can learn from that, from the standpoint of schemes, we just have to do what we do a lot better versus the team. So film session gives you an opportunity to ... in front of your teammates, in front of your coaches, to really own it up. Own up to it, and move on.''

And there was plenty for the Heat to own in that film session.

Starters Udonis Haslem and Mario Chalmers missed all seven of their shots and did not score. The Heat were outrebounded 52-36, 19-9 on the offensive end. They gave up a Finals-record 16 3-pointers on 32 attempts, and got blown out of a game where Tony Parker, Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili were really quite ordinary.

``There ain't no explanation,'' Haslem said. ``There ain't no excuses.''

The way James was talking on Wednesday, it's all-or-nothing time for the Heat.

``It's just something we've grown over the years, being able to bounce back in adverse situations,'' James said. ``And no matter the circumstances, this is going to be probably one of the toughest, because ... we're going against a team with championship DNA and championship pedigree on the floor and a must-win. We're going to be ready for it. We're going to accept the challenge and see what happens.''

[StarDust Bum]

Heat at Spurs, Game 5

June 16, 2013


With the NBA Finals knotted at 2-2, San Antonio (72-28 straight up, 51-47-2 against the spread) will play host to Miami in Sunday’s Game 5 at AT&T Center.

Most books are listing Miami (80-32 SU, 57-45 ATS) as a 1.5-point favorite with a total of 188. The Spurs are +105 on the money line (risk $100 to won $105).

For first-half wagers, the Heat is favored by one-half point with a total of 93.5.

Miami pulled even by capturing a 109-93 win as a one-point ‘chalk’ in Thursday’s Game 4. Dwyane Wade exploded for a monster game with 32 points, six rebounds, six steals, four assists, one blocked shot and zero turnovers. Wade converted 14-of-25 shots from the field and made all four of his free-throw attempts.

LeBron James finished with a game-high 33 points, 11 rebounds, four assists, two steals, two blocked shots and only one turnover. Chris Bosh added 20 points and 13 boards, matching his highest scoring output of the postseason (Game 3 at Chicago in the East semifinals). Bosh had failed to hit his regular-season scoring average (16.6 points per game) in eight consecutive games.

Ray Allen continued to provide solid production off the bench in Game 4 with 14 points. Allen is averaging 11.0 PPG in the series, scoring 13 points or more in three of the four games.

In the losing effort, Tim Duncan scored a team-best 20 points. Tony Parker didn’t appear to be bothered by his strained hamstring, scoring 15 points and dishing out nine assists.

Gary Neal and Danny Green remained hot from 3-point land, but they didn’t get enough looks. Neal drained 3-of-4 from deep and scored 13 points, while Green made 3-of-5 treys and finished with 10 points.

Game 4 was decided by turnovers. San Antonio committed 18 and the Heat had just nine. Miami beat the Spurs 41-36 on the boards.

We talked to VI's Chris David on how to handicap Game 5.

He said, "The Heat responded in Game 4 and improved to 6-0 both SU and ATS off a loss in this year’s playoffs. If you like to play that angle as you handicap Game 5, then you have to lean San Antonio. In this year’s postseason the Spurs are 3-0 off a loss, winning by 10, 18 and 36 points, the two larger margins coming at the AT&T Center."

"Also, as good as Miami looked on Thursday, it’s hard to ignore the fact that it hasn’t won back-to-back games in the playoffs since it took four straight from Chicago in the second round. If this trend holds true for both clubs, which is certainly possible, San Antonio will win the NBA Finals in Game 7 from South Florida. Grabbing the Spurs on the adjusted series-price (+240) certainly seems tempting."

The ‘over’ has now cashed in back-to-back games. Game 4 was the highest scoring game of the series with the 202 combined points soaring above the 186-point total. The outputs for Games 1-3 were as follows: 180, 187 and 190.

CD offer up his total opinions for us as well. "The betting public and a lot of handicappers were on the ‘under’ in Game 4, which was doomed when the pair put up a 55-point first and 59-point third. It also helps when you get a combined a 48 free throws, the most taken in this series. Surprisingly San Antonio (31) almost doubled-up Miami at the charity strip, yet they lost by double digits."

"Game 5’s number is hovering around 188 points and I expect it to be real close, especially the way Miami has been alternating wins and losses the last 10 games. In the setbacks, the Heat have averaged 85.4 PPG and they haven’t scored more than 93. I liked the Heat’s team total ‘over’ in Game 4 and I’m leaning ‘under’ 95 in Game 5. Make a note that the Spurs have allowed 92, 91 and 77 points off a loss in this year’s playoffs."

For bettors who are extremely bullish on the side and/or total, there are adjusted lines available that pay better odds. For instance, if you want to back the Heat -4, you can garner a +140 return (risk $100 to win $140). You can also back Miami at -6.5 (+190) and -8.5 (+250).

For the Spurs, gamblers can support them at -2.5 (+150), -4 (+185) and -5.5 (+230). As for the total, the ‘over’ can be played at 189.5 (+115), 191.5 (+140) and 194.5 (+175). The ‘under’ can be had at 185.5 (+115), 182.5 (+155) and 180.5 (+175).

Sportsbook.ag has updated the series price with Miami returning to the ‘chalk’ role at -260. The Spurs can be had for a +210 payout (risk $100 to win $210).

The offshore website has fresh odds for whom will take Finals MVP honors. James remains the favorite at -240. The next-shortest odds belong to Parker (+300), Wade (+600), Duncan (+800), Green (10/1) and Bosh (75/1). The number for the field is 25/1.

Wade’s odds were at 25/1 before he erupted in Game 2, forcing oddsmakers to radically reduce his payout.

ABC will have the telecast at 8:00 p.m. Eastern.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

-- How healthy is Tony Parker. On Saturday he said, "`If it was the regular season, I would be resting like 10 days."

-- If you toss out the last week when San Antonio rested players and closed the regular season with three consecutive losses, the Spurs have only lost back-to-back games three times this season. Five of those six setbacks were on the road too.

-- San Antonio has never lost back-to-back home games in the NBA Finals and the 16-point margin in Game 4 was the largest ever.

-- Chris David dug up some good looks on possible Game 5 props. He explained, "Including a 33-point effort in Game 4, LeBron James has now scored 30 or more points six times in this year’s playoffs. Prop bettors should take note that James has only averaged 25.8 PPG in the very next game. If you’re looking for a bigger drop-off in production, look at D-Wade. The All-Star just scored a playoff-high (32) in Game 4. Wade’s previous high this postseason was 21 (twice). Considering he hasn’t put up 20 or more points in back-to-back games since mid-March, his performance in Game 4 certainly appears to be an aberration.

-- Sportsbook.ag has LeBron's point total listed at 27.5 (-115) for Game 5.

[StarDust Bum]

Playoff Results - NBA Finals

June 14, 2013


-- Home and Road teams are 2-2
-- Favorites are 3-1 straight up
-- Favorites are 3-1 against the spread
-- The 'Over/Under" is 2-1

Away Home Score ATS Result Total Result

Thursday June 6, 2013

San Antonio (+5, +190) Miami 92-88 Underdog Under (190)

Sunday June 9 2013

San Antonio Miami (-6) 103-84 Favorite Under (189.5)

Tuesday June 11, 2013

Miami San Antonio (-2) 113-77 Favorite Over (188)

Thursday June 13, 2013

Miami (-1.5) San Antonio 109-93 Favorite Over (186.5)

Sunday June 16, 2013
Miami San Antonio - - -

Tuesday June 18, 2013
* San Antonio Miami - - -

Thursday June 20, 2013
* San Antonio Miami - - -

[StarDust Bum]

NBA
Dunkel

Miami at San Antonio
The Spurs look to bounce back from their 109-93 loss in Game 4 and build on their 4-0 ATS record in their last 4 games following a double-digit loss at home. San Antonio is the pick (+1 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Spurs favored by 9. Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (+1 1/2). Here are all of today's picks.

SUNDAY, JUNE 16

Game 709-710: Miami at San Antonio (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 125.185; San Antonio 134.285
Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 9; 192
Vegas Line & Total: Miami by 1 1/2; 187 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (+1 1/2); Over




NBA
Long Sheet

Sunday, June 16

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MIAMI (80 - 22) at SAN ANTONIO (72 - 28) - 6/16/2013, 8:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN ANTONIO is 101-74 ATS (+19.6 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 52-34 ATS (+14.6 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) when playing with 2 days rest over the last 2 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 57-32 ATS (+21.8 Units) against Southeast division opponents since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 269-209 ATS (+39.1 Units) after a non-conference game since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 22-12 ATS (+8.8 Units) in non-conference games this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 22-9 ATS (+12.1 Units) when tied in a playoff series since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 16-4 ATS (+11.6 Units) revenging a home loss vs opponent over the last 3 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 115-80 ATS (+27.0 Units) after a loss by 10 points or more since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 59-43 ATS (+11.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 141-107 ATS (+23.3 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
MIAMI is 57-45 ATS (+7.5 Units) in all games this season.
MIAMI is 51-43 ATS (+3.7 Units) as a favorite this season.
MIAMI is 30-20 ATS (+8.0 Units) in road games this season.
MIAMI is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) on Sunday games this season.
MIAMI is 23-10 ATS (+12.0 Units) after a non-conference game this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 17-26 ATS (-11.6 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 5-4 against the spread versus SAN ANTONIO over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 6-3 straight up against SAN ANTONIO over the last 3 seasons
5 of 9 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NBA
Short Sheet

Sunday, June 16

NBA Finals, Game Five (Series Tied, 2-2)
Miami at San Antonio, 8:05 ET ABC
Miami: 11-3 Under playing with two days rest
San Antonio: 7-0 ATS off a home loss




NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Sunday, June 16

Heat's spread results in last ten games are LWLWLWLWLW; Miami is now 0-7 vs spread in game following last seven wins. Heat is 4-23 in franchise history at this site, but 2-1 this season. James has still taken only ten foul shots in first four series games, but if Wade goes for 32 again, and Heat scored 60 points in a half, this series won't go seven. Five of last seven Miami games stayed under total; seven of Spurs' last eight home games went over. Spurs are 7-2 at home in playoffs; this is a much bigger game for Spurs, their last home game of the season. If Heat loses this game, all they need to do is hold serve at home for title.




NBA

Sunday, June 16

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

8:00 PM
MIAMI vs. SAN ANTONIO
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Miami's last 14 games when playing on the road against San Antonio
Miami is 3-13 SU in its last 16 games when playing on the road against San Antonio
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of San Antonio's last 14 games when playing at home against Miami
San Antonio is 13-3 SU in its last 16 games when playing at home against Miami


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NBA

Sunday, June 16

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Heat at Spurs: What bettors need to know
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Miami Heat at San Antonio Spurs (1.5, 188)

Best-of-seven series tied 2-2.

There has been only one dramatic contest in the NBA Finals, which is now a best-of-3 series when the San Antonio Spurs host the Miami Heat in Sunday’s Game 5. The Spurs won a close game in the opener and put a 36-point drubbing on the Heat in Game 3, while Miami’s two victories have been by 19 and 16 points. Tony Parker’s hamstring is an issue for the Spurs, while the Heat crave another big effort from Dwyane Wade.

Wade rediscovered his form with a spectacular performance (32 points, six steals) in Game 4 that was easily his best of a postseason in which he has been severely hampered by a knee injury. “He’s willing to go out there and compete for his teammates and open himself up for criticism with expectations of something bigger,” Miami coach Erik Spoelstra said. “He’s giving us everything he has, and (Thursday) he was able to dig deeper and go to another place that we needed.” Parker has a strained right hamstring and revealed Saturday that it could tear at any time and that he would be sidelined for about 10 days if it were the regular season. Parker is hopeful that the two full days off between games will allow him to play better on Sunday after he gave a substandard performance in Game 4.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, ABC

ABOUT THE HEAT: Forward LeBron James had his best outing of the series with 33 points in Game 4 but his performance was just the third-most crucial behind those of Wade and center Chris Bosh. After a largely ineffective postseason, Bosh suddenly has three consecutive double-doubles and his 20 points matched his high of the postseason. He grabbed 13 rebounds and is averaging 14.3 points and 9.5 rebounds in the finals. “I don’t know really what the difference has been with Chris,” Spoelstra said. “All we know is we need it.” James was 15-of-25 from the field in Game 4 after going a combined 21-for-54 over the first three games.

ABOUT THE SPURS: Veteran guard Manu Ginobili is struggling through a woeful series. The 35-year-old Ginobili has scored seven or fewer points in each of the last three games and is averaging 7.5 points and shooting 34.5 percent from the field. “He’s having a tough playoffs, and hasn’t really found a rhythm or found his game yet,” San Antonio coach Gregg Popovich said. “I think that he’s obviously not as confident as usual, and he knows full well he hasn’t performed the way he would like and the way he’s used to.” Power forward Tim Duncan is doing his part with two 20-point scoring games and three double-digit performances and guard Danny Green is 19-for-28 from 3-point range while averaging 16.5 points.

TRENDS:

* Heat are 0-7 ATS in their last seven games following a win.
* Spurs are 4-0 ATS in their last four games following a loss.
* Over is 4-1 in Heat’s last five road games.
* Over is 5-0 in Spurs’ last five home games.

BUZZER BEATERS

1. The NBA Finals has been tied at 2-2 on 27 previous occasions with the Game 5 winner claiming the title 20 times.

2. After matching the NBA Finals record with four turnovers in Game 1, San Antonio has committed 49 over the last three games.

3. Bosh was fined $5,000 for flopping in Game 4 after being lightly bumped by Duncan.

[StarDust Bum]

Sunday, June 16

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Miami - 8:00 PM ET San Antonio +0 500 POD # 1


San Antonio - Over 187 500 POD # 2

[Kaptain]

like the calls here BUM

Sunday, June 16

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Miami - 8:00 PM ET San Antonio +0 500 POD # 1


San Antonio - Over 187 500 POD # 2

like the side and total calls..........Got SA + 1 1/2

[StarDust Bum]

Recap: Heat 104, Spurs 114

Date: June 16, 2013 8:00 PM EDT


SAN ANTONIO (AP) - Manu Ginobili ran onto the floor as fans stood and screamed.

He went to the bench, and they chanted his name.

The sights and sounds of so many San Antonio spring nights were back Sunday - and the real party might be just a few days away.

Ginobili broke out of a slump in a big way with 24 points and 10 assists in his first start of the season, and the Spurs beat the Miami Heat 114-104 to take a 3-2 lead in the NBA Finals.

Tony Parker scored 26 points, Tim Duncan had 17 points and 12 rebounds, and Ginobili had his highest-scoring game of the season as the Spurs became the first team to shoot 60 percent in a finals game in four years.

``He's such a huge part of what we do and how far we've come. You can see it tonight in how we played and the results of the game,' Duncan said. ``We're always confident in him. ... we know he has it in him. We hope he can bring it forward for one more win.'

Danny Green smashed the NBA Finals record for 3-pointers, hitting six more and scoring 24 points. Kawhi Leonard finished with 16, but the stage was set when Ginobili trotted out with Duncan, Parker and the rest of starters in what could have been the last finals home game for a trio that's meant so much to San Antonio.

One more victory and the Spurs' Big Three, not Miami's, will be the one that rules the NBA.

And a big reason was Ginobili, as he's been for so long - just not during what had been a miserable series for the former Sixth Man of the Year.

``I was angry, disappointed,' Ginobili said. ``We are playing in the NBA Finals, we were 2-2, and I felt I still wasn't really helping the team that much,' Ginobili said. ``And that was the frustrating part.'

On Sunday, it was all forgotten.

``He's obviously very popular. He's been here a long time. He's helped us have a lot of success over the years,' Spurs coach Gregg Popovich said.

LeBron James and Dwyane Wade each scored 25 points for the Heat, who host Game 6 on Tuesday night. They need a victory to force the first Game 7 in the finals since the Lakers beat the Celtics in 2010.

Miami's Big Three formed a few weeks after that game, with predictions of multiple titles to follow. Now they're a loss away from going just 1 for 3 in finals to start their partnership, while the Spurs could run their perfect record to 5 for 5.

``This is the position we're in and the most important game is Game 6,' James said. ``We can't worry about a Game 7, we have to worry about Game 6.'

Duncan won his first title in 1999, and Parker and Ginobili were with him for three championships since. They have been the perfect partnership, keeping the Spurs in the hunt virtually every year while teams like the Lakers, Mavericks and Suns have all risen and fallen in the Western Conference during that time.

They remained unbeaten in Game 5s, including two previous victories when the series was tied at 2-2. Of the 27 times the finals have been tied at 2-2, the Game 5 winner has won 20 of them.

Miami was the most recent loser, falling to Dallas in Game 5 in 2011 before being eliminated at home the next game.

``We're going to see if we're a better ballclub and if we're better prepared for this moment,' Wade said.

San Antonio shot 42 of 70, right at 60 percent. The last team to make 60 percent of its shots in the finals was Orlando, which hit 62.5 in Game 3 against the Lakers in 2009, according to STATS.

``They just absolutely outplayed us,' Heat coach Erik Spoelstra said. ``At times they were just picking one guy out at a time and going at us mano-a-mano. That's got to change.'

Ray Allen scored 21 points on the night for the Heat as he watched Green shatter his finals 3-point record. Green has 25 3s in the series. Allen made 22 3-pointers in six games in 2008 finals for Boston.

Chris Bosh scored 16 for Miami, Wade had 10 assists, and James had eight assists and six rebounds, but it was their defense that let the Heat down in this one.

The Heat were within one with 3:05 left in the third before Green hit yet another 3-pointer and Ginobili followed with the stretch that turned the game into the fourth straight blowout of the finals.

The crafty lefty plays with a flair developed on the courts of Argentina and perfected in Europe before coming to the NBA. He sees angles other players can't and takes risks few others would, but his style has been the perfect fit alongside Duncan and Parker.

He converted a three-point play, tossed in a floater with his left hand as he drifted right, and found Tiago Splitter under the hoop with a pass to make it 85-74. He flipped in another runner with 2.9 seconds to go, sending the Spurs to the fourth with an 87-75 lead as fans chanted ``Manu! Manu!' during the break between the third and fourth quarters.

Ginobili had been averaging just 7.5 points on 34.5 percent shooting in the series, making only three of his 16 3-point attempts. But Popovich made the finals' second lineup change in two games, after the Heat inserted Mike Miller to start Game 4.

Ginobili didn't make a start this season and certainly hadn't been playing like someone who belonged with the first five. But in the Spurs' biggest game of the season, they remained confident he would break out, and they were right.

``I knew that I was not scoring much and I felt it in the air. But I tried not to care about it. I know I'm critical enough of myself to be worrying about what other people say,' Ginobili said.

It was the first time he scored 24 or more points since having 34 on June 4, 2012, against Oklahoma City, according to STATS.

The AT&T Center crowd roared when Ginobili was the last starter announced, the cheers growing louder when he made a jumper - originally ruled a 3-pointer but later overturned by replay - on the first possession. He assisted on the Spurs' next three baskets, and it was 15-10 when he later hit a 3 that did count.

Parker picked it up from there, dancing his way into the lane repeatedly and scoring seven points in a 12-0 run that made it 29-17. Leonard's 3-pointer with 4.7 seconds left, on an assist from Ginobili, made it 32-19 and gave the Spurs 12 makes in 19 attempts (63 percent) in the opening 12 minutes.

Green's third straight 3-pointer made it 45-28 about 5 minutes into the second quarter, and it seemed the trend of blowouts would continue. But James suddenly got rolling during a 14-2 Miami spurt that cut it to five on his third consecutive Heat basket.

San Antonio made 21 of 34 shots (62 percent) in the first half, opening a 61-52 lead on Parker's drive with 0.4 seconds left.

Miami then ran off eight in a row to start the second half and get within one. They cut it to one again later in the period before Ginobili led the flurry that finished the Heat for good.

It was a fitting finish if it was the last home game in the finals for San Antonio's star trio, which has combined for 101 playoff victories together. Ginobili has said he might think about retirement as he turns 36 next month, and Duncan is 37.

Both coaches said it was difficult waiting two days between games - Popovich said it was ``like death' - though he did say it was great for the Spurs because they have some older players.

The break seemed to help his team early, particularly Parker, whose energy sagged in the second of Game 4 as he struggled with a strained hamstring that he said could tear at any time and would've had him sidelined during the regular season.

If things fall right for the Spurs, he'll have plenty of time to heal after Tuesday.

Notes: The last team to lose Game 5 of a 2-2 series and then win the title was the Los Angeles Lakers, when they beat Boston in 2010. ... The Spurs said Sunday that reserve guard Patty Mills had surgery to remove an abscess Friday and would miss the rest of the series. Mills had an infection in his right foot and the abscess developed between his fourth and fifth toes.

-----------------------------------------------------------

SERIES AT A GLANCE

GAME 1
Spurs at Heat
Thu, Jun 6 Final 92 to 88
Recaps

GAME 2
Spurs at Heat
Sun, Jun 9 Final 84 to 103
Recaps

GAME 3
Heat at Spurs
Tue, Jun 11 Final 77 to 113
Recaps

GAME 4
Heat at Spurs
Thu, Jun 13 Final 109 to 93
Recaps

GAME 5
Heat at Spurs
Sun, Jun 16 - Final 104 to 114
Recaps

Recaps
GAME 6
Spurs at Heat
Tue, Jun 18 - 9:00PM EDT

GAME 7
Spurs at Heat
Thu, Jun 20 - 9:00PM EDT

[StarDust Bum]

Game 6 - Spurs at Heat

June 17, 2013


The roller-coaster known as the NBA Finals continues as the Spurs look to close out the Heat for the franchise's fifth championship. San Antonio shot lights out in Game 5 on Sunday night, as the scene shifts back to South Florida on Tuesday with both teams seeking some sort of consistency in this series.

For all the stars taking center-stage in the NBA Finals, former North Carolina standout Danny Green has been the biggest difference-maker (and three-point maker) for the Spurs. Green knocked down six shots from downtown, while lifting San Antonio to a 114-104 home triumph as one-point underdogs. Following a disappointing effort in the final half of Game 4, the Spurs' offense rebounded with a combined 74 points from Green, Tony Parker, and Manu Ginobili. The former Sixth Man of the Year started for the first time in the series, scoring 24 points in Game 5, seven more than the previous three games combined.

The Heat's Big Three stepped up in Game 4 as LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, and Chris Bosh combined for 85 points. However, the three stars put up just 66 points in Game 5, including just 26 in the second half. Miami cut a 17-point first half deficit to nine by halftime, while getting within one point with three minutes left in three quarters. However, a 19-1 run by the Spurs cooled off the Heat rally, putting Miami on the brink of elimination for the fifth time since James, Wade, and Bosh joined forces in 2011.

The Spurs are sitting in an advantageous spot on Tuesday, as teams in the NBA Finals with the first opportunity to close a series are 5-2 SU/ATS the last seven seasons. The two losses occurred in the series between the Lakers and Celtics in 2008 and 2010, with each team avoiding elimination at home. Gregg Popovich's team looks to finish off another series on the road this postseason after eliminating the Lakers, Warriors, and Grizzlies away from Texas.

VegasInsider.com's Chris David breaks it down from a totals standpoint, "After watching the 'under' cash in the first two games, the 'over' has connected in the last three games of this series thanks to some great shooting, especially in Game 5. The two teams combined for 20 bombs from 3-point land and 40 made free throws. Those are two of the biggest x-factors when playing totals and they both exceeded expectations on Sunday."

David points out that the number has moved up following the three 'overs' in San Antonio, "As expected, the oddsmakers bumped up the number on Game 6 to 190 and that's already moved up to 190 ½. Off a loss in the playoffs, Miami has been great offensively. In this series, they've posted 103 and 109 after the first two setbacks. The Heat's team total is hovering around 99 1/2 points and based on the back-and-forth trend, a lean to the 'over' would be justified."

The important number many people will point to is the 6-0 SU/ATS record by the Heat in the postseason off a loss. Miami won those games by an average of 20.6 points per game, including victories by 19 and 16 points against San Antonio off a defeat. David brings up the popular Zig-Zag theory, which sides with Miami, in Game 6, "If the trend holds true, then we'll see Miami post another double-digit victory in Game 6. It's certainly hard to ignore the pattern but in this business, all good things eventually come to an end. Grabbing points with San Antonio, who is 7-2 on the road in the playoffs, is the smart play in this spot, especially against a Heat team that is 5-6 ATS at home in the postseason."

Even though the Heat has been terrific off a loss recently, the possibility of a decisive Game 7 is a rare occurrence in the Finals according to David, "I think it's pretty funny that the conspiracy theorists are expecting NBA commissioner David Stern to create a Game 7, especially in his last NBA Finals go 'round. What bettors need to realize is that Game 7's don't happen often, especially in the last round. In the last 20 seasons, we only had three Game 7's in the NBA Finals. If you are expecting a decisive battle on Thursday, then you should take the Heat on the adjusted series price (-130). If they win Tuesday, you can get out of your bet on Thursday or even try to middle the Spurs with the points."

Miami opened as a seven-point favorite, while several books have bumped the Heat to 7 ½. The game tips off at 9:00 PM EST and can be seen nationally on ABC.

[StarDust Bum]

Playoff Results - NBA Finals

June 17, 2013


-- Home teams are 3-2
-- Favorites are 3-2 straight up
-- Favorites are 3- against the spread
-- The 'Over' is 3-2

Away Home Score ATS Result Total Result


Thursday June 6, 2013

San Antonio (+5, +190) Miami 92-88 Underdog Under (190)

Sunday June 9 2013

San Antonio Miami (-6) 103-84 Favorite Under (189.5)

Tuesday June 11, 2013

Miami San Antonio (-2) 113-77 Favorite Over (188)

Thursday June 13, 2013

Miami (-1.5) San Antonio 109-93 Favorite Over (186.5)

Sunday June 16, 2013

Miami San Antonio (+1, +100) 114-104 Underdog Over (189)

Tuesday June 18, 2013
San Antonio Miami - - -

Thursday June 20, 2013
* San Antonio Miami - - -