The Bum's NBA Regular and Playoff Season's Best Bets !!

[StarDust Bum]

NBA Finals Betting Angles

June 4, 2013


With the Miami Heat and San Antonio Spurs set to meet in the 2013 NBA Finals, let’s look at four solid Championship Round betting theories outlined below from our powerful database, along with some tantalizing team trends and an incredible stat.

All results are ATS since 1991 unless noted otherwise.

Home On The Road

Life may be cozy at home, but the money can be found on the road.

Our database finds visiting teams are moneymakers in the championship round, cashing 55% of the time, going 65-54-3 ATS.

Better yet, put them in a game with the Over/Under total is 181 or higher and they improve to a 61% winning proposition, going 54-34-1 ATS.

Put these same teams on the road in games with a total of 181 or more off a SU and ATS loss and they ratchet all the way up to 22-8 ATS, or a 73% ATS spread beater.

Return To Earth

Defense rules in the championship round.

That’s confirmed by the fact that teams who score less than 90 points in a game in this round are just 31-74 SU and 33-70-2 ATS.

When teams manage to score an inordinate amount of points in any one game, they return to the earth faster than a free-falling spaceship.

That’s validated by the fact that teams who score 110 or more points in a championship round showdown are just 6-9 SU and 5-10 ATS in their next contest.

Dress these same teams up as favorites after igniting the scoreboard and they short-circuit, going 1-8 ATS.

Meaningful Revenge

Speaking of returning to earth, teams in this round that had the rug pulled out from underneath them the previous game (lost straight up as a favorite) tend to right them selves in a hurry.

That’s confirmed by a rock-solid 22-12 SU and 18-14-2 ATS mark in games after being upset, including 12-4 ATS when they take to the road off the applecart loss.

Best of all, when road teams where upset as a favorite and managed to stay within 20 or more points to the spread, they are 11-1 ATS in these payback affairs.

Zigzagging

While the famed ‘Zig-Zag’ theory has unraveled the last 10 years in the playoffs, it still works in this round… if you work it right.

To do so you want to play on a ‘dog off one loss exact in the championship round, as they are 25-17 ATS.

Teams taking 5.5 or more points in this role increase to 13-5 ATS, including 10-1 ATS if they own a win percentage of .647 or more.

Championship Round Team Trends

Both teams own NBA Championship Round pedigree.

In this round, Miami is…

-- 10-7 SU and 8-8-1 ATS since 2006.

-- 8-2 SU and 7-3 ATS in games with an Over/Under total of 189 or more points

-- 2-5 SU and 1-5-1 ATS in games with an Over/Under total of less than 189 points.

-- 0-3 SU and 0-2-1 ATS in games in which they fail to score 88 points.

-- 1-3 SU and 0-4 ATS off a win of more than 6 points.

-- 4-5 SU and 3-6 ATS versus an opponent off a win.

In this round, San Antonio is…

-- 16-6 SU and 15-7 ATS since 1999, most recently defeating the Cleveland Cavaliers (and LeBron James) in a four-game sweep in 2007.

-- 8-0 SU and ATS in games in which they score 88 or more points.

-- 7-0 ATS as a favorite of 6 or more points.

-- 4-0 SU and ATS in Game One (all as a host).

-- 9-1 SU and ATS versus an opponent off a win.

-- 7-2 SU and 8-1 ATS with two or more days of rest.

Incredible Stat

San Antonio is 16-2 SU in all games when playing with 5 or more days of rest since 2004.

There you have it. Four time tested Championship Round theories, terrific team trends and an eye-opening stat. Play accordingly and, like the eventual champions, you too shall rule.

[StarDust Bum]

Ginobili gearing up for another title run

June 4, 2013



SAN ANTONIO (AP) - The roar begins to build as soon as Gregg Popovich points over to the bench, usually midway through the first quarter.

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Manu Ginobili rises and so does the excitement level inside the AT&T Center. Of course, the anticipation is ambiguous because no one knows what the San Antonio Spurs' veteran guard will do once he gets on the court.

He could miss a wild 3-point attempt, the way he did in the second overtime against Golden State in this season's playoffs. Or he could do something big in the clutch, such as hitting a 3-pointer a short time later to win that same game.

``It's what you live with with Manu,'' Spurs forward Tim Duncan said. ``Does it amaze me? Everything he does amazes me - his good stuff, his bad stuff. It's what you learn to live with with him.

``He's someone that gives us so much of a different face. People can't plan for what he does. We're well-coached when we execute well, but you can't prepare for what Manu does, and that's one thing that makes us a better team.''

Ginobili and the Spurs are gearing up for the franchise's fifth appearance in the NBA Finals, where they will meet the defending champion Heat starting Thursday in Miami.

Not since Hall of Famer George Gervin finger-rolled his way into the hearts of San Antonio fans during an 11-year career have the Spurs had a player as popular as Ginobili. Duncan, Tony Parker, David Robinson and Sean Elliott all hold a special place in fans' hearts, but Ginobili has become one of the city's own.

``I don't know how we connected at first,'' the Argentine said. ``I just know that they kind of adopted me from the first minute I got here. Maybe it's my Latin roots, Spanish speaking, or maybe it's my type of game. I guess it was a little bit of everything.

``But it really helped me, especially early in my career. Now I'm a developed player, I've been everywhere and now I'm more used to it. But at the beginning, when I had so many doubts, I was the new guy in the NBA, the uncertainties and all that, having 18,000 people supporting me and cheering you up was a big help.''

The 6-foot-6 guard has given Spurs fans plenty to cheer about - and groan over.

He averaged 20.8 points and 5.8 rebounds during the postseason in guiding San Antonio to the 2005 NBA championship. During Game 7 of the 2006 Western Conference finals against the Dallas Mavericks, Ginobili scored 21 of his 23 points in the second half to rally the Spurs to a three-point lead with 32 seconds left. He broke their hearts seconds later by haphazardly fouling Dirk Nowitzki on a dunk, leading to a three-point play and an eventual Mavericks win in overtime.

Ginobili is averaging a respectable 11.5 points, 5.4 assists and 4.5 rebounds during this postseason, but the Spurs know there is another level to his game and they are eager to see it in the Finals.

``I still feel like Manu is saving his best for last,'' Parker said. ``I can feel a big final for him. That would be nice; we are definitely going to need it.''

Duncan agreed: ``I told him he's saving himself.''

Truthfully, Ginobili has never saved himself on the court since his earliest days playing basketball in Bahia Blanca, Argentina.

``He's just hell-bent for leather, absolutely all-out,'' Popovich said. ``He plays with a ferocity at both ends of the court that's very unique. Coaches love that stuff.''

At age 35, Ginobili no longer has the long, flowing hair that whipped violently each time he tumbled to the court - opponents would say flopped - but the fierce drives are still there in his 11th season.

``He's one of those guys, who, at age 50, won't be able to walk,'' former NBA coach Nate McMillan has said.

Ginobili already has difficulty staying upright, missing 22 games this season after missing 32 in the lockout-shortened 2012 season. After missing much of the final month of the regular season with a strained hamstring, Ginobili said he feels as healthy as he did entering training camp.

``It's great to have had this opportunity to keep playing,'' Ginobili said. ``I feel better. If we had lost in the first round, I wasn't even back. After three weeks sitting, then four games, five games and the season's over, you go back home with a really bad feeling about the season. But since the way things have turned out, to tell you the truth, I even forgot what happened during the season. I'm feeling good now. We're in the Finals, so who cares? No one is going to remember I missed 20 games during the regular season.''

While Parker and Duncan receive a lion's share of credit for the team's successful 16-year run, they know they need a healthy Ginobili to thrive.

``Manu is one of the ultimate competitors in our league, and has been for a long time,'' Popovich said. ``He has been a big factor in us winning games (and) winning championships. He's very important to what we do.''

It's not just his willingness to take a charge or fearlessness in taking a last-second shot that makes Ginobili critical to the team. He is a vocal leader and the team's resident cut-up, chastising the younger players when he isn't playfully bullying them.

Ginobli said he has no plans to retire, but he is cherishing this trip to the Finals more than his three previous appearances.

``I completely love what I do, and I think people can tell,'' Ginobili said. ``Even though I can start to see the end of the road, it's hard to really imagine being a retired player because I still really love what I do. I enjoy the locker room before a game. I even enjoy it after a loss; just the camaraderie, the stay together, going to dinner to talk about what we've done wrong.

``I feel like you've got somebody that supports you and you support somebody else. Trying to get over humps all together is great. It's a great feeling that you are probably never going to have ever again once you retire.

``Sometimes you are tired, you are older; it's harder to come back from injures, but at the same time, you enjoy what you do.''

[StarDust Bum]

Heat open as NBA Finals series, Game 1 favorites versus Spurs

The Miami Heat escaped Game 7 of the Eastern Conference finals and are now favorites to win back-to-back NBA titles, opening as -220 series chalk against the San Antonio Spurs (+190).

Miami thumped the Indiana Pacers in the deciding game of the East finals Monday, winning 99-76 as a 7-point home favorite. The Heat will have two days to prepare for San Antonio, which will be off for nine full days heading into the finals since sweeping the Memphis Grizzlies in the Western Conference finals on May 27.

Game 1 is scheduled for Thursday in Miami. Oddsmakers have opened the Heat as 5.5-point home favorites. The Heat won both meetings with the Spurs, going 1-1 ATS this season, and have taken each of the past four games versus San Antonio (1-3 ATS).




NBA teams off seven-game series struggle in Game 1 of finals

The Miami Heat and San Antonio Spurs have followed two different paths to the NBA Finals.

The defending champion Heat are coming off a grueling seven-game series with the Indiana Pacers in the Eastern Conference finals, with just two days to recover before the NBA Finals begin Thursday. The Spurs, on the other hand, will have had their feet up for nine full days since sweeping the Memphis Grizzlies in the Western Conference finals on May 27.

Miami is a -220 series favorite versus San Antonio (+190) and is a 5.5-point home favorite in Game 1.

Teams coming off an emotional Game 7 win haven’t fared that well in the NBA Finals. Since 1993, 10 teams have gone the distance in their respective conference championship and only four of those went on to win the title.

Fortunately, for Miami fans, the Heat did just that last season after going the full seven versus the Boston Celtics in the East finals. But as good as Miami was in 2012, it was unable to avoid a letdown in Game 1 of the NBA Finals, like so many other teams in this situation.

Those 10 teams coming off a full seven in the conference finals have gone just 3-7 SU and ATS in the opening game of the championship series, including the 2012 Heat who fell 105-94 as 5-point road underdogs to the Oklahoma City Thunder in Game 1 of last year’s finals.

On the other side of the series, San Antonio finds itself among the NBA’s elite by sweeping its conference championship. The Spurs are just the seventh team to win four straight heading into the NBA Finals since 1991, with four of those past six teams going on to win the title. However, in an odd twist, just two of those six teams managed to cover the spread in Game 1 of the NBA Finals.

The last time the finals featured one team off a sweep and one off a seven-game set was 2001, when the Los Angeles Lakers beat the Spurs in four games and played the Philadelphia 76ers, who edged the Milwaukee Bucks in seven contests. The Sixers stunned the Lakers 107-101 in overtime as 12-point underdogs but lost the series in five games.

[StarDust Bum]

Playoff Results - Third Round and Finals

June 4, 2013


Away Home Score ATS Result Total Result

Thursday June 6, 2013
San Antonio Miami - - -

Sunday June 9 2013
San Antonio Miami - - -

Tuesday June 11, 2013
Miami San Antonio - - -

Thursday June 13, 2013
Miami San Antonio - - -

Sunday June 16, 2013
*Miami San Antonio - - -

Tuesday June 18, 2013
* San Antonio Miami - - -

Thursday June 20, 2013
* San Antonio Miami - - -

[StarDust Bum]

NBA Finals series betting preview: Heat vs. Spurs

The NBA Playoffs are down to two teams, the defending champion Miami Heat and the veteran-heavy San Antonio Spurs. This is the third straight NBA Finals appearance for the Heat and the Spurs’ fourth trip to the finals in the last 11 seasons.

Here’s a look at how these teams stack up and their odds to win the NBA Championship heading into Game 1 Thursday.

No. 1 Miami Heat vs. No. 2 San Antonio Spurs

Season series: Miami 2-0, 1-1 ATS, 1-1 O/U
Series prices: Miami -220, San Antonio +190
Postseason record: Miami 12-4 SU, 9-7 ATS, 7-7-2 O/U, San Antonio 12-2 SU, 10-4 ATS, 7-7 O/U

Why bet the Spurs: San Antonio has been off for nine full days since sweeping Memphis in the Western Conference finals. For most teams, that layoff would disrupt momentum but the Spurs have proven mentally strong during extended breaks, going 8-1 SU and 6-3 ATS when playing on three or more days rest this season. The Spurs don’t have a true 7-footer inside like Indiana’s Roy Hibbert but they are tough in the paint, with Tim Duncan and Tiago Splitter going up against a smaller Miami frontcourt. San Antonio can quickly adapt to any pace and Gregg Popovich has had ample time to cook up a plan for slowing down LeBron & Co.

Why bet the Heat: LeBron. The reigning MVP is approaching Jordan status as the ultimate trump card when it comes to arguing which team will win. San Antonio will throw Kawhi Leonard at James, who scored 23 points on 9-of-16 shooting in his lone game vs. the Spurs this season (missed the other due to injury), but there is no stopping LeBron. Not to mention, there’s still a chip on James’ shoulder from a 2007 finals sweep to San Antonio while with the Cavs. Dwyane Wade scored 21 points in the finale with Indiana, his playoff high. If he’s awakening from his postseason slumber, the Heat could burn San Antonio when it doubles up on James.

[StarDust Bum]

NBA Finals prediction: Tough to pick against LeBron, but Spurs in 6

If you're looking for trends, evidence and head-to-head tendencies to help you formulate an opinion as to who will emerge victorious from the NBA Finals, good luck. You need to go back pretty far in the archives.

The Heat and Spurs haven't played each other at full strength -- Big Three vs. Big Three -- since March 2011, a 110-80 victory by Miami. They met only once during the lockout-shortened 2011-12 season -- another Miami blowout that did not include Dwyane Wade or Manu Ginobili.

This season's two matchups are of no use. Back in November, Spurs coach Gregg Popovich famously sent Tim Duncan, Tony Parker, Ginobili and Danny Green home from a long road trip that ended with a five-point loss in Miami. The Spurs also were without Kawhi Leonard, which is sort of important since he'll be the one guarding LeBron James when the Finals begin Thursday night at American Airlines Arena in Miami.

The Heat returned the favor in March, holding James and Wade out with injuries in a two-point victory at San Antonio -- a game in which the Spurs also didn't have Ginobili. So, in trying to figure out who has the upper hand in the Finals, I'm not looking at all at the head-to-head matchups. Tendencies and mismatches can be much better detected when looking at what each team did in the regular season against everybody else.

We have all the data and video in the world available to us, but most of it just complicates things more than they need to be. As James said after losing Game 6 to the Pacers, as well as before and after Game 7, it's only a basketball game. It's not that hard to figure out what leads to winning and losing in the playoffs.

Think about what separates two good, evenly matched teams in a given game or series: turnovers, offensive rebounding, 3-pointers and free throws. It's a slightly different spin on the "Four Factors" developed by stat guru Dean Oliver, with some subjectivity thrown in. I look for vast differences between the teams in these and related categories, ****** them and go with my gut. And in this case, my gut tells me the Spurs will win this series in six games.

First, these teams are awfully close in most or all of the key categories that separate winning from losing in the playoffs, based on numbers culled from HoopData.com:

• The Heat were first in offensive efficiency (110.3) during the regular season, while the Spurs were fourth in defensive efficiency (99.2).

• They were both top five in 3-point percentage and top 10 in frequency of 3-point shots relative to total field-goal attempts.

2013 NBA Finals
Expert picks: Two take Spurs, two take Heat

• They're virtually even in 3-point defense, with Miami holding opponents to .350 and San Antonio coming in at .353.

• Both were in the bottom five in offensive rebounding rate, and both were in the middle of the pack in turnover frequency.

• The Spurs were second in the league in terms of keeping teams off the free-throw line, whereas the Heat were eighth in the league in getting to the line.

Even my little brain can see those are too many areas where these teams are virtually equal to expect a short series.

But there are a few differences:

• Miami was fifth in the league in forcing turnovers, while the Spurs were 13th.

• The Spurs were third in keeping teams off the offensive glass, while the Heat were 23rd.

• In a related area, the Spurs have a significant advantage in defensive rebounding -- third in the league with a defensive-rebounding rate of 74.9, compared to Miami's 73.0, which was 23rd.

Miami's ability to create turnovers and take advantage of the Spurs in transition is potentially a very large swing factor in this series. To do so, the Heat can't simply rely on their defense to force misses; they're going to have to control the defensive boards better than they have all season. Remember, it was Pat Riley himself who coined the phrase, "No rebounds, no rings."

Don't fall into the trap that the Spurs want to play at a faster pace than the Heat simply because they did so during the regular season. The Spurs want a fast pace when they have the ball (which can be achieved through sustaining their identity as a sound defensive-rebounding team) and a slow pace when Miami has the ball (which can be achieved by making shots, taking care of the ball and getting second-chance baskets).

After tinkering with his rotation and searching the entire series for the right counter to the Pacers' size in the Eastern Conference finals, Erik Spoelstra will have a similar dilemma in the Finals. The Spurs present lots of problems with two 7-footers in the starting lineup, Duncan and Tiago Splitter. San Antonio's size and rebounding at both ends of the floor have great potential to create extra possessions at the offensive end while also putting a damper on the Heat's advantage in transition.

Now this is where the subjective part comes in. As much trouble as the Heat had with Roy Hibbert in the conference finals, they figure to have more trouble with Duncan and Splitter. The havoc that was created at times by George Hill in pick-and-roll situations will now be created by Parker.

When you add the fact that Wade had, at best, two impactful games in the Pacers series and Chris Bosh (who has played well against the Spurs) had, at best, one, I start leaning in the direction of the Spurs. And if I'm right that the statistical evidence across the 82-game schedule proves that these teams are very even in key areas that affect winning in the playoffs, then you should expect this to come down to a closeout situation in Game 6 and/or Game 7 in Miami. While the young Pacers weren't ready to take that step in their playoff progression, the Spurs have long since proved that they're as ready as anyone.

Another item that isn't so much subjective as fact: In James, the Heat have the best player on the floor in this series, and picking against him since he emerged from the 2011 Finals with a humiliating loss to Dallas has proven to be less than prudent.

But it's not an exact science, even though we try to make it one with all the tools we have to analyze the game. I can't guarantee that my pick of Spurs in six will be accurate, but I'm fairly confident in my assessment that this series will be close and 100 percent sure it'll be fun.

If you really want to know, that last part is the only thing I know for sure.

[StarDust Bum]

Keys to the NBA Finals: Ginobili and Wade star in the last great western


When the Miami Heat and San Antonio Spurs tipoff the 2013 NBA Finals Thursday, the game will not be wanting for star power. No matter how low the ratings are for the Spurs, no matter how much their identity lacks a compelling nature, they do have three Hall of Famers on the floor. The Heat are basically a music video, they're so jammed with flash and celebrity. But hidden beneath Tim Duncan's Greatness and LeBron James' Other-Worldliness is something of an old western saga being played out between two figures, both alike in dignity, facing the cold twilight of their careers.

Their fans and advocates will remain steadfast that they are still heroes on the floor. Their critics will continue chiseling their basketball tombstones while the heart still beats. But for Manu Ginobili and Dwyane Wade, these Finals are not just about Ginobili's fourth title vs. Wade's third, or about validation of Ginobili in the Spurs' "offensive era" vs. Wade's recruitment of the Heat's "Triad" era. It's about their final statements on the world's greatest basketball stage. It's about setting their eulogies aflame and declaring they can still ball at the highest level. And it's about what could be providing their careers a glorious Finals bookend to their incredible careers, instead of a bitter pill to swallow as they walk off that stage.

That's not to say this is the last time we'll see either one. There's certainly a chance that Ginobili could elect to walk away should San Antonio, particularly if Tim Duncan decides to go out on a high note and Gregg Popovich smartly elects to exit right behind dphim as he's always said he would. Ginobili has made noise in the past about finishing his career somewhere other than the NBA and this would provide him with a quiet way to exit on top. But winning a title usually fuels an almost addictive desire to make another run at it.

Wade, four years younger than Ginobili, is certain to return regardless of this series' outcome. The money alone, at two more seasons at the NBA max (pre-2011) CBA is reason enough. He recognizes James, train is his best ticket to future success, and Wade's injuries and wear-and -tear are more identifiable as aggravating and limiting than disheartening and debilitating. He's coming back.

But neither player can be certain or even confident that they will return to the Finals, nor that they will have this level of prominence should they make it back. Even now, their roles are diminished by age and injury.

Wade faced a cacophony of ridicule after Game 6 vs. Indiana, and the refrain has remained the same throughout this season, only quieting for stretches when he showed flashes of his former self. That nickname he has abandoned, "Flash," has actually become more accurate with time. You still see the runner-dropping, Euro-Stepping, slither-and-strike Wade, but only for moments, only for quarters, only lightning strikes in the rain. Still, those waves are vial for how they change the Heat's dynamic. Game 7 vs. Indiana showed how much better Wade's presence as a threat makes Miami. Everything opens. For as much as LeBron James makes his teammate better, Wade makes James that much better at making his teammates better. (It's very meta.) But the Heat are no longer about "Wade and James" but about "How cam Wade help James?" It's an odd and unsettling transformation for Wade, even as it is one he's tried to accept and mold to. James doesn't need Wade, but the Heat do. Unlike the Spurs, the Heat aren't built to always find another path to victory.

Ginobili has become more symbolic than essential for San Antonio on the court. Popovich told reporters before the Memphis series that they needed to get Ginobili going. But it's largely not from a a structural standpoint. It's no longer about the production Ginobili provides, it's what he means to the Spurs. In many ways, Ginobili is the Spurs, barometer. When he has a good-to-great game, the Spurs are that much more multi-dimensional, that much deeper, that much better. But in the many games where he's quiet, it's become about Danny Green and Kawhi Leonard. Of note, Ginobili's most minutes and most points came in one of the Spurs' two playoff losses this year. But when Ginobili has had more than five assists in a game, the Spurs have just five losses this season, and none in the playoffs (7-0). So Ginobili still has an impact, to be sure, but not in the way it's billed on the marquee or in TV promos.

The comparisons between the two don't end in their relative marginalized impacts, the importance of what they addd when they do produce, or how age and injuries have robbed them of prominence. Both coaches are left with the task of having to hide players they have gone to battle with constantly over the years. Ginobili's struggles have come on the ball. He's no longer able to contain penetration against top level talent, and most of his impact on that end is felt on hustle and savvy plays like drawn charges and diving for loose balls. Ginobili's never been reliant on his athleticism, but he can't be assigned to primary weapons any longer.

Ginobili can be hid a bit effectively, though, by keeping him on shooters. In lineups with Shane Battier, Ray Allen, or Mike Miller, Ginobili only needs to stay home. Situations where he's called upon to help and recover will be problematic, but no more so than any other NBA wing's challenge to anticipate, rotate, and close out. Interestingly, Ginobili's biggest challenge may come when facing Wade, and that remains a battle worth watching, as Wade's diminished speed could allow Ginobili to bother him (particularly his handle). But if that flash of Wade shows up, it'll be a big problem for Ginobili, particularly if aware goes to the post.

Wade on the other hand remains decent on-ball, even if he's not able to lock up primary weapons ( hi there, Paul George) any more. But off ball is where you see his slip. Wade gets caught ball-watching too often as his man cuts back door and Wade is unable to recover. The Spurs are likely to punish Wade off screens as well, putting that battered body through a gauntlet to free their shooters and wear Wade down at the same time.

So both teams will spend time trying to hide franchise icons, and both teams will need their occassional brilliance. Both teams can't rely on consistent greatness from two players that have defined their franchises' greatness over the past decade. But neither team can forget their importance physically and even, yes, spiritually, for their squads.

Wade has meant more to Miami than Ginobili to the Spurs, Ginobili has been part of more consistent success than Wade. But both players are the aging gunslingers watching their joints get more stiff each morning and trying to make one more ride into legend. There's just one problem.

Only one of them gets to ride home with the gold after this adventure.

[StarDust Bum]

Game 1 Betting Trends

June 5, 2013


Game 1 Betting Trends

-- The home team has gone 13-2 straight up in Game 1 of the last 15 NBA Finals

-- Nine of the 13 victories have come by double digits and 11 have come by eight points or more

-- The ‘under’ has gone 10-4-1 during this stretch

-- Miami has gone 2-1 SU in Game 1 matchups in this year’s playoffs but they’re just 1-2 against the spread

-- The Heat are 7-2 SU and 4-5 ATS at home in the playoffs

-- San Antonio is 2-1 both SU and ATS in Game 1’s this postseason but all three wins were on the road

-- In the Spurs’ first road game in each of their first three series, they’ve gone 3-0 both SU and ATS

-- Overall, San Antonio is 6-1 both SU and ATS on the road in this year’s playoffs, the lone loss coming in overtime during its second round series versus Golden State

Listed below are the past 14 openers in the NBA Finals, with total results

Game 1 of the NBA Finals (1998-2012)
Year Matchup Total

2012 Oklahoma City 105 vs. Miami 94 OVER (195.5)

2011 Miami 92 Dallas 84 UNDER (188)

2010 L.A. Lakers 102 vs. Boston 89 PUSH (191)

2009 L.A. Lakers 100 vs. Orlando 75 UNDER (205.5)

2008 Boston 98 vs. L.A. Lakers 88 UNDER (191.5)

2007 San Antonio 85 vs. Cleveland 76 UNDER (179.5)

2006 Dallas 90 vs. Miami 80 UNDER (194)

2005 San Antonio 84 vs. Detroit 69 UNDER (176)

2004 L.A. Lakers 75 vs. Detroit 87 UNDER (171)

2003 San Antonio 101 vs. New Jersey 89 OVER (187)

2002 L.A. Lakers 99 vs. New Jersey 94 OVER (191)

2001 L.A. Lakers 101 vs. Philadelphia 107 (OT) OVER (191)

2000 L.A. Lakers 104 vs. Indiana 87 UNDER (194)

1999 San Antonio 89 vs. New York 77 UNDER (172)

1998 Utah 88 vs. Chicago 85 (OT) UNDER (186)

[StarDust Bum]

NBA
Dunkel

San Antonio at Miami
The Spurs look to take advantage of a Miami team that is coming off a 99-76 win over Indiana and is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games following a SU victory of more than 10 points. San Antonio is the pick (+5 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Spurs favored by 4. Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (+5 1/2). Here are all of today's picks.

THURSDAY, JUNE 6

Game 701-702: San Antonio at Miami (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Antonio 130.197; Miami 126.114
Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 4; 192
Vegas Line & Total: Miami by 5 1/2; 188 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (+5 1/2); Over




NBA
Long Sheet

Thursday, June 6

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SAN ANTONIO (70 - 26) at MIAMI (78 - 20) - 6/6/2013, 9:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN ANTONIO is 15-24 ATS (-11.4 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game this season.
MIAMI is 55-43 ATS (+7.7 Units) in all games this season.
MIAMI is 93-78 ATS (+7.2 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 99-72 ATS (+19.8 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) against Southeast division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 23-9 ATS (+13.1 Units) after a division game over the last 2 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 20-10 ATS (+9.0 Units) in non-conference games this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 15-4 ATS (+10.6 Units) revenging a home loss vs opponent over the last 3 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 43-27 ATS (+13.3 Units) after 3 or more consecutive wins over the last 2 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 57-41 ATS (+11.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 3-2 against the spread versus SAN ANTONIO over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 4-1 straight up against SAN ANTONIO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NBA
Short Sheet

Thursday, June 6

NBA Finals, Game One (Series Tied, 0-0)
San Antonio at Miami, 9:05 ET ABC
San Antonio: 18-8 Over off BB road wins
Miami: 18-9 ATS off a home win by 10+ points




NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Thursday, June 6

San Antonio had extra week to rest/prepare for this; they've covered six of last seven road games, with 13 of last 16 games on foreign soil going under total. Spurs have four championships; they won't be in awe here. Nine of their 15 players were born outside this country, which is part of why they're a strong road team. Miami won both meetings this year, but since stars never faced each other in either game, that doesn't matter a whole lot. Heat is 4-5 as home favorite in playoffs, covering last two in this building. San Antonio is 3-0 as an underdog in the playoffs.




NBA

Thursday, June 6

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Trend Report
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9:00 PM
SAN ANTONIO vs. MIAMI
San Antonio is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Miami
San Antonio is 15-7 SU in its last 22 games when playing Miami
Miami is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing San Antonio
Miami is 7-15 SU in its last 22 games when playing San Antonio


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NBA

Thursday, June 6

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Spurs at Heat: What bettors need to know
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San Antonio Spurs at Miami Heat (-5, 188.5)

The San Antonio Spurs are well-rested and the Miami Heat are still in basketball-playing rhythm as the NBA Finals begin Thursday in South Beach. San Antonio is 12-2 in the postseason and completed a four-game sweep of the Memphis Grizzlies in the West on May 27. Miami prevailed in a grueling seven-game series in the East finals against Indiana that ended on Monday. The Heat are trying to defend their NBA title and San Antonio is seeking its first since 2007.

The series features four former NBA Finals MVPs in Miami’s LeBron James and Dwyane Wade and San Antonio’s Tim Duncan and Tony Parker. The Spurs have won four titles since 1999 with their most recent one coming against James-led Cleveland six years ago, something Duncan touched on Wednesday. “Knowing the player that he was then and the trajectory he was on, I had no doubt he would be back here,” Duncan said. “I had no doubt he would be tops in this league at some point. And I’m glad and honored to be back here playing against him.” Miami won the two regular-season games but Spurs coach Gregg Popovich held out Duncan, Parker, Manu Ginobili and Danny Green in the first meeting in Miami and the Heat returned serve by holding out James, Wade and Mario Chalmers in their visit to San Antonio.

TV: 9 p.m. ET, ESPN

ABOUT THE SPURS: The tandem of Parker and Duncan will determine whether San Antonio prevails. Parker had one of the top seasons of any point guard in the NBA and the 37-year-old Duncan has experienced a terrific season for someone of his age. Parker is averaging 23 points and 7.2 rebounds in the postseason while Duncan is averaging 17.8 points and 9.2 rebounds. Another key figure will be second-year forward Kawhi Leonard, who draws the task of guarding James. Ginobili is still capable of hitting the clutch shots despite his diminishing skills and the solid supporting cast includes Green, center Tiago Splitter and 3-point threat Matt Bonner.

ABOUT THE HEAT: James has been terrific in the postseason – averaging 26.2 points and 7.3 rebounds – and Wade (14.1 average) has struggled while being hindered by an ailing knee. James carried Miami during the Indiana series and could really use some help from center Chris Bosh. The third member of the “The Big Three” has delivered smallish production in the postseason as Bosh averaged just seven points over the final four games of the Indiana series while shooting 8-for-34. “My confidence never goes anywhere,” said Bosh, despite a postseason in which he is averaging just 12.3 points. “It never wavers. It’s always the same. I feel that I’m always capable of playing well.” Chalmers draws the assignment of slowing Parker and other strong contributors include Udonis Haslem and Chris Andersen in the frontcourt and Ray Allen and Norris Cole in the backcourt.

TRENDS:

*Spurs are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games.
*Heat are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win.
*Under is 13-3 in Spurs last 16 road games.
*Under is 20-5 in the last 25 meetings.

BUZZER BEATERS:

1. James’ lowest scoring output of the postseason is 19 points. His high is 36.

2. The Spurs are 42-8 this season when Parker scores 20 or more points, including 9-1 in the postseason.

3. Wade has reached 20 points just twice in the 15 postseason games in which he has played.

[StarDust Bum]

Thursday, June 6

Game Score Status Pick Amount

San Antonio - 9:00 PM ET Miami -4.5 500 POD # 1

Miami - Over 190 500 POD # 2

[StarDust Bum]

Heat at Spurs, Game 3

June 11, 2013

With the NBA Finals knotted at 1-1, the best-of-seven series shifts to San Antonio for Tuesday night’s Game 3 at AT&T Center.

Most books have installed San Antonio (71-27 straight up, 50-46-2 against the spread) as a two-point home favorite with a total of 187.5. The money-line price for the Spurs is -130, while the Heat is +110 on the comeback (risk $100 to win $110).

For first-half wagers, San Antonio is a one-point ‘chalk’ with a total of 93.5.

Sportsbook.ag has adjusted the series price to Miami -165, San Antonio +145.

Miami (79-21 SU, 56-44 ATS) drew even Sunday by capturing a 103-84 Game 2 win as a six-point home favorite. The 187 combined points dipped ‘under’ the 189-point total.

The Heat broke open a tight game in the second half by turning a 62-61 deficit into a 27-point lead thanks to a 33-5 run. When LeBron James buried a trey with 7:43 remaining, Gregg Popovich emptied his bench to concede defeat.

James flirted with another triple-double, finishing with 17 points, eight rebounds, seven assists, three steals and three blocked shots. Mario Chalmers scored a game-high 19 points and didn’t commit a turnover in 35-plus minutes of action.

Chris Bosh finally had a good shooting night, draining 6-of-10 shots from the field. He produced a double-double with 12 points and 10 rebounds. Ray Allen has now made 6-of-9 shots from 3-point range in the series and is averaging 13.0 points per game. Mike Miller splashed the nets with all three of his attempts from deep in Game 2.

Danny Green scored a team-high 17 points in the losing effort. The UNC product made all six of his shots, including 5-of-5 from behind the line. Tony Parker made only 5-of-14 shots en route to a 13-point effort. He had just as many assists (five) as turnovers (five).

Tim Duncan finished with nine points and 11 rebounds, struggling from the field all night by connecting on just 3-of-13 attempts. Kawhi Leonard pulled down 14 boards but had only nine points on 4-of-12 shooting from the floor.

This is Miami’s first underdog situation in these playoffs. The Heat has been an underdog seven times this year, going 6-1 both SU and ATS. They own a 5-2 record both SU and ATS in even postseason road assignments.

San Antonio has won six of its seven home games in these playoffs, compiling a 4-3 spread record.

The ‘under’ has cashed in both Games 1 and 2 and has cashed at a 23-5 clip in the last 28 head-to-head meetings between these clubs. The ‘under’ has cashed in five consecutive Miami games and has gone 9-7-1 in the postseason. Meanwhile, San Antonio has seen the ‘under’ go 9-7 in the playoffs.

VegasInsider.com's Chris David offered up his thoughts on tonight's total. He said, "Bettors watched the ‘under’ cash for the game in both Game 1 and 2, even though the ‘over’ was a winner in the first-halves. The two teams both shot the ball well in the first-half of Game 2 but the Spurs scoring drought in the second-half set up the blowout, which allowed Miami to milk the clock. San Antonio only scored 39 points in the final two quarters of Game 2 but that result was similar to Miami’s 36-point effort in the second-half of Game 1."

"Nothing has surprised me in this series so far except the officials, who have kept themselves out of trouble, which has helped bettors taking the ‘under’ in the first two games. The Heat and Spurs combined for 35 free throw attempts in Game 1 and that number dropped to 28 on Sunday. I understand that both teams like to shoot from distance but if you believe all things balance out, then we’re certainly due to see an increase of an opportunities at the charity stripe in these next three games."

Game 3 is scheduled to tip at 9:00 p.m. Eastern.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

--Sportsbook.ag is currently showing LeBron James as the -200 favorite to win Finals MVP honors. Parker has the next-shortest odds (+180), followed by Duncan (+450), Wade (20/1), Ginobili (50/1), Bosh (50/1) and Chalmers (50/1). The ‘field’ has 25/1 odds.

--Maurice Cheeks has been named the new head coach of the Detroit Pistons, replacing Lawrence Frank. This will be Cheeks’s third NBA head-coaching gig. He posted a 284-286 regular-season record for Philadelphia and Portland. He had a 5-11 record in three trips to the postseason. Cheeks was the starting point guard for the 76ers on their NBA championship team in 1983.

--Despite dealing with the unpopular mid-season trade of Rudy Gay, Lionel Hollins led Memphis to a franchise-record 56 wins and a trip to the Western Conference finals. For his efforts, Hollins was shown the door yesterday. Don't worry, though, Hollins, a key reserve guard for the 76ers in the early 1980s, won't be out of work long.

--The Atlanta Journal-Constitution reported Monday that the Hawks have hired Quin Snyder as an assistant for new head coach Mike Budenholzer.

--Also, the AJC reported Monday that former Hawks point guard Mookie Blaylock surrendered to the Jonesboro Police Department after being charged with second-degree vehicular manslaughter. Blaylock was released from an Atlanta hospital over the weekend.

--According the Associated Press, the Hawks and two other teams have been fined an undisclosed amount of money for tampering. The Hawks’ fine came after a letter to season-ticket holders mentioned the potential signings of Chris Paul and Dwight Howard.

--According to quotes from the man himself and published by USA Today, Kenny Smith has ‘been talking’ to the Sacramento Kings about their General Manager position.

[StarDust Bum]

Playoff Results - NBA Finals

June 10, 2013


-- Home and Road teams are 1-1
-- Favorites and Underdogs are 1-1 straight up
-- Favorites and Underdogs are 1-1 against the spread
-- The 'Under" is 2-0

Away Home Score ATS Result Total Result

Thursday June 6, 2013

San Antonio (+5, +190) Miami 92-88 Underdog Under (190)

Sunday June 9 2013

San Antonio Miami (-6) 103-84 Favorite Under (189.5)

Tuesday June 11, 2013
Miami San Antonio - - -

Thursday June 13, 2013
Miami San Antonio - - -

Sunday June 16, 2013
Miami San Antonio - - -

Tuesday June 18, 2013
* San Antonio Miami - - -

Thursday June 20, 2013
* San Antonio Miami - - -

[StarDust Bum]

NBA

Tuesday, June 11

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Heat's 'Big Three' 8-3 ATS in Game 3 of playoff series
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Tuesday’s Game 3 of the NBA Finals could be the most important matchup between the Miami Heat and San Antonio Spurs, if history has any say.

Since the finals switched to a 2-3-2 format in 1985, when a series is tied 1-1, the winner of Game 3 has gone on to win the NBA title in 12 of those 13 situations.

The lone exception, funny enough, is the 2011 Miami Heat, who split the first two games against the Dallas Mavericks and won Game 3 on the road before losing three in a row to the Mavs.

Miami has a solid record in Game 3 of a series since the formation of the “Big Three” – LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh. Over the past three postseasons, the Heat boast an 8-3 SU and ATS mark in the third game of a playoff series, including a 2-0 SU and ATS count in Game 3 of the finals.

Oddsmakers have Miami set as a 2-point road underdog visiting San Antonio Tuesday night, coming off a 103-84 blowout win at home in Game 2 Sunday.

The Heat are 5-2 SU and ATS on the road this postseason and have gone 15-12 SU and 15-11-1 ATS as visitors during the playoffs since 2011. San Antonio is 6-1 SU and 4-3 ATS at home this postseason and posted a 35-6 SU and 19-20-2 ATS mark as a host during the regular season

Despite being a 2-point underdog heading into a pivotal Game 3 and playing the next three games in San Antonio, books are still dealing Miami as the overall favorite to win the NBA title at -170 while the Spurs are +150.

[StarDust Bum]

NBA
Short Sheet

Tuesday, June 11

NBA Finals, Game Three (Series Tied, 1-1)
Miami at San Antonio, 9:05 ET ABC
Miami: 12-4 ATS off 3+ home games
San Antonio: 9-18 ATS off BB Unders

[StarDust Bum]

NBA
Dunkel

Miami at San Antonio
The Heat look to build on their 20-6 ATS record in their last 26 road games. Miami is the pick (+2 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the game Even. Dunkel Pick: Miami (+2 1/2). Here are all of today's picks.

TUESDAY, JUNE 11

Game 705-706: Miami at San Antonio (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 128.530; San Antonio 128.939
Dunkel Line & Total: Even; 190
Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 2 1/2; 187
Dunkel Pick: Miami (+2 1/2); Over




NBA
Long Sheet

Tuesday, June 11

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MIAMI (79 - 21) at SAN ANTONIO (71 - 27) - 6/11/2013, 9:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN ANTONIO is 100-73 ATS (+19.7 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 80-58 ATS (+16.2 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 51-33 ATS (+14.7 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 123-86 ATS (+28.4 Units) on Tuesday nights since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) against Southeast division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 268-208 ATS (+39.2 Units) after a non-conference game since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 21-11 ATS (+8.9 Units) in non-conference games this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 114-80 ATS (+26.0 Units) after a loss by 10 points or more since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 157-115 ATS (+30.5 Units) after scoring 85 points or less since 1996.
SAN ANTONIO is 58-42 ATS (+11.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
SAN ANTONIO is 140-106 ATS (+23.4 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record - 2nd half of the season since 1996.
MIAMI is 56-44 ATS (+7.6 Units) in all games this season.
MIAMI is 29-19 ATS (+8.1 Units) in road games this season.
MIAMI is 22-9 ATS (+12.1 Units) after a non-conference game this season.
MIAMI is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) after playing 3 consecutive home games this season.
SAN ANTONIO is 16-25 ATS (-11.5 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 4-3 against the spread versus SAN ANTONIO over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 5-2 straight up against SAN ANTONIO over the last 3 seasons
4 of 7 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Tuesday, June 11

Duncan is 3-16 from floor when Haslem is on floor, 8-16 when he is off; Haslem has played 33 of 96 minutes in series. Miami is 0-6 vs spread in game following its last six wins- their spread results in last eight games are LWLWLWLW, losing last two road games in Indiana series. James has taken only six foul shots in first two series games; he needs to go to basket more. Last five Miami games stayed under the total, but five of Spurs' last six home games went over. Heat won their visit here this year with James/Wade sitting out; they're 3-22 SU in 25 visits to Alamo. Spurs are 6-1 at home in playoffs, with pair of overtime wins. SA had 16 turnovers last game, after having only four in series opener.




NBA

Tuesday, June 11

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Trend Report
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9:00 PM
MIAMI vs. SAN ANTONIO
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of Miami's last 12 games when playing on the road against San Antonio
Miami is 2-12 SU in its last 14 games when playing on the road against San Antonio
The total has gone OVER in 5 of San Antonio's last 6 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 10 of San Antonio's last 12 games when playing at home against Miami


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NBA

Tuesday, June 11

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Heat at Spurs: What bettors need to know
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Miami Heat at San Antonio Spurs (-2, 187)

Best-of-seven series tied 1-1.

A second-half Game 2 demolition by Miami has created some momentum for the Heat as they start a stretch of three straight games in San Antonio with Tuesday’s Game 3 matchup against the Spurs. Miami used a ferocious 33-5 run to turn a close contest into a lopsided affair en route to a 103-84 victory that evened the series at a game apiece. San Antonio hopes to get a better effort from their veterans who struggled in Game 2.

Miami forward LeBron James has been held to a 17.5 average in the first two games and didn’t even lead the Heat in scoring on Sunday when Mario Chalmers was the most pivotal figure with 19 points. The Spurs’ trio of Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili combined for only 35 points in Game 2 after compiling 54 in San Antonio’s Game 1 victory. The Spurs now need to quickly forget the thrashing. “If you look at the result – being 1-1, it’s not bad,” Ginobili said. “But you don’t want to play like this in an NBA Finals. You don’t want to give them that much confidence and you feeling bad about yourself.”

TV: 9 p.m. ET, ABC

ABOUT THE HEAT: The performance of Miami’s supporting cast drew criticism in the playoff series against the Indiana Pacers but there has been no shortage of players stepping up against the Spurs. Veteran guard Ray Allen has scored 13 points in each of the first two games while Mike Miller and Chris Andersen each contributed nine points off the bench while joining Chalmers as game-changers. James said he feels Miami’s supporting cast has the edge despite the perception that the Spurs have a deeper list of contributors. “They’ve been making an impact all year long and they feel like their supporting cast is better,” James said. “We feel like our supporting cast is better. It’s who goes out and does it each and every night to help seal wins.”

ABOUT THE SPURS: Duncan was just 3-of-13 shooting in Game 2 after being superb in the opening game with 20 points and 14 rebounds. Parker and Ginobili also played poorly as the trio was a combined 10-for-33 from the field. “Defense has something to do with it,” San Antonio coach Gregg Popovich said. “Just missing shots has something to do with it. No matter how you slice it, it’s 10-for-33. Missing shots and not shooting it well and turning it over is a bad combination.” Spurs guard Danny Green had 17 points in Game 2 on 6-of-6 shooting – including hitting all five 3-point attempts – and is averaging 14.5 points in the series. Green is 9-for-14 from 3-point range in the two games.

TRENDS:

* Heat are 0-6 ATS in their last six games following a win.
* Under is 5-0 in Heat’s last five overall.
* Over is 5-1 in Spurs’ last six home games.

BUZZER BEATERS

1. San Antonio committed just four turnovers in the opener before slipping to 17 in Game 2.

2. Miami is 3-22 all-time in San Antonio with one of the victories occurring in the regular season despite James and Dwyane Wade not suiting up.

3. Spurs F Kawhi Leonard is averaging 12 rebounds in the series and has six double-digit games on the boards in the postseason.