The Bum's NBA Regular and Playoff Season's Best Bets !!

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NBA
Long Sheet

Saturday, May 4

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CHICAGO (48 - 40) at BROOKLYN (52 - 36) - 5/4/2013, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 38-49 ATS (-15.9 Units) in all games this season.
CHICAGO is 46-33 ATS (+9.7 Units) in road games over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 20-8 ATS (+11.2 Units) in a road game where where the total is between 180 and 184.5 points over the last 2 seasons.
BROOKLYN is 28-46 ATS (-22.6 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
BROOKLYN is 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) in home games against Central division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
BROOKLYN is 31-44 ATS (-17.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
BROOKLYN is 9-8 against the spread versus CHICAGO over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 11-6 straight up against BROOKLYN over the last 3 seasons
9 of 17 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Saturday, May 4

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Chicago - 8:00 PM ET Brooklyn -7 500 POD # 1

Brooklyn - Under 182 500 POD # 2

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Preview: Pacers (49-32) at Knicks (54-28)

Date: May 05, 2013 3:30 PM EDT


NEW YORK (AP) - Carmelo Anthony likes Eastern Conference playoff basketball, even the pounding and pain that goes with it.

The wide-open West was fun, with more scoring and less defense, and it certainly didn't hurt as much. But coming off his first series victory since leaving Denver - and his team's first in 13 years - he has adapted to the way it is on the other side.

And here comes a team that represents it as well as anyone.

The Indiana Pacers are rough and tough, but the New York Knicks say they're ready for it when the teams renew an old postseason rivalry Sunday to begin the second round.

``It's definitely going to be a challenge,' Knicks center Tyson Chandler said. ``We know we're going to be in for a battle. We've got to be prepared physically to match their play, keep them off the glass, limit them to one shot and then run.'

The Knicks wrapped up their first series victory since 2000 on Friday night by holding off the Boston Celtics in Game 6. They had just one day to rest before facing the Pacers, who were also pushed to six games before finishing off Atlanta on Friday night.

Anthony is battling a sore left shoulder, an injury originally sustained when he was whacked in a victory over the Pacers on April 14. That might have contributed to his 38 percent shooting against Boston, but he's making no excuses as he gets set to match up against another bigger forward in David West.

``I ain't dead. I'm here. I'll be ready to rock at 3:30,' Anthony said.

Back when second-round appearances were the norm in New York, the Pacers were a regular rival in the spring. The Knicks and Pacers met in three straight years from 1993-95, then again from 1998-00.

The occasional Reggie Miller outburst notwithstanding, those series were usually about low scores and hard fouls, much like this one probably will be. Anthony was used to games in the 90s and 100s in the West, but knows Indiana will prefer to keep this in the 80s or even 70s.

``They're the best 3-point shooting team in history. They made more 3s this year than any other team in NBA history. So we understand what they're capable,' Pacers coach Frank Vogel said. ``We led the league in guarding the 3 this year. We have a great deal of confidence that we can guard them if we execute our defense the way we're supposed to.'

The Pacers held the Knicks to just 37 percent shooting while splitting the four-game season series, including a 125-91 victory in February that was New York's worst loss of the season. Anthony was 4 of 17 from 3-point range and the Knicks had ugly numbers all over their roster, from Jason Kidd (3 of 20) to Iman Shumpert (4 of 15) to Pablo Prigioni (2 of 10). Amare Stoudemire shot 5 of 16 and Steve Novak was 9 of 28.

Stoudemire, still recovering from knee surgery, will practice during the lengthy break between Game 2 on Tuesday and Game 3, with the hope of returning Saturday at Indiana. Novak is still battling back spasms and is expected to sit out the opener.

As for Shumpert and Prigioni, they combined to hit seven 3-pointers in the clincher at Boston, their improved offensive games part of the reason the Knicks aren't worried about the regular-season results.

``We're a different team than when we were early in the year, too,' Knicks coach Mike Woodson said. ``I think we're a much more defined team versus when we played them early in the season.'

Neither team looked good in the first round. Anthony missed 19 straight 3-pointers before hitting a big one as the Knicks stopped the Celtics' frantic rally that cut a 26-point deficit to four in the final period of Game 6. Paul George, Indiana's All-Star, managed just four points on 2-of-10 shooting as the Pacers closed out the Hawks on Friday in Atlanta.

But the offensive side of the ball is secondary to the Pacers. Vogel said he was ``very encouraged' by the way they defended in the final two games against Atlanta after dropping Games 3 and 4.

``That's what I talked to them mostly about this morning,' he said. ``When we play our defense with the energy and passion (of) the last two games, we can be dominant on the defensive end. Not just good, but dominant. I don't think it matters who you're playing. I think you can be dominant exercising those fundamentals with the passion and energy.'

He will be willing to use multiple players on Anthony, who is out of the first round for just the second time in his career. The Knicks won just one game in his first two postseasons after former team president Donnie Walsh, who undertook the rebuilding of the Knicks from 2008-11 before returning to the Pacers' front office, made the deal to acquire the All-Star forward from Denver in February 2011.

Often the target of blame when things go wrong, Anthony was receiving praise Saturday after hitting two big shots that finally turned back the Celtics, but said he wasn't satisfied yet.

``As far as my mindset goes, I haven't did anything yet. We haven't did anything,' Anthony said. ``Yeah, we did something special by winning the first-round series against the Celtics, which was a tough series for us to win, but at the beginning of the season that was our goal. We always felt like we had a team, we put together a team to do something special.'

[StarDust Bum]

Preview: Grizzlies (56-26) at Thunder (60-22)

Date: May 05, 2013 1:00 PM EDT


OKLAHOMA CITY (AP) - The Oklahoma City Thunder and Memphis Grizzlies are ready to rumble again.

Two years after slugging it out in a Western Conference semifinal series that went the full seven games, the two rough-and-tumble rivals will square off again starting in Game 1 in Oklahoma City on Sunday.

The Thunder prevailed against Memphis in the last playoff series, which featured a triple-overtime game and another with just one overtime. There's been no love lost since then between the teams, who combined for nine technical fouls in three meetings this season.

Grizzlies star Zach Randolph and Oklahoma City enforcer Kendrick Perkins were ejected in one of the games, with a confrontation that continued off the court and into the hallway outside both teams' locker rooms.

With even more on the line, the tension should only increase.

``That's their DNA. That's what they do, and that's what we do. Guys are going to go out there pushing and shoving, and it's going to be a really physical series,' Thunder star Kevin Durant said. ``That's what both teams do. That's what we hang our hats on.'

And neither team is the type to back down.

Just look at the Randolph-Perkins showdown, back in a November game lacking the high stakes of the playoffs.

The Grizzlies had seemingly salted the game away with back-to-back buckets inside by Randolph and Marc Gasol to go up by 12 when, between a pair of Russell Westbrook free-throw attempts with 2:05 left, Perkins and Randolph started chirping at each other.

They both were ejected, kept screaming at each other and then took off toward opposite tunnels so they could continue the fracas elsewhere. Randolph confronted Perkins outside the Thunder locker room, later getting fined $25,000 by the NBA, and explained in his postgame interview: ``There's a lot of bluffing going on on the court, that's all. And I don't bluff.'

Memphis, known as the Bluff City for its river banks and not false claims, turned Randolph's comments into a team slogan - ``We Don't Bluff' - to put on billboards and rally towels.

But Randolph, who also got ejected from his last game after going toe-to-toe with the Clippers' Blake Griffin repeatedly in that series, said this next round can't be all about bluster.

``I got to keep my cool because that plays into their hands. So I'm going to go out just like they were trying to get me off my square during the (Clippers) series,' said Randolph, who averaged 24.8 points in Memphis' four straight wins. ``I just kept my head and just play.'

The Thunder wouldn't make Perkins available to reporters after their practice Saturday.

``We've got to be the team that hits first in this series,' Durant said. ``It's going to be a tough and fun series.'

The Grizzlies won two of the three regular-season meetings, with their only loss coming in Oklahoma City just after top scorer Rudy Gay had been traded away - and before Tayshaun Prince and other newly acquired players had arrived.

The only meeting since then was won by Memphis on its home floor by a single point in overtime.

Of course, much has changed even since then. Westbrook, Oklahoma City's All-Star point guard, is out for the rest of the playoffs after knee surgery. The Thunder went 2-2 without him, winning at Houston on Friday night to close out that series in six games.

``They're not just a one-man team,' Grizzlies coach Lionel Hollins said. ``They're a good team, and we have to go play and earn whatever we get in this series. I feel good about our team simply because where we're at mentally and physically. We're in good health and we've been playing pretty decent. That's why I feel pretty good about my team.

``I'm not worried about who they have or don't have. We have to go out ... and play according to our abilities.'

Memphis became the first team ever to lose the first two games of a playoff series, then win each of the next four by double figures.

``We've got to refocus our attention to another really good team,' point guard Mike Conley said. ``We have got great incentive to play. This team has handled us and knocked us out two years ago. We have great games against them. It's another one of those teams - in order to achieve the goals we want to get, we have to go through them.'

[StarDust Bum]

Thunder, Grizzlies set to square off again

May 4, 2013


OKLAHOMA CITY (AP) - The Oklahoma City Thunder and Memphis Grizzlies are ready to rumble again.

Two years after slugging it out in a Western Conference semifinal series that went the full seven games, the two rough-and-tumble rivals will square off again starting in Game 1 in Oklahoma City on Sunday.

The Thunder prevailed against Memphis in the last playoff series, which featured a triple-overtime game and another with just one overtime. There's been no love lost since then between the teams, who combined for nine technical fouls in three meetings this season.

Grizzlies star Zach Randolph and Oklahoma City enforcer Kendrick Perkins were ejected in one of the games, with a confrontation that continued off the court and into the hallway outside both teams' locker rooms.

With even more on the line, the tension should only increase.

``That's their DNA. That's what they do, and that's what we do. Guys are going to go out there pushing and shoving, and it's going to be a really physical series,'' Thunder star Kevin Durant said. ``That's what both teams do. That's what we hang our hats on.''

And neither team is the type to back down.

Just look at the Randolph-Perkins showdown, back in a November game lacking the high stakes of the playoffs.

The Grizzlies had seemingly salted the game away with back-to-back buckets inside by Randolph and Marc Gasol to go up by 12 when, between a pair of Russell Westbrook free-throw attempts with 2:05 left, Perkins and Randolph started chirping at each other.

They both were ejected, kept screaming at each other and then took off toward opposite tunnels so they could continue the fracas elsewhere. Randolph confronted Perkins outside the Thunder locker room, later getting fined $25,000 by the NBA, and explained in his postgame interview: ``There's a lot of bluffing going on on the court, that's all. And I don't bluff.''

Memphis, known as the Bluff City for its river banks and not false claims, turned Randolph's comments into a team slogan - ``We Don't Bluff'' - to put on billboards and rally towels.

But Randolph, who also got ejected from his last game after going toe-to-toe with the Clippers' Blake Griffin repeatedly in that series, said this next round can't be all about bluster.

``I got to keep my cool because that plays into their hands. So I'm going to go out just like they were trying to get me off my square during the (Clippers) series,'' said Randolph, who averaged 24.8 points in Memphis' four straight wins. ``I just kept my head and just play.''

The Thunder wouldn't make Perkins available to reporters after their practice Saturday.

``We've got to be the team that hits first in this series,'' Durant said. ``It's going to be a tough and fun series.''

The Grizzlies won two of the three regular-season meetings, with their only loss coming in Oklahoma City just after top scorer Rudy Gay had been traded away - and before Tayshaun Prince and other newly acquired players had arrived.

The only meeting since then was won by Memphis on its home floor by a single point in overtime.

Of course, much has changed even since then. Westbrook, Oklahoma City's All-Star point guard, is out for the rest of the playoffs after knee surgery. The Thunder went 2-2 without him, winning at Houston on Friday night to close out that series in six games.

``They're not just a one-man team,'' Grizzlies coach Lionel Hollins said. ``They're a good team, and we have to go play and earn whatever we get in this series. I feel good about our team simply because where we're at mentally and physically. We're in good health and we've been playing pretty decent. That's why I feel pretty good about my team.

``I'm not worried about who they have or don't have. We have to go out ... and play according to our abilities.''

Memphis became the first team ever to lose the first two games of a playoff series, then win each of the next four by double figures.

``We've got to refocus our attention to another really good team,'' point guard Mike Conley said. ``We have got great incentive to play. This team has handled us and knocked us out two years ago. We have great games against them. It's another one of those teams - in order to achieve the goals we want to get, we have to go through them.''

[StarDust Bum]

2nd Round Betting Angles

May 5, 2013


With the top seeds having flexed their muscle in the opening round of the NBA playoffs, it’s one to Round Two where a series upset or two is always in the realm of possibility.

Here are four solid moneymaking angles from my powerful database that have withstood the test of time throughout 2nd round playoff action, along with a few tempting team trends. All results are ATS and since 1991, unless noted otherwise. Enjoy.

Thou shall not lay points into a No. 1 seed

One golden rule in this round applies to top seeds, namely: never lay points against No.1 seeds.

That’s because inferior teams are just 16-27-1 ATS when playing points into No. 1 seeds since 1996. Worse, if the No. 1 seed is off a SU and ATS loss, lower seeded favorites are just 3-10 ATS.

And if the lower seeded favorite beat the top seed and covered the spread by nine or more points, they dip to 1-10 ATS.

Tripped out favorites

Teams that take it on the chin three times in a row do not fare well when laying points in Round Two.

That’s confirmed by the fact that teams laying points off three consecutive losses that are 3-13 ATS in these games.

Worse, if they dropped their last game straight up as a favorite these teams generally fall off the map and out of the playoffs, going 3-7 SU and 0-10 ATS.

Role reversals

You may not be comfortable changing roles in a relationship, but NBA teams in this round of the playoffs certainly are.

Round Two dogs (or picks) off a straight-up loss as a favorite are a 58% ATS proposition, going 32-23 ATS.

When changing roles off back-to-back SU and ATS losses, these pick-of-the-litter plays bark to the tune of 12-6 ATS, including 11-1 ATS if they own a win percentage of less than .675 on the season.

Running on empty

Home favorites that scored well below their average (77 or less points) in their previous game tend to fuel up the next game in this round.

That’s evident by a sparkling 21-9-1 ATS mark by Round Two favorites that tallied 77 or fewer points in their last game.

Put these favorites up against .625 or greater opposition and they top off at 16-3 ATS, including 13-1 when laying four or more points.

Tantalizing playoff trends

Chicago: 5-1-1 ATS 2nd round versus .696 greater opponent

Golden State: 0-3-1 ATS 2nd round off a win

Indiana: 0-5 ATS 2nd round favorite off ATS win 18 or more points

Memphis: 0-3 ATS 2nd round vs opponent off loss

Miami: 7-0 ATS 2nd round off DD loss

New York: 5-1 ATS 2nd round DD dogs

Oklahoma City: 0-5 ATS 2nd round off win 20 or more points

San Antonio: 8-1 ATS 2nd round HF’s more than 8 points

There you have it. Rock-solid betting theories you can hang your hat on throughout the 2nd round of this year’s NBA playoffs.

Use your head and play accordingly.

[StarDust Bum]

Sunday's Tip Sheet

May 5, 2013


Game 1 - Grizzlies at Thunder (ABC, 1:00 p.m. ET)

2012-13 Head to Head Meetings

Date Results Total

Nov. 4, 2012 Memphis (+5.5) 107 at Oklahoma City 97 OVER 195

Jan. 31, 2013 Oklahoma City (-9.5) 106 vs. Memphis 89 OVER 190

Mar. 20, 2013 Memphis (-1.5) 90 vs. Oklahoma City 89 UNDER 188.5

-- Oklahoma City (64-24 SU, 51-35-2 ATS) avoided becoming only the fourth team in NBA history forced to play a Game 7 after leading a series 3-0, pulling away from the Rockets in Houston, 103-94. Kevin Durant finally got sufficient help for the first time since Russell Westbrook's Game 2 meniscus tear, rewarding those who took a shot on the 1.5-point underdog.

-- After dropping the first two games at Staples Center, Memphis (60-28 SU, 52-34-2 ATS) swept the Clippers in four straight, taking advantage of Blake Griffin's high ankle sprain to dominate the last two. The Grizzlies won a Joey Crawford-dominated Game 6 by posting a 118-105 win as 6-point favorites.

-- Durant has more than pulled his share of the weight since his teammate on both the All-Star and U.S. Olympic Team went down, averaging 35.5 points per game as the Thunder's primary ball-handler. He's also averaged 9.3 rebounds and 5.8 assists in the last four games while shooting just over 50 percent. Tayshaun Prince is expected to draw the assignment on him defensively, though Tony Allen and Quincy Pondexter will also spend time trying to slow him down.

-- Zach Randolph's battered state contributed to last year's early playoff exit, but he's getting stronger as this postseason unravels. He leads Memphis with averages of 20.8 points and 8 rebounds and will be looking to improve on his regular season production against OKC. In three games, he averaged just 14.7 points on 33 percent shooting, but did manage to rebound at a clip of 16 per game. He'll be dealing with starters Serge Ibaka and Kendrick Perkins, as well as Nick Collison.

-- The Grizzlies won the season series by a 2-to-1 count, taking the most recent meeting in overtime, 90-89, on March 20. That's the only game this season that featured Prince instead of Rudy Gay, who was dealt before the trade deadline. Their only loss came just after making that trade, playing short-handed while waiting for Prince, Ed Davis and Austin Daye to pass physicals. Pondexter also missed that contest with a sprained knee ligament.

-- Oklahoma City shot a season-low 35.7 percent from the field in its most recent loss at Memphis, going just 2-for-18 from 3-point range.

-- The first meeting between the teams featured the ejection of both Randolph and Perkins, who nearly came to blows with 2:05 remaining after tangling all game.

-- Not surprisingly, the teams aren't big fans of one another. Last year's conference semifinal meeting saw the Thunder advance past Memphis in seven games and featured a memorable triple-overtime game tied with many as the second-longest in NBA playoff history. Brooklyn and Chicago most recently went three OTs in Game 4 of their first-round series.

-- Memphis won the rebounding battle against OKC by a slight margin, but really imposed its will on the offensive boards, holding a 17.3-9.3 edge. That helped contribute to out-shooting the Thunder by over 17 field goal attempts per game in spite of their preferred slower pace.

-- The Grizzlies led the NBA in points allowed (89.3), allowing shooting percentages of 43.5 from the field and 33.8 from 3-point range. Oklahoma City ranked third in scoring (105.7), field goal percentage (48.1) and 3-point percentage (37.7). The Thunder allowed opponents to shoot just 42.5 from the field, second-best in the league.

-- Despite averaging more points (93.4) than only three other NBA teams during the regular season, Memphis averaged just over 100 per game against the Clippers. The 118 points scored in closing out L.A. on Friday night was the highest-scoring output of the season.
-- Most spots had the Thunder listed as 3-point home favorites with the total at 186.5. Gamblers can take the Grizzlies to win outright and immediately steal homecourt advantage for a +135 return (risk $100 to win $135).

-- Oklahoma City is 36-8 SU and 28-16 ATS at home this year.

-- Memphis is 25-19 SU on the road, covering the majority of the time (26-17-1 ATS).

-- The ‘under’ is 46-40-2 overall for the Thunder, but the
‘over’ is 22-21-1 at home.

-- The ‘under’ is 51-36-1 overall for Memphis, going 24-19-1 on the road.

-- The updated series odds from Sportsbook.ag: Grizzlies -130, Thunder +110.

Game 1 - Pacers at Knicks (ABC, 3:30 p.m. ET)

2012-13 Head to Head Meetings

Date Results Total

Nov. 18, 2012 New York (-7) 88 vs. Indiana 76 UNDER 186.5

Jan. 10, 2013 Indiana (-5.5) 81 vs. New York 76 UNDER 184

Feb. 20, 2013 Indiana (-4) 125 vs. New York 91 OVER 185

Apr. 14, 2013 New York (-3) 90 vs. Indiana 80 UNDER 193.5

-- New York (58-30 SU, 49-37-2 ATS) joined OKC in avoiding a Game 7 after enjoying a 3-0 lead, surviving a 20-0 fourth-quarter run from the Celtics to escape Boston with an 88-80 result and 4-2 series win. Carmelo Anthony's 21 points were his lowest output in these playoffs, but he still led New York in scoring for the sixth straight playoff game. The Knicks covered in their last three victories over the Celtics after a bad beat in Game 1, winning by seven when laying 7.5.

-- After dropping the first two games at Philips Arena, Indiana (53-34 SU, 46-41 ATS) tasted a road victory for the first time this postseason to end its series against the Hawks. The Pacers surged out to a 65-50 lead by winning the first three quarters, but had to make key plays in the final 2:13 after Atlanta closed within 76-73. David West and George Hill each scored 21 points to make up for a rough outing from All-Star Paul George.

-- Because they were already on the road, the Pacers departed for New York straight from Atlanta, catching some sleep before practicing and beginning preparations for the Knicks on Saturday.

-- Anthony got tangled up with Kevin Garnett in Game 6 and reported that his arm was popping "in and out" of his left shoulder. He'll play, but he was already having problems with it prior to further hurting himself. After picking up where he left off in earning April Player of the Month honors for his regular season work, Melo's last three games left much to be desired. Entering Game 1, he's shot 25-for-82 (30.5 pct) and made only one of 18 3-point attempts over the last three games. It will be up to George, Lance Stephenson and Gerald Green to keep him from getting back in a groove.

-- If you want to simplify it, one could argue that George's first two games helped secure the 2-0 lead over Atlanta, but it was David West who put the series away. Indiana's leader and most experienced playoff performer averaged 17 points over the last four games, going for 24 and 21 to close out a 2-2 series. He'll have advantages over both Anthony and Iman Shumpert in the post, which means the Knicks may play big down the stretch in order to utilize top post defender Kenyon Martin.

-- What about Amar'e Stoudemire, you ask? He's expected to miss the New York portion of the series, but since there is a lengthy layoff before things resume in Indianapolis on Saturday, there's a chance he'll be back in the mix at that point. Head coach Mike Woodson has continuously said he plans to use him when he's ready. The only other injury question for Game 1 involves Steve Novak (back), who is unlikely to participate.

-- These teams split the season series, but only played once in the last two months. In a 90-80 win on April 14, the Knicks wrapped up the No. 2 seed that gave them the homecourt edge for this potential showdown. Anthony, despite hurting that left shoulder still troubling him, scored 25 points against the same lineup he'll be seeing in this Game 1. The Pacers have actually used the same starting five in every meeting with New York. Each squad defended their homecourt twice.

-- Anthony played in only three of the four games against Indiana, shooting just 38 percent and averaging 22 points, 6.7 shy of his NBA-leading scoring average. He missed a Jan. 10 loss in Indianapolis due to suspension after a memorable post-game confrontation with Kevin Garnett.

-- George leads the Pacers with 18.7 points, 9.5 rebounds, 5.0 assists and 1.8 steals thus far in the playoffs, continuing a breakout campaign that landed him in the All-Star game in addition to NBA Most Improved honors. All those postseason numbers are better than his regular season ones thus far. Against New York, he averaged 20.0, 7.3, 5.5, and 2.5 in those categories.

-- We won't have Spike Lee yelling at Reggie Miller here, but there's no question that a rivalry lingers between franchises that haven't had much success since last facing off in epic duels when Miller and iconic figures like Mark Jackson and Patrick Ewing performed. Pacers President Donnie Walsh put together all those Indiana teams, much of this Knicks team and is back on the other side after accepting the same role he held in New York when Larry Bird stepped down.

-- Miller will be on the call of Game 2, working for TNT.

-- Indiana led the NBA in rebounding (45.8), field goal percentage defense (42.0) and 3-point percentage defense (32.7). They ranked second in points allowed per game (90.7). New York averaged 100.0 points per game (11th) and ranked seventh in points allowed (95.7).

-- The Knicks averaged just 91.8 points per 100 possessions against Indiana during the regular season, their lowest offensive efficiency against any opponent. The Pacers closed out well against a New York attack ranked fourth in 3-point percentage (37.6), forcing them to shoot 28-for-105 in the four contests.

-- Sportsbook.ag lists New York as a 5.5-point home favorites with the total at 183. Gamblers can take the Pacers to pull the upset at Madison Square Garden for a +190 return (risk $100 to win $190).

-- New York is 33-11 SU and 27-17 ATS at home this year.

-- Indiana is 20-22 SU on the road and similarly 21-22 ATS.

-- The ‘under’ is 46-40-2 overall for the Knicks, including 24-20 at home. Five of the six playoff games have gone under, as did three of the last four regular season games.

-- The ‘under’ is 44-42-1 overall for the Pacers, going 24-19 on the road.

-- The updated series odds from Sportsbook.ag: Knicks -200, Pacers
+170.

[StarDust Bum]

NBA
Dunkel

Memphis at Oklahoma City
The Thunder look to open up the series and build on their 7-2 ATS record in their last 9 home games against against a team with a winning road record. Oklahoma City is the pick (-3) according to Dunkel, which has the Thunder favored by 8 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma City (-3). Here are all of today's picks.

SUNDAY, MAY 5

Game 705-706: Indiana at New York (3:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana 113.902; New York 127.172
Dunkel Line & Total: New York by 13 1/2; 187
Vegas Line & Total: New York by 5 1/2; 183
Dunkel Pick: New York (-5 1/2); Over

Game 707-708: Memphis at Oklahoma City (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Memphis 121.293; Oklahoma City 130.035
Dunkel Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 8 1/2; 183
Vegas Line & Total: Oklahoma City by 3; 186 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Oklahoma City (-3); Under




NBA
Long Sheet

Sunday, May 5

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INDIANA (53 - 34) at NEW YORK (58 - 30) - 5/5/2013, 3:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
INDIANA is 12-23 ATS (-13.3 Units) against Atlantic division opponents over the last 2 seasons.
INDIANA is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
NEW YORK is 50-37 ATS (+9.3 Units) in all games this season.
NEW YORK is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points over the last 3 seasons.
NEW YORK is 47-31 ATS (+12.9 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW YORK is 24-12 ATS (+10.8 Units) against Central division opponents over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW YORK is 6-5 against the spread versus INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
NEW YORK is 6-5 straight up against INDIANA over the last 3 seasons
7 of 11 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MEMPHIS (60 - 28) at OKLAHOMA CITY (64 - 24) - 5/5/2013, 1:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 51-35 ATS (+12.5 Units) in all games this season.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 48-32 ATS (+12.8 Units) as a favorite this season.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 28-16 ATS (+10.4 Units) in home games this season.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) on Sunday games over the last 2 seasons.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 18-8 ATS (+9.2 Units) revenging a loss vs opponent this season.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 27-18 ATS (+7.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
OKLAHOMA CITY is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=91 points/game over the last 2 seasons.
MEMPHIS is 52-33 ATS (+15.7 Units) in all games this season.
MEMPHIS is 54-36 ATS (+14.4 Units) as an underdog over the last 3 seasons.
MEMPHIS is 26-17 ATS (+7.3 Units) in road games this season.
MEMPHIS is 20-9 ATS (+10.1 Units) after a win by 10 points or more this season.
MEMPHIS is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) after 3 or more consecutive wins this season.
MEMPHIS is 28-16 ATS (+10.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
MEMPHIS is 23-12 ATS (+9.8 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game this season.
MEMPHIS is 39-21 ATS (+15.9 Units) versus good offensive teams - scoring 99+ points/game - 2nd half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MEMPHIS is 10-8 against the spread versus OKLAHOMA CITY over the last 3 seasons
OKLAHOMA CITY is 9-9 straight up against MEMPHIS over the last 3 seasons
13 of 18 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NBA
Short Sheet

Sunday, May 5

Conference Semifinals, Game One (Series Tied, 0-0
Memphis at Oklahoma City, 1:05 ET ABC
Memphis: 8-1 ATS off BB games scoring 100+ points
Oklahoma City: 5-1 Under in playoff games Conference

Semifinals, Game One (Series Tied, 0-0
Indiana at New York, 3:35 ET ABC
Indiana: 6-16 ATS away off an Under
New York: 16-5 ATS at home off a road win




NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Sunday, May 5

Memphis won last four games of Clipper series, all by 10+ points, with five of those six games going over total; they beat Oklahoma City two of three this year, winning by 10 here in November, losing by 17 (58-34 at half) Jan 31, then winning 90-89 in OT March 20, in OC's only visit to Memphis. Westbrook shot 13-44 from floor in two Memphis wins, 9 of 17 in Thunder's win, but no Westbrook (knee) in this series. Grizzlies are 3-1-1 against the spread in last five games as an underdog. 16 of last 20 Thunder games stayed under the total.

Indiana/New York both won on road Friday to advance here; home side won all four series games this year- Knicks won by 12-10 here, with JR Smith 12-21 from floor in those games (he was 11-36 in two losses, one in which Anthony DNP). Eight of last ten Knick games stayed under the total; 10 of last 14 Indiana games went over. Pacers lost four of last five road games, with all four losses by 10+ points. NY is 9-3 vs spread last 12 games as a home favorite, winning 12 of last 13 at home SU. Carmelo Anthony was 25-67 (37.3%) from floor in three games vs Indiana.




NBA

Sunday, May 5

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Trend Report
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1:00 PM
MEMPHIS vs. OKLAHOMA CITY
Memphis is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Memphis's last 5 games on the road
Oklahoma City is 20-5 SU in its last 25 games at home
Oklahoma City is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games at home

3:30 PM
INDIANA vs. NEW YORK
Indiana is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against New York
Indiana is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against New York
New York is 20-4 SU in its last 24 games
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of New York's last 7 games


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NBA

Sunday, May 5

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NBA Western Conference playoff preview: Round 2
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Everything didn’t go according to plan in the first round of the NBA Western Conference playoffs. While the top two seeds advanced, the No. 5 and No. 6 clubs shocked their way into the conference semifinals.

Here’s a look at the matchups and series odds for the second round of the Western playoffs.

No. 1 Oklahoma City Thunder vs. No. 5 Memphis Grizzlies

Season series: Memphis won 2-1, 1-2 ATS, 2-1 O/U
Series prices: Memphis -135, OKC +115

Why bet the Thunder: Oklahoma City got a wakeup call versus Houston and will be much more apt to close out teams on the ropes. Kevin Durant is more than capable of carrying the team and Kevin Martin has stepped up with Russell Westbrook out of action.

Why bet the Grizzlies: Memphis got some help from the injury bug versus the Clippers and now collides with an OKC team missing its second-best player. The Grizzlies defense was able to put the breaks on L.A.’s fastbreak and will plug up the lane with Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph. Memphis covered in all but Game 1 versus the Clippers and were the fourth-best bet in the league during the regular season.

No. 2 San Antonio Spurs vs. No. 6 Golden State Warriors

Season series: Split 2-2, Golden State 3-1 ATS, 1-3 O/U
Series prices: San Antonio -850, Golden State +650

Why bet the Spurs: San Antonio is well rested having rolled the Lakers in the first round. The Spurs were relentless in that series, averaging 104 points per game and limiting L.A. to just over 85 points. Tim Duncan’s legs looked spry versus the Lakers frontcourt and Gregg Popovich trumps Mark Jackson in postseason experience.

Why bet the Warriors: Golden State hasn’t won at San Antonio since Stephen Curry was nine years old but the Warriors did manage to steal a win in Denver, one of the toughest venues in the NBA. Golden State has the scoring to stay in any game and Andrew Bogut and David Lee are a handful around the hoop. The Warriors covered in all six games versus the Nuggets and bring a nine-game ATS winning streak into Round 2.


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NBA

Sunday, May 5

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Sunday's NBA playoff action: What bettors need to know
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Memphis Grizzlies vs. Oklahoma City Thunder (-3, 186.5)

The rematch of the 2011 Western Conference semifinals figures to be intense and physical as the 2013 version of that series begins Sunday in Oklahoma City when the top-seeded Thunder meet the fifth-seeded Memphis Grizzlies. Oklahoma City prevailed in seven games two years ago when Memphis was making an unexpected dash as a No. 8 seed. Now the Grizzlies think they can defeat a Thunder squad that will be without matchup headache Russell Westbrook due to a knee injury.

Memphis won two of the three regular-season meetings, including a dramatic 90-89 overtime win on March 20 when Marc Gasol tipped in the winner with less than a second remaining. A testy mid-November Grizzlies’ win in Oklahoma City included a confrontation between Memphis star Zach Randolph and Oklahoma City enforcer Kendrick Perkins that carried over into the hallway that leads to the locker rooms after their ejections. Oklahoma City was pushed to six games by the Houston Rockets in winning its first-round series. Forward Kevin Durant averaged 32.5 points in the series. The Grizzlies ousted the Los Angeles Clippers in the opening round, spotting the Clippers a 2-0 lead before claiming the next four games to advance.

TV: 1 p.m. ET, ABC

ABOUT THE GRIZZLIES: Randolph finished the Clippers series with a flourish by averaging 24.8 points over the four straight victories. He engaged in physical play with Los Angeles forward Blake Griffin and is prepared for upcoming issues with Perkins and Oklahoma City forward Serge Ibaka. “I’ve got to keep my cool because that plays into their hands,” Randolph told reporters on Saturday. “So I’m going to go out just like they were trying to get me off my square during the (Los Angeles) series.” Randolph shot just 33.3 percent from the field in the three regular-season meetings while averaging 14.7 points and 16 rebounds. Gasol averaged 14.7 points and 9.3 boards against the Thunder.

ABOUT THE THUNDER: Oklahoma City is still feeling its way over the best way to operate without Westbrook. The Thunder went 2-2 after losing him for the postseason and Durant averaged 35.5 points over those four games. Durant picked up some of the ball-handling duties and veteran backup Derek Fisher received increased minutes and went 9-of-15 from 3-point range over the last three games. Reggie Jackson was the primary point guard and averaged 14 points against the Rockets but only dished out an average of 3.7 assists. Backup guard Kevin Martin starred in the closeout win against the Rockets with 25 points after struggling most of the series. Oklahoma City needs consistent production from Martin to take the pressure off Durant.

TRENDS:

* Grizzlies are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
* Thunder are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games.
* Under is 12-3-1 in Thunder last 16 home games.
* Road team is 6-1 ATS in the last 7 meetings.

BUZZER BEATERS:

1. Memphis became the first team in NBA history to drop the first two games of a series and then win the next four by double digits.

2. Durant averaged 31 points and 8.3 rebounds in three regular-season games against Memphis.

3. Defensive-minded Grizzlies G Tony Allen averaged 12 points in the series against Los Angeles.


Indiana Pacers vs. New York Knicks (-5.5, 183)

The New York Knicks held off one strong defensive team to advance past the first round of the Eastern Conference playoffs for the first time since 2000. The Knicks will face another rugged defensive team when they host the Indiana Pacers in Game 1 of the conference semifinals on Sunday. The Boston Celtics, who fell to New York in six games, did not feature the size that Indiana will bring with Roy Hibbert, David West and Paul George.

Carmelo Anthony snapped out of a shooting funk at precisely the right moment on Friday, ending a string of 19 straight misses from 3-point range with a dagger in the final minutes that staved off a late Boston surge. Anthony took on a host of different defenders in the Celtics' series and will likely be matched up against George or West against the Pacers. West could see time against Anthony if the Knicks elect to stick with a smaller lineup. Indiana split four games with New York in the regular season but lost in both of its trips to Madison Square Garden.

TV: 3:30 p.m. ET, ABC

ABOUT THE PACERS: Indiana snapped a 13-game losing streak in Atlanta in Game 6 and brought out its good defense for the final two games of the series. After allowing the Hawks to shoot 44 percent or better in the first four games, the Pacers stifled them in the final two. That included a first half in which Indiana held Atlanta to 29 points on Friday. The Pacers have plenty of options offensively and leaned on George for most of the series with the Hawks. The All-Star forward struggled in Game 6 but West and George Hill were there to pick up the slack with 21 points apiece. Indiana enjoyed a huge advantage on the glass against Atlanta, outrebounding the Hawks 104-63 in the final two games of the series, but could be forced further out of the paint against a New York team that likes to shoot 3-pointers.

ABOUT THE KNICKS: Anthony had a brutal series shooting the ball against the Celtics but came through with two big buckets down the stretch in Game 6. Anthony shot 30.5 percent from the field, including 1-for-18 from 3-point range, over the final three games of the series and told reporters that he felt his left arm popping “in and out” of his shoulder in the fourth quarter of Game 6. The star forward will play in Game 1 but New York could choose to use a bigger lineup in part to keep that shoulder away from West in the paint. A bigger unit would mean playing Kenyon Martin alongside Tyson Chandler, who finally declared himself 100 percent healthy in Game 6. The Knicks also have Amar'e Stoudemire (knee) trying to work his way back, though his return at any point in the series is uncertain. New York held the Celtics to an average of 82.3 points in round 1.

TRENDS:

* Pacers are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 road games.
* Knicks are 17-6 ATS in their last 23 vs. Eastern Conference.
* Under is 5-0 in Knicks last 5 home games.
* Favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last 5 meetings.

BUZZER BEATERS:

1. Knicks G J.R. Smith went 8-for-27 from the floor in the final two games against Boston.

2. Hibbert recorded only one double-double in the first round - a 17-point, 11-rebound effort in Game 6.

3. New York outscored the Celtics by 56 points while Chandler was in the game during the first-round series.

[StarDust Bum]

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

05/04/13 0-*2-*0 0.00% -*1100 Detail
05/03/13 5-*3-*0 62.50% +*850 Detail
05/02/13 2-*2-*0 50.00% -*100 Detail
05/01/13 4-*2-*0 66.67% +*900 Detail

Totals 11-*9-*0 55.00% +550

Sunday, May 5

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Memphis - 1:00 PM ET Memphis +3 500 POD # 1

Oklahoma City - Under 186.5 500


Indiana - 3:30 PM ET New York -5.5 500 POD # 2

New York - Under 183 500

[StarDust Bum]

NBA
Dunkel

Chicago at Miami
The Heat look to open the series and take advantage of a Chicago team that is coming off a 99-93 win over New Jersey and is just 1-8 ATS in its last 9 games following a SU victory. Miami is the pick (-11 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Heat favored by 13. Dunkel Pick: Miami (-11 1/2). Here are all of today's picks.

MONDAY, MAY 6

Game 701-702: Golden State at San Antonio (9:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Golden State 120.303; San Antonio 130.755
Dunkel Line & Total: San Antonio by 10 1/2; 197
Vegas Line & Total: San Antonio by 8 1/2; 201 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Antonio (-8 1/2); Under

Game 703-704: Chicago at Miami (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 115.485; Miami 128.617
Dunkel Line & Total: Miami by 13; 190
Vegas Line & Total: Miami by 11 1/2; 186
Dunkel Pick: Miami (-11 1/2); Over




NBA
Armadillo's Write-Up

Monday, May 6

Gritty, banged-up Bulls head south after winning Game 7 in Brooklyn 48 hours ago; they get Deng back here, but he spent several days laid up in hospital, so not sure how effective he'll be. Teams split four meetings this year, going 1-1 in each building; Heat shot 50.7/51.4% in two games they won, 46.2/48.1% in two losses. Miami won its last 12 games since home loss to New York April 12; they're 5-2 vs spread last seven games they were home favorite. Over is 9-4 in Chicago's last thirteen games.

Golden State won six of its last eight games, covered last nine, including last four as road underdogs; Warriors split four meetings vs San Antonio in regular season, with home side winning all four games, Spurs winning by 7-11 points here. SA hasn't played in eight days since sweeping LA, with all four wins by 11+ points. Warriors finished off Denver at home Thursday, so they've had decent rest time. Three of Golden State's wins in first round went over total; both its losses stayed under.




NBA

Monday, May 6

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Trend Report
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7:00 PM
CHICAGO vs. MIAMI
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Chicago's last 6 games when playing Miami
Chicago is 4-8 SU in its last 12 games when playing Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami's last 6 games when playing Chicago
Miami is 8-4 SU in its last 12 games when playing Chicago

9:30 PM
GOLDEN STATE vs. SAN ANTONIO
Golden State is 2-17 SU in its last 19 games when playing San Antonio
Golden State is 6-13 SU in its last 19 games on the road
San Antonio is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Golden State
San Antonio is 10-4-1 ATS in its last 15 games when playing Golden State


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NBA

Monday, May 6

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Monday's NBA playoff action: What bettors need to know
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Chicago Bulls vs. Miami Heat (-11.5, 186)
Game 1

LeBron James was named Most Valuable Player on Sunday and the Miami Heat get back to playing basketball on Monday when they open the Eastern Conference semifinals against the visiting Chicago Bulls. Miami hasn’t played since finishing a four-game, first-round sweep of the Milwaukee Bucks on April 28. Chicago completed its seven-game series win over the Brooklyn Nets on Saturday. The Bulls will likely be without forward Luol Deng (illness) while point guard Kirk Hinrich is a game-time decision.

Chicago used a gritty Game 7 effort against Brooklyn to reach the conference semifinals with center Joakim Noah leading the way with 24 points, 14 rebounds and six blocked shots. The Bulls are thriving without guard Derrick Rose, who mysteriously continues to sit out with a knee injury nearly two months after he was medically cleared to play. James had a superb campaign in winning his fourth MVP award. The Miami forward averaged 26.8 points, eight rebounds and 7.3 assists while helping the Heat to a league-best 66-16 mark. The only other players to win four or more MVPs are Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (six), Michael Jordan (five), Bill Russell (five) and Wilt Chamberlain (four).

TV: 7 p.m. ET, TNT

ABOUT THE BULLS: Deng missed the final two games of the Brooklyn series after a spinal tap caused serious complications. The spinal tap was performed to see if Deng had contracted meningitis – results were negative – but the procedure caused severe headaches and other issues that required Deng to be hospitalized. His return date remains uncertain. Hinrich (calf) missed the final three games of the series against the Nets and Nate Robinson will again be in the starting lineup if Hinrich can’t play. Guard Marco Belinelli will have a solid role in the series after scoring 24 points in the Game 7 victory and 22 points the previous outing.

ABOUT THE HEAT: James and his teammates are well-rested after the extended break – one that should help guard Dwyane Wade’s balky right knee. Wade recently returned to practice and is expected to be in the starting lineup for the opener. Wade told reporters on Sunday he’s more concerned about his level of conditioning than the knee. “When you go out for a while, your wind is the first thing to go and your legs get heavy,” Wade said. “So it’s just about getting them under you early on and just getting into the game.” The Heat won all four games of the Milwaukee series by double digits.

TRENDS

* Heat are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games.
* Bulls are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games following a SU win.
* Over is 7-1 in Bulls last eight games playing on one day rest.
* Home team is 5-2 in the last seven meetings.

BUZZER BEATERS

1. The teams split four regular-season meetings, including a Chicago victory on March 27 that ended Miami’s 27-game winning streak.

2. The two teams met in the 2011 Eastern Conference finals with Miami winning the series in five games.

3. Chicago is 7-23 all-time when playing a postseason Game 1 on the road.



Golden State Warriors vs. San Antonio Spurs (-8.5, 201)
Game 1

The Golden State Warriors were longshots to make the Western Conference semifinals as the No. 6 seed. After dispatching the Denver Nuggets in six games, the Warriors will be staring at even slimmer odds when they open a seven-game series at the second-seeded San Antonio Spurs on Monday. Golden State has not won in San Antonio since 1997, and the Spurs looked dominant in cruising past the Los Angeles Lakers in four games.

The Warriors lost David Lee to a torn hip flexor in a Game 1 loss against the Nuggets but leaned on Stephen Curry the rest of the way. Curry will need to have another big series against San Antonio, which held the Lakers to an average of 85.3 points in a four-game sweep. The Spurs have been sitting around waiting for the rest of the Western Conference to finish up the first round since April 28, giving Manu Ginobili an extra eight days to rest his tender hamstring and Tiago Splitter the same time to recover from an ankle sprain.

TV: 9:30 p.m. ET, TNT

ABOUT THE WARRIORS: Andrew Bogut had his best game in a Golden State uniform with 14 points, 21 rebounds and four blocks in the decisive Game 6 against the Nuggets and will be counted on even more against Tim Duncan and a bigger San Antonio front line. The Warriors got plenty of open looks on the perimeter for the likes of Harrison Barnes, Jarrett Jack, Draymond Green and Klay Thompson in the first round and will continue to run to the 3-point line on the break and off the pick-and-roll. Golden State will go as far as Curry can take the team, and the star guard has had a few extra days to rest his ailing left ankle since the series with the Nuggets ended on Thursday. Curry rolled the ankle in Game 2 and was the target of some physical play the rest of the series but never stopped draining big second-half jumpers. He did his most damage in the third quarter of the Warriors’ wins and was a key during the decisive run in Game 6. Now all Golden State needs to do is get over the mental hurdle of a near-breakdown at the end of Game 6, when a slew of turnovers and missed shots allowed the Nuggets to creep back into the game.

ABOUT THE SPURS: San Antonio sputtered down the stretch in the regular season, with Ginobili and Tony Parker missing time, but had no trouble with the beat-up Los Angeles Lakers in the first round. The Spurs swept that series by an average of 18.8 points and have an offense that can get out and run with the Warriors and even challenge them on the perimeter with 3-point shooters Danny Green, Kawhi Leonard, Matt Bonner and Gary Neal. San Antonio is also capable of playing stifling defense, as the Lakers learned in the first round. “This is a good start for us,” Duncan said after the Game 4 win over Los Angeles. “We like the pace we’re at now. We like the rhythm we’re at right now and how healthy we are right now. Hopefully it can stay that way.”

TRENDS

* Warriors are 5-0 ATS in their last five road games.
* Warriors are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games against the Western Conference.
* Spurs are 4-0 in their last four games overall.
* Under is 4-1 in last five meetings in San Antonio.
* Over is 4-1 in Spurs' last five games at home.

BUZZER BEATERS

1. Lee made an emotional one-minute return to the lineup in Game 6 and will be available off the bench against the Spurs, though not likely for extended minutes.

2. Parker averaged 22.3 points and 6.5 assists in the first round despite not playing more than 27 minutes in the final two games.

3. The teams split four games in the regular season but San Antonio has taken 17 of the last 19 meetings.


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NBA

Monday, May 6

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
NBA playoff betting: Round 2 trends and stats
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With the top seeds having flexed their muscle in the opening round of the NBA playoffs, it’s on to Round 2 where a series upset is always in the realm of possibility.

Here are four solid moneymaking angles from my powerful database that have withstood the test of time throughout the second round playoff action, along with a few tempting team trends.

All results are ATS and since 1991, unless noted otherwise.

No. 1 for a reason

One golden rule in this round applies to top seeds: Never lay points against No.1 seeds.

That’s because inferior teams are just 16-27-1 ATS when playing points into No. 1 seeds since 1996. Worse, if the No. 1 seed is off a SU and ATS loss, lower seeded favorites are just 3-10 ATS.

And if the lower seeded favorite beat the top seed and covered the spread by nine or more points, they dip to 1-10 ATS.

Tripped out favorites

Teams that take it on the chin three times in a row do not fare well when laying points in Round 2.

That’s confirmed by the fact that teams laying points off three consecutive losses that are 3-13 ATS in these games.

Worse, if they dropped their last game straight up as a favorite, these teams generally fall off the map and out of the playoffs, going 3-7 SU and 0-10 ATS.

Role reversals

You may not be comfortable changing roles in a relationship, but NBA teams in this round of the playoffs certainly are.

Round 2 dogs (or picks) off a straight-up loss as a favorite are a 58 percent ATS proposition, going 32-23 ATS.

When changing roles off back-to-back SU and ATS losses, these pick-of-the-litter plays bark to the tune of 12-6 ATS, including 11-1 ATS if they own a win percentage of less than .675 on the season.

Running on empty

Home favorites that scored well below their average (77 or less points) in their previous game tend to fuel up the next game in this round.

That’s evident by a sparkling 21-9-1 ATS mark by Round 2 favorites that tallied 77 or fewer points in their last game.

Put these favorites up against .625 or greater opposition and they top off at 16-3 ATS, including 13-1 when laying four or more points.

Tantalizing playoff trends

Chicago: 5-1-1 ATS in second round versus .696 greater opponent
Golden State: 0-3-1 ATS in second round off a win
Indiana: 0-5 ATS as second-round favorite off ATS win 18 or more points
Memphis: 0-3 ATS in second round vs. opponent off loss
Miami: 7-0 ATS second round off double-digit loss
New York: 5-1 ATS as second-round double-digit dog
Oklahoma City: 0-5 ATS in second round off win 20 or more points
San Antonio: 8-1 ATS as second-round home favorite more than 8 points

[StarDust Bum]

Inside the Paint - Monday

May 6, 2013


Even though the first round of the NBA playoffs watched the home team produce a 31-15 (67%) straight up record, gamblers did witness three underdogs advance to the second round and two them will be in action tonight.

Golden State knocked off Denver in six games as a 5/1 (Bet $100 to $550) underdog and Chicago outlasted Brooklyn in seven games at a small return of 3/2 odds (Bet $100 to win $150).

The Warriors and Bulls turned some heads in the first round but the oddsmakers aren’t expecting much from the pair in the conference semifinals.

Sportbook.ag has Miami as an overwhelming 1/35 (Bet $3,500 to win $100) series favorite against Chicago, who can be bought back at 15/1 odds. San Antonio is a minus-750 (Bet $750 to win $100) favorite in its best-of-seven series against Golden State. Close to their first round series take-back, the Warriors are plus-525 (Bet $100 to win $525) against the Spurs.

If you believe the Heat and Spurs will advance in this round and in the conference finals, you could take advantage of NBA Finals Possible Matchup Props at Sportsbook.ag as well.

The Heat-Spurs matchup is currently the favorite at EVEN money with the Heat-Thunder (+250) and Heat-Grizzlies (+500) listed second and third. If you believe the Warriors will represent the Western Conference and meet the Heat in the finals, you might want to take a shot at the generous 17/1 odds (Bet $100 to win $1,700) listed on this prop.

Let’s take a closer look at the opening tilts tonight.

Game 1 – Chicago at Miami (TNT, 7:05 p.m.)

Oddsmakers opened Miami as an 11 ½-point home favorite for Game 1 and you could probably argue the line should be higher. The Heat should be ready to go since they haven’t played in over a week when they completed their first round sweep over Milwaukee last Sunday. In that series, Miami won and covered all four games as it held the Bucks to an average of 85.3 points per game.

Despite being short-handed, Chicago showed a lot of heart this past Saturday as it knocked off Brooklyn 99-93 in Game 7 of its first round series. The Bulls cashed as seven-point road underdogs. Luol Deng sat out Game 7 against the Nets and did not travel with the team to Miami. He’s likely to miss the second installment as well. Point guard Kirk Hinrich (calf) also missed Saturday’s win and his return is ‘questionable’ for Monday.

Derrick Rose (knee) hasn’t played since last year’s playoffs and his return is still a mystery. However, reports have said that he’ll sit out the rest of the season despite scrimmaging with the team since February.

2012-13 Head to Head Meetings

Date Results Total

Jan. 4, 2013 Chicago (+7.5) 96 at Miami 89 UNDER 189.5

Feb. 21, 2013 Miami (-3.5) 86 at Chicago UNDER 186

Mar. 27, 2013 Chicago (+6.5) 101 vs. Miami 97 OVER 186

Apr. 14, 2013 Miami (-9.5) 105 vs. Chicago OVER 190


Looking above, you can see that these teams split their regular season battles and both of them earned a road win. The one game a lot of pundits will point to is the Bulls 101-97 home victory on Mar. 27, which snapped the Heat’s 27-game winning streak. Make a note that Deng scored 28 points in that win.

Since Miami hasn’t played in seven days, the rust factor could come into play. However, Miami is a perfect 6-0 (3-3 ATS) this season when playing on three days of rest or more and it’s the offense that has helped them. In these rested situations the Heat have averaged 112 PPG which has helped the ‘over’ produce a 5-1 mark.

VegasInsider.com expert Marc Lawrence has pointed out solid historical trends that favor the Heat in this spot tonight as well. He said, “Teams playing with 7 or more days of rest are 7-0 both SU and ATS in the second round series since 200. In addition, teams in Game 1 of a second round, off a Game 7 playoff win, are 0-7 both SU and ATS on the road since 1990. The average losing margin is 24 PPG, with every loss coming by 13 or more points.”

Game 2 will take place on Wednesday from American Airlines Arena.

Game 1 – Golden State at San Antonio (TNT, 9:35 p.m.)

Similar to the Heat, the Spurs are well rested after sweeping the Los Angeles Lakers in the first round. San Antonio cashed tickets in all four games against the beat-up Lakers and every outcome was decided by double digits, the last two on the road by 31 and 21 points. Golden State should be a much tougher opponent in the second round but San Antonio will likely be favored throughout the series barring any key injuries.

Oddsmakers opened San Antonio as an eight-point home favorite for Game 1 and the line has been pushed up to 8 ½ and 9 at some betting shops. That could come as a surprise considering the Warriors have been “Golden” (pun intended) for bettors this postseason.

Mark Jackson’s team stopped Denver in six games and they covered every game in that series. If you look at the end of the regular season, the Warriors will take a nine-game ATS winning streak into Game 1 tonight.

Do you grab the points and ride the road team in this spot?

2012-13 Head to Head Meetings

Date Results Total

Jan. 18, 2013 San Antonio (-11.5) 95 vs. Golden State 88 UNDER 202

Feb. 22, 2013 Golden State (+3.5) 107 vs. San Antonio 101 (OT) UNDER 208.5

Mar. 20, 2013 San Antonio (-8) 104 vs. Golden State 93 UNDER 203

Apr. 15, 2013 Golden State (-6) 116 vs. San Antonio 106 OVER 199.5


VI handicapper Kevin Rogers noted, “The home team won all four meetings during the regular season, but the final victory by Golden State at Oracle Arena came in which San Antonio was resting players towards the end of the year.”

“It's been a very long time since the Warriors last won in San Antonio, a stretch of 29 consecutive losses dating back to February 14, 1997. To prove how long ago that was, Dominique Wilkins led the Spurs with 22 points that night.“

In case you’re wondering, Latrell Sprewell led Golden State with 20 points and we’re guessing he won’t be giving any pre-game speeches to the Warriors this postseason.

The total on tonight’s game is hovering around 201 points. During the regular season meetings, the ‘under’ went 3-1. Even though both clubs have sharpshooters on the outside, Denver (3-3) and San Antonio (2-2) both saw the total split in the first round.

Golden State forward David Lee (hip) missed the final five games in the first-round against Denver but he could see limited minutes tonight. The Spurs won’t have Tiago Splitter (ankle) or Boris Diaw (back) available for the opener.

Rest has proven to be productive for San Antonio this season. The club produced a 7-1 SU and 5-3 ATS mark on three days of rest or more. Defensively, the Spurs only allowed 91.9 PPG in the eight games.

The two teams will tangle again on Wednesday in Game 2.

[StarDust Bum]

Preview: Warriors (47-35) at Spurs (58-24)

Date: May 06, 2013 9:30 PM EDT


Spurs coach Gregg Popovich pokes fun at questions from reporters all the time and can be easily irritated and annoyed, especially after losses, which is what made his reaction to Stephen Curry sinking seven 3-pointers in Golden State's 116-106 win over San Antonio last month such a rare scene.

"It's actually fun to watch," Popovich said following the game in Oakland on April 15, when he rested most of his starters. "Everybody hates losing, but I enjoyed watching a talented kid perform the way he did, and he does it with class."

Curry can captivate almost any audience in a way almost nobody else can, and he's led the Warriors to the second round against the Spurs starting Monday night in San Antonio, where Golden State has lost an astonishing 29 straight visits.

What makes Curry so compelling might be the simplest of basketball skills: shooting.

All of 6-foot-3 and 185 pounds, Curry controls games without ever overpowering defenders. His shooting stroke might be the best on the planet right now, and when he gets going, nobody has found a way to slow him down.

"He has a gift that you can count on your hand how many people have," Warriors coach Mark Jackson said. "Everyone wants to be a shooter. And then you look at him, he looks like a baby. And he's smiling and he never gets out of character and he's a class act. I just think at the end of the day people see him and say, `Man, that's how I want my son to be.'"

The diminutive guard who dazzled during Davidson's run to the regional finals of the 2008 NCAA tournament has stolen the NBA spotlight this season - especially in the playoffs - the way he did in college.

Curry scored a career-high 54 points against the Knicks at Madison Square Garden on Feb. 27, and he also had 47 points at the Los Angeles Lakers on April 12. In the Game 4 win over Denver in the first round, Curry had perhaps his finest moment: he scored 22 of his 31 points in a 6-minute, 22-second span of basketball bliss.

On the ball or off the dribble, the quick-shooting guard showed the kind of range that helped him make 272 3-pointers in the regular season - three more than Ray Allen's record set in 2005-06 with Seattle.

"You just have confidence and try to make an imprint because the opportunity is huge right now," Curry said. "It's a big stage. I have to live up to it."

Injuries remain a concern for Curry even now. He sprained his left ankle in Game 2 against Denver and has been somewhat hobbled ever since.

Curry said he took an injection that has "just a heavy dose of an anti-inflammatory" in his ankle after Game 3 and before Game 4 against the Nuggets for the first time in his career. He said the shot lasts for about six hours and helps ease the pain - but doesn't completely numb it.

Curry isn't counting on taking another shot before Game 1 on Monday night in San Antonio. If anything, his teammates believe the Spurs might need a remedy to quiet Curry.

"Any time he's in the half court he's in range. You scratch your head and the shot is going in," said center Andrew Bogut, who had 14 points and 21 rebounds in the decisive Game 6 versus Denver. "So as long as he keeps shooting the ball the way he is, the sky is the limit for us."

While the spotlight is clearly fixed on Curry entering this series, Kawhi Leonard's emergence has given the Spurs their own rising star.

"He's tremendous," Warriors point guard Jarrett Jack said. "I think in a year or two he's definitely going to be one of the top small forwards in this league, somebody who is going to be a potential All-Star candidate."

Not that Leonard is at all interested in extra attention.

"Right now I'm just here to win games," he said. "It doesn't matter what the nation thinks about my game. I have goals set for myself. I want to reach my own goals; I'm not trying to reach anyone's expectations for myself."

Leonard's development in his second season was critical to San Antonio finishing second in the West and capturing the franchise's 19th division title.

With injuries limiting Tim Duncan, Tony Parker and, especially, Manu Ginobili this season, Leonard has arguably become 3A among the Spurs' Big 3.

"He's a heck of a basketball player," Jackson said. "They got a steal in the draft - a guy that knows how to play, that was ready to play and does everything the right way on the floor. His ability to defend, compete, understands his role, has the ability to be a guy that can wait for those guys to make plays but he also has the ability to be facilitate and be a playmaker. The future is extremely bright for him. You can see, at some point, the passing of the torch."

Leonard averaged 11.9 points during the regular season while shooting 49 percent from the field, and upped those marks to 12.3 and 55.3 percent in a first-round sweep of the Lakers.

The 6-foot-7 forward was third on the team in scoring this season, the first time anyone other than the Big 3 has cracked the top three since Ginobili's rookie season in 2003.

Leonard has also become one of the Spurs' top defenders, regularly guarding opponents' primary scorers such as the Los Angeles Lakers' Kobe Bryant.

"He's a big key in what we do," said Parker, who averaged 22.3 points in the first round. "He's improving and we need him to have a good series against (Golden State)."

The Spurs will need huge contributions from Leonard and all their perimeter players to offset the Warriors.

The Warriors are averaging 107.2 points per game in the playoffs, including a league high in points this postseason with a 131-117 win over Denver in Game 2.

San Antonio held Los Angeles to 85.3 points in sweeping that series, but the Lakers were without Bryant. The Spurs don't have that luxury against the Warriors.

Curry is averaging 24.5 points in the postseason and a league high 9.3 assists.

"He's like a (Kevin) Durant, a very good shooter," Parker said. "He's a great scorer. Right now he's on a roll. He's playing great basketball so it's going to be a good challenge."

While much attention will be paid defensively to Curry, the Spurs know they cannot focus exclusively on him.

Jack and Klay Thompson each shot 40 percent from 3-point range this season, with Thompson going 211 for 526.

"All three are the same," Ginobili said. "Even Jarrett Jack that is not supposed to be one of the better shooters in the league, he shot 40 for the season. All three are very skilled shooting well and that's why they are in the second round."

Golden State has not won in San Antonio since Feb. 14, 1997 - when Duncan was a senior in college.

"I said it before, it's not our history," Jackson said. "We haven't gotten it done for two years, but we are a team that's more than capable of going into somebody else's building and beating them. We feel confident and comfortable about that. That's not an easy task; but we're excited about going to San Antonio and facing them. We don't pay any attention to what history says. Because that body of work is not our body of work."

[StarDust Bum]

Preview: Bulls (45-37) at Heat (66-16)
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Date: May 06, 2013 7:00 PM EDT


MIAMI (AP) - If needed, there's plenty of things Miami and Chicago could use as extra motivation before meeting in a playoff series, like how the Heat rolled to a win when they met in the Eastern Conference finals two years ago or how the Bulls snapped the reigning champions' 27-game winning streak down the stretch of this regular season.

Then again, maybe the simple fact these clubs don't particularly like each other is all the fuel they'll need.

Top-seeded Miami plays host to fifth-seeded Chicago in Game 1 of an East semifinal series on Monday night, with the Heat coming off a week of rest after sweeping Milwaukee and the Bulls dealing with aftereffects of a grueling, seven-game first-round series.

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Chicago took an injury-and-illness-riddled roster into Brooklyn and ousted the Nets on Saturday night.

``Them being the Bulls is enough,' Heat forward Chris Bosh said Sunday. ``Heat-Bulls, I think that's enough to really get your minds going and have some passion for the series. I mean, it's the second round. We have some major accomplishments we're trying to get to and they're a good, tough basketball team. I think given our history before, that's enough to lace `em up and get going.'

The teams split four regular-season meetings, each going 1-1 in home games.

For Miami, the biggest injury question is Dwyane Wade, who is officially listed as day-to-day with bone bruises around his right knee, but is expected to play on Monday. For Chicago, the medical report is far tougher to decipher. Luol Deng wrote on Twitter that he would ``see you guys in Miami' after missing the end of the Brooklyn series because he needed a spinal tap to rule out meningitis, and Kirk Hinrich missed the last three games of Round 1 with a calf injury.

It appears Deng will have to wait at least a few more days to see the Heat. He's still not with the team and early Monday was ruled out for Game 1, with coach Tom Thibodeau saying he isn't sure when Deng will rejoin the club.

Hinrich is a game-time decision for the opener.

``We know how good Miami is,' Thibodeau said. ``We're going to have to be at our best, or playing great basketball. They're a very deep team, extremely well-coached, very well-balanced. So we're going to have to be at our best, right from the start.'

The Bulls arrived in Miami early Sunday and took the day off, which was surely a well-needed break.

Meanwhile, a couple hours before LeBron James formally picked up his fourth NBA MVP award, the Heat were in their practice gymnasium at their home arena, mouth guards in place, knee pads in position, going through a physical workout. For the first time since ousting Milwaukee, they took the floor knowing which team would be their next foe.

``We're preparing to make sure that we play our game, in our building,' Heat coach Erik Spoelstra said. ``We haven't played in a week and we understand that. We've been working hard this week. Our guys are looking forward to getting out there and competing. So let's tip this thing up.'

The Derrick Rose watch is still on for the Bulls.

The star point guard hasn't played in more than a year after needing reconstructive knee surgery. Rose often works out before games and there's almost daily speculation about whether he will return in these playoffs - so the Heat say they will be ready either way.

``We gameplan with the awareness of everybody,' Spoelstra said. ``But again, the majority of what we do won't change. We've built up these habits.'

Regardless of who's healthy or not, the Bulls got Miami's attention - as if they didn't have it already - by the way they fought through plenty of adversity in the opening round.

Bulls forward Carlos Boozer said after Saturday's win in Brooklyn that he didn't think many people expected Chicago to win.

``We've been hearing that noise all year that we don't have enough, that we're missing this and we're missing that,' Boozer said.

James insisted the Heat aren't among those who might think that way. In fact, the now four-time MVP said he expected Chicago to pull off the rare trick of winning a Game 7 on the road against Brooklyn.

``It's how it should be in the East right now,' James said. ``It's the top four teams. That's what I believe. No matter the seedings, it's the top four teams, with us, Chicago and Indiana-New York.'

Bulls center Joakim Noah said he expected a physical matchup - ``it's going to be a war,' he said - and the Heat said Sunday they were bracing for plenty of rugged play in this series.

In fact, it almost sounds like both sides would be disappointed otherwise.

``It's going to be hard-fought,' Heat forward Shane Battier said. ``It's going to be physical. It's going to be emotional. And I think it's going to be well-played. That's all that matters.'

Miami needed only five games to beat the Bulls in the East finals in 2011, even after losing Game 1 of that series. The teams figured to be on a collision course last season before Rose went down in the first round, and this year Miami dropped a 101-97 decision in Chicago that left the Heat six games shy of matching the 1971-72 Los Angeles Lakers' NBA-record 33-game winning streak.

And now, here they go again.

``We've got to win four games and we've got to take it game by game,' Wade said. ``Can't worry about that. That was the regular season. That was fun. That's over with. This is a different ballgame.'

[StarDust Bum]

Playoff Results - 2nd Round

May 5, 2013

First Round

Overall Game Results:

-- Home teams are 1-1
-- Favorites are 1-1 straight up
-- Underdogs are 2-0 against the spread
-- The Over-Under is 1-1

Away Home Score ATS Result Total Result
Sunday May 5, 2013

Memphis Oklahoma City (-3.5) 93-91 Underdog Under (186.5)

Indiana (+5, +200) New York 102-95 Underdog Over (182)

Monday May 6, 2013
Chicago Miami - - -
Golden State San Antonio - - -

Tuesday May 7, 2013
Memphis Oklahoma City - - -
Indiana New York - - -

Wednesday May 8, 2013
Chicago Miami - - -
Golden State San Antonio - - -

Thursday May 9, 2013
New York Indiana - - -
Oklahoma City Memphis - - -

Friday May 10, 2013
Miami Chicago - - -
San Antonio Golden State - - -

Saturday, May 11, 2013
New York Indiana - - -
Oklahoma City Memphis - - -

Sunday May 12, 2013
Miami Chicago - - -
San Antonio Golden State - - -

*If Neccessary

[StarDust Bum]

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

05/05/13 2-*2-*0 50.00% -*100 Detail
05/04/13 0-*2-*0 0.00% -*1100 Detail
05/03/13 5-*3-*0 62.50% +*850 Detail
05/02/13 2-*2-*0 50.00% -*100 Detail
05/01/13 4-*2-*0 66.67% +*900 Detail

Totals 13-*11-*0 54.17% +450


Monday, May 6

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Chicago - 7:00 PM ET Chicago +12 500 POD # 4


Miami - Over 188.5 500 POD # 1




Golden State - 9:30 PM ETGolden State +9 500 POD # 3


San Antonio - Under 203.5 500 POD # 2