The Bum's February's NCAA Best Bets !!

[StarDust Bum]

Games to Watch

February 11, 2013

For the last five weeks of the men's college basketball season the No. 1 team in nation fell in defeat. This week it was Indiana with a last second loss to Illinois. All this simply means is that the race to secure one of the top four seeds in this year's NCAA Tournament remains as wide open as ever with no clear cut favorite to win the national title.

The following is a brief preview of a top matchup on each day's slate this week along with a few facts and figures to help handicap the game.

Monday, Feb. 11

No. 13 Kansas State Wildcats vs. No. 5 Kansas Jayhawks (9 p.m. ESPN)

Kansas State should move up in the rankings after extending its current winning streak to four games with a 79-70 victory over Iowa State this past Saturday as a 6 ½-point home favorite. It now has the lead in the Big 12 standings by one game at 8-2 straight-up and is 19-4 overall. The Wildcats have covered in three of their last four games to move to an even 9-9-1 ATS overall. The total has gone OVER in six of their last nine games. Rodney McGruder is the only player scoring in double figures with 15 points a game and while Kansas State is only averaging 68.8 points a game, it is holding its opponents to 58.3 points.

The Jayhawks are mired in a stunning and extremely rare three-game losing streak after Saturday's 72-66 loss to Oklahoma as 11 ½-point road favorites. This slide has dropped them to 7-3 in the conference and 19-4 overall. It was the fourth game in a row where they failed to cover the spread to fall to a costly 9-13 ATS overall. Kansas will look to regain the form that had it averaging 73 points a game while shooting 46.9 percent from the field. The key could be the play of Travis Releford and Jeff Withey, who were both instrumental in the Jayhawks' 59-55 victory over Kansas State as 3 ½-point road favorites the first time they met this season.

Tuesday, Feb. 12

No. 3 Michigan Wolverines vs. No. 12 Michigan State Spartans (9 p.m. ESPN)

It has been a wild ride for the Wolverines over the past three games with a tough 81-73 loss to Indiana as 5 ½-point road underdogs, a huge 76-74 overtime victory against Ohio State as seven-point home favorites and a 65-62 overtime loss to Wisconsin this past Saturday as two-point underdogs on the road. They are now 8-3 in the Big Ten and 21-3 SU overall. Michigan failed to cover in all three of these games and is now 12-9-1 ATS. The total went OVER in its last three games as well. The Wolverines remain one of the top shooting teams in the nation; hitting 49.8 percent from the field.

Michigan State moved into a tie with Indiana atop the Big Ten standings at 9-2 after knocking off Purdue 78-65 this past Saturday as a four-point road favorite. It is now 20-4 SU on the year and 9-11-1 ATS. The total has gone OVER in three of its last four games. The Spartans return home where they are a perfect 14-0 SU this season. Keith Appling leads the team with 14.1 points and 4.1 assists a game and Gary Harris is averaging 12.7 points while shooting 46.5 percent from the field.

Wednesday, Feb. 13

North Carolina Tar Heels vs. No. 4 Duke Blue Devils (9 p.m. ESPN)

The Tar Heels were hammered by Miami this past Saturday 87-61 as 7 ½-point road underdogs to fall to 6-4 in the ACC and 16-7 overall. They are 11-9 ATS overall and 3-5 ATS on the road this season. The total has gone OVER in five of their last six games. Despite the up and down nature of North Carolina this season, it remains one of the top scoring teams in the nation with 78.3 points a game and ranked fifth in rebounds with 41.7 a game. James-Michael McAdoo leads the team in both categories with 14.9 points and 8.2 rebounds a game.

Duke could very well find itself back in the No.1 spot in the new rankings after extending its current winning streak to five with a very tight 62-61 win over Boston College as an 11-point road favorite this past Saturday. The Blue Devils still trail Miami in the ACC standings by two games at 8-2 and are 21-2 overall. ATS, they are 13-10 and 6-6 at home. The total has gone OVER in six of their last eight games. Mason Plumlee and Seth Curry remain the team's top two scoring threats. Plumlee leads the Blue Devils with 18.2 points and 10.7 rebounds while Curry is chipping-in another 16.8 points a game.

Thursday, Feb. 14

No. 6 Gonzaga Bulldogs vs. Saint Mary's Gaels (11 p.m. ESPN2)

Gonzaga could crack the top five this week in the national rankings after posting its 23rd victory of the season against just two losses. It remained a perfect 10-0 in the West Coast Conference with a 74-55 drubbing of Loyola Marymount this past Saturday as a 24 ½-point home favorites. The Bulldogs have failed to cover in four of their last six games and are 12-10-1 ATS overall. The total has stayed UNDER in seven of their last eight games. Gonzaga has one of the most potent offenses in Division I with 78.6 points a game while shooting 50.7 percent from the field. Kelly Olynyk has led the way with 17.7 points a game.

St. Mary's will look to avenge an earlier 83-78 loss to Gonzaga as a nine-point road underdog. It was its only conference loss of the season to remain neck and neck with the Bulldogs in the standings at 10-1. Overall the Gaels are 21-4 SU and a perfect 13-0 at home. They are 12-9-1 ATS this season and 5-6 ATS at home with the total going over in three of their last five games overall. Matthew Dellavedova is averaging 15.9 points and 6.6 assists for St. Mary's squad that is scoring 77.8 points a game while shooting an impressive 49.3 percent from the floor.

Friday, Feb. 15

No. 20 Georgetown Hoyas vs. No. 17 Cincinnati Bearcats (9 p.m. ESPN)

The Hoyas are just one game back in the Big East standings at 8-3 heading into a key Monday night matchup against Marquette. Overall, they are 17-4 on the year after beating Rutgers this past Saturday 69-63 as 4 ½-point road favorites. Georgetown has now covered in its last five games to improve to 10-7 ATS this season. The total has gone OVER in its last three games. The team as a whole is averaging just 64.4 points a game but ranked eighth in the country in points allowed; giving-up an average of just 55.7 points a game.

Cincinnati will try and snap a two-game skid against Villanova on Tuesday night before taking on the Hoyas in this matchup. Saturday's 62-52 loss to Pittsburgh as one-point home favorites dropped the Bearcats' overall record to 18-6 and left them mired in the middle of the Big East standings at 6-5. They are 9-11 ATS this season while covering the spread in just one of their 10 home games with a posted line. The total has stayed UNDER in their last five games. Cincinnati is scoring 70.5 points a game but shooting just 41.6 percent from the field and 32.2 percent from three-point range.

[StarDust Bum]

Big Ten biggie: Michigan St. hosts Michigan

February 12, 2013


EAST LANSING, Mich. (AP) - For the first time in the history of the series, Michigan and Michigan State will play each other while ranked among the top 10.

Bragging rights won't be the only thing at stake Tuesday night when the eighth-ranked Spartans (20-4, 9-2 Big Ten) host the fourth-ranked Wolverines (21-3, 8-3) in the first matchup of 20-win teams in Division I basketball this season.

Michigan State will be playing to move into sole possession of first place in the Big Ten against its on-the-rise rival, and another victory might help NCAA tournament positioning. Michigan wants to win to move within a half-game of first-place and top-ranked Indiana in the conference standings and to boost its shot at being a top-seeded team next month.

``The nation is talking about it now,'' Michigan State coach Tom Izzo said. ``And, there's a sick side of me that it makes happy. Who wouldn't rather dominate in a rivalry series? But it's not a series that should be dominated by either squad because both teams should be good and both teams are good this year. In my estimation, this is their best team in a lot of years.''

The Wolverines have their best overall record through 24 games in program history and were ranked No. 1 two weeks ago for the first time since the 1992-93 season in what was the second year of the Fab Five era.

``Bringing Michigan back to the national scene is certainly happening right now,'' coach John Beilein said.

Michigan, though, has lost two of its last three games and is desperately trying to avoid having back-to-back setbacks in the regular season for the first time in more than two years.

The Spartans certainly have a lot to play for, too. With their next two home games against the Wolverines and Hoosiers, the conference race is coming through East Lansing.

``If we win this game, we have an edge on everybody,'' Michigan State senior Derrick Nix said. ``We want that. It's a must-win game.''

The point guard matchup might prove to be pivotal.

Michigan is led by Trey Burke, a national player of the year candidate who' the first Big Ten player since ex-Michigan State star Magic Johnson to average more than 17 points and seven assists.

The Spartans rise and fall with the play of Keith Appling, whose clutch play late in games has helped them win three in a row and nine of their last 10 games. Appling is scoring 14-plus points per game and with four-plus assists per game, he directs a balanced offense with four other players averaging at least nine points.

Beilein said he began feeling uneasy about how he was going to find someone to guard Appling when he scored 49 points for Detroit Pershing in the 2009 Class A state title game, and found his answer by recruiting Burke out of Columbus, Ohio.

``Our guy is pretty good, too,'' Beilein said. ``They'll go at it.''

Michigan State seems to have more muscle inside with Nix, a 6-foot-9, 270-pound center, and 6-10, 240-pound power forward Adreian Payne going against Jordan Morgan, if he can play with a sprained right ankle, and Glen Robinson III. If Morgan can't play, the Wolverines will lean on sophomore Jon Horford along with freshmen Mitch McGary and Max Bielfeldt.

The Wolverines may have more quickness with shooting guard Tim Hardaway Jr. going against Gary Harris and when Robinson or Nik Stauskas have the ball, or are running around screens, while being guarded by Branden Dawson.

``It should make for a heck of a game,'' Izzo said. ``It's fun to actually feel like the game matters in every way shape or form both locally and nationally. I'm not sure that has happened since I've been here where both are important.''

No, it hasn't.

The closest both teams have been to being Top 10 teams when they've played was March 3, 1990, when Izzo was an assistant under Jud Heathcote, and the 14th-ranked Spartans beat No. 8 Michigan 78-70.

For the first of two highly anticipated matchups of the rivals, Payne predicts the Breslin Center will be ``shaking'' with fired-up fans.

Burke doesn't expect crowd noise to rattle the Wolverines, who have played in raucous arenas at Indiana, Wisconsin and Ohio State.

``We're used to it,'' he said.

[StarDust Bum]

Ivy League Betting Angles

February 10, 2013

Fading Home 'Dogs

Poison Ivy

With the college basketball season now in full conference swing, let’s examine a handicapping theory that yields a much better return on your investment than the banks do these days.

It deals with teams playing back-to-back days without rest during the regular season. In particular, Ivy League games, noted for playing back-to-back contests on Friday and Saturday nights.

What we’re looking to target on is how brain-chain teams fare the second night of these affairs no-rest affairs.

Let’s take a closer look at a few of the more suitable situations.

Creaky Double Digit Chalk

According to our database the worst role for these teams is as double-digit home favorites, where they are just 53-82-3 ATS overall since the 1990-91 season.

Even worse, double-digit favs with a .687 or greater win percentage are just 16-38 ATS.

Digging deeper, if these tired hosts are facing an opponent that was a dog of 16 or more points the previous night, they check in at 14-34 ATS, including 5-20 ATS provided chalk has lost two or more home games this season.

Fool Me Twice

Revenge serves as a motivating tool in these no-rest Ivy League matchups, especially when we bring a visiting team in with double-revenge incentive from a pair of losses suffered last season.

That’s confirmed by a 50-32-1 ATS mark when these wonder-boys are in the road, including 34-13-1 ATS when taking seven or more points when fueled with double-revenge incentive.

Better yet, bring these guys in with a lukewarm win percentage of .375 or less in this role and they make the Dean’s List, going 26-8 ATS.

Triskaidekaphobia Road

Our third and final theorem occurs when these non-rested Ivy Leaguers are on the Saturday night road as dogs off a loss of 13 or more points.

Dress them up as dogs in this role and they are 62-47-1 ATS, including 39-24 ATS when taking 10 or more points.

Bring them into these same games with a win percentage of .400 or less and they ratchet up to 35-14 ATS, including 21-6 ATS when facing a foe off a win of more than 10 points.

There you have it, the perfect calamine lotion for Ivy League teams in constant motion.

Keep an eye on this hypothesis throughout the end of the Ivy League campaign. Remember, should you feel a strange itch coming on, don’t scratch it. Simply apply the proper antidote.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB
Dunkel

Villanova at Cincinnati
The Bearcats look to take advantage of a Villanova team that is coming off a 68-40 win over South Florida and is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games following a victory by more than 20 points. Cincinnati is the pick (-6) according to Dunkel, which has the Bearcats favored by 8 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-6). Here are all of today's games.

TUESDAY, FEBRUARY 12

Game 513-514: Seton Hall at Rutgers (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seton Hall 57.954; Rutgers 64.516
Dunkel Line: Rutgers by 6 1/2; 128
Vegas Line: Rutgers by 4 1/2; 133
Dunkel Pick: Rutgers (-4 1/2); Under

Game 515-516: Virginia Tech at Virginia (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Virginia Tech 55.928; Virginia 73.749
Dunkel Line: Virginia by 18; 132
Vegas Line: Virginia by 14; 126
Dunkel Pick: Virginia (-14); Over

Game 517-518: Cleveland State at Detroit (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland State 49.304; Detroit 66.794
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 17 1/2
Vegas Line: Detroit by 15
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-15)

Game 519-520: Towson at James Madison (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Towson 56.205; James Madison 54.639
Dunkel Line: Towson by 1 1/2
Vegas Line: James Madison by 2 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Towson (+2 1/2)

Game 521-522: Valparaiso at Wright State (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Valparaiso 59.699; Wright State 61.488.481
Dunkel Line: Wright State by 2
Vegas Line: Valparaiso by 1
Dunkel Pick: Wright State (+1)

Game 523-524: Kentucky at Florida (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kentucky 70.043; Florida 85.465
Dunkel Line: Florida by 15 1/2; 138
Vegas Line: Florida by 9 1/2; 135
Dunkel Pick: Florida (-9 1/2); Over

Game 525-526: Indiana State at Missouri State (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indiana State 63.055; Missouri State 59.686
Dunkel Line: Indiana State by 3 1/2
Vegas Line: Indiana State by 4 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Missouri State (+4 1/2)

Game 527-528: Loyola-Chicago at WI-Milwaukee (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Loyola-Chicago 53.189; WI-Milwaukee 46.877
Dunkel Line: Loyola-Chicago by 6 1/2
Vegas Line: Loyola-Chicago by 5 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Loyola-Chicago (-5 1/2)

Game 529-530: Villanova at Cincinnati (8:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Villanova 63.585; Cincinnati 71.905
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 8 1/2
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 6
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-6)

Game 531-532: Michigan at Michigan State (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Michigan 74.552; Michigan State 75.724
Dunkel Line: Michigan State by 1; 129
Vegas Line: Michigan by 1 1/2; 132
Dunkel Pick: Michigan State (+1 1/2); Under

Game 533-534: Alabama at Georgia (9:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Alabama 63.920; Georgia 63.920
Dunkel Line: Even; 108
Vegas Line: Georgia by 1 1/2; 112
Dunkel Pick: Alabama (+1 1/2); Under

Game 535-536: Manhattan at Fairfield (7:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Manhattan 53.660; Fairfield 59.834
Dunkel Line: Fairfield by 6
Vegas Line: Fairfield by 8 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Manhattan (+8 1/2)

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB
Long Sheet

Tuesday, February 12

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SETON HALL (13 - 11) at RUTGERS (12 - 10) - 2/12/2013, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
RUTGERS is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
RUTGERS is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) on Tuesday nights over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
RUTGERS is 3-2 against the spread versus SETON HALL over the last 3 seasons
RUTGERS is 3-2 straight up against SETON HALL over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

VIRGINIA TECH (11 - 12) at VIRGINIA (17 - 6) - 2/12/2013, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
VIRGINIA TECH is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) after scoring 60 points or less over the last 2 seasons.
VIRGINIA TECH is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) versus poor offensive teams - scoring <=64 points/game after 15+ games since 1997.
VIRGINIA TECH is 7-19 ATS (-13.9 Units) versus poor offensive teams - scoring <=64 points/game since 1997.
VIRGINIA is 44-28 ATS (+13.2 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
VIRGINIA is 44-28 ATS (+13.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
VIRGINIA is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in all home games this season.
VIRGINIA is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in home lined games this season.
VIRGINIA TECH is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in road games after a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
VIRGINIA TECH is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
VIRGINIA is 3-1 against the spread versus VIRGINIA TECH over the last 3 seasons
VIRGINIA is 4-1 straight up against VIRGINIA TECH over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

CLEVELAND ST (12 - 13) at DETROIT (16 - 9) - 2/12/2013, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CLEVELAND ST is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) as an underdog this season.
CLEVELAND ST is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in road games this season.
CLEVELAND ST is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in road lined games this season.
CLEVELAND ST is 44-87 ATS (-51.7 Units) off a loss against a conference rival since 1997.
CLEVELAND ST is 10-19 ATS (-10.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 21-32 ATS (-14.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 21-32 ATS (-14.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 12-23 ATS (-13.3 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) as a home favorite of 12.5 or more points over the last 3 seasons.
DETROIT is 7-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) in all home games over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 7-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
CLEVELAND ST is 4-2 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
CLEVELAND ST is 4-2 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

TOWSON ST (14 - 12) at JAMES MADISON (14 - 12) - 2/12/2013, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
JAMES MADISON is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) as a favorite this season.
JAMES MADISON is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in all home games this season.
JAMES MADISON is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in home lined games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
TOWSON ST is 3-2 against the spread versus JAMES MADISON over the last 3 seasons
JAMES MADISON is 4-1 straight up against TOWSON ST over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

VALPARAISO (19 - 6) at WRIGHT ST (17 - 8) - 2/12/2013, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
VALPARAISO is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) after a conference game this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
WRIGHT ST is 3-1 against the spread versus VALPARAISO over the last 3 seasons
VALPARAISO is 4-1 straight up against WRIGHT ST over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

KENTUCKY (17 - 6) at FLORIDA (19 - 3) - 2/12/2013, 7:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
FLORIDA is 246-201 ATS (+24.9 Units) in all games since 1997.
FLORIDA is 246-201 ATS (+24.9 Units) in all lined games since 1997.
FLORIDA is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) after allowing 60 points or less over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
KENTUCKY is 3-2 against the spread versus FLORIDA over the last 3 seasons
KENTUCKY is 5-1 straight up against FLORIDA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

INDIANA ST (16 - 8) at MISSOURI ST (7 - 18) - 2/12/2013, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MISSOURI ST is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) against conference opponents this season.
MISSOURI ST is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) after a conference game this season.
INDIANA ST is 14-7 ATS (+6.3 Units) in all games this season.
INDIANA ST is 14-7 ATS (+6.3 Units) in all lined games this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANA ST is 4-2 against the spread versus MISSOURI ST over the last 3 seasons
INDIANA ST is 4-2 straight up against MISSOURI ST over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

LOYOLA-IL (13 - 11) at WI-MILWAUKEE (5 - 20) - 2/12/2013, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
LOYOLA-IL is 17-29 ATS (-14.9 Units) after a conference game over the last 3 seasons.
WI-MILWAUKEE is 155-114 ATS (+29.6 Units) against conference opponents since 1997.
WI-MILWAUKEE is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) in February games over the last 3 seasons.
WI-MILWAUKEE is 148-113 ATS (+23.7 Units) after a conference game since 1997.
LOYOLA-IL is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in road games in February games over the last 2 seasons.
LOYOLA-IL is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in road games after scoring 60 points or less over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
WI-MILWAUKEE is 4-1 against the spread versus LOYOLA-IL over the last 3 seasons
WI-MILWAUKEE is 3-2 straight up against LOYOLA-IL over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

VILLANOVA (15 - 9) at CINCINNATI (18 - 6) - 2/12/2013, 8:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
VILLANOVA is 3-14 ATS (-12.4 Units) in February games over the last 3 seasons.
VILLANOVA is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) in road games after allowing 60 points or less over the last 3 seasons.
VILLANOVA is 22-35 ATS (-16.5 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
VILLANOVA is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in all games this season.
VILLANOVA is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in all lined games this season.
VILLANOVA is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in road games this season.
VILLANOVA is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in road lined games this season.
CINCINNATI is 7-18 ATS (-12.8 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 6 points since 1997.
CINCINNATI is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in all home games this season.
CINCINNATI is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) in home lined games this season.
CINCINNATI is 54-79 ATS (-32.9 Units) in home games against conference opponents since 1997.
CINCINNATI is 52-77 ATS (-32.7 Units) in home games after a conference game since 1997.
CINCINNATI is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record this season.
CINCINNATI is 34-53 ATS (-24.3 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record after 15 or more games since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
VILLANOVA is 2-1 against the spread versus CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
CINCINNATI is 2-1 straight up against VILLANOVA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MICHIGAN (21 - 3) at MICHIGAN ST (20 - 4) - 2/12/2013, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MICHIGAN ST is 22-10 ATS (+11.0 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
MICHIGAN ST is 22-9 ATS (+12.1 Units) after a conference game over the last 2 seasons.
MICHIGAN ST is 18-6 ATS (+11.4 Units) off a win against a conference rival over the last 2 seasons.
MICHIGAN is 52-31 ATS (+17.9 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
MICHIGAN is 52-31 ATS (+17.9 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
MICHIGAN is 44-26 ATS (+15.4 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 3 seasons.
MICHIGAN is 26-13 ATS (+11.7 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game over the last 3 seasons.
MICHIGAN ST is 2-12 ATS (-11.2 Units) as a home favorite of 3 points or less or pick since 1997.

Head-to-Head Series History
MICHIGAN is 3-1 against the spread versus MICHIGAN ST over the last 3 seasons
MICHIGAN is 3-1 straight up against MICHIGAN ST over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

ALABAMA (15 - 8) at GEORGIA (12 - 11) - 2/12/2013, 9:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GEORGIA is 8-19 ATS (-12.9 Units) in home games on Tuesday nights since 1997.
GEORGIA is 10-22 ATS (-14.2 Units) versus good defensive teams - allowing <=64 points/game over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ALABAMA is 3-0 against the spread versus GEORGIA over the last 3 seasons
ALABAMA is 3-0 straight up against GEORGIA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

MANHATTAN (8 - 15) at FAIRFIELD (15 - 10) - 2/12/2013, 7:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
MANHATTAN is 3-2 against the spread versus FAIRFIELD over the last 3 seasons
FAIRFIELD is 4-1 straight up against MANHATTAN over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB
Armadillo's Write-Up

Tuesday, February 12

-- Nine of last ten Seton Hall-Rutgers games were decided by 6 points or less; road team won last five series games. Pirates won last five visits to Piscataway, by 13-5-11-5-5 points. Big East home favorites of 7 or less points are 3-19 vs spread. Rutgers lost its last six games, losing three in row at home, by 12-20-6 points. Hall is turning ball over 25.3% of time in league play; they've lost last five games, scoring 58.2 ppg.
-- Virginia made 11-23 from arc, had only six turnovers in 74-58 win (-5) in Blacksburg Jan 24, its 4th win in last five series games. Cavaliers won six of last seven games, are 5-0 at home in ACC, with four wins by 9+ points. Five of last six Virginia games went over total. ACC double digit home favorites are 10-3 vs spread. Tech lost last six games, scoring 58.3 ppg in last three; best player Green was dehydrated in last game.
-- Cleveland State is 1-5 on road in Horizon League, with all five losses by 12+ points, but they upset Detroit 74-62 (+8) Jan 12, making 8-14 on arc. Vikings won three of last four series games, but are 3-6 last nine visits here. Detroit won four of last five games, scoring 75+ points in the four wins- they're 4-2 at home in league, winning by 15-8-51-11 points. Horizon double digit home favorites are 5-4 vs spread.
-- 14-12 Towson State was 1-31 LY; they're 5-1 on CAA road, won last four games overall- they waxed James Madison 76-47 (-3) Jan 19, with Dukes shooting just 25.5% from floor. That was Tigers' first series win in last five tries; they've lost last five visits here, CAA home favorites of 6 or less points are 10-16 vs spread. JMU is 6-1 at home in conference, with only loss by 11 to George Mason.

-- Valparaiso (-9) shot 57% inside arc, beat Wright State 69-63 at home Jan 19, game they trailed by 7 with 6:43 left; Crusaders won four of last five series games, but lost three of last four visits here, with win couple years ago. Favorites are 15-3 vs spread in Horizon games where spread is 3 or less points. Wright is 8-4 in Horizon, with five of eight wins by three or less points. Valpo won nine of its last ten games overall.
-- Kentucky won five of last six games vs Florida, beating Gators three times LY, but they're 2-6 in last eight visits here. Wildcats won last five games overall, with wins at Ole Miss/A&M; they're 4-1 on SEC road, losing by 4 at Alabama. Florida is 5-0 at home in SEC, with one win by less than 25 points (14). SEC single digit home favorites are 11-17 vs spread. This is really a bigger game for Florida; UK has nothing to lose.
-- Indiana State (-10) shot 65% inside arc, beat Missouri State 68-60 at home Jan 16, ISU's third win last four series games. Sycamores won six of last eight games, but lost four of last five on road, with win by 13 at Wichita. MVC home underdogs of 5 or less points are 11-3 vs spread. Bears covered 11 of last 13 games, but lost last two, by 11-29 points- they're 4-2 at home in Valley, losing by 22-10 points.
-- Loyola shot 62% inside arc, beat Milwaukee 76-65 (-12) January 30, but they're 0-3 since then, losing last two games by combined total of 4 points. Ramblers split last six visits here- six of their 11 league games have been decided by 3 or less points. Milwaukee lost last eight games, with six of last seven losses by 10+ points- theur only league win was over Cleveland State here. Horizon single digit home underdogs are 9-6.

-- Cincinnati is 4-2 on road, 2-3 at home in Big East play; they lost last two games, scoring 50-52 points- they beat Villanova twice LY, both by 4 points. Home team won six of last seven series games. Big East home favorites of 7 or less points are 3-19 vs spread. Wildcats won four of last six games, winning three of last four at home- they're getting to foul line at higher rate than any team in country. .
-- Tough stretch of games for Michigan, playing 4th top 15 team in last 11 days, with last two games going OT. Wolverines are 3-3 on road in league, losing last two, at Indiana/Wisconsin- they've won three of last four games vs Michigan State, but they're 1-6 in last seven visits here. Favorites are 10-5 vs spread in Big Dozen games where spread is 4 or less points. Spartans won nine of last 10, are 5-0 at home in league.
-- Georgia won last five games, allowing 53 ppg, after looking dead with 7-11 record before that; Dawgs are 3-2 at home in SEC, winning by 9-8-6 points- they've lost last three games with Alabama, scoring 58.3 ppg. Crimson Tide won seven of last nine games; six of Bama's last seven games were decided by 4 or less points. SEC home teams are 15-11 vs spread if number was 5 or less points.
-- Manhattan won three of last four games after a 5-14 start; they're 1-6 in last seven games vs Fairfield, losing last five visits here, by 2-5-9-7-6 points. Jaspers are 2-5 on MAAC road, with four losses by 4 points or less, none by more than 8. MAAC home favorites of 8+ points are 10-7 vs spread. Fairfield won its last five games, four by 10+, allowing 49.6 ppg; Stags won last three home games, by 34-10-17 points.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB

Tuesday, February 12

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Trend Report
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

7:00 PM
KENTUCKY vs. FLORIDA
Kentucky is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Florida
The total has gone UNDER in 16 of Kentucky's last 22 games on the road
Florida is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Kentucky
Florida is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home

7:00 PM
CLEVELAND STATE vs. DETROIT
Cleveland State is 3-10 ATS in its last 13 games when playing on the road against Detroit
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cleveland State's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Detroit's last 5 games at home
Detroit is 20-2 SU in its last 22 games at home

7:00 PM
TOWSON vs. JAMES MADISON
Towson is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against James Madison
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Towson's last 6 games when playing on the road against James Madison
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of James Madison's last 5 games when playing Towson
James Madison is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games

7:00 PM
VIRGINIA TECH vs. VIRGINIA
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Virginia Tech's last 7 games when playing on the road against Virginia
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Virginia Tech's last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Virginia's last 6 games when playing Virginia Tech
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Virginia's last 6 games

7:00 PM
VALPARAISO vs. WRIGHT STATE
Valparaiso is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Valparaiso's last 5 games on the road
Wright State is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Wright State is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against Valparaiso

7:00 PM
SETON HALL vs. RUTGERS
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Seton Hall's last 7 games when playing on the road against Rutgers
Seton Hall is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Rutgers
Rutgers is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Rutgers's last 7 games when playing at home against Seton Hall

8:00 PM
LOYOLA OF CHICAGO vs. WISC-MILWAUKEE
Loyola of Chicago is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Loyola of Chicago is 4-10 SU in its last 14 games when playing on the road against Wisc-Milwaukee
Wisc-Milwaukee is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Wisc-Milwaukee's last 7 games when playing Loyola of Chicago

8:00 PM
VILLANOVA vs. CINCINNATI
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Villanova's last 5 games on the road
Cincinnati is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Villanova
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Cincinnati's last 7 games when playing Villanova

8:00 PM
INDIANA STATE vs. MISSOURI STATE
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Indiana State's last 6 games on the road
Indiana State is 3-16 SU in its last 19 games when playing on the road against Missouri State
Missouri State is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games at home
Missouri State is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Indiana State

8:00 PM
CS BAKERSFIELD vs. TEXAS-SAN ANTONIO
No trends available
The total has gone OVER in 6 of Texas-San Antonio's last 7 games at home
Texas-San Antonio is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games at home

9:00 PM
MICHIGAN vs. MICHIGAN STATE
Michigan is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Michigan State
Michigan is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games on the road
Michigan State is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
Michigan State is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Michigan

9:00 PM
ALABAMA vs. GEORGIA
Alabama is 4-8 SU in its last 12 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Alabama's last 5 games on the road
Georgia is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Alabama
Georgia is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB

Tuesday, February 12

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Study group: Tuesday’s Top 25 NCB betting notes
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Kentucky at (6) Florida (-11)

The top two teams in the Southeastern Conference standings play a pivotal contest when Florida hosts Kentucky. The Gators are 11-0 at the O’Connell Center and have won their five SEC home contests by an average of 28.4 points. Kentucky has won five straight games and is playing stellar basketball after a bumpy start. The Gators have adjusted some roles after losing junior forward Will Yeguete (second in rebounding at 6.3) to a knee injury. The loss leaves junior center Patric Young (10.8 points, team-best 6.6 rebounds) as the lone force in the interior. Florida has held 16 opponents under 60 points and allows an SEC-low 52.7 points per game. The Gators are 1-4 ATS in their last five Tuesday games.

(5) Michigan at (8) Michigan State (Pick)

The intense race for the Big Ten regular season title heats up when Michigan visits Michigan State in a mammoth encounter. The Wolverines suffered a stunning loss to Wisconsin, which forced overtime on a 40-footer by Ben Brust, falling into a third-place tie and spoiling a chance at gaining the top ranking in the country. The Spartans had no such drama in their 78-65 win at Purdue on Saturday, which allowed them to enter the week still tied with Indiana atop the Big Ten. Michigan will need to find its legs after back-to-back overtime games. The Wolverines will also need to rediscover the offensive prowess that has made them a special unit at times this season. Against the gritty Badgers, Michigan shot 39.4 percent, just a shade over its season low, and reached the foul line for just two attempts. The home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB

Tuesday, February 12

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Ranked teams continue to stink ATS in February
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

On the heels of some notable upsets last week, we looked at how nationally ranked teams were doing against the spread in conference play. It wasn’t pretty.

We dive back into those numbers, with more shockers in recent days, looking at how programs in the latest Top 25 Coaches Poll have done so far this month.

The newest top 5 teams – Duke, Indiana, Gonzaga, Miami, and Michigan – are a combined 12-3 SU and 8-7 ATS so far in February.

Breaking it down by the top 10 – including Florida, Syracuse, Michigan State, Arizona and Butler – the top-ranked teams are 24-6 SU, 14-15-1 ATS.

And, looking over the entire Top 25 USA Today poll, ranked teams have combined to go 54-19 SU and 34-37-2 ATS in February so far.

The only two teams with perfect ATS marks so far this month are No. 4 Miami (3-0 SU, 3-0 ATS) and No. 15 Georgetown (2-0 SU, 2-0 ATS), which takes on No. 20 Marquette Monday.

There are four Top-25 teams with 0-3 ATS counts this month: No. 5 Michigan, No. 6 Florida, No. 13 Kansas (heading into Monday’s game with No. 11 Kansas State), and No. 23 Creighton, which has fallen off the pace in the Missouri Valley with back-to-back losses.

For total bettors, the top 10 teams have a combined 19-11 over/under count so far this month while the entire Top 25 have produced a 42-31 over/under record in February.

------------------------------------------------------------

NCAAB

Tuesday, February 12

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
One up, one down: Streaking, slumping NCAAB teams
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

March may be mad, but conference play is crazy. It’s tough to keep track of all the movers and shakers in the college ranks, so we break it down for you with one up and one down in each of the six major conferences.

ACC

Up: Virginia Cavaliers (17-6 SU, 13-6-1 ATS)

The Cavs have won back-to-back games heading into Tuesday’s rivalry tilt with Virginia Tech, and have come away with victories in six of their last seven (5-2 ATS).

Down: North Carolina State Wolfpack (17-7 SU, 11-11-0 ATS)

The Wolfpack snapped a three-game losing skid with a one-point squeaker over Clemson this weekend, failing to cover for the third straight game. N.C. State is just 3-3 SU and 2-4 ATS in its last six outings.


Big 12

Up: West Virginia Mountaineers (12-11 SU, 8-11-2 ATS)

Bob Huggins has his team peaking just in time for the home stretch. The Mountaineers have won three straight and four of their last six, posting a 4-2 ATS mark.

Down: Kansas Jayhawks (19-4 SU, 9-13-0 ATS)

Kansas is playing itself out of a No. 1 seed, dropping three straight heading into Monday’s ill-timed clash with rival Kansas State. The Jayhawks have not rocked as chalk, failing to cover as favorites in their last four games.


Big East

Up: Georgetown Hoyas (17-4 SU, 10-7-0 ATS)

The Big East is coming down with a case of Hoyas Paranoia since Georgetown strung together five wins in a row. The Hoyas have one loss in their last eight outings, heading into Monday’s game with Marquette, posting a 7-1 ATS count in that stretch.

Down: Cincinnati Bearcats (18-6 SU, 9-11-0 ATS)

Cincinnati is hitting the wall, losing back-to-back outings including an embarrassing road loss to Providence. Bearcats bettors saw this slide coming thanks to a 3-7 ATS record in their last 10.


Big Ten

Up: Michigan State Spartans (20-4 SU, 9-11-1 ATS)

Injuries slowed down Sparty early in the season, leading to a dismal record against the spread. However, MSU is finally healthy-ish and has won nine of its last 10, going 6-3-1 ATS.

Down: Minnesota Golden Gophers (17-7 SU, 13-9-0 ATS)

Minnesota looked like a possible sleeper in the Big Ten early in the season. Then the Gophers fell asleep. Minnesota has just two wins in its last eight contests, boasting a 3-5 ATS mark in that span.


SEC

Up: Georgia Bulldogs (12-11 SU, 10-9-0 ATS)

Georgia has quietly become the hottest team in SEC hoops, winning five in a row while covering the spread in all of those games. The Bulldogs have benefited from an easy stretch of schedule, though.

Down: Florida Gators (19-3 SU, 12-7-0 ATS)

The upset loss to Arkansas was bad enough. But Gators backers have lost their patience with Florida, which has failed to cover the spread in three straight heading into Tuesday’s game versus Kentucky.


Pac-12

Up: USC Trojans (11-13 SU, 9-12-2 ATS)

In the crazy world of the Pac-12, Southern Cal’s three-game winning streak still stands out (2-0-1 ATS). The Trojans upset UCLA and took out both Washington schools for their first three-game streak in two years.

Down: Oregon Ducks (19-5 SU, 9-13-0 ATS)

Oregon halted a three-game slide with a win over Utah but couldn’t make bettors happy, failing to cover for the sixth straight game. The Ducks are a dreadful 2-8 ATS in their last 10 outings.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAB
Top 25 Short Sheet

Tuesday, February 12

Kentucky at Florida, 7:00 ET
Kentucky: 9-23 ATS after a game where they failed to cover the spread
Florida: 11-4 ATS after a win by 15 points or more

Michigan at Michigan State, 9:00 ET
Michigan: 9-1 ATS after having lost 2 of their last 3 games
Michigan State: 1-8 ATS after allowing 65 points or less 2 straight games

[StarDust Bum]

Tuesday, February 12

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Seton Hall - 7:00 PM ET Seton Hall +4 500
Rutgers - Over 130 500

Kentucky - 7:00 PM ET Florida -10.5 500
Florida - Under 133 500

Valparaiso - 7:00 PM ET Valparaiso +1.5 500
Wright St. -

Cleveland St. - 7:00 PM ET Cleveland St. +14.5 500
Detroit -

Towson - 7:00 PM ET Towson +4 500
James Madison -

Virginia Tech - 7:00 PM ET Virginia Tech +14 500
Virginia - Under 124 500

Manhattan - 7:00 PM ET Fairfield -8 500
Fairfield -

Loyola-Chicago - 8:00 PM ET Loyola-Chicago -5 500
Wis.-Milwaukee -

Indiana St. - 8:00 PM ET Missouri St. +4.5 500
Missouri St. -

Villanova - 8:00 PM ET Cincinnati -7.5 500
Cincinnati -

Alabama - 9:00 PM ET Georgia +1 500
Georgia - Under 111.5 500

Michigan - 9:00 PM ET Michigan St +1 500 BIG 10 GOM
Michigan St - Under 132 500

[StarDust Bum]

Wednesday, February 13

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Texas-El Paso - 8:00 PM ET Texas-El Paso -3 500
Houston -

Arizona St. - 8:00 PM ET Arizona St. -2 500
Utah -

Creighton - 8:00 PM ET Creighton -2 500
Northern Iowa -

Tulane - 8:00 PM ET Tulane +11 500
Southern Miss -

Missouri - 8:00 PM ET Missouri -12.5 500
Mississippi St. -

Ball St. - 8:00 PM ET Ball St. +2 500
Northern Illinois -

Central Florida - 8:00 PM ET Memphis -12.5 500
Memphis - Over 138.5 500

Iowa St. - 8:00 PM ET Iowa St. +0 500
Texas -

Tennessee - 8:00 PM ET Vanderbilt -2.5 500
Vanderbilt -

Drake - 8:00 PM ET Drake +15 500
Wichita St. -

Bradley - 8:05 PM ET Illinois St. -11.5 500
Illinois St. -

Evansville - 8:05 PM ET Southern Illinois +1.5 500
Southern Illinois -

Nevada - 9:00 PM ET Wyoming -6 500
Wyoming -

West Virginia - 9:00 PM ET Baylor -8 500
Baylor - Over 134 500

Arkansas - 9:00 PM ET Auburn +3.5 500
Auburn -

North Carolina - 9:00 PM ET Duke -10.5 500
Duke - Over 151.5 500

Purdue - 9:00 PM ET Illinois -8 500 POD
Illinois - Under 133 500

UNLV - 9:00 PM ET Air Force +3.5 500
Air Force -

Providence - 9:00 PM ET South Florida +0 500
South Florida - Under 120 500

Oregon St. - 10:00 PM ET Washington St. -3.5 500
Washington St. -

San Diego St. - 10:00 PM ET Colorado St. -5.5 500
Colorado St. - Under 131.5 500

New Mexico - 10:00 PM ET New Mexico -7.5 500
Fresno St. -

UC Riverside - 10:00 PM ET UC Irvine -11 500
UC Irvine -

Oregon - 11:00 PM ET Oregon +2 500
Washington - Over 138 500

Cal St. Fullerton - 11:00 PM ET Long Beach St. -6.5 500
Long Beach St. - Over 158.5 500

[StarDust Bum]

Bracketology Update

February 13, 2013

As is usually the case at this time of the season, NCAA Tourney projections can vary wildly from one week to the next. Which is one reason why we wanted to post another update, as much has changed from out last report a couple of weeks ago, including our four number one seeds (now Florida, Duke, Indiana, and Miami, Fl.).

Like always, we break down the projected matchups by each region, beginning with the sub-regionals, which this year will begin on Thursday, March 21. Remember, conference tournaments begin soon; previews of those will begin in just a couple of weeks.

Straight-Up records and RPI are thru Sunday, Feb. 10.

EAST REGIONAL (Washington, D.C.)

At Lexington...

1 Florida (19-3, 4) vs. 16 Florida Gulf Coast (18-8, 98)...Normally, a team like Florida would get knocked off of the top line after an effort like last week's ugly loss at Arkansas. But with almost every other potential number one seed also going down within the last week, the damage is lessened, and a watered-down SEC doesn't figure to offer too many other speed bumps for the Gators. At the moment, Fort Myers-based Florida Gulf Coast holds a slim lead over Mercer in the Atlantic Sun; the Eagles' relatively-solid RPI would probably allow them to miss the 16 vs. 16 play-in game should they win the A-Sun Tourney (although Mercer gets to host that event in Macon).

8 UNLV (18-6, 23) vs. 9 North Carolina State (17-7, 19)...Both of these sides have been sliding down the seeding scale the past couple of weeks, although each temporarily stopped the bleeding over the weekend. UNLV, however, could fall into bubble trouble if it continues to falter on the road in Mountain West play (recent losses at Boise and Fresno haven't helped), while the alarm bells would definitely have been ringing in Raleigh had the Wolfpack not squeezed out that 1-point win at Clemson on Sunday. We suspect these two both straighten themselves out before Selection Sunday, but for now rate no better than the 8-9 range.

At Austin...

4 Virginia Commonwealth (19-5, 51) vs. 13 Bucknell (20-4, 57)...VCU has regained some traction with three straight wins, and a look at the upcoming slate suggests the Rams could develop lots of momentum heading into the A-10 Tourney at the new Barclays Center in Brooklyn, where the event has moved after being conducted at Convention Hall in Atlantic City the past few years. The Patriot League race changed in January when Lehigh G C.J. McCollum (23.9 ppg) went down with a foot injury, but Andrea Tantaros' alma mater has stayed afloat and has managed an upset over Bucknell, which temporarily assumed the league's favored role when McCollum went down. The winner of their rematch on Presidents Day at Bethlehem likely gets to host the conference tourney and the huge edge that entails.

5 Oregon (19-5, 42) vs. 12 Saint Louis (18-5, 60)...The Ducks have waddled out of protected seed territory with three losses in their last four games, coinciding with the absence of star frosh G Dominic Artis, temporarily sidelined by a foot injury. Oregon was also wobbly when finally stopping the skid on Saturday vs. Utah, so the slide could continue until Artis returns. Into our field for the first time is Jim Crews' surging Saint Louis, as the Billikens have won six straight and 15 of 17 entering this week. Three key games in the next ten days vs. Charlotte, Butler, and VCU will likely decide SLU's at-large fate.

At Philadelphia...

2 Syracuse (20-3, 8) vs. 15 Stony Brook (17-5, 81)...Good news over the weekend for Syracuse in that star F James Southerland resolved his eligibility issues and was available again for active duty. With Southerland back in the fold, look for the Orange to re-establish control of the Big East race and have a chance to end up on the top line after all. The America East race looks to be a two-horse race between the Strat-o-matic headquarters home team, Long Island's Stony Brook, and the Vermont Catamounts. Keep an eye on the league table, as the winner gets homecourt edge throughout the fast approaching conference tourney, which has proved a huge edge in this loop in the past.

7 Oklahoma (15-7, 21) vs. 10 Ole Miss (18-5, 46)...Lon Kruger's resurgent Oklahoma got the marquee win it was looking for last Saturday against Kansas, and its solid RPI suggests the Sooners could be wearing the home jerseys in the first round of the Dance. This would be a record fifth appearance with a different school in the Dance for Kruger, who has previously steered alma mater Kansas State, Florida, Illinois, and UNLV to the NCAA Tourney. Despite last Saturday's blowout loss at Missouri, we think Ole Miss is still on pretty safe ground away from the cut line, although the downgraded SEC could cause some RPI-related problems if the Rebs slip a few more times, and we would keep an eye on a possible upcoming suspension for F Reginald Buckner after throwing punches in last Saturday's loss at Missouri.

At Auburn Hills...

3 Michigan State (20-4, 11) vs. 14 Harvard (13-7, 79)...Look out for Michigan State, as Tom Izzo once again seems to have a team that could be peaking as it hits March (which we have seen from the Spartans before). A bonus as a protected seed for MSU would be an almost-certain sub-regional assignment to nearby Auburn Hills, where the dynamics could be very interesting with fans of rival Michigan (also likely ticketed for The Palace) rooting hard for the Spartans' opponent. Which could be Harvard, once again looking like the class of the Ivy League, although Tommy Amaker's side was dumped on Sunday by Columbia in a game postponed a day by the Nemo storm. The game vs. Princeton this Saturday at Cambridge appears to be the first of a two-legged showdown to determine the Ivy's Big Dance rep.

6 Cincinnati (18-6, 26) vs. 11 Temple (16-7, 49)/North Carolina 16-7, 32)...At only 6-6 in its last twelve games, Cincy is quickly slipping out of sight of a protected seed, and a quick look at the upcoming slate suggests the Bearcats could fall further down the seeding scale for Mick "The Ghost" Cronin. Tourney regulars Temple and, dare we say, North Carolina are both riding the bubble at the moment, and no guarantees to make it into the Dance. The Owls are living dangerously with a pair of one-point wins in the last week vs. Charlotte & Dayton keeping Fran Dunphy's side in the field (barely) at the moment. We've suspected this isn't one of Roy Williams' vintage Chapel Hill editions since early in the season, and last Saturday's lopsided loss at Miami further confirms those suspicions.

SOUTH REGIONAL (Arlington, TX)

At Philadelphia...

1 Duke (21-2, 1) vs. 16 Bryant (16-6, 132)/Norfolk State (15-10, 199)...Duke is No. 1 in the Coaches' Poll this week (Indiana in the AP Poll), not that the Blue Devils or any other team is welcoming that designation this season. Coach K's side almost looked as if it didn't want the burden of being number one when nearly blowing its Sunday game at lowly Boston College, surviving by only a 62-61 count. Whatever, Philly would be a proper sub-regional destination for the Blue Devils, whose alumni base is heavy in the Northeast. The America East race looks like it is going to come down to the Bryant (Gumbel) Bulldogs and Vermont Catamounts; in Bryant's case, it is quite a story after last year's 2-28 mark. Right now we suspect the AE champ likely gets involved in one of the 16 vs. 16 play-in games, as almost assuredly will be the MEAC champ. Which at the moment looks like it could once again be Norfolk State, although the Spartans will be entering March without the star of last year's giant killers, C Kyle O'Quinn, now with the NBA Orlando Magic.

8 UCLA (18-6, 39) vs. 9 Wichita State (20-5, 41)...UCLA badly needed the two wins its recorded last weekend vs. the Washington schools, as a loss to either would have been damaging to the Bruins' recently-weakening NCAA case that featured losses in 3 of 4 before the visits by the Huskies and Cougs. Still, Ben Howland's team isn't out of the woods yet. An assignment vs. Wichita would be a rematch of the 1965 Final Four at Portland, when John Wooden's Bruins rolled by a 108-89 count. That Shocker team remains one of the most-unlikely Final Four qualifiers in our memory, as Wichita lost star players Dave Stallworth and Nate Bowman during the course of that season. Like UCLA, Wichita has been heading in the wrong direction the past few weeks, losing three of four; the Shockers can still play themselves out of an at-large spot, especially if they lose their upcoming Bracket Buster vs. Detroit.

At San Jose....

4 Butler (20-4, 15) vs. 13 Middle Tennessee (22-4, 28)...Butler likely has to win the A-10 Tourney to stay in consideration for a protected seed. But if the Bulldogs succeed in Brooklyn, they will have a solid case for a top-four regional seed, with some very good non-conference wins (North Carolina, Indiana, Gonzaga) in their back pockets. As for Kermit Davis' MTSU, the upcoming Sun Belt Tourney at Hot Springs will be a chance to correct a wrong from last year when the similarly-favored Blue Raiders were dumped in the conference tourney, and unlikely Western Kentucky emerged. Remember, MTSU advanced to the NIT last March where it won games before exiting.

5 Marquette (17-5,16) vs. 12 Virginia (17-6, 100)...Marquette will certainly have a chance to play its way into a protected seed, but the treacherous Big East could also knock the Golden Eagles down the ladder as well. Marquette's difficulties shooting the three-ball (where it is only hitting 30%) could pose problems in the next few weeks. Virginia's RPI has been hurt by very-early losses to George Mason and Delaware in November, but the Wisconsin win is now looking better for Brit Hume's alma mater, and the Cavs have climbed into third place in the ACC after their crucial Sunday win at Maryland.

At Auburn Hills...

2 Michigan (21-3, 5) vs. 15 Northeastern (16-8, 127)...Recent losses at Indiana and Wisconsin have probably moved John Beilein's Wolverines off of the top line for the time being, although Michigan has time to play itself back into a number one seed. The Colonial can be thankful that Northeastern is its one contending team that is improved from year ago, or else the CAA would be a candidate to send its rep into one of the 16 vs. 16 play-in games. Which could still happen if there are upsets in the conference tourney at Richmond. What happened to the CAA this season? No more VCU (off to the A-10) in the loop, it's hardly a vintage George Mason contingent this season, and we've seen what has happened to usual contender Old Dominion.

7 San Diego State (18-5, 25) vs. 10 Villanova (15-9, 68)...A few weeks ago we were weighing Steve Fisher's SDSU as a possible protected seed, but some recent banana peels in the Mountain West have shoved the Aztecs a bit down the ladder. Meanwhile, lots of intrigue regarding surging Villanova, which can't afford too many other slip-ups like its recent loss vs. Providence, but continued its ascent last week vs. DePaul and South Florida. Now Jay Wright's Wildcats are at least in position to capitalize upon January wins over Louisville and Syracuse, which remain some very nice chips to cash on Selection Sunday.

At Salt Lake City...

3 Pittsburgh (20-5, 34) vs. 14 Davidson (17-7, 112)...Perhaps making the biggest jump of all in the past two weeks has been Jamie Dixon's surging Pittsburgh, which is moving up the Big East table in a hurry with wins in 7 of its last 8 games and a chance to hit the conference tourney in full flight with a favorable schedule in the next three weeks. Although having absorbed some losses in pre-league play, Bob McKillop's Davidson has taken command of the SoCon and appears to be a clear favorite for that fast-approaching conference tourney in Asheville.

6 Oklahoma State (17-5, 27) vs. 11 Akron (19-4, 52)...With five straight wins, including a stunner at Kansas on February 2, Ok State has moved far clear of the cut line and might have a chance to nab a protected seed if the uptick continues. A matchup vs. Akron would be a rematch of a competitive game played in the Puerto Rico Shootout back in November, when the Cowboys won by 4. As for the Zips, the question is if they could warrant serious at-large consideration (and make the MAC a two-bid league) if they lose in the conference tourney; Keith Dambrot's streaking side enters the week on a nation's-best 15-game win streak. For that reason, its upcoming Bracket Buster game vs. North Dakota State will take on added significance.

MIDWEST REGIONAL (Indianapolis)

At Dayton...

1 Indiana (21-3, 13) vs. 16 Southern U (16-8, 186)/UNC-Asheville (15-10, 157)...Although Indiana blew a chance to remain on top of the polls when losing at Illinois last week, the Sunday win at Ohio State stabilized the situation enough so that the Hoosiers probably remain on the top line as we head into mid-February. Expect the Big South and SWAC champs to be two of the four teams in the pair of 16 vs. 16 play-in games. Significant developments over the past two weeks in the Big South, as UNC-Asheville has pulled ahead of Charleston Southern in the South half of the loop and would now appear to be the favorite for the upcoming conference tourney, where Charleston Southern and Scott Cherry's High Point figure to provide the stiffest opposition. Meanwhile, Southern U remains the only SWAC side above .500, although Arkansas-Pine Bluff enters the week having pulled level in the league standings.

8 Kentucky (17-6, 44) vs. 9 Colorado (16-7, 20)...Yes, we acknowledged that John Calipari's newest group of diaper dandies isn't quite the equal of his last one a year ago. But no, we don't think the Cats are going to be in danger of missing the Dance, with several winnable games remaining on the SEC slate. Colorado has also moved safely away from the cut line after last weekend's pair of wins on the road against the Oregon schools. The Buffs had put themselves in some trouble with a slow start in Pac-12 play, but their solid RPI ought to provide some cushion on Selection Sunday.

At Kansas City...

4 Notre Dame (19-5, 50) vs. 13 Belmont (20-5, 18)...Five overtimes vs. Louisville is enough to move Notre Dame (at least temporarily) back into protected seed territory. But the Irish still have three Big East road games remaining vs. currently-ranked teams and could slide back into the 6-7 seed range if not careful. Belmont, like fellow mid-majors Akron and La Tech, has positioned itself for a possible at-large berth if it can't win the tourney in the Ohio Valley, where the Bruins moved from the Atlantic Sun. Stiff opposition, however, figures to come from Isaiah Canaan and Murray State, which won the OVC Tourney a year ago and beat the Bruins last week. Both are also involved in tricky Bracket Busters (Belmont vs. Ohio, the Racers against Nate "53-point" Wolters and South Dakota State) late next week.

5 Colorado State (19-4, 14) vs. 12 Arizona State (18-6, 61)...Don't sleep on senior-laden CSU, which has cracked the national rankings for the first time in 59 years, has won four straight, and has an RPI to suggest that the Rams could be in contention for a protected seed if they keep winning. Arizona State's prospects are a bit more dicey at the moment, especially after Saturday's narrow home loss vs. Stanford. Not much more room for error for Herb Sendek's Sun Devils if they want to stay on the safe side of the cut line.

At Lexington...

2 Louisville (19-5, 7) vs. 15 Montana (18-4, 86)....Although Rick Pitino's Cards have lost four times in recent weeks (including the five-OT marathon on Saturday at Notre Dame), the 'Ville and its single-digit RPI remain in solid shape for a protected seed. Since a recent win over Weber State, Montana has been in control of the Big Sky race, which comes with an extra bonus; the regular-season champ gets to host the conference tourney. Remember, the Grizzlies have not lost in 14 games since star G Will Cherry returned to the starting lineup in mid-December after missing the first month of the season with a foot injury.

7 Creighton (20-5, 31) vs. 10 Minnesota (17-7, 10)...Both of these sides are dropping like rocks in recent weeks. Which is particularly worrying for Tubby Smith's Minnesota, which has fallen apart in the second half of the season before and could be in danger of doing so again, with losses in six of its last eight games. The Gophers are also just 5-6 in Big Ten play and will be giving the Selection Committee an excuse to ignore them if finishing below .500 in conference play. As for Creighton, it is in an earlier stage of descent, but 4 losses in its last 7 have dropped Doug McDermott and the Bluejays far away from protected seed territory.

At Kansas City...

3 Kansas (19-4, 9) vs. 14 Valparaiso (19-6, 88)...We've had Kansas on the top line for much of the season, but a current three-game losing streak has knocked the Jayhawks down a couple of rungs on the ladder. But not out of protected seed territory and a likely sub-regional assignment at the Sprint Center in nearby Kansas City...at least not yet. The Horizon race looks to be tilting in the direction of Valpo, which will get to host the conference tourney (as it did last year, when losing in the finale vs. Ray McCallum's Detroit) if it wins the loop's regular-season crown.

6 Wisconsin (17-7, 43) vs. 11 Saint Mary's (21-4, 54)...For a while we were wondering if Bo Ryan and Wisconsin might miss the Dance entirely; silly us, as the Badgers proved they belong in last Saturday's thrill-packed OT win over Michigan. Wiscy is now safely away from the cut line. Not so with Saint Mary's, although the Gaels have been surging with nine wins in a row. But with a very so-so RPI, the Gaels are probably not going to be able to breathe easier unless they win one of two upcoming showdowns at Moraga, first vs. Gonzaga on Feb. 14, and then in the Bracket Buster nine days later vs. Creighton.
WEST REGIONAL (Phoenix)

at Austin...

1 Miami-Florida (19-3, 2) vs. 16 Niagara (14-11, 123)...The biggest "mover" in recent weeks has been Jim Larranaga's Miami, still unblemished in ACC play and without a loss in 11 straight overall entering Wednesday's game at Florida State. The Canes would be a dead-bang certainty for the top line would the Dance be starting this week. As for Niagara, its once solid lead atop the Metro-Atlantic has all but disappeared, and that postseason tourney in Springfield, MA looks to be one of the most wide-open in the country. Jimmy Patsos' Loyola-Maryland, Jim Baron's Canisius, Tim Cluess' Iona, Sydney Johnson's Fairfield, and Kevin Baggett's Rider will all feel like they have a realistic shot in that event.

8 Memphis (20-3, 36) vs. 9 Missouri (17-6, 35)...The arrow is pointing up for Memphis, still unbeaten vs. C-USA foes this season and having likely cleared its biggest hurdle in loop play with Saturday's win at Southern Miss. Josh Pastner's guys also look to be the only league team in good shape for an at-large bid as well. Mizzou has had its problems on the road in its new SEC surroundings, but it is holding serve nicely in Columbia and should have no trouble landing comfortably on the safe side of the cut line on Selection Sunday.

At Dayton...

4 Ohio State (17-6, 17) vs. 13 Western Illinois (18-5, 138)...It was a tough week for Ohio State, but losses to top five foes Michigan (in OT) and Indiana are hardly demerits in the eye of the Selection Committee. What it has done to the Buckeyes, however, is leave them little room for error if they wish to stay as a protected seed and get this desirable sub-regional assignment in nearby Dayton, just 70 miles from Columbus. For the moment, we have pegged Western Illinois as the rep from the Summit League, but the Leathernecks are going to have plenty of competition (especially from South and North Dakota States) in the league tourney, contested in hostile territory at Sioux Falls.

5 Kansas State (19-5, 22) vs. 12 Indiana State (16-8, 40)/La Salle (16-6, 29)...Maybe all Bruce Weber needed was a change of scenery; Manhattan, KS isn't much to look at, but it's no worse than Champaign-Urbana, where Weber's act had run stale in recent years. Indeed, K-State's performance rates as one of the surprise developments in the Big 12 this season. We have moved surging Indiana State into the field, via the at-large play-in game route. The Sycamores have been building a pretty nice portfolio in recent weeks, however, with recent wins over Valley heavyweights Creighton and Wichita State having thrust ISU into a tie atop the league table entering this week. Pre-league wins in the Diamond Head Classic over Ole Miss and Miami-Florida (the Canes' last loss) will also get notice from the Selection Committee. Meanwhile, wins over Butler & VCU have La Salle in line for its first NCAA bid in 21 years.

At Salt Lake City...

2 Gonzaga (23-2, 12) vs. 15 Long Beach State (14-9, 111)...We gave serious consideration to placing Gonzaga on the top line; indeed, had the Zags not blown that game at Butler a few weeks ago, they might be a number one seed. If they keep winning in the next few weeks, they might get there yet. The Big West race took another turn this past week when Hawaii blew out loop leader Long Beach in Honolulu, evening their season series at one apiece. If they're going to have a rubber match in the conference tourney, however, remember that it will be on the mainland at the NHL Anaheim Ducks' Honda Center, not too far from the Beach campus.

7 Georgetown (17-4, 30) vs. 10 Illinois (17-8, 33)...The story here is the reappearance of Illinois, which we dropped out of the field for our last update. But recent wins over top-ranked Indiana, then avenging an earlier home loss to Minnesota by beating the Gophers at The Barn, have the Illini breathing again. Along with the Maui Classic title and a December win at Gonzaga, Illinois has plenty of ammunition for an at-large case. Georgetown looks in even more solid shape, although another soft pre-league slate hasn't helped the Hoyas' RPI.

At San Jose....

3 Arizona (20-3, 6) vs. 14 Stephen F. Austin (20-2, 77)...We're still not completely sold on Arizona, which confirmed our suspicions with a home loss to a so-so Cal side on Sunday. The Cats, who lost a game at the McKale Center to UCLA a few weeks ago, have also survived several close calls along the way. Not the most convincing example, if you ask us. As for the Nacogdoches, TX-based Lumberjacks from SFA, there are some who believe they could merit some at-large consideration should they blow the Southland Tourney, especially if they win their Bracket Buster game next week at Long Beach. They won't be an easy out if they make the Dance.

6 New Mexico (20-4, 3) vs. 11 La Tech (21-3, 45)...New Mexico's RPI suggests it ought to be in consideration for a protected seed, though in truth a sub-regional assignment in either San Jose or Salt Lake City would suit the Lobos just fine. Recent heavy road losses at San Diego State and UNLV suggest Steve Alford might be doing it with mirrors, and UNM is probably going to have to win the Mountain West Tourney in Las Vegas to get a top four slot. As for La Tech, along with Akron and perhaps Belmont, the Bulldogs are an accomplished mid-major that might warrant a Big Dance at-large look if they lose in the WAC Tourney, which is shaping up to be a pretty interesting event with surging New Mexico St., Denver, and Utah State also in the mix. Whatever, the new "it' coach could be the Bulldogs' Michael White, an Ole Miss alum who will be hard for AD Bruce Van De Velde to hold onto in the coming years.

Last four in: Indiana State, La Salle, Temple, North Carolina.
Last four out: Maryland, Iowa State, Baylor, UMass.
Next four out: St. John's, Charlotte, Boise State, Southern Miss.

[StarDust Bum]

Thursday's Road Tests

February 13, 2013


**Arizona at Colorado**

--These schools played a controversial thriller in Tucson earlier this season. As of Wednesday night, most betting shops had Arizona (20-3 straight up, 10-11 against the spread) installed as a 2.5-point favorite for the rematch.

--On Jan. 3, Colorado (16-7 SU, 13-8 ATS) was poised to hand Arizona its first loss of the season as a 12.5-point road underdog. However, Sabatino Chen’s 3-pointer that banked home at the buzzer was waved off even though replays indicated that Chen got the shot off in time. Therefore, the game went to overtime and Sean Miller’s team eventually captured a 92-83 win.

--Mark Lyons scored a game-high 24 points in the previous win over CU. The transfer from Xavier made all 10 of his attempts from the free-throw line, including a pair that forced the extra session. Kevin Parron added 16 points and eight rebounds for the winners. In the losing effort, Askia Booker scored 18 points and dished out five assists.

--Lyons is averaging team-highs in scoring (15.4 points per game) and assists (3.0 APG). He scored 16 points, making 4-of-7 shots from 3-point land, in Sunday’s stunning 77-69 loss to California as a 13-point home favorite. The Wildcats had won four in a row prior to the loss the Bears. Nevertheless, they are 8-3 and in a three-way tie for first place in the Pac-12 with Oregon and UCLA.

--Tad Boyle’s team has won nine of its 10 home games, posting a 5-3 spread record. The Buffaloes are 6-5 straight up in league play. They are in their first spot as home underdogs this year.

--Arizona is No. 9 in the RPI Rankings. The Wildcats are 5-2 SU against RPI Top 50 opponents, 9-3 against Top 100 foes.

--CU is 18th in the RPI Rankings, going 2-3 against the RPI Top 50, 7-6 against the RPI Top 100.

--Arizona owns a 4-3 spread record in seven games as a road favorite.

--The ‘under’ is 11-6-1 overall for Arizona even though it has watched the ‘over’ hit in three consecutive games. The ‘under’ is 5-2 in the Wildcats’ seven true road assignments.

--The ‘under’ is 9-5 overall for CU, 2-2 in its four home games with a total.

--Sportsbook.ag has 16/1 odds for Arizona to win the national championship. Colorado’s future number is 200/1.

--Tip-off is slated for 10:00 p.m. Eastern.

**Gonzaga at Saint Mary’s**

--As of Wednesday night, most books were listing Gonzaga (23-2 SU, 12-10-1 ATS) as a one-point favorite.

--Saint Mary’s (21-4 SU, 12-9-1 ATS) is unbeaten in 13 home games but is just 5-6 ATS. If the Gaels close as home underdogs, it will be a first for this season. In fact, they haven’t even been single-digit home favorites yet. Randy Bennett’s team has been favored by at least 12 (vs. Harvard in a 70-69 non-covering victory) in each home outing.

--Since losing 83-78 at Gonzaga on Jan. 10, Saint Mary’s has won nine consecutive games while going 5-3-1 versus the number. The Gaels are coming off a 74-64 win at San Diego as 10-point road ‘chalk.’ Matthew Dellavedova led the cause with 19 points, seven assists and three rebounds, while Brad Waldoe chipped in with 18 points on 8-of-9 shooting from the field.

--Dellavedova is one of the nation’s premier guards. The senior from Australia, who played with former Gaels’ star Patty Mills in this past summer’s Olympics, is averaging 15.9 points and 6.6 assists per game.

--Gonzaga has won six in a row since getting beaten at the buzzer at Butler on Jan. 19. The Bulldogs’ only other loss this year came vs. Illinois on Dec. 8.

--Gonzaga beat Loyola-Marymount 74-55 Saturday as a 24.5-point home favorite. Kelly Olynyk and Kevin Pangos led the way for the Bulldogs with 20 points apiece. Elias Harris added 16 points and 10 rebounds.

--Olynyk leads the ‘Zags in scoring (17.7 PPG), field-goal percentage (65.2%) and blocked shots (25). Harris is averaging 14.8 points and 7.2 rebounds per game, while Pangos averages 11.9 points and 3.5 assists per contest.

--Mark Few’s squad is 12th in the RPI Rankings. The Bulldogs are 4-2 against the RPI Top 50, 8-2 vs. Top 100 opponents.

--Saint Mary’s is ranked 49th in the RPI Rankings, going 0-1 against RPI Top 50 opponents and 3-2 vs. the RPI Top 100.

--Gonzaga has 18/1 odds to win the national title per Sportsbook.ag.

--The ‘under’ is 12-8 overall for Gonzaga, 7-1 in its last eight contests.

--Totals have been a wash for Saint Mary’s overall (8-8) and at home (4-4).

--ESPN2 will have the telecast at 11:00 p.m. Eastern.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

--Kentucky announced Wednesday morning that Nerlens Noel suffered a torn ACL in Tuesday’s loss at Florida and will miss the remainder of the season. Noel is scheduled to have surgery in 2-3 weeks when the swelling subsides. The 6-10 freshman will most likely be the No. 1 pick in this summer’s NBA Draft despite the injury. Noel finished the season averaging 10.6 points, 9.6 rebounds and 4.5 blocked shots per game.

--Despite Tuesday’s blowout loss at arch-rival Michigan St., Michigan remains the plus-450 ‘chalk’ to win the national championship at Sportsbook.ag. Florida, Miami and Indiana share 5/1 odds, while Duke is at 8/1. Louisville’s future number is 10/1, followed by Michigan St. and Syracuse, both of whom own 15/1 odds.

--With thoughts of making a profit through potential hedges during the NCAA Tournament, the most attractive future numbers in my opinion belong to Butler (40/1), Minnesota (60/1), VCU (60/1) and Wisconsin (80/1).

--As of Wednesday night, Stanford was listed as a nine-point home favorite vs. Southern Cal. ESPNU will provide television coverage Thursday night at 11:00 p.m. Eastern.

[Hao Bush]

Nice Wednesday, good job!