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**Udog** · 12-20-2012, 05:08 PM

NFL odds: Week 16 opening line report

Playoff pressure can bring out the best in some teams and cause others to crumble.

With just two weeks left in the NFL regular season, many of the Week 16 games have postseason implications. None more so than games involving the NFC East.

Three teams – New York, Dallas and Washington - sit tied atop the division at 8-6 and it looks like if any of those clubs want a shot at the division crown or the NFC wild card, they’ll need to win out in the final games of the schedule.

It’s no surprise that those three teams are favorites heading into their Week 16 contests. The Cowboys are 3-point favorites at home to New Orleans, the Redskins are 4-point faves in Philadelphia, and the Giants have moved to 1-point road chalk after opening as a pick in Baltimore.

“It absolutely plays into the lines,” Peter Korner, founder of the Nevada-based odds service The Sports Club, says about playoff pressure. “We overcompensate and you can see that in this week’s spreads.”

Perhaps the biggest overcompensation is the Dallas spread. Korner believes the Cowboys, who took an OT win from the Steelers Sunday, aren’t a deserving favorite. The Sports Club sent out Dallas -2 and some online books are offering that spread as big as -3.

“I think the wrong team is favored but you have to remember the point is to draw two-way action,” Korner told Covers. “It was a key win for the Cowboys and everyone saw it, but I expect there to be late money on the Saints. They’re loose and free, they play a loose-and-free style, and that makes them dangerous.”

As for the other two NFC East matchups, Korner says New York’s history of stepping it up in big games is the main reason they opened pick in Baltimore and have drawn the early money from bettors. The Giants suffered a 34-0 drubbing at the hands of the Atlanta Falcons Sunday, their fourth loss in the past six games.

In the case of Washington, Korner says they sent out the Redskins as 6-point favorites in Philly expecting Robert Griffin III to play after missing Week 15's win over Cleveland with a sprained knee. He also stands by the rookie quarterback in this high-pressure situation.

“RG3 is obviously the difference and the reason we sent out -6,” he says. “We’ve had some stud QBs come out this year, with Luck and Griffin. A QB is a QB and results are results, regardless of it they’re from a rookie.”

Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers (-4.5, 43.5)

The AFC North is another division with an unsettled playoff pecking order. The Steelers took a step back with their loss in Dallas Sunday while the Bengals walked over Philadelphia Thursday.

Korner says his oddsmakers came to the table with everything between Pittsburgh -1.5 to -7, eventually settling in the middle. Online shops opened as low as -3.5 but have since taken Steelers money pushing the spread to -4.5.

“I thought the early money would be on Cincinnati, admits Korner. “I don’t think it will run too far. Both teams need it which is perfect, we get the best from both teams. I see this being a tighter spread.”

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks (Pick)

This late-game NFC West showdown has multiple factors pouring into its opening odds.

- The Niners just took a game from the Patriots in New England while the Seahawks have hung an uncharacteristic 108 total points on their last two opponents.

- Seattle has dominated with the running game while San Francisco boasts the best run-stuffing defense in the land.

- The 49ers have a bid at the No. 1 seed in the conference while the Seahawks are trying to hang on to an NFC wild card ticket.

And then there’s CenturyLink Field in December. The extended forecast is calling for rain Sunday night.

Korner is happy both teams showed well on Sunday, making it tougher for bettors to get a grip on the odds. The Sports Club sent out Seattle as a 1-point favorite but Korner doesn’t expect the Niners to coast in the final weeks.

“I don’t see a letdown for this game,” he says. “They just went into New England and won. Who’s to say they can’t go into Seattle and win?”

**Udog** · 12-20-2012, 05:09 PM

Where the action is: NFL mid-week line moves

Playoff pushes and towel tossing teams make Week 16 a tough stretch of schedule for NFL bettors. We talk to Jeff Stoneback, sportsbook manager at the MGM Mirage in Las Vegas, about the biggest line moves on the board:

New Orleans Saints at Dallas Cowboys – Open: -3, Move: -1

Some online books have taken early action on the Saints, dropping the opening number to Dallas -1. The MGM Mirage is still dealing a field goal on the Cowboys, but Stoneback expects bettors side with the underdog by Sunday.

“That’s a tough game. The Saints have the capacity to play well while the Cowboys are in a must-win spot,” Stoneback told Covers. “If I had to guess, I’d have to think they’d take the points with the Saints.”

San Diego Chargers at New York Jets – Open: -3, Move: -1

New York has switched QBs for this second-last game on the sked, benching Mark Sanchez for Greg McIlroy. Stoneback says the move doesn’t impact the odds and actually believes it to be an upgrade.

“If this happened in Week 2 or 3, we’d say it definitely has an impact. But what (Sanchez) has shown, especially last week, there is no drop off,” Stoneback says. “He’s actually hurt the team. With him out, it’s probably better for the team.”

Minnesota Vikings at Houston Texans – Open: -7.5, Move: -9.5

MGM took some early sharp money on Houston, bumping their spread to -8.5. However, Stoneback says Minnesota has been a favorite of wise guys in recent weeks.

“Sharp money has shown up on the Vikings,” he says. “They bet them last week against the Rams and came in late on Minnesota against Chicago two weeks ago.”

Tennessee Titans at Green Bay Packers – Open: -11.5, Move: -14

Some online shops have Green Bay as high as a two-touchdown favorite but the early money at MGM has been limit bets on the Titans, taking that spread to -12.5 after opening at -13.

“It’s a double-digit spread with the price a little bit inflated because it’s the Packers at home,” says Stoneback. “Sharps come in on those double-digit dogs. It’s almost an automatic play with them.”

Cleveland Browns at Denver Broncos – Open: -11, Move: -13.5

Surprisingly, some of the early money on this game came in on Cleveland. But Stoneback isn’t sweating a line move at his book, knowing that the public will pile on Denver come Sunday afternoon.

“Sharps took the underdog but we’ll have plenty of money on the Broncos,” he says.

New York Giants at Baltimore Ravens – Open: Pick, Move: +2.5

Some online shops opened this game at a pick’em but action quickly dictated the line move in favor of the Giants. New York is in must-win mode, tied atop the NFC East, while Baltimore is already locked into a postseason spot despite its recent skid.

“Baltimore seems to be a in a bad funk right now and is going the wrong way,” says Stoneback. “The game is much more important to the Giants and I wouldn’t be surprised to see this go off at a field goal.”

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks – Open: -1, Move: +1

This spread is teetering between the two teams, moving to San Francisco -1 after its win in New England Sunday. Stoneback says the early sharp money is on Seattle but he’s hesitant to move because plenty of Niners money will show up before Sunday night.

**Udog** · 12-20-2012, 05:10 PM

NFL
Dunkel

Week 16

Atlanta at Detroit
The Falcons look to take advantage of a Detroit team that is coming off a 38-10 loss to Arizona and is 0-8 ATS in its last 8 games after allowing more than 30 points in its previous game. Atlanta is the pick (-3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Falcons favored by 10. Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-3 1/2). Here are all of this week's picks.

SATURDAY, DECEMBER 22

Game 101-102: Atlanta at Detroit (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 137.528; Detroit 127.657
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 10; 47
Vegas Line: Atlanta by 3 1/2; 51
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-3 1/2); Under

SUNDAY, DECEMBER 23

Game 103-104: Tennessee at Green Bay (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 123.006; Green Bay 137.230
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 14; 49
Vegas Line: Green Bay by 12 1/2; 46
Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (-12 1/2); Over

Game 105-106: Oakland at Carolina (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland 120.627; Carolina 139.370
Dunkel Line: Carolina by 18 1/2; 42
Vegas Line: Carolina by 8; 46
Dunkel Pick: Carolina (-8); Under

Game 107-108: Buffalo at Miami (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 128.855; Miami 131.755
Dunkel Line: Miami by 3; 47
Vegas Line: Miami by 4 1/2; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (+4 1/2); Over

Game 109-110: Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 136.522; Pittsburgh 132.496
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 4; 47
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 4; 43
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+4); Over

Game 111-112: New England at Jacksonville (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New England 137.369; Jacksonville 124.870
Dunkel Line: New England by 12 1/2; 45
Vegas Line: New England by 14 1/2; 49
Dunkel Pick: Jacksonville (+14 1/2); Under

Game 113-114: Indianapolis at Kansas City (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indianapolis 130.259; Kansas City 121.225
Dunkel Line: Indianapolis by 9; 45
Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 6 1/2; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Indianapolis (-6 1/2); Over

Game 115-116: New Orleans at Dallas (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 129.828; Dallas 135.004
Dunkel Line: Dallas by 5; 47
Vegas Line: Dallas by 1; 51 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (-1); Under

Game 117-118: Washington at Philadelphia (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 134.949; Philadelphia 130.476
Dunkel Line: Washington by 4 1/2; 41
Vegas Line: Washington by 6; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+6); Under

Game 119-120: St. Louis at Tampa Bay (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 132.615; Tampa Bay 129.003
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 3 1/2; 46
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay by 3; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+3); Over

Game 121-122: NY Giants at Baltimore (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Giants 139.885; Baltimore 133.812
Dunkel Line: NY Giants by 6; 43
Vegas Line: NY Giants by 1; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Giants (-1); Under

Game 123-124: Minnesota at Houston (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 125.974; Houston 140.439
Dunkel Line: Houston by 14 1/2; 48
Vegas Line: Houston by 7 1/2; 44
Dunkel Pick: Houston (-7 1/2); Over

Game 125-126: Cleveland at Denver (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 128.638; Denver 143.185
Dunkel Line: Denver by 14 1/2; 41
Vegas Line: Denver by 13; 44 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Denver (-13); Under

Game 127-128: Chicago at Arizona (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 133.175; Arizona 122.137
Dunkel Line: Chicago by 11; 41
Vegas Line: Chicago by 5; 36 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (-5); Over

Game 129-130: San Francisco at Seattle (8:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco 144.059; Seattle 138.183
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 6; 44
Vegas Line: Pick; 39
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco; Over

Game 131-132: San Diego at NY Jets (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego 126.857; NY Jets 129.929
Dunkel Line: NY Jets by 3; 36
Vegas Line: NY Jets by 1; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: NY Jets (-1); Under

**Udog** · 12-20-2012, 05:10 PM

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 16

Saturday, December 22

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ATLANTA (12 - 2) at DETROIT (4 - 10) - 12/22/2012, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in all games where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 since 1992.
DETROIT is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 0-10 ATS (-11.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 1-0 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 1-0 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Sunday, December 23

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TENNESSEE (5 - 9) at GREEN BAY (10 - 4) - 12/23/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TENNESSEE is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 32-19 ATS (+11.1 Units) in all games over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 32-19 ATS (+11.1 Units) in all lined games over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 149-107 ATS (+31.3 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
GREEN BAY is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in home games in December games over the last 3 seasons.
GREEN BAY is 51-28 ATS (+20.2 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
TENNESSEE is 39-19 ATS (+18.1 Units) in non-conference games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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OAKLAND (4 - 10) at CAROLINA (5 - 9) - 12/23/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
OAKLAND is 26-47 ATS (-25.7 Units) in December games since 1992.
OAKLAND is 29-64 ATS (-41.4 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
OAKLAND is 15-35 ATS (-23.5 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.
OAKLAND is 25-45 ATS (-24.5 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
CAROLINA is 47-25 ATS (+19.5 Units) in December games since 1992.
CAROLINA is 65-38 ATS (+23.2 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
CAROLINA is 44-22 ATS (+19.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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BUFFALO (5 - 9) at MIAMI (6 - 8) - 12/23/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 19-35 ATS (-19.5 Units) in a home game where the total is between 38.5 and 42 points since 1992.
MIAMI is 48-71 ATS (-30.1 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 3-2 against the spread versus BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 3-2 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CINCINNATI (8 - 6) at PITTSBURGH (7 - 7) - 12/23/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 109-143 ATS (-48.3 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
CINCINNATI is 56-86 ATS (-38.6 Units) versus division opponents since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 90-60 ATS (+24.0 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 46-23 ATS (+20.7 Units) as a home favorite of 3.5 to 7 points since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 7-16 ATS (-10.6 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 5-0 against the spread versus CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 5-0 straight up against CINCINNATI over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NEW ENGLAND (10 - 4) at JACKSONVILLE (2 - 12) - 12/23/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 16-7 ATS (+8.3 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 50-31 ATS (+15.9 Units) in December games since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 49-29 ATS (+17.1 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.
JACKSONVILLE is 5-15 ATS (-11.5 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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INDIANAPOLIS (9 - 5) at KANSAS CITY (2 - 12) - 12/23/2012, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS CITY is 1-1 against the spread versus INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
KANSAS CITY is 1-1 straight up against INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NEW ORLEANS (6 - 8) at DALLAS (8 - 6) - 12/23/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 5-13 ATS (-9.3 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 6-15 ATS (-10.5 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 31-49 ATS (-22.9 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
DALLAS is 1-0 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 1-0 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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WASHINGTON (8 - 6) at PHILADELPHIA (4 - 10) - 12/23/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
WASHINGTON is 27-47 ATS (-24.7 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 49-81 ATS (-40.1 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
PHILADELPHIA is 150-114 ATS (+24.6 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
PHILADELPHIA is 55-33 ATS (+18.7 Units) revenging a loss against opponent since 1992.
PHILADELPHIA is 3-10 ATS (-8.0 Units) in all games this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 3-10 ATS (-8.0 Units) in all lined games this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home games this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home lined games this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 3-2 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 3-2 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ST LOUIS (6 - 7 - 1) at TAMPA BAY (6 - 8) - 12/23/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 127-162 ATS (-51.2 Units) in all games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 127-162 ATS (-51.2 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 62-89 ATS (-35.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 92-126 ATS (-46.6 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 35-55 ATS (-25.5 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
TAMPA BAY is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) in December games over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons.
TAMPA BAY is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in the last 4 weeks of the regular season over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ST LOUIS is 1-0 against the spread versus TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
TAMPA BAY is 1-0 straight up against ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NY GIANTS (8 - 6) at BALTIMORE (9 - 5) - 12/23/2012, 4:25 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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MINNESOTA (8 - 6) at HOUSTON (12 - 2) - 12/23/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 21-9 ATS (+11.1 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 12-4 ATS (+7.6 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.
HOUSTON is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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CLEVELAND (5 - 9) at DENVER (11 - 3) - 12/23/2012, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) as a favorite this season.
DENVER is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points this season.
DENVER is 44-69 ATS (-31.9 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
DENVER is 29-48 ATS (-23.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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CHICAGO (8 - 6) at ARIZONA (5 - 9) - 12/23/2012, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CHICAGO is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in December games over the last 2 seasons.
CHICAGO is 11-28 ATS (-19.8 Units) in road games in the last 4 weeks of the regular season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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SAN FRANCISCO (10 - 3 - 1) at SEATTLE (9 - 5) - 12/23/2012, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN FRANCISCO is 19-34 ATS (-18.4 Units) in a road game where the total is between 38.5 and 42 points since 1992.
SEATTLE is 20-9 ATS (+10.1 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 20-9 ATS (+10.1 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) as an underdog over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in home games this season.
SEATTLE is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in home lined games this season.
SEATTLE is 16-6 ATS (+9.4 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 9-1 ATS (+7.9 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest this season.
SEATTLE is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in home games versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in home games in games played on turf this season.
SEATTLE is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in December games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 11-3 ATS (+7.7 Units) revenging a loss against opponent over the last 3 seasons.
SEATTLE is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 21-10 ATS (+10.0 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 21-10 ATS (+10.0 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
SEATTLE is 3-2 against the spread versus SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
SAN FRANCISCO is 4-1 straight up against SEATTLE over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SAN DIEGO (5 - 9) at NY JETS (6 - 8) - 12/23/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN DIEGO is 2-8 ATS (-6.8 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 this season.
NY JETS are 16-4 ATS (+11.6 Units) after playing on Monday night football since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY JETS is 1-0 against the spread versus SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons
NY JETS is 1-0 straight up against SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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**Udog** · 12-20-2012, 05:11 PM

NFL
Short Sheet

Week 16

Saturday, December 22, 2012

Atlanta at Detroit, 8:30 ET ESPN
Atlanta: 0-6 ATS after allowing 14 points or less
Detroit: 15-5 ATS off a loss by 28+ points

Sunday, December 23, 2012

Tennessee at Green Bay, 1:00 ET
Tennessee: 39-19 ATS vs. non-conference opponents
Green Bay: 6-1 Under off an ATS win

Oakland at Carolina, 1:00 ET
Oakland: 7-21 ATS off 3+ games scoring 17 points or less
Carolina: 6-0 Over off a non-conference game

Buffalo at Miami, 1:00 ET
Buffalo: 17-6 ATS away after allowing 35+ points
Miami: 8-1 Under as a favorite

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh, 1:00 ET
Cincinnati: 7-0 ATS away off an ATS win
Pittsburgh: 19-5 Over at home off BB losses

New England at Jacksonville, 1:00 ET
New England: 15-5 ATS in road games
Jacksonville: 1-8 ATS off BB Unders

Indianapolis at Kansas City, 1:00 ET
Indianapolis: 16-6 Over away off a road loss
Kansas City: 17-33 ATS at home after scoring 14 points or less

New Orleans at Dallas, 1:00 ET
New Orleans: 10-2 ATS off a home win
Dallas: 3-12 ATS in home games

Washington at Philadelphia, 1:00 ET
Washington: 12-4 ATS vs. division opponents
Philadelphia: 0-6 ATS in home games

St. Louis at Tampa Bay, 1:00 ET
St. Louis: 13-2 Under off ATS wins in 2 of their last 3 games
Tampa Bay: 0-6 ATS off 4+ losses

(TC) NY Giants at Baltimore, 4:25 ET
NY Giants: 24-10 ATS away after allowing 30+ points
Baltimore: 0-6 ATS at home off a loss

Minnesota at Houston, 1:00 ET
Minnesota: 2-10 ATS away off a win
Houston: 15-6 ATS as a favorite

Cleveland at Denver, 4:05 ET
Cleveland: 9-1 Under in December
Denver: 8-1 ATS as a favorite

Chicago at Arizona, 4:25 ET
Chicago: 0-6 ATS in December
Arizona: 27-13 ATS at home off BB Overs

(TC) San Francisco at Seattle, 8:30 ET NBC
San Francisco: 11-3 ATS off a road game
Seattle: 6-22 ATS off a win by 21+ points

(TC) San Diego at NY Jets, 1:00 ET
San Diego: 1-8 ATS after allowing 30+ points
NY Jets: 22-11 Over vs. conference opponents

(TC) = Time Change

**Udog** · 12-20-2012, 05:11 PM

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 16

First Post

Falcons (12-2) @ Lions (4-10)-- Atlanta had big win over Giants last week, but they've lost two of last three road games (win was 24-23 in Tampa); they're 2-3 as an away favorite, with road wins by 16-24-7-1-13 points. Detroit had hideous loss to the Cardinals last week, allowing two more return TDs. For season, Lions don't have a return TD; their opponents have nine. Detroit is 23-11 in its history against the Falcons, but 1-3 in last four; Atlanta is 3-2 in last five visits here. NFC South non-divisional road faves are 4-1 vs spread; NFC North underdogs are 3-5, 1-0 at home. Four of last five Atlanta games stayed under the total; six of last eight Detroit games went over.

Titans (5-9) @ Packers (10-4)-- Tennessee won rare Monday night appearance, now heads to frozen tundra on short week with nothing to play for, vs a Packer squad thats won three in row, eight of last nine, covering five of last six, but they did trail four of last five games at halftime, which is problem if laying 13 points. Titans won last three series games; they've won four of five visits to Lambeau, with last visit in '04. Tennessee is 3-3 as a road dog, covering last three on road; their road losses are by 28-24-23-5-4 points. AFC South road underdogs are 6-8 vs spread; NFC North home favorites are 6-10. Last five Green Bay games, four of last five Titan tilts stayed under the total.

Raiders (4-10) @ Panthers (5-9)-- Carolina showing signs of life, winning three of last four games after 2-8 start; they've run ball for 171.7 ypg last three weeks, as Newton's mobility has helped. Panthers are 1-4 vs spread as favorites; dogs are 10-4 vs spread in their games this year. Oakland snapped 6-game skid with a sloppy 15-0, TD-less win over rival Chiefs last week; they're 1-5 on road, with losses by 22-31-3-35-24 points. NFC South home favorites are 7-9 vs spread in non-divisional games; AFC West underdogs are 7-15-1, 4-9 on road. Teams split four series games; with visitor winning last two. Last four Oakland games stayed under total; three of last four Panther games went over.

Bills (5-9) @ Dolphins (6-8)-- Buffalo was +3 in turnovers, beat Miami 19-14 in Thursday night game five weeks ago, just its third win in last nine series games. Bills lost three of last four visits here, with losses by 9-28-27 points. Miami is 4-3 at home, 1-2 this year; since 2003, they're a ridiculously bad 9-33 vs spread as a home favorite (4-4 in last eight). Bills lost last three road games by 12-6-7; they're 2-4 as road underdog this year, and scored 13.8 ppg in four grass games. Dolphins lost five of last seven games, but they're last team to beat Seahawks. AFC East home teams are 3-6 vs spread in divisional games, 2-3 if favored. Four of Miami's last five home games stayed under the total.

Bengals (8-6) @ Steelers (7-7)-- Do-or-die for Steeler team that lost three of last four games, with underdog winning all four and covering last seven Steeler games. Bengals won/covered five of last six games; they've won five of last six on road, are 2-1 as road dogs this year. Cincy has +10 turnover ratio in last eight games, after being -7 in first six. Pitt (-2.5) ran ball for 167 yards, won 24-17 at Cincy in Week 7; Steelers outgained Cincy 431-185 in what was Bengals' third loss in row at time. Pitt won 10 of last 12 series games, winning last five by average of 13 points. Cincy lost four of last five visits here, with losses by 14-17-16-28 points. AFC North home teams are 4-3 in divisional games, 2-2 at home.

Patriots (10-4) @ Jaguars (2-12)-- New England can get first-round bye if they win last two games and Denver loses once, so they'll keep pedal to floor here, in game after they got waxed by 49ers. NE is 4-1 as road favorite this year, winning on road by 21-24-30-7 points, with loss at Seattle (not counting London game, a big win over Rams). AFC South home dogs are 6-5 vs spread in non-divisional games; AFC East favorites are 11-9 vs spread, 4-3 on road. 11 of last 12 Patriot games went over total; three of last four Jaguar games stayed under. Jax is 0-6 in games that went over total (3-3 vs spread), losing by average of 16 points- they are 1-5 as home underdogs, losing home games by 20-17-38-17-17-7 points.

Colts (9-5) @ Chiefs (2-12)-- Indy makes playoffs with win here, great story, but only one of its nine wins (27-10 at Jax) was by more than seven points, so laying lumber with them is iffy. Colts are 3-4 SU on road, covering only game as road fave. Chiefs gained total of 119 yards in ugly 15-0 loss at rival Raiders last week; they've lost 10 of last 11 games, scoring one TD on 22 drives in last two games, and that came on 80-yard run on first play two games ago. Indy won 10 of last 12 series games, five of last six here, but last visit here was in '04. AFC South non-divisional favorites are 6-2 vs spread, 1-1 on road; AFC West dogs are 7-15-1, 3-6-1 at home. Under is 5-2-1 in last eight Chief games.

Saints (6-8) @ Cowboys (8-6)-- Dallas is finding ways to win; they've won last three games and five of last six, scoring 22.3 ppg just in second half of those six games, but Cowboys are 1-6 vs spread when favored this year- since 2003, they are 8-36 vs spread as a home favorite. Saints lost three of last four games; they're 2-5 on road, 1-2 as road dog- they've won six of last seven series games, taking last three games played here, scoring 33 ppg. NFC East non-divisional favorites are 6-13 vs spread, 5-8 at home; NFC South underdogs are 10-6 vs spread, 10-3 on road. Five of Saints' seven road games, three of last four Dallas games went over the total. Underdogs covered last five Dallas games.

Redskins (8-6) @ Eagles (4-10)-- Washington outrushed Philly 169-80 in Week 11's 31-6 win, just their second win in last seven series games; they also averaged 11.6 ypa and were +3 in turnovers. Redskins are 4-3 in last seven visits here, and are on serious roll, winning/covering last five games after 3-6 start, and it hasn't mattered which rookie QB has played- they're 4-3 on road, scoring 38+ points in three of four wins. Eagles lost nine of last twn games, with only win coming on last playof games; all four of their wins are by 1 or 2 points. Home teams are 2-7 vs spread in NFC East divisional games this season, 1-2 if home dogs. Three of last four games for both teams went over total

Rams (6-7-1) @ Buccaneers (6-8)-- Tampa Bay got squashed 41-0 last week in Superdome; league trend this year has been for teams like that to bounce back in good form next week, but Bucs have now lost four games in row, giving up an average of 29.8 ppg. Rams laid egg at home vs Vikings last week, ending playoff hopes for this year; they've covered five of six true road games this season, going 2-0-1 SU in last three. Home teams won seven of last eight series games,with Bucs 5-1 in series since losing '99 NFC title game in St Louis- Rams lost last five visits here, by 10-3-12-1-21 points. Four of Bucs' last five games stayed under; six of Rams' last eight went over.

**Udog** · 12-20-2012, 05:12 PM

NFL

Week 16

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Trend Report
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Saturday, December 22

8:30 PM
ATLANTA vs. DETROIT
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Atlanta's last 5 games when playing Detroit
Atlanta is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games
Detroit is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Detroit is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Atlanta

Sunday, December 23

1:00 PM
WASHINGTON vs. PHILADELPHIA
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 6 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
Washington is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Philadelphia
Philadelphia is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Philadelphia is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Washington

1:00 PM
BUFFALO vs. MIAMI
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Buffalo's last 6 games on the road
Buffalo is 6-12 SU in its last 18 games when playing on the road against Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Miami's last 10 games

1:00 PM
MINNESOTA vs. HOUSTON
Minnesota is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games on the road
Minnesota is 3-5-1 ATS in its last 9 games
Houston is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Houston's last 6 games at home

1:00 PM
SAN DIEGO vs. NY JETS
San Diego is 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games when playing NY Jets
San Diego is 2-5 SU in their last 7 games when playing NY Jets
NY Jets are 2-4 SU in their last 6 games at home
NY Jets are 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games at home

1:00 PM
ST. LOUIS vs. TAMPA BAY
St. Louis is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Tampa Bay
St. Louis is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing Tampa Bay
Tampa Bay is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing at home against St. Louis
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tampa Bay's last 5 games when playing St. Louis

1:00 PM
NEW ORLEANS vs. DALLAS
New Orleans is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 6 of New Orleans's last 9 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Dallas's last 6 games
Dallas is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games

1:00 PM
NEW ENGLAND vs. JACKSONVILLE
New England is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games when playing Jacksonville
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New England's last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 6 games
Jacksonville is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games at home

1:00 PM
CINCINNATI vs. PITTSBURGH
Cincinnati is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games when playing Pittsburgh
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Cincinnati's last 6 games when playing Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Pittsburgh's last 9 games at home

1:00 PM
OAKLAND vs. CAROLINA
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Oakland's last 5 games
Oakland is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Carolina is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games at home
Carolina is 4-8 SU in its last 12 games

1:00 PM
TENNESSEE vs. GREEN BAY
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Tennessee's last 5 games
Tennessee is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Green Bay
The total has gone OVER in 16 of Green Bay's last 22 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Green Bay's last 6 games at home

1:00 PM
INDIANAPOLIS vs. KANSAS CITY
Indianapolis is 3-12 SU in its last 15 games on the road
Indianapolis is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games when playing Kansas City
Kansas City is 1-10 SU in its last 11 games
Kansas City is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games

4:05 PM
CLEVELAND vs. DENVER
Cleveland is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Denver
Cleveland is 5-15 SU in its last 20 games
The total has gone OVER in 18 of Denver's last 25 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Denver's last 7 games

4:15 PM
CHICAGO vs. ARIZONA
Chicago is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games
Chicago is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games
Arizona is 9-3 SU in its last 12 games at home
Arizona is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games when playing Chicago

4:25 PM
NY GIANTS vs. BALTIMORE
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of the NY Giants last 9 games on the road
NY Giants are 2-4 SU in their last 6 games on the road
Baltimore is 16-2 SU in its last 18 games at home
Baltimore is 16-7 SU in its last 23 games

8:30 PM
SAN FRANCISCO vs. SEATTLE
San Francisco is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Seattle
San Francisco is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Seattle
Seattle is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 14 of Seattle's last 20 games at home

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**Udog** · 12-20-2012, 10:13 PM

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 16

First Update

Giants (8-6) @ Ravens (9-5)-- Baltimore in freefall, losing last three games, while giving up 23-31-34 points; they should get lift from return of Ray Lewis- I'm not fond of teams who fire coordinators in December, especially when they replace guy with Jim Caldwell, who never called plays before. Ravens won three of last four games in seldom-played series. Giants lost four of last six games, including last three on road; they allowed average of 157 rushing yards over last three tilts. NFC East favorites are 6-13 vs spread, 1-5 on road; NFC North underdogs are 7-8, 3-3 at home. Five of last six Giant games stayed under total; last three Raven games went over. Next week's game is more critical for Baltimore.

Vikings (8-6) @ Texans (12-2)--Houston clinches home field thru AFC tourney with win here; they're 5-2 as home favorites this year, winning at home by 20-6-24-30-12-12 points (lost to Packers). Minnesota is 2-5 on road; they had three return TDs in their two wins- they're 2-3 as road underdogs this year. Vikings ran ball for 240-171-213 yards last three games, as he chases Dickerson's single season record. Vikings won both series meetings, 28-21/34-28ot. NFC North road underdogs are 2-5 vs spread in non-divisional games; AFC South home favorites are 5-1. Three of last four Viking games stayed under; four of last six Houston home games went over the total.

**Udog** · 12-20-2012, 10:16 PM

NFL poolies betting cheat sheet: Week 16

Check out our NFL poolies' cheat sheet for all your football wagering needs in condensed form. Quick-hitting betting notes on all of Week 15's action.

Atlanta at Detroit (3.5, 50.5)

Atlanta can secure home-field advantage throughout the conference playoffs with a triumph in the Motor City. The Falcons bounced back from a 10-point road loss to Carolina in a big way as they recorded a dominating 34-0 home win over the New York Giants last week. Atlanta ran more than it passed for just the second time this season, gaining 125 yards on 35 carries while attempting just 28 passes. Detroit is looking to snap its six-game losing streak. Things hit rock bottom for the Lions last Sunday, when they suffered a 38-10 loss in Arizona to the Cardinals. Detroit is 1-5 ATS in its last six overall.

Tennessee at Green Bay (-12.5, 46)

The Packers clinched the NFC North with last week's 21-13 win at Chicago and must win their final two games and get help in order to clinch the No. 2 seed in the NFC and the first-round bye. Wide receiver Jordy Nelson sat out again last week with a bad hamstring and is questionable Sunday. Tennessee is coming off a 14-10 victory over the New York Jets on Monday that ended a three-game losing streak. Since a Week 10 loss to Chicago, the Titans rank third in total defense (285.8 yards per game), and fourth giving up 17.6 points per game. The Packers are 5-1 ATS in their last six overall.

Oakland at Carolina (-9.5, 46)

The Panthers, who are just 2-5 at home, are attempting to end the campaign on a high note as they seek their third consecutive victory. Quarterback Cam Newton has been outstanding over the last four weeks. The Auburn product leads the league with a 113.1 passer rating in that span with nine touchdown passes and no interceptions. The Raiders snapped a six-game slide last Sunday with a 15-0 triumph over Kansas City in their home finale. Sunday's shutout against the Chiefs was the team's first blanking since 2002. Sebastian Janikowski provided all the offense, kicking a season-high five field goals. Oakland is 1-6 ATS in its last seven overall.

Buffalo at Miami (-4, 41.5)

The Dolphins are still in playoff contention after last week’s 24-3 win over Jacksonville, but will need a ton of help in order to play January football. Running back Reggie Bush racked up 104 yards on the ground in the victory– his first 100-yard effort since Week 2. The Bills will finish with a losing record for an eighth consecutive season after last Sunday’s 50-17 rout by Seattle. Buffalo, which yielded a season-low 184 yards in a 19-14 win over the Dolphins on Nov. 15, has become the eighth NFL team - and first since the 1986 Jets - to allow 45 points four times in one season. Miami has won three of four at home over Buffalo and is 4-1 ATS in its last five December games.

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (-4, 43.5)

The Bengals will try to keep their division title hopes alive - while eliminating the host Steelers from the playoff race entirely. A Cincinnati win Sunday would clinch a playoff spot while knocking the Steelers out of contention. The Bengals, who are winners of five of six after thumping Philadelphia 34-13 on Dec. 13, are well rested but have lost their past five against Pittsburgh. Cincinnati is allowing just 12.5 points per game over its last six – the best in the NFL in that stretch - while forcing 15 turnovers. The Steelers have numerous injuries to their secondary and will be without cornerback Ike Taylor (ankle) for a third straight game. The Bengals are 0-7-2 ATS in their last nine versus AFC North foes.

New England at Jacksonville (14.5, 50)

New England rallied from a 31-3 deficit a week ago to tie San Francisco but ultimately suffered a 41-34 setback to snap its seven-game winning streak. However, the Patriots racked up 407 yards of offense in the second half against the stout defense of the 49ers. The offense could get an added boost if TE Rob Gronkowski (forearm) suits up this week. The Jaguars have lost three straight, failing to cover in all three contests. Running back Maurice Jones-Drew (foot) is back practicing, but is a long shot to play Sunday.

Indianapolis at Kansas City (7, 41.5)

Indianapolis has won seven of nine but missed out on a chance to clinch a playoff berth with a 29-17 loss to the Texans last week. Quarterback Andrew Luck has completed only 46.1 percent of his passes in three games this month and has been intercepted nine times in his last five contests. The Chiefs gained a season-low 119 yards and recorded only seven first downs in a 15-0 loss at Oakland last week. Starting quarterback Brady Quinn is dealing with a rib injury but coach Romeo Crennel said Thursday he expects him to suit up against the Colts. Kansas City has recorded fewer than 10 points in four of its last five games. Indianapolis is 7-0 ATS in its last seven games following a loss.

New Orleans at Dallas (-1, 51.5)

The Cowboys are still on the outside of the NFC playoff picture looking in, but their chances improved dramatically after topping Pittsburgh in overtime last Sunday for their fifth win in six games. Cornerback Morris Claiborne expects to play Sunday after missing last week's victory over Pittsburgh with a concussion. Running back DeMarco Murray is also probable despite missing practice on Wednesday. Dallas is 3-0 since Murray returned from a foot injury that shelved him for six contests. The Saints posted a 41-0 home triumph over the Bucs last Sunday. Despite the shutout, New Orleans' defense still ranks last in the league as it has allowed an average of 446.2 yards per contest. The underdog is 7-0 ATS in their last seven meetings.

Washington at Philadelphia (6, 45.5)

Washington is tied with Dallas and New York for the NFC East lead but owns the tiebreaker over both teams. Backup quarterback Kirk Cousins led the Redskins to their fifth straight win - a 38-21 victory over the Browns last week in the absence of Robert Griffin III. Griffin (knee) was a full participant at practice Thursday and is expected to start against the Eagles. Philadelphia fell 34-13 to Cincinnati in its last effort, committing a season-high five turnovers in the process. Running back LeSean McCoy (concussion) was carted off in the final minutes of a 31-6 loss to the Skins on Nov. 18, but is expected to suit up Sunday. The Redskins are 5-0 ATS in their last five games overall.

St. Louis at Tampa Bay (-3, 44.5)

St. Louis saw its playoff chances all but snuffed out with last week's 36-22 home loss to Minnesota that snapped a three-game winning streak. The Rams, who had allowed only 42 points during its three-game winning streak, recorded a pair of sacks last week to add to their NFC-leading total of 41. Tampa Bay was once in the driver's seat for a playoff slot but has tumbled out of contention in the wake of a four-game losing streak, including a 41-0 mauling at New Orleans a week ago. The Bucs defense has been sturdy against the run but awful against the pass, ranking last in the league with 310.6 yards allowed per game. The Rams are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games.

Minnesota at Houston (-9.5, 45)

Vikings running back Adrian Peterson trampled the Rams for 210 yards and a score in last week's 36-22 victory, a result that kept Minnesota's playoff hopes alive. The Vikings will be in tough against a Texans team that owns the AFC's top seed and is coming off a 29-17 win over Indianapolis. Peterson has amassed 1,313 rushing yards in the last eight weeks - equaling Arian Foster's output for the entire season. Peterson is in the midst of the most incredible stretch of games by any running back in the history of football. A year removed from major knee surgery, the 27-year-old is just 294 yards away from breaking Eric Dickerson's single-season record of 2,105 set in 1985. The Texans are 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning record.

San Diego at N.Y. Jets (-1, 39)

New York's fleeting postseason hopes were dashed with another wretched offensive performance in Monday's 14-10 loss at Tennessee - a defeat that finally prompted coach Rex Ryan to pull the plug on Mark Sanchez and elevated third-stringer Greg McElroy to starting quarterback. San Diego flat-lined in a 31-7 home loss to Carolina and will miss the postseason for a third straight year. Adding to the misery were season-ending injuries to leading rusher Ryan Mathews (collarbone) and wide receiver Malcom Floyd (ankle). The Chargers are 1-6 ATS in their last seven meetings.

Cleveland at Denver (-13.5, 44.5)

Denver can move closer to earning a first-round bye in the playoffs by extending its winning streak to 10 with a victory over Cleveland, which has dropped nine straight meetings. The Broncos are coming off a 34-17 victory over the Ravens in a game that Peyton Manning threw for a season-low 204 yards. The Denver defense, which ranks fourth allowing 307.1 yards per game, held Baltimore to 56 rushing yards and scored on a pick-six. The Browns’ .217 all-time winning percentage against the Broncos is their lowest against any NFL team. But Cleveland is 4-1 ATS in its last five games.

Chicago at Arizona (5, 36.5)

The Bears' prolonged slump has left them likely needing victories in back-to-back road games with help in order to reach the playoffs. A 21-13 loss to Green Bay last Sunday dropped the Bears behind the competition in the race for the conference’s two wild-card spots. The defeat was also Chicago’s seventh in a row in the month of December. The Bears are averaging 14.2 points over their last six games after producing 29.5 per contest in their first eight. More pressure will be placed on running back Matt Forte this week after backup Michael Bush (ribs) was placed on injured reserve earlier this week. The Arizona defense leads the league with 22 interceptions, including snagging three picks in last week’s 38-10 win over Detroit. The Bears are 0-5 ATS in their last five December games.

N.Y. Giants at Baltimore (1, 47)

Baltimore will try to avoid its first four-game slide in five seasons when they host the Giants. Running back Ray Rice was held to just 38 yards in last week’s loss to the Broncos and now faces a New York stop unit allowing 123.7 rushing yards per game. The Giants were shutout for the first time in seven years in Sunday’s loss to the Falcons, but could be getting some key starters back after running back Ahmad Bradshaw (knee), cornerback Prince Amukamara (hamstring) and safety Kenny Phillips (knee) all sat out against the Falcons. All three have returned to practice in some fashion this week. The Ravens are 0-6 ATS in their last six December games.

San Francisco at Seattle (Pick, 39)

San Francisco’s top-ranked scoring defense could be in for a major test Sunday night against the suddenly high-scoring Seattle offense. There’s plenty at stake as the Seahawks can clinch their second playoff berth in three seasons and the 49ers are one win shy of securing their second consecutive NFC West title. After setting a team record for points in a 58-0 win over Arizona on Dec. 9, the Seahawks became the first team in 62 years to score at least 50 points in consecutive weeks with their rout of Buffalo last week. San Francisco has won four straight in this divisional matchup following a 13-6 victory on Oct. 18, but Seattle is a perfect 6-0 at home this season. The Seahawks are also 5-0 ATS in their last five versus a team with a winning record.

**Udog** · 12-21-2012, 09:51 PM

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 16

All Remaining Games

Browns (5-9) @ Broncos (11-3)-- Denver is 5-0 against new Browns, winning three games played here by average score of 31-12; Patriots' loss last week opens door for Broncos to get #2 seed in AFC/first round bye. Denver won nine games in row (7-2 vs spread); they're 4-1 as home favorites, winning home games by 12-31-20-7-8 points. Cleveland had 3-game win streak snapped by Washington last week; they've covered four of last five games. Browns are 2-3 as underdogs on road this year, losing away games by 7-7-14-4-3 points. AFC West favorites are 7-6 vs spread, 4-4 at home; AFC North underdogs are 7-8, 4-5 on the road. Under is 6-1-1 in last eight Cleveland games, 2-5 in Broncos' last seven.

Bears (8-6) @ Cardinals (5-9)-- Lot of retired people from Illinois retire to the Arizona desert, so Bears should have backing here, especially since Cardinals are 1-9 in last 10 games and in desperate need of a competent QB. Chicago lost five of last six games, scoring 17 or less points in all five losses. Bears are 3-3 away from home, with all three wins by 16+ points- they're 7-17 without Urlacher in lineup. Arizona is 3-1 as a home underdog; dogs are 10-4 in their games this year- they're 4-3 SU at home, with home losses by 3-21-14 points. NFC North faves are 10-14 vs spread, 4-4 on road; NFC West underdogs are 14-6 vs spread, 5-1 at home. Bears still can make the playoffs, but they bettwe win this game.

Chargers (5-9) @ Jets (6-8)-- McElroy gets first NFL start for Jets after hideous Monday night loss in Tennessee; both teams here are a mess, so much so that the game was taken off Sunday Night Football, switched to 1:00 start. Chargers lost eight of last ten games after 3-1 start; they scored 13 or less points three of last four games. Jets are actually 3-2 in last five games, scoring 7-17-10 points in last three games- they have very little home field edge, they've been dysfunctional. AFC West underdogs are 7-15 vs spread, 4-9 on road. AFC East favorites are 11-9 vs spread, 7-6 at home. Three of last four San Diego games stayed under the total. Jets won five of last seven series games, lost three of last five played here.

49ers (10-3-1) @ Seahawks (9-5)-- No one is hotter than Seattle, scoring 58-50 points last two weeks; they're 6-0 SU at home, and were underdogs in three of six games, but they've lost last four games with 49ers, losing 13-6 (+7.5) back in Week 7 on a Thursday night at Candlestick. Niners lost two of last three visits here; they scored 13-3-13 points in their three losses this year. Seattle allowed 17-0-17 points in last three games. After being +28 in turnovers during 13-3 year in 2011, 49ers are just +8 this year. Unerdogs are 6-2-1 vs spread in NFC West divisional games this season. Four of last five 49er games, five of last six Seattle games went over the total. 49ers playing for division title, first round bye.

**Udog** · 12-21-2012, 09:56 PM

NFL

Saturday, December 22

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Falcons at Lions: What bettors need to know
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Atlanta Falcons at Detroit Lions (3.5, 50.5)

The Atlanta Falcons are on the verge of clinching the top seed in the NFC. The Detroit Lions are just looking to end their dismal season on a high note when the teams collide at Ford Field on Saturday night. NFC South champion Atlanta can secure home-field advantage throughout the conference playoffs with a triumph in the Motor City. The Falcons are wrapping up the road portion of their regular season but have lost two of their last three away from home.
Detroit enters the contest looking to snap its six-game losing streak. Things hit rock bottom for the Lions on Sunday, when they suffered a 38-10 loss in Arizona to the Cardinals, who were coming off their ninth consecutive defeat - an embarrassing 58-0 drubbing at the hands of Seattle. Detroit has not won since posting a 31-14 victory at Jacksonville on Nov. 4.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE: Falcons -3.5, O/U 50.5.

ABOUT THE FALCONS (12-2): Atlanta bounced back from a 10-point road loss to Carolina in a big way as it recorded a dominating 34-0 home triumph over the New York Giants on Sunday. The Falcons ran more than they passed for just the second time this season, gaining 125 yards on 35 carries - not including three kneel-downs by their quarterbacks - while attempting just 28 passes. They ran 37 times and passed on 29 occasions in a victory over Philadelphia on Oct. 28. Matt Ryan broke two of his franchise records Sunday. Ryan has now thrown for 4,202 yards on 369 completions through 14 games. He had 4,177 passing yards last season and completed 357 passes in 2010.

ABOUT THE LIONS (4-10): After winning 10 games last season, Detroit will be hard-pressed to record half as many victories this campaign. After facing Atlanta, the Lions host the Chicago Bears, who are very much in contention for a playoff spot. Coach Jim Schwartz is not planning on conceding anything despite his team's downward spiral. "You have something to prove every week regardless of winning streak, losing streak, what happened the previous week," he said. "People are competitive, people have pride. People have confidence in themselves. I think that's what helps people bounce back from stuff like this." Four of Detroit's last five losses have been by seven points or less.

TRENDS:

* Under is 5-0 in the last five meetings in Detroit.
* Under is 4-1 in Falcons’ last five games overall.
* Lions are 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall.
* Falcons are 1-4 ATS in their last five games following an ATS win.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Lions WR Calvin Johnson needs 182 yards to break Hall of Famer Jerry Rice's single-season record of 1,848 receiving yards.

2. Ryan is the only QB in Falcons history to throw for more than 4,000 yards in consecutive seasons. He is 33-4 at home and has won his last 11 starts at the Georgia Dome.

3. After throwing 41 touchdown passes last year, Detroit QB Matthew Stafford has only 17 this season.

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**Udog** · 12-21-2012, 09:58 PM

NFL

Saturday, December 22

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Tale of the tape: Falcons at Lions
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Take a quick glance at the tale of the tape for Saturday night’s showdown between the Atlanta Falcons and Detroit Lions.

Offense

The Falcons have been held under 20 points only once this season, that coming in a winning effort back on November 4th against the Cowboys. They scored in all four quarters en route to a 34-0 win over the Giants last Sunday. Michael Turner has re-established himself as a key cog in recent weeks, scoring a touchdown in five consecutive games. Since throwing five interceptions in Week 11 against Arizona, Matt Ryan has tossed seven touchdowns compared to only two interceptions in the last four games.

Detroit is coming off one of its worst offensive showings of the season, putting up only 10 points in a blowout loss to the Cardinals last Sunday. Prior to that, the Lions had scored at least 20 points in seven consecutive games. Calvin Johnson racked up 121 receiving yards last week, but was held out of the end zone for the second straight game. Mikel Leshoure has scored at least one touchdown in four of Detroit’s last four contests.

Edge: Atlanta

Defense

Atlanta gave up 30 points in its last road game in Carolina two weeks ago, but responded with a shutout of the defending Super Bowl champions back at home last Sunday. The Falcons have been wildly inconsistent defensively, giving up 31, 19, 23, 13, 30, and 0 points in their last six games overall. Their weakness has been against the run, where they allow five yards per rush on the road this season.

Speaking of problems defending the run, the Lions are giving up 4.9 yards per rush at home. Detroit has been absolutely torched lately, allowing at least 24 points in six straight games. With that being said, the Lions have still managed to outgain four of their last five opponents in terms of total yardage. They held the Falcons to 23 points in a losing effort right here at Ford Field last season.

Edge: Atlanta

Special teams

The Falcons should have a field day returning punts against a Lions special teams unit that allows a whopping 14.2 yards per return this season. The problem is, Atlanta has only managed 7.3 yards per return in that department. Falcons kicker Matt Bryant is one of the best in the business, but hasn't been quite as steady as he was earlier in the season, connecting on 31-of-36 field-goal attempts to date.

Detroit is averaging below the league average in terms of both kickoff and punt returning, and won't catch any sort of break against a Falcons special teams unit that performs better than the league average in coverage. Atlanta is allowing only 7.0 yards per punt return, and 21.3 yards on kickoffs. Veteran Lions kicker Jason Hanson has missed only four of 32 field-goal attempts, but one of those misses came on perhaps his biggest kick, in overtime against the Texans on Thanksgiving Day.

Edge: Atlanta

Word on the street

“I thought we set the tempo early with our run game and it goes hand-in-hand when you’re able to run the football." Falcons head coach Mike Smith on his team returning to its roots by focusing on its ground game against the Giants last Sunday.

"You know, all we need is to have one play from every guy that we didn't have last week. You know, Calvin's going to have his, but every guy has to have a play that's made." Lions offensive coordinator Scott Linehan speaking about the top-heavy nature of his receiving corps.

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**Pitt37** · 12-22-2012, 06:22 PM

Sticky please?

**Udog** · 12-23-2012, 11:16 AM

NFL

Sunday, December 23

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Saints at Cowboys: What bettors need to know
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New Orleans Saints at Dallas Cowboys (-1, 51.5)

The Dallas Cowboys still are on the outside of the NFC playoff picture looking in, but their chances improved dramatically after topping Pittsburgh in overtime last Sunday for their fifth win in six games. Dallas goes for its fourth consecutive victory this Sunday when it hosts the enigmatic New Orleans Saints. The Cowboys trail Washington in the NFC East despite sharing the same record but can capture the division title by winning their remaining two games, with the finale being a showdown with the Redskins in the nation's capital.

New Orleans' roller-coaster season has it needing a miracle to reach the playoffs for the fourth straight season. The Saints rebounded from an 0-4 start to even their record after 10 contests, but they lost their next three games before posting a 41-0 home triumph over Tampa Bay last Sunday. Despite the shutout, New Orleans' defense still ranks last in the league as it has allowed an average of 446.2 yards per contest.

TV: 1 p.m. ET, FOX.

LINE: The Cowboys opened as high as -3 and have been bet down to as low as -1 at some books. The total opened at 52 points and has been bet down to 51.5.

CONSENSUS: 54 percent of Covers Consensus picks are on New Orleans while 75 percent are on the over.

ABOUT THE SAINTS (6-8, 7-7 ATS): Quarterback Drew Brees leads the NFL with 36 touchdown passes and 4,335 passing yards. He needs 665 yards to reach the 5,000-mark for the third time in his career. Brees threw for 307 yards and four TDs against Tampa Bay, giving him an NFL-record 17 games with at least 300 yards and four scoring strikes. Darren Sproles has been a major contributor out of the backfield since 2011 as he leads all NFL running backs with 146 catches and 13 receiving touchdowns in that span.

ABOUT THE COWBOYS (8-6, 6-8 ATS): Cornerback Morris Claiborne expects to play Sunday after missing last week's victory over Pittsburgh with a concussion. Running back DeMarco Murray also expects to face the Saints despite missing practice on Wednesday. Dallas is 3-0 since Murray returned from a foot injury that shelved him for six contests. Quarterback Tony Romo has thrown 12 touchdown passes and only three interceptions over the last six games. Linebackers DeMarcus Ware (11.5) and Anthony Spencer (10) are the first pair of Cowboys to reach double digits in sacks in the same season since 2007.

TRENDS:

* Saints are 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings.
* Underdog is 7-0 ATS in their last seven meetings.
* Saints are 11-5 ATS in their last 16 games in Week 16.
* Cowboys are 8-17 ATS in their last 25 games in December.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Cowboys WR Dez Bryant has caught a touchdown pass in each of his last six games.

2. The road team has won each of the last four meetings, while the Saints have captured six of the last seven overall.

3. Dallas TE Jason Witten is six receptions shy of breaking the single-season record for a tight end of 102 set in 2004 by Tony Gonzalez.

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Announcement

NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 16 (Saturday, December 22 - Sunday, December 23)

NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 16 (Saturday, December 22 - Sunday, December 23)

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