NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 16 (Saturday, December 22 - Sunday, December 23)

[Udog]

NFL

Sunday, December 23

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Giants at Ravens: What bettors need to know
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New York Giants at Baltimore Ravens (+1, 47)

After enjoying a view from the penthouse of their respective divisions for most of the season, both the New York Giants and Baltimore Ravens are hearing company knock at the door. The Ravens will look to snap a three-game skid and clinch their second straight AFC North title on Sunday when they host the Giants. Although Baltimore owns a one-game lead over Cincinnati and has already secured a postseason position, it sure didn't look like a playoff team following a 34-17 setback to Denver last week.

While the Ravens' performance left a lot to be desired, the Giants' was downright pitiful in a 34-0 loss to Atlanta. New York's fourth setback in six games - coupled with victories by Washington and Dallas - allowed for a three-team logjam to rear its ugly head atop the NFC East. Making matters worse for Tom Coughlin's club is that it no longer controls its own destiny for the division title.

TV: 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX.

LINE: This game opened as low as a pick and action on the Giants moved the line to as high as -3. The total moved from 47.5 to 47.

CONSENSUS: 62 percent of Covers Consensus picks are on New York while 51 percent is on the over.

WEATHER: The forecast is calling for clear skies and temperatures in the high 30s. Winds are expected to blow SW at 6 mph.

ABOUT THE GIANTS (8-6, 6-7-1 ATS): New York can seize a postseason spot by winning its final two games - that much is simple. An NFC East title will require a little help, as the Redskins and Cowboys will each need to lose a game as well. Health concerns are on the forefront for the Giants, who hope to see the return of Ahmad Bradshaw (knee/foot), although Coughlin has already said that is a medical decision. A porous defense also plagues New York, which is ranked 28th overall and against the pass.

ABOUT THE RAVENS (9-5, 5-8-1 ATS): Although Pittsburgh's misstep versus Dallas last week allowed Baltimore entry into the postseason party, one can understand that the Ravens may not feel like dancing at the moment. Joe Flacco has committed six turnovers (three interceptions, three fumbles) during the team's losing skid - and didn't fare too well versus the Giants on Nov. 16, 2008. Flacco, who was then a rookie, threw for just 164 yards with one touchdown and two interceptions in New York's 30-10 victory.

TRENDS:

* Over is 3-0-1 in the last four meetings.
* Giants are 38-18-1 ATS in their last 57 road games.
* Ravens are 0-6 ATS in their last six games in December.
* Over is 4-0 in Ravens' last four home games.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Giants WR Victor Cruz honored 6-year-old Jack Pinto by visiting his family on Tuesday. Pinto was one of 20 children killed in the shooting at Sandy Hook Elementary School in Newtown, Conn.

2. With John Harbaugh at the helm, the Ravens are an impressive 9-0 at home against NFC teams.

3. Baltimore has won two of the three regular-season meetings between the clubs - although most remember its 34-7 trouncing of New York in Super Bowl XXXV.


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[Udog]

NFL

Sunday, December 23

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Sunday Night Football: 49ers at Seahawks
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San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks (Pick, 39)

The San Francisco 49ers can wrap up the NFC West Division title on Sunday but they'll have to end an impressive home streak for the second time in as many weeks to accomplish it. The 49ers will look to pull off an impressive cross-country daily double when they visit the Seattle Seahawks, who still have hopes of overtaking San Francisco for the division crown. The 49ers ended New England's 21-game December home winning streak with a 41-31 victory last week and now have to take on a Seahawks team that is 6-0 at CenturyLink Field. Seattle has won three straight overall and five of six, and another victory Sunday would pull them within a half-game of San Francisco for the division lead.

TV: 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC.

LINE: Seattle opened as a 1.5-point underdog at some books but has since been bet up to a pick. The total opened at 40.5 and has been bet down as low as 38.5.

CONSENSUS: 54 percent of Cover Consensus picks are on Seattle while 57 percent is on the over.

WEATHER: The forecast is calling for a 48 percent chance of showers with temperatures in the high 30s. Winds are expected to blow south at 5 mph.

ABOUT THE 49ERS (10-3-1, 9-5 ATS): Colin Kaepernick improved to 4-1 as a starter by throwing a career-high four touchdown passes as San Francisco secured a playoff berth against the Patriots. The Niners bolted to a 31-3 lead but had to stave off a stirring comeback after the Patriots reeled off 28 consecutive points to tie the game. Kaepernick responded by throwing his second TD pass to Michael Crabtree, who had seven catches for 107 yards and has 23 receptions over the past three games. San Francisco allowed 520 yards to the Patriots but forced four turnovers and recorded three sacks. The 49ers won a defensive duel with Seattle in Week 7, limiting the Seahawks to 251 yards and getting a season-high 131 yards from Frank Gore in a 13-6 victory.

ABOUT THE SEAHAWKS (9-5, 10-4 ATS): Seattle's offense has erupted in the past two weeks, following a 58-0 beating of Arizona with a 50-17 thrashing of Buffalo to become the first team in 62 years to score 50 points in consecutive weeks. Rookie Russell Wilson was brilliant against the Bills, throwing for 205 yards and a TD and rushing for 92 yards and three scores. Wilson was shut down by the 49ers in the first meeting, throwing for a season-low 122 yards, but he has thrown 11 touchdowns against one interception in his last six games. Running back Marshawn Lynch has gone over 100 yards despite limited duty in each of the past two weeks to give him eight 100-yard games this season, including 103 yards against the Niners.

TRENDS:

* Under is 4-1-1 in the last six meetings in Seattle.
* Home team is 5-2 ATS in their last seven meetings.
* 49ers are 23-9-1 ATS in their last 33 games overall.
* Seahawks are 40-19-2 ATS in their last 61 home games.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. San Francisco has won four straight meetings against the Seahawks, including a 19-17 victory at Seattle on Christmas Eve last season.

2. The 49ers and Seahawks rank 1-2 in the league in fewest points allowed at 15.6 apiece.

3. Gore has the two highest single-game rushing totals in franchise history (212 and 207 yards). Both have come against Seattle.


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[Udog]

NFL weather watch: Temperatures plummet in Week 16

Now that it’s officially winter, factoring weather into your handicapping will become even more important. Four games are projected to be played at or near the freezing mark Sunday.

"Teams that are used to bad weather tend to play better in bad weather, and bad teams from warm weather sites tend to give sub-par efforts in hostile, cold environments late in the season," cautions Covers Expert Teddy Covers.

Find out if weather will impact your wagers in Week 16 of the NFL season:

Tennessee Titans at Green Bay Packers (-12.5, 46)

Site: Lambeau Field

Forecasts are calling for frigid temperatures in the low-20s with partly cloudy skies. Winds will blow out of the north at 5 mph.

Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs (7, 41.5)

Site: Arrowhead Stadium

Forecasts are calling for temperatures around the freezing mark with partly cloudy skies. Winds will blow out of the north at 4 mph.

Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles (6, 45.5)

Site: Lincoln Financial

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the high-30s with partly cloudy skies. But winds will blow out of the west at 11 mph.

Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.5, 42.5)

Site: Heinz Field

Forecasts are calling for temperatures around the freezing mark with cloudy skies. Winds will blow out of the SSW at 7 mph.

San Diego Chargers at New York Jets (-1, 39)

Site: MetLife Stadium

Forecasts are projecting temperatures around the freezing mark with partly cloudy skies. Winds will blow out of the west at 10 mph.

San Francisco 49ers at Seattle Seahawks (Pick, 39)

Site: CenturyLink Field

Forecasts are projecting temperatures in the high-30s with a 45 percent chance of rain. Winds will blow out of the SSE at 5 mph.

[Udog]

Where the action is: NFL Week 16 line moves

Playoff implications and lack of motivation litter NFL Week 16. We talk with online sportsbook BetDSI.eu about the biggest line moves on the board.

Minnesota Vikings at Houston Texans (-8, 45)

Houston has been hit hard and often by the public. The sharp opinion is also backing the Texans, albeit lightly pushing the line to its current -8 value. The teaser action on this game is high as is the bet count at a current 3-to-1 ratio in favor of the Texans. This is one of those games that will make a nice weekend for the books if Minnesota can win outright.

Indianapolis Colts at Kansas City Chiefs (+7, 41.5)

This has been a completely public dominated affair with the bet count and money count both in favor of the colts at 6-to-1 and 7-to-1 ratios. Sharps have not chimed in on this game and probably won’t.

New York Giants at Baltimore Ravens (+2.5, 47)

The Giants, as usual, are attracting public money on the over. There is a sharp opinion leaning towards the under here but not enough to invert the bet versus amount bet positions. The side is seeing about an 8-to-1 money wagered count in the Giants favor with teaser action going their way as well. This game has been a public-driven position with no real sharp opinion on this side.

Green Bay Packers at Tennessee Titans (+12.5, 44.5)

Sharps have backed the Titans at double-digit spread values. The Packers have a public backing to the tune of a 5-to-1 advantage in terms of bet count and a 2-to-1 advantage in terms of money wagered.

San Diego Chargers at New York Jets (-3, 37.5)

There is a sharp-versus-public contrast with the public driving a 3-to-1 bet count in favor of the Chargers and the sharps driving a 2-to-1 wager volume advantage in favor of the down-and-out Jets. Sharp action has driven the line down hard in this unattractive matchup.

Other Week 16 Notes:

This week there are not a lot of sharp-versus-public contrasts. The Week 16 card has seen the sharps backing totals with the under 44/44.5 for the St Louis-Tampa Bay matchup and the over 36 in the Chicago-Arizona game.

[Udog]

Monday's Trends and Indexes - 12/24 (NBA, NCAAB, Misc.)

Not again!!!! Wrong thread.

[Kaptain]

have a good/safe holidays U DOG.....take care and thanks for all you do.

[jt4545]

Merry Christmas U-Dog, again thanks for all the great info, be safe and God Bless