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Wednesday's Trends and Indexes - 12/19 (NBA, NCAAB, Misc.)

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  • #16
    Football lines that make you go hmmm...

    The Seattle Seahawks averaged just over 16.5 points through the first seven games of the NFL season, culminating in a 13-6 loss to the San Francisco 49ers that played well under the 37.5-point total in Week 7.

    Since that season-low in points, Seattle has found its stride offensively. Over the last seven games, the Seahawks are averaging 33.4 points, highlighted by outpourings of 58 and 50 points in their last two games.

    From Weeks 1 to 7, Seattle totaled 116 points and posted a 1-6 over/under mark. From Weeks 8 to 15, it’s totaled 234 points and has topped the number in all but one of those games.

    Things come full circle when Seattle hosts the 49ers this Sunday. Instead of reflecting the Seahawks’ new gear on offense, the Week 16 total isn’t too far from Week 7’s number.

    Books opened with a total of 40.5 points for Sunday night’s NFC West grudge match and early action has dropped that to 39.5 as of Tuesday.

    Sure, Seattle is a run-heavy offense going up against the NFC’s premier rushing defense, but San Francisco has also hit the boosters on offense, especially with QB Colin Kaepernick under center.

    The Niners, who went 2-5-1 over/under in their first eight games, have finished above the total in five of their last six outings – averaging 28 points in that span (compared to 23.6 points in the first eight weeks).

    One thing’s for sure, we’ll see more than 19 total points when these rivals butt heads Sunday night.

    Here are some other odds making football bettors go “hmmm…” heading into the weekend:

    NFL

    Atlanta Falcons at Detroit Lions (+4, 50.5)


    Perhaps the only thing Detroit has to play for Saturday is Calvin Johnson’s pursuit of the single-season receiving record. It sure as hell looked like that last week.

    The Lions passed the ball 50 times – 17 of those in Johnson’s direction – and helped the stud receiver post his seventh straight 100-yard receiving game, which tied the NFL record. Johnson needs to average 91 yards over the final two games to break Jerry Rice’s mark of 1,848 set in 1995.

    Atlanta, which just pitched a shutout against Eli Manning and the Giants Sunday, will be dropping everyone – linebackers, cheerleaders, waterboys, folding chairs – into coverage Saturday night.


    NCAAF

    Washington Huskies at Boise State Broncos (-5.5, 46.5)


    When you think bowl season, you can’t help but think of Boise State. The Broncos stole our hearts with their stunt plays against Oklahoma in the 2007 Fiesta Bowl and have been a postseason staple ever since.

    But when you penciled in your bowl season must-see list this December did BSU make the cut? Not likely. The Broncos have been tossed aside like an ugly-ass Christmas sweater and find themselves playing in Las Vegas for the third straight year on Dec. 22. That exclusion has more to do with Boise State’s style of play than its solid 10-2 record.

    The Broncos have traded in the trick plays and wedding proposals for grimy, smash-mouth defense – not exactly the style of play that sells this time of year. That dramatic transition made BSU one of the best under bets early in the season.

    Oddsmakers opened the total for the Las Vegas Bowl at 46 and that has jumped a touch to 46.5. But with fans from both BSU and Washington trickling into Las Vegas this week, you can expect the majority of them to play their team and the over, hoping for an exciting shootout Saturday night.

    Washington is coming off an embarrassing overtime loss to rival Washington State in the final game of the schedule, giving up 31 points to a Cougars squad that ranked 108th in scoring (20.4 points per game). The Huskies will have no doubt spent much of their downtime tightening the bolts on the stop unit.

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