NCAAF Trends and Indexes - Week 14 (Thursday, November 29 - Saturday, December 1)

[Udog]

NCAAF

Saturday, December 1

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Alabama vs. Georgia: What bettors need to know
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Alabama vs. Georgia (7.5, 50)

A berth in the BCS Championship Game against Notre Dame is at stake when No. 2 Alabama and No. 3 Georgia clash in Saturday’s SEC title game in the Georgia Dome in Atlanta. The Crimson Tide are making their eighth appearance (3-4) in the game, most of any SEC West team, while the Bulldogs are making their fifth (2-2). Alabama leads the nation in points allowed (9.3) and total defense (233.7). The Bulldogs rank 17th in points allowed (17.7) but have been especially stingy the last five games, allowing an average of 8.6 points. Two Georgia defensive backs proclaimed this week that they have the nation’s top defense, providing Alabama some bulletin-board material.

TV: 4 p.m. ET, CBS.

LINE: Alabama -7.5, O/U 50. The Crimson Tide opened as 8.5-point favorites at most books.

ABOUT ALABAMA (11-1, 7-1 SEC): Seeking their third national title in four years, the Tide are dominant on defense and balanced on offense. Quarterback AJ McCarron (25 touchdown passes, two interceptions) spreads the ball around to a talented group of targets led by freshman wide receiver Amari Cooper (45 catches, 767 yards, eight touchdowns), but the wideout corps took a hit last week when Kenny Bell broke his leg against Auburn. That might prompt coach Nick Saban to pull the redshirt off freshman Chris Black. Running backs Eddie Lacy and T.J. Yeldon have combined for 1,848 rushing yards and 24 touchdowns. They run behind the nation’s top offensive line, which is anchored by center Barrett Jones. The senior is a finalist for the Lombardi Award and Outland Trophy.

ABOUT GEORGIA (11-1, 7-1): This is arguably Georgia’s best team in coach Mark Richt’s 12-year tenure. Quarterback Aaron Murray leads the nation in passing efficiency (177.2) and has 89 career touchdown passes, tied for second in SEC history. The three-year starter opted not to talk to the media this week, possibly an indicator he’s tired of explaining his struggles against elite defenses. For Murray to exploit Alabama’s beatable secondary like LSU’s Zach Mettenberger did, freshmen running backs Todd Gurley and Keith Marshall must keep the Tide honest. They’ve combined for 1,858 rushing yards and 22 touchdowns. Outside linebacker Jarvis Jones (24 career sacks), linebacker Alec Ogletree (team-high 87 tackles in only eight games) and safety Bacarri Rambo (16 career interceptions) lead a defense loaded with playmakers.

TRENDS:

* Crimson Tide are 6-0 ATS in their last six neutral site games.
* Bulldogs are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.
* Under is 6-0 in Bulldogs’ last six games overall.
* Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Alabama leads the series 36-25-4 and won the most recent meeting 41-30 in Athens in 2008.

2. Gurley’s 14 rushing touchdowns are one shy of Georgia’s freshman record, set by Herschel Walker in 1980.

3. Alabama is plus-14 in turnover margin, Georgia plus-9.


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[Udog]

NCAAF

Saturday, December 1

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Florida St. vs. Georgia Tech: What bettors need to know
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Florida State vs. Georgia Tech (14, 61)

Fortunately for Florida State and Georgia Tech, neither team needed a win last week to reach Saturday’s ACC Championship Game in Charlotte, N.C. Both teams are coming off disappointing losses to their in-state rivals, with Florida State losing 37-26 to Florida and Georgia Tech falling 42-10 against Georgia. The Yellow Jackets won the ACC Coastal Division despite three conference losses, while the Seminoles blew any chance of reaching the BCS title game when they committed five turnovers in their loss to Florida. The winner advances to the Orange Bowl on New Year's Day, possibly against the Big East champion. Florida State leads the all-time series 12-9-1, with the last four meetings decided by a combined 16 points.

TV: 8 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE: Florida State -14, O/U 61.

WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the mid-50s with partly cloudy skies. Winds will be light out of the SE.

ABOUT FLORIDA STATE (10-2, 7-1 ACC): The Seminoles are led by the nation's fourth-most efficient passer in quarterback EJ Manuel, who needs 33 passing yards to reach 3,000 this season. The 6-5 senior threw a season-high three interceptions in the loss against Florida. The Seminoles boast the nation’s second-best defense, allowing 249.42 yards per game, but they’ll be without senior defensive end Cornellius (Tank) Carradine for the rest of the season. Carradine, who leads the Seminoles with 80 tackles, suffered a torn anterior cruciate ligament in his right knee against the Gators. The secondary is led by cornerback Ronald Darby, who was named the ACC’s top defensive freshman.

ABOUT GEORGIA TECH (6-6, 5-3): The Yellow Jackets rank third in the nation in rushing at 323.3 yards per game, with senior guard Omoregie Uzzi leading an impressive offensive line. Senior quarterback Tevin Washington has 18 rushing touchdowns this season, and the team is hoping to get leading rusher Orwin Smith back after he missed last week’s game against Georgia with a sprained right ankle. Smith, who leads the ACC with an average of nine yards per carry, expects to practice this week and play in the title game. The Yellow Jackets are not as strong on the other side of the ball, where they rank 84th nationally in scoring defense while allowing an average of 31 points.

TRENDS:

* Over is 3-0-1 in Seminoles’ last four games overall.
* Seminoles are 0-2-2 ATS in their last four meetings.
* Yellow Jackets are 4-0 ATS in their last four conference games.
* Over is 5-1 in Yellow Jackets’ last six games following a loss.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Georgia Tech has lost five straight games against nationally ranked teams.

2. Florida State defensive coordinator Mark Stoops was named the University of Kentucky's new coach Tuesday, but will remain with the Seminoles at least through Saturday’s game.

3. The Yellow Jackets have requested a bowl-eligibility waiver from the NCAA in case they lose Saturday and fall to 6-7, which would make them ineligible for a bowl game.


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[Udog]

NCAAF

Saturday, December 1

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Nebraska vs. Wisconsin: What bettors need to know
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Nebraska vs. Wisconsin (3.5, 48.5)

Wisconsin played a significant role in ushering No. 12 Nebraska into the Big Ten Conference prior to the start of last season. Now, with a Rose Bowl berth on the line Saturday, the Badgers are the only obstacle that remains in the way of the Cornhuskers winning their first Big Ten conference championship. Wisconsin athletic director Barry Alvarez – a Nebraska graduate – was a key figure in brokering talks with the Big Ten for the Cornhuskers, easing their transition from the Big 12 in the process. In only its second season in the Big Ten, Nebraska will play for its 44th conference championship overall against the Badgers. Wisconsin, winner of the inaugural Big Ten championship last season, finished third in the Leaders Division, but is appearing in this game only because Ohio State and Penn State are ineligible for postseason play this season.

TV: 8:17 p.m. ET, Fox.

LINE: Nebraska -3.5, O/U 48.5.

WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the low-50s with partly cloudy skies. Winds will blow out of the south at 13 mph.

ABOUT NEBRASKA (10-2, 7-1 Big Ten): The Cornhuskers, playing in their first conference title game since winning the Big 12 in 1999, lead the conference in total offense (460.9 yards per game), rushing (252.2) and rank second in scoring (35.4). They should also get a boost from the fresh legs of Rex Burkhead, the team’s leading rusher from last season who has missed six games this year because of knee injuries. Burkhead returned from a four-game absence last Friday and rushed for 69 yards and a touchdown in Nebraska’s 13-7 victory over Iowa.

ABOUT WISCONSIN (7-5, 4-4): The Badgers have dropped three of their past four games, but all three were in overtime. In fact, all five of Wisconsin’s losses this season were by seven points or less and have come by a combined 19 points. Wisconsin is led by running back Montee Ball, who rushed for 90 yards and three touchdowns the Badgers’ 30-27 loss at Nebraska on Sept. 29. Ball set a FBS record last week with his 79th career touchdown in the team’s 24-21 setback at Penn State.

TRENDS:

* Under is 8-0 in Cornhuskers’ last eight neutral site games.
* Over is 4-1 in Badgers’ last five vs. a team with a winning record.
* Cornhuskers are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four vs. a team with a winning record.
* Over is 7-1 in Badgers’ last eight games following a loss.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Nebraska is in the midst of a six-game winning streak, its longest such same-season run since 2001.

2. Ball is 162 yards shy of becoming the 17th player in FBS history to rush for 5,000 yards in a career.

3. The Huskers were the only team to score more than 26 points against the Badgers this season.


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[Udog]

College football betting weather watch: Week 14

Oklahoma State at Baylor (5, 87.5)

Site: Floyd Casey Stadium

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the mid-70s with mostly cloudy skies. Winds will blow out of the south at 13 mph.

Oklahoma at TCU (5.5, 60)

Site: Amon G. Carter Stadium

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the low-70s with partly cloudy skies. Winds will blow out of the south at 14 mph.

Central Florida at Tulsa (-2.5, 54)

Site: Skelly Field at H.A. Chapman Stadium

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the mid-70s with partly cloudy skies. Winds will be strong out of the south at 20 mph.

Middle Tennessee at Arkansas State (-10.5, 62.5)

Site: Liberty Bank Stadium

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the mid-60s with partly cloudy skies. Winds will blow out of the south at 14 mph.

Boise State at Nevada (8.5, 59)

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the mid-50s and a 50 percent chance of rain. Winds will gust out of the south at 23 mph.

Cincinnati at Connecticut (4.5, 40.5)

Site: Rentschler Field

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the mid-30s with a 40 percent chance of snow. Winds will blow out of the east at 5 mph.

South Alabama at Hawaii (-6.5, 52.5)

Site: Aloha Stadium

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the mid-70s with a 55 percent chance of rain. Winds will blow out of the south at 7 mph.