NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 12 (Thursday, November 22 - Monday, November 26)

[Udog]

NFL

Sunday, November 25

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Sunday Night Football: Packers at Giants
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Green Bay Packers at New York Giants (-3, 50.5)

The past two Super Bowl champions will square off when the New York Giants and the Green Bay Packers try to protect their division title hopes Sunday night at MetLife Stadium. The Giants are coming off a bye week and have lost two straight, but they're still lead the mediocre NFC East. Green Bay might have relinquished its spot atop the NFC Central - depending on Chicago's outcome against Minnesota on Sunday afternoon - by the time the prime-time showdown arrives, but the Packers will be in good shape in the wild card race, regardless.

The Packers have won six of the past seven regular-season meetings, including a 38-35 road win last December. But the Giants spoiled Green Bay's bid for a second consecutive Super Bowl title last January, winning 37-20 in Green Bay en route to winning the title itself.

TV: 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC.

LINE: New York -3. O/U: 50.5.

WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures around the freezing mark and mostly cloudy skies. Winds will blow out of the WSW at 6 mph.

ABOUT THE PACKERS (7-3): After a bit of a slow start, quarterback Aaron Rodgers has heated up as the Packers have won five straight and six of seven. He leads the NFL with a 107.3 rating and has 27 touchdown passes against six interceptions. The Packers haven't been able to mount much of a run game, but they're more likely to attack the Giants through the air, as New York ranks 25th against the pass and surrendered 415 passing yards against Dallas in Week 8. Green Bay's defense will be shorthanded with cornerback Charles Woodson out with a broken collarbone and linebacker Clay Matthews (hamstring) listed as questionable.

ABOUT THE GIANTS (6-4): New York looked like a real threat to defend its title as recently as three weeks ago, but the flaws have been exposed in consecutive losses. The offense stalled in a 24-20 loss to Pittsburgh in Week 9, and four turnovers were their undoing in a 31-13 loss at Cincinnati in Week 10. Eli Manning has gone three games without a touchdown pass, but he has a strong record against the Packers. He has passed for at least 300 yards and three touchdowns in the past two meetings with Green Bay, including last year's playoff win.

TRENDS:

* Packers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.
* Giants are 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.
* Over is 5-0 in their last five meetings.
* Underdog is 5-1 ATS in their last seven meetings.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Manning needs two touchdowns passes to tie Phil Simms (199) for the most in franchise history.

2. The Packers are 25-0 when Rodgers starts and has a rating of 115 or higher. He has a 121.2 rating in two regular-season starts against the Giants.

3. The Giants are 10-0 when RB Ahmad Bradshaw has at least 100 rushing yards. Bradshaw (foot) is listed as questionable.


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[Udog]

NFL weather watch: Chance of snow in Cleveland

Minnesota at Chicago (-6.5, 38.5)

Site: Soldier Field

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the high-30s with partly cloudy skies. Winds will blow out of the west at 10 mph.

Oakland at Cincinnati (-9.5, 50.5)

Site: Paul Brown Stadium

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the low-40s with partly cloudy skies. Winds will blow out of the SSW at 13 mph.

Pittsburgh at Cleveland (1, 34.5)

Site: Cleveland Browns Stadium

Forecasts are calling for temperatures around the freezing mark with a 20 percent chance of snow. Winds will blow out of the SSW at 17 mph.

[Udog]

Where the action is: Sunday's NFL line moves

We talked to Mike Perry, oddsmaker for UWIN.com, about the flow of action coming in on Sunday’s NFL games.

Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Open: Pick, 48, Move: -1, 51

If the conference-leading Atlanta Falcons hope to continue their winning ways, they'll have to derail one of the hottest teams in the league when they visit the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in a matchup of the top two clubs in the NFC South. Some books even had Tampa Bay as the favorite earlier in the week.

“We opened this game a pick ‘em and now have this one Atlanta -1.5,” says Perry. "And 86 percent of the money is on the Falcons.”

The Bucs have played over the total in seven consecutive games and bettors have driven the number up to 51 after it opened at 48.

San Francisco 49ers at New Orleans Saints - Open: Pick, Move: +1

Niners coach Jim Harbaugh is mum on who his starting QB will be for this game, but numerous reports suggest Colin Kaepernick will be under center on Sunday after his impressive outing last week.

“We are using Niners -1 now and 60 percent of the money is on New Orleans,” notes Perry. “I think it’s a good thing for San Francisco to use Kaepernick. He provides them with more of a dual threat (run and pass) on offense.”

Seattle Seahawks at Miami Dolphins – Open: +1, Move: +3

Seasoned bettors know the Seahawks are almost a sure bet at raucous CenturyLink Field. But Seattle is proving itself on the road this season too.

“Bettors definitely have more faith in Seattle on the road this season,” according to Perry. “The Seahawks have covered in two of their last three on the road and five of six overall. Despite those numbers, 85 percent of the action is on Miami -3.”

Green Bay Packers at New York Giants – Open: -1, 49, Move: -3, 51

This marquee matchup has been getting all kinds of attention from a betting perspective, but it’s not just the spread that has bettors excited about this one.

“Packers/Giants will be the biggest game of the week from a volume (action) perspective,” notes Perry. “The Giants are currently at the opening number of -2.5 here and the total has gone from 49 to 51.5. Around 80 percent of the action is on the Packers, but the over (90%) has also been a popular bet.”

[Udog]

NFL
Short Sheet

Sunday, November 25

Oakland at Cincinnati, 1:00 ET
Oakland: 3-14 ATS away vs. AFC North opponents
Cincinnati: 15-5 Over vs. conference opponents

Pittsburgh at Cleveland, 1:00 ET
Pittsburgh: 2-9 ATS away vs. conference opponents
Cleveland: 23-9 ATS at home with a total of 32.5 to 35 points

Buffalo at Indianapolis, 1:00 ET
Buffalo: 13-4 Over as an underdog
Indianapolis: 6-16 ATS at home off ATS wins in 5 or 6 of their last 7 games

Denver at Kansas City, 1:00 ET
Denver: 2-10 ATS off 3+ games scoring 30+ points
Kansas City: 7-0 Under at home off a home game

Tennessee at Jacksonville, 1:00 ET
Tennessee: 28-12 ATS after gaining 175+ rushing yards
Jacksonville: 21-6 Over at home off BB division games

Minnesota at Chicago, 1:00 ET
Minnesota: 1-8 ATS off a home win
Chicago: 13-4 Over at home after playing MNF

Atlanta at Tampa Bay, 1:00 ET
Atlanta: 13-5 Under off a SU win
Tampa Bay: 6-1 ATS as an underdog

Seattle at Miami, 1:00 ET
Seattle: 9-2 ATS off a SU win
Miami: 9-1 Under off 3+ Unders

Baltimore at San Diego, 4:05 ET
Baltimore: 16-6 ATS after gaining 200 total yards or less
San Diego: 1-11 ATS off an Over

San Francisco at New Orleans, 4:25 ET
San Francisco: 5-18 ATS after allowing 200 total yards or less
New Orleans: 11-0 ATS in the second half of the season

St. Louis at Arizona, 4:25 ET
St. Louis: 2-9 ATS off a home game
Arizona: 24-11 ATS at home off a loss by 6 points or less

(TC) Green Bay at NY Giants, 8:30 ET NBC
Green Bay: 12-3 ATS off a road win
NY Giants: 2-8 ATS off BB SU losses as a favorite


Monday, November 26, 2012

(TC) Carolina at Philadelphia, 8:40 ET ESPN
Carolina: 19-8 Under off a division home loss
Philadelphia: 0-6 ATS vs. conference opponents


(TC) = Time Change

[Udog]

NFL

Monday, November 26

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Monday Night Football: Panthers at Eagles
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Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia Eagles (2.5, 40.5)

Two teams with lofty aspirations at the onset of the season will meet on Monday night with little on the line - aside from the potential employment of their respective head coaches. The Philadelphia Eagles will look to snap their six-game losing skid when they welcome the Carolina Panthers to the City of Brotherly Love. Long-time coach Andy Reid has been taken to task in the local newspapers and sports talk shows after the Eagles went through the motions in a 31-6 loss to NFC East-rival Washington on Sunday.

Carolina squandered an 11-point lead with five minutes remaining in regulation en route to a 27-21 overtime loss to NFC South rival Tampa Bay. The loss prompted many in the local media to pepper coach Ron Rivera with questions about his job security. With former general manager Marty Hurney getting the boot earlier in the season, Rivera will likely need a strong finish to improve his standing.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE: Panthers -2.5 O/U: 40.5

WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the high-30s with partly cloudy skies. Winds will blow out of the west at 5 mph.

ABOUT THE PANTHERS (2-8): Cam Newton has come under fire during his sophomore season - both for his performance and his perceived indifference to it all. The former Heisman Trophy winner is struggling, but could find the waters smooth against a battered Eagles pass defense. Newton has formed a nice bond with tight end Greg Olsen, who has scored in two of his last three games versus Philadelphia.

ABOUT THE EAGLES (3-7): With the outcome of last Sunday's game no longer in doubt, LeSean McCoy carried the ball in the waning moments and suffered a concussion that could sideline him versus the Panthers. McCoy and quarterback Michael Vick have yet to practice this week and will likely watch rookies Bryce Brown and Nick Foles continue in their place. Foles tossed interceptions on his first two possessions versus Washington and the game quickly unraveled.

TRENDS:

* Over is 6-1-1 in Eagles’ last eight home games.
* Over is 4-1-1 in Eagles' last six Monday games.
* Panthers are 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings.
* Eagles are 0-5 ATS in their last five games overall.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Rivera was a linebackers coach under Reid in Philadelphia from 1999-2003. In addition, Carolina defensive coordinator Sean McDermott held the same post with the Eagles after Jim Johnson passed away in 2009.

2. Philadelphia has defeated Carolina in three straight since falling to the Panthers in the 2004 NFC Championship game.

3. Should McCoy sit out, Brown would make his first start since his senior year in high school.


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[Udog]

NFL

Monday, November 26

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Tale of the tape: Panthers at Eagles
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Offense

Cam Newton has come under fire during his sophomore season - both for his performance and his perceived indifference to it all. The former Heisman Trophy winner is struggling, but could find the waters smooth against a battered Eagles pass defense. Newton has formed a nice bond with tight end Greg Olsen, who has scored in two of his last three games versus Philadelphia. The Panthers are an uncharacteristic 16th in rushing yardage after racking up more yards on the ground than any team in the NFL since 2008.

With the outcome of last Sunday's game no longer in doubt, LeSean McCoy carried the ball in the waning moments and suffered a concussion that will sideline him versus the Panthers. McCoy and quarterback Michael Vick (concussion) will watch rookies Bryce Brown and Nick Foles continue in their place. Foles tossed interceptions on his first two possessions versus Washington and the game quickly unraveled after that. In addition, wide receiver Jason Avant (strained hamstring) and running back Chris Polk (sprained toe) also will not play against the Panthers.

Edge: Panthers


Defense

Panthers DE Greg Hardy, who has seven sacks this season, is dealing with an undisclosed illness and is considered questionable. Linebacker Jordan Senn is doubtful with an ankle injury for a stop unit that ranks in the middle of the pack in most defensive categories.

The Eagles' pass defense has surrendered 11 touchdown passes and hasn’t recorded an interception over the past four weeks. Opposing QBs have rung up a gaudy 143.6 passer rating against Philadelphia over that span.

Edge: Panthers


Special teams

After firing special teams coach Brian Murphy and replacing him with Richard Rodgers, the Panthers’ special teams struggled again Sunday in the loss to Tampa Bay. The unit failed on a fake punt attempt, and Captain Munnerlyn lost a fumble on a punt return in the contest. After making his first seven attempts this season, including a 5-for-5 performance at Chicago, kicker Justin Medlock has missed his last three field-goal attempts.

The Eagles don't have a kickoff return longer than 31 yards or a punt return longer than 20 yards this season. Punter Mat McBriar is tied for fifth in the league in with a 48.5-yard gross average, but the special teams unit as a whole has been downright awful in Philadelphia and it doesn’t look like things will improve this season.

Edge: Tie. Both teams are equally as bad.


Word on the street

“A lot of the players on defense have been turned over since I left, so I won’t have as great a feel for their defensive personnel as I would have. But as far as a general feel for what the atmosphere is going to be like and what they like to do, yes.” – Panthers defensive coordinator Sean McDermott after being asked if his previous experience serving on the Philadelphia coaching staff will give his defense an advantage Monday night.

“These guys are all competitors and that’s one of the inherent problems with concussion management — they want to play. They know the consequences and everything, but they want to play. We know he’s anxious to go out there and play but we have to be careful with these guys.” – Eagles trainer Rick Burkholder on Michael Vick’s concussion.


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