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**Udog** · 11-21-2012, 09:28 PM

NFL odds: Week 12 opening line report

Your sweat pants are washed and pressed. Sixty percent of your fridge is home to a 20-pound half-frozen turkey. And you just tossed a few extra bucks into your sportsbook bankroll. It could only mean one thing: Thanksgiving is almost here.

The NFL is serving up triple helpings of action on Turkey Day, starting with Houston at Detroit at 12:30 p.m. ET, followed by Washington at Dallas at 4:15 p.m. ET, and finally New England at New York at 8:20 p.m. ET.

“Traditionally, we’re high on favorites with the Thanksgiving games. Everyone is home and everyone is betting,” Peter Korner, founder of the Nevada-based odds service, The Sports Club, told Covers. “This year, the games are a little more competitive but we’re still high on the favorites.”

Houston Texans at Detroit Lions (+3, 49)

Korner was baffled by what he saw at some of the online shops, when early spreads had Houston favored by only three points. The Texans were nearly knocked off by the lowly Jaguars Sunday but Houston – at 9-1 SU – is still one of the best teams in the NFL.

“Detroit is just 4-6 and not the team everyone expected this season,” says Korner, who sent out a suggested spread of Houston -6. “I don’t understand why this came out at three. Come Thursday, who do you think everyone is going to be playing?”

Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys (-3.5, 47)

The Cowboys, coming off a nail-biting overtime win against Cleveland, turn around to face a classic rival on Thanksgiving Day. The Sports Club sent out Dallas -4.5 while early lines offshore opened with America’s Team as a 3.5-point home fave.

“Washington is a live dog here,” says Korner. “That win was great for Dallas and the Cowboys do have their following, but I don’t think (the spread) will go either way. It should settle in around three.”

New England Patriots at New York Jets (+5.5, 49)

The Sports Club sent out a suggested spread of New England -7 for this AFC East battle, but the injury to star TE Rob Gronkowski (out 4-6 weeks with broken forearm) has dropped the spread as low as -5.

Korner says big money could be controlling this line, waiting to see how low it can go before buying back New England.

“Whoever is controlling this move definitely doesn’t want New England -7.5 come Thursday,” he says. “I think it went down because of Gronk (who Korner says is worth a point to the spread), and he’s a difference maker. But it’s a good excuse to take this line down. There won’t be any Jets money coming in Thursday.”

Green Bay Packers at New York Giants (-1, 49.5)

Online books opened New York as a slim home favorite in this rematch of the NFC Divisional showdown from last year. However, Korner disagrees with making the Giants the favorites and expects this line to easily move to Green Bay before Sunday.

“I was the only one of our guys who had Green Bay favored,” he says. “The Giants aren’t playing well, Eli hasn’t been sharp, and this is a revenge spot for the Packers. One bet can move this spread over to Green Bay.”

**Udog** · 11-21-2012, 09:28 PM

NFL Thanksgiving Day betting cheat sheet

Thanksgiving is about taking a break to reflect with family and friends, but it’s also a time to get some tasty bets down on NFL action.

If you’ve been too busy jumping through the Thanksgiving hoops to handicap Thursday’s slate - don’t worry. Our NFL Thanksgiving Day cheat sheet comes to the rescue like gravy on dry turkey.

Houston Texans at Detroit Lions (+3, 50.5)

The Texans are coming off a near-upset to Jacksonville Sunday and visit the Lions for their first Thanksgiving Day game in franchise history. Detroit has dropped back-to-back games and hasn’t fared well on Thanksgiving Day in recent years, going 0-8 SU and ATS since 2004.

Detroit will be without WR Titus Young, who is being benched for behavior issues, leaving the Lions very thin at receiver. Veteran wideout Nate Burleson is already out for the season, allowing opponents to double-up on star WR Calvin Johnson.

Tight end Brandon Pettigrew could see more passes his way and RB Mikel Leshoure may have to shoulder a heavier load on the ground, in order to take pressure off QB Matt Stafford Thursday.

Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys (-3.5, 48)

This classic NFC East rivalry has been dominated by the underdog in recent seasons, with the pup going 22-6 ATS in the past 29 meeting between the Redskins and Cowboys. Dallas won both encounters with Washington last season but failed to cover in those – and the last four meetings with the Skins overall.

The Cowboys are another Thanksgiving Day mainstay and - unlike the Lions - they have thrived on the holiday, going 8-3 ATS on Thanksgiving since 2001. That goes against Dallas’ current ATS slide at home, where it has failed to cover in its last seven home games overall, including last week’s OT win against the Browns.

Washington rookie QB Robert Griffin III won’t be in an unfamiliar atmosphere at Cowboys Stadium Thursday. During his college career at Baylor, the former Heisman winner played twice in the $1 billion venue. The Redskins have lost all three trips to “Jerry’s World” and are 0-6 SU all-time versus Dallas on Thanksgiving Day.

New England Patriots at New York Jets (+7, 48)

No wonder this spread is back up to a touchdown after dipping as low as 5.5 earlier in the week. The road team is 20-8-1 ATS in the last 29 meetings between these clubs, including New York’s near upset of New England at Gillette Stadium in Week 7.

The Patriots won’t have tight end Rob Gronkowski for this Thanksgiving Day game but fellow TE Aaron Hernandez could return to action after missing time with an ankle injury. New England could hand the bulk of the playbook over the rushing tandem of Stevan Ridley and Shane Vereen, who have quietly given the Pats the fifth-best ground attack in the NFL (142.9 yards per game).

New York’s defense has been gashed on the ground this season, allowing foes to rumble for 141.7 yards an outing – 30th in the league. Gang Green allowed the Rams to run for 124 yards on just 20 carries in last week’s win in St. Louis (6.2 yards per carry), and watched New England rush for 131 yards in Week 7. The Patriots’ no-huddle attack will drain the Jets’ battery if they line up quick and keep to the ground.

**Udog** · 11-21-2012, 09:28 PM

NFL
Dunkel

Week 12

New England at NY Jets
The Patriots look to build on their 7-3-1 ATS record in their last 11 road games against teams with a losing home record. New England is the pick (-6 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Patriots favored by 14 1/2. Dunkel Pick: New England (-6 1/2). Here are all of this week's picks.

THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 22

Game 103-104: Houston at Detroit (12:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 138.139; Detroit 136.551
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1 1/2; 46
Vegas Line: Houston by 3 1/2; 50 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (+3 1/2); Under

Game 105-106: Washington at Dallas (12:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Washington 131.590; Dallas 131.544
Dunkel Line: Even; 51
Vegas Line: Dallas by 3 1/2; 48
Dunkel Pick: Washington (+3 1/2); Over

Game 107-108: New England at NY Jets (8:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New England 142.851; NY Jets 128.310
Dunkel Line: New England by 14 1/2; 52
Vegas Line: New England by 6 1/2; 48
Dunkel Pick: New England (-6 1/2); Over

SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 25

Game 221-222: Oakland at Cincinnati (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland 121.244; Cincinnati 137.024
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 16; 45
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 8; 49
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (-8); Under

Game 223-224: Pittsburgh at Cleveland (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Pittsburgh 131.379; Cleveland 130.374
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 1; 43
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 225-226: Buffalo at Indianapolis (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 128.083; Indianapolis 1329.558
Dunkel Line: Indianapolis by 1 1/2; 46
Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 3; 51
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (+3); Under

Game 227-228: Denver at Kansas City (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 135.980; Kansas City 126.942
Dunkel Line: Denver by 9; 48
Vegas Line: Denver by 11; 44
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+11); Over

Game 229-230: Tennessee at Jacksonville (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 126.170 Jacksonville 122.308
Dunkel Line: Tennessee by 4; 41
Vegas Line: Tennessee by 2 1/2; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tennessee (-2 1/2); Under

Game 231-232: Minnesota at Chicago (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Minnesota 128.718; Chicago 131.656
Dunkel Line: Chicago by 3; 46
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 233-234: Atlanta at Tampa Bay (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 137.998; Tampa Bay 138.760
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 1; 43
Vegas Line: Atlanta by 1; 49 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (+1);

Game 235-236: Seattle at Miami (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Seattle 135.112; Miami 129.501
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 5 1/2; 40
Vegas Line: Seattle by 3; 37 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-3); Over

Game 237-238: Baltimore at San Diego (4:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore 131.595; San Diego 133.439
Dunkel Line: San Diego by 2; 44
Vegas Line: Baltimore by 1; 47
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+1); Under

Game 239-240: San Francisco at New Orleans (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Francisco 137.167; New Orleans 139.257
Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 2; 47
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

Game 241-242: St. Louis at Arizona (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 129.779; Arizona 127.752
Dunkel Line: St. Louis by 2; 42
Vegas Line: Arizona by 2 1/2; 37
Dunkel Pick: St. Louis (+2 1/2); Over

Game 243-244: Green Bay at NY Giants (8:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Green Bay 136.596; NY Giants 143.582
Dunkel Line: NY Giants by 7; 45
Vegas Line: NY Giants by 2 1/2; 50
Dunkel Pick: NY Giants (-2 1/2); Under

MONDAY, NOVEMBER 26

Game 245-246: Carolina at Philadelphia (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Carolina 131.535; Philadelphia 125.043
Dunkel Line: Carolina by 6 1/2; 48
Vegas Line: No Line
Dunkel Pick: N/A

**Udog** · 11-21-2012, 09:30 PM

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 12

Thursday, November 22

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HOUSTON (9 - 1) at DETROIT (4 - 6) - 11/22/2012, 12:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in dome games since 1992.
HOUSTON is 8-0 ATS (+8.0 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 19-8 ATS (+10.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 32-54 ATS (-27.4 Units) in November games since 1992.
DETROIT is 0-8 ATS (-8.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 29-48 ATS (-23.8 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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WASHINGTON (4 - 6) at DALLAS (5 - 5) - 11/22/2012, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 33-18 ATS (+13.2 Units) in home games in November games since 1992.
DALLAS is 30-16 ATS (+12.4 Units) in home games in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
DALLAS is 6-19 ATS (-14.9 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
DALLAS is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 5-14 ATS (-10.4 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 4-13 ATS (-10.3 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
WASHINGTON is 4-0 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
DALLAS is 3-1 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NEW ENGLAND (7 - 3) at NY JETS (4 - 6) - 11/22/2012, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 14-5 ATS (+8.5 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ENGLAND is 150-111 ATS (+27.9 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 76-53 ATS (+17.7 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 44-24 ATS (+17.6 Units) in road games versus division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY JETS is 3-3 against the spread versus NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 4-2 straight up against NY JETS over the last 3 seasons
6 of 6 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Sunday, November 25

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OAKLAND (3 - 7) at CINCINNATI (5 - 5) - 11/25/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 3-14 ATS (-12.4 Units) in road games against AFC North division opponents since 1992.
CINCINNATI is 107-143 ATS (-50.3 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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PITTSBURGH (6 - 4) at CLEVELAND (2 - 8) - 11/25/2012, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
CLEVELAND is 2-2 against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 4-0 straight up against CLEVELAND over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BUFFALO (4 - 6) at INDIANAPOLIS (6 - 4) - 11/25/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
INDIANAPOLIS is 42-65 ATS (-29.5 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
INDIANAPOLIS is 24-42 ATS (-22.2 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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DENVER (7 - 3) at KANSAS CITY (1 - 9) - 11/25/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 43-68 ATS (-31.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
DENVER is 28-47 ATS (-23.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.
KANSAS CITY is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) as an underdog of 10 or more points since 1992.
DENVER is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in November games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 3-1 against the spread versus KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
KANSAS CITY is 2-2 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TENNESSEE (4 - 6) at JACKSONVILLE (1 - 9) - 11/25/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
JACKSONVILLE is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
JACKSONVILLE is 3-1 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
JACKSONVILLE is 2-2 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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MINNESOTA (6 - 4) at CHICAGO (7 - 3) - 11/25/2012, 1:00 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
CHICAGO is 4-0 against the spread versus MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
CHICAGO is 4-0 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ATLANTA (9 - 1) at TAMPA BAY (6 - 4) - 11/25/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
TAMPA BAY is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in all games this season.
TAMPA BAY is 8-2 ATS (+5.8 Units) in all lined games this season.
TAMPA BAY is 49-31 ATS (+14.9 Units) in November games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 2-2 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 3-1 straight up against TAMPA BAY over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SEATTLE (6 - 4) at MIAMI (4 - 6) - 11/25/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 5-16 ATS (-12.6 Units) when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992.
SEATTLE is 6-16 ATS (-11.6 Units) after a bye week since 1992.
SEATTLE is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
MIAMI is 69-95 ATS (-35.5 Units) in home games since 1992.
MIAMI is 69-95 ATS (-35.5 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
MIAMI is 69-95 ATS (-35.5 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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BALTIMORE (8 - 2) at SAN DIEGO (4 - 6) - 11/25/2012, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN DIEGO is 12-25 ATS (-15.5 Units) in home games off a loss against a division rival since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN DIEGO is 1-0 against the spread versus BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
SAN DIEGO is 1-0 straight up against BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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SAN FRANCISCO (7 - 2 - 1) at NEW ORLEANS (5 - 5) - 11/25/2012, 4:25 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
SAN FRANCISCO is 2-0 against the spread versus NEW ORLEANS over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 1-1 straight up against SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ST LOUIS (3 - 6 - 1) at ARIZONA (4 - 6) - 11/25/2012, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 124-161 ATS (-53.1 Units) in all games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 90-125 ATS (-47.5 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 96-128 ATS (-44.8 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 26-43 ATS (-21.3 Units) in November games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 124-161 ATS (-53.1 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 65-90 ATS (-34.0 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
ARIZONA is 38-21 ATS (+14.9 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
ARIZONA is 3-2 against the spread versus ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
ARIZONA is 3-2 straight up against ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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GREEN BAY (7 - 3) at NY GIANTS (6 - 4) - 11/25/2012, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
GREEN BAY is 54-32 ATS (+18.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 28-53 ATS (-30.3 Units) in November games since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 26-48 ATS (-26.8 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NY GIANTS is 2-1 against the spread versus GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY is 2-1 straight up against NY GIANTS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 3 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Monday, November 26

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CAROLINA (2 - 8) at PHILADELPHIA (3 - 7) - 11/26/2012, 8:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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**Udog** · 11-21-2012, 09:31 PM

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 12

Texans (9-1) @ Lions (4-6)—Short week plus travel for Houston team that has 3-game division lead with six to play, but is also playing for home field in playoffs. Wade Phillips coached in Dallas, so he should know how to deal with short prep time for Turkey Day game. Schaub passed for 504 yards in dome last week (8.8 ypa) after they struggled to 13-6 win in elements in Chicago week before (88 PY), so home field means more to them than most. Texans are 4-0 on road, with all wins by 6+ points; they covered seven of last ten tries as a road favorite. Detroit lost last five Turkey Day games, allowing average of 40 ppg; they lost to division rivals last two weeks, allowing 34-24 points. Lions are 15-10-2 vs spread in last 27 games vs AFC opponents, 1-1 this year; since start of LY, they’re 0-2 as home underdogs. AFC South non-divisional favorites are 5-2 vs spread, 1-1 on road. Four of last five Texan games in a dome, three of last four Detroit games went over total.

Redskins (4-6) @ Cowboys (5-5)—RGIII returns to Texas (went to college at Baylor) with Redskin squad that snapped 3-game skid with 31-6 rout of Eagles last week; Skins are 2-3 on road, 3-1 as road underdogs, losing away games by 3-4-15 (Steelers) points. Dallas was gifted with OT win last week; 10 of their 30 first downs came via Cleveland penalties. Cowboys are 3-14 vs spread in last 17 games as home favorite, 0-3 this year; they’re 2-2 at home, beating Bucs by 6, Browns by 3. Pokes led at halftime in one of last seven games, but they’ve also only turned ball over once last three weeks (+2) after having 19 giveaways in first seven games (-11). Redskins scored 40-28-23 points in three games on artificial turf (1-2), with underdog covering all three games- they’ve run ball for 151-169 yards in last two games. Home teams are 1-5 vs spread in NFC East divisional games; home favorites are 1-3. Last three Washington games stayed under the total.

Patriots (7-3) @ Jets (4-6)—Key indicator for Jets is 3rd down conversions; they’re 41-87 (47.1%) on 3rd down in games they’ve played well (4-2), 13-53 (24.5%) in four stinkers they played, losing all four by average of 23 points. In three of Jets’ four wins, they had +3 or +4 turnover ratio; Dolphins are only team they’ve beaten (23-20, OT) without winning TO ratio. Patriots are just trying to outscore people; in last two games, foes converted 15-25 on 3rd down, scoring 31-24 points, but NE scored 37-59 points. Absence of Gronkowski (broken arm) is a problem. Jets are 2-3 at home; since ’08, they’ve covered three of four as a home underdog. Since 2003, Pats are 16-6-1 vs spread as road favorite in divisional games; they’re 2-2 in true road games this year (beat Rams in London), with both losses by point (Ravens/Seattle), wins by 21-24. Home teams are 2-5 vs spread in AFC East divisional games; home dogs are 0-2. Last eight New England games went over, three of last four Jet games stayed under.

Raiders (4-6) @ Bengals (5-5)—Carson Palmer was going to retire rather than play for Bengals; they finally traded him to Oakland, where he’s thrown five pick-6’s in little over a year; Raiders hadn’t thrown any from 2006-10. Oakland defense has fallen apart, giving up 45 ppg in last three games (16 TDs on last 36 drives); they’ve turned ball over 7 times in those games (-6), leading to two opponent TDs and field position deficits of 12-8-10 yards. Raiders are 1-4 on road, 2-2 as road dogs, losing away games by 22-31-3-35 points, with only win at lowly Chiefs. In opponents’ last 10 red zone drives, they’ve allowed eight TDs and a FG. Resurgent Bengals allowed only one TD (23 drives) in winning last two games; they’re 2-3 at home, 1-1 as home favorites, winning by 7-18 points. AFC North non-divisional favorites are 4-9 vs spread, 3-5 at home; AFC West underdogs are 5-11, 3-7 at home. Last five Oakland games went over total; five of last seven Bengal games stayed under.

Steelers (6-4) @ Browns (2-8)—37-year old #3 QB Batch gets nod for Pitt here; they’re working out backups (former Patriot Hoyer/former Eagle Kafka) as I type this; Steelers have dominated series lately, but they’ve scored only two TDs on 24 drives in last two games, averaging 4.7/4.2 ypa. Last time Pitt had positive turnover ratio was Week 4, but they’re defending well, allowing 6 or less 2nd half points in each of last five games. Browns got hosed last week at Dallas, getting flagged 12 times for 129 yards, giving Pokes 10 first downs, just on penalties; key call on OT fumble also went Dallas’ way. Cleveland is 2-3 at home, 3-2 as home dogs; since ’07, they’re 14-13 as home dogs. Steelers are 2-3 on road, 1-2 as road favorites; since ’06, they’re 13-21 as road faves, 7-14 in division games. Home sides are 3-2 vs spread in AFC North games. Last five Pittsburgh games, last five Brown games stayed under total.

Bills (4-6) @ Colts (6-4)—Indy was snapped back to reality by 59-24 beating at Foxboro last week, when Patriots scored three TDs on defense/STs; loss snapped 4-game win streak that has Colts as playoff contender- they’re 4-1 at home, but wins are by 3-4-3-3 points, so they’re winning by fine margin (one win in regulation by more than 4 points). Buffalo had extra time to rest/prep after Thursday night win over Miami, just their second in last seven games; Bills are 2-3 as road underdogs this year (4-8-1 in last 13), losing away games this year by 20-42-12-6 points, with wins at Browns/Cardinals. Colts are letting Luck be more aggressive on first down; seven of their last nine plays that gained 20+ yards came on first down (20 of previous 40 had come on 1st down). AFC South non-divisional favorites are 5-2 vs spread, 4-1 at home; AFC East underdogs are 7-5, 2-1 on road. Under is 3-1-1 in last five Indy games.

Broncos (7-3) @ Chiefs (1-9)—Bad teams have very little home field edge, especially late in season; lot of no-shows at their games. Hard to muster any enthusiasm at all for woeful KC, which benched QB Cassel for Notre Dame alum Quinn last week; Chiefs lost last seven games, with four of last five by 10+ points- they’re 0-5 at home this year, 1-3 as home underdogs (were 6-0 as home dogs in ’10-’11), losing by 16-17-3-10-22 points at Arrowhead. Denver won its last five games, scoring 30+ points in all five; they won last three road games by 11-8-22 points, but lost of RB McGahee (knee/leg) sets them back some. Chiefs have only 12 takeaways in 10 games, with -19 turnover ratio, as brooms ready to sweep front office, coaches out of power after season. Bronco defense is making Manning’s life easier; Broncos’ last six TDs were on drives of less than 60 yards. Five of last six Denver games went over the total. NFL-wide, divisional home underdogs are 8-13 vs spread, 1-7 in AFC games.

Titans (4-6) @ Jaguars (1-9)—Not often teams lose when they have +2 turnover ratio, but Jax has it done it twice this year, losing both times in OT, at Oakland/Houston. Jaguars are 5-0 vs spread on road, 0-5 at home, with all five home losses by 17+ points (average home score, 31-9); they’re better off right now with more veteran Henne at QB- he passed for 372 yards in last week’s OT loss in Houston, averaging 10.1 ypa. Tennessee’s 80+ year old owner Adams read team/coaches riot act after 51-20 home loss in Week 9; team responded with pre-bye 37-3 win at contending Miami; Titans won last two road games, scoring 35-37 points, after losing first three by average score of 35-10. Tennessee is 0-1 as favorite this year; since ’09, they’re 2-4 as road favorites. Home teams are 1-5 vs spread in AFC South games; home underdogs are 0-2. Over is 5-3 in last eight Tennessee games, 4-2 in last six Jaguar games.

Vikings (6-4) @ Bears (7-3)—In six-game winning streak from Weeks 3-9, Chicago scored 8 TDs on defense/special teams, masking a struggling offense; now that Cutler is hurt, offense has been exposed, scoring one TD on 23 drives in losing last two games- backup QB Campbell was beaten like a piñata at Candlestick Monday, sacked six times. After being +16 in turnovers first half of season, they’ve been -2 in each of last two games- teams that are -2 or worse in turnovers are 11-60 SU this year. Vikings lost their last two post-bye games 29-10/45-7; they’re 1-3 on road this year, with only win 20-13 at Detroit, when they didn’t score offensive TD but had two on special teams. Short week for Bears, who haven’t been same team since bye week (4-1 vs spread before bye, 1-4 after). Home teams are 2-4 vs spread in NFC North games this season. Four of last five Viking games, four of last six Chicago games went over the total.

Falcons (9-1) @ Buccaneers (6-4)—Red-hot Tampa Bay (won/covered last four games) finding ways to win; they were down 10 with 5:00 left at Charlotte last week, won in OT- they had TDs on defense/special teams week before vs Chargers. Bucs make opponent earn their points; 14 of last 16 TDs they allowed were on drives of 72+ yards, and other two were 64-65 yards- they haven’t beaten themselves, which is what Falcon s tried to do last week, turning ball over six times but somehow surviving at home vs Arizona. Falcons have run ball only 42 times for 104 yards in last two games, after averaging 98.5 yards on ground in first eight games. Six of last seven Tampa Bay games went over the total. Underdogs are 4-2 vs spread in NFC South games this season. Last week, Ryan was first NFL QB since 1967 to throw five INTs, no TDs in a win; good news is that Bart Starr was that QB, and Packers won SB that year. Good news for Atlanta; they’re 4-0 outdoors, with average score, 30-15.

Seahawks (6-4) @ Dolphins (4-6)—Couple of rookie QBs figure to combine for low scoring game, right? In Miami’s last two games, they have zero plays of 20+ yards, after having 32 in first eight games; league-wide, teams average 4+ explosive plays/game. Dolphins had three extra days to prep after tough loss at Miami (didn’t allow offensive TD); they’re 2-2 at home, scoring 17-3 points in last two home tilts. Long road trip for Seattle; they’re 1-4 on road (0-2 as favorite), with only win 16-12 at Carolina- last time they covered as road favorite was 2008 at St Louis. Over last 21 years, Seattle is 5-17 vs spread (4-5 as favorite) in its post-bye games, though they covered last two (lost 6-3, +3.5 LY). Since ’07, Miami is 7-13 as home underdog, 1-1 this year. NFC West non-divisional favorites are 6-5 vs spread, 1-1 on road; AFC East underdogs are 7-6, 2-1 at home. Under is 4-1 in Seattle’s road games, 5-0-1 last six Dolphin games.

Ravens (8-2) @ Chargers (4-6)—Sandwich game for Baltimore, which barely escaped Pittsburgh with 13-10 win Sunday night even though Leftwich played end of game with broken ribs; they play Steelers at home next week. Ravens won last three games but covered only twice in last eight; they’re 3-2 at home, 1-2 as road favorites- they’re 4-6 vs spread in last 10 games as road favorite, and scored 13 or less points in three of last four away games. Norv Turner regime is on life support after last week’s loss at Denver, though string of winnable games in December keeps Wild Card in sight; Chargers lost five of last six games- they’re 2-2 at home, beating Titans/Chiefs. Bolts are 4-6 despite being favored in 7 of 10 games; since 2004, they’re 5-2 as home underdogs. AFC West non-divisional underdogs are 5-11 vs spread, 2-4 at home; AFC North favorites are 4-9, 1-4 on road. Six of last seven San Diego games went over total.

49ers (7-2-1) @ Saints (5-5)—Short week plus travel for SF, but Niners pummeled Chicago Monday night, holding Bears to 143 yards after Rams put 458 up on them week before; 49ers are 3-1 on road, winning by 8-34-21 points, with only loss in Minnesota’s dome (1-4 vs spread in last five dome games). SF is 2-1 as road favorite this year. Brees has Saints on 5-1 roll after 0-4 start; now they get chance to avenge loss to 49ers in LY’s playoffs, with Kaepernick making first NFL road start. Saints won three in row, five of last six games; they’ve covered seven of last eight, winning last three home games while scoring 31-28-31 points. 49ers don’t beat themselves; they haven’t turned ball over in last three games, but defense isn’t forcing turnovers like they did LY (+28 LY, +4 this year). NFC West non-divisional favorites are 6-5 as favorites, 5-4 on road. NFC South underdogs are 9-3 vs spread, 0-2 at home. Six of last nine 49er games stayed under total; seven of ten Saint games went over.

Rams (3-6-1) @ Cardinals (4-6)—Only games Rams won came vs two rookie QB’s (Seattle/Washington) and a lame QB (Arizona); they sacked Kolb nine times in 17-3 (+2) win back in Week 5, but they haven’t won (0-4-1) since, in large part because they haven’t forced one single turnover in last five games (-8) after forcing nine (+2) in first five games. Teams with inferior talent cannot win with negative turnover ratios. Cardinals lost last six games after 4-0 start; they somehow lost in Atlanta last week despite a +5 turnover ratio- they picked Ryan off five times, started five of 15 drives in Falcon territory and still scored only 19 points. Rams are one of two NFL teams (Browns) without road win; they’re 3-2 as road underdogs. Arizona is 3-2 at home, scoring 16-3 points in losing last two (one TD on last 23 home drives). Underdogs are 4-1-1 vs spread in NFC West divisional games. Last four St Louis games went over; five of last six Cardinal games stayed under.

Packers (7-3) @ Giants (6-4)— Giants are 4-0 when game goes over total, 2-4 when it stays under. Last two Super Bowl winners meet; odd thing, they were both #6 seed in NFC when they became champs. Green Bay won last five games this year, forcing 14 turnovers (+8) after being -1 (5 turnovers) in first five games; Pack has chance to avenge home playoff loss to Big Blue LY- they’re 3-2 on road, but all three wins came in domes- they lost their only outdoor road game, 14-12 at Seattle on a Monday night with bogus last play with replacement refs. Giants scored 34.8 ppg in winning last four post-bye games; they’re 3-1 at home, 1-3 as home favorites, with wins by 7-14-4 points and loss to Steelers. NFC North non-divisional underdogs are 2-4 vs spread, 1-4 on road; NFC East favorites are 3-13 vs spread, 2-8 at home. Five of last seven Green Bay games, three of four Giant home games went over total.

Panthers (2-8) @ Eagles (3-7)—Not much to choose from here, with both head coaches possible lame ducks, but you have underdog with big edge under center (Newton over Foles). Carolina lost seven of last eight games, blowing 10-point lead with 5:00 left at home last week; they’re 3-0 as road underdogs this year, losing away games by 6-1-2 points, with only win in last road game, 21-13 at Washington. Visitor covered Carolina’s last eight games. Eagles lost last six games, giving up 31.8 ppg in losing all four games since bye, when they fired their DC. Shanahan had been 3-21-1 as home favorite before his Skins walloped Philly 31-6 last week, that’s how far Eagles have fallen, in what are obviously Reid’s last weeks running club. NFC South underdogs are 9-3 vs spread, 9-1 on road; NFC East favorites are 3-13 vs spread, 2-8 at home. Four of five Eagle home games went over the total. National TV audience should extract better effort than these teams have been producing lately.

**Udog** · 11-21-2012, 09:31 PM

NFL

Week 12

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Trend Report
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Thursday, November 22

12:30 PM
HOUSTON vs. DETROIT
Houston is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 6 games on the road
Detroit is 4-12-1 ATS in its last 17 games
Detroit is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games

4:15 PM
WASHINGTON vs. DALLAS
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Washington's last 7 games when playing Dallas
Dallas is 14-2 SU in its last 16 games when playing at home against Washington
Dallas is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Washington

8:20 PM
NEW ENGLAND vs. NY JETS
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New England's last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 8 of New England's last 9 games on the road
NY Jets are 2-9 SU in their last 11 games when playing at home against New England
NY Jets are 2-11 ATS in their last 13 games when playing at home against New England

Sunday, November 25

1:00 PM
MINNESOTA vs. CHICAGO
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games
Minnesota is 1-7-1 ATS in its last 9 games when playing on the road against Chicago
Chicago is 2-4-1 ATS in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Chicago's last 18 games at home

1:00 PM
PITTSBURGH vs. CLEVELAND
Pittsburgh is 4-7-1 ATS in its last 12 games
Pittsburgh is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Cleveland
Cleveland is 2-5 SU in its last 7 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Cleveland's last 10 games at home

1:00 PM
BUFFALO vs. INDIANAPOLIS
The total has gone OVER in 10 of Buffalo's last 15 games on the road
Buffalo is 2-11 SU in its last 13 games on the road
Indianapolis is 8-17 SU in its last 25 games
Indianapolis is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games

1:00 PM
DENVER vs. KANSAS CITY
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Denver's last 8 games on the road
Denver is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games
Kansas City is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Denver
Kansas City is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Denver

1:00 PM
SEATTLE vs. MIAMI
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Seattle's last 10 games
Seattle is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing Miami
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Miami's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games when playing at home against Seattle

1:00 PM
ATLANTA vs. TAMPA BAY
Atlanta is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing Tampa Bay
Atlanta is 9-1 SU in its last 10 games
Tampa Bay is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing Atlanta
Tampa Bay is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games

1:00 PM
OAKLAND vs. CINCINNATI
Oakland is 4-11 SU in its last 15 games
Oakland is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Cincinnati
Cincinnati is 1-4-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Cincinnati is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games at home

1:00 PM
TENNESSEE vs. JACKSONVILLE
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tennessee's last 6 games on the road
Tennessee is 4-10 ATS in its last 14 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 5 games when playing at home against Tennessee

4:05 PM
BALTIMORE vs. SAN DIEGO
Baltimore is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
Baltimore is 2-5-1 ATS in its last 8 games
The total has gone OVER in 6 of San Diego's last 7 games
San Diego is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games when playing Baltimore

4:15 PM
SAN FRANCISCO vs. NEW ORLEANS
San Francisco is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of San Francisco's last 10 games on the road
New Orleans is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games when playing at home against San Francisco
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of New Orleans's last 9 games when playing at home against San Francisco

4:15 PM
ST. LOUIS vs. ARIZONA
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of St. Louis's last 8 games when playing on the road against Arizona
The total has gone OVER in 4 of St. Louis's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Arizona's last 9 games when playing St. Louis
Arizona is 10-2 SU in its last 12 games when playing St. Louis

8:20 PM
GREEN BAY vs. NY GIANTS
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Green Bay's last 5 games when playing on the road against NY Giants
Green Bay is 13-3 SU in its last 16 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of the NY Giants last 5 games
The total has gone OVER in 4 of the NY Giants last 5 games when playing at home against Green Bay

Monday, November 26

8:30 PM
CAROLINA vs. PHILADELPHIA
Carolina is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
Carolina is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Philadelphia's last 6 games when playing Carolina
Philadelphia is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Carolina

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**Udog** · 11-21-2012, 09:32 PM

NFL
Short Sheet

Week 12

Thursday, November 22, 2012

Houston at Detroit, 12:30 ET CBS
Houston: 8-0 ATS in games where the line is +3 to -3
Detroit: 12-29 ATS after covering the spread in 4 or 5 out of their last 6

Washington at Dallas, 4:15 ET FOX
Washington: 14-2 ATS vs. excellent passing teams
Dallas: 13-4 Under when playing against a marginal losing team

New England at NY Jets, 8:20 ET NBC
New England: 14-5 ATS in road games
NY Jets: 40-69 ATS at home after playing their last game on the road

**Udog** · 11-21-2012, 09:33 PM

NFL

Thursday, November 22

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Texans at Lions: What bettors need to know
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Houston Texans at Detroit Lions (+3, 50.5)

The Detroit Lions have hosted a Thanksgiving Day game for 73 years. It has not gone their way recently. The Lions will be looking to snap an eight-game losing streak on Thanksgiving when they host the Houston Texans on Thursday. The Texans needed overtime to squeeze past lowly Jacksonville on Sunday but own the best record in the AFC at 9-1. Detroit has dropped two straight and sits in a familiar position - last in the NFC North.

The Lions lost to the Green Bay Packers last Thanksgiving - a game most notable for Ndamukong Suh’s stomp of an offensive lineman that ended up earning him a two-game suspension. Suh and company rank in the top 10 in the league defensively as far as yardage is concerned but sit in the bottom third in scoring defense, thanks in part to an offense that has left it in bad position with turnovers. The Lions can’t afford to do that against the Texans, who broke out for 43 points on Sunday and have yet to lose on the road.

TV: 12:30 p.m. ET, CBS.

LINE: Houston opened as big as 3.5 with most books dealing -3, which has remained steady. The total is set at 51 after moving up from 49.

THANKSGIVING HISTORY: Detroit is right there with mashed potatoes as a Thanksgiving staple. The Lions are 11-16 SU and ATS and 14-13 over/under on Thanksgiving since 1985, including going 0-8 SU and ATS since 2004 with a 2-6 over/under count in that span. This will be Houston's first Thanksgiving Day game in franchise history.

ABOUT THE TEXANS (9-1, 7-3 ATS): After winning two straight ugly games with its defense, Houston lit it up offensively on Sunday, totaling 640 yards. Matt Schaub passed for a career-high 527 yards and five touchdowns and Andre Johnson broke out of a slump in a big way with 273 yards and a TD on 14 receptions. The Texans had held their previous three opponents to 13 points or less and are entering the most difficult stretch of the schedule. Houston will play its next three games on the road, with trips to Tennessee and New England coming after Detroit. The Texans struggled in pass coverage against Jaguars backup Chad Henne on Sunday and will have to get that fixed before facing the Lions, who lead the league in passing offense.

ABOUT THE LIONS (4-6, 4-6 ATS): Passing is the one thing the offense has done consistently well this season, though quarterback Matt Stafford has only 12 touchdowns against 10 interceptions. Stafford and Calvin Johnson have been able to pile up the yardage but have struggled in the red zone. The Lions had to settle for two field goals inside the 10-yard line and Stafford had a pass intercepted in the end zone in Sunday’s 24-20 home loss to the Packers. Johnson caught the lone touchdown pass in that contest but, like Stafford, he also lost a fumble. Detroit might have to run the table to make the playoffs for a second straight season, and a schedule that includes Houston, Atlanta, Chicago and Green Bay over the last six games makes that a difficult proposition

TRENDS:

* Texans are 15-5-2 ATS in their last 22 games overall.
* Lions are 5-11-1 ATS in their last 17 games overall.
* Under is 5-1 in Texans last six road games.
* Under is 7-3 in Lions last 10 Thursday games.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Lions OT Jeff Backus left Sunday’s game with a hamstring injury and is questionable for Thursday. He has started 186 straight games.

2. Schaub’s 527-yard performance tied for the second-biggest passing day in NFL history. Norm Van Brocklin has held the record of 554 yards since Sept. 28, 1951.

3. Texans RB Arian Foster lost a fumble for the first time this season against the Jaguars.

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**Udog** · 11-21-2012, 09:33 PM

NFL

Thursday, November 22

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Redskins at Cowboys: What bettors need to know
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Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys (-3.5, 48)

While hardly aesthetically pleasing, the Dallas Cowboys have put together a pair of wins to position themselves in the discussion for a potential postseason berth. The talk could get louder should the Cowboys topple the Washington Redskins on Thanksgiving when the NFC East rivals meet in Arlington, Texas. Dallas moved one game behind the division-leading New York Giants after posting a 23-20 overtime victory over Cleveland on Sunday.

Rookie Robert Griffin III had a much easier time of it on Sunday as the reigning Heisman Trophy winner tossed a season-best four touchdowns in a 31-6 triumph over reeling Philadelphia. Washington snapped a three-game losing skid and preserved its slim postseason aspirations. The Redskins will look to gain ground in the division as they continue their stretch of playing five NFC East rivals over the final seven weeks of the season.

TV: 4:15 p.m. ET, FOX.

LINE: Dallas opened as high as -4 but most books are dealing 3.5. The total has moved from 47 to 48 points.

THANKSGIVING HISTORY: Dallas is a mainstay of the Thanksgiving schedule, going 15-12 SU and 16-11 ATS (13-14 over/under) on Thanksgiving since 1985, including a 5-1 SU and ATS record since 2006. Washington is 0-3 SU and ATS on Thanksgiving Day since 1985 with a 2-1 over/under record in those game.

ABOUT THE REDSKINS (4-6, 5-5 ATS): Veteran wide receiver Santana Moss found the end zone for the fourth time in as many weeks after splitting double coverage to reel in a 61-yard scoring strike from Griffin. Moss, who matched a career high with six touchdowns this season, has traditionally torched the Cowboys (78 receptions, 1,125 yards and six touchdowns in 13 games). After failing to force a turnover in its previous two games, Washington did so three times during the first half on Sunday.

ABOUT THE COWBOYS (5-5, 4-6 ATS): Wide receiver Dez Bryant benefited from the pass-heavy offense to reel in 12 catches for a career-high 145 yards and a touchdown. Tony Romo and the mercurial Bryant will likely be licking their chops when they face Washington's porous 29th-ranked pass defense, which is yielding 289.2 yards per contest. With DeMarco Murray (foot) sidelined for a fifth straight game, Felix Jones matched a career high with his third touchdown run. Jones injured his knee late in Sunday's game but is expected to play on Thanksgiving.

TRENDS:

* Redskins are 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.
* Redskins are 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings in Dallas.
* Under is 5-2 in the last seven meetings.
* Road team is 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings.
* Underdog is 22-6 ATS in their last 28 meetings.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Washington S Brandon Meriweather made his season debut versus Philadelphia after being sidelined with a left knee injury. Meriweather, who intercepted rookie Nick Foles, tore his ACL and is lost for the season.

2. After leading the league with 13 interceptions through seven games, Romo has four touchdowns and no picks over his last three games.

3. Dallas has won six of the last seven meetings - including a season sweep in 2011 by a total of five points.

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**Udog** · 11-21-2012, 09:33 PM

NFL

Thursday, November 22

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Patriots at Jets: What bettors need to know
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New England Patriots at New York Jets (+6.5, 48)

Riding a four-game winning streak, the New England Patriots have to prepare for Thursday night’s game against the host New York Jets without tight end Rob Gronkowski. In the midst of another dominant season Gronkowski broke his forearm in the Patriots’ win over the Indianapolis Colts on Sunday. Gronkowski underwent surgery Monday morning and could miss the rest of the regular season. With him sidelined, the Patriots may look to run the ball more against the Jets, who are sixth in the NFL against the pass but rank 30th vs. the run, giving up an average of 141 rushing yards.

The Jets finally got back on the right path in beating the St. Louis Rams to end their three-game slide and rebound from two straight blowout losses. New York needs to go on a winning streak to get back in the playoff picture. It trails New England by three games in the AFC East standings but is just two out of a congested wild card race.

TV: 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC.

WEATHER: The forecast is calling for clear skies and temperatures in the low 44s. Winds are expected to blow south at 1 mph.

LINE: New England opened as a touchdown favorite but was bet down as low as 5.5 before buyback came back on the Patriots. The total has moved from 50.5 to 48 points.

THANKSGIVING HISTORY: The Jets and Patriots have only played three Thanksgiving Day games each since 1985. New England is 2-1 SU and ATS and 2-1 over/under in those games while New York is 1-2 SU and ATS with a 1-2 over/under count.

ABOUT THE PATRIOTS (7-3, 6-4 ATS): The loss of Gronkowski is a major setback. Fellow tight end Aaron Hernandez has missed six games overall and three straight with a nagging ankle injury. Hernandez has been listed as questionable for several weeks and played just twice since sustaining the injury early in Week 2. Although New England expects him to be ready for Thursday, how well he’ll play is uncertain and tight ends have been a crucial part of the Patriots’ top-ranked offense. New England scored 59 points in its win against Indianapolis, the second time this season it has topped 50 points. The rest of the NFL has only done it twice.

ABOUT THE JETS (4-6, 6-4 ATS): New York finally got its offense in gear in its 27-13 win at St. Louis. Reserve running back Bilal Powell ran for the first two touchdowns of his career and QB Mark Sanchez was efficient and turnover-free. Sanchez ranks last among starters in completion percentage but fired a scoring pass against the Rams and completed 75 percent of his passes. The Jets nearly won at New England in Week 7. New York scored 13 straight points in the fourth quarter to take a three-point lead with 1:37 to play. But the Jets watched Tom Brady move the team into field goal position to tie the game and New England won it in overtime with another field goal.

TRENDS:

* Over is 6-0-1 in the last seven meetings.
* Patriots are 11-2 ATS in their last 13 meetings in New York.
* Over is 5-2 in the last seven meetings in New York.
* Road team is 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 meetings.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Jets PK Nick Folk booted a pair of 51-yard field goals against the Rams. He has missed just three of 17 attempts this season, two of which were blocked.

2. Gronkowski scored twice against the Jets earlier in the season.

3. Sanchez threw for a season-high 328 yards in the 29-26 loss at New England.

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**Udog** · 11-22-2012, 10:20 AM

Where the action is: NFL Thanksgiving line moves

Houston Texans at Detroit Lions – Open: +3, Move: +4

After sitting at a field goal since opening, money is starting to pile up on the road team and has moved the spread off the key number at most books. Other spots are juicing the 3.5 like a bag of oranges, trying to keep the home team low as much as possible.

“As for the Thanksgiving Day game aspect, action goes to Houston in that regard, as the Lions haven’t won on Turkey Day for the last eight games,” Black told Covers. “So, are they due, or does Houston heap more Thanksgiving Day misery on them?”

As for the total, after climbing as high as 50.5, action on the under has taken it back down to 49.5 points. Black says that bettors who are taking Houston should look for a run-first attack and those betting Detroit should expect an all-out air attack. Perhaps they should bet the total accordingly.

Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys – Open: -4, Move: -3

The line has been trimmed to a juiced field goal, with two-way wagering on the spread. However, plenty of bettors are skipping the points and taking Washington outright on the moneyline. The Redskins opened at +160 and are down to as low as +145 at some books.

“This one is obviously a tough game to call,” says Black. “The line goes with the home team, and would be similar line in Washington. This division has been up and down, and is up for grabs for anyone who can go on a run in the next four or five games. The biggest thing for anyone playing this game is where do you see the injury factors on both sides? Dallas is banged up on offense, while Washington is banged up on defense.”

Black says injuries to the Cowboys’ offensive line and rushing game and the Redskins’ banged up stop unit is keeping bettors at bay. This is the least bet game among the three Thanksgiving Day contests, but he expects action to pick up once more injury news is released.

New England Patriots at New York Jets – Open: +7.5, Move: +5.5, Move: +7

Sharp money looked at Rob Gronkowski’s injury as a reason to pile on the Jets and force this line down as low as 5.5 before buying back big on the Patriots. New England is expected to have TE Aaron Hernandez back from an ankle injury, softening the loss of Gronk.

“The upgrade for Hernandez has had impact on (the line), showing how much faith the bettors have in Hernandez to fill the role of the tight end-heavy passing game for New England,” says Black. “He’s being called a game-time decision, but I would venture a guess that the decision has been made already and he will play.”

Black says the total is seeing action on the over at a 3:1 rate, after dropping as low as 48 points from its opening of 51. Most books are currently dealing 48.5 as of Thursday morning.

**Udog** · 11-23-2012, 09:17 PM

NFL poolies betting cheat sheet: Week 12

Oakland at Cincinnati (-9.5, 49.5)

The Bengals have outscored their last two opponents by a combined 40 points while posting back-to-back victories. That’s bad news for the Oakland Raiders, who have allowed an average of 45.0 points in dropping three straight games. Raiders RB Darren McFadden (ankle) is running at practice and is questionable. Backup RB Mike Goodson (ankle) is further away from returning. Oakland is 1-5 ATS in its last six games overall.

Pittsburgh at Cleveland (1, 34)

The Pittsburgh Steelers' QB carousel will take another turn on Sunday when veteran Charlie Batch makes the start versus the host Cleveland Browns. The 37-year-old Batch will look to improve upon the performance of fellow veteran Byron Leftwich, who scored a rushing touchdown - and promptly broke a rib - in a 13-10 loss to Baltimore last Sunday. Batch will need to be on alert against a tenacious Browns defense, which recorded a season-high seven sacks of Tony Romo last week. Pittsburgh has won four in a row and 21 of 23 versus Cleveland.

Buffalo at Indianapolis (-3, 50.5)

Buffalo is one of five AFC teams entering the weekend at 4-6, two games behind the wild card leaders and clinging to some hope that it can make up the ground over the last six weeks. The Bills expect to have RB Fred Jackson back from a concussion on Sunday but may still start C.J. Spiller, who piled up 130 yards from scrimmage in a 19-14 win over the Dolphins last week. Andrew Luck and the Indianapolis Colts had their winning streak come to an end in embarrassing fashion at New England last Sunday. Luck had some rookie stumbles against New England, throwing three interceptions - two of which were returned for touchdowns. The Colts are 6-0 ATS in their last six games following a loss.

Tennessee at Jacksonville (3.5, 44.5)

Chad Henne nearly led the Jaguars to the season’s biggest upset last week when Jacksonville fell at Houston. More than a two-touchdown underdog, the Jags led the powerhouse Texans by 14 with 12 minutes to play but they fell apart down the stretch dropping a 43-37 decision. The Titans had a week off after dismantling Miami 37-3 in their most complete performance of the season. Tennessee has quietly won three of its last five games despite ranking 31st in scoring defense (31.1). Jacksonville has failed to cover in its last five home games.

Denver at Kansas City (10, 44)

Denver will need to rely more on Peyton Manning as RB Willis McGahee landed on injured reserve after suffering a torn MCL in his right knee during last week's 30-23 triumph over San Diego. The Broncos, who own a three-game lead over the Chargers in the division, haven't lost since dropping a 31-21 decision at New England on Oct. 7. Kansas City has averaged 12 points per game during its seven-game losing skid and has scored more than 20 only twice this season. Former Bronco Brady Quinn is likely to get the start at QB over Matt Cassel. The underdog is 5-0 ATS in their last five meetings.

Minnesota at Chicago (-6.5)

Jay Cutler (concussion) is hoping to return Sunday when Chicago hosts the Minnesota Vikings in a pivotal NFC North matchup. The Vikings have their own injury issues, with WR Percy Harvin a question mark as he struggles with an ankle injury. Minnesota is coming off a Week 11 bye after handling the Detroit Lions 34-24 a week earlier behind 171 rushing yards from Adrian Peterson. The Vikings are 0-5 ATS in their last five meetings.

Atlanta at Tampa Bay (1, 50)

The Falcons avoided a second straight loss last Sunday as they overcame an early 13-0 deficit and five interceptions by Matt Ryan to record a 23-19 triumph over Arizona. The Falcons have struggled against the run, ranking 30th in the league with an average of 5.0 yards allowed per carry. Tampa Bay also made a comeback last weekend, rallying from a 21-10 deficit for a 27-21 road victory over Carolina in overtime. Bucs RB Doug Martin has totaled 592 yards of offense and has amassed five touchdowns over the past four games. Tampa Bay has played over the total in its last seven games overall.

Seattle at Miami (2.5, 37.5)

The Dolphins are swimming in the wrong direction. Rookie QB Ryan Tannehill has been erratic, throwing five interceptions in the last two games. Reggie Bush has rushed for just 41 yards in that same span, but will face his former Southern California coach in Pete Carroll on Sunday. Seattle’s opportunistic defense is yielding just 196.2 passing yards per contest, good enough for third-best in the league. The Seahawks will be well rested coming off their bye week and are looking for a third straight win. Seattle is 5-1 ATS in its last six overall.

Baltimore at San Diego (-1, 47)

Ravens defensive star Ed Reed was initially suspended for one game following his third helmet-to-helmet hit on a defenseless player, but the eight-time Pro Bowl safety won his appeal and will instead be fined $50,000 and be eligible to play Sunday. The Chargers have dropped five of their last six games. Quarterback Philip Rivers has tossed a league-high 14 interceptions and hasn’t received much support from the running game this season. Running back Ryan Mathews averaged just 3.1 yards on 15 carries in last week’s loss to Denver. The Chargers have played over the total in six of their last seven overall.

San Francisco at New Orleans (PICK, 48.5)

Colin Kaepernick is expected to be under center Sunday when the 49ers look to extend their winning streak to five games against visiting New Orleans. Drew Brees leads a Saints team that has reeled off three straight victories and is 5-1 since opening the year with four straight losses. But he'll be in tough against a San Francisco defense allowing the second-fewest passing yards in the league. Saints RB Darren Sproles (hand) has been participating in practice and is expected to return after missing the last three weeks of action. New Orleans is 6-1 ATS in its last seven overall.

St. Louis at Arizona (-1, 37)

The Cardinals will be looking to snap a six-game slide when they host the St. Louis Rams. The Rams were done in by three turnovers in a 27-13 loss to the Jets last week and have given the ball away eight times while going winless in their last five. Cardinals coach Ken Whisenhunt has yet to name a starter at QB for this week but will likely stick with Ryan Lindley after yanking John Skelton in the second quarter against the Falcons last week. These teams have played under the total eight times in their last nine meetings.

Green Bay at New York Giants (-2.5, 50.5)

After a bit of a slow start, Aaron Rodgers has heated up as the Packers have won five straight and six of seven. He leads the NFL with a 107.3 QB rating and has 27 touchdown passes against six interceptions. The Packers haven't been able to mount much of a run game, but they're more likely to attack the Giants through the air, as New York ranks 25th against the pass and surrendered 415 passing yards against Dallas in Week 8. Green Bay's defense will be shorthanded with CB Charles Woodson out with a broken collarbone and LB Clay Matthews (hamstring) listed as questionable. The Giants are coming off a bye week and have lost two straight and may be without RB Ahmad Bradshaw (foot). These teams have played over the total in their last five meetings.

Carolina at Philadelphia (1, 41)

The Philadelphia Eagles will look to snap their six-game losing skid when they welcome the Carolina Panthers on Monday night. With the outcome of last Sunday's game against the Redskins no longer in doubt, LeSean McCoy carried the ball in the waning moments and suffered a concussion that could sideline him versus the Panthers. McCoy and QB Michael Vick have yet to practice this week and will likely watch rookies Bryce Brown and Nick Foles continue in their place. Carolina squandered an 11-point lead with five minutes remaining in regulation en route to a 27-21 overtime loss to NFC South rival Tampa Bay last Sunday. The Eagles have failed to cover in their last five games overall.

**Udog** · 11-24-2012, 09:42 PM

NFL

Sunday, November 25

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Falcons at Bucs: What bettors need to know
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Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1, 50.5)

If the conference-leading Atlanta Falcons hope to continue their winning ways, they'll have to derail one of the hottest teams in the league when they visit the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in a matchup of the top two clubs in the NFC South on Sunday. After winning its first eight games of the campaign, Atlanta dropped a four-point decision at New Orleans on Nov. 11, ending its hopes of an undefeated season. The Falcons avoided a second straight loss last Sunday as they overcame an early 13-0 deficit and five interceptions by Matt Ryan to record a 23-19 triumph over Arizona.

Tampa Bay also made a comeback last weekend, rallying from a 21-10 deficit with 11 points in the final 4:03 of the fourth quarter and a touchdown pass from Josh Freeman to Dallas Clark just 4:20 into overtime for a 27-21 road victory over Carolina. It was the fourth consecutive win for the Buccaneers, who had lost four of their previous five contests. The triumph kept Tampa Bay three games behind Atlanta in the division and in the thick of things in the NFC wild-card picture.

TV: 1 p.m. ET, FOX.

LINE: Falcons -1, O/U: 50.5.

WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the mid-60s with sunny skies. Winds will blow out of the NW at 6 mph.

ABOUT THE FALCONS (9-1): Atlanta became the first team to win when its quarterback throws five interceptions and no touchdowns since Green Bay accomplished the feat in 1967 with Bart Starr under center. Ryan has been superb over his last seven road games as he has thrown 19 touchdown passes and just three interceptions. The Falcons have struggled against the run, ranking 30th in the league with an average of 5.0 yards allowed per carry. Tony Gonzalez needs 12 receiving yards to become the eighth player - and first tight end - in NFL history to reach the 14,000-yard plateau.

ABOUT THE BUCCANEERS (6-4): Tampa Bay has scored a league-high 205 points over its last six games. Freeman has lost four of his last five games against Atlanta, throwing 10 interceptions and only six touchdown passes. In his last six overall contests, he is 5-1 with 16 TDs and only three picks. The Buccaneers own the league's best run defense with an average of 81.8 yards allowed. However, the team has surrendered an NFL-worst 312.6 passing yards.

TRENDS:

* Falcons are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games.
* Buccaneers are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.
* Over is 5-0 in Falcons’ last five vs. NFC South.
* Over is 7-0 in Buccaneers’ last seven games overall.
* Favorite is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. The Falcons have won six of the last seven meetings between the division rivals.

2. Tampa Bay has not won five straight games since 2002.

3. Six of Atlanta's last seven games have been decided by no more than a touchdown.

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**Udog** · 11-24-2012, 09:44 PM

NFL

Sunday, November 25

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49ers at Saints: What bettors need to know
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San Francisco 49ers at New Orleans Saints (1, 49)

A one-week injury may have been all it took for Alex Smith to lose his job as the starting quarterback of the San Francisco 49ers. Colin Kaepernick is expected to be under center Sunday when the 49ers look to extend their winning streak to five games against the visiting New Orleans Saints. Smith has been demoted to second-team reps in practice by head coach Jim Harbaugh, who was left impressed by Kaepernick's performance in Monday's 32-7 drubbing of the Chicago Bears.

Kaepernick's second NFL start will pit him against one of the best quarterbacks to ever play the game. Drew Brees leads a Saints team that has reeled off three straight victories and is 5-1 since opening the year with four straight losses. As expected, Brees has been the catalyst - he torched the Oakland Raiders for three scores in a Week 11 victory and has thrown multiple touchdown passes in all but one game this season. He'll be in tough against a San Francisco defense allowing the second-fewest passing yards in the league.

TV: 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX.

LINE: 49ers -1, O/U: 49.

ABOUT THE 49ERS (7-2-1): As Smith sat recovering from a concussion, Kaepernick staked his claim to the starting role with 243 passing yards and two touchdowns against Chicago's vaunted defense. Kaepernick was given a ringing post-game endorsement by tight end Vernon Davis, who finished with six catches for 83 yards and a score. "I felt like somebody took the handcuffs off me," said Davis, who had amassed just nine catches for 101 yards in his previous four contests - all with Smith at the helm.

ABOUT THE SAINTS (5-5): While New Orleans' offense continues to roll over the opposition, the defense has made quiet strides during the team's current winning streak. The Saints kept Oakland at bay in a 38-17 victory on Sunday and has surrendered an average of 19 points over its last three games. Running back Darren Sproles has been participating in practice and is expected to return after missing the last three weeks with a broken hand. Sproles will be a popular option for Brees in what becomes a muddled backfield.

TRENDS:

* Saints are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games overall.
* 49ers are 5-2 ATS in their last seven November games.
* Over is 10-1 in Saints’ last 11 vs. NFC opponents.
* Home team is 4-1 ATS in their last five meetings.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Brees is 5-0 lifetime in the regular season against the 49ers, with 12 touchdowns, two interceptions and a quarterback rating of 107.2.

2. San Francisco linebacker Aldon Smith's 5 1/2 sacks against Chicago give him 29 in his first 26 NFL games, the most by any player over that time frame.

3. The 49ers lead the all-time series 45-24-2.

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NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 12 (Thursday, November 22 - Monday, November 26)

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