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NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 11 (Thursday, November 15 - Monday, November 19)

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  • #16
    Where the action is: Sunday's NFL line moves

    Cleveland Browns at Dallas Cowboys – Open: -9.5, Move: -7.5

    The Cowboys took advantage of Michael Vick’s concussion last week and pulled out a big win at Philadelphia to inch closer to .500. But the Browns are coming off a bye week and Dallas has failed to cover in three home games this season.

    “The Browns are a very popular play with bettors this week and we’re getting 75 percent of cash on the spread,” Perry told Covers.

    Arizona Cardinals at Atlanta Falcons – Open: -10.5, 46, Move: -9.5, 44

    The Falcons fell to the Saints last week and are no longer undefeated, but the betting public isn’t shying away from backing Atlanta.

    “The majority of public money (70%) is still backing the Falcons and laying the big number,” Perry said. “But this could also be a fade Arizona play for many as the Cards are 0-5-1 ATS in their last six games. The total has dipped, but only a point with us, going from 45 to 44.”

    San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos – Open: -7, 50.5, Move: -7.5, 48.5

    This huge AFC West matchup could go a long way in deciding the division. The Chargers have dropped four of their last five contests, only covering against lowly Kansas City during that stretch.

    “For the third week in a row, the Broncos are one of the most popular public plays,” according to Perry. "Over 77 percent of the money is on Denver and wiseguys do seem to like the under here.”

    Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers – Open: -3.5, 46, Move: +3.5, 40

    This game has given linesmakers nightmares this week, with most books adjusting their odds considerably once the news of the Ben Roethlisberger injury broke. But surprisingly, the betting public still has faith that the Steelers can get the job done at home with a strong defense and running game.

    “Only 57 percent of the cash is on the Ravens -3.5, even though Big Ben will be out,” Perry said.

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    • #17
      NFL

      Week 11


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      Monday Night Football: Bears at 49ers
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      Chicago Bears at San Francisco 49ers (-7, 37)

      Monday's night's marquee matchup between the host San Francisco 49ers and Chicago Bears hardly lacked for storylines, pitting a pair of legitimate Super Bowl contenders featuring two of the top defenses in the league. However, it's the off-field news that has dominated the headlines leading into the encounter between the division leaders of the NFC West and North. Quarterbacks Alex Smith and Jay Cutler were each knocked out of last week's game with concussions, and on Thursday came the news that 49ers coach Jim Harbaugh was undergoing a minor procedure for an irregular heartbeat.

      Harbaugh, according to the team, was expected back at the team's facility Friday. ESPN reported that he made a brief appearance at practice Thursday and was sent home upon the recommendation of team doctors. Smith was given the green-light to practice on a limited basis Wednesday and Thursday wearing a no-contact jersey but still must be medically cleared to play. Cutler did not practice this week and will give way to backup Jason Campbell.

      TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

      LINE: 49ers -7, O/U 37.

      WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the mid-50s with under partly cloudy skies. Winds will blow out of the south at 9 mph.

      ABOUT THE BEARS (7-2): Last season, Cutler had directed the Bears to five straight wins and a 7-3 record before suffering a broken thumb. The Bears went on to lose five straight with untested Caleb Hanie and retread Josh McCown under center. That's the main reason Chicago upgraded its backup plan by signing Campbell. The former Oakland Raiders QB was 11-for-19 for 94 yards in the second half of last week's 13-6 home loss to Houston. Running backs Matt Forte and Michael Bush may get a heavier workload against a defense that has suddenly been more vulnerable against the run, allowing a pair of 100-yard rushers. Brandon Marshall has 51 catches and six touchdowns in the last six games, and Chicago will again lean on a defense that has a league-high 19 interceptions, including seven for TDs.

      ABOUT THE 49ERS (6-2-1): San Francisco would be in a tie with Chicago for the second-best record in the NFC had David Akers converted a 41-yard field goal in overtime in last week's 24-24 tie with St. Louis. The 49ers also benefited from two penalties in OT that prevented the Rams from winning. One big positive for the Niners was the play of second-year QB Colin Kaepernick after Smith was forced to leave the game with blurred vision. Kaepernick guided San Francisco to 17 fourth-quarter points, completing 11 of 17 passes for 117 yards and running for 66 yards and a touchdown on eight carries. Frank Gore just missed his fourth 100-yard game, rushing for 97 yards and a TD, and Michael Crabtree had five catches for 70 yards and his third scoring reception in two games.

      TRENDS:

      * Bears are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games.
      * 49ers are 1-4 ATS in their last five vs. NFC foes.
      * Home team is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings.
      * Under is 5-0-1 in 49ers’ last six vs. a team with a winning record.

      EXTRA POINTS:

      1. San Francisco and Chicago rank 1-2 in the league in fewest points allowed with 14.1 and 14.8, respectively.

      2. Campbell, a first-round pick of Washington in 2005, has made 70 career starts. He has thrown for 74 TDs and 50 interceptions.

      3. The teams last met in San Francisco in November 2009, with the 49ers intercepting Cutler five times in a 10-6 victory. The 49ers have also won all three postseason meetings.


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      • #18
        NFL

        Week 11


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        Tale of the tape: Bears at 49ers
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        Take a quick glance at the tale of the tape for Monday night’s showdown between the Chicago Bears and San Francisco 49ers

        Offense

        Bears QB Jay Cutler (concussion) did not practice this week and will give way to backup Jason Campbell. So, RBs Matt Forte and Michael Bush may get a heavier workload against a San Francisco defense that has suddenly been more vulnerable against the run. No. 1 WR Brandon Marshall has 51 catches and six touchdowns in the last six games

        Niners’ QB Alex Smith (concussion) is questionable and has practiced in a limited fashion throughout the week. If he can’t suit up, backup Colin Kaepernick will be under center. Kaepernick guided San Francisco to 17 fourth-quarter points last week against the Rams in relief of Smith, completing 11 of 17 passes for 117 yards while rushing for 66 yards and a touchdown on eight carries. San Francisco boasts the top-rated rushing offense in the league at 170.2 yards per game for an average of 5.6 yards per carry.

        Edge: 49ers


        Defense


        San Francisco and Chicago rank 1-2 in the league in fewest points allowed with 14.1 and 14.8, respectively. Chicago will lean on a defense that has a league-high 19 interceptions, including seven for TDs. The Bears’ stop unit is also the fourth-best at stopping the run. The Niners are fifth defending the pass and through nine games, San Francisco has given up just 292.1 yards per game.

        Edge: Bears


        Special teams


        Bears punter Adam Podlesh has been in a slump, prompting special teams coordinator Dave Toub to bring in three punters for tryouts this week. Podlesh ranks 30th in the league in punting average (41.7). Devin Hester hasn’t been leaving would-be tacklers in the dust, slowed by injury this season, but he's still the greatest returner in NFL history.

        David Akers missed a field goal that would have won the game for the Niners in overtime last week. The Rams also succeeded in converting two fake punts against San Francisco. The second fake came on the Rams final drive of regulation, which resulted in a touchdown and a St. Louis lead. The 49ers are allowing foes to average 28.8 yards per kickoff return (second worst in the NFL) and 9.6 yards per punt return including a TD in Week 1.

        Edge: Bears


        Word on the street


        "I don't think so. They're kind of similar quarterbacks, strong armed guys, athletic. He's been experienced. He's played in the league a long time as a starter, both in Washington and Oakland. So, I really don't think their offense will change that much." - San Francisco defensive coordinator Vic Fangio on if the Chicago offense changes much with Jason Campbell in instead of Jay Cutler.

        "We didn’t handle last year well...Of course, it’s documented we didn’t. That’s why we went out and we felt like we’ve upgraded the position. I know the guys have a lot of confidence in Jason. He’s played a lot of football, started a lot of games, so yeah, we’re hopeful. That’s why we can’t wait to get to this game. Injuries do happen, and we’ll see exactly where we are, but we think we’re going to be OK." - Bears coach Lovie Smith on the team's struggles last season when Cutler fell to injury and his starter Monday, Jason Campbell.


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