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**Udog** · 11-15-2012, 08:52 AM

NFL odds: Week 11 opening line report

Week 11 of the NFL season is boiling over with bad blood.

There are some classic football grudge matches on the board, which always make sledding a little more rough for NFL handicappers. Some of these rivalries have lost their shine while others are as heated as ever.

Perhaps the most intriguing meeting between divisional foes is the Baltimore Ravens facing the Pittsburgh Steelers at Heinz Field on Sunday Night Football. Oddsmakers have posted the Steelers, who face the Kansas City Chiefs on Monday Night Football in Week 10, as 3.5-point home favorites.

While the spread seems on par with a similar meeting between these AFC North foes in Week 9 last year, the total is much higher than bettors are used to when it comes to the Ravens versus the Steelers.

Books have posted a number of 46-points, with Baltimore flexing its offensive muscles in a 55-20 win over the Oakland Raiders Sunday and Pittsburgh putting up points in its three straight wins heading into Monday.

“Normally, for a Baltimore-Pittsburgh game, you’d expect to see a total of 34 or 36 points,” Peter Korner, founder of the Nevada-based odds service, The Sports Club, told Covers. “But Baltimore has proved it can put points up there and Pittsburgh is no slouch. It's a bit of a sign that times are changing.”

Since 2001, in the regular season and playoffs, the Ravens and Steelers have combined to go 16-8-1 over/under, including topping the total in both meetings last season. They have faced an average total of 36.2 points in that span and the highest number for one of those contests was 43 points, which finished in a push (Steelers won 23-20 at home in Week 16 of the 2009 season).

Korner says now is the time of year when the weather has a big impact on how they set and bet NFL totals. The extended forecast for Sunday night is calling for cloudy skies and temperatures in the high 30s.

“That cold, damp East Coast weather could play into the total for this game,” says Korner. “But that’s not a problem if people want to take the under.”

San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos (-7.5, 49.5)

This AFC West rivalry used to decide who had the inside track on the division crown. But, looking at the early spread for this game, it’s easy to see which way the power has shifted.

Denver, which has won four in a row, opened as high as an 8-point favorite online and Korner wouldn’t be surprised to see this spread go higher by kickoff.

“Denver looks great and this seems like the perfect scenario – at home, on that grass and showing well,” he says. “San Diego hasn’t been showing it at all. The die-hard dog fans may wait and see how high this will go but I expect nothing but Denver money. Books will need San Diego by the time this kicks off.”

The Chargers lost 35-24 to the Broncos at home on Monday Night Football in Week 6, blowing a 24-0 halftime lead. San Diego has since gone 1-2 SU, most recently losing to Tampa Bay 34-24 Sunday.

Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots (-9.5, 53)

The Colts and Patriots used to run the roost in the AFC and every time they met, it felt like the Super Bowl.

A lot has changed since those days. Tom Brady is still doing work in New England, but Indianapolis is under the command of a new premier passer. Rookie QB Andrew Luck, the top pick in the NFL draft, has helped lead the Colts to four straight wins.

Books have Luck and Indianapolis flirting with a 10-point spread, after early action on the Colts dropped the line to single digits.

Korner says comparing Indianapolis to Buffalo, which lost 37-31 to the Patriots as a 13.5-point road underdog Sunday, could shed a little light on where this spread is heading.

“We know Indy is a much better team than Buffalo,” he says. “New England could blow them out, but the Colts could see what the Bills did last week and, with Indianapolis coming in as hot as they are, this could turn out to be a great game.”

Chicago Bears at San Francisco 49ers (-3, 38)

Injuries to the two starting quarterbacks have this game off the board at the majority of shops. Korner and his crew sent out a suggested spread of 49ers -3, giving the field-goal edge to the home team.

Korner says the injury to Bears QB Jay Cutler hurts more than the injury to 49ers QB Alex Smith, what with the game in San Francisco and the emergence of backup Colin Kaepernick as a threat under center for the Niners.

Kaepernick passed for 117 yards and added 66 yards on the ground and a TD in place of Smith, who left Sunday’s 24-24 tie game with St. Louis after a helmet-to-helmet hit.

Cutler also suffered a head injury in the Sunday night loss to Houston. His replacement, veteran passer Jason Campbell, threw for 94 yards on 11-for-19 passing after stepping under center late in the second quarter.

“The difference is larger for the Bears quarterback,” says Korner. “(Cutler is) big. He’s the guy running the show and a big reason why they’re playing so well.”

The total for this Monday night game was sent out at 38, which would tie as the lowest total on the Week 11 board (St. Louis at New York is set at 38 points).

**Udog** · 11-15-2012, 08:52 AM

Where the action is: NFL mid-week line moves

NFL Week 11 lines have been out and about since Sunday and early action has already forced sportsbooks to adjust their original numbers.

We go off the Strip to the historic Golden Nugget and talk to race and sportsbook supervisor Aaron Kessler about the biggest moves on the Week 11 board.

Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills – Open: Pick, Move: -2

Some shops opened this AFC North showdown as a pick’em, but instant action on the home side has moved this spread to Bills -2.

Kessler says last week’s games - a strong showing by Buffalo versus New England and a horrible loss for Miami versus Tennessee - are still fresh in the minds of bettors.

“Miami had a bad game, and Buffalo had a good game. The way the public goes, I’m surprised it’s only at -1.5,” Kessler told Covers. “But I’d be surprised if this gets up around three.”

Cleveland Browns at Dallas Cowboys – Open: -9.5, Move: -7.5

Sharp money has sided with the road team, knocking two points off the opening spread at most books. Cleveland, while just 2-7 SU, has shown plenty of fight against good teams this season.

“Cleveland is not as bad as people think,” says Kessler. “This is purely a wise-guy move. The average bettor off the street isn’t walking in and saying, ‘Gimmie the Browns’. They’re a pitiful team but I don’t label them with Jacksonville or Kansas City. They’re just not appealing to the eye, and therefore not a heavily bet team.”

Kessler expects the public money on Dallas, coming off a strong showing versus Philadelphia, to balance out the sharp action and close this spread around -8.

Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers – Open: -3.5, Move: +3.5

Ben Roethlisberger’s shoulder injury has swung this spread a touchdown, which may be a little too much according to some expert handicappers. Kessler took this game off the board after Roethlisberger went down Monday night, but not before taking some money on the Steelers.

The total has also seen a major adjustment, going from 46 points to 41. Kessler doesn’t think that number is too high, even with Big Ben sidelined.

“Scoring is so far up this year, and the Ravens showed last week that they’ll put it on teams (winning 55-20 versus Oakland),” he says.

San Diego Chargers at Denver Broncos – Open: 50.5, Move: 48

The total for this AFC West grudge match is slowing slimming down, with early action on the under.

Denver has hung big scores on its recent opponents, putting up an average of 34 points during its current four-game winning streak. However, bettors don’t think San Diego can hold up its end of the bargain, especially after last week’s loss to Tampa Bay.

“(Philip) Rivers has looked atrocious lately,” Kessler says of San Diego’s QB, who has thrown 12 INTs including two last weekend. “He’s looked so bad, you almost want to bump up the total because he’s giving the other team a touchdown.”

As for the spread, Kessler says they’re trying to stay high on Denver with bettors remembering what happened the last time these division foes met – a 35-24 Denver win after trailing 24-0 at halftime.

“Ever since that game, (San Diego) hasn’t been the same and they’ve gone in the tank,” he says.

**Udog** · 11-15-2012, 08:52 AM

NFL
Dunkel

Week 11

Miami at Buffalo
The Bills look to take advantage of a Miami team that is coming off a 37-3 loss to Tennessee and is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game. Buffalo is the pick (-1) according to Dunkel, which has the Bills favored by 3. Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (-1). Here are all of this week's picks.

THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 15

Game 305-306: Miami at Buffalo (8:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Miami 127.868; Buffalo 130.716
Dunkel Line: Buffalo by 3; 42
Vegas Line: Buffalo by 1; 45 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (-1); Under

SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 18

Game 411-412: Philadelphia at Washington (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Philadelphia 129.819; Washington 131.257
Dunkel Line: Washington by 1 1/2; 47
Vegas Line: Washington by 3 1/2; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Philadelphia (+3 1/2); Over

Game 413-414: Green Bay at Detroit (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Green Bay 138.533; Detroit 132.313
Dunkel Line: Green Bay by 6; 55
Vegas Line: Green Bay by 3; 51 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Green Bay (-3); Over

Game 415-416: Arizona at Atlanta (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Arizona 127.083; Atlanta 138.869
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 12; 42
Vegas Line: Atlanta by 9 1/2; 44
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-9 1/2); Under

Game 417-418: Tampa Bay at Carolina (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tampa Bay 136.290; Carolina 131.706
Dunkel Line: Tampa Bay by 4 1/2; 52
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay by 1; 49
Dunkel Pick: Tampa Bay (-1); Over

Game 419-420: Cleveland at Dallas (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cleveland 126.090; Dallas 136.507
Dunkel Line: Dallas by 10 1/2; 40
Vegas Line: Dallas by 7 1/2; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (-7 1/2); Under

Game 421-422: NY Jets at St. Louis (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Jets 131.712; St. Louis 130.668
Dunkel Line: NY Jets by 1;
Vegas Line: St. Louis by 3 1/2;
Dunkel Pick: NY Jets (+3 1/2);

Game 423-424: Indianapolis at New England (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indianapolis 130.891; New England 142.907
Dunkel Line: New England by 12; 49
Vegas Line: New England by 9; 53 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New England (-9); Under

Game 425-426: Jacksonville at Houston (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Jacksonville 125.085; Houston 138.245
Dunkel Line: Houston by 13; 36
Vegas Line: Houston by 16; 40 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Jacksonville (+16); Under

Game 427-428: Cincinnati at Kansas City (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Cincinnati 126.723; Kansas City 124.942
Dunkel Line: Cincinnati by 2; 47
Vegas Line: Cincinnati by 3 1/2; 43 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Kansas City (+3 1/2); Over

Game 429-430: New Orleans at Oakland (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 134.547; Oakland 125.594
Dunkel Line: New Orleans by 9; 51
Vegas Line: New Orleans by 4 1/2; 54 1/2
Dunkel Pick: New Orleans (-4 1/2); Under

Game 431-432: San Diego at Denver (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego 130.439; Denver 140.980
Dunkel Line: Denver by 10 1/2; 50
Vegas Line: Denver by 7 1/2; 48 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Denver (-7 1/2); Over

Game 433-434: Baltimore at Pittsburgh (8:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Baltimore 134.929; Pittsburgh 137.073
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 2; 44
Vegas Line: Baltimore by 3 1/2; 41
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (+3 1/2); Over

MONDAY, NOVEMBER 19

Game 435-436: Chicago at San Francisco (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Chicago 140.855; San Francisco 140.167
Dunkel Line: Chicago by 1; 36
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 5; 39
Dunkel Pick: Chicago (+5); Under

**Udog** · 11-15-2012, 08:53 AM

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 11

Thursday, November 15

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MIAMI (4 - 5) at BUFFALO (3 - 6) - 11/15/2012, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in road games over the last 3 seasons.
MIAMI is 15-6 ATS (+8.4 Units) in road lined games over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 3-1 against the spread versus BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 3-1 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Sunday, November 18

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PHILADELPHIA (3 - 6) at WASHINGTON (3 - 6) - 11/18/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PHILADELPHIA is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) in all games this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 1-7 ATS (-6.7 Units) in all lined games this season.
PHILADELPHIA is 148-112 ATS (+24.8 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 27-47 ATS (-24.7 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 47-81 ATS (-42.1 Units) as a favorite since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 65-92 ATS (-36.2 Units) in home games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 65-92 ATS (-36.2 Units) in home lined games since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 65-92 ATS (-36.2 Units) in home games in games played on a grass field since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 16-37 ATS (-24.7 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
WASHINGTON is 9-22 ATS (-15.2 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 3-1 against the spread versus WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 3-1 straight up against WASHINGTON over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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GREEN BAY (6 - 3) at DETROIT (4 - 5) - 11/18/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 32-53 ATS (-26.3 Units) in November games since 1992.
DETROIT is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.
DETROIT is 29-47 ATS (-22.7 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
DETROIT is 2-2 against the spread versus GREEN BAY over the last 3 seasons
GREEN BAY is 3-1 straight up against DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ARIZONA (4 - 5) at ATLANTA (8 - 1) - 11/18/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ARIZONA is 15-29 ATS (-16.9 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive losses since 1992.
ATLANTA is 17-7 ATS (+9.3 Units) in all games where the total is between 42.5 and 49 points over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ATLANTA is 1-0 against the spread versus ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
ATLANTA is 1-0 straight up against ARIZONA over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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TAMPA BAY (5 - 4) at CAROLINA (2 - 7) - 11/18/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CAROLINA is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
TAMPA BAY is 3-2 against the spread versus CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
TAMPA BAY is 3-2 straight up against CAROLINA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CLEVELAND (2 - 7) at DALLAS (4 - 5) - 11/18/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 33-17 ATS (+14.3 Units) in home games in November games since 1992.
DALLAS is 30-15 ATS (+13.5 Units) in home games in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
DALLAS is 3-12 ATS (-10.2 Units) as a favorite of 3.5 to 9.5 points over the last 3 seasons.
DALLAS is 6-18 ATS (-13.8 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
DALLAS is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 2-9 ATS (-7.9 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) off a division game over the last 3 seasons.
DALLAS is 4-12 ATS (-9.2 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NY JETS (3 - 6) at ST LOUIS (3 - 5 - 1) - 11/18/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 124-160 ATS (-52.0 Units) in all games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 124-160 ATS (-52.0 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 96-127 ATS (-43.7 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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INDIANAPOLIS (6 - 3) at NEW ENGLAND (6 - 3) - 11/18/2012, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 149-111 ATS (+26.9 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 63-40 ATS (+19.0 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
INDIANAPOLIS is 2-0 against the spread versus NEW ENGLAND over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 2-0 straight up against INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
2 of 2 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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JACKSONVILLE (1 - 8) at HOUSTON (8 - 1) - 11/18/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 19-7 ATS (+11.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 13-5 ATS (+7.5 Units) as a favorite over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in all games where the total is between 35.5 and 42 points over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 16-4 ATS (+11.6 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in home games versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
HOUSTON is 7-1 ATS (+5.9 Units) in games played on a grass field this season.

Head-to-Head Series History
HOUSTON is 3-1 against the spread versus JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
HOUSTON is 4-1 straight up against JACKSONVILLE over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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CINCINNATI (4 - 5) at KANSAS CITY (1 - 8) - 11/18/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
CINCINNATI is 106-143 ATS (-51.3 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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NEW ORLEANS (4 - 5) at OAKLAND (3 - 6) - 11/18/2012, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 18-9 ATS (+8.1 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 18-9 ATS (+8.1 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
OAKLAND is 28-63 ATS (-41.3 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
OAKLAND is 14-34 ATS (-23.4 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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SAN DIEGO (4 - 5) at DENVER (6 - 3) - 11/18/2012, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in November games over the last 2 seasons.
DENVER is 43-68 ATS (-31.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
DENVER is 28-47 ATS (-23.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
DENVER is 3-2 against the spread versus SAN DIEGO over the last 3 seasons
SAN DIEGO is 3-2 straight up against DENVER over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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BALTIMORE (7 - 2) at PITTSBURGH (6 - 3) - 11/18/2012, 8:20 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
BALTIMORE is 3-2 against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 3-2 straight up against PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Monday, November 19

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CHICAGO (7 - 2) at SAN FRANCISCO (6 - 2 - 1) - 11/19/2012, 8:30 PM
There are no Top Trends with records of significance that apply to this game.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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**Udog** · 11-15-2012, 08:53 AM

NFL
Short Sheet

Week 11

Thursday, November 15, 2012

(TC) Miami at Buffalo, 8:25 ET NFL
Miami: 6-0 ATS away off a home game
Buffalo: 13-4 Over playing on artificial turf

Sunday, November 18, 2012

Philadelphia at Washington, 1:00 ET
Philadelphia: 26-9 Under off a combined score of 60+ points
Washington: 1-5 ATS after scoring 14 points or less

Green Bay at Detroit, 1:00 ET
Green Bay: 7-3 Over with a total of 49.5+ points
Detroit: 12-28 ATS off ATS wins in 4 or 5 of their last 6 games

Arizona at Atlanta, 1:00 ET
Arizona: 15-29 ATS away off BB losses
Atlanta: 6-0 ATS at home off a loss

Tampa Bay at Carolina, 1:00 ET
Tampa Bay: 28-12 ATS after scoring 30+ points
Carolina: 4-13 ATS after losing 3 of their last 4 games

Cleveland at Dallas, 1:00 ET
Cleveland: 13-4 Under as an underdog
Dallas: 3-12 ATS as a home favorite

NY Jets at St. Louis, 1:00 ET
NY Jets: 8-19 ATS off a road loss by 14+ points
St. Louis: 14-5 Under with a line of +3 to -3

(TC) Indianapolis at New England, 4:25 ET
Indianapolis: 28-13 ATS away after allowing 14 points or less
New England: 9-1 Over at home off 3+ wins

Jacksonville at Houston, 1:00 ET
Jacksonville: 8-1 Under vs. division opponents
Houston: 16-4 ATS vs. conference opponents

Cincinnati at Kansas City, 1:00 ET
Cincinnati: 1-5 ATS vs. conference opponents
Kansas City: 8-1 Under at home in the second half of the season

New Orleans at Oakland, 4:05 ET
New Orleans: 9-2 ATS off a home win
Oakland: 14-28 ATS as a home underdog of 7 points or less

San Diego at Denver, 4:25 ET
San Diego: 1-11 ATS off an Over
Denver: 6-0 ATS in November

(TC) Baltimore at Pittsburgh, 8:30 ET NBC
Baltimore: 16-3 Under off BB ATS wins as a favorite
Pittsburgh: 9-5 ATS vs. division opponents

Monday, November 19, 2012

(TC) Chicago at San Francisco, 8:40 ET ESPN
Chicago: 10-3 ATS after winning 2 of their last 3 games
San Francisco: 15-4 Under off a home game

** Week 11 Byes: Minnesota, NY Giants, Seattle, Tennessee **

(TC) = Time Change

**Udog** · 11-15-2012, 08:55 AM

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 11

Dolphins (4-5) @ Bills (3-6)-- Two fading teams who really need a win. Miami won six of last eight series games, winning last two played here, 15-10/30-23; Fish are 4-0 when they win turnover margin, 0-5 when they don't. Bills haven't had takeaway in last three games (-6); they're 0-6 when they allow more than 17 points. Dolphins are 3-1 as road dogs; since '08, they're 23-8-1 against spread when getting points on road. Buffalo lost its last three games, allowing 35-21-37 points; they're 1-2 at home, 2-2 as faves, 1-1 at home. Home teams are 1-5 vs spread in AFC East divisional games this year. Under is 4-0-1 in last five Miami games, 3-6 in last nine Buffalo games, 0-3 at home.

Eagles (3-6) @ Redskins (3-6)-- Free-falling Iggles likely to give rookie Foles his first NFL start with Vick having concussion; they've lost last five games, giving up 30.8 ppg in last four- they've changed DC's, hasn't helped. Redskins lost last three games, scoring 12-13 points in last two games (no takeaways, after 16 in first seven games); they're 1-3 at home, but are 0-4 this year when scoring less than 24 points. Philly won five of last six series games, taking last three by 31-7-24 points; Eagles won five of last six visits here, winning last three by 10-31-7. Home teams are 0-5 vs spread in NFC East divisional games. Three of last four Philly games, six of nine Redskin games went over the total. Washington is 0-4 vs spread in last four post-bye games.

Packers (6-3) @ Lions (4-5)-- Green Bay won 12 of last 13 series games, taking five of last six visits here (Rodgers didn't play in loss) with all five wins by 7+ points. Three of last four series games were decided by 4 or less points. Since '04, Green Bay is 8-4 as a road favorite in divisional games. Packers won five of last six (6-0 vs spread) in last six post-bye games; they're 2-2 away from home- this is their 4th game in dome this year. Detroit is 2-1 at home, with only loss 20-13 to Vikings (Minnesota didn't have offensive TD in game, but had PR/KR for TDs). Underdogs covered four of first five NFC North divisional games. Five of last six Packer games, four of last five Detroit games went over total.

Cardinals (4-5) @ Falcons (8-1)-- Since 2008, Atlanta is 17-3-1 vs spread when they lost previous week; they lost for first time last week in Superdome, are 4-0 at home this year, 2-2 as home favorites, winning by 6-2-3-6 points, so hard to lay double digits with them. Home side won five in row and nine of last 10 series games, with average total in last three, 53.0; Cardinals lost last five visits here, with three losses by 23+ points- they lost 41-7 in last visit here, two years ago. Redbirds lost last five games after 4-0 start, scoring 10.6 ppg; they won all four times they scored 20+ points. Arizona is 1-5 vs spread in last six post-bye games. NFC South teams are 8-6 vs spread in non-divisional games, 6-6 at home; NFC West underdogs are 10-6, 6-5 on foreign soil.

Buccaneers (5-4) @ Panthers (2-7)-- Tampa Bay is finding ways to win; in last week's win over San Diego, they had blocked punt for TD and defensive TD. In their last three games, Bucs scored 36-42-34 points; they've got 20 TDs on last 54 drives in last five games, and are 4-0 vs spread on road. Carolina looked like beaten team when they got smoked by Denver last week; they lost 16-10 (-2.5) in season opener down in Tampa; Panthers ran ball only 13 times for 10 yards- five of their seven losses are by 6 or less points. Underdogs covered four of first five NFC South divisional games. Last six Tampa Bay games went over total; three of Panthers' last four home games stayed under.

Browns (2-7) @ Cowboys (4-5)-- Sandwich game (Eagles/Redskins) for Dallas team that kept season alive with win in Philly; they're 1-2 at home this year, 0-3 vs spread, with only win 16-10 (-7.5) over Bucs. Cleveland is 1-3 as a road dog, losing all four games by 7-7-14-4 points- they're 5-8-2 in last 15 games against NFC teams. Dallas covered five of last six vs AFC opponents. Favorites are 10-1 vs spread in Cleveland's post-bye games, with Browns 0-6 as post-bye dogs; they've lost both meetings with Cowboys, 28-10/19-12. NFC East favorites are 3-12 vs spread in non-divisional games, 2-7 at home; AFC North road underdogs are 3-4. Five of last seven Cleveland games stayed under the total.

Jets (3-6) @ Rams (3-5-1)-- Mark Sanchez faced his old college coach last week in Seattle; he faces his old offensive coordinator here, as Schottenheimer landed in St Louis after Jets ran him out of town. Two teams with similar records going in opposite directions; Jets lost last three games, last two by 58-16 combined score. Only Jet TD last week was scored by defense. Rams are 0-3-1 in last four games, but tied 49ers at Candlestick last week, showing improvement. St Louis is 3-1 at home, with only loss to Packers- they're favored for first time this year, but are 3-0 in games where the spread was 3 or less points. NFC West non-divisional home favorites are 4-3; AFC East road underdogs are 4-5.

Colts (6-3) @ Patriots (6-3)-- Who thought this would be a big game this year? New England is 1-3 as home favorite, with wins by 10-3-6 points, and a loss to Arizona- they allowed 20+ points in seven of last eight games. Colts are playing inspired ball with HC Pagano ill; they've won/covered last four games, are 4-2 as underdogs, 1-2 on road, but two of their three losses were by 20-26 points (also lost to Jags by 5). Patriots won last two series games (31-28/31-24) after losing five of previous six to Indy; last seven series games were decided by 7 or less points. AFC East favorites are 6-5 vs spread, 3-3 at home; AFC South dogs are 10-8, 5-4 on foreign soil. Last seven Patriot games went over total; under is 3-0-1 in Colts' last four.

Jaguars (1-8) @ Texans (8-1)-- Trap game for Houston, after national TV win vs Bears, before Thanksgiving Day in Detroit; they hammered Jags 27-7 (-7.5) back in Week 2, outrushing hosts 216-65, holding Jax to 117 total yards, seven 3/outs in 11 drives. Texans won last four series games by average score of 26-13; they are 4-1 as home favorites, winning home games by 20-24-30-12 points. Jaguars lost last six games (2-4 vs spread); they're 4-0 as road underdogs, losing away games by 3-3-9 points, with win at Indy- they had three extra days to prepare. Under is 5-3 in Jags' last eight games. Home teams are 1-4 vs spread in AFC South divisional tilts; home favorites are 7-16-1 league-wide in divisional games.

Bengals (4-5) @ Chiefs (1-8)-- First road game in five weeks for Bengals, who forced four turnovers in home upset of Giants last week; Cincy is 4-0 when it scores 27+ points, 0-5 when it doesn't- they're 2-2 on road, with dog covering last three. Chiefs allowed 24+ points in seven of nine games, losing 16-13 in slop in OT at Pittsburgh Monday- they have three TDs on last 55 drives, but finally had a lead on Monday. Home side won nine of last 11 series games, with Bengals losing six of last eight visits to Arrowhead. AFC West non-divisional underdogs are 5-9 vs spread, 2-2 at home; AFC North favorites are 3-9, 0-4 on road. Three of four Bengal road games, three of last four KC games went over total.

Saints (4-5) @ Raiders (3-6)-- Oakland gave up 42-55 points last two games (12 TDs allowed on last 27 drives) now explosive Saints come to town; if Freeman, Flacco averaged 7.6/10.0 ypa, what will Brees get? Oakland is 2-2 at home, with last three of those going over total; Raiders allowed average of 29.5 ppg at home this year. Saints won four of last five games; they're 1-3 on road, with only win by 7 at Tampa Bay- they covered last three tries as a favorite. Saints won five of last seven series games, winning last two played here, 13-10/31-26. NFC South favorites are 8-6 vs spread, 2-0 on road; AFC West underdogs are 5-9, 2-2 at home. Three of Saints' four road games went over total.

Chargers (4-5) @ Broncos (6-3)-- San Diego lost four of last five games, allowing four TDs on defense/special teams last four games; Denver won/covered four in row, scoring five TDs on defense/special teams. Broncos (+1.5) won 35-24 first time teams met in Week 6, forcing six SD turnovers (+3) in game Bolts led 24-0 at half. Denver scored 31+ points in all six wins; 21-25-21 in losses. San Diego allowed 7-13-34 points in last three games, but only one of three Buc TDs was allowed by defense. This is Norv Turner's last stand as Charger coach. Favorites are 4-2 in AFC West divisional games, 2-2 at home. Five of last six San Diego games, four of last five Bronco games went over the total.

Ravens (7-2) @ Steelers (6-3)-- Health of Roethlisberger's shoulder big concern for Steelers, who won last four games, but were lucky to do so with Leftwich under center in Heinz quagmire Monday night. Steelers are 4-0 at home, allowing average of 12.3 ppg; in last three games overall, they've allowed three TDs on 31 drives. Ravens are +9 in turnovers; they're 2-2 on road, woth wins over Browns, Chiefs, maybe two worst teams in NFL. Ravens scored TD on defense/special teams in four of seven wins. Baltimore swept series 35-7/23-20 LY; they've won two of last three visits here, are 4-3 in last seven series games overall. Last four Pittsburgh games stayed under total; three of last four Raven games went over.

Bears (7-2) @ 49ers (6-2-1)-- Both starting QB's got concussions last week; not sure if either will play, but both teams have decent backups. Home teams won last 10 series games; Bears lost last seven visits here, with last win in '85, season Chicago won only Super Bowl. Bears' only losses came in night games; they are 3-1 on road, with all three wins by 16+ points. Chicago was +16 in turnovers in first half of season, but was -2 in loss Sunday; they;ve turned ball over 8 times in last three games, as sputtering offense was hidden by aggressive defense. 49ers are 2-3 as home favorites, losing to Giants, tying Rams. NFC West non-divisional home favorites are 4-3 vs spread; NFC North road underdogs are 1-3.

**Udog** · 11-15-2012, 08:55 AM

NFL

Week 11

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Trend Report
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Thursday, November 15

8:20 PM
MIAMI vs. BUFFALO
Miami is 6-2 SU in its last 8 games when playing Buffalo
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Miami's last 12 games when playing Buffalo
The total has gone UNDER in 8 of Buffalo's last 12 games when playing Miami
Buffalo is 2-6 ATS in its last 8 games when playing Miami

Sunday, November 18

1:00 PM
GREEN BAY vs. DETROIT
Green Bay is 12-1 SU in its last 13 games when playing Detroit
Green Bay is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Detroit is 1-12 SU in its last 13 games when playing Green Bay
Detroit is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games at home

1:00 PM
JACKSONVILLE vs. HOUSTON
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Jacksonville's last 6 games on the road
Jacksonville is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Houston's last 6 games when playing Jacksonville
Houston is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games at home

1:00 PM
PHILADELPHIA vs. WASHINGTON
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Philadelphia's last 17 games when playing Washington
Philadelphia is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Washington
Washington is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing at home against Philadelphia
The total has gone UNDER in 12 of Washington's last 17 games when playing Philadelphia

1:00 PM
TAMPA BAY vs. CAROLINA
Tampa Bay is 5-14 SU in its last 19 games
Tampa Bay is 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games when playing on the road against Carolina
Carolina is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Carolina's last 8 games when playing at home against Tampa Bay

1:00 PM
CINCINNATI vs. KANSAS CITY
Cincinnati is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing on the road against Kansas City
Cincinnati is 4-8 ATS in its last 12 games when playing Kansas City
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Kansas City's last 8 games when playing Cincinnati
Kansas City is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games

1:00 PM
ARIZONA vs. ATLANTA
Arizona is 2-5 ATS in its last 7 games when playing Atlanta
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Arizona's last 5 games on the road
Atlanta is 8-1 SU in its last 9 games
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Atlanta's last 9 games when playing Arizona

1:00 PM
CLEVELAND vs. DALLAS
Cleveland is 0-5 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Cleveland is 2-13 SU in its last 15 games
Dallas is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games at home
Dallas is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games at home

1:00 PM
NY JETS vs. ST. LOUIS
NY Jets are 0-5 SU in their last 5 games when playing on the road against St. Louis
NY Jets are 1-7 SU in their last 8 games when playing St. Louis
St. Louis is 4-9 SU in its last 13 games at home
St. Louis is 7-1 SU in their last 8 games when playing NY Jets

4:05 PM
NEW ORLEANS vs. OAKLAND
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New Orleans's last 6 games on the road
New Orleans is 5-2 SU in its last 7 games when playing Oakland
Oakland is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Oakland's last 8 games at home

4:15 PM
SAN DIEGO vs. DENVER
The total has gone OVER in 6 of San Diego's last 9 games when playing Denver
San Diego is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Denver
Denver is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Denver's last 5 games

4:25 PM
INDIANAPOLIS vs. NEW ENGLAND
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Indianapolis's last 6 games when playing on the road against New England
Indianapolis is 2-11 SU in its last 13 games when playing on the road against New England
New England is 1-5 ATS in its last 6 games at home
New England is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games

8:20 PM
BALTIMORE vs. PITTSBURGH
The total has gone OVER in 7 of Baltimore's last 9 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
Baltimore is 6-1 SU in its last 7 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 6 games
Pittsburgh is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing at home against Baltimore

Monday, November 19

8:30 PM
CHICAGO vs. SAN FRANCISCO
Chicago is 3-10 ATS in its last 13 games when playing San Francisco
Chicago is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing San Francisco
San Francisco is 12-4-1 ATS in its last 17 games at home
San Francisco19-5-1 SU in its last 25 games

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**Udog** · 11-15-2012, 08:56 AM

NFL

Week 11

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Thursday Night Football: Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills
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Miami Dolphins at Buffalo Bills (-1, 46)

The slumping Miami Dolphins attempt to even their road record at 3-3 on Thursday night, when they visit the AFC East-rival Buffalo Bills. Miami, which had won two straight before their bye week, made it three in a row on Oct. 28 as they soundly thumped the New York Jets 30-9 on the road. But the Dolphins were edged by the Colts in Indianapolis the following week, dropping them to 2-3 away from home, and suffered their most lopsided home loss since 1968 on Sunday - a 37-3 defeat against Tennessee.

Buffalo will be trying to halt a three-game losing streak as it returns home after two straight on the road. The Bills lost a one-point decision at home to Tennessee on Oct. 21 and followed their bye week with setbacks at Houston and New England. Beginning Thursday, Buffalo will play five of its final seven games at home, including a Week 15 matchup against Seattle at Rogers Centre in Toronto.

TV: 8:20 p.m. ET, NFL Network.

LINE: This game opened at a pick at most books and action on the Bills has moved the spread to -1. The total has gone from 45 to 46 and has now settled at 45.5 at some markets.

WEATHER: The forecast is calling for cloudy skies and temperatures in the low 30s. Winds are expected to East at 5 mph.

ABOUT THE DOLPHINS (4-5, 4-5 ATS): Miami committed four turnovers Sunday that led to 20 points and allowed an opposing running back to gain 100 yards for the first time in 23 games as Chris Johnson rushed for 126 on 23 carries. Rookie quarterback Ryan Tannehill threw three interceptions and running back Reggie Bush had a costly fumble that earned him a seat on the bench in the first half. Tannehill had gone four consecutive games without a pick. He may have an easier time Thursday as Buffalo has the 25th-ranked pass defense.

ABOUT THE BILLS (3-6, 4-5 ATS): Buffalo never led Sunday as it lost to New England for the second time this season. Ryan Fitzpatrick connected with Donald Jones from two yards out with 7:47 remaining in the fourth quarter to get the Bills within 34-31. But after a Patriots field goal, the quarterback threw an interception in the end zone with 23 seconds left, ending Buffalo's hopes of notching its first win in 11 tries at Gillette Stadium since it opened in 2002. The Bills lost more than a game as running back Fred Jackson was ruled out of Thursday's game with a concussion after being hit in the head by Patriots linebacker Brandon Spikes late in Sunday's loss. C.J. Spiller will see the bulk of the action against Miami.

TRENDS:

* Dolphins are 6-2 ATS in their last eight meetings.
* Favorite is 7-3-1 ATS in their last 11 meetings.
* Dolphins are 5-1 ATS in their last six vs. AFC East.
* Bills are 1-4 ATS in their last five vs. AFC East.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Miami won both meetings last season by a combined score of 65-31.

2. Fitzpatrick passed for 337 yards Sunday, making him the fifth QB in Bills history to reach the 10,000-yard mark.

3. Buffalo announced the game, in which it will honor all branches of the military, is sold out.

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**Udog** · 11-15-2012, 08:56 AM

NFL

Week 11

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Tale of the tape: Dolphins at Bills
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An AFC East showdown takes the Thursday night spotlight when the Miami Dolphins visit the Buffalo Bills. We break down both sides in our tale of the tape:

Offense

The Dolphins, who average 105.8 yards on the ground per game, tried to spark their rushing offense last week versus Tennessee but mustered only 54 yards on 15 carries including a fumble from RB Reggie Bush. Miami has rushed for only 78.3 yards per game over its last three contests, and hasn’t done much to relieve the pressure on rookie QB Ryan Tannehill, who was intercepted three times in Week 10.

The Bills will be without RB Fred Jackson (concussion) Thursday, leaving the offense to lean on backup C.J. Spiller. That’s not necessarily a bad thing. Spiller averages 7.3 yards per carry this year – best in the NFL – and seems to make big plays whenever he touches the football. Buffalo put up a solid fight versus New England last Sunday, scoring 31 points and boasting a franchise-record 35 first downs. Quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick passed for 337 yards and two touchdowns in the loss.

Edge: Bills

Defense

Miami has looked to its defense to keep it in ball games this season, allowing just 20.7 points per game – eighth lowest in the NFL. The Dolphins front seven has done a great job plugging up the ground game, giving up 94.2 yards an outing, but that number must be taken with a grain of salt because of how bad Miami is at defending the pass. Opponents are putting up 278 yards through the air each time the Dolphins take the field. Those same opponents are averaging 11.7 yards per completion.

The Bills haven't been doing themselves any favors defensively, allowing at least 35 points in four of their last six games overall. They're giving up a whopping 6.4 yards per play on the season, and have been particularly poor against the run, allowing 5.5 yards per rush. On a positive note, the Dolphins don't appear poised to exploit that weakness, as they're averaging only 3.8 yards per rush. Buffalo has been fairly consistent in terms of its pass rush, averaging 2.7 sacks per game here at home.

Edge: Dolphins

Special teams

The Dolphins return game has been a big positive this season, as they're averaging well north of the league average at 12.3 yards per punt return, and 27.3 yards on kickoffs. Kicker Dan Carpenter has had a bit of an off year, converting on only 13 of 17 field goal attempts. With a sputtering red zone offense, Carpenter could certainly be a factor on Thursday night.

Buffalo has been even better returning punts, one of the league's best teams in that department, averaging 19.5 yards per return. The problem is, they've had a tough time defending punts, giving up 15 yards per return. On kickoff returns, they've been nothing more than average at 26.3 yards per return. Veteran kicker Ryan Lindell has made good on 9 of 10 field goal attempts.

Edge: Bills

Word on the street

"When you play like that, we need to make some corrections. We need to make improvements, even though we're in a semi-time crunch.'' Dolphins head coach Joe Philbin on the team's quick turn-around following Sunday's 37-3 drubbing at the hands of the Titans.

"As an offense, we're definitely going to miss him because he brings so much to our team. But this is familiar territory for me.'' Bills RB C.J. Spiller speaking about the injury to starting tailback Fred Jackson.

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**Udog** · 11-16-2012, 08:51 PM

NFL poolies betting cheat sheet: Week 11

Philadelphia at Washington (-3.5, 43.5)

Philadelphia suffered its fifth straight defeat with Sunday's 38-23 loss to Dallas and now limps into Washington on Sunday without the services of QB Michael Vick (concussion), according to multiple reports. Nick Foles will get the nod after completing 22 of 32 pass attempts for 219 yards with a touchdown and an interception in relief of Vick last week. Redskins feature back Alfred Morris, who is seventh in the league with 793 rushing yards, will look to exploit an Eagles defense which is allowing 4.5 yards per carry during the team's losing skid. Philadelphia has played under the total in its last six road games.

Green Bay at Detroit (3.5, 51.5)

The Packers look for their fifth consecutive win when they visit Detroit on Sunday. Green Bay has owned Detroit, winning 12 of the last 13 meetings. Aaron Rodgers has caught fire, throwing for 15 touchdowns and just one interception over the last four games. But the Pack will be without team sack leader Clay Matthews, who has been ruled out with a hamstring injury. Green Bay is 5-1 ATS in its last six games in Detroit.

Arizona at Atlanta (-9.5, 44)

Atlanta was the last NFL team clinging to perfection until a 31-27 loss at New Orleans last week while the Cardinals are coming off a much-needed bye week after losing five straight. Five of Arizona's nine games (three wins, two losses) have been decided by seven points or fewer, while the Falcons are 5-1 in such games. John Skelton is expected to make another start at QB for the Cards as Kevin Kolb will miss his fourth straight game with rib and shoulder injuries. The Arizona defense ranks second in the league against the pass, which should give the Cardinals a fighting chance against the Falcons' high-flying offense. These teams have played over the total in their last four meetings.

Tampa Bay at Carolina (1, 49)

The Buccaneers have won four of their past five games to surge back into the NFC playoff picture. Tampa Bay's unexpectedly explosive offense has put up 28 or more points in five straight games, thanks to the emergence of RB Doug Martin. The rookie is the only player in the NFL with over 800 rushing yards and 200 receiving yards. Tampa Bay's first four games were decided by a touchdown or less, but its past five have featured an average margin of 14.8 points. The Bucs have played over the total in their last six overall.

Cleveland at Dallas (-9.5, 43.5)

The Cowboys haven't registered back-to-back victories since a four-game winning streak in November 2011, but they have a golden chance against the Browns, who are trying to avoid a franchise-record 12th consecutive road loss. Cowboys RB DeMarco Murray (foot) is expected to miss his fifth straight game, putting Felix Jones in line for another start. Browns CB Joe Haden (oblique) missed practice Thursday and is a game-time decision for Sunday’s contest. Dallas is 0-6 ATS in its last six home games.

New York Jets at St. Louis (-3.5, 38.5)

New York is averaging fewer than 200 passing yards and has been held to 10 points or fewer in four of its six losses. Mark Sanchez has thrown nearly as many interceptions (nine) as touchdowns (10) and went just 9-of-22 for 124 yards and a pick in the 28-7 loss at Seattle last week. Steven Jackson, who rushed over 100 yards last week in San Francisco, could have a big day against a New York defense that ranks 30th against the run. These teams have played over the total in four of their last five meetings.

Jacksonville at Houston (-15, 40.5)

The Texans have rebounded from their only loss of the season with a vengeance, winning three straight while allowing just one touchdown and outscoring their opponents 77-28. Since defeating the Indianapolis Colts in Week 3, Jacksonville has given its fans little to cheer about, going 0-6 while scoring more than 15 points only once. Houston prevailed 27-7 in Week 2 against the Jags, who gained a franchise-low 117 yards in the loss. But surprisingly, Jacksonville is 5-0 ATS in its last five road games.

Cincinnati at Kansas City (3.5, 43.5)

The quarterback carrousel continues for the Chiefs, who are forced to play Matt Cassel for a third straight game while Brady Quinn recovers from a concussion. The Chiefs can’t score regardless of who is under center (16.2 ppg – 30th) and compound the issue by having the worst turnover differential in the league (-20). The only good news from Monday's loss to the Steelers was that Kansas City held a lead in regulation for the first time – ending the league’s longest streak of futility since 1929. The Bengals are coming off a big victory against the defending Super Bowl-champion New York Giants last week but have a few injury issues on defense. Standout rookie free agent LB Vontaze Burfict, who is second on the team with 62 tackles, is questionable due to an elbow injury. CB Nate Clements (knee) and S Reggie Nelson (hamstring) are also questionable.

New Orleans at Oakland (4.5, 54.5)

The Saints’ offense could be in for another big day Sunday when it visits Oakland. Drew Brees has owned the Raiders, passing for 1,248 yards, 13 TDs and no interceptions in his last six games against Oakland – all wins. The Raiders’ stop unit has surrendered 97 points over the last two weeks and is now allowing a league-worst 31.6 points per game. Running backs Darren McFadden and Mike Goodson are both dealing with high ankle sprains and are questionable. The Saints have won 13 straight November games and have covered in five of their last six overall.

San Diego at Denver (-8.5, 48.5)

The Broncos posted one of the greatest comebacks in NFL history when they rallied from a 24-point halftime deficit to defeat the Chargers 35-24 at San Diego earlier in the season. The Chargers turned the ball over six times in the game, five of those coming in the second half. With Peyton Manning back in Pro Bowl form, Denver has won four straight and could put a stranglehold on the division title if it makes it five in row on Sunday. The Broncos are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.

Indianapolis at New England (-9.5, 54.5)

The Colts are 5-1 since head coach Chuck Pagano was diagnosed with leukemia as his situation has galvanized the team. However, Indianapolis does have a few key injuries to deal with this week. Linebacker Dwight Freeney has been less than 100 percent for most of the season and the Colts placed CB Jerraud Powers on IR earlier in this week. While the Patriots continue to score with ease, leading the NFL in scoring average at 33.2 points, the defense ranks 29th against the pass and 25th overall. The Colts are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall, while the Patriots are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games.

Baltimore at Pittsburgh (3.5, 40)

Steelers QB Ben Roethlisberger was knocked out of Monday’s overtime win against Kansas City with a shoulder injury and has been ruled out against the Ravens. Veteran signal-caller Byron Leftwich, who hasn’t started a game since 2009, has been named Big Ben's replacement. While Roethlisberger’s absence will help the Ravens’ defense, Joe Flacco will still have to go up against the best secondary in the league. Baltimore dominated the Raiders last Sunday in a 55-20 victory, scoring three touchdowns in the passing game, two in the running game and two on special teams. The under is 7-0 in Pittsburgh’s last seven home games.

Chicago at San Francisco (OFF)

Off-field news has dominated the headlines leading up to this Monday night clash. Quarterbacks Alex Smith and Jay Cutler were each knocked out of their respective games last week with concussions and on Thursday news broke that 49ers coach Jim Harbaugh was undergoing a minor procedure for an irregular heartbeat. Sportsbooks have been keeping their lines off the board, waiting for an update on the extent of the injuries to both starting QBs before making a decision. Cutler was officially ruled out of action by the team Friday afternoon, which means Jason Campbell will be under center. San Francisco and Chicago rank 1-2 in the league in fewest points allowed with 14.1 and 14.8, respectively. The Bears are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games.

**Udog** · 11-18-2012, 07:23 AM

NFL weather watch: Chance of rain in Oakland

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers (1, 48)

Site: Bank of America Stadium

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the mid-50s under partly cloudy skies. Winds will blow out of the NNE at 11 mph.

Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs (3.5, 43.5)

Site: Arrowhead Stadium

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the low-60s under partly cloudy skies. Winds will blow out of the south at 13 mph.

New Orleans Saints at Oakland Raiders (4.5, 54.5)

Site: O.co Coliseum

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the high-50s with a 40 percent chance of rain. Winds will blow out of the south at 6 mph.

**Udog** · 11-18-2012, 07:27 AM

NFL

Week 11

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Packers at Lions: What bettors need to know
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Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (3, 52)

The Green Bay Packers entered their bye as one of the league's hottest teams and came out of it having inched closer to the NFC North-leading Chicago Bears. The Packers will look to ride the momentum as they seek their fifth consecutive win against the host Detroit Lions on Sunday. Aaron Rodgers set an absurdly high standard in piloting Green Bay to a 15-1 mark in 2011-12, but his stellar play during the winning streak has mirrored that of his MVP season. A loss could deliver a fatal blow to the postseason hopes of the Lions, who are in the cellar of the only division that features three teams at least two games over .500. The Packers have also owned Detroit, winning 12 of the last 13 meetings.

TV: 1 p.m. ET, FOX.

LINE: Packers -3, O/U 52.

ABOUT THE PACKERS (6-3): Rodgers has thrown for 15 touchdowns and one interception in the last four games despite missing his favorite two targets in the latter two. James Jones and second-year standout Randall Cobb have elevated their games in the absences of injured wideouts Jordy Nelson and Greg Jennings, who combined for 24 scores last season. Jones is tied for second in the league with eight TD receptions and Cobb has five scores in the last three games. Cobb also contributed to a rushing attack that produced a season-high 176 yards in a 31-17 win over Arizona prior to the bye. Linebacker Clay Matthews, who leads the team with nine sacks, has been ruled out with a hamstring injury.

ABOUT THE LIONS (4-5): Detroit continued a troubling season-long trend of falling behind early and having to play catch-up in last week's 34-24 loss in Minnesota that halted a two-game winning streak. Matthew Stafford threw for 329 yards and three touchdowns, but each score came after the Lions fell into a 16-3 hole early in the third quarter. Calvin Johnson, who has been bothered by a sore knee, came to life with 11 receptions for 207 yards and a touchdown but has only found the end zone twice after finishing second in the NFL with 16 TD receptions last season. A string of early deficits has contributed to the dramatic inconsistency in the running game, which managed a meager 60 yards against the Vikings after amassing 149 yards and four TDs the previous week.

TRENDS:

* Packers are 5-0 ATS in their last five vs. NFC North.
* Lions are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.
* Over is 5-1 in Packers’ last six games overall.
* Over is 8-2-1 in Lions’ last 11 games overall.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Rodgers is the first quarterback in league history to throw 25 TD passes in the first nine games in back-to-back seasons.

2. Johnson had a career-high 244 yards and a TD on 11 catches in a 45-41 loss at Green Bay on Jan. 1, a game Rodgers sat out.

3. The Lions play five of their last seven at home but they have to face conference leaders Houston (8-1) and Atlanta (8-1) along with Chicago (7-2). They also play at Green Bay next month.

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**Udog** · 11-18-2012, 07:30 AM

NFL

Week 11

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Colts at Patriots: What bettors need to know
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Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots (-9.5, 54.5)

Winners of four straight, the Indianapolis Colts take a step up in competition when they visit Tom Brady and the New England Patriots in a marquee matchup on Sunday. Led by rookie Andrew Luck and inspired by their coach Chuck Pagano, who is battling leukemia, the Colts have surprisingly become a legitimate playoff contender.

The Patriots continue to roll on offense. Tom Brady has thrown at least one touchdown pass in his last 41 games and New England has added a potent ground game ranked fourth in the NFL. But the Patriots continue to struggle on defense, leaving the door open for some anxious moments late in games.

TV: 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS.

LINE: Patriots -9.5, O/U 54.5.

WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the mid-40s under sunny skies. Wind won’t be a factor.

ABOUT THE COLTS (6-3): All four of Indianapolis’ victories in its current winning streak have come against teams who currently sport sub-.500 records. The Colts are 5-1 since Pagano was diagnosed with leukemia as his situation has galvanized the team. The players and even a cheerleader have shaved their heads in support of the coach. Luck has rushed for five scores and thrown 10 TD passes for the NFL’s fifth-ranked offense. The favorite for NFL Rookie of the Year admits to being a longtime fan of Brady and is eager for his chance in one of the league’s top rivalries. Indianapolis does have several injuries. Linebacker Dwight Freeney has been less than 100 percent for most of the season and the Colts placed CB Jerraud Powers on IR earlier in the week.

ABOUT THE PATRIOTS (6-3): New England has won the past two games in the series but it is going to have to straighten out things on defense. While the Patriots continue to score with ease, leading the NFL in scoring by averaging 33.2 points., the defense ranks 29th against the pass and 25th overall. Last week, lowly Buffalo scored 31 points and had the ball in the final minute looking to pull off the upset before Devin McCourty picked off a pass by Ryan Fitzpatrick in the end zone. Still, New England has won three straight overall and is in firm control of first place in the AFC East Division.

TRENDS:

* Colts are 4-0 ATS in their last four games overall.
* Patriots are 1-5 ATS in their last six home games.
* Under is 4-0 in Colts’ last four games overall.
* Colts are 4-0 ATS in their last four games in New England.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Brady needs two TD passes to reach 20 for the 10th time in his career.

2. Pats tight end Aaron Hernandez was scratched from last week’s game and is questionable with a nagging ankle injury.

3. DB Robert Mathis is expected to play after missing the past two games for the Colts.

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**Udog** · 11-18-2012, 07:32 AM

NFL

Week 11

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Ravens at Steelers: What bettors need to know
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Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (3.5, 40)

The Baltimore Ravens finally put together a complete performance last week, showing just how explosive they can be in all three phases in a demolition of the Oakland Raiders. The rival Pittsburgh Steelers will provide a stiffer test defensively but might not be up to par on the other side of the ball. Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger was knocked out of Monday’s overtime win with a shoulder injury and is out for Sunday. Roethlisberger also has a partially dislocated rib and could be sidelined multiple weeks, leaving the ball in Byron Leftwich’s hands.

While Roethlisberger’s absence will help the Ravens’ defense, Joe Flacco will still have to go up against the No. 1 secondary in the league. Baltimore is trying to open up a two-game lead on Pittsburgh in the AFC North while pushing its winning streak in the series to three straight.

TV: 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC.

LINE: Ravens -3.5, O/U 40.

WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the low-40s under partly cloudy skies. Winds will blow out of the ESE at 5 mph.

ABOUT THE RAVENS (7-2): Baltimore dominated the Raiders last Sunday in a 55-20 victory, scoring three touchdowns in the passing game, two in the running game and two on special teams. The beleaguered defense even forced three turnovers. That defense, which had once been the heart and soul of the team, will be glad to not have Roethlisberger around. The Ravens are 26th in opposing passing yards and allowed Carson Palmer to throw for 368 last week. The run defense is not much better but could get a break as well if Pittsburgh’s Rashard Mendenhall (Achilles) is out or limited. Flacco threw for 300 yards in the trip to Heinz Field last season, including a 26-yard touchdown pass to Torrey Smith with eight seconds left that gave Baltimore a 23-20 victory.

ABOUT THE STEELERS (6-3): Leftwich has not started a game since he was with Tampa Bay in September 2009, but he came on in relief of Roethlisberger on Monday and at least got a chance to shake off some rust, going 7-of-14 for 73 yards. Roethlisberger’s big concern is the rib, which doctors are worried could cut his aorta if jostled. Leftwich will lean on a defense that has carried the team back into contention in four straight wins. That unit has held Andy Dalton, Eli Manning, Robert Griffin III and Matt Cassel to an average of 140.3 yards passing in the last four weeks. Safety Ryan Clark has been limited at practice this week due to a concussion and is listed as questionable for Sunday.

TRENDS:

* Under is 4-0 in Steelers’ last four games overall.
* Ravens are 3-0-1 ATS in their last four November games.
* Steelers are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
* Over is 5-1 in Ravens’ last six road games vs. a team with a winning home record.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. The Ravens have won 11 straight regular-season games against the AFC North

2. The Steelers are 4-0 at home this season and have won seven straight overall at Heinz Field since falling to Baltimore on Nov. 6, 2011.

3. Ravens KR Jacoby Jones became the first player in team history to return two kickoffs for touchdowns in the same season with a 105-yard return last week.

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Announcement

NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 11 (Thursday, November 15 - Monday, November 19)

NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 11 (Thursday, November 15 - Monday, November 19)

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