Announcement

**Udog** · 11-08-2012, 09:37 AM

NFL odds: Week 10 opening line report

Football bettors can usually draw a line through the schedule to indicate the exact week when Super Bowl contenders pull away from the Super Bowl pretenders. And Week 10 may be that week.

There are three double-digit spreads on the board in early November, with Buffalo getting 11 points in New England, St. Louis set as an 11-point pup in San Francisco, and Pittsburgh handing lowly Kansas City 11.5 points on Monday Night Football.

“The midway part of the season is when the teams start separating,” Peter Korner, founder of the Nevada-based odds service, The Sports Club, told Covers. “The good teams win, the bad teams lose, and that’s how the public bets them.”

Those double-digit spreads prove a certain divide between the top and bottom of the league. New England, San Francisco and Pittsburgh have a combined 16-8 record while their three opponents boast a collective 7-17 SU mark.

And while those spreads are some of the highest NFL gamblers have dealt with this season, Korner says those early lines aren’t high enough. His service sent out suggested spreads of 13 points for all three of those contests.

“Why wouldn’t you be high on these games if you were a sportsbook?,” Korner says. “Why would you want to have to cheer for the underdog come Sunday? I can explain why our lines are so high on these games. I can’t give any reasons to go lower.”

Houston Texans at Chicago Bears (-1, 41.5)

This is the main event of Week 10’s Sunday slate, pitting two 7-1 heavyweights against each other in the Windy City.

But while this Sunday Night Football slugfest has all the makings of a classic bout, Korner says it may be a bit overhyped. A win Sunday night would be a nice feather in the cap for either team, but with this being a non-conference contest between two division leaders, it probably won’t have much say in the grand scheme of things.

“It doesn’t really mean much. There isn’t anything at stake,” he says. “Although, it’s going to be a good game, it might be just that – a good game – and nothing else.”

Korner says his team of oddmakers brought spreads between a pick and Chicago -3 to the table, eventually sending out a suggested spread of Bears -2.5. Most online shops opened this game at -1 with some moving to -1.5.

San Diego Chargers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3, 48)

This AFC-versus-NFC matchup is one of the toughest spreads to get a grip on during Week 10.

The Chargers snapped a three-game losing streak against the Chiefs Thursday, thanks to a 21-point fourth quarter explosion. The Bucs continued their solid play, picking up their second straight “W” in a shootout with Oakland.

The Sports Club sent out a suggested spread of Tampa Bay -1.5 and plenty of online books opened with similar odds. But instant action on the Buccaneers took the spread all the way to the key number of -3.

“San Diego is notorious for being a second-half team,” says Korner. “They start slow and then come on strong.”

“This is a pretty close game, not as high profile as some others and with two teams looking towards the playoffs,” he adds. “But it will not land on three, I can guarantee that.”

**Udog** · 11-08-2012, 09:37 AM

NFL
Dunkel

Week 10

Indianapolis at Jacksonville
The Jaguars look to take advantage of an Indianapolis team that is 3-13 ATS in its last 16 games against teams with a losing record. Jacksonville is the pick (+3) according to Dunkel, which has the Jaguars favored by 1. Dunkel Pick: Jacksonville (+3). Here are all of this week's picks.

THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 8

Game 105-106: Indianapolis at Jacksonville (8:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Indianapolis 124.428; Jacksonville 125.085
Dunkel Line: Jacksonville by 1; 45
Vegas Line: Indianapolis by 3; 42 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Jacksonville (+3); Over

SUNDAY, NOVEMBER 11

Game 215-216: Buffalo at New England (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Buffalo 128.396; New England 137.407
Dunkel Line: New England by 9; 47
Vegas Line: New England by 11; 51
Dunkel Pick: Buffalo (+11); Under

Game 217-218: NY Giants at Cincinnati (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Giants 135.580; Cincinnati 133.827
Dunkel Line: NY Giants by 2; 52
Vegas Line: NY Giants by 4 1/2; 48 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Cincinnati (+4 1/2); Over

Game 219-220: San Diego at Tampa Bay (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: San Diego 130.439; Tampa Bay 130.491
Dunkel Line: Even; 44
Vegas Line: Tampa Bay by 3; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Diego (+3); Under

Game 221-222: Denver at Carolina (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Denver 138.631; Carolina 131.287
Dunkel Line: Denver by 7 1/2; 51
Vegas Line: Denver by 3 1/2; 47 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Denver (-3 1/2); Over

Game 223-224: Tennessee at Miami (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Tennessee 125.474; Miami 135.901
Dunkel Line: Miami by 10 1/2; 41
Vegas Line: Miami by 6; 44
Dunkel Pick: Miami (-6); Under

Game 225-226: Oakland at Baltimore (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Oakland 125.261; Baltimore 137.763
Dunkel Line: Baltimore by 12 1/2; 48
Vegas Line: Baltimore by 7 1/2; 46
Dunkel Pick: Baltimore (-7 1/2); Over

Game 227-228: Atlanta at New Orleans (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Atlanta 138.127; New Orleans 132.938
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 5; 50
Vegas Line: Atlanta by 1; 53 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-1); Under

Game 229-230: Detroit at Minnesota (1:00 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Detroit 133.551; Minnesota 127.480
Dunkel Line: Detroit by 6; 44
Vegas Line: Detroit by 1; 47
Dunkel Pick: Detroit (-1); Under

Game 231-232: NY Jets at Seattle (4:05 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: NY Jets 128.110; Seattle 136.150
Dunkel Line: Seattle by 8; 41
Vegas Line: Seattle by 6 1/2; 38 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Seattle (-6 1/2); Over

Game 233-234: Dallas at Philadelphia (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Dallas 131.544; Philadelphia 130.339
Dunkel Line: Dallas by 1; 48
Vegas Line: Philadelphia by 1; 45
Dunkel Pick: Dallas (+1); Over

Game 235-236: St. Louis at San Francisco (4:25 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: St. Louis 127.668; San Francisco 142.278
Dunkel Line: San Francisco by 14 1/2; 35
Vegas Line: San Francisco by 11; 38 1/2
Dunkel Pick: San Francisco (-11); Under

Game 237-238: Houston at Chicago (8:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Houston 138.382; Chicago 136.832
Dunkel Line: Houston by 1 1/2; 44
Vegas Line: Chicago by 1 1/2; 41 1/2
Dunkel Pick: Houston (+1 1/2); Over

MONDAY, NOVEMBER 12

Game 239-240: Kansas City at Pittsburgh (8:30 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: Kansas City 119.245; Pittsburgh 140.076
Dunkel Line: Pittsburgh by 21; 39
Vegas Line: Pittsburgh by 11 1/2; 43
Dunkel Pick: Pittsburgh (-11 1/2); Under

**Udog** · 11-08-2012, 09:38 AM

NFL
Long Sheet

Week 10

Thursday, November 8

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INDIANAPOLIS (5 - 3) at JACKSONVILLE (1 - 7) - 11/8/2012, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
INDIANAPOLIS is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.
INDIANAPOLIS is 0-7 ATS (-7.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
JACKSONVILLE is 4-1 against the spread versus INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
JACKSONVILLE is 4-1 straight up against INDIANAPOLIS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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Sunday, November 11

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BUFFALO (3 - 5) at NEW ENGLAND (5 - 3) - 11/11/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ENGLAND is 149-110 ATS (+28.0 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
NEW ENGLAND is 2-10 ATS (-9.0 Units) in home games when playing with 2 weeks or more of rest since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ENGLAND is 3-2 against the spread versus BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
NEW ENGLAND is 4-1 straight up against BUFFALO over the last 3 seasons
4 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NY GIANTS (6 - 3) at CINCINNATI (3 - 5) - 11/11/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NY GIANTS are 28-52 ATS (-29.2 Units) in November games since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 26-47 ATS (-25.7 Units) in weeks 10 through 13 since 1992.
CINCINNATI is 15-5 ATS (+9.5 Units) against NFC East division opponents since 1992.
NY GIANTS are 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in a road game where the total is between 45.5 and 49 points over the last 2 seasons.
NY GIANTS are 10-1 ATS (+8.9 Units) in road games when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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SAN DIEGO (4 - 4) at TAMPA BAY (4 - 4) - 11/11/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SAN DIEGO is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in non-conference games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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DENVER (5 - 3) at CAROLINA (2 - 6) - 11/11/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DENVER is 42-68 ATS (-32.8 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
DENVER is 27-47 ATS (-24.7 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season since 1992.
CAROLINA is 1-8 ATS (-7.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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TENNESSEE (3 - 6) at MIAMI (4 - 4) - 11/11/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
MIAMI is 47-70 ATS (-30.0 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
MIAMI is 1-0 against the spread versus TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
MIAMI is 1-0 straight up against TENNESSEE over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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OAKLAND (3 - 5) at BALTIMORE (6 - 2) - 11/11/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
OAKLAND is 3-13 ATS (-11.3 Units) in road games against AFC North division opponents since 1992.
BALTIMORE is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) in home games against AFC West division opponents since 1992.
BALTIMORE is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a losing record over the last 3 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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ATLANTA (8 - 0) at NEW ORLEANS (3 - 5) - 11/11/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 11-2 ATS (+8.8 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in a home game where the total is greater than or equal to 49.5 over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) in home games against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) in dome games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 13-3 ATS (+9.7 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 6-0 ATS (+6.0 Units) in home games when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season over the last 3 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 22-45 ATS (-27.5 Units) in home games versus division opponents since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 3-1 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 3-1 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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DETROIT (4 - 4) at MINNESOTA (5 - 4) - 11/11/2012, 1:00 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DETROIT is 1-9 ATS (-8.9 Units) as a road favorite of 3 points or less since 1992.
DETROIT is 32-52 ATS (-25.2 Units) in November games since 1992.
DETROIT is 7-18 ATS (-12.8 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive wins since 1992.
DETROIT is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record in the second half of the season over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
MINNESOTA is 3-1 against the spread versus DETROIT over the last 3 seasons
DETROIT is 3-2 straight up against MINNESOTA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NY JETS (3 - 5) at SEATTLE (5 - 4) - 11/11/2012, 4:05 PM
Top Trends for this game.
SEATTLE is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) when playing with 6 or less days rest over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 9-2 ATS (+6.8 Units) in home games in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in home games over the last 2 seasons.
SEATTLE is 10-2 ATS (+7.8 Units) in home lined games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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DALLAS (3 - 5) at PHILADELPHIA (3 - 5) - 11/11/2012, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
DALLAS is 4-14 ATS (-11.4 Units) against conference opponents over the last 2 seasons.
DALLAS is 3-11 ATS (-9.1 Units) versus division opponents over the last 3 seasons.
DALLAS is 19-35 ATS (-19.5 Units) in road games when playing against a team with a losing record since 1992.
DALLAS is 5-18 ATS (-14.8 Units) as a favorite over the last 3 seasons.
PHILADELPHIA is 148-111 ATS (+25.9 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
PHILADELPHIA is 16-5 ATS (+10.5 Units) in home games after playing on Monday night football since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
PHILADELPHIA is 3-1 against the spread versus DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
PHILADELPHIA is 3-1 straight up against DALLAS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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ST LOUIS (3 - 5) at SAN FRANCISCO (6 - 2) - 11/11/2012, 4:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
ST LOUIS is 123-160 ATS (-53.0 Units) in all games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 89-125 ATS (-48.5 Units) against conference opponents since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 34-55 ATS (-26.5 Units) in games played on a grass field since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 25-42 ATS (-21.2 Units) in November games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 0-6 ATS (-6.6 Units) in road games after 2 or more consecutive losses over the last 2 seasons.
ST LOUIS is 44-68 ATS (-30.8 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 123-160 ATS (-53.0 Units) in all lined games since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 64-90 ATS (-35.0 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
ST LOUIS is 2-11 ATS (-10.1 Units) as a road underdog of 10.5 to 14 points since 1992.
SAN FRANCISCO is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
SAN FRANCISCO is 17-8 ATS (+8.2 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
ST LOUIS is 3-1 against the spread versus SAN FRANCISCO over the last 3 seasons
SAN FRANCISCO is 3-1 straight up against ST LOUIS over the last 3 seasons
3 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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HOUSTON (7 - 1) at CHICAGO (7 - 1) - 11/11/2012, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
HOUSTON is 7-0 ATS (+7.0 Units) in games where the line is +3 to -3 over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 18-7 ATS (+10.3 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 17-4 ATS (+12.6 Units) in games played on a grass field over the last 2 seasons.
HOUSTON is 8-1 ATS (+6.9 Units) when playing against a team with a winning record over the last 2 seasons.

Head-to-Head Series History
There were no past matchups in this series during this time period.

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Monday, November 12

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KANSAS CITY (1 - 7) at PITTSBURGH (5 - 3) - 11/12/2012, 8:30 PM
Top Trends for this game.
KANSAS CITY is 13-4 ATS (+8.6 Units) as an underdog of 10 or more points since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 10-23 ATS (-15.3 Units) as a favorite of 10 or more points since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
KANSAS CITY is 1-0 against the spread versus PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
PITTSBURGH is 1-0 straight up against KANSAS CITY over the last 3 seasons
1 of 1 games in this series have gone UNDER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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**Udog** · 11-08-2012, 09:38 AM

NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 10

Colts (5-3) @ Jaguars (1-7)—Indy playing inspired football for disabled coach Pagano (leukemia) who visited team Sunday, winning four of last five games, last three all by 4 or less points, or in OT; they’ve lost last two visits here, 31-28/19-13- last year was first time Jags ever swept season series. Series was split in five of last six years. Indy allowed 41-22-35 points in its losses; they’re 4-0 allowing less than 22 points, a figure Jax has yet to hit at home this year. Jags’ only win this year came on 80-yard pass in last 2:00 at Indy, after Colts had just grabbed lead; they only had 148 passing yards the whole game. Jax lost five games in row (2-3 vs spread) since- they’re 0-4 at home (0-4 vs spread) losing by average score of 32-6. Home underdogs are 6-9 vs spread in divisional games so far this season. Three of last four Jaguar games went over total; under is 4-2-1 in Colts’ last seven games.

Bills (3-5) @ Patriots (5-3)—If you go back a decade, average score of second Bill-Patriot game each year has been 32-8 Pats; average score in first meetings, 28-20. Patriots trailed first meeting 14-7 at half in Buffalo, then exploded in second half for 52-28 win, their 22nd in last 24 series games; Bills lost last eight visits here, with five of last seven by 10 or less points. Buffalo lost four of its last five games; only one of its five losses was by less than 12 points- they’re 1-4 as underdogs this year, 1-3 on road. NE won four of last five games, forcing 15 turnovers (+9) in those games, after forcing only five in first three; they’re 1-2 as home favorites. In its last four wins, Patriots ran ball for 131+ yards; Bills allowed an average of 211 rushing yards in their last five games. Home favorites are 7-14 vs spread in divisional games this season. Last six Patriot games all went over the total.

Giants (6-3) @ Bengals (3-5)—Cincy lost to Peyton Manning last week; younger brother Eli visits here, in series where home team is 8-0, with Giants losing all five visits to Cincinnati (four of five losses by 5 or less points). Bengals lost last four games (0-4 vs spread), with three of the four at home, allowing 34-24-31 points in last three games; they’re 2-3 as underdogs, 0-2 at home. Last three Giant games were all decided by 5 or less points; they’re 2-2 on road (4-0 vs spread), 2-4 vs spread as favorites, 1-0 on road. Underdogs covered seven of their nine games this year. Red flag for NJ: they’ve completed only 25 of 53 passes in last two games, scoring two TDs on 21 drives- they had defensive TD in each game. NFC East non-divisional favorites are 3-11 against spread, 1-4 on road; AFC North underdogs are 5-6, 2-2 at home. Three of four Giant road games stayed under the total.

Chargers (4-4) @ Bucs (4-4)— Being 4-4 depends on your outlook; Tampa fans are thrilled to be .500 after losing last 10 games LY; some Charger fans are calling for Norv Turner’s head because he’s 4-4. Bucs’ WR Vincent Jackson left SD for Tampa and has invigorated Tampa passing game that averaged 6.9+ yards/attempt in each of last five games, during which time they averaged 33.2 ppg (20 TD’s on 59 drives, 31 plays of 20+ yards). Bolts had three extra days after Thursday night win that snapped three-game; they’re 2-2 on road, but lost at Saints/Browns in last two- they’re 0-1 as dogs this year. San Diego won eight of nine series games, including all five played here, but Bucs won their only Super Bowl on Chargers’ home field. NFC South home favorites are 5-6 vs spread outside their division; AFC West road underdogs are 2-5. Four of last five Charger games, and last five Tampa Bay games all went over the total.

Broncos (5-3) @ Panthers (2-6)—John Fox returns to Charlotte to coach against team that (stupidly) let him walk two years ago, because they didn’t want to pay him what he’s worth; Denver is on roll, winning/covering last three games, scoring 35-34-31 points. Broncos scored 31+ points in all five wins, 21-25-21 in losses. Carolina lost five of last six games, but held three of last four opponents under 20 points; they’re 0-4 vs spread when scoring 14 or less points, 4-0 when they score 21+. Panthers lost last three home games, scoring average of just 11 ppg (3 TD’s on 30 drives). Home side won all three games in series; Broncos lost only visit here, 30-10 four years ago. AFC west non-divisional favorites are 4-5 vs spread, 1-2 on road; NFC South teams are 16-8 vs spread outside their division, 9-2 as underdogs, 0-1 at home. Three of last four Bronco games went over; three of last four Panther games stayed under.

Titans (3-6) @ Dolphins (4-4)—You’ll get spirited effort from Tennessee here after 51-20 home debacle vs Bears last week, after which octogenarian owner Bud Adams basically threatened everyone in organization; five of Titans’ six losses are by 23 points- they’re 1-3 on road, pulling out 35-34 win at Buffalo in last road trip, but losing first three by 28-24-23 points (1-3 as road dog). Five of well-coached Dolphins’ last six games were decided by 4 or less points; Fish are 0-2 as favorites this year (both games were decided by 3 points) as underdogs covered six of their eight games, including last five. After running ball for 263-185 yards in Weeks 2-3, Dolphins averaged just 70.8 yards on ground over last five games. Miami won eight of last 11, three of last four series games; Titans lost six of last seven visits here, dropping last three by 14-3-12 points. AFC East non-divisional favorites are 6-5, 3-3 at home; AFC South underdogs are 9-8, 4-4 on road. Under is 3-0-1 in last four Miami games.

Raiders (3-5) @ Ravens (6-2)—Baltimore won six of seven series games, but teams haven’t met since ’09; Raiders are 0-4 here, losing 28-6/29-10 in last two visits, last of which was in ’08. Oakland got run over last week by Bucs’ Martin, who had 265 yards on ground before giving few away on kneeldowns in last minute; they’re 1-3 on road, covering last two, but losing three of four, with losses by 22-31-3 points, and only win at 1-7 Chiefs.. Ravens’ 137 rushing yards last week was season high; they’re 4-0 at home, but 1-3 as home favorites, winning by 31-1-7-2 points at home. Baltimore allowed 24-43 points in its two losses; they had 26 plays of 20+ yards in first four games, only 11 in last four- they need more to protect injury-riddled defense. AFC North non-divisional favorites are 2-8 vs spread, 2-4 at home; AFC West underdogs are 4-7, 2-5 on road. Three of four Raven home games, five of last seven Oakland games went over the total.

Falcons (8-0) @ Saints (3-5)—New Orleans won 10 of last 12 games in one of NFL’s best rivalries (teams came into NFL a year apart), with five of last seven games decided by 4 or less points; Atlanta lost five of last six visits here, but are 8-0 this year, allowing only 15.3 ppg in four road wins (all vs teams with .500 or worse records, but Saints are 3-5). Saints won three of last four games, but wasn’t impressed by Monday night win over freefalling Eagles; loss of multi-purpose back Sproles (hand) hampers their quick passes out of backfield. Atlanta scored 17 TD’s on 54 drives in first five games, only five on 30 in last three, but they keep winning. Saints are 3-1 when they score 28+ points, 0-4 when they don’t; Falcons allowed 16.8 ppg in last four games; they’ve allowed more than 24 points once (Carolina) this year. Underdogs covered three of first four NFC South divisional games this year. Three of last four Falcon games stayed under the total.

Lions (4-4) @ Vikings (4-5)—Minnesota was outgained 341-227, didn’t score offensive TD, but had two TD’s on special teams in 20-13 (+3.5) win at Detroit in Week 4, just second win in last five games vs Lions, after they won 21 of previous 24 series games. Detroit’s 26-23 OT win here LY was their first in last 14 visits here; they’re 3-1 since bye, scoring 8 TD’s on 17 drives in last two games, with six of eight TD drives 80+ yards. Lions are 4-1 when they score 26+ points, 0-3 when they don’t; Vikings allowed 29.5 ppg in last four games, after giving up 15.8 in first five. Minnesota QB Ponder looked lost at Seattle last week, when Vikes lost by 10 despite running ball for 243 yards; Ponder’s averaged 2.2/6.0/1.7 ypa in last three games. Detroit has run ball for 117.5 ypg since the bye, after averaging 90.3 in first four games, so they’re making effort to take heat off Stafford by running ball better. Three of last four games for both sides went over the total.

Jets (3-5) @ Seahawks (5-4)—Much like Giants last week, Jet players have had to deal with hurricane-related issues to their homes, so long road trip west could help them re-focus; they’ve won eight of last ten series games, after losing first seven games with Seattle- they’re 3-4 in Pacific Northwest. Seattle much better team at home (4-0, scoring 23.8 ppg) with wins over Packers/Patriots; speedy WRs Tate/Rice allowed Wilson to become more dangerous improvising out of pocket. Curious to see how Jets change approach after getting drilled 30-9 by Miami in last pre-bye game, when normally reliable special teams fell apart in first quarter. NFC West teams are 13-10 vs spread in non-divisional games, 5-5 as favorites, 4-4 at home; AFC East teams are 12-10 vs spread, 7-6 on road, 4-4 as road dogs. Three of last four Seattle games went over total. Many moons ago, Pete Carroll was once HC of the Jets.

Cowboys (3-5) @ Eagles (3-5)—Do struggling teams have home advantage? Home folks ain’t happy with Iggles, who allowed Vick to get sacked seven times in 28-13 loss to Saints Monday night—could be that Reid’s long (and largely successful) run as Eagles’ coach is nearing an end, since Philly lost last three games, allowing 26-30-28 points- three of their four home games have been decided by 3 or less points, and now they face hated Pokes on short work week. Dallas lost four of last five games, with last three losses all by 6 or less points; they’ve run ball for just 169 yards on 66 carries (2.56 per carry) in last three games. Philly scored 20+ points in only two games this year, and lost both of those. Home teams are 0-4 vs spread (2-2 SU) in NFC East divisional games this season. Four of five Dallas road games stayed under total; three of four Eagle home games went over. Iggles won three of last four series games, but Dallas is 4-3 in last seven visits here.

Rams (3-5) @ 49ers (6-2)—Niners are bully team, allowing 6 or less points in four of last five games, but they’re just 2-2 when they allow more than 6 points; curious to see if Rams’ patchwork OL can give Bradford enough time to move chains with favorite target Amendola back in lineup. SF won seven of last eight series games, winning last four played here by average score of 30-9. St Louis lost last three games, scoring four TD’s on last 27 drives; they’re 2-2 as road underdogs, but haven’t forced a turnover in last three games (-4) after forcing nine (+2) in first five games. Niners scored 13-3 points in their two losses, running ball for just 89-80 yards; they’re 6-0 when they don’t lose the turnover battle, and are 2-2 as home favorites, with home wins by 8-4-27 points and a loss to the Giants. Underdogs covered four of first five NFC West divisional games. Six of last seven 49er games stayed under the total.

Texans (7-1) @ Bears (7-1)—Possible Super Bowl preview with both teams’ only loss to Green Bay; Bears are setting unreal pace of forcing turnovers, with 28 in eight games; Chicago is already +16 in turnover ratio halfway through season- they’ve scored eight TD’s on defense/special teams in last six games, masking an offense with a suspect offensive line. Houston is underdog for first time this year- they’re 3-0 on road, with wins at Broncos/Jets/Jags. Texans turned ball over six times (-6) in only loss; they only have three other turnovers all season (+5 for year). Houston won both series meetings, 24-5 here in 2004, 31-24 at home four years ago. NFC North non-divisional home favorites are 6-7 vs spread; AFC South road underdogs are 4-4. Four of last six Houston games, four of last five Bear games went over the total. NFC teams have turned table on AFC this year, with a xx-xx advantage in interconference games so far.

Chiefs (1-7) @ Steelers (5-3)—Pittsburgh OC Haley was dumped as Chiefs’ HC during last season; hard feelings exist between him and KC front office. KC coach Crennel hired former Oklahoma HC Gibbs to be new DC during bye week, with Crennel becoming more of overseer of program; Chiefs lost last five games (1-4 vs spread), scoring two offensive TD’s on last 42 drives- they still haven’t led any game in regulation this season, and were down 24-6 in only game they’ve won. Steelers won/covered last three games, allowing only four TD’s on 28 drives; they rallied from 10 down in 4th quarter to win in Swamp last week. This is just Chiefs’ second visit to Pittsburgh since ’89; their last was a 45-6 loss in 2006. Steelers won last meeting 13-9 LY at Arrowhead. AFC North teams are 2-8 vs spread as non-divisional favorites, 2-4 at home; AFC West non-divisional underdogs are 4-7, 2-5 on foreign soil. Six of eight Chief games went over total; four of last five Steeler games stayed under.

**Udog** · 11-08-2012, 09:38 AM

NFL

Week 10

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Trend Report
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Thursday, November 8

8:20 PM
INDIANAPOLIS vs. JACKSONVILLE
The total has gone OVER in 16 of Indianapolis's last 22 games on the road
Indianapolis is 1-4 ATS in its last 5 games when playing Jacksonville
Jacksonville is 8-15 SU in its last 23 games when playing Indianapolis
Jacksonville is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Indianapolis

Sunday, November 11

1:00 PM
DETROIT vs. MINNESOTA
Detroit is 2-7-1 ATS in its last 10 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 12 of Detroit's last 15 games on the road
Minnesota is 8-17 SU in its last 25 games
Minnesota is 2-6-1 ATS in its last 9 games at home

1:00 PM
ATLANTA vs. NEW ORLEANS
Atlanta is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Atlanta is 1-6 SU in its last 7 games when playing New Orleans
New Orleans is 11-2 SU in its last 13 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 6 of New Orleans's last 9 games when playing Atlanta

1:00 PM
BUFFALO vs. NEW ENGLAND
Buffalo is 1-17 SU in its last 18 games when playing New England
Buffalo is 2-10 SU in its last 12 games on the road
The total has gone OVER in 5 of New England's last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 9 of New England's last 13 games when playing at home against Buffalo

1:00 PM
DENVER vs. CAROLINA
Denver is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games on the road
Denver is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Carolina's last 6 games
Carolina is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games at home

1:00 PM
OAKLAND vs. BALTIMORE
Oakland is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Baltimore
Oakland is 0-5 ATS in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Baltimore
Baltimore is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games
Baltimore is 1-6 ATS in its last 7 games at home

1:00 PM
TENNESSEE vs. MIAMI
The total has gone OVER in 4 of Tennessee's last 5 games on the road
Tennessee is 5-12 SU in its last 17 games on the road
Miami is 8-3 SU in its last 11 games when playing Tennessee
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Miami's last 5 games

1:00 PM
SAN DIEGO vs. TAMPA BAY
San Diego is 2-4 ATS in its last 6 games
San Diego is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games
Tampa Bay is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games at home
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Tampa Bay's last 7 games at home

1:00 PM
NY GIANTS vs. CINCINNATI
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of the NY Giants last 6 games on the road
NY Giants are 8-1 SU in their last 9 games on the road
Cincinnati is 3-11-3 ATS in its last 17 games
Cincinnati is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games

4:05 PM
NY JETS vs. SEATTLE
NY Jets are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games when playing Seattle
The total has gone OVER in 18 of the NY Jets last 23 games on the road
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Seattle's last 9 games
Seattle is 2-4 ATS in their last 6 games when playing NY Jets

4:15 PM
ST. LOUIS vs. SAN FRANCISCO
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of St. Louis's last 6 games
St. Louis is 3-10 ATS in its last 13 games on the road
San Francisco is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of San Francisco's last 6 games

4:15 PM
DALLAS vs. PHILADELPHIA
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Dallas's last 8 games on the road
Dallas is 4-8-1 ATS in its last 13 games when playing on the road against Philadelphia
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Philadelphia's last 7 games when playing Dallas
The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Philadelphia's last 10 games

8:20 PM
HOUSTON vs. CHICAGO
Houston is 7-2 SU in its last 9 games on the road
Houston is 7-1 SU in its last 8 games
Chicago is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games at home
Chicago is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home

Monday, November 12

8:30 PM
KANSAS CITY vs. PITTSBURGH
The total has gone OVER in 5 of Kansas City's last 6 games when playing Pittsburgh
Kansas City is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is 4-1 SU in its last 5 games
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Pittsburgh's last 5 games

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**Udog** · 11-08-2012, 09:39 AM

NFL

Week 10

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Thursday Night Football: Colts at Jaguars
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Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars (+3, 42.5)

The Indianapolis Colts and Jacksonville Jaguars were expected to battle it out for the AFC South Division basement this season. The Jaguars are holding up their end of the bargain, but thanks to a lot of Luck, Indianapolis has emerged as one of the surprising leaders for the conference's two wild card slots. Rookie Andrew Luck, the top overall pick in April's draft and successor to Peyton Manning, has directed the Colts to three consecutive victories and will vie for a fourth when Indianapolis visits the reeling Jaguars on Thursday night.

Jacksonville has lost five consecutive games and is tied with Kansas City for the league's worst record at 1-7. Playing at EverBank Field has not provided an edge for the Jaguars, who are the league's lowest-scoring team and have lost all four home games this season.

TV: 8:20 p.m. ET, NFL Network.

LINE: This line has stayed steady at +3 while the total has been up and down but has returned to its opening of 42.5.

WEATHER: The forecast is calling for sunny skies and temperatures in the mid 40s. Winds are expected to blow NNW at 2 mph.

ABOUT THE COLTS (5-3, 5-3 ATS): Fellow rookie Robert Griffin III has garnered much of the early-season publicity, but Luck and the Colts have lost just one since falling at home to Jacksonville on Sept. 23. Luck threw a pair of touchdown passes and set an NFL rookie record by throwing for 433 yards in Sunday's 23-20 victory over the Miami Dolphins. It was his fourth 300-yard game, tying the rookie record held by Manning. The victory came in the first game attended by head coach Chuck Pagano, who left the team late in September to undergo treatment for leukemia. Somewhat overlook has been the performance by Indianapolis' defense, which has allowed an averge of 15.3 points during the three-game winning streak.

ABOUT THE JAGUARS (1-7, 4-4 ATS): After a pair of solid performances in narrow road losses at Oakland and Green Bay, Jacksonville turned in a woeful effort in Sunday's 31-14 loss to Detroit. The Jaguars gave up 21 second-quarter points and held the ball for less than eight minutes while running only 18 plays in the first half - a stat that quarterback Blaine Gabbert termed "pathetic." Jacksonville failed to score until Gabbert threw a pair of fourth-quarter scoring passes with the game well in hand. The Jaguars again will be without star running back Maurice Jones-Drew, who will sit out his third straight game. Jones-Drew led the league with 1,606 yards rushing last season and ran for 177 yards against the Colts in September.

TRENDS:

* Over is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings in Jacksonville.
* Road team is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 meetings.
* Colts are 1-4 ATS in their last five meetings.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Jacksonville is 6-21 in its last 27 games, but three of the wins have come against the Colts.

2. Less than 24 hours after Pagano delivered an emotional postgame speech, his doctor said his leukemia is in remission.

3. The Jaguars have a minus-92 point differential in their four home losses - the worst mark since 2002 among teams that have lost their first four home games.

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**Udog** · 11-08-2012, 09:39 AM

NFL

Week 10

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Tale of the tape: Indianapolis at Jacksonville
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The surging Colts roll into Jacksonville to tackle the downtrodden Jaguars Thursday night. Find out how this AFC South battle breaks down with our tale of the tape.

Offense

The Colts are piling up yardage, but that hasn't exactly translated into a boatload of points in recent weeks. They've averaged over 430 total yards of offense per game on north of six yards per play, but have scored a grand total of only 59 points in their last three games. Rookie QB Andrew Luck has received heaps of praise following his 433-yard passing day against the Dolphins, but has topped 300 yards only once in three road games this season, posting a less than impressive 2:6 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

Jacksonville has scored more than 15 points only once in its last five contests and has been outgained in terms of total yardage in seven of eight games so far this season. Running back Maurice Jones-Drew remains sidelined with a foot injury - bad news for an offense that is averaging just over 250 yards per game. On a brighter note, second-year QB Blaine Gabbert has made positive strides, tossing nine touchdowns compared to only five interceptions. He's found the end zone in seven of eight games, but has thrown multiple TDs only twice.

Edge: Indianapolis

Defense

Indianapolis' defense continues to improve, having allowed only 46 points combined over its last three games. A word of warning though. Those three contests have come against pedestrian offenses in the Browns, Titans, and Dolphins. Still, it's a step in the right direction after getting torched for more than 20 points in four of the first five games this season. The return of LB Pat Angerer from injury has solidified the linebacking corps, but there are concerns with CB Vontae Davis sidelined and DE Robert Mathis questionable to play.

The Jags defense has been on the field an awful lot this season, and we've seen signs of this unit tiring in recent weeks. Jacksonville has allowed at least 24 points in four consecutive games, giving up over 30 twice during that stretch. Home cooking hasn't helped, as the Jags are allowing a whopping 432 total yards per game at EverBank Field. They've forced just one turnover in their last two games after recording three in an overtime loss to the Raiders on October 21.

Edge: Indianapolis

Special teams

Indy hasn't made much noise with its return game, falling below the league average in both punt and kick return yardage. Veteran kicker Adam Vinatieri has struggled as well, connecting on only 16 of 22 field-goal attempts. With that being said, he did make good on a 43-yard game-winner against Miami this past Sunday. He also misfired on a pair of kicks in the same game.

Jacksonville has been even worse than Indianapolis when it comes to returning kicks. Kicker Josh Scobee gives the Jags a considerable edge, however, as he's a perfect 14 for 14 on field-goal attempts this season. The Jags have also been terrific defending punt returns, holding the opposition to an average of only seven yards.

Edge: Jacksonville

Word on the street

“You can’t say enough good things about him, from him as a human being to him as a football player to him as a teammate. He’s the kind of guy you really want your kids to grow up and become. He’s a professional, he does it with class and he’ll be a good one for years to come.” -- Colts DE Fili Moala giving high praise to rookie QB Andrew Luck.

“I’m disappointed that we are where we’re at. I know the players are. I certainly know the fans are. I just want them to know how they feel, we feel the same way. Everybody in that locker room feels the same way. We’re mad, too, very disappointed we’re in this position." -- Jaguars head coach Mike Mularkey speaking about the team's 1-7 start to the season.

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**Udog** · 11-08-2012, 11:23 AM

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Week 10

Each week, we break down some of the underlying mismatches in the NFL hoping to give you an inside edge when handicapping the schedule. Here are four of the biggest betting mismatches from Week 10:

San Diego Chargers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3, 48)

Philip Rivers’ swagger vs. Bucs' bad pass defense

Philip Rivers has never had an issue with confidence before, wearing that shit-eating grin on the sidelines most Sundays no matter if the Bolts are winning or not. But, the Chargers’ cocky QB did need a little pick-me-up after losing three in a row. That boost came in the form of Kansas City and an 18-for-20 passing day for Rivers last Thursday.

With a bit of swagger back, Rivers takes aim at the Buccaneers’ porous pass defense, which ranks last in the league after allowing 321.1 yards through the air per game. Tampa Bay made Oakland QB Carson Palmer feel like it was 2005 again, watching the aging arm pass for more than 400 yards and four TDs. Palmer did, however, get picked off three times. But c’mon, it’s Carson Palmer.

Tennessee Titans at Miami Dolphins (-6, 44)

Dolphins' retooled run game vs. Titans' terrible ground defense

The Dolphins are trying to get their groove back on the ground after having the turf pulled out from under them in recent weeks. Miami had a couple big rushing days – like 263 yards versus Oakland in Week 2 – to start the year but has since slowed down. The Fins are mustering just 3.8 yards per carry – 28th in the NFL – and offensive coordinator Mike Sherman isn’t happy about it. He’s shaking up the depth chart and focusing on the running game versus Tennessee, which is the perfect opponent to roll over.

The Titans have been road kill against the run all season, allowing 141.6 rushing yards per game (30th in the NFL). Tennessee was gashed by Chicago RB Matt Forte last weekend, allowing the Bears star to rumble for 8.6 yards per carry. Teams have gone for the throat against the Titans, calling more than 46 percent of their plays on the ground.

Houston Texans at Chicago Bears (-1, 41.5)

Texans’ care taking vs. Bears’ scoring defense

The enigma that is the 2012 Chicago Bears was broken down by SI.com’s Kerry J. Byrne this week, with the finger pointing mostly at how far the defense has carried this team. Chicago’s stop unit causes chaos all over the field, averaging an insane 3.5 takeaways per game. The Bears are nearly averaging a defensive TD per game and came away with scores from Corey Wootton on a blocked punt and Brian Urlacher off an INT versus Tennessee last week.

However, if you don’t give away the ball, how is Chicago supposed to make those big plays? Houston may have this already figured out. The Texans protect the football like a teenage daughter and rank tops in the league in giveaways per game (0.8). They’ve only fumbled the ball twice and QB Matt Schaub has been picked off only four times, including clean sheets in the past two outings.

Kansas City Chiefs at Pittsburgh Steelers (-11.5, 43)

Steelers' speedy injuries vs. Chiefs’ new DC

Injuries are the great equalizer in the NFL, and with the Steelers suffering multiple mishaps to their speediest players, Pittsburgh could be in slow motion Monday night. The Steelers will be without road runners KR Chris Rainey and WR Antonio Brown and RB Jonathan Dwyer is nursing a groin injury which held him out of Week 9. The loss of those horses could have Pittsburgh leaning heavily on smash-mouth RB Isaac Redman. That’s not a bad thing, but it’s awful tough to cover all those points when you're slowly creeping down the field and keeping the clock on the move.

Kansas City should see a little more life on defense this Monday with head coach Romeo Crennel handing the stop unit over to Gary Gibbs. Crennel is dodging media criticism with the move, but letting Gibbs call the shots could shake things up with the assistant looking to make a name for himself. We’re not saying Kansas City – which sits 17th in total yards against and 30th in points allowed – is suddenly going to be a brick wall. But anything is better than the first nine weeks of the season.

**Udog** · 11-08-2012, 02:56 PM

NFL
Short Sheet

Week 10

Thursday, November 8, 2012

(TC) Indianapolis at Jacksonville, 8:25 ET NFL
Indianapolis: 8-1 ATS on Thursdays
Jacksonville: 13-4 Over off a home game

Sunday, November 11, 2012

Buffalo at New England, 1:00 ET
Buffalo: 12-4 Over as an underdog
New England: 2-10 ATS at home playing with rest

NY Giants at Cincinnati, 1:00 ET
NY Giants: 8-1 ATS away off a home game
Cincinnati: 5-14 ATS off a loss

San Diego at Tampa Bay, 1:00 ET
San Diego: 0-6 ATS vs. non-conference opponents
Tampa Bay: 27-12 ATS after scoring 30+ points

Denver at Carolina, 1:00 ET
Denver: 1-10 ATS off 3+ games scoring 30+ points
Carolina: 22-7 Under at home off BB ATS wins

Tennessee at Miami, 1:00 ET
Tennessee: 4-15 ATS away off BB ATS losses
Miami: 9-1 Under off BB Unders

Oakland at Baltimore, 1:00 ET
Oakland: 3-13 ATS away vs. NFC North opponents
Baltimore: 13-3 ATS at home vs. AFC West opponents

Atlanta at New Orleans, 1:00 ET
Atlanta: 3-14 ATS off BB games having 375+ total yards
New Orleans: 8-1 ATS at home vs. conference opponents

Detroit at Minnesota, 1:00 ET
Detroit: 1-9 ATS as a road favorite of 3 points or less
Minnesota: 15-5 Under after gaining 200+ rushing yards

NY Jets at Seattle, 4:05 ET
NY Jets: 1-9 ATS away off BB games allowing 25+ points
Seattle: 9-2 ATS off a home game

Dallas at Philadelphia, 4:25 ET
Dallas: 4-14 ATS vs. conference opponents
Philadelphia: 13-4 ATS at home off a loss by 14+ points

St. Louis at San Franisco, 4:25 ET
St. Louis: 2-11 ATS as a road underdog of 10.5 to 14 points
San Francisco: 10-1 ATS off a road game

(TC) Houston at Chicago, 8:30 ET NBC
Houston: 7-0 ATS with a line of +3 to -3
Chicago: 10-23 ATS at home off BB Overs

Monday, November 5, 2012

(TC) Kansas City at Pittsburgh, 8:40 ET ESPN
Kansas City: 9-1 ATS away off a road loss by 14+ points
Pittsburgh: 10-23 ATS as a favorite of 10+ points

** Week 10 Byes: Arizona, Cleveland, Green Bay, Washington **

(TC) = Time Change

**Udog** · 11-09-2012, 10:55 AM

Where the action is: NFL mid-week line moves

The sportsbooks are brushing off their shoulders following a favorite-filled Week 9 that handed books one of their worst weekends in some time. But it’s business as usual in Nevada, which means NFL odds are on the move heading into the weekend.

We talk to Bert Osborne, sportsbook manager at the South Point sportsbook in Las Vegas, about the biggest adjustments on the Week 10 board. We also look at where those lines could end up by kickoff:

San Diego Chargers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers – Open: -1, Move: -3

Some online books opened this game with Tampa Bay as a slight home favorite. Then, sharp money pushed that to a field goal and most Las Vegas books followed suit. South Point is currently dealing the Bucs -3 and doesn’t see this game moving off the key number.

“The money is trending towards the Buccaneers, but if we go to 3.5 we’ll get chopped up and they would jump on San Diego,” Osborne told Covers. “We’ll just stay the course and hope this one doesn’t land on three.”

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints – Open: Pick, Move: +2.5

If you were just looking at the standings, that opening line of a pick’em would seem insane for a game between an 8-0 team and a 3-5 squad. While the early action is on Atlanta, bettors aren’t jumping on the Falcons to quickly after the Saints took apart the Eagles on Monday night football.

“We’ve seen nothing but public money (on the Falcons) but we could see some money come in on the Saints,” says Osborne. “That Monday night game is in their memory banks and that’s what is fresh, that’s what people remember.”

Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings – Open: -1, Move: +2.5

The injury to Vikings WR Percy Harvin has many bettors playing it cool with this NFC North grudge match. Osborne says there hasn’t been a lot of early action on this game and even though Detroit has won three of its last four, he doesn’t necessarily agree with the early opinion.

“Minnesota stunk it up last week in Seattle and cost us, but this is a team that is capable of pulling out a win at home,” he says.

Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles – Open: -1.5, Move: +1.5

The Eagles have flipped from favorites to underdogs with parlay plays and sharp money piling on America’s Team. Osborne says Philadelphia can’t close out games, but that’s a trend shared by both NFC East rivals.

“(The Eagles) are going to get close to 8-8 this season and could be starting to mail it in,” says Osborne.

Kansas City Chiefs at Pittsburgh Steelers – Open: -11.5, Move: -13

The Monday nighter has the biggest spread on the board. South Point opened Pittsburgh -12.5 and took action on Kansas City to move it back down to 12. Osborne says the spread could easily go back to its opening stand or even more to 13, which is being offered at some online shops.

“I could see it move to 13 and then have some of the sharps come in hard on Kansas City,” he says. “But who’s going to make a case for Kansas City, unless the Steelers come in flat just looking to take a win.”

Osborne says with such a big favorite for Monday Night Football, a lot of the parlays, moneyline parlays and teasers will be tide into the final game of Week 10.

**Udog** · 11-10-2012, 11:56 AM

NFL poolies betting cheat sheet: Week 10

Denver at Carolina (4, 47)

Peyton Manning and the AFC West-leading Broncos hit the road seeking a fourth straight win against Cam Newton and the Panthers, who ended a five-game losing streak last week. Manning, the league's highest-rated passer, has thrown three touchdowns in five straight games after leading Denver to a 31-23 win over Cincinnati last Sunday. The Broncos are averaging 31.6 points over their last five contests and have outscored opponents 100-37 over the last 10 quarters. Denver has played over the total in six of its last seven road games.

San Diego at Tampa Bay (-3, 47)

Tampa Bay scored more than 22 points just once in its first four games, going 1-3 in the process. Following their bye week, the Buccaneers have won three of four contests, scoring 28 points in the loss while registering at least 36 in each victory. A big reason for the recent offensive outburst is the exceptional play of RB Doug Martin. The rookie is averaging 5.2 yards per carry and exploded for 251 yards off 25 carries with four TDs against Oakland last week. The Bucs have played over the total in their last five games.

Tennessee at Miami (-6, 44)

Titans QB Jake Locker has been cleared for contact for the first time since dislocating his non-throwing shoulder on Sept. 30 and is expected to start. Team owner Bud Adams said his team was "grossly outcoached and outplayed" after the Titans were destroyed by the Bears last week and detailed that everyone on the roster was "on notice" following the loss. Miami saw its three-game winning streak halted in a 23-20 setback to Indianapolis last week, but rookie signal-caller Ryan Tannehill continues to impress and hasn't committed a turnover since Sept. 30 (98 pass attempts). The Dolphins have played under the total in their last four games overall.

Buffalo at New England (-12, 52.5)

Surprisingly, the Bills waged a gritty battle with AFC-leading Houston before falling 21-9 last week. After the dust settled, Buffalo was held without a touchdown for the third time in the past four games. Tom Brady and the Pats have revved things up, scoring 180 points in their last five games, including a 45-point outburst across the pond against the Rams prior to their bye week. New England has already beaten the Bills 52-28 this season and has now taken 17 of the last 18 meetings in the series. The Patriots are just 1-4 ATS in their last five home games.

Oakland at Baltimore (-9.5, 47)

The Raiders, who rank 31st in the NFL in rushing, could be without their top two running backs when they visit Baltimore on Sunday afternoon. Both Darren McFadden and Mike Goodson are dealing with ankle sprains and are questionable, leaving third-string RB Taiwan Jones at the top of the depth chart. Baltimore has won 14 straight regular-season home games, the longest current streak in the NFL. But more concerning is the fact that QB Joe Flacco has been held to under 200 yards passing in three of the last four games. The Ravens are just 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games.

N.Y. Giants at Cincinnati (3.5, 49)

Eli Manning saw his streak of 25 consecutive 200-yard passing games end at Dallas on Oct. 28 and he followed that up by throwing for a season-low 125 yards in a loss to the Steelers last Sunday. The Bengals blew a 14-point lead to Denver last week for their fourth consecutive defeat - and third in a row at home. One reason for their skid is an increasingly one-dimensional offense and the failure of the running game. BenJarvus Green-Ellis has yet to rush for 100 yards and has topped out at 69 yards during the four-game losing streak. The Bengals are 0-4 ATS during the slump.

Atlanta at New Orleans (1, 53.5)

New Orleans' defense has been dreadful, ranking last in the league in total yards allowed. The Saints have surrendered at least 421 total yards in every game and their porous pass defense will have its hands full against QB Matt Ryan and a loaded receiving corps that includes Roddy White, Julio Jones and Tony Gonzalez. Atlanta is 8-0 for the first time in franchise history but has won five games this season by seven points or fewer. The Falcons are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games.

Detroit at Minnesota (1, 46)

Detroit has won two straight and three of four since a 20-13 home loss to the Vikings on Sept. 30 left the team at 1-3 and mired in a three-game losing streak. Conversely, Minnesota has seen a promising 4-1 start unravel with three losses in its last four games, including back-to-back defeats to Tampa Bay and Seattle in which the Vikings have surrendered a combined 76 points. Minnesota's offense continues to go sideways after Christian Ponder threw for only 63 yards and an interception in last week's 30-20 loss in Seattle. The Lions have covered in four consecutive games and the Vikings are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four contests.

N.Y. Jets at Seattle (-6, 38.5)

Seattle’s home-field advantage is keeping it in the playoff hunt in the NFC. The Seahawks are 4-0 at CenturyLink Field, including tight wins over the New England Patriots and the Green Bay Packers. After dropping two in a row on the road, Seattle came back to “The Link” last weekend and put together its best offensive performance of the campaign in a 30-20 win over Minnesota. Hurricane Sandy has left some Jets players and staffers without power for over a week, a significant distraction for the team during its bye week. The Seahawks are 4-0 ATS in their last four home games.

Dallas at Philadelphia (1, 44)

Michael Vick was sacked seven times as the Eagles suffered their fourth consecutive setback with a 28-13 loss to New Orleans on Monday night. Although Vick has come under fire this season, he carved up Rob Ryan's defense on both occasions last season, completing 39 of 60 passes with four TDs and improved to 3-0 as an Eagles starter against the Cowboys. Dallas QB Tony Romo strained his back on the final play of a loss to the Falcons last week, but is expected to be ready for Sunday's contest. The Cowboys have played under the total in seven of their last eight road games.

St. Louis at San Francisco (-11.5, 38.5)

The Rams hope the early return of Danny Amendola (clavicle) can spark their sputtering offense. It was feared he would miss the rest of the season but the gritty receiver intends on playing Sunday. San Francisco has won four of its last five games and hasn’t allowed a touchdown in any of the victories. Defensively, the Niners are allowing just 12.9 ppg - tops in the league. San Francisco has taken seven of the last eight meetings and is 12-3-1 ATS in its last 16 home games.

Houston at Chicago (-1, 40)

The Bears have rolled to six consecutive wins - their lone loss came against the Packers - on the strength of a dominant ball-hawking defense. Chicago has forced 28 turnovers and is plus-16 in that department. Houston's only loss came when it committed three turnovers - half of its season total - so the Texans will need to take care of the ball against the opportunistic Chicago defense. The Texans are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning record.

Kansas City at Pittsburgh (-11.5, 42)

Pittsburgh's defense ranks first in the league in total yards (262.6) and against the pass (174.0). The Steelers limited the Giants to a season-low 182 yards of total offense last week despite the absence of Pro Bowl safety Troy Polamalu, who will miss his fifth straight game with a calf injury. Kansas City is mired in a five-game losing streak and has not held a lead in regulation this season. The Chiefs are 1-4 ATS during the losing skid.

**StarDust Bum** · 11-11-2012, 04:07 AM

Falcons at Saints: What bettors need to know

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (1, 53.5)

The first half of the season has proven to represent a changing of the guard in the NFC South, but the surging New Orleans Saints will try to say something about that when they host the undefeated Atlanta Falcons on Sunday. The Falcons - the last remaining unbeaten team in the league - have solidified their status as the division front-runner, but the Saints are trying to work their way back into the playoff picture. New Orleans has won three of its past four games after starting the season with four straight losses.

Atlanta is 8-0 for the first time in franchise history and is just the 15th team to start 8-0 since the NFL went to a 16-game schedule in 1978. The Saints have won 10 of the past 12 meetings against the Falcons, which is a big reason they've won the NFC South in two of the past three seasons and three of the past six. That includes a 45-16 blowout in the most recent contest on Dec. 26, 2011, in New Orleans, a game in which Drew Brees broke Dan Marino's single-season passing mark.

TV: 1 p.m. ET, FOX.

LINE: Falcons -1, O/U 53.5.

ABOUT THE FALCONS (8-0): The Falcons have won five games this season by seven points or less, and they are 27-10 in games decided by one score during coach Mike Smith's tenure. The offense had its lowest-scoring output of the season in last week's 19-13 home win against Dallas, and Atlanta might need more with the defense getting a stern test from the Saints, especially with linebacker Sean Weatherspoon missing a second consecutive game with a sprained right ankle.

ABOUT THE SAINTS (3-5): New Orleans' defense has been dreadful, ranking last in the league in total yards allowed. The Saints have surrendered at least 421 total yards in every game. The porous pass defense will have its hands full against quarterback Matt Ryan and a loaded receiving corps that includes Roddy White, Julio Jones and Tony Gonzalez. The Saints' offense has not been as prolific as in past years, and running back Darren Sproles is out at least four weeks after hand surgery.

TRENDS:

* Falcons are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games.
* Over is 4-0 in their last four meetings in New Orleans.
* Underdog is 5-1 ATS in their last six meetings.
* Over is 9-1 in Saints’ last 10 vs. NFC foes.
* Saints are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 home games.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Atlanta is 29-0 when QB Matt Ryan starts and has a rating of 100 or higher, and the team is 15-0 when he has at least three touchdown passes.

2. Brees, who has a passing touchdown in an NFL-record 51 consecutive games, has passed for 300 yards in eight of 12 meetings vs. Atlanta since joining the
Saints.

3. Gonzalez needs one touchdown reception to become the first tight end and eighth player in history with 100.

**StarDust Bum** · 11-11-2012, 04:09 AM

Cowboys at Eagles: What bettors need to know

Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles (1, 44)

A pair of underachieving NFC East teams will meet in the City of Brotherly Love on Sunday when the Dallas Cowboys pay a visit to the Philadelphia Eagles. Despite lofty expectations, the season is in jeopardy of slipping away for both clubs as they head into this crucial matchup. Philadelphia's beleaguered offensive line bore the brunt of most of the criticism as Michael Vick was sacked seven times and the Eagles suffered their fourth consecutive setback with a 28-13 loss to New Orleans on Monday night.

Dallas certainly isn't dancing in the streets either as it fell short in its bid to unseat undefeated Atlanta last week en route to a 19-13 loss. Tony Romo rebounded from a brutal first half versus the New York Giants to complete 25 of 35 passes for 321 yards and a touchdown versus the Falcons. Romo strained his back on the final play, but is expected to be ready for Sunday's contest.

TV: 4:25 p.m. ET, FOX.

LINE: Cowboys -1, O/U, 44.

WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the low-60s under sunny skies. Winds will blow out of the south at 6 mph.

ABOUT THE COWBOYS (3-5): One can understand if LB DeMarcus Ware is licking his chops as he heads into Sunday's tilt. After New Orleans had its way with Vick, Dallas' sack leader will look to get his piece of the pie on national television. Ware has recorded nine sacks in his last three games versus Philadelphia. Tight end Jason Witten, who has recovered from his injured spleen, has 50 receptions for 462 yards in his last five games.

ABOUT THE EAGLES (3-5): Although Vick has come under fire this season, he carved up Rob Ryan's defense on both occasions last season. The electric quarterback completed 39 of 60 passes with four touchdowns and no interceptions and improved to 3-0 as an Eagles starter against the Cowboys. Vick received some bad news as right tackle Todd Herremans suffered a tendon strain to his foot against the Saints. Herremans was placed on injured reserve Wednesday, thus forcing the switch of King Dunlap to right tackle.

TRENDS:

* Under is 7-1 in Cowboys’ last eight road games.
* Eagles are 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight games overall.
* Cowboys are 1-7 ATS in their last eight vs. NFC East foes.
* Under is 7-0-1 in Eagles’ last eight vs. NFC East foes.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Dallas RB DeMarco Murray has been sidelined with a sprained left foot since Oct. 14, but did some light rehab work in practice on Wednesday. Murray is not expected to play versus the Eagles.

2. Turnovers have been critical to the shortcomings of both clubs. Dallas is a horrid minus-11 while Philadelphia is minus-9 in that department.

3. Coach Andy Reid boasts a 17-10 mark versus Dallas, while Jason Garrett has dropped three of his four contests against Philadelphia.

**StarDust Bum** · 11-11-2012, 04:11 AM

NFL weather watch: Rain, high winds expected in Chicago

Find out if weather will impact your wagers in Week 10 of the NFL season:

New York Giants at Cincinnati Bengals (4, 49)

Site: Paul Brown Stadium

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the low-70s with sunny skies. However, winds will blow out of the south at 14 mph.

Tennessee Titans at Miami Dolphins (-6, 44.5)

Site: Sun Life Stadium

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the mid-70s under partly cloudy skies. Winds will blow out of the east at 16 mph.

San Diego Chargers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3, 47)

Site: Raymond James Stadium

Forecasts are projecting temperatures in the mid-70s under partly cloudy skies. Winds will blow out of the east at 12 mph.

New York Jets at Seattle Seahawks (-6, 38.5)

Site: CenturyLink Field

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the high-40s with a 55 percent chance of rain. Winds will be light out of the south.

Houston Texans at Chicago Bears (-1, 39.5)

Site: Soldier Field

Forecasts are projecting temperatures in the mid-50s with a 100 percent chance of showers. Winds will be strong out of the WSW at 21 mph.

Announcement

NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 10 (Thursday, November 8 - Monday, November 12)

NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 10 (Thursday, November 8 - Monday, November 12)

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