NFL Trends and Indexes - Week 10 (Thursday, November 8 - Monday, November 12)

[Udog]

Thank you, Bum!!!!! My morning just got a lot easier! Good luck today, buddy!


Texans at Bears: What bettors need to know

Houston Texans at Chicago Bears (-1, 39.5)

A potential Super Bowl preview will take center stage Sunday night when the Houston Texans take the best record in the AFC into Soldier Field to face the NFC North-leading Chicago Bears. Houston rebounded nicely from its lone loss against Green Bay, pounding Baltimore before its bye week and coming back from the week off to beat Buffalo last week. The Texans rank second in the league in scoring offense (29.6) and fourth in scoring defense (17.1).

Houston's balance on both sides of the ball does not create a mismatch for the Bears, though. Chicago ranks third in scoring offense (29.5) and second in scoring defense (15.0). The Bears have rolled to six consecutive wins - their lone loss also came against the Packers - on the strength of a dominant ball-hawking defense. Chicago has forced 28 turnovers and is plus-16 in that department. The Texans have won both previous meetings - 31-24 at home in 2008 and 24-5 in Chicago in 2004.

TV: 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC.

LINE: Bears -1, O/U 39.5.

WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the mid-50s with a100 percent chance of showers. Winds will be strong out of the south at 21 mph.

ABOUT THE TEXANS (7-1): Houston's only loss came when it committed three turnovers - half of its season total - so the Texans will need to take care of the ball against the opportunistic Chicago defense. Quarterback Matt Schaub is likely to have to put the ball in the air quite a bit, though, because the Bears rank sixth in the league against the run. Schaub is 11-1 with 17 touchdowns and five interceptions in his past 12 games.

ABOUT THE BEARS (7-1): Chicago has gone as its quarterback and defense go, which so far has been stellar. Jay Cutler has faced his ups and downs, but he has developed a strong rapport with receiver Brandon Marshall, who leads the NFC with 797 receiving yards on 59 catches. The defense has helped the offense too, not only by forcing so many turnovers but also by turning them into touchdowns. Chicago has taken seven interceptions back for touchdowns.

TRENDS:

* Texans are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning record.
* Over is 4-1 in Bears’ last five games overall.
* Under is 4-1 in Texans’ last five road games.
* Bears are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine November games.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Schaub needs 146 passing yards to reach 20,000 in his career.

2. Including playoff games, Cutler's teams are 26-0 when he has a rating of 100 or higher.

3. Houston RB Arian Foster has scored at least one touchdown in 10 consecutive games and has topped 10 rushing scores for the third consecutive season.

[Udog]

Where the action is: Sunday's NFL line moves

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints – Open: Pick, Move: +2.5

This clash between two high-powered offenses opened as a pick’em, with the line gradually moving throughout the week because of money on the undefeated Falcons.

“We are long on Falcons, but not as big of a decision as you may expect,” Perry told Covers. “63 percent of the money coming in is on Atlanta.”

Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles – Open: Pick, Move: +2

These two underachieving teams are both desperate for a win to keep their respective playoff hopes alive and this contest is the biggest mover of the week at Perry’s book.

"This one seems to be the favorite week 10 NFL play for wiseguys,” said Perry. “As the line has moved 4 points (from Philly -1.5 to Dallas -2.5). Also, it’s one of the favorite plays for the betting public, as 86 percent of the cash is on the Cowboys.”

Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings – Open: -1, Move: +2.5

This line was looking pretty stable all week, until news of an injury broke.

“The money was about 80/20 in favor of the Lions before it was announced Percy Harvin wont play,” Perry said. “Now, it is at 91 percent on Detroit.”

Houston Texans at Chicago Bears – Total Open: 43, Move: 40

This clash between two stout defenses has attracted major attention to the total. Add some nasty weather that’s expected in Chicago on Sunday to the mix and this total is on the move.

“Sharps seem to like the under for the Sunday night game,” said Perry. “We opened the total at 42.5, and it has dipped 3 points since.”

[Udog]

NFL

Monday, November 12

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Tale of the tape: Chiefs at Steelers
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Take a quick glance at the tale of the tape for Monday night’s showdown between the Kansas City Chiefs and Pittsburgh Steelers.

Offense

Kansas City is mired in a five-game losing streak and has not held a lead in regulation this season. The Chiefs committed four turnovers in their most recent loss to San Diego to boost their league-worst total to 29. Matt Cassel will make his second straight start at QB since reclaiming his job when Brady Quinn suffered a concussion. Kansas City had the league's best running game at one point this season, but Jamaal Charles has rushed for only 83 yards in his last three games.

Steelers WR Antonio Brown has officially been ruled out for Monday night’s contest with an ankle injury he sustained in Week 9’s win over the Giants. Running back Rashard Mendenhall (Achilles) is questionable, so Isaac Redman, who rushed for a career-high 147 yards last week, would potentially start in his place. Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger has thrown for 16 touchdowns against four interceptions and is one of six QBs with a passer rating above 100.

Edge: Steelers


Defense

Kansas City, which is allowing 30.0 points per game, cut CB Stanford Routt this week. He was signed to a three-year, $18 million contract in the offseason. The Chiefs' stop unit is allowing 126 yards on the ground per game and will be in tough against the Steelers’ versatile running attack.

Pittsburgh's defense ranks first in the league in total yards (262.6) and against the pass (174.0). The Steelers limited the Giants to a season-low 182 yards of total offense despite the absence of Pro Bowl S Troy Polamalu, who will miss his fifth straight game with a calf injury. The Steelers will also be without T Marcus Gilbert (ankle) and LB Stevenson Sylvester (hamstring).

Edge: Steelers


Special teams

Kansas City averages 22.2 yards per kick return (22nd) and 10.7 yards per punt return (9th), but has yet to return a kick or punt for a TD this season.

Pittsburgh averages 28 yards per kick return (4th) and 10.2 yards per punt return (11th), but will be without primary return specialist Antonio Brown for this one. The Steelers also have one of the most reliable kickers in the league, Shaun Suisham, who has converted 17 of his 18 FG attempts this season.

Edge: Steelers


Word on the street

"I have to impart on them the importance of protecting the ball for this team and sometimes to get that done, you basically have to threaten them. If you fumble it, I'm going to take you out of the game. And they will get the message." --Romeo Crennel on his plan to bench anyone who fumbles or throws a pick Monday night.

"Whoever's being productive when healthy is going to get the totes. I really think it's that simple. I'm not going to make it any more complex than it has to be." --Steelers coach Mike Tomlin on his depth in the backfield.


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[Udog]

NFL

Monday, November 12

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Monday Night Football: Chiefs at Steelers
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Kansas City Chiefs at Pittsburgh Steelers (-12.5, 41)

If Kansas City Chiefs coach Romeo Crennel crunches the numbers long enough, he might decide not to let his team board the plane for Monday night's game at the resurgent Pittsburgh Steelers. The early-season struggles appear to be a thing of the past for Pittsburgh, which has won three straight games, including a 24-20 comeback win on the road over the reigning Super Bowl champion New York Giants a week ago.

If that's not enough, the Chiefs haven't won in Pittsburgh since 1986. Adding to the daunting task is that Kansas City is mired in a five-game losing streak and has not held a lead in regulation this season. One subplot is that Steelers offensive coordinator Todd Haley will be facing the team that fired him as head coach after 13 games last season, opening the door for Crennel to supplant him.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE: Steelers -12.5, O/U 41

WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the mid-50s with a 90 percent chance of rain. Winds will blow out of the SW at 8 mph.

ABOUT THE CHIEFS (1-7): Kansas City's season of misery continued with a 31-13 loss at San Diego on Nov. 1. The Chiefs committed four turnovers to boost their league-worst total to 29 and managed only 289 yards - a good chunk of it coming late in the fourth quarter. The lopsided defeat prompted Crennel to relinquish his duties as defensive coordinator so he can spend more time with the entire team to "get this thing right." Matt Cassel will make his second straight start since reclaiming his job when Brady Quinn suffered a concussion. Kansas City had the league's best running game at one point this season, but Jamaal Charles has rushed for only 83 yards in his last three games.

ABOUT THE STEELERS (5-3): The running game is what has turned things around for Pittsburgh. Isaac Redman gashed the Giants for 147 yards and a touchdown to follow up back-to-back 100-yard performances by Jonathan Dwyer, who sat out last week due to injury. Pittsburgh's defense has also come alive, ranking first in the league in total yards (262.6) and against the pass (174.0). The Steelers limited the Giants to a season-low 182 yards of total offense despite the absence of Pro Bowl safety Troy Polamalu, who will miss his fifth straight game with a calf injury. Ben Roethlisberger has thrown for 16 touchdowns against four interceptions and is one of six quarterbacks with a passer rating above 100.

TRENDS:

* Chiefs are 1-4 ATS in their last five games overall.
* Home team is 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.
* Over is 5-1 in the last six meetings.
* Under is 6-0 in Steelers' last six home games.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. Pittsburgh forced four turnovers in winning at Kansas City 13-9 last season.

2. Crennel is 0-8 all-time against the Steelers.

3. Kansas City, which is allowing 30.0 points per game, cut CB Stanford Routt this week. He was signed to a three-year, $18 million contract in the offseason.


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