The Bum's November's NFL Best Bets !

[StarDust Bum]

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

11/19/12 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1000 Detail
11/18/12 11-*11-*2 50.00% -*550 Detail
11/15/12 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1000 Detail
11/12/12 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1000 Detail
11/11/12 14-*10-*0 58.33% +*1500 Detail
11/08/12 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*50 Detail
11/05/12 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1000 Detail
11/04/12 10-*14-*0 41.67% -*2700 Detail
11/01/12 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1000 Detail

Totals 46-*36-*2 56.10% +3200


Thursday, November 22

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Houston - 12:30 PM ET Houston -3 500

Detroit - Over 49 500

[StarDust Bum]

NFL

Thursday, November 22

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Washington - 4:15 PM ET Washington +3.5 500
Dallas - Under 47 500

New England - 8:20 PM ET N.Y. Jets +6.5 500
N.Y. Jets - Under 49.5 500

[StarDust Bum]

Big NFC Matchups Headline Week 12 In NFL On Sunday

Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

NFL Betting Preview
Date: 11/25/2012 at 1:00 p.m. (ET)
Opening Lines: Pick'em, O/U 48
Television: FOX

Atlanta Falcons: The season's first meeting between the Falcons (9-1 straight-up, 6-4 against the spread) and the Bucs finds Atlanta holding a three-game advantage in the NFC South over Tampa Bay. Atlanta has failed to cover its last two games but is 4-1 SU and ATS on the road this season. The Falcons and Buccaneers split their matchups a year ago, each winning and covering at home.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: First-year head coach Greg Schiano has the Buccaneers (6-4 SU, 8-2 ATS) hitting on all cylinders as they ride a four-game winning streak on the field and at the window into this contest. "Over" bettors are also smiling with a string of seven straight above the total, directly contrasting with this series trend that has seen four of the last six clashes at Raymond James Stadium fail to reach the scoreboard figure.

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San Francisco 49ers at New Orleans Saints

NFL Betting Preview
Date: 11/25/2012 at 4:25 p.m. (ET)
Opening Lines: San Francisco -2, O/U 48½
Television: FOX

San Francisco 49ers: A rematch from last year's NFC Divisional Round in the playoffs, the Niners (7-2-1 SU, 6-4 ATS) come off a very impressive Monday night win over the Bears with second-string quarterback Colin Kaepernick making his first NFL start. Kaepernick was an efficient 16-of-23 for 243 yards and two scoring strikes in the 32-7 triumph, and the San Fran defense held Chicago to less than 150 yards. The "under" is 3-1 in 49ers road games this year.

New Orleans Saints: After starting 0-4, the Saints (5-5 SU, 6-4 ATS) have worked their way back into playoff contention with five wins in the last six games, covering each victory. The ground attack has picked up in recent weeks with at least 140 yards rushing in three consecutive wins. New Orleans has won six of the last seven vs. the 49ers in the Superdome, and seven of the last nine on this Big Easy turf have stayed "under."

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Green Bay Packers at New York Giants

NFL Betting Preview
Date: 11/25/2012 at 8:20 p.m. (ET)
Opening Lines: Giants -2½, O/U 49
Television: NBC

Green Bay Packers: This potential playoff preview finds the Pack (7-3 SU, 5-5 ATS) tied with the Bears at the top of the NFC North and riding a five-game winning streak. Green Bay is 4-1 ATS in the span, winning and covering three games on the road during the stretch. The Packers have also won their last four roadies vs. the G-Men, including a 38-35 triumph last December as 7-point road chalk.

New York Giants: The Giants (6-4 SU, 4-5-1 ATS) come off their bye week having lost the last two games prior to taking Week 11 off. New York QB Eli Manning took most of the heat for those setbacks, as he has gone three games without a TD pass while tossing four picks. The Giants have covered three of the last four in this series, including a 37-20 upset at Green Bay in the playoffs last January, and the last five meetings have all gone past the total.

[StarDust Bum]

Las Vegas Sharps Report - NFLWeek 12
Three NFL games are in the books already, but sports bettors still have a lucky 13 more to study this weekend. Byes are a thing of the past now in the 2012 campaign. We’ll have 16 games per weekend through the end of the season. Let’s see how the Sharps (professional wagerers) are handling this week’s NFL market challenges.

OAKLAND AT CINCINNATI: Oddsmakers anticipated Sharp interest in fading Oakland, a tired, bad team whose defense has faded in recent weeks. Cincinnati opened a half point above a critical number at -7.5 and 48, before getting bet up to -8 and 49.5. Support for a team and an Over is usually tied to a soft opposing defense. This game is sitting right in the basic strategy teaser window. You can put the Bengals in two-teamers and move them below both the 7 and the 3 with the six-point teaser adjustment.

PITTSBURGH AT CLEVELAND:
Sharps are anticipating a tight defensive struggle here. Charlie Batch will replace the injured Byron Leftwich (who replaced the injured Ben Roethlisberger). Sharps look to prefer Batch to Leftwich. An opener of pick-em has been bet up to Pittsburgh -1 or -1.5. The opening total of 36 has been bet down to 34.5 though. That combo represents support for Pittsburgh’s defense against young Brandon Weeden on a field that’s seen low scoring games all season. If the line moves up to Pittsburgh -1.5 and -2 everywhere, that would put the home underdog Browns in the teaser window. You can bet them with a six point adjustment moving up past the 3 and the 7.

BUFFALO AT INDIANAPOLIS:
Not much Sharp interest in this game. Indy has been getting more media respect. But, Buffalo played well vs. Miami last week, while Indy’s soft defense makes it hard to trust them as a favorite. This game opened at Indy -3 on its home field and stayed there. The total has been bet down from 52 to 51.

DENVER AT KANSAS CITY:
Denver opened at -10, and was bet up to -10.5 even though there are old school Sharps who automatically bet double digit underdogs. The Broncos continue to get respect from Sharps under Peyton Manning. It’s telling that the Chiefs didn’t drop back to +10 after the move. Some traditionalists will still support the dog. Many Sharps believe Kansas City has its eye on the #1 draft pick.

TENNESSEE AT JACKSONVILLE: Tennessee drew support here at the opening line of -3. We’re now seeing -3.5 in many places. It takes a lot of money to move off a key number…though less in a game that the public is likely to ignore. Squares won’t have any interest here. Sharps believe Chad Henne is due for a letdown performance after his big game in Houston last week. That plus Jacksonville’s perceived lack of home field advantage is in play here. The Jags have been awful at home all season.

MINNESOTA AT CHICAGO:
No line at press time because Jay Cutler’s status is still up in the air. We can assure you that the Sharps who pounded Chicago last week on game day when Alex Smith was a late scratch for San Francisco have little interest in betting on Jason Campbell again if he gets the call for the Bears. The totals guys are looking Under if Campbell does get the start.

ATLANTA AT TAMPA BAY:
More interest here on the total than the team side. An opener of 48 has been bet up to 49.5 and 50. Tampa Bay’s defense has struggled often in recent action, but their offense continues to surprise. Atlanta opened at pick-em. We’re seeing pick-em or Atlanta -1 in most places. Sharps who were riding the Bucs early largely believe oddsmakers have now adjusted.

SEATTLE AT MIAMI:
Sharps respect Seattle, but they’re not comfortable laying points on the road when teams from the West play early games in the East. This line opened at Seattle -3 and stayed there. Sharps will be looking to bet Seattle in value spots down the stretch when they’re back home again.

BALTIMORE AT SAN DIEGO:
Baltimore opened at -2, but has been bet down to -1 or -1.5. Sharps see this as a tough schedule spot for the Ravens…who had to play a brutal rivalry game last Sunday Night in Pittsburgh, THEN travel to the West Coast. Sharps were looking at San Diego in two-team teasers too. We expect many stores to drop this game to one to keep it out of the teaser window on game day.

SAN FRANCISCO AT NEW ORLEANS: Support has come in on New Orleans, who opened at +2 but is down to +1. Our sources say that’s mostly because of improved play from the Saints in recent weeks, rather than a vote against new Niners quarterback Colin Kaepernick. Sharps saw a lot of Kaepernick when he played for Nevada in college. Those who were skeptical of him as a starter last week regretted it. Though, this is his first road start, and some Sharps do consider that a meaningful angle to attack.

ST. LOUIS AT ARIZONA:
Arizona opened at -3 despite their in flux quarterback situation. Sharps bet St. Louis fairly heavily, driving the line down to Rams +2 or +1.5. Sharps have had mixed success with St. Louis this season. Many lost on them vs. the Jets last week, but have won at other times. The Rams will be in the teaser window as a dog if the price doesn’t move any more.

GREEN BAY AT NY GIANTS:
The Giants opened at -2.5, as books anticipated Green Bay interest. Instead, Sharps hit the home team off a bye week (something they’ve been doing a lot of in recent weeks), driving the number up to a field goal. The total is up two points from 49 to 51…which tells you the weather is probably going to be nice in this much anticipated Sunday Night affair. Late November just isn’t what it used to be for guys who liked betting Unders in cold weather cities.

CAROLINA AT PHILADELPHIA:
Nick Foles has struggled badly in place of Michael Vick. So, Carolina opened as a road favorite here despite their poor record. Sharps bet the Panthers! An opener of -1 is up to -2.5. The places that moved to Carolina -3 did see Eagles money come in at that point. Philadelphia will be in the teaser window if the line stays below three. Looks like there will be a lot of teaser options for round robins this weekend. Of course, many Sharps start off a NEW week with Monday Night teasers that they leave open-ended until the following week’s likes come out. It will be interesting to see how the public bets this game on Monday. Squares love betting Monday Night football, but they’ll have to decide which slumping squad they’ll want to support.

We may have another report on Monday for that Carolina/Philadelphia game if game-day news warrants it. That happened last week with Chicago-San Francisco. For now, Sharps prefer Carolina from -1 to -2, but Philadelphia if they see a +3 because of the percentages involved at that key number.

In the meantime, have a great weekend
Good Luck Den!

[StarDust Bum]

AS OF 8:30 AM Pacific

NFL Consensus Picks


November 25, 2012 »

Sides (ATS)

Time Away Line Picks Pct Home Line Picks Pct Detail Odds

1:00 PM Buffalo +2 1228 30.81% Indianapolis -2 2758 69.19% View View

4:25 PM San Francisco -1 1236 38.52% New Orleans +1 1973 61.48% View View

4:25 PM St. Louis +1 1461 39.20% Arizona -1 2266 60.80% View View

1:00 PM Minnesota +6 193 51.19% Chicago -6 184 48.81% View View

1:00 PM Oakland +9.5 2171 57.75% Cincinnati -9.5 1588 42.25% View View

1:00 PM Tennessee -3.5 2214 58.45% Jacksonville +3.5 1574 41.55% View View

1:00 PM Pittsburgh -1 1865 59.17% Cleveland +1 1287 40.83% View View

8:20 PM Green Bay +2.5 2407 61.81% N.Y. Giants -2.5 1487 38.19% View View

1:00 PM Atlanta -1 2533 62.44% Tampa Bay +1 1524 37.56% View View

4:05 PM Baltimore +1 2464 63.51% San Diego -1 1416 36.49% View View

1:00 PM Seattle -3 2509 63.71% Miami +3 1429 36.29% View View

1:00 PM Denver -10 2615 68.13% Kansas City +10 1223 31.87% View View

Totals (Over/Under)

Time Away Total Home Over Pct Under Pct Detail Odds

1:00 PM Seattle 38 Miami 1082 44.04% 1375 55.96% View View

4:25 PM St. Louis 36.5 Arizona 1134 46.63% 1298 53.37% View View

1:00 PM Pittsburgh 34.5 Cleveland 918 47.49% 1015 52.51% View View

1:00 PM Oakland 50.5 Cincinnati 1222 48.13% 1317 51.87% View View

4:05 PM Baltimore 47 San Diego 1215 51.35% 1151 48.65% View View

1:00 PM Minnesota 38.5 Chicago 140 54.69% 116 45.31% View View

1:00 PM Tennessee 44.5 Jacksonville 1464 59.32% 1004 40.68% View View

1:00 PM Buffalo 51 Indianapolis 1569 59.84% 1053 40.16% View View

1:00 PM Atlanta 52 Tampa Bay 1615 62.62% 964 37.38% View View

1:00 PM Denver 43 Kansas City 1572 63.49% 904 36.51% View View

4:25 PM San Francisco 50 New Orleans 1343 68.17% 627 31.83% View View

8:20 PM Green Bay 51 N.Y. Giants 1830 69.87% 789 30.13% View View

[StarDust Bum]

Sunday, November 25

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Oakland - 1:00 PM ET Oakland +9.5 500
Cincinnati - Under 50.5 500

Pittsburgh - 1:00 PM ET Cleveland +1 500
Cleveland - Under 34 500

Buffalo - 1:00 PM ET Buffalo +2 500
Indianapolis - Over 50.5 500

Tennessee - 1:00 PM ET Tennessee -3.5 500
Jacksonville - Over 44.5 500

Denver - 1:00 PM ET Kansas City +10.5 500
Kansas City - Under 43 500

Minnesota - 1:00 PM ET Minnesota +6.5 500
Chicago - Under 38.5 500

Atlanta - 1:00 PM ET Atlanta -1 500 ( POD )
Tampa Bay - Under 51.5 500

Seattle - 1:00 PM ET Miami +3 500
Miami - Over 38 500

Baltimore - 4:05 PM ET San Diego -1 500
San Diego - Over 47 500

San Francisco - 4:25 PM ET San Francisco -1 500 ( LATE POD )
New Orleans - Over 50 500

St. Louis - 4:25 PM ET St. Louis +1 500
Arizona - Under 36 500

[StarDust Bum]

NFL Consensus Picks

November 25, 2012 »

Sides (ATS)

Time Away Line Picks Pct Home Line Picks Pct Detail Odds

1:00 PM Buffalo +2 1327 30.74% Indianapolis -2 2990 69.26% View View

4:25 PM San Francisco -1 1360 38.49% New Orleans +1 2173 61.51% View View

4:25 PM St. Louis +1 1581 39.49% Arizona -1 2423 60.51% View View

1:00 PM Minnesota +6.5 440 50.93% Chicago -6.5 424 49.07% View View

1:00 PM Oakland +9.5 2360 57.91% Cincinnati -9.5 1715 42.09% View View

1:00 PM Tennessee -3.5 2391 58.27% Jacksonville +3.5 1712 41.73% View View

1:00 PM Pittsburgh -1 2072 59.23% Cleveland +1 1426 40.77% View View

8:20 PM Green Bay +2.5 2575 61.68% N.Y. Giants -2.5 1600 38.32% View View

1:00 PM Atlanta -1 2710 61.84% Tampa Bay +1 1672 38.16% View View

4:05 PM Baltimore +1 2628 62.86% San Diego -1 1553 37.14% View View

1:00 PM Seattle -3 2690 63.23% Miami +3 1564 36.77% View View

1:00 PM Denver -10.5 2821 68.01% Kansas City +10.5 1327 31.99% View View

Totals (Over/Under)

Time Away Total Home Over Pct Under Pct Detail Odds

1:00 PM Seattle 38 Miami 1146 43.39% 1495 56.61% View View

4:25 PM St. Louis 36 Arizona 1214 46.64% 1389 53.36% View View

1:00 PM Pittsburgh 34 Cleveland 1012 46.77% 1152 53.23% View View

1:00 PM Oakland 50.5 Cincinnati 1336 48.53% 1417 51.47% View View

4:05 PM Baltimore 47 San Diego 1321 52.05% 1217 47.95% View View

1:00 PM Minnesota 38.5 Chicago 299 52.36% 272 47.64% View View

1:00 PM Tennessee 44.5 Jacksonville 1575 59.32% 1080 40.68% View View

1:00 PM Buffalo 50.5 Indianapolis 1716 60.44% 1123 39.56% View View

1:00 PM Atlanta 51.5 Tampa Bay 1753 62.72% 1042 37.28% View View

1:00 PM Denver 43 Kansas City 1706 63.85% 966 36.15% View View

4:25 PM San Francisco 50 New Orleans 1477 67.91% 698 32.09% View View

8:20 PM Green Bay 51 N.Y. Giants 1962 70.27% 830 29.73% View

[StarDust Bum]

Monday, November 26

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Carolina - 8:30 PM ET Carolina -2.5 500

Philadelphia - Under 40.5 500

[StarDust Bum]

Falcons Flying High Heading Into Thursday Night Football

New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons

NFL Betting Preview
Date: 11/29/2012 at 8:25 p.m. (ET)
Opening Lines: -3½, O/U 55½
Television: NFL Network

New Orleans Saints: The Saints (5-6 straight-up, 6-5 against the spread) saw their three-game winning streak end with a tough 31-21 home loss to San Francisco last week, and they will try to keep their slim playoff hopes alive by completing a sweep of the Falcons. New Orleans edged Atlanta 31-27 in Week 10 behind 298 passing yards and three touchdowns from quarterback Drew Brees and a resurgent rushing attack. Running backs Chris Ivory and Mark Ingram combined to total 139 yards on the ground against the Falcons, who will also have to deal with the return of Darren Sproles. Although he did not total any rushing yards against the 49ers in his first game back since suffering a broken hand, Sproles led the team with seven catches for 65 yards and did not play in the first meeting. The Saints are 6-2 ATS in their last eight games, and their last two road games have gone “under” the total.

Atlanta Falcons: The Falcons (10-1 SU and 6-4-1 ATS) just keep on winning despite their struggles to cover the spread. They are coming off a 24-23 victory at Tampa Bay last week to push on the final number as 1-point road favorites, dropping their ATS mark to 0-2-1 in the past three. Atlanta QB Matt Ryan continued his strong play through the air, throwing for 353 yards and one touchdown on 26-of-32 attempts. Ryan ranks second in the NFL in passing yardage with 3,425 yards and welcomed back a healthy Julio Jones, who had six catches for a game-high 147 yards with one TD against the Bucs. Jones had played through an ankle injury the week before against Arizona when he was limited to three catches for 33 yards, and he had four catches for 75 yards in the last meeting with New Orleans. The Falcons have seen the total go “under” in three of their last four games along with five of their past seven.

[StarDust Bum]

Saints at Falcons

November 28, 2012


The Atlanta Falcons have enjoyed unprecedented success since owner Arthur Blank made a pair of surprising hires, plucking New England’s Director of College Scouting Thomas Dimitroff to be a General Manager for the first time and choosing Jacksonville defensive coordinator Mike Smith for his first head-coaching gig.

Before 2008, the Falcons had never enjoyed back-to-back winning seasons. On Smith’s watch, they have posted four consecutive winning seasons and are in the midst of a fifth straight. Smith has compiled a 53-22 straight-up record during the regular season.

However, a 0-3 record in the playoffs has stained an otherwise stellar run. Also, Atlanta has struggled to deal with its arch rival, New Orleans, which has won four in a row and seven of the last eight head-to-head meetings.

When these bitter NFC South rivals collide Thursday night at the Ga. Dome, Atlanta (10-1 straight up, 6-4-1 against the spread) will be looking to avenge its lone loss of the season, a 31-27 defeat to the Saints at the Superdome on Nov. 11. The Falcons were stymied on the goal line at crunch time in the loss as one-point road favorites.

This time around, most betting shops have installed Atlanta as a 3 ½-point favorite with a total of 56. Gamblers can take New Orleans (5-6 SU, 6-5 ATS) on the money line for a plus-165 payout (risk $100 to win $165).

Atlanta survived a division road test last week, capturing a 24-23 win at Tampa Bay as a one-point road ‘chalk.’ Michael Turner scored the game-winning touchdown on a three-yard scamper on a quick pitch to the left with 7:55 remaining.

Matt Ryan shook off a five-interception debacle the previous week to complete 26-of-32 throws for 353 yards with one TD and one interception. The Boston College product hit Julio Jones with an 80-yard scoring strike in the third quarter. Jones finished with six receptions for 147 yards.

For the season, Ryan has connected on 68.5 percent of his passes for 3,425 yards with a 21/13 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Jones has made 53 catches for 853 yards and six TDs, while Roddy White has 67 receptions for 1,003 yards and four TDs. Tony Gonzalez has 69 catches for 712 yards and six TDs.

Despite those gaudy numbers, Atlanta needs to start running the ball more effectively if it wants to be successful in January. Turner has averaged only 3.5 yards per carry to date.

New Orleans lost its first four games, only to respond with five wins in its next six games going into last week’s home contests versus San Francisco. The 49ers cooled off the Saints by intercepting Drew Brees twice and returning those picks for touchdowns. They captured a 31-21 victory as one-point road ‘chalk.’

Brees threw for 267 yards and three TDs, but the pick-six’s proved costly. The Purdue product has thrown for 3,333 yards with a 33/11 TD-INT ratio.

The Saints’ woes have been tied to their leaky defense, a unit ranked 28th in the NFL in scoring defense. They give up 27.6 points per game. They are last in rush defense, surrendering 156.5 yards per game on the ground.

New Orleans WR Marques Colston and TE Jimmy Graham have both caught a team-high 55 receptions. Also, both have eight TD grabs apiece.

Atlanta is unbeaten in five home games this season, but it just 2-3 ATS at the Ga. Dome. During Smith’s five-year tenure, the Falcons have compiled a 19-10-1 ATS mark as home favorites.

New Orleans is 2-3 SU and 3-2 ATS in five road assignments this year.

The ‘under’ is 7-4 overall for the Falcons, 4-1 in their home games. Meanwhile, the Saints have seen the ‘over’ go 7-4 overall, 3-2 in their five road assignments. The ‘over’ is 7-3 in the last 10 head-to-head meetings between these clubs.

Kickoff is scheduled for 8:20 p.m. Eastern on The NFL Network.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

--Former Falcon Curtis Lofton, who signed with the Saints in the offseason, says New Orleans doesn’t even really look at Atlanta as a big rival.

--Philadelphia has the NFL’s worst spread record, limping to an atrocious 1-9-1 spread record.

--Tampa Bay owns the NFL’s best spread ledger with an 8-2-1 ATS mark.

--The ‘over’ has hit in nine consecutive New England games. The Patriots have a total of 51 in Sunday’s game at Miami.

--There are six home underdogs on the Week 13 card: Rams (+7 vs. 49ers), Dolphins (+7.5 vs. New England), Chiefs (+3 vs. Panthers), Chargers (+2 vs. Bengals), Titans (+6 vs. Titans) and Redskins (+2.5 vs. Giants on Monday Night Football).

--The ‘under’ is an NFL-best 8-3 for both the Cardinals and Giants.

--The ‘over’ has cashed in seven straight head-to-head meetings between Seattle and Chicago. The Bears-Seahawks’ total for Sunday is 37 ½ at Solider Field.

--After missing back-to-back games, Percy Harvin was upgraded to ‘probable’ on Wednesday for Sunday’s showdown at Green Bay. The Vikings are nine-point underdogs.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL Week 13 Preview: Saints at Falcons

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS (5-6)

at ATLANTA FALCONS (10-1)


Kickoff: Thursday, 8:20 p.m. EDT
Line: Atlanta -3, Total: 55.5

The Falcons try to avenge their lone defeat of the 2012 season when they host the Saints on Thursday night.

Atlanta hasn't been particularly sharp at home with a 2-3 ATS mark at Georgia Dome and failing to win any home game by more than six points. These teams played a very even contest in New Orleans in Week 10, a 31- 27 Saints win, with the Falcons outgaining New Orleans 454-440 and each team turning it over once. Atlanta had a chance to win it late, but couldn’t score in a goal-to-go situation. It was the Saints’ fourth straight victory, SU and ATS, over the Falcons. They’ve won by a field goal in their past two trips to Atlanta.

Who will prevail in this key NFC South showdown? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the ******* Experts picks for every NFL game throughout the 2012 season and playoffs.

Brees has been outstanding versus the Falcons, throwing for 303 yards per game, 29 TD and 12 INT in 11 meetings since joining the Saints. He threw for 298 yards (9.3 YPA), 3 TD and 1 INT when these teams squared off in Week 10. Although the Falcons are an above-average pass defense (222 YPG, 13th in NFL), they have major injury concerns in the secondary with both CBs Asante Samuel (shoulder) and Dunta Robinson (head) questionable. Atlanta has allowed 275+ passing yards in three of its past four games, and Brees has thrown at least 2 TD in nine straight contests. One player Brees will surely lock eyes with is TE Jimmy Graham who has a touchdown in each of his five meetings with Atlanta, including a season-high 146 yards and 2 TD on Nov. 11. The Saints failed to reach 90 rushing yards in six of their first seven games, but began November with games of 140, 148 and 153 rushing yards before limited to 59 yards (on 21 carries) by San Francisco last week. Pierre Thomas leads the team with 341 rushing yards, but has just 11 carries over the past three weeks, including one against the Niners. Mark Ingram leads the team in rushing attempts, including 38 carries in this same three-game span, rushing for 67 yards on 16 attempts (4.2 YPC) in the win over Atlanta. The Falcons rushing defense has been poor (123 YPG, 22nd in NFL), but they have held three of the past five opponents to less than 100 rushing yards limiting Tampa Bay star rookie Doug Martin to just 50 yards on 21 carries last week. The Saints have fared so well on the road thanks to great ball protection, committing just two turnovers in the past four away tilts.

Ryan is just 2-6 in his career versus New Orleans, but he has thrown all over the Saints since the start of 2011, racking up 378 passing YPG, 6 TD and just 2 INT in these past three meetings. These are actually three of his top-five yardage games in his career (76 games), including his eye-popping, 411-yard career high three weeks ago. Ryan will most likely look for top WR Roddy White, who has 981 receiving yards and 6 TD in 11 career meetings with New Orleans. But he also has WR Julio Jones coming off a career-best 147 receiving yards last week in Tampa Bay, and TE Tony Gonzalez who exploded on the Saints for 11 catches, 125 yards and 2 TD three weeks ago. New Orleans has surrendered the third-most passing yards in the NFL (298 YPG), so expect the Falcons to attack mostly through the air. But even though top RB Michael Turner has been struggling (1.9 YPC in past three games), he could certainly find holes in the Saints NFL-worst rushing defense surrendering 157 YPG. Although Atlanta committed six turnovers in its most recent home game two weeks ago, the team has just 10 giveaways in its other 10 games combined. But the Falcons defense has forced just two turnovers in the past five contests, so this outcome should not be determined by miscues.

[StarDust Bum]

NFL

Long Sheet

Week 13

Thursday, November 29

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NEW ORLEANS (5 - 6) at ATLANTA (10 - 1) - 11/29/2012, 8:20 PM
Top Trends for this game.
NEW ORLEANS is 19-10 ATS (+8.0 Units) in all games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) in dome games over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 14-4 ATS (+9.6 Units) in games played on turf over the last 2 seasons.
NEW ORLEANS is 19-10 ATS (+8.0 Units) in all lined games over the last 2 seasons.
ATLANTA is 10-22 ATS (-14.2 Units) in home games off a win against a division rival since 1992.
ATLANTA is 9-23 ATS (-16.3 Units) in home games after 2 or more consecutive wins since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
NEW ORLEANS is 4-1 against the spread versus ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
NEW ORLEANS is 4-1 straight up against ATLANTA over the last 3 seasons
3 of 5 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

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NFL
Short Sheet

Week 13

Thursday, November 29, 2012

(TC) New Orleans at Atlanta, 8:25 ET NFL
New Orleans: 11-1 ATS in the second half of the season
Atlanta: 9-23 ATS at home off BB wins

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NFL

Week 13

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Trend Report
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Thursday, November 29

8:20 PM
NEW ORLEANS vs. ATLANTA
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of New Orleans's last 6 games when playing on the road against Atlanta
The total has gone OVER in 12 of New Orleans's last 16 games
Atlanta is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games at home
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 7 games

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NFL
Dunkel

Week 13

New Orleans at Atlanta
The Falcons look to build on their 4-1 ATS record in their last 5 Thursday games. Atlanta is the pick (-3 1/2) according to Dunkel, which has the Falcons favored by 5 1/2. Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-3 1/2). Here are all of this week's picks.

THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 29

Game 301-302: New Orleans at Atlanta (8:20 p.m. EST)
Dunkel Ratings: New Orleans 133.547; Atlanta 138.869
Dunkel Line: Atlanta by 5 1/2; 51
Vegas Line: Atlanta by 3 1/2; 56
Dunkel Pick: Atlanta (-3 1/2); Under

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NFL
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 13

Saints (5-6) @ Falcons (10-1)—New Orleans (+2) beat Falcons 31-27 at home three weeks ago, Atlanta’s only loss this year, outrushing them 148-46 for 11th win in last 13 series games; Saints won last three visits here, all by exactly three points. Five of last six series games were decided by 4 or less points. Falcons’ last three games were also all decided by 4 or less points; they’re 5-0 at home, with all five wins by 6 or less points (2-3 as HF). Atlanta is 6-4-1 vs spread in last 11 games as a divisional home favorite. Saints are 5-1 when they score 28+ points, 0-5 when they don’t; they’re 2-2 as underdog this year, 1-1 on road. Atlanta allowed 28+ points in only two games, but one of them was against Saints. Last three NO games went over the total; five of last seven Falcon games stayed under. Underdogs are 4-2 vs spread in NFC South divisional games this season.

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NFL

Thursday, November 29

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Thursday Night Football: Saints at Falcons
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New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons (-3.5, 56)

The Atlanta Falcons look to avenge their only loss of the season Thursday when they kick off Week 13 with a rematch with the NFC South-rival New Orleans Saints at the Georgia Dome.

Atlanta opened the season with eight straight victories before running into a hot New Orleans team that posted a 31-27 triumph at home on Nov. 11. Tight end Jimmy Graham caught seven passes for a career-high 146 yards and two touchdowns and Jabari Greer broke up a pass in the end zone on fourth-and-goal late in the fourth quarter to preserve the Saints' fourth win in five games.

Atlanta has squeaked out a pair of wins since the loss to New Orleans, posting a four-point triumph over Arizona before edging the Buccaneers 24-23 in Tampa Bay on Sunday. Seven of the Falcons' 10 victories have been by seven points or less. After opening the campaign with four consecutive setbacks, the Saints got back in playoff contention by winning five of their next six contests. But their postseason hopes took a hit Sunday as they fell to NFC West-leading San Francisco at home, 31-21.

TV: 8:20 p.m. ET, NFL Network.

LINE: The Falcons opened as 3.5-point favorites and have dropped to -3 at some markets. The 56 points total ties the highest total of the season and has dropped to 55.5 at some books.

ABOUT THE SAINTS (5-6, 6-5 ATS): New Orleans would have vaulted into sixth place - and a wild card spot - in the NFC with a win over San Francisco. Instead, it sits in 11th and faces two more division leaders over the next two weeks. Quarterback Drew Brees extended his NFL-record streak of consecutive games with a touchdown pass to 54 with three scoring tosses but also had two passes intercepted and returned for TDs. He now has 31 touchdown strikes this year, making him just the third QB in league history to reach the 30-TD plateau in five or more seasons. Brees joins Brett Favre (nine) and Peyton Manning (six) in that category. Brees (2008-12) and Favre (1994-98) are the only two to do it in five consecutive campaigns. Wide receiver Marques Colston notched a franchise-record 56th touchdown of his career Sunday. He had been tied with Deuce McAllister atop the franchise list.

ABOUT THE FALCONS (10-1, 6-4-1 ATS): Sunday's margin of victory could have been larger had Matt Bryant not struggled. The kicker missed a 22-yard field-goal attempt as time expired in the first half and failed to convert a 48-yarder with eight seconds remaining in the fourth quarter. It was the second time in four games Bryant has missed a pair of attempts. Wide receiver Julio Jones showed no signs of injury against Tampa Bay, catching six passes for 147 yards - including an 80-yard touchdown reception in the third quarter. Jones had been limited in practice last week due to a sore right ankle. Quarterback Matt Ryan has now led five game-winning drives in the fourth quarter this season and 21 during his five-year career. Running back Michael Turner capped the latest one Sunday, scoring on a 3-yard run with 7:55 remaining.

TRENDS:

* Saints are 4-0 ATS in their last four meetings.
* Over is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings.
* Underdog is 6-1 ATS in their last seven meetings.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. The Saints have won four straight and 11 of the last 13 meetings between the division rivals.

2. Graham and Atlanta's Tony Gonzalez became the first pair of tight ends to have at least 120 yards receiving and two TDs in the same game.

3. Gonzalez caught a pair of scoring passes in the first meeting, the first making him the first tight end in NFL history with 100 touchdown receptions.


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NFL

Thursday, November 29

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Tale of the tape: New Orleans Saints at Atlanta Falcons
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Time is running out on the Saints, as they travel to Atlanta to face the rival Falcons Thursday night. Find out how this matchup breaks down in all three facets of the game with our tale of the tape.

Offense

New Orleans was held under 28 points for the first time in four games against San Francisco last Sunday. Drew Brees threw for only 267 yards in the loss, but did find the end zone three times to go along with two interceptions. Brees has thrown 11 picks already this season after tossing only 14 all of last year. Perhaps he's trying to do too much, with the Saints ground game stuck in neutral. They ran for just 59 yards on 21 attempts last Sunday, and are averaging 91.5 rush yards per game on the season.

Atlanta has been the picture of consistency on offense this season, scoring at least 23 points in all but one of its 11 games. Matt Ryan has thrown for over 300 yards in four consecutive games, while Jacquizz Rodgers appears to be slowly overtaking Michael Turner as the team's feature running back. With Julio Jones, Roddy White, and Tony Gonzalez enjoying tremendous success, the Falcons’ ground game has become a bit of an afterthought this season.

Edge: Atlanta


Defense

Not surprisingly, we've seen the Saints defense take a step back in the post-Gregg Williams era. They did appear to be gaining some traction, having held their last three opponents to a combined 57 points before giving up 31 against the 49ers. Their defense - or lack thereof - is a big reason why the Saints have been outgained in terms of total yardage in each of their last seven contests. Note that New Orleans has held its own defensively in this series, giving up 24 points or less in regulation time in five of its last six meetings with Atlanta.

The Falcons haven't been healthy on the defensive side of the football for much of the season, but have still put up some solid numbers. They've been gashed by the run at times, allowing 4.8 yards per rush on the year, but have made up for it with a secondary that allows just seven yards per pass play. Asante Samuel, Dunta Robinson, and Peria Jerry have all missed practice time this week, but at least two of the three are expected to play Thursday night.

Edge: Atlanta


Special teams

The Saints have been atrocious on punt returns this season, averaging a paltry 5.8 yards per return. It's unlikely we'll see them break through in that department against a Falcons special teams unit that allows only 7.6 ypr. The good news is, the Saints’ kick return game has been much better, gaining a whopping 27.9 ypr. Specialist Courtney Roby has been a big contributor. Kicker Garrett Hartley hasn't been busy, converting on only nine of 12 field goal attempts.

Like the Saints, the Falcons have struggled returning punts, but have performed above the league average on kickoffs. They'll go against a New Orleans special teams unit that allows close to nine yards per punt return, and 22 yards on kickoffs. Few kickers have been as reliable as Matt Bryant this season. He's had a heavy workload, and has made the most of it, converting 26-of-31 field goal attempts.

Edge: Atlanta


Word on the street

"It makes it more juicy. It makes the rivalry better. And I like competing against these guys. We always know we're gonna get a good game." -- Saints safety Roman Harper referring to the trash talk leading up to this week's game.

"Ten and one is great, but I'll tell you what I've said since the beginning of the season: We're just jockeying for position. We just want to put ourselves in the best position, playing the best football." -- Falcons tight end Tony Gonzalez speaking about his team's NFC-best record.

[StarDust Bum]

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

11/26/12 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1000 Detail
11/25/12 11-*9-*2 55.00% +*550 Detail
11/22/12 2-*3-*1 40.00% -*650 Detail
11/19/12 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1000 Detail
11/18/12 11-*11-*2 50.00% -*550 Detail
11/15/12 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1000 Detail
11/12/12 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1000 Detail
11/11/12 14-*10-*0 58.33% +*1500 Detail
11/08/12 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*50 Detail
11/05/12 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1000 Detail
11/04/12 10-*14-*0 41.67% -*2700 Detail
11/01/12 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1000 Detail

Totals 61-*48-*5 55.96% +4100


NFL

Thursday, November 29

Game Score Status Pick Amount

New Orleans - 8:20 PM ET New Orleans +3.5 500

Atlanta - Under 56 500