The Bum's October's College Football Best Bets !

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No. 2 Florida, No. 10 Georgia clash in Jacksonville

FLORIDA GATORS (7-0)
vs. GEORGIA BULLDOGS (6-0)

Everbank Field - Jacksonville, FL
Kickoff: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. EDT
Line: Florida -6.5, Total: 49

Unbeaten No. 2 Florida and 10th-ranked Georgia square off in Jacksonville for their annual neutral-site meeting on Saturday afternoon.

The World's Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party hasn’t been much fun for Georgia, which is 4-18 in the past 22 meetings with Florida. But the Bulldogs barked loudly in last year’s 24-20 victory, outrushing the Gators 185 to minus-19 yards. This season, Florida’s defense has been stellar, allowing just 12.1 PPG (4th in FBS) and 282 total YPG (7th in nation), and posting six straight ATS wins. Georgia barely beat 26-point underdog Kentucky last week 29-24, marking its third straight ATS loss.

Which top-10 team will leave Jacksonville victorious? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the ******* Experts picks for every key college football game throughout the 2012 season.

Gators QB Jeff Driskel was quite efficient in last week's 44-11 rout of South Carolina, as four of his 11 completions went for touchdowns. In the previous game, Driskel rushed for 177 yards and three touchdowns in a win over Vanderbilt. His Gators team was held to a mere 89 yards on 48 carries last week, but South Carolina's run-stop unit is much tougher than Georgia's rushing defense which has allowed 211 rushing YPG in its past three contests. If Florida's offense is to get back on track, it will need to know where UGa star linebacker Jarvis Jones is at all times. Jones had four sacks in last year's matchup in Jacksonville, and already has 5.5 sacks this season. Defensively, Florida has helped itself with 15 takeaways this season, including 11 over the past four games. But the strength of the team is its rushing defense that ranks 10th in the country (97 rush YPG) and has allowed a paltry 68 rushing YPG on 2.1 yards per carry in the past three contests.

Although Murray has been tremendous this season (9.6 YPA, 16 TD, 4 INT), he wasn't great in last year's meeting with Florida, completing just 15-of-34 passes for 169 yards (5.0 YPA), 2 TD and 1 INT. Bulldogs leading receiver Tavarres King (511 rec. yds, 5 TD) is coming off a season-high 188 receiving yards and 2 TD versus Kentucky, and has scored in each of the past two meetings with the Gators. But for Georgia's passing attack to be more efficient this time around, the ground game has to improve. In the past two weeks, the Bulldogs have rushed for only 192 yards on 68 carries (2.8 YPC). Leading rusher, freshman Todd Gurley (622 rush yds, 9 TD), has just 86 yards on 25 carries (3.4 YPC) in this two-game span. Georgia shouldn't have much trouble with Florida's passing game, considering it allows less than 200 passing YPG this year (28th in FBS), but its 74th-ranked rushing defense could have its problems stopping Florida's multi-player ground attack. The Bulldogs have not forced a turnover in either of its past two games.

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No. 14 Texas Tech visits No. 3 KSU on Saturday

TEXAS TECH RED RAIDERS (6-1)
at KANSAS STATE WILDCATS (7-0)

Kickoff: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. EDT
Line: Kansas State -7, Total: 60.5

Two of the biggest surprises in the Big 12 do battle on Saturday when No. 3 Kansas State hosts No. 14 Texas Tech.

Texas Tech defeated Kansas State five straight times (SU and ATS) until last year’s 41-34 Wildcats’ win in Lubbock where the Red Raiders gained 580 yards, but committed four turnovers. TTU’s Seth Doege threw for 1 TD and 3 INT in that loss, but he has 817 passing yards and 13 TD in the past two games, wins over West Virginia and TCU in overtime. KSU’s Collin Klein is the Heisman front-runner after scoring seven times and completing 19-of-21 passes in last week’s 55-14 win over WVU. He has 14 touchdowns in the past three games.

Will the Wildcats remain unbeaten after Saturday? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the ******* Experts picks for every key college football game throughout the 2012 season.

Doege ranks seventh in the nation in passing efficiency, throwing for 2,209 yards (8.3 YPA) with a nation-leading 28 TD. That includes stellar road numbers of 323 passing YPG, 15 TD and just 2 INT in three away games. He has done a great job using all of his talented receivers, with an emphasis on finding his three best pass catchers -- TE Jace Amaro (394 rec yds, 4 TD), WR Darrin Moore (377 rec yds, 8 TD) and WR Eric Ward (356 rec yds, 8 TD). Because Doege has thrown the football in excess of 40 times in each game, the rushing attack is sometimes overlooked. The Red Raiders have rushed for just 98 YPG in Big 12 action, as leading ground gainer Kenny Williams (423 rush yds, 3 TD), has carried the ball just 19 times in the past three weeks for 102 yards (5.4 YPC). On the other side of the football, TTU ranks seventh in the nation in total defense (282 YPG), despite having just played Oklahoma, West Virginia and TCU. The defense has taken more gambles on the road this year, forcing nine turnovers in three away games, compared to just one takeaway in three home tilts.

Klein ranks second in the nation in passing efficiency (71% completions, 10.1 YPA, 10 TD, 2 INT) having not thrown an interception in four straight games spanning 80 pass attempts. He had a well-rounded game in last year's 41-34 win over Texas Tech, completing 12-of-18 passes for 146 yards, 1 TD and 0 INT, while adding 110 yards and 3 TD on the ground. John Hubert has also had a strong season running the football (658 rush yds, 8 TD), but he was nothing special against the Red Raiders last year with 76 yards on 19 carries. KSU's offensive line has allowed just five sacks all year, and the Wildcats also have great special teams with a nation's best 26.3 yards per punt return and 27.4 yards per kick return (7th in FBS) led by Tyler Lockett's 30.9 average. Defensively, the Wildcats have held five of seven opponents to less than 100 rushing yards, and have decreased their passing yards allowed in each of the past four games from 298 to 213 to 166 to 155 last week. For the season, they have allowed just 7 TD through the air while recording eight interceptions as part of their impressive +12 turnover margin.

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No. 8 Oklahoma hosts No. 5 Notre Dame Saturday

NOTRE DAME FIGHTING IRISH (7-0)
at OKLAHOMA SOONERS (5-1)

Kickoff: Saturday, 8:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Oklahoma -11, Total: 48

No. 5 Notre Dame tries to stay unbeaten when it faces its toughest test of the season, a trip to No. 8 Oklahoma.

Notre Dame is 8-1 SU all-time versus Oklahoma, but the schools have played just once since 1969, a 34-30 Irish win in 1999. Notre Dame is on a two-game ATS skid, and has scored 20 points or less five times this year. But the Irish have not allowed more than 17 points in a game this year, ranking second in FBS with 9.4 PPG allowed and placing sixth in the nation with 281 YPG allowed. No Sooners opponent has eclipsed 24 points in 2012, as the offense has piled up 52.0 PPG and 485 YPG during a three-game win streak (SU and ATS).

Can Oklahoma win comfortably against the Irish on Saturday night? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the ******* Experts picks for every key college football game throughout the 2012 season.

Notre Dame will start Everett Golson under center for this game after sitting out last week's win over BYU because of a concussion. He has reached 200 passing yards just once this year and his overall numbers aren't fantastic: 58.5% completions, 7.2 YPA, 4 TD, 3 INT. Backup QB Tommy Rees could also play for a fifth straight game, but he struggled against the Cougars last week, completing 7-of-16 passes for 117 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT. However, the running game will be much more vital to the Irish's success on Saturday. They rushed for 270 yards last week, 150 the prior week and 376 against Miami three weeks ago. Theo Riddick (451 rush yds, 3 TD) had a season-high 143 rushing yards on 9.5 YPC in last week's win, while Cierre Wood (393 rush yds, 2 TD) rumbled for 114 yards on 18 attempts (6.3 YPC). Defensively, Notre Dame simply has no weakness, ranking 14th in the nation in passing defense (174 YPG) and 16th in FBS against the run (107 YPG). Although the Tackles For Loss numbers are weak (4.7 per game, T-102nd in nation), the 2.7 sacks per game rank 21st in the country. The Irish have forced 2+ turnovers in five of seven games, totaling 17 takeaways this season.

Oklahoma enters Saturday with a 79-4 SU record at home under Bob Stoops. QB Landry Jones has eclipsed 300 passing yards just once this season, but he has thrown for 880 yards, 7 TD and 1 INT in his past three games, leading his team to 15 scores (12 TD, 3 FG) in the past 20 drives. But the Sooners rely on Kenny Stills way too much, as his 38 catches are 15 more than any other teammate, and he's the only player to reach 300 receiving yards this year with 471 yards and 4 TD. Notre Dame has allowed just 5 TD through the air this year, while racking up 12 INT. Oklahoma ran all over Texas two weeks ago (343 yards), but has averaged just 101 rushing YPG on 4.1 YPC in its other three games versus BCS opponents (all in Big 12). Going up against an Irish defense that hasn't allowed a single rushing touchdown this year will certainly be a challenge. Damien Williams leads the Sooners with 552 rushing yards and 7 TD, but has been held under 50 rushing yards in three of the past four games. Defensively, Oklahoma has been pretty solid all year, not allowing more than 24 points in a game, and ranking among the nation's top-15 in passing defense (164 YPG, 9th), scoring defense (15.3 PPG, 12th) and total defense (303 YPG, 15th). It has also forced three turnovers in each of the past three games. But the pass rush has generated just two sacks per game, a number far below its 3.1 sacks per game in 2011, which ranked eighth in the country.

[StarDust Bum]

CFB | NOTRE DAME at OKLAHOMA
Play Over - All teams where the total is between 42.5 and 49 in a game involving two dominant teams (outgain opponents by 1.2+ YPP), in a non-conference game between two teams from major division 1-A conferences
46-18 since 1997. ( 71.9% | 26.2 units )
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CFB | INDIANA at ILLINOIS
Play Against - A home team vs. the money line (ILLINOIS) after being beaten by the spread by 28 or more points total in their last three games against opponent after going over the total by 35 or more points total in their last three games
31-17 since 1997. ( 64.6% | 0.0 units )
1-1 this year. ( 50.0% | 0.0 units )
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CFB | NEVADA at AIR FORCE
Play Under - Any team vs the the 1rst half total after 3 or more consecutive losses against the spread, a good team (60% to 80%) playing a team with a winning record
46-18 over the last 5 seasons. ( 71.9% | 26.2 units )
1-2 this year. ( 33.3% | -1.2 units )

[StarDust Bum]

Tech Trends - Week 9

October 24, 2012


Saturday, Oct. 27
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

NAVY at EAST CAROLINA...Navy dropped 76 on ECU the last time in invaded Greenville. But Pirates won by 3 LY at Annapolis. Mids 30-14 as road dog since late 2002. Navy, based on team trends.

UMASS at VANDERBILT...Dores 9-2 vs. line at home since James Franklin arrived LY and 5-0 as Nashville chalk that span. Vandy, based on team trends.

OHIO at MIAMI-OHIO...Miami-O hasn't beaten Ohio SU since Solich's first season in 2005. Solich had covered five in a row vs. RedHawks until LY's 21-14 win and non-cover. Ohio no covers last 3 or 4 of last 5 TY, however. But Miami-O just 1-6 vs. line this season. Ohio, based on series trends.

BALL STATE at ARMY...Lembo 6-2 vs. line in 2012, 8-3 vs. line away since LY, and Cards 27-12 vs. number on road since 2007. West Point 0-7 SU last seven vs. MAC, including 48-21 loss at Muncie LY. Ball State, based on team trends.

AKRON at CENTRAL MICHIGAN...CMU 4-23 vs. line last 27 for Dan Enos. Road team 7-1 vs. line in Akron games TY (Zips 3-0 away). Akron, based on team trends.

EASTERN MICHIGAN at BOWLING GREEN...BGSU has covered last four TY (all as chalk) as favorite has covered last seven Falc games TY. BGSU, based on recent trends.

NORTHERN ILLINOIS at WESTERN MICHIGAN...IU has covered 4 of last 5 and 9 of last 11 in series. WMU 3-1 vs. line at Waldo Stadium TY but 0-4 as dog in 2012. NIU has covered last 4 in 2012 and is 6-2 vs. line TY. NIU, based on series and team trends.

TEMPLE at PITTSBURGH...Note Owls 19-10 as dog since 2007 (Al Golden and Addazio). Pitt 2-6 as 7 or fewer home chalk since 2007. Temple, based on team trends.

INDIANA at ILLINOIS...Ill. no covers last four TY, and 1-6 as single-digit home chalk since 2010. Indiana, based on Illini woes.

PURDUE at MINNESOTA...Purdue 3-5 as road chalk since 2010. Gophers 8-4 last 12 on board. Slight to Minnesota, based on recent trends.

IOWA at NORTHWESTERN...Iowa won 41-31 LY at Iowa City but NU has covered 3 of last 4 and 5 of last 7 in series. Ferentz 1-1 vs. line away TY but 4-10 in role since 2010. NU, based on team and series trends.

DUKE at FLORIDA STATE...Duke 1-2 vs. line away TY, but Cutcliffe 30-19-2 vs. line since taking over Blue Devils in 2008. Jimbo 3-1 vs. line at home TY but only 6-5 as host since 2011. Duke, based on extended trends.

MARYLAND at BOSTON COLLEGE...Six pretty good efforts in a row from Terps, although just 4-2 SU vs. line in those games. Spaziani no covers last five TY and 1-6 vs. line in 2012. Spaziani 4-12 vs. line at Chestnut Hill since 2010. Maryland, based on team trends.

MISSISSIPPI STATE at ALABAMA...Road team has covered first seven Bama games TY (Tide 0-3 vs. line as host). Bama barely failed to cover vs. MSU LY but had won and covered previous three meetings. Slight to MSU, based on recent trends.

UTAH STATE at UTSA...USU 7-1 vs. line in 2012 and 23-12 vs. line away from Logan since 2007. USU, based on team trends.

HAWAII at COLORADO STATE...Hawaii no wins or covers last four TY, CSU 1-5 vs. line last 6 TY. Slight to CSU, based on team trends.

BAYLOR at IOWA STATE...Baylor 3-5 as road dog since 2010 (but 2-0 TY), ISU 9-5 vs. spread last 14 on board. ISU, based on recent trends.

TEXAS A&M at AUBURN...Chizik 7-13 against number since Cam departed. A&M, based on recent Auburn woes.

CALIFORNIA at UTAH...Tedford 2-1 vs. line away TY but extended road numbers not good (5-10 since 2010, 12-23 since 2007). Slight to Utah, based on extended Cal road marks.

TEXAS at KANSAS...Mack has won and covered big his last four vs. KU, but hasn't played every year since 2004. Mack is 5-1 as road chalk since LY. Texas, based on team and series trends.

MICHIGAN STATE at WISCONSIN...MSU 2-6 vs. spread in what has been a disappointing 2012. Meanwhile, Bielema has covered last four TY. MSU has covered last three (all as dog) in highly-entertaining series. Dog has covered 5 of last 6 meetings. MSU, based on series trends.

COLORADO at OREGON...Ducks have covered last two as Autzen DD chalk after no covers previous eight in role. Buffs 2-12 as road dog since 2010. Slight to Oregon, based on team trends.

NC STATE at NORTH CAROLINA...Home team 8-0 vs. line in Heel games TY. But NCS 28-9 vs. line after fifth game of season under Tom O'Brien since he arrived in Raleigh in 2007. O'Brien has won and covered all five vs. UNC since taking over Wolfpack 2007. NCS, based on team and series trends.

BOISE STATE at WYOMING...Boise 24-7 vs. spread away from blue carpet since 2008. Wyo 3-6 as home dog under Dave Christensen, and road team has covered last three in series. Broncos 12-4 as road chalk since 2010. Boise, based on team and series trends.

UTEP at HOUSTON...UTEP fading TY with covers last 4, and 1-5 vs. line last six in 2012. Cougs 8-3 against spread as host since LY. Houston, based on recent trends.

BYU at GEORGIA TECH...Bronco Mendenhall has covered last six as road dog. BYU, based on team trends.

FLORIDA vs. GEORGIA (at Jacksonville)...Gators hot, with covers last six TY. Bulldogs 4-3-1 vs. line last 8 in series that had previously been dominated by Gators (especially under Spurrier). Richt only 6-12 vs. line away since 2010, and only 4-10 as dog since 2007. Florida, based on recent trends.

KENTUCKY at MISSOURI...Joker 2-10 vs. spread away since taking over in 2010. Pinkel 6-4 vs. line as DD home chalk since 2010 (1-0 TY). Mizzou, based on UK negatives.

UCLA at ARIZONA STATE...Home team has covered last five in series, including pair of big ASU wins in Tempe. Bruins no covers 3 of past 4 TY. ASU, based on team and series trends.

SOUTHERN CAL at ARIZONA...Dog series, with the "short" covering last 7 meetings, and Arizona covering six of those. Tosh.O Kiffin only 2-5 vs. line TY and 0-4 vs. spread away from Coliseum. Arizona, based on series and team trends.

KENT STATE at RUTGERS...Golden Flashes have covered last five TY, although Kent only 1-5 as road dog since LY, and no covers four as non-MAC visitor. Rutgers 14-6 vs. line since last season. Slight to Kent State, based on recent trends.

TEXAS STATE at SAN JOSE STATE...SJSU 6-1 vs. line TY and 9-1 last 10 since late 2011. Spartans 4-1 as chalk TY after 0-5 mark in role past two years. SJSU, based on team trends.

WASHINGTON STATE at STANFORD...Dog is 5-2 in Tree games TY, and Stanford only 2-3 as chalk this season. But Leach only 2-5 vs. spread in 2012. Slight to WSU, based on recent dog-in-Tree trends.

OHIO STATE at PENN STATE...O'Brien on 6-game cover streak since opening loss to Solich. Urban Meyer only 2-5 vs. spread last seven TY. Slight to Penn State, based on recent trends.

OREGON STATE at WASHINGTON...Beavers have owned this series, as Riley now has eight covers in a row against Huskies. Riley 3-0 SU and vs. line away TY. OSU, based on series trends.

TEXAS TECH at KANSAS STATE...KSU is 14-6 vs. line overall since 2011 Snyder 3-1 as home chalk TY, Tuberville 2-4 as road dog since 2010. Although Red Raiders have won and covered first three on road TY. KSU, based on recent trends.

SYRACUSE at SOUTH FLORIDA...Road team has covered last three years in series and in fact Bulls have covered 6 of last seven since joining Big East in 2005. But Skip Holtz 0-4 as chalk TY and is just 1-10 last 11 as favorite or pick 'em since mid 2011. Slight to Cuse, based on recent Skip chalk woes.

TCU at OKLAHOMA STATE...If Patterson is dog note 9-3 mark in rare role since 2005. TCU, based on extended trends.

UCF at MARSHALL...Road team has covered last four in series. Herd, however, is 4-1 as home dog since 2010 (1-1 TY). Slight to Marshall, bassed on team trends.

TOLEDO at BUFFALO...Rockets 3-1 vs. line away TY, 11-7 vs. line on road since 2010. Bulls 0-2 vs. line at home TY (road team 6-1 vs. spread first six UB games) and only 11-20 vs. points as host since 2007. Toledo, based on team trends.

TENNESSEE at SOUTH CAROLINA...Spurrier 8-2 last ten on board. Also covered last five at Williams-Brice. Derek Dooley 4-13 vs. line as dog since 2010. SC, based on team trends.

OLE MISS at ARKANSAS (at Little Rock)...Rebs have covered last four and 6-1 first seven vs. points TY, Hugh "Pointspread Cover" Freeze now 16-3 vs. line since LY! Ole Miss, based on Hugh "Pointspread Cover" Freeze trends.

LA TECH at NEW MEXICO STATE...La Tech has won and covered big the last three years vs. DeWayne Walker (total score 130-27). Sonny Dykes 13-1 last 14 on board and has covered all 12 away from Ruston since LY. La Tech, based on team and series trends.

NOTRE DAME at OKLAHOMA...Brian Kelly 3-0 vs. line away TY and his teams are 13-5 as dog (Cincy and ND) since 2007. Stoops 8-6 vs. line at home since 2010. ND, based on team trends.

UAB at TULANE...Wave 15-30-1 last 46 on board since late 2008, also 6-20 vs. line last 26 at Superdome since mid 2008. UAB, based on Tulane negatives.

MEMPHIS at SMU...June Jones 7-13 last 20 and 10-18 last 28 on board. Memphis, however, just 3-6 last 9 on road and 5-11 last 16 as dog. Slight to SMU, based on Memphis negatives.

SOUTHERN MISS at RICE...Ellis Johnson still winless SU (0-6) at USM and Golden Eagles only 2-5 vs. line. Rice 10-4-1 vs. line at home since 2010 and if dog 17-7 last 24 in role at home dog since mid 2005. Rice, based on team trends.

MICHIGAN at NEBRASKA...Bo Pelini just 7-13-1 vs. spread last 21 on board. Brady Hoke teams at SDSU & Michigan now 21-12 vs. number last 32 on board. Michigan, based on team trends.

UNLV at SAN DIEGO STATE...Rebs have now lost 19 straight on road and 2-17 vs. line in those games, Bobby Hauck 2-15 vs. spread away since 2010. Aztecs have covered last 6 and 9 of last 10 meetings. SDSU, based on team and series trends.

FRESNO STATE at NEW MEXICO...Bob Davie has covered last five in 2012 and Tim DeRuyter is 7-1 vs. line in Fresno debut. Lobos 10-2 vs. line last 12 on board. New Mexico, based on team trends.

Saturday, Oct. 27 - Added Games
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

SOUTH ALABAMA at UL-MONROE...Warhawks 6-1 vs. line TY and 9-2 last 11 on board. ULM, based on team trends.

WESTERN KENTUCKY at FIU...WKU 15-1 vs. line last 16 on baord. Cristobal, however, is 8-3 as home dog since 2007. WKU, based on team trends.

NORTH TEXAS at MIDDLE TENNESSEE...MTSU in revenge mode after 59-7 loss LY. Mean Green have covered last two in series after MTSU had covered previous four. Slight to MTSU, based on extended series trends.

TROY at FLORIDA ATLANTIC...Troy has won and covered big vs. FAU the last four years. Owls, however, have covered their last five this season. Slight to FAU, based on recent trends.

[StarDust Bum]

Pac-12 Report - Week 9

October 26, 2012


Saturday - Southern California at Arizona (ABC/ESPN2, 3:30 p.m. ET)
Matchup Five-Star Game

Arizona and head coach Rich Rodriguez could use a signature win, and taking down Pac-12 behemoth USC would definitely fit that bill. The Wildcats have started out 1-3 in conference play, and are quickly fading from the bowl picture. They need two victories to become bowl eligible, and really are likely to be favored in just one of their remaining games. USC covered a giant number last weekend against Colorado, and this week they'll only need to cover six points. USC is just 2-5 ATS this season, but as mentioned they covered last week, and are 2-2 ATS in their past four. Arizona comes in having covered two straight, and they are 4-2 ATS in their past six. In this series, the road team is 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings, but USC is just 1-6 ATS in the past seven battles. In addition, the underdog is a perfect 7-0 ATS in the last seven contests between the sides. The under might be a better play, as the number has gone under in four of USC's past five, and the under is 5-1 in their past six Pac-12 games. The under is also 7-3 in USC's past 10 road games against a team with a winning home record. For Arizona, the over is 5-1 in their past six home games. However, the under is 19-6-1 in their past 26 home games against a team with a winning road record. The under is also a perfect 4-0 in the past four meetings in Arizona, and 5-1 in the past six meetings overall.

Saturday - UCLA at Arizona State (FX, 3:00 p.m. ET)
Matchup Four-Star Game

This is a battle of two 5-2 teams with major bowl implications in the Pac-12. The Bruins need to get it together if they're going to remain in that picture, or they'll be playing mighty early in the bowl season. UCLA is just 7-17 ATS in their past 24 Pac-12 games, they're just 10-22 ATS in their past 32 games on grass, and just 2-14 ATS in their past 16 games in the month of October. AZ State, on the other hand, is 5-1 ATS in their past six games on grass, 3-1-1 in their past five games in the month of October, and 5-2 ATS in the past seven games overall. However, in this series, UCLA has covered seven of the past nine, though the home team is a perfect 5-0. That's a bit confusing. The total might not be. The under has cashed in seven of UCLA's past eight games following an ATS loss, and the under has cashed in four of their five games overall. The under is also 37-15-1 in their past 53 Pac-12 games. For AZ State, the under is also 4-1 in their past five games overall, and 5-1 in their past six home games against a team with a winning road record. However, the over is 8-3 in the past 11 home games for the Sun Devils, so maybe take the under and bet lightly, especially if you can get it at 58 or higher.

Saturday - Oregon State at Washington (Pac-12 Network, 10:15 p.m. ET)
Matchup Three-Star Game

The public is in love with the Beavers this weekend, picking them at a nearly 2-to-1 clip to cover in Seattle against the Huskies. The public had similar trust in Stanford a few weeks back on a Thursday, and were smacked by Washington. Love for Oregon State might be warranted, however. First, they get QB Sean Mannion back from injury. He missed the past two games due to a knee injury. QB Cody Vaz did an admirable just leading the team to a pair of wins in his first two collegiate starts, and he is waiting in the wings if Mannion is rusty. Second, Oregon State is a robust 6-1-1 ATS in their past eight games, and 4-1-1 ATS in their past six Pac-12 battles. In addition, Oregon State is a whopping 40-14-1 in their past 55 games in the month of October. For Washington, they are 8-2 ATS in their past 10 home games, but just 2-6 ATS in their past eight against teams with a winning record. In addition, the Huskies are a dismal 13-36-2 ATS in their past 51 games in the month of October. Now, here is the dealbreaker if you were leaning toward U-Dub: Oregon State is a perfect 8-0 ATS in the past eight meetings, and 5-0 ATS in their past five trips to Seattle.

Saturday - Washington State at Stanford (Pac-12 Network, 6:15 p.m. ET)
Matchup Two-Star Game

This is a game the Cardinal should dominate, as they're a 5-2 team which is battle-tested against a difficult early slate of opponent, against a Cougars team still finding its way. Washington State is 1-3-1 ATS in their past five road contests, and 2-5-1 ATS in their past eight games overall. However, Washington State is 5-2 ATS in their past seven games against a team with a winning record, so they definitely rise for the occasion. Stanford is 5-0-1 ATS in their past six games against a team with a losing record, and they are 20-5-1 ATS in their past 26 games following an ATS win. Stanford is also a solid 13-4-1 ATS in their past 18 Pac-12 games, and have been a bettor's friend by going 35-16-1 ATS over their past 52 overall. In this series, the fave is 5-1 ATS in the past six battles, and the Cougars are an awful 5-12 ATS in the past 17 meetings.

Saturday - Colorado at Oregon (Pac-12 Network, 3:00 p.m. ET)
Matchup One-Star Game

Poor Colorado. They might be regretting their move to the Pac-12 right about now, as they are in the second of a three-game stretch at USC, at Oregon and home to Stanford. Ouch. The Buffaloes were drilled 50-6 last week at SC, and they have now failed to cover in six of their seven games this season. They're an awful football team, and not showing any signs of getting better. Last season, they were punished by UO 45-2. It should be more of the same this weekend, and this game wouldn't even be a one-star matchup if not for the fact it involved Oregon. After some early backdoor covers, and an 0-3 ATS mark to start the season, the Ducks have gained traction and are 3-1 ATS over their past four. While Colorado is 7-20 ATS in their past 27 road games, and 2-10 ATS in their past 12 games a team with a winning record, the Ducks are 23-8-2 ATS in their past 33 tries against a team with a losing record, and 9-4-2 ATS in their past 15 Pac-12 battles.

Saturday - California at Utah (No TV, 9:45 p.m. ET)
Matchup Other Game to Watch

It's ironic this is a game under 'Game to Watch' when there is no television, but anyway. Cal is just 4-9 ATS in the past 13 games, although during that span they ruined a lot of bettors' plans with a sound victory over UCLA. Cal also hasn't played particularly well against team's with a losing record, going 3-7 ATS over their past 10 games in that situation. For Utah, they have bounced back well after a straight-up loss, going 6-1 ATS in the following game. In addition, they are 10-3 ATS in their past 13 games against a team with a losing record. However, the better way to go might be the total. The under has cashed in four straight for Cal against a team with a losing record, and is 4-1 in Cal's past five overall. The under is also 21-8 in Cal's past 29 Pac-12 games. For Utah, the under is 4-1 in their past five conference games, 5-1 in their past six visits from a team with a losing road record, and 5-1 in the past six in the month of October.

[StarDust Bum]

Big Ten Report - Week 9

October 24, 2012

It's the final weekend of October and the Big Ten picture is finally starting to take place. Michigan and Nebraska are the front-runners to represent the Legends division in the Big Ten Championship while it would take a monumental collapse from Wisconsin for the Badgers to miss out on a ticket to Indianapolis. Meanwhile, possibly the two best teams in the conference, Ohio State and Penn State; can't play in the postseason but matchup this week in the "Ineligibowl". ASA has the inside look at all the matchups inside...

Nebraska (-2.5) vs. Michigan - 8:00 PM EST - ESPN2
UN: Last week at Northwestern: W 29-28
UM: Last week vs. Michigan State: W 12-10

The winner of this game gets a head up on the Legends Division race. If the Wolverines win, they will be tough to catch as they would remain undefeated. Michigan's defense has been the best in the Big Ten in conference play. The Wolverines have allowed just 23 points through three games and have allowed opposing offenses to pass for just 126 yards per game (just 4.4 yards per attempt) with two touchdowns and four interceptions. They've also allowed Big Ten opponents to rush for just 91 yards per game on a 2.9 YPC average with no touchdowns through three games. Purdue, Michigan State, and Illinois haven't exactly been lighting it up on offense, but those are still impressive numbers. They'll try to carry that success over on the road against the league's top offense. Offensively Michigan was held out of the endzone last week against MSU, but four field goals was enough to top their rival. The Wolves still have one of the top weapons in the country in Denard Robinson and Nebraska has had its difficulties dealing with dual-threat quarterbacks. After an emotion-charged, physical game against its rival, Michigan will have to reload in a hurry for this week's showdown with Nebraska on the road.

Nothing has come easy for the Huskers on the road, but they buckled down in the clutch and got two touchdowns with under 6:00 remaining to get the win over Northwestern last week. Looking at the stats, it's a wonder how the Huskers didn't win in a blowout. Nebraska had 201 rush yards, a +242 yard advantage, and +12 first downs. The defense really stepped up as the Huskers allowed a respectful 180 rush yards (4.7 YPC) to one of the top rushing offenses in the country. They also held Northwestern QB's to complete just 16-of-37 passes for 121 yards. That was a promising performance against a spread team after allowing 63 points to Ohio State in Nebraska's last game. Next the Huskers will deal with a much more potent offense, but they'll be at home where they are 4-0 this season.

Recent history: Nebraska isn't lacking for motivation here after losing at Michigan by 28 points last season in their first matchup as conference foes. Nebraska turned the ball over three times and was held to just 260 total yards.

Trends: Michigan is just 9-25 ATS in its last 34 conference games and 3-9-1 ATS in its last 13 road games. Nebraska is 4-1 ATS in its last 5 home games, but just 1-5-1 ATS in its last 7 conference games. The Huskers are also just 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games following a SU win.

Injury report: Michigan CB Ramon Taylor is still listed as the starter on the depth chart after suffering an undisclosed injury last week. Nebraska RB Rex Burkhead is day-to-day after aggravating his left knee injury for the second time in three weeks Saturday at Northwestern.

Penn State (PK) vs. Ohio State 5:30 PM EST - ESPN
PSU: Last week at Iowa: W 38-14
OSU: Last week vs. Purdue: W 29-22 (OT)

This game has been dubbed as "The Ineligi-Bowl" as both squads are banned from postseason play this year. Both teams come in undefeated in league play so this is for the Leaders division lead. Still, without an impact on postseason implication, this game still means a lot to both sides that are playing well. Penn State is playing as well as anyone in the Big Ten and just got done destroying Iowa on the road, a place PSU hadn't won at since 1999. The Nittany Lions have now reeled off five straight wins (5-0 ATS) and have won each game by an average of 20.2 points per game (none by less than 11 points). QB McGloin continued his ascension with 289 yards and two touchdowns last week and he now has 14 TD's and just two INT's this season. RB Belton added 103 rush yards and three scores last week and coach Bill O'Brien's offense gets better every week. Defensively PSU held Iowa to just 20 rush yards on 23 carries and 209 total yards. PSU now ranks 22nd in total defense and 13th in scoring defense. Beaver Stadium will be rocking on Saturday afternoon when OSU comes to town.

This will be the toughest test to date for the undefeated Buckeyes, who barely escaped with a home win over Purdue last weekend. Backup QB Kenny Guiton led the Buckeyes to a game-tying touchdown with three seconds remaining to send the game into overtime - where they won. Guiton may get the start as Braxton Miller remains questionable for this weekend's game (see more below). The Buckeyes haven't been good defensively this season. OSU ranks 68th in total defense, 109th against the pass, and 51st in scoring defense. The Bucks are allowing 31.3 points per game in conference play and they'll face another difficult test against PSU's new & improved offense.

Recent history: It's been a pretty even series history. Ohio State is 4-3 SU & ATS over the previous seven. They've also won back-to-back games at State College by 20 & 17 points, respectively. PSU won this meeting at OSU last season, 20-14. That was the score at halftime and PSU's defense (held OSU to just 139 2nd half yards) and running game (239 rush yards on 6.1 YPC) led the way for the PSU victory.

Trends: OSU is 26-10-1 ATS in its last 37 road games. But the Bucks are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven games overall. PSU is on a 6-0 ATS run. The Nittany Lions are also 4-1-1 ATS in their last 6 conference games. In head-to-head trends, the road team is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 meetings and the score has remained 'under' in six of the last eight meetings.

Injury report: Braxton Miller is participating in practice, but head coach Urban Meyer hasn't stated if Miller will play or not this Saturday. PSU LB Joshua Perry and WR Corey Brown both are expected to be fine for the Penn State game after getting nicked up against Purdue.

Wisconsin (-6.5) vs. Michigan State - 3:30 PM EST
UW: Last week vs. Minnesota: W 38-13
MSU: Last week at Michigan: L 10-12

This was supposed to be one of the marquee matchups in the Big Ten this season. But Wisconsin dropped two of its first five games and MSU already has four losses, taking away some of the luster from this budding rivalry. Still, there's no love lost from these two after two meetings last season (more in "recent history" below) and motivation will be high for both squads. The Badgers have gotten back to the ground-n-pound attack over the last few weeks. RB's Montee Ball and James White have paved the way for a three-game winning streak. Ball has 529 yards (7.3 YPC) and seven scores while White has 341 yards (9.2 YPC) and four scores. This offense will face its biggest test, however, when Michigan State's 12th ranked rush defense comes to town Saturday. The defense stepped up again last week and held Minnesota to just 245 total yards as the Badgers retained Paul Bunyan's Axe for the ninth straight year. This underrated defensive unit now ranks 19th in total defense and 21st in points allowed.

MSU has now dropped two straight games and four of its last six overall. Offensively the Spartans are a mess, and things haven't been improving (just 16.5 PPG over the last six games). The running attack appeared to be its strong suit early in the season, but Le'Veon Bell appears to be wearing down under the heavy workload. Over the last four games, he's carried it 91 times for just 3.4 YPC with three scores. QB Maxwell also continues to struggle as he's completing just 55% of his passes with seven touchdowns and five interceptions this season. The defense played well again last week against Michigan, but to no avail. This unit is 5th in total defense and 11th in points allowed. MSU will have to avoid a hangover from last week's loss to rival Michigan and get prepared for another road test here at Camp Randall Stadium.

Recent history: Michigan State has been a thorn in the Badgers side. Wisconsin is 17-4 in its last 21 Big Ten games; two of those four losses are against MSU. However, Wisconsin got some revenge in the inaugural Big Ten title game last season with a 42-39 victory over Sparty. Montee Ball had 283 rushing & receiving yards with six total touchdowns in two games against MSU last year. MSU has covered three straight vs. the Badgers.

Trends: MSU is 6-1 ATS in its last seven road games. The Spartans are just 1-5 ATS in their last six games overall. Wisconsin has covered four straight games and the Badgers are 13-4-1 ATS in their last 18 home games. The total has finished 'over' in the last six meetings between MSU-Wisconsin in Madison.

Injury report: Badgers coach Bret Bielema said he's unsure if LT Ricky Wagner will be available for this week's game against Michigan State. Wagner injured his right knee two weeks ago against Purdue.

Northwestern (-6) vs. Iowa - 12:00 PM EST - ESPN2
NU: Last week vs. Nebraska: L 28-29
UI: Last week vs. Penn State: L 14-38

Both teams suffered home losses last week and both teams' chances of winning the Legends division just got that much smaller. For Northwestern, it was the second time in three weeks the Wildcats held a double-digit lead in the fourth quarter of a game it lost. NW watched a 12-point lead evaporate against Nebraska. Defensively the Wildcats allowed Nebraska QB Martinez to complete 27-of-39 passes for 342 yards and three scores while the Huskers also rushed for 201 yards (543 total yards allowed). QB Kain Colter barely played last week after being the focal point of the offense during the first half of the season. Colter and Siemian combined to complete just 16-of-37 for 121 yards. NW looks for a bounce-back performance here against the Hawkeyes.

After a big road win at Michigan State, Iowa returned home to a packed Kinnick Stadium for its lone night game of the year and the Hawks laid an egg. Iowa never really challenged PSU, as the Nittany Lions built a 24-0 halftime lead. The Hawks didn't score until a kickoff return for touchdown in the 4th quarter. QB James Vandenberg and the Hawkeyes' offense struggled again. Through seven games, Vandenberg has just three touchdown passes (had 25 in 2011). A couple of notable injuries in the Northwestern secondary should help Vandenberg bounce back this weekend. This unit now ranks 107th in total offense and 103rd in scoring offense. The defense couldn't stop Penn State as the Nittany Lions racked up over 500 yards of total offense and 28 first downs. With how mediocre the Hawkeyes have been this season, with a win over Northwestern, they can manage to linger in the Legends division race with a favorable schedule.

Recent history: Northwestern in 5-2 SU & ATS in the last seven meetings; however, the Hawkeyes won & covered in Iowa City last season, ending a three-year losing streak. Siemian and Colter each passed for a touchdown in a losing effort while Iowa QB Vandenberg led the way for the Hawkeyes with 224 passing yards and two scores.

Trends: Iowa is 36-15-1 ATS in its last 52 games following a loss. The Hawks are just 2-9 ATS in their last 11 road games. Northwestern has covered five straight home games and it is 7-1 ATS in its last eight games overall. The underdog is 6-1 ATS in the last seven meetings between these two and the score has remained 'under' the total in six of the last seven.

Injury report: Iowa starting LT Brandon Scherff will miss several months after undergoing surgery to repair a leg injury suffered in Saturday night's loss to Penn State. Northwestern's secondary could be very thin this week. CB's Nick VanHoose and Quinn Evans are doubtful. VanHoose is the team's top cover man. The good news is that top RB Venric Mark is expected to play Saturday.

Minnesota (+3.5) vs. Purdue - 3:30 PM EST - Big Ten Network
UM: Last week at Wisconsin: L 13-38
PU: Last week at Ohio State: L 22-29

Purdue has dropped three straight games against some formidable Big Ten opponents: Michigan, Wisconsin, and Ohio State. The Boilers still need to win three of their last five games to become bowl eligible and they have a pretty favorable schedule the rest of the way. This week against Minnesota they'll have to shake off the stink of last week's loss to Ohio State. Despite a blocked extra point and a blocked field goal - Purdue held a lead the entire 4th quarter before Ohio State scored the tying touchdown with just three seconds remaining (OSU won it in overtime). It was a strong performance on both sides of the ball from Purdue and just a devastating way to lose a game like that on the road. One of these two is going to break a three-game losing streak. The other falls to 0-4 in league play.

Minnesota Head coach Jerry Kill has committed to true freshman QB Philip Nelson as his quarterback, with oft-injured MarQueis Gray going to receiver. Nelson made his collegiate debut in his start at Wisconsin last week. He had mixed results, throwing for two touchdowns and two interceptions. The Gophers are looking for a scoring spark as Minnesota has scored exactly 13 points in three straight conference losses. They haven't scored over 17 points since mid-September when Gray got hurt. Defensively the Gophers rank 6th against the pass - mostly because opponents have so much success running against them (83rd against the run) that they don't have to pass. Last week Wisconsin ran for 337 yards on 6.1 YPC average.

Recent history: Purdue has won and covered two straight in the series and they are 7-3 SU & ATS dating back to 2000. Last year the Boilers took a 24-0 lead after the first quarter and took a 31-3 lead into halftime. Minnesota managed just 213 total yards and 11 first downs. The favorite is 10-1-1 ATS in the last 12 meetings between these two and the total has finished 'over' in the last four meetings in Minnesota.

Trends: Purdue is 6-2-1 ATS in its last nine games following a loss. Minnesota is 6-1 ATS in its last seven home games and 7-3 ATS in its last 10 games following a SU loss of more than 20 points.

Injury report: Minnesota WR Gray, whose knee/ankle issues prevent him from being full strength at quarterback, will work at wide receiver for the foreseeable future.

Illinois (-2) vs. Indiana - 12:00 PM EST - Big Ten Network
Ill: Last week - BYE
Ind: Last week at Navy: L 30-31

Both teams have combined to lose nine straight games. But the good news is that one of these two HAS to win this weekend. The Illini haven't been close to a victory over an FBS opponent since the opener. But they've had two weeks to prepare for this one after losing 0-45 to Michigan two weeks ago. Offensively the Illini have nothing going for them. They've scored 21 total points in three Big Ten games, rank 115th in total offense, and have more turnovers than touchdowns this season. The defense hasn't been terrible, but even an elite unit couldn't make up for the offensive deficiencies that this team has.

Sooner or later, Indiana has to pull one of these games out. They've lost five straight games by an average of 5 PPG. Four of the five games have been decided by four points or less including last week's one-point loss to Navy. Indiana held a lead almost the entire game before Navy scored the go-ahead touchdown with 2:05 remaining in the fourth quarter. The Hoosiers tallied 417 yards and 26 first downs, but two interceptions (one returned for touchdown) and the inability to stop the run doomed them in the end. Navy tallied 257 rush yards.

Recent history: Illinois has won and covered four of the last five in the series. The four wins were by an average 26.5 points per game (none by fewer than 13 points). Last year Indiana took a 10-0 lead, but was outscored 41-10 after that in the 21-point loss.

Trends: Indiana is 3-1-1 ATS in its last five games following a loss. Illinois is 0-4 ATS in its last four conference games. The favorite is 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings between these two and the home team is 7-3 ATS in the last 10 meetings.

[StarDust Bum]

ACC Report - Week 9

October 24, 2012

It was another good week in the ACC, as I was fortunate enough to select two winners. I was in attendance at the thrilling UNC-Duke game last Saturday, and Duke was in command for most of the game. However, UNC made a feverish comeback, and actually took the lead briefly. Down 30-26, the Blue Devils ended up winning with a fourth-down play in the final minute in the red zone, sending the unusually large and boisterous crowd at Wallace Wade Stadium into a frenzy.

It could have been an even better weekend had I pulled the trigger on Georgia Tech (-14) at home against Boston College, but I didn't like the Yellow Jackets based upon their overall record, and inability to beat Middle Tennessee at home earlier in the year. I also cooled on Clemson (-8) late in the week, tricked into believing Virginia Tech couldn't possibly be the mediocre team that they have become. However, I am not greedy, I'll take my two victories, and feel very happy with an overall 5-1 mark for the previous week. Let's pick some more winners this weekend! Good luck to all.

Joe Williams's ACC Season Picks:
Period: 8/31/2012 to 10/20/2012
Pick Type: All Picks
Record: 17-7-0 ( 70.8% , +920)

PICK DETAILS
Week Record Total
Week 8 (Oct. 18-20) 2-0 Won (+ 200)
Week 7 (Oct. 11-13) 0-0 - (+/-0)
Week 6 (Oct. 4-6) 2-1 Won (+90)
Week 5 (Sept. 27-29) 3-1 Won (+190)
Week 4 (Sept. 19-22) 3-1 Won (+190)
Week 3 (Sept. 13-15) 3-2 Won (+80)
Week 2 (Sept. 6-8) 2-1 Won (+90)
Week 1 (Aug. 31-Sept. 3) 2-1 Won (+80)

Saturday - North Carolina State at North Carolina (GamePlan/ESPN3, 12:30 p.m. ET)
Matchup Five-Star Game

This will be a very interesting game to watch, as there are so many different storylines. The Tar Heels were stunned in Durham last weekend by their normally doormat-like rivals, the Duke Blue Devils. Now, they come home to face their bigger gridiron rival, and Triangle neighbor, the N.C. State Wolfpack. Last season, the Pack beat the Heels 13-0 for their fifth consecutive victory in the series. In most of those games, the Wolfpack have been the underdog, and that is no different this season. N.C. State is a very attractive 7.5-point underdog in this one. While the Tar Heels are 6-0 ATS over their past six home games, the underdog is 12-2 ATS in the past 14 meetings, and N.C. State is 5-0 ATS in the past five meetings between these bitter rivals. Keep in mind, North Carolina is also just 2-5 ATS in their past seven games against teams with a winning record, while the Pack is 5-2-1 ATS in similar situations.

Thursday - Clemson at Wake Forest (ESPN, 7:30 p.m. ET)
Matchup Four-Star Game

The ACC will get a handful of Thursday games, and this week's battle will be a good one despite a deceptive 13.5-point spread. The Clemson Tigers look to remain on a roll as they head into Winston-Salem. Clemson is 5-0 ATS in its past five ACC battles, and 4-0 ATS in their past four overall, including a drumming of Virginia Tech last weekend in Death Valley. On the flip side, Wake is 5-2 ATS in its past seven conference games, including an outright win at Virginia last weekend. However, the Deacs are just 4-9 ATS in their past 13 games against a team with a winning record. One note to really remember is that the home team is 5-2 ATS in the past seven meetings, and Clemson is just 1-4-1 ATS in its past six visits to Wake. In looking at the total, the under is 6-1 in Clemson's past seven games on fieldturf, and the under is 10-3 in Clemson's past 13 road contests and 7-2 in the past nine Thursday games. For Wake, the under is 8-3 in their past 11 games overall, and 5-2 in their past seven ACC battles. In this series, the under has cashed in four straight meetings.

Saturday - Duke at Florida State (ESPNU, 3:30 p.m. ET)
Matchup Three-Star Game

The Duke Blue Devils lead the Coastal Division, and this game could potentially be an ACC Championship Game preview, as strange as that sounds. In fact, Duke is the only team in the Coastal Division more than two games over .500, sitting at an impressive and bowl eligible 6-2. However, they have been a tremendously different football team on the road than they are at home. They are 5-0 at home, and 1-2 on the road, outscored in their three trips away from Durham by a combined score of 117-68. However, Duke is 5-1 ATS in their past six games overall, and 12-3-1 in their past 16 games in the month of October. Florida State is just 2-5 ATS in their past seven ACC games, 2-6 ATS in their past eight home games against a team with a winning record, and 1-4 ATS in their past five games overall. Still, this is a dangerous spot for Duke, who needs to prove they can hang with the big boys. The road team is 7-1 ATS in the past eight meetings, but Duke is 0-4 ATS in the past four meetings, and the favorite is 4-0 ATS during that span.

Saturday - Brigham Young at Georgia Tech (GamePlan/ESPN3, 3:00 p.m. ET)
Matchup Two-Star Game

This will be an interesting game to watch despite the overall records of the teams. Brigham Young comes in with one of the better defenses in the nation, while the Yellow Jackets are one of the most prolific rushing offenses in the game. BYU is 6-1 ATS in their past seven road games, and 11-4 ATS in their past 15 games overall. Interestingly, though, BYU is 0-4 ATS in their past four games against ACC opponents. Meanwhile, the Jackets are 7-1-1 ATS in their past nine games against Independents. The line trends might be a bit confusing, although at first glance BYU might be a good moneyline play mainly because they have been a better team overall this season. However, the total looks to be more in agreement with an under play. The under is 5-1 in BYU's past six games on grass, 4-1 in their past five overall, and the under is 5-2 in BYU's past seven against ACC opponents. For Georgia Tech, the under is 27-10-2 in their past 39 October games, and 3-0-1 in their past four games against Independents.

Saturday - Maryland at Boston College (ESPN3, 1:00 p.m. ET)
Matchup One-Star Game

Looking at the overall records, Maryland seems like a slam-dunk play getting a point from a 1-6 Boston College club. However, keep in mind that the Terps lost QB Perry Hills (knee) to a torn ACL last week, meaning the club will either hand the reins to true freshman Caleb Rowe or Devin Burns, a redshirt sophomore who orchestrated three straight scoring drives once Hills went down last week. Maryland is 4-1 ATS in their past five games against a team with a losing record, but they are just 5-13 ATS in their past 18 games overall. B.C. is 0-4 ATS in their past four conference games and 0-5 ATS in their past five overall. In the past five meetings, the underdog is 4-1 ATS. The under might be the better play, especially considering Maryland's uncertainty at the QB position. The under is 5-2 in Maryland's past seven ACC games, while the under is 19-6-1 in B.C.'s past 26 games overall. The under is also 10-4 in Boston College's past 14 home games.

[StarDust Bum]

Florida vs. Georgia

October 26, 2012


The World’s Largest Outdoor Cocktail Party has gone the way of the Gators in recent years. In fact, Florida (7-0 straight up, 6-1 against the spread) has won 18 of the last 22 head-to-head meetings against Georgia, which hasn’t won back-to-back games in this rivalry since the 1980s.

As of late Friday afternoon, most betting shops had Will Muschamp’s team installed as a 6 ½-point favorite with the total in the 46-47 range. Gamblers can take the Bulldogs to win outright for a lucrative plus-230 return (risk $100 to win $230).

UF stayed undefeated by spanking South Carolina by a 44-11 count as a 3 ½-point home favorite last Saturday. The Gators were actually out-gained 191-183 in total offense, but they cruised to the blowout victory thanks to a 4-0 advantage in turnover margin.

Jeff Driskel threw four touchdown passes, including a pair of scoring strikes to junior tight end Jordan Reed. For the season, Driskel is completing 66.9 percent of his throws with an 8/1 touchdown-to-interception ratio.

Driskel is also a threat with his legs, as evidenced by 321 rushing yards and four touchdowns. Senior running back Mike Gillislee has been keyed on by opposing defenses recently, resulting in just 104 rushing yards and zero TDs in the last two games.

Nevertheless, Gillislee is still fifth in the SEC in rushing with 652 yards and seven TDs. He averages 4.7 yards per carry.

Florida doesn’t blow any opponent away with offensive firepower, but it has established a recipe for success bases on defense, special teams and taking care of the football. Speaking of special teams, the Gators might have both the best place-kicker and punter in the nation.

Kyle Christy had a huge impact on the win over the Gamecocks, flipping the field several times while averaging 54.3 yards per on seven punts. Caleb Sturgis, who has been injured and unable to play in two straight games against UGA, has excellent range and will probably be booting field goals on Sundays next year.

Georgia (6-1 SU, 2-5 ATS) went into 2012 as the SEC East favorite based mainly on the fact that it had an easier schedule compared to its division rivals. This is the second straight season that Alabama, LSU and Arkansas have been absent from the Dawgs’ slate.

Even though it has won six of seven games, Mark Richt’s squad has not picked up any style points along the way. Last week may have been the best example.

Kentucky was without its two best QBs, two best RBs and nearly its entire secondary when UGA came to Lexington. But the Wildcats were in the game for 60 minutes before coming up on the short end of a 29-24 decision. UK took the cash as a 25 ½-point underdog.

Most of the criticism in Athens has come toward a stop unit that’s stacked with NFL talents like Jarvis Jones, Alec Ogletree, Bacarri Rambo and Shawn Williams. However, the defense has struggled mightily against the run, giving up 167.9 yards per game.

Rambo and Ogletree’s four-game suspensions didn’t help, nor did two-game suspensions for another pair of starters in cornerback Sanders Commings and LB Chase Vasser. Jones didn’t play last week at UK due to a sprained ankle, but he’s set to return to the lineup in Jacksonville.

Aaron Murray is a solid signal caller for UGA, but he’s had a propensity for not playing his best in the biggest games. For instance, he was awful in a 35-7 loss at South Carolina earlier this month, and the junior kept Tennessee in the game in a non-covering 51-44 home win by gift-wrapping the Vols with a pair of first-half TDs (one pick-six and a fumble on UGA’s nine).

I don’t mean to portray a picture of all gloom and doom for UGA, though. After all, a win over Florida will put the Bulldogs in control of their own destiny in terms of winning the East and returning to the Ga. Dome for the SEC Championship Game. Furthermore, none of Georgia’s goals are off the table as it could conceivably still win the national title.

With that said, there’s no hiding this team from the ‘underachiever label’ to date.

One positive for the Dawgs has been the emergence of a pair of freshman RBs in Keith Marshall and Todd Gurley, who have combined to rush for 1,110 yards and 14 TDs. Gurley has nine rushing scores and is averaging 6.7 YPC. Marshall has five TD runs and a 7.0 YPC average.

Murray has completed 65.2 percent of his passes for 1,906 yards with a 16/4 TD-INT ratio. One of his favorite targets, WR Michael Bennett, suffered a torn ACL in early October and is done for the season. Taverres King has a team-high 26 receptions for 511 yards and five TDs.

When these teams met last year, UGA captured a 24-20 win as a 3 ½-point favorite. Murray threw a pair of TD passes on fourth-down plays.

The ‘over’ is hitting at a 5-2 overall clip for UGA, while the ‘under’ has gone 4-3 overall for UF. The ‘over’ is 4-1 in the last five UF-UGA games.

CBS will provide television coverage at 3:30 p.m. Eastern.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

--Auburn owns a 5-1 spread record in six games as a home underdog during Gene Chizik’s four-year tenure. The Tigers, who are 15-point home ‘dogs Saturday vs. Texas A&M, have won three of those games outright.

--Vanderbilt is favored by 33 Saturday at home vs. Massachusetts. Many sharp bettors like to fade (go against) teams when they are in unfamiliar roles. Obviously, we don’t see the Commodores as extremely healthy favorites very often. However, we should note that in three double-digit ‘chalk’ spots on James Franklin’s watch, Vandy has gone 3-0 ATS.

--Florida has won 18 of the last 22 head-to-head meetings against Georgia dating back to 1990. The Gators are 3-1 ATS in the last four encounters. For what it’s worth (nothing?), UF head coach Will Muschamp is winless in five Florida-Georgia games. He was winless as a player at UGA in four tries and his first UF squad lost a 24-20 decision in Jacksonville last year.

--Northwestern is a six-point home favorite vs. Iowa. Although the Wildcats are 2-0 ATS as home favorites this season, they are 6-13 ATS in 19 games as home ‘chalk’ during Pat Fitzgerald’s seven-year tenure.

--Duke has never beaten Florida St, going 0-17 with an average score of 50-16. No game has been closer than 19 points. The Seminoles are favored by 27 ½ at home against the Blue Devils.

--ULM owns a 6-1 spread record after rallying for a 43-42 overtime win last week at Western Kentucky. For the second time this season, the Warhawks rallied from a 28-7 deficit to win a road game in overtime. They take on South Alabama this weekend as 23-point home favorites.

--Notre Dame is 3-1 ATS as a road underdog during Brian Kelly’s three-year stay at the helm. The unbeaten Irish is an 11-point underdog at Oklahoma.

--Virginia still hasn’t covered the spread all season, going 0-7-1 ATS. Unfortunately, gamblers can’t fade the Cavs this weekend because they have an open date.

[StarDust Bum]

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

10/26/12 3-*1-*0 75.00% +*950 Detail
10/25/12 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1000 Detail
10/23/12 1-*1-*0 50.00% -*50 Detail
10/20/12 38-*34-*0 52.78% +*300 Detail
10/19/12 0-*2-*0 0.00% -*1100 Detail
10/18/12 3-*1-*0 75.00% +*950 Detail
10/16/12 0-*2-*0 0.00% -*1100 Detail
10/13/12 28-*23-*2 54.90% +*1350 Detail
10/12/12 2-*0-*0 100.00% +*1000 Detail
10/11/12 3-*3-*0 50.00% -*150 Detail
10/06/12 53-*44-*1 54.64% +*2300 Detail
10/05/12 2-*2-*0 50.00% -*100 Detail
10/04/12 1-*5-*0 16.67% -*2250 Detail

Totals 136-*118-*3 53.54% +3100



Saturday, October 27

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Iowa - 12:00 PM ET Iowa +5 500
Northwestern -

Kentucky - 12:00 PM ET Kentucky +14 500
Missouri -

Temple - 12:00 PM ET Pittsburgh -6.5 500
Pittsburgh -

Ball State - 12:00 PM ET Army +3.5 500
Army -

Indiana - 12:00 PM ET Indiana +2 500
Illinois -

Texas - 12:00 PM ET Kansas +18.5 500
Kansas -

Tennessee - 12:00 PM ET South Carolina -13.5 500
South Carolina -

Northern Illinois - 12:00 PM ET Western Michigan +7.5 500
Western Michigan -

Mississippi - 12:21 PM ET Arkansas -6 500
Arkansas -

North Carolina State - 12:30 PM ET North Carolina State +7 500
North Carolina - Over 54.5 500

Maryland - 1:00 PM ET Maryland +2.5 500
Boston College -

Southern Mississippi - 1:00 PM ET Rice -3 500
Rice -

Utah State - 2:00 PM ET Utah State -23.5 500
Texas-San Antonio -

UCLA - 3:00 PM ET UCLA +6.5 500
Arizona State -

Brigham Young - 3:00 PM ET Brigham Young +2 500
Georgia Tech -

Colorado - 3:00 PM ET Oregon -47 500
Oregon - Over 67.5 500

Memphis - 3:00 PM ET Memphis +21.5 500
Southern Methodist -

Southern California - 3:30 PM ET Arizona +5.5 500
Arizona - Over 66 500

Duke - 3:30 PM ET Florida State -27.5 500
Florida State -

Purdue - 3:30 PM ET Minnesota +2.5 500
Minnesota - Over 50 500

Navy - 3:30 PM ET East Carolina -3.5 500
East Carolina - Over 48 500

Fresno State - 3:30 PM ET Fresno State -14.5 500
New Mexico -

Texas Christian - 3:30 PM ET Oklahoma State -6.5 500
Oklahoma State -

Texas Tech - 3:30 PM ET Texas Tech +7.5 500
Kansas State -

North Texas - 3:30 PM ET North Texas +3 500
Middle Tennessee -

Alabama-Birmingham - 3:30 PM ET Tulane +4.5 500
Tulane - Over 59.5 500

Boise State - 3:30 PM ET Boise State -16 500
Wyoming -

Florida - 3:30 PM ET Georgia +7 500
Georgia -

Kent State - 3:30 PM ET Rutgers -13.5 500
Rutgers -

Eastern Michigan - 3:30 PM ET Eastern Michigan +14.5 500
Bowling Green -

Ohio - 3:30 PM ET Ohio -6.5 500
Miami (Ohio) -

Michigan State - 3:30 PM ET Wisconsin -5.5 500
Wisconsin -

Toledo - 3:30 PM ET Buffalo +7.5 500
Buffalo -

Akron - 3:30 PM ET Akron +7.5 500
Central Michigan -

Texas State - 4:00 PM ET San Jose State -20.5 500
San Jose State -

Texas El Paso - 4:30 PM ET Texas El Paso +14 500
Houston -

Troy - 5:00 PM ET Troy -7 500
Florida Atlantic -

Ohio State - 5:30 PM ET Penn State +1 500
Penn State -

Western Kentucky - 6:00 PM ET Western Kentucky -6.5 500
Florida International - Over 52.5 500

Washington State - 6:15 PM ET Stanford -25.5 500
Stanford - Over 51 500

[StarDust Bum]

Evening CFL Best Bets:


Texas A&M - 7:00 PM ET Texas A&M -14 500
Auburn -

Hawaii - 7:00 PM ET Colorado State -6 500
Colorado State - Over 52 500

Syracuse - 7:00 PM ET Syracuse +3 500
South Florida -

Baylor - 7:00 PM ET Iowa State -2.5 500
Iowa State - Over 70.5 500

Massachusetts - 7:00 PM ET Massachusetts +33 500
Vanderbilt - Over 49 500

South Alabama - 7:00 PM ET UL Monroe -22 500
UL Monroe -

UNLV - 8:00 PM ET UNLV +17.5 500
San Diego State - Over 57.5 500

Michigan - 8:00 PM ET Nebraska -1 500
Nebraska - Under 58.5 500

Notre Dame - 8:00 PM ET Notre Dame +12.5 500
Oklahoma - Under 47.5 500

Central Florida - 8:00 PM ET Marshall +2.5 500
Marshall - Over 67.5 500

Louisiana Tech - 8:00 PM ET Louisiana Tech -29.5 500
New Mexico State - Under 77.5 500

Mississippi State - 8:30 PM ET Mississippi State +22 500
Alabama - Under 46 500

California - 9:45 PM ET Utah -2 500
Utah -

Oregon State - 10:15 PM ET Washington +3 500
Washington - Over 48 500