The Bum's October's College Football Best Bets !

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NCAAF

Friday, October 5

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What bettors need to know: Pittsburgh at Syracuse
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Pittsburgh at Syracuse (+1.5, O/U 58.5)

Open dates can have opposite effects: They can provide a break for a struggling or banged-up team, or they can slow momentum. Pittsburgh hopes the latter isn’t the case - and if history is any indication, it shouldn’t be - Friday when the Panthers head to Syracuse seeking an eighth straight victory over the Orange. The Panthers, led by first-year coach Paul Chryst, are on a roll, having set a school record with 1,163 yards in two wins leading up to their break. Syracuse, meanwhile, is a team that needed a week off to straighten out some issues after its worst performance of the season. In the most recent meeting, Pittsburgh forced six turnovers in a 33-20 win over the Orange at Heinz Field last season. This will likely be the final Big East meeting for the schools, who are both headed to the ACC in 2013.

TV: 7 p.m. ET, ESPN. LINE: Syracuse -1.5, O/U 58.5. This line saw some big movement due to sharp action from where it opened at Pitt -3. The total has also moved from where it opened at 56. Bettors clearly aren't convinced by the fact Pitt is coming off a pair of convincing wins while Cuse is just 1-8 against the spread in its last nine games going back to last season.

ABOUT PITTSBURGH (2-2, 0-1 Big East): The Panthers, who raised some eyebrows with a convincing upset over then-No. 13 Virginia Tech two weeks ago, are ranked 29th in total offense (486.8 yards per game). Senior quarterback Tino Sunseri (1,144 yards, eight touchdowns, two interceptions) passed for 344 yards and two touchdowns and the Panthers rolled up 626 yards in a 55-10 rout of FCS foe Gardner-Webb prior to their week off. Sunseri shares a backfield with talented senior running back Ray Graham (90.5 yards per game) and also throws to two of the best receivers in the conference in Mike Shanahan (21 catches, 368 yards, three touchdowns) and Devin Street (18 catches, 273 yards, two touchdowns). Defensively, the Panthers are ranked 27th in the nation (324.0 yards per game), but are allowing opponents to convert more than 47 percent of third downs (99th out of 120 teams).

ABOUT SYRACUSE (1-3, 0-0): The Orange stumbled into its week off after committing four turnovers in a 17-10 loss to Minnesota - their eight loss in nine games. Syracuse’s normally potent offense was held to 350 yards, more than 100 below its season average. Senior Ryan Nassib, who is sixth in the nation in passing (341.8 yards per game), threw for 228 yards with a touchdown and an interception. Syracuse's struggles have stemmed from the fact that it has been careless with the ball, turning it over 10 times in four games. The Orange is also one of the most penalized teams in the nation (8.75 per game -114th).

TOP BETTING TRENDS:

Panthers are 8-1-1 ATS vs. a team with a losing record
Orange are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 games overall
Under is 4-0 in Panthers last 4 road games
Under is 8-1 in Orange last 9 games following a bye week

EXTRA POINTS

1. Sunseri has averaged 16.9 yards per completion over the last two games with a 69.5 completion percentage (37-of-54) in that span.
2. Syracuse has lost eight straight to FBS opponents. The Orange’s last win came against West Virginia last October.
3. Pittsburgh leads the all-time series, which began in 1916, 34-30-3.


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[StarDust Bum]

Friday, October 5

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Pittsburgh - 7:00 PM ET Syracuse -2 500
Syracuse - Over 59.5 500

Utah State - 10:15 PM ET Utah State +7 500
Brigham Young - Under 45 500

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Hurricanes & Fighting Irish Tee It Up In Chicago

There was a time when the college football world stopped whenever Miami-Florida (4-1) and Notre Dame (4-0, No. 11 Don Best Linemakers Poll) got together. Although the series has been on hiatus for almost two decades, emotions can still run high whenever the Hurricanes and Fighting Irish step on to the field.

But after facing off just once – at the Sun Bowl two years ago, when Notre Dame beat Miami 33-17 – since 1990, the regular-season portion of this series resumes on Saturday at the not-so-neutral venue of Chicago’s Soldier Field, in the Fighting Irish’s backyard.

A quick check of the Don Best college football odds screen notes the Irish as solid 14-point favorites at the majority of Las Vegas sports books, with the ‘total’ hovering between 53½ and 54. Kickoff time on Saturday will be 7:30 p.m. (ET) with NBC providing the national TV coverage. As usual, the ever-versatile Tom Hammonds will make the short trip from his Kentucky home to provide the play-by-play.

The boiling point of the Miami-Notre Dame rivalry came in the 1980s, but in fact the Hurricanes and Irish have been rolling around on the gridiron for a lot longer. The series dates to the 1950s before becoming a fixture on the schedule of both schools between 1971-90. The Domers hold a 16-7-1 all-time edge in the series.

That “one” on the tie side was a memorable game in one of the earlier encounters at the end of the 1965 season, the second year for both Miami’s Charlie Tate and Notre Dame's Ara Parseghian and only the third all-time meeting between the schools. The teams engaged in a defensive war for the ages at the old Orange Bowl, with the 'Canes unable to move their offense behind star RB Pete Banaszak, and the Irish limited on attack because QB Bill Zloch couldn’t hit the broad side of a barn with his passes. The final score was 0-0.

Notre Dame brought a 7-2 side and a jazzed-up “O” featuring QB Terry Hanratty into the Orange Bowl two years later for the regular-season finale which, like in 1965, was also a de facto bowl game for the Irish, who in those years (in fact for 44 years) didn’t accept bowl invitations. The ‘67 affair was more lively than the game two years earlier, and was played in front of a record Orange Bowl crowd, which rocked the big stadium when the hometown Hurricanes forged a 16-10 halftime lead on a pair of TDs generated by QB David Olivo.

The Irish, flustered in the first half by Miami's Ted “Mad Stork” Hendricks-led defense, finally surged ahead in the second half and were up 24-16 after Bob Gladieaux’s 10-yard TD run in the fourth quarter, but had to hang on for dear life as Miami cut the deficit to two with three minutes remaining before failing on a 2-point conversion that could have tied the game. The Irish survived, 24-22.

The series took a definite turn in Miami’s direction in the 1980s after a season-ending 37-15 romp in 1981 engineered by 'Cane QB Jim Kelly. Two years later, Miami, behind RS frosh QB Bernie Kosar, rolled to a 20-0 win at the Orange Bowl (Notre Dame’s first shutout loss since 1978) en route to an eventual national title. And in the 1985 renewal at the Orange Bowl, Jimmy Johnson’s 'Canes humiliated the Irish, 58-7, effectively ending the uneventful five-season run of Gerry Faust as Notre Dame’s head coach.

The series became especially nasty thereafter, especially the edgy 1988 renewal at South Bend in which the Irish fans tactlessly referred to as the “Catholics vs. Convicts” game. Johnson’s Miami, getting no breaks from the referees all afternoon, had pulled to within 31-30 against Lou Holtz’ Irish on a Steve Walsh-to-Andre Brown TD pass in the final minute, then decided to go for the win on a 2-point conversion. But DB Pat Terrell knocked down Walsh’s conversion pass and the Irish had ended Miami’s 36-game regular-season win streak. Notre Dame went on to win its last national title while the Hurricanes finished with only that one defeat.

To this day we believe Johnson should have kicked a one-point conversion in the last minute to force a tie and dared to set up a likely bowl-game rematch on a neutral field, in which Miami would have been favored. Instead, Notre Dame only had to beat a less-dangerous West Virginia in the Fiesta Bowl to claim the national crown.

Now, 25 years later, the circumstances are not too dissimilar from the 1988 meeting, with Notre Dame again climbing the polls under a recently-hired coach, Brian Kelly. Miami is not quite as formidable as it was in 1988, although the 'Canes seem to be stabilizing under their second-year coach, Al Golden.

For Notre Dame, it has mostly been winning with defense and star LB Manti Te’o, an early leader for the Butkus Award who has been involved in seven of the 13 forced turnovers (with three picks, two fumble recoveries and two forced fumbles) by the Irish stop unit. Notre Dame ranks third nationally in scoring defense at 8.3 ppg and 15th in total defense at 291.5 ypg while not allowing a rushing TD in four games.

Although ND has faced Michigan QB Denard Robinson and held him and the Wolverines to only six points two weeks ago at South Bend, the Irish face a different challenge in the first true gunslinger QB faced yet in 2012, Miami's Stephen Morris, fresh off a school and ACC record 566 yards passing and five TD passes in last week’s 44-37 thrill win over NC State and its decorated secondary.

Miami has also demonstrated great resilience, rallying from 17 points behind before winning in OT at Georgia Tech two weeks ago and clawing back after squandering a 16-point last week vs. NC State.

The Irish have not demonstrated nearly as much firepower as the 'Canes in the early going, with redshirt sophomore QB Everett Golson still a work in progress and having been pulled twice in favor of junior Tommy Rees, who started games the past two seasons and led the Irish to wins over Purdue and Michigan in September.

Notre Dame has been doing a decent job getting the ball into the hands of playmakers Theo Riddick (leads ND with 242 rush yards as well as 14 receptions) and George Atkinson III (7.7 ypc). But the Golson-Rees combo has tossed only three TD passes in four games, and the Irish are scoring less than 18 ppg in their last three outings.

The yielding 'Cane defense, however, looks to be an inviting target, as Miami allows 225 ypg rushing (ranked 112th nationally) and 33.4 ppg, ranking 98th nationally in that category.

Spread-wise, note that Kelly’s ND is a spotless 4-0 thus far in 2012, but Golden’s teams at Temple and Miami have been known to flourish against the number both on the road (6-2 vs. the line since last season; 22-12 since 2007) and as an underdog (19-10 with the Owls and Miami since 2007, including 4-2 with the 'Canes). The Hurricanes are also ‘over’ 4-0 this season, though the Irish are ‘over’ just once in four games.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 6

Saturday's games
Top games
Georgia Tech won seven of last nine games vs Clemson in series where dog is 11-4 vs spread, but 0-3 in last three played here; Tech is 4-3 in last seven visits to Death Valley- they scored 30+ points in three of last four meetings, but Jackets got stung last week 49-28 by Middle Tennessee of Sun Belt, allowing 264 rushing yards. In last two games, Tech allowed 91 points, 1,119 TY. Clemson allowed 80 points in last two games, road tilts at Florida State/BC, they also gave up 27 to Ball State, but Tigers have firepower, scoring 36 ppg vs Auburn-FSU-BC, running ball for 320 on the Tigers. ACC home favorites are 3-4 against spread. Clemson is 11-8 as home under Swinney; Tech is 7-4-1 as road dog under Johnson.

Penn State won nine of last 11 games vs Northwestern, winning last five, covering last four; Wildcats covered just one of last five visits to Happy Valley, but they come in 5-0 this year, having run ball for 687 yards in last two games vs I-A opponents (BC/Indiana). Penn State won last three games by combined score of 93-27, after an 0-2 start; they’re 6-14 in last 20 games as home favorite, 2-1 this year. Lions have outscored opponents 76-9 in first half of games this season. Northwestern covered 10 of last 13 tries as a road dog; they won only road game this year 42-41 (-1) at Syracuse. Big Dozen home favorites are 2-3 early in season.

Missouri is having rough first season in SEC, losing first two league games by 21 points each; they had five players involved in minor drug issue this week- they won’t play here, vs Vanderbilt squad that has been off for two weeks since getting bamboozled 48-3 at Georgia. Vandy is 0-3 vs I-A foes, scoring total of only 29 points. Mizzou has beaten Arizona State (24-20), UCF (21-16) but outgained ASU by only 22 yards and was outgained by 49 yards last week in Orlando. Tigers are 6-4 in last ten games as home favorites. Commodores are 2-7 as road underdogs since underrated Bobby Johnson quit Vandy before the ’10 season. SEC home favorites are 5-4 vs spread so far this season.

Virginia Tech won four of last five games vs North Carolina, but only one of five games was decided by more than 7 points, with dogs 4-1 vs spread; Hokies won last two visits here, 26-10 (-3), 21-17 (+3.5). Tar Heels are 6-3 in last nine tries as home favorites, 2-0 this year- they’ve played well in last 10 halves, crushing ECU/Idaho last two weeks, after being down 36-7 at half in Louisville and almost pulling that game out. In its two losses, UNC allowed 640 passing yards. Inexperienced Hokies (lost 8 starters on offense) lost both their road games so far, 35-17 at Pitt, 27-24 to Cincinnati at Redskins’ Stadium in Maryland-- this is first time since ’10 opener that they’re a regular season dog. Tech is 6-4 in last 10 tries as an underdog.

South Carolina beat Georgia last two years (17-6/45-42), after losing nine of previous 12 meetings in this rivalry; Dawgs won five of last seven visits here, with favorites 4-2-1 vs spread and average total, 24.1. Dawgs covered just one of last six games as an underdog, but they’ve been an offensive machine in ’12, scoring 48.2 ppg in 5-0 start, gaining average of 613.3 ypg in last three games. Georgia was tied at half vs Tennessee, down 1 at Mizzou, but outscored those teams 43-24 in second half. Gamecocks won last four games by 21+ points after struggling in opener at Vandy (17-13); they’re 10-6 in last 16 games as home fave (3-0 in ’12). SC plays at LSU/at Florida next two weeks, so brutal schedule for them.

Texas gave up 581 yards in wild 41-36 win in Stillwater last week, a great win for them, but now they host West Virginia squad that gained 808 yards LW against Baylor. QB Smith was 45-51/656 passing- they’ve had 338+ passing yards in all four games this year. Last week might’ve been more of an indictment of Baylor’s joke of a defense, but 45-51 is good on an empty field. I’m now considering New Mexico’s 206 rushing yards vs Texas a red flag for the Longhorns’ defense- they play Oklahoma at Texas State Fair next week; quite a 3-week stretch for them. Over last 10+ years, West Virginia is 13-5 vs spread as a road underdog, Texas is 7-11 in its last 18 games as home favorites. Also needs to be noted that Marshall passed for 413 yards vs WVU and Baylor 582, as Holgorson turns his games into Arena Football-like action.

UCLA is off to 4-1 start under Mora, with wins at Rice (49-24), Colorado (42-14), now they visit Cal’s refurbished stadium where they’ve lost last six visits, with only one of six losses by less than 8 points, but Golden Bears are struggling at 0-4 vs I-A opponents, scoring total of 26 points in last two games. Coach Tedford’s seat is getting hotter (does anyone remember how bad Cal was before he took over?) thanks to home losses vs Nevada/Arizona State; how is someone who coached Aaron Rodgers unable to land better QB recruits? UCLA had 211+ rushing yards in all four wins; Oregon State held them to 72 in their only loss. Over last 4+ years, Bruins are 4-0 as road favorites; since ’05, Cal is 1-6 as a home underdog. Pac-12 home dogs are 4-3 vs spread this season.

Michigan won seven of last nine games vs Purdue, winning three of last five visits here, with four of those five games decided by 6 or less points; favorites are 7-5 vs spread in last 12 series games. 2-2 Wolverines are completing just 54.5% of passes this year; they’ve had two weeks to work since turning ball over six times in 13-6 loss at Notre Dame- they lost other road trip this year, 41-14 to #1 Alabama in Dallas. Purdue scored 54-51 points vs stiffs last two games; they lost 20-17 game at Notre Dame, holding Irish to 52 rushing yards, but losing when better passing QB Rees came off bench late to lead winning drive. Wolverines don’t have anyone who passes like Rees. Since 2007, Michigan is just 2-8-1 vs spread as road favorites. Boilermakers are 5-3-1 as home underdogs under Hope.

Stanford won four of last five games vs Arizona, winning 37-10/42-17 last two years, when Luck was on their side; Luck is in Indy now and Cardinal has struggled on offense, scoring 20-21-13 points in three of their four games (also hammered Duke 50-13)- they’ve completed exactly 50% of passes (51-102) over last three games, which ain’t good. Arizona gave up 38-49-38 points in last three games vs I-A opponents, losing tough 38-35 home games with Oregon State last week; Wildcats are scoring 39 ppg at home, but got waxed 49-0 in their only road game, at Oregon, when they had ball in Ducks’ red zone times but never scored. Since ’08, Stanford is 15-8 as home favorites; since ’09, Arizona is 4-7-1 as road underdogs. Favorites covered last three series games overall, and four of last six played here.

Home side won last five Wake Forest-Maryland games; Deacons lost five of last six visits here, losing 62-14/26-0 in last two tries. Wake was once an automatic play as a road dog, but they’re 5-13 vs spread last 18 times they got points on road, losing 52-0 (+27) at Florida State in only road game this year. Deacons gave up 37-34 points in last two games, to Army/Duke, so their defense isn’t good- they had 362 passing yards in UNC upset, but have total of 534 in three games since. Hard to tell about Maryland yet; holding West Va to 31 points looks good, but they almost lost to Wm & Mary (7-6) and lost 24-21 at home to UConn, Edsall’s old team. Since 2004, Terrapins are 8-17 vs spread as home favorites (2-3 under Edsall). Underdogs are 4-3 vs spread in last seven series games.

Notre Dame is 5-0 and NBC is excited; Irish allowed 26 points in winning last three games vs Big Dozen teams, but this will be stiffer test, on neutral (Chicago, so cooler weather will be foreign to some Miami kids) field vs an explosive offense. Miami can score, but they have an awful defense, allowing 39.3 ppg vs I-A foes-- they’re 4-1, somehow winning at Georgia Tech, in game they led 19-0 before allowing 36 unanswered points to team that struggles throwing the ball. Hurricanes are 5-2 as road dogs under Golden (he’s a very good coach, he won at Temple!!!) but their run defense is putrid, allowing 258 rushing yards/game over last four games—even I-AA Bethune-Cookman had 233. Notre Dame is 8-7-2 vs spread as a favorite under Kelly. With Notre Dame joining in the ACC, guess this replaces Michigan as a big rivalry game for the Irish. Notre Dame (+2.5) beat Miami 33-17 in a bowl game two years ago, in last series meeting.

Counting its bowl game LY, Nebraska has allowed 111 points in losing its last three road games, including 36-30 (-5) at UCLA last month, when Bruins had 344 rushing yards despite starting five freshmen on offense; over last decade, Cornhuskers are 6-13 vs spread when getting points on foreign soil. Ohio State outrushed Nebraska 243-232 in Lincoln LY, but left 34-27 losers, mainly because they completed only 6-18 passes; Buckeyes are 5-0 in first year under Meyer, but underdog covered their last four games. OSU is 3-7 as home favorites since they made Tressel hang up his sweater vest. OSU allowed 532 yards to Cal, then 403 to UAB, but went to East Lansing and won tense 17-16 game, holding Spartans to 303TY. Big Dozen home favorites are 3-2 vs spread early in this season.

LSU is 5-0, but they can’t be happy with last two games, a 12-10 (-20) win at a desperate Auburn squad, then sluggish 36-22 win over I-AA Towson State (was 17-9 at half); this is huge game for transfer QB Mettenberger to establish himself- he’s completed 65.8% of passes, but was just 15-27/169 at Auburn. Until he does better, foes will stack defense against LSU running game, which averaged 4.7 ypa in first three games, but was down to 4.1/4.5 last two weeks. Tigers beat Florida last two years, 33-29/41-11, making them 5-3 in last eight series games; Bayou Bengals outgained Florida 453-213 LY. LSU covered five of last six tries as a road favorite. Over last decade, Florida is 0-3 as an underdog in the Swamp. Gators have had very strong second halves in their two toughest games, wins at Texas A&M/Tennessee.

Other Notes
-- TCU QB Paschall (off-field issues) is out for this week.
-- Navy is 7-1-1 vs spread in its last nine games with Air Force.
-- Michigan State covered 10 of its last 13 games as a road favorite.
-- Northern Illinois covered nine of its last eleven games.

-- Army covered five of its last six home games.
-- Cincinnati covered five of its last six rivalry games with Miami, O.
-- Eastern Michigan covered only five of its last 22 home games.
-- Rutgers covered just once in its last six away games.

-- Western Michigan covered eight of its last 11 as a home favorite.
-- Kansas State covered 12 of its last 17 games overall.
-- Nevada is 25-12 in its last 37 games as a home favorite; Wyoming covered 15 of last 19 as a road underdog.
-- NC State is 9-3-1 in last 13 games as a home underdog.

-- Oregon covered its last eight games against Washington.
-- Oklahoma is 19-8 vs spread in game following a loss.
-- Wisconsin covered nine of last 10 as Big Dozen home favorite.
-- Michigan State covered 10 of its last 13 games against Indiana.

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NCAAF

Saturday, October 6

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LSU at Florida: What bettors need to know
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LSU at Florida (2.5, 42)

When No. 11 Florida hosts No. 3 LSU on Saturday – the ninth straight time both teams are ranked entering the game – points will be at a premium. The Tigers are giving up 12.6 points per game, the Gators 12.8. Florida was off last week while LSU turned in an uninspiring performance, beating FCS foe Towson 38-22 at home. Florida leads the all-time series 30-25-3, but LSU has won the last two meetings, including 41-11 in Baton Rouge last year. This game features first-year starting quarterbacks in Florida's Jeff Driskel and LSU's Zach Mettenberger. Driskel has been far more efficient thus far.

TV: 3:30 p.m., ET, CBS.

LINE: LSU -2.5, O/U 42)

WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the mid-80s with a 30 percent chance of thunderstorms. Winds will be light out of the north.

ABOUT LSU (5-0, 1-0 SEC West): The Tigers fumbled five times, losing three, in the win over Towson. They shockingly gave up 188 rushing yards to an FCS school and allowed the junior Mettenberger to be sacked four times. Coaches have been shuffling the offensive line ever since left tackle Chris Faulk went down with a knee injury after the first game. Wide receiver Odell Beckham was a bright spot Saturday, catching five balls for 128 yards and two touchdowns. LSU’s defense continues to get great penetration. The unit has 41 tackles for loss, including 11 sacks. Defensive end Sam Montgomery has 6.5 tackles for loss, while defensive tackle Anthony Johnson and linebacker Kevin Minter have 5.5 apiece.

ABOUT FLORIDA (4-0, 3-0 SEC East): Senior running back Mike Gillislee has run for 402 yards and five touchdowns, both second-best in the SEC. The sophomore Driskel has thrown for four touchdowns and run for another while throwing one interception, posting a 158.0 rating. The already stout defense could get a lift from the return of outside linebacker Jelani Jenkins, who had a pin removed from his fractured right thumb. Florida has not allowed a point in the fourth quarter and has outscored opponents 64-13 after halftime. The Gators are allowing 4.82 yards per pass attempt, which ranks fifth nationally.

TRENDS:

* Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings.
* Tigers are 2-5 ATS in their last seven meetings.
* Road team is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 meetings.
* Gators are 4-1 ATS in their last five games overall.

EXTRA POINTS

1. Since 1990, the Gators are 24-10 at home against SEC West teams.

2. LSU won 33-29 in its last visit to The Swamp when the Tigers pulled off a fake field goal in the fourth quarter to extend the game-winning drive.

3. The Gators have gone 1-7 in October the past two seasons, seeing hot starts fade when the schedule gets tougher.

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NCAAF

Saturday, October 6

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West Virginia at Texas: What bettors need to know
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West Virginia at Texas (-7, 73.5)

West Virginia put up historic numbers in its Big 12 opener last weekend - both offensively and defensively. The seventh-ranked Mountaineers will face a slightly stiffer defensive challenge this week when they travel to No. 9 Texas on Saturday night. West Virginia quarterback Geno Smith put himself in the Heisman driver’s seat by passing for 656 yards and eight touchdowns against Baylor last week, but needed every score in the 70-63 victory. Longhorns quarterback David Ash has been nearly as impressive as Smith and was in a similar spot during a 41-36 win over Oklahoma State last week. Both defenses are sure to be tested again Saturday, and both have had a tendency to give up big plays. The Mountaineers can point a finger at the secondary while Texas has struggled with missed tackles.

TV: 7 p.m. ET, FOX.

LINE: Texas -7, O/U 73.5.

WEATHER: Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the low-70s with a 20 percent chance of rain. Winds will be out of the north at 13 mph.

ABOUT WEST VIRGINIA (4-0, 1-0 Big 12): Smith is off to one of the best starts in NCAA history, passing for 1,748 yards and 20 touchdowns with no interceptions. The senior leads the nation in passing efficiency at 208.4 and has completed an astounding 83 percent of his passes in coach Dana Holgorsen’s offense. But while the Mountaineers lead the nation in passing yards and rank third in scoring offense, they are 96th in points against, surrendering an average of 32.5. Holgorsen was quick to praise his front seven at a Tuesday press conference while acknowledging that the secondary is young and inexperienced, which has led to some big plays and third-down conversions. The biggest assist to the defense has been Smith and the offense, which has turned the ball over only once in four games - tied for the best in the nation.

ABOUT TEXAS (4-0, 1-0): The Longhorns played an offense similar to West Virginia’s last week against Oklahoma State and barely escaped. The Big 12 issued an apology to the Cowboys on Wednesday, admitting to a botched call that led to Texas’ final touchdown. The ending and the defensive lapses did not overshadow the efforts of Ash, who has taken over control of the quarterback position and ranks second in the nation behind Smith in quarterback rating. The sophomore has completed more than 80 percent of his passes in the last two games and has thrown only one interception this season. Ash will be without running back Malcolm Brown (ankle) on Saturday, leaving Joe Bergeron a larger role in the backfield. The defense is a concern, as coach Mack Brown highlighted 12 missed tackles from the Oklahoma State game, with three of those leading to a pair of touchdowns and 109 total yards.

TRENDS:

* Longhorns are 4-0 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
* Over is 4-0 in Mountaineers’ last four October games.
* Over is 6-1 in Longhorns’ last seven games following an ATS win.
* Longhorns are 1-6 ATS in their last seven home games vs. a team with a winning road record.

EXTRA POINTS

1. Texas is 1-4 in its last five games against top-10 opponents.

2. The schools have met only once previously, with West Virginia capturing a 7-6 victory in Austin on Oct. 6, 1956.

3. The Longhorns have won 58 straight games when winning the turnover battle.

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College football betting weather watch: Week 6

Weather has certainly played a factor in the first five weeks of the college football season and will continue to do so in Week 6.

Here are a few key matchups that are being threatened by inclement weather Saturday:

Navy at Air Force (-8, 54.5)

Site: Falcon Stadium

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the low-30s with a 40 percent chance of snow. Winds will be light out of the south.

Boston College at Army (7, 56.5)

Site: Blaik Field at Michie Stadium

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the low-60s with a 35 percent chance of rain. Westerly winds at 7 mph are expected.

Massachusetts at Western Michigan (-16.5, 55)

Site: Waldo Stadium

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the high-40s with a 65 percent chance of showers. Westerly winds at 14 mph are expected.

LSU at Florida (2.5, 41.5)

Site: Ben Hill Griffin Stadium at Florida Field

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the mid-80s with a 40 percent chance of thunderstorms. Winds will be light out of the north.

Iowa State at TCU (-7, 41)

Site: Amon G. Carter Stadium

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the low-50s with a 40 percent chance of showers. Winds will be out of the north at 12 mph.

UNLV at Louisiana Tech (-27.5, 69.5)

Site: Joe Aillet Stadium

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the low-60s with a 40 percent chance of precipitation. Northerly winds at 9 mph are expected.

Oklahoma at Texas Tech (4, 57)

Site: Jones AT&T Stadium

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the high-40s with a 25 percent chance of rain. Winds will blow out of the east at 12 mph.

Georgia Tech at Clemson (-10, 72.5)

Site: Memorial Stadium

Forecasts are calling for mild temperatures in the mid-70s with a 25 percent chance of thunderstorms later in the afternoon. Winds will be light out of the west.

West Virginia at Texas (-7.5, 73)

Site: Darrell K. Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium

Forecasts are calling for temperatures in the high-60s with a 25 percent chance of showers. Winds will blow out of the north at 13 mph.

[StarDust Bum]

CFB | WYOMING at NEVADA
Play On - Any team (NEVADA) off a road no-cover where the team won as a favorite, in October games
46-18 over the last 5 seasons. ( 71.9% | 26.2 units )
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CFB | NEW MEXICO ST at IDAHO
Play On - A home team vs. the money line (IDAHO) poor passing team (5.6-6.4 PY/Att.) against a horrible passing defense (>=8.3 PY/Att.), after allowing 8 or more passing yards/attempt last game
42-21 since 1997. ( 66.7% | 0.0 units )
1-0 this year. ( 100.0% | 0.0 units )
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CFB | HAWAII at SAN DIEGO ST
Play Against - A road team vs. the 1rst half line (HAWAII) outrushed by their opponents by 100 or more yards/game on the season, after allowing 225 or more rushing yards in 2 straight games
109-58 since 1997. ( 65.3% | 45.2 units )
1-2 this year. ( 33.3% | -1.2 units )

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No. 5 Georgia takes on No. 6 South Carolina

GEORGIA BULLDOGS (5-0)
at SOUTH CAROLINA GAMECOCKS (5-0)

Kickoff: Saturday, 7:00 p.m. EDT
Line: South Carolina -1½, Total: 55

Two of the nation’s elite teams square off on Saturday night in Columbia, SC when No. 5 Georgia visits No. 6 South Carolina.

Georgia has dominated this series recently, going 7-3 SU, but South Carolina is 6-2-2 ATS in this span, including two straight SU victories. The Gamecocks scored on a fake punt, INT return and fumble return in a wild 45-42 win in Athens last year. Aaron Murray threw 4 TD passes in a losing effort, and he is currently No. 3 in FBS passing efficiency, completing 69% of his passes for 1,378 yards, 12 TD and 3 INT. South Carolina star RB Marcus Lattimore has started 2012 a little slowly as he regains strength in his surgically-repaired knee, but has 358 rushing yards in two career games versus Georgia.

Who will prevail in this clash of SEC titans? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the ******* Experts picks for every key college football game throughout the 2012 season.

Georgia’s offense is putting up 48.2 PPG (8th in nation) and 536 total YPG (11th in FBS), which includes scoring 48.3 PPG in three SEC games. The Bulldogs are coming off a wild 51-44 win over Tennessee, where the freshman RB duo of Todd Gurley and Keith Marshall ran for 294 yards on 34 carries (8.6 YPC) with five touchdowns. For the season, Gurley leads the SEC with 536 rushing yards and 9 TD, gaining 7.9 yards per carry. Marshall has 428 rushing yards on 8.2 YPC and five scores. Although Murray is having a huge season, he will no longer have the services of leading receiver Michael Bennett (24 rec, 345 yds, 4 TD) who suffered a torn ACL in Tuesday’s practice. However, plenty of weapons remain in the passing game, most notably senior WRs Tavarres King (307 rec yds, 3 TD) and Marlon Brown (272 rec yds, 3 TD). Georgia’s defense obviously needs to improve in a big way from last week, when it allowed 281 passing yards and 197 rushing yards to the Vols despite the return of suspended stars LB Alec Ogletree and S Bacarri Rambo. Despite the big yardage allowed, the Bulldogs still forced four turnovers, giving them 10 over the past four weeks. Superstar LB Jarvis Jones also failed to record a sack against Tennessee for the first time all season, but he still has 4½ sacks and eight Tackles For Loss in 2012.

Like Georgia, South Carolina has also been thriving on offense, scoring more than 30 points in each of the past four games, all ATS victories. Connor Shaw has been nearly perfect in the past two contests (wins over Missouri and Kentucky), completing 35-of-39 passes for 397 yards, 4 TD and 0 INT. He was a big reason his team was able to overcome a 10-point halftime deficit to the Wildcats and outscore them 31-0 in the second half. Lattimore has also been much better in these past two games, compiling 281 total yards and four touchdowns. He was a big reason the Gamecocks won in Athens last year, compiling 176 rushing yards and a touchdown. South Carolina’s much-ballyhooed front four has not disappointed this season, as the Gamecocks rank second in the nation with 4.4 sacks per game. Jadeveon Clowney has 5½ sacks, while four others have at least two sacks this season.

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No. 10 Florida hosts No. 4 LSU on Saturday

LSU TIGERS (5-0)
at FLORIDA GATORS (4-0)

Kickoff: Saturday, 3:30 p.m. EDT
Line: LSU -2½, Total: 44½

A pair of top-10 teams will try to stay unbeaten when No. 4 LSU visits No. 10 Florida on Saturday afternoon.

LSU has beaten Florida the past two times they played, including a 41-11 blowout last year when the Tigers gained more yards on the ground (238) than the Gators had in total yards (213). This season, LSU has turned the ball over five times (with 19 penalties) during a two-game ATS skid, while Florida has committed just one turnover during a three-game ATS win streak. The Tigers rank fourth in FBS total defense (218 YPG), but have played an easier schedule than the Gators, who have 95 points in three SEC wins.

Who will win this SEC showdown? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the ******* Experts picks for every key college football game throughout the 2012 season.

Zach Mettenberger is having a solid year as LSU’s starting signal-caller, completing 66% of his passes for 1,016 yards, 6 TD and 2 INT. However, he was not very good in his lone road start, completing just 15-of-27 passes for 169 yards and two lost fumbles in a 12-10 win at Auburn. The Tigers are more likely to rely on their multi-player rushing attack in this game. Although Alfred Blue (knee) is out indefinitely, Kenny Hilliard (366 rush yds, 6 TD), Michael Ford (224 rush yds, 2 TD) and Spencer Ware (164 rush yds) are all capable backs. Ware ran for 109 yards and 2 TD against Florida last year. In the passing game, Odell Beckham, Jr. is coming off a huge performance against Towson, catching five passes for 128 yards and 2 TD. Although the Tigers are known more for their excellent run-stop unit (83 YPG allowed, 9th in nation), the passing defense has been even better this year, allowing 135 passing YPG, which ranks sixth among FBS schools. No Tigers opponent has reached 175 passing yards in a game this season. LSU is blessed with plenty of playmakers on the defensive side of the ball, forcing 12 turnovers so far in 2012.

Like LSU, Florida also knows how to run the football, averaging 225 rushing YPG (20th in FBS). Mike Gillislee leads the way with 402 rushing yards (2nd in SEC) and 5 TD, and he also had nice game at LSU last year with 56 yards on just nine carries. RB Trey Burton missed last week’s 38-0 win over Kentucky with a back injury, but he is expected to return to the field on Saturday. Sophomore QB Jeff Driskel has made great decisions all year, completing 70 percent of his passes for 698 yards (8.8 YPA), 4 TD and 1 INT. He is also the team’s second-leading rusher, scampering for 114 yards on 16 carries in the past two weeks. Driskel must be cognizant of LSU’s talented front four, especially considering Florida’s O-Line is allowing three sacks per game (104th in nation). The probable return of LB Jelani Jenkins (thumb) after a two-game absence will further enhance an excellent Florida defense. The Gators rank 10th in scoring defense (12.8 PPG) and 17th in total defense (305 YPG), but will need to pressure the quarterback with greater consistency moving forward. Florida has just 1.25 sacks per game (T-98th in nation) and 5.0 Tackles For Loss per game (T-84th in FBS).

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No. 21 Nebraska visits No. 12 Ohio State Saturday

NEBRASKA CORNHUSKERS (4-1)
at OHIO STATE BUCKEYES (5-0)

Kickoff: Saturday, 8:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Ohio State -3, Total: 57½

Two Big Ten heavyweights slug it out on Saturday night when No. 12 Ohio State hosts 21st-ranked Nebraska.

These schools met for the first time since 1956 last year when Ohio State blew a 21-point, third-quarter lead and lost 34-27 in Lincoln. QB Taylor Martinez had three second-half touchdowns and RB Rex Burkhead scored the game-winner, finishing with 178 total yards and 2 TD. This Huskers duo had 193 rushing yards and 3 TD in a 30-27 win over Wisconsin last week. The Buckeyes have held four of five opponents (all FBS) to 16 points or less, and QB Braxton Miller has 302 total YPG this season (2nd in Big Ten).

Who will win this key Big Ten showdown? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the ******* Experts picks for every key college football game throughout the 2012 season.

Martinez was certainly impressive against the Buckeyes last year, finishing 16-of-22 for 191 yards, 2 TD and 1 INT. He has been even better this year, with a 68% completion rate, 1,059 passing yards, 11 TD and just 1 INT. Kenny Bell has been his favorite target with a team-high 330 receiving yards and four touchdowns. With Burkhead missing time to injury earlier this year, sophomore RB Ameer Abdullah has given the team a speedier rushing option, gaining 486 yards and 5 TD on an impressive 6.2 YPC. Abdullah also leads the Big Ten in all-purpose yards (179 YPG). Although Nebraska’s run defense hasn’t been special (153 rush YPG allowed, 62nd in FBS), the front seven has gotten great penetration all season, recording 3.8 sacks per game (8th in FBS) and 8.6 Tackles For Loss per game (fifth in nation).

Miller injured his ankle in the third quarter of last year’s meeting with Nebraska, and was unable to help his team avoid the 28-0 game-ending run for the Huskers. Miller had 186 total yards and a touchdown before he exited the game. RB Carlos Hyde had missed the previous two games with a knee sprain, but he ran hard in his return last week with 49 yards on 11 carries. He also had the best game of his career against Nebraska last season, rushing for 104 yards and two touchdowns. With both Jordan Hall (knee) and Warren Ball (foot) out indefinitely, Hyde will likely have a larger workload moving forward. Miller has thrown for 8 TD and 3 INT so far, relying mostly on WRs Devin Smith and Corey Brown, who have combined for 668 receiving yards and 5 TD. On the defensive side of the ball, OSU’s pass defense has been burned by big plays all year. For the season, the Buckeyes rank 94th in the nation with 276 passing YPG allowed. The team has been pretty tough against the run though, allowing just 101 YPG (19th in nation).

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No. 8 WVU visits No. 11 Texas on Saturday night

WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINEERS (4-0)
at TEXAS LONGHORNS (4-0)

Kickoff: Saturday, 7:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Texas -7, Total: 74½

No. 8 West Virginia and No. 11 Texas meet for the first time in 56 years as both highly-ranked, Big 12 unbeatens take the field at Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium in Austin on Saturday night.

This game features the nation’s two highest passing efficiency quarterbacks. WVU’s Geno Smith (208.37 rating) also leads the nation with 457 total YPG, completing 83.4% of his passes for 1,728 yards, 20 TD and 0 INT. Texas QB David Ash (184.03 rating, 2nd in nation), has connected on 78.0% of his throws for 1,007 yards, 10 TD and 1 INT. The Mountaineers are on a three-game ATS skid despite 143 points (47.7 PPG), while the Longhorns are on a three-game ATS winning streak.

Who will win this Big 12 offensive showcase on Saturday night? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the ******* Experts picks for every key college football game throughout the 2012 season.

Smith has the top two receivers in the nation in terms of receptions with Tavon Austin (12.0 per game) and Stedman Bailey (10.3 per game). Baylor’s Terrence Williams is the only FBS receiver with more yards (167 rec. YPG) than Bailey (159 rec. YPG) or Austin (140 rec. YPG). The pair comprised most of Smith’s 656 passing yards and 8 TD last week, as the WR duo combined for 518 yards and 7 TD. RB Andrew Buie also rushed for two touchdowns, but was held to 82 yards on 25 carries (3.3 YPC). Although the Mountaineers defense was lit up by Baylor for 63 points and 700 yards last week, this D-line continues to wreak havoc on opposing quarterbacks, ranking 12th in the nation in sacks (3.3 per game) and eighth in Tackles For Loss (8.5 per game).

Ash is coming off another great game against Oklahoma State last week, completing 30-of-37 passes for 304 yards, 3 TD and 1 INT. All three of the touchdowns went to Jaxon Shipley, who leads the team with 17 receptions. With top RB Malcolm Brown getting injured last week, Texas managed a paltry 136 rushing yards on 42 carries (3.2 YPC). With Brown out for Saturday’s game, Joe Bergeron will be the main ball carrier. He injured his shoulder a couple of weeks ago, but scored both rushing touchdowns against the Cowboys, gaining 48 yards on 15 carries. Texas is also concerned about its porous run defense allowing 180 rushing YPG (86th in nation). Last year, the ‘Horns gave up just 96 rushing YPG, which ranked sixth in the country. They are also surrendering way too many big plays, allowing five touchdowns of 44+ yards this season. Texas continues to be opportunistic on defense though, forcing eight turnovers in the four victories.

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Saturday, October 6

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Navy - 11:30 AM ET Air Force -8 500
Air Force - Over 54.5 500

Arkansas - 12:00 PM ET Arkansas +7 500
Auburn - Over 56 500

Michigan State - 12:00 PM ET Michigan State -15.5 500
Indiana - Under 48.5 500

Connecticut - 12:00 PM ET Connecticut +7 500
Rutgers - Under 40 500

Buffalo - 12:00 PM ET Ohio -14 500
Ohio - Under 57 500

Northwestern - 12:00 PM ET Penn State -2.5 500
Penn State - Under 47.5 500

South Florida - 12:00 PM ET Temple +3.5 500
Temple - Under 47 500

Boston College - 12:00 PM ET Army +7 500
Army - Under 56.5 500

Kansas - 12:00 PM ET Kansas State -24.5 500
Kansas State - Over 53.5 500

Boise State - 12:00 PM ET Boise State -10 500
Southern Mississippi - Over 47.5 500

Mississippi State - 12:21 PM ET Mississippi State -10 500
Kentucky - Over 46 500

Virginia Tech - 12:30 PM ET North Carolina -5.5 500
North Carolina - Under 50 500

Kent State - 1:00 PM ET Eastern Michigan +3 500
Eastern Michigan - Over 48.5 500

Bowling Green - 2:00 PM ET Akron +4.5 500
Akron - Under 64 500

Massachusetts - 2:00 PM ET Massachusetts +17 500
Western Michigan - Over 55 500

Arizona - 3:00 PM ET Stanford -9.5 500
Stanford - Over 54 500

Virginia - 3:00 PM ET Duke -1 500
Duke - Over 55.5 500

Northern Illinois - 3:00 PM ET Northern Illinois -2.5 500
Ball State - Over 66.5 500

Central Michigan - 3:00 PM ET Central Michigan +11.5 500
Toledo - Under 68 500

Louisiana State - 3:30 PM ET Louisiana State -2.5 500
Florida - Under 42 500

Wake Forest - 3:30 PM ET Wake Forest +7 500
Maryland - Over 47.5 500

Georgia Tech - 3:30 PM ET Georgia Tech +10.5 500
Clemson - Over 73 500

Tulsa - 3:30 PM ET Marshall +4 500
Marshall - Under 69 500

UL Monroe - 3:30 PM ET Middle Tennessee +3 500
Middle Tennessee - Under 66 500

Iowa State - 3:30 PM ET Iowa State +7 500
Texas Christian - Under 41 500

Oklahoma - 3:30 PM ET Oklahoma -4 500
Texas Tech - Over 57 500

Illinois - 3:30 PM ET Illinois +14.5 500
Wisconsin - Over 45 500

Michigan - 4:00 PM ET Purdue +3 500
Purdue - Over 58 500

Tulane - 5:00 PM ET UL Lafayette -27.5 500
UL Lafayette - Over 54.5 500

New Mexico State - 5:00 PM ET New Mexico State +9.5 500
Idaho - Over 57 500

Texas State - 6:00 PM ET Texas State +3 500
New Mexico - Over 50 500

Washington State - 6:00 PM ET Oregon State -14.5 500
Oregon State - Under 58.5 500


Evening Games Posted Later Good Luck Gang !

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For what its worth not sure why this didn't post......

Evening Best Bets:

Fresno State - 7:00 PM ET Fresno State -17.5 500
Colorado State - Under 59 500

Vanderbilt - 7:00 PM ET Vanderbilt +7 500
Missouri - Under 45 500

Texas A&M - 7:00 PM ET Texas A&M -13 500
Mississippi - Over 64.5 500

Rice - 7:00 PM ET Memphis +5.5 500
Memphis - Over 60 500

North Texas - 7:00 PM ET Houston -11 500
Houston - Over 58 500

West Virginia - 7:00 PM ET West Virginia +7 500
Texas - Over 73.5 500

Georgia - 7:00 PM ET Georgia +1.5 500
South Carolina - Under 54.5 500

Miami (Ohio) - 7:00 PM ET Miami (Ohio) +20 500
Cincinnati - Over 58 500

UNLV - 7:00 PM ET Louisiana Tech -27.5 500
Louisiana Tech - Under 69.5 500

Wyoming - 7:05 PM ET Nevada -18.5 500
Nevada - Over 68 500

Miami - 7:30 PM ET Notre Dame -14 500
Notre Dame - Under 54 500

Hawaii - 8:00 PM ET San Diego State -21.5 500
San Diego State - Over 59.5 500

Florida State - 8:00 PM ET North Carolina State +16.5 500
North Carolina State - Under 54.5 500

Nebraska - 8:00 PM ET Ohio State -3 500
Ohio State - Over 56.5 500

Southern Methodist - 8:00 PM ET Southern Methodist +2.5 500
Texas El Paso - Under 53 500

UCLA - 10:00 PM ET California +2.5 500
California - Over 55.5 500

Washington - 10:30 PM ET Oregon -24 500
Oregon - Over 62 500

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October Record:

Date WLT Pct Net Units Record

10/06/12 53-*44-*1 54.64% +*2300 Detail
10/05/12 2-*2-*0 50.00% -*100 Detail
10/04/12 1-*5-*0 16.67% -*2250 Detail

Totals 56-*51-*1 52.34% -*50