The Bum's October's College Football Best Bets !

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NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 6

Thursday's games
East Carolina-Central Florida both had tough games Saturday, with ECU winning conference game with UTEP, Knights losing to BCS opponent Missouri at home. Pirates are 4-8 as road dogs under McNeill, pulling an upset at winless Southern Mississippi, getting waxed at South Carolina (48-10), North Carolina (27-6). Dogs covered four of last five series games; ECU won five of last six series games, with totals of 69-84 in last two. UCF is 12-7 vs spread as home favorite since '09, but 0-2 this year; both their losses this season came vs BCS opponents. Favorites are 4-2 vs spread in C-USA games this season.

Utah lost by 9 at USC LY when they had game-tying FG blocked on the last play and Trojans ran it back for TD. Utes are 1-2 vs I-A opponents, allowing 28.3 ppg; since '03, they're 5-2 as home underdogs, but they do not run ball well, averaging 78 ypg vs I-A foes. USC lost at Stanford due to Cardinal's balance- 202 rushing yards, 215 passing; Trojans are 7-13 in last 20 tries as road favorites, 4-4 under Kiffin. Having senior QB is big in road games, and Trojand have Barkley. Home teams are 7-5 vs spread in Pac-12 games this year, home dogs 4-2. Tough to endorse Ute squad that lost last game 37-7 at ASU and also lost at Utah State.

Arkansas State led Western Kentucky 13-0 at half LW but lost 26-13 at home; they've got only 10 starters back from LY and are on third coach in last three years. Red Wolves allowed 243+ rushing yards in their three losses this year; they covered 10 of last 15 road games. FIU is 1-4, with only win in OT over Akron; Panthers are 15-12 vs spread at home with Cristobal as HC- they've got 17 starters back from LY. FIU lost 48-20 to UL-Lafayette LW, so both teams on downer. Only team Panthers held under 411 yards was Louisville, probably best team they've played.

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NCAAF

Thursday, October 4

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Arkansas St.-FIU: Nine things bettors should know
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Arkansas State vs. Florida International (+1, 57)
7:30 p.m. ET on ESPNU

1. This line opened with Florida International as a 1.5-point favorite and had moved 2.5 points as of Wednesday night to where FIU was a 1-point underdog.

2. True freshman E.J. Hilliard will make his first college start and second appearance for FIU. FIU lost starting quarterback Jake Medlock to a broken foot last week.

3. Florida International starting running back Kedrick Rhodes is 'day to day' due to an ankle injury. He looked tentative when forced into duties last week against Lousiana-Lafayette due to an unspecified injury to No. 2 tailback Darian Mallary. The Panthers are hopeful Mallary can return but his status is unclear.

4. Fortunately for FIU, Arkansas State specializes in rushing (ranked 14th in the nation with 242 ypg) but not stopping it (ranked 113th with 224 ypg against). The Red Wolves rank 10th at stopping the pass though.

5. "...The second goal is to put a game plan in that your guys can execute on a short period of time... You've got to be careful about doing too much." - ASU coach Gus Malzahn in his weekly press conference this week.

6. Could be a simple game plan for Arkansas State - and for both schools on a short week. For whatever it's worth, the over/under is 7-13 in the 20 weekday college football games that had pointspreads this season.

7. Neither of these teams have allowed fewer than 26 points against an FBS program in nine games combined this season and the over/under is 4-1 in FIU games.

8. Consensus players are evenly split with 52 percent on ASU.

9. The home team has won the last five meetings in this series straight up. The last four meetings have gone under the total.

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NCAAF

Thursday, October 4

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USC at Utah: What bettors need to know
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USC Trojans at Utah Utes (+13.5, 47.5)

THE STORY: Southern California’s preseason billing took a big hit in mid-September and the No. 12 Trojans have the opportunity to take another step toward again becoming part of the national championship picture when they visit Utah on Thursday.

The Trojans suffered a 21-14 loss to Stanford on Sept. 15 after being hyped as perhaps the nation’s top team. USC can’t afford any further stumbles and will need to win an early November showdown with Oregon to regain its lofty status.

Utah was routed 37-7 by Arizona State in its last outing Sept. 22 and the Utes need to get star running back John White going. White has only 233 yards this season after setting a school record last year with 1,519.

Both teams are coming off byes and USC is visiting Salt Lake City for the first time since 1917. The last time these teams met, the Trojans took a 17-14 win at home after having a TD from a blocked field goal with no time remaining erased due to an excessive celebration penalty. Two hours after the game was final, the NCAA upheld the touchdown and changed the score to 23-14, causing chaos among sportsbooks who had USC favored by 8.5 points.

TV: 9 p.m. ET, ESPN.

LINE: USC opened as high as -14 in Las Vegas while some online markets opened the Trojans -13.

CONSENSUS: 62 percent of Consensus players are on USC Thursday night.

ABOUT USC (3-1, 1-1 Pac-12 South, 1-3 ATS): The Trojans defeated California 27-9 in their last outing in a contest in which the running game (296 yards) was more productive then senior quarterback Matt Barkley (192 yards). The Heisman Trophy candidate was intercepted twice and has been picked off five times to go with 1,005 yards and 12 touchdowns. Penn State transfer Silas Redd has rushed for a team-best 338 yards and four scores. Sophomore receiver Marqise Lee already has 40 receptions for 457 yards. Junior defensive end Morgan Breslin leads the Pac-12 with 5.5 sacks while sophomore linebacker Dion Bailey leads the Trojans in tackles (32) and interceptions (three). USC has recorded 16 sacks and eight interceptions.

ABOUT UTAH (2-2, 0-1, 1-3 ATS): The Utes have struggled offensively since losing quarterback Jordan Wynn to a career-ending shoulder injury. Senior Jon Hays passed for only 117 yards in the loss to Arizona State and White had only 18 yards on 14 carries. The bye week has given White time to physically recover from an ankle injury that caused him to miss a game against Brigham Young. Utah expects to have junior defensive end Joe Kruger (2.5 sacks, two forced fumbles) and sophomore safety Eric Rowe back from injuries as the defense looks to bounce back after allowing 512 yards against Arizona State.

TRENDS:

* Trojans are 5-1 ATS in their last six conference games.
* Utes are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 conference games.
* Under is 6-2 in Utes last eight home games.
* Under is 4-1 in Trojans last five games overall.

EXTRA POINTS:

1. USC is 7-3 against Utah and won last year’s contest 23-14.

2. Utah is 6-1 after byes during Kyle Whittingham’s nine seasons as coach.

3. The Trojans have gone 185 games since last being shut out, one shy of the school-record streak set from 1967-1983.

[StarDust Bum]

No. 13 USC favored big at Utah Thursday

USC TROJANS (3-1)
at UTAH UTES (2-2)

Kickoff: Thursday, 9:00 p.m. EDT
Line: USC -13½, Total: 47½

No. 13 USC tries to climb back up the AP Poll with a nationally televised game at Utah on Thursday night.

Last September in Los Angeles, USC pulled off one of the greatest backdoor covers in college football history. Utah, an 8-point underdog, lined up for a game-tying FG, only to have it blocked and returned for a Trojans touchdown as time expired for a 23-14 final. Matt Barkley had 264 passing yards, 1 TD and 1 INT in that win, but he has thrown just 2 TD and 4 INT in his past two games. Utah was crushed 37-7 and outgained 512 to 209 in its last game at Arizona State two weeks ago.

Can USC leave Utah with a convincing win on Thursday? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the ******* Experts picks for every key college football game throughout the 2012 season.

Barkley’s Trojans need to do a better job of protecting the football after committing three turnovers in each of the past two games. Despite the miscues, USC still piled up 488 yards in its 27-9 win over California last week. Marqise Lee had 11 catches and 2 TD against the Bears, giving him 40 receptions for 457 yards and 6 TD in his four games this season. Fellow teammate WR Robert Woods has been pretty quiet in the past two weeks, gaining just 68 yards, but he racked up 102 yards on eight catches against Utah last year. USC could not run the football in its loss at Stanford (26 yards on 28 carries), but ran for 296 against Cal with Silas Redd rumbling for 158 of those yards and a touchdown. The USC defense has forced 2+ turnovers in all four of its games, and held Cal to a mere 250 total yards in its last game.

The Utes are still trying to cope with losing starting QB Jordan Wynn for the season with a shoulder injury, but his replacement Jon Hays wasn’t too bad in the loss to Arizona State, completing 10-of-15 passes for 117 yards, 1 TD and 1 INT. The Utes’ biggest disappointment this year has been RB John White, who had 1,519 rushing yards and 15 TD, but has rushed for only 233 yards and one touchdown in 2012. White was held to 18 yards on 14 carries in the loss to the Sun Devils, and had just 56 yards on 20 carries in last year’s meeting with the Trojans. Utah’s defense has been solid (330 total YPG, 29th in nation), especially against the run (111 YPG, 27th in FBS). The Utes have tallied 11 sacks and six forced turnovers in their four games in 2012.

[StarDust Bum]

ACC Report - Week 6

October 3, 2012

Well, I was 3-1 on my picks for the Atlantic Coast Conference last weekend, and the only loss was a late add-on. I took my son to the Idaho-North Carolina game, and it was a deluge overnight, during the morning and into the afternoon. I figured it would be a lower scoring game. Idaho held up their end of the bargain with a goose egg, but North Carolina scored their most points EVER, walloping the Vandals 66-0. That caused the over to cash midway through the fourth quarter. Oh well. Let's try for a goose egg in the loss column of the ACC picks this weekend.

Saturday - Miami (Fla.) at Notre Dame (NBC, 7:30 p.m. ET)
Matchup Five-Star Game

Ahh, if this were only the 1980's, this would be a game everyone wants to see. As it stands, it is the No. 10 team in the nation hosting a 4-1 Hurricanes team, so this game has become a little more attractive over the past couple of weeks. Miami thumped NC State last week at home, with QB Stephen Morris introducing himself to the nation with a school record 566 yards passing and five touchdowns. That's better than Jim Kelly, Bernie Kosar, Vinny Testaverde, etc. ever did. However, look for Morris to take a huge step backward against an Irish defense which has been voracious this season. Just ask Denard Robinson and Michigan. The Hurricanes are 1-4 ATS in their past five games at neutral site games, and this one will be played at Soldier Field in Chicago. Notre Dame already has a neutral site game under their belt, swatting Navy and covering over in Dublin, Ireland, to open the season. However, ND is 2-5 ATS in their past seven against teams with a winning record. If you're just dying to make a play for this game, the under might be the way to go. The under is 41-19 in Miami's past 60 non-conference games, while the under is 12-3 for ND against ACC opponents, and 6-1 in their past seven games overall.

Saturday - Virginia Tech at North Carolina (Gameplan/ESPN3, 12:30 p.m. ET)
Matchup Four-Star Game

We could call this one the Jekyll and Hyde Bowl, as we're not exactly sure which team will show up for which team. Starting with the Hokies, they looked good in dispatching Georgia Tech to open the season, but they inexplicably fell to Pittsburgh on the road Sept. 15, and again at Cincinnati last weekend. They're 3-0 SU at home, but 0-2 on the road. That has to change. Will it change Saturday? That's the big question. The Tar Heels smashed Idaho last week, as mentioned above, and have thumped home opponents to the tune of 155-6 in three games at Kenan Stadium. Methinks this one will be a little different, however, as the competition level is much better than that of Elon, East Carolina and Idaho. The Hokies are just 1-5-1 ATS in their past seven games overall, and 3-7 ATS in their past 10 road games. In addition, VT is just 2-5 ATS in their past seven conference games, including 0-1 this season. UNC is 5-0 ATS in their past five home games, and 10-2 ATS in their past 12 home games against teams with a winning record. However, the dog is 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings in this series, and the road team has covered six straight times. The under might be the play here, as VT has gone under in four straight ACC games, and the under is 6-2 in their past eight overall. For UNC, the under has connected in five straight in this series, although the over has hit in four of their past five home games.

Saturday - Florida State at North Carolina State (ESPN2, 8:00 p.m. ET)
Matchup Three-Star Game

The Florida State express rolls into Raleigh looking to take claim another ACC victory, but most opponents know, especially at night, that Carter-Finley Stadium is a difficult place to play, especially under the lights. Just ask Clemson last season, as they were rolled by the Wolfpack in a late-season evening contest. Speaking of rolled, whatever happened to CB David Amerson for NC State? He entered the season with all kinds of fanfare and accolades, and was supposed to be the Darrelle Revis of the ACC. So far, he has looked more like former NFL DB Elvis Patterson, nicknamed Toast. Amerson was on the field for all five of those Morris TD throws in Miami. NC State is not playing well, but again, strange things happen in this series, especially in Raleigh. The Seminoles are just 1-9-1 ATS in their past 11 meetings with the Wolfpack, and FSU is 0-4-1 ATS in the past five meetings at Carter-Finley. In addition, the dog is 9-1-1 ATS in the past 11 meetings in this series. Remember back in 1998, a 25-point underdog Wolfpack team with WR Torry Holt stunned a then-No. 2 ranked FSU team by a 24-7 score. Am I saying it will happen again? Well, I am not betting the moneyline and NC State, but this is a dangerous game for Florida State in their first true road test of the season.

Saturday - Georgia Tech at Clemson (ESPN, 3:30 p.m. ET)
Matchup Two-Star Game

What happened to Georgia Tech? They looked pretty impressive, despite a loss, in their opening game at Virginia Tech. Then, they got it done at home against Presbyterian and Virginia. The latter was an impressive 56-20 win, which looked like the Yellow Jackets were back on track. However, they then blew a giant lead against Miami two weeks ago, slipping 42-36 in overtime. If that wasn't bad enough, they were upended by Middle Tennessee, a Sun Belt team which was tripped up by McNeese State earlier in the year. And it isn't bad enough Ga. Tech was beaten at home, but they were trucked 49-28. So what can we expect at 3:30 on Saturday? The Ramblin' Wreck is favored by 10.5. Will we get the team that stomped UVA, or the team which was completely listless against the Blue Raiders last week? It's hard to say, but I wouldn't touch Ga. Tech with a 10-foot pole. They're 4-9-1 ATS over their past 14 games, and Clemson looked awfully good dispatching BC on the road last week despite no WR Sammy Watkins (illness) out of the lineup. Officially, Watkins is listed as questionable this week.

Saturday - Virginia at Duke (GamePlan/ESPN3, 3:00 p.m. ET)
Matchup One-Star Game

The Duke Blue Devils are 4-1. Let me repeat that, because they don't get to say that very often in Durham. The Duke Blue Devils are 4-1 AND they are 1-0 in the ACC standings, one of five teams in the 12-team league with an unblemished conference record. It's hard to believe, but Duke is legit. And Vegas is slowly starting to take notice, installing them as a one-point favorite over Virginia, a team they have historically struggled against. Heck, they have historically struggled against everybody. The facts are simple here. Duke is 3-0 at home, Virginia is 0-2 on the road. The Blue Devils are 6-0 ATS in their past six home games, and 4-1 ATS in their past five overall, while the Cavaliers are 2-5 ATS in their past seven road games against a team with a winning record. Virginia is 0-4 ATS in their past four overall against winning teams and 0-6-1 ATS in their past seven overall. And Duke has played UVA closely of late, while maybe not necessarily winning. The Blue Devils are 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings in this series, and 5-1 ATS in the past six showdowns at Wallace Wade Stadium. Can you pull the trigger? Well, now that you're all lathered up, and a believer in Duke, there is a big note of concern. QB Sean Renfree (elbow) is questionable, so it is a good idea to wait until the final health report on his status before submitting your play. Renfree is the engine that drives the offense, and a start by Anthony Boone wouldn't necessarily be terrible, but it wouldn't give me the same confidence Duke can win again.

Other Games to Watch
Matchup Notes

Wake Forest has been a strange team this season, looking decent one week, and looking absolutely atrocious the next. It seems there are quite a few teams like that in the ACC this season, so be very careful. Maryland has been atrocious pretty much all of the time. It's hard to believe they hung with West Virginia the way they did, and I guess we can chalk that up to it being a rivalry of sorts. The Terrapins are 2-9 ATS in their past 11 games, and 0-8 ATS in their past eight home games. The Deacs are 6-15 ATS in their past 21 road games, and 2-5 ATS in their past seven games in the month of October. The favorite is 4-1 in the past five, and the home team is 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings. Wake Forest has struggled with Maryland, going 3-10 ATS in the past 13 meetings, including 1-5 ATS in their past six trips to College Park.

The Eagles have been a high-flying bunch, and at first glance BC is easily the play here. Boston College is 4-1 ATS in their past five road games, while Army is 1-5 ATS in their past six non-conference games, including a loss at Wake Forest two weeks ago. However, digging deeper, we see that BC is just 7-19 ATS in their past 26 games against teams with a losing record. That's alarming, as perhaps the Eagles don't get up for games against poor teams. The Black Knights are 5-2 ATS in their past seven home games, so keep that in mind. Just to confuse you more, though, the road team is 5-1 ATS in the past six games. With all of these trends, both recent and historically, the best thing to do is stay away, or bet BC lightly.

[StarDust Bum]

USC at Utah

October 3, 2012

After a big upset in the Pac-12 last Thursday night there is another big game out west spotlighted this week to kick off the football weekend. USC and Utah played a very tight game early last season with the Trojans prevailing in a wild finish, creating big controversy in the gambling world with a bizarre final play. It has been nearly 100 years since USC has had to play in Salt Lake City however. Here is a look at that big game as well as two other Thursday night college football match-ups.

Matchup: USC Trojans (3-1 SU, 1-3 ATS) at Utah Utes (2-2 SU, 1-3 ATS)
Venue: Rice-Eccles Stadium, Salt Lake City, Utah
Date: Thursday, October, 4 2012
Time/TV: 9:00 PM ET – ESPN
Line: USC -14, Over/Under 47
Last Meeting: 2011, USC (-8½) 23-14 at USC

The Trojans were a very popular pick to be playing in Miami in January but there have been some struggles early in the season. Stanford knocked off USC in mid-September and completely changed the trajectory of the season for USC. This is a team that can still win the Pac-12 and still play in a BCS bowl, but getting to the national championship game will be much tougher and there are still many big games ahead.

One of the preseason favorites for the Heisman was USC quarterback Matt Barkley. He has solid numbers in 2012 but he has thrown five interceptions in four games and his 61 percent completion rate is well below last season’s mark. USC has two elite wide receivers that are posting great numbers but they have not been quite as prolific as many expected. The running game has been very good with Penn State transfer Silas Redd stepping in but USC is posting just 33 points per game and 422 yards per game, short of last year’s numbers.

Defense was not expected to be the strong point of this team but the numbers are good with just 17 points allowed per game this season. USC has produced 16 sacks and created 10 turnovers. The numbers could get worse as the conference season progresses but the run defense has been very effective with only 117 yards per game allowed on the ground.

Many thought Utah would win the Pac-12 South last season with USC on probation but the Utes went just 4-5 in conference play, losing at home in the finale against Colorado as big favorites to lose a spot in the Pac-12 championship game. The Utes have been viewed as a sleeper in the conference again this season but the opening game was a disaster, losing to Arizona State 37-7 two week ago in Tempe.

Starting quarterback Jordan Wynn was injured early in the year and while back-up Jon Hays has a lot of experience he is not the same threat. Utah has struggled in the passing game as Hays has thrown for less than 500 yards in three games with only 59 percent completions. John White rushed for over 1,500 yards last season but it will be hard for the senior running back to match that this year as he has just 233 yards. He did miss the BYU game that Utah won and Utah has never lost when he eclipses 100 yards, so getting the running game going will be a key focal point for the Utes.

Utah has a veteran defense that has been better than last season despite the team being 2-2. Utah has allowed less than 330 yards per game but the secondary featuring four returning starters has come up with just two interceptions and few big plays. Utah has enough talent to remain a solid defensive team all season and is led by senior Star Lotulelei who can cause big problems on the interior line.

Utah will need to be stout defensively early and control the ball with the running game to stay in this game. If USC scores quickly and is able to build a lead it will be very difficult for Utah to present a comeback threat. Utah will likely need a few turnovers or big plays on special teams to have a legitimate shot at an upset but if they are able to hang around early they can keep this game competitive.

Line Movement: Initial offerings priced this game with USC as a 13-point favorite with the line climbing up to -14. The total has dropped slightly from 47½ to 47 and USC is -600 on the moneyline.

Last Meeting: In 2011 these teams faced off early in the year for just the second game of the season for both teams. Utah was able to get some big plays with three turnovers to stay in the game and on the final play of the game a 41-yard field goal from Utah’s Coleman Peterson was blocked by Matt Kalil. A successful kick would have meant overtime at 17-17 but the block was returned for a touchdown by Torin Harris that would have made the final 23-14, a key play with a spread that was between 7½ and 8½ for most. It was one of the more memorable games from a betting standpoint because the officials did not indicate a touchdown on the play and called a penalty for USC players running onto the field before the play was over. Many sportsbooks posted a 17-14 final and paid off some of the wagers. The Pac-12 declared that the touchdown counted a few hours later however, changing the scenario for both the side bets and most total bets.

Series History: Last year’s meeting was the first since 2001 when Utah beat USC 10-6 in the Las Vegas Bowl. USC had previously defeated Utah 28-21 in the 1993 Freedom Bowl. USC has not played in Salt Lake City since a 51-0 win in 1917.

USC Historical Trends: Since 2008 USC is just 7-13 ATS as a road favorite but they are 4-4 ATS in that role under Lane Kiffin. The Trojans are 8-5 ATS in road games since 2010 but going further back USC is on an ugly 13-22 ATS run as a road favorite of seven or more points.

Utah Historical Trends: The Utes have been one of the great underdog performers in the last two decades, going 57-28-2 ATS since 1990. Since Kyle Whittingham took over the program Utah is 17-12-1 ATS as an underdog, including going 5-2 as a home underdog.

There are two additional games Thursday night this week:

East Carolina at Central Florida 8:00 PM ET
Line: Central Florida -11½, Over/Under 47

East Carolina leads Conference USA at 2-0 but there are certainly red flags in the statistical profile as the Pirates were out-gained in each of their first four games until last week’s home win over UTEP. Both of these teams have taken on challenging non-conference games with East Carolina losing to South Carolina and North Carolina, while Central Florida has lost fairly close games with Ohio State and Missouri. UCF is expected to be one of the top teams in Conference USA this season but the Knights are ineligible for the postseason. Edges on both sides of the ball appear dramatic for UCF but last season East Carolina won in this match-up 38-31.

Arkansas State at Florida International 7:30 PM ET
Line: Arkansas State -1, Over/Under 59½

Arkansas State won the Sun Belt last season with a perfect 8-0 conference record. New head coach Gus Malzahn is 0-1 in league play after the Red Wolves lost at home to Western Kentucky. The defensive numbers look suspect for Arkansas State but they played Oregon and Nebraska in early season losses. Florida International has a veteran team that was expected to compete well in the Sun Belt this season and after great non-conference success last season the Panthers are sitting at 1-4 overall after losing badly in the Sun Belt opener last week against Louisiana-Lafayette. Statistically Arkansas State has posted 110 more yards per game on offense between these teams and Florida International is playing without quarterback Jason Medlock. Last season Arkansas State won 34-16 in Jonesboro.

[StarDust Bum]

Thursday, October 4

Game Score Status Pick Amount

Arkansas State - 7:30 PM ET Florida International +2 500
Florida International - Over 57.5 500

East Carolina - 8:00 PM ET Central Florida -11.5 500
Central Florida - Under 45.5 500

Southern California - 9:00 PM ET Southern California -14 500
Utah - Under 50.5 500

[StarDust Bum]

Friday Night Lights

October 4, 2012

Bettors have a pair of college football games to wager on Friday night. The action starts at 7:00 p.m. Eastern when Syracuse (1-3 straight up, 1-3 against the spread) plays host to Pittsburgh at the Carrier Dome.

As of late Thursday afternoon, most books were listing the Orange as a 1 1/2-point favorite with a total of 58 for ‘over/under’ plays.

Syracuse lost its opener at home to Northwestern 42-41 as a two-point home favorite. In Week 2, the Orange lost a 42-29 decision to USC in the Meadowlands but easily hooked up its backers as a 24 ½-point underdog.

Doug Marrone’s squad slipped past Stony Brooke 28-17 before losing 17-10 at Minnesota as a three-point road favorite on Sept. 22.

Syracuse has one of the Big East’s premier signal callers in senior Ryan Nassib, who has completed 67.1 percent of his throws for 1,355 yards with a 10/5 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Senior WR Marcus Sales is favorite target. Sales has 26 catches for 370 yards and five touchdowns.

Pittsburgh (2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS) has won back-to-back games since getting off to a disappointing start. The Panthers lost their season opener to Youngstown St. 31-17 as 18 ½-point home favorites. Next, they got humiliated on national television in a 34-10 loss at Cincinnati on a Thursday night as 4 ½-point underdogs.

But Paul Chryst’s responded nicely by trouncing Va. Tech 35-17 as a 10-point home underdog in Week 3. Tino Sunseri completed 19-of-28 passes for 283 yards and three touchdowns against the Hokies.

Rushel Shell rushed 23 times for 158 yards, while Ray Graham added 94 rushing yards and a pair of TD runs on 24 carries. The Pitt defense forced four turnovers by Va. Tech, intercepting Logan Thomas three times.

Before last week’s open date, Pitt mauled Gardner Webb 55-10 as a 40-point home ‘chalk.’ Sunseri threw for 344 yards and three TDs without being intercepted. Graham rushed for 94 yards and one TD on just eight carries.

For the season, Sunseri has connected on 67.2 percent of his passes for 1,144 yards with an 8/2 TD-INT ratio.

Mike Shanahan has made a team-high 21 catches for 368 yards and three TDs. Graham has rushed for 362 yards and three TDs, averaging 5.6 yards per carry.

Pitt has won seven in a row against the ‘Cuse, going 5-2 ATS in the last encounters. The Panthers won a 33-20 decision last year as eight-point home favorites.

The ‘over’ is 2-1 overall for the ‘Cuse, 1-1 for the Panthers.

Following ESPN’s telecast of Pitt-Syracuse, the network will take us out West for Utah St. at Brigham Young. Most spots are listing BYU (3-2 SU, 3-2 ATS) as a seven-point favorite with a total of 46. Gamblers can take the Aggies on the money line for a plus-230 payout (risk $100 to win $230).

BYU bounced back from a 7-6 loss at Boise St. to thump Hawaii by a 47-0 count last Friday. Making his first career start, freshman QB Taysom Hill rushed 15 times for 143 yards and one TD against the Warriors. Hill also threw for 112 yards and two TDs.

Bronco Mendenhall’s team began the year with a 30-6 win over Washington St. as a 13 ½-point home favorite. Next, the Cougars beat Weber St. 45-13 before dropping a 24-21 heartbreaker at Utah.

Hill got his first start last week because QB Riley Nelson was ‘out’ with a back injury. Nelson remains ‘out’ this week.

Utah St. (4-1 SU, 4-0-1 ATS) should be undefeated but it missed a short field goal on the final play of the game in a 16-14 loss at Wisconsin on Sept. 15. The Aggies have posted victories vs. Southern Utah (34-3), vs. Utah (27-20 in OT), at Colorado St. (31-19) and vs. UNLV (35-13).

Gary Andersen’s team has a dynamite sophomore QB in Chuckie Keeton, who has completed 67.7 percent of his attempts for 1,281 yards with an 11/4 TD-INT ratio. Keeton can also get it done with his legs, rushing for 218 yards.

During Mendenhall’s eight-year tenure, BYU has compiled a 22-16 spread record as a home favorite. On Andersen’s watch, Utah St. has thrived as a road underdog with a remarkable 12-2 ATS ledger.

The ‘under’ is a perfect 4-0 for Utah St. and 3-1 overall for BYU.

Utah St. is No. 35 in my Power Rankings going into this weekend.

[StarDust Bum]

Fade Alert - Florida State

October 4, 2012


Fear the Fat Cats

It’s the time of the season in which undefeated teams in the world of college football begin entertaining ideas of playing in the coveted BCS title game. Especially for those teams that have managed to open the season with five consecutive wins in their first five games.

Forewarned is forearmed, however, when it comes to ‘playing on’ these 5-0 clubs as Game Six is often times a major chuckhole on the road to the BCS title game for these Fat Cats.

That’s confirmed by the fact that, since 1980, these teams are 247-104-6 SU and 150-177-4 ATS overall. Hence, the bubble bursts 30% of the time in Game Six situations for teams that start the season on a 5-0 note.

Worse, if they won 7 or more games last season they dip to 86-112-3 ATS when taking on a foe with at least one loss on the season. Florida State, Ohio University and Oregon all take the field in this role looking to improve to 6-0 this week, with Alabama and Louisville sitting in the waiting room looking to do the same next week.

Week 6
Florida State at N.C. State
Ohio vs. Buffalo
Oregon vs. Washington

Week 7
Alabama at Missouri
Louisville at Pittsburgh

Put these same 5-0 Fat Cats up against an avenging foe who won 6 or more games last season and they begin to shrink up faster than a hemorrhoid staring at a tube of ‘Preparation H’, shriveling to 17-34-1 ATS. Florida State and Oregon are in line for a major application this week.

Best of all, if these identical 5-0 Fat Cats are on the road against an avenging foe who won 6 or more games last season they disappear, losing half the games in straight-up fashion, going 11-12 SU and 3-19-1 ATS.

As one of our all time favorite bands – the Traveling Wilburys – once said, it just might be the ‘End Of The Line’ for the Florida State Seminoles this weekend.

Stay tuned.

[StarDust Bum]

Big Ten Report - Week 6

October 4, 2012

Ohio State continues in ascension as one of the top teams in the league and will try to remain undefeated when the Huskers, off of a big win over Wisconsin, come to town. Meanwhile, Michigan is off of its bye week and will try to save some face after losing its two biggest games of the season thus far against Purdue, whom many expect to be a dark horse Big Ten title contender. ASA gives you all of the analysis and more!

Ohio State (-3.5) vs. Nebraska - (ABC, 8:00 p.m. ET)
OSU: Last week at Michigan State: W 17-16
UN: Last week vs. Wisconsin: W 30-27

The Buckeyes survived their first Big Ten road test in a win at Michigan State last weekend. Offensively Braxton Miller and the offense overcame three turnovers and managed 383 hard-earned total yards. But they were able to control the ball with 204 rush yards on 44 carries. The defense came up big against a stout MSU rush offense. The Bucks allowed just 34 yards on 22 carries (1.4 YPC) and dared QB Andrew Maxwell to beat them through the air - which he didn't. Nebraska has a much more balanced offense here and the Buckeyes won't be able to key on one aspect. The Huskers average 306 rush yards per game and 216 pass yards per game.

Nebraska looked abysmal in the first half, but came out on fire in the second half. The Huskers rallied from a 17-point third quarter deficit to beat the Badgers by three points. Nebraska allowed 236 yards and 20 first half points before holding Wisky to just 108 yards and seven points in the second. Offensively the Huskers were put the ball on the ground too many times as they fumbled six times, but were fortunate to only lose two. They put up 440 yards of total offense, 259 that came on four consecutive drives in the 2nd half that resulted in 20 straight points.

Neither team has faced a dual-threat quarterback like both defenses will face in Taylor Martinez and Braxton Miller. Last year Martinez rushed for 102 yards on 17 carries with one touchdown while Miller tallied 91 rush yards on 10 carries. The Huskers rallied from a 21-point deficit to win that game at home - much like they did last week against Wisconsin. Nebraska scored 28 second half points on their final six drives while OSU had four punts and two turnovers on its last six drives. OSU will be hungry for revenge here at home.

The Buckeyes are 27-4 SU & 21-10 ATS their last 31 Big Ten home games; though they were just 1-3 ATS last season. Nebraska is 2-5 ATS its last seven road games as an underdog, including 0-2 ATS in the Big Ten last season.

Injury report: The Buckeyes' RB Jordan Hall left in the first half of the Michigan State game with a knee injury. Urban Meyer said that Hall has a PCL tear in his right knee won't play against Nebraska. A PCL tear is not as serious as an ACL or MCL tear, but it is an injury that could hold Hall out for more than one week.

Purdue (+3) vs. Michigan - (Big Ten Network, p.m. ET)
PU: Last week vs. Marshall: W 51-41
UM: Last week: BYE

Purdue is 3-1 so far this season with a narrow loss to Notre Dame. Many experts peg the Boilers as a dark horse to contend for a Big Ten title. Offensively they've been extremely balanced and efficient. They are averaging 262 pass yards per game, 202 rush yards per game, and 42.5 points per game. Purdue's 51-41 win over Marshall last week is a bit deceiving as the Boilers took a 42-14 lead into halftime. The Herd put up a few meaningless touchdowns on the board late.

The Wolverines are averaging 20.9 points per game on the road the past two seasons, compared with more than 40 at home. This year, Michigan has scored just 20 total points in its two games away from Ann Arbor (albeit against outstanding defenses in Alabama and Notre Dame). Michigan lost both of those road games and the Wolves will try to reverse their road jinx here at Purdue. They had a bye week after the disaster against Notre Dame, where they scored just six points and QB Robinson threw four interceptions. Robinson has been shaky all season. He's completing less than 55% of his passes with six touchdowns and eight interceptions. Defensively Michigan will have its hands full this weekend, and this unit has been vulnerable. Teams have been able to run at will against Michigan, averaging 182 yards per game (UM ranks 90th against the run).

The Boilers allowed 535 total yards in a 36-14 loss last year in Ann Arbor. The Wolves rushed for 339 yards and four scores. Michigan is 1-3 ATS its last four against Purdue and 1-3 ATS its last four visiting Purdue. The Wolverines are also just 2-6 ATS as a Big Ten road favorite. Purdue is 3-1 ATS its last four as a home 'dog against Big Ten foes.

Injury report: The bye week appears to have worked well for the Wolverines' health. Head coach Brady Hoke said starters DE Brennen Beyer, WR Devin Gardner, FB Stephen Hopkins, OG Ricky Barnum are all healthy and ready to play this week. The one guy who's not quite back is starting TE Brandon Moore, who hasn't played since suffering a leg injury in the opener versus Alabama.

Penn State (-3) vs. Northwestern - (ESPN, 12:00 p.m. ET)
PSU: Last week at Illinois: W 35-7
NU: Last week vs. Indiana: W 44-29

Northwestern takes to the road for the first time since a September 1st trip to Syracuse. They improved to 5-0 last week in a big win over Indiana. Do-it-all "quarterback" Kain Colter is becoming one of the top playmakers in the Big Ten after he rushed for 161 yards and four scores and caught nine balls for 131 yards. The Wildcats could go a long way to prove their Big Ten legitimacy with a road win at Penn State. Northwestern has lost five straight times to Penn State and is seeking just its second-ever win in State College.

The Nittany Lions have won three straight and are playing at a high level defensively. They haven't allowed more than 24 points in a game this season and they haven't allowed more than 13 the past three weeks. They'll face their toughest test of the season against Northwestern's spread attack which averages 256 yards per game behind Kain Colter and Venric Mark. QB Matt McGloin continues to perform well in the new offense. McGloin is averaging 253 yards per game (63% completions) with six touchdowns and one interception during PSU's three game win-streak. He'll have his shot against this Northwestern defense that has been vulnerable to strong passing attacks.

McGloin passed for 192 yards and two scores in the Nittany Lions' 10-point win last season. Northwestern scored on four of its first five drives before being shutout in the final seven drives of the game. PSU is 5-0 SU & 4-1 ATS its last five vs. Northwestern, winning by an average of 15.8 points per game. Northwestern is 1-6 SU but 5-2 ATS in its last seven trips to State College.

Wisconsin (-14.5) vs. Illinois - (ESPN2, 3:30 p.m. ET)
UW: Last week at Nebraska: L 27-30
UI: Last week vs. Penn State: L 7-35

Both teams are coming off Big Ten losses, so there will be no shortage of motivation here. Wisconsin has something to build off of at least, after taking an early 20-3 over Nebraska before falling late. RB Ball rushed for three touchdowns, but also fumbled late. Freshman QB Stave wasn't spectacular in his first road start, and coach Bielema put in Danny O'Brien for the final drive. Wisky only totaled 295 yards on offense, but it was defensive inefficiencies that cost them the Nebraska game. The Badgers allowed 440 yards to the Huskers, including 259 on the ground (5.6 YPC average). They'll get a chance to right the ship in a home game against a struggling Illini squad Saturday.

The Illini look like a mess right now and are searching for answers in all three phases - and answers are usually hard to come by in Camp Randall Stadium. The offense was supposed to be much more explosive under Tim Beckman's spread attack. Instead, the team ranks 97th nationally in scoring at 22.6 points per game and 96th nationally in total offense. And that includes a stat-padding 44-0 victory over FCS Charleston Southern. The defense was supposed to be elite. But this unit has given up 45, 52, and 35 points its last three games against FBS opponents.

Wisconsin has won six of the last seven meetings against Illinois, but the Illini are 4-1 ATS over the last five meetings. The Illini haven't traveled to Camp Randall since 2008, but they've dropped three straight there by an average of 11 points per game. Illinois is 6-1 ATS its last seven as a double-digit underdog against conference foes.

Indiana (+15.5) vs. Michigan State - (Big Ten Network, 12:00 p.m. ET)
IU: Last week vs. Northwestern: W 29-44
MSU: Last week vs. Ohio State: L 16-17

Michigan State is off of a close home loss to Ohio State. Despite a plus-3 turnover ratio, the Spartans couldn't capitalize on offense. They rank 80th in yards per game and 112th in points per game. QB Maxwell and his receiving corps have yet to inspire any confidence that this offense can move the ball consistently through the air. Through five games Maxwell is completing just 55.7% of his passes with four touchdowns and three interceptions. Luckily they get a shot at one of the nation's worst defenses in Indiana this week. The Hoosiers rank 106th against the run, 95th in yards allowed, and 72nd in points allowed (IU allowed an astonishing 704 yards against Northwestern last week).

The Hoosiers have had no problem putting points on the scoreboard. Through four games they are averaging over 500 yards per game and 34.2 points per game. However, those strong numbers are based on one game against an FCS opponent, and three others against defenses ranked 116th, 111th, and 59th. They'll have a much more difficult time against this MSU defense that hasn't allowed more than 20 points in a game this season.

Michigan State is 7-1 SU & ATS in its last eight games against Indiana (average score of 41-20). The Hoosiers are 8-16 ATS in their last 24 games as a home underdog of two touchdowns or more. Michigan State hasn't been a two-touchdown or more road favorite in the Big Ten since 1999.

Iowa - BYE
UI: Last week vs. Minnesota: W 31-13

The Hawkeyes "brought home the bacon" in last week's rivalry win over Minnesota. Offensively the Hawks got another strong performance from walk-on RB Mark Weisman, who now has now rushed for 507 yards (7.0 YPC) and seven touchdowns the last three games. After a solid junior campaign when he threw for 25 touchdowns and seven interceptions; senior QB Vandenberg can't seem to get on track this season. He's completing less than 59% of his passes with just two touchdowns and two interceptions. All in all, it was a key win for Iowa as it now has some momentum heading into its bye week to prepare for its first big conference road test at Michigan State next Saturday.

Minnesota - BYE
UM: Last week at Iowa: L 13-31

Minnesota's early season hot streak came to a screeching halt in a loss to Iowa last week. The good news is that it was the first blemish on the Gophers' schedule. The bad news is that Iowa really exposed some weaknesses. QB Max Shortell struggled under center, throwing for just 197 yards with two touchdowns and three interceptions. As coach Jerry Kill said Sunday, the Gophers really need top quarterback MarQueis Gray to get healthy. Also unsettling was the play of Minnesota's defense, which couldn't stop Weisman. The Gophers can regroup during the bye week before their league home opener against Northwestern.

[StarDust Bum]

Tech Trends - Week 6

October 4, 2012


Thursday, Oct. 4
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

EAST CAROLINA at UCF...ECU has won three of last four meetings but has covered only of those (LY's 38-31 upset at Greenville). UCF 9-6 as home favorite (and 5-2 laying DD at home) since 2010. Slight to UCF, based on team trends.

SOUTHERN CAL at UTAH...Remember the way this one ended a year ago? Lane Kiffin just 1-3 vs. line this season and 0-2 as road chalk. Utes covered as home dog vs. BYU on Sept. 15 but Whittingham just 1-2 as home dog since 2010 and just 7-15 vs. spread last 22 on board since mid-2010. Slight to SC, based on recent Utah trends.

ARKANSAS STATE at FLORIDA INT'L...Gus Malzahn 2-3 vs. line TY after ASU was 10-3 vs. spread a year ago. But if FIU getting points note 9-4 dog mark since 2010 and 3-0 mark as home dog. Slight to FIU, especially if dog, based on team trends.

Friday, Oct. 5
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

PITTSBURGH at SYRACUSE...Pitt has covered last three and won SU last seven vs. Cuse. Marrone 1-3 vs. line TY and 4-12 since 2011. Cuse 2-6 last 8 as dog. Pitt, based on recent Cuse woes.

UTAH STATE at BYU...USU 27-11 overall as dog since 2007, 20-5 as road dog that span. Utags have also covered last four vs. BYU. But Cougs 9-5 as Provo chalk since 2010 after Hawaii win. USU, based on team and series trends.

Saturday, Oct. 6
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

NAVY at AIR FORCE...Falcs have turned this around by winning the past two seasons and helping Force to claim Commander-in-Chief back-to-back years. Although Mids still 7-1-1 vs. spread last nine meetings and have covered last five trips to Colorado Springs. Force only 3-10 as Falcon Stadium chalk since 2010. Navy, based on team and series trends.

MICHIGAN STATE at INDIANA...Spartans won over IU by 55-3 score LY! Road team is 5-0 vs. line in early MSU games this season (Spartans 1-0 on road vs. spread) and Dantonio 10-3 as road chalk since 2007. Kevin Wilson 6-10 vs. spread with Hoosiers since LY. MSU, based on road chalk mark.

NORTHERN ILLINOIS at BALL STATE...Cards 9-2 last 11 vs. number since mid 2011, including cover at DeKalb late LY. Lembo has also turned around what was a poor Ball State home spread mark by covering three of last four at Muncie. Huskies only 4-5 vs. line away since LY and Cards have covered 3 of last 4 in series. Ball State, based on recent Lembo marks.

BOSTON COLLEGE at ARMY...West Point 5-1 vs. line at home since LY in a reversal of previous spread form. BC only 4-7 as chalk (though 2-0 as road chalk) since 2010. Army, based on recent home mark.

BOWLING GREEN at AKRON...BGSU 1-3 vs. line last 4 TY, Akron 3-1 vs. line last 4 TY. Falcs 0-2 as MAC chalk since 2010. Akron, based on recent trends.

MIAMI-OH at CINCINNATI...Long-standing local rivalry has mostly favored Cincy lately, as Bearcats have covered last two easily and are 5-1 vs. number last six against RedHawks. Cincy hasn't lost SU to Miami since 2005. Cincinnati, based on series trends.

GEORGIA TECH at CLEMSON...Revenge for Dabo after Paul Johnson dealt Clemson its first defeat of 2011 a year ago. Paul Johnson 17-11 vs. line on road while at GT (although only 5-8 since 2010), but only 5-6 as dog since 2010. Dabo no covers last three in Death Valley and only 3-7 vs. spread last 10 on board since mid 2011. Slight to GT, based on team trends.

VIRGINIA at DUKE...Duke has had the spread edge lately in series, standing 4-0-1 vs. line last five vs. Cavs. UVa only 6-11-1 vs. spread since 2011 and 1-6 against number last seven on board since late LY. Cutcliffe has covered first three at Durham TY and is 17-10-2 vs. number overall since 2010. Duke, based on series and team trends.

SOUTH FLORIDA at TEMPLE...Skip 3-11 last 14 on board since early in 2011 campaign. Temple, based on recent Skip woes.

NORTHWESTERN at PENN STATE...O'Brien has recovered from Ohio loss with four straight Nittany Lions covers, although PSU still just 3-6-1 vs. line at Beaver Stadium since LY. Pat Fitzgerald 15-8 as road pick or dog since 2007, although remember that PSU brutalized NU in recent years (covered handily each of last three years). Slight to NU, based on recent trends.

KENT STATE at EASTERN MICHIGAN...Not much home edge in Ypsilanti for EMU, now 5-17 vs. line at Rynearson Stadium since 2007. Rugged Kent State, however, just 5-9 vs. line away since 2010 (1-1 TY), but 2-1 as road chalk since 2010. Kent State, based on extended EMU home woes.

UCONN at RUTGERS...Pasqualoni physically battered Rutgers LY but Scarlet Knights had covered previous three in series. Scarlet Knights 4-0 SU TY but 0-1 as home chalk, and 'Gers 0-3 laying DD at Piscataway since 2010. Pasqualoni only 1-4 as road dog since LY, however. Slight to Pasqualoni, based on team trends.

FLORIDA STATE at NC STATE...Revenge for O'Brien after getting routed 34-0 at FSU LY. We are almost to the point where the "go with NCS" kicks in for O'Brien after game five on schedule but note he is 10-4-1 vs. line at Raleigh since 2010 and 26-15-1 overall as dog with Wolfpack since 2007. NCS, based on team trends.

UMASS at WESTERN MICHIGAN...WMU is 8-3 as Waldo Stadium chalk since 2010 and 5-2 as DD Waldo chalk that span. WMU, based on Waldo chalk marks.

VANDERBILT at MISSOURI...James Franklin now no covers last three away from Nashville (0-2 TY) and just 2-6 vs. spread on road since LY. Slight to Mizzou, based on recent Vandy road woes.

TEXAS A&M at OLE MISS...Sumlin 13-5 vs. line since LY at UH & AM. But Hugh "Pointspread Cover" Freeze 4-1 vs. line at Ole Miss and 14-3 vs. spread since LY (Ark State & Rebs). Ole Miss, based on Freeze marks.

VIRGINIA TECH at NORTH CAROLINA...Beamer only 5-14 vs. line since LY. Fedora 3-0 vs. line at home TY but Beamer 32-19 vs. points away since 2004. VT, based on extended road mark.

WASHINGTON at OREGON...Ducks have dominated this series lately, winning and covering last eight meetings. Though Ducks had failed to cover last eight as DD Eugene chalk prior to recent romp past Arizona. Huskies only 2-5 vs. line on road since LY. Oregon, based on series trends.

GEORGIA at SOUTH CAROLINA...Spurrier has beaten Georgia past two years and is 4-0-1 vs. line last five in series. Mark Richt 0-5 as road dog since 2010. Cocks 7-3 vs. line last 10 at Williams-Brice. South Carolina, based on series and team trends.

WEST VIRGINIA at TEXAS...First Big 12 road game for WVU! Holgorsen was 3-1 as dog LY and Mounties 8-2 as dog going back to the 2007 season. Mack 5-10 vs spread at Austin since 20110 (but 4-4 since LY). WVU, based on team trends.

IOWA STATE at TCU...Paul Rhoads 4-1 vs. line last five away from Ames, 5-3 as road dog since LY. Frogs have covered first two as Fort Worth chalk TY but were only 2-5 in home chalk role LY and only 7-10 last 17 on board overall. Slight to ISU, based on recent trends.

ILLINOIS at WISCONSIN...Bielema 1-6 vs. line last 7 on board. Bielema was 6-1 vs. line at Madison LY but 0-3 thus far in 2012. Illini was 6-1 as dog the past two seasons but Beckman 0-1 in role after loss at ASU. Slight to Illinois, based on recent Bielema spread woes.

KANSAS at KANSAS STATE...Bill Snyder has won and covered all three vs. KU since his return to KSU sidelines in 2009, and has brutalized Jayhawks past two years with 59-point scoring explosions each time! Snyder now 15-1 SU last 16 in series! Snyder also 12-5 vs. line since 2011. KSU, based on Bill Snyder marks.

UCLA at CALIFORNIA...Underdog team has covered in first five Cal games this season. Tedford was 9-1 as home chalk past two years (including last year across SF Bay) but has failed to cover first three in role TY. Bears have beaten Bruins last six SU at Berkeley. Mora 2-0 vs. line on road. Slight to UCLA, based on recent trends.

ARKANSAS at AUBURN...Hogs 0-5 vs. line for John L. but Chizik only 1-3 vs. line this season and 6-11 vs. spread post-Cam. Host has covered last three in series. Auburn, based on recent John L. woes.

MICHIGAN at PURDUE...Danny Hope's Purdue is 3-0 vs. line TY and on 9-3 spread run since mid 2011. Boilermakers have covered 3 of last 4 in series, and Brady Hoke just 1-3 vs. line TY. Purdue, based on recent trends.

WYOMING at NEVADA...Wyo 15-4 as road dog since 2009 but just 14-15 vs. number since 2010. Chris Ault 25-12 as Reno chalk since returning to Pack sidelines in 2004. Nevada, based on home marks.

NEW MEXICO STATE at IDAHO...DeWayne Walker has covered the last two years vs. Akey. Idaho 5-12 vs. spread last 17 at Kibbie Dome. NMSU, based on recent Idaho home woes.

ARIZONA at STANFORD...Tree only 2-2 vs. line TY (1-2 as chalk) after 11-2 spread mark LY and 19-7 over the past two seasons. Tree did win and cover last two vs. Arizona with Andrew Luck. Zona 0-1 vs. line away TY and 4-10 last 14 away since late 2009, Rich-Rod teams just 3-12 their last 15 on road since 2008 at Michigan. Stanford, based on recent trends.

OKLAHOMA at TEXAS TECH...Revenge for Stoops after upset loss vs. TT in 2011 (Stoops 3-1 vs. line last two years in role). Tuberville 4-0 vs. line early in 2012. Home side has covered 5 of last 6 meetings including Red Raiders covering both at Lubbock. TT, based on team and series trends.

CENTRAL MICHIGAN at TOLEDO...Despite upset win at Iowa, Dan Enos' CMU just 4-20 last 24 on board since early 2010. Toledo has won and covered last two meetings. Toledo, based on CMU spread woes.

BOISE STATE at SOUTHERN MISS...Boise 23-7 its last 30 away since the 2008 season. Boise, based on team trends.

RICE at MEMPHIS...Ugh! Memphis 0-2 vs. line at home TY, 0-21 vs. spread at Liberty Bowl since 2007. Physical Owls were just 2-10 vs. line away the past two seasons but have covered their first two on road in 2012, and they're 9-3 in rare chalk role since 2007(2-1 since 2010). Rice, based on Memphis negatives.

WAKE FOREST at MARYLAND...Road team has covered in all four Terp games TY, and Edsall no covers last nine as host since LY! Deacs just 4-10 vs. line away since 2010. Slight to Wake, based on recent Maryland home negatives.

MISSISSIPPI STATE at KENTUCKY...Joker on the ropes, 1-4 SU and vs. line TY, now 6-13 as dog since taking over Cats in 2010. Dan Mullen is 3-0 SU and vs. line against UK. MSU, based on team and series trends.

WASHINGTON STATE at OREGON STATE...With the exception of a shock 31-14 home loss in 2010, Beavs have mostly dominated series, now 9-2 vs. line last 11 vs. Cougs. Mike Riley 2-0 SU and vs. line TY though beware of his 1-7 chalk mark the past two seasons. OSU, based on series trends.

UNLV at LOUISIANA TECH...Uh-oh, here we go again with UNLV on the road, 0-14 SU and 1-13 vs. line away since Bobby Hauck arrived in 2010, now 8-32 vs. number as visitor since 2005. La Tech on 10-1 spread run since mid 2011 though Sonny Dykes only 2-3 as home chalk since LY. La Tech, based on team trends.

TULSA at MARSHALL...Tulsa 10-5 vs. line away since 2010 (6-5 as road chalk). Doc Holliday has covered his last four as home doggie since 2010. Slight to Marshall, based on Doc Holliday home dog mark.

MIAMI (FL) vs. NOTRE DAME (at Soldier Field in Chicago)...Brian Kelly 4-0 SU and vs. line TY but Al "Touch of" Golden 6-2 vs. line away since arriving with Canes LY and his teams are 22-12 vs. points away since 2007 (Temple & ND). Golden teams also 19-10 as dog since 2007 (4-2 at Miami). Miami, based on extended Al Golden road/dog marks.

OHIO...Bulls out-hit Solich in 38-37 upset LY, but home team has covered 4 of last 6 and 6 of last 9 meetings. Solich 2-0 as DD home chalk TY after 0-3 mark at Peden Stadium in role LY. Ohio, based on series trends.

NEBRASKA at OHIO STATE...Bo Pelini no covers in three as road dog LY and covered just one of four (1-2-1) on Big Ten road LY. Home team 6-1-1 vs. spread last seven reg.-season Husker games dating to late 2011. Slight to Ohio State, based on recent trends.

HAWAII at SAN DIEGO STATE...Norm Chow appears to have some problems as UH has been buried in its last two games vs. Nevada & BYU by combined 116-24 score! UH 6-12 last 18 on board. But Rocky Long just 4-8 as chalk since taking over at SDSU and his teams are 13-22 last 35 as chalk at Lobos and Aztecs. Slight to SDSU, based on team trends.

FRESNO STATE at COLORADO STATE...FSU 5-0 vs. line TY including 2-0 on road. McElwain 1-4 TY for CSU and Rams just 6-13 vs. line last 19 on board since late 2010. Fresno, based on recent trends.

LSU at FLORIDA...Will Muschamp has now covered three straight as Gators begin ascent. Les Miles has won and covered last two vs. Gators after dropping previous five vs. line in series. Muschamp was 0-5 as dog LY but 1-0 in role TY (vs. Tennessee). Miles 7-2 as road chalk since 2010. Slight to LSU, based on recent trends.

TEXAS STATE at NEW MEXICO...Franchione returns to New Mexico! Bob Davie 2-0 vs. line at home TY! UNM, based on team trends.

SMU at UTEP...June Jones 7-12 last 19 and 10-17 last 27 on board as SMU spread fortunes plummet. Mike Price 4-1 SU and 5-0 vs. line last five against SMU! If getting points note Mustangs 3-7 last 10 as road dog. UTEP 2-0 vs. line at Sun Bowl TY and Price not so bad 6-5 as chalk since 2010. UTEP, based on team and series trends.

Saturday, Oct. 6 - Added Games
Matchup Skinny Tech Trend

TULANE at LOUISIANA...Wave 13-30-1 vs. line since late in 2008 campaign. Cajuns 12-5 overall against number since LY. ULL, based on team trends.

UL-MONROE at MIDDLE TENNESSEE...Home team has romped as these teams split last two meetings but other trends point to ULM, now 4-0 vs. line TY and 7-1 vs. spread last eight since late 2011. MTSU 3-10 vs. spread last 13 at home since 2010. ULM, based on recent trends

NORTH TEXAS at HOUSTON...UH 1-3 SU and vs. line for Tony Levine TY. Dan McCarney's UNT has covered its last four away from Denton vs. non-Belt foes. UNT, based on recent trends.

[StarDust Bum]

Pac-12 Report - Week 6

October 5, 2012

For the second consecutive week in the Pac-12, we have just four scheduled games Saturday, with Arizona State and Colorado resting their bumps and bruises. Southern California hit the road for Rice-Eccles Thursday night, and came away with a 38-28 win at Utah. The Utes pulled off a late backdoor fourth quarter cover, so hopefully you weren't burnt by that. If so, my condolences. Utah has burnt me a couple of times this season, so I shied away from making a selecting in that game, opting for a Sun Belt play instead.

Saturday - Washington at Oregon (ESPN, 10:30 p.m. ET)
Matchup Five-Star Game

After Washington's stunning 17-13 upset of Stanford in their last game Sept. 27, the Huskies find themselves in the Top 25. Remember, though, that before the victory over the Cardinal, this is a team which barely slid by San Diego State in their opener, before being clobbered 41-3 on the road at LSU. Sure, they smoked Portland State Sept. 15, but don't put too much credence into a pounding of a FCS team. Now, they get a crack at a heavyweight, and this one could turn ugly. Huskies RB Bishop Sankey came up big against Stanford, rolling for 144 yards and a TD. He has acclimated to a starting role well after Jesse Callier (knee) went down to a torn ACL in the opener. The Ducks can score early and often, but they've been far from impressive against the spread. They are just 1-4 ATS this season, that lone cover coming in a 49-0 pasting of Arizona at home. The other games Oregon had well in hand, but they took their foot off the gas peddle, allowing second half covers. Last season, the Ducks barely covered a 16.5-point number in Seattle, winning 34-17. Washington is 0-5 ATS in their past five road games, and 1-5 ATS in their past six against teams with a winning record. However, the Ducks are just 2-6-2 ATS in their past 10 home games, and 1-3-1 ATS in their past five Pac-12 battles. The big numbers, though, are that the favorite is 10-1-1 ATS in their past 12 meetings in this border war, and the Huskies are 0-7-1 ATS in their past eight meetings with Oregon, and 0-4-1 ATS in their past five trips to Eugene.

Saturday - UCLA at California (Pac-12 Network, 10:00 p.m. ET)
Matchup Four-Star Game

The Bruins are 2-0 on the road this season, and the public is ALL OVER them. Cal is 1-4 SU and ATS, winning at home against Southern Utah, and covering at Ohio State Sept. 15. The Bears haven't been terrible, however, hanging with USC in the Coliseum two weeks ago in a 27-9 setback. Cal has shown some spurts of brilliance, but they'll need to contain RB Johnathan Franklin and the UCLA running game if they're to keep the Bruins within their sights. Now, UCLA hasn't won in Berkeley since 1998, and they have been outscored 222-129 during that span. But this is a different UCLA, and a different Cal, right? The Bruins are 4-1 ATS in their past five games, while we mentioned Cal's woes. In this series, however, the home team is 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings, while the Bruins are 2-5 ATS in their past seven trips to Cal. UCLA 'should' be able to tame the Bears, and you should be able to get a number of less than three. If so, the Bruins are well worth the risk. They are the better team, but Cal does have history on its side.

Saturday - Arizona at Stanford (FOX, 3:00 p.m. ET)
Matchup Three-Star Game

It's a noon time kick (local time) at Palo Alto, as the Cardinal look to pick themselves off the mat after a stunning upset at Washington last time out. They'll face a Wildcats team that is 0-1 in their only road game this season, getting rolled 49-0 at Oregon two weeks ago. The Wildcats are 2-3 ATS this season, and 1-4 ATS in their past five road games. Meanwhile, the Cardinal are 12-3-1 ATS in their past 16 conference games, and 22-8 ATS in their past 30 games at home. In addition, Stanford is 4-1 ATS in their past five home games against Arizona. It appears that Stanford is the play. The trends on the over/under are a little less clear. The over is 12-5 in Arizona's past 17 conference games, and 9-4 overall. For Stanford, the under is 27-13 in their past 40 games in the month of October. The under is also 4-1 in the past five meetings in this series in Palo Alto, and 6-2 in the past eight meetings overall. The total screams stay away.

Saturday - Washington State at Oregon State (Pac-12 Network, 6:00 p.m. ET)
Matchup Two-Star Game

All Oregon State does is win, win, win, no matter what. And they cover, too. Not only are the Beavs 3-0 SU this season, but they are 3-0 ATS. They return to Corvallis to play just their second game of the season at Reser Stadium, and the place should be rocking. Washington State comes to town, and they'll be looking for their first win since Sept. 14 at UNLV. The Cougs lost 51-26 against Oregon last time out, but at least they covered. However, that was their first cover of the year (1-3-1) this season. Washington State is 1-4-1 ATS in their past six games overall and 0-3-1 ATS in their past four road games. Oregon State, meanwhile, is 3-0-1 ATS in their past four games against Pac-12 opponents, and 4-0-1 ATS in their past five games overall. The over has cashed in three straight WaZu games, and is 4-1 in their past five conference games overall. The over is also 7-3 in the past 10 meetings between these sides. Lastly, Washington State is 2-10 ATS in their past 12 meetings with Oregon State, but the road team is 5-1 ATS in the past six meetings.

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SEC Showdowns

October 5, 2012


On a Saturday filled with intriguing games, we’ve chosen to highlight a pair of SEC showdowns that will go a long way towards determining who makes it to the Georgia Dome on the first weekend of December.

Let’s start in Gainesville, where Florida (4-0 straight up, 3-1 against the spread) will take on LSU at 3:30 p.m. Eastern on CBS. As of Friday afternoon, most books were listing the Tigers as 2 ½-point favorites with a total of 42. Gamblers can take the Gators on the money line for a plus-120 return (risk $100 to win $120).

Will Muschamp’s team has wins vs. Bowling Green (27-14), at Texas A&M (20-17), at Tennessee (37-20) and vs. Kentucky (38-0). Florida has the benefit of two weeks to prepare following last week’s open date.

We knew Florida was going to have a stout defense this season. The major concern coming into Muschamp’s second year was the offense, particularly the quarterback position. Muschamp made the decision to name sophomore Jeff Driskel as the starter going into the Week 2 game in College Station.

The right choice was made. Driskel has completed 55-of-79 passes (69.6%) for 698 yards with a 4/1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He’s also an excellent scrambler, as evidenced by 148 rushing yards and one TD.

Florida senior running back Mike Gillislee is second in the SEC in rushing yards (402). He has run for five touchdowns and is averaging 5.8 yards per carry.

Florida junior linebacker Jelani Jenkins, a three-year starter, is set to return for the first time since breaking his thumb in the first half of the win at Texas A&M. CB Cody Riggs remains ‘out’ with a broken foot.

LSU (5-0 SU, 2-3 ATS) began the season in the top slot of my Power Rankings but it has dropped to No. 3 due to a few lackluster performances. The Tigers have wins vs. North Texas (41-14), vs. Washington (41-3) vs. Idaho (63-14), at Auburn (12-10) and vs. Towson (38-22).

LSU is four-deep at the tailback position, but Kenny Hilliard has emerged as the go-to guy. Hilliard, the nephew of LSU great Dalton Hilliard, has rushed for a team-high 366 yards and six touchdowns on 53 carries. He’s averaging 6.9 YPC.

Zack Mettenberger is completing 65.5 percent of his throws for 1,014 yards with a 6/2 TD-INT ratio. Odell Beckham Jr. has been Mettenberger’s favorite target, hauling in 16 receptions for 286 yards and two TDs.

Florida hasn’t covered the spread as a home underdog since its 32-29 win over FSU as a six-point home ‘dog in 1997. Since then, the Gators are 0-4 ATS when catching points at home.

During Les Miles’s eight-year tenure, LSU has compiled a 12-8-2 spread record in 22 games as a road favorite.

When these teams met last season in Baton Rouge, UF had to go with true freshman Jacoby Brissett as its starting quarterback. Brissett had never before taken a snap at the collegiate level. LSU predictably cruised to a 41-11 win as a 13 ½-point home favorite.

The Tigers are looking for their third straight win over the Gators, who lost a 33-29 decision to LSU as 6 ½-point home favorites at The Swamp in 2010

The ‘under’ is 3-1 overall for UF, 2-0 in its home games. Totals have been an overall wash (2-2) for LSU this year, but the ‘under’ cashed in its lone road assignment at Auburn. The ‘over’ is 4-1 in the last five head-to-head meetings between these schools.

**Georgia at South Carolina**

Most sports books opened South Carolina as a 2 ½-point favorite for Saturday’s crucial SEC East showdown against Georgia. The total for ‘over/under’ wagers started at 57.

On Monday and early Tuesday, the line bounced around from 2 ½ to 3. By late Tuesday night, many spots had moved the Gamecocks to two-point favorites.

Then on Wednesday, Georgia announced that leading receiver Michael Bennett tore his ACL at Tuesday’s practice and would be out for the rest of the season. Bennett had a team-high 24 receptions for 345 yards and four touchdowns.

Nevertheless, by late Wednesday morning, South Carolina was reduced to a 1 ½-point favorite. The steady decline of the line continued on Thursday when most books moved USC to a one-point ‘chalk.’

The total has also come down as the week has progressed. On Tuesday, a surge of ‘under’ bets prompted betting shops to first adjust to 56 before going down to 55 by early evening. Then on Wednesday, the number dropped to 54 before settling at 53 ½ where it remained as of Friday morning.

South Carolina (5-0 SU, 4-1 ATS) predictably came out flat last week at Kentucky, falling behind 17-7 at halftime. But the Gamecocks outscored UK 31-0 in the second half and actually covered the number in a 38-17 win as 20-point favorites.

Marcus Lattimore finished with 23 carries for 120 rushing yards and two touchdowns. Connor Shaw completed 15-of-18 passes for 148 yards and two TDs without an interception. Shaw also rushed for 76 yards on 19 totes.

Lattimore is sixth in the SEC in rushing yards (440) and second in rushing touchdowns with eight. Shaw has connected on 50-of-64 passes (78.1%) for 571 yards with a 5/2 TD-INT ratio. He has also rushed for 203 yards, averaging 4.1 YPC.

Georgia (5-0 SU, 2-3 ATS) is coming off a 51-44 win over Tennessee as a 14-point home favorite. Freshman RB Keith Marshall exploded for 164 rushing yards and two TDs on just 10 carries. Todd Gurley rushed 24 times for 130 yards and three TDs.

UGA junior QB Aaron Murray connected on 19-of-25 passes for 278 yards and two TDs. However, Murray threw a pick-six and also coughed up a fumble that the Volunteers recovered at the enemy nine yard line.

For the season, Murray has completed 68.2 percent of his passes for 1,370 yards with a 12/3 TD-INT ratio. Murray won’t have the services of leading receiver Michael Bennett, who was lost for the season when he tore his ACL at Tuesday’s practice. Bennett had a team-high 24 catches for 345 yards and four TDs.

Gurley leads the SEC in rushing yards (536) and rushing TDs (nine), averaging 7.9 YPC. Marshall has rushed for 428 yards and five scores, averaging 9.2 YPC. (Can you say good riddance to Isaiah Crowell?!)

South Carolina owns a 20-13 spread record during Spurrier’s eight-year tenure. As for the Bulldogs, they are 9-7 ATS as road underdogs on Richt’s watch.

The ‘over’ is perfect 5-0 for UGA. South Carolina has seen the ‘over’ go 3-2 overall, 2-1 in its home games.

The ‘under’ has cashed at an incredible 13-2 clip in the last 15 head-to-head meetings between USC and UGA.

Kickoff is scheduled for 7:00 p.m. Eastern on ESPN.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

--Shaw has as many incompletions (four) as TD passes (four) in the last two games.

--Wake Forest lost its best player in last week’s loss to Duke, as junior WR Michael Campanaro sustained a hand injury. He’s expected to miss 3-4 weeks. Campanaro had 73 catches in 2011. He had already made 38 catches for 428 yards and three TDs so far this year. The Demon Deacons are seven-point underdogs Saturday at Maryland.

--Before Southern Cal’s loss to Stanford on Sept. 15, Sportsbook.ag had QB Matt Barkley as the even-money favorite to win the Heisman Trophy. On Monday, the offshore website had WVU’s Geno Smith as the even-money ‘chalk’ to win the Heisman. After a few days of taking action on Smith, Sportsbook has adjusted him to the minus-125 favorite (risk $125 to win $100). The second-shortest odds belong to FSU’s E.J. Manuel (+350).

--Missouri suspended five freshman players on Thursday following a pot bust that resulted in the arrests of three players. Most notably, WR Dorial Green-Beckham was among the players suspended. Several recruiting services ranked ‘DGB’ as the nation’s No. 1 recruit last year. He hasn’t had as much of an impact as expected, though. Green-Beckham has only seven catches for 128 yards and one touchdown.

--TCU quarterback Casey Pachall has been suspended indefinitely following his Wednesday night arrest for suspicion of driving while intoxicated. This is a huge loss for the Horned Frogs, who host Iowa St. on Saturday. Pachall had 10 touchdown passes compared to only one interception so far this year.

[StarDust Bum]

Pittsburgh visits Syracuse on Friday night

PITTSBURGH PANTHERS (2-2)
at SYRACUSE ORANGE (1-3)

Kickoff: Friday, 7:00 p.m. EDT
Line: Pittsburgh -1½, Total: 57½

A pair of Big East schools bound for the ACC lock horns on Friday night when Pittsburgh visits Syracuse.

The Panthers have won seven straight meetings (5-2 ATS) with the Orange, and were able to force six Syracuse turnovers in last year’s 33-20 win. Pittsburgh was outscored 65-27 in its first two games of 2012, but beat Virginia Tech and Gardner-Webb by a combined 90-27 score in its two most recent games. Tino Sunseri, who threw four touchdowns in his last trip to the Carrier Dome, has tossed 6 TD passes during the two-game win streak. The Orange have lost eight straight games (1-7 ATS) to FBS opponents, but QB Ryan Nassib ranks eighth in the nation with 360 total YPG.

Who will win this final Big East battle between the schools? For the answer, connect to The Platinum Sheet for all the ******* Experts picks for every key college football game throughout the 2012 season.

Sunseri leads the Big East in passing efficiency (166.80), completing 67.2% of his passes for 1,144 yards, 8 TD and 2 INT. He has also been very accurate in two career starts against the Orange, connecting on 42-of-58 passes (72.4%) for 540 yards, 5 TD and 1 INT. RB Ray Graham was unable to play in last year’s meeting with Syracuse, but had a solid performance in his previous visit to the Carrier Dome, gaining 75 yards and a touchdown on just 14 touches (11 carries, 3 catches). In his past three games in 2012, Graham has racked up 382 yards and four touchdowns. Pittsburgh’s defense has also been a big part of the current win streak, holding Virginia Tech to 59 rushing yards on 26 carries, then limiting Gardner-Webb to 127 total yards and forcing seven turnovers.

Syracuse has been very careless with the football this season, committing nine turnovers in its three defeats, including four miscues in last week’s loss at Minnesota. The Orange running game has also been underwhelming in 2012, gaining just 381 yards on 104 carries (3.7 YPC). Nassib has already thrown for 10 TD this season, but is coming off a subpar game against the Gophers, completing 21-of-31 passes for 228 yards, 1 TD and 2 INT. WR Marcus Sales also had his worst game of the 2012 season against the Gophers, catching just two passes for 32 yards, but extending his scoring streak to four games. Sales started his season with three straight 100-yard efforts. Syracuse’s defense failed to force a turnover last week for the first time in 2012, but held the Gophers to 17 points, 337 total yards and 2.6 yards per carry. Last year, the Panthers (minus Ray Graham) rushed for a paltry 74 yards on 35 carries (2.1 YPC) in the win over the Orange.

[StarDust Bum]

NCAAF
Armadillo's Write-Up

Week 6

Friday's games
Pitt-Syracuse are both heading to ACC next year; Panthers won seven in a row against Orange (5-2 vs spread), but its hard to tell lot about them, since two of their four games are vs I-AA teams- they split vs Cincinnati and Va Tech. Since 2006, Panthers are 9-4 as road favorites. Syracuse is 0-3 vs I-A teams, with only win a shaky 28-17 decision vs Stony Brook; Orangemen are 4-14-1 vs spread in last 19 games as home dog, 4-6-1 in Marrone era. Nationwide, conference home dogs are 14-15 against the spread. Both teams have experienced senior quarterbacks.

BYU won 11 of last 12 games vs Utah State but Aggies covered last four series games. Cougars are playing third straight weeknight game- they're 3-2, with losses by combined total of 4 points. BYU is 9-4 in its last 13 games as a home favorite, 2-0 this year. Utah State is 4-1 with only loss 16-14 at Wisconsin, so they're much improved- they outgained Badgers by 74 yards. Aggies are 12-2 as road underdogs under Andersen. BYU's losses are to Boise State (7-6), Utah (24-21); they haven't beaten a good team yet. WAC underdogs are 7-5 vs spread in non-conference games.