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Where the action is: NCAAF Week 2 line moves
Tracking line moves through the first few weeks of the college football season is like being haunted by a poltergeist. The line moved, we saw it move, but no one was really there to move it.
The sharp money thrives at this time of year, swooping in with limit bets on games between programs at either end of the power rankings, forcing books to suddenly adjust the numbers for even the most mundane matchup and leaving the rest of us to ask, "Who the hell is betting that game?".
We talk to Jeff Stoneback, sportsbook manager at the MGM Mirage, about the biggest line moves on the Week 2 board:
North Carolina Tar Heels at Wake Forest Demon Deacons – Open +6.5, Currently: +10.5
This ACC matchup has moved four points at some books with both UNC and Wake Forest coming off victories over FCS opponents. However, the Heels’ 62-0 smashing of Elon was much more impressive than the Deacons’ near miss versus Liberty.
“We’ve only taken two wagers on Wake Forest,” Stoneback told Covers. “The rest of the bets have been limit plays on North Carolina.”
Michigan State Spartans at Central Michigan Chippewas – Open: +23.5, Currently: +19.5
The MAC has become a very popular conference for the wiseguys during the early part of the schedule. Stoneback says, over the past few years, sharp money has made MAC games some of the biggest decisions for sportsbooks and this instate rivalry is no different, moving as many as four points at some markets.
“Michigan State might be primed for a letdown after that big win over Boise State,” says Stoneback. “Their offense didn’t look great and they rely on the running game, which keeps the clock running and scores down. It’s tough to cover 20 points like that.”
Florida Gators at Texas A&M Aggies – Open: -2.5, Currently +1
The line has flipped on the Aggies in their SEC debut, going from as high as 2.5-point home favorites to 1-point underdogs. The Mirage opened Texas A&M -1.5 and instantly took a limit play on UF plus the points.
The Gators didn’t look all too sharp in Week 1 but at least they got to play. Texas A&M was scheduled to face Louisiana Tech but it was postponed due to Hurricane Isaac.
“The Gators have a game under their belts and still have the better athletes, even though they struggled last week,” Stoneback says. “This is a ‘Welcome to the SEC Game’ for A&M.”
Idaho Vandals at Bowling Green Falcons – Open: -12.5, Currently: -17
This spread has moved as many as 4.5 points at some sportsbooks, with bettors fading the Vandals after their upset loss to FCS big gun Eastern Washington in Week 1. On top of that, the Falcons gave Florida all they had, losing 27-14 as 28-point underdogs.
“That’s your line move right there,” Stoneback says of each team’s Week 1 effort. “No one is playing this one but the wiseguys.”
Tracking line moves through the first few weeks of the college football season is like being haunted by a poltergeist. The line moved, we saw it move, but no one was really there to move it.
The sharp money thrives at this time of year, swooping in with limit bets on games between programs at either end of the power rankings, forcing books to suddenly adjust the numbers for even the most mundane matchup and leaving the rest of us to ask, "Who the hell is betting that game?".
We talk to Jeff Stoneback, sportsbook manager at the MGM Mirage, about the biggest line moves on the Week 2 board:
North Carolina Tar Heels at Wake Forest Demon Deacons – Open +6.5, Currently: +10.5
This ACC matchup has moved four points at some books with both UNC and Wake Forest coming off victories over FCS opponents. However, the Heels’ 62-0 smashing of Elon was much more impressive than the Deacons’ near miss versus Liberty.
“We’ve only taken two wagers on Wake Forest,” Stoneback told Covers. “The rest of the bets have been limit plays on North Carolina.”
Michigan State Spartans at Central Michigan Chippewas – Open: +23.5, Currently: +19.5
The MAC has become a very popular conference for the wiseguys during the early part of the schedule. Stoneback says, over the past few years, sharp money has made MAC games some of the biggest decisions for sportsbooks and this instate rivalry is no different, moving as many as four points at some markets.
“Michigan State might be primed for a letdown after that big win over Boise State,” says Stoneback. “Their offense didn’t look great and they rely on the running game, which keeps the clock running and scores down. It’s tough to cover 20 points like that.”
Florida Gators at Texas A&M Aggies – Open: -2.5, Currently +1
The line has flipped on the Aggies in their SEC debut, going from as high as 2.5-point home favorites to 1-point underdogs. The Mirage opened Texas A&M -1.5 and instantly took a limit play on UF plus the points.
The Gators didn’t look all too sharp in Week 1 but at least they got to play. Texas A&M was scheduled to face Louisiana Tech but it was postponed due to Hurricane Isaac.
“The Gators have a game under their belts and still have the better athletes, even though they struggled last week,” Stoneback says. “This is a ‘Welcome to the SEC Game’ for A&M.”
Idaho Vandals at Bowling Green Falcons – Open: -12.5, Currently: -17
This spread has moved as many as 4.5 points at some sportsbooks, with bettors fading the Vandals after their upset loss to FCS big gun Eastern Washington in Week 1. On top of that, the Falcons gave Florida all they had, losing 27-14 as 28-point underdogs.
“That’s your line move right there,” Stoneback says of each team’s Week 1 effort. “No one is playing this one but the wiseguys.”
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