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Broncos & Chargers Separate From AFC West Pack
The passing of Al Davis has led to a brand new look for the Raiders in 2012.
Although most of the offseason storylines out of the AFC West originated in Denver, there are indeed no shortage of intriguing headlines to follow throughout the division as the 2012 regular season prepares to commence in September.
Of course, the Broncos dominated the news cycles with their acquisition of Peyton Manning and subsequent trade of Tim Tebow prior the last April’s NFL Draft. More on that in a moment.
But it’s worth remembering that there was a razor-thin margin between the four teams last season, the likes of which we had never seen in the post-merger NFL. Three teams (Denver, San Diego, and Oakland) finished the 2011 campaign at 8-8; the Chiefs were just a step behind at 7-9. The Broncos’ division championship was only achieved after several steps of the tiebreaker formula which ended up putting Denver on top, the Chargers second and Raiders third...important for 2012 scheduling purposes.
Yet, even the acquisition of Manning has not separated the Broncos from the division pack, at least according to Las Vegas oddsmakers. At best, Denver is being priced as a co-favorite along with the Chargers to win the division, though at this writing the majority of Nevada wagering outlets have San Diego at 8/5 to win the division and the Broncos close behind at 9/5.
Suggesting that another four-team photo finish is unlikely this fall, most Las Vegas sports books are pricing division win odds on the Chiefs (mostly at 4/1) and Raiders (hovering in the 11/2 range) significantly higher.
A quick preview of each side is in order. Season total-win prices are included with the analysis.
Denver Broncos (season win total 9)
Of course, the addition of Peyton Manning was the buzz in the Rockies and throughout the NFL in the offseason, although more intrigue than usual accompanies this move. That’s because Manning is now 36 years old and off of a serious neck injury that required multiple surgeries last year and kept him out of the entirety of the campaign with the Colts.
Moreover, the departed Tebow, unorthodox as his style might have been, was nonetheless an extremely positive force, as the Broncos amazingly found a winning formula when adapting their offense around Tebow’s limitations. Those sorts of dynamics are going to be hard to replicate this fall.
The offense that Manning will orchestrate should look a lot like the Colt versions he piloted over the past several years: lots of no-huddle, timing routes, dump-offs to backs and liberal use of tight ends.
Expect a young receiving corps to flourish with Manning firing his customary darts. Third-year wideouts Demaryius Thomas and Erik Decker have flashed plenty of upside, and if each can stay healthy could post monster numbers, with Decker already establishing a nice rapport with Manning in the early days of training camp.
A young and talented offensive line, led by All-Pro LT Ryan Clady, provides a nice fortress. Among the rookies, San Diego State RB Ronnie Hillman is expected to make significant contributions after vet Willis McGahee wore down late in 2011 and Knowshon Moreno battled through more injuries. Place-kicker Matt Prater is also a weapon, having won a pair of OT games last fall on 50+-yard field goals vs. the Dolphins and Bears.
There is concern, however, about depth behind Manning, with Tebow and last year’s other QB options – Kyle Orton, who was released before the end of 2011, and Brady Quinn – having left town. As cover for Manning, all head coach John Fox has at the moment are ex-Bears journeyman Caleb Hanie and Arizona State rookie Brock Osweiler, a second-round pick and considered strictly a developmental project until further notice.
Lost amid Tebow-mania last fall was an improved defensive effort spearheaded by impact sorts such as undersized DE Elvis Dumervil (who missed the entirety of the previous 2010 campaign due to injury) and Texas A&M rookie LB Von Miller, who proved a revelation from the edge. New defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio, who was Jacksonville’s head coach the last nine seasons, has only had to tweak the platoon instead of overhauling it.
With a healthy Manning, however, the Broncos would seem a good bet to clear nine wins.
San Diego Chargers (season win total 9)
As mentioned, Peyton Manning is hardly the only storyline in this season’s AFC West. Head coach Norv Turner’s future in San Diego similarly intrigues.
Indeed, like a cat, Turner seems intent on using up all of his allotted nine coaching lives. We'll never know if more dynamic leadership over the past five seasons would have reaped more than the Chargers have sown since 2007, but it is a fair question to ask.
Most NFL insiders acknowledge that Norv's strength is as a coordinator and offensive game-planner; he is too introverted and passive to provide the fire-and-brimstone angle, one the Bolts could have used the past few years. San Diego's motivation usually comes from within the player ranks, and it annually seems to manifest only after the many slow starts the Chargers have endured under Turner.
Now the talent gap, so overwhelming in San Diego's favor against AFC West opposition the past several years, has dissipated.
Only once in the "Norv years" have the Chargers really hit their stride, and that was in 2009 when they wasted their best chance at the Super Bowl with a flat playoff effort vs. the beatable Jets and their rookie QB. The Chargers have spent most of the past five years struggling to reach .500 under Turner; imagine what success Philip Rivers & Co. might have had with a coach like Bill Cowher running the show.
Now, Rivers seems to be regressing (as his 20 interceptions last year would indicate), top downfield target Vincent Jackson left via free agency, and the defense is full of holes that need to be plugged after conceding an NFL-worst 49 percent conversions on third downs last season. Moreover, the Chargers have missed the playoffs the past two seasons in arguably the NFL's weakest division.
Whatever made owner Dean Spanos decide to keep Turner for another year after last season's 8-8 finish escapes us; if there were ever an NFL situation that demanded a coaching change, it was San Diego's after last season. Charger fans cannot say they haven't been forewarned; those who want to look 'over' those nine wins do so at their own peril.
Kansas City Chiefs (season win total 8)
Another interesting storyline in the West is at Arrowhead, where former defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel turned a late-season audition a year ago as a full-time gig as the Chiefs’ head coach.
Crennel, of course, flamed out a few years ago as Cleveland’s coach, one of several Bill Belichick disciples who have not exactly set the world on fire in their head coaching endeavors. Perhaps Crennel, a defensive expert but hardly Bill Walsh when it comes to offense, learned something from the Cleveland adventure.
Sources say Crennel, a noted straight-shooter, at least has the respect of the team clubhouse, which didn’t always afford the same to predecessor Todd Haley.
Crennel, however, will be utilizing the franchise’s fourth different offensive coordinator in as many years, with ex-Dolphins coach Brian Daboll now stewarding the strike force. Daboll will hopefully have better luck on the injury front than a year ago when maladies knocked the likes of QB Matt Cassel, RB Jamaal Charles and TE Tony Moeaki out of the box.
Crennel, whose conservative nature suggests he would probably be comfortable with Antonin Scalia as his offensive coordinator, will no doubt approve of Daboll’s new-look strike force that will be run-oriented and often feature double-tight end alignments. The free-agent additions of ultra-physical RB Peyton Hillis and TE Kevin Boss are indicative of the type of power-based offense Daboll will be looking to implement.
Mostly, Crennel desires that infantry diversion as a means to effectively set up play-action for Cassel, who could benefit from that extra tick of time in the pocket to scan the field.
Crennel will continue to act as his own defensive coordinator and will no doubt benefit from the healthy return to action of SS Eric Berry, another of those KO’d by injury a year ago. The addition of first-round draft choice Dontari Poe, a run-stuffing DT from Memphis, will hopefully help to shore up a soft spot on last year’s K.C. stop unit that ranked in the bottom quartile (in 26th spot) in NFL rush defense stats last season.
Crennel, however, never coached a Cleveland team to a winning record, so assuming the Chiefs can exceed eight wins seems a bit of a reach.
Oakland Raiders (season win total 7)
Afforded less fanfare than such an overhaul would normally suggest, the Raiders will have a completely different look this fall in the wake of sweeping front office and sideline adjustments following the passing of franchise supremo Al Davis.
With Al’s son Mark now calling the shots for the organization, there were changes aplenty in the offseason, with a new GM (ex-Raider player and recent Green Bay asst. GM Reggie McKenzie) and head coach (Dennis Allen, most recently Denver’s defensive coordinator) enlisted.
Hue Jackson, under whom the Raiders seemed destined to make the playoffs for much of last season, was pink-slipped after just one season in charge as head coach.
McKenzie seems intent on building a Packers’-like structure in Oakland, with a clear delineation between his duties and those of Allen. Green Bay was also a reluctant participant in free agency, instead preferring to build through the draft, a direction we expect the McKenzie Raiders to eventually pursue.
McKenzie, however, had little to work with in the April draft, with the Raiders minus a first-round pick (surrendered to the Bengals in the Carson Palmer trade) and without a selection until the 95th pick overall, late in the third round. McKenzie instead spent much of the offseason purging some of Al’s big contracts from the roster, while working on the periphery of free-agency and adding a few modestly-priced vets.
McKenzie also altered the offensive mix, letting former QB Jason Campbell and RB Michael Bush both walk in free agency. Campbell’s departure puts extra pressure on Palmer to stay healthy, with disappointing ex-Heisman winner and free agent signee Matt Leinart the only experienced cover for Palmer on the roster.
New offensive coordinator Greg Knapp, the Texans’ QB coach the past two seasons, will implement a new-look West Coast-style package as well and will also be reinstalling the zone blocking schemes last used in Oakland when Knapp was working for Lane Kiffin’s regime in 2007-08.
Palmer showed he could still fire away despite being thrown into the lineup cold just a couple of days after signing with the team in mid-October. The adjustments-on-the-fly partly accounted for the poor TD/interception ratio (13/16), but when Palmer had time to set and scan the field, he often looked as good as he did in his best Cincinnati years.
With Bush gone to Chicago, however, extra pressure will be on RB Darren McFadden (who played in only seven games due to injuries last year) to stay healthy. Place kicker Sebastian Janikowski remains the default offensive option, a threat to salvage at least three points whenever the Silver & Black cross midfield.
New defensive coordinator Jason Tarver, hired from Stanford, was authorized by Allen to junk the old Raider defense and implement multiple 4-3 looks that can hopefully better highlight a deep and disruptive group of linemen featuring DT Richard Seymour and DE Lamarr Houston. Upgrades in the secondary, however, will be required for the “D” to show any marked improvement from last year.
With so many changes and a first-time NFL head coach in Allen, projecting anything over seven wins appears a bit risky.
TEAM
DIVISION
NFC
SUPER BOWL
Denver Broncos
9/5
17/2
20/1
Kansas City Chiefs
4/1
25/1
50/1
Oakland Raiders
11/2
35/1
80/1
San Diego Chargers
8/5
12/1
25/1
The passing of Al Davis has led to a brand new look for the Raiders in 2012.
Although most of the offseason storylines out of the AFC West originated in Denver, there are indeed no shortage of intriguing headlines to follow throughout the division as the 2012 regular season prepares to commence in September.
Of course, the Broncos dominated the news cycles with their acquisition of Peyton Manning and subsequent trade of Tim Tebow prior the last April’s NFL Draft. More on that in a moment.
But it’s worth remembering that there was a razor-thin margin between the four teams last season, the likes of which we had never seen in the post-merger NFL. Three teams (Denver, San Diego, and Oakland) finished the 2011 campaign at 8-8; the Chiefs were just a step behind at 7-9. The Broncos’ division championship was only achieved after several steps of the tiebreaker formula which ended up putting Denver on top, the Chargers second and Raiders third...important for 2012 scheduling purposes.
Yet, even the acquisition of Manning has not separated the Broncos from the division pack, at least according to Las Vegas oddsmakers. At best, Denver is being priced as a co-favorite along with the Chargers to win the division, though at this writing the majority of Nevada wagering outlets have San Diego at 8/5 to win the division and the Broncos close behind at 9/5.
Suggesting that another four-team photo finish is unlikely this fall, most Las Vegas sports books are pricing division win odds on the Chiefs (mostly at 4/1) and Raiders (hovering in the 11/2 range) significantly higher.
A quick preview of each side is in order. Season total-win prices are included with the analysis.
Denver Broncos (season win total 9)
Of course, the addition of Peyton Manning was the buzz in the Rockies and throughout the NFL in the offseason, although more intrigue than usual accompanies this move. That’s because Manning is now 36 years old and off of a serious neck injury that required multiple surgeries last year and kept him out of the entirety of the campaign with the Colts.
Moreover, the departed Tebow, unorthodox as his style might have been, was nonetheless an extremely positive force, as the Broncos amazingly found a winning formula when adapting their offense around Tebow’s limitations. Those sorts of dynamics are going to be hard to replicate this fall.
The offense that Manning will orchestrate should look a lot like the Colt versions he piloted over the past several years: lots of no-huddle, timing routes, dump-offs to backs and liberal use of tight ends.
Expect a young receiving corps to flourish with Manning firing his customary darts. Third-year wideouts Demaryius Thomas and Erik Decker have flashed plenty of upside, and if each can stay healthy could post monster numbers, with Decker already establishing a nice rapport with Manning in the early days of training camp.
A young and talented offensive line, led by All-Pro LT Ryan Clady, provides a nice fortress. Among the rookies, San Diego State RB Ronnie Hillman is expected to make significant contributions after vet Willis McGahee wore down late in 2011 and Knowshon Moreno battled through more injuries. Place-kicker Matt Prater is also a weapon, having won a pair of OT games last fall on 50+-yard field goals vs. the Dolphins and Bears.
There is concern, however, about depth behind Manning, with Tebow and last year’s other QB options – Kyle Orton, who was released before the end of 2011, and Brady Quinn – having left town. As cover for Manning, all head coach John Fox has at the moment are ex-Bears journeyman Caleb Hanie and Arizona State rookie Brock Osweiler, a second-round pick and considered strictly a developmental project until further notice.
Lost amid Tebow-mania last fall was an improved defensive effort spearheaded by impact sorts such as undersized DE Elvis Dumervil (who missed the entirety of the previous 2010 campaign due to injury) and Texas A&M rookie LB Von Miller, who proved a revelation from the edge. New defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio, who was Jacksonville’s head coach the last nine seasons, has only had to tweak the platoon instead of overhauling it.
With a healthy Manning, however, the Broncos would seem a good bet to clear nine wins.
San Diego Chargers (season win total 9)
As mentioned, Peyton Manning is hardly the only storyline in this season’s AFC West. Head coach Norv Turner’s future in San Diego similarly intrigues.
Indeed, like a cat, Turner seems intent on using up all of his allotted nine coaching lives. We'll never know if more dynamic leadership over the past five seasons would have reaped more than the Chargers have sown since 2007, but it is a fair question to ask.
Most NFL insiders acknowledge that Norv's strength is as a coordinator and offensive game-planner; he is too introverted and passive to provide the fire-and-brimstone angle, one the Bolts could have used the past few years. San Diego's motivation usually comes from within the player ranks, and it annually seems to manifest only after the many slow starts the Chargers have endured under Turner.
Now the talent gap, so overwhelming in San Diego's favor against AFC West opposition the past several years, has dissipated.
Only once in the "Norv years" have the Chargers really hit their stride, and that was in 2009 when they wasted their best chance at the Super Bowl with a flat playoff effort vs. the beatable Jets and their rookie QB. The Chargers have spent most of the past five years struggling to reach .500 under Turner; imagine what success Philip Rivers & Co. might have had with a coach like Bill Cowher running the show.
Now, Rivers seems to be regressing (as his 20 interceptions last year would indicate), top downfield target Vincent Jackson left via free agency, and the defense is full of holes that need to be plugged after conceding an NFL-worst 49 percent conversions on third downs last season. Moreover, the Chargers have missed the playoffs the past two seasons in arguably the NFL's weakest division.
Whatever made owner Dean Spanos decide to keep Turner for another year after last season's 8-8 finish escapes us; if there were ever an NFL situation that demanded a coaching change, it was San Diego's after last season. Charger fans cannot say they haven't been forewarned; those who want to look 'over' those nine wins do so at their own peril.
Kansas City Chiefs (season win total 8)
Another interesting storyline in the West is at Arrowhead, where former defensive coordinator Romeo Crennel turned a late-season audition a year ago as a full-time gig as the Chiefs’ head coach.
Crennel, of course, flamed out a few years ago as Cleveland’s coach, one of several Bill Belichick disciples who have not exactly set the world on fire in their head coaching endeavors. Perhaps Crennel, a defensive expert but hardly Bill Walsh when it comes to offense, learned something from the Cleveland adventure.
Sources say Crennel, a noted straight-shooter, at least has the respect of the team clubhouse, which didn’t always afford the same to predecessor Todd Haley.
Crennel, however, will be utilizing the franchise’s fourth different offensive coordinator in as many years, with ex-Dolphins coach Brian Daboll now stewarding the strike force. Daboll will hopefully have better luck on the injury front than a year ago when maladies knocked the likes of QB Matt Cassel, RB Jamaal Charles and TE Tony Moeaki out of the box.
Crennel, whose conservative nature suggests he would probably be comfortable with Antonin Scalia as his offensive coordinator, will no doubt approve of Daboll’s new-look strike force that will be run-oriented and often feature double-tight end alignments. The free-agent additions of ultra-physical RB Peyton Hillis and TE Kevin Boss are indicative of the type of power-based offense Daboll will be looking to implement.
Mostly, Crennel desires that infantry diversion as a means to effectively set up play-action for Cassel, who could benefit from that extra tick of time in the pocket to scan the field.
Crennel will continue to act as his own defensive coordinator and will no doubt benefit from the healthy return to action of SS Eric Berry, another of those KO’d by injury a year ago. The addition of first-round draft choice Dontari Poe, a run-stuffing DT from Memphis, will hopefully help to shore up a soft spot on last year’s K.C. stop unit that ranked in the bottom quartile (in 26th spot) in NFL rush defense stats last season.
Crennel, however, never coached a Cleveland team to a winning record, so assuming the Chiefs can exceed eight wins seems a bit of a reach.
Oakland Raiders (season win total 7)
Afforded less fanfare than such an overhaul would normally suggest, the Raiders will have a completely different look this fall in the wake of sweeping front office and sideline adjustments following the passing of franchise supremo Al Davis.
With Al’s son Mark now calling the shots for the organization, there were changes aplenty in the offseason, with a new GM (ex-Raider player and recent Green Bay asst. GM Reggie McKenzie) and head coach (Dennis Allen, most recently Denver’s defensive coordinator) enlisted.
Hue Jackson, under whom the Raiders seemed destined to make the playoffs for much of last season, was pink-slipped after just one season in charge as head coach.
McKenzie seems intent on building a Packers’-like structure in Oakland, with a clear delineation between his duties and those of Allen. Green Bay was also a reluctant participant in free agency, instead preferring to build through the draft, a direction we expect the McKenzie Raiders to eventually pursue.
McKenzie, however, had little to work with in the April draft, with the Raiders minus a first-round pick (surrendered to the Bengals in the Carson Palmer trade) and without a selection until the 95th pick overall, late in the third round. McKenzie instead spent much of the offseason purging some of Al’s big contracts from the roster, while working on the periphery of free-agency and adding a few modestly-priced vets.
McKenzie also altered the offensive mix, letting former QB Jason Campbell and RB Michael Bush both walk in free agency. Campbell’s departure puts extra pressure on Palmer to stay healthy, with disappointing ex-Heisman winner and free agent signee Matt Leinart the only experienced cover for Palmer on the roster.
New offensive coordinator Greg Knapp, the Texans’ QB coach the past two seasons, will implement a new-look West Coast-style package as well and will also be reinstalling the zone blocking schemes last used in Oakland when Knapp was working for Lane Kiffin’s regime in 2007-08.
Palmer showed he could still fire away despite being thrown into the lineup cold just a couple of days after signing with the team in mid-October. The adjustments-on-the-fly partly accounted for the poor TD/interception ratio (13/16), but when Palmer had time to set and scan the field, he often looked as good as he did in his best Cincinnati years.
With Bush gone to Chicago, however, extra pressure will be on RB Darren McFadden (who played in only seven games due to injuries last year) to stay healthy. Place kicker Sebastian Janikowski remains the default offensive option, a threat to salvage at least three points whenever the Silver & Black cross midfield.
New defensive coordinator Jason Tarver, hired from Stanford, was authorized by Allen to junk the old Raider defense and implement multiple 4-3 looks that can hopefully better highlight a deep and disruptive group of linemen featuring DT Richard Seymour and DE Lamarr Houston. Upgrades in the secondary, however, will be required for the “D” to show any marked improvement from last year.
With so many changes and a first-time NFL head coach in Allen, projecting anything over seven wins appears a bit risky.
TEAM
DIVISION
NFC
SUPER BOWL
Denver Broncos
9/5
17/2
20/1
Kansas City Chiefs
4/1
25/1
50/1
Oakland Raiders
11/2
35/1
80/1
San Diego Chargers
8/5
12/1
25/1
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