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**StarDust Bum** · 07-21-2012, 03:56 PM

Future Is Now For Lovie Smith And Bears

Following is the next in our early, 'pre-preseason' NFL team previews as we take a look at the Chicago Bears.

Jay Cutler’s critics have been keeping rather quiet in the offseason. Anyone who has watched the Bears without 'Midway Jay' the past two years would suddenly have a new-found appreciation for the ex-Vanderbilt gunslinger for something other than actress Kristin Cavallari, Cutler’s fiancé.

Indeed, Chicago’s season went up in flames last fall when Cutler was sidelined by a thumb injury in a late-season win over the Chargers. The Bears, who in late November seemed at least ticketed for NFC wild card duties, lost five straight after Cutler went down, dropping from postseason consideration until winning a meaningless finale at Minnesota.

Still, Cutler’s injury wasn’t enough of an excuse for GM Jerry Angelo to keep his job. After 13 years, Angelo is out and former Bears scout Phil Emery is in as the new GM.

Head coach Lovie Smith survived the purge after 2011, but it can be assumed that his head is on the chopping block, too, unless the Bears get back to the postseason. Offensive coordinator Mike Martz left town after last season as well, replaced by former Vikings head coach Mike Tice.

Good news for Lovie and Tice is that Emery was able to restock the Bears’ offensive arsenal in the offseason. On the surface, adding tempestuous WR Brandon Marshall from the Dolphins might seem a dangerous gamble. But Marshall and Cutler had great rapport from their brief time together in Denver, and if Marshall behaves himself, the Bears have their first big-time wideout in the Cutler era. South Carolina draftee Alshon Jeffery could also make an immediate impact in what might be a much-upgraded Bears receiving corps.

Also, adding ex-Redskin and Raider starting QB Jason Campbell provides a much better relief option than Caleb Hanie should Cutler go down again in the fall.

Emery also added backfield cover for workhorse RB Matt Forte with punishing ex-Raider Michael Bush, who provides a nice change-of-pace and should limit the wear-and-tear on Forte.

Tice’s “vertical power game” will also feature fewer five-and-seven step drops that made Cutler too much of a target in the Martz offense. With an emphasis on shorter drops and quicker releases (all well within Cutler’s comfort range), 'Midway Jay' ought to receive less of a beating, at least in theory, than the past two years in the Martz offense.

The Tice offense is also seen as a better fit for an offensive line that likely enters the fall in something of an adjustment phase. Keeping RT Gabe Carimi, perhaps Chicago’s best lineman, healthy after he missed all but two games due to a knee injury last fall, will be key.

Meanwhile, Lovie’s defense still has an aging look about it, but that collection of 30-year-old + types on the stop unit proved they had some gas left in their tanks a year ago. a rebuilding stage. Oldsters DE Julius Peppers, LBs Brian Urlacher and Lance Briggs plus CB Charles Tillman, all on the other side of 30, qualified for the Pro Bowl last season.

What defensive coordinator Rod Marinelli is looking for, however, is an improved pass rush to take some of the pressure off of frequent double-teams on Peppers, whose motor is still running. It is hoped that first-round Boise State DE Shea McClellin, who could emerge as a hybrid DE/LB type, can improve the push from the edges.

As usual, the Bears look solid on special teams, with kick returner extraordinaire Devin Hester still in the fold, and PK Robbie Gould continuing as one of the most accurate kickers in NFL history. Moreover, punter Adam Podlesh set a franchise record for net punting average (40.4) in his first season with the Bears a year ago.

Summing Up: The Packers remain an elusive target in the NFC North, and the Lions have emerged as a playoff-quality entry, so the Bears are not going to have an easy time of it within their division. The dominoes have to fall right for Chicago to make it back to the playoffs; keeping Cutler healthy and a veteran-laced defense at the same level it was a year ago will likely determine if the Bears are postseason-bound. Or if Lovie Smith indeed returns for another go on the sidelines next season. Indeed, the future is now at Solider Field.

**StarDust Bum** · 07-21-2012, 03:58 PM

Cleveland Browns Face Uphill Battle In 2012

These haven’t been the same Cleveland Browns our fathers knew. Paul Brown, Otto Graham, Jim Brown...all relics of a long-ago era by the shores of Lake Erie.

Can it really be 48 years since the Brownies won their last title? (Technically, the old franchise did win a Super Bowl after it became the Baltimore Ravens, but the Cleveland part of NFL history has been title-less since 1964.) We recall that last title well, when Frank Ryan and Gary Collins teamed up for three TD passes, Jim Brown rumbled to soften the Baltimore defense, and the secondary, led by CB Bernie Parrish, succeeded in popping Johnny Unitas’ receivers as they came off the line of scrimmage, consistently knocking them off stride.

That ‘64 Browns team has risen to mythical stature, the last Cleveland-based team to win a sports championship. Used to kicks in the gut, the local fan base had to endure more angst in June when local son LeBron James, who abandoned the NBA Cavaliers two years ago, won an NBA title with the Miami Heat.

So, unless the Indians make an unlikely run to the World Series, Cleveland’s title drought should continue through the winter, because we don’t think the Browns are ready to recall Blanton Collier’s ‘64 title winners.

Since their resurrection in 1999, the Brownies have rarely caused much of a stir. Even their one playoff sojourn since, a Wild Card appearance under Butch Davis in 2002, ended with a bitter loss to the Steelers.

Cleveland will be trying to reinvent itself once again this fall after the latest disappointment, a 4-12 finish a year ago in head coach Pat Shurmur’s first trip around the track. But Browns Stadium isn’t Thistledown, and Cleveland likely remains a maiden this fall in a loaded AFC North featuring the Ravens, Steelers and Bengals, playoff teams all a year ago and against whom the Brownies were winless in six tries.

Team prexy Mike Holmgren, in his fourth year on the job, needs to see some positive results soon, but hasn’t resorted to any quick-fix tactics through free agency. Patiently building through the draft alongside GM Tom Heckert, Cleveland has plotted its course for the future. Whether it is the right course remains to be seen.

The latest Browns transformation began in the offseason, when veteran coach Brad Childress was named as the new offensive coordinator, although Shurmur is likely to continue his involvement in the play-calling aspect. But who pilots Childress' version of the West Coast remains a question mark after Oklahoma State rookie Brandon Weeden (who will be 29 in October) was selected with a second first-round pick in the April’s NFL Draft to compete with holdover Colt McCoy, the ex-Texas Longhorn whose first two years as a pro have been mostly a struggle.

Weeden was part of a draft-day narrative that understandably focused upon offense after the Cleveland strike force remained on the tarmac for much of last fall. The Browns didn’t exceed 20 points in any game after a 27-19 Week 2 win at Peyton Manning-less Indianapolis (in fact, they scored as much as 20 points just once thereafter), and finished ranked a lowly 28th in total offense (289 ypg) and 30th in scoring (13.6 ppg).

Thus, the selections of Weeden and Alabama RB Trent Richardson with an earlier first-round pick were understandable.

Indeed, it is around Richardson whom Childress would like to build the new-look Cleveland attack, and an indicator that the Browns are not likely to be pass crazy in their new offense. Richardson will be looking to improve a sluggish infantry that recorded a puny four rushing TDs all of last season and allowed bruising FB Peyton Hillis to walk (he’s now a Chief) in the offseason.

As for Weeden, he’s regarded as the favorite to beat out holdover McCoy for the starting QB job. Childress is said to prefer Weeden’s stronger arm and accuracy to those of McCoy, although we’ll see how that pans out once the games begin to count in September.

The coaching staff believes that Weeden’s arm will make better receivers out of the likes of holdovers Mohamed Massaquoi and Greg Little, who have yet to flash the big-play potential each seemed to ooze as collegians. Baylor rookie Josh Gordon, picked in the supplemental draft, looms as an intriguing wild card.

Childress will also be looking to goose the production of his tight ends, an integral component in the West Coast. Second-year Jordan Cameron will be given the opportunity to unseat veteran Ben Watson, entering his ninth year.

The building blocks along the OL have been put in place over the past few years, with LT Joe Thomas already having blossomed into a Pro Bowl regular. But the parts have remained greater than the sum, and the front office continued the offensive upgrade into the second round of the draft when nabbing Cal’s NFL-ready RT Mitchell Schwartz, who will likely be plugged into the starting lineup.

Still, the offense is likely relying upon a rookie QB (Weeden) to detonate the new-look attack. We wouldn’t be holding our breath for any quick transformation.

Defense, however, is another story, and the Brownies stayed close in several games because of their stop unit, which ranked a very respectable fifth in scoring (just 307 points allowed) and second in pass defense under coordinator Dick Jauron.

On the other hand, Cleveland was soft vs. the run last season (ranking 30th), so what mild stabs Holmgren and Heckert made in the free agent market were focused on the defensive front, where ex-Bengals DE Frostee Rucker and ex-Eagles DT Juqua Parker were added. Marcus Benard, who led the team in sacks in 2010 but missed last year after a motorcycle accident, returns to the mix.

The linebacking corps took an offseason blow when OLB Scott Fujita was suspended for the first three games due to his involvement in the Saints’ "Bounty-gate" scandal from 2009. D’Qwell Jackson led Cleveland in tackles last year and likely does so again, although Jauron will be hoping for more pass-rush pressure from this crew after the DL had to account for most of last season’s sacks.

The strength of the platoon remains in the secondary, where CB Joe Haden is so good that he is automatically assigned to the opposition’s best receiver each week. Getting back strong safety T.J. Ward, who missed the last six games of 2011 with a foot injury, will be a plus.

Those solid pass defense numbers from last season will be challenged by a 2012 slate that features a few more top-level throwers (including both Manning brothers, Philip Rivers, Carson Palmer, Andrew Luck and Robert Griffin II) than the Browns saw in 2011.

Trend-wise, note the recent "under" pattern in Browns games (14-6-1 since late in the 2010 campaign), reflecting the offensive problems.

Summary: The AFC North is one tough neighborhood, and any breakthrough from the Browns will require bypassing at least one from among the Ravens, Steelers and Bengals. That doesn’t appear likely with the offense in another rebuild mode and probably forced to rely upon a rookie QB. Jauron’s "D" keeps Cleveland competitive most weeks, but we’re looking at another losing season by the shores of Lake Erie...and 1964 looking further back in the rear-view mirror.

**StarDust Bum** · 07-21-2012, 04:00 PM

Denver Broncos Set For Manning Era To Begin

John Elway considered it a gift from heaven.

Peyton Manning, interested in becoming a Denver Bronco?

The series of dominoes that had to fall in the right order to get Manning to the doorstep of the Broncos remains a story unto itself. For team prexy Elway, however, it offered him a chance to escape the Tim Tebow dilemma without too much collateral damage.

Though “Tim Terrific” was a revelation in the unorthodox manner in which he rejuvenated the Broncos last season, Elway was always a reluctant passenger on the Tebow bandwagon despite being well aware of Tebow’s wild popularity in the Rockies and throughout Bronco Nation. If he were to extricate himself from Tebow mania, he had to do nothing short of replacing the ex-Florida Heisman winner with a Hall of Fame caliber QB.

Enter Peyton Manning, and the rest of the storyline in spring was written. Manning, after his release from the Colts, embarked upon a brief courtship period with a handful of before signing with the Broncos in late March. Elway subsequently packaged Tebow in a trade to the Jets. All of a sudden, Tebow Mania was extinguished in the Rockies, but replaced by Manning Mania and a likely better chance for the Broncos to make a deeper run in the playoffs than the surprise charge to final eight authored by Tebow and friends last season.

Of course, there have to remain questions about Manning’s health after the neck surgery that sidelined him for the entirety of 2011 and made the Colts intent on using the No. 1 overall draft pick on a successor to Manning at QB, who turned out to be Stanford’s Andrew Luck. But Elway, head coach John Fox and a slew of doctors gave Manning a clean bill of health in the offseason, enough that the Denver brass felt comfy enough to ward Manning a five-year contract. Manning, now 36, says he feels as good as ever.

But it is not a stretch to say that the Broncos will flourish in 2012 based almost solely upon Manning resembling his pre-injury form.

The offense that Manning will orchestrate should look a lot like the Indy versions he piloted over the past several years: lots of no-huddle, timing routes, dump-offs to backs and liberal use of tight ends. Indeed, Manning’s comfort level with offensive coordinator Mike McCoy’s schemes was said to be a big selling point in the ex-Tennessee Vol inking with Denver.

There is plenty of upside within a young receiving corps that might really flourish with Manning firing his customary darts. Third-year wideouts Demaryius Thomas (whose 80-yard TD catch from Tebow on the first scrimmage play of overtime knocked the Steelers out of the Wild Card Round last January) and Erik Decker have flashed plenty of upside, and if each can stay healthy could post monster numbers. Ex-Kentucky TE Jacob Tamme is a familiar target of Manning’s from days with the Colts.

A young and talented offensive line, led by All-Pro LT Ryan Clady, provides a nice fortress. Among the rookies, San Diego State RB Ronnie Hillman is expected to make significant contributions after vet Willis McGahee wore down late in 2011 and Knowshon Moreno battled through more injuries. Place-kicker Matt Prater is also a weapon, having won a pair of OT games last fall on 50+-yard field goals vs. the Dolphins and Bears.

There is concern, however, about depth behind Manning, with Tebow and last year’s other QB options (Kyle Orton, who was released before the end of 2011, and Brady Quinn) having left town. As cover for Manning, all Fox has at the moment is ex-Bears journeyman Caleb Hanie and Arizona State rookie Brock Osweiler, a second-round pick and considered strictly a developmental project until further notice.

Lost amid Tebow-mania last fall was an improved defensive effort spearheaded by impact sorts such as undersized DE Elvis Dumervil (who missed the entirety of the previous 2010 campaign due to injury) and Texas A&M rookie LB Von Miller, who proved a revelation from the edge.

New defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio, who was Jacksonville’s head coach the last nine seasons, has tweaked the platoon instead of overhauling it, which was unnecessary after the improvements shown last fall.

Still, some believe the Broncos could have done a little bit more in the draft, when the need for a run-stuffing defensive lineman was at the top of the wish list after DT Brodrick Bunkley moved to the Saints in free agency. Denver continued to trade down in late April at Radio City Music Hall before opting for ex-Cincinnati Bearcat DT Derek Wolfe early in the second round. Wolfe has plenty of potential but was not regarded among the top-shelf DTs in the draft, many of who were available before the Broncos' trade-down dynamics in the first round.

Wolfe might be forced into action early, as there are durability questions about others options at the DT spots in Del Rio’s 4-3 looks. Veterans such as Ty Warren, Kevin Vickerson and FA addition Justin Bannan (from the Rams) have all had injury issues before, especially Warren who hasn’t played since 2009, and Vickerson, who missed most of 2011 with ankle problems.

In Miller and fellow OLB D.J. Williams, however, Denver can bring heavy pressure from the edge, while Dumervil and his 52 career sacks rates as one of the league’s top pass rush threats.

The secondary could miss the veteran leadership of safety Brian Dawkins, who retired, but the Broncos’ second most-influential FA signing, ex-Saint Tracy Porter, makes for a potential shutdown combo on the corners alongside Champ Bailey. Ironically, it’s the same Porter whose late TD interception return off Manning sealed the Saints win over the Colts in Super Bowl XLIV.

Summing up: The Broncos, surprise winners of the AFC West a year ago, were still only 8-8 last season, and used the uniqueness of the spread option and Tebow to reinvent themselves at midseason. That path seemed an unlikely one back to the playoffs, so expect more of a traditional look with Manning at the helm. Though the defense improved last season, and LB Miller looks like a superstar in the making, make no mistake that the Broncos’ fortunes in 2012 rest with Manning. The fact the AFC West appears to be in a transition phase should open the door for a return to the playoffs if Manning is still the old, pre-injury Peyton this fall.

**StarDust Bum** · 07-21-2012, 04:01 PM

Jaguars To Rely On Strong Defense Once Again

The lanes figure to be more clear in the new order of the AFC South, where Peyton Manning no longer roams for the Indianapolis Colts, and the Houston Texans enter 2012 as the defending division champs after reaching the playoffs for the first time in their history a year ago.

Thus, the division seems ripe for another team to make a breakthrough. We’re just not sure the Jacksonville Jaguars are ready to make that sort of leap into contender status.

Not that the Jags didn’t try to change their recipe in the offseason after last season’s dismal 5-11 mark that finally cost head coach Jack Del Rio his job last in the campaign after 8½ seasons in charge. That downturn had prompted the sale of the team by original owner Wayne Weaver to Shad Kahn, a colorful, mustachioed character who has become the new “face” of the franchise (much to the delight of TV cameras, getting a kick out of all of the mustache disguised on fans at EverBank Field, the old Gator Bowl).

Kahn is well aware that the Jags' popularity has dipped in recent years, forcing a tarpaulin to cover many seats at EverBank and reduce the capacity for TV sellout purposes. Kahn would of course rather open up all of the seats and get true sellouts at home, which in recent years have been limited to special games and Monday nighters which often (but no more) featured the Peyton Manning-led Colts.

Kahn’s first order of business was finding a new coach after defensive coordinator Mel Tucker (who has been retained by the new regime) kept the Jaguars together down the stretch in 2011 following Del Rio’s ouster. Kahn, however, seems to have made an uninspired choice in longtime NFL offensive coordinator Mike Mularkey, a respected assistant but a failure in his previous head coaching stab a few years ago with the Bills.

The Jags, however, were looking for a coach with offensive chops to revitalize a moribund strike force that finished last in NFL passing (2,179 yards) and total offense (259.3 yards pg) a year ago. Mularkey at least has those chops, and has enlisted respected offensive assistants Bob Bratkowski (the new offensive coordinator) and Greg Olson (the new QB coach) to aid the renaissance.

That reboot, however, must start at the QB position, which has proven a problem area in recent years.

Second-year ex-Missouri Tiger Blaine Gabbert showed hints of progress as a rookie QB, but the jury remains out on Gabbert as a bona fide NFL leader, and Mularkey toyed with the idea of going in a different direction in the offseason. Instead, ex-Dolphin Chad Henne was added as veteran cover should Gabbert regress in his sophomore season.

The passing game was still the focus in the offseason, as Mularkey upgraded the receiving corps by adding two established NFL playmakers, Laurent Robinson and Lee Evans, along with Oklahoma State rookie Justin Blackmon, a high first-round draft choice (fifth) at Radio City Music Hall last April and considered the most-dangerous wideout in the rookie class. Now, can Gabbert get them the ball?

It is comforting, at least, to know that the Jaguars still retain multi-threat RB Maurice Jones-Drew, last year’s NFL rush leader with 1606 yards. And if the offensive line can stay healthy (which it couldn’t a year ago), maybe Mularkey’s strike force can indeed show improvement.

There was nothing wrong with the defense, which, as mentioned, retains coordinator Tucker. The Jags ranked sixth in NFL defense a year ago, and the stop unit kept J’ville closer than it should have been on several occasions, including a near-upset at Pittsburgh, and contributed mightily to the best result of all last season in a 12-7 Monday night upset win over the Ravens.

Nonetheless, the Jaguars went for defense with four of their six draft picks and made upgrading the secondary a priority in free agency when adding ex-Giant CB Aaron Ross, who will compete with Rashean Mathis for the first-string spot on the left corner.

The secondary appears to be one of the strong points of the stop unit, as is the LB corps, where all three starters (Daryl Smith, Paul Posluszny and Clint Session) return.

If there are a few questions, they might be on the defensive front, where tackle Terrance Knighton suffered a severe eye injury in an altercation at a nightclub – why do these guys keep on getting into this sort of off-the-field trouble? – and has been sidelined for most of the offseason. Defensive end Tyson Alualu is also coming off knee surgery, and his progress must be monitored. But the Jags made sure to re-sign DE Jeremy Mincey, and they are not likely to lose games because of Tucker’s stop unit.

Summary: The AFC South looks more wide-open these days now that Manning has left Indy, and the opportunity is there for the Jags to take advantage. The defense was playoff-quality a year ago, and the offense, on paper, looks as if it should improve with new brain trust (including Mularkey) featuring so many respected attack-end tacticians and schemers, and the presence of Jones-Drew and an upgraded group of receiving targets. But there remains a huge question at QB, where Gabbert is still early on the learning curve, and Henne, while a serviceable backup, does not inspire confidence if entrusted to spark a playoff surge.

The jury is also still out on Mularkey as a head coach after his failure in Buffalo. The Jags intrigue, but we’re not ready to consider them a playoff contender just yet until we see if QB Gabbert really is ready to take the next steps.

**StarDust Bum** · 07-21-2012, 04:03 PM

Revamped New York Jets Eye Playoff Return

Wow! Rex Ryan must not mind living on the edge!

The controversial Jets coach was reportedly the driving force behind the acquisition of the one and only Tim Tebow, the polarizing ex-Heisman winner from Florida and magician for last year’s Broncos when leading Denver into one of the most-unexpected playoff berths in recent memory.

Yet if all goes to plan, Tebow, who alternately captivated and thrilled the Rockies with his unorthodox style a year ago, will only be a bit player as Ryan looks to steer the Jets back to the postseason after fading down the stretch to 8-8 a year ago, missing the playoffs altogether after qualifying for the AFC title game the previous two seasons.

A more important development for the Jets this fall is likely going to involve holdover QB Mark Sanchez, who has not progressed since his rookie season and might have even taken a step or two backwards a year ago. With limited physical attributes, Sanchez regressed markedly in 2011, tossing 18 picks and sacked 39 times as the Jets deviated from their run-first formula that had somewhat protected Sanchez in his first two years.

Sanchez was also guilty of crucial mistakes last season, such as the ghastly turnovers that allowed Miami to sneak away with a win in the regular-season finale and bury the Jets’ playoff hopes once and for all.

Still, Ryan and his new offensive coordinator, ex-Dolphins head coach Tony Sparano, believe a return to an infantry emphasis is the best way to shield Sanchez. The Jets fell to 22nd in NFL rushing stats a year ago after ranking first and fourth, respectively, the previous two years. Look for the Sparano offense to revolve around RB Shonn Greene, who recorded his first 1,000-yard rushing season a year ago (1,054 yards).

Enter Tebow, whose acquisition was also heartily endorsed by Sparano who introduced the 'Wildcat' looks to the NFL four years ago in Miami with Ronnie Brown taking direct snaps, and envisions Tebow as a similar-type threat this fall. If all goes to plan, Tebow will be spotted accordingly by Sparano, often in short-yardage or goal-line situations where the ex-Gator’s powerful running style offers the sort of dimension Sanchez cannot provide.

The risk of having Tebow as another offensive option are the peripheral distractions (no fault of Tebow’s) that might result if: A) Tim Terrific excels in his limited role, or B) Sanchez endures another difficult season.

There are other issues offensively, especially among the receiving corps where the moody Santonio Holmes has underachieved while proving a divisive influence in the locker room – his latest misadventure was asking out of June OTA work because he felt he had taken too many snaps already – and an OL that leaked too much in 2011 and failed to keep Sanchez upright. Sparano will have to thread the needle this fall to avoid many of these issues.

Moreover, there are defensive issues for Ryan to address as the stop unit has gradually weakened over Rex’s three years in charge. Indeed, the Jets’ 'D' allowed 123 more points in 2011 than it did in Ryan’s first season back in 2009.

Although the Tebow addition stole the offseason headlines, Ryan and GM Mike Tannenbaum made perhaps their boldest moves in the offseason with hopes of bolstering the recently-sagging defense. The top free-agent addition was ex-Redskins safety LaRon Landry, while the Jets went for additional defensive help with their top pick in the draft, tabbing North Carolina’s pass-rush demon DE Quinton Coples with a first-round selection.

Landry, however, might not prove the answer at one of the safety spots that has opened up with the likely departure of key performer, injury-prone Jim Leonhard (still unsigned as of early July), as an Achilles tendon injury limited Landry’s offseason work and threatened his availability for training camp. The secondary still features shutdown CB deluxe Darrelle Revis, but his partner on the other side, Antonio Cromartie, was picked on a bit too often a year ago as opponents mostly chose to avoid throwing the way of Revis.

The front seven will hopefully be bolstered by the addition of rookie DE Couples, who could provide a spark that was missing a year ago. Worryingly for Ryan, LBs Bart Scott and Calvin Pace both seemed to slow noticeably last fall.

Maybe Ryan can use Tebow on defense, too.

Summary: Ryan is attempting to change a formula that seemed to go bad a year ago, authorizing staff changes and making bold moves in the offseason that hardly appear foolproof. The Tebow acquisition, while looking good in theory, also threatens to be an unwanted distraction, with a simmering QB controversy the last thing Ryan or confidence-shaky holdover QB Mark Sanchez needs at this point.

But the Jets’ re-emergence as a playoff team likely rests with Sparano’s 'O' rediscovering its ground game roots, and for Ryan to reboot a defense that sprung a lot of leaks last fall. There is no guarantee the whole situation won’t blow up in Ryan’s face this fall.

**StarDust Bum** · 07-21-2012, 04:05 PM

Oakland Raiders Begin New Era With New Regime

It’s a new era in Oakland. Whether it’s going to be a better era than the mostly-dismal one over the past decade remains to be seen.

There’s no more Al Davis calling the shots for the Silver-and-Black after the franchise patriarch passed away last October. The new regime, led by Al’s son Mark, made a clean sweep after the Raiders faded to 8-8 last season, missing out on what looked to be a likely playoff berth much of last autumn when losing four of their last five games, including an especially painful, 38-26 final-game setback vs. San Diego that would have put Oakland into the postseason for the first time since the Super Bowl campaign of 2002.

When the smoke cleared, coach Hue Jackson, who had just one year on the job after serving as Oakland offensive coordinator under Tom Cable, walked the planked. The younger Davis thus enlisted a regime with his own fingerprints, led by new GM Reggie McKenzie, who got to run his first draft in late April after working alongside Ted Thompson in Green Bay.

Indeed, McKenzie seems intent on modeling the new-look Raiders after the Packers, which might make Al Davis roll over in his grave, but seems a prudent idea after Green Bay’s recent successes (and Oakland’s recent failures). New head coach Dennis Allen has been a well-regarded NFL defensive assistant for the past decade and arrives in Oakland after a stop in Denver as John Fox’s defensive coordinator for last year’s Broncos.

Allen is being given total authority to handle his coaching staff and on-field matters, a departure from the old Raider way of doing things in the era of Al. This is reminiscent of the operation in Green Bay, where a similar delineation exists between GM Thompson and head coach Mike McCarthy.

On McKenzie’s end, there was little to work with in the April draft, with the Raiders minus a first-round pick (surrendered to the Bengals in the Carson Palmer trade) and without a selection until the 95th pick overall, late in the third round. It’s doubtful any rookies make much impact, although 4th-round LB Mike Burris from San Diego State has some intriguing upside and should help immediately on special teams.

McKenzie instead spent much of the offseason purging some of Al’s big contracts from the roster, releasing highly-paid but underachieving sorts such as CB Stanford Routt and LB Kamerion Wimbley. McKenzie was somewhat active in free agency, though was working mostly on the periphery while adding a few modestly-priced vets. Of those, ex-Texans G Mike Brisiel was probably the highest-profile addition, along with lesser-priced CBs Ron Bartell (ex-Rams) and Shawntae Spencer (ex-49ers) and DE Dave Tollefson (ex-Giants).

McKenzie also tweaked the offensive personnel, letting former QB Jason Campbell and RB Michael Bush both walk in free agency. Campbell’s departure puts extra pressure on Palmer to stay healthy, with disappointing ex-Heisman winner and free agent signee Matt Leinart the only experienced cover for Palmer on the roster.

New offensive coordinator Greg Knapp, the Texans’ QB coach the past two seasons, will be implementing a new-look West Coast-style package as well and will also be re-installing the zone blocking schemes last used in Oakland when Knapp was working for Lane Kiffin’s regime in 2007-08.

Palmer showed he could still wing it last season when he was thrown into the lineup cold in the sixth week of the season, partially explaining his 16 interceptions vs. only 13 TD passes. When Palmer had time to set and scan the field, however, he often looked as good as he did in his best Cincinnati years.

Palmer’s receiving corps is regarded as one of the up-and-coming ones in the AFC. Former first-round draftee Darrius Heyward-Bey finally began to flash some of his considerable upside when catching 64 passes a year ago. Denarius Moore and Jacoby Ford are other wideouts who can also get deep.

On the opponents’ side of the 50-yard-line, however, the Raiders always remain a threat to at least put three points on the board with shaved-headed, strong-legged PK Sebastian Janikowski, whose achievements last season included kicking a NFL record-tying 63-yard field goal in Denver’s thin altitude in the opening Monday night game. Janikowski remains virtually automatic inside of 53 yards.

Without Bush as a nice change-of-pace and capable replacement, however, it will be important for RB Darren McFadden to stay healthy, which has not been easy the past couple of years. McFadden gained 5.4 ypc in 2011 but only played in seven games due to injury issues which have recurred throughout his career.

New defensive coordinator Jason Tarver, most recently the co-defensive coordinator at Stanford, has junked the old Raiders defense, authorized by Allen to implement a new look, multiple 4-3 that will hopefully highlight a deep and disruptive group of linemen featuring Richard Seymour and Tommy Kelly on the inside and Lamarr Houston and Matt Shaughnessy on the outside, with ex-Giant Tollefson versatile enough to provide depth at all positions.

The concern defensively is in the secondary, especially on the corners, where ex-Ram Bartell and ex-49er Spencer did not have stellar 2011 campaigns in their former locales. Bartell, in particular, must be watched closely after missing action due to neck problems a year ago. Allen and Tarver will also be hoping the defensive front becomes more disciplined as it tries to better stop the run. Along those lines, Allen and Tarver could also use MLB Rolando McClain to improve as a run-stopper.

Summary: The uniforms will look the same, but much else appears to be changing post-Al Davis in Oakland. New owner, new GM, new coach, new offense, new defense...that covers about everything. Keeping Palmer and McFadden healthy will be key to the new, West Coast offense moving smoothly, while the restructured defense figures to be a work in progress.

They didn’t build Rome in a day, and it’s doubtful Reggie McKenzie’s vision of building the Raiders into an AFC West model of the Packers will happen overnight, either. We’d be surprised if the Raiders are as involved in the playoff chase as they were a year ago, or do better than last year’s 8-8 mark.

**StarDust Bum** · 07-21-2012, 04:06 PM

Seattle Seahawks Playing Catch-Up To 49ers

There’s a general belief that Pete Carroll’s Seattle Seahawks were backsliding a year ago as they missed out on the postseason after being a surprise qualifier for the playoffs in 2010.

Upon further inspection, however, the Hawks posted the same 7-9 regular-season record last season as they did in 2010. The difference? NFC West rival San Francisco improved to 13-3, leaving Carroll’s team in the dust and setting a new benchmark in the formerly-weak division.

With the bar raised in the West, Carroll knew what he had to do in the offseason to close the gap on the 49ers after mistakenly going thin at QB last summer, when Carroll believed he could stay afloat with holdover Charlie Whitehurst and ex-Viking Tarvaris Jackson leading the charge.

Oh, well, what is it they say about the best-laid plans of mice and men?

Whitehurst, Carroll’s first big trade acquisition in 2010, proved a bust and is now back with the San Diego Changers, from whence he came to Seattle. As for Jackson, he gave it a shot last season and had a few highlight moments, but the inconsistencies that marked his previous days in Minnesota too often resurfaced in Seattle.

Carroll thus entered this offseason knowing that upgrades were needed under center if the Seahawks were going to have a chance to reel in the 49ers. After briefly trying to convince Peyton Manning to give Seattle a look, Carroll opted for the next-best alternative in the free-agent marketplace, ex-Packer Matt Flynn, who like some other past Green Bay backups – such as Mark Brunell and the Seahawks’ former QB Matt Hasselbeck – only seems to need a chance, which probably wasn’t going to happen at Lambeau Field with Aaron Rodgers in the way.

Flynn thus enters preseason on top of the new Seahawk depth chart at QB that also features third-round draft choice Russell Wilson, the former NC State and Wisconsin QB who polarized many NFL teams that couldn’t make up their minds if his prodigious college numbers and leadership skills would be negated by his lack of size. Carroll, however, sees Wilson as a potential Drew Brees-like performer, and was wowed by how quickly the rookie picked up the Seattle playbook in the OTAs. Still, Wilson appears unlikely to be featured for a while, especially with Flynn and holdover Jackson still in the Seahawks QB queue.

Assuming the 'Hawks get better QB play this fall, perhaps they can make an advance on the 49ers in the NFC West. The offense hopes to have better balance in 2012, with Flynn orchestrating offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell’s West Coast attack and vet RB Marshawn Lynch remaining in the fold after re-signing in the offseason. Still productive (1,204 YR and 12 TDs in 2011), Carroll and Bevell nonetheless remain sensitive to the many poundings Lynch and his physical style have absorbed and will likely be spotting Utah State rookie Robert Turbin (perhaps a steal of the draft in the 4th round) in order to better pace Lynch this fall.

It will help Flynn (or Jackson) to have big-play WR Sidney Rice in a healthy state after he missed seven games last fall due to injury. Ex-Stanford charge Doug Baldwin emerged as a nice possession-type receiver in Rice’s absence, but the Seahawks could use the downfield threat Rice can provide. An X-factor could be TE Kellen Winslow, who arrived in a trade with the Bucs and competes with holdover Zach Miller for snaps.

Meanwhile, Carroll did some more gambling in the draft when tabbing West Virginia’s enigmatic DE Bruce Irvin with the 15th pick in the first round. When right, Irvin was considered the best pass rusher in the college ranks a year ago, but maturity issues scared some teams away at Radio City Music Hall in late April. Carroll and defensive coordinator Gus Bradley, however, envision Irvin as a center-piece of the stop unit, although at the outset he might be on the field only as a situational sub (likely on passing downs).

Irvin is only part of a defensive line upgrade that also included adding free agent DT Jason Jones from the Titans. Along with re-signing DE Red Bryant, Seattle’s front four should have a robust look, also featuring holdovers DT Brandon Mebane and DE Chris Clemons.

There are concerns in the LB crew, however, after last year’s platoon leader, MLB David Hawthorne, left in free agency to the Saints. Carroll hoped to fill the gap by signing another ex-Titan, Barrett Ruud, in his place, although Rudd endured an injury-plagued campaign a year ago in Nashville. Another Utah State rookie (like RB Turbin), second-round pick MLB Bobby Wagner, could begin the preseason with the first unit while Ruud continues to rehab knee and shoulder injuries.

The secondary, rebuilt last season, retains much the same look as a year ago, when Stanford rookie Richard Sherman emerged as an unlikely force late in the season and enters 2012 as the projected starter at the LCB spot.

Summary: Many NFC West observers suspect that the Seahawks appear the most-likely division entry to rise and challenge the 49ers this fall, but a quick peek at the Seahawks’ schedule suggests that a breakthrough won’t be easy, with non-division foes Green Bay, Dallas, Cam Newton and improving Carolina plus New England all on the schedule within the first six weeks. If Flynn provides the upgrade for the offense that many expect, however, the Seahawks will have a puncher’s chance against anyone, especially at Century Link Field, which Carroll’s team has made a nice fortress and where it has covered the number in nine of its last 11 home games.

Expect Seattle to at least be on the periphery of the wild card mix with a chance to return to the postseason if Flynn can deliver as hoped.

**StarDust Bum** · 07-21-2012, 04:12 PM

San Francisco 49ers Focus On Super Bowl Trip

What a difference a year can make!

At this time last summer, few had a clue that newly-hired coach Jim Harbaugh would have such an impact on the San Francisco 49ers. Sure, the hire looked promising, as Harbaugh had already established himself as a miracle-worker of sorts in a brilliant four-season run as the coach at Stanford, down the Peninsula. All Harbaugh did in Palo Alto is inherit a woeful program that had posted a 1-11 record in the season before his arrival and turned it into a BCS qualifier within four seasons. Harbaugh’s last Stanford team finished ranked fourth in the country after walloping Virginia Tech, 40-12, in the Orange Bowl.

But most seemed to be saying to Harbaugh, let’s see you do that in the NFL, especially with what appeared to be a dysfunctional 49ers team that had finished a subpar 6-10 in 2010 and hadn’t been to the playoffs since 2002.

A year later, Harbaugh has answered any doubters after leading San Francisco to one of the more stunning turnarounds in recent NFL annals, as the 49ers had the NFC West clinched by the start of December en route to a 13-3 mark and home-field edge in the NFC playoffs. All of the way, in fact, to the NFC title game, where the 49ers took the Giants into overtime before bowing in a bitter 20-17 decision.

No matter those specifics, it looks as if Harbaugh has answered what few critics he might have had before last season. Harbaugh, apparently, knows what he’s doing.

Not so sound too snarky, however, but let’s see Harbaugh do it again this fall. Although the 49ers are the clear favorite in the NFC West, history tells us that replicating the perfect storm of 2011 and the corresponding 13-3 regular-season mark could be difficult.

In truth, Harbaugh probably didn’t inherit as desperate a situation at Candlestick Park as many seemed to believe. The 49ers had a pre-cooked, playoff-ready defense by the time Harbaugh arrived. San Francisco’s problem in the previous few seasons was that defense-minded head coach Mike Singletary – no surprise in his emphasis on the stop until after a Hall-of-Fame career as a linebacker for the Bears – had absolutely no understanding or feel for the offense, putting his various coordinators under needless strain as they tried to replicate a Woody Hayes-style offense that was the fantasy of Singletary. Needless to say, it didn’t work.

Harbaugh, however, had an offensive background, and his former life as a QB allowed him to relate to holdover QB Alex Smith who had been victimized by a string of different coaches, coordinators and offensive philosophies. Harbaugh’s offense would also focus on developing a physical infantry diversion, but Smith also had a bit more direction in the passing and simply leading the team, which was never easy in the previous years.

For year two of his regime, Harbaugh has added some more weapons to the offensive mix that he hopes might push his side over the proverbial hump and into the franchise’s first Super Bowl since the days of Steve Young in 1994. Harbaugh, however, took a while in the offseason before re-committing to QB Smith, even toying with the idea of making a run at Peyton Manning before the ex-Colt signed with Denver.

Harbaugh went offense-offense in the first two rounds of the NFL Draft, adding Illinois WR A.J. Jenkins and Oregon RB LaMichael James. The key free-agent additions were also offensive skill weapons, as wideouts Mario Manningham (ex-Giants) and Randy Moss (ex-everywhere), plus beastly ex-Giants RB Brandon Jacobs, have been added to the attack end mix. Re-signing big-play Ted Ginn, Jr. should be a plus for the kick return teams.

James and Jacobs, in particular, should reduce the wear and tear on physical RB Frank Gore, who has been prone to injury throughout his career, and in whose limited absences the 49er infantry bogged down a year ago. The rugged, veteran offensive line has a few holes (and pass protection for Smith wasn’t great a year ago, when SF ranked 26th in sacks allowed), but by and large is able to help execute the power-ground element of Harbaugh and offensive coordinator Greg Roman’s version of the West Coast offense.

The 'O' could certainly have a more-menacing look this fall, especially with holdover TE Vernon Davis having elevated to All-Pro status. Moss, if nothing else, still has secondary-distorting speed and most sources believe remains a viable deep threat. Third-year WR Michael Crabtree might also be ready for a breakthrough.

The hard-hitting stop unit, which ranked tops in the NFC when allowing barely 300 ypg in 2011, should continue to be robust in defensive coordinator Vic Fangio’s version of the 3-4. And a classic 3-4 it is, with linemen adept at tying up opposing blockers so a heat-seeking group of active linebackers can fly around the field and make all assortment of plays.

All starters return on the platoon (a rarity in the days of free agency), so we don’t expect much drop-off. It’s worth noting, however, that Fangio’s stop unit was blessed with good health last year, as a only a handful of games were missed due to injury; LB Patrick Willis missed four games, FS Dashon Goldson two and DE Ray McDonald just one. That’s it.

The stop unit also forced a whopping 38 turnovers last fall that were converted into 108 points. The platoon was not only dominating, but opportunistic with its big-play bent.

Concerns for this fall? Not many, save keeping the lineup healthy and in action as it was for almost the entirety of 2011. It was a bad offseason, however, for OLB Aldon Smith, charged with a DUI in late January and then a stabbing victim in June, so keep an eye on that situation. Goldson, protesting the franchise tag, avoiding offseason workouts and could be a training camp holdout due to contract issues.

Though Aldon Smith’s situation warrants some scrutiny, the LB corps remains dynamic. Especially since one of the more-unsung members of the quartet, NaVorro Bowman, might have even outplayed the perennial All-Pro next to him in the alignments, Willis, a year ago. So many 49er defenders were off career years, and seemingly in their primes, that we hardly foresee a drop-off for this platoon unless the injury plague rears its head.

Lastly, Harbaugh has proven a handicapper’s best friend the past few years, fashioning a 12-5-1 spread mark in his 49er debut last fall. Since midway in the 2008 season at Stanford, Harbaugh’s teams are 31-15-1 vs. the line.

Summary: On paper, the 49ers look a lot better than they did a year ago, but that’s understandable because nobody (except maybe Harbaugh) foresaw last year’s breakthrough. Smith’s emergence as a competent game-manager keyed a more-efficient offense, and now he has some real weapons at his disposal after several offseason additions. This looks like a team that shouldn’t regress, and ought to have a very good shot at reaching the Super Bowl (especially since it is hard to identify a serious challenger in the NFC West), but the 49ers are not going to sneaking up anybody this season.

Expect some heavy pointspread premiums to be placed upon the 49ers this fall, and replicating last year’s perfect storm won’t be easy. Nonetheless, expect to see Harbaugh and his scowl on the sidelines come playoff time next January.

**StarDust Bum** · 07-21-2012, 04:13 PM

Patriots Remain AFC East Team To Beat

Let's take a look at what could be the strongest division top to bottom in the NFL: the AFC East, possibly equal to the NFC South that we will preview next week in our final NFL "early look" preview.

Starting from the bottom according to the oddsmakers, we have the Miami Dolphins. The Fish have a new head man in Joe Philbin and drafted a quarterback in the first round for the first time since they selected a guy named Dan Marino 29 years ago. The selection of Ryan Tannehill was not all that popular though, and they could damage him for life if they throw him into a "Blaine Gabbert" type situation in his first year. David Garrard also comes into camp fighting for a roster spot, despite missing the 2011 season.

The Dolphins have several weak spots along the offensive line and little in the way of quality at wide receiver. They shipped Brandon Marshall off to Chicago very cheaply, mainly due to his personality disorders. That leaves little talent at the wideout spot for Matt Moore or Tannehill to throw to in 2012. Miami brought in Chad Ochocinco, who was rather unproductive for New England last year. This group may be decent but only if the Dolphin quarterbacks have the time to throw, as Miami allowed 52 sacks last year. Only the Cardinals and the Rams allowed more.

Despite these troubles, the Dolphins still managed to win six of their final nine games last season, firing of Tony Sparano with three games left on the schedule. Moore played well down the stretch in those nine games, bringing a 97.8 Passer Rating along with a 61 percent completion rate to go with his 15 TD passes and only five interceptions. Moore may not be the big name QB that some other teams have, but he put up similarly excellent numbers filling in at Carolina in 2009 when Jake Delhomme was hurt and led the Panthers to a 4-1 finish.

It is glaringly obvious, however, that the brass doesn't look at Moore to be a long-term solution. That is why the risky selection of Tannehill from Texas A&M was made, and Philbin will rely on a very decent defense until they can get their top pick ready for game action.

The defense ranked fifth against the run and has a stout front. That being said, star Cameron Wake has a contract issue and Jason Taylor, who was second in sacks behind Wake, has retired. Miami also let safety Yeremiah Bell walk away rather than pay him what he was due in 2012, largely because of his age (34).

The Dolphins didn't have an outstanding draft, with few names that are looked at as instant starters, and free agency was unimpressive as well. If the Dolphins can pick up where they ended 2011, they could be a .500 team in 2012. That, however, is a very big "could."

The Buffalo Bills once again got their fans all worked up to begin the 2011 season, starting 3-0 including a win over the New England Patriots for the first time in 15 tries. They continued on to a 5-2 record that included a complete demolition of the Washington Redskins in Toronto, 23-0. After that though, the wheels came completely off and the Bills lost seven straight.

The loss in Week 9 to the Jets was bad enough, but they followed that up with an absolute stinker in Dallas where Buffalo was blown out, 44-7. The Bills defense made Tony Romo look like Tom Brady, allowing him to complete 89 percent of his throws for 270 yards and three touchdowns. Ryan Fitzpatrick contributed his own mess with a 46.6 Passer Rating on three interceptions and a 4.7 Yards per Pass number. Buffalo's slide continued, losing four games by three touchdowns or more.

Pass defense was the primary culprit. The unit ranked near the bottom in Defensive QB Rating and Yards per Attempt. Only the Vikings and Buccaneers were worse. The way they went about a quick fix was to sign Mario Williams, one of the bigger names in free agency, to increase pressure and help out the secondary. Along with Marcell Dareus, Mark Anderson, Kyle Williams and a 2012 draft largely dedicated to defense, new defensive coordinator Dave Wannstedt is switching to a base 4-3 to help take the load off the back seven.

Depending on the growth of Fitzpatrick at quarterback, the Bills could have a very good offense in 2012. They were able to run the ball well with Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller, but failed to take advantage of the pair by throwing the ball at a 2:1 ratio over the run. Chan Gailey has had little overall success as an NFL head coach and these irrational ratios fall at his feet. The Bills were uncompetitive within their own division, losing all the rest of their games against AFC East rivals aside from Week 3 win over the Pats.

Buffalo lost Roscoe Parrish to the Chargers and went heavy on defense in the draft, so a .500 record would be considered a good season in upstate New York while the new talent merges with the established players. The Bills paid a ridiculous price to take Williams away from the Texans, so if he doesn't produce early you can expect the boo birds to be at top volume by midseason.

The New York Jets have signaled a desire to return to the "ground and pound" style that was successful for them in 2009 and 2010. They brought in former Miami head coach Tony Sparano to be offensive coordinator and that is what he loves to do, establish the running attack and smash it between the tackles. Part of this could be a reaction to what many believe is a lack of trust in Mark Sanchez with the football in his hands. They better hope that right tackle Wayne Hunter shows some sort of improvement, because he allowed 8.5 sacks and was charged with 11 penalties in 2011, not to mention that he couldn't stop any type of speed rush from the outside.

Tight end Dustin Keller is a good receiver, but doesn't match up well in blocking formations with linebackers or safeties. It will be curious to see what types of formations Sparano and Rex Ryan use Tim Tebow in this year, because the consensus of the New York media seems to be that Tebow will be starting games for the Jets before midseason arrives.

The defense is considered above average still, but they had a very rough time against opposing tight ends and do not do well in man-to-man coverage. The Patriots destroyed them with the two-headed monster of Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez. LaRon Landry was signed as a free agent, but his Achilles situation may not allow him to play a full schedule and several teams passed on him after medical exams.

New York also decided not to re-sign Jim Leonhard after ending the last two seasons on IR. The draft grade before seeing any of their eight overall selections hit the field would have to be a "C" in my opinion, and free agency was nothing special unless offensive tackle Stephon Heyer can hold that line together and help them improve the run game. Otherwise, it is essentially the same core of players that have collapsed under pressure in the past and could conceivably do so again. This could be an emotionally fragile team that is in a state of flux, and if the Sanchez/Tebow experiment blows up in their faces, the entire team could implode with them.

The New England Patriots played in and lost another Super Bowl, basically recreating the same game as in 2007 when they lost to the New York Giants as favorites. The issue always seems to be the same; New England puts up gaudy offensive numbers during the regular season but never are able to duplicate it in postseason play. Brady has posted a Passer Rating of over 100 in only two of his past 10 playoff contests, despite having done so in 24 of his last 32 regular season games.

Outstanding offenses with poor defenses do not succeed in playoff football. The Pats have scored 500+ points three times in the past five years, but have zero rings to show for it. Defense wins championships, and New England seems to have its stop unit exposed annually come playoff time. The Patriots have seemingly brought in marginal starters to fill holes on the defensive side of the ball with the occasional superstar in there somewhere, but the offense is filled with Pro Bowlers on an annual basis. You would think that that would go against the very fiber of head coach Bill Belichick's being, having made his name as a defensive coordinator with the Giants.

Yet while the NFL becomes a passing league, the teams that win championships have enough of a stop unit to slow teams down at crunch time in the biggest of games. The Patriots defense, particularly the secondary, was unable to do that on the road to Super Bowl titles. They lack playmakers on that side of the ball and gave up nearly 5,000 yards through the air last season.

Still, the names that made the splash in the offseason were receivers Brandon Lloyd and Anthony Gonzalez (since released), along with the return of Josh McDaniels as offensive coordinator. Expect another year of huge offensive numbers, but another season without a ring for Mr. Brady. The Patriots are the cream of the AFC East, no doubt, but until they decide to return to the early days of Belichick and Patriots football, this train ride ends before they hoist the Lombardi Trophy again.

**StarDust Bum** · 07-25-2012, 11:45 PM

AFC East Preview

July 16, 2012

The NFL season is sneaking up on us rather quickly with training camp a few weeks ago. We'll take a look at all eight divisions, starting with the AFC East. This division has been owned by the Patriots over the years, as Bill Belichick's club has claimed nine of the last 10 AFC East titles (Dolphins in '08 the only other team to win it). New England came up three points short in the Super Bowl against the Giants, but there's no reason to think the Pats will fail to get to the postseason once again.

The bigger questions that linger within the AFC East are whether the Jets can bounce back from a mediocre season and if Miami and Buffalo can turn into threats this season. The Dolphins are undecided at the starting quarterback position between veteran David Garrard, incumbent Matt Moore, and rookie Ryan Tannehill. The Bills look to dig out of the cellar after a promising start in 2011, while offseason acquisition Mario Williams hopes to beef up a Buffalo defense that allowed an average of 371 yards and 27 points a game.

The Jets picked up the second-biggest storyline as far as a player goes with Tim Tebow heading to New York from Denver. Tebow's mechanics and game can be questioned, but the former Broncos' quarterback led Denver to a division title and a playoff victory over Pittsburgh in the Wild Card round. For betting purposes, the Broncos began 6-1 ATS before stumbling to a 1-5 ATS finish in Tebow's starts. However, Mark Sanchez put together a dreadful 6-10 ATS record as starting quarterback of the Jets last season, including an 0-5 ATS ledger against playoff teams.

We polled several other VegasInsider.com handicappers with their thoughts on the AFC East and if the Patriots can be knocked off the mountain. Brian Edwards believes Bill Belichick's club will come out on top once again in 2012, "Barring a rash of injuries, New England might be favored in every game it plays this season. A potential exception is Week 3 at Baltimore, but the two other toughest non-division games come at home in December against teams that aren't from cold-weather cities (49ers and Texans). I think Tom Brady and Company win the division rather comfortably."

Micah Roberts feels that Buffalo is an undervalued team in this division, "I think the Bills have the talent in place to make a run for the playoffs, but it all hinges on the results of their first two games to kick off the year: vs. Washington in Week 1 and at Minnesota in Week 2. And then hope that momentum carries over into at least a split against Pittsburgh and Detroit."

A slow start for the Bills will no doubt kill their season 'over' play according to Roberts, "The big problem, obviously, will be if starting 1-3. Momentum is everything and starting successful, which I think they will, will be the key to the Bills season. I like the Bills to get OVER 7.5 wins quite easily, which makes it easy deciding on what the other teams will do."

The Dolphins play only one team at home (New England - Week 13) that made the playoffs last season, while drawing the Raiders, Rams, Titans, Seahawks, and Jaguars in South Florida. Miami has an excellent opportunity to finish with 'over' 7 ½ wins, as the Fins lost four games by three points or less last season, while putting together a 6-10 mark. From an ATS perspective, Miami cashed nine of its final 10 games in 2011, while hitting the 'under' in 12 of the last 15 contests. However, it's tough to predict this team's win total when either Garrard, Moore, or Tannehill can be the quarterback this season.

New York will be tested out of the gate, with consecutive road contests at Pittsburgh and Miami (Week 2/3), while hosting division champs San Francisco and Houston in Weeks 4 and 5. The back-end of the schedule for Rex Ryan's squad eases up with only one playoff team from last season (Patriots on Thanksgiving) following a bye in Week 9.

The Patriots don't exactly have an easy road to start the season since the defending AFC Champions will be away from Foxboro in five of its first eight games. Granted the only tough away test is at Baltimore in Week 3, the Pats have to travel to Seattle in Week 6, while heading to London two weeks later to face the Rams. After the bye week in Week 9, the Pats won't leave the Eastern Time Zone the rest of the regular season with road games at the Jets, Dolphins, and Jaguars.

**StarDust Bum** · 07-25-2012, 11:51 PM

AFC North Preview

July 24, 2012

The AFC North turned in three playoff teams last season, but one of them was a complete surprise. The Steelers and Ravens are usually automatic postseason clubs in the AFC, while the Bengals and Browns are just playing it out with young quarterbacks. However, Cincinnati leaped out of the gate with a 6-2 record and the teams' third playoff appearance in Marvin Lewis' nine-year tenure as head coach. The division race seems like the same old story this season with Pittsburgh and Baltimore fighting it out first, while Cincinnati likely places third and Cleveland finishes fourth.

John Harbaugh and the Ravens finally got over the hump to win a division title for the first time in his four years as head coach, while finishing the regular season at 12-4 SU and 8-7-1 ATS. Baltimore is the only team the last four seasons to win at least one playoff game, but the Ravens have failed to get to the Super Bowl during this span. From an ATS standpoint, the Ravens took care of their business against a division opponent by cashing in four of six games, while pulling off a season sweep of the rival Steelers.

Pittsburgh (12-4 SU and 7-9 ATS) is still trying to get over the disappointing Wild Card defeat in overtime at Denver, in spite of a third 12-win campaign in four seasons. The Steelers didn't help backers in 2011 away from Heinz Field by posting a 2-7 ATS record, including an 0-3 ATS ledger when laying points on the highway. Mike Tomlin's defense took care of business at home with a 6-2 mark to the 'under,' while allowing 17 points or less in seven home contests. The Steelers and Ravens don't meet up until Week 11 at Heinz Field (November 18), but then face off again two weeks later in Baltimore.

The Bengals turned heads after Carson Palmer refused to report to the team and had to rely on rookie Andy Dalton. The former TCU standout led Cincinnati to nine victories, including a five-game winning streak from late September through the end of October. Cincinnati also helped out backers by cashing in seven of its first eight contests. The Bengals knocked off plenty of non-playoff teams, but were exposed in four losses to the Steelers and Ravens, while also losing to playoff squads Houston, San Francisco, and Denver in the regular season. There is a good chance the Bengals can start hot, as they face only one team that made the postseason in the first six weeks (at Baltimore - Week 1).

And then there's the Browns. It doesn't sound ultra-convincing, but Cleveland has failed to win more than five games in a season since 2007, when the Browns put together a 10-6 campaign. The Browns tried out Colt McCoy as their quarterback, but the offense never got going by scoring 17 points or less in 14 games. Former Oklahoma State quarterback Brandon Weeden was selected late in the first round of April's draft to help the passing game, while Alabama's Trent Richardson hopes to help out a ground game that finished 28th in the league last season. The only bright spot for the Browns in 2011 came in the underdog role in which Cleveland cashed in six of 10 opportunities, including a 6-1 ATS record in the final seven games.

Several VegasInsider.com handicappers weighed in on this division and some of the responses are very interesting. Bruce Marshall believes there can be a resurgence in northern Ohio this season, "The most intriguing storyline could be written in Cleveland, where the Browns remade their sluggish offense in the offseason. Remember, Cleveland played playoff quality defense last season for coordinator Dick Jauron, and has upgraded the one area that needed a bit of work, the defensive line, with a couple of free agent additions (DE Frostee Rucker and DT Juqua Parker). Most of the significant changes have come on offense, however, where Brad Childress has been enlisted as Pat Shurmur's new O.C., and the Brownies went offense-offense-offense with their first three draft choices, all among the top 37 picks in the draft."

On the south side of Ohio, Micah Roberts says to keep an eye out on the Bengals once again, "The AFC North looks to be the toughest division to figure out with the Bengals being the biggest variable. How they perform this season will ultimately decide the fate of the rest of the division. Last year, we saw the Bengals beat up on a lot of bad teams and struggle against team with winning records. Dalton did a fine job last season with A.J. Green turning into one of the more explosive playmakers in the league, but I'm not sold on their running game, most notably, BenJarvis Green-Ellis."

**StarDust Bum** · 07-25-2012, 11:53 PM

AFC East Outlook

July 25, 2012

The East is the NFL Beast when it comes to conference championship game appearances this new millennium.

With NFL ‘East’ division teams leading the charge with a combined total of 16 games played in conference title tilts since 2000, including a league high six championship game appearances games by squads located in the AFC East, it speaks to the strength of this group.

Like turn signals on an automobile, coaches and ownership are major indicators when determining which direction teams in this division are often headed.

Leading the charge is Mr. Personality himself, Bill Belichick and his New England Patriots. While his persona is creepy, his manhandling of AFC East division foes that are off back-to-back losses is downright sinister, going 22-3 SU and 21-4 ATS in his NFL career in these affairs.

The Jets managed to win 24 games in Rex Ryan’s first two years at the helm. That total was severed to 8 last season as they spent the holidays at home for the first time in Ryan’s tenure. They will need to sweeten a sour 1-7 SU and ATS mark in games off a double-digit loss under Ryan should they look to gain their winning ways.

Meanwhile, Miami’s continue under owner Stephen Ross as the Dolphins are a dismal 9-15 SU and ATS in games at Sun Life Stadium since Ross became majority owner of the squad in 2009. As a result Tony Sparano was dispatched in favor of Joe Philbin as Miami’s new head coach.

And then there’s Buffalo, a team that has enjoyed only one winning season since 1999. Chan Gailey’s 10-22 straight up win-loss record with the Bills put him on the hot seat in 2012.

When it comes to deciding which road to travel with this division, it would serve you well to remember this powerful stat from our database: Since 2000, the AFC EAST division’s 159-107-5 ATS mark away from home in games versus sub .667 opposition, including a sterling 18-5 ATS record in this role when taking eight or more points.

Designated ‘Play On’ and ‘Play Against’ Best Bets follow each team’s preview.

BUFFALO
Team Theme: WANNA TASTE

A defense that has declined each of the last three years – and allowed a league-high 5,938 yards last season – got the message and took major steps to rectify the situation this offseason. New defensive coordinator Dave Wannstedt was brought in to orchestrate a makeover. It started with the signing of pass rushers Mario Williams (Texans) and Mark Anderson (Patriots) and continued with four defensive player selections in the first five rounds of this year’s draft. Additionally, continued improvement from DL Marcell Dareus, the No. 3 overall pick in last year’s draft, is also being anticipated. With the offense making huge strides in yards gained and points scored under head coach Chan Gailey, retaining WR Stevie Johnson was critical to its success. None of it works, however, unless the offense finds a way to better protect Ryan Fitzpatrick, the human piñata playing quarterback. It’s been 12 years since the Bills last had a taste of playoff water, the longest dry spell in the NFL. With the positive offseason moves, fans are drinking the Kool-Aid in Buffalo this year.

PLAY ON: at NY Jets (9/9)

Stat You Will Like: The Bills own four divisional wins the last four seasons.

IN THE STATS: The Bills allowed more than 400 yards in half their games last season.

MIAMI
Team Theme: SHUFFLE THE DECK AND DEAL
To understand the importance Don Shula and Dan Marino had on this franchise, mull this over: since Shula retired in 1995 and Marino in 1999, the Dolphins have had eight head coaches and 16 different starting quarterbacks, while going 1-3 SU and ATS in four playoff games. Talk about a once proud program badly in need of stability. The latest coach is Joe Philbin, most recently OC with Aaron Rodgers and the Packers. The newest quarterback is (take your choice) David Garrard, Matt Moore and/or Ryan Tannehill. Philbin’s new offensive coordinator is Mike Sherman, former head coach with the Packers from 2000-05, and most recently Texas A&M where he worked with Tanneyhill. The backfield features Reggie Bush, Daniel Thomas and rookie speedster Lamar Miller from Miami Florida. On the defensive front, former coordinator Mike Nolan headed off to Atlanta, with Kevin Coyle replacing Nolan’s 3-4 defense with a 4-3. While it’s doubtful Philbin and Tannehill will ever be mentioned in the same breath with Shula and Marino, those are the cards this team has been dealt. Go Fish.

PLAY ON: at Cincinnati (10/7)

Stat You Will Like: The Dolphins host only one team this year that made the playoffs last season.

IN THE STATS: The Dolphins are 11-7 ‘ITS’ in their last 18 road games.

NEW ENGLAND
Team Theme: EASY DOES IT
Last year the Patriots advanced to their 5th Super Bowl in 12 seasons under Bill Belichick (thanks to QB Tom Brady’s 5,235 passing yards) and they came within a whisker of hoisting the trophy despite a defense that was as bad as the offense was good. Through it all, the Pats were rewarded with the softest schedule of all teams this season with 2012’s foes going 116-140 (.452) overall last season. Better news is the return of OC Josh McDaniels, who will be reunited once again with Brady where together they were last seen constructing an NFL record 18-win season in 2007. He’ll work with Pro Bowl WR Wes Welker, record-setting TE Rob Gronkowski and fellow TE Aaron Hernandez. Add newly acquired free agent WR’s Brandon Lloyd and Jabar Gaffney, and the Pats own as lethal a passing attack as the league will allow. With McDaniels on hand, look for Belichick to take a more hands-on approach with the defense. With only one road game against a playoff team this season, the Pats are looking to take an easy road back to the playoffs.

PLAY ON: at Miami (12/2)

Stat You Will Like: Tom Brady is 11-1 SU and ATS as a dog off a loss in his NFL career.

IN THE STATS: The Pats allowed season-high, or 2nd-high, yards to six opponents last season.

NY JETS
Team Theme: NO HARD KNOCKS
After reaching the AFC title game each of the previous two seasons, the Jets were home for the holidays last year. That’s not to say they weren’t in position to attempt the hat-trick as they were the wild-card leader with three weeks remaining in the season before a 0-3 collapse sealed their fate. A big part of the cave-in was a sharp decline in the passing game (QB Mark Sanchez, in particular). Further complicating matters was the decline (38 YPG) of the ground game as opponents generated more rushing attempts than the Jets last year. FYI: Rex Ryan’s teams had 189 and 126 more rushing attempts than the opponent in his first two years with the team. Rex recognized the deficiencies and immediately acquired the services of backup Broncos QB Tim Tebow the day after Peyton Manning tied the knot with Denver. It wasn’t a knock on Sanchez, winked Ryan. Instead, it was the opportunity to address glaring weaknesses and iron out dissension among the ranks. It remains to be seen whether Sanchez or Tebow becomes the big apple, but much like when Adam took the first bite, nothing was the much the same thereafter.

PLAY ON: at Miami (9/23)

Stat You Will Like: The Jets allowed 127 more points last season than they did in Ryan’s first year with the team.

IN THE STATS: The Jets held five foes to season-low, or 2nd-low, yards last season.

**StarDust Bum** · 07-27-2012, 06:45 PM

Buffalo Bills Seek End To Playoff Drought

Remember the Music City Miracle in the 1999 AFC wild card playoff round? Frank Wycheck’s cross-field lateral to Kevin Dyson, who took the ball and ran 75 yards for a kickoff return TD on the final play of the game to allow the Tennessee Titans to score a “miracle” 22-16 win over the Buffalo Bills?

Well, as much as they remember that play in Nashville, they’ve tried hard to forget it in Buffalo. That’s because the Bills have yet to return to the postseason since, the longest current playoff drought in the NFL.

Perhaps “Music City Nightmare” might be more appropriate in referencing that unforgettable play in Buffalo’s mind.

We can’t say the Bills aren’t trying to turn things around and get back to the postseason, as GM Buddy Nix and head coach Chan Gailey endured a very active offseason which saw Buffalo emerge as a major player in the free-agent sweepstakes. Moreover, if analysts are to be believed, the Bills might have fared better than any in the April NFL Draft.

Thus, enthusiasm is hardly in short supply on the Niagara frontier. Whether that turns into disappointment again in December remains to be seen.

Las Vegas wagering outlets have reportedly been taking more 'over' action on the Bills’ season win total which has floated between 7-7½ wins, depending upon the sports book. As noted on the DonBest.com NFL odds page, future spreads on early-season games, such as the opener at the Jets, have also moved in Buffalo’s direction over the summer. Originally posted as a 6-point favorite, most outlets now have the Jets laying 3½ or 4 points in the 2012 regular-season kickoff on September 9.

Last season was a tale of two campaigns for Buffalo, which rushed from the gate to a 5-2 start with a collection of thrilling wins (including the first over Bill Belichick’s Patriots since 2003), and only a pair of losses, each of those by a mere three points.

But just when our favorite local TV celeb, Maria Gennaro, and other Buffalonians were making playoff plans for the first time in a dozen years, the roof caved in...completely so. The Bills lost eight of their last nine games and in the process allowed a whopping 5,938 yards and 434 points, each the most ever permitted in franchise history.

Considering some of the bad teams in Buffalo’s past, including those coached by Harvey Johnson, Jim Ringo, Hank Bullough, and Mike Mularkey, that defensive low-water mark is ignominious indeed.

As for Gailey, suspicions that he might not be up to the task are a favorite topic on Bills chat rooms and blogs. Although we think Gailey has always received a bit of a bad rap, as his two years as head coach in Dallas are often confused with Dave Campo’s subsequent regime, which fared far worse, in an era in which Jerry Jones was hitting eject buttons on his coaches as George Steinbrenner once did with the Yankees. Gailey also didn’t do too badly at subsequent stop Georgia Tech, enjoying modest success before the Yellow Jackets began to regress late in his Atlanta tenure.

But last season’s developments are a red flag for Gailey’s critics, who suspect that the introverted mentor lacks the fire to ignite a team when the going gets tough, as it certainly did a year ago when injuries decimated the roster and the team collapsed in the second half of the season.

Obviously, defensive upgrades were the first order of business in the offseason. Veteran coach Dave Wannstedt, who has always fared better in an assistant’s role than a head coaching one in his career, was promoted from LB coach to defensive coordinator after last year’s coordinator George Edwards had to walk the plank after last season’s stop unit meltdown.

But it was on the personnel side where the Bills made their biggest moves in the offseason. Beyond Peyton Manning, Houston DE Mario Williams might have been the top prize of this year’s free-agent class, and the Bills lured him to orchard Park with a high-priced, multi-year deal. Ex-Patriots DE Mark Anderson also enlisted, and the two bring an immediate upgrade to what was an anemic pass rush that generated only 29 sacks last term; Williams and Anderson have 88½ career sacks between them in their young careers.

The Bills also went for “D” at the top of the draft when tabbing South Carolina CB Stephon Gilmore with the tenth pick in the first round. Gilmore, rated alongside LSU’s Morris Claiborne as the top available corner in the draft, is expected to step right into the starting role on the right side, opposite Aaron Williams.

Buffalo added more intriguing defensive pieces later in the draft, selecting mobile Florida State LB Nigel Bradham and LSU CB Ron Brooks (considered a huge sleeper by many) each in the fourth round, while adding TCU LB Tank “Mr. Intangible” Carder in the fifth round. All could make contributions this fall.

The upside looks considerable for the platoon, especially with the DL appearing as if it could be overwhelming with the new additions at the end spots and the potential at defensive tackle. First of all, however, Wannstedt has to make sure DT Kyle Williams is back to 100 percent after foot surgery curtailed his 2011 participation. Then, second-year DT Marcell Dareus, the No. 3 pick in the entire 2011 draft, has to continue his maturation process after playing only in fits and spurts last fall.

Still, let’s not forget how this stop unit disappeared a year ago. All of the newcomers, plus holdovers such as Dareus, Shawne Merriman and Nick Barnett, have to mesh, while a rejuggled secondary now featuring a rookie at the corner must upgrade.

Whatever improvements the Bills make on defense might not matter, however, if the offense misfires as it did in the last half of 2011. Injuries, especially along the OL, didn’t help down the stretch last fall, but QB Ryan Fitzpatrick’s effectiveness waned so considerably in the latter stages that Buffalo backers are no longer confident they have finally found their QB.

Fitzpatrick’s numbers during the second half of the season confirmed the meltdown, with 17 picks over those last nine games after the quick start. By the time the smoke cleared, Fitzpatrick had tossed an NFL-worst 23 interceptions in 2011.

More disturbing to the blue-collar Bills backers is that Fitzpatrick’s performances began to head south almost immediately after signing a huge contract extension. Several AFC East sources considered that big-money deal to be ridiculously premature, given that Fitzpatrick had delivered big numbers in only a handful of games.

Still, the ex-Harvard man enters 2012 as “the man” at QB. Ex-Titan and Eagle Vince Young has been added as an alternative, with journeyman Tyler Thigpen also still in the picture should Fitzpatrick continue his downward spiral.

But during the first half of 2011, the Bills were percolating, and their final stats which include drastic leaps in yards gained (from 25th to 14th) and scoring (from 28th to 14th) suggests there is real potential within the strike force and that longtime offensive mastermind Gailey has an idea what to do on the attack end.

There are some weapons in the Buffalo arsenal. Keeping RBs Fred Jackson and C.J. Spiller healthy might prove a challenge, but each gained better than five yards per carry in 2011. Re-signing WR Stevie Johnson, who caught a team-best 76 passes last season, was crucial. The Bills were so enamored of NC State rookie wideout T.J. Graham that they traded up to nab him in the third round.

Still, it was no coincidence that the offense commenced its downturn last fall when the OL began to have injury problems. In particular, key C Scott Wood, without whom the Bills struggled in 2011 and whose full recovery from serious ACL surgery is not guaranteed. It is hoped that second-round pick Cordy Glenn from Georgia will at the least provide improved depth, while at the most emerging as a solid and dependable starter for years to come.

Of course, the Bills’ pointspread efforts mirrored their straight-up pattern from a year ago, with the first half of the season positive, and the second half negative. Buffalo dropped seven of its last nine vs. the number after covering five of its first seven. Despite the late fade, Gailey still managed spread covers in six of 10 as an underdog.

Still, if the Bills can stay healthy on offense and get Fitzpatrick back in gear, pointspread dynamics in the fall could be similar to the first half of last season. With ample firepower, Buffalo could again provide interesting value once more in the underdog role.

Conversely, the Bills were a very unreliable favorite last season, dropping five of six spread decisions as chalk. Buffalo is also just 2-7 as a favorite since 2010.

Defensive shortcomings resulted in a 10-6 'over' mark, but the first reaction regarding totals in 2012 is that any stop unit upgrades might change that dynamic. If Williams, Anderson and Gilmore indeed help the “D” as much as some might expect, Buffalo might not be involved in as many shootouts as it was a year ago.

As mentioned earlier, the Bills’ season-win total has been seeing some buy action on the 'over' as the total has risen from seven to 7½ at some Las Vegas sports books. Apparently the majority of customers have chosen to overlook Buffalo’s (and Fitzpatrick’s) late-season fade from a year ago; we’re not sure we would do the same.

Summary: Because of the quick start last season and apparent significant upgrades made by the defense in the offseason, we are hardly about to write off the Bills as a potential factor this fall. But Fitzpatrick’s credentials as a playoff-worthy QB are still rather dubious, and for all of the defensive upgrades the Bills might have made, they won’t matter if Fitzpatrick struggles as he did the last half of 2012. And while the AFC East might not look quite as menacing with the Jets fading back to the pack and Miami in rebuild mode, note that Buffalo has also won just two of 12 division games the past two years.

We’ll watch the Bills closely, but we’re also not about to get carried away. At least not yet.

**StarDust Bum** · 07-27-2012, 06:47 PM

Miami Dolphins To Bring Up AFC East Rear

They’ve been trying to recreate the early ‘70s in Miami for the past four decades. Can it be that long ago since Don Shula was winning Super Bowls with the Dolphins?

Post-Shula, however, Miami has found the winning recipe to be quite elusive. The fact the era also roughly coincided with Dan Marino’s retirement has been another factor in a mostly-forgotten decade-plus of Dolphins football.

Jimmy Johnson, Dave Wannstedt, Nick Saban, Cam Cameron and Tony Sparano have all tried and failed to recreate the Shula magic in South Florida. Now Joe Philbin, most recently the offensive coordinator for the Green Bay Packers, gives it a stab as the 10th head coach (including a couple of interims) in the franchise’s history that began as an AFL expansion franchise in 1966.

Expectations are rather optimistic in Miami despite the Dolphins’ 6-10 finish a year ago. The AFC East doesn’t appear to be quite as menacing these days, especially with the Jets loaded with trip wires and the Bills still struggling to gain traction. Which might be why most Las Vegas sports books have posted the Miami 2012 win total at 7½, with many bettors not blinking before casting their 'over' preference. The DonBest.com odds screen already has posted a number on the Dolphins’ September 9 opener at Houston, with the Texans installed as an early 7-point favorite.

Philbin made sense as the culmination of the Miami head coaching search after last season, mainly because of his offensive credentials from his decorated stint on the Packers staff. Philbin is also considered a sage play-caller and QB tutor after helping Aaron Rodgers achieve greatness in such a short period of time at Lambeau Field.

He has never been a head coach at any level, however, and the list of high-profile coordinators who have failed as head coaches is long and distinguished. As usual, we’re taking a wait-and-see attitude before considering Philbin the right man for the job at Sun Life Stadium.

Philbin insists he is not rebuilding anything in Miami, and the Dolphins did close with a rush last season, winning six of their last nine games. The only problem was that the uptick occurred after Miami broke 0-7 from the gate.

Offensive woes were the main problem a year ago; among other things, inconsistent work along the line proved problematic in protecting Dolphin QBs, who were sacked 52 times.

Philbin’s first order of business is to install an up-tempo West Coast offense similar to the one he coordinated in Green Bay. Finding a pilot to fly the new plane, however, figures to extend throughout the preseason.

Miami took its first step in its remake at the April Draft when tabbing Texas A&M’s QB Ryan Tannehill as its first-round selection. Tannehill had moved up the draft boards dramatically in the preceding weeks after further impressing in the pre-draft workouts. A one-time WR at A&M, Tannehill seems to possess the athletic intangibles necessary to succeed in the NFL. Whether the fundamentals and other factors develop as needed remains to be seen.

It is also regarded as a plus that Tannehill’s former A&M coach, Mike Sherman, is also Philbin’s new offensive coordinator. The Philbin version of the West Coast is similar to what Sherman was running at College Station. The adjustment phase for Tannehill, goes the thought, might be smoother because of these unique dynamics.

Still, many AFC East scouts believe that Miami can win with holdover Matt Moore at QB as the Dolphins did late last season when Moore proved a better option than Chad Henne, whose injury problems ironically triggered a mild turnaround with Moore at the control. Moore passed for 2427 yards with 16 TDs and 9 picks a year ago and became more comfy at the controls as the season progressed.

But the QB derby remains undecided, as not only did Miami add Tannehill, but also added veteran free agent David Garrard, who figures to compete for the job in August as well.

A development to monitor is Tannehill’s contract status, which had yet to be resolved at the end of July. Tannehill missed the start of training camp and would figure to have to be in the fold soon if he has designs on the starting role for the opener at Houston.

Several AFC East observers, however, believe that Philbin will likely go with Moore until Tannehill is ready, with Garrard as a fall-back option. Stay tuned for further developments.

Whoever is in the lineup at QB will have plenty of skilled weaponry to utilize...at least in the running game. Reggie Bush experienced a long-overdue breakout campaign in 2011 when rushing for 1,086 yards, and 2nd-year ex-Kansas State RB Daniel Thomas flashed plenty of upside last fall when gaining another 581 yards Explosive Miami Hurricanes rookie Lamar Miller, a 4th-round draft choice, adds another dimension to the infantry.

More serious questions offensively have to do with the receiving corps and the forward wall. In particular the former, which looks to lack a game-breaking threat after Brandon Marshall (who led Dolphins receivers by a wide margin last year when catching 81 passes) was traded to the Bears. The late-spring addition of Chad Johnson, formerly Ochocinco, who from all indications is past his sell-by date, appears a desperate roll of the dice. Holdovers Davone Bess and Brian Hartline certainly lack the home run dimension Marshall provided.

Meanwhile, the offensive line, nicked by injuries a year ago, remains filled with questions. Sources say the line lacks top-flight athleticism, and might not have the sort of mobility that Philbin prefers for his zone-blocking schemes. Although LT Jake Long and C Mike Pouncey are solid, the entire right side of the line is undergoing another rebuild. For what seems like an eternity, the Miami offensive line again remains a work in progress.

Philbin, however, does inherit a capable defense from the previous regime. Miami’s stingy defense ranked sixth in points allowed a year ago, and prospects are encouraging for continuing that pattern.

Still, some adjustments are being made, and new defensive coordinator Kevin Coyle will be switching the Dolphins to a 4-3 base from their previous 3-4 looks. The most important offseason development was retaining Pro Bowl NT Paul Soliai, who will anchor from a more-traditional DT spot this fall.

Coyle, however, might be asking a lot of 3rd-round draftee Olivier Vernon, another former Miami Hurricane but already penciled into a starting role opposite Cameron Wake, who has 28 sacks the past three seasons.

Coyle is also hoping that the alignment modifications will help to better unleash the potential of LBs Karlos Dansby and Kevin Burnett, who each recorded 100-plus tackles last year but whose ceilings suggest more upside is possible.

Meanwhile, although 4th-year CBs Vontae Davis and Sean Smith have collectively matured into a pair of competent corners, and the FA addition of CB Richard Marshall provides extra options, especially in nickel looks. There are, however, some questions at the safety spots, especially at free safety where someone has to emerge to complement emerging SS Reshad Jones.

Special teams-wise, the Dolphins have Pro Bowl-caliber kickers in P Brandon Fields and PK Dan Carpenter, but the return units have lacked pizzazz in recent years.

The Dolphins developed several extremely interesting spread patterns in the Sparano years, including a year ago when their spread performance (not surprisingly) reflected their straight-up pattern that reversed at midseason; Miami was 7-1 vs. the line its last nine games in 2011 after covering just one of its first six outings.

Sparano’s Miami was also one of those rare “inside-out” teams that performed better vs. the line on the road than at home. Over the past two seasons, the Dolphins posted an eye-opening 12-4 spread mark away from Sun Life Stadium but were just 5-10-1 vs. the mark at home. Correspondingly, Miami was 13-7 as an underdog and just 3-8-1 as chalk.

With the recent inconsistencies on offense, and the solid defense, it was also no surprise that Miami recorded a 12-4 'under' mark last season, and is 'under' 16-5 in its last 21 games since late in the 2010 campaign. Philbin’s arrival, and his offensive emphasis, could change those dynamics.

Summary: Perhaps Philbin is right; maybe Miami isn’t in a rebuilding phase, as the Dolphins were playing playoff-quality football for the last half of the 2011 campaign. But we’re not sure the uptick continues into this fall with Philbin and his new staff making several adjustments and hardly endorsing Matt Moore, under whom the Dolphins won down the stretch last season, as the starting QB. The thought persists that whether it be Moore or Garrard at QB, either is simply holding the position until Tannehill is ready. But if Tannehill gets on the field this fall, it’s probably because the Dolphins are not progressing into the playoff mix. And whoever is at QB will be looking over their shoulder.

There are other issues at the receiver spots and along the line on the offensive side and the defense, while good, probably can’t carry the team to the playoffs. We suspect we’ll have a better read on the direction of the Philbin Dolphins at this time next summer.

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The Bum's 2012 Preview Of NFL Teams !

The Bum's 2012 Preview Of NFL Teams !

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